Dec 31,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 12, Issue
21 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Five of thirty; three are non-contrarian. This bullish attribute remains
weakened, while maintaining modest bullish support.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Nine of thirty. Attribute remains configured with modest non-bearish
support.
Quick-term
Non-Bearishness:
Weak; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary
weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Both major indices approached lower trading range limit, but again did not
find comfort. They responded with bullishness, but with little dynamic
ambition or support.
Force
Vectors:
A new bearish cycle has begun, but from deep inside bullish domains. The
bear will have difficulty dominating unless they fall into bearish
domains.
Vector
Pressure:
Seventeen in
bullish domains. They are increasing and supporting bullish bias.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Continue
holding.
Immediate
Tactics:
Vector Pressure is supporting more aggressive buying.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Configurations are mixed with mild bullish bias.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
Bullish bias
prevailing, but weakened.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write
any covered options in this environment.
Volume:
Configurations are neutral.
September
17, 2007-Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….
September
18, 2007-The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not jittery behavior.
It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of the heart and soul
of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!
October 19,
2007-Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the face of the
underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise if this
bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest it is
not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.
November 7,
2007-The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting the upper
trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the underlying
bullish trend.
November 9,
2007-Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the bullish trend
has not been reversed.
December 7,
2007-The major indices contacted the lower trading range limit a few days
ago and bounced solidly to the north. They are now trekking north. There
is no guarantee they will again interact with the upper trading range
limit, but the probability is high they will during the few remaining
weeks of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.
December 14,
2007. The probability of the major indices interacting with the lower
trading range limit increased today over interaction with the upper
trading range limit.
December 18,
2007. Bullish response occurred today (Dec 18) reducing probability of
penetrating the lower trading range limit.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bull on Thursday, December 6, 2007 for
both major indices. The DJIA is down 2.6% and the NASDAQ is down 2.1%,
respectively, since then.
From Dec 11,
2007 daily stock market report, it was stated “a continuation of this bull
cycle should test the upper trading range limit again. This should occur
before the heart and soul of bullish seasonality concludes in late January
2008.” Very recent volume has been more supportive of the bear.
From Dec 20,
2007 daily stock market report. Configurations are suggesting increasing
heart and soul of bullish seasonality influence.
From Dec 21,
2007. The Dow’s 200-plus point jump today substantiates the heart and soul
of bullish seasonality influence.
From Dec 28,
2007. Lethargic volume due to holidays is generating unnatural market
forces. This is common when a few traders are more likely to manipulate
market values. The market should enjoy natural dynamics on January 3,
2008.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s continue configuring lethargically. This
is influenced by holiday volume. As stated the past several days, the
current lethargic cycle coincides with bullish market behavior. That
suggests less than desired momentum for sustaining the underlying bullish
bias, but also not encouraging to bearish ambition. A continuation of
cyclical and seasonal influences should favor the bull, regardless of
bearish economic fundamentals, for the next few weeks.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the
SQI is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 72.5%
(annualized at 27.6%) since their respective buy signals an average of
135.2-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding
six ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 5.5% since their
sell signals an average of 7.7-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up an
average of 93.4% (annualized 36.7%) since the STI signaled, buy, an
average of 130.9-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there
are six ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 5.8%
since their sell signals an average of 7.7-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and two sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 20.6% (annualized at 26.7%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 39.8-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signals, the Quick-term
Indicant is avoiding five ETF’s. They are down by an average of 4.1% since
their sell signals an average of 6.3-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There are
four conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term
Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This
harmonious relationship, although weakened with increased volatility in
2007, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August
15, 2006.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Nine of the
30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average
relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 4.2%.
This is providing non-bearish support.
Five of the
ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive
of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 4.1% below their
bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above
bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance. Two of the five red
bulls are non-contrarian.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
None of the
thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines.There is no bullish
support from this attribute at this time.
This was the
fourteenth consecutive trading day of non-contrarian non-contact. This
non-bullish bias suggests shallower bull cycles on a near-term basis. This
attribute is non supportive of the bull.
As stated
the past several months, the high concentration of non-contrarian
breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in
fifty-nine of the last eighty-four trading days supports bullish bias.
This attribute is losing influence in support of the bull.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 9.5%. This remains in support of the
quick-term bullish bias, but weakened.
