December 2011 Weekly Stock Market Reports

Dec 25, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 12, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

NASDAQ100’s Seventh Crossing above 2007-Peak

One week ago, the NASDAQ100 was flat with its Oct 31, 2007 peak. This past week it again eclipsed its peak from 2007. It is the only index enjoying that achievement. Historians of the future would still be pegging the 2007-bear market as still in effect at the conclusion of this pitiful pre-election year.

Several of the other indices eclipsed their 2007 peaks once or twice in the past year, but most are well below their 2007 peaks. Technically, the stock market is a bear despite the 2009-2010 bull cycles.

As stated last week, the last bearish pre-election year occurred in 1939. There was no NASDAQ Index in 1939. Although the DJIA is up this year, the NASDAQ is not. The S&P500 is up only 0.6% this year. In combination, one could argue 2011 was a pitiful pre-election year and with some stretch to that argument, it could be classified, as a bear based on major indices, excluding the DJIA. Even if the DJIA finishes up this year, which is likely, its performance will be pitiful when compared to the historical standards of pre-election year bullishness.

Most of the stock market research uses the DJIA, since its history spans from 1896, while other major indices are newer. The DJIA will finish this year up and continuing the tradition of pre-election year bullishness. (If the DJIA is extraordinarily bearish next week, pre-election normalcy will not occur. That is not likely, though.)

The upcoming election year of 2012 will be interesting. There are many concerns, many of which emanate from abroad. The Far East economies are flat to down. Europe dominates the news. The U.S. is buying more and more oil from Venezuela. Politicians are standing in the way of the Keystone Pipeline from Canada to Texas refineries. Polls continue showing political incumbents are electable. That is bearish for the stock market. The problem is not just the politicians. The real problem confronting the stock market are the high numbers of Americans willing to vote for incumbents. It is possible for another FDR environment to manifest, where the stock market will remain bearish for over twenty-years. China is expanding its military and especially the naval capacity. The Canadians wish to sell their oil. The Chinese are willing buyers of it.

History repeats from time to time. When all the brains are empty of memories of political stupidity in the past, they basically vote for the same hardships endured by their ancestors. All at birth are in a state of tabula rasa. When none are hungry, a sense of threat and the harshness of reality are unknown. Such comfort invites lazy thinking. When buying smart phones, marketers promote products of entertainment, as opposed to products of knowledge. Those empty brains listening to low talent music are expressed in those polls.

People on the left refer to the tar sand oil from Canada to Texas as dirty. Those same folks buy products, such as the i-Phone and other similar products that could not exist without oil. Most have never been in a manufacturing plant, where lubricants and energy are required for the production of products that appeal to their desires. Many bang away on their computers, consuming batteries and utility power that could not exists without extracts from this planet. Those folks elect politicians in some parts of the country with limited and biased intelligence. That magnitude of economic stupidity imposes threats to the capital markets.

Progress has never been legislated. All progress has evolved from individual initiative and effort. Tesla’s AC, Ford Model T, Edison’s light bulb, etc. were not financed by political money laundering operations. Most of us still enjoy a high quality of life from those three individuals, plus a few thousand others that are not as famous.

However, politicians continue interjecting their influence. They are increasingly acting as a wedge between the productive and economic leeches. Economic leeches populate all levels of the economic spectrum, ranging from those in poverty to college professors. They are allowed to vote. And they typically vote for more socialism. College professors have a limited sense of reality. They influence the empty brains of their students, adding yet more to the leech community. Economic leeches, coupled with political interventions to economic activity, promulgate economic evolution to economic devolution. That is bearish. It has always been that way and it will always be that way. There is no substitute for individual effort. People arguing this point are pure leeches and feel threatened by it. Facts and proof are irrelevant to leeches.

Bullish unanimity is required before expectations of bullish sustainability. The NASDAQ100 is the only major index preventing this desired bullish unanimity. That is because it is still receiving a bear signal. It will retain its bear signal until it crosses its blue curve with Force above Pressure. Its Force Vector is moving favorably to the stock market bull, but timidly. It

may cross above next week. If so, a bull signal will be triggered. If not, bullish unanimity will remain absent and thus justification for remaining on guard on behalf of your investment portfolios.

The short-term cycles have been increasingly bullish the past few days. There have been several head fakes the past several months with bullish or bearish press releases from Europe. This wild stock market fluttering is common ahead of longer-term bearish cycles. Politicians around the world and in the U.S. are the sole source of stock market bearishness. Until they quiet down and/or recognized by the majority of the population as impotent to any meaningful cause, the stock market bull will continue to lack inspiration.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

NAS#34-CTAS was the NASDAQ’s biggest gainer last week. It was up 14.3%. It is up by only 23.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy in Nov 2010. As you can see over one-half of its annual growth occurred just last week. This stock has been enduring a bearish trend since the stock market bear of 2000. During last week’s low volume performance, traders decided to jump the price of this stock.

The NASDAQ’s biggest loser was NAS#87-ORCL. It was down 10.8%. It is up by only 27.2% since the MTI buy signal in Jul 2009. That annualizes to a disappointing 9.8%. However, this stock is trend friendly to bullish aspiration.

ISTK#18-EK was down 16.9%, as the Indicant Select Stocks biggest loser. Eastman Kodak makes this list quite a bit, jumping wildly to the north and south from week to week. This debt ridden, dilettante infest company should be avoided forever. It is in its final days of being leeched to death. It is down 97.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in Nov 2007. Some of America’s finest academic institutions provided Eastman their finest MBA’s over the past 30-years or so, while Cannon and other manufacturers who defeated Eastman had none of them. There are a couple of reasons the Indicant tracks Eastman and other companies like it. Eastman is a former Dow30 stock and some members like to short stocks even though not a recommendation from The Indicant.

ISTK#66-MDR was ISTK’s biggest gainer. It was up 15.9%. Its trend since 2008 is mildly bearish, but its sector’s long-term trend is bullish. Technically, this stock is troubled and flirting with yellow bear status. It is up 5.8% since the MTI sell signal a few weeks ago.

There were no losers within the Dow30 group of stocks. The biggest gainer was Bank of America-DJIA#06-BAC. This dog of a stock was 7.7%. It is down, however, by 84.7% since the MTI sell signal in Jan 2008. This is a bailed out company. Buying it would be like buying companies in a communistic regime. It will not perform on the mid-term horizon.

DJIA#04-MSFT was up 0.1% last week, as the Dow30’s weakest performer. It has been in steady decline since 1999, with their millionaire staff working half as hard as they worked in the late 1980’s through about Y2K. It is down 4.2% since the MTI buy signal this past October.

The Dow Utilities also enjoyed no losers. The biggest gainer was DJU#11-WMB. It was up 5.5% last week and up 47.4% since the MTI buy signal in Oct 2010. It is a solid hold and pays a nice dividend.

DJU#13-EXC was up 1.6% last week. It is down, however, since the MTI sell signal a few weeks ago. This stock was wildly bullish ahead of the 2008 bear, but has struggled the most of the utilities since the 2009-recovery.

MF#29-FSAVX was up 5.9%, as the mutual funds biggest gainer. This fund has been fluttering wildly around the MTI-Bearish Yellow Curve for several weeks. It is threatened by volatile oil prices and contains elements of communism in this sector. It is up 4.5% since the MTI sell signal two weeks ago.

MF#22-USPIX was down 4.8% last week due to stock market bullishness even though the NASDAQ was the weakest bull and thus one reason for this fund’s mild bearishness last week. It is down 79.2% since the MTI sell signal in April 2009.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated nine buy signals and no-sell signals. The 119-buy signals in the past ten weeks and forty-six sell signals the past five weekends illustrate an unusual bull-bear battle during the middle section of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The stock market is confused as to what it should be; bull, bear, or neutral. The problem is the wild commitments from day to day the past several months.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 231 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 60.7%. That annualizes to 38.8%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 231-stocks and funds for an average of 81.2-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 83-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 19.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 48.8-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Dec 24, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 292-stocks and funds out of 338-tracked for an average of 47.2-weeks. They were up by an average of 43.3% (annualized at 47.7%). There were 46-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 50.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 123.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 208-stocks and funds of the 317-tracked two years ago on Dec 25, 2009. They were up by an average of 30.5%, annualized at 54.1%, since their respective buy signals an average of 29.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 105-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 40.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 90.5-weeks earlier. There were four-buy signals in addition to 178-buy signals in the prior 22-weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2009.

There were only 31-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 344-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Dec 19, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 42.9-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 60.4% (annualized at 73.2%). There were 311-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 35.1% from their respective sell signals an average of 30.7-weeks earlier. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2008 while there were 570-sell signals in the prior 58-weeks, as the bear market was nearing its eventual depth, but still incomplete in its final destruction. There were only two buy signals on this weekend in 2008 even with the weighted influence to do so with the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

On Dec 21, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 226-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 158.2% (annualized at 61.4%) since their buy signals an average of 134.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 100-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 2.8% since their sell signals an average of 17.0-weeks earlier. There were 17-buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2007 in addition to 85-sell signals in the prior eight weeks. The Mid-term bull cycle, originating in March 2003, was well past its peak at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies. A huge number of sell signals continued for the next several months as the bear market gained momentum throughout most of 2008, through early 2009.

Five years ago, on Dec 22, 2006, there were 312-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 344 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 103.9% (annualized at 62.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 87.1-weeks earlier. There were 30-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 12.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 20.1-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and two sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid, for the most, part in 2006.

On Dec 23, 2005, there were 269-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 97.4%, annualizing at 59.9%, since their respective buy signals an average of 84.6-weeks earlier. There were 49-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 15.0% since their sell signals an average of 26.6-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2005.

There were 302-stocks and funds with hold signals on Dec 24, 2004. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 320-stocks and funds since then. They were up by an average of 72.3%, annualizing at 66.4%, since their buy signals 56.7-weeks earlier. The 16-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 39.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 58.2-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2004. The 2004-meandering bear market that pestered throughout most of 2004 had acquiesced to the heart and soul of bullish seasonality at this time in 2004.

On Dec 26, 2003, there were 283-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 55.8% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 35.0-weeks earlier. That annualized at 82.9%. There were only 10-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 26.6% since their sell signals an average of 37.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were three-buy signals in addition to 426-buy signals in the prior 40-weeks. The 2003 bull market was 43-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Dec 27, 2002, there were 274-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 14.2% since their buy signals an average of 13.5-weeks earlier, annualizing at 54.7%. There were only ten-stocks and funds avoided since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 21.9-weeks earlier. The avoided stocks and funds were down 25.6%. There were three-buy signals in addition to 512-buy signals in the prior 22-weeks. Although the stock market bear remained in effect, it weakness was maturing in favor of the stock market bull. Some of the Aug. 2002-buy signals retained hold signals through late 2007 and early 2008, while others endured sell signals before the conclusion of calendar year 2002 and in early 2003. Energy related buy signals in Aug 2002, however, held strongly through the December 2002-record-bear for December and lasted until late 2008. There were three sell signals on this weekend in 2002.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Bull and Bear Signals This Weekend

The Mid-term cycle strengthened, significantly, last week, favoring the stock market bull. Therefore, there was an uptick in buy signals and no sell signals. That is the exact opposite from the prior week. However, mid-term configurations triggered several bull signals for the major indices offering significant contributions to bullish attributes.

Bullish unanimity remains absent, however, along the mid-term cycle. The NASDAQ100 is not yet configuring with bullish attributes. That remains a bit inspirational to the stock market bear. Keep in mind, however, the stock market bull was not disturbed this past week by that.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 68.7% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 135.0% and the S&P500 is up 62.9% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 145.8% since October 9, 2002.

All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months. Configurations shifted in support of normal pre-election year bullishness seven weeks ago. However, it is increasingly obvious the heart and soul of bullish seasonality may not manifest its normal bullishness in this pre-election year, which is the most bullish of all the political years along the four year cycle. However, last week’s performance shifted the stock market into a bullish position. If that hold next week, the normalcy of pre-election year bullishness will be retained, albeit an extraordinary weak one.

