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Weekly Stock Market Report

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 June 26, 2022, Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 06, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

A Band aided Bullish Bounce – Fake, As Always

Friday’s strong stock market bullishness is configured as a fake. Fundamentally, nothing has changed with one exception. The market is now within six-months of the mid-term elections. So, it is possible that the prevailing stock market configuration can shift to a substantive bullish cycle if investors believe the democrats lose congressional power similar to the 2010 stock market bull. Click this sentence to reminisce how Obama’s lunacy was shut down. Bull signal #02 occurred in July 2010, but the stock market bull fully understood that Obama’s agenda was being stifled in Sep 2010 at Bull Signal #04. Although Obama did some damage, the lunacy of Biden is much more severe. With that losing the congress to republicans in 2022 may not be enough because corporate earnings are now under a severe attack. For those corporations that manipulate their earnings, good luck, as the shortage of cash is not manipulatable.

 

Of course, political shenanigans are in play. For example, a dumb populace may believe Biden’s reduction of the federal tax gasoline tax. Biden and his incompetent cabinet are hoping there enough dumb voters who will say, “well, at least he is trying to lower the cost of gasoline.” The smart knows better, but the politicians know there are more dumb voters than smart ones.

 

Fed Chief, Gerome Powell, says this and that about how the Fed is not trying to stimulate a recessionary economy, while at the same time reduce inflation with the skyrocketing interest rates. Powell is a politician and doing his part to do what they do and that is to trick voters into believing their gibberish.

 

The stock market is sometimes fooled by political jawboning, but rest assured it addresses reality over the long run better than any other abstract. The stock market is focused on corporations making money. It does not care who is in political power or any other cause. It is only interested in corporation’s accumulated cash and reporting real profitability.

 

Some corporations do not care what interest rates are because a few and very few of them are debt free. However, most corporations require debt to exist. With rising interest rates, their profits and cash accumulations will decrease. With that, the stock market will also decrease.

 

Biden has a problem. He will need a war for any chance of holding congressional power, just as FDR needed World War II for his reelection. Even George W. Bush got into a war with Iraq is 2003 to enhance his chances of reelection. Politicians, who are inflicted with varying degrees of sociopathic behavior, care more about their power than the lives of those they serve. The problem Biden has is that a war with Russia is far more serious than a war with a small Middle Eastern Country. Unfortunately, the U.S. has a long history of reelecting an incompetent during war as opposed to repelling them.

 

The only attribute voters should consider is the competence of their leader, as opposed to what their leader tweets. Competence is the lone attribute of any leader, despite any human’s hundreds of other attributes. However, the dumb assess meaningless attributes and vote that way. Death and destruction follow when a leader is incompetent. Adolph Hitler was just a corporal in German military, but a powerful commentator. Young girls were impressed only to be raped by invading armies following Hitler’s rise and then fall from power. Incompetence is never rewarded.

 

The stock market bull is currently being fooled by all the political pontifications. Rest assured the stock market bear is exert its influence once it detects a problem with corporate profits and cash accumulations. Biden and his administration are 100% accountable for the prevailing inflation and rising energy costs. The stock market does not even care about that. However, the stock market bear will punish corporate stock prices when earnings start decreasing in the face of increasing costs and rising interest rates.

 

The only hope in the next two years is the election of a republican congress in November 2022 who will have the power to impeach Biden and the Vice President. Although a republican congress can stifle Biden’s agenda, the damage he accomplished in his first two years requires more than stifling. It requires the immediate removal of Biden, Harris, and Pelosi. Not doing that will result in a stock market bear similar to that of the 1970’s with much more depth.

 

With that, do not believe the bullish spurt now underway until you see the Mid-term Indicant signal bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 0-Red Bull, 10-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: The last remaining Red Bull, DJU-(Chart), expired on Jun 17, 2022. All ten major indices are below Red by an average of 11.5%.  The stock market must climb above Red to gain the desired protection against the stock market bear. That is unlikely to occur with the current administration in power unless a strong opposition shifts congressional power with immediate impeachment hearings that will also include the impeachment of the Vice President.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 0-Blue Bulls, 10-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The ten major indices are below Blue by 4.7%. That includes the DJU-(Chart), which enjoyed a solid bullish bounce this week and it indeed climbed above Blue. So, there is some mild hope for a stock market bull with the upcoming mid-term elections. However, as stated last week, there is no protection against the stock market bear here as well.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 14.4%. The absence of Yellow Bears strongly suggest economic depression is not possible now. With only a 14.4% drop remaining to Yellow Bear status, expect economic recession along the Mid-term Indicant horizon.  Also, keep in mind, severe stock market bears can drop 50.0% in a matter of weeks, while a stock market bull’s 50% increase is much slower. Keep in mind a 50% drop requires a 100% increase to displace the 50% drop.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 10-Green Bears, --Non-Green Bears

              Comment: The ten Green Bears are below green by 3.7%. That remains very bearish.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 10-Red Higher than Green; 0-Green Higher Than Red

