February 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Reports

Feb 28, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

No Philosophy, Just Volume

Before starting, you will want to click this sentence. It will display charts of the NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators. The comparisons between the March 2003 bull leg and the March 2009 bull legs are interesting. There are other points of interest, but first, it is important to observe the salient point.

You will notice the Indicant Volume Indicator increased with the March 2003 bull leg, while it decreased with the March 2010 bull leg. Furthermore, you should notice the late January 2010 bearish spurt accompanied a rising IVI and the bullish spurt beginning on February 8, 2010 accompanied declining volume. At best, this is a non-bullish configuration; at worse, a bearish configuration.

You will notice the #1 on the top of the NASDAQ chart. You may have to scroll down a bit to see it. On July 19, 2007, the NASDAQ pinnacled at 2720. All configurations appeared normal with some added exuberance from the on-going bull market that originated four years earlier in 2003. Three weeks later, on August 16, 2007, the NASDAQ had fallen to 2451 or by 269-points.

In hindsight, all of us wish we had loaded up on QQQQ puts, along with several other shorting instruments on July 19, 2007. Just as some of us were thinking about that, the market turned sharply to the north. By October 31, 2007, the NASDAQ was at 2859 for a solid 408-point gain since the August 16, 2007-mini-bottom. Without noticing the volume behavior, nothing special about the NASDAQ seesawing like this would raise eyebrows. We have all seen it a hundred times before and it will occur a thousand plus times in the future unless, of course, the world turns completely communistic.

However, as most of you know, one should always notice volume. Although it can play tricks on you, there are certain times when it does not lie. Common volume publications are where most of the tricks are. Big money institutions know that tens of thousands of investors monitor volume from major publications and they have the resources to influence volume to trick you. Sometimes, the big institutions trick themselves. That is exactly what occurred just after the #1 on the NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator Chart.

Scott Patterson of the Wall Street Journal published a neat summary on January 22, 2010 about how the Quants nearly destroyed Wall Street. You can read his article by clicking this sentence. Mr. Patterson wrote a book, entitled The Quants. Not knowing how long the Wall Street Journal link will last, some of his commentary is summarized in the next paragraph, using the NASDAQ as a backdrop, which is not referenced in the article, but it is on the IVI charts that you clicked at the beginning of this article.

Around mid-July 2007, Process Driven Trading, a leading quant fund, started losing money and was losing yet more money by early August 2007. Quants use computers and sophisticated math to buy and sell stocks on a daily basis. For several years, this particular Quant fund was a money making machine. On August 3, 2007, the NASDAQ fell by 64-points. The Quants bought long on that day and lost millions, as they had been doing since mid-July 2007. On Monday, August 6, 2007, the NASDAQ rallied by 36-points. The Quants bought short on that day and lost yet more millions, keeping pace with their failing ways since mid-July 2007.

The article goes on, describing how banking executives did not understand the Quants, but benefitted from their profitable behavior. Of course, the bankers were victimized by their massive losses in 2007. Bankers are usually accountants. They mostly deal in one-dimensional data with debits in their left hand drawer and credits in their right hand drawer. They become paranoid when one drawer has more in it than the other drawer.

The Quants use multidimensional data and extremely complex mathematical algorithms far exceeding what an accountant can understand. Even with all that, the one-dimensional folks and the multidimensional folks were big losers for a few short weeks in 2007, wiping out their entire accumulation of profits ever since the invention of Quants.

This relates to the phenomenon of commonality. When all Quants do the same thing, they all lose. They hire the same sort of people, who learned the same sort of math, using similar computers, etc. The phenomenon of commonality must be one of those universal laws where commonization, much like communism, will eventually produce massive losers.

Your tax dollars bailed out the Quants’ mistakes. Do you wish your neighbors would cover your transactional losses in the stock market? That would sure make investing a lot easier, would it not? Of course, such systems would destroy everything that you enjoy. A riskless society will fall prey from the phenomenon of commonality.

Now let’s go back to the IVI charts. Scroll down to the NASDAQ chart. Find #1 on the top of that chart. This all happened pretty quick, so you need to look closely at the chart. You will notice the IVI increased from the mini-peak on July 19, 2007 through the mini-bottom on August 16, 2007. Notice the IVI declined from the August 16, 2007 mini bottom to the last major peak of the NASDAQ on October 31, 2007. Apparently, the Quants did not pick up on this. Day-traders lose money and the Quants are merely day-traders.

Now, look at the far right hand side of the chart. You will notice a diagonal red line sloping south by about 28-degrees on the top of the chart. That shows is that the thoroughbred bull leg that we enjoyed since March 2009 was not accompanied with increasing volume. That is very similar to the bullish legs in the early 1930’s. That is not the salient point, though; just a point of interest. Here is the salient point. Notice the two vertical lines on the very right hand side of the chart. Compare them to the IVI behavior at #1 on the NASDAQ chart. Do you see the similarity?

Well, it is not yet completely similar. The first part is, though. The bearish spurt beginning in late January 2010 was accompanied with a volume surge, just like the volume surge in July-August 2007 that escaped the Quants. The ensuing bullish spurt that drove the NASDAQ to its last major peak in late October 2007 was not supported with increasing volume, suggesting a rally of suspicion.

You will also notice the bullish spurt now underway is associated with declining volume; just like the spurt from August 2007 through October 2007. As Dandy Don Meredith use to sing on Monday Night Football, “turn out the lights, the party is over….” Keep in mind that tune is directed at the 2007 situation and not the current one. The Indicant does not forecast.

The Quick-term Indicant did not signal bear or sell for very many of the ETF’s on that scary bearish spurt in July-August 2007. The Near-term Indicant had not yet been developed in 2007 and it was this situation that prompted its development. The Mid-term Indicant did not signal sell or bear at that time either, as it is not concerned with weekly or even monthly volatility. Some bear/sell signals occurred in late 2007, while most of the sell signals were completed by September 2008. All but one mutual fund was being avoided on or before September 2008.

Now, here is one more point that is even more important than the salient point. If the IVI moves north at any time with the current bullish spurt, rest assured the Short-term Indicant will aggressively signal bull/buy. The Short-term Indicant consists of the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant will offsetting buy/bull/hold and sell/bear/avoid signals. The Quick-term is a bit more patient than the Near-term.

A surge in volume to the point where it moves the IVI, coupled with bullish behavior, will obsolete all prior observations that suggest bearish inclinations. In essence, the increasing volume associated with a bearish spurt would be deemed irrelevant when the opposite is demonstrated. There is no need to forecast; albeit the current configurations are suggesting a bearish outlook.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and five sell signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 210 of the 333-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 27.6%. That annualizes to 36.8%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 210-stocks and funds for an average of 39.1-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 102-stocks and funds of 333- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 36.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 83.6-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Feb 27, 2009, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 23-stocks and funds out of 344 tracked for an average of 93.8-weeks. They were up by an average of 103.1% (annualized at 57.1%). There were 322-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 40.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 38.5-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 145-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Feb 29, 2008. They were up by an average of 198.8% (annualized at 60.8%) since their respective buy signals an average of 170.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 170-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 11.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 16.5-weeks earlier.

There were 314-stocks and funds with hold signals on Feb 23, 2007 since their buy signals an average of 94.0-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 113.7% (annualized at 62.9%). There were 30-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 11.4% from their respective sell signals an average of 21.6-weeks earlier.

