Apr 24, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Lafe Solomon’s Three Pound Brain

Shareholders have no rights. Government and unions appear to have exclusive rights. The National Relations Labor Board’s top lawyer, Lafe Solomon, filed a lawsuit against Boeing seeking to force it to move production from a nonunion plant in South Carolina to a unionized one in Washington State.

Lafe Solomon is a 39-year career public servant. In other words, he is without accomplishment. He may point to his collegiate achievements to argue that point. However, academic success means nothing. All that proves is that one has an ability to hear or read and regurgitate it on a test, regardless of subject or quality of content.

Too many non-college educated have created too much wealth as a solid argument to those lazy hazy intellectual elites. The so-called uneducated include, but not limited to, Henry Ford, Michael Dell, Bill Gates, Earle Halliburton, Walter P. Chrysler, Larry Ellison, KT Norris, ad infinitum. We won wars because KT Norris could build missiles about as fast as the U.S. Army and U.S Navy could shoot them. Those few individuals directly and indirectly facilitated thousands of millionaires. Lafe Solomon, all of his government peers, all politicians, all kings, queens, and dictators since the beginning of time have never facilitated even one dollar of wealth for anyone. Their corrupt practices created phony wealth for some, but very limited to those close to them and without objection to the accumulation of unearned wealth.

Lafe Solomon points to the National Labor Relations Act of 1935. That governs the private sector workers’ right to unionize as well as relations between tens of thousands of companies and employees. His little three-pound brain has concocted a lawsuit against Boeing based on that 1935 law.

Franklin Delano Roosevelt propelled the National Labor Relations Act of 1935. It was to serve one purpose. That purpose was to garnish large blocks of votes for FDR. Nearly all three-pound brains contain one common theme; “what is best for me?” Most actions by most people have at the forefront of all motivation, a self-serving interest. FDR clearly demonstrated this. Does one really think that FDR had profound compassion for tens of thousands of workers, who would break the law to get their way? Frederick W. Taylor had already demonstrated high wages with low costs. FDR and the entire institution of government had nothing to do with Taylor’s work nor do they understand it.

Lafe Solomon endures no personal risk in filing the lawsuit. It will cost him nothing; win or lose. The lawsuit would make more sense if Lafe Solomon would lose his home and lifestyle if he lost the lawsuit. How can a culture and society be so stupid to allow such processes to evolve? Such evolvement will actuate the devolvement of that culture. You are seeing it now with high energy costs and persistent underemployment. Folks like Lafe Solomon are at the core of economic problems. Supporting pure economic leeches is one thing; the catastrophic element is allowing economic leeches to have influence.

Regulatory agencies add nothing to society. They drain values from society. Their primary purposes, as demonstrated, are 1) take life easy or 2) network for a good job in the private sector. Government employees at the federal level do only one of those two things; some have mastered the skill of embellishing both.  There have been variations to what government workers do. Employees at the Security and Exchange Commission spent most of their workdays surfing the internet for pornographic materials during the financial meltdown in 2008. Air traffic controllers fall asleep on the job. These are just a few examples of what government employees are all about.

Although Boeing’s management has a significant share of dilettantes, they are less of a burden than those poor lost souls lining the halls of government.

Here is how the system is supposed to work. Shareholders elect directors. Directors employ management. Management develops business processes for profit. Management hires workers. Workers produce product or service with one and only one goal; make the shareholders money. There is nothing wrong with that model. Competing organizations do the same. Some win and some lose. The salient point is competition. That system works better than any other system than has ever been devised. That system is the sole source of every possession you have that you enjoy from any corporation.

Politicians invoke another element. They encourage unionism. They do this so they only have to contact one or two people (union leaders) for donations, as opposed to thousands. In return for those donations, politicians develop laws and government contracts favorable to the unions. Not only do the politicians gain funds from the unions they obtain a large block of votes. Those two groups, unions and politicians, represent the bottom of the character pit of humanity. Both groups have mastered the concept of “garnishing the most for the least amount of effort.”

Lafe Solomon and all of his peers in government have never provided you anything that you desire. On the contrary, one with his namesake, King Solomon, had the masses of humanity build him fine luxuries. Solomon before, and Solomon now, have/had swirling around in their little three pound brains that they are special and more important than you and anyone else.

Lafe Solomon has probably been paid well over four million dollars from your tax payments in his 39-years as a public servant, with an added emphasis on the word, servant. That is all he is and none of us need him. He is a servant that serves no viable service. How can one calculate the ROI (return on investment) of Lafe Solomon? Simply divide the change in productivity at Boeing (it is going down) by Lafe Solomon’s salary. It yields a huge negative number. Thus, his very existence is negative to value creation and economic yield. In essence, humanity retains vestiges of the bicameral brain, which was also around three pounds.

Lafe Solomon’s has a basic human right to swirl around whatever imagery he desires in his three-pound brain. There is no basic human right to have that imagery influence the imagery of others without their full and willing consent. Mr. Solomon should have no right to dampen earnings and shareholder wealth at Boeing. Those dilettante management teams do enough damage by themselves. Adding public servants in the mix will most likely ruin Boeing. If Boeing management had courage, they would move the entire country overseas where politicians and government employees have no influence. If such a country cannot be found, then close shop, as the only other option would be pure corruption.

If the government is victorious, sell Boeing stock. If those public servants elevate their actions toward other companies, sell those stocks also. The S&P100 index is the weakest of them all. Those companies are always in the evil eye of government bureaucrats and they also attract resume writers in their employment. The weak always target where the big bucks flow; the weak are 1) public servants and 2) dilettante management. The S&P100 performance clearly and consistently demonstrates this.

Now to the core of the problem. South Carolina voted Republican in the 2008 election. South Caroline-Boeing operations are non-union. Washington State voted Democrat in the 2008 election. Washington-Boeing is union. That correlates well with what would be expected by the NLRB. The problem is that shareholder consideration does not correlate with the lawsuit.

Sell any large cap where you see government involvement, ranging from lucrative contracts to bureaucratic meddling. All of that is source of decay and corruption.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

NAS100#86-BIIB shot up 20.2% last week. After a steady bullish trend, based on the bearish yellow curve, it is breaking out of a relatively tight trading range over many years.

ISTK#32-HYGS and ISTK#35-PLUG fell 14.4% and 16.1%, respectively last week in spite of energy sector bullishness. Although their financial fundamentals are poor, they are displaying configurations suggesting bullish potential.

All of the DJIA stocks ranged from a gain of 8.7% to a loss of 4.0%. The gainer was DJIA#26-INTC and the loser was DJIA#06-BAC. That is appropriate since Intel adds economic wealth, while Bank of America does not. Bank of America is down 66.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on January 4, 2008. As you can see from the chart, it is behaving in a manner that is consistent in their relationship with the U.S. Congress. Their manipulations are consistent with the quote, “the chickens have come home to roost.”

All of the Dow Utilities closed last week, ranging from a gain of 3.0% to a decrease of 0.9%. The gainer was DJU#11-WMB. The underperformer was DJU#10-PEG. WMB is up 62.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. PEG is down 2.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy a few weeks earlier on Sep 17, 2010. One group of defaulting mortgagees is not paying their utility bills, while the other must be.

As usual, there were no wild swings in mutual funds.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 302 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 53.5%. That annualizes to 46.0%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 302-stocks and funds for an average of 60.4-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 33-stocks and funds of 340-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 48.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 109.0-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Apr 16, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 227-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 42.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 38.3% (annualized at 46.9%). There were 88-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 31.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 84.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 21-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Apr 24, 2009. They were up by an average of 114.9% (annualized at 62.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of 95.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 323-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 31.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 46.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear was beginning to lose its dominance on this weekend in 2009, while the Mid-term Indicant remained more conservative before signaling buy.

There were 203-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 18, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 123.8-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 145.0% (annualized at 60.9%). There were 141-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 16.2% from their respective sell signals an average of 26.1-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals on this weekend in 2008. There was one sell signal on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 242-sell signals in the prior 23-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the newly avoided stocks remained with avoid signals.

On Apr 20, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 283-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 127.0% (annualized at 64.3%) since their buy signals an average of 102.8-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 47-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 7.3% since their sell signals an average of 17.5-weeks earlier. There were 15-buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2007.

Five years ago, on Apr 21, 2006, there were 271-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 138.4% (annualized at 73.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 98.5-weeks earlier. There were 63-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 6.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 20.1-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and eight sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

On Apr 22, 2005, there were 205-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 94.7%, annualizing at 57.6%, since their respective buy signals an average of 85.4-weeks earlier. There were 110-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 28.7% since their sell signals an average of 52.4-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and five sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 265-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 23, 2004. They were up by an average of 71.8%, annualizing at 75.1%, since their buy signals 49.7-weeks earlier. The 25-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 26.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 39.3-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2004.

On Apr 25, 2003, there were 247-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 26.1% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 15.5-weeks earlier. That annualized at 87.7%. There were 34-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 26.4% since their sell signals an average of 15.5-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds in 2002-late 2004. There were nine buy signals in addition to 151-buy signals in the prior five weeks. There were six sell signals on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was nine weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Most short-term attributes continue supporting the stock market bull. Force Vectors shifted back to the north. This coming week will be interesting. Of interest, will Force maintain bullish domain positions? Pressure is declining. It will be bearish if Force falls into bearish domains with falling Pressure.

In spite of short-term concerns, the Mid-term Indicant attributes supporting the stock market bull remain strong.

The mid-term election year of 2010 behaved classically pivoting itself to support the normally bullish pre-election year of 2011. This behavior correlated well with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemate. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish. Mid-eastern unrest will resume its threat to the stock market bull, as a function of speculation of those empty souls who are attempting to gain control of petro flow into the capital markets. The problem with economic leeches and tyrants is their limited ability to see the big picture. In the end, their methods result in devolved processes. Their egos blind them of the fact they will also fall prey to their shenanigans.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest, but they should be tight. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 71.6% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 153.1% and the S&P500 is up 72.2% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 162.1% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011. Much of that depends, however, on unrest in the Middle East, related oil prices, political mumbo-jumbo by U.S. politicians, and the Japanese crisis.

The NASDAQ is down 44.1% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 12.4% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 6.7% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 12.4% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. Interestingly, the NASDAQ was explosively bullish on this week in 2001 in addition to the prior week.

