Apr 2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

April 26, 2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 4, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

This Week’s Report

Parasites Always Kill the Host – Too Big to Fail, Huh

The Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890 suggested competition evolves from multiple competitors. People in the 1890’s understood the importance of competition. Most participated in that universal law on a daily basis. The problem with government is the absence of competition. There is no tension phenomenon to induce high performance. The problem with large complex organizations, such as the typical Fortune 500 company, is most employee’s being oblivious of competitive forces. Even after being laid off, few are capable of accurately assessing the acute reasons for their demise.

The United States supported an environment of only three significant car companies for the past four decades. It is about to shrivel down to two, depending on the context of Chrysler’s bankruptcy. Politicians will be lining up to the microphone reciting their disgust and no telling where the finger will be pointing. Rest assured they will be point the wrong way.

Chrysler did not learn the lessons from 1979-1982. That is not surprising. Most Chrysler leadership employees in 1979-1982 retired and their kiddies are now in charge. Their kiddies were clones of their pappies and mammies. They built gas-guzzlers in the late 1970’s with record oil prices confronting them and taxpayers bailed them out at that time. Their offspring repeated the same error. Here we go again bailing them out. Those folks have zero anticipatory sills. Their flexibility approaches that of a railroad track. Their strategic abilities are obviously absent.

In 1947, the Tucker Torpedo attempted automotive market participation in the U.S. Politicians and other shady characters, including executives at the Big Three, destroyed Tucker and his organization using clandestine methods as opposed to open competition. Last weeks report stated the antithesis to a thesis is not always immediate. The destruction of Tucker opened a wider market for the Japanese to penetrate. Politicians and Big Three executives were not as well equipped to strike out at foreign competition due to their cheating ways. Their cheating weakened them and the Japanese toyed U.S. manufacturers for several decades by slowly taking the Big Three’s market share. They did this with superior management and manufacturing techniques. In 2005, Toyota increased their prices “to help the Americans.” That allowed GM to raise prices and minimize market share losses. The Japanese preferred industry stability, as opposed to cut throat competition.

As the Big Three were “protected” from domestic competition, Japanese automakers enjoyed the productive efforts of five major competing automobile producers; Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, and Subaru. A country less than half the size of the U.S. enjoyed the competitive elements of nearly two times the auto producers than in the U.S. More competition in Japan than the U.S. is one reason why the quality of their products was superior to the U.S.

The importance of auto productive capacity is very important for land wars. Automobile plants can be reconstructed to accommodate tank production and other physical objects required for war. It was that productive capacity and ability that contributed to the allied victory in World War II. During those years, buffoon management was minimal, as opposed to today’s excesses of those type of managers.

Also, being protected by the parasitical elite (politicians and some Fortune 500 executives) are large banks. Two hundred years ago, Leroy the rancher, would visit his neighbor, Elroy the banker, and arrange financing until the herd got to the Kansas City. Once there, Leroy would be paid by the packagers. Leroy would then pay Elroy off. That was a pretty simple and most probably done on a handshake.

The parasitical elite wines and dines nearly every evening in Washington D.C. and New York Wall Street, indulging in the finest cooked red meat that is available. The next day, they cater to those extremist anti-animal meat groups to get votes. The hypocrisy and corruption is swelling in the ranks of the parasitical elite. The populace is being victimized, but yet look to those who are victimizing them as saviors.

Those parasitical elites are threatened, as it is harder to keep secrets today due to the Internet. That has led to them suggesting returning military personnel are potentially dangerous. They should not plant such seeds. An unemployed soldier is indeed dangerous and they are not limited to the U.S. They are in many countries and growing in numbers every day.

The large bankers and most politicians attended the same colleges. Many attended the Ivy League schools, which is the proud producer of many Enron executives and Arthur Anderson consultants. They wine and dine together. Their contribution to the economy is zero. Their lavish lifestyles and existence negatively affect the economy. That is why the term, parasitical elite is used.

The systems increasingly being employed by government and politicians is a legalized Ponzi scheme. They tax you and then shave some off the top for personal gain and pleasures. Since tax is a bad word, they created a hidden tax, by printing paper money. That generates demands that eventually exceed supply. The ensuing inflation is a hidden tax on you. At some future point, these parasitical elites will destroy their hosts (you).

The bear knows all of this and is delighting in its accelerating development. Along the way of the bear’s southerly movement, there are near-term bull rallies and in spite of the mumbo-jumbo you hear from the media, rest assured this bear will dominate for a long period of time. The Dow may not see its previous high until after 2050, which approximates the period where the world’s population begins its decline for the first time ever. That is bearish.

Such developments take a long time. The corruption and Ponzi-like attitudes in Washington D.C. and Wall Street will continuously devolve wealth-building opportunities in the United States and most of the West.

Fortunately, the Far East may be shaping up like the 1890’s Americas. Many first generation managers are setting up their companies. They are doing this with honest hard working effort and thus are more competitive than the overpaid dilettantes of the West are. There is plenty of populace in the Far East to drive demands from the only three elements of wealth building; agriculture, manufacturing, and extraction. Western politicians have no influence on them. That is good for the time being. Strategically, though, your grandchildren will be weakened by evolving socialism in the West and thus vulnerable to the Far East. Much depends on how long the parasitical elite persist.

The stock market is not centered on strategic issues and other longer-term elements. Congress is back at work, which is bearish. We are about to enter the summer months, which is typically non-bullish to bearish. The Near-term Bull is showing early signs of wear and tear. Vector Pressures are at or near maximum values. Force Vectors did not bounce north with last week’s bullish rallies on Thursday and Friday. (Note: This Near-term Bull appears bent on contacting Bullish Red and do not be surprised at some more upside).

Keep in mind, this bearish sounding commentary is fundamentally based and not technical. The Near-term Bull remains in tact. However, if politicians do not do what is right; that is break-up organizations that are too big to fail, this “strategic bear” will persist.

It is unlikely politicians will do what is right. There is no personal benefit to them. Right now, they only have to cozy up to a few big organizations for their campaign funds, golf outings, and other niceties. Breaking up those too big to fail would make their job of garnishing unearned wealth much harder.

Dilettante and socialist CEO’s are awaiting large, low competition, government contracts from their pals in Washington D.C. They are doing this to bolster their earnings. They are overpaid, low performing folks. They seek the easy path, knowing that GE-likened organizations would get contracts from U.S. politicians. This facilitates hiring more populace in their constituencies; thus more votes. This will promote lower quality of product and higher costs. It will lower production and thus increase waiting time for product. That increased waiting time will contribute to inflationary pressures. There will be no Toshiba-like companies competing for such contracts since they are foreign companies. Rest assured if the rest of the world is more competitive, they will enjoy superior lifestyle and be a threat to sovereignty in the West.

Remember, those that can manufacture have always ruled or possess an inherent ability to do so over those that cannot. Those Asian funds may remain bullish after the Near-term Bull expires and the bear resumes market dominance. The Near-term Indicant will keep you posted on that.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals. There have been 540-sell signals since October 26, 2007 and 38-buy signals since October 31, 2008.

Although there were no buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for only 21 of the 344-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 114.9%. That annualizes to 62.5%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 21-stocks and funds for an average of 95.6-weeks.

Although there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 323-stocks and funds of the 344- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 31.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 46.6-weeks ago.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding all 100-Mutual Funds tracked by the Indicant, excluding the 31-ETF’s tracked daily. The Mid-term Indicant tracked funds are down an average of 30.9% since their sell signals an average of 44.9-weeks ago. The 31-ETF’s trade more frequently and are updated in the daily stock market report.

One year ago, on Apr 25, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 201-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 125.7-weeks. They were up by an average of 129.9% (annualized at 53.8%). There were 140-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 15.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 26.1-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 296-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Apr 27, 2007. They were up by an average of 124.7% (annualized at 64.8%) since their respective buy signals an average of 100.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 35-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 11.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 21.5-weeks earlier.

There were 272-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 28, 2006 since their buy signals an average of 99.5-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 136.7% (annualized at 71.4%). There were 69-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 5.7% from their respective sell signals an average of 18.9-weeks earlier.

On Apr 29, 2005, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 201-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 95.7% (annualized at 56.7%) since their buy signals an average of 87.7-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 115-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 29.3% since their sell signals an average of 52.9-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Apr 24, 2004, there were 265-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 75.1% (annualized at 71.8%) since their respective buy signals an average of 49.7-weeks earlier. There were only 25-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 28.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 39.3-weeks earlier.

On Apr 26, 2003, there were 247-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 26.1%, annualizing at 87.7%. There were 34-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 26.4% since their sell signals an average of 28.2-weeks earlier. There were 119-buy signals on Mar 22, 2003, which was the beginning of a nice Mid-term Bull Leg that lasted through that year. Most continued to hold through the meandering bear of 2004 and early 2005. Several did not receive sell signals until late 2007 and early 2008 since those March 2003 buy signals.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Right now, the pendulum is swinging to the left. That is not good for stock equity related investing.

All updated information can be accessed from the following link. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Fundamentally, there is no reason to expect any bullish potential on a near-term, short-term, or mid-term basis. Earnings will continue to deteriorate and the normal capital “cleansing of the incompetent” is not being allowed by socialistic intervention. Wealth cannot be created when incompetent individuals are in the normal process of wealth creation; manufacturing, extraction, and agriculture. The natural ebb and flow of capitalism is not cleansing the inefficient and incompetent. Socialistic intervention will lead to higher costs, lower product quality, and a lower standard of living for all.

However, even with this “fundamental” gloom, there will be periods of technical rebounds. Those rebounds can lead to either bullish spurts or sustainable short-term rallies. Both spurts and rallies are configured the same in their first few days. After the first few days, the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant models differentiate spurts from rallies. Those of you who enjoy short-term trading will want to participate in rallies.

The current Near-term Indicant’s Bull is solid in spite of its illogical behavior. The Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term models are insensitive fundamental reason. This Near-term is solid and has been increasingly so with support from the Quick-term Indicant. There have been a few Quick-term buy signals the past few days for the first time in several months.

There are some early signs the Near-term Indicant is nearing a peak. Vector Pressure is at or near a maximum value. Force Vector is not being responsive to bullish rallies. However, until you see Near-term sell signals, the bull will remain in tact.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is imbedded in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months.

The Daily Indicant Stock Market Report for the last trading day of the current week is near the conclusion of this weekly stock market report. It is emailed each weekend, separately, so you can read it, either as a separate document, or in this document.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 10.8% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 52.1% and the S&P500 is up 11.5% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 49.8% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. Interestingly, the NASDAQ100 is up 70.1% since October 9, 2002, which is more than the other indices. RIMM, Apple, and a few others who have strongly performed are the primary contributors. Now, the current economic environment is challenging them.

The Dow is down 43.0% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 40.7% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is down 42.6% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007.

The NASDAQ is down 66.4% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 43.3% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 31.1% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

The good news is the politicians in Washington D.C. have reduced their power by weakening their already weak constituents. International competitiveness will continue reducing their power and influence. With that, capitalists around the world will continue providing products of appeal, while politicians continue exuding irrelevant commentary. Let’s just hope that products of appeal is not weaponry, alone.

The Dow is down 8.0% so far this year. The NASDAQ is up 7.4% so far this year. Keep in mind the post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since 1832. So far, the stock market is conforming to this historical standard, but the NASDAQ is currently arguing with that standard.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 18.4% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%., which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 12.2% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which is consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 9.1%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 2.3% and finished up by 8.6% for that year, which was congruent with election year bullishness although shy of magnitude standards. It was down by 11.2% in 2005’s post election year, which maintained congruency to the historical standards of losses. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. 2005 finished up by a mere 1.4%, which was an excellent year based on post election year historical standards. In 2006, it was up 5.8% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 4.5% at this time in 2007 with the Alan Greenspan scare but finished up that year by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. It was down 8.4% at this time last year. The NASDAQ finished down by 40.5% in 2008. That was contrarian performance to historical election year bullishness and the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

So far, this presidential post election year is performing consistently with historical standards. The capital markets understand socio-political influences are predominant in the first year of most incoming administrations and thus generally non-bullish. Politicians offer nothing pertinent to the quality of life, including health or wealth. They “talk about it” but just one RN offers more toward health and one good entrepreneur offers more toward wealth than the collection of all politicians, kings, queens, and dictators since the beginning of time. Those “control freaks” only talk and rob folks of their wealth and health.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% due to increasing bullish influences for your longer-term holdings. The Mid-term Indicant for major indices is supporting with a bull signal while it is much more conservative in signaling buy for funds and stocks.

Most of the longer-term holdings of stocks and funds continue with “avoid” signals, but a few are still holding. The risk of continued holding, even for the likes of Apple, remains relaxed.

If you feel you will need cash within the next two years, you should consider selling all stocks. (The Indicant is not signaling hold for any mutual funds, including those that short the market at this time). The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models participate in bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data, which remains bearish.

