August Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Updates

Aug 31, 2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 08, Issue 24 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

Today's Report

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Six of thirty; only one non-contrarian red bull is required for bullish support. Bullish bias support continues.

Quick-term Yellow Bears: Four; non-bearish support barely continues.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: There is minimal non-bearish support.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Continues supporting non-bearish behavior, but threatened.

Force Vectors: Now shifting south with increased potential for bearish support. Configurations are mixed with some favoring bull and others favoring bear. This divergence suggests market indecisiveness.

Vector Pressure: Only four in bullish domains; threatening bullish bias. Bull/bear battles tend to rage with this configuration. This remains a threat on behalf of the bear.

Long-term Hold Positions: Safe, but no longer solidly safe.

Immediate Tactics: Preserve Cash/Discontinue writing covered call options at this time due to threat of increased volatility (and/or bullish bounce).

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish, but in a battle with the bear.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakening.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Increasing volatility is favorable.

Volume: Configurations mixed.

Comment from August 22, 2007

Several ETF Force Vectors are configuring in support of the bull, while others remain configured in support of the bear. The divergence suggests an indecisive market. However, the near-term bearish configurations, although still threatening, are not as committed to bearish expressions as they were in late July and early August.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on July 26, 2007 for both the Dow and NASDAQ. They are down 0.9% and down 0.1%, respectively, since then.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s are still diverging, which continues to suggest market indecisiveness. Interestingly, that divergence was highlighted with Thursday’s mild Dow30 bearishness and mild NASDAQ bullishness. As stated on last Friday’s (08/24/07) aggressive bullish expression, light volume indicated limited conviction to that bullishness. Bearish behavior earlier this past week supported that claim, although that bearishness was also not supported with high volume, suggesting limited bearish sustainability.

As stated the past few weeks, do not be surprised at fluttering (jittery) stock market behavior. This Friday’s aggressive bullish behavior was again not supported with significant volume, suggesting an emotionally-based rally. Please read on..

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 65.4% (annualized at 27.6%) since their respective buy signals an average of 121.9-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding four ETF’s. They are up 0.5% since their sell signals an average of 4.8-weeks ago.

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up an average of 71.1% (annualized 33.2%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 110.0-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there are two avoid signals. They are down by an average of 1.5% since their sell signals an average of 3.8-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 17-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 21.0% (annualized at 24.5%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 44.1-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 13-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 1.7% since their sell signals an average of 4.4-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are eleven conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. Although less harmonious in support of directional intensity in the past several weeks, the Quick-term bias shift on August 15, 2006 remains in favor of the bull. Keep in mind, recent bearish cyclical behavior has not yet shifted trend and bias. Please read on.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Six of the 30-ETF’s are below their bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 5.4%. The indices are increasingly vulnerable to bearish threats. This attribute is not configured with support for sustainable bearish behavior at this time, but the threat remains.

Only six of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves. This is down by one from yesterday and barely providing bullish assurance. All thirty ETF average positions are 2.4% below their bullish red curves, which continues to show minimal bullish support.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. As stated the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. This repeated contact supported the underlying bullish bias until the recent dry-spell. Non-contact with the breakout lines the past 27-consecutive trading-days fueled bearish confidence, which was expressed, but without gaining complete dominance.

The average distance from breakout contact is 6.8%. This remains in support of the quick-term bullish bias, but weakening in that support.

None of the ETF’s are contacting breakdown lines, providing non-bearish support.

The average distance from the price and breakdown is 19.0%. This configuration provides non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

Breakout/breakdown differential point variance is 12.2%, which still favors bull and maintaining your longer-term holdings. However, this differential is weakened in support of bullish bias.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

Six of the thirty ETF Force Vectors continue toward bullish domains. You have noticed a drop off the past few days, which is not offering bullish support. The inflection point is underway. It could last only a few days or for several weeks. Bullish or bearish cyclicality follows inflection points, while jittery behavior is a common attribute during this phase. Please read on.

Force Vector cycles are extremely fast, seldom lasting more than six days. A new cycle is underway and is configured non-bullishly. If they move sharply to the south, the bear will gain momentum. The current non-bullish cycle is three days old.

Force Vectors are mixed with some favoring bullish behavior and some favoring bearish behavior. This divergence invites volatility without obvious directional behavior.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were three put option buy signals today.

Only four ETF Vector Pressure remain in bullish domains. This remains exceedingly low and not offering bullish support. This attribute is very near bearish support. As stated the past few days, there is little reason to expect bullish dominance with peaking (now declining) Force Vectors and negative (bearish) Vector Pressure.

It is common for bull/bear battles when Vector Pressure is being threatened from its support of the prevailing bias. This should enhance volatility, which is favorable for naked option plays.

The bull would face a major defeat if all Vector Pressure falls into bearish domains. It is common for increased volatility around inflection points, where the bull and bear battle.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The shift from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15, 2006. As stated the past several days, the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models continue suggesting a bullish bias for longer term holdings. The micro-bearish spurt behavior in the face of the bullish bias remains threatening but several attributes are shifting their favor away from the bear, but not yet offering significant support to the bull. The market is wishy-washy, right now. Do not be surprised at fluttering behavior. If Force Vectors continue to rise, which is not likely, expect complete domination by the bull.

