Feb 28, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 19 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Non-contrarian Force
Vectors remain in bearish domains. They are bearishly mature and most are
configuring against continued reductions in force. Pressure is enduring
some leakage, but well inside bullish domains. That disallows the bear to
dominate.
The contrarians, such
as TLT, remain with bearish configurations, which bodes well for the stock
market bull.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 15.7% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 20.3-weeks ago. That annualizes to 40.3%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is down 15.5% since its bear signal 23.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is down 15.5% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 17.6% since
their bull signals an average of 24.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 37.8%.
Short-term Market
Summary
Eleven Red Bulls remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. The
Near-term cycle remains a bit distressed with only five Blue Bulls.
All
non-contrarian Force Vectors remain in bearish domains. Some short-term
bullish support has been lost, but not enough to signal bears for the
major indices. Vector Pressure remains relatively high and protective of
bull’s ambition. Force Vectors are bearishly mature, but some are waffling
in bearish domains. That remains discerning, but mildly so. Force Vector
behavior the next few days is important to this bull cycle. Continued
waffling in bearish domains will be bearish.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull. The NASDAQ IVI is rising with mixed correlation to
bull/bear expressions. The big board’s IVI remains lethargic.
Feb
28, 2011-Mon-Volume remains subdued, which does nothing to threaten
bullish bias.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 19.2% since their buy signals an average of 22.4-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 44.5%.
The
NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 14.4% since
their sell signals an average of 11.7-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 22.7%
since their buy signals an average of 31.4-weeks ago. This annualizes at
37.5%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 45.7% since their sell
signals an average of 45.7-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 25-Red Bulls (lost one today), mitigating
dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 22-NTI Blue Bulls (gained
fourteen since last Fri) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market
bear. It only takes one NTI Blue Bull to discourage excessive behavior by
the bear. Nine of them, although not dynamic, provides the bull sufficient
security.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
45.0%, annualizing at 97.6%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 70.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 31.5%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.68 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 1.7% since then,
annualizing at 59.8%.
Near-term attributes for signaling next sell signal will be price below
NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
A
sound fundamental persists in continued threats to the gold bull.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 0.1% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 7.4% since
then.
TLT
enjoyed dynamic bullishness on stock market bearish aggression this past
week. If the stock market bull is aroused, this ETF should resume its
bearish cycle. Its configuration, as a stand alone observation, suggests
near-term bearishness. Its contrarian nature supports stock market bullish
bias.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 36.0% since then. As stated last week,
attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly
supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet
supportive of QID’s bullish desires. Interestingly, it received a reverse
stock split this past Friday. Its bearish performance had it in single
digit ranges a few days week before last. (Less than $10). Now it is above
$50 due to the reverse split.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 62.4% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior. Its Force Vector is bullishly mature and
tilting south. That should depress the stock market bear.
Major ETF Events
Feb 28, 2011-Mon-No
major events; a minor one is worth noting. TLT crossed QTI Yellow. Current
configurations suggest TLT will soon return to its prevailing bearish
cycle.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 28, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International
related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have
endured recent sell signals and are being avoided. For those of you who
bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow
before selling.
-Reverse Tangential
Bearish Detection
–
This phenomenon will
continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being.
The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and
ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The
presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This
phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep
in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem
is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the
shifting political cycles.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and
Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart
contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals
for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
The
tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the
Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and
reverse tangential bearish detectors.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
02/28/2011
Feb 25, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 18 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
As stated on Feb 9,
2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish,”
in spite of bullish behavior the past two Fridays. ETF#13-EWH-Hong
Kong,
ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets,
and
ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil,
and
ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan
are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates and
civil unrest could be contributing to their distress, the burning question
is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?” If yes, then the stock
market can remain bullish, lifting these three funds back into bullish
participation at some point. If “no” and they remain bearish, then the
overall stock market will follow their bearish path. As stated the past
few days, “yes” remains with a mild advantage over “no.”
Bearish aggression
earlier this week did not do enough to shift the answer to “no.” There are
too many Red Bulls and relatively high Vector Pressure for the bear to
dominate at this point.
ETF#06-EWJ-Japan
remains with bullish configurations in spite of its continuing currency
strength.
Interestingly,
several international ETF’s were non-bearish on last Wednesday’s bearish
aggression. Many are bumping against auto buy signals. Victims are recent
bearishness will do same in days. Some of that occurred this past Friday.
However, the NTI Green curve is a point of commonality for that
phenomenon.
So far, the remaining
ETF’s remain with bullish configurations in spite of recent near-term
bearish aggression.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 15.1% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 19.8-weeks ago. That annualizes to 39.7%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is down 11.5% since its bear signal 23.1-weeks ago.
As
stated last Wednesday, “the VIX was up over 30% on combined Tue-Wed
performance. It achieved Red Bull status on Wed, but it did not receive a
bull signal. The past few times it crossed above Red, it quickly
retreated.” It retreated over 10% this past Thu-Fri.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is down 11.5% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 17.0% since
their bull signals an average of 23.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 37.2%.
Short-term Market
Summary
Ten
Red Bulls remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. The Near-term
Bull is distressed as all Blue Bulls evaporated with this bear attack. The
Dow Transports lost its Red Bull status this past Wed, citing a direct
correlation between rising energy costs and this petro-thirsty sector. It
also fell below NTI Green this past Wed, qualifying for a bear signal.
However, more bearish synergy is required before the Near-term Indicant
signals bear. Interestingly, the Transport Force Vector is bullishly
mature, suggesting additional bullish counterattacks to bear’s recent
zeal.
All
non-contrarian Force Vectors are no longer in bullish domains. Some
short-term bullish support has been lost, but not enough to signal bears
for the major indices. Overall, though, Vector Pressure remains relatively
high and protective of bull’s ambition. Unfortunately, Force pierced
through Vector Pressure on several indices on Wed. Although discerning, it
remains as a minor issue.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull. The NASDAQ IVI is rising with mixed correlation to
bull/bear expressions. The big board’s IVI remains lethargic.
Feb
25, 2011-Fri-Low volume again with a bullish counterattack adds bullish
bias support.
Feb
24, 2011-Thu-Low volume on mixed behavior is not inspiring the bear.
Bullish bias prevails.
Feb
23, 2011-Wed-Volume nudge up again, but not robustly on bearish
aggression. Again, this is emotionally based and currently without
fundamental support. Middle Eastern tensions remain as culprit, but that
will eventually settle.
Feb
22, 2011-Tue-Volume was up a bit on bearish aggression. In spite of this
aggression, bias remains favor of the bull. However, additional bearish
aggressions with heightened volume in the next few days could threaten
current bullish bias.
Feb
18, 2011-Fri-Again, low volume prevails and not disruptive to continuation
of stock market bull.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 18.5% since their buy signals an average of 22.0-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 43.8%.
The
NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 14.5% since
their sell signals an average of 11.2-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 21.9%
since their buy signals an average of 31.0-weeks ago. This annualizes at
36.8%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 42.7% since their sell
signals an average of 45.2-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 26-Red Bulls (gained three on Fri after
losing three this past week for flat performance), mitigating dynamic and
sustainable bearish behavior. The five NTI Blue Bulls (lost twenty last
Tue-Wed, but gained nine on Fri) continue mitigating dominance by the
stock market bear, but significantly weakened with stock market bearish
aggression this past week. Only one NTI Blue Bull can offer resistance to
complete near-term bearish domination.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
43.9%, annualizing at 96.9%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 70.3% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 31.4%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.60 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 1.5% since then,
annualizing at 75.0%.