If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 10% trailing stop loss.

If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 20% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending and excessive concerns about social issues. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money. High performing companies remain focused on honoring the investments made by their shareholders.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds with those “bearish” attributes. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report. Use the Quick-term Indicant as a guide in your decision-making processes. If the stock price is falling in a Quick-term Bear market, it is not advisable to buy.

Do not short on stocks if they are up from an avoid signal. Stocks go up more often than they go down. Stocks have a tendency to march to their own drumbeat when rising. Some stocks rise and continue to rise in the most severe of bear markets. Short selling opens up an opportunity for the snakes on Wall Street to take everything you own. They can cause a stock to rise at their whim and without any regard to fundamental reason. It usually does not make sense to bet against the sweat and toil of hard-working people.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Short-term interest rates have moved north in six of the past thirteen weeks. They moved south the past two weeks. As stated the past several weeks, the issue confronting the Fed is the threat of deflation from a souring economic environment, followed by hyperinflation, as the supply of printed money is increasing well beyond productive capacities. That will eventually lead to demand exceeding supply by significant amounts and thus leading to hyperinflation. The demand will be generated from both socio-economic extremes; the very rich and the very poor. The middle class will be caught in the squeeze. The middle class works for the rich and the rich are about to become less rich; go figure.

As stated last week, the problem with the devolving economy is that those buying goods and services are not producers. Although some of the very rich are highly productive, they are too few in numbers to offset the increasingly higher number of the lazy poor-“give-me” generation. That will further depress the supply side, thereby adding socioeconomic problems in addition to the inflationary threats. The political structure is shortsighted due to “vote getting” mentality. Without strategic vision or for that matter, capability, political leaders endure their psychological problems and with that, wealth destruction by them continues.

There is no change from the past fifteen weeks. Interest rates remain at record low levels. That normally fosters a bullish stock market. Unfortunately, souring economic conditions at an accelerating rate have reduced the normal bullish relationship of low interest rates as irrelevant. Although rates are low, the process of borrowing money is not a capitalistic relationship between borrower and seller and thus irrelevant to the capital markets. Government intervention is going to wreak havoc on the United States economy. Governments simply cannot perform due to their riskless and reckless decision-making of using everyone else’s money plus a printing press.

As stated the past several weeks, the idea of capitalisms is to borrow or capitalize and expanding the supply of money (wealth) through productive effort. That is not what is going on right now. Wealth creation will continue to slow and maybe even capsize. With that, there will be a reduction of the quality of life, which typically leads to war.

However, as the world shrinks and asset ownership is not isolated geographically, world wars will diminish as an option to overcome displeasure. It will be interesting to see what replaces it. Displeasure by the masses is certainly not an ever-lasting option. In the end, though, those will the most talent at physical object creation are always the winners.

The U.S. dollar continues enduring resistance in strengthening its bullish cycle. The dollar’s significance as an international currency is now under attack by the Chinese, who will eventually become the economic world power. The United States has been weakened severely by its “tyranny by the majority” and excessive focus on socio-economic programs that have absolutely nothing to do with cultural strength and economic wealth. The printing presses and “politburo style politics” in the U.S. will reduce the dollar to just another world currency.

The U.S. economy is perceived to have the greatest chance of returning to robustness when compared to other countries. As stated the past thirteen weeks, the exception to this is China, who may or may not need U.S. consumption to bolster their economy. A weakening dollar against the Yuan may enjoy a longer-term labor relationship with the West. However, the stock market is focused only on the next six to nine months.

The commodities bearish cycle continues configuring at a bottom. It is already figured at prices supporting a low economic case. As long as they are bouncy near their cyclical minimums, the economic outlook should be considered as no worse than present. Although that is not positive, the magnitude of negatives has at least flattened for the time being.

Gold is an exception. It remains too risky to sell on a Quick-term basis, even though it is now being avoided on a Near-term basis. Longer-term hold positions are okay. Its strength is a testament to the fear elements inherent in the economy. Economic conditions will be fostering the “hate element” of humanity. Keep your eye on the daily report as gold appears nearing a cyclical peak on a short-term basis, but fundamentally remains a solid hold.

As stated 28-weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental. You will see that prognosis continuing in spite of recent bullish expressions.

As stated 24-weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.”

As stated 20-weeks ago, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near expiration. Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from time to time, but the trend should remain bearish throughout this year and into 2010. Bullish spurts will occur from time to time. As we learned from the November 28, 2008 – January 21, 2009 bullish spurt, profit potential from them is limited and in some cases disappoint rather rapidly. The attempted spurt on Feb 6, 2009 faded quickly and expired on Feb 19, 2009. The short-term trader will trade on those spurts, which is occurring now, while mid-to-long-term investor should remain on the sidelines. Finally, the current spurt underway has potential for sustainability through April. So far, it has performed well.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 30.4% since that sell signal. It has been bearish in ten of the last 16-weeks. It has been bullish the past two weeks.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is down 12.9% since the Midterm Indicant signaled sell on August 1, 2008. It has been solidly bearish the past four weeks.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 17.9% since that sell signal. It has been bullish in five of the last six weeks.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 29.7% since that sell signal. It has been bullish the past seven weeks.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 48.8% since that sell signal and enjoyed bullishness the past few weeks, including last week.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 17.3% since that sell signal and bullish the past few weeks.

Following two weeks of solid bullishness and one week of mixed behavior, energy related funds were bullish last week. They have endured significant bearishness in 19 of the last 36-weeks, but significant bullishness in five of the last six weeks. The balance of supply and demand for oil appears to taking hold and with that, pricing stability.

As stated the past few weeks, the energy industry will not be bullish as long as politicians are trying to run it. The North American automotive industry will be weak for years to come as long as government is loaning money to dilettante managers. The quality of the products, regardless if fuel-efficient or not, will deteriorate. If you want to buy a car for your young daughter, do not buy American.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on April 3, 2009. It is up 0.1% since then. The Quick-term Indicant continues to signal avoid since September 2, 2008. It is down 34.5% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 11.2% since that buy signal, annualizing at 30.2%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 26.0%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy this last Friday. This is a technical buy with not really strong attributes. Vector Pressure is drifting south.

Gold was apparently overbought. It is simply enduring a near-term cyclical adjustment and sector rotation. Its long-term outlook appears solidly bullish. Keep your eye on its relative price position with respect to the Quick-term Indicant’s bearish yellow curve. As long as bearish yellow is inclining, long-term holding is with minimal risks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on April 3, 2009 for the ten major indices. The ten major indices are up 2.9% since then annualizing at 148.8%. This “reluctant bull signal” was due to the strongly configuring near-term and quick-term bullish indicators. Do not be surprised at a bear signal once this short-term bullish cycle completes.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $25,691,410.

That beats buy and hold performance of $1,228,707 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $124,130. That beats buy and hold’s $84,850 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $170,038. That beats buy and hold’s $58,748 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1990.9%, 46.3%, and 189.4%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade, as the bear will gain momentum.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 9.6% since then. It is too risky to hold with the Near-term and threatening Quick-term bull cycle. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, current technical indicators are advising to avoid this fund until the Near-term bullish cycle expires.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 179.0% (annualized at 10.2%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 912-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning. However, the Long-term Indicant is getting very close to signaling bear. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below:

Keep in mind this recession is not yet as bad as the 1979-82 recession. The Long-term Indicant is not influenced by short-term or mid-term cyclical behavior. It also takes into account longer-term performance within the model, both past and projected.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Near-term bullish bias configured on March 31, 2009 with a solid bounce off Blue. That attribute suggested this is not a short-term bullish spurt, but with a high probability of sustainability. The average duration of a Near-term cycle ranges from 10-14 weeks. Several indicators are moving north; Bullish Blue, Bearish Green, and Vector Pressure. Force Vector cycles are mature and continue hovering in bullish domains, which correlates to cyclical sustainability on a short-term basis. They can linger there for several more weeks before the Near-term Bull expires. There are several Quick-term Red Bulls, which mitigates dynamic bearish threats. It only takes one non-contrarian Red Bull to offer this obstinate resistance to bearish dominance.

Keep in mind, this Near-term Bull is fighting the trend, which is bearish. The Quick-term bearish yellow and bullish red curves continue moving south. Recent Red Bulls are now challenging this bearish trend, but have not yet overcome it with the required breadth.

As stated the past few days, this Near-term cycle appears bent on contacting the Quick-term Red and/or Yellow Curves and we are now seeing some of that. This is a common occurrence in bear markets. The Quick-term curves are sloping to the south, so it will not take much bullishness for this “technical achievement.” Once contact is made, dynamic bearishness usually follows. The breadth of contact remains minimal at this point. So, those laggards will be trying to catch up while those who have already done so may rest for awhile. As long as those laggards are trying to achieve this end, the Near-term Bull will persist.

The focal point will be on Force Vectors interaction with Vector Pressure. The Near-term Bull does not want to see Force Vectors move solidly to the south into bearish domains. When Force Vectors cross into bearish domains and prices fall below bearish green, you will know that Near-term Bull will be nearing expiration. That should be several days from now, but it can change quickly.

Previous comments regarding XLF and UGY are still pertinent. Please click this sentence to link to prior comments. XLF received a near-term buy signal on March 31, 2009. If you enjoy higher risks and related reward potential, you may prefer buying UGY. They are configured identically.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled bull for the eleven major indices on Mar 31, 2009 and bear for Contrarian VIX on the same day. The 11-major indices are up by an average of 9.5% since that bull signal, annualizing at 143.9%. The VIX is down 16.5% since the bear signal.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for three major indices. They are up by an average of 1.3% since their respective bull signals an average of 1.4-weeks ago. The other nine major indices, including contrarian VIX, are down by an average of 29.7% since the QTI signaled bear an average of 35.2-weeks ago. Many of those Quick-term yellow bears are nearing expiration. All that is needed is for them to cross above bearish yellow and have a Near-term Bull signal. They all possess the latter.

On-going attribute watch for major indices:

-Near-term Directional Intensity Unanimity-All eleven major indices received a bull signal on March 31, 2009. They all bounced north of their respective Near-term Bullish Blue Curves in response to bearish aggression on Mar 27 and Mar 30. That was “near-term” bullish synergy with breadth following the initial surge in early March. As stated last Monday, Monday’s bearish aggression did not upset this bullish attribute. As stated since last Tuesday, Tuesday’s bullish response suggested the Near-term Bullish Blue curve continues acting as a floor to assertions by the bear. That is bullish on a near-term basis. The Dow Utilities is not compliant with the requirement of bullish synergy. The Dow30 is also weakening. However, in spite of those two non-conformists, the Near-term Bull remains solid.

-QTI Red Bull Status—Quick-term bias favors bear. The bear responded to the three recent Quick-term Red Bulls, nudging them back to the south of the Bullish Red Curve. Since the Near-term Indicant continues signaling bull, the Quick-term Indicant remains bullish for these new Quick-term Bulls.

QTI Yellow Bear Status-Quick-term bias favors bear, but weakening. Quick-term yellow bears offer no resistance level to falling stock prices. Contrarian VIX fell prey to the bull on April 16, 2009 as it received a Quick-term Bear Signal. It is a passive bear, poised for a bullish recoil when the Near-term Bull expires. For those of you who delight in bearish stock market behavior, patience is the key at this point. Stalk related options. This Near-term Bull may have a few more weeks of life before its expiration.

-NTI Blue Bull Direction-This indicator is moving north, favoring the Near-term Bull. The Dow Utilities fell below several days ago and has been struggling. It remains bullishly configured by the short-term indicators (vector pressure and force vectors). Utilities is the weakest Near-term bull. The DJIA continues to weaken. This lack of sector breadth suggests this cycle will be limited to a near-term bull and not a longer lasting quick-term bull or short-term bull.

-NTI Green Bear Direction – Moving north; non-bearish. If and when they pass buy prices, that is an excellent position for setting stop losses. It is usually better to set stop losses at a dollar or two below the bearish green price. Green will rise rapidly facilitating this tactic. This helps prevent stopping out. Prices falling below bearish green are too risky for holding on a near-term basis, but that is not the case right now.

-STI Force Vector Position- In spite of last Monday’s bearish aggression, most remain inside bullish domains. Aberrant behavior in bullish domains suggests bullish support on a short-term basis when other Near-term Indicators are favoring the bull. This is strongly bullish on a short-term and near-term basis, but the DJIA Force Vector fell below Vector Pressure on April 22, 2009, suggesting the Near-term Bull is near peaking. This does not mean the bull’s expiration is imminent. Peaking behavior can last for two to three weeks. The DJU is very weak and teetering on becoming the first Near-term Bear for the next cycle to the south. However, without breadth, the threat is minimal at this time.