On Feb 24, 2006, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 290-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 114.8% (annualized at 64.5%) since their buy signals an average of 94.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 53-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 8.7% since their sell signals an average of 21.5-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Feb 25, 2005, there were 250-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 89.7% (annualized at 64.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of 69.8-weeks earlier. There were 61-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 29.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 53.7-weeks earlier.

On Feb 27, 2004, there were 275-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 70.0%, annualizing at 83.5%, since the buy signals an average of 43.6-weeks earlier. There were 15-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 28.7% since their sell signals an average of 43.9-weeks earlier.

There were 155-stocks and funds with hold signals on Feb 28, 2003. They were up by an average of 21.1%, annualizing at 58.9%, since their buy signals 18.6-weeks earlier. The 127-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 10.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 7.2-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of the bear market. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull.

Access all updated information from the following link. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

The Long-term, Mid-term, and Quick-term attributes have not yet succumbed to the stock market bear’s ambition. The Near-term cycle shifted in support of bearish inclinations in early Feb 2010. The Dow Utilities also shifted in favor of the bear on a Mid-term basis in early Feb 2010.

With the exception of the DJU, most prices and major indices remain solidly above their respective bearish yellow curves. Bear and sell signals will not occur on these slower moving models until price interaction with bearish yellow.

The bull attacked the Near-term Indicant bearish attributes two weeks ago. This prevented additional sell signals by the Mid-term Indicant and has steadied the turbulence of the Near-term Indicant.

There were a few stocks with weakening attributes and underperformance. The Mid-term Indicant had to signal sell for a few more this weekend.

The volume of Mid-term sell signal remains low, suggesting meandering to mild bearishness on the immediate horizon. Short-term Force Vectors are declining, but Vector Pressure moved back into bullish domains. Those two contradictions should stabilize bullish and bearish forces. Unfortunately, stabilization does not mean reduced volatility. Wild swings in both directions can wipe each other out but nestle into a tight range and thus stable.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8%. For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If Green is rising, set stop loss just below it. Green is a bouncing point so a stop loss a percentage below its value could be considered.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, as long as the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 41.7% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 100.9% and the S&P500 is up 42.2% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 96.0% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming.

The NASDAQ is down 55.7% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 27.7% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 11.9% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

As socialism increases, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050. Even that depends on resurgence in entrepreneurialism and related capitalism. Politicians screwed up the economy and the majority apparently believed their proposed fixes in the 2008 congressional and presidential elections. All democracies eventually fail by virtue of tyranny by the stupid majority. We may be witnessing the early stages of that phenomenon, although recent events are suggesting resistance against the lazy brains of the 2006 and 2008 majority.

Politicians are now attempting to impose more constraints on business expansion and thus the continuation of wealth destruction should not be surprising. Politicians have deemed obsolete the normal efficiencies of capitalistic cleansing of the incompetent. That will wear down the capital markets as politicians continue their neurotic desires to expand their influence and controls. Those leeches will eventually kill their host, but like all leeches, they continue on sucking away.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 6.6% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 9.4% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms in mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was down by 2.4%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 1.5% and finished up by 8.6% for that year, which was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 5.1% in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. 2005’s post election year finished up by a mere 1.4%, which was an excellent year based on post election year historical standards of bearishness.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 3.7% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 3.7% at this time in 2007 and finished that year in positive territory by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 11.6% on this weekend in 2008. It finished down by 40.5% in 2008. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

The NASDAQ was down 11.8% at this time last year. It finished 2009 up by 43.9% in extreme contrarian performance to historical standards. Keep in mind, this extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 was still down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. That extraordinary bullishness will be viewed by historians as a mere spurt (reverberation) from 2008’s severe bear market. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The Dow was down 18.2% on this weekend last year but finished 2009 up by 18.1%. Although post election years are generally bearish, the Dow’s gain for 2009 was slightly below the average gain during years with post election bullishness.

The Dow is down 27.1% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 21.7% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is down 24.8% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Most major indices last cyclical bottom occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its weekly bottom on November 20, 2008. The resilience of the recently expired Near-term Bull cycle suggests these cyclical bottoms may not again be tested.

In other words, the next Near-term Bear cycle, which began in early Feb 2010, may not fall below the March 9, 2009 cyclical bottoms. Even with that, statistics supported by 100% accuracy, suggest the Reverse Tangential Projections will occur at some future point. Those projections are above these cyclical bottoms, but well below prevailing prices.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 57.7% since March 9, 2009. The NASDAQ is up 76.4% and the S&P500 is up 63.3% since then. That March 2009-January 2010 bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Mid-term Indicant does not suggest impending bearishness, while the Near-term Indicant remains committed to some bearish influences.

Stock market corrections after such a rise do not need too much of an excuse to meander or even worse. Governments around the world, with the exception of China and possibly Japan, have borrowed too far ahead of real wealth creation. Monetary policies by those “fat governments” will not come from within, but with the harsh reality of their repeated impositions to real wealth creation. There is an upper limit to leech consumption. Reality exerts itself without regard to its harshness or failing attempts by intellectuals, whose “real contribution/worth” will eventually be recognized, as closer to zilch. The problem with leeches is their incessant desire to expand their capacity to do so.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Most of the content in this section remains the same. Until conditions change, verbiage will change very little. The idea here is not entertainment, but retention of facts in spite of its boring repeatability. However, with the change in the Fed’s discount rate in early Feb 2010 there are a few changes.

Although short-term interest rates remain configured at cyclical minimums, the Fed raised the discount rate by twenty-five basis points. The stock market bear was already roaming so there is little correlative evidence this directly stimulated bearish arousal. However, the stock market may have anticipated that, as it usually does. Unfortunately, claims of correlative relationships would be subjective and thus a non-claim.

As stated for several months, rising interest rates would normally threaten the stock market bull. However, they are so low, a prognosis of normalcy borders minutia. In essence, potential rate hikes are irrelevant to the stock market at these levels.

The Fed’s current strategy is to maintain low rates, conflicting with the normalcy of rate hikes during economic recovery. This, coupled with excessive government spending, is a recipe for hyperinflation and/or high interest rates at some future point. That will eventually lead to a bear stock market and high commodity prices, including gold.

Others prognosticate a future with deflation. The combination of prevailing interest rates and the absolute value of inflation/deflation exceeding eight percent produce very aggressive and deep stock market bears. At least that is the history. So, it does not matter which projection is accurate with respect to the stock market. Inflation and/or deflation exceeding the limits of tolerance will induce a stock market bear.

Evolving as a force are monetary policies of foreign governments. Projecting the U.S. Fed’s position is becoming a bit more complicated. These projections must now include China and even more recently, that of Greece.

Some short-term rates have been nudging north the past few weeks. This should be monitored. All major cycles, regardless of subject, begin with subtle movements in their favorable or unfavorable future paths. Sometimes there is nothing to it, but sometimes it is that point where one’s hindsight indicates the optimum point in time where one would have enjoyed taking profit-concluding action.

The Fed can do little for economic stimulation. Interest rates cannot go much lower. If the economy cools even more, the Fed’s contribution to solutions is limited. In essence, the Fed has laid all its cards on the table. Rest assured the Fed will take every opportunity to enhance its position to influence economic activity. In essence, interest rates will be quick to rise when economic recovery is perceived as real. This is one reason why the dollar has been strengthening lately. And the Fed back that up with a hike in the discount rate a few weeks ago.

