Feb 29, 2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 20 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

Today's Report

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Three of thirty; One is non-contrarian. Bullish support near nil.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twenty-two of thirty supporting the bear.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is -8.4%, supporting bear.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential -3.6%, offering no bullish support.

Force Vectors: As stated last Friday, February 24 the bullish bounce the first three days of this past week should not have been surprising. As stated last Wednesday, pinnacled Force Vectors should invite bearishness, which you saw on Thursday and Friday of this past week.

Vector Pressure: Eleven in bullish domains. Nineteen in bearish domains. As stated last Wednesday, the steady rise the past few days has been lethargic, suggesting bullish behavior is a mere bullish spurt.

Long-term Hold Positions: Continue holding, except where sell signals are noted.

Immediate Tactics: Sell aggressively on signals.

Current Quick-term Bias: Configurations continue favoring the bear.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: 8/15/06 –bullish-bias expired on 01/04/08.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.

Volume: Bearish bias dominant.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on Friday, January 4, 2008 for both major indices. The Dow is down 4.2% and the NASDAQ is down 9.3%, respectively, since that bear signal.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

As stated the past several days, both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  continue in their lethargic pattern, suggesting diminishing interest in either dynamic bearish or bullish direction. After see-sawing this week, the NASDAQ remains about where it was about seven weeks ago. Friday’s 315.79-point drop put the Dow down by 114.63-points for the week. Volume was high on Friday’s bearish aggression, which supports bearish bias.

As stated the past few days, the market appears nestled in a comfort zone. The angular nature of the deep bearish cycle should be disrupted within a week or two. This should facilitate the development of a new short-trend. That does not mean that trend will be bullish. All this means is that the trend will be different from the bearish one now underway.

The NYSE found discomfort approaching its bullish red curve last Thursday. As stated last Wednesday, the last two times that contact was actually made infuriated the bear. If contact is made, it will be interesting to see how much energy the bear has. As stated last Thursday, the suspense has ended. The bear got infuriated just by it getting close to the bullish red curve Thursday with a 112-point drop in the Dow and a 315.79-point drop on Friday. As stated last Thursday, economic fundamentals are just too sour for bullish inspiration. Unfortunately, the bear has tremendous energy.

Please read on.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and two sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 10-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 56.6% (annualized at 16.4%) since their respective buy signals an average of 177.1-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signals, the SQI is avoiding 18-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 4.2% since their sell signals an average of 10.0-weeks ago.

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and two sell signals.  Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 13-ETF’s. They are up an average of 138.6% (annualized 45.5%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 156.5-weeks ago.  In addition to the sell signals, there are 15-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 6.5% since their sell signals an average of 10.8-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for only five-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 65.0% (annualized at 41.6%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 80.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 25-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 5.5% since their sell signals an average of 9.0-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

Three ETF’s with Quick-term Indicant avoid signals are up by an average of 5.2%. That means the Quick-term Indicant is wrong on three ETF’s. As stated since last Tuesday, one in particular is interesting. It is ETF#28-Pacific-Asia-EX-Japan. Click the link in the preceding sentence to view its chart. It is up a whopping 11.1% since the QTI signaled sell on Dec 17, 2007. It lost a full percentage point on Thursday’s bearishness and nearly two percentage points on Friday’s aggressive bearish behavior. It remains up, though, by a healthy amount. As you can see from the chart, though, its bullish red curve acted as a ceiling.

It has bullish robust Force Vector behavior and was barely a red bull as of last Thursday. Its red bull status expired with Friday’s bearish aggression.

ETF’s cannot be manipulated like stocks. The QTI would have normally signaled buy several days ago, but synergistic convergence was absent from the bullish spurt during the first three days of this past week. The Short-term Indicant, with fewer constraints, signaled buy on February 22, 2008.

As of last Wednesday, the QTI was reading bullish spurt due to the absence of bullish synergistic convergence. This daily stock market report advised last Wednesday, ETF#28’s Force Vector should be at a pinnacle. If so, it will be interesting to see if its Force Vector behavior is congruent with its price behavior. This will be tracked until a foundation for sustainability is formed.

Its Force Vector is moving south, along with the price. Thus it is congruent, which means it will most likely rebound before falling into negative territory. This may become an excellent long-term buy candidate.

