Dec 2008 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

December 28, 2008 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 12, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Near-term Indicant Nearing Inflection Point

A Near-term Indicant Bull was born in late November 2008. This birth was consistent with the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. It also was supported by the historical standards of normal election year bullishness. Other than “yellow bear” configurations, several near-term attributes, such as Force Vector behavior favored the conditions for this new bull.

At the time of the bull’s birth there was near zero probability of it attaining election year bullishness for the year. However, the baby bull was supported by historical standards. That support was to minimize the depth of this election year bearishness.

Woodrow Wilson’s 1920 is the greatest presidential-election-year bear market since 1832. It finished that year down by 32.9%. Click the following link to view its chart.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTIRYS-01-DJI-1916-1920.htm

George Bush’s 2008 will set the new record that spans over 150-years unless there is a healthy bullish bounce early next week. Without a bullish miracle, 2008’s presidential election will be the worse on record. So far this year, the Dow is down 35.8% this year.

Of course, George W. Bush did not cause the bear market of 2008. The Congress and prior presidents caused it. As is usual, political motivations damaged capitalism.

Some pundits argue that relaxed regulation caused the recession that is now underway. Many of them point to George W. Bush as being responsible for relaxing regulation. Relaxing regulations with already relaxed regulators cannot be the problem.

Regulators are mere people, who are encumbered with a brain of only three and a half pounds or so like the rest of us. They are not special people. Their ambition is lacking. After all they got a job with the government. Their pay for the most part remains the same, regardless of how well they perform. Adding more regulation will only suck more potential productive people from the free markets to yawn their way through life by joining already relaxed regulators.

Although all politicians are destructive to the economy, George W. Bush had no accelerating influence to the current recession. Just by being a politician, he is not free of guilt, but not more so than the Congress, who directly caused this recession.

One has to wonder if the average November 1991 investor would have been told the stock market would go up 194.2% between then and December 26, 2008. That would provide an annualized rate of return of approximately 11.3%. That would beat CD’s, money market funds, and treasury bills. Most would take that. With that, the question is, “why are so many upset.” The DJIA is up 194.2% since November 1991.

There are no guarantees that it will be up by that amount next week or next month. It could be down from November 1991 levels in a few months. Based on political rhetoric, the DJIA could very well be below 2000 by 2010. If politicians aggressively implement social policies, the DJIA could approach zero by 2010.

A very near-term question to ask, “is the investing community set to allow George W. Bush’s last presidential election year to be bearishly record setting?”

A nice 4% bullish bounce before next Wednesday’s close would facilitate Woodrow Wilson’s 1920 as the worse presidential election year performance in terms of bear markets. The market is setting up nicely for that possibility.

Unfortunately, the market is equally poised to move south within the next few days.

That technical conflict is what leads to an impending inflection point. The market is about to shift out of its recent flat behavior into a cycle that is either bullish or bearish.

Click the following link to view a couple of charts and commentary to better understand this phenomena.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/Supplements/Dec/2008-12.htm

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals. There have been 518-sell signals since October 26, 2007 and 29-buy signals since October 31, 2008.

Although there were no buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for only 33 of the 344-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 55.3%. That annualizes to 68.7%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 33-stocks and funds for an average of 41.9-weeks.

Although there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 311-stocks and funds of the 344- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 36.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 31.7-weeks ago.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding all Mutual Funds. All one-hundred funds are down an average of 34.2% since their sell signals an average of 28.2-weeks ago. Even though a bullish spurt is possible, the Mid-term Indicant will be more conservative before signaling buy for these funds. Bearish yellow must be toppled first.

One year ago, on Dec 28, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 243-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 128.7-weeks. They were up by an average of 147.6% (annualized at 59.6%). There were 102-avoided stocks and funds at that time. Those avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 13.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 18.6-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 313-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Dec 29, 2006. They were up by an average of 106.1% (annualized at 62.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 87.9-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 31-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 13.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 20.2-weeks earlier.

There were 269-stocks and funds with hold signals on Dec 30, 2005 since their buy signals an average of 85.8-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 94.8% (annualized at 57.5%). There were 50-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 16.0% from their respective sell signals an average of 27.2-weeks earlier.

On Dec 24, 2004, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 302-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 72.3% (annualized at 66.4%) since their buy signals an average of 56.7-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 16-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 39.6% since their sell signals an average of 56.7-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Dec 27, 2003, there were 283-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 55.8% (annualized at 82.9%) since their respective buy signals an average of 35.0-weeks earlier. There were 10-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 26.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 37.2-weeks earlier.

On Dec 28, 2002, there were 274-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 14.2%, annualizing at 54.7%. There were ten avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 25.6% since their sell signals an average of 21.9-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All updated information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Even though Quick-term and Short-term configurations are increasingly supporting the heart and soul of bullish seasonality, the Mid-term Indicant may not participate in much buying. Longer-term elements are not bullish even if the heart and soul of bullish seasonality produces exciting bullish configurations.

There are only about four weeks remaining for the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. So far, this historical standard has been disappointing. However, configurations still support it, albeit a bit shaky.

Click the following link that will take you to the tangential protection charts.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is imbedded in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months.

The Daily Indicant Stock Market Report for the last trading day of the current week is near the conclusion of this weekly stock market report. It is emailed each weekend, separately, so you can read it, either as a separate document, or in this document.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 16.9% since its secular low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 37.4% and the S&P500 is up 12.4% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 50.1%.

The Dow is down 39.9% since its last closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 46.5% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600 is down 42.4% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007.

The NASDAQ is down 69.7% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 42.9% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 27.4% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

The Dow is down 35.8% so far this year. The NASDAQ is down 42.3% this year. These conditions are incongruent with historical standards. This year should be bullish, based on those standards. The stock market occasionally delights in violating historical standards. This always happens when such standards gain in popularity. As stated for several years now, the phenomenon of commonality disallows stock market victories by the masses.

The heart and soul of bullish seasonality is again attempting to configure. It is embryonic and thus vulnerable. The past few attempts to configure bullishly were slashed by the bear. However, this attempt underway is demonstrating significant resistance to the bears’ desires, although weakening in that resistance the past few days.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 20.6% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%. This year had been configuring with 2001 similarity, but there is a mild chance historical standards (bullish) may be developing. Unfortunately, there are only a few days left this year and the variance to historical standards will be significant. Keep in mind, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality is now technically available to foster a Quick-term bullish cycle. It has a very short time before the technical period expires for this bullish potential; about four weeks.

The NASDAQ was down by 29.9% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 47.7%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 7.8%. It was up by 3.4% in 2005. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. In 2006, it was up 9.4% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain. It was up by 12.8% at this time last year and finished 2007 up by 9.8%. As previously stated, the NASDAQ is down 42.3% this year.

This year will be record setting bearishness for a presidential election year if a nice bullish cycle does not help round out the year. The problem is the few number of days remaining this year. Even the sharpest Santa Claus rally would not dampen the significance of this bear.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% due to increasing bullish influences for your longer-term holdings. The Mid-term Indicant will be passive in generating buy signals even with the support of a Quick-term bull cycle. The longer-term attributes remain configured in support of the bear.

If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 10% trailing stop loss.

If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 20% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending and excessive concerns about social issues. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money. High performing companies remain focused on honoring the investments made by their shareholders.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds with those “bearish” attributes. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report. Use the Quick-term Indicant as a guide in your decision-making processes. If the stock price is falling in a Quick-term Bear market, it is not advisable to buy.

Do not short on stocks if they are up from an avoid signal. Stocks go up more often than they go down. Stocks have a tendency to march to their own drumbeat when rising. Some stocks rise and continue to rise in the most severe of bear markets. Short selling opens up an opportunity for the snakes on Wall Street to take everything you own. They can cause a stock to rise at their whim and without any regard to fundamental reason. It usually does not make sense to bet against the sweat and toil of hard-working people.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

As stated the past two weeks, interest rates continue nose-diving. That could be an understatement. They are crashing. And even that could be an understatement. The Fed has left no wiggle room. If the economy does not improve quickly, the bags of policy tricks are few. The economy always runs on its own merits, but policy makers and politicians worsen what is already bad. The only policy they can incorporate is undoing their prior damage.

Gold continued rebounding the past two weeks while other commodities continue their free fall. Gold prices are in the middle of a bullish cycle against a bearish trend. There is a lot of emotion tied to gold and difficult to assess its future. There are a few thousand years of historical standards suggesting it will rise during periods of economic uncertainty and fear. The problem with that historical standard is that it is nonsensical. However, gold, when compared to worthless paper currency, does make sense, as it has a tradition of a trade currency that helped remove the inconveniences of barter trade. In other words gold is a measure that values other assets that have much more economic meaning, such as items that relate to food, shelter, clothing, etc. Gold, by itself, is of little value, except when paper currencies and other trade instruments are viewed as phony.

As stated last week, the CRB Bridge Futures Index remains extremely distraught and foretells of deflationary threats. As stated two weeks ago, “between now and then, economic stability should not be surprising. Once that occurs, this will be reassessed. Gold’s market price is, as usual, a psychological issue with people around the world. However, the severity of that psychological problem is miniscule when compared to politicians who continue eroding the value of paper currencies.”

The U.S. dollar remains strong as the U.S. economy is perceived to have the greatest chance of returning to robustness when compared to other countries.

As stated nine weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with some gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental.

As stated seven weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.”

As stated four weeks ago, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near expiration. Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from time to time, but the trend should remain bearish throughout the next year and into 2010.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 42.5% since that sell signal. It endured mild bearish behavior last week following harsh bearishness in the prior week.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is down 20.4% since the Midterm Indicant signaled sell on August 1, 2008. It was mildly bullish last week.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 141.2% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 26.5% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 46.5% since that sell signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 57.7% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 29.7% since that sell signal.

Energy related funds were again bearish last week. They have endured significant bearishness in 15 of the last 20-weeks.

The SQI signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on August 4, 2008. It is down 29.7% since that sell signal. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the August 4, 2008 sell signal. This fund has been bearish in 29 of the past 48-weeks and in 21 of the past 28-weeks. This ETF remains configured for bearishness on a Short-term basis, but could be challenged in the event it climbs above bearish yellow.

The SQI (Consolidated Short-term and Quick-term Indicant) model signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on November 28, 2008 (last Friday). It is up 10.0% since that buy signal. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 26.0%. Although this fund on a short-term basis is bullish, it is not yet solidly bullish.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no bear signals.

The ten major indices are down by an average of 2.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull for all ten indices on November 28, 2008.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $30,227,443

That beats buy and hold performance of $1,295,535 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $142,867. That beats buy and hold’s $85,493 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $186,209. That beats buy and hold’s $53,060 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 2,233.2%, 67.1%, and 250.9%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the MTI-RYS model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy for ProFunds Ultra Short on September 12, 2008 and it signaled sell on October 31, 2008. It was up over 30% since that September buy signal. It remains too risky to hold for the time being. Once the heart and soul of bullish seasonality expires, this fund will receive a buy signal; most likely in January 2009. It is up 7.8% since the October 31, 2008 sell signal. This fund is volatile and too risky to buy at this time. Five weeks ago, it was up 54.5% since that sell signal. As you can see, it plummeted since then and expected to continue to do so.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Always remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 194.2% (annualized at 11.3%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 995-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Near-term Blue Bulls: All major indices are configured with near-term bullish attributes, excluding contrarian VIX. Some are being subjected to minor bearish threats, but still holding with bullish configurations, albeit weakened. Bullish unanimity remains on a Near-term Indicant basis but nearing either a bullish surge or more bearishness. Status quo of flat to meandering behavior is about to change.

Quick-term Red Bulls: One of thirty, but it is contrarian and the only Quick-term Red Bull.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twenty-eight of thirty. Still supporting bearish behavior, but somewhat encouraging for those desiring near-term bullish behavior.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is bearish 37.4%; still with strong bearish support, but weakening. This suggests bearish trend remains strong, but a near-term bullish cycle remains in tact but losing momentum.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential is bearish 23.1%; this remains solidly in support of the bear, but weakened in that support the past several trading days and continues to weaken. Bullish spurt potential remains in tact, but weakened the past few days..

Short-term Indicant: Breakdown contact density has not occurred in the last 24-trading days. The bear is obviously relaxing. As stated the past several days, bearish fatigue would not be surprising for the next few weeks. The bear is again threatening the baby bull.

Short-term Indicant: Mixed: Near-term bullish bias, but still with Quick-term bearish cycle.

Force Vectors: Eight are in bullish domains. Majority bullish support was lost on December 23, 2008.

Vector Pressure: Potential for a bullish slope is building, but still reside in bearish domains. Strong bullish cycles seldom originate from such configurations. However, bullish spurt potential remains.

STI Tangential Support: None; therefore, bearish. Reverse tangential constructions offer high probability the bear will respond violently to any bullish spurt that may form. This is now again expected closer to the end of January than on the immediate horizon. This bear is nowhere near extinction. It will be long lasting and deep! But for traders, there is some excitement in the attempt to participate in bullish spurts from time to time. For longer-term investors, cash is king until the ETF’s and major indices topple bearish yellow.

Reverse Tangential Support: Being constructed, fostering a very high probability of bearish sustainability. However, there is again some potential for a bullish spurt.

