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February Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Updates

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Feb 28, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 19 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Non-contrarian Force Vectors remain in bearish domains. They are bearishly mature and most are configuring against continued reductions in force. Pressure is enduring some leakage, but well inside bullish domains. That disallows the bear to dominate.

 

The contrarians, such as TLT, remain with bearish configurations, which bodes well for the stock market bull.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 15.7% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 20.3-weeks ago. That annualizes to 40.3%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 15.5% since its bear signal 23.6-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 15.5% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 17.6% since their bull signals an average of 24.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 37.8%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

Eleven Red Bulls remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. The Near-term cycle remains a bit distressed with only five Blue Bulls.

 

All non-contrarian Force Vectors remain in bearish domains. Some short-term bullish support has been lost, but not enough to signal bears for the major indices. Vector Pressure remains relatively high and protective of bull’s ambition. Force Vectors are bearishly mature, but some are waffling in bearish domains. That remains discerning, but mildly so. Force Vector behavior the next few days is important to this bull cycle. Continued waffling in bearish domains will be bearish.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. The NASDAQ IVI is rising with mixed correlation to bull/bear expressions. The big board’s IVI remains lethargic.

 

Feb 28, 2011-Mon-Volume remains subdued, which does nothing to threaten bullish bias.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 19.2% since their buy signals an average of 22.4-weeks ago. This annualizes at 44.5%.

 

The NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 14.4% since their sell signals an average of 11.7-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 22.7% since their buy signals an average of 31.4-weeks ago. This annualizes at 37.5%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 45.7% since their sell signals an average of 45.7-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 25-Red Bulls (lost one today), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 22-NTI Blue Bulls (gained fourteen since last Fri) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear. It only takes one NTI Blue Bull to discourage excessive behavior by the bear. Nine of them, although not dynamic, provides the bull sufficient security.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 45.0%, annualizing at 97.6%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 70.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 31.5%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.68 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 1.7% since then, annualizing at 59.8%.

 

Near-term attributes for signaling next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

A sound fundamental persists in continued threats to the gold bull. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 0.1% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 7.4% since then.

 

TLT enjoyed dynamic bullishness on stock market bearish aggression this past week. If the stock market bull is aroused, this ETF should resume its bearish cycle. Its configuration, as a stand alone observation, suggests near-term bearishness. Its contrarian nature supports stock market bullish bias.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 36.0% since then. As stated last week, attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires. Interestingly, it received a reverse stock split this past Friday. Its bearish performance had it in single digit ranges a few days week before last. (Less than $10). Now it is above $50 due to the reverse split.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 62.4% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior. Its Force Vector is bullishly mature and tilting south. That should depress the stock market bear.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 28, 2011-Mon-No major events; a minor one is worth noting. TLT crossed QTI Yellow. Current configurations suggest TLT will soon return to its prevailing bearish cycle.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 28, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have endured recent sell signals and are being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

02/28/2011

 

 

Feb 25, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 18 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

As stated on Feb 9, 2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish,” in spite of bullish behavior the past two Fridays.  ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong, ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets, and ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil, and ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates and civil unrest could be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?” If yes, then the stock market can remain bullish, lifting these three funds back into bullish participation at some point. If “no” and they remain bearish, then the overall stock market will follow their bearish path. As stated the past few days, “yes” remains with a mild advantage over “no.”

 

Bearish aggression earlier this week did not do enough to shift the answer to “no.” There are too many Red Bulls and relatively high Vector Pressure for the bear to dominate at this point. ETF#06-EWJ-Japan remains with bullish configurations in spite of its continuing currency strength.

 

Interestingly, several international ETF’s were non-bearish on last Wednesday’s bearish aggression. Many are bumping against auto buy signals. Victims are recent bearishness will do same in days. Some of that occurred this past Friday. However, the NTI Green curve is a point of commonality for that phenomenon.

 

So far, the remaining ETF’s remain with bullish configurations in spite of recent near-term bearish aggression.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 15.1% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 19.8-weeks ago. That annualizes to 39.7%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 11.5% since its bear signal 23.1-weeks ago.

 

As stated last Wednesday, “the VIX was up over 30% on combined Tue-Wed performance. It achieved Red Bull status on Wed, but it did not receive a bull signal. The past few times it crossed above Red, it quickly retreated.” It retreated over 10% this past Thu-Fri.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 11.5% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 17.0% since their bull signals an average of 23.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 37.2%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

Ten Red Bulls remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. The Near-term Bull is distressed as all Blue Bulls evaporated with this bear attack. The Dow Transports lost its Red Bull status this past Wed, citing a direct correlation between rising energy costs and this petro-thirsty sector. It also fell below NTI Green this past Wed, qualifying for a bear signal. However, more bearish synergy is required before the Near-term Indicant signals bear. Interestingly, the Transport Force Vector is bullishly mature, suggesting additional bullish counterattacks to bear’s recent zeal.

 

All non-contrarian Force Vectors are no longer in bullish domains. Some short-term bullish support has been lost, but not enough to signal bears for the major indices. Overall, though, Vector Pressure remains relatively high and protective of bull’s ambition. Unfortunately, Force pierced through Vector Pressure on several indices on Wed. Although discerning, it remains as a minor issue.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. The NASDAQ IVI is rising with mixed correlation to bull/bear expressions. The big board’s IVI remains lethargic.

 

Feb 25, 2011-Fri-Low volume again with a bullish counterattack adds bullish bias support.

 

Feb 24, 2011-Thu-Low volume on mixed behavior is not inspiring the bear. Bullish bias prevails.

 

Feb 23, 2011-Wed-Volume nudge up again, but not robustly on bearish aggression. Again, this is emotionally based and currently without fundamental support. Middle Eastern tensions remain as culprit, but that will eventually settle.

 

Feb 22, 2011-Tue-Volume was up a bit on bearish aggression. In spite of this aggression, bias remains favor of the bull. However, additional bearish aggressions with heightened volume in the next few days could threaten current bullish bias.

 

Feb 18, 2011-Fri-Again, low volume prevails and not disruptive to continuation of stock market bull.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 18.5% since their buy signals an average of 22.0-weeks ago. This annualizes at 43.8%.

 

The NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 14.5% since their sell signals an average of 11.2-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 21.9% since their buy signals an average of 31.0-weeks ago. This annualizes at 36.8%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 42.7% since their sell signals an average of 45.2-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 26-Red Bulls (gained three on Fri after losing three this past week for flat performance), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The five NTI Blue Bulls (lost twenty last Tue-Wed, but gained nine on Fri) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear, but significantly weakened with stock market bearish aggression this past week. Only one NTI Blue Bull can offer resistance to complete near-term bearish domination.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 43.9%, annualizing at 96.9%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 70.3% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 31.4%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.60 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 1.5% since then, annualizing at 75.0%.

