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Weekly Stock Market Report

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Oct 15, 2017 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 10, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

  

Red and Blue Bullish Unanimity

There is an argument suggesting human happiness requires periods of human sadness. Without ever being sad, one would not enjoy periods of happiness. Of course, the converse could also be argued. Those who reflect from time to time know that many successive happy days will eventually be followed by sad ones.

 

Suppose you enjoy twenty successive days of never encountering a red signal light during your commute to work. Those who reflect understand they have been lucky. Those who do not become spoiled. Those who reflect, recognize they were lucky for those twenty days and ponder their prior enjoyment. Those who do not, get mad, banging their hands on their steering wheel, when they are stopped in traffic.

 

All bull markets to date have been followed by bear markets. Since most stock markets around the world are more than zero, the stock market bull holds an edge. The prevailing bull market has been abnormally long without bearish disruption. The stock market bull is certainly pleasing to those who enjoy bull markets. The stock market bears of 2000-2002 and 2007-2008 have contributed to the euphoria of the prevailing stock market bull, which does not reflect an equally strong economy. Accumulated money must be invested and where else can one invest money to make money? With that, the stock market bull roars loudly while the worldwide economy continues to struggle. Gold and the petroleum sector are arguing for inflationary threats to the stock market bull. Inflation has not been disruptive to the stock market bull since the 1970’s. Click this sentence to review inflation’s impact to the stock market in the early 1970’s. As you can see, the stock market bear started in the late 1960’s ahead of inflationary pressures. Click this sentence to see inflation’s impact in the middle 1970’s. Another bear originated in 1973 with over a 50% drop. Click this sentence to see inflation’s influence in the late 1970’s. By 1982, the S&P500 was well below where all those bears started in 1969. For well over ten years, the primary problem confronting the stock market was inflation. Most of it was stimulated by OPEC’s rising oil prices and very little innovation during that era of rising socialism. The bullish cycles following all those bears certainly offered periods of investor elation, while also accomplishing nothing since the stock market was less than zero when pivoting off where it was in 1969. Emotion and the stock market behavior are irrational relationships.

 

During periods of excessive inflation, high interest rates offer additional investments other than the stock market. During the 1970’s all petroleum related stock prices skyrocketed while the overall stock market. Interest rates were double digit offering big money better instruments to make money. Stock market investing lost money during that era of inflation and rising socialism. The prevailing stock market bull is impressive because there are very few alternatives for making money. There are early indications of inflationary threats on the horizon with rising gold and petroleum based securities. Keep in mind, early indications do not always manifest. Product innovation and declining worldwide confidence in socialistic models argues against inflationary themes. With all of that, the stock market bull remains strong at this time, but without euphoria, knowing the stock market bear will eventually bite.

 

The Mid-term Indicant’s short-cycle green curve is bear signal point for the major indices with one exception. Red Bulls do not endure bear signals, regardless of any other mid-term cycle attribute. Indices above the red curve are Red Bulls.

 

During normal bull-bear cycles, the market is considered overheated when green crosses above Red. That occurs after a solid and somewhat lengthy bullish cycle. The salient word in the previous sentence is “normal.” Normalcy is typically defined by empirical observations from a measurable data set. The current stock market bull is not normal, as it is older than the average of prior bulls. It is also abnormal with significantly slow economic expansion. The prevailing stock market bull is abnormal due to abnormally low interest rates, coupled to below “reported” inflationary rates. The combined absolute value of interest rates and inflationary rates is less than 8%. The reason absolute values are mentioned is to also account for deflation. The stock market bull does not like to coexist with deflation as much as it dislikes coexisting with inflation.

 

Despite all of that, nine of the ten major indices short-cycle green curve is above the red curve. The only major indices without that attribute is the Dow Transports. Click this sentence to view its chart.   

Keep your eye on the Indicant Stock Market reports. As you can see, green nearly eclipsed its red curve earlier this year. It felled to do so with a bearish dip at about the same time. That bearish dip did not destroy its Red Bull status. Bearish cycles above the bullish Red Curve are irrelevant.

 

You will also notice the short-cycle green curve crossed above Red in early 2013, which was the year of sequestration, which was abnormal, also. Despite being overheated at that time, the stock market bull continued to dominate until mid-2015. You can see that a bear signal was triggered in 2015, when the Dow Transports fell below red. It fell below green a few weeks earlier and already qualified for a bear signal, pending its fall below red.