Vector Pressure is a major concern and that coupled with declining Force Vectors suggests the market is battling through an inflection point. Inflection points occur when the market is directionally non-committal.

This paragraph is repeated from June 26, 2007 daily stock market report. Depth is a relative term. For those of you who bought several months ago, holding until bearish yellow is achieved will be accomplished with ease. For those of you who bought in the past few weeks may not prefer to wait for the victor of the bear/bull battle that typically occurs at the bearish yellow curve.

Message from August 21, 2007. It is recommended to discontinue writing covered call options due to increased probability of near-term volatility. Although Vector Pressure supports that, the probability of increased market volatility warrants passivity.

The Quick-term Bull remains in tact.

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is not avoiding QQQQ, which does not support holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Happy Investing,

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

08/31/07

Aug 30, 2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 08, Issue 23 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

Today's Report

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Three of thirty; only one non-contrarian red bull is required for bullish support.

Quick-term Yellow Bears: Six; non-bearish support barely continues.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: There is minimal non-bearish support.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Continues supporting non-bearish behavior, but threatened.

Force Vectors: Now shifting south with increased potential for bearish support.

Vector Pressure: Only two in bullish domains; threatening bullish bias. Bull/bear battles tend to rage with this configuration. This remains a threat on behalf of the bear.

Long-term Hold Positions: Safe, but no longer solidly safe.

Immediate Tactics: Preserve Cash/Discontinue writing covered call options at this time due to threat of increased volatility (and/or bullish bounce).

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish, but in a battle with the bear.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakening.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Increasing volatility is favorable.

Volume: Configurations mixed.

Comment from August 22, 2007

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on July 26, 2007 for both the Dow and NASDAQ. They are down 1.7% and down 1.3%, respectively, since then.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s are still diverging, which continues to suggest market indecisiveness. Interestingly, that divergence was highlighted with today’s mild Dow30 bearishness and mild NASDAQ bullishness. As stated on last Friday’s aggressive bullish expression, light volume indicated limited conviction to that bullishness. Bearish behavior this week supported that claim, although that bearishness was also not supported with high volume, suggesting limited bearish sustainability. As stated the past few weeks, do not be surprised at fluttering (jittery) stock market behavior. Please read on..

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There was one buy signal and no sell signals. In addition to the buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 64.8% (annualized at 26.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of 126.7-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding four ETF’s. They are down 1.1% since their sell signals an average of 4.6-weeks ago.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There was one buy signal and one sell signal. In addition to the buy signal, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up an average of 70.8% (annualized 32.0%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 113.7-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signal, there is one avoid signal. It is down by 6.8% since its sell signal 7.3-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 17-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 19.3% (annualized at 22.5%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 44.0-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 13-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 0.3% since their sell signals an average of 4.2-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are thirteen conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. Although less harmonious in support of directional intensity, the Quick-term bias shift on August 15, 2006 remains in favor of the bull. Keep in mind, recent bearish cyclical behavior has not yet shifted trend and bias. Please read on.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Six of the 30-ETF’s are below their bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 4.0%. The indices are increasingly vulnerable to bearish threats. This attribute is not configured with support for sustainable bearish behavior at this time, but the threat remains.

Only three of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves. This is down by one from yesterday and barely providing bullish assurance. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.7% below their bullish red curves, which continues to show minimal bullish support.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. As stated the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. This repeated contact supported the underlying bullish bias until the recent dry-spell. Non-contact with the breakout lines the past 26-consecutive trading-days fueled bearish confidence, which was expressed, but without gaining complete dominance.

The average distance from breakout contact is 8.0%. This remains in support of the quick-term bullish bias, but weakening in that support.

None of the ETF’s are contacting breakdown lines, providing non-bearish support.

The average distance from the price and breakdown is 17.4%. This configuration provides non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

Breakout/breakdown differential point variance is 9.4%, which still favors bull and maintaining your longer-term holdings. However, this differential is weakened in support of bullish bias.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

Fifteen of the thirty ETF Force Vectors continue toward bullish domains. You have noticed a drop off the past few days, which is not offering bullish support. The inflection point is underway. It could last only a few days or for several weeks. Bullish or bearish cyclicality follows inflection points, while jittery behavior is a common attribute during this phase. Please read on.

Force Vectors are mixed with some favoring bullish behavior and some favoring bearish behavior. This divergence invites volatility without obvious directional behavior.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were two put option buy signals today.

Only two ETF Vector Pressure remain in bullish domains. This remains exceedingly low and not offering bullish support. This attribute is very near bearish support. As stated the past few days, there is little reason to expect bullish dominance with peaking (now declinining) Force Vectors and negative (bearish) Vector Pressure.

It is common for bull/bear battles when Vector Pressure is being threatened from its support of the prevailing bias. This should enhance volatility, which is favorable for naked option plays.

The bull would face a major defeat if all Vector Pressure falls into bearish domains. It is common for increased volatility around inflection points, where the bull and bear battle.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The Quick-term Bull remains in tact.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Happy Investing,

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

08/30/07

Aug 29, 2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 08, Issue 22 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

Today's Report

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Two of thirty; only one non-contrarian red bull is required for bullish support.