As stated last Tuesday, another key ETF to monitor for the next few days is ETF#31-QID, which is purely contrarian to the stock market; specifically ETF#01-QQQQ. QID is named Bear Market. It only goes up during bear markets. Clicking this sentence will take you to its QTI chart. As you can see, it remains a red bull. Last Tuesday it was stated, it is configuring as a weakening bull, but quite often, such weakening invigorates the bull. Red bulls should never be challenged. Even when weakening, they can bounce north quickly and viciously. That will happen if the market turns bearish. You saw that with aggressive bearish behavior on Thursday and Friday of this past week.

Both of these ETF’s will be tracked for the next few days. If ETF#31 loses its red bull status, the market will have an increased probability of moving bullishly with some sustainability. As stated the past few days, keep in mind, the absence of synergistic convergence will prevent dynamic bullish behavior. Solid bulls use the bullish red curve as a bouncing point. Keep your eye on this ETF and see if it bounces or falls below its bullish red curve.

As stated last Tuesday, scroll down to view QQQQ from the ETF#31-QID chart. As you can see, QQQQ is pathetic. It is not expressing the same bullish strength in terms of configuration as ETF#28. That is what is meant by synergistic convergence. If all of the non-contrarian ETF’s possessed the same configuration as ETF#28, rest assured a powerful bull market would be in play.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are ten conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This suggests market disharmony. The combined Short/Quick Indicant models identify 31-hold signals and 55-avoid signals, providing a bearish edge. The bullish bias shift on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008. Please read on.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Twenty-two of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. That is an increase by four from last Tuesday. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by 1.1%. After enjoying three successive days of victorious battles with the bear, the bull succumbed to the bear last Thursday and Friday. This attribute is again configured with bearish support.

Only three of the ETF’s are above their bullish red curves. All thirty ETF average positions are 7.4% below their bullish red curves. Only one is a non-contrarian red bull, now offering only extremely mild bullish inspiration to the stock market. Keep in mind QID is not included in this statistic. It is discussed near the end of this report.

The QTI differential is minus 8.4%, which supports the bear. That support was enhanced with bearish aggression on Thursday and Friday.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

One of the thirty ETF’s is contacting its breakout line. It is contrarian ETF#11,GLD, Precious Metals for the second consecutive day.

After thirty-five consecutive trading day of non-contrarian non-contact, ETF#21-Latin American Stocks made contact on Tuesday and Wednesday of this past week. It is now mired in neutrality.

The average distance from breakout contact is 15.7%. Double digit variances from breakout contact for thirty-eight consecutive trading-days is not supportive of the bull.

None of the ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. Non-contact by non-contrarian ETF’s continues in relaxing bearish influence.

The average distance between the price and breakdown is 12.1%. This configuration is  providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003, but barely hanging on to that support.

The breakout/breakdown differential is negative 3.6%. After four consecutive day of bullish support, it reverted to bearish support on Friday’s aggressive bear.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

Twenty-six Force Vectors are in bullish domains. As stated on Friday Feb 24, 2008, a bullish spurt appears to be underway. You saw bullish spurt behavior on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of last week. The 428-point drop in the Dow last Thursday and Friday interrupted the bullish cycle. That is a classical bullish spurt; short-lived and quickly wiped-out.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were three put option buy signals after Friday’s close.

Eleven of the thirty ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains, which continues configuring in support of the bear. However, that is an increase by eight since January 31, supporting recent bullish expressions. However, as stated most of last week, bullish domain participants remain in the minority suggesting minimal sustainability.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The bullish bias shift that began on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008.

January 30, 2008 – The Fed’s cut in interest rates did not stimulate bullish interest, which is bearish. However, it is better to wait for near-term attributes to mature before resuming written covered call options.

February 12, 2008 – Several Quick-term Indicant attributes are suggesting bullish resurgence. It is too risky to write covered call options at this time.

February 14, 2008 – Bullish behavior on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week was replaced with bearish aggression on Thursday. It is reiterated no foundational structure has configured to obviate the market’s directional propensity. It remains too risky to write options at this time.

February 21, 2008 – Significant put option buy signals in the recent past has been predecessor to significant bearish behavior.

February 22, 2008 – Although the market was significantly bearish on an intraday basis, several configurations shifted away from immediate bearish support.