 

The Dow Transports force vector is at a cyclical maximum, suggesting non-bullishness over the next few weeks. That is actually bullish for the overall market. That is because there is less likelihood of it being considered as overheated. As long as one major index is not overheated, the stock market bull can continue to dominate, as money simply rotates from one sector to the other. When all ten major indices are overheated, money rotations will not be as appealing and can encourage bearish behavior.

 

With that, keep your eye on the Dow Transports. It not being bullish can very well mean overall stock market bullishness remains healthy.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 10-Red Bulls, 0-Non-Red Bulls

            Comment: Red Bull unanimity continues along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. That disables strong bearish inclinations, as Red Bulls are the strongest defense against the stock market bear. The major indices are above Red by an average of 11.2%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 10-Blue Bulls, 0-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: Blue Bull unanimity now exists with all ten major indices above their respective short-cycle blue curves. All major indices are above the short-cycle blue curve by an average of 3.1%.  

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: None of the major indices are threatening on becoming one. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop 31.9% from current position.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

                Comment: All ten major indices are above Green by an average of 8.1%. Bear signals are not signaled with prevailing configurations until prices fall below Green and no longer Red Bulls. With that, the stock market would have to fall 11.2% at this point to endure bear signals since that is the stock market’s relative position to the bullish red curve.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): One-Red Higher than Green; Nine Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: Although this attribute suggests an overheated bull market, it remains a minor concern at this point. The DJT-(Chart) is the only major index not yet configuring as overheated.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 9-bullish domains, 1-bearish domains

                Comment: This attribute remains in support for the stock market bull since the majority of force vectors are bullishly directed. The lone force vector in bearish domains is the DJU-(Chart).

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 9-above pressure, 1-below pressure

                Comment: The majority of force vectors remain above vector pressure, favoring the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 9-bullish domains, 1-bearish domains

                Comment: The stock market bear finds difficulty in achieving dominance with the majority in bullish domains. The Dow Utilities-(Chart) vector pressure fell into bearish domains on weekending Oct 13, 2017. Contrary to Dow Transports force vector at a cyclical maximum, the Dow Utilities is configuring at a cyclical minimum.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 9-bullish, 1-bearish

                Comment: Force vector direction continues favoring the stock market bull. Only the DJU-(Chart) is not supportive of the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 9-bullish, 1-bearish

            Comment: Support for the stock market bull remains in effect with this bullish attribute. Only the DJU-(Chart) is not supportive of the stock market bull.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: As stated for several weeks, the prevailing Red Bull population minimizes deep bearish magnitude. Most Mid-term Indicant attributes are configured with bullish support.

 

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.

 

Nvadia, NAS#75-NVDA-(Chart), was up 7.3% last week as the NASDAQ100’s biggest winner. It is also up 1379.8% since the Indicant’s Jan 2013 buy signal. Continue holding this solid Red Bull. Discovery, NAS#43-DISCK-(Chart), was down 9.9% as the NASDAQ100’s most disappointing stock last week. It is also down 27.4% since the Indicant’s Jul 7, 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

 

a Tyr Pharmacy, ISTK#90-LIFE-(Chart), was up 9.8% last week, as this group of stocks best performer. Despite that bullishness, it is down 67.9% since the Indicant’s Jul 2015 sell signal. This stock’s recent bullishness is indeed impressive, but Yellow Bears should always be avoided. Hydrogenic, ISTK#32-HYGS-(Chart), was down 11.3% as the worse performing stock last week in this group. However, it is up 6.8% since the Indicant’s Sep 1, 2017 buy signal. Keep your stop loss tight, as holding is fighting the trend.

 

Walmart, DJIA#24-WMT-(Chart), was up 9.7% last week as the Dow30’s big winner. It is also up 20.2% since the Indicant’s Mar 31, 2017 buy signal. Continue holding this Red Bull. This stock still enjoys the spirit of Sam Walton. AT&T, DJIA#16-T-(Chart), was down 7.4% last week, as the worse performing Dow30 stock. It is down that same amount since the Indicant’s buy signal on Oct 6, 2017. This stock has a long-term bullish trend, but arguably the laziest one ever. Maintain your stop loss as this union infested company will most likely never perform at a high level.

 

First Energy, DJU#15-FE-(Chart), was up 3.6% last week, as the Dow Utility’s best performing stock. It is up 3.7% since the Indicant’s Oct 2016 sell signal. It is teetering around the bearish yellow curve and too risky to buy. PG&E, DJU#07-PCG-(Chart), was down 16.1% last week as the worse performing stock last week. However, it is up 36.9% since the Indicant’s Jan 2014 buy signal. Last week’s dip is impressive, but it will not qualify for a sell signal until becoming a Yellow Bear.

