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Weekly Stock Market Report

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May 24, 2020 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 5, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

                                                        

The Stock Market Argues Against The Dreaded M-Shape

Last week’s bullish stock market argued loudly against the dreaded M-Shape. The first leg of M is the bull market leading up to the Covid-19 bear market, which is the second leg. Bear markets typically endure a bullish bounce, following their initial decline. That is the third leg commonly referred to as the Gompertz phenomenon. The fourth leg is a deepening bear market. There were several M-Shapes during the 1929-1933 bear market. You can click this sentence to view them.

 

Although history tends to repeat itself, it is seldom with exact congruency. Despite that short-coming, it is seldom a waste of time to perform a comparative analysis. Compare the 1929-1933-DJIA chart to the prevailing chart. As you can see, there is some mild congruency with strong hopes that it will not manifest into an exact one. In 1929, following Bear Signal #03 on Nov 1, 1929, there was the classical Gompertz bounce. Biological organisms typically jerk a bit at the end of their life. The same is true for stock market bulls. The DJIA finally enjoyed a new bull signal, #1, on Mar 30, 1930 are about five months later. That was when it finally crossed above the short-cycle blue curve. It was not a good bull signal, succumbing to the Gompertz phenomenon. That bull quickly perished a few weeks later on May 9, 1930. There were several other M-Shaped Gompertz phenomena along the 90% drop in that stock market bear.

 

Rather than pumping money into the economy, political leadership at that time raised taxes. They had the gall to do that after their idiotic passage of Smoot Hawley. As long as political leadership is not subjected to the laws they pass, they will be pretty much stupid. They are so extraordinarily selfish and narcissistic, that every day of you fun lifestyle is at threat by their very existence. As demonstrated by several governors, they enjoy the limelight and their increased powers. They should be arrested and jailed for violating their oath to the U.S. Constitution. It would be interesting for the state police or national guard, who also pledged their oath to the U.S. Constitution to arrest the governors for their violation. That would be very newsworthy, contrary to the mumbo-jumbo low IQ lunatics in contemporary news media.

 

Most claim they are following the science. It is absolutely impossible for those who do not understand science to follow it. Rest assured, most of your political leadership does not understand science. You can read their pathetic economic leeching resumes in several media. Most have been economic leeches their entire adult life. An economic leech cannot make good decisions about anything.

 

Modern day intellectuals are rapidly approaching moronic IQ. The intellectual elites are well read people. Reading is supposed to make you smart. Well, it depends upon what you read. Reading Karl Marx will offer intellectual insights to economic sociopathic behavior. He had little regard for other human beings while he held his pathetic existence in high regard. Reading the Limits to Growth will make you believe that the earth’s resources can only support a few people, as opposed to billions. Communism manifest from that. Keep everyone poor so us in the politburo will have what is leftover. Rules for Radical allows you to foment your own reality despite the existence of reality, which by the way, has always and will always obsolete personalized reality. Reading those sorts of books allows one to be well-read, but without identifying how doing so has dumb downed the reader. The authors of those book are economic sociopaths. They have no idea of how or what makes things work. Their inferior existence forces them to want to participate. Their noisy participation is destructive because well-read lunatics believe what they read.

 

Getting back to the stock market, the DJIA’s prevailing bear signal was triggered on Feb 28, 2020. It has been nearly two months since that bear signal. The DJIA has not yet crossed above the short-cycle blue curve. That is required for the next bull signal. You should notice on the very top of the prevailing DJIA chart that its force vector shifted into a bullish direction. That also occurred in early 1930 with it being down by 25% from its peak and about level to Bear Signal #03. Shortly after doing that, Bear Signal #02 was triggered, before it resumed it bearish path.

 

History may not repeat exactly. It is highly unlikely it will, as politicians pumped money into the economy to help fight off the next Great Depression, as opposed to accelerating economic decline with tax hikes in the early 1930’s. However, pumping money into the economy to the extent they did is not going to conclude without some punishment. All governments and civilizations have always collapsed. Success breeds failure. Excessive debt is the more common culprit. When economic leeches outnumber and overpower economic producers, the collapse will start. As you can see from some state governors, they are doing their part to get the ball rolling on the collapse. They do not care. They only want the limelight and too stupid to understand that when the lights go out, there is no limelight.

