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Weekly Stock Market Report

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Dec 9, 2018 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 12, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report


The Lone Stock Market Hero

The weaker got much weaker and the strong only mildly weaker. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 4.9% last week, while Yellow Bears, such as General Electric-(Chart) were down more than their hosting index. Contrasting GE with Boeing-(Chart), which is a Red Bull, did not go down, as much as the Yellow Bears. The stock market fell more deeply for Yellow Bears than Red Bulls.


Overall, the eight major indices were down 4.6% last week. The Dow Transports-(Chart) was the strongest bear, dropping 8.0%. The Dow Transports is germane to the Dow Theory Forecast and worthy of monitoring. As you can see from its chart, it fell below the short-cycle green curve for the second time this year. The first time it did that a few weeks ago, it enjoyed a strong bullish bounce. However, it did not earn a new bull signal since its Mid-term Indicant required attributes never complied to designed requirements.


The Dow Jones Utilities-(Chart) was the only index with a bullish conclusion last week. It was up a solid 1.6% last week. Only three of the major indices remain with bull signals. They are the Dow Jones Industrial Average-(Chart), the Dow Utilities-(Chart), and the Dow Composites-(Chart). The other seven major indices along the Mid-term Indicant cycle are enduring bear signals. You can view all ten major index signals by clicking this sentence.


The Dow Utilities-(Chart) is the most interesting; not the Dow Transport, which is the second most interesting. The difference is that the Dow Transports acquiesced to the stock market bear, while the Dow Utilities has impressively rejected the stock market bear advances.


The Dow Utilities-(Chart) is the only major index with bullish vector pressure. As you can see from its charts, vector pressure (the gold colored curve at the top of the chart) started falling earlier this year, like all of the major indices. However, it is the only major index where vector pressure has not yet fallen into bearish domains. That contrasts with its behavior in 2008, where it was the last index to succumb to the stock market bear. Click this sentence to view that 2008-behavior. Its profound resistance to bearish ambition is indeed impressive.


The next section discusses the major index attributes one by one. The Dow Utilities-(Chart) is the only major index where all of its attributes are bullish along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. Other than contrarian VIX, he Dow Utilities is the lone non-contrarian bull along the short-term cycle. Click this sentence to view all the major indices along short-term cycle. As long as the Dow Utilities along the Mid-term Indicant cycle remains bullish the stock market bear can only pester, as opposed to dominating.


Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.


Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.


Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 1-Red Bulls, 9-Non-Red Bulls

            Comment: The lone Red Bull is the Dow Utilities-(Chart). This helps protect the stock market bull, but the stock market bear is gaining some traction. The nine non-Red Bulls are below Red by 3.6%.


Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls- Click for Explanation2): 2-Blue Bulls, 8-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The two Blue Bulls are the DJU-(Chart) and DJC-(Chart). The two Blue Bulls are above Blue by an average of 1.1%. The eight non-Blue Bulls are below Blue by 3.1%, offering the stock market bear an advantage.


Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: Fortunately, none of the major indices are Yellow Bears. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 18.7% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance and the economy is not being threatened. The gap between prevailing prices and the Yellow Bear is too wide to be considered where the next bear signals occur. Bear signals occur at falling below Green with bearish force and pressure.


Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 8-Green Bears, 2-Non-Green Bears

                Comment: The two non-green bears are the DJIA-(Chart) and DJU-(Chart). Combined, they are above Green by an average of 3.4%. The remaining eight Green Bears are below Green by an average of 2.7%. That is bearish.


Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 8-Reds Higher than Green; 2-Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: This attribute has been identifying an overheated bull market for several months and in the process of resetting with the new bear signals. The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) have not enjoyed Green crossing above Red in the current bull cycle. Overall, is Red is above Green by an average of 1.5%. Once Green falls below Red, stock market normalcy should return based on prevailing and projected economic fundamentals, regardless if bearish or bullish.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 1-bullish domains, 9-bearish domains

                Comment: The only force vector remaining in bullish domains is the DJU-(Chart). Without that, the stock market bear would be enthusiastic.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 3-above pressure, 7-below pressure

                Comment: The majority of force is again below pressure, offering the stock market bear an advantage.


Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 1-bullish domains, 9-bearish domains

                Comment: Only the DJU-(Chart) remains in bullish domains of the major indices. The stock market bull cannot guarantee its sustainability until vector pressure returns to bullish domains. This remains as a dominant attribute and favors the stock market bear.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 1-bullish, 9-bearish

                Comment: Nine of the ten force vectors reversed direction last week, favoring the stock market bear.


Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 8-bullish, 2-bearish

            Comment: As stated last week, this attribute continues increasing its support of the stock market bull but needs to get into bullish domains before being fully meaningful to the stock market bull.


Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.


Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Force vectors and vector pressure are the predominant attributes to monitor. Force shifted back into a bearish direction last week and most remain below pressure. New bull signals require force above pressure and index values Blue.


Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.


Rangold, NAS#64-GOLD-(Chart), was up 6.9% last week, as the largest gainer among the NASDAQ100 stocks. It is also up 4.1% since the Indicant’s Apr 13, 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this stock as last week’s rise appears fake. American Airlines, NAS#04-AAL-(Chart), was down 16.4% despite falling energy costs, but reacting a bit to Saudi Royalties decision to turn valves to the left. It is also down 7.9% since the Indicant’s Oct 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this stock as this airline, like most others, continues making human flight more miserable. Earnings should not conflict with quality, but the management teams in the airline industry have no idea what that is about.


Enzo Biotech, ISTK#47-ENZ-(Chart), was up 4.9% as the most bullish among this group of stocks. However, it is down 41.8% since the Indicant’s Jun 15, 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. McDermont, ISTK#66-MDR-(Chart), was down 13.4% last week, as the most bearish and down 47.0% since the Indicant’s Oct 19, 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.


None of the Dow30 stocks were bullish last week. The least bearish was Exxon, DJIA#28-XOM-(Chart), falling 2.3% last week. It is up 2.8% since the Indicant’s Nov 23, 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. Although turning valves to the left can prop up the price of oil, the question regarding sold volume has yet to be answered. Caterpillar, DJIA#17-CAT-(Chart), was down 8.9% as the most bearish Dow30 stock. However, it is still up 49.6% since the Indicant’s Aug 2016 buy signal. Caterpillar’s drop last week did not cause it to fall below Yellow and thus no sell signal. Its bearish pressure is unsettling.


Edison International, DJU#06-EIX-(Chart), was up 5.8% last week as the most bullish Dow Utility stock. It is also up 7.5% since the Indicant’s Nov 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear, despite last week’s jump. Williams Co, DJU#11-WMB-(Chart), was down 3.3% as the most bearish Dow Utility stock. It is also down 8.2% since the Indicant’s Oct 12, 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. This stock is among the most interesting of all tracked by the Indicant as its trading range has been uncharacteristic for the past few years.


Pro Funds Ultra Short of NASDAQ100, MF#22-USPIX-(Chart), was up 9.5% last week, as the most bullish mutual fund, tracked by the Indicant. Despite that bullishness, it is still down 98.7% since the Indicant’s Apr 2009 sell signal. This fund will be a good buy if Trump is indeed impeached. Fidelity Equity, MF#75-FWWFX-(Chart), was the most bearish mutual fund, falling 12.1% last week. This fund did pay a dividend, but it was adjusted for that. This fund is nearing Yellow Bear status.  


Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that prior to the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. 


The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and three sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  


The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 223 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 210.4% that annualizes to 42.0%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 223-stocks and funds for an average of 260.4-weeks. There have been 73-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.


The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 95-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 23.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 70.1-weeks ago. There have been 120-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.


One year ago, on Dec 8, 2017 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 267-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 234.9-weeks. They were up by an average of 195.4% (annualized at 43.3%). There were 51-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 21.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 116.0-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were no buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 80-buy signals and 64-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2017.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 249-stocks on Dec 9, 2016. They were up 153.4% since their buy signals an average of 194.8-weeks earlier, annualizing at 40.9% There were 48-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 194.8-weeks earlier. There were five buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There had been 147-buy signals and 110-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. Polls favored Hillary Clinton throughout most of that year’s election cycle. That confronted the stock market bull and encouraged the stock market bear. Presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, once said she would take corporate profits and do something better with the money. That sort of talk from an economic illiterate in a very significant political position aroused the stock market bear. The stock market bear is especially aroused when such comments stimulate applause from voting lunatics.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 248-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Dec 11, 2015. They were up by an average of 160.9%, annualizing at 37.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 222.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 82-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 25.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 74.0-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and seven sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There were 65-year-to-date buy signals and 115-sell signals at this time of year in 2015. This presidential pre-election year was somewhat uneventful and tame, following unusually strong post-election year bullishness in 2013 and a flat 2014-mid-term presidential election year.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 304-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Dec 5, 2014. They were up by an average of 140.9%, annualizing at 39.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 183.9-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 49-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 19.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 183.9-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and three sell signals on this weekend in 2014. There had been a total of 36-buy signals and 49-sell signals through this weekend in 2014. The market was mostly flat that year following the very strong 2013-bull leg that was inspired, in part, by sequestration.


