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April Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Updates

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Apr 30, 2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 21 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success.  Some prices are interacting with NTI Green curve and thus threatening to hold signals. The bear is being encouraged with this interaction.

 

However, most ETF’s and major indices are fluttering around NTI Bullish Blue. Since most of the fluttering is centered around this bullish element, bearish threats are not taken seriously in spite of the souring economic fundamentals from abroad. Fluttering around the NTI Bearish Green curve is where bear attacks should be taken seriously. There are only a few ETF’s with this configuration. None of the major indices are enduring proximity with the NTI Bearish Green Curve with the exception of the DJU and VIX.

 

A few NTI bullish blues collapsed the past few days. Since March 2009, this led to bearish spurts followed by stronger bullish responses. As long as Pressure remains in bullish domains, the bull will remain dominant.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 6.6% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 45.3%.  The lone bear, DJU, is up 2.6% since the NTI Bear signal 13.0-weeks ago. Interestingly, the DJU was bullish on today’s bearish aggression.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up by an average of 29.2%, annualizing at 36.0%, since their bull signals an average of 42.1-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves. The exception to this is the mischievous VIX, which is fluttering around bearish yellow. This index is contrarian to the overall stock market, but retaining enough attributes to suggest bullish potential for the VIX and bearish potential for the overall stock market.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for the Dow Jones Utilities. It is up 6.1% since its bear signal 11.6-weeks ago.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

 

The Quick-term Indicant remains supportive of the QTI Bull.

     

      Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Three non-contrarians; lost eight Blue Bulls on Apr 27 bearish aggression, regained on Apr 29, and lost seven on Friday’s bearish aggression. This attribute is having difficulty retaining Blue Bull bias. As stated on Thursday, Apr 29, the NTI Blue curve is getting lazy, which can arouse the bear.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on Mar 4, 2010.

     

The Near-term attributes remain in favor of the bull, but faltering a bit.

 

      Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

      STI-Force Vector Domain Position; Four non-contrarians in bullish domain, mildly supporting bull.

      STI-Force Vector Position Relative to Vector Pressure; Only one non-contrarian above Pressure. Prior mild bearish threat subsided, but again threatening. Force Vectors are not bullishly aggressive other than the VIX.

      STI-Force Vector Direction; Only one non-contrarian moving north; no bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Three non-contrarians are moving bullishly; low neutral bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Position; Eleven non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support, but still near convergence, which has been occurring for several weeks. This correlates to indecisiveness in directional intensity.

     

      Short-term Market Summary

      Short-term attributes continue configuring in support of the bull in spite of the bear attacks on Apr 27 and Apr 30. Price interaction with NTI Green is a point where the bear can gain dominance, but also a point where the bull has recoiled violently against bearish aggression. It will be interesting when this occurs in this cycle.

      This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.

 

-Tangential Protection The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100, S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.

 

-Political Climate – Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear. The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and reductions.  

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection We will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010). Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.

 

The Quick-term bearish yellow curve stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little challenge this theme.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

Volume indicators are nudging higher. They are configuring robustly with mixed bullish and bearish support. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little justification for not holding and participating in this rally. The Near-term Indicant has oiled the sell trigger and getting ready. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

 

Apr 30, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression, suggests increasing bearish interest. This is the second time this week with these bearish attributes and the third time in the past 30-trading days. The bear is again attempting to rally support for its ambition.

 

Apr 29, 2010-Thu-Aggressive volume on bullish aggression has nearly offset last Tuesday’s bear attack. Keep in mind, though that last Tuesday’s bearish volume was more aggressive than today’s bullish volume. That suggests indecisiveness in institutional investing, which has been the primary driver of this year long bull leg.

 

Apr 28, 2010-Wed-Aggressive volume again on flat behavior is not inviting a bullish response to yesterday’s bear attack.

 

Apr 27, 2010-Tue-Aggressive volume on aggressive bearishness for the second time within two weeks is threatening to bullish bias and significantly so.

 

Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Volume was relatively mild and thus no evidence of a shift from bullish bias.

 

Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Volume on both indices was within recent norms. That coupled with meandering behavior continues suggesting prevailing bullish bias. NYSE remaining at supply/demand equilibrium. The next few weeks will be interesting from a volume perspective.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 8.5%, annualizing at 39.8%, since their buy signals an average of 11.0-weeks ago.

 

The NTI is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of 7.5% since their sell signals an average of 4.4-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 35.5% since their buy signals an average of 45.8-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 40.3%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding one ETF. It is down 64.8% since its sell signal 57.1-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bull Count; Seven; several lost and thus with only minority bullish support.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 25-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.

NTI Green Bear Count; two non-contrarians; non-bearish with a mild threat to bull.

NTI Green Curve Trend; majority of 25-sloping north; non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 25-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term Bull.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to any potential bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

STI Force Vector Direction; four moving bullishly. Irrelevant at this point.

STI Force Vector Position; four populating bullish domains; four greater than Pressure; mild bullish support.

Vector Pressure Position; a majority of 30-non-contrarians in bullish domains; bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure remains near zero and has for several weeks.

Vector Pressure Trend; 11-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support. Not yet threatening. The bearish threat will occur if pressure falls into bearish domains.

Short-term Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 4.4% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 27.4%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 16.5% since that buy signal, annualizing at 22.0%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

 

As stated early last week, this remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain bullish. This remains in effect regardless of recent bearish aggression.

 

BP’s oil spill has resulted in bearish energy in this sector. Other countries will continue exploration and drilling without any regard to U.S. politician’s negative commentary and legislative activity. The rest of the world needs oil and that is fundamentally bullish for this sector, unless the worldwide economy dips back into recession.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 43.0% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 30.7%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $101.81 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 3.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 23.9%.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated for the last year-plus months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant models on Apr 27, 2010. It is up 0.7% since those buy signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 15.4% since then.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 64.8% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $21.93 and still falling.

 

Major ETF Events

Apr 30, 2010-Fri-Today’s bearish aggression enjoyed a bit more substance than yesterday’s bearish aggression. However, the Dow Utilities did not participate again suggesting required breadth for dynamic directional bearish behavior.

Apr 29, 2010-Thu-Today’s bullish behavior lacked breadth. Commodities did not participate, which suggest a continuation of the bearish threat to bullish bias. As long as prices flutter around NTI bullish blue curve, such threats remains as just that; threats without any bite.

Apr 28, 2010-Wed-Several ETF’s regained blue bull status today. As you can see, prices are vacillating around the bullish elements. Thus, the bearish threats are not viewed as serious at this time. Fundamentally, there is justification for a bearish prognosis, but until technical support demonstrates that prognosis, holding remains justified.

Apr 27, 2010-Tue-Bearish aggression on high volume is threatening to bullish bias.

Apr 26, 2010-Mon-None

Apr 23, 2010-Fri-ETF#03-Energy was aggressively bullish today. This was technically expected early this past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian demand, and excessive government spending should add inflationary fuel, which is bullish for the energy related sector.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 30, 2010-Same as yesterday. Apr 29, 2010-Bearis threats remain, but for the most part, they are just threats. Apr 28, 2010-Wed-Wait for sell signals, regardless of how gloomy fundamentals are. Apr 27, 2010-Tue-The Near-term Indicant is readying sell signals. However, the Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until prices interact with bearish yellow. Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Holding remains safe; bullish bias prevails. Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Same as yesterday. This segment of the NTI Blue Bull is the strongest segment since the bear originated in March 2009.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

04/30/10

 

 

 

Apr 29, 2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 20 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success.  Some prices are interacting with NTI Green curve and thus threatening to hold signals. The bear is being encouraged with this interaction.

 

However, most ETF’s and major indices are fluttering around NTI Bullish Blue. Since most of the fluttering is centered around this bullish element, bearish threats are not taken seriously in spite of the souring economic fundamentals from abroad. Fluttering around the NTI Bearish Green curve is where bear attacks should be taken seriously. There are only a few ETF’s with this configuration. None of the major indices are enduring proximity with the NTI Bearish Green Curve with the exception of the DJU and VIX.