Immediate Tactics: Cash is king except for two extremely conservative buy signals on Friday, November 21, 2008 and several more “conservative” Quick-term and Short-term buy signals on Friday, November 28, 2008. These recent buys are still holding. Longer-term views should avoid buying when prices are below bearish yellow curve. However, short-term interests should enjoy this bullish surge, but the risk/reward is shifting more toward the risk element.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bearish and will remain so with the high number of Yellow Bears.

Current Near-term Bias: Bullish bias born on Friday, November 28, 2008.

Overall Market Status: Near-term configurations support bullish bias, while the Quick-term Indicant remains encumbered with Yellow Bears. The near-term attributes are weakening in their support of the baby bull, but have yet to succumb to the bear’s desire.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Enhanced as volatility is significant and expected.

Volume: Mild bullish bias has been lost in the holiday volume.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

To view the STI-Tangential Protection for ten major indices, click here.

The following is a discussion of each of the ten major indices’ configurations. We will continue doing this until we finalize the tour and complete documentation of bull/bear signaling. The model, which removes all economic, corporate, and other fundamental influences, in addition to normal seasonality, has been thoroughly tested and validated. Documentation is a different matter and it will be completed before the end of the year.

DJIA

12/22/08-Mon-The Near-term Bull remains in tact. Force Vectors continue hovering in bullish domains. Vector Pressure is neutral, but continues to rise, favoring the Near-term Bull. This index is below Bullish Blue Curve. 12/23/08-Tue-The Near-term Bull weakened slightly but remains in tact. 12/24/08-Wed-Force Vectors acquiesced to bearish influences by falling into bearish domains. The Santa Claus rally had no punch; no pizzazz. Since the Bearish Green Curve is rising, the Near-term Indicant will signal bear on contact with the Green Curve. Those desiring bullish expressions wish for the bull’s offense to this bearish event. 12/26/08-Fri-The Near-term Bull is losing momentum. The Bullish Blue Curve is leveling and lacking the desired robustness. Force Vectors have dipped into bearish domains. However, the Force Vector cycle is mature and Vector Pressure remains neutral with a bullish slope to it. Those two attributes support bullish ambition on a short-term basis.

DJ Composites

12/22/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/23/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/24/08-Wed-Force Vectors did not fall into bearish domains today, but it did fall below Vector Pressure. Vector Pressure is rising and thus remains with bullish potential on a Near-term basis. 12/26/08-Fri-Same as DJIA.

DJ Transports

12/22/08-Mon-Same as DJIA, except Vector Pressure climbed into the neutral zone today. This is the weakest index of the Dow’s four majors. If Vector Pressure can hold above bearish domains, significant bearish resistance can manifest. 12/23/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/24/08-Wed-Force Vector remains in neutrality and above neutral Vector Pressure, leaving the Near-term Bull some encouragement to grow. 12/26/08-Fri-Same as DJIA except Force Vectors have not fallen into bearish domains.

DJ Utilities

12/22/08-Mon-Same as DJIA except for its unusual behavior the past several days. It has very little movement in either direction. However, as long as Force Vectors remain elevated above neutrality, the Near-term Bull should continue in spite of its lackluster behavior the past several days. 12/23/08-Tue-Same as yesterday. 12/24/08-Wed-The Near-term Indicant’s bullish blue curve is weakening and nearing collapse. However, Force Vector and Vector Pressure remain neutral. Therefore, the Near-term Bull remains in tact. 12/26/08-Fri-Same as Dow Transports.

NASDAQ

12/22/08-Mon-This remains a solid Near-term Bull. As you can see it is riding the crest of its bullish blue curve. Today’s bearishness has not disrupted its bullish configuration. 12/23/08-Tue-Same as yesterday. 12/24/08-Wed-Force Vector remains above Vector Pressure, minimizing severity of bearish threat. 12/26/08-Fri-Retaining bullish configurations. Although not solid, it is positioned to offer bearish resistance.

NASDAQ100

12/22/08-Mon-Same as NASDAQ. 12/23/08-Tue-Same as NASDAQ. 12/24/08-Wed-Same as NASDAQ. 12/26/08-Fri-12/26/08-Fri-Same as NASDAQ, except Force Vector fell below Vector Pressure offering a configuration that sometimes incites a bullish response.

S&P500

12/22/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/23/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/24/08-Wed-Force Vector fell below Vector Pressure threatening the latter’s bullish rise. However, Force Vector did not fall into bearish domains, like the DJIA’s, but getting close to doing so. 12/26/08-Fri-Same as Dow Composites.

S&P100

12/22/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/23/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/24/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 12/26/08-Fri-Same as Dow Composites.

S&P400

12/22/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/23/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/24/08-Wed-Force Vector fell into neutrality today, but well above bullishly sloping Vector Pressure and therefore with solid near-term bullish configurations. 12/26/08-Fri-Bullish Blue Curve maintaining degree of robustness. Force Vector cycle is in neutral zone. Although not configuring strongly for the bull, it is more so configured non-bearishly.

S&P600

12/22/08-Mon-This is the strongest bullish configuration of the major indices. It is a solid Near-term Bull with all near-term attributes fostering a bullish cycle. 12/23/08-Tue-Today’s mild bearishness did nothing to threaten the young Near-term Bull. 12/24/08-Wed-All attributes are solidly bullish. 12/26/08-Fri-All attributes remain configured in support of the bull.

NYSE

12/22/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/23/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/24/08-Wed-Force Vector fell from bullish domains, but Near-term configurations remain with bullish bias. 12/26/08-Fri-Same as Dow Composites.

VIX

12/22/08-Mon-The Near-term Bear continues, which favors a bullish stock market on a near-term basis. 12/23/08-Tue-Same as yesterday. 12/24/08-Wed-Force Vectors are near minimum values, which suggests increased non-bearish potential. That threatens the overall market’s Near-term Bull bias, but several of the major indices remain with solid Near-term bullish configurations. 12/26/08-Fri-Remains configured with Near-term bearishness but mature Force Vector cycle not supportive of robustness in either direction, as its bearish cycle is mature.

Overall Comment Regarding Major Indices: 12/22/08-Mon-Today’s bearish behavior did not discourage the newly forming near-term bull cycle. Keep in mind this cycle is most likely a short-term bullish spurt. 12/23/08-Tue-Meandering behavior suggests the bear remains tired. 12/24/08-Wed-Although the Near-term Bull is weakening, it is not configuring with near-term expiration with the exception of the Dow Utilities. 12/26/08-Fri-Mixed configurations with increasing non-bullish support suggests meandering behavior would not be out of order. Strong bearish behavior in the next few days would generate expiration to the Near-term Bull. The S&P600 continues displaying resistant configurations to bearish ambition.

The Near-term Indicant signaled bull for the 11-major indices an average of 27.8-days ago. They are down by an average of 1.5% since their bull signals.

The Short-term Indicant signaled bull on Friday, November 28 for both the NYSE and NASDAQ as Force Vectors and other configurations shifted into bullish support on a near-term basis. This bull signal stands, even with recent bearish behavior. They are down 4.1% and 0.7%, respectively, since the November 28, 2008 bull signal.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

The Near-term Indicant signaled bull for the 11-major indices an average of 27.8-days ago. They are down by an average of 1.5% since their bull signals.

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators are somewhat mixed with near-term bullish support. The bullish days are being accompanied with more volume than the bearish days. Correlative data is less meaningful due to light holiday volume. Volume has been excessively light the past two days due to holiday distractions and partial day trading.

As stated on Wednesday, December 3, you should notice the NYSE and NASDAQ are very close to the minimum point in early 2003. That should be a technical stop gap to the bearish onslaught on a Short-term basis. The probability of a bullish spurt remains high. Most attributes are supporting bullish spurt behavior on a near-term basis.

You should also notice the indices are approaching their bullish red curves. It is unlikely economic conditions warrant Red Bull configurations. Be cautious of bearish responses to interactions with bullish red curves noted on the Indicant Volume Indicator charts.

Short-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. There are 17-ETF’s with hold signals. They are up by an average of 0.4% since their buy signals 3.9-weeks ago, annualizing at 5.0%. The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 14-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 37.5% since their sell signals an average of 18.3-weeks ago.

As you have noticed, the Quick-term Indicant is synchronized to the Short-term and Consolidated models. The performance of all three models is the same. The latter two models will be replaced by the Near-term Indicant early next week. This will prevent you from having to view multiple charts as the Near-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant will be on the same charts in the same format as the major indices.

The consolidation of the Near-term and Quick-term Indicants will be referred to as the Short-term Indicant even though the Near-term and Quick-term Indicants will have their own performance metrics. This is a good time to do this since the Near-term Indicant’s performance is tracking very close to that of the older models. The idea here is to provide greater anticipatory clarity for you.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant - Dec 22, 2008-Mon-Continue holding those “conservative” buys from a few weeks ago. Although the baby “near-term” bull remains vulnerable and gasping somewhat, it remains configured as a near-term bull. Dec 23, 2008-Tue-The baby bull weakened today, but remains in tact. Configurations are suggesting bullish expiration within days or a bullish surge. Status quo of bullish bias is in jeopardy. Consider tightening stop losses in the event this baby bull expires. December 26, 2008-Fri-The Near-term Indicant Bull is encountering bearish resistance, but too many of the ETF’s and major indices are not configuring with bearish support. Although without complete bearish support there is little bullish support at this time. The only attribute offering near-term bullishness are the mature Force Vector cycles. If they reverse, the bull will gain momentum. If they do not, the bear will resume dominance.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Click the above heading to view the charts.

Twenty-eight of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by 18.8%. This remains bearish, but weakening in bearish support.

One of the 30-ETF’s is above its bullish red curve. This is non-bullish. All thirty ETF average positions are below bullish red by an average of 18.6%. which is also non-bullish on a Quick-term basis.

The QTI differential is bearish by 37.4%. This is the one-hundred and thirtieth consecutive trading day of a Quick-term bearish reading.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

This is the last week these updates. They are so extremely bearish and have been as such since last summer. They are losing value. These metric served their purpose of defining bull/bear cycles, but the future of the stock market will require more precise near-term observations, as bull cycles will be dampened by increasing socialism. During the next few months similar metrics will be developed with the Near-term Indicant data as the major indices approach their bearish yellow curves.

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines.

The average distance from breakout contact is 41.4%. Double digit variances from breakout contact for 246-consecutive trading-days has been non-bullish.

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. This is the twenty-fourth consecutive trading day without bearish contact, which supports the idea of a tiring bear. However, the bear is nowhere near expiring on a trend basis.

The average distance between the price and breakdown is 18.2%, which is significantly better than the 0.8% differential on Nov 20, 2008. After providing non-bearish support since March 2003 with double digit readings, this has been a single digit expression (bearish) in 65 of the last 126-trading days. Single digit reading facilitates the bear’s roaming at will. Non-single digit values the past several days should provide the new near-term bull encouragement. Unfortunately, that interest is being threatened.

The breakout/breakdown differential is bearish by 23.1%. This attribute continues supporting bearish ambition on a Quick-term basis, but a bullish spurt remains with potential.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

Eight Force Vectors are in bullish domains. This no longer remains with majority support for bullish ambition on a near-term basis. This is a severe drop from last Tuesday and contributed to a high number of put option buy signals on that day.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There no option buy signals after Thursday’s market close. The desired bull/bear cycles were not supportive of recent put option buy signals. There was not enough magnitude for deeply discounted buy offers to be accepted.

Only two of the thirty ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. This is minority support for the bull and majority support for the bear. This is retaining bearish configurations. Configurations continue suggesting decreasing bearish support.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The bearish bias originating on September 5, 2008 expired on November 4 and replaced with a new bullish bias. That bullish bias has expired as the bullish spurt perished shortly after its origination. However, on November 28, 2008, a new bullish bias configured. This bias remains.

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. It is excluded from overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This exclusion is required for convergent/divergent monitoring.

The Indicant signaled sell for QID on November 21, 2008. It is down 33.7% since then. Its Red Bull status has succumbed to stock market bullish bias last week. Its Vector Pressure is nearing bearish domains.

Other Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources - This ETF is down 39.5% since the Quick-term Indicant sell signal on July 24, 2008. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until Vector Pressure is positive and Yellow Bear expires.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals received a buy signal on Nov 28, 2008. It is up 3.9% since then. It recently crossed above bearish yellow, fell below, and now back above. It had been holding well, but it did not find comfort as a Red Bull last Wednesday. It succumbed to related pressure and fell back into neutrality. Vector Pressure remains inside bullish domains, which is supportive of bullish aspirations.

ETF#14-Long Government is up 21.8% since its buy signal on Nov 19, 2008. This ETF is uncharacteristically bullish with significant bullish explosiveness. It will most likely gravitate south of Bullish Red curve and sometimes in January resume its bullish behavior. We’re going to hold unless it becomes a Yellow Bear. This is now easy to do as bearish yellow curve is rapidly rising to the north.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Short-term Indicant for Tangential Analysis

Divergence versus Convergence

Bearish convergence occurred last week, following bearish divergence in the prior week. Energy was again bearish last week along with several other sectors. That suggests an increasing interest in projecting sour economic conditions in the months ahead. Two more weeks of this divergent/convergent pattern will stimulate more bearish behavior. The Near-term Indicant is suggesting resistance to bearish ambition, but weakening in that resistance.

Indicant Conclusion

There were again no Mid-term Indicant buy signals for Mutual Funds. All 100-mutual funds are with avoid signals. Although the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models holding several of the ETF’s tracked, the Mid-term Indicant will not signal buy for most of the Mutual Funds until they remove themselves from bearish domains. Current configurations suggest it could a year or longer for that to occur.