There were 316-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Dec 6, 2013 since their buy signals an average of 139.7-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 102.2% (annualized at 38.1%). There were 19-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 28.8% from their respective sell signals an average of 74.8-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and two sell signals on this weekend in 2013. There had been 106-buy signals and 57-sell signals through this weekend in 2013. This was an impressively bullish year, as sequestration inspired the stock market bull along an accelerated growth plane. Although sequestered spending was minimal, the underlying principles of handcuffing the irrationality of politicians inspired the stock market bull.


The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     


The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.


Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying and selling have been limited for the past few years, as the bull’s perseverance has prevented a solid bear market for nearly just over years. That has been reducing the number of stocks in temporary decline to earn new buy signals since they have been enjoying hold signals for several years. As stated for several weeks, an increase in opportunities may emerge depending on the political spectrum. The Trump agenda will be slowed in the 2018-mid-term elections with Pelosi as House Speaker. As stated for several weeks, “that will inspire the stock market bear.” As of Nov 23, the Dow was down over 1700 points since the mid-term election. However, continuing with a republican senate, will prevent Trump’s impeachment. Despite that prevention, the stock market bear will be delighted at Pelosi in charge of the House of Representatives. The good news is that Trump will be smart enough to point out that since Pelosi has been in charge, things have worsened which should lead to a clean republican sweep in the 2020-election. That should completely demolish the democratic party. With that, a year and a half of stock market bearishness should elevate buying opportunities around mid-2019, depending on the depth of the baby bear now underway, but certainly challenged last week by the stock market bear.


Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.


The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.


The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 234.7% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 525.5% and the S&P500 is up 239.0% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 430.2% since October 9, 2002.


The NASDAQ was bearish by 18.9% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.


The NASDAQ was down 27.1% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.


The NASDAQ was up 45.1% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 5.6% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was `congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.


It was up 3.5% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.


In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 10.3% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.  


The NASDAQ was up 12.0% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. This week was extraordinarily bearish in that year, as the stock market bear had already been dominating since July of that year. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.


The NASDAQ was down by 43.1% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.


It was up 38.8% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.


The NASDAQ was up 14.5% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.


It was down 0.1% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.


The NASDAQ was up 14.3% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  


It was up 34.5% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  


The NASDAQ was up 14.5% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.


The NASDAQ was up 7.7% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.


The NASDAQ was up 7.7% on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the obvious president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.


The NASDAQ was up 26.6% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up b            y 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.3% this year. The S&P500 is down 1.5% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 1.0% this year. The S&P600 is down 3.3% this year.  The Dow Transports is down 6.2% and Dow Utilities is up 4.2% this year. The S&P400 is down 6.3% this year.


The Dow is up 72.2% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 143.8% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is up 68.2% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.


All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 36.3%.


The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 38.0%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is above that peak by 40.6%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 40.2%. Those paltry gains have not kept up with inflation. With that consideration they are still down since their 2000-peaks.


Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.


The Dow is up 272.5% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 449.3% and the S&P500 is up 289.2% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 398.0% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive, but recent rate hikes offer some arguments against being passive.           


The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish.


Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.


Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition.


Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics will be inflationary. Despite that eventuality, inflation remains tame for the time being.


The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased another 25-basis points on week-ending Sep 30, 2018. That follows similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, and Jun 15, 2018. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections. The Fed remains sensitive to political pressure, triggering early week stock market bullishness with their dovish talk. Despite that, the annual inflation rate is being reported with only 2.5% to date this year. Oil prices are down 10.5% from this time a year ago, which has a very high correlation to inflation. There is more about oil later.


The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull at 2.35%. It’s gallop to the north remains bit slower than the policy hikes. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. If the Fed slows future rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be unfriendly to the stock market bull. The opposite of all that remains in effect.


Fortunately, oil prices are in decline. That should dampen Fed enthusiasm to continue increasing interest rates, but production cuts are designed to stabilize oil prices followed by increases.


The Euro fell into Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jun 15, 2018. It is no longer resisting deepening its Yellow Bear status, while not being aggressive falling below Yellow. The prevailing bearish trend started the enjoyment of shifting bullishly for the first time in nine years in early March 2018 like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of its long-term bearish trend. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.62.