 

Near-term attributes for signaling next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

A sound fundamental persists in continued threats to the gold bull. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 0.3% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 7.5% since then.

 

TLT enjoyed dynamic bullishness on stock market bearish aggression this past week. If the stock market bull is aroused, this ETF should resume its bearish cycle. Its configuration as a stand alone observation suggests near-term bearishness.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 35.7% since then. As stated last week, attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires. Interestingly, it received a reverse stock split this past Friday. Its bearish performance had it in single digit ranges a few days week before last. (Less than $10). Now it is above $50 due to the reverse split.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 60.7% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior. Its Force Vector is bullishly mature. That should depress the stock market bear.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 25, 2011-Fri-There were several “minor” events suggesting a continuation of Friday’s bullish counterattack against the bear’s passion this past week. However, the battle bull-bear battle continues.

 

Feb 24, 2011-Thu-There were no major events other than the slowing of bearish ambition.

 

Feb 23, 2011-Wed-Transports fell below NTI Green with Force in bearish domains. However, the absence of bearish synergy prevents bear signal.

 

Feb 22, 2011-Tue-Another international ETF received a sell signal today. It was ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan. Also, the overall stock market was aggressively bearish.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 25, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have endured recent sell signals and are being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

02/25/2011

 

 

Feb 24, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 17 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

As stated on Feb 9, 2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish,” in spite of Friday’s bullish behavior.  ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong, ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets, and ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil, and ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates and civil unrest could be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?” If yes, then the stock market can remain bullish, lifting these three funds back into bullish participation at some point. If no and they remain bearish, then the overall stock market will follow their bearish path. So far, “yes” remains with a mild advantage over “no.”

 

Bearish aggression earlier this week did not do enough to shift the answer to “no.” There are too many Red Bulls and relatively high Vector Pressure for the bear to dominate at this point. ETF#06-EWJ-Japan remains with bullish configurations. 

 

Interestingly, several international ETF’s were non-bearish on Wednesday’s bearish aggression. Many are bumping against auto buy signals. Victims are recent bearishness will do same in days. The NTI Green curve is a point of commonality for that phenomenon

 

So far, the remaining ETF’s remain with bullish configurations in spite of recent near-term bearish aggression.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 13.7% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 19.6-weeks ago. That annualizes to 36.3%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 1.8% since its bear signal 23.0-weeks ago. The VIX was up over 30% on combined Tue-Wed performance. It achieved Red Bull status on Wed, but it did not receive a bull signal. The past few times it crossed above Red, it quickly retreated. It retreated a bit today.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 1.8% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 15.6% since their bull signals an average of 23.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 34.3%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

Nine Red Bulls remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. The Near-term Bull is distressed as all Blue Bulls evaporated with this bear attack. The Dow Transports lost its Red Bull status on Wed, citing a direct correlation between rising energy costs and the energy thirsty sector. It also fell below NTI Green on Wed, qualifying for a bear signal. However, more bearish synergy is required before the Near-term Indicant signals bear.

 

All non-contrarian Force Vectors are no longer in bullish domains. Some short-term bullish support has been lost, but not enough to signal bears for the major indices. Overall, though, Vector Pressure remains relatively high and protective of bull’s ambition. Unfortunately, Force pierced through Vector Pressure on several indices on Wed. Although discerning, it remains as a minor issue.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. The NASDAQ IVI is rising with mixed correlation to bull/bear expressions. The big board’s IVI remains lethargic.

 

Feb 24, 2011-Thu-Low volume on mixed behavior is not inspiring the bear. Bullish bias prevails.

 

Feb 23, 2011-Wed-Volume nudge up again, but not robustly on bearish aggression. Again, this is emotionally based and currently without fundamental support. Middle Eastern tensions remain as culprit, but that will eventually settle.

 

Feb 22, 2011-Tue-Volume was up a bit on bearish aggression. In spite of this aggression, bias remains favor of the bull. However, additional bearish aggressions with heightened volume in the next few days could threaten current bullish bias.

 

Feb 18, 2011-Fri-Again, low volume prevails and not disruptive to continuation of stock market bull.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 16.9% since their buy signals an average of 21.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 40.2%.

 

The NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 14.6% since their sell signals an average of 11.1-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 20.3% since their buy signals an average of 30.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 34.2%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 42.1% since their sell signals an average of 45.1-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 23-Red Bulls (lost three the past three days), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The five NTI Blue Bulls (lost twenty last Tue-Wed) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear, but significantly weakened with stock market bearish aggression this week. Only one NTI Blue Bull can offer resistance to complete near-term bearish domination. So, we still have five of them in support of this effort.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 41.6%, annualizing at 92.5%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 69.2% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 31.0%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.52 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 0.8% since then, annualizing at 47.4%.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

A sound fundamental persists in continued threats to the gold bull. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 0.8% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 8.1% since then.

 

TLT enjoyed bullishness on stock market bearish aggression. If the stock market bull is aroused, this ETF should resume its bearish cycle.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 33.9% since then. As stated last week, attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 58.0% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 24, 2011-Thu-There were no major events other than the slowing of bearish ambition.

 

Feb 23, 2011-Wed-Transports fell below NTI Green with Force in bearish domains. However, the absence of bearish synergy prevents bear signal.

 

Feb 22, 2011-Tue-Another international ETF received a sell signal today. It was ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan. Also, the overall stock market was aggressively bearish.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 24, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have endured recent sell signals and are being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

02/24/2011

 

 

 

Feb 23, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 16 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

As stated on Feb 9, 2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish,” in spite of Friday’s bullish behavior.  ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong, ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets, and ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil, and ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates and civil unrest could be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?” If yes, then the stock market can remain bullish, lifting these three funds back into bullish participation at some point. If no and they remain bearish, then the overall stock market will follow their bearish path. So far, “yes” has a mild advantage over “no.”

 

Bearish aggression did not do enough to shift the answer to “no.” There are too many Red Bulls and relatively high Vector Pressure for the bear to dominate at this point. ETF#06-EWJ-Japan remains with bullish configurations. 

 

Interestingly, several international ETF’s were non-bearish on today’s bearish aggression. Many are bumping against auto buy signals. Victims are recent bearishness will do same in days. The NTI Green curve is a point of commonality for that phenomenon.