February 27, 2008 – The Fed is openly biasing in favor of economic support and ignoring inflation. The stock market does not like inflation so this policy will eventually invigorate the bear. The weakening dollar, which is by-product of relaxing rate policies, will add fuel to inflationary pressures.

February 28, 2008 – Like the February 14, 2008 entry above, bullish behavior on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week was followed with bearish aggression today. Bullish spurts are more dramatic than bearish spurts. Thus risks remain high in writing covered call options at this time.

February 29, 2008 – Severe bearishness today, suggests continued volatility and too risky for writing options.

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is now avoiding QQQQ. You will notice the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for ProFunds Ultra Short. Continue holding unless you see a buy signal for QQQQ or sell signal for ProFunds Ultra Short or ETF#31-QID, which is discussed below.

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It is excluded from overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This exclusion is required for convergent/divergent monitoring.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on January 8, 2008 for QID. It is up 17.9% since that buy signal (annualized at 124.0%). This remains a red bull and it is advisable to continue holding.

Feb 4, 2008-QQQQ is approaching its bearish yellow line from below, while QID is approaching its bullish red curve from above. The specific interactions with both of these securities will offer some insight on bearish sustainability.

Feb 5, 2008-Both indices’ behavior was consistent with that of bearish ambition.

Feb 6, 2008-QQQQ reacted bearishly and QID exerted more bullish influence. This behavior is consistent with bearish expectations.

Feb 12, 2008-QID started a quick-term cooling from its red-hot bullish position a few days ago. It is configured to cool. Watch its behavior as it approaches its red bullish curve on the Quick-term Indicant chart. If it bounces north the bear market will persist.

February 28, 2008-QID in fact relaxed, but bounced north before it got to bullish red. Its Force Vector is in bearish domains. Red bulls in bearish domains typically invite more bullishness.

QID is up 4.5% since the Consolidated Indicant signaled buy on January 22, 2008. It is annualizing at 42.8%. The Short-term Indicant again signaled buy today.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Happy Investing,

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

02/29/08

Feb 28, 2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 19 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

Today's Report

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Five of thirty; Two are non-contrarian. Diminutive bullish support.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twenty of thirty supporting the bear. Diminishment disrupted today.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is -4.0%, supporting bear.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential +1.7%, barely supporting bull.

Force Vectors: As stated last Friday, the bullish bounce the first three days of this week should not have been surprising. As stated yesterday, pinnacled Force Vectors should invite bearishness, which you saw today.

Vector Pressure: Eleven in bullish domains. Nineteen in bearish domains. The steady rise the past few days has been lethargic, suggesting bullish behavior is a mere bullish spurt.

Long-term Hold Positions: Continue holding, except where sell signals are noted.

Immediate Tactics: Sell aggressively on signals.

Current Quick-term Bias: Configurations continue favoring the bear.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: 8/15/06 –bullish-bias expired on 01/04/08.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.

Volume: Bearish bias dominant, but weakening with what appears to be returning lethargy.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on Friday, January 4, 2008 for both major indices. The Dow is down 1.7% and the NASDAQ is down 6.9%, respectively, since that bear signal.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

As stated the past several days, both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  continue in their lethargic pattern, suggesting diminishing interest in either dynamic bearish or bullish direction. After see-sawing this week, the NASDAQ remains about where it was about seven weeks ago.

As stated the past few days, the market appears nestled in a comfort zone. The angular nature of the deep bearish cycle should be disrupted within a week or two. This should facilitate the development of a new short-trend. That does not mean that trend will be bullish. All this means is that the trend will be different from the bearish one now underway.

The NYSE found discomfort approaching its bullish red curve. As stated yesterday, the last two times that contact was actually made infuriated the bear. If contact is made, it will be interesting to see how much energy the bear has. The suspense has ended. The bear got infuriated just by it getting close to the bullish red curve today with today’s aggressive bearish behavior. Economic fundamentals are just too sour for bullish inspiration.

Please read on.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 58.1% (annualized at 18.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of 161.7-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding 18-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 1.8% since their sell signals an average of 9.9-weeks ago.