The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned to the neutral zone in late October 2017, while moving above (weakening) Red again on Dec 6, 2018. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.31CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values exceeding $1.80CA to $1.88CA.


The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 149-159-Yen/U.S. dollar. It shifted from the zone of neutrality to strengthening in late Feb 2018 and continues residence there with some recent steadying vacillating around Red (weakening). It remains in a tight trading zone, while weakening just above Red on weekending Sep 30, 2018 and again on Dec 6, 2018. It strengthens when falling. Trade tensions remain influential on international exchanges. Despite that, international currencies are remaining stable with the yen very stable the past three years.


British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency at that time. It lost Red Bull status on week-ending May 11, 2018 by falling into the zone of neutrality and then returning to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 7, 2018. It continues to resist deepening its Yellow Bear status, but a Yellow Bear nonetheless. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.28 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.87-$0.90 by Dec 31, 2020. It falling to Yellow Bear status and not yet recovering suggests its long-term bearish cycle will not be overcome on the short-term horizon.


The Bitcoin toppled $16,000 on most exchanges in late 2017 in skyrocketing fashion. It has weakened since then. It lost Red Bull status in late Mar/early Apr 2018 and finally fell into Yellow Bear status on Dec 7, 2018 at below $4,000. It can referred to as a casino security.


Gold remains a Yellow Bear, but strengthened a bit last week. It did not hold Red Bull status after regaining that status on Jan 16, 2018, dipping slightly below Red on week-ending May 11, 2018 and falling to Yellow Bear status during weekending Jul 13, 2018 and recently becoming a stronger Yellow Bear, while displaying some resistance there. Prevailing interest rates remain low, despite their recent hikes, and the corresponding weak dollar is encouraging bullish potential for gold. At some point, rising rates will strengthen the dollar, influencing gold’s bearishness. That remains as the current theme but being challenged a bit with potential weakening of the U.S. dollar. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,296/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $712-$714/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.


Oil returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 2017, but fell below Red on Oct 25, 2018 and quickly dropped to Yellow Bear status on weekending Nov 17, 2018. It continues deepening its Yellow Bear status, where there is nothing to prevent it from becoming even more bearish. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $53/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Saudi Royalty is most likely targeting $90/BBL for the time being but lost a little ground on that the past four weeks. They have now had to resort to production cuts.


The CRB Bridge Futures remains in the zone of neutrality after regaining Red Bull status on Nov 23, 2017 and after succumbing to the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 10, 2017. It repelled Yellow Bear status in early Oct 2018 with a bullish bounce consistent with economic robustness. It again fell to Yellow Bear status on weekending Nov 23, 2018, which is unusual during economic robustness. The 2020-mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020.


Mortgage rates abandoned Yellow Bear status on Nov 3, 20 16 with a sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not for those desiring home ownerships. On Nov 25, 2016, it lost that Red Bull status. Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status in early March 2018 with momentum in their bullish configurations and continuing with bullish configurations. They shifted slightly downward last week, but retained Red Bull status.


The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.


Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. This fund has remained flat to mildly bearish since then, enduing a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018 after falling to Yellow Bear status. It is down 24.7% since that sell signal.


Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also endured a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 9.4% since that sell signal.


Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, endured a sell signal on Nov 23, 2018. It is down 0.2% since then.


Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, endured a sell signal on Oct 19, 2018. It is down 26.3% since then.


State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 10.4% since that sell signal.


Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 7.6% since that sell signal.


The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Oct 11, 2018. It is down 12.0% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 25, 2018. It is down 4.3% since then.


The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Dec 6, 2018. It is up 0.8% since then, annualizing at 285.8%.


Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.    


The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for three of the ten of the major indices. The existing bulls are up by an average of 30.9% since their bull signals an average of 103.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 15.4%.


The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $66.932-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.656-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.325-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.566-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $1.959-million. That beats buy and hold’s $699,965 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $34.594-million. That is better than buy and hold $711,439 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,730.8%, 112.4%, 181.9%, and 4,748.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.


There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.


The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.


Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.


The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 98.7% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of course, if that happens, you would not enjoy the opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you.


Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds


Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.


Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.


The Dow is up 742.5% (annualized at 27.3%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,414-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.


Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.


The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Despite strong stock market bearishness, the Dow Utilities-(Chart) was bullish, albeit not very much. However, its bullishness in the face of strong stock market bearishness suggests, as it has many times to the past four-years, the stock market bear can only pester, as opposed to dominating. Unfortunately, the Dow Transports-(Chart) endured a bear signal along both the near-term and quick-term cycle as it fell into Yellow Bear status. The Dow Utilities is now preventing bearish unanimity along the short-term cycle. There were no new bears along the Mid-term Indicant cycle, but the related attributes are increasingly bearish. There will be more about that in the Weekly Stock Market Report.


