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Weekly Stock Market Report

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Dec 17, 2017 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 12, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

  

The Tax Bill Versus Politburo Wannabes

Politburo wannabes do not want to give up any of your money. On the contrary, they want more of it. They want their hands on it all the time and more of it. The modern day democratic party’s argument against the tax bill underway is being promoted by New York’s Senator Chuck Schumer. He says, “Under this bill the working class, middleclass, and upper middleclass get skewered while the rich and wealthy corporations make out like bandits.”

 

Democrats took over the majority of both houses of congress in the 2006-elections. Median U.S. household income was rising when they took office in 2007. Median income continued to rise in 2007. However, it started to decline in late 2007 with liberal leaning George W. Bush not telling voters how stupid they were in electing politburo wannabes.

 

Democrats won “complete” power in the 2008-elections with a democratic congress and president. Since that complete power by the politburo wannabes, median income continued to fall. During that time, the president’s wife took very expensive vacations, using your money. Chuck Schumer, Barack Obama, and other members of the politburo wannabes lived the good life, while the median U.S. household income fell by nearly 20% from 2007’s peak to 2011. Now, those politburo wannabes are arguing against a potential solution to a problem they created. Not only did those politburo wannabes create the problem, they are completely insensitive to the plight of those they punish, while orating they know better what is best for you. That is what they do, in addition to eating the caviar while most live pay-check to pay-check.

 

Although the impending tax bill is not that impressive because it is not on a post-card, as originally touted, it is estimated to provide you and other non-politburo U.S. citizens around $1.7-trillion than you would otherwise not have.

 

Chuck Schumer and his other politburo wannabes are touting phony messages to the masses about the tax bill. Of course, many among the masses know Chuck Schumer is just another lying politician. However, immigrants from other countries think most things about the United States are great, including the incumbent lying politicians. With that, the politburo wannabes want more and more uneducated immigrants to come into the country. It is easier to manipulate the dumb than the smart. With that, there are more votes for the politburo wannabes.  

 

The U.S. House of Representatives and Senate will vote on the tax bill that returns $1.7-trillion to the rest of us. Those voting against that are politburo wannabes. They want to have access to that $1.7-trillion, as opposed to you having it. They want to take it from you to parcel it out to the ever increasing weakening masses and keeping enough for their enjoyment of the good life.

 

Despite the evil lurking near the top of the political elite, the stock market bull continues laughing at them. As you read the next section, you will find the stock market bull is strongly configured.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

 

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Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 10-Red Bulls, 0-Non-Red Bulls

            Comment: Red Bull unanimity continues along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. That disables strong bearish inclinations, as Red Bulls are the strongest defense against the stock market bear. The major indices are above Red by an average of 13.6%. With that, the overall stock market would have to fall by 13.6% before any possibility of bear signal qualification.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 10-Blue Bulls, 0-Non-Blue Bull

            Comment: The Dow Transports-(Chart) regained Mid-term Indicant Blue Bull status, week ending Dec 1, 2017. Mid-term Indicant Blue Bull unanimity now exists. Overall, the ten major indices are above the bullish short-cycle blue curve by an average of 4.4%. 

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: None of the major indices are threatening on becoming a Yellow Bear. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop 35.4% from current position.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

                Comment: All ten major indices are above Green by an average of 11.3%. Bear signals are not signaled with prevailing configurations until prices fall below Green and no longer Red Bulls. With that, the stock market would have to fall 13.6% at this point to endure bear signals since that is the stock market’s relative position to the bullish red curve.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): Two Reds Higher than Green; Eight Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: Although this attribute suggests an overheated bull market, it remains a minor concern at this point since all major indices are not configured as overbought. The DJT-(Chart) Red is above Green by 1.6%. The S&P600-(Chart) Red is above Green by 1.2%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

                Comment: The stock market bull feels secure when all force vectors are in bullish domains.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 7-above pressure, 3-below pressure

                Comment: This remained constant from last week, supporting stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

                Comment: Bullish vector pressure unanimity is a strong ally to the stock market bull. 

