Feb 29, 2004 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 2, Issue 5 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

 Seasonal Normalcy? – Part 2

For the first time since 1998, the S&P500’s February was up. The S&P500’s February increased 1.2% after falling an average of 3.7% from 1999 through 2003. Some of you recall how $10,000 invested in the S&P500 only in the month of February since 1950 would result in a balance of $9,219 as of February 2003. The abnormally bullish movement in February 2004 now has this balance up to $9,332. That pales in comparison to January’s $20,495.

The NASDAQ February is not much better. A 1970 investment of $10,000 only in the month of February would now be only $11,134. The NASDAQ finished down 1.8% this month.

Last week’s prognosis was fairly accurate, as the market finished flat to down. February 2004 was a nice one, relative to historical performance. So, what is in store for March and beyond?

Before we get started, keep in mind one thing. The Indicant does not forecast. It cares only about the direction of the market, stocks, and funds. The market has only three possible directions; up, down, or flat. It is impossible to forecast the market’s magnitude. It is nearly impossible to forecast cyclical shifts or trend shifts. Market cyclicality moves more on human emotion than any other element, whereas trends are configured more on economic fundamentals.

Since there are a lot of investors, who are basket cases and a little more than weird, it is best to not attempt to forecast their behavior. It would be a fruitless exercise. The Indicant only measures the results of their actions and watches for cyclical shifts and any potential shifts in trend. There are only two results of that; bull or bear and only four actions required of you; buy, hold, sell, or avoid. Although the market is a continuum of numbers, your action is discrete. Each week you decide only four possible courses of action; buy, hold, sell, or avoid.

Many investors believe there are only two actions; buy or sell. It takes more physical energy to buy or sell, than to hold or avoid. You have to either call your broker or click your mouse to buy or sell. But, there should be little difference in the mental intensity in holding or avoiding a stock. Holding and avoiding requires no physical energy, but you should apply the same degree of mental intensity as in buying and selling in making your decision to hold or avoid.

Okay, now that we have that behind us, what is in store for March and beyond? The NASDAQ’s March is also a ho-hum month. Since 1970, $10,000 invested only in March has risen to only $11,134. That pales when compared to the NASDAQ’s January where the $10,000 investment grew to $31,992 by January 2004. As of the end of March 2001, that $10,000 shriveled to $9,688. So, you can see, March has rebounded somewhat even in the bear markets since 2001. Since March 2001, about $1500 has been made in the NASDAQ March.

The S&P500 March performs nearly two times better than February. The $10,000 invested only in the S&P500 March since 1950 has grown to $17,346 as of March 2003 or about double the February investment. The Dow’s $10,000 since 1950 has grown to $16,595 as of March 2003 or about 60% better than February’s performance.

February–March is the sixth most bearish rolling bi-monthly period for the Dow. In other words it is in the middle of the pack of performance of the twelve bi-monthly periods. It is the fifth most bearish for the NASDAQ and S&P500. However, the March-April rolling bi-monthly period is the third most bullish for the Dow and the fourth most bullish for the S&P500. The NASDAQ’s March-April rolling bi-monthly period is in the middle of the pack. It is the sixth most bearish.

What does this mean? The Quick-term Indicant has been illustrating the gravitational pull back to the Quick-term bearish yellow curve. This is substantiated with negative Vector Pressure for both the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ100. The Perspectives charts reveal the S&P600 has produced a nice cyclical bull and intuitively it appears a pullback is in order. However, it is nowhere near the breakdown line and thus little chance of a major bear market unfolding.

The Indicant Volume Indicator is revealing continuing lethargy, but somewhat protracted. That protracting configuration reveals there is no rush to sell stocks by many investors. The greatest probability of a major market drop is not likely to occur until the April-May period, if then.

The Mid-term Indicant continues to maintain bullish status. All eight major indices are red bulls. You can see from the charts, the indices are merely retreating to the red bull curves. The market cannot go up every day, every week, and every month. This bull has been a steady. It shows no signs of a major market collapse.

Some of you recall the themes from last November–December, entitled the Heart and Soul of bullish seasonality. The message was that most of the money made in the stock market is typically from November through January. The market performed nicely to that prognosis in late 2003 and early 2004. The rolling quarter November through January is the most bullish. $10,000 invested in the Dow since 1950 only in November through January grew to $102,969 by January 2004. The S&P500 grew similarly to $106,272. The NASDAQ $10,000 grew to $89,665 since 1970 if invested only in the months November-January.

The Dow’s rolling November-January rolling quarter, ending January 2004 increased by 7.0% or about 1.5 times the average of 4.8%. The Dow’s December–February rolling quarter was up a whopping 8.2% or about 2.4 times the historical average of 3.4%. A pause in this bullish behavior should not be unexpected in the blue chips. Interestingly, the NASDAQ’s December-February rolling quarter increased only 3.5% or about one-half its historical performance of 6.6%.

The Dow is up 7.9% since October 2003, the last month of the six-months of bearish seasonality. The average performance since 1950 is 8.0%. As you can see, the Dow has already achieved its historical standard of growth during bullish seasonality. The S&P500’s average growth during bullish seasonality is 7.4%. So far, the S&P500 is up 9.0%, which exceeds its historical standard of performance during bullish seasonality. The NASDAQ is up a paltry 5.1% since October 2003. Its standard performance since 1970 during bullish seasonality is 10.5%. So, there is room to grow or is there? Please read on.

Interestingly, the NASDAQ was up by 32.0% during the most bearish rolling half, ending October 2003. It’s average performance in the bearish half of the year is up 1.4% and is its most bearish rolling half. The NASDAQ decreased 54.1% in the bearish half from 2000 through 2002. The May-October 2003 was the second most NASDAQ bullish expression in the bearish half since 1970. The Dow was up 15.0% during the same period, while the S&P500 was up 14.6%. You can see the NASDAQ bull was panting more loudly at the conclusion of October 2003 than that of the Dow or S&P500. The NASDAQ bull had to rest to sustain its bullish theme. The Dow and S&P500 have continued to perform well since then, as their trail to the north has been much more relaxed.

The bull is simply tired and wanting to take a rest. Although this bull has never stimulated a stampede to the north like its 1999 ancestor, it has been running somewhat of a steady-paced marathon. Even marathoners need to rest every now and then. The bear is in hibernation and shows no signs of major movement. The negative Vector Pressure caused its snores to get a little louder, but the snort of the bull is much louder. We have the bear in our sights and if it moves, you will be one of the first to know.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and six sell signals.

In addition to the six sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding fifteen stocks and funds of the 296 tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 28.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 44.1 weeks ago.

There were one-hundred and fifty-five stocks and funds avoided at this time last year in addition to seven sell signals. Most of the avoided stocks and funds at this time last year were mutual funds. There will be more about that later.

The avoided stocks and funds one year ago were down an average of 10.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 7.2 weeks earlier. As sated the past five weeks, the
December-02 through February-03 rolling quarter is the third worse in the history of the NASDAQ. That contrarian bearish behavior was offset by contrarian bullish behavior in the second half of 2003. So far, that bullishness is continuing into 2004. The NASDAQ December-February rolling quarter, ending 2004, was bearish to historical standards.

The Mid-term Indicant is currently signaling hold for 275 of the 296 stocks and funds currently tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 70.1%, which is up slightly from last week. That annualizes to 83.6%, which is down from 124.1% reported on June 7, 2003, but up from 50.2% reported a little over a year ago on February 15, 2003. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 275 stocks and funds for an average of 43.8 weeks.

There were seven buy signals one year ago in addition to the fifty-one buy signals a week earlier. At that time, the Mid-term Indicant was holding those stocks and funds for an average of 18.6 weeks. Fifty-five of them had hold signals of only one week due to a buying surge one week earlier. The 155 stocks and funds were up 21.1% (annualized at 58.9%). As stated last week, several individual stocks continued to climb last year in the face of Quarter I-03 bearish expressions.

This paragraph is a repeat from last several weeks with a few modifications. The current bull market and buying barrage in late 2002 followed the predicted market bottom in 2002. The mid-term presidential election year phenomenon was consistent with history. Even more impressive was how the market synchronized with near perfection with normal seasonality. The Dow30 found bottom on October 9, 2002 at 7286.27. The NASDAQ found bottom on the same day at 1114.11. As earlier stated, the Indicant began its buying barrage in October – November 2002 just after the market bottomed from the severe 2000-2002 Bear Market. Some of you recall the Short-term Indicant Bear for the NASDAQ was the longest in history. It even exceeded the Dow’s 1929-1932 Short-term Indicant Bear. The good news is that the NASDAQ’s decline did not lead to a depression, which is a clear indication of how little influence the tech stocks have on the economy.

