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Weekly Stock Market Report

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May 27, 2018 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 05, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

  

Societal Problems and A Lack Luster Stock Market Bull

Turning on the television and listening to commentators talk about this and that is solid proof of societal decline. Anthropologists would refer to this as devolution. Face Book was at one time, where you could put your photo on the cloud and share information to your pals and family. Now, Face Book and the geeky lunatics who run it, editorialize content. People glued to Face Book all the time are dumbing down themselves, unless communicating to relatives or friends about small stuff.

 

Software has deteriorated the past 15-years as it has moved from assisting people’s productivity to “entertaining” people. Entertaining is certainly a marketing additive, but everyone posting their photos onto the cloud do not understand that 10 to 15-generations from now their photoes will be considered irrelevant. Those files will most likely be deleted in the same manner that Hillary Clinton deletes email, despite being subpoenaed by your elected representatives.

 

Fidelity Leisure, MF#49-(Chart) has been moving bullishly ever since the last bear market in 2007-08. Leisure, one can suppose, is always in high demand. Traveling to Orlando, you will see thousands of people enjoying leisure. Overhearing them speak, you can tell most could not pass an eighth-grade algebra test. How is it that stupid people have the time to find leisure?

 

Perhaps the cure will result in simply not feeding the dumb. Fidelity Food and Agriculture, MF#43-(Chart) is losing capital capacity for future expansion. Although this fund is depressed, in part, from international trade tensions, the loss of capital for future expansions threatens the food supply in this country. Not meaning to raise alarm bell, but this is similar to what happened after the Smoot-Hawley trade tariffs. Food is a basic human need and foreigners are not buying as much as before. Although the leaders of countries always eat well, they use the hunger of their people for conscription purposes and then blame the rest of the world for their hunger. That cycle has been repeated several times before, but historical knowledge is not transferred via DNA to the next generation. Since everyone is born with an empty brain, the cycle of feast-famine will always repeat until the educational system is improved to “enlighten” those empty brains. Of course, to do that, one must first understand eight-grade algebra because the laws of supply and demand require that, along with an honest understanding of human nature, as opposed to a politburo influence on human beings.

 

In 2012, a small, but sophisticated, manufacturing company in the Detroit area was running a one-shift operation. That company had an eighteen-month backlog. Its customers expected a six-week delivery from time of placing their purchase orders to shipment. It is impossible to ship orders faster than the backlog of orders. The management of that company did not know it. When it was explained to them, they finally understood. Once they understood, they were asked, “why are you only running one shift in the Detroit area with unemployment over 20% and with such a huge backlog of orders. They explained that had found that training good machinist was impossible if they did not understand eighth-grade algebra. So, they had all applicants take an eighth-grade algebra test. Only three out of over eight-hundred applicants passed that test.

 

Back to those commentators on television who are constantly orating nonsensicality. Advertisers pay money between their nonsensical orations. Therefore, people must be watching it and actually believing it. Stupidity should be outlawed. In today’s society, adults who cannot pass an 8th grade algebra test should not be allowed to vote, or breed more like them.

 

LBJ’s Great Society backfired. That governmental intervention created millions of dumb people. Of course, nearly all governmental interventions backfire. They always have and always will. Despite that fact, governments keep on interfering.

 

Productivity oriented software is deteriorating as there is more focus on “entertainment software.” Contemporary use of software is no longer helping people be more productive. On the contrary, it is counter-productive by its distracting nature and nonsensicality. Productivity-oriented software is becoming less reliable with all the talent invested in “entertainment” software.

 

The left is wanting to control just about everything. Here are a few suggestions: If you cannot pass an eighth-grade algebra test you cannot do the following: vote, drive a vehicle, be a commentator on television, own a gun, run for public office, or dress in regular clothes. The last one means everyone failing an eighth-grade algebra test over the age of 18-years old would have to wear an orange jump suit so that other human beings would be warned to avoid them, as there would be zero productive output from engaging with them.

 

The stock market bull is having difficulty gaining traction with continuing bombardment of stupid people believing other stupid people that it is a good thing to impeach the president of the United States. Success at that would accelerate the movement to communism at a much faster clip than in the past fifty years. Communistic success would result in all major indices being at zero. The stock market bull does not find that potential very appealing. The problem for those desiring membership in the politburo is guns. The politburo wannabes know they need to confiscate them before enjoying the caviar at your expense.

