Dec 28, 2003 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 12, Issue 4 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

Bullish Seasonality – Part 5

In the May-October 2002 half, the Dow fell 15.6%, which was consistent with normal seasonality. In the same rolling half of 2003, the Dow was up 15.6%. That is a wash on these two consecutive years of bearish seasonality. The NASDAQ fell 21.2% in the bearish half of 2002, again consistent with expectations. This year it was up 32.0%, contrasting with normal seasonality, but consistent with presidential pre-election year expectations.

The market has been cooling. In the rolling halves so far this year, the Dow was up 19.3%, 16.1%, 15.6%, and 10.5% in the rolling halves ending in August, September, October, and November respectively. The NASDAQ is up 35.4%, 33.2%, 32.0%, and 22.8% in the same period. As you can see, there is a downward trend on the rolling halves. The market has exceeded most pre-year expectations in 2003 and this cooling is natural.

However, January is around the corner. It is the best performing month since 1950. It is in a league by itself. It has been a disappointing month the past two years, as it finished down in 2002 and 2003 for the 3 major indices. The Dow was down in 2002 by 1.5% and by 3.0% in 2003. The S&P500 and NASDAQ were also down in January 2002 and 2003. The point here is that Dow and S&P500 have never endured three successive down January’s since 1950. The NASDAQ has never endured three down January’s since its beginning. So, expect the bull to continue through January 2004.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated six buy signals and three sell signals for stocks and funds.

In addition to the sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding ten stocks and funds of the 296 tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 26.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 37.2 weeks ago.

There were sixteen stocks and funds avoided one year ago. After the buying barrage in late 2002, the worse December since 1931 brought on a few sell signals toward the end of last year. Those stocks and funds one year ago were down an average of 25.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 21.9 weeks earlier. The current bull market was beginning to soften at this time one year ago.

In addition to the buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 283 of the 296 stocks and funds currently tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 55.8%, which is up slightly from last week. That annualizes to 82.9%, which is down from 124.1% reported on June 7, 2003, but up from 50.2% reported on February 15, 2003. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 283 stocks and funds for an average of 34.7 weeks.

The stocks/funds with hold signals approximate one year ago when the Indicant was signaling hold for 274 stocks and funds out of the 296 being tracked. At that time, the Mid-term Indicant was holding those stocks and funds for an average of 13.5 weeks. They were up 14.2% (annualized at 54.7%). Many of those stocks and funds continued to climb late last year, as the new bull market began softening.

This paragraph is a repeat from last few weeks. The current bull market and buying barrage slightly over a year ago followed the predicted market bottom in 2002. The mid-term presidential election year phenomenon occurred consistent with history and even more impressive was how the market synchronized with near perfection with normal seasonality. The Dow30 found bottom on October 9, 2002 at 7286.27. The NASDAQ found bottom on the same day at 1114.11. As earlier stated, the Indicant began its buying barrage about one year ago just after the market bottomed from the severe 2000-2002 Bear Market. Some of you recall the Short-term Indicant Bear for the NASDAQ was the longest in history. It even exceeded the Dow’s 1929-1931 Short-term Indicant Bear. The good news is that the NASDAQ’s decline did not lead to a depression, which is a clear indication of how much influence the tech stocks do not have on the economy.

This paragraph is a repeat from the past several weeks. We want to make certain you understand this. The mid-term election year phenomenon found the market bottom, right on cue in 2002. The presidential pre-election year phenomenon is the most bullish year on the presidential election cycle. We only have three more days remaining to enjoy this phenomenon. However, the presidential election year is also historically bullish. The following link will take you to charts that explain this phenomenon, which is currently underway and for you to enjoy. It is in a “members only” section. This paragraph will repeat throughout this year.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0100.htm

Make certain you read the entire page on the above link. You will see there are exceptions. So far, this year does not appear to be an exception. If it becomes an exception, the Quick-term Indicant and the other Indicant models will let you know. Right now, the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant is signaling bear, but that can change quickly since this is a presidential pre-election year.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant is now recommending a more tolerant stop loss of 8%. We are into bullish seasonality. When and if the Quick-term Indicant signals bear, you should adjust your stop losses to 5%.

Use either an 8% trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 8% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 15% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds in those “bearish” conditions. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report.

Comments about Stocks and Funds

Last week, we discussed a few stocks that were struggling to move above their respective long-term blue curves and their bullish red curves. Clicking the below link will provide you some insight on this. There just happens to be six stocks on that page that describe many of the attributes describing their behavior as we enter into 2004.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Stks-NAS100/NS03.htm#14

You will notice NAS100 #13, ADC, is struggling as it approaches its bullish red curve. Its behavior is not indicative of a stock ready to move onto higher ground. This stock is up 13.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on October 4, 2003. You can see its timidity.

NAS100 #14, Conexant, was discussed last week. That was some concern about it being on yellow. Last week the stock was up 232.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on March 22, 2003. This week it is up 242.0% since then. It rebounded nicely last week and is now well above yellow.

NAS100 #15, Juniper, was one of the numerous stocks receiving a buy signal late last year. It is up 235.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on October 25, 2002. As you can see, it is also approaching it bullish red curve. However, it is not expressing any timidity about it. It just had a longer road to haul to get there than many of the other stocks.

 NAS100 #16, Qualcomm, was a nervous stock in the beginning of this bull leg. After avoiding large losses in 2002, this stock did not make the big move in late 2002 like many other stocks did. However, it has been steady in its incline since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on May 31, 2003. It is up 58.1% since then. This stock has moved above its bullish red curve and it did not have any problems doing so.

NAS100 #17, Dollar Street, has been disappointing the past few weeks. It fell below its long-term blue curve a few weeks ago, but rebounded as was expected. The rebound was not as strong as they usually are for a stock falling to the blue curve. However, it did move past its blue curve by a couple of pennies. This stock is up 42.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on March 22, 2003.

NAS100 #18, Synopsy, is a nervous stock. It bounces more than air driven popcorn. However, it has performed steady and well since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on February 22, 2003. It is up 65.9% since then. This stock does not have too far to go to reach its 2001 peak. It also is had no trouble crossing its bullish red curve.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only. Be patient with this download. It takes a few minutes.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information is on a single page in the web site. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

The Internet sector held ground last week after rebounding to red bull status two weeks ago. Technology continues to hold up well. The overall stock market continues to be a red bull, even though it is expressing some weariness. The increasing price convergence that was mentioned last week continues to lend support for continuing bullish behavior. As stated last week, headline news is needed to add some spark.