This paragraph is similar to the past several weeks with a few modifications slanted for 2004 interpretations. We want to make certain you understand this. The mid-term election year phenomenon found the market bottom, right on cue in 2002. The presidential pre-election year phenomenon is the most bullish year on the presidential election cycle. Normal seasonality did not occur in 2003, as the presidential pre-election year exerted its influence. We have now completed our enjoyment of that in 2003. The second most bullish year along the presidential election cycle is the election year, which is underway in 2004. We are anticipating enjoyment of that as well. The following link will take you to charts that explain this phenomenon, which is currently underway and for you to enjoy. It is in a “members only” section. This paragraph will repeat throughout this year.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0001.htm

Make certain you read the entire pages on the above link. You will see there are exceptions. So far, we do not expect 2004 to be an exception. If it becomes an exception, the Quick-term Indicant and the other Indicant models will let you know.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant continues recommending the more tolerant stop loss of 8%. You may want to increase that to 10% if your current hold positions are up over 50%. We are still into bullish seasonality, backed by the normally bullish presidential election year. When the Quick-term Indicant signals bear, you should adjust your stop losses to 5%.

Use either an 8% (or 10%) trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 8% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 15% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds in those “bearish” conditions. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only. Be patient with this download. It takes a few minutes.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information is on a single page in the web site. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

The Internet and Technology sectors have moved from solid bullish domains to partial bullishness. These sectors are one of the most speculative and it is not surprising to see them weaken during the soft part of bullish seasonality. The contrarian sectors move to solid bearish domains, which supports continuing bullish expressions by general equities. All other sectors remained in bullish domains last week. Overall, we are still enjoying market convergence with a bullish bias. That bodes well for continuing bullish expressions.

Economic Outlook

The U.S. Dollar rebounded last week. As stated last week, the U.S. Dollar is showing signs of finding its minimum cyclical peak. It remains very weak against world currencies much to the enjoyment of U.S. exporters. However, it is a threat to inflationary pressures. That coupled with a burgeoning federal deficit and political stupidity, one can expect market calamity at some future point. However, there is no need to worry about that now, as the market is still a bull, although a temporary one, as always.

Gold and oil, partners during hyperinflation times, were both down last week. However, they remain in their respective bullish domains. If they eventually decline at some future point, the current bull will be glistening with fuel for meteoric continuing increases.

Other commodities rose last week. Although they appeared to be at cyclical peaks several months ago, they continue to rise with the improving economy. Again, if these prices begin a gentle decline in the next few months, then one can expect the current bull market to be well above average in performance.

Although somewhat boring, the Indicant is chartered to inform – not entertain. Therefore, the remainder of this paragraph remains unchanged from the past few weeks. Interest rates are not threatening to the equity related bull market. Nothing changed significantly from last week. They remain at historically low levels. Productivity growth continues to be the market’s salvation.

All economic data is at the following link:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Ninety weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Eighty-three weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Seventy-four weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 86.4%, which is significantly higher than 47.1% reported thirty-two weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate is 38.2%, which is up from 28.8% reported thirty-two weeks ago. This fund is down the past two weeks.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% eighty-eight weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Eighty-one weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 114.2%, which is higher than the 75.9% reported thirty-two weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 39.1%, which is higher than 23.1% reported thirty-two weeks ago. This fund was up slightly last week, after being down the week before last.

As always stated you can monitor the above two funds and the options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg. The current bull is a nice one, but lacking dynamic growth.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Forty-four weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant to signal bull. Since the Mid-term Indicant’s bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 47.7%. Seven weeks ago it was up 63.6% since the May 3, 2003 Mid-term Bull signal. This index is up significantly from 18.8% reported thirty-two weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is 57.1%, which is more than the 50.7% reported thirty-two weeks ago, but lower than 142.5% reported thirty-six weeks ago. Seven weeks ago, the annualized growth rate since the bull signal was 90.9%. As you can see, gold prices may be beyond its cyclical peak. If that continues, expect the stock market to accelerate its bullish pattern. This index was up significantly last week.

Gold prices will tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It, along with the stock market, will also tumble in the improbable event of deflation. This index continues to move north, which is inconsistent with equity related bulls. Continuing weaknesses in gold and other commodities will jolt the equity markets to the north.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

For the fifth consecutive week, none of the eight major indices enjoyed red bull status. As has been stated for quite some time your hold positions are safe, but not to the extent they were six weeks ago. Keep in mind, individual stocks react differently to shifting market direction. They chart their own course, although overall market behavior influences the direction of the majority of stocks. So, make certain your stop losses are up to date. As stated for the past few weeks, the market is biased with non-bullishness. That does not mean it is about to turn bearish, but the possibility is now upon us.

The eight major indices are up an average of 8.0% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bull on October 28, 2003. That annualizes to 23.5%. It is not likely the market will rise by that amount by October 28, 2004. As stated the past several weeks, it would not be surprising to endure normal bearish seasonality in 2004 only to enjoy a bullish bounce just before the election this year. The Indicant will keep you posted on that.

Force Vectors continue their quick up and down oscillations. After running south the past three weeks, they have turned back to the north. That is supporting continued bullish behavior. Vector Pressure is negative (bearish) for the Dow Composite of Sixty-Five Stocks, the NASDAQ Composite, and the NASDAQ100. The remaining five major indices continue to enjoy positive pressure (bullish domains).

Keep in mind Force Vectors and Vector Pressure are eight dimensional and cannot be plotted. We continue to research methods to convert to two-dimensional arrays so you can see them. Until then, we will continue to use words to describe them.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator continues the southerly movement it started three weeks ago. As stated the past two weeks, this indicates there is no rush of sellers to dump stocks. That bodes well as depressing volume on bearish market expressions offers a non-bearish undercurrent. The NYSE’s Indicant Volume Indicator turned south also three weeks ago and continues its direction of lethargy, but the slope is somewhat extended meaning more investors are holding their stocks as opposed to getting unduly nervous and selling them. The market is also biasing non-bullishness, as well as non-bearishness. It has been in a state of equilibrium right now, but an increasing slant in favor of bearishness on a Quick-term basis, which is what we saw last week.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The Dow is up 8.6% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bull on November 24, 2004. That annualizes to 32.6%. The Dow’s Short-term Indicant Bull is now 96 days old calendar days old against an average life cycle of only 39.6 days. That current Quick-term Bull leg has extended beyond the average bull-leg duration by 242.2%.  

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear for the NASDAQ on February 21, 2004. As stated the past few weeks, expect increased signal activity. It is down 0.4% since that Short-term Bear signal. The NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant Bear from March 2000 to April 2003 was traumatic. It will take quite some time for it to express continuing long-term confidence in long bullish cycles.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

Perspectives

As stated for the past few weeks, you will notice the S&P600 Index is coming off all time high. As predicted, bullish expressions cooled off and there will be a continuing bias in favor of mild bearish expressions. Your hold positions are still safe, but your paper net worth will continue taking a few hits, while at the same time you will continue to enjoy double-digit growth positions from your buy points.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant, please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Six of the eight major indices continue as red bulls. The Dow Jones Transports and the NASDAQ100 gave up their red bull status last week. The red curve safety net is breaking down slightly. Bullish seasonality is now providing somewhat of a safety net for your hold positions, but that is not as reliable as the red bull safety net. As long as one index is a red bull, though, the likelihood of a major market crash is minimal during bullish seasonality.

They eight major indices are up an average of 21.9% for an annualized gain of 31.5% since the MTI Bull signals an average of 36.1 weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is down from 47.9% reported thirty-eight weeks ago.

The DJIA is up 24.2% (annualized at 25.7%) since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003.  That is up from 14.1% reported nineteen weeks ago, but down from recent weeks.

The NASDAQ Composite is the strongest Mid-term Bull. It is up 42.8% (annualized at 45.4%) since the March 22, 2003 MTI Bull signal, which is up from 34.6% reported twenty ago.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Twenty-two of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 88.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 60.6 weeks ago for an annualized gain of 76.2%, which is slightly greater than the 72.9% reported thirty-eight weeks ago. The average gain last week was up 1.0% while the annualized gain declined slightly.

None of the foreign indices is a Mid-term Indicant Bear.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

Feb 22, 2004 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 2, Issue 4 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

Seasonal Normalcy?

As stated the past three weeks, the market appears poised to allow February to exert some normal bearish pressure.

There have been several reasons for this prognosis. February has been historically bearish. If you invested $10,000 on January 31 and sold on the last day of February each year since 1950, you would have only $9,219 using the S&P500 Index as the gauge. That contrasts with November’s gain to $23,730 over the past fifty-three years.

However, so far in this presidential election year, February’s bearishness has been mild. The NASDAQ Composite is down by only 1.4%, while the Dow and S&P500 are up by 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Those numbers do not support bearish results.

The battle rages between the conflicts of seasonal cyclicality and the influences of the presidential election cycles. The presidential pre-election year phenomenon exerted its influence over seasonal cyclicality in 2003. The current six-month period of bullish seasonality has been consistent with expectation and February’s normal bearish behavior has been defeated, so far, by the presidential election year influence with the exception of the NASDAQ performance.

Unfortunately, February is not over. There is one more week remaining. The Quick-term attributes are biased in favor of February being a bearish month.

The Indicant Volume Indicator’s recent configuration in support of investor lethargy is another reason for the bearish prognosis for February. However, it is non-bearish when volume declines on a declining market in the early stages of that decline. On the other hand, it is difficult to sustain bullish behavior on declining volume. It is possible, but seldom expressed.