The NASDAQ is down 48.1% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 17.2% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 4.9% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish the last eleven years. Technically, one could call that a secular bear; albeit a mild one.

The Dow has stumbled three times when encountering its 2000 peak value. Will it do that again? It is again above its 2000 peak for the fourth time this century for the third consecutive week in this attempt to hold above that level. The S&P500 topped its 2000 peak for a few brief weeks in 2007 and has since drifted bearishly, although crashing in 2008. The 2009-2010 bullish rebound, though, has not overcome bearish influences so far this century. The NASDAQ has never come close, as its prior peak price was hype driven. The DOTCOM sector does not perform agriculture, manufacture, or extract. Therefore, most companies within that index created no wealth. It remains appropriately bearish relative to the 2000 phony peak prices.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence. If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak. Look at the resumes of intellectual elites who argue against these points. You will detect they are pure economic leeches arguing on behalf of such regulations, which is a source of their livelihoods. None has ever produced anything of value.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 21.2% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality manifested early in the cycle, but floundered at the approach of the Santa Claus rally.

The NASDAQ was down by 29.2% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 47.9%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by a paltry 7.8% from that year’s meandering bear market, but finished 2004 up by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was up 3.4% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up by 8.9% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 11.5% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline. The 2008-bear was already underway at this time of year in 2007.

The NASDAQ was down by 42.6% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 43.9% on this weekend in 2009 and finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 17.5% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is up 6.2% this year. The S&P500 is up by a mere 0.6% this year. The NASDAQ is down 1.3% this year. As you can see, the stock market bull has been shying away from the idea that historical standards of stock market bullishness should repeat this year, but overall there is a good chance it will finish this year as a bull.

The Dow is down 13.2% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 8.4% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 19.2% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. This coincides with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007.

Eclipsing and holding above 2007 cyclical peaks remains elusive. As of this past weekend, all major indices are below their 2007 peaks with the exception of the NASDAQ100, which is up 2.0% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The major indices continue expressing difficulty justifying an escape from those 2007-peak prices.

Several indices have never challenged those peak prices. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 21.3% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. As you can see from recent stock market behavior, suspicions about the 2009-2011 bull leg had merit. It still does. The reason for those suspicions was near maximal incongruence between political leadership and the underlying principles of capital markets. The Dec 12, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

Most major last cyclical bottoms occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. If prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

The Dow is up 87.8% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 106.4% and the S&P500 is up 87.0% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 130.8% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Such a successor bear cycle may now be underway, although not expected to continue as Washington DC has a propensity to stalemate during presidential pre-election years. This is especially true when the president is unpopular. Both of those conditions persist and favorable to the stock market bull, but polls are suggesting it is too close to inspire the stock market bull. That, coupled with European weakness, confronts the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets both free and controlled are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As you have seen the past several weeks, the potential for a massive and long-lasting bear is possible, as dilettantes, worldwide, continue converting their currencies to meaningless expressions. Interestingly, an “instinctive” resistance to this is manifesting, which could obsolete the previous sentence. Unfortunately, the dilettantes have not been locked-up, yet. The rate of undoing prior economic damage by politicians is slowing and may not manifest.

As promised by Bernanke in late 2008, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat in their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value. Bernanke continues with his promise of more of the same for through 2012. Policy settings typically remain fixed during the second half of a president’s term. That stability is one reason why the historical record demonstrates stock market bullishness from the mid-term election year through the election year. Fortunately, U.S. politicians are losing influence on the shrinking world stage. Unfortunately, foreign politicians are made of the same DNA, which is unfavorable to any economic activity. Unfortunately, the paper currency basis of worldwide economies is under threat, as the culmination of OPM disease by politicians may be approaching the “critical dimension.”

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. They have been yielding zero for the past 20-weeks.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 49-weeks ago. It lost Red Bull status 14-weeks ago with a continuing sharp drop against the greenback. You can see it has a triple camelback with negative (bearish) trend. It is on the verge of becoming a Yellow Bear

The Canadian dollar remains within the tolerances of its weakening cycle. It is more solidly resuming a cycle of weakness. The CA$ moved in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) 15-weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull (bearish for the CA$), which threatens its cycle of strengthening. The Japanese Yen continue strengthening, although bearish last week. The Japanese yen remains extraordinarily strong due to that country’s superior management in the private sector.

Gold’s optimistic 2012 forecast has been elevated to $1800/oz. As you can see, it is no longer a Red Bull. Despite solid bearish behavior in nine of the past 13-weeks, it continues trading above the 2012 yearend forecast curve, but getting close to losing that lofty position. The $2,000/oz.-forecast by 2014 remains challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains intact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild, but with deepening bearish bias. It fell below yellow 19-weeks ago on souring economic news, but rebounded eight weeks ago. Despite periodic days of depressed behavior, it is holding up well. It escaped Yellow Bear status, as expected. It is now in the neutral zone.

Commodity prices continue falling from their recent record highs due to souring economic forecast. None are Red Bulls. Their potential contribution to inflationary pressures remains absent, as most are now Yellow bears or within the zone of neutrality. Their mid-term cycle remains bullish but under attack by the commodities bear. However, their behavior has not disrupted their general bullish trend that originated in early 2009

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures fell prey to bearish economic pressures the past few weeks. It is approaching Yellow Bear status, but it continues resisting that condition with a strong rebound in three of the last five weeks. However, it is now very close to becoming a yellow bear.

Commodity prices, overall, are favoring potential for a bearish cycle. If it manifests, some elements of inflationary threats will be dampened.

Mortgage rates continue moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011. They continue along a bearish cycle.

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing with unfavorable results. Inflationary threats are now being computed. However, the combined absolute value of interest rates and inflation or deflation remains relatively safe at this time. The CPI was down last month, dampening inflationary concerns, but elevating the potential for deflation, albeit mildly so.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and currently non-threatening toward inflation or deflation.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 also received an MTI sell signal on Dec 16, 2011.

The above two gold funds are too risky to hold at this time. Gold is under short-term pressure by the gold bear. Once that pressure is relieved, buy signals will be triggered.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It received a buy signal on Oct 28, 2011 after missing an 18% opportunity due to rapid bullishness ahead of Force Vector justification to signal buy. It is down 10.9% since that buy signal. Its proximity to MTI Yellow prevented a sell signal even though Force is in bearish domains. The problem with Vanguard is the number of restrictions on trades.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 28, 2011 after missing about 20% of opportunity. The Mid-term Indicant had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011. Force must climb into bullish domains and price must eclipse blue before the next buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 25, 2011. It is up 3.8% since the MTI sell signal on Nov 25, 2011.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010 and was basically flat until the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 30, 2011. It again signaled buy on Oct 28, 2011 after missing about 24% of opportunity. Unfortunately, the Mid-term Indicant had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011.

The Near-term and Quick-term signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Dec 14, 2011. It is up by 5.9% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. It was up over 25.0%, annualized at 29.0% from its Quick-term buy signal on Sep 15, 2010 and the Quick-term sell signal on Aug 8, 2011. It was down slightly between the Dec 1, 2011 buy signal and the sell signal on Dec 14, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 93.8% since that buy signal, annualizing at 30.5%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy on Jul 6, 2011. It was up about 10% until the NTI signaled sell on Sep 23, 2011. It was flat since that sell signal and its most recent buy signal on Oct 26, 2011. It was down slightly from that Oct 26, 2011 buy signal until the sell signal on Dec 12, 2011. It is now down 3.5% since that Dec 12, 2011 sell signal.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were five new bull signals and no new bear signals.

In addition to the new bulls, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for four of the major indices. They are up by an average of 7.9%, since their bull signals an average of 23.3-weeks ago. The lone bear, NASDAQ100, is up by an average of 6.4% since its bear signal four weeks ago. It did not qualify for a bull signal. Its Force Vector needs to cross above Pressure and/or into bullish domains. The bull was apparently angered with last week’s bear signals, which were countered with new bull signals.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $31,248,345. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,870,379 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $132,633. That beats buy and hold’s $123,943 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $208,835. That beats buy and hold’s $90,799 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,570.7%, 7.0%, and 130.0%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post-election year, 2009, which is the historical standard.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 79.2% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 324.7% (annualized at 16.1%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,051-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report – Summary

More non-contrarian ETF’s received buy signals, but some non-contrarians continue with avoid signals. Those with avoid signals have Force Vector support for buying, but have been too passive. They are struggling to climb above NTI Blue. The absence of unanimity of near-term bullishness remains discerning.

The NASDAQ and NAS100 have Force Vector support, but have not expressed enough energy to cross above NTI blue. Bullish unanimity remains absent along the near-term cycle, so remain guarded. This absence should be resolved within a day or two.

In a significant departure from normalcy is the VIX’s deepening bearish cycle. It is uncharacteristically falling well below the near-term green curve. Interestingly, this particular cycle has not been volatile. The VXX was up today even though the VIX was down.

This stock market remains confused with the bull and bear retorting noisily at each incursion of the other.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Index Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled one new bull and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for seven non-contrarian indices. They are up 1.1% since their bull signals an average of 0.6-weeks ago, annualizing at 101.2%. The remaining near-term bears, including contrarian VIX, are down by an average of 5.4% since their bear signals an average of 1.8-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled one new bull and no new bears.

These bull are up by an average of 1.3% since their bull signals an average of 1.0-weeks ago. They are annualized at 67.2%. The four remaining bears are down by an average of 5.4% since their bear signals 1.8-weeks ago. This includes contrarian VIX, which is down 32.3% since its bear signal on Nov 29, 2011.

Indicant Volume Indicators

No changes to this paragraph for several weeks. Both IVI’s sloped downward on recent bullishness, which suggests a lack of bullish inspiration. This is troubling. Adding to that concern is the NASDAQ’s IVI falling into low interest domains during the current near-term bull cycle. The NYSE recently did the same. Some of that, however, is due to seasonal volume. Recent bearish behavior has been more supported with volume than recent bullish behavior.

Dec 23-Fri-Low holiday volume on bullish behavior should always be viewed with a bit of suspicion. Only a few determine prices.

Dec 22-Thu-Well, the bailed out are spending your tax dollars on Christmas gifts for themselves and politicians who bailed them out and new evolving corrupt politicians. Today’s mild bearishness on empty volume means very little.

Dec 21-Wed-Flat volume on flat behavior, but with late-day bullishness, does not offer any inspiration to either bull or bear.

Dec 20-Tue-Average volume, coupled with strong bullish behavior, is interesting, but certainly not confirming more of the same.

Dec 19-Mon-Volume was below average on bearish behavior, offering nothing.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated four buy signals and one sell signal.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 14-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 1.0% since their buy signals an average of 0.9-weeks ago. That annualizes at 55.6%.

The NTI is avoiding 13-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 0.6% since their sell signals an average of 1.5-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated two buy signals and one sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 16-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 8.6% since their buy signals an average of 13.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 32.1%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 13-ETFs. They are up by an average of 0.4% since their QTI sell signals an average of 2.8-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Quick-term Indicant and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Dec 14, 2011, as Force fell below Pressure and into bearish domains. It is up 5.9% since those sell signals. Price is bouncing off QTI bearish yellow curve. Force crossed above Pressure this past Thursday, but price still remains below the near-term blue curve and thus no buy signal.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 93.8% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 30.5%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $151.86. QTI-Yellow has been flat, for the most part, the past two weeks for the first time in over three years. Relaxation remains inappropriate as price is nearing QTI Yellow, but it did bounce strongly north after a nearly contacting two weeks ago and continuing that this past week. Its Force is increasing but will consume quite a bit of energy before climbing above Pressure and into bullish domains. That energy consumption offers the gold bear a chance to pounce.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Dec 12, 2011, as price fell below NTI Green with declining Force in bearish domains. Dropping below Green did not trigger a bullish response, which has been common since late 2008, adding support to the near-term bearish pressure. It is down 3.5% since that sell signal.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received buy signals from the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant on Wednesday. Short-term attributes shifted in support of TLT’s bullishness. It is down 2.5% since those buy signals. The dollar is expected to continue strengthening and this ETF tends to parallel that.