Economic Outlook

Absolutely nothing has changed from last week. So, the remainder of this paragraph is a repeat from last week. The three-month T-Bill continues to slip to the south. CD’s continue to ebb and flow at historical bottoms. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae interests are beginning to cycle to the south again. That is bullish for the market. 

Nothing changed from last week, so the remainder of this paragraph is a repeat from last week. The US Dollar continues to nosedive against world currencies. The weak dollar continues to help exporters and hurt importers. As stated last week, overall, that is favorable to the U.S. economy, but the world is smaller.

Commodity prices continue to skyrocket. Gold continues to rise in price. That bullishness is dampening the bullish magnitude of the equity markets. Oil prices are tending to vacillate north and south with a slight edge to the north. This past week, oil slipped back into the neutral zone. It continues to bounce along within a tight trading range.

Other commodities finally turned south after zooming to the north for the past several weeks. If they drop more in the next few weeks, the equity markets will respond with a bullish surge.

All economic data is at the following link:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Eighty-one weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Seventy-four weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Sixty-five weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 98.4%, which is significantly higher than 47.1% reported twenty-three weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate is 47.2%, which is up from 28.8% reported twenty-three weeks ago. After dropping the previous two weeks, this fund was up significantly last week.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% seventy-nine weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Seventy-two weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 118.9%, which is higher than the 75.9% reported twenty-three weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 43.3%, which is higher than 23.1% reported twenty-three weeks ago. This fund also rebounded nicely after declining the previous two weeks.

As stated in the past you can monitor the above two funds and the options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Thirty-five weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant to signal new bull. Since the Mid-term Bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 58.1%, which is up significantly from 18.8% reported twenty-three weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is 87.8%, which is more than the 50.7% reported twenty-three weeks ago, but lower than 142.5% reported twenty-seven weeks ago. It should tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It, along with the stock market, will also tumble in the improbable event of deflation. This index continues to move north, which is inconsistent with equity related bulls. Any weakness here will jolt the equity markets to the north.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

Five of the eight major indices are red bulls. That is up from four last week. The market does not move robustly to the south when any of the indices are red bulls. Therefore, your hold positions are safe. The eight major indices are above the bullish red curve by an average of 0.9%, which is up by 0.3% from last week.

The eight major indices are up 4.4% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bull on October 28, 2003. That annualizes to 27.2%.

As stated for the past several weeks, Force Vectors continue their quick up and down oscillations. Right now, they are pointing to the south for seven of the eight major indices. The only one moving north is the S&P600 Index. Now, all eight Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. That is an improvement in bullish posturing from last week, when the NASDAQ Vector Pressure was negative (bearish).

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The holiday trading was light. Consequently, the Indicant Volume Indicator is expressing lethargy. It will also continue to do that next week. The key is to observe its configuration around the middle of January. If January is bullish, and we expect that, it will be even more bullish with some robust and dynamic expressions from the Indicant Volume Indicator.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The two combined indexes are up by an average of 3.6% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bull on November 24, 2003. That annualizes to 40.8%. The Dow is up 5.9% and the NASDAQ is up 1.3%.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

Perspectives

There is no change from last week. The market continues to gravitate toward its breakout line. It is safely above the breakdown lines. There is no hint of major bearish action in the next few days.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant, please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All eight major indices are bulls. They are up an average of 19.2% for an annualized gain of 37.0% since the MTI Bull signals an average of 27.0 weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is down from 47.9% reported twenty-nine weeks ago, but up slightly from last week.

The DJIA is up 21.2% since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003 That is up from 14.1% reported ten weeks ago. The NASDAQ Composite is the strongest Mid-term Bull. It is up 38.8% since the March 22, 2003 MTI Bull signal, which is also up from 34.6% ten weeks ago. That annualizes to 144.3%, which is up from 80.9% reported twenty-one weeks ago. It was up slightly last week.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There was one new bull signal and no new bear signals.

In addition to the new bull signal, twenty-one of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 74.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 53.9 weeks ago for an annualized gain of 72.1%, which approximates the 72.9% reported twenty-eight weeks ago.

None of the foreign indices are now bears.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

Dec 21, 2003 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 12, Issue 3 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

Bullish Seasonality – Part 4

Last year we enjoyed avoiding stocks and funds during most of the presidential mid-term election year. The Quick-term Bear that began in April 2002 was a severe bear market. At one point during that decline, the NASDAQ100 plummeted an additional 50% from already depressed levels. Many of you recall how the Indicant advised that the market would bottom during the mid-term election year. Sure enough, the market found its bottom on October 9, 2002. Shortly after that date, the Mid-term Indicant generated a record number of buy signals; many of which are still in effect.

After the buying spree late last year, we had to endure the worse December since 1931. To make matters worse, January 2003 turned out to be disappointing. Those two combined months triggered numerous sell signals in February; especially for mutual funds. On October 5, 2002, the Mid-term Indicant was holding only nine mutual funds. Sixty-four buy signals were generated over the next three weeks. By December 13 of last year, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for seventy-five of the seventy-six mutual funds. The disappointing December and January brought on several sell signals for mutual funds in December of last year and January this year. By Valentine’s Day of 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only seven mutual funds.

But on March 22, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant generated fifty-six buy signals for funds. By  September 20, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for seventy-four funds. With the exception of some buying and selling in the normally nervous period of August and September, the Mid-term Indicant continues to signal hold for those seventy-four funds. They are up by an average of 30.7% since those March buy signals.

Interestingly, the horrible December 2002 – January 2003 did not generate an equal number of sell signals for stocks. Many of the stock prices that exploded north in late 2002 were so strong in price and position, the Mid-term Indicant continued to signal hold. Funds more closely track the overall stock market. Individual stocks march to their own drumbeat.

Many of you have heard the old adage; so goes January, so goes the year. That has certainly not been the case this year. The Dow was down 3.5% last January. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ were also down 2.7% and 1.1%. February is the second worse performing month for the S&P500 and in the lower half of performers for the Dow and NASDAQ. February was down for the Dow this year while the NASDAQ and S&P500 were up. That was not surprising due to the depressed December and January. A bounce to the north is normal after unfavorable performances to historical expectations.

The market exploded north in late February and early March of this year. It continued to move north, even in the rolling half from May through October, which is the six-month period that is the most seasonally bearish.