The NASDAQ was down by 7.9% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 6.7%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 0.4% and finishing up for that year by 1.4%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was down 9.8% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 6.2% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 4.6% at this time in 2007, finishing up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 9.2% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 4.2% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 10.4% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 11.7% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 1.4% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 14.6% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The S&P600-small cap index is up 0.5% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Interestingly, the NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is now up by 6.2% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400 is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that is also above pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 7.4% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. As earlier stated, the S&P600 joined ranks of this sort of bullish behavior in late March. The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 18.4% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks from 2007 and 2000. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

Most major indices last cyclical bottom occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 91.0% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 122.3% and the S&P500 is up 97.7% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 146.2% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-January 2010 bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Of course, such bearishness will eventually occur, the Mid-term Indicant finds no evidence of that on the immediate horizon.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the shorter near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull. Middle Eastern unrest, although, is a bit threatening to the stock market bull, depending though on the nature of that unrest. If oil prices skyrocket, the bear will be delighted. If democracy expands in that region, the bull will be delighted. Current parameters suggest stock market bearishness in the event of maximal threats to the Saudi Kingdom, which is a stabilizing force in that region. The Japanese nuclear crisis remains elusive, even though related Japanese ETF’s received Short-term Indicant sell signal seven weeks ago. Interestingly, all international related ETF’s received sell signals well ahead of the Japanese earthquake, tsunami, and consequential nuclear crisis. Since then, all internationally related ETF’s have received short-term buy signals. This is a testament to the bull’s resiliency to major threats.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As promised by Bernanke, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. It endured significant bearishness nine weeks ago and holding there after a bit of mild volatility. Bernanke, apparently, remains concerned with the economic outlook. The 2012 forecasted values do not yet indicate any significant increases. Keep in mind these forecasts are purely statistical, but qualitative inquiries are not suggesting different projections at this time.

The 6-month CD yield increased significantly 21-weeks ago, suggesting desired longer-term upward pressures by the banks. Since then it has settled back down. It remains depressed and has been flat since then. It fell 10-basis points nine weeks ago and another five points four weeks ago. In essence, a level of stability has been found after wild variations in such a minor investment vehicle.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 13-weeks ago. It continues to rise and even on the verge of shift the Bullish Red Curve into a bullish cycle. It has already done that with the Bearish Yellow Curve. The European rate hike three weeks ago contributed to Euro strengthening.

The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen while the Japanese Yen continues to weaken. Japan will require significant debt financing for rebuilding infrastructure. The Canadians will continue to enjoy their exports of commodities and raw materials.

Overall, the US dollar is weakening, avoiding the prior threat of strengthening.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to be challenged, based on political dynamics. However, statistical bullishness remains in tact. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable, but enjoying steady increases the past several weeks. Middle Eastern unrest is adding a bit of pizzazz to those increases.

As stated by the Indicant for several months, it is priced where the Kingdom finds comfort at around $80/bbl, albeit departing on the high end of his desired tolerance levels the past several weeks due, mainly, to instability in the Middle East. It has been nudging a bit higher than that for the past several weeks. It achieved Red Bull status several weeks ago for the first time since 2007. The high-end forecast continues to project $120/bbl by 2012. The Saudi Kingdom will have to approve that, though. Middle Eastern unrest offer additional pizzazz to its recent bullishness.

Commodity prices continue with dynamic bullish aggression. Most are at record highs. The tsunami effect on their bearishness a few weeks ago appears to have expired. Significant bullish behavior continues along the mid-term to long-term cycle. They are not yet contributory to inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are enjoying Red Bull status.  This remains economically bullish.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, you will find the Reuter’s UK Commodities Index continues moving north since early 2009. It is a Red Bull. It continues to skyrocket, setting a new all time high during the week of November 8, 2010. It continued setting new highs until the past few weeks, but again rising. Some of the recent bearish behavior is attributable to the crisis in Japan, but just a small blip on the charts. Questionable economic projections and default threats from Portugal and others in Europe continue to pester. It remains economically bullish with inflationary considerations later. The CRB Bridge Futures continues its shift from waffling to significant and dynamic bullish aggression. It is also a solid Red Bull and economically bullish albeit with long-term inflationary threats.

This paragraph remains the same. Commodities, overall, discontinued behavior consistent with uncertainty in favor of outright bullishness several weeks ago. Recent bearish behavior has expired. “Extract baby extract” seems to be an evolving theme as more people around the planet are moving toward capitalistic progressions in spite of American waffling.

Mortgage rates remain configured with countering the prevailing bearish trend. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. They are, however, bouncing around their respective bullish red curves, but have not influenced a directional shift in trend or cycle.  Therefore, the underlying mid-term bearish cycle remains unthreatened.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable.

Overall, hard economic data continues with stability, although cyclically increasing. Recent softening appears to have expired. That is economically non-bearish, but lending support to longer-term inflationary potential. Rising productivity from increased interests in capitalism around the world could significantly dampen inflationary threats. That, coupled with U.S. political dynamics of potential massive sovereign debt reductions, suggests dynamic bullishness. 

At some point, the U.S. Congress will learn they have no influence on how China, India, and other countries manage their economies, which will eventually enjoy larger economies than the U.S. at some point. It is believed their younger generation is smarter and with significant better work ethics than in North America. Investing bias should be directed to the more productive as opposed to the U.S. Jerry Springer generation. If those rapidly developing economies retain a penchant for capitalism, rest assured prices for all commodities will escalate. However, rising productivity associated with capitalists could dampen the effects on consumers. These potential economic shifts are unparalleled in the annals of history.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 23.3%, annualizing at 38.7% since then. As stated last week, the Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 26.8% since then, annualizing at 16.2%. It was also solidly bullish last week.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 33.5%, annualized at 55.6% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 55.6%, annualized at 92.2%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 35.4% since then, annualizing at 65.0%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 50.5% since that buy signal, annualizing at 83.7%.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 46.3% since then, annualizing at 76.4%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 81.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 34.3%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It is up 8.4%, annualizing at 48.6%, since its most recent Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All the major indices are up by an average of 30.1% since their bull signals an average of 54.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 28.7%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $32,978,674. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,902,630 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $158,052. That beats buy and hold’s $131,000 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $241,332. That beats buy and hold’s $97,876 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 77.0% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal. It is no longer getting close to a buy signal, as it appears to have succumbed to the stock market bull for the time being. It may not receive a buy signal until 2013, which is the next post election year.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 332.0% (annualized at 17.0%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,016-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Configurations supporting the Near-term bull cycle are weakening, but remain bullish nonetheless. Pressure remains in bullish domains offering mild support of that bull cycle.

Force Vectors shifted back into bullish domains. The bull remains inspired.

The bull/bear battle is not over, though. Force Vectors need to remain in bullish domains.

The bull still needs more Pressure from ETF-EWJ#06-Japan. As you can see, its Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains. That is pestering the stock market bull. The question remains as valid, “will Japan” bring down the stock market bull?

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull of all eleven major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 0.3% since their respective bull signals on Apr 1, 2011. The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for contrarian VIX. It is down 15.6% since the bear signal on April 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant is also signaling bear of contrarian VIX. It is down 15.6% since the bear signal on Apr 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for the eleven major non-contrarian indices for an average of 28.5-weeks. They are up by an average of 19.3% since their bull signals, annualizing at 35.0%.

Short-term Market Summary

Eleven non-contrarian Red Bull configurations remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle.

Force returned to bullish domains, offering significant bullish support. The next obstacle is for it to reside there for several days.

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. It fell back into low activity a few weeks later. It continues moving lethargically. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains, while mildly increasing there. Unless these configurations shift back to robust configurations, do not be surprised at overall stock market lethargy.

Apr 21, 2011-Thu-Mild volume on mild bullishness is a nice follow-on to yesterday’s bullish aggression by the stock market and volume. Those desiring dynamic bullishness, though, would have preferred more volume.

Apr 20, 2011-Wed-Hmmm! Volume was a bit aggressive on bullish aggression.

Apr 19, 2011-Tue-Low volume on mild bullishness continues suggesting minimal dynamic shifts, even though bearish attributes are increasing pestering capacity.

Apr 18, 2011-Mon-Low volume should not give the bear a vote of confidence on the bear’s successful battle. The markets were bearishly aggressive but with below average volume.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 6.7% since their buy signals an average of 8.0-weeks ago. This annualizes at 43.6%.

The NTI is avoiding four ETF’s. They are down by an average of 5.0% since their sell signals an average of 2.7-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up 26.2% since their buy signals an average of 39.1-weeks ago. This annualizes at 34.8%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down 3.0% since the QTI sell signals 2.6-weeks ago.

One of the avoided ETF’s is non-contrarian ETF-EWJ#06-Japan. It is up 1.7% since the QTI signaled sell on Mar 14, 2011, although down 7.0% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on March 10, 2011. Vector Pressure remains a bit too low for a buy signal, but getting close.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 46.3%, annualizing at 76.4% since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. As stated on Thursday before the last, “call options are appealing on any weakness. It opened down last Friday, Apr 15 and then propelled to the north. That was a perfect situation for an early AM call option. It was solidly bearish last Monday, offering more call option opportunities.” It was solidly bullish for the remainder of the week generating triple digit gains on those call options.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 81.9% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 34.3%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $127.1 and still rising. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $146.4. It simply keeps moving north.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 8.4% since then, annualizing at 48.6%.

Near-term attributes for the next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure. Price is above NTI Blue and Pressure remains positive.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a sell signal on Fri Apr 8, 2011 by the Near-term Indicant. It fell below NTI Green. It is up 3.0% since that sell signal. It was bearish the past two trading days, following solid bullishness in the three prior days. Its Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains. Fluttering and/or resistance to bearish behavior is common around the QTI Bearish Yellow Curve. This ETF will commit in the next few days.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear on Apr 8, 2011. It is up 2.3% since that sell signal. Its recent non-contrarian behavior suggests a bearish response is due, which occurred the past two days, although mildly.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell Apr 20, 2011 for ETF#31-QID. It is down 1.5% since that sell signal.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Apr 1, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. The Short-term Indicant may discontinue tracking this ETN due to poor quality practices by its managers. It is down 14.5% since the sell signals.

Major ETF Events

Apr 21, 2011-Thu-Force now back in bullish domains. If they remain there for several days, the bull-bear battle is over along the near-term cycle.

Apr 20, 2011-Wed-Bullish aggression coincided with Force shifting back in favor of the bull.

Apr 19, 2011-Tue-Force Vectors are again shifting back to the north. That is non-bearish. They need to cross back into bullish domains to inspire the bull’s aggression.

Apr 18, 2011-Mon-Bearish aggression was attributable to Standard and Poor’s downgraded of the U.S. debt to negative. Politicians will most likely interpret that as “political” which could invigorate the bear.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 21, 2011. The inflection period has configured to have expired favoring the stock market bull, but keep in mind, this bull is young and remains vulnerable even with strong bullish late this past week.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market was bullishly convergent this past week. That has occurred in three of the past four weeks. That remains in bullish support.

Economic fundamentals continue improving, but international political conflicts are pestering. The Japanese crisis is discerning, but not completely configurable. U.S. political stalemating is always bullish.

The overall stock market has enjoyed bullish convergence in seven of the past eleven weeks. The stock market did not deliver the desired four consecutive weeks in this recent cycle. In spite of less than desired bullish attributes, there is little reason to fear a dynamic and aggressive bear at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The presidential pre-election year stock market bull remains in tact and in full conformance to historical standards. There is no technical support for stock market bearish behavior. This week will be interesting. Will Force Vectors hold in bullish domains? Pressure is falling, which is bearish. However, strong Force will help elevate Pressure.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions have yet to produce significant increases in volume. Volume increases were detected six weeks ago that correlated with bearish behavior. Even with those increases, though, that volume behavior was not dynamic. Volume has resumed pathetically lethargic configurations. With that, there is no volume support suggesting the stock market bull is nearing expiration.