 

Despite the stock market’s argument with the dreaded M-Shape, do not think the bull-bear battle has concluded.

 

Please read the next section.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 2-Red Bulls, 8-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: The NASDAQ-(Chart) and the NASDAQ100-(Chart) remain as the only Red Bulls. Those two indices are above Red by an average of 11.0%. The other eight major indices are below Red by an average of 7.0%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 2-Blue Bulls, 8-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The NASDAQ100-(Chart) and the NASDAQ-(Chart) remain as the only major indices with Blue Bull status. They are above blue by an average of 6.3%. The other eight major indices are below blue by an average of 5.2%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 2-Yellow Bears, 8-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: They two Yellow Bears are the DJT-(Chart) and the S&P600-(Chart). They are below Yellow by an average of 4.9%. The other seven non-Yellow Bears are above yellow by 20.1%. The gap between non-Yellow bears and Yellow bears remains discerning.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: All major indices are now above green by 13.7%. That is increasingly bullish now that prior gaps have been eliminated.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 10-Reds Higher than Green; 0-Green Higher Than Red

              Comment: The ten major red curves are above the green curve by an average of 24.4%. This attribute is irrelevant until after the next major bullish swing when green curves will cross above the red curves.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 9-bullish domains, 1-bearish domains

              Comment: Only one major index is enduring bearishly positioned force vectors. It is the DJU-(Chart). That is more supportive of the stock market bull, but most are just barely into bullish domains. They need to hold there and move upward for the stock market bull to obviate its dominance.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 9-above pressure, 1-below pressure

              Comment: The DJU-(Chart) fell below Vector Pressure two weeks ago and remains as the lone culprit.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 7-bullish domains, 3-bearish domains

              Comment: The majority remains in bullish domains. That is bullish.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 7-bullishly directed, 3-bearishly directed

              Comment: Seven major indices shifted their force vectors back into a bullish direction, supporting the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 9-bullishly directed, 1-bearishly directed

            Comment: The DJU’s-(Chart) vector pressure shifted back into a bearish direction this past week, offering the stock market bear a glimmer of hope.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Last week’s bearishly directed attributes shifted back in favor of the stock market bull this past week. The only concern is the DJU’s-(Chart) bearishly positioned vector pressure. The concern is minor, as the DJU seldom leads bear markets and it can be mildly bearish while the overall stock market is bullish.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. Of course, the website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no-buy signals and no-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 168 of the 316-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 292.8% that annualizes to 70.8%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 168-stocks and funds for an average of 215.1-weeks. There have been 107-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 148-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 21.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 70.8-weeks ago. There have been 196-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on May 24, 2019 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 228-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 248.8-weeks. They were up by an average of 215.3% (annualized at 45.0%). There were 84-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 28.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 96.3-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were no buy signals and nine sell signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 81-buy signal and 29-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 246-stocks on May 25, 2018. They were up 224.2% since their buy signals an average of 256.5-weeks earlier, annualizing at 45.5%. There were 73-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 84.1-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2018. There had been 33-buy signals and 57-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 252-stocks and funds of the 301-tracked on May 26, 2017. They were up by an average of 189.7%, annualizing at 45.9%, since their respective buy signals an average of 215.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 45-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 22.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 100.8-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 24-year-to-date buy signals and 20-sell signals through this weekend in 2017. This year was profoundly bullish, following the fake stock market bear on election night in 2016. Wall Street liberals are real and they errantly thought the world was ending on Trump’s election that evening. A few days after the 2016 presidential election and Trump’s victory, the stock market bull stampeded with several record setting events. The number of “real investors” wiped out the Wall Street liberals as Trumponomics is very real, as opposed to the phoniness of the Wall Dtreet liberals and their DC brethren.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 210-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on May 20, 2016. They were up by an average of 149.0%, annualizing at 36.7% since their respective buy signals an average of 220.9-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 128-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an

average of 16.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 61.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signald on this weekend in 2016. There had been a total of 32-buy signals and 68-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. The stock market endured some bearish cycles in this year as Hillary Clinton led in the polls. Once she lost, the stock market bull stampeded to the north with phenomenal ferocity.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