Near-term attributes for signaling next sell signal will be price below
NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
A
sound fundamental
persists in continued threats to the gold bull.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 0.3% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 7.5% since
then.
TLT
enjoyed dynamic bullishness on stock market bearish aggression this past
week. If the stock market bull is aroused, this ETF should resume its
bearish cycle. Its configuration as a stand alone observation suggests
near-term bearishness.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 35.7% since then. As stated last week,
attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly
supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet
supportive of QID’s bullish desires. Interestingly, it received a reverse
stock split this past Friday. Its bearish performance had it in single
digit ranges a few days week before last. (Less than $10). Now it is above
$50 due to the reverse split.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 60.7% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior. Its Force Vector is bullishly mature. That
should depress the stock market bear.
Major ETF Events
Feb 25,
2011-Fri-There were several “minor” events suggesting a continuation of
Friday’s bullish counterattack against the bear’s passion this past week.
However, the battle bull-bear battle continues.
Feb 24,
2011-Thu-There were no major events other than the slowing of bearish
ambition.
Feb 23,
2011-Wed-Transports fell below NTI Green with Force in bearish domains.
However, the absence of bearish synergy prevents bear signal.
Feb 22,
2011-Tue-Another international ETF received a sell signal today.
It was ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan.
Also, the overall stock market was aggressively bearish.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 25, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International
related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have
endured recent sell signals and are being avoided. For those of you who
bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow
before selling.
-Reverse Tangential
Bearish Detection
–
This phenomenon will
continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being.
The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and
ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The
presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This
phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep
in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem
is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the
shifting political cycles.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and
Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart
contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals
for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
The
tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the
Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and
reverse tangential bearish detectors.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
02/25/2011
Feb 24, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 17 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
As stated on Feb 9,
2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish,”
in spite of Friday’s bullish behavior. ETF#13-EWH-Hong
Kong,
ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets,
and
ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil,
and
ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan
are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates and
civil unrest could be contributing to their distress, the burning question
is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?” If yes, then the stock
market can remain bullish, lifting these three funds back into bullish
participation at some point. If no and they remain bearish, then the
overall stock market will follow their bearish path. So far, “yes” remains
with a mild advantage over “no.”
Bearish aggression
earlier this week did not do enough to shift the answer to “no.” There are
too many Red Bulls and relatively high Vector Pressure for the bear to
dominate at this point.
ETF#06-EWJ-Japan
remains with bullish configurations.
Interestingly,
several international ETF’s were non-bearish on Wednesday’s bearish
aggression. Many are bumping against auto buy signals. Victims are recent
bearishness will do same in days. The NTI Green curve is a point of
commonality for that phenomenon
So far, the remaining
ETF’s remain with bullish configurations in spite of recent near-term
bearish aggression.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 13.7% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 19.6-weeks ago. That annualizes to 36.3%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is down 1.8% since its bear signal 23.0-weeks ago. The VIX was up
over 30% on combined Tue-Wed performance. It achieved Red Bull status on
Wed, but it did not receive a bull signal. The past few times it crossed
above Red, it quickly retreated. It retreated a bit today.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is down 1.8% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 15.6% since
their bull signals an average of 23.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 34.3%.
Short-term Market
Summary
Nine
Red Bulls remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. The Near-term
Bull is distressed as all Blue Bulls evaporated with this bear attack. The
Dow Transports lost its Red Bull status on Wed, citing a direct
correlation between rising energy costs and the energy thirsty sector. It
also fell below NTI Green on Wed, qualifying for a bear signal. However,
more bearish synergy is required before the Near-term Indicant signals
bear.
All
non-contrarian Force Vectors are no longer in bullish domains. Some
short-term bullish support has been lost, but not enough to signal bears
for the major indices. Overall, though, Vector Pressure remains relatively
high and protective of bull’s ambition. Unfortunately, Force pierced
through Vector Pressure on several indices on Wed. Although discerning, it
remains as a minor issue.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull. The NASDAQ IVI is rising with mixed correlation to
bull/bear expressions. The big board’s IVI remains lethargic.
Feb
24, 2011-Thu-Low volume on mixed behavior is not inspiring the bear.
Bullish bias prevails.
Feb
23, 2011-Wed-Volume nudge up again, but not robustly on bearish
aggression. Again, this is emotionally based and currently without
fundamental support. Middle Eastern tensions remain as culprit, but that
will eventually settle.
Feb
22, 2011-Tue-Volume was up a bit on bearish aggression. In spite of this
aggression, bias remains favor of the bull. However, additional bearish
aggressions with heightened volume in the next few days could threaten
current bullish bias.
Feb
18, 2011-Fri-Again, low volume prevails and not disruptive to continuation
of stock market bull.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 16.9% since their buy signals an average of 21.9-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 40.2%.
The
NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 14.6% since
their sell signals an average of 11.1-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 20.3%
since their buy signals an average of 30.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at
34.2%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 42.1% since their sell
signals an average of 45.1-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 23-Red Bulls (lost three the past three
days), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The five NTI
Blue Bulls (lost twenty last Tue-Wed) continue mitigating dominance by the
stock market bear, but significantly weakened with stock market bearish
aggression this week. Only one NTI Blue Bull can offer resistance to
complete near-term bearish domination. So, we still have five of them in
support of this effort.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
41.6%, annualizing at 92.5%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 69.2% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 31.0%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.52 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 0.8% since then,
annualizing at 47.4%.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
A sound fundamental persists in continued threats to the gold bull.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 0.8% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 8.1% since
then.
TLT
enjoyed bullishness on stock market bearish aggression. If the stock
market bull is aroused, this ETF should resume its bearish cycle.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 33.9% since then. As stated last week,
attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly
supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet
supportive of QID’s bullish desires.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 58.0% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior.
Major ETF Events
Feb 24,
2011-Thu-There were no major events other than the slowing of bearish
ambition.
Feb 23,
2011-Wed-Transports fell below NTI Green with Force in bearish domains.
However, the absence of bearish synergy prevents bear signal.
Feb 22,
2011-Tue-Another international ETF received a sell signal today.
It was ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan.
Also, the overall stock market was aggressively bearish.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 24, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International
related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have
endured recent sell signals and are being avoided. For those of you who
bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow
before selling.
-Reverse Tangential
Bearish Detection
–
This phenomenon will
continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being.
The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and
ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The
presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This
phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep
in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem
is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the
shifting political cycles.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and
Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart
contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals
for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
The
tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the
Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and
reverse tangential bearish detectors.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
02/24/2011
Feb 23, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 16 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
As stated on Feb 9,
2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish,”
in spite of Friday’s bullish behavior. ETF#13-EWH-Hong
Kong,
ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets,
and
ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil,
and
ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan
are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates and
civil unrest could be contributing to their distress, the burning question
is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?” If yes, then the stock
market can remain bullish, lifting these three funds back into bullish
participation at some point. If no and they remain bearish, then the
overall stock market will follow their bearish path. So far, “yes” has a
mild advantage over “no.”
Bearish aggression
did not do enough to shift the answer to “no.” There are too many Red
Bulls and relatively high Vector Pressure for the bear to dominate at this
point.
ETF#06-EWJ-Japan
remains with bullish configurations.
Interestingly,
several international ETF’s were non-bearish on today’s bearish
aggression. Many are bumping against auto buy signals. Victims are recent
bearishness will do same in days. The NTI Green curve is a point of
commonality for that phenomenon.
