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Weekly Stock Market Report

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July 14, 2019 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 07, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report


“We Know What is Best and You Do Not”

This presidential pre-election year is shaping up to a return to normalcy. The ten major indices are up by an average of 17.7% so far this year. Along the political fundamental plane, sharp disdain between the legislative and executive branch of government remains favorable to the stock market bull. This time, the nature of that discourse is a bit different, where the executive branch will not enact legislative stupidity, as opposed to the other way around, which is the most common.


Fundamentally, the more the democrats’ campaign and orate their unbelievable stupidity, the more the uninformed will become more informed of the seriousness of elections. As long as 51% of the populace recognize that the word, give, is nonsensical from those orators who personally have nothing to give, the stock market bull will be happy. However, if 51% or more believe they can be provided for by those empty souls offering provisions, the stock market bull will abandon you and all around you.


Along the short-term horizon, it appears the Federal Reserve is about to lower interest rates. That hardly ever happens in bull markets. When it does, the stock market bull stampedes even faster to new stratospheres. The primary reason the Federal Reserve can reduce interest rates is due to the supply of petro. Despite AOC lunacy, hard-working and brilliantly minded engineers in the petroleum sector have figured out how to extract more oil from earth’s provisions. Capitalism has always been the best provider. Understanding that is not even complicated. Politically minded people are blinded by that simple knowledge because that entire premise of capitalism is that no one person is in charge. Only the best performing person on any give day has the edge, but the minute that person relaxes, he or she is immediately replaced/displaced by yet another person who slept less, ate less, and worked harder. The politically minded person only wants power regardless of how little or how well they perform. That is one reason why they dislike capitalism.


Another reason the politically minded dislike capitalism is how billionaire capitalists dwarf the wealth of the politically minded. Most of the politically minded are millionaires; mostly from corrupt practices, while most capitalistic billionaires worked hard and are much smarter than the politically minded. Actually, those who are deeply engaged in capitalistic endeavors have little time to pay any attention to political orators, which is also upsetting to the politically minded.


Now, most of the populace do not understand how or why energy prices are down. However, when the likes of AOC and Bernie Sanders say no more cars, planes, and cows, while out of their pathetic empty souls, all things are free, the populace may wake up to the fact that if there is nothing to have, then the word, free, has no meaning. In effect, expressed lunacy by the likes of AOC, Bernie Sanders, and the other hallowed souls running for the democratic ticket may indeed educate the populace in a round about way. That will lift the stock market bull, as more and more will bias their behavior with capitalistic endeavors and eventually mute the sounds of the likes of Stalin, Hitler, AOC, Sanders, and the democratic party. All those empty souls orate the same sort of message and that is, “we know what is best and you do not.”


So, if the masses do not like the idea of renewed socialism, communism, etc., that will shift more voting bias away socialistic endeavor.


With all of that, all ten vector pressures are now contained within bullish domains. Force vectors are bullishly mature, suggesting an impending rest period for the stock market bull. As long as force remains above pressure there will be no threat to the stock market bull. Force vectors are getting a bit tired and a healthy decline would actually strengthen the stock market bull.


Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

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Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.


Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 8-Red Bulls, 2-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: The eight Red Bulls are above Red by an average of 7.3%. The stock market bear cannot completely dominate with that level of Red Bull dominance.


Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls- Click for Explanation2): 8-Blue Bulls, -Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The eight major indices are above the blue bull by 3.2% and as long as Blue Bulls are in the majority, the stock market bear can only pester.


Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: Fortunately, none of the major indices are Yellow Bears. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 27.5% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance and the economy is not being threatened.


Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

                Comment: The absence of Green Bears reduces stock market bear potential. All ten major indices are above Green by an average of 11.2% percent, which is healthy for the stock market bull. The Mid-term Indicant signals bear when the major indices fall below green when not in Red Bull status and with a few other exceptions.


Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 10-Reds Higher than Green; 0-Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) have not enjoyed Green crossing above Red in the current bull cycle. If that remains absent, the stock market bear has a formidable enemy. Overall, Red is above Green by an average of 5.7%.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

                Comment: Bullishly positioned force vectors continue with unanimous support of the stock market bull.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 9-above pressure, 1-below pressure

                Comment: The DJU’s-(Chart) force vector dropped below pressure this past week in a non-threatening manner as it continues with contrarian behavior.


Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

                Comment: Bullish unanimity with this highly desired attribute fully supports the stock market bull.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 9-bullishly directed, 1-bearishly directed

                Comment: The loss of one bullishly directed force vector this past week is of minor concern at this point. The lone defector is the DJU-(Chart).


Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 10-bullishly directed, 0-bearishly directed

            Comment: This unanimous support of the stock market bull is the primary attribute to monitor at this point since they remain very close to bearish domains.


Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

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Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Bearishly positioned vector pressure remains as the primary threat to the stock market bull.


Thematic-Technical-Current Influence

The last discerning threat to the stock market bull expired this past week. As you can see, the NYSE crossed above the plane of bullish resistance. So, the link in this sentence will be tracked until that point of resistance is violated with the NYSE moving above that decaying line.


Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. Of course, the website has stock market history dating back to 1900.


The Mid-term Indicant generated no-buy signals and no-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  


The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 256 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 216.1% that annualizes to 47.2%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 256-stocks and funds for an average of 237.9-weeks. There have been 128-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.


The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 65-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 36.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 115.0-weeks ago. There have been 48-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.


One year ago, on Jul 13, 2018 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 247-stocks and funds of the 320-tracked for an average of 230.3-weeks. They were up by an average of 219.7% (annualized at 49.6%). There were 67-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 17.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 78.4-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were no buy signals and six sell signals on this weekend in 2018. There had been 48-buy signals and 71-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2018.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 268-stocks on Jul 14, 2017. They were up 170.6% since their buy signals an average of 215.7-weeks earlier, annualizing at 41.1%. There were 47-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 93.5-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2017. There had been 47-buy signals and 30-sell signals through this weekend in 2017.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 268-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Jul 15, 2016. They were up by an average of 142.1%, annualizing at 38.8%, since their respective buy signals an average of 190.7-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 70-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 24.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 77.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There had been 99-year-to-date buy signals and 77-sell signals through this weekend in 2016.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 278-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Jul 10 2015. They were up by an average of 154.6%, annualizing at 37.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 213.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 44-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 17.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 70.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There had been a total of 23-buy signals and 44-sell signals through this weekend in 2015.


There were 316-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 335-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Jul 11, 2014 since their buy signals an average of 164.6-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 124.0% (annualized at 38.2%). There were 19-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 25.9% from their respective sell signals an average of 77.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2014. There had been 20-buy signals and 19-sell signals through this weekend in 2014.


The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     


The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.


Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

If the stock market bear has indeed hibernated, the relatively large numbers of avoided stocks and funds will provide more opportunities for buying since 2009, where nearly all stocks and funds were avoided early that year. Although there are not as many avoided stocks and funds being avoided as in early 2009, there are still plenty of opportunities. Force vectors started increasing two weeks ago, offering potential for new buy signals. There were 32-buy signals on weekending Jun 28, 2019 and 12-more on weekending Jul 6, 2019. There have been 128-buy signals this calendar year against 48-sell signals. These opportunities continue manifestation. There were no new buy signals this past week due to tiring force vectors, but there will be more into the future.


Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.


The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.


The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 275.1% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 640.0% and the S&P500 is up 288.0% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 457.9% since October 9, 2002.


The NASDAQ was down by 16.0% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.


The NASDAQ was down 29.6% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.


The NASDAQ was up 29.8% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 3.6% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.


It was down 4.9% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.


In 2006, the NASDAQ was down 6.9% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.  


The NASDAQ was up 12.1% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. This week was extraordinarily bearish in that year, as the stock market bear had already been dominating since July of that year. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.