 

On the positive side, the democratic party is losing momentum in the polls. If that trend continues, the stock market bull will rejoice and move onward and upward, but within the confines of interest rates, inflation or deflation.

 

One other note. The Dow Jones Utility Index-(Chart) rebounded solidly after last week’s Mid-term Indicant bear signal. The ten major indices were up by an average of 0.9% while the DJU was up a whopping 3.3%. It is generally (not always) non-bearish when the short-cycle green curve serves as a bouncing point from strong bearishness. Interestingly, all major indices were bullish last week. The DJU did not earn a new bull signal despite its strong bullishness. There are still problems to overcome, as its force vector is in bearish domains below vector pressure with both force and pressure bearishly directed.   

 

The next section highlights the current condition of the stock market.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 9-Red Bulls, 1-Non-Red Bulls

            Comment: Red Bull unanimity remains absent with the Dow Utilities-(Chart) persisting below the bullish red curve. The major indices, including non-Red Bulls, are now above bullish red by an average of 7.9%. A drop by that amount in the markets, overall, would be required before considering recent bearishness as serious.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 4-Blue Bull, 6-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: Blue bulls improved from one last week to four this past week. A majority of six blue bulls is highly desirable at this time by the stock market bull. On average, the ten major indices are below their respective blue curves by 1.0%. The stock market bull desires that average be above blue bull values.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: None of the major indices are threatening on becoming a Yellow Bear. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 31.0% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance. The gap between prevailing prices and the Yellow Bear is too wide to be considered where the next bear signals will occur. Currently, losing Red Bull status is where the next bear signals will occur with the exception of the DJU and DJT, where Green is still below Red.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

                Comment: Overall, the major indices are above Green by 7.4%. At this point bear signals are not to be considered until the market falls another 7.9%, which is the distance to the bullish red curves. In other words, Green Bears will occur before Red Bulls expire and thus the expiration of Red Bulls will trigger Mid-term Indicant bear signals with the exception of the DJU and DJT.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): Two Reds Higher than Green; Eight Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: This attribute continues identifying an overheated bull market. The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) are the only two major indices where Green has not crossed above Red. Red remains below Green, on average for all ten major indices, by 0.4%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 9-bullish domains, 1-bearish domains

                Comment: This deteriorated by one from all ten being in bullish domains last week. Even though the Dow Utilities was strongly bullish last week, its force vector fell into bearish domains.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 9-above pressure, 1-below pressure

                Comment: Force vectors returned to favoring the stock market bull on April 22, 2018 and continue to do so. This position no longer supports stock market non-bullishness.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

                Comment: Vector pressure improved with all ten again residing in bullish domains. That is a significant improvement from just four weeks ago when vector pressure was unanimous in its support of the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 9-bullish, 1-bearish

                Comment: The lone bearish one is the Dow Utilities. The other nine major indices are enjoying their alliance with the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 9-bullish, 1-bearish

            Comment: As long as a majority remain with bullish direction, the stock market bear can only pester, but not dominate.

 

mClick this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: As stated for several months, the prevailing Red Bull population minimizes the potential for deep and long-lasting stock market bearishness. Most Mid-term Indicant attributes continue configuring with bullish support, but with a narrow majority in doing so.

 

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.

 

 

Micron Tech, NAS#78-MU-(Chart), was up 14.9% last week, as the most bullish NASDAQ100 stock. It is also up 277.5% since the Indicant’s Aug 2016 buy signal. Continue holding this solid Red Bull. Ross Stores was the most bearish NASDAQ100 stock, NAS#79-ROST-(Chart), falling 6.2% last week. Despite its humility last week, the stock has performed very nicely for you, rising 954.8% since the Indicant’s Dec 2008 buy signal. Continue holding this solid Red Bull.

 

Integrated, ISTK#79-IDTI-(Chart), was the most bullish stock in this group of stocks last week increasing by 7.1%. It is also up 434.6% since the Indicant’s Nov 2012 buy signal. Continue holding this solid Red Bull. Nabors was the most bearish in this group, ISTK#67-NBR-(Chart), dropping by 12.4%. This stock has endured difficulties participating in the micro bullish rally. It is down 28.6% since the Indicant’s May 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this solid Yellow Bear.