 

Fidelity Pacific Basin, MF#73-FPBFX-(Chart), was up 3.4% last week as the best fund tracked by the Indicant. It is also up 20.7% since the Indicant’s March 2017 buy signal. Continue holding this solid Red Bull. Fidelity Medical Devices, MF#50-FSHCX-(Chart), was down 4.6% last week, as the worse performing fund. However, it is up 144.7% since the Indicant’s Jul 2009 buy signal. Although no longer a Red Bull, this fund remains with strong bullish configurations.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Ten Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past ten years. If a particular year interests you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated one buy signal and one sell signal this weekend. Clicking this sentence will display them on the website.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 271 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 183.0% that annualizes to 43.3%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 264-stocks and funds for an average of 219.7-weeks. There have been 72-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 48-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 20.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 124.5-weeks ago. There have been 52-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

Note July 9, 2017-The NASDAQ100 were increased to 112-stocks with a potential for 120-stocks. This is necessary, since NASDAQ100-stocks and other indices, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, endure turnover with stocks not qualifying for inclusion with other stocks periodically replacing the non-qualifiers.

 

Several stocks are in and out of the NASDAQ100 listing, such as eBay. For the past several years the Indicant moved former NASDAQ100 stocks to the Indicant Select Stocks group. Stocks, such as eBay would later requalify for inclusion into the NASDAQ100. Rather than moving stocks from one listing to another, such stocks will continue to be listed on the Indicant NASDAQ100-stock listing. However, once the Indicant determines there is little chance of a former NASDAQ100-stock requalifying for inclusion, it will then be moved to the Indicant Select Stock Group. Such changes can be traced on the Abandonment and Changes page. Once a stock is no longer traded, NLT, it will be deleted.

 

The Indicant is still debating ETF inclusions in the Indicant Select Stocks. The thesis is longer life cycle for ETF’s, while the life cycle of a S&P500 company is now averaging less than 20-years. The antithesis is ETF’s do not rise by quadruple amounts, such as the 1990’s Dell or 2000’s Apple.

 

One year ago, on Oct 14, 2016 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 252-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked for an average of 188.7-weeks. They were up by an average of 145.5% (annualized at 40.1%). There were 47-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 23.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 86.6-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were no buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There had been 122-buy signals and 87-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2016. The markets were nervous at this time of year in 2016 with the polls favoring the election of a dynamic economic leech, Hillary Clinton.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 242-stocks on Oct 16, 2015. They were up 166.0% since their buy signals an average of 224.8-weeks earlier. There were 93-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 66.7-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There had been 34-buy signals and 88-sell signals through this weekend in 2015. This presidential pre-election year was somewhat uneventful and tame, following unusually strong post-election year bullishness in 2013 and a flat 2014-mid-term presidential election year.    

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 301-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Oct 17, 2014. They were up by an average of 122.5%, annualizing at 35.1%, since their respective buy signals an average of 181.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 36-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 19.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 62.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2014. There had been 22-buy signals and 39-sell signals through this weekend in 2014. This presidential mid-term election year was encumbered by normal cyclicality, while correlating more stock market bullishness with projected congressional losses by democrats. The cyclicality was due to increasing personal biasness by pollsters, as opposed to polling accuracy. Some pollsters bias their statistics in an attempt to maneuver voters to their preferred candidate. After all, they, like others who live entirely in an abstract world of opinion, believe they know better, while, in fact, their brain waves emanate fiction.

 

There were 309-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Oct 11, 2013 since their buy signals an average of 138.5-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 95.9% (annualized at 36.0%). There were 52-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 28.0% from their respective sell signals an average of 79.2-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2013. There had been 81-buy signals and 52-sell signals through this weekend in 2013. This was an impressively bullish year, as sequestration inspired the stock market bull along an accelerated growth plane. Although sequestered spending was minimal, the underlying principles of handcuffing the irrationality of politicians inspired the stock market bull.

 

On Oct 12, 2012, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 285-stocks and funds out of 338-tracked. They were up by an average of 76.3% (annualized at 38.4%) since their buy signals an average of 103.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 47-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 41.3% since their sell signals an average of 78.0-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and five sell signals on this weekend in 2012. There had been 171-buy signals and 117-sell signals through this weekend in 2012.