As stated the past 81-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle. International tensions, however, are adding a mild threat to bullish commentary, but interpretations of bullish support also make sense.

Political phenomena in the U.S., coupled with low interest rates, continue in support of the bull. The world’s third largest economy in Japan is adding a new twist. With that, though, one may accurately conclude crisis introduces opportunity.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation is an accurate descriptor of the current economy. That, coupled with unrest in the Middle East and the Japanese nuclear crisis, could inspire the bear to gain traction. Keep in mind inflation is inevitable in the future unless Congress is successful in reducing trillions of dollars from the national debt. Recent political rhetoric is increasingly passive toward that amount. Executed passivity toward debt reductions will continue to feed inflationary potential. That is the hidden tax, imposed by those, who you elected as your representatives to the U.S. Congress and the executive branches of government.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

04/24/2011

Apr 17, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Politicians’ Budgets and Implosions

Not one private sector organization in 2011 can make budgetary claims for the year 2020. That is nine years from now. Who cares about 2020 when looking at operating income or cash flows? No private sector CEO can go before the shareholders and say, “nine years from now, we’re going to breakeven or maybe even make a little money.” If one did, those puny shares would become worthless.

Politicians boastfully claim they are shaving x-dollars from the federal deficit by 2020. Most of those economic lunatics will not even be on the government payroll in 2020. Yet other economic lunatics, who will not honor their predecessors spending cuts, will replace them.

Imagine you calling your mortgagor and telling them, you have decided to discontinue payments until around the year 2020. You add, “around 2020, we can resume payments to you when things are better.” Rest assured default procedures would begin as soon as you missed a few payments.

Universal law holds that all things must remain in a state of near equilibrium. For every negative, there is a positive. That is pure equilibrium. When one charge begins to exceed the force of the other charge, electrical chaos ensues. If one consumes 5,000-calories/day while using only 2,000-calories/day, the waistline endures the cumulative difference. There are an infinite number of examples citing this universal law.

The conservation theory holds that energy can neither be created nor destroyed. Human beings exert energy; some more than others. The combined efforts of humanity’s exertion of energy have yielded the current socio-economic structure. When the contributors and beneficiaries of products and services exert near equilibrium of energetic output, peaceful coexistence between the two groups usually manifests. When beneficiaries exert little energy, contributors will find their energy is wasted by an amount that is near equal to unexpended energy of the beneficiaries.  The detection of that waste yields fewer economic contributions. Some countries and cultures clearly demonstrate this, where poverty is dominant. Communism, as a system, also clearly demonstrated this phenomenon.

Economic contributors use energy to contribute. Economic consumers (beneficiaries) may use little energy. The energy gap between contribution and consumption continuously expands as the federal deficit expands. That gap will expand to a point, where it generates an economic implosion. It can occur on just as beautiful and serene morning as it was on Aug 6, 1945 in Hiroshima, Japan. That day, however, concluded without beauty and serenity from the nuclear implosion. An economic implosion will not be an imposition at near the speed of light, but an imposition on humanity with similar conclusions; misery.

Some believe deficits do not matter. They are wrong. Annual interest expense on U.S. outstanding debt approached one-half trillion dollars in fiscal year 2010. It is currently taking less than a minute for U.S. national debt to increase by an additional one million dollars. In essence, nothing is obtained from that expense. No new bridges, new roads, etc. Just ever increasing traffic jams. Interest is a pure expense with no offsetting asset (physical or abstract). There is an upward limit to interest expense. That limit is not calculable. Many instinctively know there is an upward limit. They understand the consequences when that upward limit occurs. It is not pretty.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

NAS#10-INFY endured a 12.3% drop last week. That was the wildest swing within the NAS100 family. It is having difficulty climbing above its all time high of $76.09. This company does not overpay its executives, but keep in mind it is based in India.

NAS#86-BIIB was up 13.2% last week, setting a new all time high at $82.96.

ISTK#06-LVLT was up 19.8% last week. It is still down, though, by over 98.7% from its all time high and down 41.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 26, 2008. The balance sheet is weak with below average cash flow from operations and very poor cash flow from investing.

ISTK#35-PLUG was down 12.5% last week and down 99.6% from its all time high. It is down 81.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 4, 2008. Its balance sheet continues to weaken because of continuing negative cash flow.

There were no other wild swings on stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

General calmness remains favorable to the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated four buy signals and one sell signal.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 298 of the 340-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 51.5%. That annualizes to 51.5%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 298-stocks and funds for an average of 60.1-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 32-stocks and funds of 340-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 49.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 111.4-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Apr 16, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 227-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 40.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 35.0% (annualized at 43.9%). There were 89-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 34.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 83.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 21-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Apr 17, 2009. They were up by an average of 117.4% (annualized at 64.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of 95.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 323-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 31.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 45.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear was beginning to lose its dominance this weekend in 2009, while the Mid-term Indicant remained more conservative before signaling buy.

There were 202-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 11, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 121.0-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 130.7% (annualized at 56.2%). There were 203-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 20.3% from their respective sell signals an average of 26.3-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal on this weekend in 2008. There were four sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 238-sell signals in the prior 22-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the newly avoided stocks remained with avoid signals.

On Apr 13, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 281-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 124.0% (annualized at 63.1%) since their buy signals an average of 102.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 62-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 5.4% since their sell signals an average of 14.2-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2007.

Five years ago, on Apr 14, 2006, there were 281-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 130.5% (annualized at 69.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 97.3-weeks earlier. There were 63-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 7.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 20.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

On Apr 15, 2005, there were 209-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 88.6%, annualizing at 55.5%, since their respective buy signals an average of 83.0-weeks earlier. There were 87-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 31.5% since their sell signals an average of 53.0-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and 23-sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 266-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 16, 2004. They were up by an average of 69.6%, annualizing at 74.0%, since their buy signals 48.9-weeks earlier. The 19-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 28.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 42.5-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and nine sell signals on this weekend in 2004.

On Apr 18, 2003, there were 222-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 25.5% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 15.8-weeks earlier. That annualized at 84.1%. There were 42-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 26.6% since their sell signals an average of 15.8-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds in 2002-late 2004. There were 27-buy signals in addition to 134-buy signals in the prior four weeks. There was one sell signal on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was eight weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Most short-term attributes continue supporting the stock market bull. Force Vectors are drifting south, but not threatening. The Mid-term Indicant attributes supporting the stock market bull remain strong.

The mid-term election year of 2010 continues offering traction toward stock market bullishness. Much of this gain correlated with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemate. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish. Mid-eastern unrest will resume its threat to the stock market bull, as a function of speculation of those empty souls who are attempting to gain control of petro flow into the capital markets. The problem with economic leeches and tyrants is their limited ability to see the big picture. In the end, their methods result in devolved processes.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest, but they should be tight. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 69.4% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 148.1% and the S&P500 is up 69.9% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 158.9% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011. Much of that depends, however, on unrest in the Middle East, related oil prices, political mumbo-jumbo by U.S. politicians, and the Japanese crisis.

The NASDAQ is down 45.2% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 13.6% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 5.3% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak. Consequential massive poverty among 6-billion plus inhabitants of planet earth will not be same as 200-years ago. Civil strife will offer significantly more efficient results for those with technical skills within the manufacturing arena.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 20.6% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. Interestingly, the NASDAQ was explosively bullish on this week in 2001.

The NASDAQ was down by 10.1% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 4.2%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 0.1% and finishing up for that year by 1.4%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was down 12.3% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 5.5% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 3.2% at this time in 2007, finishing up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 13.8% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 3.2% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 10.9% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 12.9% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 3.3% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 15.7% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The S&P600-small cap index is down 0.7% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Interestingly, the NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is now up by 3.1% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400 is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that is also above pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 6.1% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. The S&P600 joined ranks of this sort of bullish behavior in late March, but found discomfort in doing so. It is now down 0.7% since its prior weekly close on July 19, 2007. The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 19.4% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks from 2007 and 2000. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

Most major indices last cyclical bottom occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 88.5% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 117.9% and the S&P500 is up 95.1% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 143.2% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-January 2010 bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Of course, such bearishness will eventually occur, the Mid-term Indicant finds no evidence of that on the immediate horizon.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the shorter near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull. Middle Eastern unrest, although, is a bit threatening to the stock market bull, depending though on the nature of that unrest. If oil prices skyrocket, the bear will be delighted. If democracy expands in that region, the bull will be delighted. Current parameters suggest stock market bearishness with maximal threats to the Saudi Kingdom, which is a stabilizing force in that region. The Japanese nuclear crisis remains elusive, even though related Japanese ETF’s received Short-term Indicant sell signal six weeks ago. Interestingly, all international related ETF’s received sell signals well ahead of the Japanese earthquake, tsunami, and consequential nuclear crisis. Since then, a few internationally related ETF’s have received short-term buy signals. This is a testament to the bull’s resiliency to major threats.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As promised by Bernanke, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. It endured significant bearishness eight weeks ago and holding there after a bit of mild volatility. Bernanke, apparently, remains concerned with the economic outlook. The 2012 forecasted values do not yet indicate any significant increases. Keep in mind these forecasts are purely statistical, but qualitative inquiries are not suggesting different projections at this time.

The 6-month CD yield increased significantly 20-weeks ago, suggesting desired longer-term upward pressures by the banks. Since then it has settled back down. It remains depressed and has been flat since then. It fell 10-basis points eight weeks ago and another five points three weeks ago. In essence, a level of stability has been found after wild variations in such a minor investment vehicle.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status twelve weeks ago. It continues to rise and even on the verge of shift the Bullish Red Curve into a bullish cycle. It has already done that with the Bearish Yellow Curve. The European rate hike two weeks ago contributed to Euro strengthening.

The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen while the Japanese Yen continues to weaken. Japan will require significant debt financing for rebuilding infrastructure. The Canadians will continue to enjoy their exports.

Overall, the US dollar is weakening, avoiding the prior threat of strengthening.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to be challenged, based on political dynamics. However, statistical bullishness remains in tact. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable, but enjoying steady increases the past several weeks. Middle Eastern unrest is adding a bit of pizzazz to those increases.

As stated by the Indicant for several months, it is priced where the Kingdom finds comfort at around $80/bbl, albeit departing on the high end of his desired tolerance levels the past several weeks due, mainly, to the Libyan civil war. It has been nudging a bit higher than that for the past several weeks. It achieved Red Bull status several weeks ago for the first time since 2007. The high-end forecast continues to project $120/bbl by 2012. The Saudi Kingdom will have to approve that, though. Middle Eastern unrest offer additional pizzazz to its recent bullishness.