Oil prices continue vacillating in a range the Saudi Kingdom finds comfortable. As stated for several months, the kingdom continues asserting its leadership and regulating supplies to demands that will result in approximately $80/bbl for a lengthy period. Of course, normal human greed will occur and the result will be military action. Participants remain unknown, but most likely will begin with Israel and Iran, and concluding with the U.S. and Russia and possibly China. Any scenario is bullish for oil prices and bearish for the stock market from a longer-term perspective.

Several weeks ago, commodities began their elevation into the neutral zone from their bullish mini-cycle. Bearish yellow is now in a cyclical shift to the north, supporting a bullish cycle. As earlier stated, a continuation of these configurations will eventually lead to inflation. Although commodity prices have weakened the past few weeks, their underlying Mid-term cyclical trend remains bullish. China’s credit tightening, coupled with expanding socialism in the West, is being viewed as strategically bearish in the long-term for commodities and offering a bit of support to the prognosticators of deflation.

A tremendous amount of paper currency has been added to circulation well ahead of the productive efforts normally required to support those levels. Inflation typically follows that sort of political behavior. Increased socialism will inherently reduce supply of products and services, while paper money in the hands of the incompetent and non-productive will increase demand. At some future point, an I-Pod may cost well over $10,000. Only the “established elite” will enjoy those sort of possessions, while the masses will have to relearn the drumbeats from their primordial past. Once that nonsensicality has passed, deflation will most likely follow.

There is one burgeoning bright spot developing. The Tea Party movement is highlighting the excesses of members of the economic burden/overhead group. Those, who do not add economic wealth, are getting wealthier than those who do. Union labor management does not understand this phenomenon. Most union members in the manufacturing sector also do not understand. They will slowly devolve, as they have been doing for years and many will go to their graves unconscious of the stupidity their union dues supported. More and more will not live the American dream and that is their fault. Politicians will continue catering to those large block of votes, but those large blocks will continue to shrivel.

Educated economic overhead members do understand this phenomenon. They are very smart people. They are simply unproductive and do not add economic wealth. That does not deter them, though, to expand their “taking” capacity. It is always interesting where the breech point occurs. The breech point is where they are slaughtered; either figuratively or physically. Economic wealth production is required in much more magnitude than the capacity to take. Since 2006, there is a gap of concern.

Recently softening gold prices is mere profit taking and a strengthening dollar. The optimistic 2012 forecasted price of gold is holding at $1600. The low cyclical forecast for gold is holding at $1300. The “meandering” forecast is holding steady at $1000. There are no quantifications suggesting a long-term decline in the price of gold in spite of the mysticism guiding its value.

As stated 74-weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods begin displaying its harsh reality on the reduced quality of life, rest assured the bear market will continue and with gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental. You will see that prognosis continuing in spite of the March 2009-January 2010 Bull Leg. (You may be witnessing the beginnings of this tormenting cycle right now). This cycle should endure a double dip.

The heart and soul of bullish seasonality concluded a bit earlier this year. The pessimistic outlook for the market has a good chance to unfold now. Politicians successfully ended the conclusion of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality near the end of January 2010 with the president’s state of the union address.

The above and below paragraph may become obsolete, based on Blue Dog Democrats and a general populace movement against the always damaging singularity in political party voice, upsetting the assumed control of Congress by socialists, communists, and creeps. If the Blue Dogs and populist movement back down and join the evil ones, then the paragraphs remain in tact. The senatorial election in the state of Massachusetts revealed the genius of Thomas Jefferson, while exposing the stupidity of contemporary, soft-handed/slow thinking politicians and their academic brethren. That was bullish at the time and potentially obsoletes bearish commentary contained herein.

The question remains, is public resistance to healthcare reform and other socialistic endeavors really from the grassroots? If so, and if its political influence results in cessation of the rampant stupidity in Washington D.C., the bull will find that too favorable to acquiesce to the bear on the immediate horizon. Although healthcare reform is garnishing most of the attention, cap and trade legislation will depress corporate profits, depress capitalistic adventurism, and thus will eventually depress the stock market.

There was no bear market in 2009. However, previously mentioned threats remain, “if taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gained, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.” The bear was passive between March 2009 and January 2010. It has plenty of time to demonstrate its reflection of a souring culture. The Blue Dogs and grass roots movements against big government have upset this line of thinking and we will know more when Congressional behavior is demonstrated over the next few weeks/months.

As stated the past 26-weeks, on a positive note, it appears enough of the populace are influencing their political representatives to slow the progress of stupidity in spite of recent escapades by the stock market bear. If this happens, then bearish expectations of great magnitude will be muted. A measure of American voter stupidity will conclude in November 2010. The stock market may anticipate reduced stupidity and with that, the current bull market could continue through 2012.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 16, 2009. It is down 3.7% since then, annualizing at -3.7%. It has been bearish in four out of the last six weeks. All commodities, including gold, are under pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is down 2.3% since then, annualizing at -2.3%. It was bearish last week, following three consecutive weeks of bullishness. This particular fund marches to its own drumbeat. Although out-performing Vanguard Gold and Precious metals at this time, it is not as stable as Vanguard.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 8.9%, annualizing at 15.2% since its buy signal on July 31, 2009.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 18, 2009. It is up 1.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 3.1%.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant had to signal sell for this fund on Feb 12, 2010. It is up 0.7% since that sell signal. Although energy is an excellent long-term investment, cap and trade political threats, coupled with the strengthening U.S. dollar may wreak more damage to this fund than previously computed.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 6.5% since its buy signal on Sep 11, 2009, annualizing at 13.9%.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Aug 3, 2009. It is up 9.2% since then, annualizing at 16.0%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for this ETF on Jan 29, 2010. It is up 3.0% since then.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 35.7% since that buy signal, annualizing at 29.1%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It is up 4.8% since that sell signal.

Most commodities were mildly bearish last week and were not contrarian. That is typically bearish unless the economy is solidly robust.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on July 31, 2009 for all ten major indices. Unfortunately, the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear on Feb 12, 2010 for the Dow Utilities. It is up 0.8% since that bear signal.

The nine remaining major indices retaining bull signal are up by an average of 13.1% since there respective bull signals an average of 30.0-weeks ago. That annualizes at 22.7%.

The Dow Utilities was the weakest bull since the July 31, 2009 bull signal. That contrast with it being the strongest bull from 2003 through the peaking in 2007.

Other than the Dow Utilities, the remaining major indices remain with bullish attributes.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $29,665,152. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,570,860 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $143,678. That beats buy and hold’s $108,188 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $203,970. That beats buy and hold’s $77,610 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1787.8%, 32.8%, and 162.8%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. If the market remains bullish during this time, we’ll eat crow. It needs bears to outperform.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 54.2% since then. It will receive a buy signal only if the Quick-term Indicant signals buy for QID. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for QID several days ago, but the Quick-term Indicant cannot signal buy until its price crosses above bearish yellow curve. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 256.7% (annualized at 14.0%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 956-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

The March/April 2009 Near-term Bull expired on Feb 4, 2010 even though most of the ETF’s received sell signals in the prior week. That Near-term Bull was a thoroughbred in terms of its performance. It is still kicking after expiration, but the bear dampened bullish enthusiasm last Tuesday and did so again last Thursday. There was again significant intraday volatility on Friday. These intraday swings have been bearish with late day bullish rallies. All of this has been on relatively mild volume, suggesting a few folks are influencing more so than natural market forces. In the end, though, nature wins.