-STI Force Vector Direction – Their recent abnormal southerly movement is not supportive of the bear with the exception of the Dow Utilities. A few dipped south, but non-threatening to the Near-term bull, as this turning and twisting is well inside bullish domains. This remains in spite of last Monday’s bearish aggression. If they fall into bearish domains and prices fall below green, this Near-term Bull will expire. The Dow Utilities appears as if it will be the first to expire, which is contrary to its lagging behavior in recent cycles.

-Vector Pressure Position- Short-term bearish bias concluded on Mar 24, 2009. None are in bearish domains, except the VIX. Many are near a peak, though, suggesting this Near-term Bull is nearing respective peak prices in this near-term cycle.

-Vector Pressure Direction –Short-term bearish bias concluded on Mar 21, 2009. They continue moving in support of the bull. Technical data (bullish) and fundamental data (long-term bearishness) are in conflict. But the Short-term trend from Vector Pressure is always insensitive to any argument, regardless of corporate or economic fundamental logic. Their cycles are most likely at a maximum point.

-Tangential Protection - None of the 11-major indices possess this attribute.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection - Construction will begin upon the expiration of the current Near-term Bullish cycle now underway. It will identify a future lower trading range upon completion of its construction. It is 100% accurate in predicting this future phenomenon. In other words, after this bullish cycle completes, another bearish cycle will follow. Depending on breadth and bullish magnitude of the impending bullish cycle, do not be surprised at a 5,000 or lower Dow by August/September. This should lead to a 3,000 Dow just ahead of the mid-term election year in 2010. Of course, keep in mind, the Indicant does not officially forecast. Fundamentally, either inflation or deflation always favors the bear. Right now, the additive values of interest rates to the absolute value of inflation/deflation is okay (not supportive of the bear).

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. There is one chart containing both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve in the next two to three weeks. It could be a bit longer as those constructions cannot occur until the current Near-term Bull cycle expires.

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators aborted robust behavior on Mar 31, 2009. As stated since then, they appeared to have pinnacled, which suggested stock market stability. Also, as sated since then, volatility should wane, which favors the underlying cycle of directional intensity. That is bullish on a near-term basis. (This paragraph will be repeated unchanged until conditions change).

As stated on April 22, 2009, the NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator is rising again. This supports near-term bullishness. The NYSE halted its lethargic configuration. That is supportive of stability. That combination biases in favor of the Near-term Bull.

Short-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated one buy signals and no sell signals.

In addition to the buy signal, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 10.5%, annualizing at 152.2% since their buy signals an average of 3.6-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down by an average of 6.4% since their sell signals an average of 4.9-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated two buy signals and no sell signals.

In addition to the buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for ten ETF’s. They are up an average of 54.0% since their buy signals an average of 8.4-weeks ago. Nineteen-ETF’s are down by an average of 32.2% since their sell signals an average of 36.0-weeks ago.

The recent Quick-term Red Bulls significantly reduces the threat of dynamic bearish behavior. That attribute has not been enjoyed with the current breadth since early 2008. As long as there are Quick-term Red Bulls, one does not have to worry about bearish dominance.

The selling and avoidance of the 99-non-contrarian funds were triggered by the Mid-term Indicant. Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood a few months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Apr 24, 2009-Fri-Although there were two new Quick-term bull signals today, the Near-term Bull is nearing a peak. This peaking could last for two to four more weeks. As long as Force Vectors continue avoidance of bearish domains and bullish blue continues to rise, the Near-term Bull will remain obviously in tact. So far, nothing is diminishing this obviation of bullish directional intensity. Apr 23, 2009-Thu-There is no difference from yesterday. It will be interesting to see how aggressive the bull will respond to the bearish threat being imposed on the Dow30 and Utilities. Apr 22, 2009-Wed-Dow30 and Dow Utilities are showing some bullish weakness, but still without major bearish threats. This weakness is isolated, but an early indication the Near-term Bull is preparing for either a pause or expiration. Apr 21, 2009-Tue-Bullish blue is acting as a floor for bullish bounces. Apr 20, 2009-Mon-Near-term attributes continue to rise. This will facilitate bullish responses to the mischievous bear. An early indicator of the Near-term Bull’s expiration will be the collapsing of the bullish blue curves.

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 15.5% since then. Its configuration is similar to VIX, but the math of double downs is sometimes distorting. It, along with VIX, is poised for a bullish cycle, but they can both linger for several more weeks by scraping along the edge of bearish domains. Recent behavior suggests they are comfortable laying in bearish domains, while they contemplate their next attack on the near-term bull. QID is very bearish right now with declining Force Vectors deep inside bearish domains.

ETF#03-Natural Resources - This ETF is down 34.5% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on September 2, 2008.

As previously stated, the Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until Vector Pressure is positive and Yellow Bear expires.

Force Vector jumped north on Apr 3 and the Near-term Indicant signaled buy. It is up 0.1% since this Near-term Bull signal. The Near-term bull is being challenged by the oil bear. Its bullish blue curve is weakening, but still holding up. The problem with this hold signal is that Vector Pressure is at a maximum. This does not mean it is about to become bearish, but that has been the response to this configuration this past year when bullish blue is lazy. Set your stop loss at green price minus 50-cents or so.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 11.2% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. It is annualized growth is at 30.2% since then. The model’s intent is to beat buy and hold. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy today GLD. Its Force Vector moved into bullish domains and its price moved above the bullish blue curve. This buy signal is not a comfortable one as it is against the declining Vector Pressure. However, 78% of the time with this configuration, prices move north.

Gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Near-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs, which is currently bearish.

ETF#14-Long Government is down 2.1% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Apr 7, 2009. Although it’s Vector Pressure remains positioned to support bullish behavior, and very much so, its Force Vector remains in bearish domains and its price remains below bullish blue. Its bullish blue curve collapsed today. That is bearish on a near-term basis.

We’re continuing to hold unless it becomes a Yellow Bear, as the Quick-term Indicant’s goal is to simply beat buy and hold. It is up 13.6% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on June 24, 2008 and annualizing at 16.1%.

Major ETF Events Today

Two additional Quick-term buy signals. That adds to the number of Red Bulls. Also, the Near-term buy signal for Gold is major. This buy signal is not a comfortable one as its Vector Pressure is trending south.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Bullish divergence occurred last week. This follows four consecutive weeks of bullish convergence and three consecutive weeks of bullish divergence. This is a powerful bullish attribute. However, the equally powerful bearish configurations still carries more weight than this recent bullishness.

Obviations of sustainable bullishness do not occur until there are four consecutive weeks of bullish convergence. That occurred four weeks ago. We now have a Near-term bullish cycle underway that has sustainability; as least through the month of April.

In spite of the newly forming bullish cycle, the bear market has not yet expired. Depending on political landscape, this bear could last for decades. FDR-like economic meddling will continue to erode economic wealth. Those responsible are either 1) stupid, 2) do not care, or 3) have motives that typically lead to war.

Indicant Conclusion

There were again no Mid-term Indicant buy signals for non-contrarian Mutual Funds. All 99-of those funds are with avoid signals. Additionally, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding contrarian ProShares Fund, mentioned earlier in this report. All 100-mutual funds remain with avoid signals.

Those funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant are down by an average of 30.9% since their sell signals an average of 44.9-weeks ago. Although the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models are holding a few of the ETF’s, the Mid-term Indicant will not signal buy for most of the Mutual Funds until they remove themselves from bearish domains. Current configurations suggest it could be a year or longer for that to occur. Although the Near-term Bull has been impressive, it has not shifted the funds to a buy position.

As stated the past few weeks, interest rates appear to be stabilizing similar to oil prices. Once the economy stabilizes, expect interest rates and/or inflation to mount a significant increase. Neither of those events will excite the bull.

Although commodity prices have been stable the past several weeks, deflation remains as an immediate concern. If it manifests, a 2500 Dow by 2010/11 may be optimistic. If the purported inflationary depression hits, the prognosis of a 2500 Dow would be similarly optimistic.

In spite of gold prices softening the past few weeks, the sharp increase in Gold and other precious metals prior to that softening, suggests inflation and/or fear elements are predominant themes. Neither of those phenomena will offer the bull much incentive to manifest, while these “psychological” investments should do well. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for gold this past Friday.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

04/26/09

April 19, 2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 4, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

This Week’s Report

Extremism

It is humorous that one group of extremist their opposites when the object of extremism is abstract. Although listening to most news broadcasts is generally a waste of precious time due to “opinion” content, it was difficult to escape the April 15 tea parties and related anti-tea party commentary. Abstract extremism is gaining momentum from both sides. The desire to synthesize is waning.

People’s opinions are mere abstract objects. They unfold from brains that weigh about three and a half pounds or so. Nearly everyone thinks his or her opinion is the accurate one; they feel they have networked their synapses with the proper connections. Anyone disagreeing with them must be inaccurate with some sort of diseased brain wave flow.

Extremism always invokes an extreme response. That is typical and shrouded in human nature. There must be some universal law; extremism is always met with extremism. The Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor and the United States responded with a nuclear explosion. The Confederate States attacked the northern states and a civil war ensued that resulted in more American deaths than any other American war. The Germans attacked the world a couple of times and the world squelched their attempt to dominate. Extremism is not new. David, the King of Jews, killed all villagers to create Israel and a few thousand years later, Adolph Hitler kills millions of Jews. Sometimes the response to extremism is not immediate.

Intrinsic in all living things is a desire to dominate all “other living” things. A sense of comfort is garnished from that intrinsic pursuit. Most living “things” cannot survive without taking from some other living thing; bees from flowers, lions from wildebeests, frogs from insects, etc. It is one of those biological requirements, where any abstract argument against its ugliness is irrelevant.

Any thesis invokes an antithesis argument. If a synthesis of these two arguments cannot evolve, a confrontation between thesis and antithesis evolves. The conclusion between the two conflicting views can be messy. Fortunately, humanity, for the most part, has learned to synthesize. From time to time, though, a peaceful synthesis remains elusive.

One example of contemporary extremism is the United States national deficit. It is record setting. To counter that national debt and increasing the size of government, many took to the streets and conducted a peaceful tea party to convey the antithesis to that debt and the known inefficiencies that will follow. The extremist, creating the huge national debt, deemed those tea partiers as extremists.

As earlier stated any thesis argument is always going to encounter an antithesis argument. Those with idle time on both sides then get into the sandbox together and toss sand at each other, while the physical object producer is hard at work and for the most part unaware of what those two extremist are doing.

If there is no synthesis between the two groups of extremists; those in favor of big government and debt versus those in favor of the opposite, then the conclusion can be messy. Sometimes the wrong win, but most of the time those who are right win. That is why most of us have enjoyed a few generations of an increased quality of life.

The producer of physical objects will determine the winner. Manufacturing societies have always dominated over those who could not manufacture. The group, who can produce the most efficient and destructive weapons will always win any conflict. It does not matter who is right or wrong in that case; the producer simply wins. It is a matter of just numbers of weapons or the efficiency of those weapons. With the employment of those weapons, all abstract opinions become irrelevant as the force of physical objects determine the outcome.

Those with a penchant to convey their opinions in contemporary society do not understand this. Neither side does. As unemployment increases, do not be surprised at how some will use their idle time. Some will not spend it writing phony resumes. Some will invoke their thesis arguments and others will respond with their antithesis argument. If this process remains civil, then a synthesis will evolve. If not, then it is messy.

The birth of the bull market of 2003 coincided with the bombing of Iraq. Did the stock market find bullishness in the bombing of Iraq? The answer could be some and some. Strategically, investors could have concluded that western dominance inside an OPEC country could have a stabilizing effect on oil prices. Some corporate strategic plans eluded to this concept for many years before 2003. Other investors could see the potential for increased manufacturing as war always does that. Since economic wealth is delivered in only three ways; manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction, two of those three elements were addressed in the bombing of Iraq. It remained isolated to Iraq and thus with minimal economic affect in terms of manufacturing potential.

As the low effort abstract object producers in the U.S. and parts of Europe continue their proclamations that antithesis positions against them are evil, the Far East continues to enjoy increasing capitalism. They can now manufacture. The most bullish funds since the Near-term Bull started in March have been those that invest in the Far East.

The Far East is not distracted by strong elements of extremism, which is occurring in the West. They, for the most part, are focused on wealth building; manufacturing, extraction, and agriculture. The West is focused on varying, but irrelevant paradigms, such as financial derivatives, bailouts to dilettante run organizations, and political vote-getting with expanding tyranny by the majority methods.

None of these endeavors in the West are focused on wealth creation, while those in the Far East are focused on wealth creation. In the process, Western society is throttling toward a weakening position in terms of wealth and potential survivability. The masses may become glaze-faced and fall into lines of support for phony political leadership that would make the Adolph Hitler types beam with pride.

Congress is returning to work next week. The Congressional Effect Fund will be selling stocks. The Near-term Indicant’s bullish blue and green curves are currently maintaining their bullish configurations. Once they break south, this Near-term Bull will expire.