As stated the past seven weeks, interest rates are falling, which is bullish. Oil prices are declining. Those two elements, alone, are typically enough to stimulate bullish activity. Trader behavior should ignite a “near-term” bullish spurt cycle, even in the face of sour economic outlooks. That bullish potential weakened this past week.

Deflation is an increasing concern. If it manifests, a 2500 Dow by 2010/11 may be optimistic. Even with that threat, a bullish spurt has been attempting to configure for the past couple of weeks. The near-term cycle is having difficulty gaining bullish traction, but it has not yet succumbed to the bear.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

12/28/08

December 21, 2008 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 12, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

This Week’s Report

Socialism Increases

When one makes a riskless decision, it will be a poor one. When involving money, politicians never have to make a decision with risk. Loaning billions to Chrysler and General Motors for lame duck politicians is completely void of risks. Therefore, it is a poor one.

Some politicians worry about their legacies and with that there is a perception of risk. However, there is no financial risk. Historians will include their personal biasness into their writing of history books. With that, the result of worrying about personal legacies is nonsensical. Besides the public educational institutions are incapable of teaching youngsters history even if the historians were completely objective and accurate in their assessments of the dead politicians.

General Motors and Chrysler are failed organizations. Many pundits write and talk about the reasons why. Most do not know why GM and Chrysler are failed organizations.

If Leroy and Elroy both buy a machine tool and put it in their respective garages for some industrial purpose, one of them will make more profit than the other. That is because one will employ management techniques that is superior to the other even though both machines will have motors turning at 3200rpm.

Ray Kroc of McDonalds fame had thousands of competitors when he started his company. He became a billionaire because he adopted different management techniques from that of the other thousands or so organizations who made hamburgers.

Michael Dell was not the only computer manufacturer when he started Dell Computer. There were hundreds of others, including IBM, which is one of the DOW30 stocks. Dell obliterated IBM and others by employing different management techniques.

Toyota employed different management techniques than used by General Motors or Chrysler. That is why Toyota took market share from the U.S. automakers.

It is not always about technique. Sometimes it is just as simple as work ethic. That is the case with General Motors and Chrysler. Much of this was documented in credible publications in the 1980’s when H. Ross Perot worked for General Motors. Perot complained about how executives spent a large portion of the day in the executive dining room rather than doing real work. Additional documentation regarding reasons for Detroit’s failure is in a book entitled The End of Detroit.

Any problem that goes unrecognized will fester and each day the problem is ignored will result in its worsening. The “bailout loan” to General Motors and Chrysler will allow the problem to fester.

Many blame the UAW. Unions are a problem, but not the problem. They were established at the same time as communism and employ the same fundamentals as communism. There are more union members than management members. Politicians by default will placate union members by the simple fact that is where the most votes can be garnished. Politicians, in a democracy, will always do this, regardless of what is right and what is wrong with the confrontation between management and unions. That is one more example of tyranny by the majority.

Even though unions are a problem, the UAW is not the only problem. Shop workers for the most part are good people. Dilettante management is a much bigger problem than the unions. Not only did they express poor work ethics, they never understood specific and superior techniques employed by their Japanese competitors.

Southern politicians are arguing the U.S. Automakers must negotiate wage rates on par with the transplant automakers. They are as stupid as the northern political counterparts arguing for immediate billions of bailout loans.

It is unlikely that you will hear pundits speaking of Frederick W. Taylor. He was the one who developed methods that yielded high wages and low costs. The Japanese labor cost per hour was a bit higher than U.S. labor costs in the 1970’s. That is because the availability of labor in Japan was less than in the U.S. and exchange rate manipulations. During the 1970’s, the Japanese produced automobiles in Japan, transport it by rail to the ship yards, and boat it across the Pacific at less cost than the overpaid dilettante management teams in the U.S. Who did the Japanese study in the 1970’s? According to Shigeo Shingo, several of Frederick W. Taylor methods were employed by the Japanese automakers and other good companies in Japan. Ask a young graduate industrial engineer from the Midwest US, who is Frederick W. Taylor? Many do not know.

Some pundits argue that the U.S. automakers model line-up is poor. That is nonsensical. The U.S. automakers are actually pretty good at “listening to the consumer” regarding models. The problem is the quality of the product. The U.S. automakers have been playing catch-up for over thirty years. They have not caught up and will never catch up with their current management teams. Production quality is a science; a hard science and no one in Washington DC understands that. And unfortunately, most North American automobile executives understand it.

So, those (politicians) who created the “economic shock and awe” are going to help the victims of their policies of stupidity. Although the North American automotive executives are incompetent, their companies could have survived a few more years without “political social engineering.” There are no Thomas Jefferson’s or George Washington’s in Washington D.C. Those early politicians were engaged in industrial activities and politicians on a part-time basis. Today, politicians are full time and have no direct interaction with “reality.” So, with their liberal arts and legal backgrounds they engage in areas of the economy they do not understand and could never understand.

The socialization of automobile companies will result in deterioration of product quality. In 1987, the late Shigeo Shingo, who was one of the architects of the infamous Toyota Production System, made the following statement. “The wheels wobble when coming out of the finishing department in Russia. In France, it is not much better. The U.S. has the best political system in the world for the production of outstanding and reliable products.” He added “the only missing element in the U.S. was management technique.” Yes, it is a matter of time before the wheels wobble. That will be the result of the efforts of politicians, unions, and more importantly dilettante management.

Shingo spoke of the Germans a bit differently. Although their political system is not friendly to extreme capitalism, they have a knack for the engineering sciences. That is why they have outstanding product, but for the most part, somewhat expensive. Shingo added the Japanese political system was not friendly to capitalistic production. He said there were only a handful of good companies in Japan. The other ten thousand should be avoided for investment purposes. The handful of excellent companies worked hard employing and improving on the foundations of Frederick W. Taylor and Frank and Lillian Gilbreth. The North American automakers talk and act more like bankers than producers. We have seen how stupid bankers are.

It will not matter if the North American automobile is powered by nuclear fusion, battery, or solar panels. The wheels will wobble. It is strongly recommended that you buy your daughters foreign made automobiles so they will be safe.

As socialism increases, product quality will deteriorate. Like all of those shoddy products being delivered by Communists China, rest assured that shoddiness will accelerate in America. American and Canadian made automobiles have been shoddy for years. That is not because of unions. It is because of management technique and work ethic.

Socialism will dampen enthusiasm to those with a better idea. In other words everyone will start the slow process of gravitating to the lowest performer in their respective areas of interest. All communism and socialism do is reduce all humanity to the lowest level of their community peers. 99% of all Russians lived in poverty after three generations; just like the scumbags before the start of communism. The 1% governmental leaders lived like kings; just as Pelosi flies around in a military jets while the populace’s quality of life is rapidly deteriorating as a direct result of her and her peer’s efforts.

Bull cycles will be dampened by socialism. Bear cycles may not have more magnitude, but will certainly have more breadth. This bear could last for twenty or more years.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated two buy signals and no sell signals. There have been 518-sell signals since October 26, 2007 and 29-buy signals since October 31, 2008.

In addition to the two buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for only 31 of the 344-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 60.4%. That annualizes to 73.2%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 31-stocks and funds for an average of 42.9-weeks.

Although there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 311-stocks and funds of the 344- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 35.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 30.7-weeks ago.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding all Mutual Funds. All one-hundred funds are down an average of 33.0% since their sell signals an average of 27.2-weeks ago. Even though a bullish spurt is possible, the Mid-term Indicant will be more conservative before signaling buy for these funds. Bearish yellow must be toppled first.

One year ago, on Dec 21, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 226-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 134.0-weeks. They were up by an average of 158.2% (annualized at 61.4%). There were 100-avoided stocks and funds at that time. Those avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 12.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 17.8-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 312-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Dec 22, 2006. They were up by an average of 103.9% (annualized at 62.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 87.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 30-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 12.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 20.1-weeks earlier.

There were 269-stocks and funds with hold signals on Dec 23, 2005 since their buy signals an average of 84.6-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 97.4% (annualized at 59.9%). There were 49-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 15.0% from their respective sell signals an average of 26.6-weeks earlier.

On Dec 17, 2004, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 300-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 70.8% (annualized at 65.3%) since their buy signals an average of 56.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 16-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 40.2% since their sell signals an average of 58.0-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Dec 20, 2003, there were 277-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 55.4% (annualized at 83.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 34.7-weeks earlier. There were 10-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 26.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 36.6-weeks earlier.

On Dec 21, 2002, there were 275-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 16.0%, annualizing at 67.3%. There were ten avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 27.5% since their sell signals an average of 22.7-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

All updated information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Click the following link that will take you to the tangential protection charts.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 17.7% since its secular low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 40.4% and the S&P500 is up 14.3% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 52.6%.

The Dow is down 39.4% since its last closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 45.3% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600 is down 41.5% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007.

The NASDAQ is down 69.0% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 41.9% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 26.8% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

The Dow is down 35.3% so far this year. The NASDAQ is down 41.0% this year. These conditions are incongruent with historical standards. This year should be bullish, based on those standards. The stock market occasionally delights in violating historical standards. This always happens when such standards gain in popularity. As stated for several years now, the phenomenon of commonality disallows stock market victories by the masses.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 19.7% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%. This year had been configuring with 2001 similarity, but there is a mild chance historical standards (bullish) may be developing. Unfortunately, there are only a few days left this year and the variance to historical standards will be significant. Keep in mind, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality is now technically available to foster a Quick-term bullish cycle. It has a very short time before the technical period expires for this bullish potential.

The NASDAQ was down by 30.6% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 46.1%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 6.6%. It was up by 2.2% in 2005. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. In 2006, it was up 10.2% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain. It was up by 7.7% at this time last year and finished 2007 up by 9.8%. As previously stated, the NASDAQ is down 41.0% this year.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% due to increasing bullish influences for the longer-term holdings. The Mid-term Indicant will be passive in generating buy signals even with the support of a Quick-term bull cycle. The longer-term attributes remain configured in support of the bear.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

As stated last week, interest rates continue nose-diving. That could be an understatement. They are crashing. And even that could be an understatement. The Fed has left no wiggle room. If the economy does not improve quickly, the bags of policy tricks are few. The economy always runs on its own merits, but policy makers and politicians worsen what is already bad. The only policy they can incorporate is undoing their prior damage.

Gold continues rebounding last week while other commodities continue their free fall. The CRB Bridge Futures Index is extremely distraught and foretells of deflationary threats. As stated last week, “between now and then, economic stability should not be surprising. Once that occurs, this will be reassessed. Gold’s market prices is, as usual, a psychological issue with people around the world. However, the severity of that psychological problem is miniscule when compared to politicians who continue eroding the value of paper currencies.”

The U.S. dollar remains strong as the U.S. economy is perceived to have the greatest chance of returning to robustness when compared to other countries.

As stated eight weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with some gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental.

As stated six weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.”

As stated three weeks ago, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near expiration. Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from time to time, but the trend should remain bearish.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 42.0% since that sell signal. It endured harsh bearishness last week.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is down 22.9% since the Midterm Indicant signaled sell on August 1, 2008.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 141.2% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 25.0% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 45.0% since that sell signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 55.7% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 27.7% since that sell signal.

Energy related funds were aggressively bearish last week, following bullish aggression in the prior week. They have endured significant bearishness in 14 of the last 19-weeks.

The SQI signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on August 4, 2008. It is down 28.9% since that sell signal. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the August 4, 2008 sell signal. This fund has been bearish in 28 of the past 47-weeks and in 20 of the past 27-weeks. This ETF remains configured for bearishness on a Short-term basis, but could be challenged in the event it climbs above bearish yellow.

The SQI (Consolidated Short-term and Quick-term Indicant) model signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on November 28, 2008 (last Friday). It is up 11.3% since that buy signal. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 26.0%. Although this fund on a short-term basis is bullish, it is not yet solidly bullish. It is having trouble finding comfort above the Red Bull curve.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no bear signals.

The ten major indices are down by an average of 0.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull for all ten indices on November 28, 2008.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $30,453,060

That beats buy and hold performance of $1,305,205 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $145,336. That beats buy and hold’s $86,970 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $190,356. That beats buy and hold’s $54,241 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 2,233.2%, 67.1%, and 250.9%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy for ProFunds Ultra Short on September 12, 2008 and it signaled sell on October 31, 2008. It was up over 30% since that September buy signal. It remains too risky to hold for the time being. Once the heart and soul of bullish seasonality expires, this fund will receive a buy signal; most likely in January 2009. It is up 2.4% since the October 31, 2008 sell signal. This fund is volatile and too risky to buy at this time. Four weeks ago, it was up 54.5% since that sell signal. As you can see, it plummeted since then and expected to continue to do so.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Always remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 196.4% (annualized at 11.4%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 994-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: One of thirty, but it is contrarian and the only Quick-term Red Bull.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twenty-eight of thirty. Still supporting bearish behavior, but somewhat encouraging for those desiring bullish behavior.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is bearish 34.1%; still with strong bearish support, but weakening. This suggests bearish trend remains strong, but a near-term bullish cycle remains in tact but slightly losing momentum.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential is bearish 18.0%; this remains solidly in support of the bear, but weakened in that support the past several trading days and continues to weaken. Bullish spurt potential remains in tact, but weakened the past few days..