So, where are we, as we near the end of an exciting year for the stock market? The Dow is up 23.2% this year. That is not too bad, given the dismal start to the year. The NASDAQ is up a whopping 46.1% this year. The Dow is only 12.3% from its all time high of 11723 set on January 14, 2000. The NASDAQ is still down 61.4% since its all time high of 5048.62 set on March 9, 2000. The NASDAQ100 is down 69.7% from its all time high of 4704.73 set on March 24, 2000. The Dow’s average gain during presidential pre-election years is 10.3% since 1832. Its average gain during up years is 19.1%. You can easily see the 2003 market has performed on an above average basis for the presidential pre-election year cycle.

The mid-term election year phenomenon played out perfectly last year and right on cue with expectations. With only two weeks remaining this year, the presidential pre-election year phenomenon so far has also played out perfectly. The question is, will the presidential election year phenomenon play out? We will review closely that over the next few weeks.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated six buy signals and three sell signals for stocks and funds.

In addition to the sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding ten stocks and funds of the 296 tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 26.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 36.6 weeks ago.

As is the case this year, the avoided stocks and funds one year ago amounted to only ten, as the buying barrage fostering the current bull market was now completed. Those stocks and funds one year ago were down an average of 27.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 22.7 weeks earlier. The current bull market was in its embryonic stage at this time one year ago. Unfortunately, it was enduring the worse December since 1931, but mild compared to the 1931 market.

In addition to the buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 277 of the 296 stocks and funds currently tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 55.4%, which is up from last week. That annualizes to 83.1%, which is down from 124.1% reported on June 7, 2003, but up from 50.2% reported on February 15, 2003. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 277 stocks and funds for an average of 34.7 weeks.

The stocks/funds with hold signals approximate one year ago when the Indicant was signaling hold for 275 stocks and funds out of the 296 being tracked. At that time, the Mid-term Indicant was holding those stocks and funds for an average of 12.4 weeks. They were up 16.0% (annualized at 67.3%). Many of those stocks and funds continued to climb in December 2002, which was the worse December since 1931.

This paragraph is a repeat from last few weeks. The current bull market and buying barrage slightly over a year ago followed the predicted market bottom in 2002. The mid-term presidential election year phenomenon occurred consistent with history and even more impressive was how the market synchronized with near perfection with normal seasonality. The Dow30 found bottom on October 9, 2002 at 7286.27. The NASDAQ found bottom on the same day at 1114.11. As earlier stated, the Indicant began its buying barrage about one year ago just after the market bottomed from the severe 2000-2002 Bear Market. Some of you recall the Short-term Indicant Bear for the NASDAQ was the longest in history. It even exceeded the Dow’s 1929-1931 Short-term Indicant Bear. The good news is that the NASDAQ’s decline did not lead to a depression, which is a clear indication of how much influence the tech stocks do not have on the economy.

This paragraph is a repeat from the past several weeks. We want to make certain you understand this. The mid-term election year phenomenon found the market bottom, right on cue in 2002. The presidential pre-election year phenomenon is the most bullish year on the presidential election cycle. We only have three more weeks remaining to enjoy this phenomenon. However, the presidential election year is also historically bullish. The following link will take you to charts that explain this phenomenon, which is currently underway and for you to enjoy. It is in a “members only” section. This paragraph will repeat throughout this year.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0100.htm

Make certain you read the entire page on the above link. You will see there are exceptions. So far, this year does not appear to be an exception. If it becomes an exception, the Quick-term Indicant and the other Indicant models will let you know. Right now, the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant is signaling bear, but that can change quickly since this is a presidential pre-election year.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant is now recommending a more tolerant stop loss of 8%. Bearish seasonality is over and we are into bullish seasonality. When and if the Quick-term Indicant signals bear, you should adjust your stop losses to 5%. That could happen during the course of next week. Vector pressure is negative for six of the eight major indices. When and if they all turn negative, we will need to tighten up the stop losses.

Use either an 8% trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 8% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 15% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds in those “bearish” conditions. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report.

Comments about Stocks and Funds

NAS100 #14, Conexant, is showing some fatigue since crossing above its bullish red curve. Although the stock is up 232.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on March 22, 2003, it may soon be receiving a sell signal. If you own the stock, you may want to tighten up your stop loss to 8%, as opposed to the recommended 15% for this type of situation.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Stks-NAS100/NS03.htm#14

NAS100 #17, Dollar Street, has fallen below its long-term blue curve and is riding bearish yellow. That would normally stimulate the Mid-term Indicant to signal sell. Some of you may have already sold on the stop loss. There are a couple of reasons the Mid-term Indicant did not signal sell. Stocks quite often bounce back to the north after falling below their long-term blue curve. Secondly, we are still in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

The stock is now up only 40.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on March 22, 2003.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Stks-NAS100/NS03.htm#17

Many stocks are still having difficulty maintaining a bullish fervor after crossing above their bullish red curves. NAS100 #22, COST, and #21, ADRX, highlight this.  You will notice that #22, COST, fell sharply the last time it crossed its bullish red curve. If you own this stock, make certain your stop loss is in order. It is up 18.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 23, 2003.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Stks-NAS100/NS04.htm#22

NAS100 #21, ADRX, is attempting to cross its bullish red curve for the first time in nearly three years. It is up 97.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on April 5, 2003.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Stks-NAS100/NS04.htm#21

You will notice NAS100 #84, VTSS, has a hold signal, even though it is down 15.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on November 1, 2003. This stock has been bouncing up and down since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on September 27, 2003 at a 215.9% profit. It had been previously been bought on November 2, 2002 at $1.98 as a part of the massive buying spree that occurred late last year. Prior to that buy signal, it was sold on April 19, 2002 at $7.71 and was not traded until the November 2, 2002 buy signal. The Mid-term Indicant avoided the stock during the record Quick-term Bear market in 2002. The stock declined 74.4% during that avoid cycle in 2002.

Your stop loss should have triggered a sell since the most recent buy signal. The stock is riding yellow and that would normally trigger a sell signal. However, the Mid-term Indicant continues to signal hold due to bullish seasonality and the expectation of a rebound in the Santa Clause rally. When you see a stock with negative performance and a hold signal, then you should consider buying it. However, make certain you set the stop loss. Bouncy stocks do not have a pattern, but once they establish one, the Mid-term Indicant identifies it.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Stks-NAS100/NS14.htm#84

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only. Be patient with this download. It takes a few minutes.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information is on a single page in the web site. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

The Internet sector rebounded last week. The overall stock market is a red bull. There is an increase in price convergence, which lends support for continuing bullish behavior. Some small caps are lagging as money is rotating in favor of large caps. The energy sector is again moving to the north, while the medical sector is sitting still. Technology continues to maintain red bull status, although resting. Although there is an increase in price convergence, it is not robust. With that, the underlying theme is continues to be bullish. Headline news is needed to add some spark.