Convergence sometimes brings on volatility before configuring with vigorous shifts to a sustainable cycle of directional intensity. Significant intraday volatility this past week favored the bear, although closing prices blind many.

Pressure is challenging the bear’s ambition, but that threat should subside in a few days. IF not, the Near-term Indicant will correct its error quickly.

Until contact with the QTI bearish yellow curve, the Near-term Bear, if it indeed manifests, could be a mild one. Severe bearish depth should not be considered until the Quick-term Indicant signals sell/bear. That will not occur until prices interact with bearish yellow curve.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

The lone NTI Bull is the VIX. It is down 17.2% since the Near-term Indicant signaled bull 4.1-weeks ago, annualizing at -17.2%. On contrarian days (E.g., bullish bounces), one should consider VIX calls or broad index put options. You will notice its Force Vector starting to rise. If this does not stimulate VIX bullishness, the stock market bull will be inspired to resume dominance.

VIX endured a 10% price swing on Thursday’s intraday volatility. It was not contrarian as it endured a bearish conclusion along with the stock market. Its Force Vector and price position on NTI Green is a bullish configuration for the VIX and bearish for stock market. As previously stated, convergence is encouraging significant volatility, which is common following the expiration of a thoroughbred Near-term Bull.

In spite of the VIX’s collapsing NTI Blue curve today, it remains bullishly configured. That should inspire the VIX bull to make a loud statement early next week, which suggests overall stock market bearishness.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for eleven major indices. They are up by an average of 3.1% since their bear signals an average of 3.8-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices, including contrarian VIX. They are up by an average of 16.9%, annualizing at 25.7%, since their bull signals an average of 34.2-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves. It has not signaled bear for the VIX, even though qualified by virtue of VIX price less than Yellow. The rising Force Vector, bullishly positioned Vector Pressure, and its nestling behavior on NTI Green is combinatorial bullish for VIX. Its NTI Blue curve collapsing this Friday adds some punch to that claim.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear on Feb 8, 2010 for the Dow Utilities. It fell below bearish yellow. This was the first major index to fall below yellow in nearly a year. It is vacillating now, which is common around bearish yellow.

The DJU is up 0.5% since the QTI signaled bear 2.6-weeks ago. Continuing weakness in Utilities suggests recent bullishness is without required sectored density for sustainability purposes on a Quick-term basis. Conversely, such sectored density remains absent for dynamic bearishness as well. Keep in mind, the Near-term Indicant attributes remain biased in favor of the bear.

As stated the past several days, the overall stock market is configured with increased potential for sustainable bearishness on a near-term horizon. The recent near-term bull was a thoroughbred and continues kicking even though it has expired. Bearish yellow can act as a buffer and if the VIX bull does not dominate, this could evolve into a harmless meandering bear. Volume related attributes suggest otherwise, though.

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

QTI-Red Bull Count; Five non-contrarian; limited bullish support while protecting against dynamic and long lasting bearish behavior.

QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Only seven non-contrarians; down from 10, twelve trading days ago.

QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 10 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

QIT-Yellow Bear Count; One of the non-contrarian’s is now inflicted with this attribute; the DJU. Bearish bias on the slower moving QTI is still lacking a thorough enough commitment to feed the bear’s hunger. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

NTI-Blue Bull Count; Ten non-contrarian; configured as a bullish spurt in face of Near-term bear. However, this is threatening to bearish ambition on a near-term basis.

NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Ten non-contrarian; increasing bullish support, but remains configured as a bullish spurt in the face of a Near-term bear.

NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Zero non-contrarian; positive bearish support; definitely non-bullish.

As you can see, the Near-term attributes are suggesting conflicting bias, but overall, the bear has an edge.

Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

STI-Force Vector Position; Two in bullish domain; decreasing bullish support. New bearish cycle is now underway. Some started their descent the past few days; more joined bearish direction on Thursday. At best, this is a non-bullish configuration, and their lack of sharpness in the early stages of declining is a bit alarming to the near-term bear.

STI-Vector Pressure Trend; None of the non-contrarians are moving bullishly, but lending to non-bearishness due to increasing maturity of the cycle.

STI-Vector Pressure Position; Most major indices are enduring negative (bearish) pressure. The mid-caps and small-caps lost positive bullish pressure on Feb 11, 2010. The S&P400 re-developed positive pressure last Friday, introducing a serious challenge to the bear. The S&P600, NASDAQ, and NAS100 index did the same last Monday. As stated last Monday, configurations suggested the bear should be offended. The bear responded loudly last Tuesday and during most of the day last Thursday. As previously stated, do not be surprised at increased volatility and side your decisions with the bear.

Short-term Market Summary

The Near-term Indicant is bearishly biased while the Quick-term Indicant offers potential resistance to the bear. Some of that resistance was lost with the Dow Utilities succumbing to bearish influences on Jan 29, 2010. However, there remains some potential resistance to bearish ambition with only one Yellow Bear. The Near-term bear signals are taking it on the chin by the bullish spurt, but remain committed to signaling bear.

-Tangential Protection – There are none. The last three evaporated on Thursday, Feb 4, 2010. This has facilitated more freedom for the bear to roam.

-Political Climate – Increasing discourse between the two Congressional parties and the executive branch of the U.S. Government is strategically bullish. The president met with congressional republicans last Thursday. So far it appears that accomplished little; that is bullish. Large legislative volumes is typically bearish, unless they rewrite the tax code to a flat tax rate, say 10%. It will be bearish if political cronyism style backslapping ensues. If they continue bickering with little accomplished, the long-term view should be bullish. A new political influence is burgeoning in China, though, where one party remains dominant, which is generally bearish. Also, the fundamental gap between wealth creation and socialistic causes should prompt the bear to display its glory before this year completes.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection - The March/April 2009 Near-term Bull expired Feb 4, 2010, giving birth to a new Near-term Bear. This suggests a focus on this tangential phenomenon. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. Keep in mind, this may not occur on the current stock market near-term bear cycle, but there is some future point where the major indices and noted ETF’s will be below those noted values.

The Quick-term bearish yellow curve stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness on this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this phenomenon a few days ago. Recent bullish bounces did nothing to challenge this theme.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010). Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the Mid-term bull will continue dominance. That dominance is now being challenged by the Near-term bear, but has not yet cascaded into a complete Short-term bear market.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Indicant Volume Indicators

The NYSE and NASDAQ indicators configured with robustness during previous bearish aggression, supporting the near-term bear cycle. Lethargy configured with the recent bullish spurt. That is non-bullish and a common attribute associated with bullish spurts in the face of the underlying bearish cycle. Overall, volume supports bearish bias. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

Feb 26, 2010-Fri-Light volume and meandering stock market behavior suggests bias is unchanged and thus supportive of a near-term bear cycle.

Feb 25, 2010-Thu-Intraday behavior interesting; it always is, but absent of correlative conclusion. Configurations remain supportive of bear.

Feb 24, 2010-Wed-Volume non-descript, but cyclical configurations continue with support of the bear.

Feb 23, 2010-Tue-Volume added to its support of bearish bias on today’s aggressive behavior by the bear.