 

So far, the remaining ETF’s remain with bullish configurations in spite of recent bearish aggression.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 13.6% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 19.5-weeks ago. That annualizes to 36.3%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is up 1.9% since its bear signal 22.9-weeks ago. The VIX is up over 30% the past two days. It achieved Red Bull status today, but it did not receive a bull signal. The past few times it crossed above Red, it quickly retreated.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is up 1.9% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 15.5% since their bull signals an average of 23.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 34.3%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

Eleven Red Bulls remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. The Near-term Bull is distressed as all Blue Bulls have evaporated with this bear attack. The Dow Transports lost its Red Bull status today, citing a direct correlation between energy costs and energy thirsty sector. It also fell below NTI Green today, qualifying for a bear signal. However, more bearish synergy is required before the Near-term Indicant to signal bear.

 

The majority of Force Vectors no longer remain in bullish domains. Some short-term bullish support has been lost, but not enough to signal bears for the major indices. Overall though, Vector Pressure remains relatively high and protective of bull’s ambition. Unfortunately, Force pierced through Vector Pressure on several indices yesterday. Although discerning, it remains as a minor issue.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. The NASDAQ IVI is rising with mixed correlation to bull/bear expressions. The big board’s IVI remains lethargic.

 

Feb 23, 2011-Wed-Volume nudge up again, but not robustly on bearish aggression. Again, this is emotionally based and currently without fundamental support. Middle Eastern tensions remain as culprit, but that will eventually settle.

 

Feb 22, 2011-Tue-Volume was up a bit on bearish aggression. In spite of this aggression, bias remains favor of the bull. However, additional bearish aggressions with heightened volume in the next few days could threaten current bullish bias.

 

Feb 18, 2011-Fri-Again, low volume prevails and not disruptive to continuation of stock market bull.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 16.9% since their buy signals an average of 21.7-weeks ago. This annualizes at 40.6%.

 

The NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 14.6% since their sell signals an average of 10.9-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 20.4% since their buy signals an average of 30.7-weeks ago. This annualizes at 34.5%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 42.1% since their sell signals an average of 45.0-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 24-Red Bulls (lost two the past two days), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The five NTI Blue Bulls (lost twenty the past two days) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear, but significantly weakened with stock market bearish aggression this week.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 43.7%, annualizing at 97.6%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 70.5% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 31.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.44 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 1.6% since then, annualizing at 111.7%.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

A sound fundamental persists in continued threats to the gold bull. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 1.5% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 8.7% since then.

 

TLT was very bullish on today’s stock market bearish aggression.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 33.2% since then. As stated last week, attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 57.6% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 23, 2011-Wed-Transports fell below NTI Green with Force in bearish domains. However, the absence of bearish synergy prevents bear signal.

 

Feb 22, 2011-Tue-Another international ETF received a sell signal today. It was ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan. Also, the overall stock market was aggressively bearish.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 23, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have endured recent sell signals and are being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

02/23/2011

 

 

Feb 22, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 15 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

As stated on Feb 9, 2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish,” in spite of Friday’s bullish behavior.  ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong, ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets, and ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates and civil unrest could be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?” If yes, then the stock market can remain bullish, lifting these three funds back into bullish participation at some point. If no and they remain bearish, then the overall stock market will follow their bearish path. So far, “yes” has a mild advantage over “no.”

 

Today’s bearish aggression did not do enough to shift the answer to “no.” There are too many Red Bulls and relatively high Vector Pressure for the bear to dominate at this point. However, adding some concern, ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan received a sell signal today, while ETF#06-EWJ-Japan remains with bullish configurations. 

 

So far, the remaining ETF’s remain with bullish configurations.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 14.9% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 19.4-weeks ago. That annualizes to 39.8%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 4.2% since its bear signal 22.7-weeks ago. The VIX was up a whopping 26.6% on today’s stock market bearish aggression. However, its Force Vector is bullishly mature and thus no bull signal for the VIX.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 4.2% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 16.8% since their bull signals an average of 23.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 4.2%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

The majority of Force Vectors no longer remain in bullish domains. Some short-term bullish support has been lost, but not enough to signal bears for the major indices. Overall though, Vector Pressure remains relatively high and protective of bull’s ambition. Unfortunately, Force pierced through Vector Pressure and that is somewhat discerning but not yet major.

 

Several Blue Bulls were lost on today’s stock market bearish aggression. With current short-term configurations, that is a minor concern. As long as prices remain above NTI Green, the short-term will remain in tact.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull.

 

Feb 22, 2011-Tue-Volume was up a bit on bearish aggression. In spite of this aggression, bias remains favor of the bull. However, additional bearish aggressions with heightened volume in the next few days could threaten current bullish bias.

 

Feb 18, 2011-Fri-Again, low volume prevails and not disruptive to continuation of stock market bull.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 17.8% since their buy signals an average of 21.6-weeks ago. This annualizes at 42.9%.

 

The NTI is avoiding six ETF’s. They are down by an average of 17.7% since their sell signals an average of 12.6-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 21.1% since their buy signals an average of 30.6-weeks ago. This annualizes at 35.8%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 42.7% since their sell signals an average of 44.8-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 25-Red Bulls (lost one today), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 12-NTI Blue Bulls (lost thirteen today) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear, but significantly weakened with today’s stock market bearish aggression.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 40.8%, annualizing at 91.8%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish in spite of today’s bearish behavior. This fund did not track to the increase in oil prices.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 69.0% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 30.9%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.36 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 0.6% since then, annualizing at 58.5%.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

A sound fundamental persists in continued threats to the gold bull. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 1.8% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 9.0% since then.

 

TLT was very bullish on today’s stock market bearish aggression.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 34.2% since then. As stated last week, attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 59.4% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior. This ETN continues to not track the VIX.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 22, 2011-Tue-Another international ETF received a sell signal today. It was ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan. Also, the overall stock market was aggressively bearish.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 22, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have endured recent sell signals and are being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

02/22/2011

 

 

Feb 18, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 14 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

This bull remains dominant. Even the weaker Dow Utilities is beginning to display rejections to the bear.  However, international related funds continue lacking bullish ambition.

 

As stated on Feb 9, 2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish,” in spite of Friday’s bullish behavior.  ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong, ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets, and ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?” If yes, then the stock market can remain bullish, lifting these three funds back into bullish participation at some point. If no and they remain bearish, then the overall stock market will follow their bearish path. So far, “yes” has a mild advantage over “no.”