 

A few NTI bullish blues collapsed the past few days. Since March 2009, this led to bearish spurts followed by stronger bullish responses. As long as Pressure remains in bullish domains, the bull will remain dominant.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 7.0% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 49.3%.  The lone bear, DJU, is up 1.7% since the NTI Bear signal 12.9-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up by an average of 30.1%, annualizing at 37.3%, since their bull signals an average of 42.0-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves. The exception to this is the mischievous VIX, which is fluttering around bearish yellow. This index is contrarian to the overall stock market, but retaining enough attributes to suggest bullish potential for the VIX and bearish potential for the overall stock market.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for the Dow Jones Utilities. It is up 5.2% since its bear signal 11.4-weeks ago.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

 

The Quick-term Indicant remains supportive of the QTI Bull.

     

      Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten non-contrarians; lost eight Blue Bulls on Apr 27 bearish aggression, but regained six of them on today’s bullish aggression, adding a bit of support to bullish bias. The problem is that the NTI Blue curve is getting lazy, which can be arousing to the bear.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on Mar 4, 2010.

     

The Near-term attributes remain in favor of the bull.

 

      Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

      STI-Force Vector Domain Position; Nine non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.

      STI-Force Vector Position Relative to Vector Pressure; Three non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors are not bullishly aggressive other than the VIX.

      STI-Force Vector Direction; Only one non-contrarian moving north; no bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Three non-contrarians are moving bullishly; low neutral support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Position; Eleven non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support, but still near convergence, which has been occurring for several weeks. This correlates to indecisiveness in directional intensity.

     

      Short-term Market Summary

      Short-term attributes continue configuring in support of the bull in spite of the bear attack on Apr 27. This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their prices. Although aggressive volume accompanied today’s behavior it remains without the desired volume for additional bullish sustainability.

 

-Tangential Protection The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100, S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.

 

-Political Climate – Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear. The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and reductions.  

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection We will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link.

 

The Quick-term bearish yellow curve stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little challenge this theme.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010). Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

Volume indicators are nudging higher. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little justification for not holding and participating in this rally. The Near-term Indicant has oiled the sell trigger and getting ready. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

 

Apr 29, 2010-Thu-Aggressive volume on bullish aggression has nearly offset last Tuesday’s bear attack. Keep in mind, though that last Tuesday’s bearish volume was more aggressive than today’s bullish volume. That suggests indecisiveness in institutional investing, which has been the primary driver of this year long bull leg.

 

Apr 28, 2010-Wed-Aggressive volume again on flat behavior is not inviting a bullish response to yesterday’s bear attack.

 

Apr 27, 2010-Tue-Aggressive volume on aggressive bearishness for the second time within two weeks is threatening to bullish bias and significantly so.

 

Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Volume was relatively mild and thus no evidence of a shift from bullish bias.

 

Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Volume on both indices was within recent norms. That coupled with meandering behavior continues suggesting prevailing bullish bias. NYSE remaining at supply/demand equilibrium. The next few weeks will be interesting from a volume perspective.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 10.2%, annualizing at 48.8%, since their buy signals an average of 10.9-weeks ago.

 

The NTI is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by 8.5% since their sell signals an average of 4.2-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 37.8% since their buy signals an average of 45.7-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 43.0%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding one ETF. It is down 66.2% since its sell signal 57.0-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bull Count; 21-majority bullish support.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 25-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.

NTI Green Bear Count; two non-contrarians; non-bearish with a mild threat to bull.

NTI Green Curve Trend; majority of 27-sloping north; non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 25-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term Bull.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to any potential bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

STI Force Vector Direction; four moving bullishly. Irrelevant at this point.

STI Force Vector Position; nine populating bullish domains; nine greater than Pressure; mild bullish support.

Vector Pressure Position; a majority of 30-non-contrarians in bullish domains; bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure remains near zero and has for several weeks.

Vector Pressure Trend; 13-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support. Not yet threatening. The bearish threat will occur if pressure falls into bearish domains.

Short-term Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 5.7% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 36.1%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 18.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 24.1%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

 

As stated early last week, this remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain bullish. This remains in effect regardless of yesterday’s bearish aggression. This ETF recoiled with solid bullish behavior today.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 41.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.8%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $101.72 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 2.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 18.2%.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated for the last year-plus months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant models on Apr 27, 2010. It is down 0.4% since those buy signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 18.6% since then.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 66.2% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.00 and still falling.

 

Major ETF Events

Apr 29, 2010-Thu-Today’s bullish behavior lacked breadth. Commodities did not participate, which suggest a continuation of the bearish threat to bullish bias. As long as prices flutter around NTI bullish blue curve, such threats remains as just that; threats without any bite.

Apr 28, 2010-Wed-Several ETF’s regained blue bull status today. As you can see, prices are vacillating around the bullish elements. Thus, the bearish threats are not viewed as serious at this time. Fundamentally, there is justification for a bearish prognosis, but until technical support demonstrates that prognosis, holding remains justified.

Apr 27, 2010-Tue-Bearish aggression on high volume is threatening to bullish bias.

Apr 26, 2010-Mon-None

Apr 23, 2010-Fri-ETF#03-Energy was aggressively bullish today. This was technically expected early this past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian demand, and excessive government spending should add inflationary fuel, which is bullish for the energy related sector.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 29, 2010-Bearis threats remain, but for the most part, they are just threats. Apr 28, 2010-Wed-Wait for sell signals, regardless of how gloomy fundamentals are. Apr 27, 2010-Tue-The Near-term Indicant is readying sell signals. However, the Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until prices interact with bearish yellow. Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Holding remains safe; bullish bias prevails. Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Same as yesterday. This segment of the NTI Blue Bull is the strongest segment since the bear originated in March 2009.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

04/29/10

 

 

Apr 28, 2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 19 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success.  Some prices are interacting with NTI Green curve and thus threatening to hold signals. The bear is being encouraged with this interaction.

 

However, most ETF’s and major indices are fluttering around NTI Bullish Blue. Since most of the fluttering is centered around the bullish element, bearish threats are not taken seriously in spite of the souring economic fundamentals from abroad. Fluttering around the NTI Bearish Green curve is where bear attacks should be taken seriously and there are only a few with this configuration.

 

A few NTI bullish blues collapsed the past few days. Since March 2009, this led to bearish spurts followed by stronger bullish responses. As long as Pressure remains in bullish domains, the bull will remain dominant.

 

QTI Red Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential. Some ETF’s lost Red Bull status on yesterday’s bearish aggression. However, prices remain well above the Quick-term Bearish yellow curve. QTI sell/bear signals will not occur until prices interact with QTI Yellow. Patience here is important as most of the hold signals are over a year old and any selling will result in nice profits. Selling before price interaction with yellow will put you into a Near-term mode, which can invite more nervousness.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bull and no new bears.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up 6.6% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 47.1%.  The lone bear is up 1.6% since the NTI Bear signal 12.7-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up by an average of 29.3%, annualizing at 36.4%, since their bull signals an average of 41.8-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for the Dow Jones Utilities. It is up 5.1% since its bear signal 11.3-weeks ago.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

 

The Quick-term Indicant remains supportive of the QTI Bull.

     

      Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Four non-contrarians; lost eight Blue Bulls on Apr 27 bearish aggression.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on Mar 4, 2010.

     

The Near-term attributes remain in favor of the bull.

 

      Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

      STI-Force Vector Domain Position; Eight non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.

      STI-Force Vector Position Relative to Vector Pressure; Two non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors are not bullishly aggressive.

      STI-Force Vector Direction; Only one non-contrarian moving north; no bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Six non-contrarians are moving bullishly; neutral support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Position; Eight non-contrarians are in bullish domains; mild bullish support.

