Return Home | Table of Contents | FAQ's |  Become a Member | ETF's |  Current Report Card | Member Updates | Login

Media Kit | Free Stock Market History | Indicant Performance Advantage | Current Positions | Back Issues | Contact Us

 

 

December Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Updates

Scroll Down to View Back Issues

 

Dec 31, 2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 12, Issue 21 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Five of thirty; three are non-contrarian. This bullish attribute remains weakened, while maintaining modest bullish support.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Nine of thirty. Attribute remains configured with modest non-bearish support.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Weak; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Both major indices approached lower trading range limit, but again did not find comfort. They responded with bullishness, but with little dynamic ambition or support.

Force Vectors: A new bearish cycle has begun, but from deep inside bullish domains. The bear will have difficulty dominating unless they fall into bearish domains.

Vector Pressure: Seventeen in bullish domains. They are increasing and supporting bullish bias.

Long-term Hold Positions: Continue holding.

Immediate Tactics: Vector Pressure is supporting more aggressive buying.

Current Quick-term Bias: Configurations are mixed with mild bullish bias.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakened.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write any covered options in this environment.

Volume: Configurations are neutral.

 

September 17, 2007-Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….

 

September 18, 2007-The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not jittery behavior. It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!

 

October 19, 2007-Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the face of the underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise if this bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest it is not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.

 

November 7, 2007-The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting the upper trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the underlying bullish trend.

 

November 9, 2007-Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the bullish trend has not been reversed.

 

December 7, 2007-The major indices contacted the lower trading range limit a few days ago and bounced solidly to the north. They are now trekking north. There is no guarantee they will again interact with the upper trading range limit, but the probability is high they will during the few remaining weeks of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

 

December 14, 2007. The probability of the major indices interacting with the lower trading range limit increased today over interaction with the upper trading range limit.

 

December 18, 2007. Bullish response occurred today (Dec 18) reducing probability of penetrating the lower trading range limit.

 

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bull on Thursday, December 6, 2007 for both major indices. The DJIA is down 2.6% and the NASDAQ is down 2.1%, respectively, since then.

 

From Dec 11, 2007 daily stock market report, it was stated “a continuation of this bull cycle should test the upper trading range limit again. This should occur before the heart and soul of bullish seasonality concludes in late January 2008.” Very recent volume has been more supportive of the bear.

 

From Dec 20, 2007 daily stock market report. Configurations are suggesting increasing heart and soul of bullish seasonality influence.

 

From Dec 21, 2007. The Dow’s 200-plus point jump today substantiates the heart and soul of bullish seasonality influence.

 

From Dec 28, 2007. Lethargic volume due to holidays is generating unnatural market forces. This is common when a few traders are more likely to manipulate market values. The market should enjoy natural dynamics on January 3, 2008.

 

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

 

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  continue configuring lethargically. This is influenced by holiday volume. As stated the past several days, the current lethargic cycle coincides with bullish market behavior. That suggests less than desired momentum for sustaining the underlying bullish bias, but also not encouraging to bearish ambition. A continuation of cyclical and seasonal influences should favor the bull, regardless of bearish economic fundamentals, for the next few weeks.

 

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 72.5% (annualized at 27.6%) since their respective buy signals an average of 135.2-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding six ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 5.5% since their sell signals an average of 7.7-weeks ago.

 

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

 

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals.  Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up an average of 93.4% (annualized 36.7%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 130.9-weeks ago.  Although there were no sell signals, there are six ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 5.8% since their sell signals an average of 7.7-weeks ago.

 

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

 

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and two sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 20.6% (annualized at 26.7%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 39.8-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding five ETF’s. They are down by an average of 4.1% since their sell signals an average of 6.3-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

 

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are four conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This harmonious relationship, although weakened with increased volatility in 2007, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August 15, 2006.

 

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Nine of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 4.2%. This is providing non-bearish support.

 

Five of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 4.1% below their bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance. Two of the five red bulls are non-contrarian.

 

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

 

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines.There is no bullish support from this attribute at this time.

 

This was the fourteenth consecutive trading day of non-contrarian non-contact. This non-bullish bias suggests shallower bull cycles on a near-term basis. This attribute is non supportive of the bull.

 

As stated the past several months, the high concentration of non-contrarian breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in fifty-nine of the last eighty-four trading days supports bullish bias. This attribute is losing influence in support of the bull.