Economic Outlook

The three-month T-Bill continues to slip to the south. CD’s continue to ebb and flow at historical bottoms. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae interests are beginning to cycle to the south again. That is bullish for the market. 

The US Dollar continues to nosedive against world currencies. The weak dollar continues to help exporters and hurt importers. As stated last week, overall, that is favorable to the U.S. economy, but the world is smaller.

Commodity prices continue to skyrocket. Gold continues to rise in price. That bullishness is dampening the bullish magnitude of the equity markets. Oil prices are tending to vacillate north and south with a slight edge to the north. That is also acting as a counter punch to the bullish stock market. The bull does not like increasing oil prices. A lot of money continues flowing into gold which dampens the impact of supply and demand for stocks.

Other commodities continue to rise as the improving economy is stressing the demand for raw materials. Sooner or later, these increased material costs will adversely impact the producer price index. Continuing productivity increases should dampen the impact to the consumer price index. Greenspan will protect the consumer price index. If begins to rise, he will stifle that with an increase in interest rates. The political cycle will pressure him to be patient. He will do his best to hold off any rate increases until after next year’s election.

All economic data is at the following link:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Eighty weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Seventy-three weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Sixty-four weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 90.5%, which is significantly higher than 47.1% reported twenty-two weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate is 43.8%, which is up from 28.8% reported twenty-two weeks ago. Last week, as well as the week before that, this fund was down, significantly.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% seventy-eight weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Seventy-one weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 113.0%, which is higher than the 75.9% reported twenty-two weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 41.5%, which is higher than 23.1% reported twenty-two weeks ago. This fund is down, significantly, the past two weeks.

As stated in the past you can monitor the above two funds and the options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Thirty-four weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant to signal new bull. Since the Mid-term Bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 51.7%, which is up significantly from 18.8% reported twenty-two weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is 80.1%, which is more than the 50.7% reported twenty-two weeks ago, but lower than 142.5% reported twenty-six weeks ago. It should tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It, along with the stock market, will also tumble in the improbable event of deflation. This index continues to move north, which is inconsistent with equity related bulls.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

The Santa Clause rally did not happen last year. As stated a few days ago, last year’s omission increases the probability of a Santa Clause rally this year. It happened last week. More of the same would be appreciated early next week.

Four of the eight major indices are red bulls. The market does not move robustly to the south when any of the indices are red bulls. Therefore, your hold positions are safe. The eight major indices are above the bullish red curve by an average of 0.6%, although four of them are below the bullish red curve. They are the NASDAQ, NASDAQ100, and surprisingly the normal bullish S&P400 and S&P600.

The eight major indices are up 3.6% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bull on October 28, 2003. That annualizes to 25.2%.

As stated for the past several weeks, Force Vectors continue their quick up and down oscillations. Right now, they are pointing to the north. That is bullish. Seven of the eight major indices’ Vector Pressure is located in bullish domains. The NASDAQ100 Vector Pressure has drifted slightly into bearish domain. The others continue to hover near neutrality.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The Big Board’s Indicant Volume Indicator is beginning to express robust behavior, as big money rotates into the larger cap stocks. The NASDAQ’s Indicant Volume Indictor continues to show lethargic behavior. Bullish behavior is possible with such expressions, but robust volume would garnish bullish energy.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The two combined indexes are up by an average of 2.8% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bull on November 24, 2003. That annualizes to 40.3%. The Dow is up 5.1% and the NASDAQ is up 0.5%.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

Perspectives

There is no change from last week. The market continues to gravitate toward its breakout line. It is safely above the breakdown lines.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant, please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All eight major indices are bulls. They are up an average of 18.3% for an annualized gain of 36.4% since the MTI Bull signals an average of 26.1 weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is down from 47.9% reported twenty-eight weeks ago, but up slightly from last week.

The DJIA is up 20.6% since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003 That is up from 14.1% reported nine weeks ago. The NASDAQ Composite is the strongest Mid-term Bull. It is up 37.3% since the March 22, 2003 MTI Bull signal, which is also up slightly from 34.6% nine weeks ago. That annualizes to 138.5%, which is up from 80.9% reported twenty weeks ago. It was up slightly from last week.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Twenty-one of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant remain as Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 71.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 53.0 weeks ago for an annualized gain of 72.9%, which equals the 72.9% reported twenty-seven weeks ago.

The lone bear market, China – SSEC, is down 2.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear 21.0 weeks ago. It continues its rebound, but needs to do more before anointed as a bull. It moved south last week.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

Dec 14, 2003 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 12, Issue 2 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

Bullish Seasonality – Part 3

Between 1833 and 1984, you would have lost money if you had invested in the stock market only during presidential post election years. Since Ronald Reagan’s second term election in 1984, the market has been bullish in the post election years. Many of those years produced double-digit stock market gains. George W. Bush’s 2001-post election year was the first losing year since Reagan’s 1981-post election year.

 The stock market is up during presidential post election years since 1833 by 67.9%. It was up 27.0% in 1985, up 27.0% in 1989, up 13.7% in 1993, up 22.6% in 1997, and down 7.1% in 2001. This adds up to a gain of 83.9% since 1985. As you can see, the great bull market that originated in the early 1980’s is the only reason there is a net gain during presidential post election years. Prior to then the market was a loser in those years.

The next presidential post election year is not until 2005. There is plenty of time before we have to worry about that. The underlying theme around the world that began with Magna Carta in June 1215 is individual freedom. It has been a slow and grueling process, but that underlying theme is bullish for the stock market and consequently prosperity for all to enjoy.

Many individuals along the way have tried to obsolete the Magna Carta and supersede it with “my way.” People such as Adolph Hitler and Saddam Hussein have tried to overrule your individual freedom and rights with their views on how people should behave. All politicians around the world possess varying degrees of that sort of attribute. They simply take from the productive - either for themselves or for giving to the non-productive so they can manipulate the majority to maintain power.

Fortunately, the electronic media and freedom of the press continues to erode the influence of political power around the world.  The people of Iraq illustrate this. They are happier to be free of oppression. Consequently, they will be more productive. That freedom will spread into that region, as it has been spreading around the world since Magna Carta.