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 9-bullish, 1-bearish

                Comment: Force vector direction continues favoring the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 7-bullish, 3-bearish

            Comment: A majority are again moving bullishly, favoring the stock market bull.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: There is nothing different from last week. As stated for several weeks, the prevailing Red Bull population minimizes the potential of deep bearish magnitude. Most Mid-term Indicant attributes are configured with bullish support with only a few mild, and recently decreasing threats, to the prevailing bullish bias.

 

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.

 

Teva Pharma, NAS#20-TEVA-(Chart), was up 15.9% last week, as the NASDAQ100’s big winner. Despite that, it remains down 59.6% since the Indicant’s Sep 2016 sell signal. As always, continue avoiding Yellow Bears. Sears Holding, NAS#83-SHLD-(Chart), was down 10.7% as last week’s biggest loser among NASDAQ100 stocks. It is also down 92.0% since the Indicant’s Dec 2013 sell signal. Again, never own a Yellow Bear.

 

Cardinal, ISTK#14-CAH-(Chart), was up 7.3% as the best performing stock among the Indicant Select stocks. However, it is down 6.5% since the Indicant’s Sep 2017 sell signal. This stock is a Yellow Bear. Continue avoidance until you see a buy signal. Broadvision, ISTK#17-BVSN-(Chart), was down 19.5% last week as the big loser in this group of stocks. It is also down 84.1% since the Indicant’s May 2012 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

 

Disney, DJIA#25-DIS-(Chart), was up 6.8% last week as the Dow30’s best performing stock. It is also up 222.8% since the Indicant’s Oct 2011 buy signal. Continue holding this Red Bull. IMB, DJIA#22-IBM-(Chart), was down 1.5% as the Dow30’s worse performing stock last week. It is up 1.4% since the Indicant’s May 12, 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

 

Williams Co, DJU#11-WBM-(Chart), was up 4.1% last week as the Dow Utility’s biggest winner. It is also up 9.1% since the Indicant’s Nov 17, 2017 sell signal. This stock did nothing for over a year during the Indicant’s previous hold period. Although no longer a Yellow Bear, it will not earn a buy signal until its vector pressure crosses into bullish domains. First Energy, DJU#15-FE-(Chart), was down 3.0% as the worse Dow Utility stock last week. It is also down 6.1% since the Indicant’s Nov 10, 2017 buy signal. This stock appears to be nearing another sell signal.

 

Vanguard Gold, MF#19-VGPMX-(Chart), was up 2.8% as the best performing fund last week. Although weak, this fund still has potential to be strongly bullish with an anticipated weakening dollar. This fund is holding its ground.            Fidelity Construction and Housing, MF#34-FSOHX-(Chart), was down 10.3% as last week’s big loser among funds. Although troubled this past week, continue holding this solid Red Bull. Construction should continue to boom, provided enough workers can be found. If not, robotic technology may accelerate its advances.

 

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Ten Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past ten years. If a particular year interests you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence will display them on the website.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 267 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 197.7% that annualizes to 43.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 267-stocks and funds for an average of 235.9-weeks. There have been 81-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 53-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 20.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 116.3-weeks ago. There have been 64-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on Dec 16, 2016 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 252-stocks and funds of the 302-tracked for an average of 192.3-weeks. They were up by an average of 153.4% (annualized at 41.5%). There were 47-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 17.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 67.5-weeks earlier, one year ago. There was one buy signal and two sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There had been 148-buy signals and 112-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2016. The markets were nervous during most of 2016 with the polls favoring the election of a dynamic economic leech, Hillary Clinton. She not only thieved for personal gain, she was capable of taking all corporate profits.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 248-stocks on Dec 18, 2015. They were up 158.7% since their buy signals an average of 224.1-weeks earlier. There were 89-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 75.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and five sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There had been 65-buy signals and 120-sell signals through this weekend in 2015. This presidential pre-election year was somewhat uneventful and tame, following unusually strong post-election year bullishness in 2013 and a flat 2014-mid-term presidential election year.    