     

      Short-term Market Summary

      Short-term attributes continue configuring in support of the bull in spite of the bear attack on Apr 27. This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.

 

-Tangential Protection The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100, S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.

 

-Political Climate – Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear. The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and reductions.  

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection We will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link.

 

The Quick-term bearish yellow curve stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little challenge this theme.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010). Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

Volume indicators are nudging higher. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little justification for not holding and participating in this rally. The Near-term Indicant has oiled the sell trigger and getting ready. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

 

Apr 28, 2010-Wed-Aggressive volume again on flat behavior is not inviting a bullish response to yesterday’s bear attack.

 

Apr 27, 2010-Tue-Aggressive volume on aggressive bearishness for the second time within two weeks is threatening to bullish bias and significantly so.

 

Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Volume was relatively mild and thus no evidence of a shift from bullish bias.

 

Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Volume on both indices was within recent norms. That coupled with meandering behavior continues suggesting prevailing bullish bias. NYSE remaining at supply/demand equilibrium. The next few weeks will be interesting from a volume perspective.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 8.6%, annualizing at 41.7%, since their buy signals an average of 10.8-weeks ago.

 

The NTI is avoiding one ETF. It is down by 15.8% since its sell signal 8.1-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 35.7% since their buy signals an average of 45.5-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 40.8%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding one ETF. It is down 65.0% since its sell signal 56.9-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bull Count; 11-majority bullish support. Several regained today.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 25-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.

NTI Green Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.

NTI Green Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 23-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term Bull.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to any potential bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

STI Force Vector Direction: Eight-moving bullishly. Irrelevant at this point.

STI Force Vector Position; 12-populating bullish domains; 11-greater than Pressure; bullish support.

Vector Pressure Position; a majority of 30-non-contrarians in bullish domains; bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near zero.

Vector Pressure Trend; 13-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support. Not yet threatening. The bearish threat will occur if pressure falls into bearish domains.

Short-term Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 5.6% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 36.0%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 17.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 24.0%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

 

As stated early last week, this remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain bullish. This remains in effect regardless of yesterday’s bearish aggression. This ETF recoiled with solid bullish behavior today.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 41.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.9%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $101.62 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 3.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 18.7%.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated for the last year-plus months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant models on Apr 27, 2010. It is down 0.9% since those buy signals. Pressure crossed into bullish domains, which could excite the bear. This could be a quick trade.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 15.8% since then.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 65.0% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.07 and still falling.

 

Major ETF Events

Apr 28, 2010-Wed-Several ETF’s regained blue bull status today. As you can see, prices are vacillating around the bullish elements. Thus, the bearish threats are not viewed as serious at this time. Fundamentally, there is justification for a bearish prognosis, but until technical support demonstrates that prognosis, holding remains justified.

Apr 27, 2010-Tue-Bearish aggression on high volume is threatening to bullish bias.

Apr 26, 2010-Mon-None

Apr 23, 2010-Fri-ETF#03-Energy was aggressively bullish today. This was technically expected early this past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian demand, and excessive government spending should add inflationary fuel, which is bullish for the energy related sector.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 28, 2010-Wed-Wait for sell signals, regardless of how gloomy fundamentals are. Apr 27, 2010-Tue-The Near-term Indicant is readying sell signals. However, the Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until prices interact with bearish yellow. Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Holding remains safe; bullish bias prevails. Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Same as yesterday. This segment of the NTI Blue Bull is the strongest segment since the bear originated in March 2009.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

04/28/10

 

 

Apr 27, 2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 18 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success.  Some prices are interacting with NTI Green curve and thus threatening to hold signals. The bear is being encouraged with this interaction.

 

QTI Red Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential. Some ETF’s lost Red Bull status on today’s bearish aggression. However, prices remain well above the Quick-term bearish yellow curve. QTI sell/bear signals will not occur until prices interact with QTI Yellow.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled one new bull and no new bears.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up 7.6% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 50.5%.  The lone bear is down 0.5% since the NTI Bear signal 12.6-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled one new bull and no new bears.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by an average of 32.5%, annualizing at 36.9%, since their bull signals an average of 45.9-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for the Dow Jones Utilities. It is up 4.0% since its bear signal 11.1-weeks ago.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

 

The Quick-term Indicant remains supportive of the QTI Bull.

     

      Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Four non-contrarians; bullish support attacked today; lost eight Blue Bulls.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support. Today’s attack by the bear has not yet defeated this attribute.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on Mar 4, 2010.

     

The Near-term attributes remain in favor of the bull.

 

      Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

      STI-Force Vector Domain Position; Nine non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.

      STI-Force Vector Position Relative to Vector Pressure; Four non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors are not bullishly aggressive.

      STI-Force Vector Direction; Only one non-contrarian moving north; no bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Nine non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Position; Ten non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support.

     

      Short-term Market Summary

      Short-term attributes continue configuring in support of the bull in spite of the bear attack today. This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.

 

-Tangential Protection The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100, S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.

 

-Political Climate – Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear. The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and reductions.  

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection We will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link.

 

The Quick-term bearish yellow curve stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little challenge this theme.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010). Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

Volume indicators are nudging higher. Recent meandering behavior is not likely to continue. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little justification for not holding and participating in this rally. The Near-term Indicant has oiled the sell trigger and getting ready. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

 

Apr 27, 2010-Tue-Aggressive volume on aggressive bearishness for the second time within two weeks is threatening to bullish bias and significantly so.

 

Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Volume was relatively mild and thus no evidence of a shift from bullish bias.

 

Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Volume on both indices was within recent norms. That coupled with meandering behavior continues suggesting prevailing bullish bias. NYSE remaining at supply/demand equilibrium. The next few weeks will be interesting from a volume perspective.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 8.0%, annualizing at 38.4%, since their buy signals an average of 10.8-weeks ago.

 

The NTI is avoiding one ETF. It is down by 15.7% since its sell signal 8.0-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 36.3% since their buy signals an average of 47.0-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 40.2%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding one ETF. It is down 65.0% since its sell signal 56.7-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bull Count; 10-limited bullish support; no longer majority support.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 25-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.

NTI Green Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.

NTI Green Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 23-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term Bull.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to any potential bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

STI Force Vector Direction: Eleven-moving bullishly.

STI Force Vector Position; 13-populating bullish domains; 13-greater than Pressure; bullish support.

Vector Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains; bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near zero.

Vector Pressure Trend; 14-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support. Not yet threatening.

Short-term Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 4.5% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 29.7%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 16.7% since that buy signal, annualizing at 22.5%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

 

As stated early last week, this remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain bullish. This remains in effect regardless of today’s bearish aggression.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 42.1% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 30.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $101.53 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 3.3% since that buy signal, annualizing at 20.9%.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant models today.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 15.7% since then.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 65.0% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.14 and still falling.

 

Major ETF Events

Apr 27, 2010-Tue-Bearish aggression on high volume is threatening to bullish bias.

Apr 26, 2010-Mon-None

Apr 23, 2010-Fri-ETF#03-Energy was aggressively bullish today. This was technically expected early this past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian demand, and excessive government spending should add inflationary fuel, which is bullish for the energy related sector.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 27, 2010-Tue-The Near-term Indicant is readying sell signals. However, the Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until prices interact with bearish yellow. Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Holding remains safe; bullish bias prevails. Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Same as yesterday. This segment of the NTI Blue Bull is the strongest segment since the bear originated in March 2009.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

04/27/10

 

 

Apr 26, 2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 17 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential. Currently all three of these attributes remain supportive of bullish ambition.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up 10.1% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 68.2%.  There are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 2.5% since their respective bear signals an average of 10.1-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by an average of 35.6%, annualizing at 40.5%, since their bull signals an average of 45.7-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 0.7% since their respective bear signals an average of 9.4-weeks ago.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

 

The Quick-term Indicant remains supportive of the QTI Bull.

