Apr 30,
2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 04, Issue
21 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and
Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the
latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. Some
prices are interacting with NTI Green curve and thus threatening to hold
signals. The bear is being encouraged with this interaction.
However, most ETF’s and major indices are fluttering around NTI Bullish
Blue. Since most of the fluttering is centered around this bullish
element, bearish threats are not taken seriously in spite of the souring
economic fundamentals from abroad. Fluttering around the NTI Bearish Green
curve is where bear attacks should be taken seriously. There are only a
few ETF’s with this configuration. None of the major indices are enduring
proximity with the NTI Bearish Green Curve with the exception of the DJU
and VIX.
A
few NTI bullish blues collapsed the past few days. Since March 2009, this
led to bearish spurts followed by stronger bullish responses. As long as
Pressure remains in bullish domains, the bull will remain dominant.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up
6.6% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 45.3%. The
lone bear, DJU, is up 2.6% since the NTI Bear signal 13.0-weeks ago.
Interestingly, the DJU was bullish on today’s bearish aggression.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up by
an average of 29.2%, annualizing at 36.0%, since their bull signals an
average of 42.1-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and
when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves. The
exception to this is the mischievous VIX, which is fluttering around
bearish yellow. This index is contrarian to the overall stock market, but
retaining enough attributes to suggest bullish potential for the VIX and
bearish potential for the overall stock market.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for the Dow Jones Utilities. It is
up 6.1% since its bear signal 11.6-weeks ago.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle
than Near-term cycles)
QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish.
Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you
enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant
gains.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.
The Quick-term Indicant remains
supportive of the QTI Bull.
Near-term Attributes (This
is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Three
non-contrarians; lost eight Blue Bulls on Apr 27 bearish aggression,
regained on Apr 29, and lost seven on Friday’s bearish aggression. This
attribute is having difficulty retaining Blue Bull bias. As stated on
Thursday, Apr 29, the NTI Blue curve is getting lazy, which can arouse the
bear.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on
Mar 4, 2010.
The Near-term attributes remain in
favor of the bull, but faltering a bit.
Short-term Force Vectors
and Pressure Attributes
STI-Force Vector Domain Position;
Four non-contrarians in bullish domain, mildly supporting bull.
STI-Force Vector Position
Relative to Vector Pressure; Only one non-contrarian above Pressure. Prior
mild bearish threat subsided, but again threatening. Force Vectors are not
bullishly aggressive other than the VIX.
STI-Force Vector Direction; Only
one non-contrarian moving north; no bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Three
non-contrarians are moving bullishly; low neutral bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Position;
Eleven non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support, but still
near convergence, which has been occurring for several weeks. This
correlates to indecisiveness in directional intensity.
Short-term Market Summary
Short-term attributes continue
configuring in support of the bull in spite of the bear attacks on Apr 27
and Apr 30. Price interaction with NTI Green is a point where the bear can
gain dominance, but also a point where the bull has recoiled violently
against bearish aggression. It will be interesting when this occurs in
this cycle.
This is a low volume bull and
once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of
configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull
gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One
could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a
potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.
-Tangential Protection –
The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100,
S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once
formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.
-Political Climate
– Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the
Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the
passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market
remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of
bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in
tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear.
The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but
with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and
reductions.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
–
We
will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this
tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence
the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in
the below link.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010).
Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some
unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as
the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and
non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.
The Quick-term bearish yellow curve
stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below
this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in
this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this
phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little
challenge this theme.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term
Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Volume indicators are nudging higher.
They are configuring robustly with mixed bullish and bearish support.
Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little
justification for not holding and participating in this rally. The
Near-term Indicant has oiled the sell trigger and getting ready.
(Recent
chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).
Apr 30,
2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression, suggests increasing
bearish interest. This is the second time this week with these bearish
attributes and the third time in the past 30-trading days. The bear is
again attempting to rally support for its ambition.
Apr 29,
2010-Thu-Aggressive volume on bullish aggression has nearly offset last
Tuesday’s bear attack. Keep in mind, though that last Tuesday’s bearish
volume was more aggressive than today’s bullish volume. That suggests
indecisiveness in institutional investing, which has been the primary
driver of this year long bull leg.
Apr 28,
2010-Wed-Aggressive volume again on flat behavior is not inviting a
bullish response to yesterday’s bear attack.
Apr 27,
2010-Tue-Aggressive volume on aggressive bearishness for the second time
within two weeks is threatening to bullish bias and significantly so.
Apr 26,
2010-Mon-Volume was relatively mild and thus no evidence of a shift from
bullish bias.
Apr 23,
2010-Fri-Volume on both indices was within recent norms. That coupled with
meandering behavior continues suggesting prevailing bullish bias. NYSE
remaining at supply/demand equilibrium. The next few weeks will be
interesting from a volume perspective.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 8.5%, annualizing at 39.8%, since their buy signals an average
of 11.0-weeks ago.
The NTI is
avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of 7.5% since their sell
signals an average of 4.4-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 35.5% since their buy signals an average of 45.8-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 40.3%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding one ETF. It is down 64.8% since its sell
signal 57.1-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bull Count; Seven; several lost and thus with only minority bullish
support.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 25-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.
NTI Green
Bear Count; two non-contrarians; non-bearish with a mild threat to bull.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; majority of 25-sloping north; non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 25-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term
Bull.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to
any potential bearish aggression).
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along
a slower moving plane.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
STI Force
Vector Direction; four moving bullishly. Irrelevant at this point.
STI Force
Vector Position; four populating bullish domains; four greater than
Pressure; mild bullish support.
Vector
Pressure Position; a majority of 30-non-contrarians in bullish domains;
bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure remains
near zero and has for several weeks.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 11-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support.
Not yet threatening. The bearish threat will occur if pressure falls into
bearish domains.
Short-term
Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources
is up 4.4%
since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at
27.4%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up
16.5% since that buy signal, annualizing at 22.0%.
The
Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI
Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.
As stated
early last week, this remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull
and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues
threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain
bullish. This remains in effect regardless of recent bearish aggression.
BP’s oil
spill has resulted in bearish energy in this sector. Other countries will
continue exploration and drilling without any regard to U.S. politician’s
negative commentary and legislative activity. The rest of the world needs
oil and that is fundamentally bullish for this sector, unless the
worldwide economy dips back into recession.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 43.0%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
30.7%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $101.81 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 3.9% since that
buy signal, annualizing at 23.9%.
Click
this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As stated
for the last year-plus months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is
somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until
the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant models on Apr
27, 2010. It is up 0.7% since those buy signals.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 15.4% since then.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
64.8% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $21.93 and still
falling.
Major ETF Events
Apr
30, 2010-Fri-Today’s bearish aggression enjoyed a bit more substance than
yesterday’s bearish aggression. However, the Dow Utilities did not
participate again suggesting required breadth for dynamic directional
bearish behavior.
Apr
29, 2010-Thu-Today’s bullish behavior lacked breadth. Commodities did not
participate, which suggest a continuation of the bearish threat to bullish
bias. As long as prices flutter around NTI bullish blue curve, such
threats remains as just that; threats without any bite.
Apr
28, 2010-Wed-Several ETF’s regained blue bull status today. As you can
see, prices are vacillating around the bullish elements. Thus, the bearish
threats are not viewed as serious at this time. Fundamentally, there is
justification for a bearish prognosis, but until technical support
demonstrates that prognosis, holding remains justified.
Apr
27, 2010-Tue-Bearish aggression on high volume is threatening to bullish
bias.
Apr
26, 2010-Mon-None
Apr
23, 2010-Fri-ETF#03-Energy
was aggressively bullish today. This was technically expected early this
past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian demand, and excessive
government spending should add inflationary fuel, which is bullish for the
energy related sector.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 30, 2010-Same as yesterday. Apr
29, 2010-Bearis threats remain, but for the most part, they are just
threats. Apr 28, 2010-Wed-Wait for sell signals, regardless of how gloomy
fundamentals are. Apr 27, 2010-Tue-The Near-term Indicant is readying sell
signals. However, the Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until
prices interact with bearish yellow. Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Holding remains
safe; bullish bias prevails. Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Same as yesterday. This
segment of the NTI Blue Bull is the strongest segment since the bear
originated in March 2009.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
04/30/10
Apr 29,
2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 04, Issue
20 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and
Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the
latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. Some
prices are interacting with NTI Green curve and thus threatening to hold
signals. The bear is being encouraged with this interaction.
However, most ETF’s and major indices are fluttering around NTI Bullish
Blue. Since most of the fluttering is centered around this bullish
element, bearish threats are not taken seriously in spite of the souring
economic fundamentals from abroad. Fluttering around the NTI Bearish Green
curve is where bear attacks should be taken seriously. There are only a
few ETF’s with this configuration. None of the major indices are enduring
proximity with the NTI Bearish Green Curve with the exception of the DJU
and VIX.