              Comment: The mix here is irrelevant at this point with all red curves above green curves. The over-heating indicator expired and awaiting a new cycle of overheating. That will be quite some time from now. Most likely several years from now. Much depends on elections and removal of the nonsensicality of the newly found movement of the political elite as the masters of delineating disinformation from fact. On the contrary they are the masters of disinformation. It is amazing how evil introduces itself as some sort of master of this and that, while they are simply pontificators who has normal disdain from contrarian pontificators. Neither group is good. The only good from humanity’s contribution are from within the three meaningful groups of economic sectors. That is manufacturing, extraction, and agriculture. All else is just noise that is no different from the static you hear when your radio is near power lines.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 0-bullish domains, 10-bearish domains

              Comment:  This remains supportive of the stock market bear

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 2-above pressure, 8-below pressure

              Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear

           

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 0-bullish domains, 10-bearish domains

              Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 2-bullishly directed, 8-bearishly directed

              Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 2-bullishly directed, 8-bearishly directed

            Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Configurations remain supportive for the stock market bear.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. The website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and five-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 134 of the 315-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 374.8% that annualizes to 77.0%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 134-stocks and funds for an average of 253.0-weeks. There have been 16      -buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, hold signals are 42.5% in the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 176-stocks and funds of 315-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 15.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 67.6-weeks ago. There have been 135-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, avoid signals are 57.5% out of the market.

 

One year ago, on Jun 25, 2021, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 284-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 139.0-weeks. They were up by an average of 281.8%, annualizing at 105.4%. There were 31-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of 38.2% since their sell signals an average of 188.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals at this time of year in 2021.  There had been 46-buy signals and 14-sell signals throughout the year on this weekend in 2021. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 90.2% in the market and avoids were 9.8% out of the market.

 

Two years ago, on Jun 26, 2020, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 194-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 112.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 271.2%, annualizing at 80.9%. There were 93-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of 33.6% since their sell signals an average of 112.1-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and 29-sell signals at this time of year in 2020.  There had been 166-buy signals and 230-sell signals through this weekend in Covid’s 2020. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 61.4% in the market and avoids were 38.6% out of the market.

 

Three years ago, on Jun 28, 2019, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 212-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 268.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 238.7% (annualized at 46.2%). There were 77-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 31.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 103.3-weeks earlier. There were 32-buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 116-buy signals and 48-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 76.0% in the market and avoids were 24.0% out of the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 244 stocks and funds on Jun 22, 2018. They were up 226.4% since their buy signals an average of 251.2-weeks earlier, annualizing at 46.9%. There were 76-avoided stocks and funds on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 74.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2018. There had been 36-buy signals and 63-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year. Hold signals were 76.3% in the market and avoid signals were 23.8% out of the market at this time of year in 2018.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Selling and avoiding stocks have increased the past several months as politicians have again wreaked havoc on the equity markets. The stock market bear is dominant and as long as political fundamentals remain intact, the stock market bull will remain shy.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETFs enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. Control freaks in political power have 100% potential to create economic and social calamity with their desired result of a police state. That is why they encourage asset destruction. That would give them absolute power. That is never good for anyone but them.

 

 Reported CPI is no longer healthy. The PPI, as reported, is now unfavorably penetrating the stock market bull and the economy. The annual inflation rate is reported at 8.6%. Oil prices are up 43.8% from this time one year ago. Oil is up by $70.37/BBL (+195.4%) since Biden’s so-called election. Oil prices fell by over $10/BBL last week with typical mid-term election year shenanigans in an attempt to lure more votes from the populace. After the mid-term elections prices will skyrocket with yet more punishment to an unknowing public.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased 75-basis points on weekending Jun 17, 2022, following a 50-basis point increase on weekending May 7, 2022, following a 25-basis points on weekending Mar 18, 2022, which was the first-rate change since the 100-basis points decrease two years earlier on Mar 20, 2020.  Economic damage inflicted by the democratic party, germ warfare from their China pals, and other overstepping U.S. communistic politicians, and the self-proclaimed elites are now starting to manifest. The destination to a decreased quality of life has begun.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill shifted to Red Bull status on weekending Jan 28, 2022, after about two and a half years of enduring Yellow Bear status since Jul 19, 2019.  The T-Bill has risen a significant amount the past several weeks to the delight of the stock market bear. That behavior is now more visible on the chart as interest rates continue escaping the gravity of zero in a race to the clouds of stupidity.

           

The Euro dropped to Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 22, 2021, after losing Red Bull status on weekending Jul 31, 2021.  It continues residence in the domain of the Yellow Bear. The 2024-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.90 to $0.92.

 

The Canadian dollar remains in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) after climbing above Yellow (weakening) during the week of July 17, 2021. Its 2024-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.78CA to $1.82CA.

 

The Japanese Yen continues weakening since crossing above Red on Apr 2, 2021. Its narrow min-max points from 2017 through mid-2021 remains impressive with that tightness continuing through September 2021, when some additional weakening occurred. It continues to be escaping that tight trading range from 2017 through mid-2021. It weakened severely the week of Apr 4, 2022. Its statistical mean forecast is at 109-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 148-150-Yen/U.S. dollar.

