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Weekly Stock Market Report

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Jun 20, 2021 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 06, Issue 3 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report 

Rising Interest Rates or Inflation

Currently, the stock market apparently prefers inflation over increasing interest rates. Gold has nosedived the past week and a half. The reason is that rising interest rates strengthens the dollar. ETF#11-GLD-(Chart) endured rare bearishness this past week by losing Blue and Red Bull status, while enduring Green and Yellow Bear status in the same week. As you can see from the chart, just two weeks ago, it was configured with strong bullishness. Utterances by the Federal Reserve strongly suggested they were going to disallow inflation. They never say what else could happen.

 

Rapidly increasing interest rates can induce a recession or worse, like they did in 2004-07. As you can see from early 2004 through most of 2007, the Federal Reserve, in part, caused the Great Recession of 2008-09. Clicking this sentence will show the Fed’s managerial behavior in setting the prime rate. As you can see, the Federal Reserve has not yet increased interest rates, but just their simple utterances triggered strong stock market bearishness late last week, along with the decline of gold and other inflation fighters. Sometime the stock market bear’s arousal causes it to attack the stock market bear with tremendous impacts.

 

The uttering Fed contributed to  several near-term ETF sell signals with short-term bearishly positioned force vectors and green bears. Click this sentence where you will see that GLD was not the only ETF punished by the Fed’s stimulation to the stock market bear. You will count 16-near-term sell signals, but only four quick-term sell signals. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until prices fall below Yellow unless a loss is being endured. The Quick-term holds are still up an average of 43.0% since buy signals 47.0 weeks ago for those still being held.

 

There were five new near-term bear signals among the ten major indices. Click this sentence to view that listing. The Dow Utilities-(Chart) was the lone quick-term Bear signal in addition to its near-term bear signal. Although not yet a Yellow Bear, it was in a loss position. You may notice a profit generated quick-term bear signal just to the left of this past week’s quick-term bear signal. That is because the prior cycle actually endured a loss. With that, the Quick-term will periodically signal for profit-taking when the configured attributes misbehave with excessive random behavior.

 

Do not despair though. The more stable Mid-term Indicant did not signal any new bears among the ten major indices this past week. Click this sentence to view that listing. As you can see all ten major indices are still enjoying bull signals, including the troubled Dow Utilities-(Chart). As you can see, it is a Red Bull, but barely. You will also notice its force vector dipped into bearish domains. Since the Covid induced stock market bear, the Dow Utilities has been configured like that of a banana republic. Since Covid, it has not expressed any Red Bull comfort. Dropping below Red will trigger a new bear signal.

 

Until the ten major indices endure bear signals, the overall stock market bull remains dominant, despite short-term stock market jitteriness.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 10-Red Bulls, 0-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: All ten major indices remain as Red Bulls, which is highly desired. The ten Red Bulls are 14.0% above the bullish red curve. Red Bulls cannot endure bear signals. With that, the stock market can drop approximately by 14.0% before enduring bear signals. The ten major indices are up an average of 36.6% since their bull signals an average of 44.5-weeks ago. The two oldest bulls, NASDAQ-(Chart)  and NASDAQ100-(Chart), are over a year old and up an average of 66.4%. The NASDAQ100 was actually bullish last week despite overall stock market bearishness.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 4-Blue Bulls, 6-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: Six Blue Bulls perished last week along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. The remaining four Blue Bulls are above the blue curve by 2.1%. Blue Bulls were offering the stock market bull a strong ally, but not longer.  

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 48.0%. The absence of Yellow Bears strongly suggest economic depression is not possible now. Stock market dynamics are never wrong in predicting that, but sometimes predicts a non-existing recession. Recession or not, the Indicant’s focus is to avoid bears. It will not wait for a 48.0% drop before signaling bear. Rest assured a future Yellow Bear lurks, but not along the mid-term horizon at this time.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: Non-existing green bears are non-bearish. The ten major indices are above green by 10.6%. Green is where a bear is typically signaled, but it rises quickly, making it unlikely a bear signal would be triggered after a 10.6% stock market drop. As earlier stated, Red Bulls are immune to bear signals.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 1-Red Higher than Green; 9-Greens Higher Than Red