A
few NTI bullish blues collapsed the past few days. Since March 2009, this
led to bearish spurts followed by stronger bullish responses. As long as
Pressure remains in bullish domains, the bull will remain dominant.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up
7.0% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 49.3%. The
lone bear, DJU, is up 1.7% since the NTI Bear signal 12.9-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up by
an average of 30.1%, annualizing at 37.3%, since their bull signals an
average of 42.0-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and
when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves. The
exception to this is the mischievous VIX, which is fluttering around
bearish yellow. This index is contrarian to the overall stock market, but
retaining enough attributes to suggest bullish potential for the VIX and
bearish potential for the overall stock market.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for the Dow Jones Utilities. It is
up 5.2% since its bear signal 11.4-weeks ago.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle
than Near-term cycles)
QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish.
Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you
enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant
gains.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.
The Quick-term Indicant remains
supportive of the QTI Bull.
Near-term Attributes (This
is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten
non-contrarians; lost eight Blue Bulls on Apr 27 bearish aggression, but
regained six of them on today’s bullish aggression, adding a bit of
support to bullish bias. The problem is that the NTI Blue curve is getting
lazy, which can be arousing to the bear.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on
Mar 4, 2010.
The Near-term attributes remain in
favor of the bull.
Short-term Force Vectors
and Pressure Attributes
STI-Force Vector Domain Position;
Nine non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.
STI-Force Vector Position
Relative to Vector Pressure; Three non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior
mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors
are not bullishly aggressive other than the VIX.
STI-Force Vector Direction; Only
one non-contrarian moving north; no bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Three
non-contrarians are moving bullishly; low neutral support.
STI-Vector Pressure Position;
Eleven non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support, but still
near convergence, which has been occurring for several weeks. This
correlates to indecisiveness in directional intensity.
Short-term Market Summary
Short-term attributes continue
configuring in support of the bull in spite of the bear attack on Apr 27.
This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle
has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth.
However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy
significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is
bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus
elevating their prices. Although aggressive volume accompanied today’s
behavior it remains without the desired volume for additional bullish
sustainability.
-Tangential Protection –
The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100,
S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once
formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.
-Political Climate
– Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the
Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the
passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market
remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of
bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in
tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear.
The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but
with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and
reductions.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
–
We
will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this
tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence
the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in
the below link.
The Quick-term bearish yellow curve
stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below
this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in
this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this
phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little
challenge this theme.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010).
Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some
unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as
the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and
non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term
Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Volume indicators are nudging higher.
Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little
justification for not holding and participating in this rally. The
Near-term Indicant has oiled the sell trigger and getting ready.
(Recent
chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).
Apr 29,
2010-Thu-Aggressive volume on bullish aggression has nearly offset last
Tuesday’s bear attack. Keep in mind, though that last Tuesday’s bearish
volume was more aggressive than today’s bullish volume. That suggests
indecisiveness in institutional investing, which has been the primary
driver of this year long bull leg.
Apr 28,
2010-Wed-Aggressive volume again on flat behavior is not inviting a
bullish response to yesterday’s bear attack.
Apr 27,
2010-Tue-Aggressive volume on aggressive bearishness for the second time
within two weeks is threatening to bullish bias and significantly so.
Apr 26,
2010-Mon-Volume was relatively mild and thus no evidence of a shift from
bullish bias.
Apr 23,
2010-Fri-Volume on both indices was within recent norms. That coupled with
meandering behavior continues suggesting prevailing bullish bias. NYSE
remaining at supply/demand equilibrium. The next few weeks will be
interesting from a volume perspective.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 10.2%, annualizing at 48.8%, since their buy signals an average
of 10.9-weeks ago.
The NTI is
avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by 8.5% since their sell signals an
average of 4.2-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 37.8% since their buy signals an average of 45.7-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 43.0%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding one ETF. It is down 66.2% since its sell
signal 57.0-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bull Count; 21-majority bullish support.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 25-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.
NTI Green
Bear Count; two non-contrarians; non-bearish with a mild threat to bull.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; majority of 27-sloping north; non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 25-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term
Bull.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to
any potential bearish aggression).
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along
a slower moving plane.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
STI Force
Vector Direction; four moving bullishly. Irrelevant at this point.
STI Force
Vector Position; nine populating bullish domains; nine greater than
Pressure; mild bullish support.
Vector
Pressure Position; a majority of 30-non-contrarians in bullish domains;
bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure remains
near zero and has for several weeks.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 13-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support.
Not yet threatening. The bearish threat will occur if pressure falls into
bearish domains.
Short-term
Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources
is up 5.7%
since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at
36.1%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up
18.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 24.1%.
The
Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI
Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.
As stated
early last week, this remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull
and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues
threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain
bullish. This remains in effect regardless of yesterday’s bearish
aggression. This ETF recoiled with solid bullish behavior today.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 41.7%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
29.8%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $101.72 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 2.9% since that
buy signal, annualizing at 18.2%.
Click
this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As stated
for the last year-plus months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is
somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until
the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant models on Apr
27, 2010. It is down 0.4% since those buy signals.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 18.6% since then.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
66.2% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.00 and still
falling.
Major ETF Events
Apr
29, 2010-Thu-Today’s bullish behavior lacked breadth. Commodities did not
participate, which suggest a continuation of the bearish threat to bullish
bias. As long as prices flutter around NTI bullish blue curve, such
threats remains as just that; threats without any bite.
Apr
28, 2010-Wed-Several ETF’s regained blue bull status today. As you can
see, prices are vacillating around the bullish elements. Thus, the bearish
threats are not viewed as serious at this time. Fundamentally, there is
justification for a bearish prognosis, but until technical support
demonstrates that prognosis, holding remains justified.
Apr
27, 2010-Tue-Bearish aggression on high volume is threatening to bullish
bias.
Apr
26, 2010-Mon-None
Apr
23, 2010-Fri-ETF#03-Energy
was aggressively bullish today. This was technically expected early this
past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian demand, and excessive
government spending should add inflationary fuel, which is bullish for the
energy related sector.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 29, 2010-Bearis threats remain,
but for the most part, they are just threats. Apr 28, 2010-Wed-Wait for
sell signals, regardless of how gloomy fundamentals are. Apr 27,
2010-Tue-The Near-term Indicant is readying sell signals. However, the
Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until prices interact with
bearish yellow. Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Holding remains safe; bullish bias
prevails. Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Same as yesterday. This segment of the NTI Blue
Bull is the strongest segment since the bear originated in March 2009.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
04/29/10
Apr 28,
2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 04, Issue
19 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and
Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the
latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. Some
prices are interacting with NTI Green curve and thus threatening to hold
signals. The bear is being encouraged with this interaction.
However, most ETF’s and major indices are fluttering around NTI Bullish
Blue. Since most of the fluttering is centered around the bullish element,
bearish threats are not taken seriously in spite of the souring economic
fundamentals from abroad. Fluttering around the NTI Bearish Green curve is
where bear attacks should be taken seriously and there are only a few with
this configuration.
A
few NTI bullish blues collapsed the past few days. Since March 2009, this
led to bearish spurts followed by stronger bullish responses. As long as
Pressure remains in bullish domains, the bull will remain dominant.
QTI
Red Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish
potential. Some ETF’s lost Red Bull status on yesterday’s bearish
aggression. However, prices remain well above the Quick-term Bearish
yellow curve. QTI sell/bear signals will not occur until prices interact
with QTI Yellow. Patience here is important as most of the hold signals
are over a year old and any selling will result in nice profits. Selling
before price interaction with yellow will put you into a Near-term mode,
which can invite more nervousness.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bull and no new bears.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up
6.6% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 47.1%. The
lone bear is up 1.6% since the NTI Bear signal 12.7-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up by
an average of 29.3%, annualizing at 36.4%, since their bull signals an
average of 41.8-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and
when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for the Dow Jones Utilities. It is
up 5.1% since its bear signal 11.3-weeks ago.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle
than Near-term cycles)
QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish.
Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you
enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant
gains.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.
The Quick-term Indicant remains
supportive of the QTI Bull.
Near-term Attributes (This
is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Four
non-contrarians; lost eight Blue Bulls on Apr 27 bearish aggression.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on
Mar 4, 2010.
The Near-term attributes remain in
favor of the bull.
Short-term Force Vectors
and Pressure Attributes
STI-Force Vector Domain Position;
Eight non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.
STI-Force Vector Position
Relative to Vector Pressure; Two non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior
mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors
are not bullishly aggressive.