 

ETF#06-EWJ-Japan remains with bullish configurations.  ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan is no longer a Red Bull. Its Force Vector is bearishly mature and due for a rebound. If that rebound does not invigorate the Taiwan bull, it will receive a Near-term sell signal. Its Force Vector is bearishly mature and its rebounding nature will offer more insight of its directional intensity.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 17.5% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 18.8-weeks ago. That annualizes to 48.2%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 24.4% since its bear signal 22.1-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 24.4% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 19.4% since their bull signals an average of 22.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 44.2%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

The majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull. Force Vector remains directionally mixed with most supporting the bull, but a few expressing some bearish interest. The Dow Utilities Force Vector remains in bearish domains even though it was bullish today. Overall though, Vector Pressure is relatively high and protective of bull’s continuation.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the bull.

 

Feb 18, 2011-Fri-Again, low volume prevails and not disruptive to continuation of stock market bull.

 

Feb 17, 2011-Thu-Summer time/holiday volume continues to persist. Although not necessarily disturbing, it is very interesting the strongest bull leg (since Aug 2010) in this bull (starting May 2009) has not garnished much interest. The NASDAQ is setting just under pre-2008-crash levels, while the Big Board remains well below its pre-crash levels. Although not while not yet alarming, this low volume bull cannot persist without volume support. The next time Force Vectors dip into bearish domains on relatively high volume, this bull could expire. Granted much of this bull is generated via “play” money, it is a bull nonetheless. The Indicant never worries about illogical bulls. A bull is a bull, period!

 

Feb 16, 2011-Wed-Volume was up a tad on today’s mild bullishness. Bullish bias remains in effect.

 

Feb 15, 2011-Tue-Same as yesterday.

 

Feb 14, 2011-Mon-Depressed volume continues, but does nothing to threaten bullish bias.

 

Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Volume was again slightly above recent averages, but remaining well below historical averages on solid bullish behavior. Such behavior remains as stock market bias.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated one buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 20.9% since their buy signals an average of 21.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 49.5%.

 

The NTI is avoiding six ETF’s. They are down by an average of 17.7% since their sell signals an average of 12.0-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 23.7% since their buy signals an average of 30.0-weeks ago. This annualizes at 41.1%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.6% since their sell signals an average of 44.2-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 26-Red Bulls (gained one this Fri), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 25-NTI Blue Bulls (lost one on Fri) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 42.2%, annualizing at 97.3%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in three of the prior six weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull. Force was approaching bearish domains, but shifted north like all good bulls do a few days ago. Continued unrest in Meddle East adds to this funds bullishness.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 67.9% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 30.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.29 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy today. Its Force Vector shifted non-bearishly in bullish domains with bullish Vector Pressure. It also resumed its Red Bull status.  Although the gold bear lingers on a near-term basis, it demonstrated an inability to display its ambition the past several days.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

Although the Near-term Indicant signaled buy today, a sound fundamental persists in continued threats to the gold bull. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 3.3% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 10.3% since then.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 37.8% since then. It finally succumbed to single digit status at $9.98 last Monday. After rebounding to $10.00 last Tue, it remains at a single digit status of $9.92. Attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 63.8% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior. This ETN continues to not track the VIX.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 18, 2010-Fri-None.

Feb 17, 2010-Thu-Although economic news was favorable, the bull’s bullishness was mild.

Feb 16, 2010-Wed-None.

Feb 15, 2010-Tue-None.

Feb 14, 2010-Mon-The prior statement erroneously stated Friday’s behavior paralleled the 1970’s stock market. It should have stated Friday’s behavior … paralleled the 1980’s stock market.

Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Oil down, gold down, energy sector down while stock market was up. This all relates to Mubarak’s resignation as Egypt’s dictator. These configurations also parallel the 1970’s stock market.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 18, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

02/18/2011

 

 

Feb 17, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 13 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

This bull remains dominant with the exception of the Dow Utilities and international related funds. Utilities’ Force Vector remains bearish domains and Pressure is nearing same. Other than Utilities all else remains bullish.

 

As stated on Feb 9, 2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish.” ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong, ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets, and ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?” If yes, then the stock market can remain bullish, lifting these three funds back into bullish participation at some point. If no and they remain bearish, then the overall stock market will follow their bearish path. So far, “yes” has a mild advantage over “no.”

 

ETF#06-EWJ-Japan remains with bullish configurations.  ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan is no longer a Red Bull. Its Force Vector is bearishly mature and due for a rebound. If that rebound does not invigorate the Taiwan bull, it will receive a Near-term sell signal. Its Force Vector is bearishly mature and its rebounding nature will offer more insight of its directional intensity.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 17.3% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 18.7-weeks ago. That annualizes to 48.1%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 23.6% since its bear signal 22.0-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 23.6% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 19.2% since their bull signals an average of 22.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 44.1%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

The majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull. Force Vector remains directionally mixed with most supporting the bull, but a few expressing some bearish interest. The Dow Utilities Force Vector remains in bearish domains. Overall though, Vector Pressure is relatively high and protective of bull’s continuation.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the bull.

 

Feb 17, 2011-Thu-Summer time/holiday volume continues to persist. Although not necessarily disturbing, it is very interesting the strongest bull leg (since Aug 2010) in this bull (starting May 2009) has not garnished much interest. The NASDAQ is setting just under pre-2008-crash levels, while the Big Board remains well below its pre-crash levels. Although not while not yet alarming, this low volume bull cannot persist without volume support. The next time Force Vectors dip into bearish domains on relatively high volume, this bull could expire. Granted much of this bull is generated via “play” money, it is a bull nonetheless. The Indicant never worries about illogical bulls. A bull is a bull, period!

 

Feb 16, 2011-Wed-Volume was up a tad on today’s mild bullishness. Bullish bias remains in effect.

 

Feb 15, 2011-Tue-Same as yesterday.

 

Feb 14, 2011-Mon-Depressed volume continues, but does nothing to threaten bullish bias.

 

Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Volume was again slightly above recent averages, but remaining well below historical averages on solid bullish behavior. Such behavior remains as stock market bias.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 20.6% since their buy signals an average of 21.8-weeks ago. This annualizes at 49.4%.

 

The NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 15.1% since their sell signals an average of 10.8-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 23.4% since their buy signals an average of 29.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 40.8%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.6% since their sell signals an average of 44.1-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 25-Red Bulls (gained one today), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 26-NTI Blue Bulls (gained three the past two days) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.

