Jan 15, 2023, Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report
Volume 01,
Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report
All Cycles Now Bullish
Short-term and mid-term
attributes shifted in favor of the stock market bull this past week. Oil
prices and reported inflation are down and that inspired the stock market
bull to dominate over the stock market bear. Both the short-term and
mid-term cycle with the new bull signals are now enjoying bullish
unanimity. Any bearish day this coming week should be reviewed as a buy
opportunity.
Fundamentally, along the
political spectrum, there is a mild probability of strong attacks on the
executive branch of government. Republican leadership, however, stated
their priority is to get the economy improved. So, with that,
probabilities of prosecting corruption is very low. Also, congress has
zero positive impact to the economy. Only capitalists improve the economy.
Despite a passive republican position, the stock market right now is
bullish, due in part, to a do-nothing government with possible prosecution
of a corrupt president. Success in that would be bullish. Dismantling
presidential policies since 2021 would be decisively bullish.
Mid-term Indicant Status of
the Major Indices
The major stock market indices can be
accessed by clicking this sentence.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the below terms.
Click this sentence to understand the
details on the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for
Explanation1): 1-Red Bull,
9-Non-Red Bulls
Comment: One Red Bull prevents stock market bearishness.
Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for
Explanation2):
7-Blue Bulls, 3-Non-Blue Bulls
Comment: Seven Blue Bulls are supportive of stock market
bullishness.
Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for
Explanation3):
0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow
Bears
Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 16.9%.
Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for
Explanation4):
0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears
Comment: The absence of Green Bears suggests the stock market bear is
increasingly impotent.
Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5):
10-Red Higher than Green; 0-Green
Higher Than Red
Comment: The Red Curve is above Green by an average of 20.9% and thus not
standing in the way of a stock market bull. However, the stock market bear
continues dominating. With that, this metric is irrelevant at this point.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6):
6-bullish domains, 4-bearish
domains
Comment: This is now supporting the stock market bull.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to
Vector Pressure7):
4-above pressure, 6-below
pressure
Comment: This is now confronting the stock market bear..
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8):
5-bullish domains, 5-bearish
domains
Comment: This highly desired attribute is now neutral.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9):
7-bullishly directed,
3-bearishly directed
Comment: This is no longer supportive of the stock market bear.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10):
0-bullishly directed,
10-bearishly directed
Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the above terms.
Click this sentence to understand how to
read the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Configured
Condition of Major Indices: Mid-term attributes continue shifting in favor of the stock
market bull.
Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Week
Click this sentence for a
graphical summary of what follows of historical buy and sell signals and
stock market status.
The website has stock market history dating
back to 1900.
The Mid-term Indicant generated
no
buy signals, and no
sell signals. Clking this sentence
is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 123 of the 315-stocks
and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are
up an average of 426.7% that annualizes to 92.1%. The Mid-term Indicant
has been signaling hold for these 123-stocks and funds for an average of
240.9-weeks. There have been 120 buy signals for stocks and funds so far,
this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the
Indicant, hold signals are 39.0% in the market.
The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 192-stocks and funds of
315-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an
average of 13.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of
82.6-weeks ago. There have been 264-sell signals for stocks and funds so
far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the
Indicant, avoid signals are 61.0% out of the market.
Comments about Mid-term
Indicant Buy and Sell Signals
There were several ETF buy signals along the short-term cycle.
Although bullish unanimity occurred along the Mid-term cycle, there were
no by signals. A few more attributes need to show a bit more support for
the stock market bull.
Clicking this sentence will
take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.
The Short-term Indicant
signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETFs enjoy a
buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term
Indicant summaries.
These short-term models attempt participation in significant
bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and
longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness.
The Daily Stock Market Report
reports status for the short-term model.
Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency,
Interest Rates
Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic
indicators.
Reported CPI remains unhealthy. The
PPI, as reported, remains unfavorable to the stock market bull and
the economy. The annual inflation rate is reported at 6.5%. Oil prices are
down 8.3% from this time one year ago. Oil is up $44.04/BBL (+104.4%)
since Biden’s so-called election. Oil is up 34.9% since Biden was sworn in
as President of the United States. Oil is down 13.0% since Russian invaded
Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022. Biden, not Putin, caused inflation and related
higher fuel prices.
The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and
Effective Rate increased 50-basis points on weekending Dec 16, 2022,
following a 75-basis points on weekending Nov 4, 2022.
Economic damage inflicted by the democratic party, germ warfare
from their China pals, and other overstepping U.S. communistic
politicians, and the self-proclaimed elites continue manifestation with a
hopeful designed pause in the nightmare of a Biden presidency with a
democratic congress. The destination to a decreased quality of life has
begun with little evidence of political will to undo that.