Feb 22, 2010-Mon-Volume remains non-descriptive on mild bearish behavior and thus no new volume bias.

Feb 19, 2010-Fri-Volume was again non-descriptive on potential shifts in bias. Therefore, near-term bearish bias continues.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for five ETF’s, including contrarian QID and TLT. They are up by an average of 8.9%, annualizing at 24.3%, since their buy signals an average of 19.1-weeks ago.

The NTI is avoiding 26-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 3.6% since their sell signals an average of 3.7-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 24.8% since their buy signals an average of 37.2-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 34.7%.

The lone avoided ETF, QID, is down 57.0% since its sell signal 48.1-weeks ago.

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bulls Count; there are twenty-two; improving bullish support, but temporary.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 30-contrarians are sloping north; improved, but temporary, bullish support.

NTI Green Curve Trend; Only one sloping north with complete non-bullish support. This is encouraging domination by the short-term stock market bear. The embattled bear remains with substantial ambition.

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; Fourteen non-contrarian, limited bullish support, but protective against dynamic bearish expressions.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; majority of 17-sloping north in support of Quick-term Bull, but under bear threat due to the declining population of Red Bulls. Lost several the past few days.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

Vector Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; a majority of twenty-one non-contrarians in bullish domains. This is now threatening the bear. Many have now endured bearish convergence and now attempting bullish convergence. Current configurations suggest this recently converged behavior will be inspirational to the bear. Recent bullish resistance will eventually exhaust itself from the inevitable, but this turbulence is adding to volatile behavior.

Pressure Slope Relative to Vector Pressure: 19-non-contrarian in bullish position, threatening the bear.

Vector Pressure Trend; thirty with limited bearish support at this time, but configured as a temporary condition.

Short-term Summary: Volume continues suggesting support for the bear and limited substantive support for the bull. Vacillating volume should contribute to volatility, as some directional pressure has shifted back into support of the bull. The NTI-Bearish Green Curve is sloping to the south, which is bearish, and more influential at this point than the indecisive Vector Pressure. In essence, this remains configured as a bullish spurt in the face of a near-term bear. Vector Pressure is directionally supporting the bear, but a few are holding in bullish domains and thus preventing some sell signals. Fundamentals are setting up to support bear and technical configurations are acquiescing to those fundamental demands.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 3.0% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 29, 2010. The Quick-term Indicant continues signaling hold. It is up 9.2% since the buy signal on August 3, 2009, annualizing at 16.0%. The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 35.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.1%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $98.58 and still rising.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Feb 4, 2010. It is up 4.8% since then. Negative pressure is preventing a new buy signal. GLD’s bearish attributes are weakening, suggesting any added bearish pressure will be mild.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs. A strengthening dollar is somewhat of an evolving threat to gold, but again, continue holding until the price interacts with the bearish yellow curve.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant on Feb 8, 2010. It is down 0.5% since then. Last Monday’s anticipated sell signal was deferred, pending the execution of the then anticipated VIX bullish bounce. TLT enjoyed a bullish bounce along with the VIX last Tuesday. Both conformed to contrarian expectations and standards this past Tuesday.

TLT, though, remains precariously close to receiving a sell signal. Its pressure is drifting to the south inside bearish domains. Its contrarian nature is a partial justification for the continuing hold signal.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#31-QID on Feb 4, 2010. It is down 9.7% since that buy signal. It’s NTI Green is now moving to the north. Pressure has fallen into bearish domains, threatening the viability of this hold signal. If NTI shifts back to the south, there will be a humbling sell signal. These conflicts should be clarified in the next few days.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 57.0% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $24.94 and still falling.

Major ETF Events

Feb 26, 2010-Fri-VIX NTI Bullish Blue curve collapsed today. This did not disrupt its rising NTI Green curve. Its Pressure remains in bullish domains. Collapsed blue with positive pressure typically invokes a bullish bounce. There will be one, but if not dynamic, the VIX bull signal will be reversed to bear.

Feb 25, 2010-Thu-Significant intraday volatility should not be surprising. Convergence patterns are attempting to redeploy in support of the bull absent of fundamental reasons to do so.

Feb 24, 2010-Wed-TLT is anemic, but held minor bullish support without contrarian behavior. It moved north on stock market bullishness, but its anemia maybe too severe for the Treasury bull to overcome.

Feb 23, 2010-Tue-VIX and TLT performed beautifully with today’s stock market bear. They conformed to expectations and contrarian standards on bearish aggression.

Feb 22, 2010-Mon-Vector Pressure shifted back into bullish domains for several ETF’s and major indices. However, many still remain in bearish domains. Underlying turbulence is common during convergence patterns. Limited volatility is surprising.

Feb 19, 2010-Fri-S&P400 pressure crossed back into bullish domains, challenging the Near-term Indicant’s bearish bias theme. Options expiration week, as expected, punished those that shorted the market.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 26, 2010-Fri-Although the Near-term Bear has been puny, there is little support for significant bullishness. This bear could meander for a period. Volume relationships seldom lie and so far, volume remains steadfast it support of the Near-term Bear signal. At best, the market can meander. There is little support for it to resume bullishness at this time. Feb 25, 2010-Thu-There is no change; expect additional volatility before the prior bull’s residue is completely extinguished. Feb 24, 2010-Wed-There is no change. Feb 22, 2010-Mon-The bull and bear continue to battle. The bear has a near-term edge, but thoroughbred bulls, like the last one, continue kicking after expiration. That bull’s offspring could be looming, but so far, the bear has tired of dormancy.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market endured bearish convergence last week, albeit mild. That follows two consecutive weeks of bullish convergence. Bearish convergence was endured for four consecutive weeks ending three weeks ago. Bearish convergence of four consecutive weeks is strategically bearish. It, however, has not upset the Mid-term Indicant bullish attributes, but certainly threatening.

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past twenty weeks, low interest rates offer narrowed alternative investment opportunities. The expiration of the Near-term Bull suggests this is increasingly an irrelevant observation, relative to more worldly dynamics, which appear to be leaning in favor of the bear.

There is a strategic view unfolding that China may tighten credit too much. Some logic suggests that large caps may leave China. That leads to a heightened concern regarding interest rates and/or deflation or inflation. This also could lead to reduced revenue volumes for larger cap companies and other business interest in China.

Trade tensions can mount. Such behavior will invoke a repeat of the 1930’s. Any legislation or behavior leading to restrictions on free trade will unleash a bear that will make the 1930’s bear be like a teddy bear.

The stock market bull enjoyed additive magnitude with the additional number of capitalists in China. Chinese government leaders consist of the exact same psychological profile as any other politicians, where control freak, egotistical self-aggrandizement, and lying are common attributes. Forces far away from Washington D.C. can shake the world’s economy. The small country of Greece is a new threat.

The expected convergence occurred three weeks ago. The Near-term Bull signaled bear and sell for most of the ETF’s that are tracked daily. But it has not yet signaled sell for all of the daily tracked ETF’s. This suggests some possibilities, the Near-term Indicant may have been premature in the sell/bear signals. In other words, the bear has not yet garnished unanimous support for its ambition. However, the near-term attributes continue in their support of the bear. The market can be more volatile during periods of convergence. The bullish bounce in the two-week period prior to last week remains configured as a bullish spurt in the face of a near-term bear.