STI-Force Vector Direction; Only
one non-contrarian moving north; no bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Six
non-contrarians are moving bullishly; neutral support.
STI-Vector Pressure Position;
Eight non-contrarians are in bullish domains; mild bullish support.
Short-term Market Summary
Short-term attributes continue
configuring in support of the bull in spite of the bear attack on Apr 27.
This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle
has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth.
However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy
significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is
bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus
elevating their prices.
-Tangential Protection –
The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100,
S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once
formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.
-Political Climate
– Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the
Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the
passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market
remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of
bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in
tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear.
The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but
with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and
reductions.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
–
We
will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this
tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence
the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in
the below link.
The Quick-term bearish yellow curve
stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below
this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in
this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this
phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little
challenge this theme.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010).
Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some
unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as
the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and
non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term
Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Volume indicators are nudging higher.
Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little
justification for not holding and participating in this rally. The
Near-term Indicant has oiled the sell trigger and getting ready.
(Recent
chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).
Apr 28,
2010-Wed-Aggressive volume again on flat behavior is not inviting a
bullish response to yesterday’s bear attack.
Apr 27,
2010-Tue-Aggressive volume on aggressive bearishness for the second time
within two weeks is threatening to bullish bias and significantly so.
Apr 26,
2010-Mon-Volume was relatively mild and thus no evidence of a shift from
bullish bias.
Apr 23,
2010-Fri-Volume on both indices was within recent norms. That coupled with
meandering behavior continues suggesting prevailing bullish bias. NYSE
remaining at supply/demand equilibrium. The next few weeks will be
interesting from a volume perspective.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 8.6%, annualizing at 41.7%, since their buy signals an average
of 10.8-weeks ago.
The NTI is
avoiding one ETF. It is down by 15.8% since its sell signal 8.1-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 35.7% since their buy signals an average of 45.5-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 40.8%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding one ETF. It is down 65.0% since its sell
signal 56.9-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bull Count; 11-majority bullish support. Several regained today.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 25-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.
NTI Green
Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 23-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term
Bull.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to
any potential bearish aggression).
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along
a slower moving plane.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
STI Force
Vector Direction: Eight-moving bullishly. Irrelevant at this point.
STI Force
Vector Position; 12-populating bullish domains; 11-greater than Pressure;
bullish support.
Vector
Pressure Position; a majority of 30-non-contrarians in bullish domains;
bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near
zero.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 13-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support.
Not yet threatening. The bearish threat will occur if pressure falls into
bearish domains.
Short-term
Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources
is up 5.6%
since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at
36.0%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up
17.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 24.0%.
The
Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI
Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.
As stated
early last week, this remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull
and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues
threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain
bullish. This remains in effect regardless of yesterday’s bearish
aggression. This ETF recoiled with solid bullish behavior today.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 41.7%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
29.9%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $101.62 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 3.0% since that
buy signal, annualizing at 18.7%.
Click
this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As stated
for the last year-plus months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is
somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until
the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant models on Apr
27, 2010. It is down 0.9% since those buy signals. Pressure crossed into
bullish domains, which could excite the bear. This could be a quick trade.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 15.8% since then.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
65.0% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.07 and still
falling.
Major ETF Events
Apr
28, 2010-Wed-Several ETF’s regained blue bull status today. As you can
see, prices are vacillating around the bullish elements. Thus, the bearish
threats are not viewed as serious at this time. Fundamentally, there is
justification for a bearish prognosis, but until technical support
demonstrates that prognosis, holding remains justified.
Apr
27, 2010-Tue-Bearish aggression on high volume is threatening to bullish
bias.
Apr
26, 2010-Mon-None
Apr
23, 2010-Fri-ETF#03-Energy
was aggressively bullish today. This was technically expected early this
past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian demand, and excessive
government spending should add inflationary fuel, which is bullish for the
energy related sector.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 28, 2010-Wed-Wait for sell
signals, regardless of how gloomy fundamentals are. Apr 27, 2010-Tue-The
Near-term Indicant is readying sell signals. However, the Quick-term
Indicant will not signal sell until prices interact with bearish yellow.
Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Holding remains safe; bullish bias prevails. Apr 23,
2010-Fri-Same as yesterday. This segment of the NTI Blue Bull is the
strongest segment since the bear originated in March 2009.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
04/28/10
Apr 27,
2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 04, Issue
18 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and
Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the
latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. Some
prices are interacting with NTI Green curve and thus threatening to hold
signals. The bear is being encouraged with this interaction.
QTI
Red Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish
potential. Some ETF’s lost Red Bull status on today’s bearish aggression.
However, prices remain well above the Quick-term bearish yellow curve. QTI
sell/bear signals will not occur until prices interact with QTI Yellow.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled one new bull and no new bears.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up
7.6% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 50.5%. The
lone bear is down 0.5% since the NTI Bear signal 12.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled one new bull and no new bears.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by
an average of 32.5%, annualizing at 36.9%, since their bull signals an
average of 45.9-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and
when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for the Dow Jones Utilities. It is
up 4.0% since its bear signal 11.1-weeks ago.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle
than Near-term cycles)
QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish.
Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you
enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant
gains.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.
The Quick-term Indicant remains
supportive of the QTI Bull.
Near-term Attributes (This
is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Four
non-contrarians; bullish support attacked today; lost eight Blue Bulls.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support. Today’s attack by the bear has not
yet defeated this attribute.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on
Mar 4, 2010.
The Near-term attributes remain in
favor of the bull.
Short-term Force Vectors
and Pressure Attributes
STI-Force Vector Domain Position;
Nine non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.
STI-Force Vector Position
Relative to Vector Pressure; Four non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior
mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors
are not bullishly aggressive.
STI-Force Vector Direction; Only
one non-contrarian moving north; no bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Nine
non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Position; Ten
non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support.
Short-term Market Summary
Short-term attributes continue
configuring in support of the bull in spite of the bear attack today. This
is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a
higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if
this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant
additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since
demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their
prices.
-Tangential Protection –
The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100,
S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once
formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.
-Political Climate
– Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the
Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the
passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market
remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of
bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in
tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear.
The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but
with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and
reductions.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
–
We
will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this
tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence
the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in
the below link.
The Quick-term bearish yellow curve
stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below
this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in
this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this
phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little
challenge this theme.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010).
Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some
unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as
the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and
non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term
Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Volume indicators are nudging higher.
Recent meandering behavior is not likely to continue. Although this is a
classical sucker rally configuration, there is little justification for
not holding and participating in this rally. The Near-term Indicant has
oiled the sell trigger and getting ready.
(Recent
chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).
Apr 27,
2010-Tue-Aggressive volume on aggressive bearishness for the second time
within two weeks is threatening to bullish bias and significantly so.
Apr 26,
2010-Mon-Volume was relatively mild and thus no evidence of a shift from
bullish bias.
Apr 23,
2010-Fri-Volume on both indices was within recent norms. That coupled with
meandering behavior continues suggesting prevailing bullish bias. NYSE
remaining at supply/demand equilibrium. The next few weeks will be
interesting from a volume perspective.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 8.0%, annualizing at 38.4%, since their buy signals an average
of 10.8-weeks ago.
The NTI is
avoiding one ETF. It is down by 15.7% since its sell signal 8.0-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 36.3% since their buy signals an average of 47.0-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 40.2%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding one ETF. It is down 65.0% since its sell
signal 56.7-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bull Count; 10-limited bullish support; no longer majority support.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 25-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.
NTI Green
Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 23-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term
Bull.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to
any potential bearish aggression).
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along
a slower moving plane.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
STI Force
Vector Direction: Eleven-moving bullishly.
STI Force
Vector Position; 13-populating bullish domains; 13-greater than Pressure;
bullish support.
Vector
Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains;
bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near
zero.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 14-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support.
Not yet threatening.
Short-term
Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources
is up 4.5%
since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at
29.7%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up
16.7% since that buy signal, annualizing at 22.5%.
The
Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI
Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.
As stated
early last week, this remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull
and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues
threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain
bullish. This remains in effect regardless of today’s bearish aggression.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 42.1%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
30.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $101.53 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 3.3% since that
buy signal, annualizing at 20.9%.
Click
this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is
somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until
the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant models today.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 15.7% since then.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
65.0% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.14 and still
falling.
Major ETF Events
Apr
27, 2010-Tue-Bearish aggression on high volume is threatening to bullish
bias.