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 301-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Dec 19, 2014. They were up by an average of 139.9%, annualizing at 39.6%, since their respective buy signals an average of 183.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 37-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 16.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 63.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2014. There had been 36-buy signals and 53-sell signals through this weekend in 2014. This presidential mid-term election year was encumbered by normal cyclicality, while correlating more stock market bullishness with projected congressional losses by democrats. The cyclicality was due to increasing personal biasness by pollsters, as opposed to polling accuracy. Some pollsters bias their statistics in an attempt to maneuver voters to their preferred candidate. After all, they, like others who live entirely in an abstract world of opinion, believe they know better, while, in fact, their brain waves emanate fiction.

 

There were 316-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Dec 13, 2013 since their buy signals an average of 142.6-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 99.4% (annualized at 36.3%). There were 21-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 28.7% from their respective sell signals an average of 74.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2013. There had been 106-buy signals and 58-sell signals through this weekend in 2013. This was an impressively bullish year, as sequestration inspired the stock market bull along an accelerated growth plane. Although sequestered spending was minimal, the underlying principles of handcuffing the irrationality of politicians inspired the stock market bull.

 

On Dec 14, 2012, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 280-stocks and funds out of 338-tracked. They were up by an average of 73.8% (annualized at 33.3%) since their buy signals an average of 115.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 53-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 34.3% since their sell signals an average of 75.8-weeks earlier. There were tree buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2012. There had been 189-buy signals and 138-sell signals through this weekend in 2012.

 

On Dec 16, 2011, there were 231-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 323-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 55.4%, annualizing at 35.9% since their respective buy signals an average of 80.2-weeks earlier. There were 82-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 19.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 47.5-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and ten sell signals on this weekend in 2011. There had been 143-buy signals and 205-sell signals through this weekend in 2011.

           

On Dec 10, 2010, there were 291-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 339-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 42.5%, annualizing at 47.9%, since their respective buy signals an average of 46.2-weeks earlier. There were 46-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 51.7% since their sell signals an average of 122.0-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2010, totaling 179-buy signals and 113-sell signals through this weekend in 2010. The stock market shifted to strong bullishness in August 2010 at the obviation of democrats losing the House of Representatives. This is an example of the stock market’s ability to “anticipate,” as opposed to being reactionary to the “news.”

 

There were 201-stocks and funds with hold signals on Dec 18, 2009. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 317-stocks and funds at that time. Those with hold signals were up by an average of 27.1%, annualizing at 49.8%, since their buy signals an average of 28.3-weeks earlier. The 109-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 40.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 90.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. There had been 218-buy signals and 40-sell signals through this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear neared its conclusion in late February 2009 with most of the selling beginning in late 2007 with renewed buying along the short-term cycle in March-April 2009 and more heavily by Jul 2009 along the more stable mid-term cycle. This year was an extraordinarily bullish year, as the presidential post-election year is typically bearish. However, presidential popularity declined significantly in 2009, offering the stock market bull inspiration. Presidential popularity peaked three months after the inauguration. The stock market bottomed, for the most part, in late March 2009, where the stock market bull resumed directional dominance. Presidential popularity did return to post inauguration heights through 2013. It seldom does until their final year in office when the populace takes pity on the lame duck incumbent’s ineptness, as political orators are empty of substance. Despite their incessant claims to the contrary, there is nothing politicians can do for you. They, however, rob some to the benefit of others (primarily their pals and vote buying). Unfortunately, there are a finite number of cycles to this before degeneration manifests the system’s collapse.