 

Bearish spurt potential remains, albeit without demonstrated abilities. The absence of bullish unity remains with some non-contrarian ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly international related funds. Bearish unity also does not exist. Therefore, the bear cannot dominate.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 41.6%, annualizing at 96.6%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in three of the prior five weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull. Force was approaching bearish domains, but shifted north like all good bulls do a few days ago. Last Friday’s bearishness is derived from Mubarak’s expulsion from Egypt’s leadership position. That was emotional. It was solidly bullish since then even though oil prices fell. Continued unrest in Meddle East adds to this funds bullishness.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 67.4% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 30.4%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.23 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 2.9% since that sell signal.

 

It fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec 2008.

 

The Near-term Green curve continues moving south. That should invigorate the gold bear but that has been disrupted by a bullish spurt.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 3.0% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 10.0% since then.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 38.1% since then. It finally succumbed to single digit status at $9.98 last Monday. After rebounding to $10.00 last Tue, it remains at a single digit status of $9.88. Attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 64.1% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 17, 2010-Thu-Although economic news was favorable, the bull’s bullishness was mild.

Feb 16, 2010-Wed-None.

Feb 15, 2010-Tue-None.

Feb 14, 2010-Mon-The prior statement erroneously stated Friday’s behavior paralleled the 1970’s stock market. It should have stated Friday’s behavior … paralleled the 1980’s stock market.

Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Oil down, gold down, energy sector down while stock market was up. This all relates to Mubarak’s resignation as Egypt’s dictator. These configurations also parallel the 1970’s stock market.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 17, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

02/17/2011

 

 

Feb 16, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 12 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

This bull remains dominant with the exception of the Dow Utilities and international related funds. Utilities’ Force Vector remains bearish domains and Pressure is nearing same. Other than Utilities all else remains bullish.

 

As stated on Feb 9, 2011, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish.” ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong, ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets, and ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?”

 

ETF#06-EWJ-Japan remains with bullish configurations.  ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan is no longer a Red Bull. Its Force Vector is bearishly mature and due for a rebound. If that rebound does not invigorate the Taiwan bull, it will receive a Near-term sell signal.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 16.9% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 18.5-weeks ago. That annualizes to 47.4%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 23.0% since its bear signal 21.9-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 23.0% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 18.8% since their bull signals an average of 22.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 43.5%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

The majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull. Force Vector remains directionally mixed with most supporting the bull, but a few expressing some bearish interest. The Dow Utilities Force Vector is in bearish domains. It was the only major index expressing bearish behavior today. Vector Pressure is relatively high and protective of bull’s continuation.

 

Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering may renew. The VIX is poised for some bullish behavior. It has been mildly bullish the past few days, but the bullish stock market continues to depress its bullish ambition.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the bull.

 

Feb 16, 2011-Wed-Volume was up a tad on today’s mild bullishness. Bullish bias remains in effect.

 

Feb 15, 2011-Tue-Same as yesterday.

 

Feb 14, 2011-Mon-Depressed volume continues, but does nothing to threaten bullish bias.

 

Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Volume was again slightly above recent averages, but remaining well below historical averages on solid bullish behavior. Such behavior remains as stock market bias.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 20.1% since their buy signals an average of 21.6-weeks ago. This annualizes at 48.5%.

 

The NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 15.3% since their sell signals an average of 10.6-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 22.9% since their buy signals an average of 29.7-weeks ago. This annualizes at 40.1%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.7% since their sell signals an average of 44.0-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 24-Red Bulls (flat the past two days), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 25-NTI Blue Bulls (gained two today) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.

 

Bearish spurt potential remains. Configurations are shifting again in favor of the bear. The absence of bullish unity remains with some non-contrarian ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly international related funds. Bearish unity also does not exist. Therefore, the bear cannot dominate.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 40.2%, annualizing at 94.0%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in three of the prior five weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull. Force was approaching bearish domains, but shifted north like all good bulls do a few days ago. Last Friday’s bearishness is derived from Mubarak’s expulsion from Egypt’s leadership position. That was emotional. It was solidly bullish since then even though oil prices fell.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 66.3% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.9%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.16 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 2.2% since that sell signal.

 

It fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec 2008.

 

The Near-term Green curve continues moving south. Force shifted south last Friday. That should invigorate the gold bear but that has been disrupted by a bullish spurt.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 3.1% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 10.2% since then. It was aggressively bearish in five of the past ten trading days.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 38.2% since then. It finally succumbed to single digit status at $9.98 on Monday. After rebounding to $10.00 yesterday, it again returned to single digit status at $9.86 today. Attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 64.5% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 16, 2010-Wed-None.

Feb 15, 2010-Tue-None.

Feb 14, 2010-Mon-The prior statement erroneously stated Friday’s behavior paralleled the 1970’s stock market. It should have stated Friday’s behavior … paralleled the 1980’s stock market.

Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Oil down, gold down, energy sector down while stock market was up. This all relates to Mubarak’s resignation as Egypt’s dictator. These configurations also parallel the 1970’s stock market.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 16, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

02/16/2011

 

 

Feb 15, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 11 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

There is nothing different today.

 

This bull remains dominant with the exception of the Dow Utilities and international related funds. Utilities’ Force Vector fell into bearish domains and Pressure is nearing same. Other than Utilities all else remains bullish.

 

As stated last Wednesday, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish.” ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong, ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets, and ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?”

 

ETF#06-EWJ-Japan remains with bullish configurations, while ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan took it on the chin last Thursday by the bear. However, it remains as a Red Bull and thus no sell signal, but getting close.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 16.2% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 18.4-weeks ago. That annualizes to 45.6%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 24.6% since its bear signal 21.7-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 24.6% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 18.1% since their bull signals an average of 22.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 42.0%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

The majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull. Force Vector remains directionally mixed with most supporting the bull, but a few expressing some bearish interest. Vector Pressure is relatively high and protective of bull’s continuation.

 

Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering may renew. The VIX is poised for some bullish behavior. It has been mildly bullish the past few days.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the bull.

 

Feb 15, 2011-Tue-Same as yesterday.

 

Feb 14, 2011-Mon-Depressed volume continues, but does nothing to threaten bullish bias.

 

Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Volume was again slightly above recent averages, but remaining well below historical averages on solid bullish behavior. Such behavior remains as stock market bias.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 19.3% since their buy signals an average of 21.5-weeks ago. This annualizes at 46.8%.

 

The NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 15.7% since their sell signals an average of 10.5-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 22.1% since their buy signals an average of 29.6-weeks ago. This annualizes at 38.9%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.4% since their sell signals an average of 43.8-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 24-Red Bulls (flat today), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 23-NTI Blue Bulls (flat today) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.