The Short-term Indicant slipped below the line last Friday, triggering a Short-term Indicant Bear signal for the NASDAQ. It is not surprising to see the Short-term Indicant to be active after the record bear signal that began in March 2000. Do not be too concerned about that as long as the other models are signaling bull.

The Quick-term Force Vectors are pointing to bearish domains and the NASDAQ and NASDAQ100 are actually in bearish domains. Even their Vector Pressure is now in bearish domains. If they fall below their bearish yellow curves, then there will be an increase in sell signals.

The S&P600 is not coming off an all time high. It cannot continue moving north. An interruption to that impressive bullish expression is necessary and actually healthy. It is good for long-term bullish movements to endure corrections above their respective Mid-term Bullish red curves. Bulls need to rest from time to time to stay alive just like the rest of us.

As you can see, there are several reasons why February should produce its normal seasonal bearish behavior, even though it is contained in the six-month period of bullish seasonality.

With this bearish dialog, then why were there no sell signals this past weekend? So far, February has not demonstrated bearish expressions with the exception of the NASDAQ, which is only mildly bearish. If the upcoming week and final week of February does produce bearish results, then the prognosis is accurate. If it does not produce a bearish result, then this prognosis will be wrong with the possible exception from the NASDAQ. Even though a prognosis is offered from time to time, the Indicant does not forecast the market. It only cares about direction; up or down. These prognosis are offered only help you understand that direction.

All eight indices are Mid-term red bulls. Even though the Quick-term Indicant red bull status is lost, the Mid-term red bull status is protecting the hold positions. There are no buy signals because several Quick-term attributes favor bearish behavior this coming week.

The combination of these Mid-term and Quick-term configurations suggests that March’s bullish response will more than offset February’s decline in the event it turns out bearish. A bullish February will only deflate March’s performance. A bearish February will inflate March’s bullish expressions. March is one of the most bullish months and it is consistently bullish. That is due, in part, to it following the normally bearish February and it is the next to last month in the six-month period of bullish seasonality. However, the Feb-Mar rolling bi-monthly period is in the lower half of the other eleven rolling bi-monthly periods. We are simply past the easy money in stock market investing, but the scenario is not bleak. The Mar-Apr rolling half is one of the more bullish performers.

The last S&P500 bullish February occurred in 1998, which was a strong bullish year. A bullish S&P500 2004 February will bode well for the continuation of this bull market.

The next major Quick-term event is how the indices will perform on or around their respective bearish yellow curves. The past two times they approached the bearish yellow curve, they immediately bounced to the north. However, this is the first time negative vector pressure has preceded the retreat to bearish yellow in this bull market. Force Vectors are not convincingly in favor of any steep bearish expressions since their movement continues to be lazy in both directions.

Check the website daily and read any daily reports you may receive.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

Even though there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding fifteen stocks and funds of the 296 tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 27.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 43.1 weeks ago.

There were one-hundred and ten avoided stocks and funds at this time last year in addition to five sell signals. Last year’s early first quarter selling spree was concluded at this time last year. The market was beginning a subtle shift from bearish expressions to bullish expressions. Many of you recall the second wave of tremendous buying of stocks and especially mutual funds in March 2003. Nearly all of the funds with current hold positions were bought in March 2003.

The avoided stocks and funds one year ago were down an average of 9.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 6.2 weeks earlier. As sated the past four weeks, the
December-02 through February-03 rolling quarter was the third worse in the history of the NASDAQ. That contrarian bearish behavior was offset by contrarian bullish behavior in the second half of 2003. So far, that bullishness is continuing into 2004.

The Mid-term Indicant is currently signaling hold for 281 of the 296 stocks and funds currently tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 67.8%, which is down slightly from last week. That annualizes to 82.6%, which is down from 124.1% reported on June 7, 2003, but up from 50.2% reported exactly one year ago on February 15, 2003. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 281 stocks and funds for an average of 42.7 weeks.

There were fifty-one buy signals one year ago, as the market was shifting to bullish expressions. The stocks/funds with hold signals amounted to only 110 after the extensive selling at this time last year. At that time, the Mid-term Indicant was holding those stocks and funds for an average of 26.8 weeks. They were up 28.3% (annualized at 54.9%). As stated last week, several individual stocks continued to climb last year in the face of Quarter I-03 bearish expressions.

This paragraph is a repeat from last several weeks with a few modifications. The current bull market and buying barrage in late 2002 followed the predicted market bottom in 2002. The mid-term presidential election year phenomenon was consistent with history. Even more impressive was how the market synchronized with near perfection with normal seasonality. The Dow30 found bottom on October 9, 2002 at 7286.27. The NASDAQ found bottom on the same day at 1114.11. As earlier stated, the Indicant began its buying barrage in October – November 2002 just after the market bottomed from the severe 2000-2002 Bear Market. Some of you recall the Short-term Indicant Bear for the NASDAQ was the longest in history. It even exceeded the Dow’s 1929-1932 Short-term Indicant Bear. The good news is that the NASDAQ’s decline did not lead to a depression, which is a clear indication of how little influence the tech stocks have on the economy.

This paragraph is similar to the past several weeks with a few modifications slanted for 2004 interpretations. We want to make certain you understand this. The mid-term election year phenomenon found the market bottom, right on cue in 2002. The presidential pre-election year phenomenon is the most bullish year on the presidential election cycle. Normal seasonality did not occur in 2003, as the presidential pre-election year exerted its influence. We have now completed our enjoyment of that in 2003. The second most bullish year along the presidential election cycle is the election year, which is underway in 2004. We are anticipating enjoyment of that as well. The following link will take you to charts that explain this phenomenon, which is currently underway and for you to enjoy. It is in a “members only” section. This paragraph will repeat throughout this year.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0001.htm

Make certain you read the entire pages on the above link. You will see there are exceptions. So far, we do not expect 2004 to be an exception. If it becomes an exception, the Quick-term Indicant and the other Indicant models will let you know.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant continues recommending the more tolerant stop loss of 8%. You may want to increase that to 10% if your current hold position is up over 50%. We are still into bullish seasonality, backed by the normally bullish presidential election year. When the Quick-term Indicant signals bear, you should adjust your stop losses to 5%.

Use either an 8% (or 10%) trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 8% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 15% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds in those “bearish” conditions. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only. Be patient with this download. It takes a few minutes.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information is on a single page in the web site. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

As has been the case for the past two weeks, most equity related sectors are still in bullish domains. As stated the past few weeks, a pullback in February would not be surprising based on historical behavior. So far, the typical February pullback has been pleasantly mild. All equity sectors continue as red bulls. We are still enjoying equity convergence, although softening somewhat. As stated the past few weeks, the market is basically at a standstill, which is much better than last year’s January-February bearish expressions.

Economic Outlook

The US Dollar is showing signs of finding its minimum cyclical peak. It remains very weak against world currencies much to the enjoyment of U.S. exporters. However, it is a threat to inflationary pressures. That coupled with a burgeoning federal deficit and political stupidity, one can expect market clamity at some future point. However, there is no need to worry about that now, as the market is still a bull, although a temporary one, as always.

Oil, gold, and other commodities are still expressing some choppy behavior at what appears to be cyclical peaks. However, that choppy behavior has been followed by more inflationary potential, as opposed to engaging cyclical declines this past year. The stock market is monitoring that. It continues to “anticipate” a deflationary cyclical swing that would be safe within the confines of healthy supply and demand equilibriums and corresponding healthy price elasticity. Right now, the price elasticity does not appear to be healthy. But that choppy behavior at theoretical cyclical peaks is appealing to the bull market. Continued commodity price movement to the north will eventually disgust the bull and the party will be over. Greenspan will slant his behavior in favor of defeating inflation even at the expense of unemployment and the young bull market.

Although somewhat boring, the Indicant is chartered to inform – not entertain. Therefore, the remainder of this paragraph remains unchanged from the past few weeks. Interest rates are not threatening to the equity related bull market. Nothing changed significantly from last week. They remain at historically low levels. Productivity growth continues to be the market’s salvation.

All economic data is at the following link:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Eighty-nine weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Eighty-two weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Seventy-three weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 90.0%, which is significantly higher than 47.1% reported thirty-one weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate is 40.2%, which is up from 28.8% reported thirty-one weeks ago. This fund was down last week.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% eighty-seven weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Eighty weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 113.2%, which is higher than the 75.9% reported thirty-one weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 39.0%, which is higher than 23.1% reported thirty-one weeks ago. This fund was also down last week.

As always stated you can monitor the above two funds and the options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg. The current bull is a nice one, but lacking dynamic growth.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Forty-three weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant to signal bull. Since the Mid-term Indicant’s bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 44.4%. Six weeks ago it was up 63.6% since the May 3, 2003 Mid-term Bull signal. This index is up significantly from 18.8% reported thirty-one weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is 54.4%, which is more than the 50.7% reported thirty-one weeks ago, but lower than 142.5% reported thirty-five weeks ago. Six weeks ago, the annualized growth rate since the bull signal was 90.9%. As you can see, gold prices may be beyond its cyclical peak. If that continues, expect the stock market to accelerate its bullish pattern. Softening commodities the past few weeks has helped depress normal February bearish expressions in the equity markets.