The Quick-term Indicant has yet to signal bear with the exception of the Dow Utilities. It will be interesting to observe how the markets and ETF’s interact with Bearish Yellow when and if contact is made in the next few weeks. The Dow Utilities made contact with bearish yellow and bounced bullishly off of it, but not enough to signal bull again.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

02/28/2010

Feb 21, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

The Economic Splatter Effect

As expected, those who shorted the stock market during options expiration were punished last week. The bull expressed significant dominance this past week, contrary to expectations of flat behavior.

The bull’s dominance last week was a bit unusual for options expiration week. Recent behavior has demonstrated more flatness during options expiration week. In the weeks leading up to last week, VIX call options were unusually high. Wall Street needs to make money somehow and apparently the losses incurred by short trading to February expirations and VIX buying accomplished that end.

In other words, last week’s bullishness should be viewed with some suspicion. If Near-term Vector Pressure shifts back into bullish domains, then strike out the previous sentence. Last week’s bullish behavior could entice more money into the market and through the laws of supply and demand, more short-term bullishness could be enjoyed.

The Mid-term continues signaling bull for the major indices with the exception of the pitifully performing Dow Utilities. The Quick-term Indicant, using more technical metrics, also continues to signal hold for many of the ETF’s, tracked daily. The Mid-term and Quick-term models are slower moving and do not nervously react to stock market volatility. There is occasional fluttering around certain attributes. This occurs when the bull and bear are engaging in significant battles for dominance. That fluttering has not yet begun, but the past six weeks suggests an increasing probability of this sort of behavior.

The Near-term Indicant continues to signal avoid for most of the ETF’s. That is not unanimous, though, as a few “retail sector” ETF’s are continuing to enjoy hold signals. For example, ETF#27-XLP is up 26.8% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 2, 2009. ETF#29-XLY is up 20.6% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on July 30, 2009. XLY endured one of those early July sell signals and quickly followed with a buy signal. It enjoyed double-digit gains, though from its April 2009 buy signal until the July 2009 sell signal, though.

The current Mid-term Bull, although remaining in tact, contains a basic element of suspicion regarding its potential longevity. It lacks sector breadth. Long lasting bull legs, spanning years, do not discriminate against poorly run corporations. Poorly managed corporations typically enjoy increases in their stock prices during the early stages of bullish formation. A common attribute among these long lasting bull legs is the bullish aggression by corporations with weakness in earnings.

The emotional part of stock market investing includes a mantra that even companies enduring weakness in earnings will gain in earnings through the dribble down and spread around effects of economic expansion. This may be referred to as economic splatter. Robust economies tend to expand to a point where capacity becomes limiting to corporate growth. While the more successful companies expand their capacity, the weaker companies gain some market share and earnings during ahead of this expansion. The better-managed corporations toy with their weaker competitors; even to the extent of helping the weaklings subsist.

For example, in 2005, Toyota raised prices to help General Motors. In effect, Toyota promulgated a strategic move to prevent GM from bankruptcy five years ago. The idea was to reduce Toyota’s market share gains with the hope that GM could gain share from Toyota’s price increase.

Now that the U.S. government owns GM, one can speculate what it costs taxpayers to pay off a U.S. brake supplier to generate inferior quality on Toyota products. Some politicians maintain a close alliance to the UAW and other unions. It would not take much effort to make a few adjustments to tools and processes to produce faulty brakes. Some offer very compelling arguments that Toyota is now a victim of a significant conspiracy. In essence, economic splattering may be occurring by design, as opposed to a more natural force.

Another compelling argument that has been demonstrated for centuries. Founder’s grandchildren typically screw up the enterprise they inherited. The contemporary Mr. Toyoda and his pals may indeed be one of those who had too much silver spooning of his pablum. More investigation is needed to decipher which argument is the accurate one; maybe both.

Economic robustness is not occurring at this time. Therefore, bullish breadth is not correlating well, relative to the current Mid-term Bull versus that of long lasting bull legs. For example, Alcoa has been a pitiful participant in this bull leg. This blue chip and Dow30 constituent continues enduring shy revenue volume, prohibiting its needs to generate bullishly desired earnings. High fixed cost companies, such as Alcoa, need high revenues to make money.

Integrated Device Technologies, I-STK #79, is a constituent in the solidly bullish technology sector. However, the spattering effect of economic expansion and robustness has not helped this company generated bullish earnings.

The once dominant Motorola endures a similar configuration of disappointment. This dilettante infested company is more interested in Six Sigma processes than elevating earnings. However, as bad as Motorola is, it would enjoy the splattering effect of increased earnings with real economic robustness.

To view charts of the above three examples of pitiful bullish participation, click this sentence.

As stated many times before, politicians provided the initial germs of The Great Recession. After generating grave damage to the economy, they disallowed the normal cleansing of incompetence and inefficiencies that good old fashion recessions are good at doing. Capitalistic economies have always endured recessions. Those recessions weeded out the fat, lazy, stupid, and immoral. Once those recessions concluded, the quality of life returned to what it was before and then accentuated yet a higher standard of living for most. Unfortunately, the fat, lazy, stupid, and immoral are still alive and well thanks to your tax dollars. Economic penalties the next time around will be heavier than the first exposures in late 2008 and early 2009.

For example, the U.S. bailed out Chrysler in the late 1970’s. Their incompetence was allowed to persist. They bred more like them. The next generation is now without a job. Michigan and Ohio unemployment rates are very high. In essence, the pain this time will be longer lasting and with more depth than what would have occurred with allowing Chrysler to fail in 1979.

Economic robustness is not occurring now. Play money is floating around. Spattering the economy with play money will eventually run dry. Until real economic wealth is created, earnings will not spread. Weaker corporations will not enjoy the economic splattering effect. This cascades throughout the economy and eventually earnings outlooks will diminish and bearishness will follow.

Although the Mid-term Bull remains in tact, it is configured with a shortage of desired breadth for bullish longevity. Unless the economy expands much more vigorously than its current rate, the current Mid-term Bull will be replaced by a new bear market. The Chinese Finance minister may have more influence on that in a few years than the Federal Reserve Board.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 215 of the 333-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 25.9%. That annualizes to 38.4%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 215-stocks and funds for an average of 37.4-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 102-stocks and funds of 333- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 25.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 82.6-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Feb 20, 2009, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 22-stocks and funds out of 344 tracked for an average of 93.0-weeks. They were up by an average of 105.6% (annualized at 59.0%). There were 322-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 39.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 37.7-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 148-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Feb 22, 2008. They were up by an average of 183.5% (annualized at 59.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 161.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 189-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 11.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 16.0-weeks earlier.

There were 311-stocks and funds with hold signals on Feb 16, 2007 since their buy signals an average of 93.5-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 114.0% (annualized at 63.4%). There were 30-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 11.6% from their respective sell signals an average of 20.8-weeks earlier.

On Feb 17, 2006, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 285-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 115.9% (annualized at 65.2%) since their buy signals an average of 92.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 53-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 9.2% since their sell signals an average of 20.5-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Feb 18, 2005, there were 256-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 86.2% (annualized at 65.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of 68.6-weeks earlier. There were 61-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 29.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 52.9-weeks earlier.

On Feb 20, 2004, there were 281-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 65.3%, annualizing at 82.6%, since the buy signals an average of 42.7-weeks earlier. There were 15-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 27.9% since their sell signals an average of 42.7-weeks earlier.