 

The British Pound fell to Yellow Bear status as of Mar 11, 2022 and continues falling further below Yellow (weakening). Its statistical mean forecast is at $1.33 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.99-$1.02 by Dec 2024. The last bearish cycle was deeper than the prior one suggesting a trend reversal favoring its bearishness.

 

The Bitcoin fell to Yellow Bear status on week ending May 20, 2022 for the first time since early 2020. After that bearishness, it is now holding around $20,000 US dollars per Bitcoin.

                       

Gold endured Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 2, 2021 and rejected that on weekending Apr 23, 2021.  It is no longer a Red Bull, remaining between Red and Yellow. The Dec 2024-mean forecast is $1,850/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a Dec 2024 value approximating $1,290-$1,310/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after moving above the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020. It had been bouncy around $40/bbl. for several weeks but became highly bullish following Biden’s so-called election. The Dec 2024-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast remains below zero with the statistical mean forecast of $65/bbl. Saudi Royalty is very pleased with their new low IQ puppets in D.C. The Russians are also delighted with an interpretation they can retry conquering the world. There is some jawboning where the Royalty is being told to lower prices or the D.C. puppets will be tossed out. With that, normal political shenanigans are now underway to trick a naïve voting populace.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after abandoning Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020. That correlated well with a dumb populace and vote cheaters supporting the communistic takeover attempt of the U.S. It is now aggressively contributing to inflation with it regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. election and has continued doing so with no sign of any countermeasures from the source of the inflationary problem; the democratic party, news media, lunatic masses in their deep state of tabula rasa, and now a little Russian guy attempting to conquer other nations. It continues being bullish and thus inflationary.

 

Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021, after falling into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  As of weekending Dec 3, 2021, they were weak Red Bulls, but now increasingly militant to future home buyers. This no longer remains a great time to finance real estate. However, it is still arguably a good time, as interest rates will be triple prevailing levels before 2024.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are now computing with the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. That is not bullish and as you have seen, it has been outright bearish.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals, and no new bear signal this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.

 

The ten bears are down by an average of 6.2% since their bear signals 7.7-weeks ago.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $72.1 million. That beats buy and hold performance of $4.6 million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $4.43 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.68 million on a Jan 6, 1950, $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.86 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.16 million on a Jan 29, 1971, $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $42.804-million. That is better than buy and hold $1.035 million since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,566.2%, 264.4%, 246.1%, and 4,135.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transport index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.8% since then. Although this is classically presidential post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2021 as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those four presidential post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical lows in the 2008/9 recession and have persisted since then and thus giving rise to equity attractiveness to investors. Recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. The return of politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the economy and the corrupt election of the democratic (communist) party. Keep in mind, politburos confiscate. They are already confiscating your freedom. Conditions are mounting favoring strong profit potential in this economic climate, despite the newly forming political threat by the communistic movement now underway with the guise of climate change, racism, China virus-Covid rules, etc. Sociopathic political leadership is more common than not throughout recorded history. The presidential post-election year of 2021 successfully argued against historical trends of stock market bearishness. Low interest rates continue being credited with this and should be referred to as the Bernanke/Trump bull. Rest assured lying politicians take credit. And, as always, a populace believing the lies will eventually pay the price. Russia’s desire to dominate others is a new opportunity for this fund, as long as the dominated are not Americans. In that case, nothing has value, including gold.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 988.2%, annualized at 30.3% since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,599-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Jun 24-Friday’s strong stock market bullishness was fake. Volume was completely unsupportive. Pressure remains in bearish domains. Perceived fundamentals of stock market bullishness are just that; a perception.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 0 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: N/A-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: N/A%; Annualized Performance: N/A%

Number of Near-term Bears: 12 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 8.1-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -5.8%  

Near-term Performance Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock Market Bear

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 11 of 11 

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 11

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock Market Bear

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 0 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: N/A-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: N/A%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: N/A%.

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 12 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 7.9-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -5.5%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 11 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term Advantage to Bear

                                   

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses          

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 7 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 8 of 11

 

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term Advantage to Bear

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Jun 24-Friday’s strong stock market bullishness was not accompanied with increasing volume. On the contrary, volume was very low. That configuration is commonly referred to as a sucker rally. As stated last week, “both volume indicators elevated into the domain of high interest internal to the prevailing bear cycle. That continues to bode well for the stock market bear.”

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

There were no buy signals and no sell signals along the near-term cycle.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for one ETF. It is up 11.4% since its buy signal 9.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 65.7%. The lone hold is ETF#32-QID-(Chart).

 

The Near-term Indicant is avoiding 31-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 8.1% since their sell signals an average of 10.3-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 15

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 3

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bear as of Apr 22, 2022

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for two ETF’s. They are up by an average of 47.7% since their buy signals an average of 45.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 54.5%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 30-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 7.7% since their sell signals 10.4-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 0

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 25

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bear May 13, 2022

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

As stated six weeks ago, “the nine Mid-term Indicant bear signals remain supportive of the stock market bear. Fundamentals and technical configurations are increasingly supportive of the stock market bear.” As of June 17, 2022, there are ten Mid-term Indicant bears. That is with bearish unanimity along the Mid-term cycle. Do not expect any substantive bull until you see bull signals.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page on the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

06/26/2022

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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