So far, the remaining
ETF’s remain with bullish configurations in spite of recent bearish
aggression.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 13.6% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 19.5-weeks ago. That annualizes to 36.3%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is up 1.9% since its bear signal 22.9-weeks ago. The VIX is up
over 30% the past two days. It achieved Red Bull status today, but it did
not receive a bull signal. The past few times it crossed above Red, it
quickly retreated.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is up 1.9% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 15.5% since
their bull signals an average of 23.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 34.3%.
Short-term Market
Summary
Eleven Red Bulls remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. The
Near-term Bull is distressed as all Blue Bulls have evaporated with this
bear attack. The Dow Transports lost its Red Bull status today, citing a
direct correlation between energy costs and energy thirsty sector. It also
fell below NTI Green today, qualifying for a bear signal. However, more
bearish synergy is required before the Near-term Indicant to signal bear.
The
majority of Force Vectors no longer remain in bullish domains. Some
short-term bullish support has been lost, but not enough to signal bears
for the major indices. Overall though, Vector Pressure remains relatively
high and protective of bull’s ambition. Unfortunately, Force pierced
through Vector Pressure on several indices yesterday. Although discerning,
it remains as a minor issue.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull. The NASDAQ IVI is rising with mixed correlation to
bull/bear expressions. The big board’s IVI remains lethargic.
Feb
23, 2011-Wed-Volume nudge up again, but not robustly on bearish
aggression. Again, this is emotionally based and currently without
fundamental support. Middle Eastern tensions remain as culprit, but that
will eventually settle.
Feb
22, 2011-Tue-Volume was up a bit on bearish aggression. In spite of this
aggression, bias remains favor of the bull. However, additional bearish
aggressions with heightened volume in the next few days could threaten
current bullish bias.
Feb
18, 2011-Fri-Again, low volume prevails and not disruptive to continuation
of stock market bull.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 16.9% since their buy signals an average of 21.7-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 40.6%.
The
NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 14.6% since
their sell signals an average of 10.9-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 20.4%
since their buy signals an average of 30.7-weeks ago. This annualizes at
34.5%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 42.1% since their sell
signals an average of 45.0-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 24-Red Bulls (lost two the past two days),
mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The five NTI Blue
Bulls (lost twenty the past two days) continue mitigating dominance by the
stock market bear, but significantly weakened with stock market bearish
aggression this week.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
43.7%, annualizing at 97.6%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 70.5% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 31.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.44 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 1.6% since then,
annualizing at 111.7%.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
A sound fundamental persists in continued threats to the gold bull.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 1.5% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 8.7% since
then.
TLT
was very bullish on today’s stock market bearish aggression.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 33.2% since then. As stated last week,
attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly
supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet
supportive of QID’s bullish desires.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 57.6% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior.
Major ETF Events
Feb 23,
2011-Wed-Transports fell below NTI Green with Force in bearish domains.
However, the absence of bearish synergy prevents bear signal.
Feb 22,
2011-Tue-Another international ETF received a sell signal today.
It was ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan.
Also, the overall stock market was aggressively bearish.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 23, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International
related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have
endured recent sell signals and are being avoided. For those of you who
bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow
before selling.
-Reverse Tangential
Bearish Detection
–
This phenomenon will
continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being.
The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and
ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The
presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This
phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep
in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem
is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the
shifting political cycles.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and
Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart
contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals
for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
The
tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the
Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and
reverse tangential bearish detectors.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
02/23/2011
Feb 22, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 15 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
As stated on Feb 9,
2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish,”
in spite of Friday’s bullish behavior. ETF#13-EWH-Hong
Kong,
ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets,
and
ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil
are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates and
civil unrest could be contributing to their distress, the burning question
is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?” If yes, then the stock
market can remain bullish, lifting these three funds back into bullish
participation at some point. If no and they remain bearish, then the
overall stock market will follow their bearish path. So far, “yes” has a
mild advantage over “no.”
Today’s bearish
aggression did not do enough to shift the answer to “no.” There are too
many Red Bulls and relatively high Vector Pressure for the bear to
dominate at this point. However, adding some concern,
ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan
received a sell signal today, while
ETF#06-EWJ-Japan
remains with bullish configurations.
So far, the remaining
ETF’s remain with bullish configurations.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 14.9% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 19.4-weeks ago. That annualizes to 39.8%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is down 4.2% since its bear signal 22.7-weeks ago. The VIX was up
a whopping 26.6% on today’s stock market bearish aggression. However, its
Force Vector is bullishly mature and thus no bull signal for the VIX.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is down 4.2% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 16.8% since
their bull signals an average of 23.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 4.2%.
Short-term Market
Summary
The
majority of Force Vectors no longer remain in bullish domains. Some
short-term bullish support has been lost, but not enough to signal bears
for the major indices. Overall though, Vector Pressure remains relatively
high and protective of bull’s ambition. Unfortunately, Force pierced
through Vector Pressure and that is somewhat discerning but not yet major.
Several Blue Bulls were lost on today’s stock market bearish aggression.
With current short-term configurations, that is a minor concern. As long
as prices remain above NTI Green, the short-term will remain in tact.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull.
Feb
22, 2011-Tue-Volume was up a bit on bearish aggression. In spite of this
aggression, bias remains favor of the bull. However, additional bearish
aggressions with heightened volume in the next few days could threaten
current bullish bias.
Feb
18, 2011-Fri-Again, low volume prevails and not disruptive to continuation
of stock market bull.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 17.8% since their buy signals an average of 21.6-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 42.9%.
The
NTI is avoiding six ETF’s. They are down by an average of 17.7% since
their sell signals an average of 12.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 21.1%
since their buy signals an average of 30.6-weeks ago. This annualizes at
35.8%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 42.7% since their sell
signals an average of 44.8-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 25-Red Bulls (lost one today), mitigating
dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 12-NTI Blue Bulls (lost
thirteen today) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear,
but significantly weakened with today’s stock market bearish aggression.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
40.8%, annualizing at 91.8%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish in spite of today’s bearish behavior. This fund did not
track to the increase in oil prices.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 69.0% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 30.9%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.36 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 0.6% since then,
annualizing at 58.5%.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
A
sound fundamental persists in continued threats to the gold bull.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 1.8% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 9.0% since
then.
TLT
was very bullish on today’s stock market bearish aggression.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 34.2% since then. As stated last week,
attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly
supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet
supportive of QID’s bullish desires.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 59.4% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior. This ETN continues to not track the VIX.
Major ETF Events
Feb 22,
2011-Tue-Another international ETF received a sell signal today.
It was ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan. Also, the overall stock market was
aggressively bearish.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 22, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International
related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have
endured recent sell signals and are being avoided. For those of you who
bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow
before selling.
-Reverse Tangential
Bearish Detection
–
This phenomenon will
continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being.
The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and
ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The
presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This
phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep
in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem
is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the
shifting political cycles.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and
Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart
contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals
for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
The
tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the
Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and
reverse tangential bearish detectors.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
02/22/2011
Feb 18, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 14 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
This bull remains
dominant. Even the weaker Dow Utilities is beginning to display rejections
to the bear. However, international related funds continue lacking
bullish ambition.
As stated on Feb 9,
2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish,”
in spite of Friday’s bullish behavior. ETF#13-EWH-Hong
Kong,
ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets,
and
ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil
are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could
be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these
funds be bearish by themselves?” If yes, then the stock market can remain
bullish, lifting these three funds back into bullish participation at some
point. If no and they remain bearish, then the overall stock market will
follow their bearish path. So far, “yes” has a mild advantage over “no.”