              Comment: The lone major red curve, belonging to the DJU-(Chart), is above the green curve by 10.2%. Each Green crossing above Red evinces increasingly overbought market conditions. The NASDAQ100’s-(Chart) green curve climbed above Red on weekending Oct 10, 2020 and the NASDAQ’s-(Chart) crossed did the same on Oct 23, 2020 for the start of a new cycle of an over-bought stock market. Those two indices remain with Green higher than Red. The concern is no longer a minor one. Those two indices have been the least bullish since their green curves crossing above their red curves. They have already honored the normal bearishness that follows such crossings and can still be bullish until the other indices are inflicted with this overbought attribute. Right now, a majority of nine endure this overbought configuration and a bit of a concern, but please read on.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 6-bullish domains, 4-bearish domains

              Comment: Six of ten force vectors inside bullish domains supports the stock market bull, but barely, and contrasting with last week when all ten were inside bullish domains.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 2-above pressure, 8-below pressure

              Comment: Only two above pressure is increasingly non-bullish.

           

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

              Comment: This important attribute remains configured with support of the stock market bull, but declining force continues to threaten the stock market bull. The stock market bear cannot dominate for long periods with pressure in bullish domains. This attribute is more stable than the bearishly configured force vectors.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 2-bullishly directed, 8-bearishly directed

              Comment: Many force vectors shifted back into a bearish direction, contrasting with last week, when most were bullishly directed. This is also non-bullish.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 2-bullishly directed, 8-bearishly directed

            Comment: This attribute continues increasing non-support for the stock market bull. This is the fifth consecutive week of limited support for the stock market bull. As long as they remain in bullish domains, the stock market bear cannot dominate for long periods. With that, this is of minor concern.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices:  Despite stock market bullishness last week, the major indices are finding resistance in their attempts to create new all-time highs.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. Of course, the website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 284 of the 315-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 274.7% that annualizes to 103.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 284-stocks and funds for an average of 137.8-weeks. There have been 46-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, hold signals are 90.2% in the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 30-stocks and funds of 315-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 39.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 192.5-weeks ago. There have been 14-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.  Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, avoid signals are 9.8% out of the market.

 

One year ago, on Jun 19, 2020, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 222-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 136.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 236.0%, annualizing at 90.0%. There were 90-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of 31.8% since their sell signals an average of 112.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and four sell signals at this time of year in 2020.  There had been 166-buy signals and 201-sell signals throughout the year on this weekend in 2020. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 70.3% in the market and avoids were 29.7% out of the market, as the COVID-19-stock market bear continued being obliterated by the stock market bull.

 

Two years ago, on Jun 21, 2019, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 210-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 268.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 241.6% (annualized at 46.9%). There were 109-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 20.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 76.9-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 84-buy signals and 48-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 66.0% in the market and avoids were 34.0% out of the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 244-stocks and funds on Jun 22, 2018. They were up 226.4% since their buy signals an average of 251.2-weeks earlier, annualizing at 46.9%. There were 63-avoided stocks and funds on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 74.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2018. There had been 36-buy signals and 63-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year. Hold signals were 76.3% in the market and avoid signals were 23.8% out of the market at this time of year in 2018.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 253-stocks and funds of the 301-tracked on Jun 16, 2017. They were up by an average of 184.9%, annualizing at 44.2% since their respective buy signals an average of 217.8-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 46-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an

average of 20.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 103.8-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2017. There had been a total of 25-buy signals 21-sell signals through this weekend in 2017. Hold signals were 84.4% in the market and avoid signals were 15.6% out of the market.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Signaling buy and sell has been minimal for several weeks due to stock market topping and the bottom dwellers not yet configuring with bullish attributes. Bottom dweller buy signals have been muffled as the stock market bull has lost momentum.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. The control freaks in political power now have 100% potential to do that.

 