 

The average distance from breakout contact is 9.5%. This remains in support of the quick-term bullish bias, but weakened.

 

None of the ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines, which is non-bearish.

 

The average distance from the price and breakdown is 16.4%. This configuration is  providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

 

The gap between breakout and breakdown is again shrinking. This suggests weakening bullish bias.

 

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

 

Twenty-three Force Vectors are moving bullishly, supporting the underlying bullish bias. The bullish cycle has matured and appears complete. There is little bullish support on a near-term basis. Keep in mind these cycles last from an average of four to six days. A new bear cycle has begun with a reduction from twenty-five bullish Force Vectors last Friday.

 

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

 

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

 

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There was one call option buy signal and two put option buy signals after Monday’s close. This brings the total call option buy signals to sixteen in the last eight trading days. The put option buy signals today bring the total to three in the last two trading days.

 

The market did not provide bullish behavior on Monday. Last week’s flat behavior was not friendly for deeply discounted buy offers. The call-put mixed signaling suggests an indecisive market.

 

Seventeen ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. That is an increase by one from last Friday. This is no longer providing near-unanimous  or majority bullish support.

 

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

 

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

 

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The shift from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15, 2006.

 

Continue to avoid writing covered call options at this time.

 

The Quick-term Bull remains in tact.

 

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is not avoiding QQQQ, which does not support holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.

 

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It will be excluded on overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets.

 

QID inclusion in overall ETF analysis will distort observations of market divergence and convergence due to the nature of its design. For example, precious metals and energy are contrarian but can parallel market direction with synergistic relationships. That, quite often, relates to market convergence when some non-contrarian funds are paralleling the general markets.

 

QID will receive Quick-term and Short-term sell signals, but must mature more for independent near-term observations. This comment will be removed once that maturity is developed.

 

QID is down 47.4% since all three models signaled bear upon the initial offering of this ETF 76.6-weeks ago.

 

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

 

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

 

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

 

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

 

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

12/31/07

 

 

 

 

 

Dec 28, 2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 12, Issue 20 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Six of thirty; three are non-contrarian. This bullish attribute remains weakened, while maintaining modest bullish support.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Eight of thirty. Attribute remains configured with modest non-bearish support.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Weak; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Both major indices approached lower trading range limit, but again did not find comfort. They responded with bullishness, while not robustly at this time.

Force Vectors: Bullish cycle was shallow and appears completed, but from well within bullish domains, which supports bullish bias.

Vector Pressure: Sixteen in bullish domains. They are increasing and supporting bullish bias.

Long-term Hold Positions: Continue holding.

Immediate Tactics: Vector Pressure is supporting more aggressive buying.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish. Configurations are mixed.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakened.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write any covered options in this environment.

Volume: Configurations are neutral.

 

September 17, 2007-Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….

 

September 18, 2007-The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not jittery behavior. It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!

 

October 19, 2007-Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the face of the underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise if this bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest it is not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.

 

November 7, 2007-The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting the upper trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the underlying bullish trend.

 

November 9, 2007-Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the bullish trend has not been reversed.

 

December 7, 2007-The major indices contacted the lower trading range limit a few days ago and bounced solidly to the north. They are now trekking north. There is no guarantee they will again interact with the upper trading range limit, but the probability is high they will during the few remaining weeks of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

 

December 14, 2007. The probability of the major indices interacting with the lower trading range limit increased today over interaction with the upper trading range limit.

 

December 18, 2007. Bullish response occurred today (Dec 18) reducing probability of penetrating the lower trading range limit.

 

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bull on Thursday, December 6, 2007 for both major indices. The DJIA is down 1.9% and the NASDAQ is down 1.3%, respectively, since then.

 

From Dec 11, 2007 daily stock market report, it was stated “a continuation of this bull cycle should test the upper trading range limit again. This should occur before the heart and soul of bullish seasonality concludes in late January 2008.” Very recent volume has been more supportive of the bear.

 

From Dec 20, 2007 daily stock market report. Configurations are suggesting increasing heart and soul of bullish seasonality influence.

 

From Dec 21, 2007. The Dow’s 200-plus point jump today substantiates the heart and soul of bullish seasonality influence.