ETF#31-QID received sell signals from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant this Friday, Dec 23, 2011, as Force crossed below Pressure and into bearish domains. That is too threatening to continue holding even though QQQ remains with an avoid signal.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 30, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 17.0% since those sell signals. Its Force Vector is not configured as contrarian, highlighting a confused stock market. It remains a Yellow Bear with declining Force. However, it should be noted that Force is at a common minimum point and nearing an absolute minimum.

Major ETF Events

Dec 23-Fri-Again more prices crossed above NTI Blue, triggering more buy signals along the near-term cycle. Due to proximity with QTI Yellow, the Quick-term Indicant also signaled buy.

Dec 22-Thu-More prices crossed above NTI Blue and bullish Force support. That triggered more buy signals.

Dec 21-Wed-Bull/bear divergence continues as the stock market remains without apparent desire to proceed in either direction. However, there were two more buy signals today for ETF’s.

Dec 20-Tue-Strong bullishness triggered three near-term buy signals as those three are the only ones enjoying supporting Force.

Dec 19-Mon-There are now no QTI Red Bulls, including contrarian ETF’s. This is favorable to the stock market bear.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Dec 23, 2011-The near-term bull cycle is displaying signs of overcoming the stock market bear. There is no unanimity, supporting this bull. There is little near-term support for the stock market bear. Set tight stop losses if you buy.

Reverse Tangential Projections

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past five weeks, the NASDAQ100 again toppled its 2007 peak eleven weeks ago along the Mid-term cycle. That was the fourth time it has done that this year. Each time it retreated. The NAS100 crossed above 2007’s cyclical peak again four weeks ago. That was the fifth time it has done that this year. It did not hold above that level. It was flat with its Oct 2007 peak two weeks ago, but up again this past week. That is the sixth time the NASDAQ crossed above its 2007 peak. This fluttering needs to be abandoned before the stock market bull can regain dominance.

It is increasingly apparent the heart and soul of bullish seasonality will be disappointing this year.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

12/25/2011

Dec 18, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 12, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

The Last Bearish Pre-Election Year Was 1939

The DJIA is up only 2.9% in this pre-election year. The NASDAQ is down 3.0% and the S&P500 is down 3.7% so far this year. The last bearish pre-election year was in 1939 just before World War II.

During the 1930’s FDR was exchanging letters with his pal, Mussolini. By the late 1930’s, FDR knew he needed a war to disguise his profound economic failures. He just was not sure whom the U.S. would fight. Eventually, FDR had to fight his pal, but the two never met on the battlefield.

Click this sentence to see what happens to the stock market when a failing incumbent president is re-elected to office. FDR’s second term started in 1937. During his first term, which began in 1933, he instituted several executive orders in his development of the New Deal. His ego assumed his three-pound brain could optimize all that exists better than 200,000,000-Americans could.

Unfortunately, his New Deal led to another recession in 1937. The problem with egomaniacs is they think they know what is best. Even if that were true, their little three pound brains are incapable of processing enough data to be accurate in their direction. Laissez-faire economics contains too much activity for any human being to understand.

Roosevelt did in fact recognize his policies were not working by the late 1930’s. He recognized war as a solution, as it would distract from his dismal failures as president and the economic stimulation for weaponry manufacturing.

The American populace elected FDR to his first term in late 1932. The Great Depression retained its grip on the world economy at that time, but the stock market found bottom before Roosevelt election. That suggested the economy was turning around, as Herbert Hoover was adjusting policies friendlier to business. Unfortunately, Hoover’s adjustments were applied too late, as the American voters wanted something different.

FDR catered to unions because its members had more votes than the executive wing at Ford, Chrysler, and GM. According to Alfred P. Sloan, GM’s CEO at that time, Roosevelt’s predecessor, Herbert Hoover, had adjusted policies friendlier to economic robustness. Sloan was confident that Hoover was doing the correct things to turn the economy around. Sloan knew much more about the economy than Hoover or FDR. The economy was starting to improve before Roosevelt took office and the DJIA enjoyed a bull market from late 1932 through 1936. As you can see from the chart by clicking this sentence, the DJIA was solidly bullish, more or less supporting Alfred P. Sloan’s claim of Hoover’s success.

Most simple-minded “if-then” liberal arts types, who do not know the difference between the first derivative and the second derivative in a simple calculus problem point out that FDR was president from 1933-1937 and therefore grant full credit to Roosevelt for that bull market. The 1932-1936 bull market originated prior to Roosevelt taking office, which occurred in March 1933. The 1929-1932 bear market found its bottom in the summer of 1932 or about nine months before Roosevelt took office. In essence, Roosevelt inherited a bull market. That bull market reflected the policies of Hoover, as opposed to Roosevelt.

Roosevelt’s New Deal was in full swing by 1937, when he started his second term as president. Just as he settled into his second term, a new recession he caused got underway. The Dow fell very quickly by nearly 50%. After that sudden and dramatic drop, the stock market was herky-jerky throughout the remainder of Roosevelt’s presidency, as the New Deal’s waste, fraud, and abuse continued unabated.

The stock market did not eclipse its 1937 peak until 1949 well after Roosevelt’s death in 1945. He clearly directed 12-years of stock market bearishness and economic misery. Although unclear, his foreign policies did not deter war, as he needed it to disguise his failures. There is considerable evidence of his antagonistic foreign policies during his tenure as president.

Three of Roosevelt’s four presidential terms were stock market bears. Mothers and fathers who repeatedly voted for Roosevelt lived miserable lives during Roosevelt’s presidency. In their later years, many of them had to bury their children he had sent off to war. The American voter deserved their plight and hardship, as they continued to vote for him. He commanded the radio waves and the American public was duped.

Historians, for the most part, cannot correlate predecessor events to current events and successor results. Many proclaim Roosevelt as being great president. He was not. You just read about his record.

Politicians have absolutely nothing to do with economic activity. However, most of them cannot accept that fact. So, they tinker and interfere with it, which always results in a destructive consequence. As stated many times in this report, the only positive economic contribution by politicians is to undo their prior damage. Many elements of FDR’s New Deal remain. Undoing them would help the economy.

The NASDAQ endured its fifth failure at holding above its 2007 peaks. It closed this past week, flat with its Oct 2007 peak. That does not bode well for the stock market bull. Europe remains in trouble and their plight is expected to worsen. After all, their political leaders are trying to straighten out their mess. All they have to do is undo their prior damage. But in doing so, they give up their power and sensation of importance. That will probably not happen until their economic infrastructure collapses. That is usually when nonsensical behavior is abandoned.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

NAS#57-FSLR was down 30.0% last week, as the NASDAQ100’s biggest loser, fulfilling its downward spiral. It is down 69.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell this past August. These green oriented companies, by being public, is distracting from their focus. They need to focus on generating cash from within as opposed to hoping politicians will line their pockets.

NAS#77-VRTX was the biggest gainer in the NAS100 group of stocks. It is oscillating around MTI Yellow. It was up 15.5% last week and up 8.0% since the MTI sell signal five weeks ago. Its Force Vector remains in bearish domains and thus no buy signal can be generated.

ISTK#17-BVSN was up 21.9%, as ISTK’s biggest gainer. Every now and then money is directed at a dog and this stock is a dog of a stock. It is down 76.9% since the MTI signaled sell in January 2008. As you can see from its chart, it continues moving south in its secular decline.

ISTK#38-ENER was the biggest loser in the ISTK group, being down 41.4%. although these fuel cell stocks were highly touted about ten years ago by Wall Street, you can see it has been trending bearishly since late 2007. It is down 99.4% since the MTI signaled sell in Oct 2008.

DJIA#17-CAT was the Dow Industrials biggest loser. It was down 9.1% this past week. However, this is a good company and it is up 82.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy in August 2009. Its Force Vector is moving south and it could be in a bit of short-term trouble.

The Dow Industrials largest gainer was DJIA#23-PFE, which was up by a paltry 2.3%. It is up by a disappointing 18.5% since the MTI signaled buy in October 2010. So far, this stock does not appear to be threatened by short-term bearishness.

DJU#07-PCG was up 4.6%, as the Dow Utilities biggest gainer. It is up 2.5% since the MTI signaled sell four weeks ago. It got a classical bullish bounce after falling below MTI-Yellow a few weeks ago. Do not buy this stock.

Utilities biggest loser was DJU#14-CNP, which was down 3.1%. However, it is up by 48.5% since the MTI buy signal in October 2009. It is a solid Red Bull and holding continues to be profitable.

Contrarian MF#22-USPIX was up 7.1%, as the biggest gainer among the mutual funds tracked by the Indicant. It again is threatening with a buy signal as its Force is now in bullish domains and its price is above MTI-Blue. It is down, however, by 78.2% since the MTI sell signal in April 2009.

Mutual Fund’s biggest loser was MF#19-VGPMX. It was down 16.3%, prompting a disappointing sell signal for that fund. Gold is in fundamental trouble. Gold may not be the preferred escape to security in the event of a European collapse. Some argue the chase will be to U.S. dollars, which would be inflationary, but in contrarian fashion could depress the value of gold.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and ten-sell signals. The 110-buy signals in the past nine weeks and forty-six sell signals the past four weekends illustrate an unusual bull-bear battle during the middle section of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 231 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 55.4%. That annualizes to 35.9%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 231-stocks and funds for an average of 80.2-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 82-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 19.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 47.5-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Dec 17, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 291-stocks and funds out of 338-tracked for an average of 46.2-weeks. They were up by an average of 42.5% (annualized at 47.9%). There were 46-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 51.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 122.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 208-stocks and funds of the 317-tracked two years ago on Dec 18, 2009. They were up by an average of 27.1%, annualized at 49.8%, since their respective buy signals an average of 28.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 109-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 40.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 90.0-weeks earlier. There were no-buy signals, while there were 178-buy signals in the prior 21-weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2009.

There were only 29-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 344-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Dec 12, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 44.5-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 64.9% (annualized at 75.8%). There were 313-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 35.3% from their respective sell signals an average of 29.6-weeks earlier. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2008 while there were 570-sell signals in the prior 57-weeks, as the bear market was nearing its ultimate depth, but still incomplete in its final destruction. There were only two buy signals on this weekend in 2008 even with the weighted influence to do so with the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

On Dec 14, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 227-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 154.3% (annualized at 60.3%) since their buy signals an average of 133.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 109-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 9.1% since their sell signals an average of 16.3-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and eight sell signals on this weekend in 2007 in addition to 77-sell signals in the prior seven weeks. The 2003-Mid-term bull cycle was past its peak at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies. A huge number of sell signals continued for the next several months as the bear market gained momentum throughout most of 2008, through early 2009.

Five years ago, on Dec 15, 2006, there were 312-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 344 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 107.7% (annualized at 65.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 86.1-weeks earlier. There were 31-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 12.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 19.7-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid, for the most, part in 2006.

On Dec 16, 2005, there were 270-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 98.0%, annualizing at 61.0%, since their respective buy signals an average of 83.5-weeks earlier. There were 48-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 15.8% since their sell signals an average of 28.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two sell signal on this weekend in 2005.

There were 298-stocks and funds with hold signals on Dec 17, 2004. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 320-stocks and funds since then. They were up by an average of 70.8%, annualizing at 65.3%, since their buy signals 56.4-weeks earlier. The 16-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 40.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 58.0-weeks earlier. There were four buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2004. The 2004-meandering bear market that pestered throughout most of 2004 was giving way to the heart and soul of bullish seasonality at this time in 2004.

