April Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Updates

April 30, 2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 23 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

Today's Report

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Six of thirty; five are non-contrarian, offering bullish support.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Four of thirty. This remains borderline non-bearish.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is bullish 3.0%. Although the bear will eventually respond with some gusto, it will not do that much damage with red bulls and positive Vector Pressure.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential is bullish by 3.0%.

Force Vectors: Force Vectors remain with bullish support and have not turned aggressively to the south. They are high and will eventually turn south, but they are expressing too much timidity in support of the bear at this time.

Vector Pressure: Twenty-seven in bullish domains. They are holding steady and should not be argued with. If they continue holding steady for a few more days, then this bullish cycle, may in fact, not be a short-cycle bullish spurt. Major inflection points are now forming which will enhance obviation of the stock market’s directional intensity.

Immediate Tactics: Buy passively on signals until the breadth and magnitude of the current bullish cycle obviates.

Current Quick-term Bias: Many attributes are mixed with a slight bullish advantage, which is a reversal from the past two weeks. Bullish sustainability of the current Quick-cycle underway remains elusive, but continues to move north.

Overall Market Status: Many attributes are mixed, but red bulls and positive Vector Pressure are dominant. The Quick-term Indicant was uncharacteristically slow in this recognition. Therefore, sell signals will be generated if these two attributes wither.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.

Volume: The NASDAQ lost robustness earlier this week, which was configuring an increased probability of a bullish bias shift. However, that brief period of robustness remains pertinent. Keep in mind that lethargy is commonplace during daylight savings time.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

Click this sentence to view the VIX chart. This index continues configuring in favor of a bullish stock market even though recent minor movements did not. The bearish yellow curve continues movement favorable to the bull.

Click this sentence to view the S&P600 chart. As stated the past several days, the configuration mentioned on Thursday, April 10, 2008 remains the most discerning at this point. This index again moved above its bullish red curve last Friday and continues holding ground. It has expressed timidity the past few times that has happened. The probability of the market being less than April 10 or April 11 position within a few days or even weeks remains high. Notice its bearish yellow curve is inflecting. Short bullish cycles (spurts) have only one inflection point. A tangential line will be drawn tomorrow. You will later see how Indicant Research has used this to identify cyclical peaks. That will provide additional indicators that will describe the peak to the current bullish cycle underway.

If the yellow curve inflects back to the north without the index falling below yellow, the current bull cycle will be sustainable for several more weeks.

Although there is currently a 97% probability the S&P600 will be lower at some future point than it was on April 11, 2008, the normal Quick-term Indicant has developed too many bullish attributes to continue avoidance tactics. Prices are back to approximately where most were sold after the 20-months of holding from August 2006 through January 2008. Consequently, there were several ETF buy signals on Tuesday, April 29. The Quick-term Indicant will not be slow in generating sell signals until the heart and soul of bullish seasonality starts in late August through early October of this year.

QQQQ-Vector Pressure-Some of you recall the concerns about negative Vector Pressure on April 6, 2008. Click this sentence to review that concern. As you can see by clicking this sentence, QQQQ Vector Pressure appears comfortable residing in bullish domains. Click this sentence to review the current configurations. As you can see, the bullish ambition did not meet bearish resistance. The risk/reward ratio on continued avoidance has shriveled. Several Quick-term Indicant attributes continue to shift into bullish support; very subtly. The current price is fairly close to that when it was sold at earlier this year from the August 2006 buy signal. It is a red bull, which can stimulate sell signals, but we have learned time and again to not argue with red bulls. The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell pretty quickly in the event Vector Pressure sours or Red Bull positions are lost. The most dangerous time in holding a security is shortly after buying it.

To view STI for the ten major indices, click here. Keep in mind, some of the charts are being used for research, but the actual market data is pure. You can see that most of the indices remain above their bullish red curves, which is a bullish configuration.

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on Friday April 11, 2008. The Dow is up 4.0% and NASDAQ is up 5.4%, respectively since then. This signal is obviously in error with respect to market performance since then. This is being influenced, in part, by a four week period of historical bearish seasonality. Although the market goes up during this period more often than it goes down, the few periods of decline have been dynamic; enough so, that this period generates a loss since 1900. The risk/reward ratio remains too high to ignore this potential. However, Short-term configurations currently maintain a very low probability of dynamic bearishness.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

The NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator has cooled off since late last week when it was configuring with robustness. The robust cycle, although brief, was concurrent to bullish behavior. As stated the past few days, this is a powerful bullish configuration. However, other attributes, although mixed, have shifted with a slight bullish bias.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were three buy signals and no sell signals. In addition to the buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 61.9% (annualized at 44.4%) since their respective buy signals an average of 71.8-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding three-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 7.6% since their sell signals an average of 17.9-weeks ago.