The NASDAQ was down by 15.6% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.


It was up 13.7% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.


The NASDAQ was down 1.2% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.


It was up 5.4%            on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.


The NASDAQ was up 11.6% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  


It was up 19.2% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-t erm elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  


The NASDAQ was up 5.7% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.


The NASDAQ was up 7.1% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939. Trade war were maximal in 1939.


The NASDAQ was flat on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the “obvious” president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.


The NASDAQ was up 16.6% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up by 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness and especially so with rising interest rates.


The NASDAQ was up 13.4% on this weekend in the 2018-presidential mid-term election year. The Blue Wave was reported as coming most of that year. With that “communistic” threat, the stock market bull was absent most of the year with a bearish conclusion. The NASDAQ closed down by 3.9%, while the S&P500 was down 6.2% and the Dow down 5.6% for 2018.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17.2% this year. The S&P500 is up 20.2% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 24.2% this year. The S&P600 is up 12.7% this year.  The Dow Transports is up 16.0% and Dow Utilities is up 15.6% this year. The S&P400 is up 17.9% this year.


The Dow is up 93.0% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 188.3% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is up 92.6% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.


All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 49.1%.


The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 63.3%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is above that peak by 68.8%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 60.0%. Those paltry gains have not kept up with inflation. With that consideration they are still down since their 2000-peaks.


Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.


The Dow is up 317.5% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 549.8% and the S&P500 is up 345.6% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 424.0% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases.


The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish, but democrats are about to take over the U.S. House of Representatives and the last time that happened in 2007 the stock market peaked ahead of its 2008-bearish behavior.


Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.


Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition. Recent promotions of communism, if successful, will result in zero for all capital stocks.


Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics will be inflationary. Despite that eventuality, inflation remains tame for the time being. The annual inflation rate is being reported at only 1.6% to date this year. Oil prices are down 14.4% from this time a year ago, which has a very high correlation to inflation. There is more about oil later.


The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased another 25-basis point on week-ending Dec 21, 2018. That followed similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018 and Sep 30, 2018. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election, although pretty much to the original 2008-2009 Bernanke plans. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections. The Fed remains sensitive to political pressure, favoring the stock market bull. Inflation is subsiding and interest rates are starting to drop.


The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull, despite jumping from 2.08% to 2.17% on weekending Jul 5, 2018. They again decreased to 2.09% last week. Decreasing unemployment is perceived as inflationary and thus the reason for increasing market-based interest rates.


Oil prices have been stable to declining and thus facilitating, somewhat, Federal Reserve’s passivity. Middle Eastern tensions remain threatening to that stability.


The Euro fell into Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jun 15, 2018 and continues sticking to bearish Yellow with a bearish drift. Gluing to Yellow for such a long period suggests stability, which should be viewed as favorable for the Euro, despite its continuing erosion in value. The prevailing bearish trend started after the enjoyment of shifting bullishly for the first time in nine years in early March 2018 like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of its long-term bearish trend. Again, that is occurring with both Red and Yellow in a bearish slope. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.79 to $0.81.


The Canadian dollar dipped to just above Yellow (strengthening) on weekending Jul 5, 2019 and holding there with recent strengthening due to anticipated interest rate reductions. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.70CA to $1.78CA.


The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast remains at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 140-150-Yen/U.S. dollar. Its flatness the past three years is unusual. That helps internationally stabilization which is always welcome by the stock market bull.


British Pound’s 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.29 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $1.00-$1.02 by Dec 31, 2020. Since its mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it has drifted, bearishly.


As stated for several weeks, international currencies, relative to the U.S. dollar are relatively stable, despite the tariff threats being bantered around.


The Bitcoin returned to Red Bull status on weekend May 17, 2019 for the first time since early 2018. It did not express discomfort in doing so by maintaining its prevailing Red Bull position.