There are a few ETF Quick-term Red Bulls. The earlier ones that received that cherished position a few weeks ago were those representing Far East investments. It will be interesting to see if they return to a bearish configuration when the rest of the market does. If not, you may be witnessing the early stages of a profound and secular paradigm shift. If that is the case, you will continue holding those Far East investments, while the dilettantes in the West continue battling with their thesis and antithesis arguments of mere abstract thought.

A few generations from now, your grandchildren will probably be okay, but speaking Chinese. It does not really matter, as long as they are able to enjoy life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Holding those Far East funds may help them.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals. There have been 540-sell signals since October 26, 2007 and 38-buy signals since October 31, 2008.

Although there were no buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for only 21 of the 344-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 117.4%. That annualizes to 64.3%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 21-stocks and funds for an average of 95.0-weeks.

Although there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 323-stocks and funds of the 344- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 31.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 45.6-weeks ago.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding all 100-Mutual Funds tracked by the Indicant, excluding the 31-ETF’s tracked daily. The Mid-term Indicant tracked funds are down an average of 32.5% since their sell signals an average of 43.9-weeks ago. The 31-ETF’s trade more frequently and are updated in the daily stock market report.

One year ago, on Apr 18, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 203-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 123.8-weeks. They were up by an average of 145.0% (annualized at 60.9%). There were 141-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 16.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 26.1-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 283-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Apr 20, 2007. They were up by an average of 127.0% (annualized at 64.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of 102.8-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 47-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 7.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 17.5-weeks earlier.

There were 271-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 21, 2006 since their buy signals an average of 98.5-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 138.4% (annualized at 73.1%). There were 63-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 6.6% from their respective sell signals an average of 20.1-weeks earlier.

On Apr 22, 2005, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 205-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 94.7% (annualized at 57.6%) since their buy signals an average of 85.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 115-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 28.7% since their sell signals an average of 52.4-weeks earlier.

On Apr 19, 2003, there were 247-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 26.4%, annualizing at 87.7%. There were 34-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 26.4% since their sell signals an average of 28.2-weeks earlier. There were 119-buy signals on Mar 22, 2003, which was the beginning of a nice Mid-term Bull Leg that lasted through that year. Most continued to hold through the meandering bear of 2004 and early 2005. Several did not receive sell signals until late 2007 and early 2008 since those March 2003 buy signals.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

All updated information can be accessed from the following link. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

However, the Near-term Indicant’s bull is solid in spite of its illogical behavior. The Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term models are insensitive fundamental reason. This Near-term is solid and has been increasingly so with support from the Quick-term Indicant. There have been a few Quick-term buy signals the past few days for the first time in several months.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 11.6% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 50.2% and the S&P500 is up 12.0% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 49.3% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. Interestingly, the NASDAQ100 is up 67.0% since October 9, 2002, which is more than the other indices. RIMM, Apple, and a few others who have strongly performed are the primary contributors. Now, the current economic environment is challenging them.

The Dow is down 42.6% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 41.5% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is down 42.7% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007.

The NASDAQ is down 66.9% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 43.1% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 30.6% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

The Dow is down 7.3% so far this year. The NASDAQ is up 6.1% so far this year. Keep in mind the post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since 1832. So far, the stock market is conforming to this historical standard, but the NASDAQ is currently arguing with that standard.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 22.2% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%., which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 7.2% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which is consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 6.7%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 0.4% and finished up by 8.6% for that year, which was congruent with election year bullishness although shy of magnitude standards. It was down by 12.3% in 2005’s post election year, which maintained congruency to the historical standards of losses. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. 2005 finished up by a mere 1.4%, which was an excellent year based on post election year historical standards. In 2006, it was up 4.8% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 4.2% at this time in 2007 with the Alan Greenspan scare but finished up that year by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. It was down 11.7% at this time last year. The NASDAQ finished down by 40.5% in 2008. That was contrarian performance to historical election year bullishness and the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

So far, this presidential post election year is performing consistently with historical standards. The capital markets understand socio-political influences are predominant in the first year of any new incoming administration and thus generally non-bullish. Politicians offer nothing pertinent to the quality of life, including health or wealth. They “talk about it” but just one RN offers more toward health and one good entrepreneur offers more toward wealth than the collection of all politicians, kings, queens, and dictators since the beginning of time. Those “control freaks” only talk and rob folks of their wealth and health.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

Most of the longer-term holdings of stocks and funds continue with “avoid” signals, but a few are still holding. The risk of continued holding, even for the likes of Apple, remains relaxed.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Short-term interest rates have moved north in six of the past twelve weeks. They were down this past week. As stated the past several weeks, the issue confronting the Fed is the threat of deflation from a souring economic environment, followed by hyperinflation, as the supply of printed money is increasing well beyond productive capacities. That will eventually lead to demand exceeding supply by significant amounts and thus leading to hyperinflation. The demand will be generated from both socio-economic extremes; the very rich and the very poor. The middle class will be caught in the squeeze. The middle class works for the rich and the rich are about to become less rich; go figure.

There is no change from the past fourteen weeks. Interest rates remain at record low levels. That normally fosters a bullish stock market. Unfortunately, souring economic conditions at an accelerating rate have reduced the normal bullish relationship of low interest rates as irrelevant. Although rates are low, the process of borrowing money is not a capitalistic relationship between borrower and seller and thus irrelevant to the capital markets. Government intervention is going to wreak havoc on the United States economy. Governments simply cannot perform due to their riskless and reckless decision-making of using everyone else’s money plus a printing press.

As stated the past few weeks, the idea of capitalisms is to borrow or capitalize and expanding the supply of money (wealth) through productive effort. That is not what is going on right now. Wealth creation will continue to slow and maybe even capsize. With that, there will be a reduction of the quality of life, which typically leads to war.

The U.S. economy is perceived to have the greatest chance of returning to robustness when compared to other countries. As stated the past twelve weeks, the exception to this is China, who may or may not need U.S. consumption to bolster their economy. A weakening dollar against the Yuan may enjoy a longer-term labor relationship with the West. However, the stock market is focused only on the next six to nine months.

As stated 27-weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental. You will see that prognosis continuing in spite of recent bullish expressions.

As stated 23-weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.”

As stated 19-weeks ago, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near expiration. Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from time to time, but the trend should remain bearish throughout this year and into 2010. Bullish spurts will occur from time to time. As we learned from the November 28, 2008 – January 21, 2009 bullish spurt, profit potential from them is limited and in some cases disappoint rather rapidly. The attempted spurt on Feb 6, 2009 faded quickly and expired on Feb 19, 2009. The short-term trader will trade on those spurts, which is occurring now, while mid-to-long-term investor should remain on the sidelines. Finally, the current spurt underway has potential for sustainability through April. So far, it has performed well.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 31.6% since that sell signal. It has been bearish in ten of the last 15-weeks. It was bullish last week.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is down 21.7% since the Midterm Indicant signaled sell on August 1, 2008. It has been solidly bearish the past three weeks.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 19.8% since that sell signal. It was also bearish last week, following four solid bullish weeks.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 31.9% since that sell signal. It has been bullish the past six weeks.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 49.6% since that sell signal and enjoyed bullishness the past few weeks, including last week.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 17.9% since that sell signal and bullish the past few weeks, but solidly bearish last week.

Following two weeks of solid bullishness, energy related funds were mixed last week. They have endured significant bearishness in 19 of the last 35-weeks, but significant bullishness in four of the last five weeks. The balance of supply and demand for oil appears to taking hold and with that, pricing stability.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on April 3, 2009. It is down 0.5% since then. The Quick-term Indicant continues to signal avoid since September 2, 2008. It is down 34.9% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 5.7% since that buy signal, annualizing at 16.1%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 26.0%. The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on April 3, 2009 as it fell below its bearish green curve with declining Vector Pressure. It is down 2.7% since the near-term sell signal.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on April 3, 2009 for the ten major indices. The ten major indices are up 2.8% since then annualizing at 146.3%. This “reluctant bull signal” was due to the strongly configuring near-term and quick-term bullish indicators. Do not be surprised at a bear signal once this short-term bullish cycle completes.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $25,886,497.

That beats buy and hold performance of $1,237,080 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $124,613. That beats buy and hold’s $85,180 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $167,090. That beats buy and hold’s $58,012 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1990.9%, 46.3%, and 189.4%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 6.5% since then. It is too risky to hold with the Near-term and threatening Quick-term bull cycle. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, current technical indicators are advising to avoid this fund until the Near-term bullish cycle expires.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 179.2% (annualized at 10.2%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 911-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning. However, the Long-term Indicant is getting very close to signaling bear. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Near-term bullish bias configured on March 31, 2009 with a solid bounce off of Blue. That attribute suggested this is not a short-term bullish spurt, but with a high probability of sustainability. Several indicators are moving north; Bullish Blue, Bearish Green, and Vector Pressure. Force Vector cycles are mature and continue hovering in bullish domains, which correlates to cyclical sustainability on a short-term basis. They can linger there for several more weeks before the Near-term Bull expires. There are several Quick-term Red Bulls, which mitigates dynamic bearish threats. It only takes one non-contrarian Red Bull to offer this obstinate resistance to bearish dominance.

As stated the past few days, this Near-term cycle appears bent on contacting the Quick-term Red and/or Yellow Curves and we are now seeing some of that. This is a common occurrence in bear markets. The Quick-term curves are sloping to the south, so it will not take much bullishness for this “technical achievement.” Once contact is made, dynamic bearishness usually follows. The breadth of contact remains minimal at this point. So, those laggards will be trying to catch up while those who have already done may rest for awhile. As long as those laggards are trying to achieve this end, the Near-term Bull will persist.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled bull for the eleven major indices on Mar 31, 2009 and bear for Contrarian VIX on the same day. The 11-major indices are up by an average of 9.4% since that bull signal. The VIX is down 23.2% since the bear signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bull for the S&P400-Mid-cap Index today (4/17/09). In addition to that bull signal, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for two other indices. They are up by an average of 0.4% since that bull signal an average of 0.4-weeks ago. The other nine major indices, including VIX, are down 30.5% since the QTI signaled bear an average of 34.2-weeks ago.

On-going attribute watch for major indices:

-QTI Red Bull Status—Quick-term bias favors bear. Last week, for the first time in several months, one of the major indexes crossed above it’s bullish red curve. It was the NASDAQ100. Since then two other indices produced the same attribute. There are now three Quick-term Red Bulls. Dynamic bearishness finds difficulty with these configurations.

-NTI Blue Bull Direction-This indicator is moving north, favoring the Near-term Bull. The Dow Utilities fell below last week, but still bullishly configured by the short-term indicators (vector pressure and force vectors). Utilities is the weakest Near-term bull. The DJIA is weakening a bit. This lack of sector breadth suggests this cycle will be limited to a near-term bull and not a longer lasting quick-term bull.

-NTI Green Bear Direction – Moving north; non-bearish. If and when they pass buy prices, that is an excellent position for setting stop losses. It is usually better to set stop losses at a dollar or two below the bearish green price. Green will rise very rapidly facilitating this tactic. This helps prevent stopping out. Prices falling below bearish green are too risky for holding on a near-term basis, but that is not the case right now.

-STI Force Vector Position- Most remain deep inside bullish domains. Aberrant behavior in bullish domains suggests bullish support on a short-term basis when other Near-term Indicators are favoring the bull. This is strongly bullish on a short-term and near-term basis.

-STI Force Vector Direction – Their recent abnormal southerly movement is not supportive of the bear. A few dipped south, but non-threatening to the Near-term bull, as this turning and twisting is well inside bullish domains.

-Vector Pressure Position- Short-term bearish bias concluded on Mar 24, 2009. None are in bearish domains.

-Tangential Protection - None of the 11-major indices possess this attribute.

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators aborted robust behavior on Mar 31, 2009. As stated since then, they appear to have pinnacled, which suggests stock market stability. As sated since then, volatility should wane, which favors the underlying cyclicality of directional intensity. That is bullish on a near-term basis. That has occurred and should continue to do so, as long as the indicators remain as they are. The lethargic pattern, although supportive of stability, suggests this is not a fundamental long-term bull market. However, enjoy the near-term bull until it expires.

Short-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 10.1%, annualizing at 203.5% since their buy signals an average of 2.6-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four ETF’s. They are down by an average of 4.3% since their sell signals an average of 3.4-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.

In addition to the buy signal, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for nine ETF’s. They are up an average of 43.0% since their buy signals an average of 8.2-weeks ago. 21-ETF’s are down by an average of 32.2% since their sell signals an average of 35.1-weeks ago.