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only nine years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were two-buy signals and no sell signals. In addition to the buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up an average of 73.4% (annualized 47.5%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 79.6-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there are three ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 8.2% since their sell signals an average of 17.9-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were four-buy signals and no sell signals. In addition to the buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 13.0% (annualized at 38.0%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 13.9-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 2-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 8.8% since their sell signals an average of 13.9-weeks ago.

You will notice buying and selling among the models are in tandem. This is common during inflection periods and conflicts in the directional intensity of trend and cycle. In this case, the cycle is up while the trend is south.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are three conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. The combined Short/Quick Indicant models identify 77-hold signals and only 5-avoid signals, providing a bullish bias. The bullish bias shift on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008, but a potential bullish bias shift was born on March 11, 2008, which has now expired. After some jittery behavior, a new bullish bias shift was born a few days ago, but the measurement of performance will commence on April 29, 2008.

The following paragraph has a 97% probability of being accurate. Configurations suggest the market and most of the ETF’s will be lower than they were in early April at some future point. Timing will be more predictable when bearish yellow curve inflects. Some are now configuring with inflection points. This price depression should occur in 2009.

Although the above is may manifest with 100% accuracy by direct observation, the major indices and most of the ETF’s did not bounce south off bullish red. The Quick-term Indicant is designed to participate in bullish spurts with some degree of sustainability. As long as Vector Pressure is positive with bullish red configurations, the Quick-term Indicant cannot avoid participation in a potential sustainable bullish spurt, regardless of duration.

If bullish red configurations evaporate and Vector Pressure shifts to bearish domains, the Quick-term Indicant will signal sell.

The Quick-term Indicant’s March 11 and March 18 buy signals were unusual. Most of the ETF’s at that time were deep yellow bears with negative Vector Pressure. There were procedural and algorithmic violations with those buy signals. The March 18 buy signal was more classical, but the errors made on March 11 induced sell signals on April 11. Once violations occur, it takes a few cycles to return to normalcy. Last Tuesday’s buy signals will not reverse unless red bull and Vector Pressure discontinue supporting the bull cycle now underway. That will not happen very quickly since the number of non-contrarian red bulls continues to increase. Some have healthy margins with respect to magnitude above red. They can become too hot and cool down, but as long as they are red bulls, the Quick-term Indicant will continue to hold.

The yellow bear buys were tricky. Holding red bulls is a no brainer. Holding positive Vector Pressure is also a no-brainer. Vector Pressure has been obstinate the past several weeks, which is a bullish attribute. Force Vectors have dipped south three times since March 11 and had zero impact on positive Vector Pressure. That is also bullish. All of this could be obsoleted by the bear within a few days, and if so, the sell signals will be quick.

This is a bear market, but bullish spurts can rise as much as 15 to 30% before capsizing back into bearish mode. The market is more diverse with about three billion people contributing to the cause of capitalism as opposed to just a few million in the last century. Behavioral patterns will be different to extent there will be more of a bullish influence as long as the capitalistic movement flourishes. Even with that, the current market is a bear, but with the potential for a nice bullish spurt of some duration. That was observed several weeks ago, but the Quick-term Indicant lacked the proper number of supporting attributes to maintain that conviction.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Four of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. That is non-bearish. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 4.4%. This is the twenty-second consecutive trading day with non-bearish support, which is increasingly suggesting non-bearish sustainability.

Six of the ETF’s are above their bullish red curves. All thirty ETF average positions are 1.4% below their bullish red curves. Overall, this remains mildly non-bullish. Five of the six red bulls are non-contrarian, which supports bullish bias, but barely hanging onto that bias. Keep in mind, as long as just one non-contrarian ETF is bullish red, dynamic bearish expressions are muted. Keep in mind that most ETF bullish red curves are decreasing and that was one of the reasons for buying hesitancy. That non-bullish attribute persists, but positive Vector Pressure is too alluring to ignore.

The QTI differential is bullish by 3.0%. This is the tenth consecutive trading day of bullish support.