 

Bearish spurt potential remains. Configurations are shifting again in favor of the bear. The absence of bullish unity remains with some non-contrarian ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly international related funds. Bearish unity also does not exist. Therefore, the bear cannot dominate.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 38.4%, annualizing at 90.3%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in three of the prior five weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull. Force was approaching bearish domains, but shifted north like all good bulls do. Last Friday’s bearishness is derived from Mubarak’s expulsion from Egypt’s leadership position. That was emotional. It was solidly bullish today even though oil prices fell.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 66.1% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.9%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.11 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 2.1% since that sell signal.

 

It fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec 2008.

 

The Near-term Green curve continues moving south. Force shifted south last Friday. That should invigorate the gold bear but that has been disrupted by a bullish spurt.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 2.8% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 9.9% since then. It was aggressively bearish in four of the past nine trading days.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 37.3% since then. It finally succumbed to single digit status at $9.98 on Monday, but apparently did not find comfort with a bullish response to $10.00 today. Attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 65.0% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 15, 2010-Tue-None.

Feb 14, 2010-Mon-The prior statement erroneously stated Friday’s behavior paralleled the 1970’s stock market. It should have stated Friday’s behavior … paralleled the 1980’s stock market.

Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Oil down, gold down, energy sector down while stock market was up. This all relates to Mubarak’s resignation as Egypt’s dictator. These configurations also parallel the 1970’s stock market.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 15, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

02/15/2011

 

 

Feb 14, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 10 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

This bull remains dominant with the exception of the Dow Utilities and international related funds. Utilities’ Force Vector fell into bearish domains and Pressure is nearing same. Other than Utilities all else remains bullish.

 

As stated last Wednesday, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish.” ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong, ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets, and ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?”

 

ETF#06-EWJ-Japan remains with bullish configurations, while ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan took it on the chin last Thursday by the bear. However, it remains as a Red Bull and thus no sell signal, but getting close.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 16.5% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 18.3-weeks ago. That annualizes to 46.9%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 26.8% since its bear signal 21.6-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 26.8% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 18.4% since their bull signals an average of 22.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 43.0%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

The majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull. Force Vector is directionally mixed with most supporting the bull, but a few expressing some bearish interest.

 

Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering may renew. The VIX is poised for some bullish behavior. That is a change from bullish aggression late last week.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the bull.

 

Feb 14, 2011-Mon-Depressed volume continues, but does nothing to threaten bullish bias.

 

Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Volume was again slightly above recent averages, but remaining well below historical averages on solid bullish behavior. Such behavior remains as stock market bias.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 19.8% since their buy signals an average of 21.3-weeks ago. This annualizes at 48.2%.

 

The NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 16.0% since their sell signals an average of 10.3-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 22.4% since their buy signals an average of 29.4-weeks ago. This annualizes at 39.6%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.6% since their sell signals an average of 43.7-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 24-Red Bulls (lost one on Fri), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 23-NTI Blue Bulls (lost one today) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.

 

Bearish spurt potential remains. Configurations are shifting again in favor of the bear. The absence of bullish unity remains with some non-contrarian ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly international related funds. Bearish unity also does not exist. Therefore, the bear cannot dominate.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 39.8%, annualizing at 94.3%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in three of the prior five weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull. Force was approaching bearish domains, but shifted north like all good bulls do. Last Friday’s bearishness is derived from Mubarak’s expulsion from Egypt’s leadership position. That was emotional. It was solidly bullish today even though oil prices fell.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 64.8% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.4%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.06 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 1.3% since that sell signal.

 

It fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec 2008.

 

The Near-term Green curve continues moving south. Force shifted south last Friday. That should invigorate the gold bear.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 3.2% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 10.3% since then. It was aggressively bearish in four of the past eight trading days. It was not contrarian this Friday, paralleling stock market bullishness.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 37.4% since then. It finally succumbed to single digit status at $9.98. Attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 65.4% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 14, 2010-Mon-The prior statement erroneously stated Friday’s behavior paralleled the 1970’s stock market. It should have stated Friday’s behavior … paralleled the 1980’s stock market.

Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Oil down, gold down, energy sector down while stock market was up. This all relates to Mubarak’s resignation as Egypt’s dictator. These configurations also parallel the 1970’s stock market.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 14, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

02/14/2011

 

 

Feb 11, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 09 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Force Vectors appear to be peaking. Do not be surprised at non-bullishness to bearish expressions in the next few days. Stock market bearish expressions remain the same on the near-term horizon. They will be harmless and unsustainable. However, the expulsion of Egypt’s dictator generated a bullish response.

 

As stated last Wednesday, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish.” ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong, ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets, and ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?”

 

ETF#06-EWJ-Japan remains with bullish configurations, while ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan took it on the chin last Thursday by the bear. However, it remains as a Red Bull and thus no sell signal, but getting close.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 16.4% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 17.8-weeks ago. That annualizes to 47.7%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 27.8% since its bear signal 21.1-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 27.8% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 18.3% since their bull signals an average of 21.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 43.6%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

The majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull. However, Force Vectors are tiring and some are shifting south with possible motivations for the bear to exert some influence. However, the stock market bull and populace rejoiced with the expulsion of a dictator. The expulsion of any dictator is always a positive, but celebrations are usually premature because the world’s populace continues replacing them with yet another.

 

Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering may renew. The VIX is poised for some bullish aggression in spite of it disappointing with today’s bearish expression. Much of that was also tied to events in Egypt.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the bull.

 

Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Volume was again slightly above recent averages, but remaining well below historical averages on solid bullish behavior. Such behavior remains as stock market bias.

 

Feb 10, 2011-Thu-Volume was up a bit, but certainly without directional conviction. Flat behavior on aroused volume is a lot of guess work by many. Bullish bias prevails.

 

Feb 09, 2011-Wed-Again very low volume on flat behavior retains bullish bias.

 

Feb 08, 2011-Tue-Low volume continues pushing the stock market higher. That is a mild aura of suspicion surrounding that, but most of the other attributes strongly support the bull.

 

Feb 07, 2011-Mon-Below average volume on mild bullishness. Bullish bias prevails.

 

Feb 04, 2011-Fri-Mediocre volume on mixed stock market behavior does not disrupt prevailing bullish bias.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 19.5% since their buy signals an average of 20.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 48.4%.

 

The NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 16.0% since their sell signals an average of 9.9-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 22.1% since their buy signals an average of 29.0-weeks ago. This annualizes at 39.7%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.5% since their sell signals an average of 43.2-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 24-Red Bulls (lost one on Fri), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 24-NTI Blue Bulls (flat on Fri) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.