On Dec 19, 2003, there were 277-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 55.4% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 34.7-weeks earlier. That annualized at 83.1%. There were only 10-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 26.6% since their sell signals an average of 34.7-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were six-buy signals in addition to 420-buy signals in the prior 39-weeks. The 2003 bull market was 42-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Dec 20, 2002, there were 275-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 16.0% since their buy signals an average of 12.4-weeks earlier, annualizing at 67.3%. There were only ten-stocks and funds avoided since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 22.7-weeks earlier. The avoided stocks and funds were down 27.5%. There were two-buy signals in addition to 510-buy signals in the prior 21-weeks. Although the stock market bear remained in effect, it weakness was maturing in favor of the stock market bull. Some of the Aug. 2002-buy signals retained hold signals through late 2007 and early 2008, while others endured sell signals before the conclusion of calendar year 2002 and in early 2003. Energy related buy signals in Aug 2002, however, held strongly through the December 2002-record-bear for December and lasted until late 2008. There were four sell signals on this weekend in 2002.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Bull and Bear Signals This Weekend

The Mid-term cycle weakened a bit from last week, favoring the stock market bear. Therefore, there was an uptick in sell signals and no buy signals.

Several new yellow bears manifested last week and the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear for the S&P400 and S&P600 indices. Although the indices are not yellow bears, their short-term attributes are increasingly bearish. That coupled with short-term bear signals favors the stock market bear.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 62.9% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 129.4% and the S&P500 is up 57.0% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 136.5% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months. Configurations shifted in support of normal pre-election year bullishness six weeks ago. However, it is increasingly obvious the heart and soul of bullish seasonality may not manifest its normal bullishness in this pre-election year which is the most bullish of all the political years along the four year cycle.

The NASDAQ is down 49.4% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 20.2% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up and by 1.2% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish the last eleven years. Technically, one could call that a secular bear; albeit a mild one.

The Dow has stumbled three times when encountering its 2000 peak value. Will it do that again? Well, it is again above its 2000 peak for the fourth time this century for the second consecutive week in this attempt to hold above that level. The S&P500 topped its 2000 peak for a few brief weeks in 2007. The NASDAQ has never come close, as its prior peak price was hype driven. The DOTCOM sector does not perform agriculture, manufacture, or extract. Therefore, most companies within that index created no wealth. It remains appropriately bearish relative to the 2000 phony peak prices.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 20.9% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality manifested early in the cycle, but floundered at the approach of the Santa Claus rally.

The NASDAQ was down by 28.2% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 44.1%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by a paltry 7.1% from that year’s meandering bear market, but finished 2004 up by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was up 3.5% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up by 11.4% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.1%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 9.1% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline. The 2008-bear was already underway at this time of year in 2007.

The NASDAQ was down by 40.1% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 39.9% on this weekend in 2009 and finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 16.2% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is up 2.5% this year. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are down 3.0% and 3.7%, respectively, this year. As you can see, the stock market bull has been shying away from the idea that historical standards of stock market bullishness should repeat this year.

The Dow is down 16.2% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 10.6% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 22.1% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. This coincides with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007.

Eclipsing and holding above 2007 cyclical peaks remains elusive. As of this past weekend, all major indices are below their 2007 peaks with the exception of the NASDAQ100, which is flat with its Oct 31, 2007 peak. They continue expressing difficulty justifying an escape from those 2007-peak prices.

Several indices have never challenged those peak prices. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 24.1% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. As you can see from recent stock market behavior, suspicions about the 2009-2011 bull leg had merit. It still does. The reason for those suspicions was near maximal incongruence between political leadership and the underlying principles of capital markets. The Dec 12, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow is up 81.2% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 101.4% and the S&P500 is up 80.3% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 122.1% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Such a successor bear cycle may now be underway, although not expected to continue as Washington DC has a propensity to stalemate during presidential pre-election years. This is especially true when the president is unpopular. Both of those conditions persist and favorable to the stock market bull, but polls are suggesting it is too close to inspire the stock market bull. That, coupled with European weakness, confronts the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. They have been yielding zero for the past 19-weeks.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 48-weeks ago. It lost Red Bull status 13-weeks ago with a continuing sharp drop against the greenback. You can see it has a triple camelback with negative (bearish) trend.

The Canadian dollar but remains within the tolerances of its weakening cycle. It is more solidly resuming a cycle of weakness. The CA$ moved in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) 14-weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull (bearish for the CA$), which threatens its cycle of strengthening. The Japanese Yen continue strengthening, although bearish last week. The Japanese yen remains extraordinarily strong due to that country’s superior management in the private sector.

Gold’s optimistic 2012 forecast has been elevated to $1800/oz. As you can see, it is no longer a Red Bull. Despite solid bearish behavior in eight of the past 12-weeks, it continues trading well above the 2012 yearend forecast curve. The $2,000/oz.-forecast by 2014 remains challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains intact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild, but with deepening bearish bias. It fell below yellow 18-weeks ago on souring economic news, but rebounded the seven weeks ago. Despite periodic days of depressed behavior, it is holding up well. It escaped Yellow Bear status, as expected. It is now in the neutral zone.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures fell prey to bearish economic pressures the past few weeks. It is approaching Yellow Bear status, but it continues resisting that condition with a strong rebound in two of the last four weeks. It fell last week on the U.S. strengthening behavior.

Commodity prices, overall, are favoring potential for a bearish cycle. If it manifests, some elements of inflationary threats will be dampened.

Mortgage rates are moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011. They continue along a bearish cycle.

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing unfavorable results. Inflationary threats are now being computed. However, the combined absolute value of interest rates and inflation or deflation remains relatively safe at this time.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and currently non-threatening toward inflation or deflation.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, but had to signal sell this past weekend for a disappoint loss of around 15%. Gold price fell, but this particular fund plummeted with gold’s bearishness last week.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 also received an MTI sell signal this weekend.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It received a buy signal on Oct 28, 2011 after missing an 18% opportunity due to rapid bullishness ahead of Force Vector justification to signal buy. It is down 15.0% since that buy signal. Its proximity to MTI Yellow prevented a sell signal even though Force is in bearish domains. The problem with Vanguard is the number of restrictions on trades.

The Near-term and Quick-term signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Dec 14, 2011. It is up by 0.2% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. It was up over 25.0%, annualized at 29.0% from its Quick-term buy signal on Sep 15, 2010 and the Quick-term sell signal on Aug 8, 2011. It was down slightly between the Dec 1, 2011 buy signal and the sell signal on Dec 14, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 92.5% since that buy signal, annualizing at 30.3%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy on Jul 6, 2011. It was up about 10% until the NTI signaled sell on Sep 23, 2011. It was flat since that sell signal and its most recent buy signal on Oct 26, 2011. It was down slightly from that Oct 26, 2011 buy signal until the sell signal on Dec 12, 2011. It is now down 4.2% since that Dec 12, 2011 sell signal.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and two new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for four of the major indices. They are up by an average of 4.3%, since their bull signals an average of 22.2-weeks ago. The four bears are up by an average of 5.0% since their bear signals three weeks ago. They did not receive bull signals the past three weeks because their Force Vectors have not crossed above Pressure and/or into bullish domains. The two new bears are the S&P400 and S&P600 indices.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $30,161,465. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,805.323 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $132,633. That beats buy and hold’s $119,469 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $208,835. That beats buy and hold’s $88,604 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,570.7%, 11.0%, and 135.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 79.6% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 309.9% (annualized at 15.3%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,050-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report – Summary

The VIX is configuring in favor of non-bearishness. That does not mean it is about to become bullish and it can retain bearish configurations, but not deep diving performance. This, in part, is influencing the predominant bear signals.

The Dow Transport Index is threatening bearish bias. Its Force Vector configured as if it bottomed. Nearly all non-contrarian Force Vectors are cyclically mature, suggesting potential non-bearishness. That reversal process occurs at one index first. Maybe the DJT is it.

ETF#11-GLD bounced nicely off QTI-Yellow this Friday after a near-miss. Gold’s Force Vector is maturing, which should discourage the gold bear.

Remaining is a confused stock market. Contrarian and non-contrarian securities and major indices remain with a smorgasbord of bullish and bearish attributes.

This week’s bearishness triggered a few Mid-term Bear signals and sell signals. That is unfavorable to those desiring the normalcy of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Index Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for only one of the non-contrarian indices. It is the Dow Jones Utilities, which is down 0.4%, since its bull signal 2.1-weeks ago. The remaining major indices are bears along the near-term cycle. They include contrarian VIX. Combined, they are down 0.9% since their near-term bear signals 0.5-weeks ago. Contrarian VIX is down 20.7% since its bear signal on Nov 29, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

The DJIA retained its bull signal. So, at this time, the stock market is without directional intensity. Two major indices (DJIA and DJU) are Quick-term Bulls. They are down 0.9% since their QTI Bull signals 2.1-weeks ago. The remaining major indices, including contrarian VIX, are down 0.9% since their bear signals an average of 0.5-weeks ago. Contrarian VIX is down 20.7% since its QTI Bear signal on Nov 29, 2011.

Indicant Volume Indicators

Both IVI’s sloped downward on recent bullishness, which suggests a lack of bullish inspiration. This is troubling. Adding to that concern is the NASDAQ’s IVI falling into low interest domains during the current near-term bull cycle. The NYSE recently did the same. Some of that, however, is due to seasonal volume.

Dec 16-Fri-Aggressive volume on flat behavior on an options expiration Friday means nothing.

Dec 15-Thu-Volume was below average today, offering no inspiration to the bull.

Dec 14-Wed-Volume was again a little above recent averages on bearish aggression, adding support to the stock market bear.

Dec 13-Tue-Volume was a little above average on bearish behavior, offering mild support to bearish ambition.

Dec 12-Mon-Volume on bearish aggression was about same as last Friday’s on bullish aggression. The stock market is not getting much support for its popcorn behavior, while continuing to do so.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no-sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for five-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 0.6% since their buy signals an average of 1.4-weeks ago.

The NTI is avoiding 27-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 0.2% since their sell signals an average of 0.4-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for eleven-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 9.5% since their buy signals an average of 19.2-weeks ago. This annualizes at 25.6%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 21-ETFs. They are down 0.6% since the QTI sell signals an average of 1.4-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Quick-term Indicant and Near-term Indicant signaled sell this past Wednesday, as Force fell below Pressure and into bearish domains. It is up 0.2% since that sell signal. Force continues to decrease.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 92.5% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 30.3%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $151.83. QTI-Yellow was flat today for the first time in over three years. Relaxation remains inappropriate as price is nearing QTI Yellow, but it did bounce strongly north today after a near-miss yesterday.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell this past Tuesday, as price fell below NTI Green with declining Force in bearish domains. Dropping below Green did not trigger a bullish response, which has been common since late 2008, adding support to the near-term bearish pressure. It is down 4.2% since that sell signal.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received buy signals from the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant on Wednesday. Short-term attributes shifted in support of TLT’s bullishness. It is up 0.8% since those buy signals, annualizing at 142.4%.

ETF#31-QID received a buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant on Wednesday as Force crossed into bullish domains and above Vector Pressure. It is down 0.3% since those buy signals.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 30, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 6.7% since those sell signals. Its Force Vector is not configured as contrarian, highlighting a confused stock market.

Major ETF Events

Dec 16-Fri-None

Dec 15-Thu-The Near-term Indicant signaled bear along, while the DJIA Quick-term Indicant retained a bull signal.

Dec 14-Wed-There were several more sell signals, as prices fell below NTI Blue in conjunction with Force falling below Pressure and into bearish domains.

Dec 13-Tue-There were two more Near-term sell signals, in addition to more threatening Quick-term sell signals. Some Force Vectors fell into bearish domains.

Dec 12-Mon-Some near-term sell signals were triggered today for ETF’s, while the major indices did not incur bear signals. The VIX and Gold were not contrarian today, suggesting stock market confusion.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Dec 16, 2011-The near-term bull cycle is under attack by bearish force. Do not buy any equity at this time. The stock market is enduring bearish convergence along the near-term cycle. Force Vector are increasingly in support of near-term bearishness. Most prices are above QTI Bearish Yellow, offering a source of potential resistance to stock market bearishness. Interaction with QTI Yellow will be interesting.