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Apr 17, 2009-Fri-Same as most of this past week. The near-term bull is a bit lazy, but solid. Apr 16, 2009-Thu-Same as yesterday. Additionally Quick-term Red Bulls are offering non-bearish support. Apr 15, 2009-Wed-Same as yesterday. The near-term bull remains solid. Apr 14, 2009-Tue-As long as bullish blue continues to rise, the Near-term Bull remains in tact. When that curve collapses, you will know the bear is assaulting with some success. As long as Force Vectors remain above bearish domains, the Short-term Indicant will be providing the Near-term Bull support. When prices fall below bearish green and Force Vectors fall into bearish domains, you will know the Near-term Bull is expiring. This should occur sometimes in May or early June, based on current configurations. Apr 13, 2009-Mon-Nearly all hold positions are safe with the increasing numbers of Quick-term Red Bulls. Any bearish expressions will be mere profit taking. The Near-term Bull is solid for the time being. Apr 9, 2009-Thu- Nothing new; today’s bullish aggression consistent with configurations.

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 12.8% since then. Its configuration is similar to VIX, but the math of double downs is sometimes distorting. It, along with VIX, is poised for a bullish cycle, but they can both linger for several more weeks by scraping along the edge of bearish domains. Recent behavior suggests they are comfortable laying in bearish domains, while they contemplate their next attack on the near-term bull.

ETF#03-Natural Resources - This ETF is down 34.9% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on September 2, 2008.

As previously stated, the Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until Vector Pressure is positive and Yellow Bear expires.

Force Vector jumped north on Apr 3 and the Near-term Indicant signaled buy. It is down .5% since this Near-term Bull signal. The near-term bullish attributes remain solid.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 5.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. It is annualized growth is at 16.1% since then. The model’s intent is to beat buy and hold. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position. As stated the past several days, this fund is weakening in its bullish aspirations. Its reaction to yellow interaction will be interesting. Young bulls typically have to encounter bearish yellow a few times before maturing into adulthood (2-years old). Sometimes they expire with that interaction; sometimes they move onward to the north for bullish actualization. The Near-term Indicant will help identify which direction should unfold.

ETF#14-Long Government is down 1.0% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Apr 7, 2009. Although it’s Vector Pressure remains positioned to support bullish behavior, and very much so, its Force Vector remains bearish domains and its price remains below bullish blue. Its normal contrarian behavior has been inconsistent recently. As volatility wanes, this ETF may languish for several more days. Right now, the Near-term Indicant is signaling avoidance of this ETF based on bearish domain Force Vector and depressed/flat Vector Pressure. A key attribute to monitor is its bullish Near-term Blue curve. If it collapses, it could take several more days and possible weeks for this fund to exhibit sustainable bullish behavior. It is very near collapsing, but so far has not done so.

We’re continuing to hold unless it becomes a Yellow Bear, as the Quick-term Indicant’s goal is to simply beat buy and hold. It is up 14.9% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on June 24, 2008 and annualizing at 18.1%.

Major ETF Events Today

There were no major events today, other than observing the strength of the Near-term Bull, which remains solid.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Bullish divergence occurred last week with solid bullish performance in most sectors, but not all of them. Energy was mixed, along with other commodities. This follows four consecutive weeks of bullish convergence and two consecutive weeks of bullish divergence. This is a powerful bullish attribute. However, the equally powerful bearish configurations still carries more weight than this recent bullishness.

Obviations of sustainable bullishness do not occur until there are four consecutive weeks of bullish convergence. That occurred three weeks ago. We now have a bullish cycle underway that has sustainability; as least through the month of April.

Indicant Conclusion

Those funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant are down by an average of 31.4% since their sell signals an average of 43.9-weeks ago. Although the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models are holding a few of the ETF’s, the Mid-term Indicant will not signal buy for most of the Mutual Funds until they remove themselves from bearish domains. Current configurations suggest it could be a year or longer for that to occur. Although the Near-term Bull has been impressive, it has not shifted the funds to a buy position.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

04/19/09

April 12, 2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 4, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

This Week’s Report

To See What Is Not

During years before after the turn of the 19^th century, Henry Ford and his wife, Clara, tinkered with building cars, sometimes late into the evenings. They amassed a great fortune. Henry was famous for disliking overhead. His firm, Ford Motor Company, enjoyed many years of fortune building without accountants and even an audit. He once fired the entire accounting department, but Edsel rehired them.

After the accountants showed up, lawyers and other overhead folks arrived. Soon after, the politicians showed up; mostly supporting the large block of union voters. Overhead or those with a penchant to work in abstracts always follow the producer of physical objects. The producer is first and overhead is second. The producer can exist without the overhead, while the opposite is not possible. But in today’s world, the overhead gets all of the attention and especially for those who have a gift to articulate well. An outstanding orator means absolutely nothing to wealth creation. In fact, as Joseph Stalin demonstrated, wealth destruction can evolve.

Modern-day politicians serve no real purpose for anything, except destruction. They are not of the people. They are from the abstract elite. There are some exceptions with a few MD’s in Congress. Those doctors have engaged with physical objects (people) and thus their thinking should not be upside down and twisted. The only concern about those fine people is whether they can fend off the corruption in Washington D.C.

When Ford, GM, and Chrysler felt threatened by the Tucker Torpedo in 1947, the politicians and other shady characters set out to destroy Tucker, who had his manufacturing plant in Chicago, as opposed to the Detroit area. They succeeded, but universal law does not allow continuing success for the cheaters. Their kids and grandkids are paying the price for their cheating ways in the late 1940’s.

By the late 1960’s and early 1970’s, the Japanese started importing cars into the U.S. as Henry Ford, Walter Chrysler, and Alfred P. Sloan were either retired or dead. Two of those three great leaders had calloused hands from direct physical object creation. Alfred P. was more of the manager type, but there is little doubt he could physically engage in the production of a physical object. He understood every detail about the product.

After those three great men passed, the “overhead” took over and in a big way. Now, we can see why Henry did not like it. They are abstract object creators. They did not add direct value to their industry. As you can now see, their influence has been negative. To make matters worse, politicians are now engaged in the auto industry. It is only a matter of time before the wheels wobble, regardless if the power train is a V-8 internal combustion engine or a battery powered vehicle.

Years ago, in Stephenville, Texas, an MD gave a speech about South Africa. He stated that in the late 1800’s and early 1900’s, South Africa’s population consisted mostly of farmers. There were very few other people populating that country before the wealth was created. The doctor was somewhat bitter about the bad reputation South Africa was enduring based on biased press reporting. The MD was a native of South Africa. He was dismayed about how the press was incapable of broad and accurate perspectives. This is a case of not seeing what has already been. Flat earth thinking persists.

During the next one-hundred years, as South Africa’s economy expanded with wealth producing activities of agriculture, extraction, and some manufacturing, the population exploded. Immigrants moved into country as the wealth expanded. Many of those immigrants had nothing to do with the wealth creation, but they hoped to share in it. There is nothing wrong with that unless those immigrants restrict themselves to economic overhead. Unfortunately, most became economic overhead elements. Civil unrest developed and the country suffered for many years. The producers were targeted as somehow evil by the press and politicians from around the world, while the non-productive, who moved into that country, were identified as victims.

Very few people can see what is not. Most only see what is. Unfortunately, most can only see to the end of their noses, suggesting they know nothing of the past or the future. Henry Ford could see a car for every family before there was one. A few others could also possibly see what is not, but only a handful of people are capable of actually producing the physical object that had never been produced before.

Contemporary policies in the U.S. are illustrating that critical mass of non-producers is near, similar to South Africa in the 1980’s. A recent poll shows that only 53% of Americans believe capitalism is better than socialism. That is dangerously close to being a minority. Those 47% idiots will only learn of their errant thinking, as they stand in line for Vodka to help dampen their pathetic souls. They cannot project their demise.

One can rest assured that once the line is crossed where “economic overhead” becomes the majority, civil strife will soon follow in the U.S. The principle here is simple; maybe too simple for intellectual elaboration. The principle is that demand for physical objects will exceed supply. The increasing numbers of “the deprived” will not understand. When the production of I-Pods, Blackberries, and other physical objects of appeal began to slow, many will not have them. They will feel deprived, sort of like Castro did, and attempt to take. As history shows, in the end, there is always little left to take.

The idiots not believing in capitalism cannot see what is not. They cannot see more in the streets and homeless. They cannot see their quality of life deteriorate. They cannot see long lines at the doctor’s office. They will be queued up behind all those hypochondriacs cluttering up the health care systems because of the perception of it being free. Nothing of any value can or should be free. Many will die, while the doctor is prescribing some placebo to those who are not actually sick.

Politicians love talking about healthcare. They see the potential for a huge block of votes, knowing that nearly everyone has a health problem at one time or another. Politicians do not understand the biology that causes healthcare problems. Politicians are like the accountants that Henry Ford did not like. They did not know how to build parts for cars and therefore useless as Henry must have reasoned. The same is true for politicians who would not know how to remove a bad appendix.

The economy is souring due to political intervention. To make matters worse, politicians are gaining momentum on protecting and adding votes in “economic overhead.” That will swell overhead rates. That will lead to greater economic deterioration. That leads to civil unrest. Some early signs are showing up now in the headlines. It is just the beginning and a few years from now, many may figure out the real meaning in the U.S. Constitution and the Bill of Rights.

In spite of all that, we have enjoyed four consecutive weeks of bullish convergence and one week of bullish divergence. That is bullish. Keep in mind this is not the first time this phenomenon has occurred. There will be a bearish response to that, depending on corporate earnings. That will be influenced on how the public around the world treats their politicians. If incumbents are supported, this bear will last for years. If the public around the world were to increase employment turnover at greater velocities in the political community, then economic prosperity will parallel that velocity.

High turnover is typically a bad thing in the private sector. However, it is a good thing in the political public sector. It mitigates corruption. Power corrupts and as long as political turnover is low, that power swells and eventually crushes the quality of life for all.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals. There have been 540-sell signals since October 26, 2007 and 38-buy signals since October 31, 2008.

Although there were no buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for only 21 of the 344-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 116.8%. That annualizes to 64.4%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 21-stocks and funds for an average of 94.4-weeks.

Although there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 323-stocks and funds of the 344- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 32.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 44.6-weeks ago.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding all 100-Mutual Funds tracked by the Indicant, excluding the 31-ETF’s tracked daily. The Mid-term Indicant tracked funds are down an average of 32.5% since their sell signals an average of 42.9-weeks ago. The 31-ETF’s trade more frequently and are updated in the daily stock market report.

One year ago, on Apr 11, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 203-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 121.0-weeks. They were up by an average of 130.7% (annualized at 56.2%). There were 137-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 20.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 26.3-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 281-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Apr 13, 2007. They were up by an average of 124.0% (annualized at 63.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 102.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 62-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 5.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 14.2-weeks earlier.

There were 281-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 14, 2006 since their buy signals an average of 97.3-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 130.5% (annualized at 69.7%). There were 87-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 7.6% from their respective sell signals an average of 20.7-weeks earlier.

On Apr 15, 2005, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 209-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 88.6% (annualized at 55.5%) since their buy signals an average of 83.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 87-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 31.5% since their sell signals an average of 53.0-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Apr 17, 2004, there were 266-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 69.6% (annualized at 74.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 48.9-weeks earlier. There were only 19-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 28.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 42.5-weeks earlier.

On Apr 19, 2003, there were 226-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 25.5%, annualizing at 84.1%. There were 42-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 26.6% since their sell signals an average of 27.2-weeks earlier. There were 119-buy signals on Mar 22, 2003, which was the beginning of a nice Mid-term Bull Leg that lasted through that year. Most continued to hold through the meandering bear of 2004 and early 2005. Several did not receive sell signals until late 2007 and early 2008 since those March 2003 buy signals.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

All updated information can be accessed from the following link. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 10.9% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 48.3% and the S&P500 is up 10.3% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 45.3% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. Interestingly, the NASDAQ100 is up 66.0% since October 9, 2002, which is more than the other indices. RIMM, Apple, and a few others who have strongly performed are the primary contributors. Now, the current economic environment is challenging them.

The Dow is down 42.9% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 42.2% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is down 45.3% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007.

The NASDAQ is down 67.3% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 43.9% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 31.0% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

As socialism increases, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050. Even that depends on resurgence in entrepreneurialism and related capitalism. Politicians screwed up the economy and the majority apparently believes their proposed fixes. Yes, the masses, for the most part, are weak and stupid. It just depends on what critical mass believes the lies and what critical mass keeps moving forward with capitalism. There is always a chance that “Steven Jobs-like” creativity in product development and successful marketing may lead to economic benefits, in spite of governmental interference. There are hundreds of more potential creators in China, where U.S. politicians cannot squelch them. In about twenty years, a war between China and the U.S. would be China’s victory, as money funnels from government printing presses to insurance and bankers; those are abstract folks that have no idea how to build a weapon (or anything for that matter).