Short-term Indicant: Breakdown contact density has not occurred in the last 20-trading days. The bear is obviously relaxing. As stated last week, bearish fatigue would not be surprising for the next few weeks.

Short-term Indicant: Mixed: Near-term bullish bias, but still with Quick-term bearish cycle.

Force Vectors: Twenty-seven are in bullish domains. Majority support for the bull should provide the baby near-term bull encouragement to mature. Force Vectors are holding up well against bearish expressions, but a few other near-term bullish attributes are getting lazy.

STI Tangential Support: None; therefore, bearish. Reverse tangential constructions offer high probability the bear will respond violently to any bullish spurt that may form. Such a response would not be surprising before year end. (This has been changed in timing from presidential inauguration, but may shift this expectation back to late January). Either way, this bear is nowhere near extinction. It will be long lasting and deep! But for traders, there is some excitement in the attempt to participate in bullish spurts from time to time. For longer-term investors, cash is king until the ETF’s and major indices topple bearish yellow.

Reverse Tangential Support: Being constructed, fostering a very high probability of bearish sustainability. However, there is again some potential for a bullish spurt.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bearish and will remain so with the high number of Yellow Bears.

Current Near-term Bias: Bullish bias born on Friday, November 28, 2008.

Overall Market Status: Near-term configurations support bullish bias, while the Quick-term Indicant remains encumbered with Yellow Bears.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Enhanced as volatility is significant and expected.

Volume: Although there is a mild bullish bias, other attributes are increasingly supporting a near-term bullish bias.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

To view the STI-Tangential Protection for ten major indices, click here.

DJIA

12/12/08-Fri-Today’s mild bearishness suggest this bullish spurt will hold. All attributes support near-term bullish bias. 12/15/08-Mon-Mild bearishness did nothing to suggest the Near-term Indicant bull is about to expire. Force Vectors remain in bullish domains. 12/16/08-Tue-Force Vectors are holding strongly in bullish domains. Vector Pressure continues to rise. This spurt is revealing some bullish character. 12/17/08-Wed-Today’s mild bearishness did not adversely impact bullish bias. All attributes remain unchanged from yesterday. 12/18/08-Thu- Although Force Vectors continue supporting bull, the Blue Bull Curve is relaxing. Solid bullish cycles typically avoid that attribute during their early phases. Other attributes, however, remain in support of the underlying bullish spurt. 12/19/08-Fri-Same as yesterday.

DJ Composites

12/12/08-Fri-Same as DJIA. 12/15/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/16/08-Tue-Same as DJIA, except Force Vector is threatening to drop into bearish domains. On the other hand, it is also configuring in support of dynamic bullish behavior. 12/17/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 12/18/08-Thu-Same as DJIA. 12/19/08-Fri-Same as yesterday.

DJ Transports

12/12/08-Fri-The bullish spurt for this index is being challenged. Notice the bear’s aggression. Also, notice Force Vectors are hovering just above bearish N on the bottom of the chart. The bullish blue curve has not collapsed, but under pressure to do so. 12/15/08-Mon-This index is qualifying as a Near-term Bear, but the lack of support for that from the other indices suggests a patient continuation of near-term bullishness. Although Force Vector cycle is in bearish domains, the cycle is mature and rising Vector Pressure is another reason for a bit of added patience. 12/16/08-Tue-The transports responded bullishly but without the support of Force Vectors. Configurations suggests more bullishness on a near-term basis. 12/17/08-Wed-Transports rebounded to excessive bearishness a few days ago. However, Force Vector behavior is supporting bear and Vector Pressure is again moving bearishly. Regardless though, the bullish bias prevails for the time being. 12/18/08-Thu-Vector Pressure is trying to escape bearish domains. Force Vectors are supporting that escape but in precarious position to do so. Bullish blue curve is also weakening, but not yet collapsed. 12/19/08-Fri-Same as yesterday.

DJ Utilities

12/12/08-Fri-Same as DJIA, but still expressing timidity below bullish blue curve. Force Vector is also hovering barely above bearish N on the bottom of the chart, which is a bit disturbing. However, the overall configuration suggests a continuation of near-term bullishness. 12/15/08-Mon-12/15/08-Mon-Same as DJIA, except frozen in a very tight trading range. Force Vector and Vector Pressure continue rising in support of near-term bullishness. 12/16/08-Tue-Force Vectors moved into bullish domains and this index is again approaching bullish blue curve, which suggests the bullish spurt remains well within the designed bullish spurt behavior. 12/17/08-Wed-Bullish blue collapsed today. As you can see, the utilities lack exuberance in either direction. Force Vector and Vector Pressure remain configured in support of the bull in spite of bullish blue’s collapse today. 12/18/08-Thu-Although most of the major indices were bearish today, utilities were not. Money rotated into utilities on today’s bearishness, which suggests utilities are considered safe with cyclical behavior supporting the bull. 12/19/08-Fri-Same as yesterday.

NASDAQ

12/12/08-Fri-This is the most solid bullish configuration. All attributes strongly favor bullish spurt continuation. 12/15/08-Mon-Same as DJIA, but a bit stronger in support of near-term bullishness. 12/16/08-Tue-Same as DJIA with extraordinarily bullishly configured Force Vectors. Notice index is above bullish blue curve. 12/17/08-Wed-Remains strongly configured in support of the bull. 12/18/08-Thu-Solid bull continues without any threatening bearish attributes. 12/19/08-Fri-Same as yesterday.

NASDAQ100

12/12/08-Fri-Same as NASDAQ. 12/15/08-Mon-Same as NASDAQ. 12/16/08-Tue-Same as NASDAQ. 12/17/08-Wed-Same as NASDAQ. 12/18/08-Thu-Same as NASDAQ. 12/19/08-Fri-Same as yesterday.

S&P500

12/12/08-Fri-Same as DJIA. 12/15/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/16/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/17/08-Wed-Same as NASDAQ, which is bullishly stronger than yesterday’s similarity to the DJIA. 12/18/08-Thu-Same as DJIA. 12/19/08-Fri-Same as yesterday.

S&P100

12/12/08-Fri-Same as DJIA. 12/15/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/16/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/17/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 12/18/08-Thu-Same as DJIA. 12/19/08-Fri-Same as yesterday.

S&P400

12/12/08-Fri-Same as DJIA. 12/15/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/16/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/17/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 12/18/08-Thu-Same as DJIA. 12/19/08-Fri-Same as yesterday.

S&P600

12/12/08-Fri-Same as NASDAQ; very strong bullish spurt support on a near-term basis. 12/15/08-Mon-Same as NASDAQ. 12/16/08-Tue-Same as NASDAQ. 12/17/08-Wed-Same as NASDAQ. 12/18/08-Thu-Same as NASDAQ. 12/19/08-Fri-Same as yesterday.

NYSE

12/12/08-Fri-Same as Dow. 12/15/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/16/08-Tue-Same as NASDAQ. It is bullish significant on a near-term basis this particular broader index is strongly configured with bullish support. 12/17/08-Wed-Same as NASDAQ. 12/18/08-Thu-Same as DJIA. 12/19/08-Fri-Same as yesterday.

VIX

12/12/08-Fri-No longer a Blue Bull or a Red Bull. Force Vector continues moving bearishly, which favors stock market bullishness. 12/15/08-Mon-Same as last Friday. 12/16/08-Tue-Bullish blue collapsed for the first time since early last August. Although not yet a Near-term Bear, it is getting close to succumbing to bearish influences, which is bullish for the stock market. 12/17/08-Wed-VIX received a Near-term Bear signal today because of the collapsed bullish blue curve and bearishly positioned Force Vector. This is bullish for the stock market. 12/18/08-Thu-In spite of today’s stock market bearishness, this index remains with its recent near-term bear signal, which is bullish for the stock market. 12/19/08-Fri-Same as yesterday.

Overall Comment Regarding Major Indices: 12/12/08-Fri-Today’s bullishness, although mild, supports a continuation of the bullish spurt now underway. 12/15/08-Mon-Today’s mild bearishness is irrelevant and did nothing to change the near-term bullish outlook. 12/16/08-Tue-The Near-term Bull is increasing in solidarity and support for additional longevity of this bull. 12/17/08-Wed-Near-term Bull remains in tact. 12/18/08-Thu-Same as yesterday. Today’s bearish behavior had no impact on the Near-term bull cycle now underway. 12/19/08-Fri-Today’s mixed/flat behavior did not upset the young near-term bull. Pretty much the same as most of this week.

The Short-term Indicant signaled bull on Friday, November 28 for both the NYSE and NASDAQ as Force Vectors and other configurations shifted into bullish support on a near-term basis. This bull signal stands, even with recent bearish behavior. They are down 2.9% and up by 1.9%, respectively, since the November 28, 2008 bull signal.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators are somewhat mixed with near-term bullish support. The bullish days are being accompanied with more volume than the bearish days. Correlative data is becoming less meaningful due to light holiday volume. However, volume most of this week was steady on mixed market behavior.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. There are 17-ETF’s with hold signals. They are up by an average of 2.7% since their buy signals 3.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 43.6%. The SQI is avoiding 14-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 33.5% since their sell signals an average of 20.1-weeks ago.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. There are 17-ETF’s enjoying a hold signal. They are up by an average of 2.7% since their buy signals 3.2-weeks ago. There are 14-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 33.6% since their sell signals an average of 20.2-weeks ago.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. There are 17-ETF’s with hold signals. They are up by an average of 2.7% since their buy signals 3.2-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 14-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 34.6% since their sell signals an average of 17.6-weeks ago.

Current Strategy-Quick-term Indicant - Dec 12, 2008-Fri-Continue holding those “conservative” buys from a few weeks ago. Dec 15, 2008-Mon-Same as last Friday. Major attributes continue supporting near-term bull, but magnitude should be shallow and thus the reason for conservatism. Dec 16, 2008-Tue-Same as prior two days. Dec 18, 2008-There are no changes from prior comments. Dec 19, 2008-Fri-No changes from prior comments.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Click the above heading to view the charts.

Twenty-eight of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by 16.9%. This remains bearish, but weakening in bearish support.

One of the 30-ETF’s is above its bullish red curve. This is non-bullish. All thirty ETF average positions are below bullish red by an average of 17.2%. which is also non-bullish, on a Quick-term basis.

The QTI differential is bearish by 34.1%. This is the one-hundred and twenty-sixth consecutive trading day of a Quick-term bearish reading.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

One of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. Contrarian ETF#14, TLT, remains in contact with its breakout line. There will be more about this ETF later in this report.

The average distance from breakout contact is 40.1%. Double digit variances from breakout contact for 242-consecutive trading-days has been non-bullish.

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. This is the twentieth consecutive trading day without bearish contact, which supports the idea of a tiring bear. However, the bear is nowhere near expiring on a trend basis.

The average distance between the price and breakdown is 22.0%, which is significantly better than the 0.8% differential on Nov 20, 2008. After providing non-bearish support since March 2003 with double digit readings, this has been a single digit expression (bearish) in 65 of the last 122-trading days. Single digit reading facilitates the bear’s roaming at will. Non-single digit values the past several days should provide the new bull encouragement.

The breakout/breakdown differential is bearish by 22.0%. This attribute continues supporting bearish ambition on a Quick-term basis, but a bullish spurt remains with potential.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

Twenty-seven Force Vectors are in bullish domains. This remains with majority support for bullish ambition on a near-term basis.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were two put option buy signals after Friday’s market close. Last Monday’s put options enjoyed to perfect series of configurations with Tuesday bullishness, followed by bearish behavior on Wednesday and Thursday. Last Thursday’s bearish aggression facilitated nice profit.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Indicant signaled sell for QID on November 21, 2008. It is down 26.6% since then. Its Red Bull status has succumbed to the recent stock market bullish bias.

Other Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources - This ETF is down 37.5% since the Quick-term Indicant sell signal on July 24, 2008. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until Vector Pressure is positive and Yellow Bear expires.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals received a buy signal on Nov 28, 2008. It is up 2.9% since then. It recently crossed above bearish yellow, fell below, and now back above. It had been holding well, but it did not find comfort as a Red Bull this past Wednesday. It succumbed to related pressure and fell back into neutrality. Vector Pressure remains inside bullish domains, which is supportive of bullish aspirations.

ETF#14-Long Government is up 23.1% since its buy signal on Nov 19, 2008. This ETF is uncharacteristically bullish and with significant bullish explosiveness. It will most likely gravitate south of Bullish Red curve and sometimes in January resume its bullish behavior. We’re going to hold unless it becomes a Yellow Bear. This is now easy to do as bearish yellow curve is rapidly rising to the north.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Short-term Indicant for Tangential Analysis

Divergence versus Convergence

Bearish divergence occurred last week. Energy was significantly bearish, while general equities were mixed. It was a ho-hum week in the face of triple witching last Friday. That suggests stability while simultaneously yielding a shortage of bullish or bearish ambition.

Indicant Conclusion

Deflation is an increasing concern. If it manifests, a 2500 Dow by 2010/11 may be optimistic. Even with that threat, a bullish spurt has been attempting to configure for the past couple of weeks. This bullish cycle is having difficulty gaining bullish traction, it has not yet succumbed to the bear.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

12/21/08

December 14, 2008 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 12, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

This Week’s Report

Near-term Bullish Cycle and Quick-term Bearish Cycle

Click this sentence to get you to the DJIA chart. As you can see from the bearish yellow curve, the Dow has been a yellow bear for several months. The bearish yellow curve shifted to the south earlier this year. During that time, it enjoyed two bullish spurts. Unfortunately, neither spurt enjoyed longevity. As you know, the bear continued its dominance.