There were 110-stocks and funds with hold signals on Feb 21, 2003. They were up by an average of 28.3%, annualizing at 54.9%, since their buy signals 26.8-weeks earlier. The 130-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 9.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 6.2-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

Access all updated information from the following link. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

The Long-term, Mid-term, and Quick-term attributes have not yet succumbed to the stock market bear’s ambition. The Near-term cycle shifted in support of bearish inclinations in early Feb 2010.

Most prices and major indices remain solidly above their respective bearish yellow curves. Bear and sell signals will not occur on these slower moving models until price interaction with bearish yellow.

The bull attacked the Near-term Indicant bearish attributes this past week. This prevented additional sell signals by the Mid-term Indicant.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses.

Currently, the Near-term blue and green prices are falling due to the Near-term bear. Most ETF prices are below those two values. The Mid-term blue and green prices are mixed. If falling, the shorter-term trader (or recent buys) should sell, if already not done so. The longer-term holdings with high double digit or any triple digit gains should use MTI Bearish yellow as a stop loss.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 42.8% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 101.4% and the S&P500 is up 42.5% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 96.6% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming.

The NASDAQ is down 55.6% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 27.4% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 11.3% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 1.8% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 10.2% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms in mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was down by 0.1%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 2.1% and finished up by 8.6% for that year, which was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 5.4% in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. 2005’s post election year finished up by a mere 1.4%, which was an excellent year based on post election year historical standards of bearishness.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 3.5% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 3.4% at this time in 2007 and finished that year in positive territory by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 13.0% on this weekend in 2008. It finished down by 40.5% in 2008. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

The NASDAQ was down 8.5% at this time last year. It finished 2009 up by 43.9% in extreme contrarian performance to historical standards. The Dow was down 14.9% on this weekend last year but finished 2009 up by 18.1%. Although post election years are generally bearish, the Dow’s gain for 2009 was slightly below the average gain during years with post election bullishness.

The Dow is down 26.6% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 21.5% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is down 24.6% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

The Dow is up 58.9% since March 9, 2009. The NASDAQ is up 76.9% and the S&P500 is up 63.9% since then. That March 2009-January 2010 bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth.

Stock market corrections after such a rise do not need too much of an excuse. Governments around the world, with the exception of China and possibly Japan, have borrowed too far ahead of real wealth creation. Monetary policies by those “fat governments” will not come from within, but with the harsh reality of their repeated impositions to real wealth creation. There is an upper limit to leech consumption. Reality exerts itself without regard to its harshness or failing attempts by intellectuals, whose “real contribution/worth” will eventually be recognized as closer to zilch.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Most of the content in this section remains the same. Until conditions change, the verbiage will change very little. The idea here is not entertainment, but retention of facts in spite of its boring repeatability.

Evolving as a force are monetary policies of foreign governments. Projecting the U.S. Fed’s position is becoming a bit more complicated. These projections must now include China.

Oil prices continue vacillating in a range the Saudi Kingdom finds comfortable. As stated for several months, the kingdom will assert its leadership and regulate supplies to demands that will result in approximately $80/bbl for a lengthy period. Of course, normal human greed will occur and the result will be military action. Participants remain unknown, but most likely will begin with Israel and Iran, and concluding with the U.S. and Russia and possibly China. Any scenario is bullish for oil prices and bearish for the stock market from a longer-term perspective.

Several weeks ago, commodities began their elevation into the neutral zone from their bullish mini-cycle. Bearish yellow is now in a cyclical shift to the north, supporting a bullish cycle. As earlier stated, a continuation of these configurations will eventually lead to inflation. Although commodity prices have weakened the past few weeks, their underlying trend remains bullish. China’s credit tightening, coupled with expanding socialism in the West, is being viewed as strategically bearish in the long-term.

A tremendous amount of paper currency has been added to circulation well ahead of the productive efforts normally required to support those levels. Inflation has to follow at some future point. Increased socialism will inherently reduce supply of products and services, while paper money in the hands of the incompetent and non-productive will increase demand. At some future point, an I-Pod may cost well over $10,000. Only the “established elite” will enjoy those sort of possessions, while the masses will have to relearn the drumbeats from their primordial past. Once that nonsensicality has passed, deflation will most likely follow.

There is one burgeoning bright spot developing. The Tea Party movement is highlighting the excesses of members of the economic burden/overhead group. Those, who do not add economic wealth, are getting wealthier than those who do. Union labor management does not understand this phenomena. Most union members in the manufacturing sector also do not understand. They will slowly devolve, as they have been doing for years and many will go to their graves unconscious of the stupidity their union dues supported. More and more will not live the American dream and that is their fault.

Economic overhead members do understand. They are very smart people. They are simply unproductive and do not add economic wealth. That does not deter them, though, to expand their “taking” capacity. It is always interesting where the breech point occurs. The breech point is where they are slaughtered; either figuratively or physically. Economic wealth production is required in much more magnitude than the capacity to take. Since 2006, there is a gap of concern.

As stated 73-weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods begin displaying its harsh reality on the reduced quality of life, rest assured the bear market will continue and with gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental. You will see that prognosis continuing in spite of the March 2009-January 2010 Bull Leg. (You may be witnessing the beginnings of this tormenting cycle right now). This cycle should endure a double dip.

As stated the past 25-weeks, on a positive note, it appears enough of the populace are influencing their political representatives to slow the progress of stupidity in spite of recent escapades by the stock market bear. If this happens, then bearish expectations of great magnitude will be muted. A measure of American voter stupidity will conclude in November 2010. The stock market may anticipate reduced stupidity and with that, the current bull market could continue through 2012.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 16, 2009. It is down 1.5% since then, annualizing at -1.5%. It was bullish the last two weeks following bearishness in the previous three weeks. All commodities, including gold, are under pressure from the U.S. dollar.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is down 0.8% since then, annualizing at -0.8%. It was bullish the past three weeks. This particular fund marches to its own drumbeat. Although out-performing Vanguard Gold and Precious metals at this time, it is not as stable as Vanguard.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 11.3%, annualizing at 20.1% since its buy signal on July 31, 2009.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant had to signal sell for this fund on Feb 12, 2010. It is up 3.8% since that sell signal. Although energy is an excellent long-term investment, cap and trade political threats, coupled with the strengthening U.S. dollar may wreak more damage to this fund than previously computed.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 9.5% since its buy signal on Sep 11, 2009, annualizing at 21.2%.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Aug 3, 2009. It is up 11.6% since then, annualizing at 20.5%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for this ETF on Jan 29, 2010. It is up 5.2% since then.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 35.7% since that buy signal, annualizing at 29.4%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It is up 4.9% since that sell signal.

Most commodities were mildly bullish last week and were not contrarian. That is typically bearish unless the economy is solidly robust.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and one new bear signal.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on July 31, 2009 for all ten major indices. Unfortunately, the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear on Feb 12, 2010 for the Dow Utilities. It is up 3.4% since that bear signal.

The nine remaining major indices retaining bull signal are up by an average of 13.3% since there respective bull signals an average of 29.0-weeks ago. That annualizes at 23.8%.

The Dow Utilities was the weakest bull since the July 31, 2009 bull signal. That contrast with it being the strongest bull from 2003 through the peaking in 2007.