Although increasing above Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics and China induced germ warfare with endless government bailouts that will be inflationary and heightened even more with money supply increasing far above earned money. A democratic controlled congress with a lunatic democratic president adds profound inflationary threats. Despite the eventuality of some factors, inflation remains tame for the time being, as it is being reported, but starting to accelerate as of weekending Apr 17, 2021. The annual inflation rate is being reported at 5.0% to date this year. Oil prices are up 90.4% from this time one year ago. Oil is up $38.18/BBL (+106.0%) since Biden’s so-called election. The populace and vote cheaters are paying for their errant thinking at the gas pump, declining infrastructure, and an evolving third world culture, where your political leadership expresses lunacy. Destroying U.S. petro has put the Saudi King back in the driver’s seat. Biden has no chance against the King, and he is under the influence of China, who directly controls many members of congress and professional sports teams. Inflationary pressures will be good for real estate possessions, as long as you can have property rights. The evolving communist manifesto will someday challenge those rights. As stated, many times in this report you have been witnessing sociopathic behavior from your elected politicians since Covid-19 started. Keep in mind, most politicians have always had sociopathic leanings.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate decreased by 100-basis points over a year ago on Mar 20, 2020, following a 50-basis point cut on weekending Mar 6, 2020.  That followed less aggressive decreases on Aug 2, 2019, Sep 19, 2019, and Nov 2, 2019. These less aggressive decreases were miniscule to the increases on Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018, Sep 30, 2018, and Dec 21, 2018. High unemployment, germ warfare from China, overstepping communistic politicians, and self-proclaimed elites continue confronting the stock market bull. So far, the markets are not believing these threats are sustainable for at least the next nine-months. The Federal Reserve Board has announced they will be reactive to economic conditions, as opposed to attempting to forecast them. That is okay because the Fed has never been good at forecasting.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill fell to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 19, 2019.  After falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear, it started a rebound attempt on weekending Jan 10, 2020, but fell deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 6, 2020 under the influence of China’s germ warfare, called Covid-19, and rapidly falling even more after that and below zero on weekending Mar 19, 2020, with a small bounce north of zero on weekending Apr 3, 2020. Since then, it remains near zero. However, it finally climbed out of that status on weekending Feb 12, 2021 while still in bottom feeding mode. That is about to change. If it does not, then inflation will occur. The charts show some small movement near the bottom.

 

The U.S. dollar continues to lose value among most major currencies. That correlates perfectly with the election of a weak U.S. president. The inflationary threat will worsen as the legislative branch is proving to be with an economic lunatic majority. So far, a desire for political power over adversaries appears predominant over economic wellbeing. Understanding that requires little economic IQ, which is apparently absent in the minds of the political elite and the lunatics that vote for them. They have zero economic IQ, which is equal to that of a sand pebble.

           

The Euro gained Red Bull status on weekending Jun 18, 2020 and still holding. It continues increasing its strength against the U.S. dollar. The 2024-mean forecast is at $1.18 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.70 to $0.71. Retaining Red Bull status reflects U.S. weakness at massive money printing machines that trace to a communistic takeover attempt of the U.S.

 

The Canadian dollar bounced above Yellow (weakening) the week of Sep 21, 2020 and fell below Yellow (strengthening) on weekending Nov 20, 2020. It accelerated below Yellow (strengthening), but weakened for the first time when Canadian empowered politicians had political opponents arrested. Keep in mind, sociopaths desire one thing; to control all. Since 2012, each drop to Yellow was followed by increasing weakness. Recent strengthening suggests the history of cyclical reversals will not occur as the prevailing U.S. politicians are even more liberal than the Canadians, who get away with their liberalism with an abundance of natural resources. Its 2024-mean forecast is $1.31CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $2.35CA to $2.45CA.

 

The Japanese Yen continues in a steady downward drift (strengthening) but weakened into Red Bull status on Apr 2, 2021. Consequently, prior minimal variations are now being challenged. This currency has been very stable since 2015 but with a strengthening bias. Its statistical mean forecast is at 108-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 168-170-Yen/U.S. dollar. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. presidential election.

 

The British Pound enjoyed Red Bull status on the week of August 3, 2020, for the first time in over a year. It was not comfortable there and fell below Red on Sep 10, 2020, but regained Red Bull status on Nov 20, 2020. It now configures with overcoming repeating cycles of weakening with strong Red Bull attributes. Its statistical mean forecast is at $1.38 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.74-$0.77 by Dec 2024. Since its mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it drifted bearishly, which has been its direction since its peak in 2008. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. election and continues to do so and dynamically so. The U.S. is moving toward the land of yellow teeth and perhaps even worse.

 

The Bitcoin regained Red Bull status on weekending Sep 18, 2020. It was bouncy around the bullish red curve after that but with general bullishness, suggesting continuing declines in the greenback value. It skyrocketed during the week of Nov 30, 2020 and again during the weeks of Dec 13, 2020 and Dec 20, 2020 and again in early Feb 2021. Previously, it climbed out Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 3, 2020 with massive greenback printing in overzealous responses to the Coronavirus attack from China. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. election in Nov 2020 and continuing that trend while enduring wild volatility the past few weeks. After climbing to over $60,000 on Mar 11, 2021, it at $38,720 last this past week which was up a bit the past three weeks.

