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Weekly Stock Market Report

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Feb 23, 2020 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 2, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

                                                          

The Successor Is Always Weaker

Economic leeching can never be the predecessor. It is always the successor, as leeching economic wealth is not possible until after the wealth has been created. Any successive element in any subject is always dependent on its predecessor.

 

Can you imagine Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren pontifications in the Americas in 1600’s? During that era, wealth was created by ax and sweat. People with an ax in their hand building their own log cabin would not relate to those pontifications as rewards from food, shelter, and clothing directly correlated to individual effort. The early settlers in the Americas would not even understand Sanders/Warren pontifications. They would either have Sanders and Warren committed or simply eliminate them based on their nonsensical orations. Building your own log cabin was tough enough and asking the early settlers to build a log cabin for the lazy would not go over well. Laziness was not an option, for the most part, in the 1600-Americas, but has become dominant in the past thirty years or so.

 

The stock market fell sharply on Thursday, Feb 20, 2020 the day after Wednesday night’s democratic presidential debate. Michael Bloomberg, multibillionaire, bought his way into the process. Who can blame him with the lunatics leading the platform, such as Warren, Sanders, and the other unaccomplished candidates? Even though Bloomberg bought his way in, he is not a lunatic. He at least understands capitalism is better than communism. The only problem with Bloomberg is his close ties with China. He would most likely side with them in war.

 

Bernie’s free this and free that is disturbing to the stock market bull. If everything was free, then there would be no corporate profits. Also, products and services would deteriorate to non-usefulness in a very short period. The great Shigeo Shingo stated the wheels wobble in the U.S.S.R. After the wobbling consumer products were non-existent except bread and vodka, where U.S.S.R. citizens stood in line for weeks just for a loaf or pint. There is nothing fancy or sophisticated as to why. It is real simple. Most people do better for themselves than anyone else can do for them. That includes communistic leaders. They will take care of themselves before taking care of you and over time, they cannot even get to you, as their lethargy expands with uncompetitive pressures. Some crazies do not mind long lines. They would if they were hungry to two weeks standing in a line.

 

The stock market bull does not fear Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. That is because it knows they are  psychologically deficient people whose livelihood is no different than Jimmy Swaggert. All oral pontifications emit to space and eventually become static. Oral pontifications are a waste of time. People who listen and believe in the hype are also lunatics. The stock market bull is concerned about the millions of screaming idiots believing the orating idiots.

 

For 1,105-years, originating with the Magna Carta, humankind made profound technological advances, leading to the increased quality of life we all enjoy. Wealth accumulated wildly during those years and really stepped it up with the U.S. Constitution. That wealth creation facilitated idleness and relaxation. It also facilitated creations of governments that started the economic leeching process. As government coffers swelled with taxing their citizens, idle brains, such as Bernie Sanders, starts pontificating how that wealth would be distributed. Distributing monies to lazy and dumb results in wealth evaporation. Bernie does not know that or he is even more mentally sick than many would admit.

 

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are the successors of the predecessor, capitalism. Their very existence is dependent upon the predecessor, capitalism. They, without any meaningful accomplishments in their pitiful lives, believe they are entitled successors to all that the predecessor created. Both have been economic leeches their entire lives and now want to expand that leeching in a massive way.

 

The stock market knows more democratic presidential debates are coming up in the next few weeks. The stock market bull will have some trouble dominating. Several Mid-term Indicant attributes are decreasing their support of the stock market bull. That will persist until you see force vectors climb back above vector pressure. Those attributes are noted in the next section of this report.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 9-Red Bulls, 1-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: Red Bull unanimity remains absent with the DJT-(Chart) retaining non Red Bull status for the fourth consecutive week. Interestingly, the DJT was the only bullish index last week. The nine Red Bulls are above Red by a healthy average of 11.1%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls- Click for Explanation2): 8-Blue Bulls, 2-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The S&P600-(Chart) lost Blue Status this past week, joining the DJT-(Chart). The eight Blue Bulls are above the blue curve by an average of 4.0%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: Fortunately, none of the major indices are Yellow Bears. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 32.4% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance and the economy is not being threatened. The Indicant will signal bear, if necessary, well before Yellow Bear infestations. Tolerating a 32.4% drop is unacceptable.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: The absence of any Green Bears reduces stock market bear potential. All ten major indices are above Green by an average of 11.2% percent, which is healthy for the stock market bull. The Mid-term Indicant signals bear when the major indices fall below green when not in Red Bull status and with a few other exceptions.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 6-Reds Higher than Green; 4-Green Higher Than Red

              Comment: Overall, the ten major red curves are above the green curve by 1.3%. Green’s failure to climb above Red suggests the stock market is not overheated, but now increasing that probability.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 8-bullish domains, 2-bearish domains