 

From Dec 28, 2007. Lethargic volume due to holidays is generating unnatural market forces. This is common when a few traders are more likely to manipulate market values. The market should enjoy natural dynamics on January 3, 2008.

 

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

 

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  continue configuring lethargically. This is influenced by holiday volume. As stated the past several days, the current lethargic cycle coincides with bullish market behavior. That suggests less than desired momentum for sustaining the underlying bullish bias, but also not encouraging to recent bearish expressions. A continuation of cyclical and seasonal influences should favor the bull, regardless of bearish economic fundamentals, for the next few weeks.

 

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signal. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 73.8% (annualized at 28.2%) since their respective buy signals an average of 134.8-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding six ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 5.3% since their sell signals an average of 7.3-weeks ago.

 

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

 

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals.  Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up an average of 95.1% (annualized 37.5%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 130.5-weeks ago.  Although there were no sell signals, there are six ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 5.5% since their sell signals an average of 7.3-weeks ago.

 

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

 

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 19.5% (annualized at 27.4%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 36.5-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding five ETF’s. They are down by an average of 4.3% since their sell signals an average of 5.9-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

 

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are three conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This harmonious relationship, although weakened with increased volatility in 2007, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August 15, 2006.

 

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Eight of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 4.8%. This is providing non-bearish support.

 

Six of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.6% below their bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance. Three of the six red bulls are non-contrarian.

 

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

 

One of the thirty ETF’s is contacting its breakout line. It is contrarian ETF#11-Precious Metals. There is no bullish support from this attribute at this time.

 

This was the thirteenth consecutive day of non-contrarian non-contact. This non-bullish bias suggests shallower bull cycles on a near-term basis. This attribute is non supportive of the bull.

 

As stated the past several months, the high concentration of non-contrarian breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in fifty-nine of the last eighty-three trading days supports bullish bias. This attribute is losing influence in support of the bull.

 

The average distance from breakout contact is 8.9%. This remains in support of the quick-term bullish bias, but weakened.

 

None of the ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines, which is non-bearish.

 

The average distance from the price and breakdown is 17.1%. This configuration is  providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

 

The gap between breakout and breakdown has stabilized, which suggests market stability with a slight bullish bias.

 

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

 

Twenty-five Force Vectors are moving bullishly, supporting the underlying bullish bias. The recent bearish configuration has bottomed. The bullish cycle is maturing but from well within bullish domains, which is not offering the bear any momentum.

 

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

 

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

 

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were four call option buy signals and one put option buy signal after Friday’s close. This brings the total call option buy signals to fifteen in the last seven trading days. That is the first put option buy signal in several days.

 

The market’s mild bullishness was not favorable to Wednesday’s call option buy signals. Although mild bullishness protected Thursday’s deeply discounted call option buys, profit potential will be enhanced if Monday’s market behavior is bullish.

 

Sixteen ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. This is no longer providing near-unanimous  or majority bullish support. However, as stated daily last week, they are not configuring with dynamic bearish support. Vector Pressure increased by six last Thursday and Friday, providing increasing bullish support.

 

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

 

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

 

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The shift from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15, 2006.

 

Continue to avoid writing covered call options at this time.

 

The Quick-term Bull remains in tact.

 

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is not avoiding QQQQ, which does not support holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.

 

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It will be excluded on overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets.

 

QID inclusion in overall ETF analysis will distort observations of market divergence and convergence due to the nature of its design. For example, precious metals and energy are contrarian but can parallel market direction with synergistic relationships. That, quite often, relates to market convergence when some non-contrarian funds are paralleling the general markets.

 

QID will receive Quick-term and Short-term sell signals, but must mature more for independent near-term observations. This comment will be removed once that maturity is developed.

 

QID is down 48.4% since all three models signaled bear upon the initial offering of this ETF 76.1-weeks ago.

 

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

 

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

 

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

 

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

 

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

12/28/07

 

 

 

 


 

Dec 27, 2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 12, Issue 19 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Five of thirty; three are non-contrarian. This bullish attribute remains weakened, while maintaining modest bullish support.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Nine of thirty. Attribute remains configured with non-bearish support.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Weak; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Both major indices approached lower trading range limit, but again did not find comfort. They responded with bullishness, while not robustly at this time.

Force Vectors: Bearish cycle finally completed and a bullish cycle has begun.