Commodity prices discontinued their bearish behavior two weeks ago and have since resumed bullish aggression. Most are at record highs. The tsunami effect on their bearishness a few weeks ago appears to have expired. Significant bullish behavior continues along the mid-term to long-term cycle. They are not yet contributory to inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are enjoying Red Bull status.  This remains economically bullish.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, you will find the Reuter’s UK Commodities Index continues moving north since early 2009. It is a Red Bull. It continues to skyrocket, setting a new all time high during the week of November 8, 2010. It continued setting new highs until the past few weeks, but again rising. Some of the recent bearish behavior is attributable to the crisis in Japan, but just a small blip on the charts. Questionable economic projections and default threats from Portugal and others in Europe continue to pester. It remains economically bullish with inflationary considerations later. The CRB Bridge Futures continues its shift from waffling to significant and dynamic bullish aggression. It is also a solid Red Bull and economically bullish albeit with long-term inflationary threats.

This paragraph remains the same. Commodities, overall, discontinued behavior consistent with uncertainty in favor of outright bullishness several weeks ago. Recent bearish behavior has expired. “Extract baby extract” seems to be an evolving theme as more people around the planet are moving toward capitalistic progressions in spite of American waffling.

Mortgage rates remain configured with countering the prevailing bearish trend. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. They are, however, bouncing around their respective bullish red curves, but have not influenced a directional shift in trend or cycle.  

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable.

Overall, hard economic data continues with stability, although cyclically increasing. Recent softening appears to have expired. That is economically non-bearish, but lending support to longer-term inflationary potential. Rising productivity from increased interests in capitalism around the world could significantly dampen inflationary threats. That, coupled with U.S. political dynamics of potential massive sovereign debt reductions, suggests dynamic bullishness. 

At some point, the U.S. Congress will learn they have no influence on how China, India, and other countries manage their economies, which will eventually enjoy larger economies than the U.S. at some point. It is believed their younger generation is smarter and with significant better work ethics than in North America. Investing bias should be directed to the more productive as opposed to the U.S. Jerry Springer generation. If those rapidly developing economies retain a penchant for capitalism, rest assured prices for all commodities will escalate. However, rising productivity associated with capitalists could dampen the effects on consumers. These potential economic shifts are unparalleled in the annals of history.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 20.1%, annualizing at 34.5% since then. It was solidly bullish in the prior three weeks ahead of last week, where it endured bearish behavior. The Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 23.5% since then, annualizing at 14.4%. It was also solidly bearish last week, following three weeks of solid bullishness.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 30.7%, annualized at 52.7% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 50.3%, annualized at 86.3%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 32.9% since then, annualizing at 62.6%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 46.6% since that buy signal, annualizing at 79.9%.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 43.0% since then, annualizing at 73.0%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 79.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 33.6%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It is up 7.1%, annualizing at 45.8%, since its most recent Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All the major indices are up by an average of 28.4% since their bull signals an average of 53.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 27.6%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $32,368,142. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,877,656 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $155,960. That beats buy and hold’s $129,266 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $236,475. That beats buy and hold’s $95,862 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 75.5% since then.

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled bull for QID on March 18, 2011. This remains configured as a function of a short-term stock market bearish spurt. It will most likely receive a sell signal early this coming week, which was the expectation last week. The Mid-term Indicant is not supportive of an aggressive and sustainable bear at this time. Consequently, the Mid-term Indicant remains unable to signal buy for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short at this time.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal. It is no longer getting close to a buy signal, as it appears to have succumbed to the stock market bull for the time being. It may not receive a buy signal until 2013, which is the next post election year.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 326.4% (annualized at 16.7%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,015-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Configurations remain in support of the bull. The NTI Bull is embryonic and vulnerable, while the Quick-term bull cycle remains strong.

Three issues continue confronting the stock market bull.

ETF#06-EWJ NTI bullish blue curve collapsed on Apr 5, 2011. It also became a Yellow Bear at that time. The question is, will Japan bring down the stock market bull? So far, this fund continues moving bearishly, but not dynamically and at a favorable inequality to the devastation confronting Japan. It was mildly bullish last Tue, Wed, and Thu, escaping the gravity of the QTI bearish yellow curve. However, it was bearish this past Friday. It continues to struggle, but it has not crashed. Although sickly, its relative resilience is impressive.

ETF#09-XLK-Tech Force Vector continues declining. That is the reason for continued avoidance. Force Vector fell into bearish domains this past Tuesday, supporting bearish ambition. This bearish cycle is mature, though, and the bear, so far, has been unable to establish itself. However, its configuration remains participative in threatening elements to the Near-term bull and hold signals.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government was a confrontational element until this past week. However, strong bullish aggression this past Friday reintroduced itself into the bull/bear battle.

NTI bullish support continues. A few examples are as follows.

Supporting the bull are ETF#10-IBB-Biotech and ETF#27-XLP-Consumer. They have not participated in recent bearish behavior.

The bull and bear are battling along the near-term cycle. Several Force Vectors fell into bearish domains this past Tuesday, challenging hold/bull signals. Their bearish cycles are mature. If they dive deeper in bearish domains, the Near-term cycle would be under the bear’s influence.

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull of all eleven major non-contrarian indices. They are down by an average of 0.9% since their respective bull signals on Apr 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear of contrarian VIX. It is down 12.0% since the bear signal on Apr 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for the eleven major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 17.7% since their bull signals an average of 27.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 33.2%.

Short-term Market Summary

Ten non-contrarian Red Bull configurations remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. The weakest, Utilities, renewed its Red Bull status this Friday, while the strongest, NAS100, lost its Red Bull status. That flip-flopping reflects a leaderless configuration. Do not be surprised at meandering behavior along the near-term cycle.

The Dow30 and Dow Composite crossed above NTI Bullish Blue Curve this Friday, while the other major indices remain below that level. That remains non-bullish in position, while a bit encouraging the upper blue chips are NTI Blue Bulls. That, coupled with existing positive Pressure, could invigorate the bull. Threatening to the NTI bull signal is Force Vector’s descent into bearish domains. However, the Force Vector bearish cycle is mature, supporting the idea of a bullish response. Some shifted back to the north this past Friday.

Overall, short-term attributes are challenging the NTI bull signal. If Force dives deeper into bearish domains, a Near-term cycle bear signal will be triggered.

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. It fell back into low activity this past week. It continues moving lethargically. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains. It began moving laterally in the low interest domains several days ago. Unless these configurations shift back to robust configurations, do not be surprised at overall stock market lethargy.

Apr 15, 2011-Fri-Flat volume on flat behavior offers nothing toward any bias shift.

Apr 14, 2011-Thu-Same as yesterday.

Apr 13, 2011-Wed-Again passive volume with no bearish follow-on to yesterday’s aggression. The stock market remains non-committal to either bullish or bearish direction from a volume perspective.

Apr 12, 2011-Tue-Big board volume was a bit aggressive on bearish aggression, while the NASDAQ was passive. Although the bear was a bit aggressive today, volume indicates limited  commitment to continued bearishness.

Apr 11, 2011-Mon-Mild volume on mixed to mildly bearish stock market behavior indicates little commitment to bearish or bullish intent.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 5.2% since their buy signals an average of 7.3-weeks ago. This annualizes at 36.8%.

The NTI is avoiding four ETF’s. They are down by an average of 2.6% since their sell signals an average of 3.3-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 23.5% since their buy signals an average of 37.1-weeks ago. This annualizes at 32.9%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down 1.0% since the QTI sell signals 2.6-weeks ago.

One of the avoided ETF’s is non-contrarian ETF-EWJ#06-Japan. It is down 0.2% since the QTI signaled sell on Mar 14, 2011, although down 8.8% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on March 10, 2011. Although there were no bullish attributes for this ETF, it was up last Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, but mildly bearish this Friday. Its Force Vector crossed above Pressure this past Thursday, but its Pressure remains negative.

The Near-term Indicant continues to avoid ETF’s that retain negative Vector Pressure or declining Force Vectors.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 43.0%, annualizing at 73.0% since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. Force fell below Pressure six trading days ago, but not yet threatening in spite of last Tuesday’s bearish aggression. Force Vector appears near a cyclical bottom. As stated this past Thursday, call options are appealing on any weakness. It opened down this past Friday and then propelled to the north. That was a perfect situation for an early Friday AM call option.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 79.9% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 33.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $127.25 and still rising. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $145.05.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 7.1% since then, annualizing at 45.8%.

Near-term attributes for the next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure. Price is above NTI Blue and Pressure remains positive.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a sell signal on Fri Apr 8, 2011 by the Near-term Indicant. It fell below NTI Green. It is up 3.1% since that sell signal. It was solidly bullish this past Friday. Its Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains. Fluttering and/or resistance to bearish behavior is common around the QTI Bearish Yellow Curve.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear this past Wednesday since it fell below the QTI Yellow curve. It is up 2.4% since that sell signal, as it rebounded with bullish retort from that crossing.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 10, 2011 for ETF#31-QID. It is down 2.7% since the Mar 10, 2011 buy signal. Its Force continues moving north, displaying a bit of tenacity. Preventing a sell signal is the increasing Force Vector. It is in bullish domains, which offers some bullish potential. Its Force Vector moved laterally this past Friday, suggesting its bullish threat may be tiring.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Apr 1, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. The Short-term Indicant may discontinue tracking this ETN due to poor quality practices by its managers. It is down 5.3% since the sell signals.

Major ETF Events

Apr 15, 2011-Fri-Energy, gold, and interest rates were up significantly today, briefly emulating a 1970’s sort of stock market.

Apr 14, 2011-Thu-ETF#06-EWJ-Japan was mildly bullish for the third consecutive day. It crossed above the QTI bearish yellow curve today. It is surprisingly strong in the face of a weakening yen.

Apr 13, 2011-Wed-ETF#06-EWJ-Japan was mildly bullish for the second consecutive day.

Apr 12, 2011-Tue-ETF#03-XLE-Energy fell by a significant 3.1% today. However, that is just cooling and reactionary selling. ETF#06-EWJ-Japan was up on stock market bearish, which was attributed to Japan’s elevating nuclear threat. Just illustrates reactionary headline news is merely for marketing purposes, as opposed to real information.

Apr 11, 2011-Mon-There were none.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 15, 2011. The inflection period has configured to have expired favoring the stock market bull, but keep in mind, this bull is young and vulnerable. Too many attributes do not yet support bearish ambition in spite of this past Tuesday’s bearish aggression. Some stock market elements are hedging with expectations of inflation.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market was bearishly divergent this past week after enjoying bullish convergence in the prior two weeks.

Economic fundamentals continue improving, but international political conflicts are pestering. The Japanese crisis is discerning, but not completely configurable. U.S. political stalemating is always bullish.

The overall stock market has enjoyed bullish convergence in six of the past ten weeks. The stock market did not deliver the desired four consecutive weeks in this recent cycle. In spite of less than desired bullish attributes, there is little reason to fear a dynamic and aggressive bear at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The presidential pre-election year stock market bull remains in tact and in full conformance to historical standards. There is no technical support for stock market bearish behavior. Those few pestering short-term attributes supporting the stock market bear expired on April 1, 2011, but they lack vibrancy of prior expirations since this bull’s birth in March 2009. Therefore, the stock market may be mired in an inflection point in search of which way it should go.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions have yet to produce significant increases in volume. Volume increases were detected five weeks ago that correlated with bearish behavior. Even with those increases, though, that volume behavior was not dynamic. Volume has resumed pathetically lethargic  configurations.