Reverse Tangential Projections

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past four weeks, the NASDAQ100 again toppled its 2007 peak ten weeks ago along the Mid-term cycle. That was the fourth time it has done that this year. Each time it retreated. The NAS100 crossed above 2007’s cyclical peak again three weeks ago. That was the fifth time it has done that this year. It did not hold above that level. It is now flat with its Oct 2007 peak.

It is increasingly apparent the heart and soul of bullish seasonality will be disappointing this year.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

12/18/2011

Dec 11, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 12, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

NASDAQ100 Held above Oct 2007-Peak, but

The other major indices tracked by the Mid-term Indicant continue in their struggle to climb above their 2007-peak prices. The problem is that shortly after the democrats took control of congress in the 2006 mid-term elections, George W. Bush responded to the left-leaning populace, “I hear you.” He then proceeded to support the socialistic agenda, promulgated by the democrats. George W. forgot that the United States is a Republic, designed to guard against periodic stupidity by the populace.

You can view all of the major indices by clicking this sentence. Scroll down to the second table on that page and then click the links to their charts on the right hand side of the page.

That one little comment by George W. Bush in late 2006 set forth a relatively long period of socialistic programs in the United States. Productivity increases in the private sector usually catch up and help pay for “creeping socialism.” However, productivity increases always lag dynamic expansions in socialism. With that, debt swells, leading to social unrest. The 1930’s and early 1940’s demonstrate dynamic socialistic inclusions into economic activity. Productivity could not catch up to the damage created by politicians during that era.

It takes a lot of effort and precise thinking and action to generate productivity increases. Expanding socialism takes very little skill and, unfortunately, it can occur very quickly. All one has to do is to promise the populace something for nothing. With that, socialistic causes gain in excessive popularity. Most do not understand the yang follow-on to the yin input. It is indeed unpleasant. You have been witnessing that phenomenon since late 2006 when George W. Bush said, “I hear you,” in response to losing the Senate and House to the democrats. The stock market peaked the next year.

Unfortunately, universal law holds that getting something cannot be successor to giving nothing. The populace now pays the price for their socialistic leanings in the 2006-elections. The so-called shrinking middle class with all their hardships have only themselves to blame. They are the majority and look at how they vote. They deserve their plight, just as several generations of Russians endured last century. What some miss is that there is absolutely nothing that is free, regardless of the nature of the transaction. The trick is to avoid compound interest on the “free stuff.” Dividing by zero produces a huge number and therein lies the compounding effect. Three to five generations of Russians and other communistic European cultures paid compound interest by living in poverty. At first, it sounded like a good idea (yin input) and later, the declining quality of life (yang output) was invoked. All free accumulation were found to not be free. That errant thinking and behavior stokes misery and when massive, the misery is massive plus some.

The Republic element works both ways, however. The current president is a socialist. He has the exact same powers that George W. Bush had. He can stifle any legislative attempts that stoke capitalistic endeavors. Recent bearish dominance correlates with the increasing rhetoric directing the middle class to vote for more of the same. Unfortunately, the middle class may not see through the ruse. Massive political scamming is not a bullish attribute.

The democracy of the United States is in decay. The culmination of politicians who have served in Congress and the White House have generated over $100-trillion in unfunded debt. Until that debt reverses direction, one, among the rational, cannot argue the democracy is not in decay.

The major indices will do more than just keeping you posted on the stock market. If they prove to be unable to cross above their 2007-peaks and escape those levels, the message will be clear. The massive and dynamic socialistic causes originating in 2007 are so overbearing, relative to productivity gains, the secular bear originating in 2007 may require generations of productivity gains to pay for it. Unfortunately, productivity gains have never manifested from societies absent of capitalists. The concern should not be about the shrinking middle class. The concern should be addressing the potential reduction of the entrepreneurial class.

The Oct 4, 2009-Weekly Stock Market Report discussed an M-Shaped economy in response to pundit discussions regarding V-Shaped and W-Shaped economies and/or stock markets at that time. The stock market clearly identifies such M-shapes over very long secular cycles, while the V and W shapes are classically associated with shorter cycles.

Over the weekend, several such shorter M-cycles were observed while scanning through Mutual Funds. It may take a little imagination to see the M in some cases. The first leg of the M reflects the final phases of the 1990’s stock market bull. The second M-leg reflects the 2000-2002 stock market bear. The third leg clearly displays the 2003-2007 stock market bull. The 2007-2008 stock market bear completes the M-shape. The question is and cannot be answered at this time, is a new M-shape being formed?

To see one example of this M-shape, look at MF#79-VQNPX-Vanguard Growth and Income Fund. That is an interesting combination of large and small caps. That combination has been unable to escape the two bearish legs on the M-cycle. Not meaning to be an alarmist here, but a new M-cycle could be manifesting. The source of such a manifestation was discussed, in part, in the Oct 4, 2009 Weekly Stock Market Report.

A new bull leg for this particular fund formed in the 2009-2011 bull leg. It has been bearish the past few months with a potential for the second M-leg along a hypothetical bear cycle. A solid bear cycle is required for the second leg of an M-shaped cycle. You will notice MF#79 has not gotten close to its 2007-peak. It resembles the weakest index, S&P100, with that specific attribute. It formed the first M-leg in the 2009-2011bull cycle and appears to be forming the second M-leg with recent stock market bearishness.

Other funds are similarly configured, such as MF#’s 85, 86, and 87, all of which, are on the same page and can be seen by clicking this sentence. There are three other funds on this page that do not have a noticeable M-shaped configuration. Those that do are enduring a bear cycle, following the first leg on the M from the 2009-2011 bull leg.

This is not projecting a new M-cycle. It is pointing its potential. Political polling will be influential on the stock market. If socialistic support appears electable, the stock market bear will continue pestering and possibly dominate.

Regardless of V, W, or M-shapes, the Mid-term Indicant will signal bull/buy or sell/bear when the model justifies it. Those alphabet soups are not in the model but worthy of periodic review and especially so if the major indices and good mutual funds continue drifting below 2007 peaks.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

NAS#51-ORLY-Oreilly Automotive was the NASDAQ100’s biggest winner last week. It was up by a paltry 5.2% during last week’s volatile stock market with somewhat of a flat conclusion to the week. This stock is up 122.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy in April 2009. As you can see from its chart, it is a solid and steady bull. It has been a Red Bull for over two years and void of any bearish threats.

NAS#78-NIHD-NII-Holdings was down 10.0% last week as the NAS100’s biggest loser. This stock is down 44.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell this past August. As you can see from its chart, it has been bearish since late 2007. It is nowhere nearing a buy signal.

ISTK#11-ARBA-Ariba was up 17.0%, as last week’s biggest gainer among the Indicant Select Stock group. It is up 230.7% since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal in July 2009. Although it has been flat with some nervousness the past year, its annualized performance since the last MTI buy signal is at 96.5%. It is doing a good job clinging to Red Bull status.

ISTK#18-EK-Eastman Kodak has been appearing in this section at least once a month for several months. It was this group’s worse performer again last week. It was down 13.2% last week and down 96.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in November 2007 ahead of the great bear market of 2008. The weak are victimized more severely in bear markets and this is no exception. This company has been infested by dilettantes for several generations. It is in its final generation. It is a Yellow Bear and with an usual Red implosion (Red below Yellow).

DOW#02-GE-General Electric was the DJIA’s biggest gainer. Even a dog has a good week every now and then. It was up a whopping 4.7% last week. It was whopping because that is a huge move for this dog of a stock. One of the more proficient dilettantes runs it. The CEO’s annual salary is excessive for someone who is more of a Washington DC lobbyist. Most of us work about 80-hours a week for our employer, while this fellow probably works less than 10-hours a week for GE and probably on the wrong things. This stock is up 7.6% since the MTI signaled sell a few weeks ago. Its Force Vector is in bearish domains and no buy signal will be generated, as recent buys had to be reversed to sells.

DOW#21-DD-Dupont was the DJIA’s biggest loser last week. It was down 4.2% last week, but it is up 28.8%, annualized at 16.1%, since the Mid-term Indicant’s last buy signal in March 2010. This company has also been dilettante infested for several generations, but from time to time, a brilliant scientist can develop a new product that generates significant earnings potential. Most of the time, this brilliance is acquired from outside the company through acquisitions, as opposed to internal lazy employees. Although this stock is enduring a ten-year bearish trend, its recovery since early 2009 is among the most impressive. As you can see, the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy a little slow on the MTI-Yellow curve. Since then and even before, its growth has been impressive.

The Dow Utility’s big winner last week was DJU#08-NEE-NextEra Energy was up 3.1%. It is up 22.6% since the MTI buy signal in March 2010, annualizing at 13.1%. This stock has been enjoying a long and steady bullish trend for over ten years. In hindsight, the very long-term minded investor would have held this stock even during the 2002 and 2008 bear markets. This stock was a Yellow Bear for very short periods during the 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 bear markets. This company pays a nice dividend and is located in the sunbelt, where real estate is not as depressed as northern real estate. Although it is a utility, understanding local demographics has some merit before investing.

DJU#11-WMB-Williams Companies was down 2.2%, as the Dow Utilities worse performer. It is up, however, by 60.5% since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal in October 2010. That annualizes at 51.0%, outperforming gold over the same period. If all Federal energy-related laws were voided and thrown into a fire, this companies stock would skyrocket. Last week’s bearish behavior was due to trader-fun, as opposed to fundamentals.

MF#55-FSCSX-Fidelity Select Software Group was up 2.4% last week. That was the Indicant Fund’s list biggest gainer this past week. This fund has been enjoying a long-term bullish trend for the past 20-years, but a mildly bearish trend the past 12-years. It is up, however, by 42.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy in July 2010. That annualizes at 17.9%. This fund endures some significant volatile behavior from time to time. It is a solid Red Bull and under no immediate bearish threat.

Indicant Mutual Fund’s biggest loser last week was MF#44-FSPHX-Fidelity Healthcare Select. It was down by a significant 8.9% last week. To minimize mutual fund trade signals, the slow moving MTI-Yellow is most commonly used to trigger a buy or sell signal. It is in a bit of trouble with Force in bearish domains and moving south with declining Green and a collapsed Blue curve. Despite that, the next sell signal will occur at the MTI-Yellow Curve, which is rising and above the buy price. It is up 18.1% since the MTI buy signal in September 2009. Although disappointing, it is annualizing at 8.0%, bettering inflation, albeit mildly so, depending on how you spend your money. This fund has completed the M-cycle and appears to be starting a new one. It was bullish from late 1990’s until a bear leg in early 2000. A new bull leg manifested with the 2003-2005 stock market bull and then collapsed in the 2007-2008 stock market bear. It has been solidly bearish since mid-2010.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated one-buy signal and no-sell signals. The 110-buy signals in the past nine weeks and forty-five sell signals the past four weekends illustrate an unusual bull-bear battle during the middle section of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 240 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 58.9%. That annualizes to 38.8%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 240-stocks and funds for an average of 78.8-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 82-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 17.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 46.5-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Dec 10, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 290-stocks and funds out of 338-tracked for an average of 45.8-weeks. They were up by an average of 42.3% (annualized at 48.0%). There were 47-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 51.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 121.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 201-stocks and funds of the 317-tracked two years ago on Dec 11, 2009. They were up by an average of 27.9%, annualized at 51.5%, since their respective buy signals an average of 28.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 109-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 40.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 89.0-weeks earlier. There were 7-buy signals, while there were 171-buy signals in the prior 20-weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2009.