Apr
26, 2010-Mon-None
Apr
23, 2010-Fri-ETF#03-Energy
was aggressively bullish today. This was technically expected early this
past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian demand, and excessive
government spending should add inflationary fuel, which is bullish for the
energy related sector.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 27, 2010-Tue-The Near-term
Indicant is readying sell signals. However, the Quick-term Indicant will
not signal sell until prices interact with bearish yellow. Apr 26,
2010-Mon-Holding remains safe; bullish bias prevails. Apr 23,
2010-Fri-Same as yesterday. This segment of the NTI Blue Bull is the
strongest segment since the bear originated in March 2009.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
04/27/10
Apr 26,
2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 04, Issue
17 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and
Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the
latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red
Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential.
Currently all three of these attributes remain supportive of bullish
ambition.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up
10.1% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 68.2%.
There are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average
of 2.5% since their respective bear signals an average of 10.1-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by
an average of 35.6%, annualizing at 40.5%, since their bull signals an
average of 45.7-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and
when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones
Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 0.7% since
their respective bear signals an average of 9.4-weeks ago.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle
than Near-term cycles)
QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish.
Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you
enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant
gains.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.
The Quick-term Indicant remains
supportive of the QTI Bull.
Near-term Attributes (This
is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Eleven
non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on
Mar 4, 2010.
The Near-term attributes remain in
favor of the bull.
Short-term Force Vectors
and Pressure Attributes
STI-Force Vector Domain Position;
Eleven non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.
STI-Force Vector Position
Relative to Vector Pressure; Ten non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior
mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors
are not bullishly aggressive.
STI-Force Vector Direction; All
eleven non-contrarian moving north; solid bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Nine
non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Position; Ten
non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support.
Short-term Market Summary
Short-term attributes continue
configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it
run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of
configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull
gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One
could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a
potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.
-Tangential Protection –
The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100,
S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once
formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.
-Political Climate
– Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the
Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the
passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market
remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of
bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in
tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear.
The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but
with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and
reductions.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
–
We
will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this
tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence
the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in
the below link.
The Quick-term bearish yellow curve
stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below
this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in
this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this
phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little
challenge this theme.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010).
Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some
unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as
the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and
non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term
Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Volume indicators are nudging higher.
Recent meandering behavior is not likely to continue. Although this is a
classical sucker rally configuration, there is little justification for
not holding and participating in this rally.
(Recent
chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).
Apr 26,
2010-Mon-Volume was relatively mild and thus no evidence of a shift from
bullish bias.
Apr 23,
2010-Fri-Volume on both indices was within recent norms. That coupled with
meandering behavior continues suggesting prevailing bullish bias. NYSE
remaining at supply/demand equilibrium. The next few weeks will be
interesting from a volume perspective.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 10.7%, annualizing at 52.0%, since their buy signals an average
of 10.7-weeks ago.
The NTI is
avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 9.9% since their sell
signals an average of 7.9-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 39.7% since their buy signals an average of 46.8-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 44.1%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of
33.7% since their sell signals an average of 32.1-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bull Count; 23-bullish support; majority support for Near-term Bull cycle.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 29-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.
NTI Green
Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 28-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term
Bull.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to
any potential bearish aggression).
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29 -sloping north, highlighting
non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
STI Force
Vector Direction: 13-moving bullishly.
STI Force
Vector Position; 19-populating bullish domains; 19-greater than Pressure;
bullish support.
Vector
Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains;
bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near
zero.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 14-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support.
Not yet threatening.
Short-term
Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources
is up 7.8%
since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at
52.3%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up
20.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 27.6%.
The
Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI
Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.
As stated
early last week, this remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull
and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues
threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain
bullish.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 39.8%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
28.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $101.33 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 1.6% since that
buy signal, annualizing at 10.2%.
Click
this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is
somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until
the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
is down
0.7% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 1.0% since
that sell signal.
Pressure
remains in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear. Force
appears ready to turn back to the south, offering the TLT bull little
inspiration. Force has been wavering the past few days, suggesting
indecisiveness in directional intensity. Pressure dictates and remains
bearish.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 19.1% since then.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
66.4% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.21 and still
falling.
Major ETF Events
Apr
26, 2010-Mon-None
Apr
23, 2010-Fri-ETF#03-Energy
was aggressively bullish today. This was technically expected early this
past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian demand, and excessive
government spending should add inflationary fuel, which is bullish for the
energy related sector.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Holding remains safe;
bullish bias prevails. Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Same as yesterday. This segment of
the NTI Blue Bull is the strongest segment since the bear originated in
March 2009.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
04/26/10
Apr 23,
2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 04, Issue
16 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and
Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the
latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red
Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential.
Currently all three attributes remain supportive of bullish ambition.
ETF#10-IBB NTI Blue Curve collapsed on April 23, 2010, but configured
as a profit-taking dive at this time. It is the first non-contrarian to
indicate potential trouble for the bull. Its price is below Green, but
Pressure remains in bullish domains. Therefore, there is no sell signal.
ETF#03-XLE-Energy was explosively bullish today. This was technically
expected earlier this past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian
demand, excessive government spending, and anti-energy political pressure
should add inflationary pressures, which is bullish for the energy sector.
Interestingly,
ETF#11-GLD-Gold was nearly as bullish today.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up
10.4% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 74.3%.
There are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average
of 4.6% since their respective bear signals an average of 9.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by
an average of 35.9%, annualizing at 41.3%, since their bull signals an
average of 45.3-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and
when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones
Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 2.8% since
their respective bear signals an average of 8.9-weeks ago.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle
than Near-term cycles)
QTI-Red Bull Count; Eleven non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish.
Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you
enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant
gains.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.
The Quick-term Indicant remains
supportive of the QTI Bull.
Near-term Attributes (This
is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Eleven
non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on
Mar 4, 2010.
The Near-term attributes remain in
favor of the bull.
Short-term Force Vectors
and Pressure Attributes
STI-Force Vector Domain Position;
Eleven non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.
STI-Force Vector Position
Relative to Vector Pressure; Ten non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior
mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors
are not bullishly aggressive.
STI-Force Vector Direction; Eight
non-contrarian moving north; bullish support improved.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Seven
non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Position; All
non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support.
Short-term Market Summary
Short-term attributes continue
configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it
run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of
configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull
gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One
could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a
potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.
-Tangential Protection –
The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100,
S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once
formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.
-Political Climate
– Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the
Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the
passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market
remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of
bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in
tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear.
The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but
with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and
reductions.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
–
We
will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this
tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence
the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in
the below link.
The Quick-term bearish yellow curve
stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below
this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in
this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this
phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little
challenge this theme.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010).
Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some
unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as
the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and
non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term
Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Volume indicators are now leveling at
relatively high levels. Recent meandering behavior is not likely to
continue. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there
is little justification for not holding and participating in this rally.
(Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).
Apr 23,
2010-Fri-Volume on both indices was within recent norms. That coupled with
meandering behavior continues suggesting prevailing bullish bias. NYSE
remaining at supply/demand equilibrium. The next few weeks will be
interesting from a volume perspective.
Apr 22,
2010-Thu-Big board volume was relatively aggressive. Interestingly, its
Indicant Volume Indicator is leveling out at supply/demand equilibrium. If
it falls, that will suggest negative demand or positive supply (E.g., the
supply of big board stocks exceeds demand). That is not bullish. It also
is a configuration that can dampen bearish enthusiasm. The NASDAQ volume
was mildly aggressive today. It continues configuring with negative supply
or positive demand. In other words, the demand for NASDAQ stocks (mostly
Apple) exceeds the supply available for sale. That is a bullish
configuration. However, it is flattening out, suggesting reducing
enthusiasm
Apr 21,
2010-Wed-Big board volume continues settling, but at a relatively high
level. NASDAQ volume remains relatively flat. This parallels meandering
behavior the past two days, suggesting short-term trader confusion. Such
confusion does not change prevailing bullish bias.
Apr 20,
2010-Tue-Volume settled down today on flat stock market behavior, offering
no evidence of a shift away from bullish bias. (Last Friday’s high volume
possibly relates to Apple’s favorable profit report to expectations. Do
not be surprised at bullish behavior tomorrow with follow-on).
Apr 19,
2010-Mon-Although somewhat muted relative to last Friday, volume was again
aggressive, but on flat stock market behavior, as opposed to bearish
aggression last Friday. The high volume remains as a concern, but bullish
bias has not yet been disrupted.
Apr 16,
2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. However, NTI
Blue Bulls and QTI Red Bulls remain unthreatened. Such a configuration
without the protection of these Short-term bulls would be discerning. That
is not the case right now.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 10.8%, annualizing at 54.8%, since their buy signals an average
of 10.3-weeks ago.
The NTI is
avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 10.1% since their sell
signals an average of 7.4-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 39.9% since their buy signals an average of 46.4-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 44.7%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of
33.8% since their sell signals an average of 31.6-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bull Count; 23-bullish support; majority support for Near-term Bull cycle.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 29-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.