     

      Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on Mar 4, 2010.

     

The Near-term attributes remain in favor of the bull.

 

      Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

      STI-Force Vector Domain Position; Eleven non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.

      STI-Force Vector Position Relative to Vector Pressure; Ten non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors are not bullishly aggressive.

      STI-Force Vector Direction; All eleven non-contrarian moving north; solid bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Nine non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Position; Ten non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support.

     

      Short-term Market Summary

      Short-term attributes continue configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.

 

-Tangential Protection The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100, S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.

 

-Political Climate – Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear. The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and reductions.  

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection We will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link.

 

The Quick-term bearish yellow curve stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little challenge this theme.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010). Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

Volume indicators are nudging higher. Recent meandering behavior is not likely to continue. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little justification for not holding and participating in this rally. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

 

Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Volume was relatively mild and thus no evidence of a shift from bullish bias.

 

Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Volume on both indices was within recent norms. That coupled with meandering behavior continues suggesting prevailing bullish bias. NYSE remaining at supply/demand equilibrium. The next few weeks will be interesting from a volume perspective.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 10.7%, annualizing at 52.0%, since their buy signals an average of 10.7-weeks ago.

 

The NTI is avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 9.9% since their sell signals an average of 7.9-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 39.7% since their buy signals an average of 46.8-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 44.1%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of 33.7% since their sell signals an average of 32.1-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bull Count; 23-bullish support; majority support for Near-term Bull cycle.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 29-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.

NTI Green Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.

NTI Green Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 28-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term Bull.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to any potential bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29              -sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

STI Force Vector Direction: 13-moving bullishly.

STI Force Vector Position; 19-populating bullish domains; 19-greater than Pressure; bullish support.

Vector Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains; bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near zero.

Vector Pressure Trend; 14-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support. Not yet threatening.

Short-term Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 7.8% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 52.3%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 20.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 27.6%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

 

As stated early last week, this remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain bullish.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 39.8% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 28.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $101.33 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 1.6% since that buy signal, annualizing at 10.2%.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  is down 0.7% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 1.0% since that sell signal.

 

Pressure remains in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear. Force appears ready to turn back to the south, offering the TLT bull little inspiration. Force has been wavering the past few days, suggesting indecisiveness in directional intensity. Pressure dictates and remains bearish.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 19.1% since then.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 66.4% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.21 and still falling.

 

Major ETF Events

Apr 26, 2010-Mon-None

Apr 23, 2010-Fri-ETF#03-Energy was aggressively bullish today. This was technically expected early this past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian demand, and excessive government spending should add inflationary fuel, which is bullish for the energy related sector.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 26, 2010-Mon-Holding remains safe; bullish bias prevails. Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Same as yesterday. This segment of the NTI Blue Bull is the strongest segment since the bear originated in March 2009.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

04/26/10

 

 

Apr 23, 2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 16 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential. Currently all three attributes remain supportive of bullish ambition.

 

ETF#10-IBB NTI Blue Curve collapsed on April 23, 2010, but configured as a profit-taking dive at this time. It is the first non-contrarian to indicate potential trouble for the bull. Its price is below Green, but Pressure remains in bullish domains. Therefore, there is no sell signal.

 

ETF#03-XLE-Energy was explosively bullish today. This was technically expected earlier this past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian demand, excessive government spending, and anti-energy political pressure should add inflationary pressures, which is bullish for the energy sector. Interestingly, ETF#11-GLD-Gold was nearly as bullish today.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up 10.4% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 74.3%.  There are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 4.6% since their respective bear signals an average of 9.6-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by an average of 35.9%, annualizing at 41.3%, since their bull signals an average of 45.3-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 2.8% since their respective bear signals an average of 8.9-weeks ago.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; Eleven non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

 

The Quick-term Indicant remains supportive of the QTI Bull.

     

      Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on Mar 4, 2010.

     

The Near-term attributes remain in favor of the bull.

 

      Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

      STI-Force Vector Domain Position; Eleven non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.

      STI-Force Vector Position Relative to Vector Pressure; Ten non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors are not bullishly aggressive.

      STI-Force Vector Direction; Eight non-contrarian moving north; bullish support improved.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Seven non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Position; All non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support.

     

      Short-term Market Summary

      Short-term attributes continue configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.

 

-Tangential Protection The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100, S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.

 

-Political Climate – Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear. The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and reductions.  

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection We will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link.

 

The Quick-term bearish yellow curve stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little challenge this theme.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010). Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

Volume indicators are now leveling at relatively high levels. Recent meandering behavior is not likely to continue. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little justification for not holding and participating in this rally. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

 

Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Volume on both indices was within recent norms. That coupled with meandering behavior continues suggesting prevailing bullish bias. NYSE remaining at supply/demand equilibrium. The next few weeks will be interesting from a volume perspective.

 

Apr 22, 2010-Thu-Big board volume was relatively aggressive. Interestingly, its Indicant Volume Indicator is leveling out at supply/demand equilibrium. If it falls, that will suggest negative demand or positive supply (E.g., the supply of big board stocks exceeds demand). That is not bullish. It also is a configuration that can dampen bearish enthusiasm. The NASDAQ volume was mildly aggressive today. It continues configuring with negative supply or positive demand. In other words, the demand for NASDAQ stocks (mostly Apple) exceeds the supply available for sale. That is a bullish configuration. However, it is flattening out, suggesting reducing enthusiasm

 

Apr 21, 2010-Wed-Big board volume continues settling, but at a relatively high level. NASDAQ volume remains relatively flat. This parallels meandering behavior the past two days, suggesting short-term trader confusion. Such confusion does not change prevailing bullish bias.

 

Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Volume settled down today on flat stock market behavior, offering no evidence of a shift away from bullish bias. (Last Friday’s high volume possibly relates to Apple’s favorable profit report to expectations. Do not be surprised at bullish behavior tomorrow with follow-on).

 

Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Although somewhat muted relative to last Friday, volume was again aggressive, but on flat stock market behavior, as opposed to bearish aggression last Friday. The high volume remains as a concern, but bullish bias has not yet been disrupted.

 

Apr 16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. However, NTI Blue Bulls and QTI Red Bulls remain unthreatened. Such a configuration without the protection of these Short-term bulls would be discerning. That is not the case right now.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 10.8%, annualizing at 54.8%, since their buy signals an average of 10.3-weeks ago.

 

The NTI is avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 10.1% since their sell signals an average of 7.4-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 39.9% since their buy signals an average of 46.4-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 44.7%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of 33.8% since their sell signals an average of 31.6-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bull Count; 23-bullish support; majority support for Near-term Bull cycle.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 29-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.

NTI Green Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.

NTI Green Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 28-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term Bull.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to any potential bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

STI Force Vector Direction: nine-moving bullishly; the expected bullish behavior occurred the last three days after the last bearish cycle.

STI Force Vector Position; 17-populating bullish domains; 17-greater than Pressure; bullish support.

Vector Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains; bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near zero.

Vector Pressure Trend; 13-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support. Not yet threatening.

Short-term Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 8.2% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 57.9%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 20.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.4%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

 

As stated the past few days, this remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain bullish.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 40.3% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $101.33 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 2.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 13.5%.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  is down 0.8% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 1.1% since that sell signal.

 

Pressure remains in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear. Force appears ready to turn back to the south, offering the TLT bull little inspiration. Force has been wavering the past few days, suggesting indecisiveness in directional intensity. Pressure dictates and remains bearish.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 19.4% since then.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 66.5% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.28 and still falling.

 

Major ETF Events

Apr 23, 2010-Fri-ETF#03-Energy was aggressively bullish today. This was technically expected early this past week. Fundamentally, Iranian militancy, Asian demand, and excessive government spending should add inflationary fuel, which is bullish for the energy related sector.