ETF#06-EWJ-Japan
remains with bullish configurations. ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan
is no longer a Red Bull. Its Force Vector is bearishly mature and due for
a rebound. If that rebound does not invigorate the Taiwan bull, it will
receive a Near-term sell signal. Its Force Vector is bearishly mature and
its rebounding nature will offer more insight of its directional
intensity.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 17.5% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 18.8-weeks ago. That annualizes to 48.2%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is down 24.4% since its bear signal 22.1-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is down 24.4% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 19.4% since
their bull signals an average of 22.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 44.2%.
Short-term Market
Summary
The
majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull.
Force Vector remains directionally mixed with most supporting the bull,
but a few expressing some bearish interest. The Dow Utilities Force Vector
remains in bearish domains even though it was bullish today. Overall
though, Vector Pressure is relatively high and protective of bull’s
continuation.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time
being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated
the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near
holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers
potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level
remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the
bull.
Feb
18, 2011-Fri-Again, low volume prevails and not disruptive to continuation
of stock market bull.
Feb
17, 2011-Thu-Summer time/holiday volume continues to persist. Although not
necessarily disturbing, it is very interesting the strongest bull leg
(since Aug 2010) in this bull (starting May 2009) has not garnished much
interest. The NASDAQ is setting just under pre-2008-crash levels, while
the Big Board remains well below its pre-crash levels. Although not while
not yet alarming, this low volume bull cannot persist without volume
support. The next time Force Vectors dip into bearish domains on
relatively high volume, this bull could expire. Granted much of this bull
is generated via “play” money, it is a bull nonetheless. The Indicant
never worries about illogical bulls. A bull is a bull, period!
Feb
16, 2011-Wed-Volume was up a tad on today’s mild bullishness. Bullish bias
remains in effect.
Feb
15, 2011-Tue-Same as yesterday.
Feb
14, 2011-Mon-Depressed volume continues, but does nothing to threaten
bullish bias.
Feb
11, 2011-Fri-Volume was again slightly above recent averages, but
remaining well below historical averages on solid bullish behavior. Such
behavior remains as stock market bias.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated one buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 20.9% since their buy signals an average of 21.9-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 49.5%.
The
NTI is avoiding six ETF’s. They are down by an average of 17.7% since
their sell signals an average of 12.0-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 23.7%
since their buy signals an average of 30.0-weeks ago. This annualizes at
41.1%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.6% since their sell
signals an average of 44.2-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 26-Red Bulls (gained one this Fri),
mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 25-NTI Blue Bulls
(lost one on Fri) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
42.2%, annualizing at 97.3%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in three of the
prior six weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull.
Force was approaching bearish domains, but shifted north like all good
bulls do a few days ago. Continued unrest in Meddle East adds to this
funds bullishness.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 67.9% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 30.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.29 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy today. Its Force Vector shifted
non-bearishly in bullish domains with bullish Vector Pressure. It also
resumed its Red Bull status. Although the gold bear lingers on a
near-term basis, it demonstrated an inability to display its ambition the
past several days.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
Although the Near-term Indicant signaled buy today, a sound fundamental
persists in continued threats to the gold bull.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 3.3% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 10.3% since
then.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 37.8% since then. It finally succumbed to
single digit status at $9.98 last Monday. After rebounding to $10.00 last
Tue, it remains at a single digit status of $9.92. Attributes are no
longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the
“short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s
bullish desires.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 63.8% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior. This ETN continues to not track the VIX.
Major ETF Events
Feb 18,
2010-Fri-None.
Feb 17,
2010-Thu-Although economic news was favorable, the bull’s bullishness was
mild.
Feb 16,
2010-Wed-None.
Feb 15,
2010-Tue-None.
Feb 14, 2010-Mon-The
prior statement erroneously stated Friday’s behavior paralleled the 1970’s
stock market. It should have stated Friday’s behavior … paralleled the
1980’s stock market.
Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Oil
down, gold down, energy sector down while stock market was up. This all
relates to Mubarak’s resignation as Egypt’s dictator. These configurations
also parallel the 1970’s stock market.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 18, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International
related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have
endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD
on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before
selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.
-Reverse Tangential
Bearish Detection
–
This phenomenon will
continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being.
The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and
ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The
presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This
phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep
in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem
is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the
shifting political cycles.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and
Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart
contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals
for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
The
tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the
Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and
reverse tangential bearish detectors.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
02/18/2011
Feb 17, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 13 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
This bull remains
dominant with the exception of the Dow Utilities and international related
funds. Utilities’ Force Vector remains bearish domains and Pressure is
nearing same. Other than Utilities all else remains bullish.
As stated on Feb 9,
2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish.”
ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong,
ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets,
and
ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil
are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could
be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these
funds be bearish by themselves?” If yes, then the stock market can remain
bullish, lifting these three funds back into bullish participation at some
point. If no and they remain bearish, then the overall stock market will
follow their bearish path. So far, “yes” has a mild advantage over “no.”
ETF#06-EWJ-Japan
remains with bullish configurations. ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan
is no longer a Red Bull. Its Force Vector is bearishly mature and due for
a rebound. If that rebound does not invigorate the Taiwan bull, it will
receive a Near-term sell signal. Its Force Vector is bearishly mature and
its rebounding nature will offer more insight of its directional
intensity.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 17.3% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 18.7-weeks ago. That annualizes to 48.1%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is down 23.6% since its bear signal 22.0-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is down 23.6% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 19.2% since
their bull signals an average of 22.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 44.1%.
Short-term Market
Summary
The
majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull.
Force Vector remains directionally mixed with most supporting the bull,
but a few expressing some bearish interest. The Dow Utilities Force Vector
remains in bearish domains. Overall though, Vector Pressure is relatively
high and protective of bull’s continuation.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time
being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated
the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near
holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers
potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level
remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the
bull.
Feb
17, 2011-Thu-Summer time/holiday volume continues to persist. Although not
necessarily disturbing, it is very interesting the strongest bull leg
(since Aug 2010) in this bull (starting May 2009) has not garnished much
interest. The NASDAQ is setting just under pre-2008-crash levels, while
the Big Board remains well below its pre-crash levels. Although not while
not yet alarming, this low volume bull cannot persist without volume
support. The next time Force Vectors dip into bearish domains on
relatively high volume, this bull could expire. Granted much of this bull
is generated via “play” money, it is a bull nonetheless. The Indicant
never worries about illogical bulls. A bull is a bull, period!
Feb
16, 2011-Wed-Volume was up a tad on today’s mild bullishness. Bullish bias
remains in effect.
Feb
15, 2011-Tue-Same as yesterday.
Feb
14, 2011-Mon-Depressed volume continues, but does nothing to threaten
bullish bias.
Feb
11, 2011-Fri-Volume was again slightly above recent averages, but
remaining well below historical averages on solid bullish behavior. Such
behavior remains as stock market bias.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 20.6% since their buy signals an average of 21.8-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 49.4%.
The
NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 15.1% since
their sell signals an average of 10.8-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 23.4%
since their buy signals an average of 29.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at
40.8%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.6% since their sell
signals an average of 44.1-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 25-Red Bulls (gained one today), mitigating
dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 26-NTI Blue Bulls (gained
three the past two days) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market
bear.
Bearish spurt potential remains, albeit without demonstrated abilities.
The absence of bullish unity remains with some non-contrarian ETF’s still
lacking bullish configurations; mostly international related funds.
Bearish unity also does not exist. Therefore, the bear cannot dominate.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
41.6%, annualizing at 96.6%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in three of the
prior five weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull.
Force was approaching bearish domains, but shifted north like all good
bulls do a few days ago. Last Friday’s bearishness is derived from
Mubarak’s expulsion from Egypt’s leadership position. That was emotional.