The 3-Month T-Bill
shifted to Red Bull status on
weekending Jan 28, 2022, after about two and a half years of enduring
Yellow Bear status since Jul 19, 2019.
The T-Bill has risen a
significant amount the past several weeks to the delight of the stock
market bear. That behavior is now more visible on the chart as interest
rates continue escaping the gravity of zero in a race to the clouds of
stupidity. The prevailing rates are now well above pre-Covid prior peak in
June 2019 and about 86% of the way to the pre 2008 peak cycle.
The
Euro crossed above Yellow (strengthened) status on weekending
Dec 30, 2022 and above Red on weekending Jan 13, 2023. The 2024-mean
forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting
$0.94 to $0.98.
The
Canadian dollar
moved above Red (weakening) during the week of July 11, 2022, after
climbing above Yellow (weakening) on July 17, 2021. Its 2024-mean forecast
is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values
ranging from $1.67CA to $1.72CA.
The
Japanese Yen
remains above Red since Apr 2, 2021 but falling (strengthening) the past
several weeks. Its narrow min-max points from 2017 through mid-2021
remains impressive with that tightness continuing through September 2021,
when some additional weakening occurred. It continues to be escaping that
tight trading range from 2017 through mid-2021. It weakened severely the
week of Apr 4, 2022. It, like most currencies, was stable during Trump’s
era and now American made products are less competitive during the Biden
era, as all major foreign currencies are weakening much to the delight of
those foreign governments. Its statistical mean forecast is at
118-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting
a range of 146-152-Yen/U.S. dollar.
The
British Pound escaped Yellow Bear status on weekending Jan 13, 2023 after
falling prey to the Yellow Bear status as of Mar 11, 2022. Its statistical
mean forecast is at $1.29 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting
around $1.04-$1.09 by Dec 2024. The last bearish cycle was deeper than the
prior one suggesting a trend reversal favoring its bearishness.
The
Bitcoin fell to Yellow Bear status on week ending May 20, 2022 for the
first time since early 2020. After that bearishness, it returned to its
previous comfort level this past weekend at the around $20,000.
Gold escaped Yellow Bear
status on weekending Dec 30, 2022.
The Dec 2024-mean forecast
is $2,000/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a Dec
2024 value approximating $1,475-$1,550/oz. You can keep up with an
approximation of this on the
Indicant Daily Stock
Market Report
by tracking
ETF#11-GLD.
Oil fell to Yellow Bear
status on weekending Dec 11, 2022.
The
CRB Bridge Futures
lost Red Bull status on weekending Sep 22, 2022 after regaining that lofty
status on Dec 31, 2020, and after abandoning Yellow Bear status on the
week of August 3, 2020. That correlated well with a dumb voting populace
and vote cheaters supporting the communistic takeover attempt of the U.S.
It is now aggressively contributing to inflation. Contrary to prior
comments, it may not increase as rising interest rates are designed to
mute demand, which should lead to recessionary behaviors.
Mortgage rates regained Red
Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021, after falling into Yellow Bear
status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.
As late 2022, mortgage rates
are higher than the housing bubble burst rates of 2006-2008, but still
below 1990’s interest rates. Until incumbent politicians are removed from
and replaced with those who promote good to all people, interest rates
will continue to rise.
The
consumer price index
and
producer price index
are now computing with the combined absolute value of threatening interest
rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. That is not bullish and as you
have seen, it has been outright bearish.
Mid-term Indicant
Positions – Ten U.S. Indices
There were ten new bull signals and no new bear signal this past week.
The Mid-term Indicant Dow
Jones Industrial Average
performance is at $70.0 million. That beats buy and hold performance of
$5.0 million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The
MTI S&P500
is at $4.3 million. That beats buy and hold’s $2.3 million on a Jan 6,
1950, $10,000 investment. The
MTI-NASDAQ
is at $2.7 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.16 million on a Jan 29,
1971, $10,000 investment. The
MTI-Dow Transports is at $40.2-million. That is better than buy and hold
$971,201 million since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term
Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,394.0%, 183.5%, 230.6%, and
4,144.4%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.
There are two reasons why the
Dow Transport index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow
Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the
statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends
to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness
more than other indices.
The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change
during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same
magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the
cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.
Click here for a tour of the
Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
NASDAQ100 Stocks
Click here to see NASDAQ100
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
NASDAQ 100 Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks
Click here to see Dow 30
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Table of
Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks
Click here to see Dow
Utilities Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones
Utility Stocks Table.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Indicant Selected Stocks
Click here to see Indicant
Select Stock Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
Indicant Selected Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Mutual Funds
Click here to see Mutual Fund
Report Card history.
Click here for the Mid-term
Table of Mutual Funds.