The Dow is down 7.9% so far this year. The NASDAQ is up 4.8% so far this year. Keep in mind the post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since 1832. So far, the stock market is conforming to this historical standard, but the NASDAQ is arguing right now with that standard.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 25.0% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%., which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 9.4% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which is consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 2.3%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 2.5% and finished up by 8.6% for that year, which was congruent with election year bullishness although shy of magnitude standards. It was down by 8.1% in 2005’s post election year, which maintained congruency to the historical standards of losses. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. 2005 finished up by a mere 1.4%, which was an excellent year based on post election year historical standards. In 2006, it was up 5.8% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 2.6% at this time in 2007 with the Alan Greenspan scare but finished up that year by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. It was down 11.3% at this time last year. The NASDAQ finished down by 40.5% in 2008. That was contrarian performance to historical election year bullishness and the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

So far, this presidential post election year is performing consistently with historical standards. The capital markets understand socio-political influences are predominant in the first year of any new incoming administration and thus generally non-bullish. Politicians offer nothing pertinent to the quality of life, including health or wealth. They “talk about it” but just one RN offers more toward health and one good entrepreneur offers more toward wealth than the collection of all politicians, kings, queens, and dictators since the beginning of time. Those “control freaks” only talk and rob folks of their wealth and health.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

Most of the longer-term holdings of stocks and funds continue with “avoid” signals, but a few are still holding. The risk of continued holding, even for the likes of Apple, has relaxed in risks with respect to the risk of continued holding.

If you feel you will need cash within the next two years, you should consider selling all stocks. (The Indicant is not signaling hold for any mutual funds, including those that short the market at this time). The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models participate in bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant is more focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data, which remains bearish.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Short-term interest rates have moved north in six of the past eleven weeks. They were down this past week. As stated the past several weeks, the issue confronting the Fed is the threat of deflation from a souring economic environment, followed by hyperinflation, as the supply of printed money is increasing well beyond productive capacities. That will eventually lead to demand exceeding supply by significant amounts and thus leading to hyperinflation. The demand will be generated from both socio-economic extremes; the very rich and the very poor. The middle class will be caught in the squeeze. The middle class works for the rich and the rich are about to become less rich; go figure.

As stated last week, the problem with the devolving economy is that those buying goods and services are not producers. Although some of the very rich are highly productive, they are too few in numbers to offset the increasingly higher number of the lazy poor-“give-me” generation. That will further depress the supply side, thereby adding socioeconomic problems in addition to the inflationary threats. The political structure is shortsighted on vote getting. Without strategic vision or for that matter, capability, political leaders endure their psychological problems and with that, wealth destruction by them continues.

There is no change from the past thirteen weeks. Interest rates remain at record low levels. That normally fosters a bullish stock market. Unfortunately, souring economic conditions at an accelerating rate have reduced the normal bullish relationship of low interest rates as irrelevant. Although rates are low, the process of borrowing money is not a capitalistic relationship between borrower and seller and thus irrelevant to the capital markets. Government intervention is going to wreak havoc on the United States economy. Governments simply cannot perform due to their riskless and reckless decision-making of using everyone else’s money plus a printing press.

As stated the past few weeks, the idea of capitalisms is to borrow or capitalize and expanding the supply of money through productive effort. That is not what is going on right now. Wealth creation will continue to slow and maybe even capsize. With that, there will be a reduction of the quality of life, which typically leads to war.

The U.S. dollar is enduring some resistances in strengthening its bullish cycle. The dollar’s significance as an international currency is now under attack by the Chinese, who will eventually become the economic world power. The United States has been weakened severely by its tyranny by the majority and excessive focus on socio-economic programs that have absolutely nothing to do with cultural strength and economic wealth. The printing presses and “politburo style politics” in the U.S. will reduce the dollar to just another world currency.

The U.S. economy is perceived to have the greatest chance of returning to robustness when compared to other countries. As stated the past eleven weeks, the exception to this is China, who may or may not need U.S. consumption to bolster their economy. A weakening dollar against the Yuan may enjoy a longer-term labor relationship with the West. However, the stock market is focused only on the next six to nine months.

Gold is an exception. It remains too risky to sell on a Quick-term basis, even though it is now being avoided on a near-term basis. Longer-term hold positions are okay. Its strength is a testament to the fear elements inherent in the economy. Economic conditions will be fostering the “hate element” of humanity. Keep your eye on the daily report as gold appears nearing a cyclical peak on a short-term basis, but fundamentally remains a solid hold.

As stated 26-weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental. You will see that prognosis continuing in spite of recent bullish expressions.

As stated 22-weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.”

As stated 18-weeks ago, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near expiration. Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from time to time, but the trend should remain bearish throughout this year and into 2010. Bullish spurts will occur from time to time. As we learned from the November 28, 2008 – January 21, 2009 bullish spurt, profit potential from them is limited and in some cases disappoint rather rapidly. The attempted spurt on Feb 6, 2009 faded quickly and expired on Feb 19, 2009. The short-term trader will trade on those spurts, which is occurring now, while mid-to-long-term investor should remain on the sidelines. Finally, the current spurt underway has potential for sustainability through April.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 33.3% since that sell signal. It has been bearish in ten of the last 14-weeks. It was mildly bearish last week.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is down 17.1% since the Midterm Indicant signaled sell on August 1, 2008. It was solidly bearish the past two weeks.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 20.1% since that sell signal. It was also bearish last week, following four solid bullish weeks.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 35.9% since that sell signal. It has been bullish the past five weeks.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 51.5% since that sell signal and enjoyed bullishness the past few weeks, but was mildly bearish this past week.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 20.5% since that sell signal and bullish the past few weeks.

Energy related funds were solidly bullish the past two weeks. They have endured significant bearishness in 19 of the last 34-weeks, but significant bullishness the past four weeks. The balance of supply and demand for oil appears to taking hold and with that, pricing stability.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on April 3, 2009. It is down 0.9% since then. The Quick-term Indicant continues to signal avoid since September 2, 2008. It is down 35.2% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 7.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 21.2%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 26.0%. The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on April 3, 2009 as it fell below its bearish green curve with declining Vector Pressure. It is down 1.5% since the near-term sell signal.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on April 3, 2009 for the ten major indices. This is due to the strongly configuring near-term and quick-term bullish indicators. Do not be surprised at a bear signal once this short-term bullish cycle completes.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $25,713,963.

That beats buy and hold performance of $1,229,785 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $122,745. That beats buy and hold’s $83,902 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $165,848. That beats buy and hold’s $57,300 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1990.9%, 46.3%, and 189.4%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 4.2% since then. It is too risky to hold with the Near-term and threatening Quick-term bull cycle. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, current technical indicators are advising to avoid this fund until the Near-term bullish cycle expires.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 179.2% (annualized at 10.2%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 910-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning. However, the Long-term Indicant is getting very close to signaling bear. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Near-term bullish bias configured on March 31, 2009 with a solid bounce off bullish Blue. That attribute suggested this is not a short-term bullish spurt. Several indicators are moving north; Bullish Blue, Bearish Green, and Vector Pressure. Bearish Force Vector cycles are now mature and many continue hovering in bullish domains, which correlates to cyclical sustainability on a short-term basis. They can linger there for several more weeks before the Near-term Bull expires. There are several Quick-term Red Bulls, which mitigates dynamic bearish threats. It only takes one non-contrarian Red Bull to do this.

Keep in mind, this Near-term Bull is fighting the trend, which is bearish. The Quick-term bearish yellow and red curves continue moving south. Recent Red Bulls are now challenging this trend.

As stated the past few days, this Near-term cycle appears bent on contacting the Quick-term Red and/or Yellow Curves and we are now seeing some of that. This is a common occurrence in bear markets. The Quick-term curves are sloping to the south, so it will not take much bullishness for this “technical achievement.” Once contact is made, dynamic bearishness usually follows. The breadth of contact remains minimal at this point. So, those laggards will be trying to catch up while those who have already done it will most likely rest for awhile. As long as those laggards are trying to achieve this end, the Near-term Bull will persist.

The focal point will be on Force Vectors interaction with Vector Pressure. The Near-term Bull does not want to see Force Vectors move solidly to the south into bearish domains. When Force Vectors cross into bearish domains and prices fall below bearish green, you will know that Near-term Bull will be expiring. That should be several weeks from now, but it can change quickly.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled bull for the eleven major indices on Mar 31, 2009 and bear for Contrarian VIX on the same day. The 11-major indices are up by an average of 7.8% since that bull signal. The VIX is down 17.3% since the bear signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled one new bull today. It is the NASDAQ100. It is the first Quick-term bull since mid-last year. The other 10-major indices are down 33.7% since the QTI signaled bear an average of 36.1-weeks ago. Contrarian VIX is up 62.3% since the QTI bull signal 36.1-weeks ago. Although its configuration remains poised for bullish behavior, it is no longer dormant and reacting appropriate for stock market near-term bullish sustainability.

On-going attribute watch for major indices:

-QTI Red Bull Status—Quick-term bias favors bear. Last week, for the first time in several months, one of the major indexes crossed above it’s bullish red curve. It was the NASDAQ100. It received a Quick-term Bull signal; the first since last September.

QTI Yellow Bear Status-Quick-term bias favors bear. All major indices are yellow bears. Quick-term yellow bears offer no resistance level to falling stock prices. Contrarian VIX is not a yellow bear; at least not yet.

-NTI Blue Bull Direction-This indicator is moving north, favoring the Near-term Bull. The Dow Utilities fell below last Monday, but still bullishly configured by the short-term indicators (vector pressure and force vectors).

-NTI Green Bear Direction – Moving north; non-bearish. If and when they pass buy prices, that is an excellent position for setting stop losses. It is usually better to set stop losses at a dollar or two below the bearish green price. Green will rise very rapidly facilitating this tactic. This helps prevent stopping out. Prices falling below bearish green are too risky for holding, but that is not the case right now.

-Vector Pressure Position- Short-term bearish bias concluded on Mar 24, 2009. None are in bearish domains.

-Vector Pressure Direction –Short-term bearish bias concluded on Mar 21, 2009. They continue moving in support of the bull. Technical data (increasingly bullish) and fundamental data (long-term bearishness) are in conflict. But the Short-term trend from Vector Pressure is always insensitive to any argument, regardless of any corporate or economic fundamental logic.

-Tangential Protection - None of the 11-major indices possess this attribute.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection - Construction will begin up the expiration of the current Near-term Bullish cycle now underway. It will identify a future lower trading range upon completion of its construction. It is 100% accurate in predicting this future phenomenon. In other words, after this bullish cycle completes, another bearish cycle will follow. Depending on breadth and bullish magnitude of the impending bullish cycle, do not be surprised at a 5,000 or lower Dow by August/September. This should lead to a 3,000 Dow just ahead of the mid-term election year in 2010. Of course, keep in mind, the Indicant does not officially forecast. Fundamentally, either inflation or deflation always favors the bear. Right now, the additive values of interest rates to the absolute value of inflation/deflation is okay (not supportive of the bear).

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators abated robust behavior on Mar 31, 2009. As stated since then, they appear to have pinnacled, which suggests stock market stability. Volatility for the next few weeks should wane, which favors the underlying cyclicality of directional intensity. That is bullish on a near-term basis. Last Tuesday’s bearishness was not accompanied with significant volume and bullish response yesterday. That suggests limited volatility and continued steadiness in this near-term bull. However, today’s bullish aggression was accompanied with strong volume, suggesting a lazy bull may be out of order in favor of more aggression.

Short-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 8.2%, annualizing at 295.0% since their buy signals an average of 1.4-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four ETF’s. They are down by an average of 2.9% since their sell signals an average of 2.3-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated two buy signals and no sell signals.

In addition to the buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for seven ETF’s. They are up an average of 36.8% since their buy signals an average of 9.1-weeks ago. 22-ETF’s are down 33.0% since their sell signals an average of 33.9-weeks ago.

The recently new Quick-term Red Bulls significantly reduces the threat of dynamic bearish behavior. That attribute has not been enjoyed since early 2008.

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant –Apr 9, 2009-Thu- Nothing new; today’s bullish aggression consistent with configurations. Apr 8, 2009-Wed-Nothing new; today’s mild bullishness is consistent with a steadying Near-term bull. Apr 7, 2009-Tue-Same as yesterday. Today’s bearish behavior is not threatening to the Near-term Bull. Strategy is same as yesterday. Apr 6, 2009-Mon-As long as the major indices and ETF’s remain above the Near-term bullish blue curve, dynamic bearishness cannot occur. Once prices fall below bullish blue, one should consider buying call options. Once the green curve passes above your buy-price, set stop losses equal to green minus a few cents; maybe a dollar. This Near-term Bull is solid with no threat of dynamic bearish surprises. Finally, one more Quick-term Red Bull was born today, adding misery to the bear. Miserable bears cannot muster up tenacity. Apr 3, 2009-Fri-This is the same as the past two days, except there are now three Quick-term Red Bulls. That supports a “relaxed and enjoy” attitude toward bullish sentiment. Keep in mind, this Near-term Bull is fighting the bearish trend, but those three Red Bulls will be attempting to adjust the longer Quick-term trend.