Apr 22, 2010-Thu-Big Board volume approached positive demand, but appears to find that uncomfortable. In essence this timidity, at least for the moment, suggests supply of stocks for sale exceed the demand. Although not necessarily bearish, this attribute is not fomenting additional bullish energy.

Apr 21, 2010-Wed-Flat market behavior the day after Apple’s extraordinarily favorable earnings report suggests the market was already priced at the magnitude of that favorability. The stock market is not focusing on the now, which is more common than not.

Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Several attributes are at minor inflections suggesting impending dynamic behavior. Since bias remains in favor of the bull, do not be surprised at more bullishness. Fundamentally, Apple earnings support this, in addition to other value adding organizations.

Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Several attributes are losing bullish steam, but not yet threatening to bullish bias. Iceland’s Volcano is contributing to this.

Apr 16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. The NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull population remain as a majority and offers resistance to follow-on bearish aggression. Until they expired, the Short-term Bull remains in tact.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 23, 2010-Fri-Same as yesterday. This segment of the NTI Blue Bull is the strongest segment since the bear originated in March 2009. Apr 22, 2010-Thu-Longer-term holding remains safe. NTI Blue Bulls remain solid. Until they start collapsing, there are no substantive bearish concerns. ETF#10-IBB NTI Blue Curve collapsed today, but configured as a profit-taking dive at this time. Apr 21, 2010-Wed-Apple’s earnings were already priced into the market. However, configurations remain positioned for bullish potential. If this potential does not manifest, configurations are not supportive of bearish sustainability. Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Apple earnings offer rebuttal to yesterday’s “fundamental” bearish comment. Capitalists continue to impress in spite of bearish political noise. Do not be surprised a bullish aggression the next few days. Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Fundamentals are souring. Goldman is under attack by politicians. Rest assured any political action will be the antithesis of optimum. Even though fundamental threats are increasing, bullish bias remains. Apr 16, 2010-Fri-To protect recent gains on recent buys, be prepared to sell if bearish behavior continues with increasing volume. Gains from QTI buy signals are well protected. If you are enjoying those gains wait for contact with bearish yellow. Friday’s bearish aggression appears technical at this point.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

04/23/10

 

 

Apr 22, 2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 15 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential. Currently all three attributes remain supportive of bullish ambition.

 

ETF#10-IBB NTI Blue Curve collapsed today, but configured as a profit-taking dive at this time. It is the first non-contrarian to indicate potential trouble for the bull. Its price is below Green, but Pressure remains in bullish domains. Therefore, there is no sell signal.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up 9.6% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 69.9%.  There are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 5.8% since their respective bear signals an average of 9.5-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by an average of 34.9%, annualizing at 40.2%, since their bull signals an average of 45.1-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 4.1% since their respective bear signals an average of 8.8-weeks ago.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

 

The Quick-term Indicant remains supportive of the QTI Bull.

     

      Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten non-contrarians and arguing with them is not profitable.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on Mar 4, 2010.

     

The Near-term attributes remain in favor of the bull.

 

      Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

      STI-Force Vector Domain Position; Ten non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.

      STI-Force Vector Position Relative to Vector Pressure; Four non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors are not bullishly aggressive.

      STI-Force Vector Direction; Only one non-contrarian moving north; bullish support evaporating.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Eight non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Position; All non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support.

     

      Short-term Market Summary

      Short-term attributes continue configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.

 

-Tangential Protection The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100, S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.

 

-Political Climate – Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear. The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and reductions.  

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection We will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link.

 

The Quick-term bearish yellow curve stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little challenge this theme.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010). Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

Volume indicators are now leveling at relatively high levels. Recent meandering behavior is not likely to continue. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little justification for not holding and participating in this rally. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

 

Apr 22, 2010-Thu-Big board volume was relatively aggressive. Interestingly, its Indicant Volume Indicator is leveling out at supply/demand equilibrium. If it falls, that will suggest negative demand or positive supply (E.g., the supply of big board stocks exceeds demand). That is not bullish. It also is a configuration that can dampen bearish enthusiasm. The NASDAQ volume was mildly aggressive today. It continues configuring with negative supply or positive demand. In other words, the demand for NASDAQ stocks (mostly Apple) exceeds the supply available for sale. That is a bullish configuration. However, it is flattening out, suggesting reducing enthusiasm

 

Apr 21, 2010-Wed-Big board volume continues settling, but at a relatively high level. NASDAQ volume remains relatively flat. This parallels meandering behavior the past two days, suggesting short-term trader confusion. Such confusion does not change prevailing bullish bias.

 

Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Volume settled down today on flat stock market behavior, offering no evidence of a shift away from bullish bias. (Last Friday’s high volume possibly relates to Apple’s favorable profit report to expectations. Do not be surprised at bullish behavior tomorrow with follow-on).

 

Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Although somewhat muted relative to last Friday, volume was again aggressive, but on flat stock market behavior, as opposed to bearish aggression last Friday. The high volume remains as a concern, but bullish bias has not yet been disrupted.

 

Apr 16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. However, NTI Blue Bulls and QTI Red Bulls remain unthreatened. Such a configuration without the protection of these Short-term bulls would be discerning. That is not the case right now.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 10.0%, annualizing at 51.6%, since their buy signals an average of 10.1-weeks ago.

 

The NTI is avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 9.6% since their sell signals an average of 7.3-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 38.9% since their buy signals an average of 46.2-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 43.7%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of 33.5% since their sell signals an average of 31.5-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bull Count; 21-bullish support; several lost on last Friday’s bearish aggression, but four regained this week. Majority still supportive of bull.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 29-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.

NTI Green Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.

NTI Green Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 26-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term Bull.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to any potential bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

STI Force Vector Direction: four-moving bullishly; 18-shifted south the last five days. The cycle is mature; Yesterday’s suggestion at an imminent bullish response occurred today, but rather late in the day. Today’s swing was perfect; staunch stock market bearishness early in the morning and solid bullishness in the afternoon.

STI Force Vector Position; 11-populating bullish domains; 11-greater than Pressure; bullish support.

Vector Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains; bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near zero.

Vector Pressure Trend; 14-moving north; no longer with majority bullish support. Not yet threatening.

Short-term Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 5.7% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 40.8%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 17.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 24.6%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

 

This remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain bullish.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 38.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 28.0%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $101.24 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 0.7% since that buy signal, annualizing at 5.2%.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  is down 0.5% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 0.8% since that sell signal.

 

Pressure remains in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear. Force appears ready to turn back to the south, offering the TLT bull little inspiration. Force has been wavering the past few days, suggesting indecisiveness in directional intensity. Pressure dictates and remains bearish.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 18.8% since then.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 66.3% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.35 and still falling.

 

Major ETF Events

Apr 22, 2010-Thu-Big Board volume approached positive demand, but appears to find that uncomfortable. In essence this timidity, at least for the moment, suggests supply of stocks for sale exceed the demand. Although not necessarily bearish, this attribute is not fomenting additional bullish energy.

Apr 21, 2010-Wed-Flat market behavior the day after Apple’s extraordinarily favorable earnings report suggests the market was already priced at the magnitude of that favorability. The stock market is not focusing on the now, which is more common than not.

Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Several attributes are at minor inflections suggesting impending dynamic behavior. Since bias remains in favor of the bull, do not be surprised at more bullishness. Fundamentally, Apple earnings support this, in addition to other value adding organizations.

Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Several attributes are losing bullish steam, but not yet threatening to bullish bias. Iceland’s Volcano is contributing to this.