Looking at the white lines on the chart, you can see the Dow’s up and downs from day to day were mild when comparing to the last few weeks. In the lower right hand corner of the chart, you will notice significant activity with some notable up and down movements. That is volatility.

Volatility increased significantly beginning in early November. That means nothing, other than some head fakes by the major indices. As you can see, near-term bull signal #07 was quickly followed by near-term bear signal #08. Bull signal #07 was triggered when the Dow increased above its near-term bullish blue curve. Although Force Vector was at an obvious peak with that, the near-term model always signals bull when crossing above the near-term bull curve. It must do that to catch 100% of all bullish spurts.

The tour explaining the near-term cycles is about complete. As many of you know, the Indicant has identified and discussed bullish and bearish spurts for several years. However, there was no formal identification of them; just verbiage. Bullish and bearish spurts can manifest into a continuation of their originating configuration or expire. The near-term model will now formally identify spurts and their longevity.

The Quick-term Indicant remains the same and the only requirement is a bit of discipline. That is to never buy or hold under yellow bear conditions for the longer-term investor, while the trader will bias toward the Near-term Indicant. The Short-term Indicant is a compilation of the Quick-term Indicant and the Near-term Indicant. In the past, there were two charts for both. They are now being consolidated to a single chart.

Bull signal #09 was triggered with the same driving attributes as bull signal #07. As you can see, #09-Bull Cycle has now lasted for several days, which is better than #07-Bull, which perished shortly after birth. Bull signal #09 may not last too much longer, but until it expires, it is a near-term bull.

The Dow Utilities can viewed by clicking this sentence. Looking at the lower right hand corner of the chart, you will notice that Utilities a bit weaker looking than the DJIA. Scrolling up you will notice the Dow Transports as being weaker. The transports endured a violent bear attack last week. Neither Force Vector has fallen into bearish domains. Therefore, the near-term bull continues to live for both of these indices.

The NASDAQ and NASDAQ100 can be viewed by clicking this sentence. You should notice both indices are above their bullish blue curves. That suggests a strong near-term bull. The Near-term Indicant is focused on an extreme short horizon. Notice the Force Vector behavior on the bottom of the charts. Notice how it is meandering above the dotted red line on the bottom of the chart and not collapsing like it did in early November. This is a major attribute observation suggesting the survival of this bullish spurt for more than just a few days.

However, the market is always going to be what it is and not what we want it to be. If Force Vectors fall into bearish domains and bullish blue curve collapses, the bullish spurt will expire and be replaced by another bearish cycle. Day to day volatility is difficult to gauge. It is the cycle that helps one gain or lose wealth. This current near-term cycle remains bullish.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated two buy signals and no sell signals. There have been 518-sell signals since October 26, 2007 and 27-buy signals since October 31, 2008.

In addition to the two buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for only 29 of the 344-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 64.9%. That annualizes to 75.8%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 29-stocks and funds for an average of 44.5-weeks.

Although there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 313-stocks and funds of the 344- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 35.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 29.6-weeks ago.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding all Mutual Funds. All one-hundred funds are down an average of 33.7% since their sell signals an average of 26.2-weeks ago. Even though a bullish spurt is possible, the Mid-term Indicant will be much more conservative before signaling buy for these funds. Bearish yellow must be toppled first.

One year ago, on Dec 14, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 235-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 133.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 154.3% (annualized at 60.3%). There were 109-avoided stocks and funds at that time. Those avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 9.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 16.3-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 312-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Dec 15, 2006. They were up by an average of 107.7% (annualized at 65.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 86.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 31-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 12.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 19.7-weeks earlier.

There were 270-stocks and funds with hold signals on Dec 16, 2005 since their buy signals an average of 83.5-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 98.0% (annualized at 61.0%). There were 48-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 15.8% from their respective sell signals an average of 28.3-weeks earlier.

On Dec 10, 2004, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 300-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 68.6% (annualized at 64.6%) since their buy signals an average of 55.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 17-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 43.7% since their sell signals an average of 57.3-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Dec 13, 2003, there were 279-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 53.1% (annualized at 82.6%) since their respective buy signals an average of 33.5-weeks earlier. There were 15-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 25.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 33.5-weeks earlier.

On Dec 14, 2002, there were 283-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 14.8%, annualizing at 67.4%. There were eight avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 27.3% since their sell signals an average of 23.0-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

All updated information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Click the following link that will take you to the tangential protection charts.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 18.4% since its secular low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 38.3% and the S&P500 is up 13.3% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 46.8%.

The Dow is down 39.1% since its last closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 46.1% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600 is down 43.7% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007.

The NASDAQ is down 69.5% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 42.4% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 26.4% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. (Last week’s report erroneously stated this at 36%). As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

The Dow is down 34.9% so far this year. The NASDAQ is down 41.9% this year. These conditions are incongruent with historical standards. This year should be bullish, based on those standards. The stock market occasionally delights in violating historical standards. This always happens when such standards gain in popularity. As stated for several years now, the phenomenon of commonality disallows stock market victories by the masses.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 18.6% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%. This year had been configuring with 2001 similarity, but there is a mild chance historical standards (bullish) may be developing. Keep in mind, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality is now technically available to foster a Quick-term bullish cycle. It has a very short time before the technical time frame will expire for this bullish potential.

The NASDAQ was down by 28.2% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 45.9%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 6.2%. It was up by 3.9% in 2005. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. In 2006, it was up 10.3% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain. It was up by 10.6% at this time last year and finished 2007 up by 9.8%.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

The U.S. dollar weakened last week against its strengthening cycle. Last week’s weakness did not threaten its definite cycle of strengthening and its related trend. Oil prices and the U.S. dollar are feeding off each other. As long as oil prices continue to fall, the U.S. will strengthen. However, once this recession is over, if ever, rest assured the U.S. dollar will weaken and inflation will return. There are too many “socialistic” dollars in the money flow right now. Since they are not backed with the productive effort of capitalists, the longer-term view is bleak.

Gold rebounded last week while other commodities continued their free fall. The CRB Bridge Futures Index is extremely distraught and foretells of deflationary threats. However, between now and then, economic stability should not be surprising. Once that occurs, this will be reassessed. Gold’s market prices is, as usual, a psychological issue with people around the world. However, the severity of that psychological problem is miniscule when compared to politicians who continue eroding the value of paper currencies.

Interest rates continue nose diving. Mortgage rates were especially deep to the south the past few days with the attempt to stave off the after effects of the housing bubble. With rising unemployment, this configuration should have little positive impact on housing.

As stated seven weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with some gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental.

As stated five weeks ago, probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009.

As stated five weeks ago, if taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.

As stated two weeks ago, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near expiration. Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from time to time, but the trend should remain bearish.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 34.1% since that sell signal. It enjoyed a nice bullish rebound last week.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is down 27.7% since the Midterm Indicant signaled sell on August 1, 2008. It was down over 40% just last week. A solid bullish bounce suggests the rapid decline in commodities could be subsiding.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 141.2% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 20.2% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 42.6% since that sell signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 31.5% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 25.8% since that sell signal.

Energy related funds were aggressively bullish last week. They have endured significant bearishness in 13 of the last 18-weeks. Last week’s gains were bullish by double digit magnitudes.

The SQI signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on August 4, 2008. It is down 28.3% since that sell signal. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the August 4, 2008 sell signal. This fund has been bearish in 27 of the past 46-weeks and in 19 of the past 26-weeks. This ETF remains configured for bearishness on a Short-term basis, but could be challenged in the event it climbs above bearish yellow.

The SQI (Consolidated Short-term and Quick-term Indicant) model signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on November 28, 2008 (last Friday). It is up 6.3% since that buy signal. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 26.0%. Although this fund on a short-term basis is bullish, it is not yet solidly bullish.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no bear signals.

The ten major indices are down by an average of 2.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull for all ten indices on November 28, 2008.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $30,632,567

That beats buy and hold performance of $1,312,898 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $144,002. That beats buy and hold’s $86,172 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $187,484. That beats buy and hold’s $53,423 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 2,233.2%, 67.1%, and 250.9%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy for ProFunds Ultra Short on January 18, 2008. It was up 32.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on September 15, 2006 until the buy signal on January 18, 2008. Historical norms of market cyclicality suggested the next buying opportunity for this fund should not occur until 2009. However, as you can see, the next buying opportunity occurred earlier than historical standards suggested.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy for this fund on September 12, 2008 and it signaled sell on October 31, 2008. It was up over 30% since that September buy signal. It remains too risky to hold for the time being. Once the heart and soul of bullish seasonality expires, this fund will receive a buy signal; most likely in January 2009. It is up 5.5% since the October 31, 2008 sell signal. This fund is volatile and too risky to buy at this time. Three weeks ago, it was up 54.5% since that sell signal. As you can see, it plummeted since and expected to continue to do so.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Always remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 198.1% (annualized at 11.5%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 993-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Near-term Blue Bulls: Embryonic bull remains vulnerable. All major indices are configured with near-term bullish attributes, excluding contrarian VIX. The NYSE joined bullish bias last Wednesday and we now have bullish unanimity on a Near-term Indicant basis.

Quick-term Red Bulls: One of thirty, but it is contrarian. No bullish support at this time.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twenty-eight of thirty. Still supporting bearish behavior, but somewhat encouraging for those desiring bullish behavior since this decreased by one for the first time in several months last Wednesday.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is bearish 38.9%; still with strong bearish support, but weakening. This suggests bearish trend remains strong, but a near-term bullish cycle is gaining traction.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential is bearish 20.8%; this remains solidly in support of the bear, but weakened in that support the past several trading days and continues to weaken. Bullish spurt potential remains in tact.

Short-term Indicant: Breakdown contact density has not occurred in the last 15-trading days. The bear is obviously relaxing. As stated last week, bearish fatigue would not be surprising for the next few weeks at a minimum. (Last Tuesday’s and Thursday’s bearishness did not disrupt near-term bullishness).

Short-term Indicant: Mixed: Near-term bullish bias, but still with Quick-term bearish cycle.

Force Vectors: Twenty-eight are in bullish domains. Majority support for the bull should provide the baby bull encouragement to mature. Force Vectors are holding up well against bearish expressions.

STI Tangential Support: None; therefore, bearish. Reverse tangential constructions offer high probability the bear will respond violently to any bullish spurt that may form. Such a response would not be surprising before year end. (This has been changed in timing from presidential inauguration, but may shift this expectation back to late January). Either way, this bear is nowhere near extinction. It will be long lasting and deep! But for traders, there is some excitement in the attempt to participate in bullish spurts from time to time. For longer-term investors, cash is king until the ETF’s and major indices topple bearish yellow.

Reverse Tangential Support: Being constructed, fostering a very high probability of bearish sustainability. However, there is again some potential for a bullish spurt.

Immediate Tactics: Cash is king except for two extremely conservative buy signals on Friday, November 21, 2008 and several more “conservative” Quick-term and Short-term buy signals on Friday, November 28, 2008. This recent buys are still holding. Longer-term views should avoid buying when prices are below bearish yellow curve. However, short-term interests should enjoy this bullish surge.

Current Short-term Bias: Bullish bias born on Friday, November 28, 2008.

Overall Market Status: Near-term configurations support bullish bias, while the Quick-term Indicant remains encumbered with yellow bears.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Enhanced as volatility is significant and expected.

Volume: Although there is a mild bullish bias, other attributes are increasingly supporting a near-term bullish bias.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

To view the STI-Tangential Protection for ten major indices, click here.

DJIA

12/05/08-Fri-The bullish charge is timid. Vector Pressure continues to mount a charge is very near climbing out of bearish domains. Force Vectors dipped into neutrality but that is okay and common. The Bullish Red Curve is about to cross below Bearish Yellow Curve. Although that is exceedingly bearish, it is usually a rallying point for the bull. Although the index remains below its Blue Bullish Curve, it is climbing. As long as it does not collapse, this baby bull has a good chance of providing a bullish spurt for a few weeks. 12/08/08-Mon-Force Vector bounce is food for the bull. The Near-Term bull remains in tact. Vector Pressure crossing into neutrality will act as a barrier to strong bearish reactions to the bullish bias. 12/09/08-Tue-Force Vector remained bullishly directed and in bullish domains, suggesting only a profit-taking session. Near-term bullish bias remains in tact. Force Vectors need to relax, which should invite non-bullishness on a near-term basis. The bear generally resists Vector Pressure’s elevation from bearish domains. As you can see, Vector Pressure is attempting to cross above Yellow-N into neutrality. 12/10/08-Wed-Force Vector and Vector Pressure remain supportive of Near-term Bull cycle. 12/11/08-Thu-Today’s bearish expression did not damage any of the underlying bullish attributes. As previously stated, the bear is resisting Vector Pressure’s elevation from its lowly domain. Vector Pressure is now in the neutral zone for the first time since last September. The near-term bull cycle remains in tact. 12/12/08-Fri-Today’s mild bearishness suggest this bullish spurt will hold. All attributes support near-term bullish bias.