NTI Green
Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 28-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term
Bull.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to
any potential bearish aggression).
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along
a slower moving plane.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
STI Force
Vector Direction: nine-moving bullishly; the expected bullish behavior
occurred the last three days after the last bearish cycle.
STI Force
Vector Position; 17-populating bullish domains; 17-greater than Pressure;
bullish support.
Vector
Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains;
bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near
zero.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 13-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support.
Not yet threatening.
Short-term
Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources
is up 8.2%
since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at
57.9%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up
20.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.4%.
The
Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI
Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.
As stated
the past few days, this remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull
and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues
threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain
bullish.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 40.3%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
29.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $101.33 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 2.0% since that
buy signal, annualizing at 13.5%.
Click
this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is
somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until
the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
is down
0.8% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 1.1% since
that sell signal.
Pressure
remains in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear. Force
appears ready to turn back to the south, offering the TLT bull little
inspiration. Force has been wavering the past few days, suggesting
indecisiveness in directional intensity. Pressure dictates and remains
bearish.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 19.4% since then.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
66.5% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.28 and still
falling.
Major ETF Events
Apr
23, 2010-Fri-ETF#03-Energy
was aggressively bullish today. This was technically expected early this
past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian demand, and excessive
government spending should add inflationary fuel, which is bullish for the
energy related sector.
Apr
22, 2010-Thu-Big Board volume approached positive demand, but appears to
find that uncomfortable. In essence this timidity, at least for the
moment, suggests supply of stocks for sale exceed the demand. Although not
necessarily bearish, this attribute is not fomenting additional bullish
energy.
Apr
21, 2010-Wed-Flat market behavior the day after Apple’s extraordinarily
favorable earnings report suggests the market was already priced at the
magnitude of that favorability. The stock market is not focusing on the
now, which is more common than not.
Apr
20, 2010-Tue-Several attributes are at minor inflections suggesting
impending dynamic behavior. Since bias remains in favor of the bull, do
not be surprised at more bullishness. Fundamentally, Apple earnings
support this, in addition to other value adding organizations.
Apr
19, 2010-Mon-Several attributes are losing bullish steam, but not yet
threatening to bullish bias. Iceland’s Volcano is contributing to this.
Apr
16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. The NTI
Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull population remain as a majority and offers
resistance to follow-on bearish aggression. Until they expired, the
Short-term Bull remains in tact.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Same as yesterday.
This segment of the NTI Blue Bull is the strongest segment since the bear
originated in March 2009. Apr 22, 2010-Thu-Longer-term holding remains
safe. NTI Blue Bulls remain solid. Until they start collapsing, there are
no substantive bearish concerns.
ETF#10-IBB NTI Blue Curve collapsed today, but configured as a
profit-taking dive at this time. Apr 21, 2010-Wed-Apple’s earnings were
already priced into the market. However, configurations remain positioned
for bullish potential. If this potential does not manifest, configurations
are not supportive of bearish sustainability. Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Apple
earnings offer rebuttal to yesterday’s “fundamental” bearish comment.
Capitalists continue to impress in spite of bearish political noise. Do
not be surprised a bullish aggression the next few days. Apr 19,
2010-Mon-Fundamentals are souring. Goldman is under attack by politicians.
Rest assured any political action will be the antithesis of optimum. Even
though fundamental threats are increasing, bullish bias remains. Apr 16,
2010-Fri-To protect recent gains on recent buys, be prepared to sell if
bearish behavior continues with increasing volume. Gains from QTI buy
signals are well protected. If you are enjoying those gains wait for
contact with bearish yellow. Friday’s bearish aggression appears technical
at this point.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
04/23/10
Apr 22,
2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 04, Issue
15 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and
Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the
latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red
Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential.
Currently all three attributes remain supportive of bullish ambition.
ETF#10-IBB NTI Blue Curve collapsed today, but configured as a
profit-taking dive at this time. It is the first non-contrarian to
indicate potential trouble for the bull. Its price is below Green, but
Pressure remains in bullish domains. Therefore, there is no sell signal.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up
9.6% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 69.9%. There
are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 5.8%
since their respective bear signals an average of 9.5-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by
an average of 34.9%, annualizing at 40.2%, since their bull signals an
average of 45.1-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and
when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones
Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 4.1% since
their respective bear signals an average of 8.8-weeks ago.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle
than Near-term cycles)
QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish.
Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you
enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant
gains.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.
The Quick-term Indicant remains
supportive of the QTI Bull.
Near-term Attributes (This
is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten
non-contrarians and arguing with them is not profitable.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on
Mar 4, 2010.
The Near-term attributes remain in
favor of the bull.
Short-term Force Vectors
and Pressure Attributes
STI-Force Vector Domain Position;
Ten non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.
STI-Force Vector Position
Relative to Vector Pressure; Four non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior
mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors
are not bullishly aggressive.
STI-Force Vector Direction; Only
one non-contrarian moving north; bullish support evaporating.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Eight
non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Position; All
non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support.
Short-term Market Summary
Short-term attributes continue
configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it
run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of
configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull
gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One
could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a
potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.
-Tangential Protection –
The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100,
S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once
formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.
-Political Climate
– Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the
Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the
passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market
remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of
bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in
tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear.
The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but
with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and
reductions.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
–
We
will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this
tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence
the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in
the below link.
The Quick-term bearish yellow curve
stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below
this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in
this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this
phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little
challenge this theme.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010).
Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some
unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as
the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and
non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term
Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Volume indicators are now leveling at
relatively high levels. Recent meandering behavior is not likely to
continue. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there
is little justification for not holding and participating in this rally.
(Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).
Apr 22,
2010-Thu-Big board volume was relatively aggressive. Interestingly, its
Indicant Volume Indicator is leveling out at supply/demand equilibrium. If
it falls, that will suggest negative demand or positive supply (E.g., the
supply of big board stocks exceeds demand). That is not bullish. It also
is a configuration that can dampen bearish enthusiasm. The NASDAQ volume
was mildly aggressive today. It continues configuring with negative supply
or positive demand. In other words, the demand for NASDAQ stocks (mostly
Apple) exceeds the supply available for sale. That is a bullish
configuration. However, it is flattening out, suggesting reducing
enthusiasm
Apr 21,
2010-Wed-Big board volume continues settling, but at a relatively high
level. NASDAQ volume remains relatively flat. This parallels meandering
behavior the past two days, suggesting short-term trader confusion. Such
confusion does not change prevailing bullish bias.
Apr 20,
2010-Tue-Volume settled down today on flat stock market behavior, offering
no evidence of a shift away from bullish bias. (Last Friday’s high volume
possibly relates to Apple’s favorable profit report to expectations. Do
not be surprised at bullish behavior tomorrow with follow-on).
Apr 19,
2010-Mon-Although somewhat muted relative to last Friday, volume was again
aggressive, but on flat stock market behavior, as opposed to bearish
aggression last Friday. The high volume remains as a concern, but bullish
bias has not yet been disrupted.
Apr 16,
2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. However, NTI
Blue Bulls and QTI Red Bulls remain unthreatened. Such a configuration
without the protection of these Short-term bulls would be discerning. That
is not the case right now.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 10.0%, annualizing at 51.6%, since their buy signals an average
of 10.1-weeks ago.
The NTI is
avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 9.6% since their sell
signals an average of 7.3-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 38.9% since their buy signals an average of 46.2-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 43.7%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of
33.5% since their sell signals an average of 31.5-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bull Count; 21-bullish support; several lost on last Friday’s bearish
aggression, but four regained this week. Majority still supportive of
bull.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 29-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.
NTI Green
Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 26-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term
Bull.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to
any potential bearish aggression).
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along
a slower moving plane.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
STI Force
Vector Direction: four-moving bullishly; 18-shifted south the last five
days. The cycle is mature; Yesterday’s suggestion at an imminent bullish
response occurred today, but rather late in the day. Today’s swing was
perfect; staunch stock market bearishness early in the morning and solid
bullishness in the afternoon.
STI Force
Vector Position; 11-populating bullish domains; 11-greater than Pressure;
bullish support.
Vector
Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains;
bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near
zero.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 14-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support.
Not yet threatening.
Short-term
Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources
is up 5.7%
since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at
40.8%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up
17.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 24.6%.
The
Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI
Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.
This remains
as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull and is configuring for more
bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues threatening, oil prices and
related energy companies should remain bullish.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 38.7%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
28.0%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $101.24 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 0.7% since that
buy signal, annualizing at 5.2%.
Click
this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is
somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until
the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
is down
0.5% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 0.8% since
that sell signal.