 

Intel, DJIA#26-INTC-(Chart), was the best performing Dow30 stock last week, increasing by 3.6%. It is also up 162.0% since the Indicant’s Jan 2013 buy signal. Continue holding this solid Red Bull. Chevron, DJIA#13-CVX-(Chart), was the worse performing Dow30 stock last week, falling by 4.4%. However, it is up 20.0% since the Indicant’s May 2016 buy signal. Continue holding this Red Bull despite its anemic configurations.

 

Public Enterprise, DJU#10-PEG-(Chart), was up 5.4% last week, as the most bullish Dow Utility stock. It is also up 68.7% since the Indicant’s Jan 2013 buy signal. This stock resumed Red Bull status with a very strong bullish trend that should continue to be held. Williams Co, DJU#11-WMB-(Chart), was the most bearish Dow Utility stock last week, falling 2.9%. It is also down 5.9% since the Indicant’s Feb 2018 sell signal. This stock has been struggling for over two years and more interactive with its bearish yellow curve than other positions. With that, continue avoiding.

 

Fidelity Elect, MF#38-FSELX-(Chart), was the most bullish mutual fund last week, rising 4.5%. It is also up 238.2% since the Indicant’s Jul 2009 buy signal. This fund nudged upward last week, regaining Red Bull status. Its bullish trend is currently undeniable. Fidelity Energy Services, MF#40-FSESX-(Chart), was the most bearish, falling sharply by 7.0%. It is also down 2.1% since the Indicant’s Apr 2018 buy signal. This fund is slow to participate in rising fuel costs. If the current energy rally is real and persists, this fund will perform very well.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Ten Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past ten years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated one buy signal and one sell signal this weekend. Clicking this sentence will display them on the website.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 246 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 224.2% that annualizes to 45.5%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 246-stocks and funds for an average of 256.5-weeks. There have been 33-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 73-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 15.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 84.1-weeks ago. There have been 57-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on May 26, 2017 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 252-stocks and funds of the 301-tracked for an average of 215.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 189.7% (annualized at 45.9%). There were 45-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 22.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 100.8-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were two buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 24-buy signals and 20-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2017.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 210-stocks on May 27, 2016. They were up 155.2% since their buy signals an average of 211.9-weeks earlier. There were 124-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 64.7-weeks earlier. There were four buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There had been 36-buy signals and 68-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. Polls favored Hillary Clinton throughout most of that year’s election cycle. That confronted the stock market bull and encouraged the stock market bear. Presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, once said she would take corporate profits and do something better with the money was not only laughable, but seriously confronted the stock market bull.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 291-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on May 29, 2015. They were up by an average of 151.5%, annualizing at 39.4%, since their respective buy signals an average of 200.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 41-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 16.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 75.0-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and four sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There were 22-year-to-date buy signals and 28-sell signals at this time of year in 2015. This presidential pre-election year was somewhat uneventful and tame, following unusually strong post-election year bullishness in 2013 and a flat 2014-mid-term presidential election year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 311-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on May23, 2014. They were up by an average of 116.4%, annualizing at 37.4%, since their respective buy signals an average of 161.9-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 23-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 24.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 67.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2014. There had been a total of 15-buy signals and 19-sell signals through this weekend in 2014.

 

There were 307-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on May 24, 2013 since their buy signals an average of 119.6-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 85.0% (annualized at 37.0%). There were 27-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 28.2% from their respective sell signals an average of 63.7-weeks earlier. There were four buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2013. There had been 60-buy signals and 29-sell signals through this weekend in 2013. This was an impressively bullish year, as sequestration inspired the stock market bull along an accelerated growth plane. Although sequestered spending was minimal, the underlying principles of handcuffing the irrationality of politicians inspired the stock market bull.

 

On May 25, 2012, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 230-stocks and funds out of 335-tracked. They were up by an average of 77.3% (annualized at 40.8%) since their buy signals an average of 98.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 100-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 13.1% since their sell signals an average of 40.8-weeks earlier. There were five buy signals and three-sell signals on this weekend in 2012. There had been 82-buy signals and 80-sell signals through this weekend in 2012.

