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Short-term Indicant (Near-term and Quick-term Cycle)

S&P 400-Midcaps and S&P600-Small Caps

Last Update: 05/20/2019 08:49 PM -0400

S&P400-Mid Cap

S&P600-Mid Cap

Prevailing Comment S&P600 - April 29, 2008 - As stated the past several days, the configuration mentioned on Thursday, April 10, 2008 remains the most discerning at this point. This index remains well above the bullish red curve. You will notice a light blue line drawn across the yellow curve. At some future point, the red curve will intersect with that tangential line. When that happens the current bullish cycle will expire. Yellow’s inflection is the first indicator of the bull tiring. That does not mean the bull is about nap, but the rate of increase should slow down. There is plenty of room before red contact with tangential. Therefore, fear of bear should be minimal at this point.

It is obvious this S&P600 will not fall below April 10 or April 11 values in a few days. However, the probability remains high that that will happen at some future point. That probability will adjust depending on when red interacts with tangential. If it does not occur this year, a deep 2009 bear would not be out of line.

As pointed out the past few days, the yellow curve inflecting back to the north without the index falling below yellow will offer bullish sustainability for several more weeks. There are early indications this is occurring.

As stated since last Tuesday, April 29, 2008, although there is currently a 97% probability the S&P600 will be lower at some future point than it was on April 11, 2008, the normal Quick-term Indicant has developed too many bullish attributes to continue avoidance tactics. Prices last Tuesday, April 29, 2008, were back to approximately where most were sold after the 20-months of holding from August 2006 through January 2008. Consequently, there were several ETF buy signals on Tuesday, April 29. Solid bullish behavior occurred the next day, April 30. The Quick-term Indicant will not be slow in generating sell signals until the heart and soul of bullish seasonality starts in late August through early October of this year. There should be at least one, if not two bearish cycles before then.

 

 

 

 

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