None of the
ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines, which is non-bearish.
The average
distance from the price and breakdown is 16.4%. This configuration is
providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.
The gap
between breakout and breakdown is again shrinking. This suggests weakening
bullish bias.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
Twenty-three
Force Vectors are moving bullishly, supporting the underlying bullish
bias. The bullish cycle has matured and appears complete. There is little
bullish support on a near-term basis. Keep in mind these cycles last from
an average of four to six days. A new bear cycle has begun with a
reduction from twenty-five bullish Force Vectors last Friday.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There was one
call option buy signal and two put option buy signals after Monday’s
close. This brings the total call option buy signals to sixteen in the
last eight trading days. The put option buy signals today bring the total
to three in the last two trading days.
The market
did not provide bullish behavior on Monday. Last week’s flat behavior was
not friendly for deeply discounted buy offers. The call-put mixed
signaling suggests an indecisive market.
Seventeen
ETF
Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. That is an increase by one from
last Friday. This is no longer providing near-unanimous or majority
bullish support.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The shift
from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006
after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15,
2006.
Continue to
avoid writing covered call options at this time.
The
Quick-term Bull remains in tact.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is not avoiding QQQQ,
which does not support holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.
The
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF
cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet
developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It will be excluded
on overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed
to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets.
QID
inclusion in overall ETF analysis will distort observations of market
divergence and convergence due to the nature of its design. For example,
precious metals and energy are contrarian but can parallel market
direction with synergistic relationships. That, quite often, relates to
market convergence when some non-contrarian funds are paralleling the
general markets.
QID will
receive Quick-term and Short-term sell signals, but must mature more for
independent near-term observations. This comment will be removed once that
maturity is developed.
QID is down
47.4% since all three models signaled bear upon the initial offering of
this ETF 76.6-weeks ago.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Quick-term ETF Options
Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s
Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related
tours.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.Net
12/31/07
Dec 28,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 12, Issue
20 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Six of thirty; three are non-contrarian. This bullish attribute remains
weakened, while maintaining modest bullish support.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Eight of thirty. Attribute remains configured with modest non-bearish
support.
Quick-term
Non-Bearishness:
Weak; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary
weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Both major indices approached lower trading range limit, but again did not
find comfort. They responded with bullishness, while not robustly at this
time.
Force
Vectors:
Bullish cycle was shallow and appears completed, but from well within
bullish domains, which supports bullish bias.
Vector
Pressure:
Sixteen in
bullish domains. They are increasing and supporting bullish bias.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Continue
holding.
Immediate
Tactics:
Vector Pressure is supporting more aggressive buying.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Bullish.
Configurations are mixed.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
Bullish bias
prevailing, but weakened.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write
any covered options in this environment.
Volume:
Configurations are neutral.
September
17, 2007-Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….
September
18, 2007-The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not jittery behavior.
It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of the heart and soul
of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!
October 19,
2007-Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the face of the
underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise if this
bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest it is
not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.
November 7,
2007-The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting the upper
trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the underlying
bullish trend.
November 9,
2007-Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the bullish trend
has not been reversed.
December 7,
2007-The major indices contacted the lower trading range limit a few days
ago and bounced solidly to the north. They are now trekking north. There
is no guarantee they will again interact with the upper trading range
limit, but the probability is high they will during the few remaining
weeks of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.
December 14,
2007. The probability of the major indices interacting with the lower
trading range limit increased today over interaction with the upper
trading range limit.
December 18,
2007. Bullish response occurred today (Dec 18) reducing probability of
penetrating the lower trading range limit.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bull on Thursday, December 6, 2007 for
both major indices. The DJIA is down 1.9% and the NASDAQ is down 1.3%,
respectively, since then.
From Dec 11,
2007 daily stock market report, it was stated “a continuation of this bull
cycle should test the upper trading range limit again. This should occur
before the heart and soul of bullish seasonality concludes in late January
2008.” Very recent volume has been more supportive of the bear.
From Dec 20,
2007 daily stock market report. Configurations are suggesting increasing
heart and soul of bullish seasonality influence.
From Dec 21,
2007. The Dow’s 200-plus point jump today substantiates the heart and soul
of bullish seasonality influence.