It was solidly bullish since then even though oil prices fell. Continued
unrest in Meddle East adds to this funds bullishness.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 67.4% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 30.4%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.23 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 2.9% since that
sell signal.
It
fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into
bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish
domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the
past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the
Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the
Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec
2008.
The
Near-term Green curve continues moving south. That should invigorate the
gold bear but that has been disrupted by a bullish spurt.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 3.0% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 10.0% since
then.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 38.1% since then. It finally succumbed to
single digit status at $9.98 last Monday. After rebounding to $10.00 last
Tue, it remains at a single digit status of $9.88. Attributes are no
longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the
“short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s
bullish desires.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 64.1% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior.
Major ETF Events
Feb 17,
2010-Thu-Although economic news was favorable, the bull’s bullishness was
mild.
Feb 16,
2010-Wed-None.
Feb 15,
2010-Tue-None.
Feb 14, 2010-Mon-The
prior statement erroneously stated Friday’s behavior paralleled the 1970’s
stock market. It should have stated Friday’s behavior … paralleled the
1980’s stock market.
Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Oil
down, gold down, energy sector down while stock market was up. This all
relates to Mubarak’s resignation as Egypt’s dictator. These configurations
also parallel the 1970’s stock market.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 17, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International
related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have
endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD
on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before
selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.
-Reverse Tangential
Bearish Detection
–
This phenomenon will
continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being.
The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and
ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The
presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This
phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep
in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem
is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the
shifting political cycles.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and
Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart
contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals
for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
The
tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the
Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and
reverse tangential bearish detectors.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
02/17/2011
Feb 16, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 12 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
This bull remains
dominant with the exception of the Dow Utilities and international related
funds. Utilities’ Force Vector remains bearish domains and Pressure is
nearing same. Other than Utilities all else remains bullish.
As stated on Feb 9,
2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish.”
ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong,
ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets,
and
ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil
are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could
be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these
funds be bearish by themselves?”
ETF#06-EWJ-Japan
remains with bullish configurations. ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan
is no longer a Red Bull. Its Force Vector is bearishly mature and due for
a rebound. If that rebound does not invigorate the Taiwan bull, it will
receive a Near-term sell signal.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 16.9% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 18.5-weeks ago. That annualizes to 47.4%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is down 23.0% since its bear signal 21.9-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is down 23.0% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 18.8% since
their bull signals an average of 22.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 43.5%.
Short-term Market
Summary
The
majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull.
Force Vector remains directionally mixed with most supporting the bull,
but a few expressing some bearish interest. The Dow Utilities Force Vector
is in bearish domains. It was the only major index expressing bearish
behavior today. Vector Pressure is relatively high and protective of
bull’s continuation.
Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering may renew.
The VIX is poised for some bullish behavior. It has been mildly bullish
the past few days, but the bullish stock market continues to depress its
bullish ambition.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time
being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated
the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near
holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers
potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level
remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the
bull.
Feb
16, 2011-Wed-Volume was up a tad on today’s mild bullishness. Bullish bias
remains in effect.
Feb
15, 2011-Tue-Same as yesterday.
Feb
14, 2011-Mon-Depressed volume continues, but does nothing to threaten
bullish bias.
Feb
11, 2011-Fri-Volume was again slightly above recent averages, but
remaining well below historical averages on solid bullish behavior. Such
behavior remains as stock market bias.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 20.1% since their buy signals an average of 21.6-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 48.5%.
The
NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 15.3% since
their sell signals an average of 10.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 22.9%
since their buy signals an average of 29.7-weeks ago. This annualizes at
40.1%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.7% since their sell
signals an average of 44.0-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 24-Red Bulls (flat the past two days),
mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 25-NTI Blue Bulls
(gained two today) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.
Bearish spurt potential remains. Configurations are shifting again in
favor of the bear. The absence of bullish unity remains with some
non-contrarian ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly
international related funds. Bearish unity also does not exist. Therefore,
the bear cannot dominate.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
40.2%, annualizing at 94.0%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in three of the
prior five weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull.
Force was approaching bearish domains, but shifted north like all good
bulls do a few days ago. Last Friday’s bearishness is derived from
Mubarak’s expulsion from Egypt’s leadership position. That was emotional.
It was solidly bullish since then even though oil prices fell.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 66.3% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 29.9%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.16 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 2.2% since that
sell signal.
It
fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into
bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish
domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the
past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the
Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the
Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec
2008.
The
Near-term Green curve continues moving south. Force shifted south last
Friday. That should invigorate the gold bear but that has been disrupted
by a bullish spurt.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 3.1% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 10.2% since
then. It was aggressively bearish in five of the past ten trading days.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 38.2% since then. It finally succumbed to
single digit status at $9.98 on Monday. After rebounding to $10.00
yesterday, it again returned to single digit status at $9.86 today.
Attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly
supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet
supportive of QID’s bullish desires.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 64.5% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior.
Major ETF Events
Feb 16,
2010-Wed-None.
Feb 15,
2010-Tue-None.
Feb 14, 2010-Mon-The
prior statement erroneously stated Friday’s behavior paralleled the 1970’s
stock market. It should have stated Friday’s behavior … paralleled the
1980’s stock market.
Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Oil
down, gold down, energy sector down while stock market was up. This all
relates to Mubarak’s resignation as Egypt’s dictator. These configurations
also parallel the 1970’s stock market.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 16, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International
related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have
endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD
on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before
selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.
-Reverse Tangential
Bearish Detection
–
This phenomenon will
continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being.
The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and
ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The
presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This
phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep
in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem
is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the
shifting political cycles.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and
Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart
contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals
for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
The
tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the
Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and
reverse tangential bearish detectors.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
02/16/2011
Feb 15, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 11 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
There is nothing
different today.
This bull remains
dominant with the exception of the Dow Utilities and international related
funds. Utilities’ Force Vector fell into bearish domains and Pressure is
nearing same. Other than Utilities all else remains bullish.
As stated last
Wednesday, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly
bearish.”
ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong,
ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets,
and
ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil
are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could
be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these
funds be bearish by themselves?”
ETF#06-EWJ-Japan
remains with bullish configurations, while
ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan
took it on the chin last Thursday by the bear. However, it remains as a
Red Bull and thus no sell signal, but getting close.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 16.2% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 18.4-weeks ago. That annualizes to 45.6%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is down 24.6% since its bear signal 21.7-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is down 24.6% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 18.1% since
their bull signals an average of 22.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 42.0%.
Short-term Market
Summary
The
majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull.
Force Vector remains directionally mixed with most supporting the bull,
but a few expressing some bearish interest. Vector Pressure is relatively
high and protective of bull’s continuation.
Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering may renew.
The VIX is poised for some bullish behavior. It has been mildly bullish
the past few days.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time
being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated
the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near
holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers
potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level
remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the
bull.
Feb
15, 2011-Tue-Same as yesterday.
Feb
14, 2011-Mon-Depressed volume continues, but does nothing to threaten
bullish bias.
Feb
11, 2011-Fri-Volume was again slightly above recent averages, but
remaining well below historical averages on solid bullish behavior. Such
behavior remains as stock market bias.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 19.3% since their buy signals an average of 21.5-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 46.8%.
The
NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 15.7% since
their sell signals an average of 10.5-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 22.1%
since their buy signals an average of 29.6-weeks ago. This annualizes at
38.9%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.4% since their sell
signals an average of 43.8-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 24-Red Bulls (flat today), mitigating
dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 23-NTI Blue Bulls (flat
today) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.