Gold prices will tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It, along with the stock market, will also tumble in the improbable event of deflation. This index continues to move north, which is inconsistent with equity related bulls. Continuing weaknesses in gold and other commodities will jolt the equity markets to the north.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

For the fourth consecutive week, none of the eight major indices enjoyed red bull status. As has been stated for quite some time your hold positions are safe, but not to the extent they were five weeks ago. Keep in mind, individual stocks react differently to shifting market direction. They chart their own course, although overall market behavior influences the direction of the majority of stocks. So, make certain your stop losses are up to date. As stated for the past few weeks, the market is biased with non-bullishness. That does not mean it is about to turn bearish, but the possibility is now upon us.

The eight major indices are up an average of 7.8% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bull on October 28, 2003. That annualizes to 24.6%. It is not likely the market will rise by that amount by October 28, 2004. As stated the past few weeks, it would not be surprising to endure normal bearish seasonality in 2004 only to enjoy a bullish bounce just before the election this year. The Indicant will keep you posted on that.

Force Vectors continue their quick up and down oscillations. They turned south the week before last and have continued in that direction. Their most recent cyclical peak is lower than the prior one. That supports Quick-term non-bullishness. Six of the eight are in bullish domains. The two that are in bearish domains are the NASDAQ and NASDAQ100. Their movement continues with lazy expressions, which has been a continuing characteristic of this bull. They continue to exclude robust movement since October 2002. However, there are no complaints, here. Slow and steady bull markets are just fine.

Vector Pressure remains in bullish domains for six of the eight major indices, but the direction is toward bearish domains. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ100 are now being subjected to negative vector pressure, which invites bearish potential. Watch your email. If Vector Pressure becomes negative in the remaining major indices, there will be increased selling pressure applied to stocks and funds. The Mid-term Indicant does not hesitate on generating sell signals when Vector Pressure is negative.

Keep in mind Force Vectors and Vector Pressure are eight dimensional and cannot be plotted. We continue to research methods to convert to two-dimensional arrays so you can see them. Until then, we will continue to use words to describe them.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator continues the southerly movement it started two weeks ago. As stated last week, this indicates there is no rush of sellers to dump stocks. That bodes well as depressing volume on bearish market expressions offers a non-bearish undercurrent. The NYSE’s Indicant Volume Indicator turned south also two weeks ago and continues its direction of lethargy. The market is also biasing non-bullishness, as well as non-bearishness. It has been in a state of equilibrium right, but an increasing slant in favor of bearishness on a Quick-term basis.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The Dow is up 8.9% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bull on November 24, 2004. That annualizes to 36.7%. The Dow’s Short-term Indicant Bull is now 12.7 weeks old calendar days old against an average life cycle of only 5.7 weeks.

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear for the NASDAQ. As stated the past few weeks, expect increased signal activity. The NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant Bear from March 2000 to April 2003 was traumatic. It will take quite some time for it to express continuing long-term confidence in long bullish cycles.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

Perspectives

As stated for the past few weeks, you will notice the S&P600 Index is coming off all time high. As predicted, bullish expressions cooled off and there will be a continuing bias in favor of bearish expressions. Your hold positions are still safe, but your paper net worth will continue taking a few hits, while at the same time you will continue to enjoy double-digit growth positions from your buy points.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant, please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All eight major indices continue as red bulls. That expression provides a safety net for your current hold positions, although the Quick-term Indicant has been revealing some bearish expressions. They are up an average of 21.6% for an annualized gain of 32.0% since the MTI Bull signals an average of 35.1 weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is down from 47.9% reported thirty-seven weeks ago.

The DJIA is up 24.6% (annualized at 26.7%) since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003.  That is up from 14.1% reported eighteen weeks ago. The NASDAQ Composite is the strongest Mid-term Bull. It is up 43.4% (annualized at 47.0%) since the March 22, 2003 MTI Bull signal, which is up from 34.6% reported nineteen ago, but down from last week.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Twenty-two of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 87.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 59.6 weeks ago for an annualized gain of 76.6%, which is slightly greater than the 72.9% reported thirty-seven weeks ago.

None of the foreign indices is a Mid-term Indicant Bear.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

Feb 15, 2004 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 2, Issue 3 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

Is the Market Up or Down?

Last week’s report discussed the nature of stock market corrections and healthy corrections. If you look at the Perspectives Charts, you will notice the S&P600 has moved up in this bull cycle along seventy-two degree angle. For those of you who yawned a lot in trigonometry class, ninety-degrees is straight up. Seventy-two degrees is a lot closer to ninety than zero degrees.

Although the link to the Perspectives Charts are recorded later in this report, one is being placed here so you can take a quit look at it now. Scroll down through all three charts.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

As you can see, the three indices represented in these charts have been successfully engaging their breakout lines for several months after being apart for several years. As you can see, a buyer of NASDAQ stocks in early 2000 would argue the market is down. For those of you who sold in early 2000 and bought in late 2002 would argue the market is up.

The NASDAQ Short-term Indicant Bear Market from March 2000 through April 2003 was the longest Short-term Indicant bear in history. It even outlasted the Dow’s Short-term Indicant Bear from 1929 through 1931. The Dows 1929-1931 Short-term Indicant Bear and the NASDAQ’s 2000-2002 Short-term Indicant Bears were near mirror images of one another.

A buyer just before the October 1929 stock market crash waited over twenty-years just to get back to break-even. Including inflation, it took that poor soul over thirty-five years to break-even. Most of us do not have that much time on our hands and even if we did, we would not enjoy that. By virtue of you reading this, that is exactly what you want to avoid.

If history repeats itself, an occasional phenomenon, a thirty-year-old buyer will be around sixty-years-old before he breaks even on his or her March 2000 NASDAQ investments. If that investor was seventy-years old, then ……….

Prior to the stock market crash of 1987 less than 30% of the U.S. households were owners of stocks. By the middle 1990’s more than one-half of all households were owners of stocks and funds. The market crash of early 2000 ruined many retirement plans. Many of those people will not re-enter the market, just as those who were burned in 1987 have not re-entered the market. Many of them regrettably avoided the great bull market of the 1990’s. The crash of 1987 was a mere correction that quickly recovered. The NASDAQ crash of 2000-2002 has not yet recovered.

However, there are plenty of first time investors arriving to the market every year. They will replace those who now refuse to invest. Eventually, many of them will make the same mistakes as those earlier failures and join the ranks of the non-participants. The cycle continues to repeat itself.

This bull market began in October 2002 right on cue with the phenomenon of the mid-term election year cycle, where the market typically finds bottom. We enjoyed the presidential pre-election year bull market, which is the most bullish on the presidential election year cycle. The election year, which is currently underway, is the second most bullish year on that cycle.

The average presidential pre-election year gain is 10.6%. The Dow increased 25.3% in 2003. As you can see, the 2003 Bull Market significantly exceeded the average. The average presidential election year gain is 6.5% since 1832. That includes the calamity of Woodrow Wilson’s 1921 drop of 32.9%. The average election year gain is 11.2% when the pre-election year exceeds a 25% gain. If history repeats in 2004, we expect continuing bullish expressions. Excluding Woodrow Wilson’s 1921 bear market from the ten prior pre-election year gains of 25% or more, the average election year gain amounts to 16.3%. The number of election years where the market finishes higher outnumbers down years by a factor of two to one. The odds for a bullish election year are high for 2004.

Remember, politicians have little positive influence on the economy. Their only influence is to undo their prior damage.

The market is already up this year. The Dow is up 1.7% so far this year. The S&P500 is up a very healthy 3.0%, while the NASDAQ is up 2.5%. Look at the Perspectives Charts again. Intuitively, you can see several indices have moved up very well since the current bull market began in October 2002. You can also see, the S&P600 is dropping off its breakout line. The Indicant does not use intuition to gauge the market’s direction. However, based on intuition, alone, it would not be surprising to see normal bearish seasonality unfold in the next few weeks. After that, one can expect the resumption of bullish seasonality kick into play just before this year’s election.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and two sell signals.

In addition to the sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding thirteen stocks and funds of the 296 tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 27.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 42.5 weeks ago.

There were one-hundred and seventy-four avoided stocks and funds at this time last year in addition to eight sell signals. Last year’s early first quarter selling spree was coming to an end as the market was beginning a subtle shift from bearish expressions to bullish expressions. Many of you recall the second wave of tremendous buying of stocks and especially mutual funds in March 2003. Nearly all of the funds with current hold positions were bought in March 2003.

The avoided stocks and funds one year ago were down an average of 8.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 5.2 weeks earlier. As sated the past three weeks, the
December-02 through February-03 rolling quarter was the third worse in the history of the NASDAQ. That contrarian bearish behavior was offset by contrarian bullish behavior in the second half of 2003. So far, that bullishness is continuing into 2004.

The Mid-term Indicant is currently signaling hold for 281 of the 296 stocks and funds currently tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 68.5%, which is up by 1%-age point from last week. That annualizes to 85.6%, which is down from 124.1% reported on June 7, 2003, but up from 50.2% reported exactly one year ago on February 15, 2003. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 281 stocks and funds for an average of 41.7 weeks.