As political meddling in the U.S. economy continues with more to come, set tight stop losses. Although the stock market bull holds an edge over the stock market bear from last week’s behavior, the bull-bear battle continues and as long as that battle persists, the risk/reward ratio remains high. Another way of saying this is that projected reward/risk ratio remains low. The Indicant is now 42.5% out of the market which is below being out by over 74% in March. The rebound following the late Feb and early Mar, 173-sell signals was followed by 101 buy signals since Apr 10, 2020. With that, the bullish rebound remains weaker than the bearish onslaught from COVID-19. Keep your eye on the NASDAQ100 and NASDAQ. They are the only two major indices with bullish configurations. If they succumb to the stock market bear, there will be more sell signals.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition.

 

Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics will be inflationary and heightened even more with money supply increasing far above earned money. Despite that eventuality, inflation remains tame for the time being. The annual inflation rate is being reported at only 0.3% to date this year. Oil prices, although recently rising, are down 41.9% from this time one year ago, despite price jumps in two of the past three weeks. Commodities are deflating, however.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate decreased by 100-basis points on Mar 20, 2020, following a 50-basis point cut on weekending Mar 6, 2020.  That followed less aggressive decreases on Aug 2, 2019, Sep 19, 2019, and Nov 2, 2019. These less aggressive decreases were miniscule to the increases on Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018, Sep 30, 2018, and Dec 21, 2018. High unemployment and semi-germ warfare from China are confronting the stock market bull.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill fell to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 19, 2019.  After falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear, it started a rebound attempt on weekending Jan 10, 2020, but fell deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 6, 2020 and rapidly falling even more since then and below zero on weekending Mar 19, 2020, with a small bounce north of zero on weekend Apr 3, 2020 and holding there the past few weeks. The Covid-19 is being blamed, but the economic lockdown is the prime cause.

                                                                                

The Euro escaped Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jan 10, 2020, but fell back into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Feb 14, 2020 and barely remaining there. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.93 to $0.94. The absence of variation in its steady decline is impressive.

 

The Canadian dollar climbed above Red (weakening) on weekending Mar 13, 2020 after climbing above Yellow (weakening) on weekending Aug 23, 2019. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.32CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.58CA to $1.63CA.

 

The Japanese Yen continues in a steady downward drift (strengthening), falling barely into the domain of the Yellow Bear (stronger). This currency has been and remains very stable since 2015. Its statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 131-143-Yen/U.S. dollar. Its flatness the past three years is unusual. That helps international stabilization, which is always welcome by the stock market bull. It also strengthened with the mild rate reduction by the U.S. Fed on weekending Aug 2, 2019, but with limited impact on the Sep 19, 2019 rate reduction and continued steadiness with crazy Coronavirus reactions since early Feb 2020.

 

British Pound’s 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.30 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $1.08-$1.14 by Dec 31, 2020. Since its mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it drifted, bearishly. It climbed above Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 18, 2019 and above Red on weekending, Dec 5, 2019, and again falling below Red on weekending Feb 7, 2020. After resting in the zone of neutrality, it fell into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 13, 2020 but has since strengthened and stabilizing somewhat in the domain of the Yellow Bear.

 

The Bitcoin lost Red Bull status on weekending Feb 20, 2020, after regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 13, 2020 and falling into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 13, 2020. It climbed out Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 3, 2020 with massive greenback printing in overzealous responses to the Coronavirus attack from China. It remains in the zone of neutrality (between Red and Yellow) with some bullishness to it. It remains just below the domain of the Red Bull.