              Comment: The S&P600-(Chart) dropped into bearish domains on weekending Feb 7, 2020. The DJT-(Chart) force vector fell into bearish domains on weekending Feb 14, 2020. Although not yet serious, this is a bit discerning.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 1-above pressure, 9-below pressure

              Comment: This attribute remains a bit threatening due to the politburo wannabes continuing disdain for U.S. voters and the Coronavirus.  This configuration supports non-bullishness. The DJU-(Chart) is the lone index with force bullishly positioned above pressure.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 9-bullish domains, 1-bearish domains

              Comment: The DJT’s vector pressure fail into bearish domains last year.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 2-bullishly directed, 8-bearishly directed

              Comment: This is the fourth consecutive week of enduring bearishly directed force vectors. This continues supporting stock market non-bullishness. Their movement is erratic, but continuing their support of stock market non-bullishness.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 2-bullishly directed, 8-bearishly directed

            Comment: This continues threatening the stock market bull.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Mid-term Indicant attributes remain supportive of the stock market bull, but with increasing support for non-bullishness on the short-term horizon.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. Of course, the website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated one buy signal and one sell signal this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 257 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 262.1% that annualizes to 53.5%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 257-stocks and funds for an average of 254.6-weeks. There have been four buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 62-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 35.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 125.7-weeks ago. There have been eight-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on Feb 22, 2019 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 189-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 267.8-weeks. They were up by an average of 246.2% (annualized at 47.8%). There were 132-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 14.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 71.8-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 19-buy signal and six-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 261-stocks on Feb 23, 2018. They were up 209.2% since their buy signals an average of 245.4-weeks earlier, annualizing at 44.3%. There were 60-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 82.5-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2018. There had been 15-buy signals and 25-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 261-stocks and funds of the 302-tracked on Feb 24, 2017. They were up by an average of 165.9%, annualizing at 43.8%, since their respective buy signals an average of 197.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 38-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 19.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 97.1-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and two sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 17-year-to-date buy signals and four sell signals through this weekend in 2017.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 191-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Feb 19, 2016. They were up by an average of 155.9%, annualizing at 34.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 236.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 139-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 19.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 56.8-weeks earlier. There were eight buy signals and no sell signal on this weekend in 2016. There had been a total of eleven buy signals and 58-sell signals through this weekend in 2016.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying exceeded selling in 2019. That should continue until you see zero Red Bulls along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. The primary constraint is not economic, but politburo wannabes wanting to take political power. Also, much depends on presidential polls. Any of the democrat candidates leading with a potential to defeat Trump will inspire the stock market bear. Bernie Sanders, the communist and economically illiterate, like all communists, is again leading in the democratic polls. If elected president with a democratic congress will be the beginning of the end of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. A populace believing the word, free, deserves their fate. The stock market will not only shift into a secular decline, it will quickly become irrelevant. A Trump victory, on the other hand, will lead profound stock market bullishness. He will not need a republican congress to do that. A “do nothing” congress is always bullish.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition. Recent promotions of communism, if successful, will result in zero for all capital stocks.

 

Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics will be inflationary. Despite that eventuality, inflation remains tame for the time being. The annual inflation rate is being reported at only 2.5% to date this year. Oil prices are down 7.1% from this time one year ago.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate decreased by 25-basis points on weekending Nov 1, 2019 following similar decreases on Aug 2, 2019 and Sep 19, 2019. These three decreases are miniscule to the increases on Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018, Sep 30, 2018, and Dec 21, 2018. The Fed remains sensitive to political pressure, favoring the stock market bull. Inflation is mildly threatening, and deflation is not at the present time. Overall, the stock market bull finds these combinations comfortable.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill fell to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 19, 2019.  After falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear, it started a rebound attempt on weekending Jan 10, 2020, but not yet rising. Despite that it continues offering bullish potential for the stock market. Although the stock market may not be dynamically bullish, the probability of stock market bearishness is miniscule with depressed interest rates in the face of a healthy economy.

                                                                                

The Euro escaped Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jan 10, 2020, but fell back into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Feb 14, 2020. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.89 to $0.90.

 

The Canadian dollar climbed to just above Yellow (weakening) on weekending Aug 23, 2019 and continues resting in the zone of neutrality, but nearing Red Bull status (further weakening). Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.32CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.61CA to $1.68CA.  

 

The Japanese Yen continues in a steady downward drift (strengthening), while doing that in the zone of neutrality. Its statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 133-145-Yen/U.S. dollar. Its flatness the past three years is unusual. That helps international stabilization, which is always welcome by the stock market bull. It also strengthened with the mild rate reduction by the U.S. Fed on weekending Aug 2, 2019, but with limited impact on the Sep 19, 2019 rate reduction.