As stated the past 80-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle. International tensions, however, are adding a mild threat to bullish commentary, but interpretations of bullish support also make sense.

Political phenomena in the U.S., coupled with low interest rates, continue in support of the bull. The world’s third largest economy in Japan is adding a new twist. With that, though, one may accurately conclude crisis introduces opportunity.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation is an accurate descriptor of the current economy. That, coupled with unrest in the Middle East and the Japanese nuclear crisis, could inspire the bear to gain traction. Keep in mind inflation is inevitable in the future unless Congress is successful in reducing trillions of dollars from the national debt. Recent political rhetoric is increasingly passive toward that amount. Executed passivity toward debt reductions will continue to feed inflationary potential. That is the hidden tax, imposed by those, who you elected as your representatives to the U.S. Congress and the executive branches of government.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

04/17/2011

Apr 10, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Without Tension

For the first time since the middle 1990’s government employees felt tension last week. They were not sure if they would get a paycheck next week. Most of us feel tension, daily, in our respective vocational requirements. Government workers avoid tension most of the time because there is none. That is because the U.S. government does not endure competitive forces. Exceptions, though, are law enforcement and military, where competitive forces impose required tensions for performance.

Without tension, performance is lackadaisical. All world-class performers in any subject of expertise developed their skills with the application of psychological tension. Such tension was required before the practice or work in the mastering of their skills.

What inspires a government worker to perform at a high level? You have seen them. You rarely see high performance. The better ones go through the motions of just getting through the day. There are some good workers in government, but many are not. Eventually, the better ones lower their standards to least productive. Communism demonstrated this phenomenon. Unionism does the same.

The weakest index, S&P100, is made up of 100-large cap companies. They are typically infested with dilettante management. They will go out of business. The life cycle is around 15-years on average for large caps to go out of business. However, governments rarely go out of business. Incompetence propels large cap demise, while governments avoid extinction.

The U.S. infrastructure is deteriorating. All previous great societies enjoyed a pinnacle of their infrastructures. Then the decline came. All great societies in the past have become extinct. The U.S. behaves as if it will be no exception.

Why do infrastructures deteriorate? Government controls them. The bridge in Minneapolis on I-35 collapsed on August 1, 2007. It had bad gusset design and endured physical depreciation. It was identified as such fifteen years earlier, but repairs and maintenance were not executed. The recommended replacement bridge occurred only after the catastrophe. Thirteen people died and many more were injured. The government is in charge.

Levies in New Orleans did not hold up during hurricane Katrina. Water mains break all the time. The U.S. leaks 10-billion gallons of drinking water every day. Of course, where there are leaks, contaminants enter the openings allowing the leakage. The people of Wawarsing, NY endure leaks from an aqueduct. It enters their homes. They do not drink the water. They take showers and baths using bottled water, just as one would do in Mexico. Sewage seepage interacts with rivers, water wells, and even drinking water pipes. Federal, state, and local governments are in charge of all these things.

There is no tension on governmental employees until a catastrophe occurs. When a catastrophe occurs, fingers are pointed. Until a specific individual is identified as incompetent and the responsible source of the problem, solutions are delayed or even ignored. Tax dollars are wasted on other programs. Therefore, the available funds for infrastructural corrections are deferred as a budget problem. Without waste, fraud, and abuse in government, there would be plenty of funds for infrastructural replacements.

Competition is required for high performance. Governmental departments have no competition. Companies go bankrupt due to competitive forces. Governments do not. They have no competition.

This past weekend, the bastion of inefficiencies, waste, fraud, and abuse was allowed to continue, as is, by your elected politicians. The paychecks will continue as is. Tension will continue to be minimal.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

I-STK-#32 –HYGS skyrocketed by 53.0% the week before last, but was down nearly 20% last week. Most of these smaller energy (fuel cell) sort of companies were wildly bearish last week.

I-STK#27-FCEL was down 13.5% last week, but remains up by 6.9% since MTI buy signal on Feb 25, 2011.

There were no other wild swings on stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. Calmness is favorable to the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated two buy signals and no sell signals.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 297 of the 340-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 51.7%. That annualizes to 45.2%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 296-stocks and funds for an average of 59.5-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 36-stocks and funds of 340-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 43.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 102.1-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Apr 9, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 226-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 40.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 35.0% (annualized at 44.9%). There were 89-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 33.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 82.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 21-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Apr 10, 2009. They were up by an average of 116.8% (annualized at 64.4%) since their respective buy signals an average of 94.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 323-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 32.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 44.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear was beginning to lose its dominance this weekend in 2009, while the Mid-term Indicant remained more conservative before signaling buy.

There were 202-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 4, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 121.9-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 138.4% (annualized at 59.0%). There were 202-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 18.1% from their respective sell signals an average of 25.2-weeks earlier. There were five buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 238-sell signals in the prior 21-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered some of the buy signals, but most of the newly avoided stocks remained with avoid signals.

On Apr 6, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 273-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 125.8% (annualized at 63.1%) since their buy signals an average of 103.7-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 62-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 7.7% since their sell signals an average of 13.4-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and two sell signals on this weekend in 2007.

Five years ago, on Apr 7, 2006, there were 281-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 127.9% (annualized at 66.9%) since their respective buy signals an average of 99.4-weeks earlier. There were 61-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 7.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 21.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

On Apr 8, 2005, there were 230-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 88.8%, annualizing at 59.6%, since their respective buy signals an average of 77.5-weeks earlier. There were 88-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 28.8% since their sell signals an average of 52.8-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 275-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 9, 2004. They were up by an average of 71.0%, annualizing at 78.4%, since their buy signals 47.1-weeks earlier. The 21-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 28.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 41.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2004.

On Apr 11, 2003, there were 222-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 21.4% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 15.0-weeks earlier. That annualized at 74.3%. There were 49-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 17.5% since their sell signals an average of 16.0-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds in 2002-late 2004. There were five buy signals in addition to 129-buy signals in the prior three weeks and 20-sell signals on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was seven weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Most short-term attributes continue supporting the stock market bull. Force Vectors are drifting south, but not threatening. The Mid-term Indicant attributes supporting the stock market bull remain strong.

The mid-term election year continues offering traction toward stock market bullishness. Much of this gain correlated with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemate. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish. Mid-eastern unrest will resume its threat to the stock market bull, as a function of speculation of those empty souls who are attempting to gain control of petro flow into the capital markets. The problem with economic leeches and tyrants is their limited ability to see the big picture. In the end, their methods result in devolved processes.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest, but they should be tight. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 69.9% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 149.6% and the S&P500 is up 71.0% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 160.2% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011. Much of that depends, however, on unrest in the Middle East, related oil prices, political mumbo-jumbo by U.S. politicians, and the Japanese crisis.

The NASDAQ is down 44.9% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 13.0% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 5.6% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulations shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak. Consequential massive poverty among 6-billion plus inhabitants of planet earth will not be same as 200-years ago. Civil strife will offer significantly more efficient results for those with technical skills within the manufacturing arena.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 30.4% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 8.4% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 3.6%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 2.5% and finishing up for that year by 1.4%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was down 8.1% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 6.1% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 2.3% at this time in 2007, finishing up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 11.4% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 0.9% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 7.4% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 12.6% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 2.8% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 15.1% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The S&P600-small cap index is up 0.2% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Interestingly, the NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is now up by 3.7% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400 is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that is also above pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 6.6% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. The S&P600 joined ranks of bullish behavior the week before this past week, but found discomfort in doing so. It is now down 0.2% since its prior weekly close on July 19, 2007. The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 18.5% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

Most major indices last cyclical bottom occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 89.1% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 119.2% and the S&P500 is up 96.3% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 144.4% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-January 2010 bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Of course such bearishness will eventually occur, the Mid-term Indicant finds no evidence of that on the immediate horizon.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the shorter near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull. Middle Eastern unrest, although, is a bit threatening to the stock market bull, depending though on the nature of that unrest. If oil prices skyrocket, the bear will be delighted. If democracy expands in that region, the bull will be delighted. Current parameters suggest stock market bearishness with maximal threats to the Saudi Kingdom, which is a stabilizing force in that region. The Japanese nuclear crisis remains elusive, even though related Japanese ETF’s received Short-term Indicant sell signal five weeks ago. Interestingly, all international related ETF’s received sell signals well ahead of the Japanese earthquake, tsunami, and consequential nuclear crisis. Since then, a few internationally related ETF’s have received short-term buy signals. This is a testament to the bull’s resiliency to major threats.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

As promised by Bernanke, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. It endured significant bearishness seven weeks ago and holding there after a bit of mild volatility. Bernanke, apparently, remains concerned with the economic outlook. Last week’s European 25-basis point increase had no impact in U.S. The 3-month T-Bill fell from 0.07 to 0.01 as of early AM this past Friday. The 2012 forecasted values do not yet indicate any significant increases. Keep in mind these forecasts are purely statistical, but qualitative inquiries are not suggesting different projections at this time.

However, the 6-month CD yield increased significantly 19-weeks ago, suggesting desired longer-term upward pressures by the banks. Since then it has settled back down. It remains depressed and has been flat since then. It fell 10-basis points seven weeks ago and another five points two weeks ago. In essence, a level of stability has been found after wild variations in such a minor investment vehicle.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status eleven weeks ago and holding at that level, but remains with weakening trend and weakening mid-term cycle. The European rate hike last week contributed to Euro strengthening. It is above the Bullish Red Curve, which started rising three weeks ago. The

The Canadian dollar strengthened significantly last week while the Japanese Yen weakened for obvious reasons.

Overall, the US dollar threatens to continue strengthening, but continues to “cyclically” weaken against the Japanese Yen (high productivity) and the Canadian dollar (resource rich).

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull to boot in spite of near-term cyclical bearishness. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to be challenged, based on political dynamics. However, statistical bullishness remains in tact. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable, but enjoying steady increases the past several weeks. Middle Eastern unrest is adding a bit of pizzazz to those increases.

As stated by the Indicant for several months, it is priced where the Kingdom finds comfort at around $80/bbl, albeit departing on the high end of his desired tolerance levels the past several weeks due, mainly, to the Libyan civil war. It has been nudging a bit higher than that for the past several weeks. It achieved Red Bull status several weeks ago for the first time since 2007. The high-end forecast continues to project $120/bbl by 2012. The Saudi Kingdom will have to approve that, though. Middle Eastern unrest offer additional pizzazz to its recent bullishness.

Commodity prices discontinued their bearish behavior last week. Most are at record highs. The tsunami effect on their bearishness a few weeks ago appears to have expired. Significant bullish behavior continues along the mid-term to long-term cycle. They are not yet contributory to inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are enjoying Red Bull status.  This remains economically bullish.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, you will find the Reuter’s UK Commodities Index continues moving north since early 2009. It is a Red Bull. It continues to skyrocket, setting a new all time high during the week of November 8, 2010. It continued setting new highs until the past few weeks, but again rising. Some of the recent bearish behavior is attributable to the crisis in Japan, but just a small blip on the charts. Questionable economic projections and default threats from Portugal and others in Europe continue to pester. It remains economically bullish with inflationary considerations later. The CRB Bridge Futures continues its shift from waffling to significant and dynamic bullish aggression. It is also a solid Red Bull and economically bullish albeit with long-term inflationary threats.