DJ Composites

12/05/08-Fri-Same as DJIA, but as stated yesterday, Vector Pressure remains inside bearish domains. 12/08/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/09/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/10/08-Wed-Same as DJIA in addition to Vector Pressure climbing above Yellow-N line on the bottom of the chart. 12/11/08-Thu-As you can see Vector Pressure continues struggling in bearish domains, while the Force Vector remains in bullish domains. The latter resisted today’s bearish behavior, which appears to be a profit-taking session. 12/12/08-Fri-Same as DJIA.

DJ Transports

12/05/08-Fri-Same as yesterday. 12/08/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. Vector Pressure continues to lag, but this index is strengthening in its support of bullish bias. 12/09/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/10/08-Wed-Same as DJIA except Vector Pressure continues subsisting in bearish domains. 12/11/08-Thu-Same as Dow Jones Composites. 12/12/08-Fri-The bullish spurt for this index is being challenged. Notice the bear’s aggression. Also, notice Force Vectors are hovering just above bearish N on the bottom of the chart. The bullish blue curve has not collapsed, but under pressure to do so.

DJ Utilities

12/05/08-Fri-Somewhat discerning is Force Vector’s fall into bearish domains. The Blue Bullish Curve, which is a product of the Near-term Indicant continues moving north, but the baby bull finds this Force Vector behavior a bit threatening. However, Vector Pressure is more dominant and it continues residing above bearish domains. 12/08/08-Mon-This index was a bit lazy today, as a function of money rotation. Its Force Vector is threatening with bearish support, but equally configuring for a strong bullish bounce. 12/09/08-Tue-Utilities are marching to its own beat of the drums. It was the forerunner into the underlying near-term bullish bias. Its Vector Pressure has already crossed into neutrality. Its Force Vector has fallen into bullish domains, but its cycle is mature. It is possible for Utilities to enjoy bullishness while the other indices express non-bullishness on a near-term basis. 12/10/08-Wed-Same as DJIA but Near-term bullish configurations are being threatened with weak Force Vector. Vector Pressure remains in neutral zone, offering a bit of protection against the bear. 12/11/08-Thu-Remains with solid “near-term” bullish configurations. 12/12/08-Fri-Same as DJIA, but still expressing timidity below bullish blue curve. Force Vector is also hovering barely above bearish N on the bottom of the chart, which is a bit disturbing. However, the overall configuration suggests a continuation of near-term bullishness.

NASDAQ

12/05/08-Fri-Same as Dow Transports, but configuring with a bit more solid support for bullish inclinations on a near-term basis. 12/08/08-Mon-Same as Dow Transports. 12/09/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/10/08-Wed-Very solid bullish configuration except for Vector Pressure’s continuing residence in bearish domain. 12/11/08-Thu-This is the most aggressive bullish configuration. Notice it remains above blue bullish curve. Force Vector may be a bit too hot. Do not be surprised at bullish relaxation, while recognizing solid near-term bullishness. 12/12/08-Fri-This is the most solid bullish configuration. All attributes strongly favor bullish spurt continuation.

NASDAQ100

12/05/08-Fri-Same as Dow Transports. 12/08/08-Mon-Same as Dow Transports. 12/09/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/10/08-Wed-Same as NASDAQ. 12/11/08-Thu-Same as NASDAQ. Notice the aggression of the bullish blue curve. It may be subjected to bearish attacks, but until it collapses, the near-term bull cycle remains in tact. 12/12/08-Fri-Same as NASDAQ.

S&P500

12/05/08-Fri-Same as yesterday, but Vector Pressure moving a bit more aggressively to escape bearish domains. 12/08/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/09/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/11/08-Thu-Contrasting with the NASDAQ and NAS100, this index is below the near-term bullish blue curve. However, the blue curve remains with a bullish slope. 12/12/08-Fri-Same as DJIA.

S&P100

12/05/08-Fri-Same as S&P500. 12/08/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/09/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/10/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 12/11/08-Thu-Same as S&P500. 12/12/08-Fri-Same as DJIA.

S&P400

12/05/08-Fri-Same as S&P500. 12/08/08-Mon-Same as Dow Transports 12/09/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/10/08-Wed-Same as NASDAQ. 12/11/08-Thu-This is vacillating around bullish blue curve. As long as that continues, the bull will continue to grow. If blue collapses, then near-term bull cycle will dissipate. 12/12/08-Fri-Same as DJIA.

S&P600

12/05/08-Fri-This Force Vector continued residence in bullish domains and the only sector doing so. This is increasingly bullish, but Vector Pressure must continue to rise. 12/08/08-Mon-Force Vector moved south today, while index was aggressively bullish. This is bullish. 12/09/08-Tue-This index is really strongly bullish. It may be a bit over-heated and favoring near-term non-bullishness. Buy more related securities on weakness. 12/10/08-Wed-Same as yesterday. It was the most bullish index today. 12/11/08-Thu-This index was simply overheated. Notice that it has nestled on the bullish blue curve. That suggests it has propensity to resist bearish ambition. 12/12/08-Fri-Same as NASDAQ; very strong bullish spurt support on a near-term basis.

NYSE

12/05/08-Fri-This index continues to struggle although configuring similarly to the other indices. Vector Pressure is mounting a good move to support bullishness. However, it continues to avoid receiving a Near-term Bull signal. 12/08/08-Mon-This index fell short of topping the Bullish Blue Curve and its Force Vector continues expressing timidity. Maybe tomorrow, this laggard index will participate in the battle against the bear. 12/09/08-Tue-Today’s bearish behavior added more delays to an expression of bullish unanimity. It still remains below bullish Blue Curve. 12/10/08-Wed-This index finally received a Near-term bull signal. 12/11/08-Thu-The Big Board’s bull is one day old and survived the bearish onslaught. 12/12/08-Fri-Same as Dow.

VIX

12/05/08-Fri-Rising Force Vector is discerning, but its bull cycle is tiring. That is favorable for a bullish stock market spurt. 12/08/08-Mon-Sames as last Friday. 12/09/08-Tue-Surprisingly, the VIX configured bearishly with today’s stock market bearishness. It remains a Red Bull, which is strong, but Force Vector is leaning in favor of the VIX’s non-bullishness, which supports stock market bullishness on a near-term basis. 12/10/08-Wed-The VIX lost its Red Bull status today. It remains overheated and is not a barrier to stock market bearishness. 12/11/08-Thu-A southerly moving Force Vector should encourage the near-term bull to continue its maturing. 12/12/08-Fri-No longer a Blue Bull or a Red Bull. Force Vector continues moving bearishly, which favors stock market bullishness.

Overall Comment Regarding Major Indices: 12/05/08-Fri-The expected bullish bounce occurred today. The baby bull’s sustainability remains questionable, but as long as the Near-term Blue Curve does not collapse, this bull will continue. 12/08/08-Mon-The NYSE continues with timid configurations to support the other indices bullish attacks on the bear. Unanimity is required for a sustainable bullish cycle. 12/09/08-Tue-Same as yesterday since the NYSE continues lagging the bullish desires of the other indices. However, the near-term bull remains in tact. The NYSE needs to participate to gain measures of some sustainability. Non-bullishness, which is a tamed expression of the bear, would not be surprising with Force Vectors in their elevated position. They need to cool off (move south), which would not invoke bearish encouragement if they remain above the yellow N line on the bottom of the charts. 12/11/08-Wed-Near-term bullish unanimity was achieved today with the NYSE joining in support of the bull. Keep in mind, this Near-term expression is identifying a mere bullish spurt. As you can see, on a Quick-term basis, the major indices remain as Yellow Bears. It is unlikely this near-term bullishness will move the indices above the bearish yellow curve. However, that is a forecast and they are always wrong. Conservative participation in this “rally” is appropriate for those who enjoy trading a bit more than the longer-term investor. 12/11/08-Thu-Today’s bearishness is configured with simple profit taking. The NASDAQ, NAS100, and S&P600 offered the greatest bullish resistance today in terms of the near-term bullish configuration. As long as near-term bullish blue curves maintain their northerly trek, near-term bullish bias will prevail. 12/12/08-Fri-Today’s bullishness, although mild, supports a continuation of the bullish spurt now underway.

The Short-term Indicant signaled bull on Friday, November 28 for both the NYSE and NASDAQ as Force Vectors and other configurations shifted into bullish support on a near-term basis. This bull signal stands, even with recent bearish behavior. They are down 2.3% and up 0.3%, respectively, since the November 28, 2008 bull signal.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators are somewhat mixed with near-term bullish support. The bullish days are being accompanied with more volume than the bearish days. The variance is slight, but still favors the bull. Today’s volume was light on mild bullishness. Traders are wanting George W. to cut the check to the automakers. Some brave traders are anticipating that, but most want to hear it first.

As stated on Wednesday, December 3, you should notice the NYSE and NASDAQ are very close to the minimum point in early 2003. That should be a technical stop gap to the bearish onslaught on a Short-term basis. The probability of a bullish spurt remains high. Some attributes are supporting bullish spurt behavior on a near-term basis.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. There are 17-ETF’s with hold signals. They are down by an average of 0.9% since their buy signals 2.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 20.5%. The SQI is avoiding 14-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 33.9% since their sell signals an average of 19.1-weeks ago.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. There are 17-ETF’s enjoying a hold signal. They are down by an average of 0.9% since their buy signals 2.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 20.5%. There are 14-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 33.9% since their sell signals an average of 19.2-weeks ago.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. There are 17-ETF’s with hold signals. They are down by an average of 0.9% since their buy signals 2.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 20.5%. The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 14-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 35.0% since their sell signals an average of 16.6-weeks ago.

Current Strategy-Quick-term Indicant - Dec 5, 2008-Fri-Conservative participation in this bullish spurt is appropriate. Today’s bullish behavior was supportive of bullish configurations. Keep in mind this is a yellow bear and the bullish cycle now underway should be viewed as high risk and with minimal gains. Dec 8, 2008-Mon-This bullish spurt may offer more than minimal gains through Christmas. A Santa Claus rally pivoting off near 2003 prices can offer some double digit gains very quickly. Dec 9, 2008-Tue-Today’s bearish behavior was profit taking. Continue holding the recent “conservative” buys. Dec 10, 2008-Wed-As stated yesterday, continue holding the “conservative” buys. Dec 11, 2008-Thu-Force Vectors are positioned to accommodate a relaxing bull, while fostering continued bullish spurt behavior. This would be consistent with the Santa Claus rally. If bullish blue curve collapses, Santa Claus will not be visiting this year. Configurations, however, continue supporting the annual visit. Dec 12, 2008-Fri-Continue holding those “conservative” buys from a few weeks ago.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Click the above heading to view the charts.

Twenty-eight of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by 19.2%. This remains bearish, but weakening in bearish support.

One of the 30-ETF’s is above its bullish red curve. This is non-bullish. All thirty ETF average positions are below bullish red by an average of 19.7%. which is also non-bullish, on a Quick-term basis.

The QTI differential is bearish by 38.9%. This is the one-hundred and twenty-first consecutive trading day of a bearish reading.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. Contrarian ETF#14, TLT, is no longer making contact with recent bullish expressions. There will be more about this ETF later in this report.

The average distance from breakout contact is 41.0%. Double digit variances from breakout contact for 237-consecutive trading-days has been non-bullish.

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. This is the fifteenth consecutive trading day without bearish contact, which supports the idea of a tiring bear. However, the bear is nowhere near expiring on a trend basis.

The average distance between the price and breakdown is 20.2%, which is significantly better than the 0.8% differential on Nov 20, 2008. After providing non-bearish support since March 2003 with double digit readings, this has been a single digit expression (bearish) in 65 of the last 117-trading days. Single digit reading facilitates the bear’s roaming at will. Non-single digit values the past several days should provide the new bull encouragement.

The breakout/breakdown differential is bearish by 20.8%. This attribute continues supporting bearish ambition on a Quick-term basis, but a bullish spurt still has potential to flourish.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

Twenty-eight Force Vectors are in bullish domains. This is an increase by two from last Wednesday, which adds to near-term bullish bias. This is now in majority support for bullish ambition.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no put option buy signals after Friday’s market close.

Only one of the thirty ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. This is minority support for the bull and majority support for the bear. This is retaining bearish configurations. Configurations continue suggesting decreasing bearish support.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Indicant signaled sell for QID on November 21, 2008. It is down 24.4% since then. Its Red Bull status has succumbed to the recent stock market bullish bias.

Other Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources - This ETF is down 34.4% since the Quick-term Indicant sell signal on July 24, 2008. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal bull until Vector Pressure is positive and Yellow Bear expires.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals received a buy signal on Nov 28, 2008. It is up 0.6% since then. It recently crossed above bearish yellow, fell below, and now back above. Vector Pressure crossed into bullish domains on December 3, which triggered a call option buy signal. The expected bullish bounce occurred last Wednesday with a nice 4.5%-gain. However, that is disappointing as more bullishness is expected. Bearish yellow moving south threatens this rally, but continue holding as long it remains above bearish yellow.

ETF#14-Long Government is up 13.2% since its buy signal on Nov 19, 2008. Although it moved mildly bullish the past three days, its Force Vector is tumbling to the south, but still within bullish domains. This ETF will most likely gravitate south of Bullish Red curve and sometimes in January resume its bullish behavior. We’re going to hold unless it becomes a Yellow Bear.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Short-term Indicant for Tangential Analysis

Divergence versus Convergence

Last week’s bullish divergence shuttered bearish convergence from the prior week. That dampened bearish enthusiasm and should encourage a bit of bullish enthusiasm.