 

On Oct 14, 2011, there were 179-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 335-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 71.0%, annualizing at 39.6% since their respective buy signals an average of 93.3-weeks earlier. There were 124-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 16.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 54.2-weeks earlier. There were 32-buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2011. There had been 65-buy signals and 147-sell signals through this weekend in 2011.

                       

On Oct 15, 2010, there were 266-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 316-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 39.7%, annualizing at 45.8%, since their respective buy signals an average of 45.1-weeks earlier. There were 67-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 42.4% since their sell signals an average of 98.3-weeks earlier. There were six-buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2010, adding to a total of 158-buy signals and 113-sell signals through this weekend in 2010. The stock market shifted to strong bullishness in August 2010 at the obviation of democrats losing the House of Representatives. This is an example of the stock market’s ability to “anticipate,” as opposed to being reaction to the “news.”

 

There were 195-stocks and funds with hold signals on Oct 9, 2009. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 317-stocks and funds at that time. Those with hold signals were up by an average of 24.1%, annualizing at 56.4%, since their buy signals an average of 22.2-weeks earlier. The 114-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 39.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 83.1-weeks earlier. There were eight buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. There had been 198-buy signals and 25-sell signals through this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear neared its conclusion in late February 2009 with most of the selling beginning in late 2007 with renewed buying along the short-term cycle in March-April 2009 and more heavily by Jul 2009 along the more stable mid-term cycle. This year was an extraordinarily bullish year, as the presidential post-election year is typically bearish. However, presidential popularity declined significantly in 2009, offering the stock market bull inspiration. Presidential popularity peaked three months after the inauguration. The stock market bottomed, for the most part, in late March 2009, where the stock market bull resumed directional dominance. Presidential popularity did return to post inauguration heights through 2013. It seldom does until their final year in office when the populace takes pity on the lame duck incumbent’s ineptness, as political orators are empty of substance. Despite their incessant claims to the contrary, there is nothing politicians can do for you. They, however, rob some to the benefit of others (primarily their pals and vote buying). Unfortunately, there are a finite number of cycles to this before degeneration manifests the system’s collapse.

 

On Oct 17, 2008, there were 19-stocks and funds with hold signals, enjoying an average gain of 136.9% since their respective buy signals an average of 87.8-weeks earlier. That annualized at 81.1%. There were 345-stocks and funds tracked at that time. There were 326-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 27.3% since their sell signals an average of 20.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2008. There had been 207-year-to-date buy signals and 430-YTD sell signals through this weekend in 2008. This was the year of the great stock market crash, as phony political leadership do what they do. And then their little, but selfish, three-pound brains, blame the crash on big business and capitalism, despite them being 100% responsible for the fiasco. The stock market bear was accelerating its dominance in early 2008 with a few false bounces from phony governmental interventions and the profound stupidity from their “too big to fail” paradigm. Delaying the inevitable only worsens its magnitude at the conclusion.

 

On Oct 12, 2007, there were 295-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 345-tracked by the Indicant at that time. They were up by an average of 142.8% since their buy signals an average of 110.3-weeks earlier, annualizing at 67.3%. There were 41-avoided stocks and funds since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 32.1-weeks earlier. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 14.6% at that time. There were eight buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2007. There had been 134-year-to-date buy signals and 154-YTD sell signals through this weekend in 2007. Democrats and their socialistic agenda were the new majority of the incoming Congress that year. The stock market bull performed okay during the first half of 2007. The socialistic agenda started to take its toll on the capital markets in the summer of 2007. After six months of democratic control of the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House with liberal leaning George W. Bush, the stock market peaked in 2007.

           

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying and selling have been limited for the past several months, as the bull’s perseverance has prevented a bear market for quite some time. That reduces the number of stocks in temporary decline to earn new buy signals. Although Mid-term attributes are not strongly bullish, the stock market bear has been unable to gain traction with only minor pestering during the heart and soul of bearish seasonality.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

   

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, daily, and not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 213.9% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 492.9% and the S&P500 is up 228.7% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 432.1% since October 9, 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was bearish by 31.3% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.

 

The NASDAQ was down 37.4% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was up 45.5% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 4.1% in the meandering bear market of 2004 dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

 

It was down 4.2% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.

           

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 6.9% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.

 

The NASDAQ was up 16.2% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.

 

The NASDAQ was down by 30.5% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.

                       

It was up 35.7% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6 % from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

 

The NASDAQ was up 7.6% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate. It was down 1.2% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 1.8%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.