The stocks/funds with hold signals amounted to only 106 after the extensive selling at this time last year. At that time, the Mid-term Indicant was holding those stocks and funds for an average of 27.1 weeks. They were up 26.1% (annualized at 50.2%). Most of last year’s selling spree was directed at mutual funds. As stated last week, several individual stocks continued to climb last year in the face of Quarter I-03 bearish expressions.

This paragraph is a repeat from last several weeks with a few modifications. The current bull market and buying barrage in late 2002 followed the predicted market bottom in 2002. The mid-term presidential election year phenomenon was consistent with history. Even more impressive was how the market synchronized with near perfection with normal seasonality. The Dow30 found bottom on October 9, 2002 at 7286.27. The NASDAQ found bottom on the same day at 1114.11. As earlier stated, the Indicant began its buying barrage in October – November 2002 just after the market bottomed from the severe 2000-2002 Bear Market. Some of you recall the Short-term Indicant Bear for the NASDAQ was the longest in history. It even exceeded the Dow’s 1929-1932 Short-term Indicant Bear. The good news is that the NASDAQ’s decline did not lead to a depression, which is a clear indication of how little influence the tech stocks have on the economy.

This paragraph is similar to the past several weeks with a few modifications slanted for 2004 interpretations. We want to make certain you understand this. The mid-term election year phenomenon found the market bottom, right on cue in 2002. The presidential pre-election year phenomenon is the most bullish year on the presidential election cycle. We have now completed our enjoyment of that in 2003. The second most bullish year along the presidential election cycle is the election year, which is underway in 2004. We are anticipating enjoyment of that as well. The following link will take you to charts that explain this phenomenon, which is currently underway and for you to enjoy. It is in a “members only” section. This paragraph will repeat throughout this year.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0001.htm

Make certain you read the entire pages on the above link. You will see there are exceptions. So far, we do not expect 2004 to be an exception. If it becomes an exception, the Quick-term Indicant and the other Indicant models will let you know.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant continues recommending the more tolerant stop loss of 8%. You may want to increase that to 10% if your current hold position is up over 50%. We are still into bullish seasonality, backed by the normally bullish presidential election year. When the Quick-term Indicant signals bear, you should adjust your stop losses to 5%.

Use either an 8% (or 10%) trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 8% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 15% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds in those “bearish” conditions. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only. Be patient with this download. It takes a few minutes.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information is on a single page in the web site. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

As was the case last week, most equity related sectors are still in bullish domains. As stated the past few weeks, a pullback in February would not be surprising based on historical behavior. All equity sectors continue as red bulls. We are still enjoying equity convergence, although softening somewhat. The market is basically at a standstill, which is much better than last year’s January-February bearish expressions.

Economic Outlook

Oil moved from neutral to bullish domains last week. That movement was not with gusto. The Dow Jones Futures, Dow Jones Spot, Reuter UK, CRB Bridge Futures, and Gold continue with red bull status. As stated the past few weeks, commodities continue to express choppy behavior at what appears to be a cyclical peak. The equity markets will respond with bullish fervor with decreasing commodity prices. This equity bull has been anticipating this cyclical behavior. If the commodities do not accommodate this expectation, the bull may fall victim to a resurging bear. That scenario may not occur until the normally bearish post presidential election year.

Although somewhat boring, the Indicant is chartered to inform – not entertain. Therefore, the remainder of this paragraph remains unchanged from the past few weeks. Interest rates are not threatening to the equity related bull market. Nothing changed significantly from last week. They remain at historically low levels. Productivity growth continues to be the market’s salvation.

The Canadian dollar rebounded to bullish domains last week. It, along with all other currencies remains cyclically strong against the U.S. Dollar. All other major currencies continue to express strength against the greenback.

All economic data is at the following link:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Eighty-eight weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Eighty-one weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Seventy-two weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 98.5%, which is significantly higher than 47.1% reported thirty weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate is 41.6%, which is up from 28.8% reported thirty weeks ago. This fund is up significantly the past two weeks.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% eighty-six weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Seventy-nine weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 121.6%, which is higher than the 75.9% reported thirty weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 42.2%, which is higher than 23.1% reported thirty weeks ago. This fund is up slightly the past two weeks.

As always stated you can monitor the above two funds and the options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg. The current bull is a nice one, but lacking dynamic growth.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Forty-two weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant to signal bull. Since the Mid-term Indicant’s bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 51.2%. Five weeks ago it was up 63.6% since the May 3, 2003 Mid-term Bull signal. This index is up significantly from 18.8% reported thirty weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is 64.3%, which is more than the 50.7% reported thirty weeks ago, but lower than 142.5% reported thirty-four weeks ago. Five weeks ago, the annualized growth rate since the bull signal was 90.9%. As you can see, gold prices may be beyond its cyclical peak. If that continues, expect the stock market to accelerate its bullish pattern. However, the past two weeks of bullish behavior suggests continuing delays to an open invitation to more robust bullish expressions by the equity bear.

Gold prices will tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It, along with the stock market, will also tumble in the improbable event of deflation. This index continues to move north, which is inconsistent with equity related bulls. Continuing weaknesses in gold and other commodities will jolt the equity markets to the north.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

For the third consecutive week, none of the eight major indices enjoyed red bull status. As has been stated for quite some time your hold positions are safe, but not to the extent they were four weeks ago. Keep in mind, individual stocks react differently to shifting market direction. They chart their own course, although overall market behavior influences the direction of the majority of stocks. So, make certain your stop losses are up to date. As stated for the past few weeks, the market is biased with non-bullishness. That does not mean it is about to turn bearish, but the possibility is now upon us.

The eight major indices are up an average of 8.2% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bull on October 28, 2003. That annualizes to 27.8%. It is not likely the market will rise by that amount by October 28, 2004. As stated the past few weeks, it would not be surprising to endure normal bearish seasonality in 2004 only to enjoy a bullish bounce just before the election this year. The Indicant will keep you posted on that.

Force Vectors continue their quick up and down oscillations. They turned south late last week. Their most recent cyclical peak is lower than the prior one. That supports Quick-term non-bullishness. The Force Vectors are back into bullish domain from their recent northerly movement. Their movement continues lazy, which has been a continuing characteristic of this bull. They continue to exclude robust movement since October 2002. However, there are no complaints, here. Slow and steady bull markets are just fine.

Vector Pressure remains in bullish domains but the direction is toward bearish domains. Watch your email. If Vector Pressure becomes negative, there will be increased selling pressure applied to stocks and funds. The Mid-term Indicant does not hesitate on generating sell signals when Vector Pressure is negative.

Keep in mind, Force Vectors and Vector Pressure are eight dimensional and cannot be plotted. We continue to research methods to convert to two dimensional arrays so you can see them. Until then, we will continue to use words to describe them.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator continues the southerly movement it started last week. As stated last week, this indicates there is no rush of sellers to dump stocks. That bodes well as depressing volume on bearish market expressions offers a non-bearish undercurrent. The NYSE’s Indicant Volume Indicator turned south also last week. The market is also biasing non-bullishness. It is in a state of equilibrium right now.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The Dow is up 9.0% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bull on November 24, 2004. That annualizes to 40.7%. The Dow’s Short-term Indicant Bull is now eighty-one calendar days old against an average life cycle of only forty days. The NASDAQ Short-term Bull is now a brand new one. Continue to expect increased signal activity over the next few weeks.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

Perspectives

As stated last week, you will notice the S&P600 Index is coming off all time high. The bullish expressions are about to cool. As stated the past two weeks, the market appears poised to allow February to exert some bearish pressure. Your hold positions are still safe, but your paper net worth is about to take a few hits, while at the same time you will continue to enjoy double-digit growth positions from your buy points.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant, please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All eight major indices continue as red bulls. That expression provides a safety net for your current hold positions, although the Quick-term Indicant has been revealing some bearish expressions. They are up an average of 22.0% for an annualized gain of 33.5% since the MTI Bull signals an average of 34.1 weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is down from 47.9% reported thirty-six weeks ago.

The DJIA is up 24.7% (annualized at 27.3%) since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003.  That is up from 14.1% reported seventeen weeks ago. The NASDAQ Composite is the strongest Mid-term Bull. It is up 44.5% since the March 22, 2003 MTI Bull signal, which is up from 34.6% reported eighteen ago. That annualizes to 49.2%.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Twenty-two of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 85.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 58.6 weeks ago for an annualized gain of 76.2%, which is slightly greater than the 72.9% reported thirty-six weeks ago.

None of the foreign indices is a Mid-term Indicant Bear.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

Feb 08, 2004 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 2, Issue 2 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members: 

This Week’s Report

A Healthy Correction

Corrections in bull cycles are seldom enjoyable. Pundits invented that term to justify their bull signals shortly before the market turned bearish. Sometimes the market accommodated them with a quick bullish reversal. Sometimes the market continued moving south on the charts with bearish ferocity.

Those who were lucky with the bullish reversal invented another term. They called the shallow and short-lived dip a “healthy correction.” That gave them more airtime to pontificate their precision is forecasting stock market twists and turns.