There were only 27-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 344-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Dec 5, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 45.8-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 71.7% (annualized at 81.3%). There were 315-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 36.5% from their respective sell signals an average of 28.5-weeks earlier. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2008 while there were 570-sell signals in the prior 56-weeks, as the bear market was nearing its ultimate depth, but still incomplete in its final destruction. There were only two buy signals on this weekend in 2008 even with the weighted influence to do so with the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

On Dec 7, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 235-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 157.9% (annualized at 62.5%) since their buy signals an average of 131.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 109-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 5.2% since their sell signals an average of 15.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2007 in addition to 76-sell signals in the prior six weeks. The 2003-Mid-term bull cycle was past its peak at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies. A huge number of sell signals continued for the next several months as the bear market gained momentum throughout most of 2008, through early 2009.

Five years ago, on Dec 8, 2006, there were 311-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 344 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 108.0% (annualized at 65.8%) since their respective buy signals an average of 85.3-weeks earlier. There were 33-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 11.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 19.1-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid, for the most, part in 2006.

On Dec 9, 2005, there were 268-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 92.7%, annualizing at 58.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 82.1-weeks earlier. There were 47-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 16.2% since their sell signals an average of 27.7-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2005.

There were 300-stocks and funds with hold signals on Dec 3, 2004. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 320-stocks and funds since then. They were up by an average of 68.6%, annualizing at 64.6%, since their buy signals 55.2-weeks earlier. The 17-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 43.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 57.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2004. The 2004-meandering bear market that pestered throughout most of 2004 was giving way to the heart and soul of bullish seasonality at this time in 2004.

On Dec 12, 2003, there were 279-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 53.1% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 33.5-weeks earlier. That annualized at 82.6%. There were only 15-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 25.1% since their sell signals an average of 33.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were two-buy signals in addition to 418-buy signals in the prior 38-weeks. The 2003 bull market was 41-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Dec 13, 2002, there were 286-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 14.8% since their buy signals an average of 11.5-weeks earlier, annualizing at 67.4%. There were eight-stocks and funds avoided since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 23.0-weeks earlier. The avoided stocks and funds were down 27.3%. There was one-buy signal in addition to 509-buy signals in the prior 20-weeks. Although the stock market bear remained in effect, it weakness was maturing in favor of the stock market bull. Some of the Aug. 2002-buy signals retained hold signals through late 2007 and early 2008, while others endured sell signals before the conclusion of calendar year 2002 and in early 2003. Energy related buy signals in Aug 2002, however, held strongly through the December 2002-record-bear for December and lasted until late 2008. There were four sell signals on this weekend in 2002.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Bull and Bear Signals This Weekend

The Mid-term cycle remained unchanged from last week. Therefore, there was only one buy signal, where a tight stop loss is recommended. Although last week’s stock market behavior was volatile, the week concluded with the bull and bear neutralizing one another.

Although mid-term cyclical attributes remain in support of the stock market bull, the stock market bear is threatening the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 67.2% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 137.6% and the S&P500 is up 61.6% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 142.8% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months. Configurations shifted in support of normal pre-election year bullishness five weeks ago. It was challenged by the stock market bear three weeks ago, but the stock market bull counter-punched the stock market bear the past two weeks. So far, this year’s heart and soul of bullish seasonality is performing poorly.

The NASDAQ is down 47.6% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 17.8% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is again up and by 3.9% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish the last eleven years. Technically, one could call that a secular bear; albeit a mild one.

The Dow has stumbled three times when encountering its 2000 peak value. Will it do that again? Well, it is again above its 2000 peak for the fourth time this century. The S&P500 topped its 2000 peak for a few brief weeks in 2007. The NASDAQ has never come close, as its prior peak price was hype driven. The DOTCOM sector does not perform agriculture, manufacture, or extract. Therefore, most companies within that index created no wealth. It remains appropriately bearish relative to the 2000 phony peak prices.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 18.2% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality manifested early in the cycle, but floundered at the approach of the Santa Claus rally.

The NASDAQ was down by 29.9% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 42.9%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by a paltry 6.3% from that year’s meandering bear market, but finished 2004 up by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was up 3.7% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up by 10.5% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 12.0% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline. The 2008-bear was already underway at this time of year in 2007.

The NASDAQ was down by 41.7% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 38.5% on this weekend in 2009 and finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 15.3% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is up 5.2% this year. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are both down 0.2% this year. As you can see, the stock market bull has been shying away from the idea that historical standards of stock market bullishness should repeat this year, but again attempting to conform to historical standards, albeit in pathetic fashion.

The Dow is down 14.0% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 7.4% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 19.8% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. This coincides with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007.

Eclipsing and holding above 2007 cyclical peaks remains elusive. As of this past weekend, all major indices are below their 2007 peaks with the exception of the NASDAQ100. They continue expressing difficulty justifying an escape from those 2007-peak prices.

Several indices have never challenged those peak prices. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 22.1% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. As you can see from recent stock market behavior, suspicions about the 2009-2011 bull leg had merit. It still does. The reason for those suspicions was near maximal incongruence between political leadership and the underlying principles of capital markets. The Dec 12, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The NASDAQ100 catapulted above its 2007 peak along the Mid-term cycle this past week. It is the only major index conquering that configuration. It is now 3.6% above that weekly closing peak on Oct 31, 2007. This is the fifth time since early 2011 that it has crossed above its 2007-peak. It will be interesting to see if it can hold above that level during the upcoming election year. Historical standards favor that.

The Dow is up 86.1% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 108.6% and the S&P500 is up 85.5% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 128.0% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Such a successor bear cycle may now be underway, although not expected to continue as Washington DC has a propensity to stalemate during presidential pre-election years. This is especially true when the president is unpopular. Both of those conditions persist and favorable to the stock market bull, but polls are suggesting it is too close to inspire the stock market bull. That, coupled with European weakness, confronts the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. They have been yielding zero for the past 18-weeks.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 47-weeks ago. It lost Red Bull status 12-weeks ago with a continuing sharp drop against the greenback. You can see it has a triple camelback with negative (bearish) trend.

The Canadian dollar but remains within the tolerances of its weakening cycle. It is more solidly resuming a cycle of weakness. The CA$ moved in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) 13-weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull (bearish for the CA$), which threatens its cycle of strengthening. The Japanese Yen continued its strengthening cycle. The Japanese yen remains extraordinarily strong due to that country’s superior management in the private sector.

Gold’s optimistic 2012 forecast has been elevated to $1800/oz. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. Despite solid bearish behavior in seven of the past eleven weeks, it continues trading well above the 2012 yearend forecast curve. The $2,000/oz.-forecast by 2014 remains challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains intact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild, but with deepening bearish bias. It fell below yellow 18-weeks ago on souring economic news, but rebounded the seven weeks ago. Despite periodic days of depressed behavior, it is holding up well. It escaped Yellow Bear status, as expected. It is now in the neutral zone.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures fell prey to bearish economic pressures the past few weeks. It is approaching Yellow Bear status, but it continues resisting that condition with a strong rebound in two of the last four weeks. It fell last week on the U.S. strengthening behavior.

Commodity prices, overall, are favoring potential for a bearish cycle. If it manifests, some elements of inflationary threats will be dampened.

Mortgage rates are moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011. They continue along a bearish cycle.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and currently non-threatening toward inflation or deflation.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 2.8% since then, annualizing at 2.3%. Gold has demonstrated lackluster performance the past several weeks.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received an MTI buy signal on Jul 22, 2011. It is down 8.5% since that buy signal. If Force falls into bearish domains, it will receive a sell signal. It resisted that the past three weeks, offering some mild hope for the gold bull.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 28, 2011 after missing about 20% of opportunity. It is down 4.9% since that buy signal but resisting configurations supporting a sell signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 25, 2011. It will receive a buy signal once Force Vectors shift north. It was up over 14% two weeks ago, but down a few percentage points last week and still not qualifying for a buy signal.

The Near-term and Quick-term signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Dec 1, 2011. It is down by 0.4% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. It was up over 25.0%, annualized at 29.0% from its Quick-term buy signal on Sep 15, 2010 and the Quick-term sell signal on Aug 8, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 106.3% since that buy signal, annualizing at 35.0%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy on Jul 6, 2011. It was up about 10% until the NTI signaled sell on Sep 23, 2011. It was flat since that sell signal and its most recent buy signal on Oct 26, 2011. It down 0.6% since that buy signal.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for six of the major indices. They are up by an average of 3.2%, since their bull signals an average of 16.2-weeks ago. The four bears are up by an average of 8.3% since their bear signals two weeks ago. They did not receive bull signals the past two weeks because their Force Vectors have not crossed above Pressure and/or into bullish domains.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $30,969,413. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,883,683 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $132,633. That beats buy and hold’s $122,949 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $208,835. That beats buy and hold’s $91,777 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,570.7%, 7.9%, and 127.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 320.9% (annualized at 15.9%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,049-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report – Summary

Prices bounced back above NTI Blue on Friday’s stock market bullishness, subjecting stock market Force Vectors to irrelevance, although remaining under intense surveillance. Force continues supporting the stock market bear, but NTI Blue Bulls trump all remaining short-term attributes.

The Mid-term Indicant remains unsupportive of either bull or bear with mixed signaling. So, do not be surprised at continued stock market volatility. If volatility occurs above NTI Blue or QTI Red, it will be irrelevant because the bullish expressions will outweigh the bearish expressions, fostering a continuation of the short-term bull cycle. However, if that volatility occurs below NTI Green and/or QTI Yellow, the bear will be further inspired by the fear element. The worse fear element is fearing a stock market bear. Economic and political fears are miniscule when compared to “bear fear.”

Somewhat encouraging to the stock market bull is the VIX’s NTI Bullish Blue Curve’s collapse today. Right now, the “fear” of volatility is being muted. It will be interesting if this collapse is countered with a contrarian response by the VIX.

QTI Yellow has been somewhat of a lid, squashing bullish desires, while simultaneously acting as a floor against bearish ambition.

As stated last Wednesday, ETN#32-VXX is on the verge of receiving a buy signal. Its Pressure is positive, but its price remains below NTI Blue. Force is nearing Pressure, but price still remains below NTI Blue. Contrarian ETF#31-QID is similarly configured.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Index Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 0.9%, annualizing at 39.9%, since their bull signals 1.1-weeks ago. The lone bear is contrarian VIX, which is down 13.9% since the near-term bear signal 1.4-weeks ago. Its Force must climb above Pressure before signaling bull.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

All eleven non-contrarian indices have a bull signal from the same dates as the Near-term Indicant. The lone QTI bear is contrarian VIX. Performance levels are the same as the Near-term Indicant.

Indicant Volume Indicators

Dec 9-Fri-Low volume on herky-jerky Euro-bullish behavior is nothing.

Dec 8-Thu-Volume was unseasonably high on today’s bearish aggression. The near-term baby bull is in trouble.

Dec 7-Wed-Very low volume again on flat behavior remains meaningless, but starting to add to vulnerability to the baby near-term bull cycle.

Dec 6-Tue-Very low volume on flat behavior is also meaningless.

Dec 5-Mon-Below average volume on mild bullish behavior means little.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 0.8% since their buy signals an average of 1.4-weeks ago.

The NTI is avoiding four-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 0.8% since their sell signals an average of 2.1-weeks ago. Three of the four are contrarian and their Force Vectors are rising. However, they have not qualified for buy signals yet.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 6.0% since their buy signals an average of 9.2-weeks ago. This annualizes at 34.1%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding eight-ETFs. They are up .07% since the QTI sell signals an average of 2.7-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Quick-term Indicant and Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Dec 1, 2011. It is down 0.4% since those buy signals. Its declining Force remains above Pressure and inside bullish domains. If Force falls below Pressure, a sell signal will be triggered.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 106.3% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 35.0%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $151.64 and still rising. Relaxation remains in order, since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $166.40. (Yesterday’s report erroneously stated closing price at $169. It should have stated $165.98). The Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until interaction with QTI Yellow Curve.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 26, 2011, as Force catapulted itself into bullish domains and above Pressure. It is down 0.6%, since that buy signal. It will be interesting if this near-term bullish cycle can hold up in the face of potential profit taking. NTI Green proved to be a bullish bouncing point, suggesting a continuation of this near-term bullish cycle. So far, it has been lazy, due to strengthening U.S. dollar against pathetic world currencies. It is again very near NTI-Green. It will be interesting if NTI-Green is again a bouncing point. Its Force is now below Pressure and inside bearish domains. A near-term sell signal will occur if price falls below Green with this weak Force.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received sell signals from the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant on Dec 1, 2011. It is down 0.2% since then. It is not configured with strong support for its bearishness. The sell signal was stimulated by stock market bullishness and this ETF’s contrarian nature. It will receive a buy signal once its Force crosses above Pressure and into bullish domains, as long as its price holds above NTI Blue.