The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish. It is nearing an end. The Dow is up 20.4% so far this year against a presidential pre-election year average gain of 10.3% since 1833.

As stated in most of the Indicant Weekly Reports in 2002, the market would find bottom in last year’s mid-term election year. The various Indicant models signaled bear during most of 2002, until October 2002 when the Mid-term Indicant signaled several buying sprees.

Seven of the eight major indices found bottom on October 9, 2002. The Quick-term and Mid-term Indicant signaled bull shortly thereafter. The NASDAQ100 found its bottom on October 7, 2002. There was overall consistency when the eight major indices found bottom. All of them bottomed within two days of one another.

However, the various indices peaked at different times. The Dow peaked at 11723 on January 14, 2000, while the NASDAQ peaked at 5048.62 on March 9, 2000. The Short-term Indicant signaled bear shortly after the NASDAQ peaked and it did not signal bull for over three years. That Short-term Indicant Bear signal lasted longer than the 1929-1932 Short-term Indicant Bear signal.

The Dow is down 14.3% since its all time high while the NASDAQ is down 61.4% from its all time high. The NASDAQ100 is down by 69.9% since its all time high of 4704.73 set on March 24, 2000. However, the NASDAQ is up 45.9% during this presidential pre-election year and as earlier stated the Dow is up 20.4% this year.

The Dow is up 37.8% since the mid-term election year low set on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up a whopping 74.9% since then. The NASDAQ100 is up 76.1% since its mid-term election year low set on October 7, 2002. The Mid-term Indicant has had you in stocks and funds during most of this time.

The second most bullish year on the presidential election year cycle is the election year, itself. Since 1833, the stock market is up 285.2% for an annual average gain of 6.8%. Based on this you can expect 2004 to be bullish. If history repeats, it will be mildly bullish. There is no need to forecast this, but it is good to have anticipatory awareness so you can plan how you will react to the various Indicant signals this coming year.

There will be more about political seasonality as well as calendar seasonality in the next few weeks. So far, this year has exceeded historical expectations. The various Indicant models will keep you in a fact-based, as opposed to hype-based, informational – “action-to-take” flow in 2005.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated two buy signals and no sell signals for stocks and funds.

In addition to the sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding fifteen stocks and funds of the 296 tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 25.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 35.9 weeks ago.

The avoided stocks and funds one year ago amounted to only eight stocks and funds, as the buying barrage fostering the current bull market was now completed. Those stocks and funds one year ago were down an average of 27.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 23.0 weeks earlier. The current bull market was in its embryonic stage at this time one year ago. Unfortunately, it was enduring the worse December since 1931, but mild compared to the 1931 market.

In addition to the buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 279 of the 296 stocks and funds currently tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 53.1%, which is down from last week and the week before that. That annualizes to 82.6%, which is down from 124.1% reported on June 7, 2003, but up from 50.2% reported on February 15, 2003. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 279 stocks and funds for an average of 33.5 weeks.

The stocks/funds with hold signals approximate one year ago when the Indicant was signaling hold for 283 stocks and funds out of the 296 being tracked. At that time, the Mid-term Indicant was holding those stocks and funds for an average of 11.5 weeks. They were up 14.8% (annualized at 67.4%). Many of those stocks and funds continued to climb in December 2002, which was the worse December since 1931.

This paragraph is a repeat from last few weeks. The current bull market and buying barrage slightly over a year ago followed the predicted market bottom in 2002. The mid-term presidential election year phenomenon occurred consistent with history and even more impressive was how the market synchronized with near perfection with normal seasonality. The Dow30 found bottom on October 9, 2002 at 7286.27. The NASDAQ found bottom on the same day at 1114.11. As earlier stated, the Indicant began its buying barrage about one year ago just after the market bottomed from the severe 2000-2002 Bear Market. Some of you recall the Short-term Indicant Bear for the NASDAQ was the longest in history. It even exceeded the Dow’s 1929-1931 Short-term Indicant Bear. The good news is that the NASDAQ’s decline did not lead to a depression, which is a clear indication of how much influence the tech stocks do not have on the economy.

This paragraph is a repeat from the past several weeks. We want to make certain you understand this. The mid-term election year phenomenon found the market bottom, right on cue in 2002. The presidential pre-election year phenomenon is the most bullish year on the presidential election cycle. We only have three more weeks remaining to enjoy this phenomenon. However, the presidential election year is also historically bullish. The following link will take you to charts that explain this phenomenon, which is currently underway and for you to enjoy. It is in a “members only” section. This paragraph will repeat throughout this year.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0100.htm

Make certain you read the entire page on the above link. You will see there are exceptions. So far, this year does not appear to be an exception. If it becomes an exception, the Quick-term Indicant and the other Indicant models will let you know. Right now, the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant is signaling bear, but that can change quickly since this is a presidential pre-election year.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant is now recommending a more tolerant stop loss of 8%. Bearish seasonality is over and we are into bullish seasonality. When and if the Quick-term Indicant signals bear, you should adjust your stop losses to 5%. That could happen during the course of next week. Vector pressure is negative for six of the eight major indices. When and if they all turn negative, we will need to tighten up the stop losses.

Use either an 8% trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 8% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 15% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds in those “bearish” conditions. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report.

Based on the time of year and the current configurations of the Quick-term Indicant, now is not a good time for aggressive buying. If you elect to buy at this time, make certain you establish the prescribed stop losses when you place your order and continually update it.

Comments about Stocks and Funds

Last week the Mid-term Indicant reluctantly signaled sell for Monster.com. The technical influence to sell was microscopic under the influence of bullish seasonality. The market sold off the stock on news of it losing market share to the print press. The Mid-term Indicant had no choice but to signal sell, as the stock’s price was galloping quickly to the south on its bearish yellow curve. Holding and hoping is not the way to invest. Never argue with the trend or cycle.

Some stocks are not so nice as to present smooth trends and cycles. They behave more like popcorn early into the popping cycle. That quick up and down motion is exhilarating to the trader, but nerve racking for the serious fundamental investor. The Indicant has both types of members, but slants its signals toward technical factors.