The Indicant does not care about corrections or even healthy corrections. It signals bear when the market moves south. It signals bull when the market moves north. There is no need to speculate on the impending magnitude of bearish or bullish behavior. When the market engages in cyclical reversals is enough to prompt the Indicant to provide the appropriate signal.

If the market is moving to the south from a lofty position, the Indicant will not always signal bear. Likewise, if the market is moving north from a shallow position, the Indicant may not signal bull.

Sometimes the market moves too high too fast to these lofty positions. When the market is above the Quick-term Indicant bullish red curve by over 2.5% there is a tendency for it to gravitate back to that curve. Even though the market is expressing bearish behavior during that gravitational pull, it is still a bull. Sometimes it bounces off the bullish red curve and returns to a lofty state. Sometimes it continues to move south. Sometimes it vacillates between bullish red and bearish yellow and meanders alone in a directionless sense. It is amazing the market spends less time in this directionless mode that it does with a specific, purposeful direction to the north or the south.

The current bull market, which began in October 2002, has not been that dynamic. However, its birth began with some gusto. The Dow was up 10.6% in October 2002, which was that year’s best performing month. In fact, it was the best performing October since 1950. The NASDAQ was up a whopping 13.5% in October 2002. That was the best performing NASDAQ November since 1974. Both indices growth rates in October were above average by over five fold. November’s growth exceeded average growth by over two fold.

That profound bullish birth and embryonic period was followed by the worst December since 1932 for the Dow and the worse ever NASDAQ December. That was a correction. Some call it a health correction because the market rebounded nicely late into the first calendar quarter of 2003. In October-November 2002 the market had gotten ahead of itself. It had moved too far and too fast, even though that bull’s birth followed a horrendously long NASDAQ bear market. Some say the 2001-2002 Bear Market got ahead of itself. All this bull is doing is correcting the bear of 2001-2002. The Mid-term Indicant did not signal bear in December 2002 and many of the stocks and funds continued receiving hold signals.

As previously stated in prior weekly reports, January 2003 was disappointing. It was unseasonably down. Even with the unseasonable and poorly performing December 2002, the market did not rebound in January. There was no bullish correction to December’s lowly performance in January 2003. Even though the Dow’s December was the worst since 1931, it was down by 6.2%. That pales when compared to the Dow’s December in 1931 when it crashed by a whopping 17.0%. There was no Santa Clause rally in 1931 and 2002, but there was a huge difference in magnitude in these two bearish Decembers.

The cumulative performance for Dow’s October and November 2002 was 16.5%. The Dow’s down December brought the fourth quarter growth rate to a still healthy 10.2%. In other words, the market merely retreated to the bullish red curve on the Quick-term and Mid-term Indicants. However, the poorly performing January 2003 and the typical low performing February stimulated the Mid-term Indicant to signal bear and sell nearly all of the mutual funds in early 2003. By February 15, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was holding only seven mutual funds out of the seventy-six being tracked. That contrasted significantly from November 30, 2002, when the Mid-term Indicant was holding seventy-five funds out of the seventy-six it tracks. Most of the funds were avoided throughout most of 2001 and 2002 followed by a healthy buying spree in October 2002. The only avoided fund on November 30, 2002 was the contrarian Pro-Funds Ultra Short.

However, the bearish expressions in early 2003 did not prompt that many sell signals for stocks. Many of the stocks with hold signals today originated with October-November 2002 buy signals. The market’s bearish expressions in Quarter 1, 2003 had depth but many of the former NASDAQ100 stocks did not drop in price. Even though we took profits on some of those stocks in 2003, their current hold signals were quickly renewed with buy signals throughout 2003.

So far this year, the market has not gotten too far ahead of itself. Although January 2004 finished up, its northerly movement was below the January average. The early part of January 2004 was bearish. The second half of January was profoundly bullish. Several of the eight major indices were well above the bullish red curve by more than 2.5% at the conclusion of January. That is one reason for the February doldrums. January is the NASDAQ’s most bullish month and that is another reason why February is a poor month. It is hard for the strongest month’s succeeding month to tout bullish statistics. Since 1950, the S&P500 has only two months with a negative average growth rate; February and October. Investing only in those two months over a period of fifty plus years would lose money for you.

Last week, the Short-term Indicant signaled bear for the NASDAQ as it retreated to close to the Quick-term’s bearish yellow curve. Friday’s explosive bullish expressions returned it to bull status. That was a short-lived bear, lasting only two days. That contrasts with the longest Short-term Indicant Bear, which occurred in from March 2000 through early 2003 on the NASDAQ index. It lasted longer than the great bear market of 1929 through 1932.

When the market is going through these so-called corrections and even the so-called healthy corrections, the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant’s get nervous. Massive waves of profit taking can set off a frenzied bear. The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant does not discriminate on reasons why the market goes up or down. They only detect direction that has a high probability of continuing in whatever direction is underway and lets you know. As long as the Mid-term Indicant continues to signal bull, all is okay, unless otherwise noted. The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant provide you an early warning of any impending shift in the market’s direction. The buy and hold signals stand alone, as each stock and fund stands alone. Even in a bear market, some stocks go up, as well as the contrarian Profunds Ultra Short and some commodity related funds.

Do not be surprised at some bear and bull signals in the next few weeks from the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant. Even though the market is not ahead of itself on a Quick-term and Short-term basis, it is a bull that is ripe for some major profit taking. That should not occur until after March, but February has a history of favoring bears.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated two buy signals and one sell signal.

In addition to the sell signal, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding twelve stocks and funds of the 296 tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 27.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 41.6 weeks ago.

There were one-hundred and fifty avoided stocks and funds at this time last year in addition to thirty-two sell signals. As stated last week, the rolling quarter November 2002 through January 2003 was the antithesis of normal behavior. The markets were actually down at this time last year. That weakness triggered several sell signals at this time one year ago.

The avoided stocks and funds one year ago were down an average of 8.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 5.4 weeks earlier. As sated the past two weeks, the December-02 through February-03 rolling quarter was the third worse in the history of the NASDAQ. That contrarian bearish behavior was offset by contrarian bullish behavior in the second half of 2003.

In addition to the buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is currently signaling hold for 281 of the 296 stocks and funds currently tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 67.5%, which is up from last week. That annualizes to 86.2%, which is down from 124.1% reported on June 7, 2003, but up from 50.2% reported on February 15, 2003. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 281 stocks and funds for an average of 40.7 weeks.

The stocks/funds with hold signals amounted to only 112 after the extensive selling at this time last year. At that time, the Mid-term Indicant was holding those stocks and funds for an average of 24.9 weeks. They were up 24.5% (annualized at 51.2%). Most of last year’s selling spree was directed at mutual funds. Several individual stocks continued to climb last year in the face of bear market expressions.

This paragraph is a repeat from last several weeks with a few modifications. The current bull market and buying barrage in late 2002 followed the predicted market bottom in 2002. The mid-term presidential election year phenomenon occurred consistent with history. Even more impressive was how the market synchronized with near perfection with normal seasonality. The Dow30 found bottom on October 9, 2002 at 7286.27. The NASDAQ found bottom on the same day at 1114.11. As earlier stated, the Indicant began its buying barrage in October – November 2002 just after the market bottomed from the severe 2000-2002 Bear Market. Some of you recall the Short-term Indicant Bear for the NASDAQ was the longest in history. It even exceeded the Dow’s 1929-1932 Short-term Indicant Bear. The good news is that the NASDAQ’s decline did not lead to a depression, which is a clear indication of how little influence the tech stocks have on the economy.

This paragraph is similar to the past several weeks with a few modifications slanted for 2004 interpretations. We want to make certain you understand this. The mid-term election year phenomenon found the market bottom, right on cue in 2002. The presidential pre-election year phenomenon is the most bullish year on the presidential election cycle. We have now completed our enjoyment of that in 2003. The second most bullish year along the presidential election cycle is the election year, which is underway in 2004. We are anticipating enjoyment of that as well. The following link will take you to charts that explain this phenomenon, which is currently underway and for you to enjoy. It is in a “members only” section. This paragraph will repeat throughout this year.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0001.htm

Make certain you read the entire pages on the above link. You will see there are exceptions. So far, we do not expect 2004 to be an exception. If it becomes an exception, the Quick-term Indicant and the other Indicant models will let you know.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant continues recommending the more tolerant stop loss of 8%. You may want to increase that to 10% if your current hold position is up over 50%. We are still into bullish seasonality, backed by the presidential election year. When the Quick-term Indicant signals bear, you should adjust your stop losses to 5%.

Use either an 8% (or 10%) trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 8% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 15% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds in those “bearish” conditions. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only. Be patient with this download. It takes a few minutes.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information is on a single page in the web site. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

Counter cyclical and contrarian sectors rebounded from last week’s outright bearishness to neutral this past week. However, as was the case last week, most equity related sectors are still in bullish domains. As stated last week, a pullback in February would not be surprising based on historical behavior. All equity sectors continue as red bulls. We are still enjoying equity convergence, although softening somewhat.