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals.  Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 15-ETF’s. They are up an average of 129.1% (annualized 45.1%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 147.3-weeks ago.  Although there were no sell signals, there are 15-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 4.3% since their sell signals an average of 10.6-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for only five-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 68.9% (annualized at 44.2%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 80.1-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 25-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 3.2% since their sell signals an average of 8.9-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

Four ETF’s with Quick-term Indicant avoid signals are up by an average of 5.8%. That means the Quick-term Indicant is wrong on four ETF’s. As stated since last Tuesday, one in particular is interesting. It is ETF#28-Pacific-Asia-EX-Japan. Click the link in the preceding sentence to view its chart. It is up a whopping 13.3% since the QTI signaled sell on Dec 17, 2007. It lost a full percentage point with today’s bearishness. It has bullish robust Force Vector behavior and is barely a red bull. ETF’s cannot be manipulated like stocks. The QTI would have normally signaled buy several days ago, but synergistic convergence is absent from this bullish rally. The Short-term Indicant, with fewer constraints, signaled buy on February 22, 2008.

The QTI is reading bullish spurt due to the absence of bullish synergistic convergence. ETF#28’s Force Vector should be at a pinnacle. If so, it will be interesting to see if its Force Vector behavior is congruent with its price behavior. This will be tracked until a foundation for sustainability is formed.

As stated last Tuesday, another key ETF to monitor for the next few days is ETF#31-QID, which is purely contrarian to the stock market; specifically ETF#01-QQQQ. QID is named Bear Market. It only goes up during bear markets. Clicking this sentence will take you to its QTI chart. As you can see, it remains a red bull. Last Tuesday it was stated, it is configuring as a weakening bull, but quite often, such weakening invigorates the bull. Red bulls should never be challenged. Even when weakening, they can bounce north quickly and viciously. That will happen if the market turns bearish. You saw that with today’s aggressive behavior.

Both of these ETF’s will be tracked for the next few days. If ETF#31 loses its red bull status, the market will have an increased probability of moving bullishly with some sustainability. Keep in mind, the absence of synergistic convergence will prevent dynamic bullish behavior. Solid bulls use the bullish red curve as a bouncing point. Keep your eye on this ETF and see if it bounces or falls below its bullish red curve.

As stated last Tuesday, scroll down to view QQQQ from the ETF#31-QID chart. As you can see, QQQQ is pathetic. It is not expressing the same bullish strength in terms of configuration as ETF#28. That is what is meant by synergistic convergence. If all of the non-contrarian ETF’s possessed the same configuration as ETF#28, rest assured a powerful bull market would be in play.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are ten conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This suggests market disharmony. The combined Short/Quick Indicant models identify 35-hold signals and 55-avoid signals, providing a bearish edge. The bullish bias shift on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008. Please read on.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Twenty of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. That is an increase by one from yesterday and by two from last Tuesday. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 1.3%. After enjoying three successive days of victorious battles with the bear, the bull succumbed today.

Only five of the ETF’s are above their bullish red curves. All thirty ETF average positions are 5.2% below their bullish red curves. There are three non-contrarian red bulls, offering some bullish inspiration to the stock market. There is now some mild bullish support developing. Keep in mind QID is not included in this statistic. It is discussed near the end of this report.

The QTI differential is minus 4.0%, which supports the bear. That support was enhanced with today’s aggression by the bear.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

One of the thirty ETF’s is contacting its breakout line. It is contrarian ETF#11,GLD, Precious Metals.

After thirty-five consecutive trading day of non-contrarian non-contact, ETF#21-Latin American Stocks made contact on Tuesday and Wedneday of this week. It fell back into neutrality today, but still remains near-contact.

The average distance from breakout contact is 13.7%. Double digit variances from breakout contact for thirty-seven consecutive trading-days is not supportive of the bull.

None of the ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. Non-contact by non-contrarian ETF’s continues in relaxing bearish influence.

The average distance between the price and breakdown is 14.8%. This configuration is  providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003, but barely hanging on to that support.

The breakout/breakdown differential is positive 1.1%. This is the fourth consecutive day of bullish support but ever-so mildly.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

Twenty-eight Force Vectors are in bullish domains. That is an increase by five from last Tuesday. As stated last Friday, a bullish spurt appears to be underway. Until today’s bearish aggression, the spurt was solid.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no call option buy signals after Thursday’s close.

Today’s bearishness worked out well for yesterday’s two call options. However, you should have offered deeply discounted prices since Force Vector behavior appeared near its peak. Consequently, bullish fuel is running low for a bullish bounce even though in bullish domains.