From Dec 28,
2007. Lethargic volume due to holidays is generating unnatural market
forces. This is common when a few traders are more likely to manipulate
market values. The market should enjoy natural dynamics on January 3,
2008.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s continue configuring lethargically. This
is influenced by holiday volume. As stated the past several days, the
current lethargic cycle coincides with bullish market behavior. That
suggests less than desired momentum for sustaining the underlying bullish
bias, but also not encouraging to recent bearish expressions. A
continuation of cyclical and seasonal influences should favor the bull,
regardless of bearish economic fundamentals, for the next few weeks.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signal. Although there were no buy signals, the
SQI is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 73.8%
(annualized at 28.2%) since their respective buy signals an average of
134.8-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding
six ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 5.3% since their
sell signals an average of 7.3-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up an
average of 95.1% (annualized 37.5%) since the STI signaled, buy, an
average of 130.5-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there
are six ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 5.5%
since their sell signals an average of 7.3-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 19.5% (annualized at 27.4%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 36.5-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding five ETF’s. They are down by an average of
4.3% since their sell signals an average of 5.9-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There are
three conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term
Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This
harmonious relationship, although weakened with increased volatility in
2007, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August
15, 2006.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Eight of the
30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average
relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 4.8%.
This is providing non-bearish support.
Six of the
ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive
of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.6% below their
bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above
bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance. Three of the six red
bulls are non-contrarian.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
One of the
thirty ETF’s is contacting its breakout line. It is contrarian
ETF#11-Precious Metals. There is no bullish support from this attribute at
this time.
This was the
thirteenth consecutive day of non-contrarian non-contact. This non-bullish
bias suggests shallower bull cycles on a near-term basis. This attribute
is non supportive of the bull.
As stated
the past several months, the high concentration of non-contrarian
breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in
fifty-nine of the last eighty-three trading days supports bullish bias.
This attribute is losing influence in support of the bull.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 8.9%. This remains in support of the
quick-term bullish bias, but weakened.
None of the
ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines, which is non-bearish.
The average
distance from the price and breakdown is 17.1%. This configuration is
providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.
The gap
between breakout and breakdown has stabilized, which suggests market
stability with a slight bullish bias.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
Twenty-five
Force Vectors are moving bullishly, supporting the underlying bullish
bias. The recent bearish configuration has bottomed. The bullish cycle is
maturing but from well within bullish domains, which is not offering the
bear any momentum.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were
four call option buy signals and one put option buy signal after Friday’s
close. This brings the total call option buy signals to fifteen in the
last seven trading days. That is the first put option buy signal in
several days.
The market’s
mild bullishness was not favorable to Wednesday’s call option buy signals.
Although mild bullishness protected Thursday’s deeply discounted call
option buys, profit potential will be enhanced if Monday’s market behavior
is bullish.
Sixteen
ETF Vector Pressures are in
bullish domains. This is no longer providing near-unanimous or majority
bullish support. However, as stated daily last week, they are not
configuring with dynamic bearish support. Vector Pressure increased by six
last Thursday and Friday, providing increasing bullish support.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The shift
from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006
after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15,
2006.
Continue to
avoid writing covered call options at this time.
The
Quick-term Bull remains in tact.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is not avoiding QQQQ,
which does not support holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.
The
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF
cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet
developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It will be excluded
on overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed
to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets.
QID
inclusion in overall ETF analysis will distort observations of market
divergence and convergence due to the nature of its design. For example,
precious metals and energy are contrarian but can parallel market
direction with synergistic relationships. That, quite often, relates to
market convergence when some non-contrarian funds are paralleling the
general markets.
QID will
receive Quick-term and Short-term sell signals, but must mature more for
independent near-term observations. This comment will be removed once that
maturity is developed.
QID is down
48.4% since all three models signaled bear upon the initial offering of
this ETF 76.1-weeks ago.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Quick-term ETF Options
Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s
Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related
tours.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.Net
12/28/07
Dec 27,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 12, Issue
19 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Five of thirty; three are non-contrarian. This bullish attribute remains
weakened, while maintaining modest bullish support.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Nine of thirty. Attribute remains configured with non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Non-Bearishness:
Weak; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary
weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Both major indices approached lower trading range limit, but again did not
find comfort. They responded with bullishness, while not robustly at this
time.
Force
Vectors:
Bearish cycle finally completed and a bullish cycle has begun.