Economic Outlook

Nothing changed from last week. Oil remains neutral, while the Dow Jones Futures, Dow Jones Spot, Reuter UK, CRB Bridge Futures, and Gold continue with red bull status. Commodities continue to express choppy behavior at what appears to be a cyclical peak. The equity markets will respond with bullish fervor with decreasing commodity prices. This equity bull has been anticipating this cyclical behavior. If the commodities do not accommodate this expectation, the bull may fall victim to a resurging bear.

Interest rates are not threatening to the equity related bull market. Nothing changed significantly from last week. They remain at historically low levels. Productivity growth continues to be the market’s salvation.

The Canadian Dollar weakened to neutrality last week, although still cyclically strong against the U.S. Dollar. All other major currencies continue to express strength against the greenback.

All economic data is at the following link:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Eighty-seven weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Eighty weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Seventy-one weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 91.5%, which is significantly higher than 47.1% reported twenty-nine weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate is 41.6%, which is up from 28.8% reported twenty-nine weeks ago. This fund was up significantly last week after being down significantly the prior week.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% eighty-five weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Seventy-eight weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 112.1%, which is higher than the 75.9% reported twenty-nine weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 39.2%, which is higher than 23.1% reported twenty-nine weeks ago. This fund was up slightly last week.

As stated in the past you can monitor the above two funds and the options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg. The current bull is a nice one, but lacking dynamic growth.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Forty-one weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant to signal bull. Since the Mid-term Indicant’s bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 49.4%. Four weeks ago it was up 63.6% since the May 3, 2003 Mid-term Bull signal. Although Gold prices plummeted four weeks ago, they are up significantly from 18.8% reported twenty-nine weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is 63.5%, which is more than the 50.7% reported twenty-nine weeks ago, but lower than 142.5% reported thirty-three weeks ago. Four weeks ago, the annualized growth rate since the bull signal was 90.9%. As you can see, gold prices may be beyond its cyclical peak. If that continues, expect the stock market to accelerate its bullish pattern. However, this index was up strongly last week. It was one of those “corrections.”

Gold prices will tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It, along with the stock market, will also tumble in the improbable event of deflation. This index continues to move north, which is inconsistent with equity related bulls. Continuing weaknesses in gold and other commodities will jolt the equity markets to the north.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

For the second consecutive week, none of the eight major indices enjoy red bull status. The degree of relaxation is no longer at its maximum.  As has been stated for quite some time your hold positions are safe, but not to the extent they were three weeks ago. Keep in mind, individual stocks react differently to shifting market direction. They chart their own course. So, make certain your stop losses are up to date. The market is now biased with non-bullishness. That does not mean it is about to turn bearish, but the possibility is now upon us.

The eight major indices are up an average of 8.1% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bull on October 28, 2003. That annualizes to 28.9%. It is not likely the market will rise by that amount by October 28, 2004. As stated the past few weeks, it would not be surprising to endure normal bearish seasonality in 2004 only to enjoy a bullish bounce just before the election this year. The Indicant will keep you posted on that.

Force Vectors continue their quick up and down oscillations. After moving to the south for several days, they started moving to the north last Wednesday. However, they are now in bearish domains. Their movement continues lazy. They have not expressed robust movement since October 2002. Vector Pressure remains in bullish domains but the direction is toward bearish domains. Watch your email. If Vector Pressure becomes negative, there will be increased selling pressure applied to stocks and funds. The Mid-term Indicant does not hesitate on generating sell signals when Vector Pressure is negative.

Keep in mind, Force Vectors and Vector Pressure are eight dimensional and cannot be plotted. We continue to research methods to convert to two dimensional arrays so you can see them. Until then, we will continue to use words to describe them.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator is turning south. That bodes well as depressing volume on bearish market expressions offers a non-bearish undercurrent. The NYSE’s Indicant Volume Indicator continues to demonstrate robust expressions, but also softening.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

As previously stated, the Short-term Indicant signaled a NASDAQ bear last Wednesday, but signaled bull last Friday. The Dow is up 8.7% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bull on November 24, 2004. That annualizes to 42.2%. The Dow’s Short-term Indicant Bull is now seventy-five calendar days old against an average life cycle of only forty days. The NASDAQ Short-term Bull is now a brand new one. Expect increased signal activity over the next few weeks.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

Perspectives

By clicking on the following link, you will notice the S&P600 Index is coming off all time high. The bullish expressions are about to cool. As stated last week, the market appears poised to allow February to exert some bearish pressure. Your hold positions are still safe, but your paper net worth is about to take a few hits, while at the same time you will continue to enjoy double-digit growth positions from your buy points.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant, please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All eight major indices continue as red bulls. That expression provides a safety net for your current hold positions, although the Quick-term Indicant has been revealing some bearish expressions. They are up an average of 21.9% for an annualized gain of 34.3% since the MTI Bull signals an average of 33.1 weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is down from 47.9% reported thirty-five weeks ago.

The DJIA is up 24.3% since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003.  That is up from 14.1% reported sixteen weeks ago. The NASDAQ Composite is the strongest Mid-term Bull. It is up 45.2% since the March 22, 2003 MTI Bull signal, which is up from 34.6% reported sixteen weeks ago. That annualizes to 168.0%, which is up from 80.9% reported twenty-seven weeks ago. All eight major indices were down last week.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Twenty-two of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 82.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 57.6 weeks ago for an annualized gain of 74.4%, which is slightly greater than the 72.9% reported thirty-five weeks ago.

None of the foreign indices is a Mid-term Indicant Bear.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

Feb 01, 2004 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 2, Issue 1 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

Bullish Seasonality – Part 10

Before elaborating on seasonality, an interesting phenomenon occurred this past week. One of the Indicant Selected Stock crossed over the 1,000% growth mark since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy. Many of you recall the buying spree in late 2002. One of the stocks receiving a buy signal at that time was Nortel. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy for #26 Nortel, NT, at sixty-three cents on October 18, 2002. The stock is now at $7.86. It is up by 1,147.6%.

Interestingly, the stock is down 90.5% since its all time weekly closing high of $82.51, established on September 1, 2000. As you can see, buy and holding is risky for stocks. Buying 10,000 shares in September 1, 2000 cost $825,000. The stock bottomed on October 11, 2002 at forty-three cents. That $825,000 shriveled to $4,300. Very few individuals have $825,000 to invest in stocks, but if they did, it should not exceed 10% of their investing resources.

Buying 10,000 shares when the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy would cost approximately $6,300, plus commission. Those same shares are now worth $78,600, less commission. Some investors kick themselves for not buying more shares. There are too many volatile elements influencing stock prices to get too greedy. Anyone from the over-rated Wall Street Analysts to dilettante managers and voodoo bookkeepers can wreak havoc on stock prices.

Now, let us continue our discussion about seasonality from last week’s report. If you invested $10,000 in the S&P500 since 1950 only in the month of February, you would have only $9,219. February is internal the six-months of bullish seasonality, but it is there only because it is between the beginning and ending of the six-month period. It is one of the three months of the year where money would be lost if only invested in those three months since 1950. The other two losing months are August and September.

A $10,000 investment in the NASDAQ February from 1970 and only held in February, would have amounted to only $11,133 by February 2003. That pales in comparison the NASDAQ January’s $31,992. January is historically the most bullish month for the NASDAQ. The average gain in January since 1970 amounts to 3.8%. The NASDAQ January 2004 came in pretty close to average with a gain of 3.1%.

We have now departed from the most bullish period of the year, but are still inside the six-month bullish cycle. As previously stated, February is the third most bearish month of the year for the S&P500. The NASDAQ December-January bi-monthly period is the most bullish of the year. It is the second most bi-monthly bullish period for the Dow and S&P500. The most bullish rolling quarter for all three major indices is November through January. That particular rolling quarter exceeded historical averages. The Dow was up 7.0% from November 2003 through January 2004. The S&P500 and NASDAQ rolling quarter, ending January 2004 was 7.7% and 6.9%, respectively. The Dow and S&P500 exceeded their average performance since 1950, while the NASDAQ fell short of its average performance since 1970.

Although the rolling quarter from December through February is bullish, the market’s above average performance in the prior November-January rolling quarter, coupled with February’s historical bearish expressions is cause for some concern. Nothing major, but vigilant watching is the order of the day.

As stated in recent daily reports, do not be surprised if the major indices return to their bullish red curves. That has already occurred in the Quick-term Indicant model. That is now expected in the Mid-term Indicant model. There will be more about the Quick-term Indicant and Mid-term Indicant later in this report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and six sell signals.

In addition to the sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding eight stocks and funds of the 296 tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 27.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 42.4 weeks ago.

There were ninety-five avoided stocks and funds at this time last year and there were fifty-seven sell signals. The rolling quarter November 2002 through January 2003 was the antithesis of normal behavior. The markets were actually down at this time last year. That weakness triggered several sell signals at this time one year ago.

The avoided stocks and funds one year ago were down an average of 6.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 5.3 weeks earlier. As sated last week, the December-02 through February-03 rolling quarter was the third worse in the history of the NASDAQ. That contrarian bearish behavior was offset by contrarian bullish behavior in the second half of the year.