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 10.6% since then. Its configuration is similar to VIX, but the math of double downs is sometimes distorting. It, along with VIX, is poised for a bullish cycle, but they can both linger for several more weeks by scraping along the edge of bearish domains.

ETF#03-Natural Resources - This ETF is down 35.2% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on September 2, 2008.

As previously stated, the Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until Vector Pressure is positive and Yellow Bear expires.

Force Vector jumped north on Apr 3 and the Near-term Indicant signaled buy. It is down 0.9% since the Near-term Bull signal. The near-term bullish attributes remain solid.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 7.0% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. It is annualized growth is at 21.2% since then. The model’s intent is to beat buy and hold. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Apr 3, 2009 for GLD. It fell below green, Force Vectors fell into bearish domains, and Vector Pressure is continuing its shift to the south. It is down 1.5% since that sell signal. Its reaction to yellow interaction will be interesting. Young bulls typically have to encounter bearish yellow a few times before maturing into adulthood (2-years old). Sometimes they expire with that interaction; sometimes they move onward to the north for bullish actualization.

ETF#14-Long Government is down 0.4% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Apr 7, 2009. Although it’s Vector Pressure remains positioned to support bullish behavior and very much so, its Force Vector dipped into bearish domains and its price dipped below bullish blue. It has not been very contrarian the past few days, as it has participated in bullish behavior with the market’s bullish behavior and vice versus. Today, though, it behaved as contrarian funds should as it was down while the market was up. As volatility wanes, this ETF may languish for several more days. Right now, the Near-term Indicant is signaling avoidance of this ETF.

We’re continuing to hold unless it becomes a Yellow Bear, as the Quick-term Indicant’s goal is to simply beat buy and hold. It is up 15.6% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on June 24, 2008 and annualizing at 19.5%.

Major ETF Events Today

Most ETF’s and indices are responding bullishly to interactions with Near-term bullish blue curves and Force Vectors continue rising. That supports bullishness on a near-term basis.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Bullish divergence occurred last week with solid bullish performance in most sectors, but not all of them. Energy was mildly bearish. This follows four consecutive weeks of bullish convergence. This is a powerful expression in response to the previously powerful bearish expressions, which still carries more weight than this recent bullishness.

Obviations of sustainable bullishness do not occur until there are four consecutive weeks of bullish convergence. That occurred two weeks ago. We now have a bullish cycle underway that has sustainability; as least through the month of April.

Indicant Conclusion

Those funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant are down by an average of 32.5% since their sell signals an average of 43.0-weeks ago. Although the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models are holding a few of the ETF’s, the Mid-term Indicant will not signal buy for most of the Mutual Funds until they remove themselves from bearish domains. Current configurations suggest it could be a year or longer for that to occur. Although the Near-term Bull has been impressive, it has not shifted the funds to a buy position.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

04/12/09

April 5, 2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

This Week’s Report

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and RIMM

Research in Motion Limited posted significantly better than expected earnings for its most recent quarter. As you know, the stock market “anticipated” that sort of news with dynamic bullish behavior, beginning in mid-March. Its stock price propelled to the north before the news and after the news of this profound corporate result.

Research in Motion Limited, with the symbol RIMM, is the producer of the Blackberry phone. The phone is obviously a successful product. Any bonuses paid to RIMM employees for their tremendous success is warranted. The decision to pay bonuses at the company rests with shareholders, directors, and corporate officers.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac employees are also receiving bonuses. They are not deserved since those two institutions are failures. They should not even exist, as they are a by-product of politburo politics. The government appointed overseer of Fannie Mae, Herb Allison, has vowed to protect the bonuses of Fannie Mae employees. Since Mr. Allison is not using his money and using yours…..well, the thievery should be obvious. This risk to Mr. Allison is zero, which is always the case from government employees.

James Lockhart, the government regulator of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, was recently quoted as saying, “those bonuses are an important defense of employee attrition.”

Here is how James Lockhart and Herb Allison are idiots and part of the massive thievery by the Federal Government and politicians. It is very simple. 1) With the high unemployment, one does not have to worry about employee attrition. Where would the employees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac go find employment? Not too many organizations are hiring at this time. 2) Even if unemployment were not high, it is difficult for employees of failed organizations to find a job elsewhere. Not too many want “hirelings” from failed organizations on their payrolls.

The employee attrition argument is phony and only the stupid believe it. Now that that set of logic is purely out of the way, one has to ask, why the phoniness? Who do these two low-effort, riskless decision makers work for? Answer: The government. The government works for the politicians. Who are major contributors to political campaign funds? Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are major contributors to the campaign funds of politicians.

With that, do you think politicians and those two puppets, Lockhart and Allison, will not use your tax dollars to pay employees at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonuses? The answer, of course is “no.” That is shrouded into the basic instinct of all animalistic organisms called, self-preservation.

The scam works this way. Dollars move from you to the government to the employees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the politicians, who will use those funds to “outspend” any political opponent. With that, this is not a government of the people, by the people, for the people. One could argue that it is a government of the banks, for the politicians, by the dumb.

What does this have to do with the stock market? First, one must understand a small section from the study of biology. That is, all leaches eventually kill their host. The host, in this case is not an analogy. It is real. The host is you; the taxpayer.

As stated many times, wealth is created in only three ways; manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae do not do any of those three things. Therefore, they are also members of the leech element of society, along with all “professional” politicians.

As the printing presses continue to run, income taxes collected from RIMM’s profits will be somewhat supportive, even though RIMM is not an American company; it is Canadian. RIMM is not a leech. They “manufacture” phones. RIMM enjoyed a tremendous accidental marketing break and one that was probably free. When President Barack Obama resisted giving up his personal Blackberry shortly after being elected, one can imagine how Blackberry sales increased. Let’s hope that the president was not remunerated for this profound marketing gig for RIMM.

Such shallow marketing will be short-lived. Blackberry sales will eventually slide, as there will be fewer people who can afford them.

RIMM’s profits were indeed impressive, but do not expect that continue. That little marketing blip by the president will not deliver sustainability to RIMM”s bottom line. As a matter of fact, as the popularity of the president wanes, Apple’s I-Phone may be the preferred product or better yet, Samsung’s Blackjack. Presidential popularity is tied to the pocket book of the American voter.

All that fake money will eventually weaken the U.S. dollar. Millions have lost their jobs. Millions have watched their 401K’s plummet. To add salt into an open wound, the government is going to weaken the purchasing power of what little folks have left to spend with their inflationary mentality. The U.S. dollar is losing international prestige, as its representation of capitalistic endeavor is being replaced by social ideology, which does not create wealth.

Productivity increases is the sole proviso to increasing the quality of life; nothing else does this. Now that those with limited industriousness are being favored by political leadership, rest assured that productivity increases in the United States will slow. With that, along with the printing presses of greenback production, inflation will be unavoidable. With that, the quality of life for many will deteriorate.

Deflation may be the hot topic on the immediate horizon, as millions cannot buy very much and thus prices will move south. At some future point though, inflation will become the bigger problem. It does not matter to the stock market, which is which; the bear dominates, regardless if the issue is deflation or inflation. The additive sum of the absolute value of inflation/deflation and interest rates exceeding eight percent correlates to strong bear markets. Right now, those numbers are not favorable to the bear, while the stock market is bearish. Current bearishness is a function of reduced profitability. The bear will expand its dominance when those additive sums kick in.

Along the way, the leeches will continue to circulate that money from taxpayer to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to campaign coffers for as long as they can for self-preservation purposes. Unfortunately, the nature of leeches does not possess a strategic view of what they are doing to their host; they simply kill it. That is the only thing a leech can do. Eventually, the leech also dies. In this case, there is no other host to latch onto.

With all that, enjoy the current bear market rally. As the short-term, quick-term, and near-term models are suggesting, this bullish spurt has the potential for significant sustainability (about five to ten more weeks).

RIMM’s lucky marketing success, with support from Barack Obama, will turn out as all luck does; some good and some bad. In the meantime, it is hoped that RIMM employees receive bonuses. It took a tremendous amount of hard work to “manufacture” the phones, get them shipped, and collect the money.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac employees did nothing toward the contribution of wealth creation. Employees at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are keeping their jobs at a time when no one else would consider them for employment. You are paying their bonuses and directly funding campaign expenses for those who you may not wish to support in the mid-term elections of 2010.

With all that, this bear market is not over. It is one of the hosts and it is also being destroyed by the leeches.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal. There have been 539-sell signals since October 26, 2007 and 38-buy signals since October 31, 2008.

Although there were no buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for only 21 of the 344-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 115.4%. That annualizes to 64.0%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 21-stocks and funds for an average of 93.8-weeks.

In addition to the sell signal, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 322-stocks and funds of the 344- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 33.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 43.7-weeks ago.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding all 100-Mutual Funds tracked by the Indicant, excluding the 31-ETF’s tracked daily. The funds are down an average of 33.8% since their sell signals an average of 42.4-weeks ago. The 31-ETF’s trade more frequently and are updated in the daily stock market report.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for contrarian MF#22-USPIX Ultra Short this past weekend. It has been a typical post election year fund to hold, as it moves up while the market moves down. This sell signal was a reluctant one. The NASDAQ100 crossed above its bullish red curve this past Friday, which is a significant threat to any “bearish” holdings. Historical standards should return, but the bullish threat to this bearish fund is with too much risk at this time.

One year ago, on Apr 4, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 202-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 121.9-weeks. They were up by an average of 138.4% (annualized at 59.0%). There were 138-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 18.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 25.2-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 273-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Apr 6, 2007. They were up by an average of 125.8% (annualized at 61.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of 103.7-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 62-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 5.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 13.4-weeks earlier.

There were 281-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 7, 2006 since their buy signals an average of 99.4-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 127.9% (annualized at 66.9%). There were 61-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 7.7% from their respective sell signals an average of 21.6-weeks earlier.

On Apr 8, 2005, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 230-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 88.8% (annualized at 59.6%) since their buy signals an average of 77.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 88-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 28.8% since their sell signals an average of 52.8-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Apr 10, 2004, there were 275-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 71.0% (annualized at 78.4%) since their respective buy signals an average of 47.1-weeks earlier. There were only 21-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 28.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 41.3-weeks earlier.

On Apr 12, 2003, there were 222-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 21.4%, annualizing at 74.3%. There were 49-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 17.5% since their sell signals an average of 16.0-weeks earlier. There were 119-buy signals on Mar 22, 2003, which was the beginning of a nice Mid-term Bull Leg that lasted through that year. Most continued to hold through the meandering bear of 2004 and early 2005. Several did not receive sell signals until late 2007 and early 2008 since those March 2003 buy signals.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

All updated information can be accessed from the following link. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Technically, the Near-term Indicant qualified for a bull signal a few weeks ago, but the position of bearish indicators was not supportive. Therefore, the Near-term Indicant did not signal bull/buy, as would normally be the case. However, earlier this past week, following strong bearish expressions on Friday, March 27 and Monday, March 30, the major indices “bounced north” off of the Near-term Indicant’s bullish blue curve. That contrasted significantly with the three most recent near-term bullish attempts. This suggests continuing bullishness on a near-term basis. Even the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant are favoring on-going bullishness.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 10.0% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 45.6% and the S&P500 is up 8.5% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 41.1% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. Interestingly, the NASDAQ100 is up 63.0% since October 9, 2002, which is more than the other indices. RIMM, Apple, and a few others who have strongly performed are the primary contributors. Now, the current economic environment is challenging them.

The Dow is down 43.4% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 43.3% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is down 45.9% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007.

The NASDAQ is down 67.9% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 44.8% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 31.6% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

The Dow is down 8.6% so far this year. The NASDAQ is up 2.8% so far this year. Keep in mind the post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since 1832. So far, the stock market is conforming to this historical standard.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 32.3% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%., which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 8.5% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which is consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 4.6%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 2.7% and finished up by 8.6% for that year, which was congruent with election year bullishness although shy of magnitude standards. It was down by 8.8% in 2005’s post election year, which maintained congruency to the historical standards of losses. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. 2005 finished up by a mere 1.4%, which was an excellent year based on post election year historical standards. In 2006, it was up 6.0% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 1.5% at this time in 2007 with the Alan Greenspan scare but finished up that year by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. It was down 10.9% at this time last year. The NASDAQ finished down by 40.5% in 2008. That was contrarian performance to historical election year bullishness and the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

So far, this presidential post election year is performing consistently with historical standards. The capital markets understand socio-political influences are predominant in the first year of any new incoming administration and thus generally non-bullish. Politicians offer nothing pertinent to the quality of life, including health or wealth. They “talk about it” but just one RN offers more toward health and one good entrepreneur offers more toward wealth than the collection of all politicians, kings, queens, and dictators since the beginning of time. Those “control freaks” only talk and rob folks of their wealth and health.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% due to increasing bullish influences for your longer-term holdings. The Mid-term Indicant had to signal bull this past weekend due to the powerfully forming near-term, short-term and quick-term indicators.