 

On Dec 19, 2008, there were 31-stocks and funds with hold signals, enjoying an average gain of 60.4% since their respective buy signals an average of 42.9-weeks earlier. That annualized at 73.2%. There were 344-stocks and funds tracked at that time. There were 311-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 35.1% since their sell signals an average of 30.7-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2008. There had been 236-year-to-date buy signals and 445-YTD sell signals through this weekend in 2008. This was the year of the great stock market crash, as phony political leadership do what they do. And then their little, but selfish, three-pound brains, blame the crash on big business and capitalism, despite them being 100% responsible for the fiasco. The stock market bear was accelerating its dominance in early 2008 with a few false bounces from phony governmental interventions and the profound stupidity from their “too big to fail” paradigm. Delaying the inevitable only worsens its magnitude at the conclusion.

 

On Dec 14, 2007, there were 227-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 345-tracked by the Indicant at that time. They were up by an average of 154.3% since their buy signals an average of 133.1-weeks earlier, annualizing at 60.3%. There were 109-avoided stocks and funds since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 16.3-weeks earlier. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 9.1% at that time. There was one buy signal and eight sell signals on this weekend in 2007. There had been 137-year-to-date buy signals and 232-YTD sell signals through this weekend in 2007. Democrats and their socialistic agenda were the new majority of the incoming Congress that year. The stock market bull performed okay during the first half of 2007. The socialistic agenda started to take its toll on the capital markets in the summer of 2007. After six months of democratic control of the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House with liberal leaning George W. Bush, the stock market peaked in 2007.

           

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying and selling have been limited for the past several months, as the bull’s perseverance has prevented a bear market for quite some time. That reduces the number of stocks in temporary decline to earn new buy signals. Although Mid-term attributes are not strongly bullish, the stock market bear has been unable to gain traction with only minor pestering the past eight years. It is very possible for that to continue for eight to ten more years.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

   

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 238.3% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 522.6% and the S&P500 is up 244.5% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 446.3% since October 9, 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was bearish by 18.9% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.

 

The NASDAQ was down 33.0% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was up 44.1% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 7.9% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

 

It was up 4.0% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.

           

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 11.4% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.8%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.

 

The NASDAQ was up 9.1% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.

 

The NASDAQ was down by 43.1% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.

                       

It was up 39.6% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6 % from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

 

The NASDAQ was up 15.3% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate. It was down 4.3% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.

           

The NASDAQ was up 14.3% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  

 

It was up 33.4% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  

           

The NASDAQ was up 10.3% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it, but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.

 

The NASDAQ was up 4.6% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.

 

The NASDAQ was up 8.6% in on this weekend in 2016. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.

 

The Dow is up 24.7% this year. The S&P500 is up 19.5% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 28.9% this year. The S&P600 is up 11.3% this year.  The Dow Transports is up 14.9% this year. The stock market bull has been stable for the most part this year. Its bullishness is extraordinary for a presidential post-election year, similar to that in 2009-Obama dramatic fall in popularity and 2013-sequestration.

 

The Dow is up 74.0% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 142.6% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is          up 71.0% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.

 

All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so, but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 36.3%.

 

The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 37.4%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is again above that peak by 37.4%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 42.5%.

 

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

 

The Dow is up 276.5% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 446.8% and the S&P500 is up 295.5% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 413.0% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive.          

 

The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior now. That is a temporary condition.

 

The reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains mildly threatening. Always keep in mind, publicly generated information can be biased for political purposes, as opposed to simply publishing accurate information. The manifestation of “making America great again” can be inflationary. However, a simplified tax code could be offsetting to that threat.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased 25-basis points on week-ending Dec 15, 2017, following similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, and Jun 15, 2017. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections.  Rates remain at very low levels and thus not yet impeding economic growth.

 

The Federal Reserve’s Quarter 2, 2017 promise of being passive on rate hikes is now being challenged with noticeable increases in interest rates. The 3-Month T-Bill remains very low and non-threatening to the stock market bull despite it aggressively increasing. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. If the Fed remains slow in rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be unfriendly to the stock market bull.