 

Bearish spurt potential remains. Configurations are shifting again in favor of the bear. The absence of bullish unity remains with some non-contrarian ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly international related funds. Bearish unity does not exist. Therefore, the bear cannot dominate.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 36.8%, annualizing at 88.9%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in two of the prior four weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull. Force is approaching bearish domains. Friday’s bearishness is derived from Mubarak’s expulsion from Egypt’s leadership position.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 64.1% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.1%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $123.02 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 0.9% since that sell signal.

 

It fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec 2008.

 

The Near-term Green curve continues moving south. Force shifted south this Friday. That should invigorate the gold bear.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 3.3% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 10.4% since then. It was aggressively bearish in four of the past seven trading days. It was not contrarian this Friday, paralleling stock market bullishness.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 37.2% since then. Without a reverse split, this ETF appears to be in search of single digit status. It is now at $10.02. All that is needed for single digit status is three more pennies down. All attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 65.1% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 11, 2011-Fri-Oil down, gold down, energy sector down while stock market was up. This all relates to Mubarak’s resignation as Egypt’s dictator. This configurations also parallel the 1970’s stock market.

Feb 10, 2011-Thu-Although there was no sell signal, ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan fell significantly today. It endured the largest price decline today, but it remains as a Red Bull.

Feb 9, 2011-Wed-Another international ETF, #13-EWH-Hong Kong, received a sell signal today.

Feb 8, 2011-Tue-None

Feb 7, 2011-Mon-Contrarian indices VIX and TLT were not contrarian.

Feb 4, 2011-Fri-GLD did encounter additional bearishness as expected. VIX Force dipped into bearish domains and fell below Pressure. A non-bullish response by the VIX early next week would be surprising. That suggests some stock market bearishness, which would be configured as a mere spurt.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 11, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. Internationally related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

02/11/2011

 

 

Feb 10, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 08 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Force Vectors appear to be peaking. Do not be surprised at non-bullishness to bearish expressions in the next few days. Stock market bearish expressions remain the same on the near-term horizon. They will be harmless and unsustainable.

 

As stated yesterday, “on the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish. ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong, ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets, and ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil are being avoided by the Near-term Indicant. Although exchange rates could be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?”

 

ETF#06-EWJ-Japan remains with bullish configurations, while ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan took it on the chin today by the bear. However, it remains as a Red Bull and thus no sell signal, but getting close.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 15.6% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 17.7-weeks ago. That annualizes to 46.0%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 25.9% since its bear signal 21.0-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 25.9% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 17.5% since their bull signals an average of 21.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 42.1%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

The majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull. However, Force Vectors are tiring and some are shifting south with possible motivations for the bear to exert some influence.

 

Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering may renew. The VIX is poised for some bullish aggression.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the bull.

 

Feb 10, 2011-Thu-Volume was up a bit, but certainly without directional conviction. Flat behavior on aroused volume is a lot of guess work by many. Bullish bias prevails.

 

Feb 09, 2011-Wed-Again very low volume on flat behavior retains bullish bias.

 

Feb 08, 2011-Tue-Low volume continues pushing the stock market higher. That is a mild aura of suspicion surrounding that, but most of the other attributes strongly support the bull.

 

Feb 07, 2011-Mon-Below average volume on mild bullishness. Bullish bias prevails.

 

Feb 04, 2011-Fri-Mediocre volume on mixed stock market behavior does not disrupt prevailing bullish bias.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 18.8% since their buy signals an average of 20.8-weeks ago. This annualizes at 47.2%.

 

The NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 16.6% since their sell signals an average of 9.8-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 21.4% since their buy signals an average of 28.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 38.6%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.6% since their sell signals an average of 43.1-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 25-Red Bulls (flat today), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 24-NTI Blue Bulls (lost one today) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.

 

Bearish spurt potential remains. Configurations are shifting again in favor of the bear. The absence of bullish unity remains with some non-contrarian ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly international related funds. Bearish unity does not exist. Therefore, the bear cannot dominate.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 36.8%, annualizing at 89.6%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in two of the prior four weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull. Another mild attack occurred yesterday with Force falling below Pressure.  Today’s bullish behavior suggests that invigorated the bull.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 64.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.5%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $122.97 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 1.3% since that sell signal.

 

It fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec 2008.

 

As stated last Thu, do not be surprised at more bearish aggression. You saw some of that last Friday and more should not be surprising. Yesterday’s bullishness invigorated the gold bear on a near-term basis with mild bearishness today. NTI Green continues moving south. The bullish Force cycle is maturing and conflicting with Pressure’s decline. Do not be surprised at bearish behavior in the next few days.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 4.7% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 11.6% since then. It was aggressively bearish in four of the past six trading days.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 36.3% since then. Without a reverse split, this ETF appears to be in search of single digit status. It is now at $10.16, losing 4-cents today. All attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 64.5% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 10, 2011-Thu-Although there was no sell signal, ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan fell significantly today. It endured the largest price decline today, but it remains as a Red Bull.

Feb 9, 2011-Wed-Another international ETF, #13-EWH-Hong Kong, received a sell signal today.

Feb 8, 2011-Tue-None

Feb 7, 2011-Mon-Contrarian indices VIX and TLT were not contrarian.

Feb 4, 2011-Fri-GLD did encounter additional bearishness as expected. VIX Force dipped into bearish domains and fell below Pressure. A non-bullish response by the VIX early next week would be surprising. That suggests some stock market bearishness, which would be configured as a mere spurt.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 10, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. Internationally related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have endured a sell signal and being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

02/10/2011

 

 

 

Feb 9, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 07 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

As stated last Monday, attributes highlighting bearish pestering have subsided. That does not mean pestering will discontinue, but it does suggests any stock market bearish expressions on the near-term horizon will be harmless and unsustainable.

 

On the other hand, international ETF’s are increasingly bearish. ETF#13-EWH-Hong Kong received a sell signal today. This ETF joined currently avoided ETF#20-EEM-Emerging Markets and ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil. Although exchange rates could be contributing to their distress, the burning question is, “can these funds be bearish by themselves?”

 

ETF#06-EWJ-Japan and ETF#28-EWT-Taiwan remain with strong bullish configurations. Those two countries remain as productivity leaders and thus with stronger currencies.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 15.3% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 17.5-weeks ago. That annualizes to 45.4%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 26.9% since its bear signal 20.9-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 26.9% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 17.2% since their bull signals an average of 21.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 41.6%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

The majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull. Some Force Vectors shifted from lateral behavior to a more bullish configuration late last week. This was obviously inspirational to the bull.