Pressure
remains in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear. Force
appears ready to turn back to the south, offering the TLT bull little
inspiration. Force has been wavering the past few days, suggesting
indecisiveness in directional intensity. Pressure dictates and remains
bearish.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 18.8% since then.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
66.3% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.35 and still
falling.
Major ETF Events
Apr
22, 2010-Thu-Big Board volume approached positive demand, but appears to
find that uncomfortable. In essence this timidity, at least for the
moment, suggests supply of stocks for sale exceed the demand. Although not
necessarily bearish, this attribute is not fomenting additional bullish
energy.
Apr
21, 2010-Wed-Flat market behavior the day after Apple’s extraordinarily
favorable earnings report suggests the market was already priced at the
magnitude of that favorability. The stock market is not focusing on the
now, which is more common than not.
Apr
20, 2010-Tue-Several attributes are at minor inflections suggesting
impending dynamic behavior. Since bias remains in favor of the bull, do
not be surprised at more bullishness. Fundamentally, Apple earnings
support this, in addition to other value adding organizations.
Apr
19, 2010-Mon-Several attributes are losing bullish steam, but not yet
threatening to bullish bias. Iceland’s Volcano is contributing to this.
Apr
16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. The NTI
Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull population remain as a majority and offers
resistance to follow-on bearish aggression. Until they expired, the
Short-term Bull remains in tact.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 22, 2010-Thu-Longer-term holding
remains safe. NTI Blue Bulls remain solid. Until they start collapsing,
there are no substantive bearish concerns.
ETF#10-IBB NTI Blue Curve collapsed today, but configured as a
profit-taking dive at this time. Apr 21, 2010-Wed-Apple’s earnings were
already priced into the market. However, configurations remain positioned
for bullish potential. If this potential does not manifest, configurations
are not supportive of bearish sustainability. Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Apple
earnings offer rebuttal to yesterday’s “fundamental” bearish comment.
Capitalists continue to impress in spite of bearish political noise. Do
not be surprised a bullish aggression the next few days. Apr 19,
2010-Mon-Fundamentals are souring. Goldman is under attack by politicians.
Rest assured any political action will be the antithesis of optimum. Even
though fundamental threats are increasing, bullish bias remains. Apr 16,
2010-Fri-To protect recent gains on recent buys, be prepared to sell if
bearish behavior continues with increasing volume. Gains from QTI buy
signals are well protected. If you are enjoying those gains wait for
contact with bearish yellow. Friday’s bearish aggression appears technical
at this point.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
04/22/10
Apr 21,
2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 04, Issue
14 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and
Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the
latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red
Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential.
Currently all three attributes remain supportive of bullish ambition.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up
9.1% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 67.4%. There
are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 6.0%
since their respective bear signals an average of 9.4-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by
an average of 34.2%, annualizing at 39.6%, since their bull signals an
average of 45.0-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and
when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones
Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 4.3% since
their respective bear signals an average of 8.6-weeks ago.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle
than Near-term cycles)
QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish.
Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you
enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant
gains.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.
The Quick-term Indicant remains
supportive of the QTI Bull.
Near-term Attributes (This
is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten
non-contrarians and arguing with them is not profitable.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on
Mar 4, 2010.
The Near-term attributes remain in
favor of the bull.
Short-term Force Vectors
and Pressure Attributes
STI-Force Vector Domain Position;
Eleven non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.
STI-Force Vector Position
Relative to Vector Pressure; Seven non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior
mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors
are not bullishly aggressive.
STI-Force Vector Direction; Only
one non-contrarian moving north; bullish support evaporating.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Nine
non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Position; All
non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support.
Short-term Market Summary
Short-term attributes continue
configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it
run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of
configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull
gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One
could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a
potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.
-Tangential Protection –
The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100,
S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once
formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.
-Political Climate
– Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the
Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the
passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market
remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of
bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in
tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear.
The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but
with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and
reductions.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
–
We
will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this
tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence
the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in
the below link.
The Quick-term bearish yellow curve
stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below
this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in
this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this
phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little
challenge this theme.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010).
Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some
unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as
the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and
non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term
Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Volume indicators are shifting
robustly. Meandering behavior does not typically follow volume shifts.
Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little
justification for not holding and participating in this rally.
(Recent
chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).
Apr 21,
2010-Wed-Big board volume continues settling, but at a relatively high
level. NASDAQ volume remains relatively flat. This parallels meandering
behavior the past two days, suggesting short-term trader confusion. Such
confusion does not change prevailing bullish bias.
Apr 20,
2010-Tue-Volume settled down today on flat stock market behavior, offering
no evidence of a shift away from bullish bias. (Last Friday’s high volume
possibly relates to Apple’s favorable profit report to expectations. Do
not be surprised at bullish behavior tomorrow with follow-on).
Apr 19,
2010-Mon-Although somewhat muted relative to last Friday, volume was again
aggressive, but on flat stock market behavior, as opposed to bearish
aggression last Friday. The high volume remains as a concern, but bullish
bias has not yet been disrupted.
Apr 16,
2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. However, NTI
Blue Bulls and QTI Red Bulls remain unthreatened. Such a configuration
without the protection of these Short-term bulls would be discerning. That
is not the case right now.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 9.5%, annualizing at 49.7%, since their buy signals an average
of 9.0-weeks ago.
The NTI is
avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 9.0% since their sell
signals an average of 7.1-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 38.2% since their buy signals an average of 46.1-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 43.1%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of
33.2% since their sell signals an average of 31.4-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bull Count; 21-bullish support; several lost on last Friday’s bearish
aggression, but four regained this week. Majority still supportive of
bull.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 27-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.
NTI Green
Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 27-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term
Bull.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to
any potential bearish aggression).
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along
a slower moving plane.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
STI Force
Vector Direction: five-moving bullishly; 17-shifted south the last four
days. The cycle is mature, suggesting bullish response is imminent. No
bullish response will suggest increased weakness in the stock market bull.
STI Force
Vector Position; 11-populating bullish domains; 11-greater than Pressure;
bullish support.
Vector
Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains;
bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near
zero.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 19-moving north; bullish support, but losing a little
steam.
Short-term
Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources
is up 5.4%
since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at
39.7%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up
17.6% since that buy signal, annualizing at 24.3%.
The
Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI
Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.
This remains
as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull and is configuring for more
bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues threatening, oil prices and
related energy companies should remain bullish.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 39.3%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
29.5%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $101.15 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 1.2% since that
buy signal, annualizing at 8.4%.
Click
this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is
somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until
the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
is down
0.2% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 0.5% since
that sell signal.
Pressure
remains in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear. Force
appears ready to turn back to the south, offering the TLT bull little
inspiration.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 17.8% since then.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
65.8% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.42 and still
falling.
Major ETF Events
Apr
21, 2010-Wed-Flat market behavior the day after Apple’s extraordinarily
favorable earnings report suggests the market was already priced at the
magnitude of that favorability. The stock market is not focusing on the
now, which is more common than not.
Apr
20, 2010-Tue-Several attributes are at minor inflections suggesting
impending dynamic behavior. Since bias remains in favor of the bull, do
not be surprised at more bullishness. Fundamentally, Apple earnings
support this, in addition to other value adding organizations.
Apr
19, 2010-Mon-Several attributes are losing bullish steam, but not yet
threatening to bullish bias. Iceland’s Volcano is contributing to this.
Apr
16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. The NTI
Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull population remain as a majority and offers
resistance to follow-on bearish aggression. Until they expired, the
Short-term Bull remains in tact.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 21, 2010-Wed-Apple’s earnings were
already priced into the market. However, configurations remain positioned
for bullish potential. If this potential does not manifest, configurations
are not supportive of bearish sustainability. Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Apple
earnings offer rebuttal to yesterday’s “fundamental” bearish comment.
Capitalists continue to impress in spite of bearish political noise. Do
not be surprised a bullish aggression the next few days. Apr 19,
2010-Mon-Fundamentals are souring. Goldman is under attack by politicians.
Rest assured any political action will be the antithesis of optimum. Even
though fundamental threats are increasing, bullish bias remains. Apr 16,
2010-Fri-To protect recent gains on recent buys, be prepared to sell if
bearish behavior continues with increasing volume. Gains from QTI buy
signals are well protected. If you are enjoying those gains wait for
contact with bearish yellow. Friday’s bearish aggression appears technical
at this point.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
04/21/10
Apr 20,
2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 04, Issue
13 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and
Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the
latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red
Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential.
Last Friday’s bearish aggression on very aggressive volume is ominous, but
not yet threatening to Short-term attributes. It more than raised an
eyebrow, though. Yesterday’s volume was also aggressive, but flat stock
market behavior offered no obviations of directional intensity.