 

The Euro remains with Red Bull status, arguing with its ten-year bearish trend. Although remaining with Red Bull status, it weakened the past several weeks, despite European central bank’s recent rate increases. It, like most other currencies, strengthened with Yellen’s Quarter 2, 2017 strategy. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.26. The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned to the neutral zone in late October 2017 with renewed weakening. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.31CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values exceeding $3.00CA to $2.50US.

           

The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 186-167-Yen/U.S. dollar. It remains in a tight trading zone, expressing an inability to change its strengthening. The British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull Status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency. It is struggling a bit in holding its Red Bull status, but clearly resisting another drop. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.31 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.76 by Dec 31, 2020.

 

The Bitcoin was added to this section due its increasing purchasing power on weekending Dec 7, 2017. The appeal is that there is no central authority in its modeling. In other words, no king, queen, or politician can dictate is value. It toppled $15,000 to one dollar on most exchanges last week in skyrocketing fashion. The charts show forecasted values, but without much historical support and thus not mentioned here.

                       

Gold lost Red Bull status on weekending Oct 21, 2017. Fed passiveness in their rate hikes and the corresponding weakening dollar is encouraging bullish potential for gold.  However, recent behavior has been contrarian to the previous sentence. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,297/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $650/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil achieved Red Bull status on Dec 22, 2016, while returning to Yellow Bear status on Jul 7, 2017 and escaping that the very next week on Jul 14, 2017.  It returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 2017. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $49/bbl.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures regained Red Bull status on Nov 23, 2017 after succumbing to the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 10, 2017. Despite that, it remains relatively flat. This is the longest period of stability in the past 20-years. That flatness minimizes inflationary threats. The 2020 mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020.

 

Mortgage rates abandoned Yellow Bear status on Nov 3, 20 16 with a sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not for those desiring home ownerships. On Nov 25, 2016, it lost that Red Bull status. Since then, they have been wavering with relative stability, but with some recent aggression back to Yellow Bear, which is bullish for home buyers. However, as you can see, it is resisting becoming a Yellow Bear. Interestingly, rates bounced north off the Bearish Yellow in early Nov 2017. All forecasts are still bearishly directed and until the change, the trend remains bearish, which is good for home buying. The new problem fomenting is finding enough non-lazy people to construct new homes. Also, talented home builders cannot be blamed for being shy on aggressive building as they are more understanding of how politicians can be destructive to their well-being.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.         

 

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. It is down 3.9% since then.

 

Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also enjoyed a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. It is down 7.0% since then. The above Vanguard fund usually outperforms this one.

 

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Oct 13, 2017 and up 1.5% since then, annualizing at 8.4%.

 

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, endured a sell signal on May 5, 2017. It is down 14.1% since then.

 

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, endured a sell signal on Oct 10, 2014. It is down 42.6% since then. This fund did not participate with the small energy bull in 2016.

 

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, endured a sell signal on May 26, 2016. It is up 1.7% since then. Its force vector continues dropping. It will enjoy a buy signal when force reverses direction if still above Yellow.

 

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 14, 2017. It is up 4.6% since then, annualizing at 18.1%.           

           

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Dec 4, 2017. It is down 1.7% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Dec 7, 2017. It is up 0.6% since then.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all ten major indices and enjoying bullish unanimity. The existing bulls are up by an average of 38.1% since their bull signals an average of 86.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 22.9%. There are no Mid-term Indicant bears.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $67.653-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.695-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.346-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.575-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $1.958-million. That beats buy and hold’s $693,658 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $36.077-million. That is better than buy and hold $744,112 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,730.8%, 112.4%, 182.3%, and 4,748.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 98.5% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 751.6% (annualized at 28.7%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,363-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Dec 15- Contrarian VIX-(Chart) continues pestering the stock market bull, but took a bit hit from the stock market bull with Friday’s euphoric bullishness. Some traders are expecting a bearish profit-taking generator once the tax bill passes. That, in part, is causation to VIX bullishly directed force vectors. It endured a new bear signal, as its vector pressure is inside bearish domains. Non-contrarian Dow Utilities-(Chart) remains unimpressed with the tax bill and continues enduring a near-term bear signal. That minor bear signal is the only configuration standing in the way of short-term bullish unanimity.