 

On May 27, 2011, there were 296-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 335-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 54.8%, annualizing at 43.8% since their respective buy signals an average of 65.1-weeks earlier. There were 36-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 42.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 109.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2011. There had been 18-buy signals and 15-sell signals through this weekend in 2011.

 

On May 28, 2010, there were 209-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 316-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 29.2% annualizing at 31.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 48.5-weeks earlier. There were 107-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 18.1% since their sell signals an average of 74.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2010, totaling 34-buy signals and 36-sell signals through this weekend in 2010. The stock market shifted to strong bullishness in August 2010 at the obviation of democrats losing the House of Representatives. This is an example of the stock market’s ability to “anticipate,” as opposed to being reactionary to the “news.”

 

There were 21-stocks and funds with hold signals on May 29, 2009. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 344-stocks and funds at that time. Those with hold signals were up by an average of 124.8%, annualizing at 65.7%, since their buy signals an average of 98.6-weeks earlier. The 322-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 27.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 51.6-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. There had been ten buy signals and 20-sell signals through this weekend in 2009.

 

On May 23, 2008, there were 213-stocks and funds with hold signals, enjoying an average gain of 143.5% since their respective buy signals an average of 125.7-weeks earlier. That annualized at 59.4%. There were 345-stocks and funds tracked at that time. There were 130-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 18.5% since their sell signals an average of 31.5-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2008. There had been 97-year-to-date buy signals and 126-YTD sell signals through this weekend in 2008. This was the year of the great stock market crash, as phony political leadership do what they do. And then their little, but selfish, three-pound brains, blame the crash on big business and capitalism, despite them being 100% responsible for the fiasco. The stock market bear was accelerating its dominance in early 2008 with a few false bounces from phony governmental interventions and the profound stupidity from their “too big to fail” paradigm. Delaying the inevitable only worsens its magnitude at the “real” conclusion of stupidity’s chaos.

           

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying and selling have been limited for the past few years, as the bull’s perseverance has prevented a bear market for quite some time. That reduces the number of stocks in temporary decline to earn new buy signals since they are enjoying hold signals. Although Mid-term attributes are not strongly bullish, the stock market bear has been unable to gain traction with only minor pestering the past nine years. It is very possible for that to continue for seven to nine more years but being challenged by very strong bear friendly political fundamentals. The fundamental threat of trade wars confronts a relaxed posture toward the stock market bull. Equally confronting basic economics is the political elite’s desire to shift representative government to a politburo form of government. In other words, your vote is meaningless, while the politically minded so-called elite desire to control who your ruler is. Freedom has never been a gift. It has always been earned, but every six to ten generations, it is usually lost again.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

   

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 239.7% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 567.2% and the S&P500 is up 250.3% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 488.4% since October 9, 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was bearish by 8.9% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.

 

The NASDAQ was down 14.8% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was up 12.9% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 5.3% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

 

It was down 5.8% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.

           

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 0.7% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.  

 

The NASDAQ was up 5.1% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.

 

The NASDAQ was down by 7.1% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.

                       

It was up 7.3% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

 

The NASDAQ was down 2.6% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.

 

It was up 4.1% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.

           

The NASDAQ was up 9.0% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  

 

It was up 14.6% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  

           

The NASDAQ was down 0.5% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it, but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.

.                                                                                                                                                                      

The NASDAQ was up 7.5% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.

           

The NASDAQ was down 1.9% in on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the obvious president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.

 

The NASDAQ was up 15.3% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up by 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.1% this year. The S&P500 is up 1.8% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 7.7% this year. The S&P600 is up 7.3% this year.  The Dow Transports is up 2.7% this year, while the most bearish, Dow Utilities, is down 4.7% this year.

 

The Dow is up 74.8% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 160.0% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is          up 73.9% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.

 

All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 24.7%.

 

The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 47.2%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is again above that peak by 48.0%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 43.5%.

 

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

 

The Dow is up 278.1% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 486.0% and the S&P500 is up 302.2% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 452.6% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive, but recent rate hikes offer some arguments against being passive.           

 

The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition.