                       

Gold endured Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 2, 2021 and rejected that on weekending Apr 23, 2021. Since that yellow bear rejection, it has been rising with a bit more inflationary substance than being offered by the Bitcoin. It achieved an all-time high in early August 2020. It has been dropping steadily since then but arguing against becoming a Yellow Bear. The Dec 2024-mean forecast is $1,800/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a Dec 2024 value approximating $823-$924/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after moving above the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020. It had been bouncy around $40/bbl for several weeks, but became highly bullish since Biden’s so-called election. The Dec 2024-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast remains below zero with the statistical mean forecast of $50/bbl. Saudi Royalty is very pleased with their new low IQ puppets in D.C. Oil is up 106.0% since Biden’s so-called election.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020 after abandoning Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020. It is trying to contribute to inflation with it regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. election and has continued doing so with no sign of any countermeasures from the source of the inflationary problem; the democratic party, news media, and the lunatic masses in their deep state of tabula rasa.

 

Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021 after falling into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  They are no longer Yellow Bears and showing some signs of passing a bottom. This remains a great time to finance real estate for those willing to incur debt during uncertainties from the Coronavirus and the more damaging sociopathic politicians.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak. The coronavirus had been disrupting that line of thinking but nearing its disruptive end. A new problem is the political climate, which always has the potential to be massively disruptive to economic conditions. Politicians have a long history of being economically destructive and completely absent of being constructive.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all ten major indices. The ten bulls are up by an average of 36.6% since their bull signals an average of 44.5-weeks ago and annualizing at 42.7%. The Mid-term Indicant regained bullish unanimity along the Mid-term Indicant cycle on weekending Oct 9, 2020, and lost it again on weekending Dec 25, 2020, and regained that highly desired configuration on Feb 5, 2021, and then lost it again on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It is again configuring with bullish unanimity since weekending Mar 26, 2021.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $75.1-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $5.0-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $4.5-million. That beats buy and hold’s $2.5-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $3.44-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.40-million on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $43.3-million. That is better than buy and hold $1.0-million since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,504.5%, 182.3%, 245.5%, and 4,135.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transport index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a week or two for the statistics to settle.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.8% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical lows in the 2008/9 recession and have persisted since then and thus giving rise to equity attractiveness to investors. Recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. The return of politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the economy and the corrupt election of the democratic (communist) party. Keep in mind, politburos confiscate. They are already confiscating your freedom. Conditions are mounting favoring strong profit potential in this economic climate, despite the newly forming political threat by the communistic movement now underway with the guise of climate change, racism, etc. Sociopathic political leadership is more common than not throughout recorded history.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 1,050.0%, annualized at 35.3%, since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,546-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Jun 18-There were several bear and sell signals along the short-term cycle; mainly the near-term cycle. The markets are reading interest rate increases with the decline in gold prices-(Chart) and the resurrection of TLT-(Chart).

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled one new bull and five new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 6 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 22.5-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 17.8%; Annualized Performance: 41.3%

Number of Near-term Bears: 0 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: N/A-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: N/A 

Near-term Performance Advantage: Nov 5, 2020-Stock Market Bull

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 2 of 11 

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 4 of 11

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Jun 18, 2021-Stock Market Bear

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled one new bull and one new bear.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 10 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 51.3-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 45.1%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 45.7%.

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 0 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: N/A-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: N/A

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 5 of 12

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Jun 30, 2020-Quick-term Advantage to Bull

                                   

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses          

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 3 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 1 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 7 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 4 of 11

 

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Advantage: May 14, 2021 Stock Market Bull

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Jun 18, 2021 NYSE volume remains contained within the domain of low interest. The NASDAQ continues nearing the domain of low interest. Neither index remains without with static interest. Although volume was low last week, both indicators are configuring for increased interest. That mildly favors the stock market bear due to overall stock market bearishness this past week.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

There was one buy signal and 16-sell signals along the near-term cycle.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 14-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 13.1% since their buy signals an average of 13.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 50.8%.

 

The NTI is avoiding one ETF. It is down by 9.4% since its sell signal 4.0-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 2

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 4

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 12

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bear as of Jun 18, 2021

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated one buy signals and four sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 43.0% since their buy signals an average of 47.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 47.6%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 60.6% since their sell signals 40.8-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 9

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull Jun 17, 2020

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past five weeks, “there is little likelihood of stock market bullishness, but not yet configuring for sustainable stock market bearishness.” Decreasing support for the stock market bear is now possible with declining force vectors and the loss of Blue Bulls. The stock market bull no longer has the energy to eclipse 52-week highs.

 

The ten major indices were down last week by an average of 2.8%, supporting the thematic of stock market lethargy so to speak.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

06/20/2021

 

 

 

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