Vector
Pressure:
Thirteen in
bullish domains, supporting bullish bias.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Continue
holding.
Immediate
Tactics:
Force Vectors reversed, favoring more aggressive buying.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Bullish.
Configurations are mixed.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
Bullish bias
prevailing, but weakened.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write
any covered options in this environment.
Volume:
Configurations are neutral.
September
17, 2007-Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….
September
18, 2007-The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not jittery behavior.
It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of the heart and soul
of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!
October 19,
2007-Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the face of the
underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise if this
bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest it is
not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.
November 7,
2007-The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting the upper
trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the underlying
bullish trend.
November 9,
2007-Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the bullish trend
has not been reversed.
December 7,
2007-The major indices contacted the lower trading range limit a few days
ago and bounced solidly to the north. They are now trekking north. There
is no guarantee they will again interact with the upper trading range
limit, but the probability is high they will during the few remaining
weeks of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.
December 14,
2007. The probability of the major indices interacting with the lower
trading range limit increased today over interaction with the upper
trading range limit.
December 18,
2007. Bullish response occurred today (Dec 18) reducing probability of
penetrating the lower trading range limit.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bull on Thursday, December 6, 2007 for
both major indices. The DJIA is down 1.9% and the NASDAQ is down 1.2%,
respectively, since then.
From Dec 11,
2007 daily stock market report, it was stated “a continuation of this bull
cycle should test the upper trading range limit again. This should occur
before the heart and soul of bullish seasonality concludes in late January
2008.” Very recent volume has been more supportive of the bear.
From Dec 20,
2007 daily stock market report. Configurations are suggesting increasing
heart and soul of bullish seasonality influence.
From Dec 21,
2007. The Dow’s 200-plus point jump today substantiates the heart and soul
of bullish seasonality influence.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s continue configuring lethargically. This
is influenced by holiday volume. As stated the past several days, the
current lethargic cycle coincides with bullish market behavior. That
suggests less than desired momentum for sustaining the underlying bullish
bias, but also not encouraging to recent bearish expressions. A
continuation of cyclical and seasonal influences should favor the bull,
regardless of bearish economic fundamentals, for the next few weeks.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signal. Although there were no buy signals, the
SQI is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 73.5%
(annualized at 28.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of
134.6-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding
six ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 4.9% since their
sell signals an average of 7.1-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up an
average of 94.6% (annualized 37.3%) since the STI signaled, buy, an
average of 130.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there
are six ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 5.2%
since their sell signals an average of 7.1-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 19.3% (annualized at 27.3%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 36.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding five ETF’s. They are down by an average of
4.5% since their sell signals an average of 5.8-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There are
three conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term
Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This
harmonious relationship, although weakened with increased volatility in
2007, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August
15, 2006.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Nine of the
30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average
relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 4.7%.
This is providing non-bearish support.
Five of the
ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive
of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.7% below their
bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above
bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance. Three of the five
red bulls are non-contrarian.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
None of the
thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. There is no bullish
support from this attribute at this time.
This was the
twelfth consecutive day of non-contrarian non-contact. This non-bullish
bias suggests shallower bull cycles on a near-term basis.
As stated
the past several months, the high concentration of non-contrarian
breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in
fifty-nine of the last eighty-two trading days supports bullish bias. This
attribute is losing influence in support of the bull.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 9.0%. This remains in support of the
quick-term bullish bias, but weakened.
None of the
ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines, which is non-bearish.
The average
distance from the price and breakdown is 16.9%. This configuration is
providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.
The gap
between breakout and breakdown has stabilized, which suggests market
stability with a slight bullish bias.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
Twenty-four
Force Vectors are moving bullishly, supporting the underlying bullish
bias. The recent bearish configuration has bottomed. The bullish cycle is
maturing and inviting some added bearish influences.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were
three call option buy signals after Thursday’s close. This brings the
total call option buy signals to eleven in the last six trading days.
Today’s
bearish aggression was friendly to yesterday’s call option buy signals.
Deeply discounted buy offers transacted. A bullish bounce within the next
two days is needed for profits.
Thirteen
ETF
Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. This is no longer providing
near-unanimous or majority bullish support. However, as stated daily last
week, they are not configuring with dynamic bearish support. Vector
Pressure increased by three today, providing increasing bullish support.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The shift
from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006
after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15,
2006.
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