This paragraph remains the same. Commodities, overall, discontinued behavior consistent with uncertainty in favor of outright bullishness several weeks ago. Recent bearish behavior has expired. “Extract baby extract” seems to be an evolving theme as more people around the planet are moving toward capitalistic progressions in spite of American waffling.

Mortgage rates remain configured with countering the prevailing bearish trend. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. They are, however, bouncing around their respective bullish red curves, but have not influenced a directional shift in trend or cycle.  

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable.

Overall, hard economic data continues with stability, although cyclically increasing. Recent softening appears to have expired. That is economically non-bearish, but lending support to longer-term inflationary potential. Rising productivity from increased interests in capitalism around the world could significantly dampen inflationary threats. That, coupled with U.S. political dynamics of potential massive sovereign debt reductions, suggests dynamic bullishness. 

At some point, the U.S. Congress will learn they have no influence on how China, India, and other countries manage their economies, which will eventually enjoy larger economies than the U.S. at some point. If those rapidly developing economies retain a penchant for capitalism, rest assured prices for all commodities will escalate. However, rising productivity associated with capitalists could dampen the effects on consumers. These potential economic shifts are unparalleled in the annals of history.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 24.1%, annualizing at 42.7% since then. It was solidly bullish the past three weeks. The Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 32.2% since then, annualizing at 20.0%. It was also solidly bullish the past three weeks.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 35.5%, annualized at 63.0% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 55.2%, annualized at 97.9%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 37.4% since then, annualizing at 74.0%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 51.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 91.1%.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 47.7% since then, annualizing at 83.7%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 78.1% since that buy signal, annualizing at 33.2%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It is up 6.1%, annualizing at 44.8%, since its most recent Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All the major indices are up by an average of 28.7% since their bull signals an average of 52.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 28.4%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $32,468,739. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,883,470 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $156,963. That beats buy and hold’s $130,098 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $237.824. That beats buy and hold’s $96,408 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 75.8% since then.

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled bull for QID on March 18, 2011. This remains configured as a function of a short-term stock market bearish spurt. It will most likely receive a sell signal early this coming week. The Mid-term Indicant is not supportive of an aggressive and sustainable bear at this time. Consequently, the Mid-term Indicant remains unable to signal buy for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short at this time.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal. It is no longer getting close to a buy signal, as it appears to have succumbed to the stock market bull for the time being. It may not receive a buy signal until 2013, which is the next post election year.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 327.7% (annualized at 16.8%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,014-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Configurations remain in support of the bull. The NTI Bull is embryonic and vulnerable, while the Quick-term bull cycle remains strong.

As stated since last Tuesday, three issues are confronting the near-term bullish cycle:

ETF#06-EWJ NTI bullish blue curve collapsed last Tuesday. It also became a Yellow Bear. The question is, will Japan bring down the stock market bull? So far, this fund continues moving bearishly, but not dynamically and at a favorable inequality to the devastation confronting Japan.

ETF#09-XLK-Tech Force Vector is declining. That is the reason for continued avoidance.

ETF#14-TLT-fell below QTI Bearish Yellow curve this past Tuesday. One-half of this confronting configuration expired this past Tue. The other half expired on Fri. It fell below NTI Green on Friday. Other attributes expired in their support of the Near-term hold signal.

Now there are only two issues confronting the stock market bull, as TLT’s confrontation expired on Friday.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull of all eleven major non-contrarian indices. They are down by an average of 0.6% since their respective bull signals on Apr 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear of contrarian VIX. It is up 2.7% since the bear signal on Apr 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for the eleven major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 18.1% since their bull signals an average of 26.9-weeks ago, annualizing at 35.2%.

Short-term Market Summary

Eleven non-contrarian Red Bull configurations remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. Utilities has held above QTI Red for six consecutive days after finding discomfort at that level the week before last.

Most of the major indices are above the Near-term Bullish Blue Curve. That is bullish.

Positive Vector Pressure and Red Bulls remain supportive of the Quick-term Bull.

Force Vectors continue moving bearishly. Fortunately, that movement is within bullish domains. Unfortunately, after moving laterally, they are succumbing, mildly, to bearish ambition.

Overall, short-term attributes are favoring the bull other than declining Force Vectors.

The key now is for Force Vectors to hold in bullish domains and the NTI Green curve needs to start rising. The bear will remain threatening until the latter occurs. Currently, only three NTI Green curves continue falling. They are Utilities, NASDAQ, and NAS100. That is somewhat interesting as the laggard and the leaders, respectively, are the weakest. Hopefully, for the bull, the leaders (NASDAQ and NAS100) are lagging.

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. Although the NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains, it is moving robustly. There is an increasing interest in the stock market. Some could argue that the earthquake and tsunami did not throw the stock market into a nasty bearish slide, which is bullish to many. However, the NYSE IVI recent robustness correlates very well with stock market bearishness.

Apr 8, 2011- Same as yesterday. The new NTI bull cycle is not threatened with this sort of behavior.

Apr 7, 2011- Mild volume on mild bearishness supports stability.

Apr 6, 2011-Volume was more aggressive on mild bullishness, adding support to the NTI baby bull.

Apr 5, 2011-Volume was slightly below average on mild bearishness. Same as yesterday.

Apr 4, 2011-Passive volume on flat behavior is not instructive to any directional intensity.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 5.7% since their buy signals an average of 6.3-weeks ago. This annualizes at 46.6%.

The NTI is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down by an average of 2.9% since their sell signals an average of 3.1-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 24.0% since their buy signals an average of 36.1-weeks ago. This annualizes at 34.8%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down 0.7% since the QTI sell signal 1.6-weeks ago.

One of the avoided ETF’s is non-contrarian ETF-EWJ#06-Japan. It is down 0.7% since the QTI signaled sell on Mar 14, 2011, although down 9.2% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on March 10, 2011. It was mildly bullish on Friday for the first time in several days.

Technically, the Near-term Indicant is not supporting a bullish bounce for EWJ at this time. EWJ had not endured significant bearishness, obviating resilience against justified dynamic bearishness. However, its NTI Blue curve collapsed this week.

The other avoided ETN is contrarian VXX, which will most likely abandoned by the Indicant at some future point. It does not track well with VIX, which is what it is suppose to do. It is down 0.6% since sell signal on Apr 1, 2011.

Short-term Summary: Force Vectors shifted in favor of bullish support on March 24, 2011. Although last Friday’s Near-term buy signals concur with bullish bias, the bear will remain threatening until the Near-term Indicant Green curve starts to rise.

The Near-term Indicant continues to avoid ETF’s that retain negative Vector Pressure or declining Force Vectors.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 47.7%, annualizing at 83.7% since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. Force fell below Pressure this past Wednesday, but not yet threatening.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 78.1% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 33.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $126.69 and still rising. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $143.66.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 6.1% since then, annualizing at 44.8%.

Near-term attributes for the next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure. Price is above NTI Blue and Pressure remains positive. Gold was solidly bullish the past four days.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a sell signal today (Fri Apr 8) by the Near-term Indicant. It fell below NTI Green. It is a Yellow Bear. Force is moving south. Vector Pressure fell into bearish domains and is negative. If all of this does not anger the TLT bull, this ETF will be configured for yet more bearishness.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled this past Wednesday since it fell below the QTI Yellow curve. It is down 0.7% since that sell signal.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 10, 2011 for ETF#31-QID. It is down 3.7% since the Mar 10, 2011 buy signal. Its Force is moving north, but losing momentum, but preventing sell signal with this rise.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Apr 1, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. The Short-term Indicant may discontinue tracking this ETN due to poor quality practices by its managers. It is down 0.6% since the sell signal.

Major ETF Events

Apr 8, 2011-Fri-TLT fell below NTI Green today. That is bullish for the stock market.

Apr 7, 2011-Thu-Declining Force Vectors are accelerating. Prices remain above NTI Blue. Therefore, this Force Vector behavior should be viewed as a mild threat to the NTI bullish cycle.

Apr 6, 2011-Wed-None

Apr 5, 2011-Tue-ETF#06-EWJ NTI bullish blue curve collapsed. It also became a Yellow Bear.

Apr 4, 2011-Mon-Contrarians, such as TLT and QID are holding, which conflicts with stock market’s bullish configurations.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 8, 2011. The inflection period has configured to have expired favoring the stock market bull, but keep in mind, this bull is young and vulnerable.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market was bearishly divergent this past week after enjoying bullish convergence in the prior two weeks.

Economic fundamentals continue improving, but international political conflicts are pestering. The Japanese crisis is discerning, but not completely configurable. U.S. political stalemating is always bullish.

The overall stock market has enjoyed bullish convergence in six of the past ten weeks. The stock market did not deliver the desired four consecutive weeks in this recent cycle. In spite of less than desired bullish attributes, there is little reason to fear a dynamic and aggressive bear at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The presidential pre-election year stock market bull remains in tact and in full conformance to historical standards. There is no technical support for stock market bearish behavior. Those few pestering short-term attributes supporting the stock market bear expired on April 1, 2011, but they lack vibrancy the of prior expirations since this bull’s birth in March 2009.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions have yet to produce significant increases in volume. Volume increases were detected four weeks ago that correlated with bearish behavior. Even with those increases, though, that volume behavior was not dynamic.

As stated the past 79-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle. International tensions, however, are adding a mild threat to bullish commentary, but interpretations of bullish support also make sense.

Political phenomena in the U.S., coupled with low interest rates, continue in support of the bull. The world’s third largest economy in Japan is adding a new twist. With that, though, one may accurately conclude crisis introduces opportunity.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation is an accurate descriptor of the current economy. That, coupled with unrest in the Middle East and the Japanese nuclear crisis, could inspire the bear to gain traction. Keep in mind, though, inflation is inevitable in the future unless Congress is successful in reducing trillions of dollars from the national debt. Recent political rhetoric is increasingly passive toward that amount. Executed passivity toward debt reductions will continue to feed inflationary potential. That is the hidden tax, imposed by those, who you elected as your representatives to the U.S. Congress and the executive branches of government.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

04/10/2011

Apr 3, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 01 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Crisis Introduces Opportunity

ETF#06-EWJ-Japan received a Near-term Indicant sell signal on March 10, 2011. It is down by only 6.3% since that sell signal. The earthquake and tsunami occurred the next day on March 11, 2011.

Some have asked the editor, how did you know there was going to be a massive earthquake and destructive tsunami in Japan. We did not know. It was just coincidence. The study of seismology has always been interesting, but not used in one of the Indicant’s eight dimensional data arrays. However, we are not above studying it and considering inclusion. Discovering causation is very difficult. Identifying correlation is easier. If the moon cycle correlated with stock market behavior, we would use it. (By the way, it does not; at least on an annual basis. We checked.)