 

The reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI is no longer mildly threatening. Always keep in mind, publicly generated information can be biased for political purposes, as opposed to simply publishing accurate information. The manifestation of “making America great again” can be inflationary. However, a simplified tax code could be offsetting to that threat. Tariffs and trade wars add to the inflationary threat, plus additional social threats.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased 25-basis points on week-ending Mar 23, 2018, following similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, and Dec 15, 2017. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections.  Rates remain at low levels and thus not yet impeding economic growth. They are becoming more aggressive, however, and possibly too slow and low to fend off inflation. Oil prices are up over 20% from this time a year ago.

 

The Federal Reserve’s Quarter 2, 2017 promise of being passive on rate hikes remains as being challenged with noticeable increases in interest rates. The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull, despite recent rate hike aggression. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. Strong stock market bearishness on week-ending March 23, 2018 suggests the future may now be here. If the Fed slows future rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be unfriendly to the stock market bull.

 

The Euro lost Red Bull status on week-ending May 18, 2018. The prevailing bearish trend started shifting bullishly for the first time in about nine years in early March 2018 like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of bearishly trending. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.18 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.43. The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned to the neutral zone in late October 2017. Despite all that movement it remains in the zone of neutrality since its weakening above Yellow in Sep 2017.  Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values exceeding $2.12CA to $1.90CA.

           

The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 156-169-Yen/U.S. dollar. It shifted from the zone of neutrality to strengthening in late Feb 2018 and continues residence there with some recent steadying. It strengthens when falling below Yellow. The British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull Status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency. It continues enjoying Red Bull status, while stuck in a tight trading range. It lost Red Bull status on week-ending May 11, 2018 by falling into the zone of neutrality. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.32 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.81-$0.83 by Dec 31, 2020.

 

The Bitcoin toppled $16,000 on most exchanges in late 2017 in skyrocketing fashion. It has weakened since then. It lost Red Bull status in late Mar/early Apr 2018. Even though it has declined it remains in the zone of neutrality, while hovering above $8,000 the past few weeks. It is holding steady even though mildly bearish last week.

                       

Gold regained Red Bull status on Jan 16, 2018, but dipped slightly below Red on week-ending May 11, 2018 and since remaining in the zone of neutrality. Prevailing interest rates remain low, despite their recent hikes, and the corresponding weak dollar is encouraging bullish potential for gold. At some point, rising rates will strengthen the dollar, influencing gold’s bearishness. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,298/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $696-707/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 2017 and continuing bullishly since then. Its rise is congruent with inflationary themes going forward. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $52/bbl. This mean forecast is now no longer declining for the first time in over five years as of early 2018. Saudi Royalty is most likely targeting $90/BBL for the time being.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures regained Red Bull status on Nov 23, 2017 after succumbing to the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 10, 2017. It is again displaying inflation, but mildly so, holding onto its Red Bull status since mid-February 2018. The 2020 mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020.

 

Mortgage rates abandoned Yellow Bear status on Nov 3, 20 16 with a sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not for those desiring home ownerships. On Nov 25, 2016, it lost that Red Bull status. Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status in early March 2018 with momentum in their bullish configurations and continues skyrocketing.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.         

 

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. It is down 6.3% since then.

 

Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also enjoyed a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. It is down 8.3% since then. The above Vanguard fund usually outperforms this one.

 

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Oct 13, 2017 and up 8.2% since then, annualizing at 13.2%.

 

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, enjoyed a buy signal on Apr 27, 2018. It is down 2.1% since then.

 

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, enjoyed a buy signal on Apr 13, 2018. It is up 6.5% since then, annualizing at 55.8%.

 

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Dec 29, 2017 and up 6.4% since then, annualizing at 15.6%.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Apr 9, 2018. It is up 10.2% since then, annualizing at 79.9%.

           

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant again signaled buy for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Dec 22, 2017. It is up 1.9% since then, annualizing at 4.4%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signal and no new bear signals.    

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for nine of the ten of the major indices. The existing bulls are up by an average of 46.0% since their bull signals an average of 113.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 21.1%.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $67.931-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.711-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.404-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.603-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.098-million. That beats buy and hold’s $743,385 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $37.837-million. That is better than buy and hold $780.415 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,730.8%, 112.4%, 182.3%, and 4,748.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 98.8% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 755.1% (annualized at 28.3%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,384-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-May 25-Despite last Tuesday’s strong stock market bearishness, the major indices finished bullishly for the week. Those adding to their hold positions from last Monday’s new bull signals actually enjoyed last Tuesday’s strong stock market bearishness since prices were lower for the additional buying. Trade tensions and a very bearish agriculture sector is constraining the stock market bull at this point. International sectors are increasingly bearish, encumbering the stock market bull for full domination along the near-term cycle.