Bearish spurt potential remains. Configurations are shifting again in
favor of the bear. The absence of bullish unity remains with some
non-contrarian ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly
international related funds. Bearish unity also does not exist. Therefore,
the bear cannot dominate.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
38.4%, annualizing at 90.3%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in three of the
prior five weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull.
Force was approaching bearish domains, but shifted north like all good
bulls do. Last Friday’s bearishness is derived from Mubarak’s expulsion
from Egypt’s leadership position. That was emotional. It was solidly
bullish today even though oil prices fell.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 66.1% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 29.9%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.11 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 2.1% since that
sell signal.
It
fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into
bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish
domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the
past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the
Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the
Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec
2008.
The
Near-term Green curve continues moving south. Force shifted south last
Friday. That should invigorate the gold bear but that has been disrupted
by a bullish spurt.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 2.8% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 9.9% since
then. It was aggressively bearish in four of the past nine trading days.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 37.3% since then. It finally succumbed to
single digit status at $9.98 on Monday, but apparently did not find
comfort with a bullish response to $10.00 today. Attributes are no longer
solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The
overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 65.0% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior.
Major ETF Events
Feb 15,
2010-Tue-None.
Feb 14, 2010-Mon-The
prior statement erroneously stated Friday’s behavior paralleled the 1970’s
stock market. It should have stated Friday’s behavior … paralleled the
1980’s stock market.
Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Oil
down, gold down, energy sector down while stock market was up. This all
relates to Mubarak’s resignation as Egypt’s dictator. These configurations
also parallel the 1970’s stock market.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 15, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International
related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have
endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD
on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before
selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.
-Reverse Tangential
Bearish Detection
–
This phenomenon will
continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being.
The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and
ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The
presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This
phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep
in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem
is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the
shifting political cycles.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and
Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart
contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals
for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
The
tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the
Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and
reverse tangential bearish detectors.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
02/15/2011
Feb 14, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 10 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
This bull remains
dominant with the exception of the Dow Utilities and international related
funds. Utilities’ Force Vector fell into bearish domains and Pressure is
nearing same. Other than Utilities all else remains bullish.
As stated last
Wednesday, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly
bearish.”
ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong,
ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets,
and
ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil
are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could
be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these
funds be bearish by themselves?”
ETF#06-EWJ-Japan
remains with bullish configurations, while
ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan
took it on the chin last Thursday by the bear. However, it remains as a
Red Bull and thus no sell signal, but getting close.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 16.5% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 18.3-weeks ago. That annualizes to 46.9%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is down 26.8% since its bear signal 21.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is down 26.8% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 18.4% since
their bull signals an average of 22.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 43.0%.
Short-term Market
Summary
The
majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull.
Force Vector is directionally mixed with most supporting the bull, but a
few expressing some bearish interest.
Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering may renew.
The VIX is poised for some bullish behavior. That is a change from bullish
aggression late last week.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time
being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated
the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near
holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers
potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level
remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the
bull.
Feb
14, 2011-Mon-Depressed volume continues, but does nothing to threaten
bullish bias.
Feb
11, 2011-Fri-Volume was again slightly above recent averages, but
remaining well below historical averages on solid bullish behavior. Such
behavior remains as stock market bias.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 19.8% since their buy signals an average of 21.3-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 48.2%.
The
NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 16.0% since
their sell signals an average of 10.3-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 22.4%
since their buy signals an average of 29.4-weeks ago. This annualizes at
39.6%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.6% since their sell
signals an average of 43.7-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 24-Red Bulls (lost one on Fri), mitigating
dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 23-NTI Blue Bulls (lost one
today) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.
Bearish spurt potential remains. Configurations are shifting again in
favor of the bear. The absence of bullish unity remains with some
non-contrarian ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly
international related funds. Bearish unity also does not exist. Therefore,
the bear cannot dominate.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
39.8%, annualizing at 94.3%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in three of the
prior five weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull.
Force was approaching bearish domains, but shifted north like all good
bulls do. Last Friday’s bearishness is derived from Mubarak’s expulsion
from Egypt’s leadership position. That was emotional. It was solidly
bullish today even though oil prices fell.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 64.8% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 29.4%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.06 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 1.3% since that
sell signal.
It
fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into
bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish
domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the
past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the
Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the
Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec
2008.
The
Near-term Green curve continues moving south. Force shifted south last
Friday. That should invigorate the gold bear.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 3.2% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 10.3% since
then. It was aggressively bearish in four of the past eight trading days.
It was not contrarian this Friday, paralleling stock market bullishness.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 37.4% since then. It finally succumbed to
single digit status at $9.98. Attributes are no longer solidly bearish,
while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock
market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 65.4% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior.
Major ETF Events
Feb 14, 2010-Mon-The
prior statement erroneously stated Friday’s behavior paralleled the 1970’s
stock market. It should have stated Friday’s behavior … paralleled the
1980’s stock market.
Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Oil
down, gold down, energy sector down while stock market was up. This all
relates to Mubarak’s resignation as Egypt’s dictator. These configurations
also parallel the 1970’s stock market.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 14, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International
related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have
endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD
on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before
selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.
-Reverse Tangential
Bearish Detection
–
This phenomenon will
continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being.
The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and
ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The
presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This
phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep
in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem
is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the
shifting political cycles.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and
Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart
contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals
for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
The
tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the
Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and
reverse tangential bearish detectors.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
02/14/2011
Feb 11, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 09 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Force Vectors appear
to be peaking. Do not be surprised at non-bullishness to bearish
expressions in the next few days. Stock market bearish expressions remain
the same on the near-term horizon. They will be harmless and
unsustainable. However, the expulsion of Egypt’s dictator generated a
bullish response.
As stated last
Wednesday, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly
bearish.”
ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong,
ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets,
and
ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil
are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could
be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these
funds be bearish by themselves?”
ETF#06-EWJ-Japan
remains with bullish configurations, while
ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan
took it on the chin last Thursday by the bear. However, it remains as a
Red Bull and thus no sell signal, but getting close.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 16.4% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 17.8-weeks ago. That annualizes to 47.7%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is down 27.8% since its bear signal 21.1-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is down 27.8% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 18.3% since
their bull signals an average of 21.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 43.6%.
Short-term Market
Summary
The
majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull.
However, Force Vectors are tiring and some are shifting south with
possible motivations for the bear to exert some influence. However, the
stock market bull and populace rejoiced with the expulsion of a dictator.
The expulsion of any dictator is always a positive, but celebrations are
usually premature because the world’s populace continues replacing them
with yet another.
Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering may renew.
The VIX is poised for some bullish aggression in spite of it disappointing
with today’s bearish expression. Much of that was also tied to events in
Egypt.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time
being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated
the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near
holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers
potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level
remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the
bull.
Feb
11, 2011-Fri-Volume was again slightly above recent averages, but
remaining well below historical averages on solid bullish behavior. Such
behavior remains as stock market bias.
Feb
10, 2011-Thu-Volume was up a bit, but certainly without directional
conviction. Flat behavior on aroused volume is a lot of guess work by
many. Bullish bias prevails.
Feb
09, 2011-Wed-Again very low volume on flat behavior retains bullish bias.
Feb
08, 2011-Tue-Low volume continues pushing the stock market higher. That is
a mild aura of suspicion surrounding that, but most of the other
attributes strongly support the bull.
Feb
07, 2011-Mon-Below average volume on mild bullishness. Bullish bias
prevails.