 

Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering has subsided. However, there is not much downside left for contrarian VIX.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated the past several days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level remains subdued, but this apparently has not been discouraging to the bull.

 

Feb 09, 2011-Wed-Again very low volume on flat behavior retains bullish bias.

 

Feb 08, 2011-Tue-Low volume continues pushing the stock market higher. That is a mild aura of suspicion surrounding that, but most of the other attributes strongly support the bull.

 

Feb 07, 2011-Mon-Below average volume on mild bullishness. Bullish bias prevails.

 

Feb 04, 2011-Fri-Mediocre volume on mixed stock market behavior does not disrupt prevailing bullish bias.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 18.7% since their buy signals an average of 20.6-weeks ago. This annualizes at 47.3%.

 

The NTI is avoiding six ETF’s. They are down by an average of 18.7% since their sell signals an average of 11.2-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 21.4% since their buy signals an average of 28.7-weeks ago. This annualizes at 38.8%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.2% since their sell signals an average of 43.0-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 25-Red Bulls (flat today), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 24-NTI Blue Bulls (lost one today) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.

 

Bearish spurt potential remains, but configurations shifted more in favor of the bull. The absence of bullish unity remains with some non-contrarian ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly international related funds.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 35.4%, annualizing at 86.8%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in two of the prior four weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull. Another mild attack is now occurring as Force fell below Pressure.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 65.0% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $122.92 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 1.4% since that sell signal.

 

It fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec 2008.

 

As stated last Thu, do not be surprised at more bearish aggression. You saw some of that last Friday and more should not be surprising. Yesterday’s bullishness invigorated the gold bear on a near-term basis with mild bearishness today. NTI Green continues moving south. The bullish Force cycle is maturing and conflicting with Pressure’s decline.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 3.6% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 10.6% since then. It was aggressively bearish in three of the past five trading days.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 36.1% since then. Without a reverse split, this ETF appears to be in search of single digit status. It is now at $10.20, gaining 4-cents today. All attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 64.5% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 9, 2011-Wed-Another international ETF, #13-EWH-Hong Kong, received a sell signal today.

Feb 8, 2011-Tue-None

Feb 7, 2011-Mon-Contrarian indices VIX and TLT were not contrarian.

Feb 4, 2011-Fri-GLD did encounter additional bearishness as expected. VIX Force dipped into bearish domains and fell below Pressure. A non-bullish response by the VIX early next week would be surprising. That suggests some stock market bearishness, which would be configured as a mere spurt.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 7, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. There were two several days ago for internationally related ETF’s and they remain configured with weak bullish support. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

02/09/2011

 

 

Feb 8, 2011 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 06 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

As stated last Monday, attributes highlighting bearish pestering have subsided. That does not mean pestering will discontinue, but it does suggests any stock market bearish expressions on the near-term horizon will be harmless and unsustainable.

 

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 15.5% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 17.4-weeks ago. That annualizes to 46.4%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 27.2% since its bear signal 20.7-weeks ago. The VIX was contrarian today with a solid bearish expression, countering yesterday’s non-contrarian behavior.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 27.2% since that bear signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 17.4% since their bull signals an average of 21.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 42.4%.

 

Short-term Market Summary

The majority of Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull. Some Force Vectors shifted from lateral behavior to a more bullish configuration late last week. This was obviously inspirational to the bull.

 

Overall, most attributes support of the bull. Bearish pestering has subsided. However, there is not much downside left for contrarian VIX.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators  

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. It appears content in remaining as such for the time being and it has become even more depressed since the New Year. As stated the past few days, the Indicant Volume Indicator is returning to near holiday levels. Volume is nearing a cyclical bottom, which offers potential stock market interest. Unfortunately, that interest level remains subdued.

 

Feb 08, 2011-Tue-Low volume continues pushing the stock market higher. That is a mild aura of suspicion surrounding that, but most of the other attributes strongly support the bull.

 

Feb 07, 2011-Mon-Below average volume on mild bullishness. Bullish bias prevails.

 

Feb 04, 2011-Fri-Mediocre volume on mixed stock market behavior does not disrupt prevailing bullish bias.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 19.0% since their buy signals an average of 20.7-weeks ago. This annualizes at 47.7%.

 

The NTI is avoiding six ETF’s. They are down by an average of 18.0% since their sell signals an average of 11.1-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 22.1% since their buy signals an average of 28.6-weeks ago. This annualizes at 40.2%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 44.5% since their sell signals an average of 42.8-weeks ago.

 

Short-term Summary: There are 25-Red Bulls (lost one today, flat in the prior four days), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 25-NTI Blue Bulls (gained one today) continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear.

 

Bearish spurt potential remains, but configurations shifted more in favor of the bull. The absence of bullish unity remains with some non-contrarian ETF’s still lacking bullish configurations; mostly international related funds.

 

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 37.2%, annualizing at 91.7%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish in spite of the late week bear attacks in two of the prior four weeks. Even with those attacks, it remains as a NTI Blue Bull.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 65.1% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.7%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $122.87 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 20, 2011. It is up 1.5% since that sell signal.

 

It fell below NTI Green on Jan 20, 2011. Its Force Vector dipped deeper into bearish domains on the same day. Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains, which adds bearish support in spite of bullish aggression the past few days. Configurations do not justify continued holding along the Near-term Indicant cycle and thus the avoid signal. Keep in mind the Quick-term Indicant should be your model of choice if you bought in Dec 2008.

 

As stated last Thu, do not be surprised at more bearish aggression. You saw some of that last Friday and more should not be surprising. Today’s bullishness should invigorate the gold bear on a near-term basis. NTI Green continues moving south. The bullish Force cycle is maturing and conflicting with Pressure’s decline.

 

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

 

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

 

Interestingly, gold appears to be in trouble along the near-term cycle. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 4.4% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 11.4% since then. It was aggressively bearish in three of the past four trading days.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 36.3% since then. Without a reverse split, this ETF appears to be in search of single digit status. It is now at $10.16. All attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 64.6% since then.  Pressure remains low and not capable of extensive bullish behavior.

 

Major ETF Events

Feb 8, 2011-Tue-None

Feb 7, 2011-Mon-Contrarian indices VIX and TLT were not contrarian.

Feb 4, 2011-Fri-GLD did encounter additional bearishness as expected. VIX Force dipped into bearish domains and fell below Pressure. A non-bullish response by the VIX early next week would be surprising. That suggests some stock market bearishness, which would be configured as a mere spurt.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 7, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. There were two several days ago for internationally related ETF’s and they remain configured with weak bullish support. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling, even though it is now enduring a Near-term avoid signal.