           

The NASDAQ was up 16.8% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  

 

It was up 26.4% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  

           

The NASDAQ was up 0.9% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it, but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.

 

The NASDAQ was up 1.3% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.

 

The NASDAQ was up 4.1% in on this weekend in 2016. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.

 

The Dow is up 15.7% this year. The S&P500 is up 14.0% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 22.7% this year. The S&P600 is up 8.4% this year.  The Dow Transports is up 9.9% this year. The stock market bull is stable, so far, this year. The threat of near-term bearishness is subsiding and nearing evaporation.

 

The Dow is up 61.5% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 131.0% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is          up 63.1% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.

 

All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so, but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 33.4%.

 

The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 30.8%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is again above that peak by 29.5%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 35.3%.

 

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

 

The Dow is up 249.3% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 420.7% and the S&P500 is up 277.4% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 399.7% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive.          

 

The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior now. That is a temporary condition.

 

The reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains mildly threatening. Always keep in mind, publicly generated information can be biased for political purposes, as opposed to simply publishing accurate information. The manifestation of “making America great again” can be inflationary. However, a simplified tax code could be offsetting to that threat.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased 25-basis points on week-ending Jun 15, 2017, following similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016 and Mar 17, 2017. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections.  Rates continue moving laterally and not threatening to the stock market bull.

 

The Federal Reserve’s Quarter 2, 2017 promise of being passive on rate hikes remains as policy. The 3-month T-Bill continues flattening. Despite that flattening, it remains with Red Bull status. Of course, rates remain at low levels and thus non-threatening to the stock market bull. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. At this point, however, flattening is supportive of the stock market bull. If the Fed remains slow in rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing stock prices, inflationary pressures will be unfriendly to the stock market bull. Irresponsible behavior is not immune to punishment.

 

The Euro remains with Red Bull status, arguing with its ten-year bearish trend. It is increasingly a strong Red Bull. It, like most other currencies, strengthened with Yellen’s Quarter 2, 2017 strategy. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.16 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.20. The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It being a Yellow Bear is increased strength against the U.S. dollar. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.31CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values exceeding $2.99CA to $2.51US.

           

The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 188-169-Yen/U.S. dollar. It has been strengthening the past few weeks and nearing potential for new cycle of strengthening, which is a Yellow Bear condition for the U.S. dollar relative to the yen). The British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull Status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.28 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.77 by Dec 31, 2020.

                                   

Despite bearishness in two of the past three weeks and related short-term avoid signals, gold continues holding on to its Red Bull status on Fed passiveness in their rate hikes and the corresponding weakening dollar.  That suggests inflationary expectations. The 2020-mean forecast is just above $1,292/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $610/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil achieved Red Bull status on Dec 22, 2016, while returning to Yellow Bear status on Jul 7, 2017 and escaping that the very next week on Jul 14, 2017.  It returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 2017. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $48/bbl.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures succumbed to the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 10, 2017. It abandoned Yellow Bear status on May 26, 2016, following 88-weeks of being one. On Jan 6, 2017, it regained Red Bull status, while again losing it on Mar 17, 2017. It bounced strongly bullish with US dollar weakening, but continues being stable. This is the longest period of stability in the past 20-years. It remains in the zone of neutrality, which is not threatening to the stock market bull with respect to inflation. The 2020 mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020.

 

Mortgage rates abandoned Yellow Bear status on Nov 3, 20 16 with a sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not so much for those desiring home ownerships. On Nov 25, 2016, it lost that Red Bull status. Since then, they have been wavering and relatively stable, but with some recent aggression back to Yellow Bear, which is bullish for home buyers. However, as you can see, it is resisting becoming a Yellow Bear. All forecasts are still bearishly directed and until the change, the trend remains bearish, which is good for home buying. The new problem fomenting is finding enough non-lazy people to construct new homes. Also, talented home builders cannot be blamed for being shy on aggressive building as they are more understanding of how politicians can be destructive to their well-being.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.         

 

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. It is up 4.2% since then, annualizing at 5.6%.

 

Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also enjoyed a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. It is up 3.0% since then, annualizing at 4.0%. The above Vanguard fund usually outperforms this one.

 

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Oct 13, 2017. The energy sector is gaining bullish breadth.

 

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, endured a sell signal on May 5, 2017. It is down 4.4% since then.

 

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, endured a sell signal on Oct 10, 2014. It is down 41.9% since then. This fund did not participate with the small energy bull in 2016 and not participating in the prevailing petroleum mini-rally.