Apr 16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. The NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull population remain as a majority and offers resistance to follow-on bearish aggression. Until they expired, the Short-term Bull remains in tact.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 22, 2010-Thu-Longer-term holding remains safe. NTI Blue Bulls remain solid. Until they start collapsing, there are no substantive bearish concerns. ETF#10-IBB NTI Blue Curve collapsed today, but configured as a profit-taking dive at this time. Apr 21, 2010-Wed-Apple’s earnings were already priced into the market. However, configurations remain positioned for bullish potential. If this potential does not manifest, configurations are not supportive of bearish sustainability. Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Apple earnings offer rebuttal to yesterday’s “fundamental” bearish comment. Capitalists continue to impress in spite of bearish political noise. Do not be surprised a bullish aggression the next few days. Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Fundamentals are souring. Goldman is under attack by politicians. Rest assured any political action will be the antithesis of optimum. Even though fundamental threats are increasing, bullish bias remains. Apr 16, 2010-Fri-To protect recent gains on recent buys, be prepared to sell if bearish behavior continues with increasing volume. Gains from QTI buy signals are well protected. If you are enjoying those gains wait for contact with bearish yellow. Friday’s bearish aggression appears technical at this point.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

04/22/10

 

 

Apr 21, 2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 14 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential. Currently all three attributes remain supportive of bullish ambition.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up 9.1% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 67.4%.  There are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 6.0% since their respective bear signals an average of 9.4-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by an average of 34.2%, annualizing at 39.6%, since their bull signals an average of 45.0-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 4.3% since their respective bear signals an average of 8.6-weeks ago.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

 

The Quick-term Indicant remains supportive of the QTI Bull.

     

      Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten non-contrarians and arguing with them is not profitable.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on Mar 4, 2010.

     

The Near-term attributes remain in favor of the bull.

 

      Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

      STI-Force Vector Domain Position; Eleven non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.

      STI-Force Vector Position Relative to Vector Pressure; Seven non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors are not bullishly aggressive.

      STI-Force Vector Direction; Only one non-contrarian moving north; bullish support evaporating.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Nine non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Position; All non-contrarians are in bullish domains; bullish support.

     

      Short-term Market Summary

      Short-term attributes continue configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.

 

-Tangential Protection The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100, S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.

 

-Political Climate – Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear. The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and reductions.  

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection We will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link.

 

The Quick-term bearish yellow curve stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little challenge this theme.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010). Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

Volume indicators are shifting robustly. Meandering behavior does not typically follow volume shifts. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little justification for not holding and participating in this rally. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

 

Apr 21, 2010-Wed-Big board volume continues settling, but at a relatively high level. NASDAQ volume remains relatively flat. This parallels meandering behavior the past two days, suggesting short-term trader confusion. Such confusion does not change prevailing bullish bias.

 

Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Volume settled down today on flat stock market behavior, offering no evidence of a shift away from bullish bias. (Last Friday’s high volume possibly relates to Apple’s favorable profit report to expectations. Do not be surprised at bullish behavior tomorrow with follow-on).

 

Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Although somewhat muted relative to last Friday, volume was again aggressive, but on flat stock market behavior, as opposed to bearish aggression last Friday. The high volume remains as a concern, but bullish bias has not yet been disrupted.

 

Apr 16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. However, NTI Blue Bulls and QTI Red Bulls remain unthreatened. Such a configuration without the protection of these Short-term bulls would be discerning. That is not the case right now.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 9.5%, annualizing at 49.7%, since their buy signals an average of 9.0-weeks ago.

 

The NTI is avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 9.0% since their sell signals an average of 7.1-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 38.2% since their buy signals an average of 46.1-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 43.1%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of 33.2% since their sell signals an average of 31.4-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bull Count; 21-bullish support; several lost on last Friday’s bearish aggression, but four regained this week. Majority still supportive of bull.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 27-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.

NTI Green Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.

NTI Green Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 27-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term Bull.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to any potential bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

STI Force Vector Direction: five-moving bullishly; 17-shifted south the last four days. The cycle is mature, suggesting bullish response is imminent. No bullish response will suggest increased weakness in the stock market bull.

STI Force Vector Position; 11-populating bullish domains; 11-greater than Pressure; bullish support.

Vector Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains; bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near zero.

Vector Pressure Trend; 19-moving north; bullish support, but losing a little steam.

Short-term Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 5.4% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 39.7%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 17.6% since that buy signal, annualizing at 24.3%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

 

This remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain bullish.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 39.3% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.5%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $101.15 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 1.2% since that buy signal, annualizing at 8.4%.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  is down 0.2% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 0.5% since that sell signal.

 

Pressure remains in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear. Force appears ready to turn back to the south, offering the TLT bull little inspiration.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 17.8% since then.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 65.8% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.42 and still falling.

 

Major ETF Events

Apr 21, 2010-Wed-Flat market behavior the day after Apple’s extraordinarily favorable earnings report suggests the market was already priced at the magnitude of that favorability. The stock market is not focusing on the now, which is more common than not.

Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Several attributes are at minor inflections suggesting impending dynamic behavior. Since bias remains in favor of the bull, do not be surprised at more bullishness. Fundamentally, Apple earnings support this, in addition to other value adding organizations.

Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Several attributes are losing bullish steam, but not yet threatening to bullish bias. Iceland’s Volcano is contributing to this.

Apr 16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. The NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull population remain as a majority and offers resistance to follow-on bearish aggression. Until they expired, the Short-term Bull remains in tact.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 21, 2010-Wed-Apple’s earnings were already priced into the market. However, configurations remain positioned for bullish potential. If this potential does not manifest, configurations are not supportive of bearish sustainability. Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Apple earnings offer rebuttal to yesterday’s “fundamental” bearish comment. Capitalists continue to impress in spite of bearish political noise. Do not be surprised a bullish aggression the next few days. Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Fundamentals are souring. Goldman is under attack by politicians. Rest assured any political action will be the antithesis of optimum. Even though fundamental threats are increasing, bullish bias remains. Apr 16, 2010-Fri-To protect recent gains on recent buys, be prepared to sell if bearish behavior continues with increasing volume. Gains from QTI buy signals are well protected. If you are enjoying those gains wait for contact with bearish yellow. Friday’s bearish aggression appears technical at this point.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

04/21/10

 

 

Apr 20, 2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 13 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential.

 

Last Friday’s bearish aggression on very aggressive volume is ominous, but not yet threatening to Short-term attributes. It more than raised an eyebrow, though. Yesterday’s volume was also aggressive, but flat stock market behavior offered no obviations of directional intensity.

 

Apple’s favorable earnings suggests last Friday’s volume surge could have been in anticipation thereof. Insider leaks probably got to the “big fund” and institutions. At any rate, this adds support to prevailing short-term bullish bias.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up 8.9% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 67.3%.  There are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 6.7% since their respective bear signals an average of 9.2-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by an average of 34.0%, annualizing at 39.4%, since their bull signals an average of 44.9-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 4.9% since their respective bear signals an average of 8.5-weeks ago.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

 

The Quick-term Indicant remains supportive of the QTI Bull.

     

      Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten non-contrarians and arguing with them is not profitable.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on Mar 4, 2010.

     

The Near-term attributes remain in favor of the bull.

 

      Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

      STI-Force Vector Domain Position; Ten non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.

      STI-Force Vector Position Relative to Vector Pressure; Eleven non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors are not bullishly aggressive.

      STI-Force Vector Direction; Only one moving north; bullish support evaporating.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Ten non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Position; All non-contrarians are in bullish domains.

     

      Short-term Market Summary

      Short-term attributes continue configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.

 

-Tangential Protection The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100, S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.

 

-Political Climate – Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear. The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and reductions.  

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection We will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link.

 

The Quick-term bearish yellow curve stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little challenge this theme.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010). Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

Volume indicators are shifting robustly. Meandering behavior does not typically follow volume shifts. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little justification for not holding and participating in this rally. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

 

Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Volume settled down today on flat stock market behavior, offering no evidence of a shift away from bullish bias. (Last Friday’s high volume possibly relates to Apple’s favorable profit report to expectations. Do not be surprised at bullish behavior tomorrow with follow-on).