Vector Pressure: Thirteen in bullish domains, supporting bullish bias.

Long-term Hold Positions: Continue holding.

Immediate Tactics: Force Vectors reversed, favoring more aggressive buying.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish. Configurations are mixed.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakened.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write any covered options in this environment.

Volume: Configurations are neutral.

 

September 17, 2007-Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….

 

September 18, 2007-The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not jittery behavior. It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!

 

October 19, 2007-Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the face of the underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise if this bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest it is not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.

 

November 7, 2007-The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting the upper trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the underlying bullish trend.

 

November 9, 2007-Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the bullish trend has not been reversed.

 

December 7, 2007-The major indices contacted the lower trading range limit a few days ago and bounced solidly to the north. They are now trekking north. There is no guarantee they will again interact with the upper trading range limit, but the probability is high they will during the few remaining weeks of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

 

December 14, 2007. The probability of the major indices interacting with the lower trading range limit increased today over interaction with the upper trading range limit.

 

December 18, 2007. Bullish response occurred today (Dec 18) reducing probability of penetrating the lower trading range limit.

 

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bull on Thursday, December 6, 2007 for both major indices. The DJIA is down 1.9% and the NASDAQ is down 1.2%, respectively, since then.

 

From Dec 11, 2007 daily stock market report, it was stated “a continuation of this bull cycle should test the upper trading range limit again. This should occur before the heart and soul of bullish seasonality concludes in late January 2008.” Very recent volume has been more supportive of the bear.

 

From Dec 20, 2007 daily stock market report. Configurations are suggesting increasing heart and soul of bullish seasonality influence.

 

From Dec 21, 2007. The Dow’s 200-plus point jump today substantiates the heart and soul of bullish seasonality influence.

 

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

 

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  continue configuring lethargically. This is influenced by holiday volume. As stated the past several days, the current lethargic cycle coincides with bullish market behavior. That suggests less than desired momentum for sustaining the underlying bullish bias, but also not encouraging to recent bearish expressions. A continuation of cyclical and seasonal influences should favor the bull, regardless of bearish economic fundamentals, for the next few weeks.

 

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signal. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 73.5% (annualized at 28.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 134.6-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding six ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 4.9% since their sell signals an average of 7.1-weeks ago.

 

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

 

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals.  Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up an average of 94.6% (annualized 37.3%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 130.3-weeks ago.  Although there were no sell signals, there are six ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 5.2% since their sell signals an average of 7.1-weeks ago.

 

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

 

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 19.3% (annualized at 27.3%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 36.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding five ETF’s. They are down by an average of 4.5% since their sell signals an average of 5.8-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

 

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are three conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This harmonious relationship, although weakened with increased volatility in 2007, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August 15, 2006.

 

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Nine of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 4.7%. This is providing non-bearish support.

 

Five of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.7% below their bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance. Three of the five red bulls are non-contrarian.

 

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

 

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. There is no bullish support from this attribute at this time.

 

This was the twelfth consecutive day of non-contrarian non-contact. This non-bullish bias suggests shallower bull cycles on a near-term basis.

 

As stated the past several months, the high concentration of non-contrarian breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in fifty-nine of the last eighty-two trading days supports bullish bias. This attribute is losing influence in support of the bull.

 

The average distance from breakout contact is 9.0%. This remains in support of the quick-term bullish bias, but weakened.

 

None of the ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines, which is non-bearish.

 

The average distance from the price and breakdown is 16.9%. This configuration is  providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

 

The gap between breakout and breakdown has stabilized, which suggests market stability with a slight bullish bias.

 

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

 

Twenty-four Force Vectors are moving bullishly, supporting the underlying bullish bias. The recent bearish configuration has bottomed. The bullish cycle is maturing and inviting some added bearish influences.

 

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

 

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

 

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were three call option buy signals after Thursday’s close. This brings the total call option buy signals to eleven in the last six trading days.

 

Today’s bearish aggression was friendly to yesterday’s call option buy signals. Deeply discounted buy offers transacted. A bullish bounce within the next two days is needed for profits.

 

Thirteen ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. This is no longer providing near-unanimous  or majority bullish support. However, as stated daily last week, they are not configuring with dynamic bearish support. Vector Pressure increased by three today, providing increasing bullish support.

 

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

 

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

 

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The shift from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15, 2006.

 

Continue to a