Feb
04, 2011-Fri-Mediocre volume on mixed stock market behavior does not
disrupt prevailing bullish bias.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 19.5% since their buy signals an average of 20.9-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 48.4%.
The
NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 16.0% since
their sell signals an average of 9.9-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 22.1%
since their buy signals an average of 29.0-weeks ago. This annualizes at
39.7%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.5% since their sell
signals an average of 43.2-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 24-Red Bulls (lost one on Fri), mitigating
dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 24-NTI Blue Bulls (flat on
Fri) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.
Bearish spurt potential remains. Configurations are shifting again in
favor of the bear. The absence of bullish unity remains with some
non-contrarian ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly
international related funds. Bearish unity does not exist. Therefore, the
bear cannot dominate.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
36.8%, annualizing at 88.9%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in two of the prior
four weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull. Force
is approaching bearish domains. Friday’s bearishness is derived from
Mubarak’s expulsion from Egypt’s leadership position.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 64.1% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 29.1%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.02 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 0.9% since that
sell signal.
It
fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into
bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish
domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the
past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the
Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the
Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec
2008.
The
Near-term Green curve continues moving south. Force shifted south this
Friday. That should invigorate the gold bear.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 3.3% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 10.4% since
then. It was aggressively bearish in four of the past seven trading days.
It was not contrarian this Friday, paralleling stock market bullishness.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 37.2% since then. Without a reverse split,
this ETF appears to be in search of single digit status. It is now at
$10.02. All that is needed for single digit status is three more pennies
down. All attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly
supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet
supportive of QID’s bullish desires.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 65.1% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior.
Major ETF Events
Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Oil
down, gold down, energy sector down while stock market was up. This all
relates to Mubarak’s resignation as Egypt’s dictator. This configurations
also parallel the 1970’s stock market.
Feb 10,
2011-Thu-Although there was no sell signal,
ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan
fell significantly today. It endured the largest price decline today, but
it remains as a Red Bull.
Feb 9,
2011-Wed-Another international ETF,
#13-EWH-Hong Kong,
received a sell signal today.
Feb 8, 2011-Tue-None
Feb 7,
2011-Mon-Contrarian indices VIX and TLT were not contrarian.
Feb 4, 2011-Fri-GLD
did encounter additional bearishness as expected. VIX Force dipped into
bearish domains and fell below Pressure. A non-bullish response by the VIX
early next week would be surprising. That suggests some stock market
bearishness, which would be configured as a mere spurt.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 11, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. Internationally
related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have
endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD
on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before
selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.
-Reverse Tangential
Bearish Detection
–
This phenomenon will
continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being.
The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and
ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The
presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This
phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep
in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem
is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the
shifting political cycles.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and
Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart
contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals
for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
The
tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the
Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and
reverse tangential bearish detectors.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
02/11/2011
Feb 10, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 08 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Force Vectors appear
to be peaking. Do not be surprised at non-bullishness to bearish
expressions in the next few days. Stock market bearish expressions remain
the same on the near-term horizon. They will be harmless and
unsustainable.
As stated yesterday,
“on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish.
ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong,
ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets,
and
ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil
are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could
be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these
funds be bearish by themselves?”
ETF#06-EWJ-Japan
remains with bullish configurations, while
ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan
took it on the chin today by the bear. However, it remains as a Red Bull
and thus no sell signal, but getting close.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 15.6% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 17.7-weeks ago. That annualizes to 46.0%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is down 25.9% since its bear signal 21.0-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is down 25.9% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 17.5% since
their bull signals an average of 21.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 42.1%.
Short-term Market
Summary
The
majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull.
However, Force Vectors are tiring and some are shifting south with
possible motivations for the bear to exert some influence.
Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering may renew.
The VIX is poised for some bullish aggression.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time
being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated
the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near
holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers
potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level
remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the
bull.
Feb
10, 2011-Thu-Volume was up a bit, but certainly without directional
conviction. Flat behavior on aroused volume is a lot of guess work by
many. Bullish bias prevails.
Feb
09, 2011-Wed-Again very low volume on flat behavior retains bullish bias.
Feb
08, 2011-Tue-Low volume continues pushing the stock market higher. That is
a mild aura of suspicion surrounding that, but most of the other
attributes strongly support the bull.
Feb
07, 2011-Mon-Below average volume on mild bullishness. Bullish bias
prevails.
Feb
04, 2011-Fri-Mediocre volume on mixed stock market behavior does not
disrupt prevailing bullish bias.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 18.8% since their buy signals an average of 20.8-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 47.2%.
The
NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 16.6% since
their sell signals an average of 9.8-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 21.4%
since their buy signals an average of 28.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at
38.6%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.6% since their sell
signals an average of 43.1-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 25-Red Bulls (flat today), mitigating
dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 24-NTI Blue Bulls (lost one
today) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.
Bearish spurt potential remains. Configurations are shifting again in
favor of the bear. The absence of bullish unity remains with some
non-contrarian ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly
international related funds. Bearish unity does not exist. Therefore, the
bear cannot dominate.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
36.8%, annualizing at 89.6%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in two of the prior
four weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull.
Another mild attack occurred yesterday with Force falling below Pressure.
Today’s bullish behavior suggests that invigorated the bull.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 64.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 29.5%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $122.97 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 1.3% since that
sell signal.
It
fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into
bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish
domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the
past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the
Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the
Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec
2008.
As
stated last Thu, do not be surprised at more bearish aggression. You saw
some of that last Friday and more should not be surprising. Yesterday’s
bullishness invigorated the gold bear on a near-term basis with mild
bearishness today. NTI Green continues moving south. The bullish Force
cycle is maturing and conflicting with Pressure’s decline. Do not be
surprised at bearish behavior in the next few days.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 4.7% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 11.6% since
then. It was aggressively bearish in four of the past six trading days.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 36.3% since then. Without a reverse split,
this ETF appears to be in search of single digit status. It is now at
$10.16, losing 4-cents today. All attributes are no longer solidly
bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall
stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 64.5% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior.
Major ETF Events
Feb 10,
2011-Thu-Although there was no sell signal,
ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan
fell significantly today. It endured the largest price decline today, but
it remains as a Red Bull.
Feb 9,
2011-Wed-Another international ETF,
#13-EWH-Hong Kong,
received a sell signal today.
Feb 8, 2011-Tue-None
Feb 7,
2011-Mon-Contrarian indices VIX and TLT were not contrarian.
Feb 4, 2011-Fri-GLD
did encounter additional bearishness as expected. VIX Force dipped into
bearish domains and fell below Pressure. A non-bullish response by the VIX
early next week would be surprising. That suggests some stock market
bearishness, which would be configured as a mere spurt.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 10, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. Internationally
related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have
endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD
on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before
selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.
-Reverse Tangential
Bearish Detection
–
This phenomenon will
continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being.
The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and
ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The
presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This
phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep
in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem
is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the
shifting political cycles.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and
Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart
contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals
for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
The
tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the
Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and
reverse tangential bearish detectors.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
02/10/2011
Feb 9, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 07 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
As stated last
Monday, attributes highlighting bearish pestering have subsided. That does
not mean pestering will discontinue, but it does suggests any stock market
bearish expressions on the near-term horizon will be harmless and
unsustainable.
On the other hand,
international ETF’s are increasingly bearish.
ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong received a sell signal today. This ETF joined
currently avoided
ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets and
ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil. Although exchange rates could be contributing to
their distress, the burning question is, “can these funds be bearish by
themselves?”