                       

Gold climbed sharply above Red on weekending Jun 21, 2019.  After a long rest, it remains as a strong Red Bull, but falling sharply for four weeks until bullish rebound on Apr 16, 2020. Prior deflationary threats are subsiding, and consequently gold remains bullish. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,305/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $1,000-$1,120/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil fell into Yellow Bear status on Feb 6, 2020. After falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear, it rebounded strongly on weekending Apr 6, 2020 and continuing its rebound with OPEC/Russian production cuts. Its recent movement is congruent to stock market bearishness and stock market bullishness. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $20 to $22. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $54/bbl.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures escaped Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 13, 2019 after falling into Yellow Bear status on Nov 23, 2018. It is now finding a nestling location but well into the depths of the domain of the Yellow Bear. The 2020-mean forecast is at $180, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting $110-$105 by 2020. Its current configuration offers no support for inflation. It has been uncharacteristically steady for several years. Prior threatening deflationary concerns are subsiding.

 

Mortgage rates fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  They remain as Yellow Bears. This remains a great time to finance real estate for those willing to incur debt during uncertainties from the Coronavirus and the more damaging sociopathic politicians.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak. The coronavirus had been disrupting that line of thinking, but nearing its disruptive end.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.          

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for two major indices. They are up by an average of 11.0%, annualizing at 104.3%. Those bulls are the NASDAQ-(Chart) and the NASDAQ100-(Chart). The DJU-(Chart) endured a bear signal last week and strongly rebounded this past week. Do not be fooled by that response. Although it may turn out to be legitimate, configurations are a bit shaky at this point.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bear for seven major indices. They are down by an average of 4.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear an average of 10.6-weeks ago. The most bearish is the S&P600, which is down 12.4% since its bear signal on Feb 28, 2020. Interestingly, it was up a whopping 8.8% last week. The least bearish is the S&P100. It is up 2.6% since its Feb 28, 2020 bear signal. The reason it has not yet earned a new bull signal due to it not eclipsing the short-cycle blue curve. It is nearing the bullish Red Curve though. Eclipsing that would qualify a new bull signal as well.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $67.052-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.667-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.629-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.740-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.124-million. That beats buy and hold’s $932,459 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $29.860-million. That is better than buy and hold $606,436 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,828.3%, 208.5%, 227.7%, and 4,923.8%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a week or two for the statistics to settle.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.5% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although poll accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the stock market bull. Of course, if that happens, you would not be allowed to benefit from that opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you. Politburo’s confiscate. This fund remains too depressed for a coronavirus buy at this point. At this point it is better to purchase related ETF, QID, when you see a buy signal.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 745.2% (annualized at 26.0%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,490-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-May 22-As you will see in the Weekly Stock Market Report, most Mid-term Indicant force vectors shifted into a bullish direction. That is indeed bullish. However, three major indices did not. With that, it is still not a thoroughbred bull. Also, the short cycle blue curves have made it difficult for the major indices to cross above them, which is a requirement for a new bull signal along the mid-term cycle. However, the seven rising force vectors justify a bit more short-term risk for the expected short-term rewards. With that, a few buy signals will be pulsed along the short-term cycle as long as the stock market bear is passive.

 

Thu-May 21-Seesawing continues along a banana republic cycles. Most indices are finding difficulty in eclipsing Yellow. Both the stock market bull and bear are demonstrating obstinance. With that, the bull-bear battle continues. Tech companies are doing well with their developing software to track and spy on you. Despite that evilness, they are bullish and continue holding those with hold signals. Most are Red Bulls. Communists unleashed the virus from China and now America’s communistic governors are demonstrating their commitment to communism. Again, politicians are sick people. The masses allow their existence and their punishment is more or less self-inflicted.

 

Wed-May 20-Despite seesaw stock market behavior, the stock market bull has been favored this week. Despite that, the seesawing can change directional intensity quickly. There will be few short-term new bull signals and buy signals until the Mid-term Indicant force vectors abandon their bearish direction. Some qualified for new near-term buy signals today, but the signals were not released due to stock market instability. 