If you feel you will need cash within the next two years, you should consider selling all stocks. (The Indicant is not signaling hold for any mutual funds, including those that short the market at this time). The ETF are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models participate in bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant is more focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Short-term interest rates have moved north in six of the past ten weeks. They were up this past week. As stated the past several weeks, the issue confronting the Fed is the threat of deflation from a souring economic environment, followed by hyperinflation, as the supply of printed money is increasing well beyond productive capacities. That will eventually lead to demand exceeding supply by significant amounts and thus leading to hyperinflation. The demand will be generated from both socio-economic extremes; the very rich and the very poor. The middle class will be caught in the squeeze. The middle class works for the rich and the rich are about to become less rich; go figure.

As stated last week, the problem with the devolving economy is that those buying goods and services are not producers. Although some of the very rich are highly productive, they are too few in numbers to offset the significantly higher number of the lazy poor-“give-me” generation. That will further depress the supply side, thereby adding socioeconomic problems in addition to the inflationary threats. The political structure is shortsighted on vote getting. Without strategic vision or for that matter, capability, political leaders endure their psychological problems and with that, wealth destruction by them continues.

There is no change from the past twelve weeks. Interest rates remain at record low levels. That normally fosters a bullish stock market. Unfortunately, souring economic conditions at an accelerating rate have reduced the normal bullish relationship of low interest rates as irrelevant. Although rates are low, the process of borrowing money is not a capitalistic relationship between borrower and seller and thus irrelevant to the capital markets. Government intervention is going to wreak havoc on the United States economy. Governments simply cannot perform due to their riskless and reckless decision-making of using everyone else’s money plus a printing press.

The U.S. economy is perceived to have the greatest chance of returning to robustness when compared to other countries. As stated the past ten weeks, the exception to this is China, who may or may not need U.S. consumption to bolster their economy. A weakening dollar against the Yuan may enjoy a longer-term labor relationship with the West. However, the stock market is focused only on the next six to nine months.

Gold is an exception. It remains too risky to sell even though weakening on a short-term basis. Our hold positions are okay. Its strength is a testament to the fear elements inherent in the economy. Economic conditions will be fostering the “hate element” of humanity. Keep your eye on the daily report as gold appears nearing a cyclical peak on a short-term basis, but fundamentally remains a solid hold.

As stated 25-weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental. You will see that prognosis continuing in spite of recent bullish expressions.

As stated 21-weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.”

As stated 17-weeks ago, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near expiration. Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from time to time, but the trend should remain bearish throughout this year and into 2010. Bullish spurts will occur from time to time. As we learned from the November 28, 2008 – January 21, 2009 bullish spurt, profit potential from them is limited and in some cases disappoint rather rapidly. The attempted spurt on Feb 6, 2009 faded quickly and expired on Feb 19, 2009. The short-term trader will trade on those spurts, while mid-to-long-term investor should remain on the sidelines. Finally, the current spurt underway has potential for sustainability through April.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 32.3% since that sell signal. It has been bearish in nine of the last 14-weeks. It has been bullish the past four weeks, following three solid bearish weeks.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is down 13.9% since the Midterm Indicant signaled sell on August 1, 2008. It was solidly bearish last week, conflicting with its Vanguard cousin.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 19.8% since that sell signal. It was solidly bullish the past fours weeks, following bearish behavior in the prior four week period.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 36.7% since that sell signal. It was also bullish the past four weeks.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 51.8% since that sell signal and enjoyed bullishness the past few weeks.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 21.0% since that sell signal and also bullish the past few weeks.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on April 3, 2009. The Quick-term Indicant continues to signal avoid since September 2, 2008. It is down 34.6% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 8.6% since that buy signal, annualizing at 27.4%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 26.0%. The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on April 3, 2009 as it fell below its bearish green curve with declining Vector Pressure.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $25,504,680.

That beats buy and hold performance of $1,219,776 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $120,730. That beats buy and hold’s $82,525 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $162,770. That beats buy and hold’s $56,237 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1990.9%, 46.3%, and 189.4%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the MTI-RYS model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by over 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade, as the bear will gain momentum.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. The bullish rally punished this contrarian fund the past two weeks. It is too risky to hold with the Near-term and threatening Quick-term bull cycles that appear to be forming.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 177.0% (annualized at 10.1%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 909-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning. However, the Long-term Indicant is getting very close to signaling bear. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Near-term bullish bias configured on March 31, 2009 with a solid bounce off of Blue. That attribute suggested this is not a short-term bullish spurt. Several indicators are moving north; Bullish Blue, Bearish Green, and Vector Pressure. Bearish Force Vector cycles are now mature and many continue hovering in bullish domains, which correlates to cyclical sustainability on a short-term basis. There are now three Quick-term Red Bulls, which mitigates dynamic bearish threats. It only takes one non-contrarian Red Bull to do this.

Keep in mind, this Near-term Bull is fighting the trend, which is bearish. The Quick-term bearish yellow and red curves continue moving south.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled bull for the eleven major indices on Mar 31, 2009 and bear for Contrarian VIX on the same day. The 11-major indices are up by an average of 6.4% since that bull signal. The VIX is down 10.1% since the bear signal.

The Quick-term Indicant also did not signal new bias shifts. All eleven major indices are down 33.9% since the QTI signaled bear an average of 34.8-weeks ago. Contrarian VIX is up 72.2% since the QTI bull signal 30.0-weeks ago. Although its configuration remains poised for bullish behavior, it could lie dormant for a few more weeks. Its recent flatness is abnormal in the face of dynamic near-term and short-term bullishness in general equities.

On-going attribute watch for major indices:

-QTI Red Bull Status—Quick-term bias favors bear. For the first time in several months, one of the major indexes crossed above it’s bullish red curve. It was the NASDAQ100. The Quick-term Indicant cannot signal bull, though, because the bullish red curve is below the bearish yellow curve. The major indices do not possess this feature. Red Bulls disallow stock market crashing. This assurance remains absent with the exception of one ETF. Several others are nearing that status for the first time since last summer.

-NTI Blue Bull Status-This indicator is moving north, favoring the Near-term Bull.

-NTI Green Bear Status – Several are now moving north, favoring the Near-term Bull. If and when they pass buy prices, that is an excellent position for setting stop losses. It is usually better to set stop losses at a dollar or two below the bearish green price. Green will rise very rapidly facilitating this tactic.

-Force Vector Position- Most remain deep inside bullish domains. Aberrant behavior in bullish domains suggests bullish support on a short-term basis when other Near-term Indicators are favoring the bull.

-Force Vector Direction – Their abnormal southerly movement is not supportive of the bear.

-Vector Pressure Position- Short-term bearish bias concluded on Mar 24, 2009. None are in bearish domains.

-Tangential Protection - None of the 11-major indices possess this attribute.

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators abated robust behavior on Mar 31, 2009. They appear to have pinnacled, which suggests impending stock market stability. Volatility for the next few weeks should wane, which favors the underlying cyclicality of directional intensity. That is bullish.

Short-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated two buy signals and one sell signal.

In addition to the buy signals today, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 6.5%, annualizing at 391.6% since their buy signals an average of 0.9-weeks ago. The NTI is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down by an average of 3.7% since their sell signals an average of 4.2-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated two buy signals and no sell signals. Yesterday’s Quick-term buy signal was the first in several months and there were two more today.

In addition to the buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for four ETF’s. They are up an average of 30.7% since their buy signals an average of 14.5-weeks ago. 25-ETF’s are down 33.5% since their sell signals an average of 33.1-weeks ago.

We now have three Quick-term Red Bulls, which significantly reduces the threat of dynamic bearishness.

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant –Apr 3, 2009-Fri-This is the same as the past two days, except there are now three Quick-term Red Bulls. That supports a “relaxed and enjoy” attitude toward bullish sentiment. Keep in mind, this Near-term Bull is fighting the bearish trend, but those three Red Bulls will be attempting to adjust the longer Quick-term trend. Apr 2, 2009-Thu-Same as yesterday. This near-term bull is solid and even received some bullish support today from the Quick-term Indicant. We now have one Red Bull, which guards against dynamic bearishness. It appears most of the major indices and ETF’s are headed for their respective bullish red curves. When that occurs, the interaction will be telling with respect to directional intensity. Apr 1, 2009-Wed-The Near-term bull appears solid. The market moved north today on declining Force Vectors, which is bullish. Excessive volatility should wane with minor bullish and bearish expressions for the next few weeks, but with a gentle northerly movement in stock prices. Mar 31, 2009-Tue Prices bounced north off of rising bullish blue. That, coupled with a slowing volume, suggests, at worse, a stabilizing market. Since the Near-term Bullish Blue curve acted as a floor and is rising, the Near-term Indicant had to signal buy for several ETF’s today. There is no fundamental reason for this other than technical and the possibility of forecasted corporate earnings error estimates into the first quarter of 2010. Mar 30-, 2009-Mon-Desired declining Force Vectors have accommodated the related desire for obviations of directional intensity on a near-term basis. If the VIX remains passive while Force Vectors continue to decline over the next two to three days, it is likely near-term bullishness will unfold in spite of no fundamental reason to do so. Corporate earnings will be reported; some favorably and some unfavorably. If prices bounce above the Near-term Bullish Blue curve, the Near-term Indicant will have to signal buy/bull even though this bullish spurt is nearing its conclusion (inside three to five weeks from now, based on current configurations). Mar 27, 2009-Fri-Force Vectors continue resisting in their support of bearish behavior. However, as expected today’s bearish behavior was encouraging, but it was not a systemic bear. Do not be surprised at volatility for the next several days. Force Vectors should obviate directional intensity once they fall and by a significant amount.

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 6.7% since then. Its configuration is similar to VIX, but the math of double downs is sometimes distorting. It, along with VIX, is poised for a bullish cycle, but they can both linger for several more weeks scraping along the edge of bearish domains. They should perform well on the next cycle.

ETF#03-Natural Resources - This ETF is down 34.6% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on September 2, 2008.

As previously stated, the Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until Vector Pressure is positive and Yellow Bear expires.

Force Vector jumped north today and the Near-term Indicant signaled buy. It is below Vector Pressure, which is a bit of a bearish threat, but the other Near-term attributes suggest bullishness for this ETF.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 8.6% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. It is annualized growth is at 27.4% since then.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell today for GLD. It fell below green, Force Vectors fell into bearish domains, and Vector Pressure is appearing to continue its shift to the south.

Gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Near-term Indicant will signal sell once Force Vector crosses below N (into bearish domains) and the price is below Green.

ETF#14-Long Government received a buy signal on Feb 23, 2009 from the Near-term Indicant. It is down 1.5% since then. It’s Vector Pressure remains positioned to support bullish behavior and very much so. It has not been very contrarian the past few days, as it has participated in bullish behavior. However, as volatility wanes, this ETF may languish for several more days.

We’re continuing to hold unless it becomes a Yellow Bear, as the goal is to simply beat buy and hold. It is up 16.3% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on June 24, 2008 and annualizing at 20.7%.

Major ETF Events Today

The NASDAQ100 index crossed above the Quick-term Indicant’s bullish red curve today. That is the first time this has occurred since last summer. The market is cavitated (red below yellow) right now. It will receive a bull signal once it crosses above bearish yellow.

Gold’s near-term sell signal is money rotation from precious metals to other investments. It is not that gold is unattractive. It is simply not as attractive, as say, Apple, Google, or Research in Motion right now. It is one of those supply and demand things. The demand for gold is not high right now and on a near-term basis somewhat bearish.

QQQQ and XLU are technologically sensitive ETF’s and that is where the money is chasing to right now. RIMM reported nice profits, suggesting the world of technology is enjoying immunity to the recessionary economy. One could surmise phones are needed for job searches.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Bullish convergence occurred the past four weeks, following three consecutive weeks of combined bearish divergence/convergence. The market has expressed a combined bearish convergence/divergence in ten of the past 15-weeks. This is a testament to the bear’s strength.

Obviations of sustainable bullishness do not occur until there are four consecutive weeks of bullish convergence. That occurred this past week. We now have a bullish cycle underway that has sustainability; as least through the month of April.

Indicant Conclusion

There were again no Mid-term Indicant buy signals for non-contrarian Mutual Funds. All 99-of those funds are with avoid signals. Additionally, the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for the contrarian ProShares Fund, mentioned earlier in this report. All 100-mutual funds are currently avoided.

Those funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant are down by an average of 33.8% since their sell signals an average of 42.4-weeks ago. Although the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models are holding a few of the ETF’s, the Mid-term Indicant will not signal buy for most of the Mutual Funds until they remove themselves from bearish domains. Current configurations suggest it could be a year or longer for that to occur.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

04/05/09