Click the heading link in this section to view the charts. As earlier stated, there was no violent bullish response to Vector Pressure crossing into bullish domains from yellow bear status.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

One of the thirty ETF’s is contacting its breakout line, which is bullish. This is the first trading day with breakout contact after four consecutive trading days with non-bullish support.

The average distance from breakout contact is 12.6%. Double digit variances from breakout contact for 80-consecutive trading-days is not supportive of the bull.

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines, which is non-bearish.

The average distance between the price and breakdown is 15.6%. This configuration is providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

The breakout/breakdown differential is bullish by 3.0%, which is supportive of the bull.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

Twenty-three Force Vectors are in bullish domains. That is up by fourteen from April 16, but down by four from last Monday. Overall bullish support is configured. The question regarding sustainability persists even with Tuesday’s high number of buy signals.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no option buy signals after Wednesday’s close. This provides the unpleasant attribute of neutrality.

Twenty-seven of the thirty ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains, which for the nineteenth consecutive day since several months ago is no longer configuring in support of the bear.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The bullish bias shift that began on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008. However, a new bullish bias was born on March 11, 2008. It is not a thoroughbred, though. It is tainted with Enron-like misguidance from Bear Stearns. The March 11 bullish bias shift expired on April 11, 2008. It was expected to be just another short bullish spurt. That still may be the case, but the Quick-term Indicant is incapable of ignoring red bulls.

Continue avoid writing covered options due to obstinate bullishly Vector Pressure and an increasing number of red bulls.

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Mid-term Indicant continues signaling hold for ProFunds Ultra Short in anticipation of bearish stock market behavior, even though it moved unfavorably to that hold position last week. However, the magnitude of that bearishness may not be that significant and thus minimal profits should be expected. Small losses are possible due to recent bullishness.

If there is no reversal to last Tuesday’s buy signals for several ETF's, the Mid-term Indicant will most likely signal sell this weekend for this particular fund. It is advisable to immediately sell this fund. The Mid-term Indicant will re-evaluate this weekend, but there is a high likelihood it will be sold.

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It is excluded from overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This exclusion is required for convergent/divergent monitoring.

The Indicant signaled sell for QID on April 29, 2008. Although its Force Vector is attempting to rise, its Vector Pressure has fallen deeply into bearish domains and with yellow bear configurations. It could change tomorrow, but it is better to take our losses this time around and not ever argue again for desired bullishness with negative Vector Pressure.

Other Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources - is up 44.0% (annualized at 28.7%) since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 25, 2006. Vector Pressure is well inside bullish domains, but Force Vectors are declining. This fund remains a red bull and is configured consistently with one that is just too hot and merely cooling down.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 99.1% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2005. It is annualizing at 35.6%. Its Force Vector continues wandering with a pitiful configuration. This fund could fall to bearish yellow, which could be an excellent buy point for those who are getting in late. Rest assured if the CPI continues to rise, this fund will be holding and leading the way. Although it is bordering with negative Vector Pressure its rising bearish yellow curve is preventing sell signal.

LETF#14-Long Government - This fund is down 1.7% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on April 7, 2008. This fund has little volatility. It is mildly contrarian to the stock market. If the market turns bearish this fund should perform okay. If the market turns bullish, this fund will continue underperforming. The Quick-term Indicant will be slow to signal sell since the market’s trend is bearish, even in the face of a bullish spurt. Keep in mind this fund has little movement in price, while it also is stable and safe in bear markets.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Happy Investing,

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

04/30/08

04/29/08 Supplement to Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

The following is a brief overview of the current situation, using QQQQ as an example. Click this sentence to review the current configurations. As you can see there are three charts. You may have to scroll down to get the salient points on all three charts in view.

The top chart is the current QQQQ. You will notice its Vector Pressure is positive just as it was in August 2006. You will also notice the similarities between now and August 2006. The August 2006 chart is on the lower left. The August 2006 price moved above bearish yellow and with rising Vector Pressure. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy, which it usually does during bull markets. A nice profit was yielded between the August 2006 buy and the early January 2008 sell signal.

There were two uncharacteristic buy signals in March and April of this year. That was explained in the daily stock market report.

However, you will notice a slight difference between August 2006 and today’s buy signal. The Force Vector behavior ahead of the August 2006 buy signal was aggressive and had a robust configuration. That is not the case with the current buy signal. Although recent Force Vector movements were to the north, it did not express great magnitude like it did in August 2006. This is not saying the buy signal is not a good one. This is to inform you of the possibility this buy signal may not last that long.