 

Tue-May 19-Partially contrarian ETF#11-GLD-( Chart) was bullish while all non-contrarians were bearish. That combination is consistent with the theme, the stock market bull/bear battle is not over. Partially contrarian ETF#14TLT-( Chart) is barely hanging onto its hold signal along the near-term cycle. That contrasts with the theme and favoring the stock market bull. The strongly bullish ETF’s (Red Bulls) are with very bullish underlying attributes, while the weaker ETF’s are mildly bullish with some significant bearish attributes. Healthy stock market bulls do not discriminate, as all non-contrarians are invited to stampede in a bullish direction. Overall, the short-term cycle is mildly bullish where the strong need to rest and the weak need to catch up. As long as there are no new sell/bear signals, the weak are catching up.

 

Mon-May 18-Coronavirus vaccine, mRNA-1273, was rumored to be effective. One cannot be sure of who really knows this or how accurate it is. Perhaps it could have been “press released” by someone who bought call options last Friday. Such press releases are classically followed by contradicting messages later. That is the nature of freedom of speech relationship with the stock market. But rest assured, the stock market always finds the truth. Despite all of that, the two strong indices, NASDAQ and NASDAQ100, positioned themselves to much stronger positions. That dampens some concerns regarding another bearish slide. However, the bull-bear battle is not over. There are still many bearish attributes along the short-term cycle. Until force crosses back into bullish domains and above pressure, the stock market bear can still attack.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled two new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 4 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 6.3-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 11.3%; Annualized Performance: 93.3%.

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 6 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 2.2-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -1.5%

Near-term Performance Advantage: May 13-Stock Market Bear

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 6 of 12 

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 1 of 12 (Contrarian VIX)

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Apr 9-Stock Market Bull

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 4 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 5.9-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 9.4%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 83.1%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 8 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 10.1-weeks-avg.     

Quick-term Bear Performance: -12.0%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2 of 12 (The lone Red Bulls are NASDAQ/NASDAQ100)     

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 7 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Feb 27, 2020-Quick-term Advantage to Bear

                       

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction:  11 of 11                                        

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 9 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull-effective Apr 8, 2020.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-May 22-Increased volume on mild and mixed stock market behavior suggests an increasing comfort level at prevailing levels. With that, the stock market bull and bear remain without an advantage over the other.

 

Thu-May 21-Reducing volume on stock market bearishness is not supportive of its continuation.

 

Wed-May 20-Lower volume on stock market bullishness is not supportive of that bullishness.

 

Tue-May 19-Lighter volume on strong stock market bearishness than yesterday’s volume on strong stock market bullishness mildly favors the stock market bull. It is very mild favoritism.

 

Mon-May 18-Stronger volume on extraordinarily strong stock market bullishness is supportive of a substantive bull market, but not yet obviating directional intensity in that direction. Both volume indicators have been dropping with stock market bullishness. However, they are well entrenched in the domain of high stock market interest and dampening the effects of falling volume indicators.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated three buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 18-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 8.4% since their buy signals an average of 6.1-weeks ago, annualizing at 70.7%.

 

The NTI is avoiding 13-ETFs. They are up by an average of 0.9% since their sell signals an average of 4.7-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 2

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 15

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bull Apr 9, 2020

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated two buy signals and no sell signals.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 17.6% since their buy signals an average of 11.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 58.6%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 18-ETFs. They are down by an average of 16.1% since their sell signals an average of 11.2-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 6

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 14

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bear Mar 9, 2020

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:    

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

As stated last week, “the NASDAQ-(Chart) and NASDAQ100-(Chart) remain as the lone Mid-term Indicant bulls. They are the lone protectors of the stock market bull.” The remainder of the major indices are still enduring bearish configurations. Last week’s strong stock market bullishness improved that favorability to the stock market bullishness but with minimal reward/risk ratios,

 

The stock market bull needs the NASDAQ-(Chart) and NASDAQ100-(Chart) to retain their status as Red Bulls and force vector must shift back into a bullish direction before the stock market bull can resume its path.

 

Set very tight stop losses, as the stock market bear remains too strongly configured with the weakening bullish rally. 

 

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Indicant Conclusion

Force vector behavior is increasingly unfriendly to the stock market bull with a majority of the major indices in  a strong bearish direction. Force vectors remain below vector pressure. Until force moves above pressure, the stock market bull remains absent.  

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

05/24/2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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