 

Thu-May 24-Same as yesterday.

 

Wed-May 23-The stock market bull remains a bit timid with increasing trade tensions and the agricultural supply chain bearishness along with the constant irrational impeachment chit-chat being conveyed by extraordinary stupid people among politicians and a host of experts of unknown character.

 

Tue-May 22-Strong stock market bearishness facilitated lower buying prices from yesterday’s new bull signals.

 

Mon-May 21-Several new bull signals were triggered today, as they crossed above the near-term blue curve with non-declining force. Near-term bullish unanimity remains absent with the DJU-(Chart) persistent bearishness. However, the most impressive bull is the S&P600-(Chart) Index, which is configured with desirable bullish attributes.

 

Please review the below sections for more insight.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 10 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 1.7-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 0.7%; Annualized Performance: 23.3%

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 2 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 3.1-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -6.3%

Configured Advantage: Near-term Stock Market Bull, effective May 21, 2018.

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 8 of 12

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 1 of 12 

Position Advantage: Near-term Stock Market Bull, effective May 7, 2018.

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 10 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 111.2-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 43.9%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 20.5%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 2 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term: Bears: 3.1-weeks-avg.     

Quick-term Bear Performance: -6.3%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 5 of 12 

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0 of 12

 

Configured Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull effective Nov 7, 2016. Yellow Bears have not outnumbered Red Bulls since then.

                       

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 3 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction:  5 of 11                                   

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 4 of 11

Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull, effective May 11, 2018.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-May 25-Passive volume on mild stock market bearishness offers zero support for bull or bear.

 

Thu-May 24- Recent average volume on mild stock market bearishness is ho-hum.

 

Wed-May 23-Recent average volume on mild stock market bearishness is ho-hum.

 

Tue-May 22-Mildly more aggressive volume, coupled to strong stock market bullishness, does not support more of the same.

 

Mon-May 21-Passive volume on stock market bullishness is not that inspirational to the stock market bull’s continuing effort to dominate. The love is simply not there.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and two sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 22-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 2.0% since their buy signals an average of 4.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 24.0%.

 

The NTI is avoiding eight-ETFs. They are down by an average of 5.7% since their sell signals 3.8-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 2

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 15

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 3

 

Advantage: Near-term stock market bull, as of May 9, 2018

         

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

                                   

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 33.4% since their buy signals an average of 71.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 24.3%.                                                                                  

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding six ETFs. They are down by an average of 15.4% since their sell signals an average of 19.4-weeks ago.

         

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses         

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

 

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 10

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2    

 

Advantage: Quick-term stock market bull, effective May 11, 2018.

 

Reverse Tangential Projections

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

The Dow Utility Index responded very bullishly to last week’s bear signal. It was the strongest bull last week, rising 3.3% while the other major indices were only mildly bullish. Most of the major indices are trading within the zone of short-cycle neutrality along the Mid-term cycle. This has inflicted the stock market for several months, mainly due to rising oil prices and rising interest rates. However, the DJU bullish bounce offers some hope, but not yet qualified due to its falling force and pressure.  Those conflicts should be resolved in a few weeks.

 

Although most other short-cycle attributes are bullishly directed, they are very close to bearish domains. That suggests Mid-term Bullish bias is not strongly configured, reflecting some doubts that relate to the increasingly strong politburo bias, inflation-rising energy costs, and   

 

As stated the past two weeks, “inflation and/or rising interest rates will be the next challenge. The modern day democratic party regaining control over congress in 2018 will stimulate political calamity and high inflation.”

 

As stated last week, “contemporary democrats desire social chaos as that would justify marshal law, which is the first step required for communistic takeover. So far, the stock market is not detecting Deep State victories this November nor is it detecting Deep State opposition this November.”

 

The political element will be influential, as falling food prices may act as a depressant to inflation, helping the Fed suppress their rate hikes.

           

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

05/27/2018

 

 

 

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