During early March, many internationally tracked ETF’s were receiving sell signals. The stock market was enduring a bearish spurt at that time and the international funds were the weakest. Some of that weakness related to Middle Eastern unrest, which correlated with rising fuel costs. Some countries, such as Japan, are not resource rich and endure higher dependencies on foreign oil. That weakness, though, correlates very well to their tremendous productivity advantages over the rest of the world. Such sectored funds were therefore weaker due to rising oil prices and received sell signals. Those sell signals were the first since last August.

Even Brazil, which has been strongly bullish the past ten years, endured a Near-term sell signal in early March. It is resource rich and thus not related to rising oil prices. Brazil exports oil and is a beneficiary to rising prices. It is ETF#21. One can suspect it may have been victimized by suspicions of OPEC’s continuing significance with the Middle Eastern unrest. Riots and civil strife quite often result in restructuring of economic and political influences. OPEC has profound abilities to starve the petro supply chain. However, if honest capitalistic minded people were somehow to conquer Middle Eastern politics, OPEC would be dissolved.

In spite of the natural disaster in Japan, the stock market bull demonstrated significant resilience in the face of significant damage to the world’s third largest economy. One reason for this resilience is non-dilettante management teams in Japan’s corporate structure. In essence, the stock market recognizes that Japanese management is the best. If any country can survive such catastrophic events, the Japanese can. Many of the common stocks based in Japan maintained higher performance levels than their American competitors in spite of the earthquake and tsunami. The stock market senses they will emerge even stronger than before.

Furthermore, this crisis can lead to innovations and markets. In other words, with crisis, opportunities loom. The stock market bull is an apparent believer of this phenomenon.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

NAS100-#06-CEPH, Cephalon, received a buy signal this weekend. The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell just three weeks ago as its Force Vector was in bearish domains and its price had fallen below the QTI Bearish yellow curve. Its stock price jumped 31.3% last week. As you can see from the chart, it has a history of bouncing after falling below the QTI Bearish yellow curve. It fell by about the same approximate amount three weeks ago. If buying, keep in mind, the floor traders are having some fun bouncing this stock around during the height of basketball season. As you can see, this stock has been relatively flat for the past ten years or so.

NAS100-#23-LOGI fell 19.3% last week with most of the drop occurring this past Friday. This stock has a bullish trend, although enduring an argumentative bearish cycle. The Mid-term Indicant formally recognizes it as a bullish cycle. Its Vector Pressure remains positive. Although it has an adequate balance sheet, some fund managers make their hype announcements; part of the manipulation practices. Use news to drive the price down so they (the manipulators) can buy more at the reduced price. The Mid-term Indicant continues to hold based on trend and Vector Pressure. Keep in mind, though, sometimes the hype has merit. You probably stopped out, but the Mid-term Indicant continues to signal hold. Therefore, buying with a relatively tight stop loss would not be out of line.

I-STK-#32 –HYGS skyrocketed by 53.0% last week. Although its Force Vector is in bullish domains, Pressure remains in bearish domains. It has a below average balance sheet, but not as bad as others in its industry group, although horrible within its sector. The Mid-term Indicant continues signaling avoid for this stock. It is down 91.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on May 19, 2006. This company has potential. At one time, it enjoyed above average management and vestiges of that may remain. Rising energy costs and inflationary potential is contributing to this recent rise in stock price.

I-STK-#04-MTLQQ.PK fell 18.8% last week. It did not trade this past Friday. It fell from $0.05 to $0.04. This is the old stock symbol from its liquidation. The Mid-term Indicant last signaled sell for GM on Nov 16, 2007. It is down 99.9% since then. Look at its chart. The Mid-term Indicant does not track the new stock under the symbol, GM. However, rest assured, it will be bearish. We do have a few open slots for tracking GM, but debating on its worthiness. The company is simply no good. Violating the laws of capitalism only weakened that company more than it was before the bail out. Bailing out incompetence perpetuates and worsens it. The next recessionary cycle will be worse than the last on this company.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 296 of the 340-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 53.0%. That annualizes to 47.0%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 296-stocks and funds for an average of 58.7-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 38-stocks and funds of 340-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 42.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 101.5-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Apr 2, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 226-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 38.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 33.1% (annualized at 43.5%). There were 90-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 34.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 81.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 21-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Apr 3, 2009. They were up by an average of 115.4% (annualized at 64.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 93.8-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 322-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 33.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 43.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued dominating on this weekend in 2009, while petitioning a stock market bottom.

There were 202-stocks and funds with hold signals on Mar 28, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 120.9-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 128.8% (annualized at 55.4%). There were 202-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 21.8% from their respective sell signals an average of 24.1-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 238-sell signals in the prior 20-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March 2008 that triggered some of the buy signals.

On Mar 30, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 273-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 121.9% (annualized at 61.3%) since their buy signals an average of 103.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 70-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 5.6% since their sell signals an average of 12.0-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2007.

Five years ago, on Mar 31, 2006, there were 282-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 129.4% (annualized at 68.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of 98.6-weeks earlier. There were 56-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 9.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 24.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

On Apr 1, 2005, there were 288-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 87.2%, annualizing at 59.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 76.5-weeks earlier. There were 87-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 29.1% since their sell signals an average of 52.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 252-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 2, 2004. They were up by an average of 77.9%, annualizing at 82.2%, since their buy signals 49.3-weeks earlier. The 21-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 27.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 40.5-weeks earlier. There were 23-buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2004.

On Apr 4, 2003, there were 233-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 21.8% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 13.9-weeks earlier. That annualized at 81.3%. There were 45-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 26.3% since their sell signals an average of 26.5-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds in 2002-late 2004. There were nine buy signals in addition to 120-buy signals in the prior two weeks and nine sell signals on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was six weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Short-term attributes supporting the recent bearish spurt expired this past week. The Mid-term Indicant attributes supporting the stock market bull remain strong.

The mid-term election year continues offering traction toward stock market bullishness. Much of this gain correlated with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemate. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish. Mid-eastern unrest will resume its threat to the stock market bull, as a function of speculation of those empty souls who are attempting to gain control of petro flow into the capital markets. The problem with economic leeches and tyrants is their limited ability to see the big picture. In the end, their methods result in devolved processes.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest, but they should be tight. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 69.9% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 150.4% and the S&P500 is up 71.5% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 162.4% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011. Much of that depends, however, on unrest in the Middle East, related oil prices, political mumbo-jumbo by U.S. politicians, and the Japanese crisis.

The NASDAQ is down 44.7% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 12.8% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 5.6% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulations shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 25.5% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 4.5% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 1.0%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 0.6% and finishing up for that year by 1.4%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was down 8.8% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 6.1% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 0.3% at this time in 2007, finishing up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 10.9% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was down 1.6% on this weekend in 2009, but up significantly on this weekending date in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 5.9% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 12.6% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 2.4% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 14.9% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The S&P600-small cap index is up 0.6% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Interestingly, the NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is now up by 4.6% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400 is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that is also above pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 7.6% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. The S&P600 joined ranks of bullish behavior this past week and now up 0.6% since its prior weekly close on July 19, 2007. The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 18.5% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

Most major indices last cyclical bottom occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 89.0% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 119.9% and the S&P500 is up 96.9% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 146.5% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-January 2010 bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the shorter near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull. Middle Eastern unrest, although, is a bit threatening to the stock market bull, depending though on the nature of that unrest. If oil prices skyrocket, the bear will be delighted. If democracy expands in that region, the bull will be delighted. Current parameters suggest stock market bearishness with maximal threats to the Saudi Kingdom, which is a stabilizing force in that region. The Japanese nuclear crisis remains elusive, even though related Japanese ETF’s received Short-term Indicant sell signal four weeks ago. Interestingly, all international related ETF’s received sell signals well ahead of the Japanese nuclear crisis. Since then, a few internationally related ETF’s have received short-term buy signals.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

As promised by Bernanke, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. It endured significant bearishness seven weeks ago and holding there after a bit of mild volatility. Bernanke, apparently, remains concerned with the economic outlook. All of this continues suggesting few demand problems for the T-Bill. The 2012 forecasted values do not yet indicate any significant increases. Keep in mind these forecasts are purely statistical, but qualitative inquiries are not suggesting different projections at this time.

However, the 6-month CD yield increased significantly 18-weeks ago, suggesting desired longer-term upward pressures by the banks. Even with all that, it remains depressed and has been flat since then. It fell 10-basis points six weeks ago and another five points this past week. In essence, a level of stability has been found after wild variations in such a minor investment vehicle.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status ten weeks ago and holding at that level, but remains with weakening trend and weakening mid-term cycle. There is no good reason to assume its long-term cyclical decline will reverse. However, the Bullish Red Curve shifted slightly to the north two weeks ago. The Canadian dollar, like the Yen, had been stable for several weeks with a mild strengthening bias, although weakening a bit the past two weeks. They both accelerated their strength from mild status the past four weeks. Both the Yen and Canadian dollar’s cyclical direction and trend remain bullish. The CA$ tends to parallel oil prices. The forecast for the CA$ continues with projected strengthening. The Japanese Yen trend and mid-term cycle continues with strengthening trend, but has been trading in a shallow zone the past several weeks. The Yen continues to strengthen in spite of the earthquake and tsunami. G7 intervention is holding it up very well and it continues to strengthen.

Overall, the US dollar threatens to continue strengthening, but continues to weaken against the Japanese Yen (high productivity) and the Canadian dollar (resource rich).

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull to boot in spite of near-term cyclical bearishness. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to be challenged, based on political dynamics. However, statistical bullishness remains in tact. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable, but enjoying steady increases the past several weeks. Middle Eastern unrest is adding a bit of pizzazz to those increases.

As stated by the Indicant for several months, it is priced where the Kingdom finds comfort at around $80/bbl, albeit departing on the high end of his desired tolerance levels the past several days. It has been nudging a bit higher than that for the past several weeks. It achieved Red Bull status several weeks ago for the first time since 2007. The high-end forecast continues to project $120/bbl by 2012. The Saudi Kingdom will have to approve that, though. Middle Eastern unrest offer additional pizzazz to its recent bullishness.

Commodity prices continue their bearish behavior the past few weeks due to economic threats from the tsunami. Significant bullish behavior, however, continues along the mid-term to long-term cycle. They are not yet contributory to inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are enjoying Red Bull status.  This remains economically bullish. Spot prices have expressed stability for the past few weeks.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, you will find the Reuter’s UK Commodities Index continues moving north since early 2009. It is a Red Bull. It continues to skyrocket, setting a new all time high during the week of November 8, 2010. It continued setting new highs until the past few weeks. Some of this is attributable to the crisis in Japan. Questionable economic projections and default threats from Portugal and others in Europe continue to pester. It remains economically bullish with inflationary considerations later. The CRB Bridge Futures continues its shift from waffling to more bullish aggression. It is also a solid Red Bull in spite of softening the past two weeks due to the Japanese crisis.