 

Thu-Dec 14-Contrarian VIX-(Chart) is pestering the stock market bull. It earned a bull signal along the near-term and quick-term cycle. Its force is starting to move bullishly. Normally, that would be ignored at this time of year. Despite that, most near-term attributes remain with strong bullish configurations. Non-contrarian ETF#20-EEM-(Chart) is offering arguments against bearish potential with a near-term buy signal.

 

Wed-Dec 13- There was no report on stock market lethargy and no signals.

 

Tue-Dec 12-Non-contrarian DJU0-(Chart) continues preventing near-term bullish unanimity, while quick-term bullish unanimity remains strongly intact. Despite the absence of desired bullish perfection, the stock market remains bullishly biased. The Alabama election for a two-year senatorial seat, which threatens the passage of tax reform. That election could inspire the stock market bear. So far, short-term configurations remain supportive of the stock market bull.

 

Mon-Dec 11-There was no report on stock market lethargy and no signals.

 

Please review the below sections for more insight.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and one new bear.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 10 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 20.9-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 11.6%; Annualized Performance: 28.8%

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 1.4-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: 0.4%

Configured Advantage: Near-term Stock Market Bull, effective May 26, 2017.

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 9 of 12

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 12

Position Advantage: Near-term Stock Market Bull, effective Nov 17, 2017.

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and one new bear.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12                                             

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 85.0-wks.               

Quick-term Bull Performance: 37.1%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 22.7%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12 (the lone bear is contrarian VIX)

Average Duration of Quick-term: Bears: N/A-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: N/A%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 10 of 12           

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0 of 12

Configured Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull, effective Nov 7, 2016

           

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-co            ntrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 8 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 5 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 5 of 11                        

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 5 of 11

Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull, effective Aug 31, 2017.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-Dec 15-Increased volume on strong stock market bullishness due to the likely passage of the tax bill supports more of the same. The bull rejoices at you keeping more of your money than transferring from you to bureaucrats to their associated skimmers to the dumb and lazy.

 

Thu-Dec 14-Same as the past three days.

 

Wed-Dec 13-Same as the past two days.

 

Tue-Dec 12-Same as yesterday.

 

Mon-Dec 11-Average volume on mixed stock market behavior supports status quo. That is bullish.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 10.1% since their buy signals an average of 19.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 27.2%.

 

The NTI is avoiding five ETFs. They are down by an average of 11.8% since their sell signals 5.1-weeks ago.           

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 2

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 15

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 2        

 

Advantage: Near-term stock market bull, as of Nov 17, 2017.

 

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary    

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 30.9% since their buy signals an average of 68.1-weeks ago. That annualizes at 23.6%.                                                                                                                                                                

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETFs. They are down by an average of 49.1% since their sell signals an average of 56.6-weeks ago.                                                          

         

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses         

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

 

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

 

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 23

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0    

 

Advantage: Quick-term stock market bull, effective Nov 7, 2016

 

Reverse Tangential Projections

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

As stated this past week, “bullishly directed vector pressures are (remain) in the majority and increasing its support of the stock market bull. The majority of force vectors (remain) above pressure, offering additional support to the stock market bull. All major indices are Blue Bulls and Red Bulls. The stock market bear has extraordinary difficulty in mounting attacks with bullish strength as noted in this paragraph. Any bearish behavior with those attributes should be viewed as minor pestering from the stock market bear.”

 

As stated the past five weeks, “all other fundamentals are irrelevant at this point, as interest rates remain too low to offer other cash based investment opportunities. Trumpism, generally, remains supportive of capitalism and that is bullish.” It should be noted the Federal Reserve increased rates this past week, but still at a non-threatening level.

           

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

12/17/2017

 

 

 

 

 

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