Fundamentals and stock price performance has produced more dismay than wealth on a short-term cycle. Long-term thinking and fundamental soundness generally enjoys long-term northerly stock price movement. However, any company can go bankrupt at any time. That is why those of you who are fundamentalist should keep up with the management of your companies. If they are dilettantes, dump the stock. They will ruin it. The Mid-term Indicant monitors the movement of a stock price regardless of what is influencing its direction.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy for Monster.com again this weekend. It bounced nicely to the north last week.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Stks-NAS100/NS12.htm#68

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only. Be patient with this download. It takes a few minutes.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information is on a single page in the web site. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

The Internet sector moved south last week, while most other sectors remained the same or moved north slightly. Energy shortages in the Northeast trigged a spike in energy prices. Health related securities moved from neutral to near bullish domains, but still lacking a solid bullish commitment. All in all last week’s small movement toward convergence is much the same this week. Although the market is in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality, it is still lacking solid market convergence – an attribute consistent with robust bull markets.

Economic Outlook

The 3 Month T-Bill slipped a little last week, but still centered on a gentle movement to the northeast. Greenspan is continuing a status quo posture on interest rates. He will most likely support Bush’s reelection bid and not mess with them until sometimes next year.

There is no change from last week. The US Dollar continues to nosedive. This is helping exporters and hurting those that import. Overall, that is favorable to the U.S. economy, but the world is smaller. All economies must flourish to maintain civil order.

Again, there is no change from last week. Commodity prices continue to skyrocket. Greenspan is obviously very concerned as the lead-time from increased raw material costs work their way to pricing is within the presidential popularity cycle. Americans vote their pocket book. It does not matter what the stock market is doing or what interest rates are. It only matters that people have jobs and are making money. Interest rates and inflation can skyrocket, but as long as people are making money and feel secure, the incumbent is re-elected. The populace does not anticipate the next four years. They feel a certain sense of prosperity on Election Day and that is the only thing that produces presidential popularity.

So far, there has been little impact to the Consumer Price Index from the profound increase in commodity prices. That is due, in part, to increased productivity.

All economic data is at the following link:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Seventy-nine weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Seventy-two weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Sixty-three weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 99.6%, which is significantly higher than 47.1% reported twenty-one weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate is 48.7%, which is up from 28.8% reported twenty-one weeks ago. Last week, this fund was down, significantly.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% seventy-seven weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Seventy weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 130.1%, which is higher than the 75.9% reported twenty-one weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 48.1%, which is higher than 23.1% reported twenty-one weeks ago. This fund down, significantly, last week.

As stated in the past you can monitor the above two funds and the options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Thirty-three weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant to signal new bull. Since the Mid-term Bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 57.9%, which is up significantly from 18.8% reported twenty-one weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is 93.1%, which is more than the 50.7% reported twenty-one weeks ago, but lower than 142.5% reported twenty-five weeks ago. It should tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It, along with the stock market, will also tumble in the improbable event of deflation. This index continues to move north, which is inconsistent with equity related bulls.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

The eight major indices are attempting to posture of the almost annual Santa Clause rally. The reason it is “almost” is that it does not happen every year. It did not happen last year, which was counter-intuitive for a baby bull market. Last year’s disappointing December was due, in part, from profit taking from the October-November buying spree.

As stated last week, the bull is safe as long as we are discussing its relative position to the bullish red curve. There will be some concern if the dialog evolves around the bearish yellow curve - something we have not done since last February. That continues to be the case. Four of the eight major indices are red bulls.

The eight major indices are up 2.5% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bull on October 28, 2003. That annualizes to 19.8%.

Force Vectors continue their quick up and down oscillations. Right now, they are again pointing to the north. That is bullish. What is more comforting is that all eight major indices’ Vector Pressure is located in bullish domains. They continue to hover near neutrality, but this is a period of bullish seasonality. If this were late summer, it would be a different story. Expect, at worse, non-bearish behavior.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The Indicant Volume Indicator continues to express lethargic behavior, although the Big Board’s moved up a little last week. Bullish behavior is possible with such expressions, but robust volume would help bullish seasonality.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The two combined indexes are up by an average of 1.6% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bull week before last. That annualizes to 29.5%. The Dow is up 3.0% since the Short-term Bull signal on November 24, 2003. The NASDAQ is up 0.1% since its November 24, 2003 bull signal.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

Perspectives

There is no change from last week. The market continues to gravitate toward its breakout line. It is safely above the breakdown lines.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant, please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All eight major indices are bulls. They are up an average of 16.8% for an annualized gain of 34.7% since the MTI Bull signals an average of 25.1 weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is down from 47.9% reported twenty-five weeks ago.

The DJIA is up 17.8% since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003 That is up slightly from 14.1% reported eight weeks ago. The NASDAQ Composite is the strongest Mid-term Bull. It is up 37.1% since the March 22, 2003 MTI Bull signal, which is also up slightly from 34.6% eight weeks ago. That annualizes to 138.0%, which is up from 80.9% reported nineteen weeks ago. It was down slightly from last week.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Twenty-one of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant remain as Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 71.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 52.0 weeks ago for an annualized gain of 71.4%, which approximates the 72.9% reported twenty-six weeks ago.

The lone bear market, China – SSEC, is down slightly since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear 20.0 weeks ago. It continues its rebound, but needs to do more before anointed as a bull. If it gets a gain position from the last signal, then the Mid-term Indicant will signal bull.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.ht 

Two of the option indices are down 4.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear an average of 9.5 weeks ago. The bears are the Volatility Index and Oilfield Services. The Oilfield Services Index moved strongly to the north last week, but the cyclical pattern and trend do not support a bull signal at this time.

Dec 07, 2003 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 12, Issue 1 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

Bullish Seasonality – Part 2

It was noted last week that the market is now into the six-month period of bullish seasonality. That began officially on November 1. There is more to the story. We are into the heart of bullish seasonality on a historical basis.

December through January is the most bullish bi-monthly period of the year. The NASDAQ is up an average of 6.4% since 1970 and the Dow is up an average of 3.4% since 1950 during this bi-monthly period. It is the second most bullish bi-monthly period for the S&P500, where it is up 3.3% on average since 1950.

The November – January rolling quarter is the strongest for all three major indices. The Dow averages a gain of 5.0% from November through January in the past fifty-three years. The S&P 500 does the same. The NASDAQ is up a whopping 8.2% during the November – January rolling quarter. We’re still inside that rolling quarter. Since November 2003 was disappointing, one is not unreasonable in expecting a bullish recoil to make up the difference.

There are a few sound fundamental factors evolving to support normal seasonal behavior. Productivity moved up by 9.4%, which is the highest in twenty years. Although that represents some cost cutting efforts, the folks who kept their jobs are getting more products and services out than what their cost to do so is. Productivity improvement is the heart and soul to an improving economy and quality of life.