Notice the chart on the lower right. As you can see, the Force Vector behavior ahead of positive Vector Pressure was fairly aggressive. It did not get that much magnitude though. There was some fluttering. That is when the market vacillates in directional intensity. After the fluttering subsided and directional intensity was obviated, the Quick-term Indicant signaled sell. QQQQ fell by nearly 50% on that particular bear leg in 2002.

Keep in mind this ETF was priced at over $100/share in early 2000. It fell to around $20/share by late 2002.

So, keep your eye on these attributes for all of the ETF’s. The Daily Stock Market Report will advise of sell or hold. Each ETF behaves differently, although most of the non-contrarians move in the same direction at the same time. The contrarian ETF’s march to their own drum beat.

Happy Investing,

James Vick, editor@indicant.net

www.indicant.net

April 29, 2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 22 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

Today's Report

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Six of thirty; five are non-contrarian, offering bullish support.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Four of thirty. This remains borderline non-bearish.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is bullish 2.7%. Although the bear will eventually respond with some gusto, it will not do that much damage with red bulls and positive Vector Pressure.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential is bullish by 2.6%.

Vector Pressure: Twenty-seven in bullish domains. They are holding surprisingly steady. If they continue holding steady for a few more days, then this bullish cycle, may in fact, not be a short-cycle bullish spurt. Major inflection points are about to form which will enhance obviation of the stock market’s directional intensity.

Immediate Tactics: Buy passively on signals until the breadth and magnitude of the current bullish cycle obviates.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.

Volume: The NASDAQ lost robustness today, which was configuring an increased probability of a bullish bias shift. Keep in mind that lethargy is commonplace during daylight savings time.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

Click this sentence to view the VIX chart. There is nothing new here, other than a slight movement to the north, which is bearish for the stock market. However, there are limited technical attributes offering obviation at this time.

Click this sentence to view the S&P600 chart. As stated the past several days, the configuration mentioned on Thursday, April 10, 2008 remains the most discerning at this point. This index again moved above its bullish red curve last Friday and continues holding ground. It has expressed timidity the past few times that has happened. The probability of the market being less than April 10 or April 11 position within a few days or even weeks remains high. Notice its bearish yellow curve is inflecting. Short bullish cycles (spurts) have only one inflection point. A tangential line can be drawn in a day or two. That will provide additional indicators that will describe the peak to the current bullish cycle underway.

If the yellow curve inflects back to the north without the index falling below yellow, the current bull cycle will be sustainable for several more weeks.

Although there is currently a 97% probability the S&P600 will be lower at some future point than it was on April 11, 2008, the normal Quick-term Indicant has developed too many bullish attributes to continue avoidance tactics. Prices are back to approximately where most were sold at after the 20-months of holding from August 2006 through January 2008. So, you will notice many buy signals. The Quick-term Indicant will not be slow in generating sell signals until the heart and soul of bullish seasonality starts in late August through early October of this year.

QQQQ-Vector Pressure-Some of you recall the concerns about negative Vector Pressure on April 6, 2008. Click this sentence to review that concern. As you can see by clicking this sentence, QQQQ Vector Pressure appears comfortable residing in bullish domains. Click this sentence to review the current configurations. As you can see, the bullish ambition did not meet bearish resistance. The risk/reward ratio on continued avoidance has shriveled. Several Quick-term Indicant attributes continue to shift into bullish support; very subtly. The current price is fairly close to that when it was sold at earlier this year from the August 2006 buy signal. It is a red bull, which can stimulate sell signals, but we have learned time again to not argue with red bulls. The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell pretty quickly in the event Vector Pressure sours or Red Bull positions are lost.

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on Friday April 11, 2008. The Dow is up 4.1% and NASDAQ is up 5.9%, respectively since then. This signal is obviously in error with respect to market performance since then. This is being influenced, in part, by a four week period of historical bearish seasonality. Although the market goes up during this period more often than it goes down, the few periods of decline have been dynamic; enough so, that this period generates a loss since 1900. The risk/reward ratio remains too high for generating too many buy signals at this time.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were 11-buy signals and one sell signal. In addition to the buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 14-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 87.2% (annualized at 35.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 127.9-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signal, the SQI is avoiding five-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 2.8% since their sell signals an average of 14.9-weeks ago.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were 11-buy signals and one sell signal. In addition to the buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 15-ETF’s. They are up an average of 121.4% (annualized 45.4%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 137.7-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signal, there are four ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 4.2% since their sell signals an average of 14.6-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were 15-buy signals and one sell signal. In addition to the buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 10-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 30.9% (annualized at 36.5%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 43.5-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signal, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 5-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 0.2% since their sell signals an average of 7.6-weeks ago.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are six conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. The combined Short/Quick Indicant models identify 40-hold signals and only 13-avoid signals, providing a bullish edge. The bullish bias shift on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008, but a potential bullish bias shift was born on March 11, 2008, which has now expired. After some jittery behavior, a new bullish bias shift was born a few days ago, but the measurement of performance will commence on April 29, 2008.