Apple’s favorable earnings suggests last Friday’s volume surge could have
been in anticipation thereof. Insider leaks probably got to the “big fund”
and institutions. At any rate, this adds support to prevailing short-term
bullish bias.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up
8.9% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 67.3%. There
are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 6.7%
since their respective bear signals an average of 9.2-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by
an average of 34.0%, annualizing at 39.4%, since their bull signals an
average of 44.9-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and
when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones
Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 4.9% since
their respective bear signals an average of 8.5-weeks ago.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle
than Near-term cycles)
QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish.
Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you
enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant
gains.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.
The Quick-term Indicant remains
supportive of the QTI Bull.
Near-term Attributes (This
is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten
non-contrarians and arguing with them is not profitable.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on
Mar 4, 2010.
The Near-term attributes remain in
favor of the bull.
Short-term Force Vectors
and Pressure Attributes
STI-Force Vector Domain Position;
Ten non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.
STI-Force Vector Position
Relative to Vector Pressure; Eleven non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior
mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors
are not bullishly aggressive.
STI-Force Vector Direction; Only
one moving north; bullish support evaporating.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Ten
non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Position; All
non-contrarians are in bullish domains.
Short-term Market Summary
Short-term attributes continue
configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it
run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of
configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull
gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One
could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a
potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.
-Tangential Protection –
The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100,
S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once
formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.
-Political Climate
– Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the
Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the
passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market
remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of
bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in
tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear.
The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but
with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and
reductions.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
–
We
will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this
tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence
the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in
the below link.
The Quick-term bearish yellow curve
stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below
this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in
this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this
phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little
challenge this theme.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010).
Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some
unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as
the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and
non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term
Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Volume indicators are shifting
robustly. Meandering behavior does not typically follow volume shifts.
Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little
justification for not holding and participating in this rally.
(Recent
chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).
Apr 20,
2010-Tue-Volume settled down today on flat stock market behavior, offering
no evidence of a shift away from bullish bias. (Last Friday’s high volume
possibly relates to Apple’s favorable profit report to expectations. Do
not be surprised at bullish behavior tomorrow with follow-on).
Apr 19,
2010-Mon-Although somewhat muted relative to last Friday, volume was again
aggressive, but on flat stock market behavior, as opposed to bearish
aggression last Friday. The high volume remains as a concern, but bullish
bias has not yet been disrupted.
Apr 16,
2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. However, NTI
Blue Bulls and QTI Red Bulls remain unthreatened. Such a configuration
without the protection of these Short-term bulls would be discerning. That
is not the case right now.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 9.4%, annualizing at 49.7%, since their buy signals an average
of 9.8-weeks ago.
The NTI is
avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 8.9% since their sell
signals an average of 7.0-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 38.1% since their buy signals an average of 46.0-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 43.1%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of
33.4% since their sell signals an average of 31.2-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bull Count; 19-bullish support; several lost on last Friday’s bearish
aggression, but two regained today. Majority still supportive of bull.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 29-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.
NTI Green
Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 28-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term
Bull.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to
any potential bearish aggression).
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along
a slower moving plane.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
STI Force
Vector Direction: five-moving bullishly; 15-shifted south the last three
days. The cycle is mature, suggesting bullish response is imminent.
STI Force
Vector Position; 16-populating bullish domains; 16-greater than Pressure;
bullish support.
Vector
Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains;
bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near
zero.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 20-moving north; bullish support, but losing a little
steam.
Short-term
Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull. Recent
bullish behavior has elevated Pressure, which is bullish.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources
is up 5.5%
since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at
41.3%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up
17.8% since that buy signal, annualizing at 24.6%.
The
Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI
Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.
This remains
as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull and is configuring for more
bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues threatening, oil prices and
related energy companies should remain bullish.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 37.8%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
27.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $101.00 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 0.4% since that
buy signal, annualizing at 2.9%.
Click
this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is
somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until
the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
is down
1.0% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 1.3% since
that sell signal.
Pressure
remains in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear. Force
appears ready to turn back to the south, offering the TLT bull little
inspiration.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 16.9% since then.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
65.5% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.49 and still
falling.
Major ETF Events
Apr
20, 2010-Tue-Several attributes are at minor inflections suggesting
impending dynamic behavior. Since bias remains in favor of the bull, do
not be surprised at more bullishness. Fundamentally, Apple earnings
support this, in addition to other value adding organizations.
Apr
19, 2010-Mon-Several attributes are losing bullish steam, but not yet
threatening to bullish bias. Iceland’s Volcano is contributing to this.
Apr
16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. The NTI
Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull population remain as a majority and offers
resistance to follow-on bearish aggression. Until they expired, the
Short-term Bull remains in tact.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Apple earnings offer
rebuttal to yesterday’s “fundamental” bearish comment. Capitalists
continue to impress in spite of bearish political noise. Do not be
surprised a bullish aggression the next few days. Apr 19,
2010-Mon-Fundamentals are souring. Goldman is under attack by politicians.
Rest assured any political action will be the antithesis of optimum. Even
though fundamental threats are increasing, bullish bias remains. Apr 16,
2010-Fri-To protect recent gains on recent buys, be prepared to sell if
bearish behavior continues with increasing volume. Gains from QTI buy
signals are well protected. If you are enjoying those gains wait for
contact with bearish yellow. Friday’s bearish aggression appears technical
at this point.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
04/20/10
Apr 19,
2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 04, Issue
12 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and
Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the
latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red
Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential.
Last Friday’s bearish aggression on very aggressive volume is ominous, but
not yet threatening to Short-term attributes. It more than raised an
eyebrow, though. Today’s volume was also aggressive, but flat stock market
behavior offered no obviations of directional intensity.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up
8.0% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 62.0%. There
are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 3.8%
since their respective bear signals an average of 9.1-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by
an average of 32.9%, annualizing at 38.2%, since their bull signals an
average of 44.7-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and
when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones
Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 2.0% since
their respective bear signals an average of 8.4-weeks ago.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle
than Near-term cycles)
QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish.
Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you
enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant
gains.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.
The Quick-term Indicant remains
supportive of the QTI Bull.
Near-term Attributes (This
is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten
non-contrarians and arguing with them is not profitable.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on
Mar 4, 2010.
The Near-term attributes remain in
favor of the bull.
Short-term Force Vectors
and Pressure Attributes
STI-Force Vector Domain Position;
Ten non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.
STI-Force Vector Position
Relative to Vector Pressure; Eleven non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior
mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors
are not bullishly aggressive.
STI-Force Vector Direction; Two
moving north; bullish support evaporating.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Ten
non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Position; All
non-contrarians are in bullish domains.
Short-term Market Summary
Short-term attributes continue
configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it
run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of
configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull
gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One
could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a
potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.
-Tangential Protection –
The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100,
S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once
formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.
-Political Climate
– Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the
Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the
passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market
remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of
bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in
tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear.
The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but
with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and
reductions.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
–
We
will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this
tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence
the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in
the below link.
The Quick-term bearish yellow curve
stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below
this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in
this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this
phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little
challenge this theme.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010).
Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some
unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as
the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and
non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term
Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Volume indicators are shifting
robustly. Meandering behavior does not usually follow volume shifts. Although this is a classical sucker
rally configuration, there is little justification for not holding and
participating in this rally.
(Recent
chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).
Apr 19,
2010-Mon-Although somewhat muted relative to last Friday, volume was again
aggressive, but on flat stock market behavior, as opposed to bearish
aggression last Friday. The high volume remains as a concern, but bullish
bias has not yet been disrupted.
Apr 16,
2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. However, NTI
Blue Bulls and QTI Red Bulls remain unthreatened. Such a configuration
without the protection of these Short-term bulls would be discerning. That
is not the case right now.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 8.4%, annualizing at 45.4%, since their buy signals an average
of 9.7-weeks ago.
The NTI is
avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 8.7% since their sell
signals an average of 6.9-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 36.9% since their buy signals an average of 45.8-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 41.8%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of
33.4% since their sell signals an average of 31.1-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bull Count; 17-bullish support; several lost on last Friday’s bearish
aggression and two more today, but still a majority, but barely.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 29-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.
NTI Green
Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 26-non-contrarian; bullish support.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term
Bull.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to
any potential bearish aggression).
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along
a slower moving plane.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
STI Force
Vector Direction: six-moving bullishly; 14-shifted south the last two
days.
STI Force
Vector Position; 15-populating bullish domains; 15-greater than Pressure;
bullish support losing steam.
Vector
Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains;
bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near
zero.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 21-moving north; bullish support; five shifted to the
south the past two days, suggesting declining interest in bullish support.
Short-term
Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull. Recent
bullish behavior has elevated Pressure, which is bullish. Some were
attacked by the bear today, but remains configured in support of the bull.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources
is up 3.5%
since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at
26.7%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up
15.5% since that buy signal, annualizing at 21.5%.