Eleven of the thirty ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains, which continues configuring in support of the bear. However, that is an increase by eight since January 31, supporting recent bullish expressions. However, bullish domain participants remain in the minority suggesting minimal sustainability.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The bullish bias shift that began on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008.

January 30, 2008 – The Fed’s cut in interest rates did not stimulate bullish interest, which is bearish. However, it is better to wait for near-term attributes to mature before resuming written covered call options.

February 12, 2008 – Several Quick-term Indicant attributes are suggesting bullish resurgence. It is too risky to write covered call options at this time.

February 14, 2008 – Bullish behavior on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week was replaced with bearish aggression on Thursday. It is reiterated no foundational structure has configured to obviate the market’s directional propensity. It remains too risky to write options at this time.

February 21, 2008 – Significant put option buy signals in the recent past has been predecessor to significant bearish behavior.

February 22, 2008 – Although the market was significantly bearish on an intraday basis, several configurations shifted away from immediate bearish support.

February 27, 2008 – The Fed is openly biasing in favor of economic support and ignoring inflation. The stock market does not like inflation so this policy will eventually invigorate the bear. The weakening dollar, which is by-product of relaxing rate policies, will add fuel to inflationary pressures.

February 28, 2008 – Like the February 14, 2008 entry above, bullish behavior on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week was followed with bearish aggression today. Bullish spurts are more dramatic than bearish spurts. Thus risks remain high in writing covered call options at this time.

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is now avoiding QQQQ. You will notice the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for ProFunds Ultra Short. Continue holding unless you see a buy signal for QQQQ or sell signal for ProFunds Ultra Short or ETF#31-QID, which is discussed below.

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It is excluded from overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This exclusion is required for convergent/divergent monitoring.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on January 8, 2008 for QID. It is up 13.4% since that buy signal (annualized at 94.7%). This remains a red bull and it is advisable to continue holding.

Feb 4, 2008-QQQQ is approaching its bearish yellow line from below, while QID is approaching its bullish red curve from above. The specific interactions with both of these securities will offer some insight on bearish sustainability.

Feb 5, 2008-Both indices’ behavior was consistent with that of bearish ambition.

Feb 6, 2008-QQQQ reacted bearishly and QID exerted more bullish influence. This behavior is consistent with bearish expectations.

Feb 12, 2008-QID started a quick-term cooling from its red-hot bullish position a few days ago. It is configured to cool. Watch its behavior as it approaches its red bullish curve on the Quick-term Indicant chart. If it bounces north the bear market will persist.

February 28, 2008-QID in fact relaxed, but bounced north before it got to bullish red. Its Force Vector is in bearish domains. Red bulls in bearish domains typically invite more bullishness.

QID is up 0.5% since the Consolidated Indicant signaled buy on January 22, 2008. The Short-term Indicant signaled sell 2.1-weeks ago and it is up by 4.0% since then. Due to the Quick-term Indicant’s holding and the Short-term Indicant avoiding, the Consolidated Indicant continues to hold until such time the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant are in agreement on directional intensity. Right now, the Quick-term Indicant is retaining a solid hold position due to it being a red bull.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Happy Investing,

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

02/28/08

Feb 27, 2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 18 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

Today's Report

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Near-term attributes: Increasing bullish support.

Quick-term Red Bulls: Five of thirty; Three are non-contrarian. Mild bullish support.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Nineteen of thirty supporting the bear, but diminishing in that support.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is -2.1%, supporting bear, but diminishing.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential +2.7%, supporting bull.

Force Vectors: As stated last Friday, the bullish bounce the first three days of this week should not have been surprising. Force Vectors have pinnacled inviting either flat or bearish behavior.

Vector Pressure: Nine in bullish domains. Twenty-one in bearish domains. Non-bullish, but holding steady and forming a minor base for a bullish bounce.

Long-term Hold Positions: Continue holding, except where sell signals are noted.

Immediate Tactics: Sell aggressively on signals.

Current Quick-term Bias: Configurations continue favoring the bear.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: 8/15/06 –bullish-bias expired on 01/04/08.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.