ETF#31-QID received a sell signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant on Dec 1, 2011. Force is diving deeper into bearish domains and there are no floors. It is down 1.1% since those sell signals. When its Force crosses above Pressure, a buy signal will be triggered if the other short-term attributes remain in support of that buy.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 30, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 2.9% since those sell signals. Its Force cycle was at a common minimum last Wednesday and profoundly bullish this past Thursday. It was decisively bearish today, but with rising Force which threatens its avoid signal.

Major ETF Events

Dec 9-Fri-Prices climbed above NTI Blue adding support for the baby near-term bull signal. Although this trumps concerns regarding bearishly directed Force Vectors, prices have been enduring difficulties in holding above NTI Blue.

Dec 8-Thu-Short-term Force Vectors are increasingly supportive of the stock market bear. However, they remain in bullish domains. Their behavior the next day or two is paramount to the short-term cycle.

Dec 7-Wed-Non-contrarian Force Vectors shifted south off of common peaks and contrarians, such as QID and VXX, shifted north. Although this is inspirational to the stock market bear, but bull remains dominant. It will be interesting to see if the stock market bull has enough punch to depress the bear’s ambition.

Dec 6-Tue-Same as yesterday.

Dec 5-Mon-No major events.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Dec 9, 2011-The near-term bull cycle is under attack by bearish force. Do not buy any equity at this time. The stock market is enduring bearish convergence along the near-term cycle. Force Vector behavior will offer greater clarity on directional intensity in the next day or two even though prices are above NTI Blue.

Reverse Tangential Projections

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed bullish convergence for four consecutive weeks through week-ending Oct 28, 2011. That would normally influence continued bullish behavior. That bullish phenomenon remains irrelevant. Unfortunately, the stock market has endured four consecutive weeks of combined bearish convergent and bearish divergent behavior until the past two weeks. That remains relevant in spite of dynamic stock market bullish behavior two weeks ago. The stock market bear has a bit of an edge with this attribute. However, there have now been two consecutive weeks of combined bullish and bearish divergence. Stock market volatility is challenging this normally consistent attribute.

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past three weeks, the NASDAQ100 again toppled its 2007 peak nine weeks ago along the Mid-term cycle. That was the fourth time it has done that this year. Each time it retreated. The NAS100 crossed above 2007’s cyclical peak again two weeks ago. That is the fifth time it has done that this year. It will be interesting to see if it can hold and gain some company from the other major indices in the coming weeks. If not, one can continue arguing a long-term secular bear, originating in 2000, will continue. The NAS100 held up last week but the other major indices need to also achieve that accomplishment for the bull to express its desired ambition to dominate.

The heart and soul of bullish seasonality still has a chance at its annual manifestation. Next week needs to be bullish to help propel it through the end of January 2012. It did so last week, but needs to continue doing that. There is room for both; that is, the heart and soul bullish behavior and a secular bear. For example, the S&P indices can increase as much as 20% and still not upset the secular bear argument.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

12/11/2011

Dec 4, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

NASDAQ100’s Fifth Attempt to Hold above Oct 2007-Peak

When viewing the NASDAQ100 chart, one can analogize an electrocardiogram’s expression of a heart attack. Click this sentence to view the NAS100 Mid-term Indicant chart. The NAS100 again crossed above its Oct 2007 cyclical peak last week. That is the fifth time it has done that since it first did it in late 2010 along the mid-term cycle. Each time since then, it retreated, with some violent support by the stock market bear. Some of those retreats were not immediate, but most of them occurred within a couple of weeks.

The NAS100 is the only index enjoying this accomplishment at this time. It is above the mid-term cyclical peak of Oct 31, 2007 by a paltry 2.7%. Linearly, it is underperforming lowly CD’s for the last five years when considering the power of compound interest. The Mid-term Indicant cannot signal bull for the NAS100 since its Force Vector is moving south and inside bearish domains. That bearish attribute should be resolved in a week or two if it remains bullish.

None of the other major indices are above their 2007 peaks. A sustainable stock market bull requires that issue to be resolved. Until it is resolved, arguments favoring a secular stock market bear have merit. After all, for the most part, the stock market has been bearish since October 2007.

The most bearish is the weak, dilettante infested S&P100 index. It is still down 23.0% from its mid-term cyclical peak on Oct 9, 2007. Even the normally most bullish indices during stock market bulls are still down from their 2007 peaks. The S&P400 Mid-cap Index is down 4.9% since its July 13, 2007 peak. The S&P600 is down 8.2% since it peaked on Jul 19, 2007. Those two potentially dynamic indices have crossed above those peaks a few times during the past year and immediately retreated with significant bearishness.

If this were an election year, this would add to the argument of a secular bear since that would lead into the normally bearish post-election year. However, the presidential election year is normally bullish. Historical standards favor a stock market bull in 2012. That adds some support for the heart and soul of bullish seasonality this year (right now).

Interestingly, the DJIA again crossed above its Jan 13, 2000 mid-term cyclical peak this past week. It did this also in 2007 and held there, passively, for several weeks before succumbing to the stock market bear. Even the S&P500 crossed its 2000 peak in 2007, but quickly slid back into a bearish cycle. It is down 18.7% since its mid-term cyclical peak over 12-years ago. The NASDAQ is down 48.0% since its peak on March 9, 2000. Pundits arguing on behalf of a secular bear, using the NASDAQ and S&P500 index have significant facts supporting their claim. The DJIA is again offering some mild hope that secular bear market has expired.

Although this is somewhat boring, it is significant. Explosive bullish behavior based on worldwide governments easing credit is not what one would call a variable of sustainability. Corporate earnings are the primary driver of stock market behavior. They are not that bad, but certainly not congruent with 2003-2011-Apple earnings or 1990-1999 Dell earnings. In other words, do not be surprised at either bearish continuation or a sustainable bull. If the major indices cross above the aforementioned prior cyclical peaks, then one can bias investing behavior consistent with bullish expectations. If not, bias toward gold and some cash. If politicians continue interfering with the capital markets, the bear will continue. It is absolutely impossible for them to help the capital markets.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

NAS#57-FSLR was up 18.5% last week. There was no buy signal despite such dynamic bullishness. It is down 54.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell this past August 5. It is too close to politicians and dependent on the energy sector. Although oil prices are high, it is still not competitive. There were no losers among the NAS100 stocks. The two weakest gainers were NAS#74-GILD and NAS#83-SHLD. They were both up 0.3%. NAS#74-GILD is forgiven for not participating in significant bullishness last week. It is up 879.3% since the MTI signaled buy in April 2001. Although it participated in the 2007-2008 bear market, it did not even get a sell signal when falling below MTI Yellow then. It is fundamentally a very strong company even with disappointing stock price behavior since the last bear market. The trend since early 2010 is up, although remaining down since late 2007. NAS#83-SHLD was one of the most solidly bullish performers in the 2002-2007 bull market. As you can see its trend has been steadily bearish since its first sell signal in early 2007. It has made a few gallant attempts to join the ranks of holding, but currently enduring an avoid signal. It is below MTI-Yellow with declining and bearishly positioned Force Vectors. It is up 0.3% since its sell signal last week.

ISTK#32-HYGS was the most bearish in this group of stocks last week. It was down 10.3% last week. This stock was highly touted as the one of the stocks to buy and hold for the 21^st Century when it was IPO and even beyond that. It has demonstrated dramatic bullish spurts from time to time, but always falling short of climbing above its MTI-bearish yellow curve. The yellow curve has been acting as a lid to its stock price since 2005. It is down 93.2% since the MTI sell signal in May 2006. ISTK#81-SANM was up 22.4% last week. That was impressive, but not enough to trigger a buy signal. It is a yellow bear with declining Force. It has been a steady bear with supporting long-term trend since its peak price of $347.06 in late 2000. It closed this past week at $8.46. It is down 19.6% since the MTI sell signal this past May.

DJIA#09-BA was up 13.6% as the DOW30’s biggest gainer. It is up 10.4% since the MTI buy signal this past October. As you can see, this gain was accomplished just this past week after bouncing around its bearish yellow curve since then. Boeing has been enduring a mild bearish trend for the past six years. Keep in mind, this company has two problems. Federal bureaucrats are meddling with their point of production and such large companies are very attractive to dilettante management styles. There were no losers among the DOW30 stocks. DJIA#29-TRV up 1.3% last week, as the weakest gainer. It is up 43.5% since the MTI buy signal in March 2009. It was one of the first to get a buy signal following the 2007-2008 bear market. Although it is up since then, its performance is disappointing. In spite of that, it does enjoy a steady bullish trend during the past ten years.

DJU#11-WMB was up 9.0% last week. It is up 64.1% since the MTI buy signal in Oct 2010. This stock demonstrated very wild mid-term cyclical swings. It is in one of those upward sprials. Enjoy. The Dow Utilities avoided losers this past week. The weakest gainer was DJU#06-EIX. It was up 1.6%. It is up 10.6% since the MTI buy signal just over a year ago in Oct 2010. Although somewhat disappointing, it has been trending bullishly since late 2008. It appears comfortable above its MTI bearish yellow curve and even enjoying Red Bull status.

MF#09-SSGRX was up 14.6% last week, mutual funds largest gainer. That profound bullishness was not friendly to the MTI-avoid signal. It is up by the same amount since the MTI sell signal last week. It crossed above QTI-Yellow this past week and no longer a yellow bear. It will receive a buy signal once Force redirects in a positive direction. Funds biggest loser was contrarian MF#22-USPIX. It was down 13.4%, as the only loser among mutual funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. This fund is down 79.3% since the MTI sell signal in April 2009. It is classically a postelection year hold, but that did not occur in 2009. If there is little congressional turnover in Nov 2012, you can look forward to this fund’s bullishness in 2013.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no-buy signals and no-sell signals. The 109-buy signals in the past eight weeks and forty-five sell signals the past three weekends were interrupted with no activity this weekend.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 240 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 58.2%. That annualizes to 38.9%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 240-stocks and funds for an average of 77.8-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 83-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 17.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 45.4-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Dec 3, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 289-stocks and funds out of 339 tracked for an average of 50.6-weeks. They were up by an average of 41.9% (annualized at 43.1%). There were 48-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 52.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 118.9-weeks earlier one year ago. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 189-stocks and funds of the 317-tracked two years ago on Dec 4, 2009. They were up by an average of 29.1%, annualized at 50.2%, since their respective buy signals an average of 30.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 116-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 37.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 86.0-weeks earlier. There were 12-buy signals, while there were 159-buy signals in the prior 19-weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2009.

There were only 23-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 344-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Nov 28, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 52.2-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 84.5% (annualized at 84.3%). There were 317-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 33.6% from their respective sell signals an average of 27.3-weeks earlier. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 570-sell signals in the prior 55-weeks, as the bear market was nearing its ultimate depth, but still incomplete in its final destruction. There were no buy signals on this weekend in 2008 even with the weighted influence to do so with the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

On Nov 30, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 235-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 152.6% (annualized at 60.8%) since their buy signals an average of 130.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 107-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 4.7% since their sell signals an average of 14.9-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and 16-sell signals on this weekend in 2007 in addition to 60-sell signals in the prior five weeks. The 2003-Mid-term bull cycle was past its peak at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies. A huge number of sell signals continued for the next several months as the bear market gained momentum throughout most of 2008, through early 2009.