Factory output enjoyed its best gain since 1983. High factory utilization coupled with rapid productivity growth is an unbelievably nice combination to enjoy. That means production costs will go down. As long as the quality is there, expect the first decade of this century to be heartened with economic happiness and well-being. The only unknown variable is terrorism’s impact on the economy.

Last but not least, George W. Bush did what we asked him to do about eighteen months ago. He rescinded steel tariffs. If he had not done that, trade wars would have started and the economy would have headed for a tailspin. Supporting the inefficient and incompetent is never good for any economy. It appears political leadership is siding with the reality of survival of the fittest. Protectionism is unnatural. It would produce more harm than good; much like the great depression of the 1930’s. George W. Bush has now done the right thing, but keep in mind there was some damage and thus this bull’s growth has been muted.

The October – January rolling third is the most bullish for the Dow and S&P500. It is the NASDAQ’s second most bullish with an average gain of 8.4%. The Dow and S&P500 are up 5.3% and 5.7%, respectively. Although February is typically not that bullish, the NASDAQ’s most bullish third is November – February. It averages a whopping 9.0% gain.

The market found bottom right on cue in 2002. The Quick-term Indicant and Short-term Indicant signaled bear most of that year and rightfully signaled bull that is consistent with historical expectations.

The presidential pre-election year phenomenon kicked in during most of 2003 with steady bullish behavior. Although politician’s only influence on the economy and stock market is to undo their prior damage, the emotional based stock market has a pattern consistent with the presidential election year cycle.

The Dow’s average gain during presidential pre-election years is 10.3%. As of the end of November, the Dow is up 17.2% in 2003. Since 1833, the stock market is up 432.3% during presidential pre-election years. The Dow’s current 100-year average amounts to 7.2% as of the end of 2002. As you can see, this has been a happy year for those of you, who desire bulls.

Since 1833, there have been thirty-one up years and eleven down years during presidential pre-election years. The average gain on the up years has amounted to 19.3%. Much of that is influenced by Woodrow’s Wilson’s 1913 when the Dow increased by a whopping 81.7%. The average loss during the eleven down years amounted to 15.2%. Interestingly, Woodrow Wilson’s election year of 1914 yielded a loss of 4.2% based on the Dow’s performance. That is not unusual following such a strong year as in 1913. The Dow of 2003 is nowhere near that of 1913 and 2004 should not emulate the disappointment of 1914. There is plenty of reason to be bullish for 2004.

The second most bullish year on the presidential election year cycle is the election year. The market has increased 285.2% since 1833 for an average gain of 6.8%. The best election year was in 1925 where Calvin Coolidge enjoyed a 48.2% gain. We’ll take that in 2004, but no promises. The various Indicant models will keep you posted day in and day out and week end and week out. There is no need to forecast, which are always wrong anyway.

History does not always repeat itself and following historical models alone will invite investment grief from time to time. We learned that this year when the market kept moving up during the bearish seasonality half from May through October. The Dow moved up 15.6% in the bearish half between May and October. If you invested in the Dow during that half since 1950 you would lose money. If you had stayed out in 2003, and many did, you would have not enjoyed the continuing bull, which started in October 2002.

The NASDAQ moved up 32.0 between May through October of this year. During that time, the Mid-term Indicant had you holding and average of 91 NAS100 stocks. That compares favorably to 2002 when the NASDAQ fell 21.2% from May through October. During that time, the Mid-term Indicant had you holding an average of only 29 of the NAS100 stocks. That average is inflated due to the tremendous number of buy signals that was generated in October 2002.

The stock market is more emotionally based that fundamentally based on quick and short-term cycles. But, who cares? We only care if the market is going up or down. That is the essence of successful investing. The various Indicant models bridge today’s reality with historical expectations. There are some concerns on a Quick-term basis, but the Short-term and Mid-term Indicants are clearly signaling bull. Please read on.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated eight buy signals and three sell signals for stocks and funds.

In addition to the sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding fourteen stocks and funds of the 296 tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 24.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 35.4 weeks ago.

The avoided stocks and funds one year ago amounted to only nine stocks and funds, as the buying barrage fostering the current bull market was now completed. Those stocks and funds one year ago were down an average of 30.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 22.4 weeks earlier. The current bull market was in its embryonic stage at this time one year ago. Unfortunately, it was entering the worse December since 1931, but mild compared to the 1931 market.

In addition to the buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 271 of the 296 stocks and funds currently tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 53.7%, which is down from last week. That annualizes to 84.0%, which is down from 124.1% reported on June 7, 2003, but up from 50.2% reported on February 15, 2003. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 271 stocks and funds for an average of 33.2 weeks.

The stocks/funds with hold signals approximate one year ago when the Indicant was signaling hold for 286 stocks and funds out of the 296 being tracked. At that time, the Mid-term Indicant was holding those stocks and funds for an average of 10.4 weeks. They were up 16.2% (annualized at 81.0%). Many of those stocks and funds continued to climb in December 2002, which was the worse December since 1931.

This paragraph is a repeat from last few weeks. The current bull market and buying barrage slightly over a year ago followed the predicted market bottom in 2002. The mid-term presidential election year phenomenon occurred consistent with history and even more impressive was how the market synchronized with near perfection with normal seasonality. The Dow30 found bottom on October 9, 2002 at 7286.27. The NASDAQ found bottom on the same day at 1114.11. As earlier stated, the Indicant began its buying barrage about one year ago just after the market bottomed from the severe 2000-2002 Bear Market. Some of you recall the Short-term Indicant Bear for the NASDAQ was the longest in history. It even exceeded the Dow’s 1929-1931 Short-term Indicant Bear. The good news is that the NASDAQ’s decline did not lead to a depression, which is a clear indication of how much influence the tech stocks do not have on the economy.

This paragraph is a repeat from the past several weeks. We want to make certain you understand this. The mid-term election year phenomenon found the market bottom, right on cue in 2002. The presidential pre-election year phenomenon is the most bullish year on the presidential election cycle. We only have three more weeks remaining to enjoy this phenomenon. However, the presidential election year is also historically bullish. The following link will take you to charts that explain this phenomenon, which is currently underway and for you to enjoy. It is in a “members only” section. This paragraph will repeat throughout this year.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0100.htm

Make certain you read the entire page on the above link. You will see there are exceptions. So far, this year does not appear to be an exception. If it becomes an exception, the Quick-term Indicant and the other Indicant models will let you know. Right now, the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant is signaling bear, but that can change quickly since this is a presidential pre-election year.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant is now recommending a more tolerant stop loss of 8%. Bearish seasonality is over and we are into bullish seasonality. When and if the Quick-term Indicant signals bear, you should adjust your stop losses to 5%. That could happen during the course of next week. Vector pressure is negative for six of the eight major indices. When and if they all turn negative, we will need to tighten up the stop losses.