This paragraph remains the same. Commodities, overall, discontinued behavior consistent with uncertainty in favor of outright bullishness several weeks ago. Recent bearish behavior remains irrelevant. “Extract baby extract” seems to be an evolving theme as more people around the planet are moving toward capitalistic progressions in spite of American waffling.

Mortgage rates remain configured with countering the prevailing bearish trend. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. They are no longer Red Bulls and configuring with more bearishness.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable.

Overall, hard economic data continues with stability, although cyclically increasing, but softening the past several weeks. As stated the past few weeks, they could fall a bit in the coming weeks, but the cycle and trend are nowhere near a state of reversal. That is non-bearish, but lending support to longer-term inflationary potential. However, rising productivity from increased interests in capitalism around the world could significantly dampen inflationary threats. That, coupled with U.S. political dynamics of potential massive sovereign debt reductions, suggests dynamic bullishness. 

At some point, the U.S. Congress will learn they have no influence on how China, India, and other countries manage their economies, which will eventually enjoy larger economies than the U.S. at some point. If those rapidly developing economies retain a penchant for capitalism, rest assured prices for all commodities will escalate. However, rising productivity associated with capitalists could dampen the effects on consumers. These potential economic shifts are unparalleled in the annals of history.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 17.8%, annualizing at 32.7% since then. It was solidly bullish the past two weeks. The Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 24.2% since then, annualizing at 15.2%. This lazy fund has been bearish in seven of the past 12-weeks. It was also solidly bullish the past two weeks.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 35.6%, annualized at 65.3% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 58.3%, annualized at 107.0%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 38.9% since then, annualizing at 80.0%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 52.7% since that buy signal, annualizing at 96.8%.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 48.2% since then, annualizing at 87.6%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 72.6% since that buy signal, annualizing at 31.1%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It is up 2.8%, annualizing at 24.0%, since its most recent Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All the major indices are up by an average of 29.7% since their bull signals an average of 51.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 30.0%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $32,459,646. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,882,964 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $157,465. That beats buy and hold’s $130,513 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $238,609. That beats buy and hold’s $96,727 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 76.3% since then.

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled bull for QID on March 18, 2011. This remains configured as a function of a short-term stock market bearish spurt. It will most likely receive a sell signal early this coming week. The Mid-term Indicant is not supportive of an aggressive and sustainable bear at this time. Consequently, the Mid-term Indicant remains unable to signal buy for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short at this time.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal. It is no longer getting close to a buy signal, as it appears to have succumbed to the stock market bull for the time being. It may not receive a buy signal until 2013, which is the next post election year.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 327.6% (annualized at 16.8%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,013-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

VIX’s NTI Bullish Blue collapsed today (Fri, Apr 1). Although its Force Vector is rising, it has been too passive doing so in bearish domains.

Volume was up on mild bullishness.

Non-contrarian Force Vectors are not falling. Some are rising while others are moving laterally. That is a bullish configuration with respect to short-term cycles.

All major indices are NTI Blue Bulls.

QID and TLT, both contrarians remain with mild bullish support, but risks remain too high to continue avoiding non-contrarians with respect to the near-term cycles. QID and TLT continue receiving hold signals, but most likely will receive sell signals early next week.

Utilities moved above the QTI Bullish Red curve for the third time this week. That is bullish.

Overall, there are a few mixed attributes, but too many support a renewed NTI Bull cycle. Consequently, there were several Near-term bull/buy signals today.

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled eleven new bulls and one new bear. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

All Force Vectors are in bullish domains and higher than Pressure. No attributes remain in support of the former Near-term bear signal. Thus, new NTI bulls were generated today.

The Near-term Indicant signaled bear today for the VIX.

The Quick-term Indicant generated one bull signal and one bear signal today.

In addition to the bull signal, the Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for ten major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 20.8% since their bull signals an average of 28.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 38.1%.

Short-term Market Summary

Eleven non-contrarian Red Bull configurations remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. Utilities crossed above Red twice this week and the next day fell below Red. Rather than being uncomfortable with that configuration, it again crossed QTI Red today.

Force Vectors did not shift back to the south, as anticipated. They are moving strongly to the north after pausing for a few days this past week. VIX Pressure remains in bullish domains offering a mild threat to the stock market bull. Again, the stock market bull appears to strong to the bothered by that.

VIX Force is rising, but it has been excessively passive in doing so. It received a bear signal today. Its NTI Blue curve collapsed. Sometimes that triggers a bullish response but configurations are too risky for continuing with the bull signal.

Short-term attributes are again favoring the bull.

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. Although the NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains, it is moving robustly. There is an increasing interest in the stock market. Some could argue that the earthquake and tsunami did not throw the stock market into a nasty bearish slide, which is bullish to many. However, the NYSE IVI recent robustness correlates very well with stock market bearishness. Statistical bias favors short-term bearishness as opposed to belief systems.

Apr 1, 2011-Fri-Volume was aggressive on mild bullish behavior. That suggests mildness may be replaced with greater dynamics.

Mar 31, 2011-Thu-Volume was up on mild/bearish behavior. Stock market inflection point now underway.

Mar 30, 2011-Wed-Volume was up mildly on mold bullish behavior, but it remains depressed. Favorable economic news did not trigger increased stock market news.

Mar 29, 2011-Tue-Mild volume on mild bullishness obviates limited commitment on bullish or bearish direction.

Mar 28, 2011-Mon-Low volume on mild bearishness suggests continuing lack of commitment on any directional intensity.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated 19-buy signals and one sell signal.

In addition to the buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for eight ETF’s. They are up by an average of 19.9% since their buy signals an average of 19.3-weeks ago. This annualizes at 53.7%.

The NTI is avoiding four ETF’s. They are up by an average of 0.3% since their sell signals an average of 4.8-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up 23.1% since their buy signals an average of 34.1-weeks ago. This annualizes at 35.3%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding one ETF. It is ETF-EWJ#06-Japan. It is up 2.5% since the QTI signaled sell on Mar 14, 2011, although down 6.3% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on March 10, 2011.

Technically, the Near-term Indicant is not supporting a bullish bounce for EWJ at this time. EWJ has not endured solid bearishness, offering significant resilience against justified dynamic bearishness.

Short-term Summary: Force Vectors shifted in favor of bullish support on March 24, 2011. The few attributes that resisted buy signals abdicated their cautious configurations today.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 48.2%, annualizing at 87.6% since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. Force remains in bullish domains, supporting bullish position, but it is now starting to decline, but non-threatening to this strong bull.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 72.6% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 31.1%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $126.15 and still rising. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $139.20.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 2.8% since then, annualizing at 24.0%.

Near-term attributes for next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure. Price is above NTI Blue and Pressure remains positive.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal from both the Quick-term Indicant and Short-term Indicant on Mar 10, 2011 after falling over 8.0% from its Quick-term sell signal on Oct 14, 2010 and basically flat since the Near-term sell signal on Nov 15, 2010. It is no longer a Yellow Bear and too many attributes are shifting in favor of bullish behavior. It is up 0.1% since buy signals on Mar 10, 2011, annualizing at 2.0%. Its bullish configuration and contrarian nature suggest the stock market bear is not through with its shenanigans. Its configuration remains bullish and possible for it to be non-contrarian for a few more days.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 10, 2011 for ETF#31-QID. It was down over 30.0% since its October 14, 2010 sell signal. The overall stock market is somewhat supportive of QID’s bullish desires. It is down 5.3% since the Mar 10, 2011 buy signal. Its cycle of Force is bearishly mature, suggesting a bullish response is nearing. That is unlikely, but the Short-term Indicant did not signal sell today. It most likely will next week.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell today for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. The Short-term Indicant may discontinue tracking this ETN due to poor quality practices by its managers.

Major ETF Events

Apr 1, 2011-Fri-The Near-term generated several bull/buy signals. Configurations suggest this is no April Fool’s joke.

Mar 31, 2011-Thu-Utilities fell below QTI Bullish Red today after climbing above yesterday. That is the second time this occurred this week.

Mar 30, 2011-Wed-Contrarian TLT was not contrarian. It has a bullish configuration and it is contrarian, which means the stock market should be molested by the bear.

Mar 29, 2011-Tue-Force Vectors did not shift south. A few more days with that configuration will inspire the stock market bull.

Mar 28, 2011-Mon-None

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 1, 2011. The inflection period has configured to have expired favoring the stock market bull.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed bullish convergence the past two weeks. That follows two consecutive weeks of combined bearish convergence/divergence. Four consecutive weeks of bearish convergence is indeed bearish. So, the string is broken. Therefore, there is no imminent threat to the Mid-term Indicant’s bull signal. On the contrary, the stock market has enjoyed two consecutive weeks of bullish convergence. Two more weeks will foster dynamic bullishness that could last through 2012.

Economic fundamentals continue improving, but international political conflicts are pestering. The Japanese crisis is discerning, but not completely configurable. U.S. political stalemating is always bullish.

The overall stock market has enjoyed bullish convergence in six of the past nine weeks. The stock market did not deliver the desired four consecutive weeks in this recent cycle. In spite of less than desired bullish attributes, there is little reason to fear a dynamic and aggressive bear at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The presidential pre-election year stock market bull remains in tact and in full conformance to historical standards. There is no technical support for stock market bearish behavior. Those few pestering short-term attributes supporting the stock market bear expired this past Friday.

Expected near-term bearishness occurred early this past week, but it was quickly countered with the resilient stock market bull.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions have yet to produce significant increases in volume. Volume increases were detected three weeks ago that correlated with bearish behavior. Even with those increases, though, that volume behavior was not dynamic. However, last Friday’s volume was up again as the Indicant Volume Indicator continues moving robustly.

As stated the past 78-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle. International tensions, however, are adding a mild threat to bullish commentary, but interpretations of bullish support also make sense.

Political phenomena in the U.S., coupled with low interest rates, continue in support of the bull. The world’s third largest economy in Japan is adding a new twist. With that, though, one may accurately conclude crisis introduces opportunity.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation is an accurate descriptor of the current economy. That, coupled with unrest in the Middle East and the Japanese nuclear crisis, could inspire the bear to gain traction. Keep in mind, though, inflation is inevitable in the future unless Congress is successful in reducing 2.5-trillion dollars from the national debt. Recent political rhetoric is increasingly passive toward that amount. Executed passivity toward debt reductions will continue to feed inflationary potential. That is the hidden tax, imposed by those, who you elected as your representatives to the U.S. Congress and the executive branches of government.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

04/03/2011

©All material contained in this Web site is copyright protected. Any redistribution of any information in this Web site is expressly prohibited unless written authorization is granted by the publisher  of Indicant.Net.

Additional Hyperlinks - Just click on any of the below to get where you want to go.

Become a Member | DJIA History Since 1900 | Back Issues | Mutual Fund Listing | Contact Us | Historical Performance Metric | Performance Summary for Stocks and Funds | Current Performance Report Card | Sector Funds That Did Well in Bear Market of 2000-2001 | ETF Tour| Option Stalking |Stocks | Ezine | Stocks in Spotlight | Indicant Volume Indicator | Perspectives | Seasonality

- **** -    -*****-