The following paragraph has a 97% probability of being accurate. Configurations suggest the market and most of the ETF’s will be lower than they were in early April at some future point. Timing will be more predictable when bearish yellow curve inflects. Some are now configuring with minor adjustments suggesting inflection points are developing.

Although the above is may in fact manifest with 100% accuracy by direct observation, the major indices and most of the ETF’s did not bounce south off bullish red. The Quick-term Indicant is designed to participate in bullish spurts with some degree of sustainability. As long as Vector Pressure is positive with bullish red configurations, the Quick-term Indicant cannot avoid participation in a potential bullish spurt, regardless of duration.

If bullish red configurations evaporate and Vector Pressure shifts to bearish domains, the Quick-term Indicant will signal sell.

The Quick-term Indicant’s March 11 and March 18 buy signals were unusual. Most of the ETF’s at that time were deep yellow bears with negative Vector Pressure. There were procedural and algorithmic violations with those buy signals. The March 18 buy signal was more classical, but the errors made on March 11 induced sell signals on April 11. Once violations occur, it takes a few cycles to return to normalcy. Today’s buy signals will not reverse unless red bull and Vector Pressure discontinue supporting the bull cycle now underway. That will not happen very quickly since the number of non-contrarian red bulls continues to increase. Some have healthy margins with respect to magnitude above red. They can become too hot and cool down, but as long as they are red bulls, the Quick-term Indicant will continue to hold.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Four of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. That is non-bearish. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 4.2%. This is the twenty-first consecutive trading day with non-bearish support, which is increasingly suggesting non-bearish sustainability.

Six of the ETF’s are above their bullish red curves. All thirty ETF average positions are 1.5% below their bullish red curves. Overall, this remains mildly non-bullish. Five of the six red bulls are non-contrarian, which supports bullish bias, but barely hanging onto that bias. Keep in mind, as long as just one non-contrarian ETF is bullish red, dynamic bearish expressions are muted. Keep in mind that most ETF bullish red curves are decreasing and was one of the reasons for buying hesitancy. That non-bullish attribute persists, but positive Vector Pressure is too alluring to ignore.

The QTI differential is bullish by 2.7%. This is the ninth consecutive trading day of bullish support.

Click the heading link in this section to view the charts. As earlier stated, there was no violent bullish response to Vector Pressure crossing into bullish domains from yellow bear status.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines, which is non-bullish. This is the fourth consecutive trading day with non-bullish support.

The average distance from breakout contact is 12.7%. Double digit variances from breakout contact for 79-consecutive trading-days is not supportive of the bull.

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines, which is non-bearish.

The average distance between the price and breakdown is 15.3%. This configuration is providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

The breakout/breakdown differential is bullish by 2.6%, which is supportive of the bull.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

Twenty-four Force Vectors are in bullish domains. That is up by sixteen from April 15, but down by three from yesterday. Overall bullish support is configured. The question regarding sustainability persists even with today’s high number of buy signals.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no option buy signals after Tuesday’s close. This provides the unpleasant attribute of neutrality.

Twenty-seven of the thirty ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains, which for the nineteenth consecutive day since several months ago is no longer configuring in support of the bear.

Bearishly forming Force Vectors two weeks ago were in the process of changing in favor of the bear. However, the bear obviously chose to remain absent, defying high probabilities of its stock market participation. Such variances have a cumulative effect. Absences, such as those late last week, make up for the lost time when they eventually appear. In other words, the bear is late for its own party and when it arrives, it will be in a bad mood. Force Vector positions are no longer weakening in support of an immediate bear attack. That still could happen, but the increasing number of red bulls are providing enough defense potential to simply neutralize the bear.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

Continue avoid writing covered options due to potential volatility. Opportunities will expand as soon as Vector Pressure drips back to the south.