ETF#06-EWJ-Japan and
ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan remain with strong bullish configurations. Those two
countries remain as productivity leaders and thus with stronger
currencies.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 15.3% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 17.5-weeks ago. That annualizes to 45.4%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is down 26.9% since its bear signal 20.9-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is down 26.9% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 17.2% since
their bull signals an average of 21.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 41.6%.
Short-term Market
Summary
The
majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull.
Some Force Vectors shifted from lateral behavior to a more bullish
configuration late last week. This was obviously inspirational to the
bull.
Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering has
subsided. However, there is not much downside left for contrarian VIX.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time
being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated
the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near
holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers
potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level
remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the
bull.
Feb
09, 2011-Wed-Again very low volume on flat behavior retains bullish bias.
Feb
08, 2011-Tue-Low volume continues pushing the stock market higher. That is
a mild aura of suspicion surrounding that, but most of the other
attributes strongly support the bull.
Feb
07, 2011-Mon-Below average volume on mild bullishness. Bullish bias
prevails.
Feb
04, 2011-Fri-Mediocre volume on mixed stock market behavior does not
disrupt prevailing bullish bias.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 18.7% since their buy signals an average of 20.6-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 47.3%.
The
NTI is avoiding six ETF’s. They are down by an average of 18.7% since
their sell signals an average of 11.2-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 21.4%
since their buy signals an average of 28.7-weeks ago. This annualizes at
38.8%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.2% since their sell
signals an average of 43.0-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 25-Red Bulls (flat today), mitigating
dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 24-NTI Blue Bulls (lost one
today) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.
Bearish spurt potential remains, but configurations shifted more in favor
of the bull. The absence of bullish unity remains with some non-contrarian
ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly international related
funds.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
35.4%, annualizing at 86.8%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in two of the prior
four weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull.
Another mild attack is now occurring as Force fell below Pressure.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 65.0% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 29.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $122.92 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 1.4% since that
sell signal.
It
fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into
bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish
domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the
past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the
Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the
Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec
2008.
As
stated last Thu, do not be surprised at more bearish aggression. You saw
some of that last Friday and more should not be surprising. Yesterday’s
bullishness invigorated the gold bear on a near-term basis with mild
bearishness today. NTI Green continues moving south. The bullish Force
cycle is maturing and conflicting with Pressure’s decline.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 3.6% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 10.6% since
then. It was aggressively bearish in three of the past five trading days.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 36.1% since then. Without a reverse split,
this ETF appears to be in search of single digit status. It is now at
$10.20, gaining 4-cents today. All attributes are no longer solidly
bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall
stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 64.5% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior.
Major ETF Events
Feb 9,
2011-Wed-Another international ETF,
#13-EWH-Hong Kong, received a sell signal today.
Feb 8, 2011-Tue-None
Feb 7,
2011-Mon-Contrarian indices VIX and TLT were not contrarian.
Feb 4, 2011-Fri-GLD
did encounter additional bearishness as expected. VIX Force dipped into
bearish domains and fell below Pressure. A non-bullish response by the VIX
early next week would be surprising. That suggests some stock market
bearishness, which would be configured as a mere spurt.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 7, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. There were two
several days ago for internationally related ETF’s and they remain
configured with weak bullish support. For those of you who bought GLD on
Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before
selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.
-Reverse Tangential
Bearish Detection
–
This phenomenon will
continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being.
The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and
ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The
presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This
phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep
in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem
is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the
shifting political cycles.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and
Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart
contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals
for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
The
tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the
Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and
reverse tangential bearish detectors.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
02/09/2011
Feb 8, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 02, Issue 06 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
©
The Indicant Stock Market Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
As stated last
Monday, attributes highlighting bearish pestering have subsided. That does
not mean pestering will discontinue, but it does suggests any stock market
bearish expressions on the near-term horizon will be harmless and
unsustainable.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.
The
Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian
indices. These bulls are up 15.5% since the NTI signaled bull an average
of 17.4-weeks ago. That annualizes to 46.4%. The lone bear is contrarian
VIX. It is down 27.2% since its bear signal 20.7-weeks ago. The VIX was
contrarian today with a solid bearish expression, countering yesterday’s
non-contrarian behavior.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It
is down 27.2% since that bear signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian
indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 17.4% since
their bull signals an average of 21.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 42.4%.
Short-term Market
Summary
The
majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull.
Some Force Vectors shifted from lateral behavior to a more bullish
configuration late last week. This was obviously inspirational to the
bull.
Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering has
subsided. However, there is not much downside left for contrarian VIX.
Indicant Volume Indicators
This has been a low
volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in
support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time
being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated
the past few days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near
holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers
potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level
remains subdued.
Feb
08, 2011-Tue-Low volume continues pushing the stock market higher. That is
a mild aura of suspicion surrounding that, but most of the other
attributes strongly support the bull.
Feb
07, 2011-Mon-Below average volume on mild bullishness. Bullish bias
prevails.
Feb
04, 2011-Fri-Mediocre volume on mixed stock market behavior does not
disrupt prevailing bullish bias.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 19.0% since their buy signals an average of 20.7-weeks ago.
This annualizes at 47.7%.
The
NTI is avoiding six ETF’s. They are down by an average of 18.0% since
their sell signals an average of 11.1-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 22.1%
since their buy signals an average of 28.6-weeks ago. This annualizes at
40.2%.
The
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all
contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.5% since their sell
signals an average of 42.8-weeks ago.
Short-term Summary: There are 25-Red Bulls (lost one today, flat in the
prior four days), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The
25-NTI Blue Bulls (gained one today) continue mitigating dominance by the
stock market bear.
Bearish spurt potential remains, but configurations shifted more in favor
of the bull. The absence of bullish unity remains with some non-contrarian
ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly international related
funds.
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources.
The
Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up
37.2%, annualizing at 91.7%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull
status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot
find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains
solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in two of the prior
four weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is
up 65.1% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 29.7%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $122.87 and still rising, albeit
slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price
approximates $80.65.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 1.5% since that
sell signal.
It
fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into
bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish
domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the
past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the
Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the
Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec
2008.
As
stated last Thu, do not be surprised at more bearish aggression. You saw
some of that last Friday and more should not be surprising. Today’s
bullishness should invigorate the gold bear on a near-term basis. NTI
Green continues moving south. The bullish Force cycle is maturing and
conflicting with Pressure’s decline.
Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the
actual price of gold.
As
stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term
holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in
its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not
want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential
when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period.
However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity
will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in
mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar
will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as
this paragraph is now being challenged.
Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle.
In
reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political
influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak
from 1492.
If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south,
currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The
Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure
strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that
will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in
U.S. dollars.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price
fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 4.4% since that sell signal. It is a
Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 11.4% since
then. It was aggressively bearish in three of the past four trading days.
The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#31-QID
on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 36.3% since then. Without a reverse split,
this ETF appears to be in search of single digit status. It is now at
$10.16. All attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet
strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet
supportive of QID’s bullish desires.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for
ETF#32-VXX.
It is down 64.6% since then. Pressure remains low and not capable of
extensive bullish behavior.
Major ETF Events
Feb 8, 2011-Tue-None
Feb 7,
2011-Mon-Contrarian indices VIX and TLT were not contrarian.
Feb 4, 2011-Fri-GLD
did encounter additional bearishness as expected. VIX Force dipped into
bearish domains and fell below Pressure. A non-bullish response by the VIX
early next week would be surprising. That suggests some stock market
bearishness, which would be configured as a mere spurt.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 7, 2011-Holding
remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for
the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green
with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. There were two
several days ago for internationally related ETF’s and they remain
configured with weak bullish support. For those of you who bought GLD on
Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before
selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.