The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for
MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short
on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.8% since then. Although this is
classically presidential post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant
was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2021 as the
stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those
four presidential post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical
lows in the 2008/9 recession and persisted since then and thus giving rise
to equity attractiveness to investors. Although interest rates have risen
in 2022, they remain at levels below that in the 1990’s.
Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds
Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good
way to mix your investments.
Long Term Indicant
Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average
The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in
November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five
bull/bear cycles since 1920.
The Dow is up 1085.0%, annualized at 34.7% since the Long-term Indicant
signaled bull 1,628-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on
the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable
interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull
signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with
today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up
triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when
considering long-term planning.
Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great
bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009
recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.
The next section is the last
daily stock market report for this past
week.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Archives
{Repeated here are from
the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week.
Click this link to see all the daily
reports from the last 12-months.
Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of
the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the
end of each week}.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Summary
Jan 13-The
short-term cycle shifted with bullish bias and thus there were several buy
signals. The major indices are configured with bullish unanimity,
suggesting this baby bull cycle may become more than just a bullish spurt.
Political conflict between the House and the President is ramping up with
potential inspiration to the stock market bull, which favor positive
reality over fiction and ignorant human bias.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Details
Click this sentence to see table leading to
the charts.
Index Near-term Report Card
Summary
The Near-term Indicant signaled
eleven
new bulls and one new bear.
Number of Near-term Bulls: 0 of 12
Duration of Near-term Bulls: 0.0-wks-avg.
Near-term Bull Performance: N/A%; Annualized Performance: N/A%
Number of Near-term Bears: 0 of 12
Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 0.0-wks. avg.
Near-term Bears Average Performance: N/A%
Near-term Performance Advantage: Jan 13, 2023-Stock
Market Bull
Near-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 10 of 11
Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 11
Near-term Performance Advantage: Jan 13, 2023-Stock
Market Bull
Index Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant signaled
eleven
new bulls and one new bear.
Number of Quick-term Bulls: 0 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 0.0-wks.
Quick-term Bull Performance: N/A%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: -
N/A%
Number of Quick-term Bears: 0 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 3.7-weeks-avg.
Quick-term Bear Performance: N/A%
Quick-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 6 of 12
Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2 of 12
Quick-term Configured Advantage: Jan 13, 2023-Stock
Market Bull
Short-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 11 of 11
Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 11 of 11
Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 11 of 11
Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 7 of 11
Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 11 of 11
Short-term Advantage: Short-term Advantage: Jan 13, 2023-Stock
Market Bull
Indicant Volume Indicators
Jan 13-Both volume indicators remain near neutrality and thus not lending
support to bullish or bearish dynamics. Despite that, participation in the
newly forming bullish spurt is recommended due to shifting political
dynamics with increasing exposure of political corruption and the
increased probability of punishment.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and
Charts
ETF Near-term Report Card
Summary
There were 24
buy signals and
one sell signal along
the near-term cycle.
The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for five-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 3.9%, annualizing at 24.2% since their buy signals an average
of 8.4-weeks ago. The Near-term Indicant is avoiding two-ETF’s.
They are down by an average of 35.7% since their sell signals an average
of 47.5-weeks ago.
Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 2
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 25
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0
Near-term Advantage: Jan 13, 2023-Stock
Market Bull
ETF Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant generated
21
buy signals and one sell signal.
The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for four ETF’s. They are up by
an average of 5.8%, annualizing at 36.7% since their buy signals an
average of 8.3-weeks ago.
The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding six-ETF’s. They are down by an average
of 11.8% since their sell signals 19.5-weeks ago.
Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 16
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1
Quick-term Advantage: Jan 13, 2023-Stock
Market Bull
Reverse Tangential
Projections
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in
mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term,
and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each
chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell
signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the NASDAQ Composite Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the S&P500 Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Understanding Content on the Short-term
Indicant Charts
Indicant Conclusion
Configurations along both the short-term and mid-term cycle are started
arguing against the stock market bear last week. That argument
strengthened with a defeat of the stock market bear this past week along
both the short-term and long-term cycle.
Hyperlinks
To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts,
statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log
in. It is on the top of every page on the website, so you can always find
your way back.
Stop Loss Management
This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely
changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or
loosened.
The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for
holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this
includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest.
Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green
curve values, depending on your personal preferences.
For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and
quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow
price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The
idea is to minimize losses.
Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near
those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders
will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves
and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly
immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired
liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be
well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That
perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is
the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a
combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long
after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow
curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio
values.
For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the
tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to
average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve
is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green
is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its
value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop
losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow
passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow
price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are
supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece
of a great company or fund.
If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues
signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the
Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is
better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In
other words, other opportunities will emerge.
Click this sentence to keep up with the
Short-term Indicant.
Click this sentence to maintain stock
market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes
can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that
continue to enjoy hold signals.
Happy Investing,
www.indicant.net
01/15/2023