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past six weeks, interest rates are falling, which is bullish. Oil prices are declining. Those two elements, alone, are typically enough to stimulate bullish activity. Trader behavior should ignite a bullish cycle, even in the face of sour economic outlooks.

Deflation is an increasing concern. If it manifests, a 2500 Dow by 2010/11 may be optimistic. Even with that threat, a bullish spurt has been attempting to configure for the past couple of weeks. This bullish cycle is having difficulty gaining bullish traction, it has not yet succumbed to the bear.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

12/14/08

December 7, 2008 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

This Week’s Report

Reality Exerts Itself

The future is dim. The wrong people with the wrong backgrounds and selfish agenda are positioning to influence significant policy regarding economic activity. We see Senators, Congressman, Wall Street paper pushers, and other non-wealth creators dominating the news and proclaiming economic fixes. These people can influence economic activity in only two ways; they worsen it or undo their prior damage.

About 100-years ago, the economy was being positioned to thrive for many generations. Nicola Tesla, Thomas Edison, Charles E. Sorenson, Frank and Lillian Gilbreth, and one of the greatest of them all, Frederick W. Taylor, dominated the news and economic activity around the beginning of the nineteenth century.

Many of you do not know some of the above people. Nicola Tesla invented the electric motor, generators, and the radio. Everyone knows about Thomas Edison, but as a scientist, he was no match to Nicola Tesla. Tesla was no match to Edison’s business acumen. Both were great men and their efforts still contribute greatly to economic prosperity.

Charles E. Sorenson was the production manager at Ford Motor. He was the developer of the highly efficient assembly line. He enhanced productivity by directing the assembly line through the warehouse. That facilitated lower operating cost for the Model T and allowed more people to afford an automobile. The quality of life improved for both the producer and the consumer.

Frank and Lillian Gilbreth studied human motion and developed methods for improved efficiency. Frederick W. Taylor was the first industrial engineer. He devised work methods where high wages and low product costs coexisted. His effort facilitated the middle class and profound economic growth.

These individuals are just a few examples of those who led the world’s economy to unprecedented growth. Productivity is the sole source for quality of life improvements. No other concept provides that. Politicians and their antics are anti-productivity. They slow the quality of life. Some of them, such as Adolph Hitler, bring it to a screeching halt.

Japanese automobile producers were over 400% more productive than their American counterparts thirty years ago. Interestingly, the American worker was more productive than the Japanese worker at that time. So, how is it Japanese auto producers were more productive than the Americans when the Americans had access to the most productive workers? The answer rests in management; dilettante management.

An example of dilettante management occurred a few weeks ago. American auto executives flew to Washington D.C. on private corporate jets. One executive told Congress his company was going to run out of money within weeks. That is the epitome of a dilettante. How can a corporation have access to a corporate jet that is nearly out of money? There are obviously no anticipatory skills with that executive. The ability to cut costs, which is the simplest of all management functions, is apparently lacking.

We have dilettantes talking to Congress on how to save the economy. Dilettantes working with anti-wealth creators in Congress may indeed provide a stimulant. Unfortunately, the gene pool will be weakened. With that, the quality of life moves south, encouraging the bear.

Those who know how to manufacture have always ruled over those who could not. When two enemies know how to manufacture, the one who can produce the most will be the victor. People, like George Patton, Dwight Eisenhower, etc. gained fame from World War II, but the fact that the Allies produced more bullets and other projectiles than the Germans, Japanese, and Italians was the reason for victory. It has been that way since stone throwing was replaced with a spear and then the spear replaced with the bow and arrow, etc.

Socialism is the primary cause of this recession. There was a socialistic attempt to increase the quality of life for many. The idea was to help poor people move into mansions. That did work. It is impossible for that to work. Economic wealth requires hard working effort and the creation of a real product or process. Real products are physical objects. Although mortgage papers are physical objects, their value is incongruent with the objects they represent. Helping a few has been destructive to millions and will eventually be destructive to billions of people.

Since jobs are becoming scarce, more people are joining the military. Since the recession is worldwide, armies in most country are going to grow. Soldiers in those armies are robbed of their productive potential. Soldiers do not create economic wealth. If Tesla, Edison, Sorensen, the Gilbreth’s, and Frederick W. Taylor were soldiers in some army around the world, the products and processes they developed that led to increased quality of life would have been delayed for later generations. We’re about five thousand years behind where we should be because of politicians and the wars they create with their psychological problems.

Swelling armies not only rob people from their maximum potential, they create friction between countries.

The increasing influence in Washington D.C. is a major concern. They offer no new products or processes. The bear will thrive on a long-term basis. Reality exerts itself.

However, a bullish spurt remains possible and short-term configurations are still holding in support of it.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated two buy signals and no sell signals. There have been 518-sell signals since October 26, 2007.

In addition to the two buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for only 27 of the 344-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 71.7%. That annualizes to 81.3%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 27-stocks and funds for an average of 45.8-weeks.

Although there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 315-stocks and funds of the 344- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 36.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 28.5-weeks ago.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding all Mutual Funds. All one-hundred funds are down an average of 35.4% since their sell signals an average of 25.2-weeks ago. Even though a bullish spurt is possible, the Mid-term Indicant will be much more conservative before signaling buy for these funds. Bearish yellow must be toppled first.

One year ago, on Dec 7, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 235-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 131.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 157.9% (annualized at 62.5%). There were 109-avoided stocks and funds at that time. Those avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 5.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 15.7-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 311-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Dec 8, 2006. They were up by an average of 108.1% (annualized at 65.8%) since their respective buy signals an average of 85.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 33-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 11.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 19.1-weeks earlier.

There were 271-stocks and funds with hold signals on Dec 9, 2005 since their buy signals an average of 85.3-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 92.7% (annualized at 58.7%). There were 47-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 16.2% from their respective sell signals an average of 27.7-weeks earlier.

On Dec 3, 2004, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 301-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 69.8% (annualized at 67.1%) since their buy signals an average of 54.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 17-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 44.3% since their sell signals an average of 56.3-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Dec 6, 2003, there were 271-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 53.7% (annualized at 84.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 33.2-weeks earlier. There were 14-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 24.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 35.4-weeks earlier.

On Dec 7, 2002, there were 286-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 16.2%, annualizing at 81.0%. There were nine avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 30.0% since their sell signals an average of 22.4-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

All updated information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Click the following link that will take you to the tangential protection charts.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 18.5% since its secular low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 35.5% and the S&P500 is up 12.8% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 45.0%.

The Dow is down 39.0% since its last closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 47.2% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600 is down 44.4% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007.

The NASDAQ is down 70.1% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 44.0% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 26.3% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

The Dow is down 34.9% so far this year. The NASDAQ is down 43.1% this year. These conditions are incongruent with historical standards. This year should be bullish, based on those standards. The stock market occasionally delights in violating historical standards. This always happens when such standards gain in popularity. As stated for several years now, the phenomenon of commonality disallows stock market victories by the masses.

The heart and soul of bullish seasonality is again attempting to configure. It is embryonic and thus vulnerable. The past few attempts to configure were slashed by the bear.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 17.1% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%. This year had been configuring with 2001 similarity, but there is a mild chance historical standards (bullish) may be developing. Keep in mind, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality is now technically available to foster a Quick-term bullish cycle.

The NASDAQ was down by 27.7% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 45.1%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 7.2%. It was up by 3.8% in 2005. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. In 2006, it was up 11.2% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain. It was up by 10.4% at this time last year and finished 2007 up by 9.8%.

This year will be record setting bearishness for a presidential election year if a nice bullish cycle does not help round out the year.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

After pausing last week, commodities resumed their free fall to the depths of the charts. As stated in the past, OPEC is driving competitors out of the market. The Tar Sands will be unable to make money under $40/bbl. Many U.S. exploration, drilling, and completion operations will close down.

As stated the past three weeks, the concern around the corner will be deflation. Depending on magnitude, the next Great Depression is feasible. Socialism caused the problem. It will be conveyed as the solution to the problem. Poverty levels will accelerate. The quality of life will deteriorate if weak philosophical under-pinning’s continue.

As stated several weeks ago, the U.S. Dollar continues to strengthen. There is no real good reason for this, except fewer dollars by consumers are available, depressing demand. Other countries are apparently more vulnerable due to the “screw-up by politicians” and money manager dilettantes.

As stated six weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with some gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental.

As stated four weeks ago, probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009.

As stated four weeks ago, if taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.

As stated last week, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near expiration. Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from time to time, but the trend should remain bearish.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 43.0% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is down 40.5% since the Midterm Indicant signaled sell on August 1, 2008.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 141.2% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 28.5% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 49.1% since that sell signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 42.2% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 35.3% since that sell signal.

Energy related funds were aggressively bearish last week. They have endured significant bearishness in 13 of the last 17-weeks.

The SQI signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on August 4, 2008. It is down 29.1% since that sell signal. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003. This fund has been bearish in 27 of the past 45-weeks and in 19 of the past 25-weeks. This ETF remains configured for bearishness on a Short-term basis.

The SQI (Consolidated Short-term and Quick-term Indicant) model signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on November 28, 2008 (last Friday). It is up 5.0% since that buy signal. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 26.0%.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no bear signals.

The ten major indices are down by an average of 2.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull for all ten indices last week.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $30,652,942

That beats buy and hold performance of $1,313,771 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $143,403. That beats buy and hold’s $85,813 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $183,662. That beats buy and hold’s $52,334 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 2,233.2%, 67.1%, and 250.9%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy for this fund on September 12, 2008 and it signaled sell on October 31, 2008. It was up over 30% since that September buy signal. It remains too risky to hold for the time being. Once the heart and soul of bullish seasonality expires, this fund will receive a buy signal; most likely in January 2009. It is up 11.8% since the October 31, 2008 sell signal. This fund is volatile and too risky to buy at this time. Two weeks ago it was up 54.5% since that sell signal. As you can see, it plummeted the past two weeks and expected to continue to do so.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Always remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 198.3% (annualized at 11.6%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 992-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: One of thirty, but it is contrarian. No bullish support at this time.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twenty-nine of thirty. Still supporting bearish behavior.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is bearish 46.0%; still with strong bearish support, but weakening. This suggests bearish trend remains strong.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential is bearish 26.3%; this remains solidly in support of the bear, but weakened in that support the past several trading days and continues to weaken regardless of last Monday’s bearish aggression. As stated a few days ago, do not be surprised at strong bullish spurt behavior in the next few days.

Short-term Indicant: Breakdown contact density occurred in five of the last 15-days, but in none of the last ten trading days. The bear is obviously relaxing in spite of Monday’s bearish aggression. Bearish fatigue would not be surprising for the next two to four weeks at a minimum.

Short-term Indicant: Bearish position.

Force Vectors: Twelve are in bullish domains. Now with majority support for the bull, but down considerably the past two day. Configurations suggest the bull will respond violently to this bearish aggression. That aggression occurred last Thursday and the bull responded appropriately.

STI Tangential Support: None; therefore, bearish. Reverse tangential constructions offer high probability the bear will respond violently to any bullish spurt that may form. Such a response would not be surprising before year end. (This has been changed in timing from presidential inauguration, but may shift this expectation back to late January). Either way, this bear is nowhere near extinction. It will be long lasting and deep! But for traders, there is some excitement in the attempt to participate in bullish spurts from time to time. For longer-term investors, cash is king.

Reverse Tangential Support: Being constructed, fostering a very high probability of bearish sustainability. However, there is again some potential for a bullish spurt.

Immediate Tactics: Cash is king except for two extremely conservative buy signals on Friday, November 21, 2008 and several more “conservative” Quick-term and Short-term buy signals on Friday, November 28, 2008. This latter buys are still holding. Longer-term views should avoid buying when prices are below bearish yellow curve.

Current Short-term/Quick-term Bias: Bullish bias born on Friday, November 28, 2008.

Overall Market Status: Configurations support bullish bias.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Enhanced as volatility is significant and expected. Put option buy signals on Thursday and Friday are of extraordinary risk of disappointing.

Volume: Although there is a mild bullish bias, other attributes are increasingly supporting a bullish bias.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

To view the STI-Tangential Protection for ten major indices, click here.

DJIA

11/27/08-Fri-Configurations shifted to bull today. It is a yellow bull, which should not manifest into a thoroughbred, but it should facilitate bullish spurt behavior. 12/01/08-Mon-In spite of today’s bearish aggression, configurations remain in favor of a bullish spurt. Force Vectors remained in bullish domains and the index remained above the Bullish Blue curve. 12/02/08-Tue-The DJIA’s 3.3% gain today was consistent with expectations. Keep in mind this is a yellow bear bullish spurt, which suggests the bullish cycle will without enthusiasm. 12/03/08-Wed-Today’s bullish aggression followed by yesterday’s bullish aggression was without economic merit. However, from time to time, technical aspirations override economic fundamentals. Keep in mind, yellow-bear bullish spurts are generally muted, but bullish nonetheless. Also, as you have seen since late August, yellow bear configurations invite dynamic bearish expressions. 12/04/08-Thu-Force Vectors continue to decline but still reside in bullish domains. Vector Pressure is about to cross out of bearish domains. The bullish blue curve has not collapsed in spite of today’s bearishness. This baby bull remains vulnerable, but still resisting the dominance by the bear. 12/05/08-Fri-The bullish charge is timid. Vector Pressure continues to mount a charge is very near climbing out of bearish domains. Force Vectors dipped into neutrality but that is okay and common. The Bullish Red Curve is about to cross below Bearish Yellow Curve. Although that is exceedingly bearish, it is usually a rallying point for the bull. Although the index remains below its Blue Bullish Curve, it is climbing. As long as it does not collapse, this baby bull has a good chance of providing a bullish spurt for a few weeks.