 

Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Although somewhat muted relative to last Friday, volume was again aggressive, but on flat stock market behavior, as opposed to bearish aggression last Friday. The high volume remains as a concern, but bullish bias has not yet been disrupted.

 

Apr 16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. However, NTI Blue Bulls and QTI Red Bulls remain unthreatened. Such a configuration without the protection of these Short-term bulls would be discerning. That is not the case right now.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 9.4%, annualizing at 49.7%, since their buy signals an average of 9.8-weeks ago.

 

The NTI is avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 8.9% since their sell signals an average of 7.0-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 38.1% since their buy signals an average of 46.0-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 43.1%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of 33.4% since their sell signals an average of 31.2-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bull Count; 19-bullish support; several lost on last Friday’s bearish aggression, but two regained today. Majority still supportive of bull.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 29-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.

NTI Green Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.

NTI Green Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 28-non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term Bull.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to any potential bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

STI Force Vector Direction: five-moving bullishly; 15-shifted south the last three days. The cycle is mature, suggesting bullish response is imminent.

STI Force Vector Position; 16-populating bullish domains; 16-greater than Pressure; bullish support.

Vector Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains; bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near zero.

Vector Pressure Trend; 20-moving north; bullish support, but losing a little steam.

Short-term Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull. Recent bullish behavior has elevated Pressure, which is bullish.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 5.5% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 41.3%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 17.8% since that buy signal, annualizing at 24.6%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

 

This remains as a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull and is configuring for more bullish expressions. As long as Iran continues threatening, oil prices and related energy companies should remain bullish.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 37.8% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 27.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $101.00 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 0.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 2.9%.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  is down 1.0% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 1.3% since that sell signal.

 

Pressure remains in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear. Force appears ready to turn back to the south, offering the TLT bull little inspiration.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 16.9% since then.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 65.5% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.49 and still falling.

 

Major ETF Events

Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Several attributes are at minor inflections suggesting impending dynamic behavior. Since bias remains in favor of the bull, do not be surprised at more bullishness. Fundamentally, Apple earnings support this, in addition to other value adding organizations.

Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Several attributes are losing bullish steam, but not yet threatening to bullish bias. Iceland’s Volcano is contributing to this.

Apr 16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. The NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull population remain as a majority and offers resistance to follow-on bearish aggression. Until they expired, the Short-term Bull remains in tact.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 20, 2010-Tue-Apple earnings offer rebuttal to yesterday’s “fundamental” bearish comment. Capitalists continue to impress in spite of bearish political noise. Do not be surprised a bullish aggression the next few days. Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Fundamentals are souring. Goldman is under attack by politicians. Rest assured any political action will be the antithesis of optimum. Even though fundamental threats are increasing, bullish bias remains. Apr 16, 2010-Fri-To protect recent gains on recent buys, be prepared to sell if bearish behavior continues with increasing volume. Gains from QTI buy signals are well protected. If you are enjoying those gains wait for contact with bearish yellow. Friday’s bearish aggression appears technical at this point.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

04/20/10

 

 

Apr 19, 2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 12 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential.

 

Last Friday’s bearish aggression on very aggressive volume is ominous, but not yet threatening to Short-term attributes. It more than raised an eyebrow, though. Today’s volume was also aggressive, but flat stock market behavior offered no obviations of directional intensity.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up 8.0% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 62.0%.  There are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 3.8% since their respective bear signals an average of 9.1-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by an average of 32.9%, annualizing at 38.2%, since their bull signals an average of 44.7-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 2.0% since their respective bear signals an average of 8.4-weeks ago.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

 

The Quick-term Indicant remains supportive of the QTI Bull.

     

      Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten non-contrarians and arguing with them is not profitable.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on Mar 4, 2010.

     

The Near-term attributes remain in favor of the bull.

 

      Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

      STI-Force Vector Domain Position; Ten non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.

      STI-Force Vector Position Relative to Vector Pressure; Eleven non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors are not bullishly aggressive.

      STI-Force Vector Direction; Two moving north; bullish support evaporating.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Ten non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Position; All non-contrarians are in bullish domains.

     

      Short-term Market Summary

      Short-term attributes continue configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.

 

-Tangential Protection The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100, S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.

 

-Political Climate – Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear. The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and reductions.  

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection We will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link.

 

The Quick-term bearish yellow curve stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little challenge this theme.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010). Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

Volume indicators are shifting robustly. Meandering behavior does not usually follow volume shifts. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little justification for not holding and participating in this rally. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

 

Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Although somewhat muted relative to last Friday, volume was again aggressive, but on flat stock market behavior, as opposed to bearish aggression last Friday. The high volume remains as a concern, but bullish bias has not yet been disrupted.

 

Apr 16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. However, NTI Blue Bulls and QTI Red Bulls remain unthreatened. Such a configuration without the protection of these Short-term bulls would be discerning. That is not the case right now.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 8.4%, annualizing at 45.4%, since their buy signals an average of 9.7-weeks ago.

 

The NTI is avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 8.7% since their sell signals an average of 6.9-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 36.9% since their buy signals an average of 45.8-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 41.8%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of 33.4% since their sell signals an average of 31.1-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bull Count; 17-bullish support; several lost on last Friday’s bearish aggression and two more today, but still a majority, but barely.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 29-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.

NTI Green Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.

NTI Green Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 26-non-contrarian; bullish support.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term Bull.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to any potential bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

STI Force Vector Direction: six-moving bullishly; 14-shifted south the last two days.

STI Force Vector Position; 15-populating bullish domains; 15-greater than Pressure; bullish support losing steam.

Vector Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains; bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near zero.

Vector Pressure Trend; 21-moving north; bullish support; five shifted to the south the past two days, suggesting declining interest in bullish support.

Short-term Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull. Recent bullish behavior has elevated Pressure, which is bullish. Some were attacked by the bear today, but remains configured in support of the bull.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 3.5% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 26.7%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 15.5% since that buy signal, annualizing at 21.5%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

 

This is again a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 37.8% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 27.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $101.00 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 0.1% since that buy signal, annualizing at 0.9%.

 

Volcanoes, Iran’s nuclear bomb, and politicians worldwide suggest gold as an attractive investment. It rises in price during periods of fear. There is plenty to fear.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  is down 1.4% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 1.6% since that sell signal.

 

Force and Pressure remain in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 16.0% since then.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 65.1% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.56 and still falling.

 

Major ETF Events

Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Several attributes are losing bullish steam, but not yet threatening to bullish bias. Iceland’s Volcano is contributing to this.

Apr 16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. The NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull population remain as a majority and offers resistance to follow-on bearish aggression. Until they expired, the Short-term Bull remains in tact.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 19, 2010-Mon-Fundamentals are souring. Goldman is under attack by politicians. Rest assured any political action will be the antithesis of optimum. Even though fundamental threats are increasing, bullish bias remains. Apr 16, 2010-Fri-To protect recent gains on recent buys, be prepared to sell if bearish behavior continues with increasing volume. Gains from QTI buy signals are well protected. If you are enjoying those gains wait for contact with bearish yellow. Friday’s bearish aggression appears technical at this point.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

04/19/10

 

 

Apr 16, 2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 11 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential. So far, any bearish expressions should be considered as mere bearish spurts.

 

Friday’s bearish aggression on very aggressive volume is ominous, but not yet threatening to Short-term attributes. It more than raised an eyebrow, though.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up 7.9% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 65.6%.  There are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 1.1% since their respective bear signals an average of 8.6-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by an average of 32.8%, annualizing at 38.5%, since their bull signals an average of 44.3-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are up by an average of 0.5% since their respective bear signals an average of 7.9-weeks ago.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

 

The Quick-term Indicant remains supportive of the QTI Bull.

     

      Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten non-contrarians and arguing with them is not profitable.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on Mar 4, 2010.

     

The Near-term attributes remain in favor of the bull.

 

      Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

      STI-Force Vector Domain Position; Ten non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.