The Mid-term Indicant is currently signaling hold for 282 of the 296 stocks and funds currently tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 67.1%, which is down from last week. That annualizes to 88.0%, which is down from 124.1% reported on June 7, 2003, but up from 50.2% reported on February 15, 2003. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 282 stocks and funds for an average of 39.7 weeks.

The stocks/funds with hold signals amounted to only 137 after the extensive selling at this time last year. At that time, the Mid-term Indicant was holding those stocks and funds for an average of 22.2 weeks. They were up 26.5% (annualized at 62.2%). Most of the selling last year was directed at mutual funds, as several individual stocks continued to climb last year in the face of bear market expressions. At this time one year ago, Nortel was up 267% to $2.37. This past week, it is up over 1,000%.

This paragraph is a repeat from last several weeks with a few modifications. The current bull market and buying barrage in late 2002 followed the predicted market bottom in 2002. The mid-term presidential election year phenomenon occurred consistent with history. Even more impressive was how the market synchronized with near perfection with normal seasonality. The Dow30 found bottom on October 9, 2002 at 7286.27. The NASDAQ found bottom on the same day at 1114.11. As earlier stated, the Indicant began its buying barrage in October – November 2002 just after the market bottomed from the severe 2000-2002 Bear Market. Some of you recall the Short-term Indicant Bear for the NASDAQ was the longest in history. It even exceeded the Dow’s 1929-1931 Short-term Indicant Bear. The good news is that the NASDAQ’s decline did not lead to a depression, which is a clear indication of how little influence the tech stocks have on the economy.

This paragraph is similar to the past several weeks with a few modifications slanted for 2004 interpretations. We want to make certain you understand this. The mid-term election year phenomenon found the market bottom, right on cue in 2002. The presidential pre-election year phenomenon is the most bullish year on the presidential election cycle. We have now completed our enjoyment of that in 2003. The second most bullish year along the presidential election cycle is the election year, which is underway in 2004. We are anticipating enjoyment of that as well. The following link will take you to charts that explain this phenomenon, which is currently underway and for you to enjoy. It is in a “members only” section. This paragraph will repeat throughout this year.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0001.htm

Make certain you read the entire pages on the above link. You will see there are exceptions. So far, we do not expect 2004 to be an exception. If it becomes an exception, the Quick-term Indicant and the other Indicant models will let you know.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant continues recommending the more tolerant stop loss of 8%. You may want to increase that to 10% if your current hold position is up over 50%. We are still into bullish seasonality, backed by the presidential election year. When the Quick-term Indicant signals bear, you should adjust your stop losses to 5%.

Use either an 8% (or 10%) trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 8% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 15% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds in those “bearish” conditions. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only. Be patient with this download. It takes a few minutes.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information is on a single page in the web site. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

Counter cyclical and contrarian sectors moved from outright bearishness to simple bearishness on last week’s bearish expressions in the equity markets. However, most equity related sectors are still in bullish domains. A pullback in February would not be surprising based on historical behavior and the markets appear over-bought at this time. All equity sectors continue as red bulls. We are still enjoying equity convergence, although softening somewhat.

Economic Outlook

Oil fell from red bull status, while the Dow Jones Futures, Dow Jones Spot, Reuter UK, CRB Bridge Futures,  and Gold continue with red bull status. Last week it was noted the markets are anticipating a drop in commodities. That makes sense, as commodities have been at cyclical peaks for quite some time. The charts reveal choppy behavior at what appears to be a cyclical peak. The equity markets will express bullish excitement if commodities nosedive over the next few months. So far, they have not indicated they will do so, but the choppy behavior is enough to generate some excite. It should buffer against February’s normal expressions.

The Three-Month T-Bill moved from extreme bearishness to simple bearishness last week. It crossed above yellow for the first time since late 2000. This is not cause for concern at this time, since it is still at historical lows. Equity bulls do not like it moving robustly to the north. There is little chance of that occurring in the near future. The system is geared toward the re-election of the incumbent president. Rapid increases in interest rates would dampen economic growth and create a political disadvantage for George W. Bush and pals.

Like commodities, the charts are revealing some choppiness at cyclical bottoms for the  U.S. Dollar. Although it continues to be extremely weak against world currencies, the rate of the dollars decline is subsiding. A strengthening dollar at this time of the political election cycle should not produce any adverse impact to the incumbent president as long as its recovery is mild. The votes tied to export related industries should continue to be dedicated toward George W. Bush.

All economic data is at the following link:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Eighty-six weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Seventy-nine weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Seventy weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 85.8%, which is significantly higher than 47.1% reported twenty-eight weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate is 39.4%, which is up from 28.8% reported twenty-eight weeks ago. This fund was down significantly last week.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% eighty-four weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Seventy-seven weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 109.5%, which is higher than the 75.9% reported twenty-eight weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 38.5%, which is higher than 23.1% reported twenty-eight weeks ago. This fund was also down significantly last week.

As stated in the past you can monitor the above two funds and the options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg. The current bull is a nice one, but lacking dynamic growth.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Forty weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant to signal new bull. Since the Mid-term Indicant’s bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 41.5%. Three weeks ago it was up 63.6% since the May 3, 2003 Mid-term Bull signal. Although Gold prices plummeted three weeks ago, they are up significantly from 18.8% reported twenty-eight weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is 54.7%, which is more than the 50.7% reported twenty-eight weeks ago, but lower than 142.5% reported thirty-two weeks ago. Three weeks ago, the annualized growth rate since the bull signal was 90.9%. As you can see, gold prices may be beyond its cyclical peak. If that continues, expect the stock market to accelerate its bullish pattern.

Gold prices will tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It, along with the stock market, will also tumble in the improbable event of deflation. This index continues to move north, which is inconsistent with equity related bulls. Continuing weaknesses in gold and other commodities will jolt the equity markets to the north.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

None of the eight major indices are red bulls. The degree of relaxation is no longer at its maximum.  As has been stated for quite some time your hold positions are safe, but not to the extent they were two weeks ago. Keep in mind, individual stocks react differently to shifting market direction. They chart their own course. So, make certain your stop losses are up to date. The market is now biased with non-bullishness. That does not mean it is about to turn bearish, but the possibility is now upon us.

The eight major indices are up 7.3% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bull on October 28, 2003. That annualizes to 28.0%. It is not likely the market will rise by that amount by October 28, 2004. As stated last week, it would not be surprising to endure normal bearish seasonality in 2004 only to enjoy a bullish bounce just before the election this year. The Indicant will keep you posted on that.

As stated for the past several weeks, Force Vectors continue their quick up and down oscillations. They are now moving to the south. For the first time in several weeks, Force Vectors are in bearish domains. Their movement is not dynamic, but it is cause for concern. Vector Pressure remains in bullish domains but has shifted in direction toward bearish domains. Watch your email. If Vector Pressure becomes negative, there will be increased selling pressure applied to stocks and funds. The Mid-term Indicant does not hesitate on generating sell signals when Vector Pressure is negative.

Keep in mind, Force Vectors and Vector Pressure are eight dimensional and cannot be plotted. We continue to research methods to convert to two dimensional arrays so you can see them. Until then, we will continue to use words to describe them.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The Indicant Volume Indicator continues maturing robust movement. So far, that movement has supported bullish behavior. However, if the market accelerates recent bearish expressions, look for reduced activity by the Indicant Volume Indicator. We do not want to see robust movement on a declining stock market.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The two combined indexes are up by an average of 6.9% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bull on November 24, 2003. That annualizes to 36.3%. The Dow is up 7.6% and the NASDAQ is up 6.1% since the November 24, 2003 Short-term Indicant Bull signal. Both of these indices have been Short-term Bulls for sixty-eight calendar days, exceeding an average STI Cycle of 39.6 days for the Dow and 34.0 days for the NASDAQ. The Dow’s annualized growth rate since the November 24, 2003 Bull signal is 40.8% while the NASDAQ’s rate is 32.8%. Both annualized rates dropped by over 40% last week.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

Perspectives

By clicking on the following link, you will notice the S&P600 Index is coming off all time high. The bullish expressions are about to cool. As stated last week, the market appears poised to allow February to exert some bearish pressure. Your hold positions are still safe, but your paper net worth is about to take a few hits, while at the same time you will continue to enjoy double-digit growth positions from your buy points.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant, please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All eight major indices continue as red bulls. That expression provides a safety net for your current hold positions, although the Quick-term Indicant is favoring bearish expressions. They are up an average of 21.4% for an annualized gain of 34.6% since the MTI Bull signals an average of 32.1 weeks ago. The annualized growth rate is down from 47.9% reported thirty-four weeks ago.

The DJIA is up 23.1% since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003.  That is up from 14.1% reported fifteen weeks ago. The NASDAQ Composite is the strongest Mid-term Bull. It is up 45.4% since the March 22, 2003 MTI Bull signal, which is up from 34.6% reported fifteen weeks ago. That annualizes to 158.8%, which is up from 80.9% reported twenty-six weeks ago. All eight major indices were down last week.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Twenty-two of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 81.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 56.6 weeks ago for an annualized gain of 75.2%, which is slightly greater than the 72.9% reported thirty-four weeks ago.

None of the foreign indices is a Mid-term Indicant Bear.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

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