If there is no reversal to today’s sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant will most likely signal sell this weekend for this particular fund. If the market responds bullishly to the Federal Reserve Board’s policy announcement this week, go ahead and sell this fund ahead of the Mid-term Indicant update.

The Indicant signaled sell for QID today, April 29, 2008. Although its Force Vector is attempting to rise, its Vector Pressure has fallen deeply into bearish domains and with yellow bear configurations. It could change tomorrow, but it is better to take our losses this time around and not ever argue again for desired bullishness with negative Vector Pressure.

Other Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources - is up 43.2% (annualized at 28.2%) since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 25, 2006. Vector Pressure is well inside bullish domains, but Force Vectors are declining. This fund remains a red bull and is configured consistently with one that is just too hot and merely cooling down.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 96.5% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2005. It is annualizing at 34.7%. Its Force Vector continues wandering with a pitiful configuration. This fund could fall to bearish yellow, which could be an excellent buy point for those who are getting in late. Rest assured if the CPI continues to rise, this fund will be holding and leading the way. Although it is bordering with negative Vector Pressure its rising bearish yellow curve is preventing sell signal.

LETF#14-Long Government - This fund is down 2.4% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on April 7, 2008. This fund has little volatility. It is mildly contrarian to the stock market. If the market turns bearish this fund should perform okay. If the market turns bullish, this fund will continue underperforming. The Quick-term Indicant will be slow to signal sell since the market is bearish, even in the face of a bullish spurt. Keep in mind this fund has little movement in price, while it also is stable and safe in bear markets.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Happy Investing,

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

04/29/08

April 28, 2008 - Midnight EST

Special Announcement

Even if the Dow were to move bullishly by 500 points tomorrow, rest assured the overall stock market is becoming increasingly bearish. Three of the eight major indices tracked by the Indicant have these types of bear signals of a mid to long-term nature. In other words, regardless of any bullish aggression in the next few days/weeks/months, there is a high likelihood the market will be lower at some future point than where it is right now.

While researching improvements to the Quick-term Indicant, we stumbled across an interesting phenomenon. It may be too slow for most of you, but its reliability of obviating directional intensity is 97% accurate with plus or minus nine weeks of error. Expanding that error to plus or minus 9-months increases accuracy to 99.7%. The current modeling is at the nine-week range, as few people would not want to miss out on a +50% bull even if it avoided an 80% bear following that bull cycle. That is what could happen with the nine-month range. So, we have tentatively opted to the nine-week range with the 97% confidence level where it is possible for a 20% bull leg to manifest with a bear/avoid signal. That would also be difficult to accept, but it is more difficult to not share this important research result even if a bit premature. We usually develop tours for such models.

Click this sentence to view the S&P600 Chart. Data for this index started in the 1990’s, which falls short of the Dow’s 1896 data range. However, we have tested the Dow since 1985 and will continue testing back to 1900. You will notice the S&P600 BO, Breakout Line, moved south. It actually moved south on April 21, 2008. The BD, Breakdown Line, moved south several weeks earlier. In our research, we noticed that the market is Bearish when any incumbent Tangential Line intersects with the downward moving Breakdown Line. The model will not signal bull until either the BD or BO Line moves north. Either of those two events will not occur for at least another five to six months, which coincides with the heart and soul of bullish seasonality later this year.

This is not saying the market will turn immediately bearish. The model is 97% confident the S&P600 will be lower at some future point than it was on April 21, 2008. That means this is a bear market is not over, even though the current bullish cycle has demonstrated some sustainability.

Not all of the major indices have these bearish attributes. Click this sentence to view the S&P100 Chart. Including other major indices may reduce the 97% confidence level limits based on further testing. However, it will not be less than 70%. This is long-term modeling and we will most likely incorporate it in our daily or weekly reports. It is monitored daily, though. We will continue improving the Quick-term Indicant so that we can enjoy those bullish swings even in a bear market. Also, investment instruments and several ETF’s of a contrarian nature offer opportunities during bear markets that did not exist only a few short years ago.

Happy Investing,

James E. Vick, Jr.

editor@indicant.net

www.indicant.net

April 28, 2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 21 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

Today's Report

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Nine of thirty; eight are non-contrarian, offering bullish support.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Three of thirty. This remains borderline non-bearish.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is bullish 4.4%. Although this is a normal bullish configuration, the last time this support shifted to the bull, the bear responded with some gusto. This continues to be the expectation.