Five years ago, on Dec 1, 2006, there were 311-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 344 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 107.6% (annualized at 69.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 84.3-weeks earlier. There were 31-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 12.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 19.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid, for the most, part in 2006.

On Dec 2, 2005, there were 268-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 97.6%, annualizing at 62.1%, since their respective buy signals an average of 81.7-weeks earlier. There were 47-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 17.1% since their sell signals an average of 27.5-weeks earlier. There were four buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2005.

There were 301-stocks and funds with hold signals on Nov 26, 2004. They were up by an average of 69.8%, annualizing at 67.1%, since their buy signals 54.1-weeks earlier. The 17-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 44.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 56.3-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2004. The 2004-meandering bear market that pestered throughout most of 2004 was giving way to the heart and soul of bullish seasonality at this time in 2004.

On Dec 5, 2003, there were 271-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 53.7% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 35.4-weeks earlier. That annualized at 84.0%. There were only 14-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 24.9% since their sell signals an average of 35.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were eight-buy signals in addition to 410-buy signals in the prior 37-weeks. There were three-sell signals on this weekend in 2003, as the stock market concluded its classical late summer sell-off. The 2003 bull market was 40-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Dec 6, 2002, there were 286-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 26.2% since their buy signals an average of 10.4-weeks earlier, annualizing at 81.0%. There were nine-stocks and funds avoided since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 10.4-weeks earlier. The avoided stocks and funds were down 16.2%. There was one-buy signal in addition to 508-buy signals in the prior 19-weeks. Although the stock market bear remained in effect, it was beginning to display weakness. Some of the Aug. 2002-buy signals retained hold signals through late 2007 and early 2008, while others endured sell signals before the conclusion of calendar year 2002 and in early 2003. Energy related buy signals in Aug 2002, however, held strongly through the December 2002-record-bear and lasted until late 2008. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2002.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Bull and Bear Signals This Weekend

All major indices no longer remain configured with bullish attributes. Although they weakened two weeks ago, the bull countered last week and returning them to the same position as three weeks ago.

Although mid-term cyclical attributes remain in support of the stock market bull, the stock market bear is threatening the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 65.0% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 135.8% and the S&P500 is up 60.2% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 139.4% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months. Configurations shifted in support of normal pre-election year bullishness four weeks ago. It was challenged by the stock market bear week before last, but the stock market bull counter-punched the stock market bear with a significant blow this past week.

The NASDAQ is down 48.0% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 18.5% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is again up and by 2.5% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish the last eleven years. Technically, one could call that a secular bear; albeit a mild one.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 21.9% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality manifested at this time of year in spite of dynamic bearishness in 2001. However, it was a weak expression, but bullish nonetheless.

The NASDAQ was down by 23.9% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality was solid at this time in 2002, but endured a couple of disruptive incursions by the stock market bear in December and again in Feb-Mar 2003.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 48.3%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by a paltry 7.0% from that year’s meandering bear market, but finished up by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was up 4.5% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up by 9.4% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 10.2% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 45.3% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 38.6% on this weekend in 2009 and finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 13.7% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is up 3.8% this year. The S&P500 is down 1.1% and the NASDAQ is down 1.0%, respectively, this year. As you can see, the stock market bull has been shying away from the idea that historical standards of stock market bullishness should repeat this year, but again attempting to conform to historical standards.

The Dow is down 15.1% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 8.1% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 20.5% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. This coincides with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007.

Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that, though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 twenty-two weeks ago. That was the second time this year such accomplishment was enjoyed. Eclipsing and holding above 2007 cyclical peaks remains elusive with the exception of the NAS100. It is again above its Oct 31, 2007 cyclical peak. As of this past weekend, all major indices are below their 2007 peaks with the exception of the NASDAQ100. They continue expressing difficulty justifying an escape from those 2007-peak prices.

Several indices have never challenged those peak prices. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 23.0% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. As you can see from recent stock market behavior, suspicions about the 2009-2011 bull leg had merit. It still does. The reason for those suspicions was near maximal incongruence between political leadership and the underlying principles of capital markets. The Dec 12, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The NASDAQ100 catapulted above its 2007 peak along the Mid-term cycle this past week. It is the only major index conquering that configuration. It is now 2.8% above that weekly closing peak on Oct 31, 2007. This is the fifth time since early 2011 that it has crossed above its 2007-peak. It will be interesting to see if it can hold above that level during the upcoming election year. Historical standards favor that.

The Dow is up 83.6% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 107.1% and the S&P500 is up 83.9% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 124.8% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Such a successor bear cycle may now be underway, although not expected to continue as Washington DC has a propensity to stalemate during presidential pre-election years. This is especially true when the president is unpopular. Both of those conditions persist and favorable to the stock market bull, but polls are suggesting it is too close to inspire the stock market bull. That, coupled with European weakness, confronts the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. They have been yielding zero for the past 17-weeks.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 46-weeks ago. It lost that Red Bull status eleven weeks ago with a continuing sharp drop against the greenback. You can see it has a triple camelback with negative (bearish) trend.

The Canadian dollar also strengthened the past few days, but remains within the tolerances of its weakening cycle. It is more solidly resuming a cycle of weakness. The CA$ moved in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) twelve weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull (bearish for the CA$), which threatens its cycle of strengthening. The Japanese Yen continued its strengthening cycle. The Japanese yen remains extraordinarily strong due to that country’s superior management in the private sector.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. Despite solid bearish behavior in six of the past ten weeks, it continues trading well above the 2012 yearend forecast curve. The $2,000/oz.-forecast by 2014 remains challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains intact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild, but with deepening bearish bias. It fell below yellow 17-weeks ago on souring economic news, but rebounded the six weeks ago and weakening again the past four weeks. It escaped Yellow Bear status, as expected. It is now in the neutral zone.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures fell prey to bearish economic pressures the past few weeks. It is approaching Yellow Bear status, but it continues resisting that condition with a strong rebound in two of the last four weeks. It fell last week on the U.S. strengthening behavior.

Commodity prices, overall, are favoring potential for a bearish cycle. If it manifests, some elements of inflationary threats will be dampened.

Mortgage rates are moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011. They continue along a bearish cycle.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and currently non-threatening toward inflation or deflation.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 4.3% since then, annualizing at 3.5%. Gold has demonstrated lackluster performance the past several weeks.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received an MTI buy signal on Jul 22, 2011. It is down 5.7% since that buy signal. If Force falls into bearish domains, it will receive a sell signal. It resisted that the past two weeks, offering some mild hope for the gold bull.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It received a buy signal on Oct 28, 2011 after missing an 18% opportunity in the last 12-months with most due to rapid bullishness ahead of Force Vector justification to signal buy. It is down 4.2% since that buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 28, 2011 after missing about 20% of opportunity. It is down 3.5% since that buy signal but resisting configurations supporting a sell signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on Friday, Nov 25, 2011. It will receive a buy signal once Force Vectors shift north. It was up over 14% last week.

The Near-term and Quick-term signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Dec 1, 2011. It is down by 0.1% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. It was up over 25.0%, annualized at 29.0% from its Quick-term buy signal on Sep 15, 2010 and the Quick-term sell signal on Aug 8, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 110.6% since that buy signal, annualizing at 36.7%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy on Jul 6, 2011. It was up about 10% until the NTI signaled sell on Sep 23, 2011. It was flat since that sell signal and its most recent buy signal on Oct 26, 2011. It is 1.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 14.1%. Call options, mentioned as attractive in last weeks report, performed nicely this past week.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for six of the major indices. They are up by an average of 2.3%, since their bull signals an average of 15.2-weeks ago. The four bears are up by an average of 7.4% since their bear signals one weekend ago. They did not receive bull signals this weekend because their Force Vectors have not crossed above Pressure and/or into bullish domains.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $30,550,430. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,828,605 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $142,433. That beats buy and hold’s $121,881 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $224,695. That beats buy and hold’s $91,086 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,570.7%, 16.9%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 79.3% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 315.2% (annualized at 15.6%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,048-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report – Summary

Force Vectors crossed into bullish domains and above Vector Pressure this past Thursday. Even though the stock market was mixed to mildly bearish the past two days, those configurations triggered several bull and buy signals on Wednesday after the market closed. History suggests no arguing with those configurations during the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

The stock market has been wishy-washy for nearly a year, but the sheer number of ETF’s and major indices configuring with bullish attributes suggest the heart and soul of bullish seasonality is going to make a gallant attempt at its annual manifestation.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Index Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. They are flat since those bull signals this past Thursday. The lone bear is contrarian VIX, which is down 10.2% since the near-term bear signal 0.4-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

All eleven non-contrarian indices have a bull signal from the same dates as the Near-term Indicant. The lone QTI bear is contrarian VIX. Performance levels are the same as the Near-term Indicant.

Indicant Volume Indicators

Dec 2-Fri-Mediocre volume and a flat market means very little.

Dec 1-Thu-Light volume on mixed stock market behavior is discouraging to the new bull.

Nov 30-Wed-Volume was up today on bullish aggression, supporting bullish inspiration. However, not enough other short-term attributes are supportive to signal bull.

Nov 29-Tue-Low volume on flat and mixed behavior does not offer much enthusiasm for either bull or bear.

Nov 28-Mon-Fair volume on bullish behavior offers hope for heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 0.1% since their buy signals an average of 0.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 15.1%.

The NTI is avoiding three-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 0.2% since their sell signals an average of 0.4-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 5.5% since their buy signals an average of 8.2-weeks ago. This annualizes at 34.7%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding eight-ETFs. They are up 1.2% since the QTI sell signals an average of 1.7-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Quick-term Indicant and Near-term Indicant signaled buy this past Thursday. All required attributes configured for a buy signal.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 110.6% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 36.7%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $151.04 and still rising. Relaxation remains in order, since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $169.82. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until interaction with QTI Yellow Curve.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 26, 2011, as Force catapulted itself into bullish domains and above Pressure. It is up 1.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 14.1%. It will be interesting if this near-term bullish cycle can hold up in the face of potential profit taking. NTI Green proved to be a bullish bouncing point, suggesting a continuation of this near-term bullish cycle. So far, so good!

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received sell signals from the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant this past Thursday. This sell signal was a bit premature due to Force falling into bearish domains. Price remains above NTI Green, but overall stock market bullish configurations do not favor a continued hold signal.

ETF#31-QID received a sell signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant this past Thursday. Force is diving deeper into bearish domains and there are no floors.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell this past Wednesday for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 2.4% since those sell signals.

Major ETF Events

Dec 2-Fri-There were no major events.

Dec 1-Thu-Several bull/buy signals were triggered as Force climbed into bullish domains and above Pressure.

Nov 30-Wed-Only one non-contrarian ETF qualified for a buy signal today on significant bullish aggression. None of the major indices, however, qualified for a bull signal.

Nov 29-Tue-Non-contrarian Force Vectors are rising from deep inside bearish domains. Buy/bull signals cannot occur until they cross above Pressure and into bullish domains.

Nov 28-Mon-Despite bullish aggression, there were no major events. Bearish bias will prevail until Force crosses above Pressure and into bullish domains and hold there for a couple of days. Also, price must cross above NTI Blue.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Dec 01, 2011-Bullish convergence occurred today even though the stock market was mixed to mildly bearish.

Reverse Tangential Projections

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past two weeks, the NASDAQ100 again toppled its 2007 peak eight weeks ago along the Mid-term cycle. That was the fourth time it has done that this year. Each time it retreated. The NAS100 crossed above 2007’s cyclical peak again this past week. That is the fifth time it has done that this year. It will be interesting to see if it can hold and gain some company from the other major indices in the coming weeks. If not, one can continue arguing a long-term secular bear, originating in 2000, will continue.

The heart and soul of bullish seasonality still has a chance at its annual manifestation. Next week needs to be bullish to help propel it through the end of January 2012. There is room for both; that is, the heart and soul bullish behavior and a secular bear. For example, the S&P indices can increase as much as 20% and still not upset the secular bear argument.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

12/04/2011