DJ Composites

11/27/08-Fri-Same as DJIA. 12/01/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/02/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/03/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 12/04/08-Thu-Same as DJIA, except Vector Pressure is a bit weaker. 12/05/08-Fri-Same as DJIA, but as stated yesterday, Vector Pressure remains inside bearish domains.

DJ Transports

11/27/08-Fri-Same as DJIA. 12/01/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/02/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/03/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 12/04/08-Thu-Same as DJIA, except Vector Pressure remains weak and the primary cause of this bearish attribute for the DJ Composites. 12/05/08-Fri-Same as yesterday.

DJ Utilities

11/27/08-Fri-Last Wednesday’s bull is holding up. 12/01/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/02/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/03/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. Additionally, you can see the blue bullish curve mounting an assault on the bear. It is in the lower right hand corner of the chart. You may want to set your browser to large font size to see it. This is the second time in the past few weeks where such an assault occurred. The last time this happened, the bear smacked it right back down to lower levels. This could very well be a Santa Clause rally. 12/04/08-Fri-This index crossed below Red-X with today’s bearish behavior. Its Force Vector is nestled right on top of Vector Pressure, which offers a 79% probability of a strong bullish response. Do not be surprised at dynamic bullishness in the next day or two. Its blue bullish curve did not collapse today under the weight of bearish aggression. 12/05/08-Fri-Somewhat discerning is Force Vector’s fall into bearish domains. The Blue Bullish Curve, which is a product of the Near-term Indicant continues moving north, but the baby bull finds this Force Vector behavior a bit threatening. However, Vector Pressure is more dominant and it continues residing above bearish domains.

NASDAQ

11/27/08-Fri-Same as DJIA. 12/01/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/02/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/03/08-Wed-Same as Dow Utilities. The bullish blue curve is very embryonic and therefore vulnerable to the bear. 12/04/08-Thu-Same as DJ Transports. 12/05/08-Fri-Same as Dow Transports, but configuring with a bit more solid support for bullish inclinations on a near-term basis.

NASDAQ100

11/27/08-Fri-Same as DJIA. 12/01/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/02/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/03/08-Wed-Same as NASDAQ. 12/04/08-Thu-Same as DJ Transports. 12/05/08-Fri-Same as Dow Transports.

S&P500

11/27/08-Fri-Same as DJIA. 12/01/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/02/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/03/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 12/04/08-Thu-Same as DJ Transports. 12/05/08-Fri-Same as yesterday, but Vector Pressure moving a bit more aggressively to escape bearish domains.

S&P100

11/27/08-Fri-Same as DJIA. 12/01/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/02/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/03/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 12/04/08-Thu-Same as DJIA. 12/05/08-Fri-Same as S&P500.

S&P400

11/27/08-Fri-Same as DJIA. 12/01/08-Mon-Same as DJIA. 12/02/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/03/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 12/04/08-Thu-Same as DJ-Composites. 12/05/08-Fri-Same as S&P500.

S&P600

11/27/08-Fri-Force Vector bearish position prevented bull signal, but moving in the proper direction to do so by early next week. 12/01/08-Mon-Even with today’s bearish aggression, Force Vectors moved into bullish domains. However, this index still remains below the Bullish Blue curve. 12/02/08-Tue-This index received a Near-term Bull signal today. 12/03/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 12/04/08-Thu-Same as DJ-Composites. 12/05/08-Fri-This Force Vector continued residence in bullish domains and the only sector doing so. This is increasingly bullish, but Vector Pressure must continue to rise.

NYSE

11/27/08-Fri-Same as S&P600. 12/01/08-Mon-Same as S&P600. 12/02/08-Tue-This is the only major index not supporting the bull. Its Force Vector is above Red-X, but it remains below the Blue Bull Curve, which prevents it from receiving a bull signal. 12/03/08-Wed-The bull remains too anemic within this index to mount a bullish assault. Although Force Vectors are supportive, it still cannot find the gumption to climb above the bullish blue curve. 12/04/08-Thu-This index remains as the only one preventing unanimous support for bullish inspiration. 12/05/08-Fri-This index continues to struggle although configuring similarly to the other indices. Vector Pressure is mounting a good move to support bullishness. However, it continues to avoid receiving a Near-term Bull signal.

VIX

11/27/08-Fri-Positions remain in strong bullish support, but weakening, which should bode well for a stock market with bullish desires in spite of today’s (12/01/08) aggression by the bear. 12/02/08-Tue-This index remains in bullish domains, but you can see its bull cycle is tiring. That bodes well for a bullish spurt. 12/03/08-Wed-Of concern is the mature Force Vector. A rapid rise to the north would jump start another bearish cycle for the stock market. 12/04/08-Thu-Still residing in healthy bullish domains, but that should temper markets into, at the very worse, non-bearish behavior. 12/05/08-Fri-Rising Force Vector is discerning, but its bull cycle is tiring. That is favorable for a bullish stock market spurt.

Overall Comment Regarding Major Indices: 11/27/08-Fri-The major indices are yellow bears, but received near-term bull signals. All buying should be made with the idea of a bullish spurt, as opposed to a sustainable bull. 12/01/08-Mon-You will notice it moved back to the north, but short of its bullish Blue Curve. Unfortunately for the stock market, it used its bullish Red Curve as a bouncing point. This is the second time this has occurred along this bullish cycle. There is a low probability of it doing that a third time, which enhances probabilities of a bullish spurt. 12/02/08-Tue-The S&P600 joined the other major indices in support of a bullish cycle. The only major index preventing unanimity is the NYSE, which is cluttered with organizations run by dilettantes. However, even with that, good greed by the investment community should foster bullish inclinations on a near-term basis. 12/03/08-Pretty much the same as yesterday. The bull may be inspired for a short time with socialistic activities, such as bailing out incompetent manufacturing operations in Detroit, but rest assured the bull will not like socialism for the long haul. 12/04/08-Thu-Today’s bearish behavior did not disfigure Near-term bullish attributes. Keep in mind, the Quick-term Indicant remains a yellow bear and that will last for several more months. 12/05/08-Fri-The expected bullish bounce occurred today. The baby bull’s sustainability remains questionable, but as long as the Near-term Blue Curve does not collapse, this bull will continue.

The Short-term Indicant signaled bull on Friday, November 28 for both the NYSE and NASDAQ as Force Vectors and other configurations shifted into bullish support. This bull signal stands, even with December 1’s aggression by the bear. They are down 2.2% and 1.7% respectively since November 28, 2008 bull signal. Aggressive bullish expressions are imminent. Thursday’s bearishness was a sucker rally for the bears, but justified as Senators and Congressman got a lot of press time, which always excites the bear. As you can see, Friday’s bullish bounce was solid.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators are somewhat mixed with near-term bullish support but overall bearish support.

As stated last Wednesday, you should notice the NYSE and NASDAQ are very close to the minimum point in early 2003. That should be a technical stop gap to the bearish onslaught on a Short-term basis. The probability of a bullish spurt is increasing. Some attributes are supporting significant bullish spurt behavior on a near-term basis.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. There are 17-ETF’s with hold signals. They are up by an average of 0.001% since their buy signals 1.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 0.3%. The SQI is avoiding 14-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 36.7% since their sell signals an average of 18.1-weeks ago.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. There are 17-ETF’s enjoying a hold signal. They are up by an average of 0.001% since their buy signals 1.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 0.3%. There are 14-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 36.7% since their sell signals an average of 18.1-weeks ago.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. There are 17-ETF’s with hold signals. They are up by an average of 0.001% since their buy signals 1.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 0.3%. The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 14-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 37.6% since their sell signals an average of 15.6-weeks ago.

Current Strategy-Quick-term Indicant - Nov 28, 2008-Fri-Most of the non-contrarian ETF’s and major indices are yellow bears. However, their configurations are supporting a bullish spurt. Those ETF’s with recent buy/sell signals are again receiving a buy signal to participate in a bullish spurt. Dec 1, 2008-Mon-Today’s dynamic bearish expression did not reverse last Friday’s buy signals. The hold positions are based on Force Vectors residing in bullish domains. They may move south and if they cross back into bearish domains, sell signals will ensue. Other attributes suggest today’s bearish aggression is an aberration although consistent with yellow bears and a bearish trend. Set stop losses at 10% below buy price. The good news is that buy prices were significantly lower today than after last Friday’s close. Dec 2, 2008-Tue-Configurations remain in support of a bullish spurt. Be cautious and conservative. Dec 3, 2008-Wed-A Santa Claus rally is configuring for a mild bullish spurt. Dec 4, 2008-Thu-A few Quick-term Indicant attributes are suggesting imminent dynamic bullishness. Today’s bearish behavior appears to be a bear’s sucker rally. Also, politicians were getting quite a bit of press, which typically biases behavior in favor of the bear. Bullish bias continues to be favored, albeit under yellow bear configurations. Dec 5, 2008-Fri-Conservative participation in this bullish spurt is appropriate. Today’s bullish behavior was supportive of bullish configurations. Keep in mind this is a yellow bear and the bullish cycle now underway should be viewed as high risk and with minimal gains.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Click the above heading to view the charts.

Twenty-nine of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by 22.5%. This remains bearish, but weakening in bearish support.

One of the 30-ETF’s is above its bullish red curve. This is non-bullish. All thirty ETF average positions are below bullish red by an average of 23.4%. which is also non-bullish.

The QTI differential is bearish by 46.0%. This is the one-hundred and sixteenth consecutive trading day of a bearish reading.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

One of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. This remains non-bullish, as it is contrarian ETF#14, TLT.

The average distance from breakout contact is 43.1%. Double digit variances from breakout contact for 232-consecutive trading-days has been non-bullish.

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. This is the tenth consecutive trading day without bearish contact, which supports the idea of a tiring bear. However, the bear is nowhere near expiring on a trend basis.

The average distance between the price and breakdown is 16.8%, which is significantly better than the 0.8% differential on Nov 20, 2008. After providing non-bearish support since March 2003 with double digit readings, this has been a single digit expression (bearish) in 65 of the last 112-trading days. Single digit reading facilitates the bear’s roaming at will. Non-single digit values the past few days should provide the new bull encouragement.

The breakout/breakdown differential is bearish by 26.3%. This attribute continues supporting bearish ambition.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

Twelve Force Vectors are in bullish domains. This again is in majority support for bullish ambition. Last Monday’s bearish aggression did not depress this attribute and thus the hold signals are maintained.

You should notice this is a significant decrease from yesterday’s twenty-nine. These Force Vector crossings into bearish domains triggered several put option buy signals. It is recommended to be passive with these put options.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were twelve put option buy signals after Friday’s market close.

Several Force Vectors crossed into bearish domains the past two day, triggering many put option buy signals. Volatility still remains.

As stated last Thursday, the perfect situation would be a bullish bounce on Friday followed by a bearish expression early next week; say Monday and Tuesday at the latest. Current configurations are biased in favor of the bull which suggests an aggressive approach to these put option buy signals may disappoint. If they do not disappoint, strike it up to good luck. Configurations on Friday, December 05, 2008 suggests no participation in these puts.

Last Tuesday’s call option buy signal for #11-GLD is setting up nicely for nice profits. It is an appealing configuration for a profitable transaction. Gold is configuring for a bullish cycle. Unfortunately, it has not performed well, but expected to do so in the event you are still holding. In this case, hold for one more day and if you have a good strike price (above yellow), then hold until triple witching which is two weeks from today.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Indicant signaled sell for QID on November 21, 2008. It is down 19.4% since then.

Other Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources - This ETF is down 40.0% since the Quick-term Indicant sell signal on July 24, 2008. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal bull until Vector Pressure is positive and Yellow Bear expires.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals received a buy signal on Nov 28, 2008. It is down 7.2% since then. It crossed above bearish yellow last week and has since crossed back below. Vector Pressure crossed into bullish domains last Wednesday, which triggered a call option buy signal. It is configuring for a nice bullish bounce on a Short-term basis. A bullish bounce is needed to prevent it succumbing to yellow bear influences again.

ETF#14-Long Government is up 11.3% since its buy signal on Nov 19, 2008.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Short-term Indicant for Tangential Analysis

Divergence versus Convergence

Bearish convergence was endured last week. That occurred last Monday with aggressive bearish behavior. Volatile expressions followed last Monday’s bearish aggression, but with a bullish bias. Last week’s bearish convergence was offset with bullish divergence toward the end of last week.

Indicant Conclusion

There were again no Mid-term Indicant buy signals for Mutual Funds. All 100-mutual funds are with avoid signals. Although the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models are suggesting buy again for about one-half of the ETF’s tracked, the Mid-term Indicant will not signal buy for most of the Mutual Funds until they remove themselves from bearish domains. Current configurations suggest it could a year or longer for that to occur.

As stated the past five weeks, interest rates are falling, which is bullish. Oil prices are declining. Those two elements, alone, are typically enough to stimulate bullish activity. Trader behavior should ignite a bullish cycle, even in the face of sour economic outlooks.

Deflation is an increasing concern. If it manifests, a 2500 Dow by 2010/11 may be optimistic. Even with that threat, a bullish spurt has been attempting to configure for the past six days.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

12/07/08