The
Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI
Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.
This is
again a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 37.8%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
27.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $101.00 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 0.1% since that
buy signal, annualizing at 0.9%.
Volcanoes,
Iran’s nuclear bomb, and politicians worldwide suggest gold as an
attractive investment. It rises in price during periods of fear. There is
plenty to fear.
Click
this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is
somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until
the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
is down
1.4% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 1.6% since
that sell signal.
Force and
Pressure remain in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 16.0% since then.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
65.1% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.56 and still
falling.
Major ETF Events
Apr
19, 2010-Mon-Several attributes are losing bullish steam, but not yet
threatening to bullish bias. Iceland’s Volcano is contributing to this.
Apr
16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. The NTI
Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull population remain as a majority and offers
resistance to follow-on bearish aggression. Until they expired, the
Short-term Bull remains in tact.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Fundamentals are
souring. Goldman is under attack by politicians. Rest assured any
political action will be the antithesis of optimum. Even though
fundamental threats are increasing, bullish bias remains. Apr 16,
2010-Fri-To protect recent gains on recent buys, be prepared to sell if
bearish behavior continues with increasing volume. Gains from QTI buy
signals are well protected. If you are enjoying those gains wait for
contact with bearish yellow. Friday’s bearish aggression appears technical
at this point.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
04/19/10
Apr 16,
2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 04, Issue
11 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and
Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the
latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red
Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential.
So far, any bearish expressions should be considered as mere bearish
spurts.
Friday’s bearish aggression on very aggressive volume is ominous, but not
yet threatening to Short-term attributes. It more than raised an eyebrow,
though.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up
7.9% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 65.6%. There
are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 1.1%
since their respective bear signals an average of 8.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by
an average of 32.8%, annualizing at 38.5%, since their bull signals an
average of 44.3-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and
when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones
Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are up by an average of 0.5% since
their respective bear signals an average of 7.9-weeks ago.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle
than Near-term cycles)
QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish.
Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you
enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant
gains.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.
The Quick-term Indicant remains
supportive of the QTI Bull.
Near-term Attributes (This
is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten
non-contrarians and arguing with them is not profitable.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on
Mar 4, 2010.
The Near-term attributes remain in
favor of the bull.
Short-term Force Vectors
and Pressure Attributes
STI-Force Vector Domain Position;
Ten non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.
STI-Force Vector Position
Relative to Vector Pressure; Eleven non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior
mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors
are not bullishly aggressive.
STI-Force Vector Direction; Eight
moving north; bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Ten
non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Position; All
non-contrarians are in bullish domains.
Short-term Market Summary
Short-term attributes continue
configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it
run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of
configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull
gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One
could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a
potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.
-Tangential Protection –
The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100,
S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once
formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.
-Political Climate
– Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the
Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the
passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market
remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of
bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in
tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear.
The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but
with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and
reductions.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
–
We
will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this
tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence
the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in
the below link.
The Quick-term bearish yellow curve
stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below
this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in
this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this
phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little
challenge this theme.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010).
Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some
unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as
the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and
non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term
Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Both major indices are enjoying
relatively mild volume, suggesting little interest in shifting bias away
from the bull. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration,
there is little justification for not holding and participating in this
rally.
(Recent
chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).
Apr 16,
2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. However, NTI
Blue Bulls and QTI Red Bulls remain unthreatened. Such a configuration
without the protection of these Short-term bulls would be discerning. That
is not the case right now.
Apr 15,
2010-Thu-Big board volume was relatively high on mild bearishness. NASDAQ
volume was relatively flat on mild bullishness. There are no obviations of
shifts in directional intensity from volume observations. Therefore,
bullish bias prevails.
Apr 14,
2010-Wed-Increased volume on bullish aggression suggests add punch to the
bull’s vigor.
Apr 13,
2010-Tue-Increased volume on flat market behavior continues status quo;
bullish bias.
Apr 12,
2010-Mon-Same as last Friday.
Apr 9,
2010-Fri-Again mild volume and mild bullishness continues supporting
prevailing bullish bias.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 8.5%, annualizing at 47.6%, since their buy signals an average
of 9.3-weeks ago.
The NTI is
avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 8.7% since their sell
signals an average of 6.4-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 37.0% since their buy signals an average of 45.4-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 42.3%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of
33.3% since their sell signals an average of 30.6-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bull Count; 19-bullish support; several lost on Friday’s bearish
aggression, but still a majority.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 29-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.
NTI Green
Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 27-non-contrarian; bullish support.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term
Bull.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to
any potential bearish aggression).
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along
a slower moving plane.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
STI Force
Vector Direction: 15-moving bullishly; eight shifted back to the south
today.
STI Force
Vector Position; 21-populating bullish domains; 21-greater than Pressure;
bullish support, but six lost on Friday in both categories.
Vector
Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains;
bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near
zero.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 26-moving north; bullish support; two shifted direction on
Friday to the south.
Short-term
Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull. Recent
bullish behavior has elevated Pressure, which is bullish. Some were
attacked by the bear today, but remains configured in support of the bull.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources
is up 3.3%
since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at
27.4%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up
15.3% since that buy signal, annualizing at 21.6%.
The
Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI
Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.
This is
again a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 37.9%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
27.8%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $100.93 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 0.2% since that
buy signal, annualizing at 1.6%. Recent bearish threats had diminished but
still pestering the gold bull.
Interestingly, Force and Pressure microscopically entered bullish domains
on Mar 31-Wed, offering a bit more support for the golden bull. Since
then, GLD has moved solidly to the north, but attacked by the gold bear on
Friday.
Click
this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is
somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until
the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
is down
1.1% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 1.4% since
that sell signal.
Force and
Pressure remain in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 16.2% since then.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
65.2% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.63 and still
falling.
Major ETF Events
Apr
16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. The NTI
Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull population remain as a majority and offers
resistance to follow-on bearish aggression. Until they expired, the
Short-term Bull remains in tact.
Apr
15, 2010-Thu-There were no major events.
Apr
14, 2010-Wed-Although today’s bullish behavior was impressive, Utilities
did not participate. This suggests rotational trading behavior and thus
lacking desired breadth. However, volume was aggressive adding spice to
bullish desires. Somewhat of a conflicting message, which suggests
continued caution.
Apr
13, 2010-Tue-Several Force Vectors shifted south today, but not yet
threatening.
Apr
12, 2010-Mon-No major events.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 16, 2010-To protect recent gains
on recent buys, be prepared to sell if bearish behavior continues with
increasing volume. Gains from QTI buy signals are well protected. If you
are enjoying those gains wait for contact with bearish yellow. Friday’s
bearish aggression appears technical at this point. Apr 15,
2010-Thu-Holding remains safe. Apr 14, 2010-Wed-Aggressive volume
accompanied bullish behavior. If this relationship continues in the next
few days, conditions will be favorable for additional buying. Keep in
mind, volume surges sometime precede directional reversals. Apr 13,
2010-Tue-Same as yesterday. Apr 12, 2010-Mon-Holding remains safe; new
buying not strong; need more volume.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
04/16/10
Apr 15,
2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 04, Issue
10 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and
Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the
latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red
Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential.
So far, any bearish expressions should be considered as mere bearish
spurts.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up
9.5% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 80.1%. There
are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 7.1%
since their respective bear signals an average of 8.5-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by
an average of 34.7%, annualizing at 40.9%, since their bull signals an
average of 44.1-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and
when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones
Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 5.4% since
their respective bear signals an average of 7.8-weeks ago.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle
than Near-term cycles)
QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish.
Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you
enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant
gains.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.
The Quick-term Indicant remains
supportive of the QTI Bull.
Near-term Attributes (This
is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten
non-contrarians and arguing with them is not profitable.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend;
Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on
Mar 4, 2010.
The Near-term attributes remain in
favor of the bull.
Short-term Force Vectors
and Pressure Attributes
STI-Force Vector Domain Position;
Eleven non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.
STI-Force Vector Position
Relative to Vector Pressure; Eleven non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior
mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors
are not bullishly aggressive.
STI-Force Vector Direction;
Eleven moving north, strong bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Eleven
non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.
STI-Vector Pressure Position; All
non-contrarians are in bullish domains.
Short-term Market Summary
Short-term attributes continue
configuring in support of the bull. Prior declining Force Vectors
redirected to the north. This eliminated the mild bearish threat. This is
a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a
higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if
this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant
additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since
demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their
prices.
-Tangential Protection –
The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100,
S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once
formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.
-Political Climate
– Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the
Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the
passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market
remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of
bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in
tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear.
The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but
with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and
reductions.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
–
We
will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this
tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence
the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in
the below link.