      STI-Force Vector Position Relative to Vector Pressure; Eleven non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors are not bullishly aggressive.

      STI-Force Vector Direction; Eight moving north; bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Ten non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Position; All non-contrarians are in bullish domains.

     

      Short-term Market Summary

      Short-term attributes continue configuring in support of the bull. This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.

 

-Tangential Protection The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100, S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.

 

-Political Climate – Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear. The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and reductions.  

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection We will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link.

 

The Quick-term bearish yellow curve stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness in this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this phenomenon several days ago. Recent bullish bounces continues with little challenge this theme.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010). Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

Both major indices are enjoying relatively mild volume, suggesting little interest in shifting bias away from the bull. Although this is a classical sucker rally configuration, there is little justification for not holding and participating in this rally. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

 

Apr 16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. However, NTI Blue Bulls and QTI Red Bulls remain unthreatened. Such a configuration without the protection of these Short-term bulls would be discerning. That is not the case right now.

 

Apr 15, 2010-Thu-Big board volume was relatively high on mild bearishness. NASDAQ volume was relatively flat on mild bullishness. There are no obviations of shifts in directional intensity from volume observations. Therefore, bullish bias prevails.

 

Apr 14, 2010-Wed-Increased volume on bullish aggression suggests add punch to the bull’s vigor.

 

Apr 13, 2010-Tue-Increased volume on flat market behavior continues status quo; bullish bias.

 

Apr 12, 2010-Mon-Same as last Friday.

 

Apr 9, 2010-Fri-Again mild volume and mild bullishness continues supporting prevailing bullish bias.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 8.5%, annualizing at 47.6%, since their buy signals an average of 9.3-weeks ago.

 

The NTI is avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 8.7% since their sell signals an average of 6.4-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 37.0% since their buy signals an average of 45.4-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 42.3%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of 33.3% since their sell signals an average of 30.6-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bull Count; 19-bullish support; several lost on Friday’s bearish aggression, but still a majority.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 29-non-contrarians sloping north; bullish support.

NTI Green Bear Count; zero non-contrarians and solidly non-bearish.

NTI Green Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north; non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 27-non-contrarian; bullish support.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; majority of 29-sloping north in support of Quick-term Bull.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority, supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to any potential bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

STI Force Vector Direction: 15-moving bullishly; eight shifted back to the south today.

STI Force Vector Position; 21-populating bullish domains; 21-greater than Pressure; bullish support, but six lost on Friday in both categories.

Vector Pressure Position; a majority of 29-non-contrarians in bullish domains; bullish support. This attribute is a focal point since Pressure is near zero.

Vector Pressure Trend; 26-moving north; bullish support; two shifted direction on Friday to the south.

Short-term Summary: Most attributes continue supporting the Short-term Bull. Recent bullish behavior has elevated Pressure, which is bullish. Some were attacked by the bear today, but remains configured in support of the bull.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 3.3% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 27.4%. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 15.3% since that buy signal, annualizing at 21.6%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

 

This is again a solid NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 37.9% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 27.8%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $100.93 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 2, 2010. It is up 0.2% since that buy signal, annualizing at 1.6%. Recent bearish threats had diminished but still pestering the gold bull.

 

Interestingly, Force and Pressure microscopically entered bullish domains on Mar 31-Wed, offering a bit more support for the golden bull. Since then, GLD has moved solidly to the north, but attacked by the gold bear on Friday.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  is down 1.1% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 2, 2010.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Mar 4, 2010. TLT is down 1.4% since that sell signal.

 

Force and Pressure remain in bearish domains, offering support to the TLT bear.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Mar 2, 2010. It is down 16.2% since then.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 65.2% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $22.63 and still falling.

 

Major ETF Events

Apr 16, 2010-Fri-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is ominous. The NTI Blue Bull and QTI Red Bull population remain as a majority and offers resistance to follow-on bearish aggression. Until they expired, the Short-term Bull remains in tact.

Apr 15, 2010-Thu-There were no major events.

Apr 14, 2010-Wed-Although today’s bullish behavior was impressive, Utilities did not participate. This suggests rotational trading behavior and thus lacking desired breadth. However, volume was aggressive adding spice to bullish desires. Somewhat of a conflicting message, which suggests continued caution.

Apr 13, 2010-Tue-Several Force Vectors shifted south today, but not yet threatening.

Apr 12, 2010-Mon-No major events.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 16, 2010-To protect recent gains on recent buys, be prepared to sell if bearish behavior continues with increasing volume. Gains from QTI buy signals are well protected. If you are enjoying those gains wait for contact with bearish yellow. Friday’s bearish aggression appears technical at this point. Apr 15, 2010-Thu-Holding remains safe. Apr 14, 2010-Wed-Aggressive volume accompanied bullish behavior. If this relationship continues in the next few days, conditions will be favorable for additional buying. Keep in mind, volume surges sometime precede directional reversals. Apr 13, 2010-Tue-Same as yesterday. Apr 12, 2010-Mon-Holding remains safe; new buying not strong; need more volume.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

04/16/10

 

 

Apr 15, 2010 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 10 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Focal points remain with prices, relative to the NTI Green curve, and Vector Pressure. As long as the former increases on the charts and the latter remains in bullish domains, the bear cannot find success. QTI Red Bulls are offering additive assurances against dynamic bearish potential. So far, any bearish expressions should be considered as mere bearish spurts.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up 9.5% since their bull signals on Mar 3, 2010, annualizing at 80.1%.  There are two indices enduring bear signals. They are down by an average of 7.1% since their respective bear signals an average of 8.5-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 10-major indices. They are up by an average of 34.7%, annualizing at 40.9%, since their bull signals an average of 44.1-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for two major indices (the Dow Jones Utilities and contrarian VIX). They are down by an average of 5.4% since their respective bear signals an average of 7.8-weeks ago.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; solid bullish support.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarians; solid bullish support.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarians is inflicted with this attribute and thus non-bearish. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

 

The Quick-term Indicant remains supportive of the QTI Bull.

     

      Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten non-contrarians and arguing with them is not profitable.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian; bullish support.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian moving north; non-bearish. Ten shifted bullishly on Mar 4, 2010.

     

The Near-term attributes remain in favor of the bull.

 

      Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

      STI-Force Vector Domain Position; Eleven non-contrarians in bullish domain, supporting bull.

      STI-Force Vector Position Relative to Vector Pressure; Eleven non-contrarians above Pressure. Prior mild bearish threat is subsiding, but it still exists, as Force Vectors are not bullishly aggressive.

      STI-Force Vector Direction; Eleven moving north, strong bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Eleven non-contrarians are moving bullishly; bullish support.

      STI-Vector Pressure Position; All non-contrarians are in bullish domains.

     

      Short-term Market Summary

      Short-term attributes continue configuring in support of the bull. Prior declining Force Vectors redirected to the north. This eliminated the mild bearish threat. This is a low volume bull and once it run its course, the next bear cycle has a higher probability of configuring with more breadth and depth. However, if this Near-term Bull gets a volume nudge, it can enjoy significant additional longevity. One could argue that low volume is bullish since demand for stocks has a potential to increase and thus elevating their prices.

 

-Tangential Protection The Dow Composite, Dow Transports, NASDAQ, NAS100, S&P400, and S&P600 have tangential protection. Tangential protection, once formed, helps avoid the pitfalls of fluttering behavior.

 

-Political Climate – Political disharmony continues and bullish. Legal battles between the Federal and State governments offers bullish inspiration. Although the passage of healthcare has a long-term bearish projection, the market remains bullish. Therefore, in spite of this longer-term prognosis of bearishness, the Near-term and Quick-term bull/hold signals will remain in tact until attributes deteriorate and supportive of the stock market bear. The stock market bull continues a prognosis of political discourse, but with possible political harmony on income tax simplification and reductions.  

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection We will have to wait for the next Near-term bear cycle to monitor this tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link.