Thu-The stock market was bullish this past Monday, only to be undone by the stock market bear on Tuesday. The good news about Tuesday’s strong bearishness was the Dow Utilities bullishness on that particular day. Although recent bearish is a bit unsettling, similar such events have happened before with benign results. The Dow Utilities-(Chart) enjoyed new near-term and quick-term today, despite recent bearishness, as it attained Red Bull status. The stock market bear can only pester until all major indices are committed to support that bear. That is not occurring. Also, contrarian VIX-(Chart) is not expressing enthusiasm despite being up 43.0% since the Indicant’s Oct 5, 2018 bull signal. Partially contrarians TLT-(Chart) and GLD-(Chart) enjoyed buy signals today. Anticipated inflation could be traced to that, but with declining energy costs are arguing that. Those buy signals could be short-lived. The more stable Mid-term Indicant for the major indices this weekend will indeed be interesting, as the market is now solidly inside the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.


Please review the below sections for more insight.


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.


Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and one new bear.


Number of Near-term Bulls: 2 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 4.6-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 28.7%; Annualized Performance: 325.9%-Due to contrarians-VIX bullishness.


Number of Near-term Bears: 9 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 3.6-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -2.9%

Near-term Performance Advantage: Oct 5, 2018-Stock Market Bear


Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 1 of 12. 

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 7 of 12 

Near-term Position Advantage: Dec 7, 2018-Stock Market Bear


Index Quick-term Report Card Summary  

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and one new bear.


Number of Quick-term Bulls: 2 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 4.6-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 28.7%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 325.9%-Due to contrarians-VIX bullishness.


Number of Quick-term Bears: 9 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term: Bears: 3.4-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -2.3%


Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1 of 12 

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 9 of 12


Quick-term Configured Advantage: Nov 12, 2018-Quick-term Stock Market Bear


Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 1 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 1 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 8 of 11 

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 0 of 11                                    

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 9 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bear, effective Nov 15, 2018. On Nov 20, 2018, the stock market bear annihilated the short-term stock market bull. On Nov 28, 2018, the stock market bull exacted its revenge. Both are wounded and the battle continues.


Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-Dec 7-Volume as down significantly on strong late day stock market bearishness. Both Indicant Volume Indicators are losing stock market interest, but remain in the domain of high interest. As long as they are losing interest, some stock market timidity should soon replace recent volatility.


Thu-Dec 6-Volume was up significantly on mild bullish and bearish behavior. Early day to mid-trading was strongly bearish but ended the day basically flat.


Wed-Dec 5-Market endured an unscheduled close due to George H.W. Bush funeral.


Tue-Dec 4-Volume was up even more so on bearish aggression of greater magnitude than prior day bullishness. That does not bode well for the stock market bull.


Mon-Dec 3-Volume was up mildly on strong stock market bullishness. Short-term attributes, however, suggested that bullishness as fake.



Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.


The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for eight-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 2.5% since their buy signals an average of 3.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 37.3%.


The NTI is avoiding 23-ETFs. They are down by an average of 5.3% since their sell signals 6.4-weeks ago.


Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 2

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0


Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1


Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 2

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 15


Near-term Advantage: Dec 7, 2018-Stock Market Bear


ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.


The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for eight-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 10.4% since their buy signals an average of 23.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 23.4%.


The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 23-ETFs. They are down by an average of 4.2% since their sell signals an average of 7.2-weeks ago.


Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 3

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0


Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1


Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 22


Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term stock market bear, effective Oct 10, 2018.


Reverse Tangential Projections                

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.


Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.


Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts


Indicant Conclusion

So much for Federal Reserve chit-chat of slowing interest rate hikes. That supported stock market bullishness for only one week, highlighting their irrelevance. Arresting a Chinese bureaucrat, who supposedly runs a company and lives in Canada was reported as this past week’s causation for stock market bearishness. Then other like to blame Trump’s wheeling dealing for stock market bearishness. The only consistent theme never reported on is that the Dow is down since the democrats won the house of representatives.


The stock market bull cannot dominate until vector pressure is in bullish domains and with prices above the short-cycle blue curve. That remains absent on most of the major indices last November


Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.


Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.


Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.


Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.



To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink: 


Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.


Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.


The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.


For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.


Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.


For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.


If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.


Happy Investing,


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