Volume: Bearish bias dominant, but weakening with what appears to be returning lethargy.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on Friday, January 4, 2008 for both major indices. The Dow is down 0.8% and the NASDAQ is down 6.0%, respectively, since that bear signal.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

As stated the past several days, both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  continue in their lethargic pattern, suggesting diminishing interest in either dynamic bearish or bullish direction. The NASDAQ is about where it was about six weeks ago.

As stated the past few days, the market appears nestled in a comfort zone. The angular nature of the deep bearish cycle should be disrupted within a week or two. This should facilitate the development of a new trend. That does not mean that trend will be bullish. All this means is that the trend will be different from the bearish one now underway.

As stated yesterday, the NYSE is very near to contacting its bullish red curve. The last two times that contact was actually made infuriated the bear. If contact is made, it will be interesting to see how much energy the bear has. One more day of suspense persists. Today’s flatness did nothing to adjust yesterday’s configuration.

Please read on.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 58.9% (annualized at 18.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 161.6-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding 18-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 0.5% since their sell signals an average of 9.7-weeks ago.

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals.  Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 15-ETF’s. They are up an average of 129.3% (annualized 45.2%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 147.1-weeks ago.  Although there were no sell signals, there are 15-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 2.9% since their sell signals an average of 10.5-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for only five-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 67.9% (annualized at 43.6%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 80.0-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 25-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 2.0% since their sell signals an average of 8.7-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

Five ETF’s with Quick-term Indicant avoid signals are up by an average of 3.9%. As stated yesterday, one in particular is interesting. It is ETF#28-Pacific-Asia-EX-Japan. Click the link in the preceding sentence to view its chart. It is up a whopping 14.2% since the QTI signaled sell on Dec 17, 2007. It has bullish robust Force Vector behavior and is barely a red bull. ETF’s cannot be manipulated like stocks. The QTI would have normally signaled buy several days ago, but synergistic convergence is absent from this bullish rally. The Short-term Indicant with fewer constraints signaled buy on February 22, 2008.

The QTI is reading bullish spurt due to the absence of bullish synergistic convergence. ETF#28’s Force Vector should be at a pinnacle. If so, it will be interesting to see if its Force Vector behavior is congruent with its price behavior. This will be tracked until a foundation for sustainability is formed.

Another key ETF to monitor for the next few days is ETF#31-QID, which is purely contrarian to the stock market; specifically ETF#01-QQQQ. QID is named Bear Market. It only goes up during bear markets. Clicking this sentence will take you to its QTI chart. As you can see, it remains a red bull. It is configuring with a weakening bull, but quite often, such weakening invigorates the bull. Red bulls should never be challenged. Even when weakening, they can bounce north quickly and viciously. That will happen if the market turns bearish.

Both of these ETF’s will be tracked for the next few days. If ETF#31 loses its red bull status, the market will have an increased probability of moving bullishly with some sustainability. Keep in mind, the absence of synergistic convergence will prevent dynamic bullish behavior. Solid bulls use the bullish red curve as a bouncing point. Keep your eye on this ETF and see if it bounces or falls below its bullish red curve.

Scroll down to view QQQQ from the ETF#31-QID chart. As you can see, QQQQ is pathetic. It is not expressing the same bullish strength in terms of configuration at ETF#28. That is what is meant by synergistic convergence. If all of the non-contrarian ETF’s possessed the same configuration as ETF#28, rest assured a powerful bull market would be in play.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are ten conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This suggests market disharmony. The combined Short/Quick Indicant models identify 35-hold signals and 55-avoid signals, providing a bearish edge. The bullish bias shift on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008. Please read on.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Nineteen of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. That is an increase by one from yesterday. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 2.1%. The bull has enjoyed three days of success in battles with the bear.

Only five of the ETF’s are above their bullish red curves. All thirty ETF average positions are 4.5% below their bullish red curves. There are three non-contrarian red bulls, offering some bullish inspiration to the stock market. There is now some mild bullish support developing. Keep in mind QID is not included in this statistic. It is discussed near the end of this report.

The QTI differential is minus 2.4%, which supports the bear, but weakening in that support.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

Two of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. One is contrarian and one is not contrarian.

After thirty-five consecutive trading day of non-contrarian non-contact, ETF#21-Latin American Stocks made contact yesterday and again today. This is typically a bullish attribute, but there is a relatively high probability of a bearish response to this.

The average d