Use either an 8% trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 8% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 15% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds in those “bearish” conditions. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report.

Based on the time of year and the current configurations of the Quick-term Indicant, now is not a good time for aggressive buying. If you elect to buy at this time, make certain you establish the prescribed stop losses when you place your order and continually update it.

Comments about Stocks and Funds

If you like to trade a lot, you must be bored. The buy and sell signal volume has been low ever since the major buying sprees in October 2002 and again in March 2003. The stocks and funds that have been receiving buy and sell signals are the stragglers and those that surprise Wall Street a lot. Occasionally, voodoo bookkeeping and the soft-handed dilettante manager’s reveal their ineptness triggering buy/sell signals.

The only stock of interest this past week is Monster.com. One would think that with increasing manufacturing capacity requirements, Monster’s earnings’ expectations would be bullish. However, headlines hold that Monster is losing market share to the print press for jobs. Isn’t the Internet suppose to save the forest? The management of any company needs to perform regardless of economic conditions. Losing market share is never a good thing for any company.

Monster.com is NASDAQ #68. As you can see from the chart, it has fallen below all the critical benchmarks. The Indicant reluctantly signaled sell during this period of bullish seasonality.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Stks-NAS100/NS12.htm#68

The stock could rebound, but when they start taking on these sort of attributes, it is better to get rid of it as opposed to holding and hoping. Monster.com was one of the triple digit performers only a few weeks ago. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on March 22, 2003 at $11.33. This week’s sell signal was at $20.00 for a 75% gain, less commissions and taxes. That is somewhat disappointing, but it is necessary to sell when it is riding a declining yellow and below the long-term blue curve. Hopefully, management will rally the company and regain their lost market share.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only. Be patient with this download. It takes a few minutes.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information is on a single page in the web site. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

The Internet sector moved south last week, while most other sectors remained the same or moved north slightly. Energy shortages in the Northeast trigged a spike in energy prices. Health related securities moved from neutral to near bullish domains, but still lacking a solid bullish commitment. All in all last week’s small movement toward convergence is much the same this week. Although the market is in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality, it is still lacking solid market convergence – an attribute consistent with robust bull markets.

Economic Outlook

The 3 Month T-Bill continues creep upward but still remains at historically low levels. The same is true for CD’s. It is a wonder anyone would put money into CD’s, but they are. There is no threat to the stock market, yet.

The US Dollar continues to nosedive. This is helping exporters and hurting those that import. The exchange rate, as it is, most likely influenced George Bush’s decision to rescind the tariff on steel imports. The weak dollar is making US Steel cheaper and imports more expensive. The steel industry had two years of political help and now has the weak dollar on its side.

Commodity prices continue to skyrocket. They have passed through their normal cyclical pattern and setting new heights. Gold continues to move higher. Oil is bouncy but with a northerly trend. Commodities are depressing the stock market’s bull, even though bullish seasonality is paramount right now.

All economic data is at the following link:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Seventy-eight weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Seventy-one weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Sixty-two weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 117.3%, which is significantly higher than 47.1% reported twenty weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate is 57.9%, which is up from 28.8% reported twenty weeks ago. Last week, this fund was up, slightly.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% seventy-six weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Sixty-nine weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 137.8%, which is higher than the 75.9% reported twenty weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 51.3%, which is higher than 23.1% reported twenty weeks ago. This fund was up slightly last week.

As stated in the past you can monitor the above two funds and the options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Thirty-two weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant to signal new bull. Since the Mid-term Bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 64.8%, which is up significantly from 18.8% reported twenty weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is 107.5%, which is more than the 50.7% reported twenty weeks ago, but lower than 142.5% reported twenty-four weeks ago. It should tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It, along with the stock market, will also tumble in the improbable event of deflation. This index continues to move north, which is inconsistent with equity related bulls.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

After several weeks of slightly nervous behavior, seven of the eight major indexes were below the bullish red curve two weeks ago. Last week, three of the eight major indices were above the bullish red curve. Six of the eight major indices closed below the bullish red curve last Friday. The two most bullish with respect to their relative position to the bullish red curve are exactly equal to it.

The bull is safe as long as we are discussing its relative position to the bullish red curve. There will be some concern if the dialog evolves around the bearish yellow curve - something we have not done since last February.

The eight major indices are up 1.3% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bull on October 28, 2003. That annualizes to 11.7%.

Force Vectors continue their quick up and down oscillations. There has not been any robust behavior since the initial bull move in October 2002. The configurations support bearish behavior, but bullish seasonality phenomena are influential.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The Indicant Volume Indicator is still expressing lethargic interest in the market. Bullish behavior is possible with such expressions, but robust volume would help bullish seasonality.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The two combined indexes are up by an average of 0.3% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bull week before last. That annualizes to 10.5%. The Dow is up 1.2% since the Short-term Bull signal on November 24, 2003. The NASDAQ is down 0.5% since its November 24, 2003 bull signal.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

Perspectives

The market continues to gravitate toward its breakout line. It is safely above the breakdown lines.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant, please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All eight major indices are bulls. They are up an average of 15.3% for an annualized gain of 32.9% since the MTI Bull signals an average of 24.1 weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is down from 47.9% reported twenty-four weeks ago.

The DJIA is up 15.7% since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003 That is up slightly from 14.1% reported seven weeks ago. The NASDAQ Composite is the strongest Mid-term Bull. It is up 36.4% since the March 22, 2003 MTI Bull signal, which is also up slightly from 34.6% seven weeks ago. That annualizes to 135.0%, which is up from 80.9% reported eighteen weeks ago. It was down slightly from last week.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Twenty-one of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant remain as Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 71.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 51.0 weeks ago for an annualized gain of 73.0%, which approximates the 72.9% reported twenty-five weeks ago.

The lone bear market, China – SSEC, is down 1.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear 19.0 weeks ago. It continues its rebound, but needs to do more before anointed as a bull.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

Two of the option indices are down 4.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear an average of 7.5 weeks ago. The bears are the Volatility Index and Oilfield Services. Several oil field service stocks bounced northward last week on gas shortage headlines. Some of them received reluctant buy signals.

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