Gold climbed sharply above Red on weekending Jun 21, 2019 from Iranian conflicts. It has been increasing bullishness the past few weeks. The anticipate interest rate reductions are believed to be inflationary and with that gold prices are representing that scenario The 2020-mean forecast is $1,300/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $887-$904/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.


Oil remains in the zone of neutrality (between Red and Yellow). Surprisingly, oil remains stable despite Iranian threats to the Strait of Hormuz. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $55/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Supply capacity, exceeding demand, is the prevailing price depressant.


The CRB Bridge Futures escaped Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 13, 2019 after falling into Yellow Bear status on Nov 23, 2018. The 2020-mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020. Its current configuration offers no support for inflation. It has been uncharacteristically flat for several years, but was bullishly aggressive this past week similar to gold.


Mortgage rates fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  They remain as Yellow Bears, but were very aggressive this past week, despite anticipated interest rate reductions in a few weeks


The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.


Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There was no new bull signals and no new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.


The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all ten major indices. They are up an average of 7.8% since their respective bull signals an average of 17.6-weeks ago, annualizing at 23.1%. The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bear for one of the ten major indices.


The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $72.126-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $4.097-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.702-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.774-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.642-million. That beats buy and hold’s $824,415 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $36.347-million. That is better than buy and hold $761,603 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,660.4%, 108.6%, 217.2%, and 4,672.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.


There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.


The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a week or two for the statistics to settle.


Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.


The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.1% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of course, if that happens, you would not enjoy the opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you.


Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds


Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.


Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.


The Dow is up 844.2% (annualized at 30.4%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,444-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.


Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.


The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri Jul 12-The stock market bull rested last week with falling force vectors. Stable volume is comforting to the resting bull as the stock market bear cannot gain traction with current configurations. Early week bearishness was followed by late week bullishness with a mild 0.8% overall gain last week. Steady bulls are of high quality, favoring longevity over periodic spurts. As you will see in the weekly stock market report, force vectors are bullishly mature, suggesting a continuation of resting by the stock market bull.


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.


Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.


Number of Near-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 4.8-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 3.2%; Annualized Performance: 34.6%


Number of Near-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 5.4-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -27.0%

Near-term Performance Advantage: Jun 21, 2919-Stock Market Bull


Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 11 of 12 

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 1 of 12 


Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Jun 21, 2019-Stock Market Bull


Index Quick-term Report Card Summary  

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.


Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 16.8-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 9.0%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 27.9%


Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 4.0-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -18.8%


Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 10 of 12           

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1 of 12


Quick-term Configured Advantage: Jun 28, 2019-Stock Market Bull


Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 1 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 4 of 11                                    

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 5 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull-effective Jun 7, 2019


Indicant Volume Indicators

Table volume throughout the week with early bearishness followed by increasing bullishness as the week progressed favors the stock market bull.


Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.


The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 4.3% since their buy signals an average of 7.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 31.4%.


The NTI is avoiding two ETFs. They are down by an average of 16.1% since their sell signals an average of 5.0-weeks ago.


Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 3


Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 2

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0


Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 21

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0


Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bull Jun 7, 2019


ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.


The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 7.7% since their buy signals an average of 14.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 28.5%.


The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETFs. They are down by an average of 16.1% since their sell signals an average of 5.0-weeks ago.


Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2


Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0


Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 20

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0


Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull Jun 7, 2019


Reverse Tangential Projections                

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.


Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.


Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts


Indicant Conclusion

As stated last week, “the stock market bull is gaining momentum, despite fundamental problems, such as trade tensions, Middle Eastern-Strait of Hormuz, and the democratic party that is in full compliance with communism. The stock market bull is anticipating a shrinking democratic party. Their salvation is illiteracy and that is in abundance. Despite that abundance, the stock market bull does not believe it is over fifty percent.” The stock market bull could spend a few weeks resting, but that will not deter the stock market bull’s dominance.


Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.


Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.


Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.


Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.



To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink: 


Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.


Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.


The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.


For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.


Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.


For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.


If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.


Happy Investing,




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