 

British Pound’s 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.28 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $1.07-$1.13 by Dec 31, 2020. Since its mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it drifted, bearishly. It climbed above Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 18, 2019 and above Red on weekending, Dec 5, 2019, and again falling below Red on weekending Feb 7, 2020 and simply resting in the zone of neutrality.

 

The Bitcoin lost Red Bull status on weekending Feb 20, 2020, after losing Red Bull status on weekending and Feb 13, 2020. The last time it lost Red Bull status was on Sep 27, 2019, after regaining it on weekending, May 17, 2019 for the first time since early 2018. It did not take very long for it to express Red Bull discomfort at that time. It again has an opportunity to hold Red Bull status.

                       

Gold climbed sharply above Red on weekending Jun 21, 2019.  After a long rest, it continues increasing its bullish expressions. The threat of a politburo takeover of the U.S. government adds to the element of fear and helping keep gold prices at their lofty Red Bull position, along with a mildly weakening U.S. dollar. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,301/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $980-$1,150/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil fell into Yellow Bear status on Feb 6, 2020.  It is holding ground in a shallow Yellow Bear condition. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $13 to $19. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $57/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Supply capacity, exceeding demand, is the prevailing price depressant.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures escaped Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 13, 2019 after falling into Yellow Bear status on Nov 23, 2018. It climbed above Red on weekending Dec 21, 2019 but fell into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending, Feb 14, 2020. That drop results in flatness since early 2016, but with a gentle bullish trend since early 2016. With that and a bullish economy, a bullish bounce should be expected. The 2020-mean forecast is at $188, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting $103-$105 by 2020. Its current configuration offers no support for inflation. It has been uncharacteristically steady for several years.

 

Mortgage rates fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  They remain as Yellow Bears and deepening into a dynamic Yellow Bear. This remains a great time to finance real estate.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.          

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all ten major indices. They are up an average of 20.2% since their respective bull signals an average of 48.6-weeks ago, annualizing at 21.6%. 

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $77.507-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $4.346-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $4.100-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.965-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $3.564-million. That beats buy and hold’s $967,769 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $37.275-million. That is better than buy and hold $781,051 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,660.4%, 108.6%, 209.5%, and 4,672.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a week or two for the statistics to settle.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.4% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although poll accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of course, if that happens, you would not be allowed to benefit from that opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you. Politburo’s confiscate.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 901.6% (annualized at 31.7%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,477-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Saturday, Feb 15- The bull/bear battle is limited to the near-term cycle. Political fundamentals are not the culprit, as the democratic party’s debate exposed their lunacy. The stock market bull is delighted by that. Bernie Sanders continues with some success, using the most powerful marketing word, free. Societal lunacy is the culprit there, as Bernie is simply a sick person. Believing him is sheer stupidity. The Coronavirus remains a threat to the stock market bull, but not yet simulating volume interest and thus of minor concern. The mid-term cycle, however, continues with mild support for stock market non-bullishness.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 9 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 16.0-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 10.5%; Annualized Performance: 34.1%

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 3 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 8.7-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: 2.0%

Near-term Performance Advantage: Oct 12, 2019-Stock Market Bull

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue             Bulls: 2 of 12 

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 12 

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Feb 14, 2020-Stock Market Bull

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 43.4-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 19.8%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 23.7%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 20.0-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: 0.2%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 9 of 12       

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Sep 06, 2019-Quick-term Advantage to Bull

                       

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 1 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 0 of 11                                           

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 9 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull-effective Oct 11, 2019

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Feb 21-Fri-Although a mild increase in volume correlated with late week stock market bearishness, fundamental causation is absent while the Coronavirus is threatening. Both Indicant Volume Indicators are in the domain of high interest, correlating with stock market bullishness. That overrules the Coronavirus threat.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 19-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 9.7% since their buy signals an average of 15.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 32.4%.

 

The NTI is avoiding 13-ETFs. They are down by an average of 4.6% since their sell signals an average of 4.2-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 2

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 9

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 2

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bull Oct 4, 2019

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 17.0% since their buy signals an average of 35.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 24.8%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding four-ETFs. They are down by an average of 22.6% since their sell signals an average of 19.3-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 18

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull Oct 4, 2019

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:    

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

 

Indicant Conclusion

Falling force and pressure continues threatening the stock market bull. Their bearish behavior is being influenced by the Coronavirus, Bernie Sanders, and the Democratic (Communist) party. The stock market bull cannot dominant until both of those attributes shift into a bullish direction.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Indicant Conclusion

Force vector behavior is increasingly becoming unfriendly to the stock market bull with a majority of the major indices shifting into a bearish direction. Although nowhere near supportive of the stock market bear, bearishly moving force vectors are always a bit discerning for those desiring stock market bullishness. Force vectors remain above vector pressure. Until force drops below pressure, the stock market bear cannot dominate.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

02/23/2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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