 

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, endured a sell signal on May 26, 2016. It is up 1.2% since then.

 

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 14, 2017. It is up 3.7% since then, annualizing at 46.4%.           

           

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Oct 2, 2017. It is up 2.7% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 19, 2017. It is up 4.9% since then, annualizing at 20.4%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all ten major indices and enjoying bullish unanimity. The existing bulls are up by an average of 31.6% since their bull signals an average of 77.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 21.2%. There are no Mid-term Indicant bears.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $62.769-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.429-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.193-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.504-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $1.865-million. That beats buy and hold’s $660,580 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $34.491-million. That is better than buy and hold $711,407 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,730.8%, 112.4%, 182.3%, and 4,748.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 98.3% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009 and 2013, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those two presidential post-election years. It will be interesting to see if those two violations to historical normalcy of bearishness will also occur in 2017. So far, that expectation of historical normalcy is dim. Interestingly, the Federal Reserve has been demonstrating passivity the past several months. That indeed may reverse prior potential Fed-induced stock market bearishness for 2017. However, that could inspire inflationary pressures.

 

The next buying opportunity for this fund would occur this year, if only using the political cycle. It would not be surprising to see inflation as a contributing factor to that. Increasing abuses of the executive branch of government has the potential of obsoleting nearly 200-years of high correlations between the stock market and political cycles. It will be interesting to see if Trump can expose those abuses and shut them down.

 

Deflationary threats continue subsiding, but not yet eliminated. Continued elevation of interest rates by the Fed can reinvoke deflationary threats. Trump’s relaxation of federal income taxes on the contrary offer inflationary opportunities.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 690.1% (annualized at 26.5%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,354-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Oct 13-The stock market bull along all Indicant cycles remains solid. Force vectors are shifting back to a bearish direction along the short-term cycle. This is not yet a short-term threat to the stock market due to force residing in bullish domains. However, do not be surprised at some lateral or mildly bearish behavior in the next few days.

 

Please review the below sections for more insight.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled one new bull and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 10 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 13.1-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 6.6%; Annualized Performance: 26.4%

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 4.1-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -8.0%

Configured Advantage: Near-term Stock Market Bull, effective May 26, 2017.

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 11 of 12

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 12

Position Advantage: Near-term Stock Market Bull, effective Sep 5, 2017.

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 76.0-wks.               

Quick-term Bull Performance: 30.9%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 21.2%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term: Bears: 4.1-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -8.0%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 10 of 12           

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1 of 12

Configured Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull, effective Nov 7, 2016

           

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-co            ntrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 2 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 2 of 11                        

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 7 of 11

Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull, effective Aug 31, 2017.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-Oct 13-Significantly lower volume suggests the power investors did not work on Friday and thus a relaxed posture in confidence in the stock market bull.

 

Thu-Oct 12- Reduced volume on mild bearishness is symptomatic of an impotent stock market bear.

 

Wed-Oct 11-Above average volume on mild stock market bullishness suggests increasing confidence in the validity of the stock market bull.

 

Tue-Oct 10-Increased volume on stock market bullishness is symptomatic of a strong stock market bull.

 

Mon-Oct 9-Reduced volume on mild bearishness is symptomatic of an impotent stock market bear.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 9.0% since their buy signals an average of 15.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 31.1%.

 

The NTI is avoiding five ETFs. They are down by an average of 4.4% since their sell signals 1.2-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 26

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 2        

Advantage: Near-term stock market bull, as of Aug 22, 2017.

 

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary    

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 27.1% since their buy signals an average of 59.2-weeks ago. That annualizes at 23.8%.                                                                                                                                                                

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETFs. They are down by an average of 70.0% since their sell signals an average of 75.4-weeks ago.                                              

         

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses         

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 25

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0    

Advantage: Quick-term stock market bull, effective Nov 7, 2016

 

Reverse Tangential Projections

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

The stock market bull was nearly non-descriptive last week with the major indices rising by a mere 0.3% last week. Nine of the ten major indices were bullish this past week. The lone bearishly behaving one was the S&P600. It was down 0.7%. Overall, the stock market bear continues being inept during the heart and soul of bearish seasonality in the normally bearish presidential post-election year.

 

As stated the past seven weeks, “interest rates are no longer an imminent enemy of the stock market bull, as Yellen continues with passivity.” Gold, however, is rebounding a bit from its near-term bearishness, offering renewed inflationary expectations.

           

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

10/15/2017

 

 

 

 

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