Other than the Dow Utilities, the remaining major indices remain with bullish attributes.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $29,876,592. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,582,588 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $144,287. That beats buy and hold’s $108,646 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $204,481. That beats buy and hold’s $77,804 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1787.8%, 32.8%, and 162.8%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 54.3% since then. It will receive a buy signal only if the Quick-term Indicant signals buy for QID. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for QID several days ago, but the Quick-term Indicant cannot signal buy until its price crosses above bearish yellow curve. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 259.4% (annualized at 14.1%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 955-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

The March/April 2009 Near-term Bull expired on Feb 4, 2010 even though most of the ETF’s received sell signals in the prior week. That Near-term Bull was a thoroughbred in terms of its performance. The average Near-term cycle durations range from eight to twelve weeks. This one extended for approximately ten months, whose breadth approximated the Mar 2003 bull leg. However, the March 2003 bull was supported with volume, which fueled follow-on bull legs, lasting until 2007. The more recent one did not have volume support, suggesting the stock market’s vulnerability to bearish ambition remains in effect.

The 2003 bull leg met a meandering bear that lasted through all of 2004 and most of 2005. Contemporary and projected fundamentals, as opposed to those in 2003, are more supportive of a more ambitious bear in 2010 than endured in 2004 and 2005.

Bullish behavior the past several days remains configured as a bullish spurt in the face of a Near-term Bear. If pressure rises again into bullish domains, then a new Near-term Bull could emerge. Probabilities, however, remain high for bearish bias to resume on a Near-term horizon.

As stated in the last weekly report, the market indeed punished those who shorted the market during options expiration this past week. Next week, the market will most likely follow and more rationally path, which is bearish. If more pressure increases into bullish domains, then a new Near-term Bear could evolve, even though probabilities are suggesting otherwise.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

The lone NTI Bull is the VIX. It is down 15.7% since the Near-term Indicant signaled bull 3.1-weeks ago, annualizing at -15.7%.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for eleven major indices. They are up by an average of 3.5% since their bear signals an average of 2.8-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices, including contrarian VIX. They are up by an average of 17.2%, annualizing at 26.9%, since their bull signals an average of 33.0-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.

The DJU is up 3.1% since the QTI signaled bear 1.6-weeks ago. Continuing weakness in Utilities suggests recent bullishness is without required sectored density for sustainability purposes.

As stated the past several days, the overall stock market is configured with increased potential for sustainable bearishness on a near-term horizon.

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

QTI-Red Bull Count; Five non-contrarian; limited bullish support and some protections against dynamic bearish behavior.

QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Only five non-contrarians; down from 11, eight trading days ago.

QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 10 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle.

QIT-Yellow Bear Count; One of the non-contrarian’s was inflicted with this attribute the past few days; the DJU. Bearish bias on the slower moving QTI is still lacking a thorough enough commitment to feed the bear’s hunger. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

NTI-Blue Bull Count; Eleven non-contrarian; configured as a bullish spurt in face of Near-term bear.

NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Eleven non-contrarian; increasing bullish support.

NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Zero non-contrarian; positive bearish support.

Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

STI-Force Vector Position; Eleven in bullish domain; increasing bullish support.

STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Eleven moving bullishly, but lending to non-bearishness due to increasing maturity of the cycle.

Short-term Market Summary

The Near-term Indicant is bearishly biased while the Quick-term Indicant offers potential resistance to the bear. Some of that resistance was lost with the Dow Utilities recently succumbing to bearish influences. However, there remains some potential resistance to bearish ambition with only one Yellow Bear.

-Tangential Protection – There are none. The last three evaporated on Thursday, Feb 4, 2010. This has facilitated more freedom for the bear to roam.

-Political Climate – Increasing discourse between the two Congressional parties and the executive branch of the U.S. Government is strategically bullish. If they continue bickering with little accomplished, the long-term view should be bullish. A new political influence is burgeoning in China, though, where one party remains dominant, which is generally bearish.

The Quick-term bearish yellow curve stands between the above claim and prevailing prices. If prices fall below this bearish yellow curve, the probability of tangential bearishness on this cycle will be high. The Dow Utilities moved toward supporting this phenomenon a few days ago. Today’s bullish bounce did nothing to challenge this theme.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Indicant Volume Indicators

The NYSE and NASDAQ indicators are configuring with robustness, which supports the near-term bear cycle. However, increasingly light volume may stimulate lethargy. This can influence meandering behavior, while the overall cycle remains in favor of the bear. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

Feb 19, 2010-Fri-Volume was again non-descriptive on potential shifts in bias. Therefore, near-term bearish bias continues.

Feb 18, 2010-Thu-Volume was down slightly on mild bullishness. There is no change from previous comments. Bearish bias prevails.

Feb 17, 2010-Wed-Volume was down on today’s mild bullish behavior, which remains non-supportive of bullish sustainability along the near-term cycle.

Feb 16, 2010-Tue-Volume was relatively mild on bullish aggression, suggesting limited follow-on behavior by the bull along the near-term cycle.

Feb 12, 2010-Fri-Significant intraday volatility did not upset the recent pattern of lackluster volume. This suggest little interest and/or ability to overturn the current stock market bias, which is bearish.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for five ETF’s, including contrarian QID. They are up by an average of 8.2%, annualizing at 23.7%, since their buy signals an average of 18.1-weeks ago.

The NTI is avoiding 26-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 4.1% since their sell signals an average of 2.7-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 25.3% since their buy signals an average of 36.2-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 36.3%.

The lone avoided ETF, QID, is down 57.0% since its sell signal 47.1-weeks ago.

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bulls Count; there are twenty-seven, which is appears to be a boomerang increase; potential bullish support, but higher probability suggests bearish aggression looms.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 29-contrarians are sloping north; improved, but temporary, bullish support.

NTI Green Curve Trend; Two sloping north with declining bullish support. This is encouraging domination by the short-term stock market bear.

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; Seventeen non-contrarian, limited bullish support.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; minority of 15-sloping north in support for Quick-term Bull, but under bear threat due to the declining population of Red Bulls. Lost several in last few days.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

Vector Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; a minority of fifteen non-contrarians in bullish domains, offering decreasing support for the bull. Many have now endured bearish convergence. Current configurations suggest this recently converged behavior will be inspirational to the bear.

Pressure Slope Relative to Vector Pressure: 12-non-contrarian in bullish position and leaning toward support of the stock market bear.

Vector Pressure Trend; twenty-eight with limited bearish support at this time, but configured as a temporary condition.

Short-term Summary: Volume continues suggesting support for the bear and limited substantive support for the bull. The NTI-Bearish Green Curve is sloping to the south, which is bearish. Several bounced above green about one week ago with similar momentum the past three days, but this is analogized to the boomerang effect. In essence, this is a bullish spurt in the face of a near-term bear. Vector Pressure is directionally supporting the bear, but a few are holding in bullish domains and thus preventing some sell signals. Fundamentals are setting up to support bear and technical configurations are acquiescing to those fundamental demands.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 5.2% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 29, 2010. The Quick-term Indicant continues signaling hold. It is up 11.6% since the buy signal on August 3, 2009, annualizing at 20.8%. The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 35.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $98.30 and still rising.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Feb 4, 2010. It is up 4.9% since then. Negative pressure is preventing a new buy signal.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

Fundamentally, gold, like most commodities, is under pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar.

Also gold has been aggressively advertised the past several months. This invites more participants in owning gold. Such behavior typically invites short-term bearishness.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant on Feb 8, 2010. It is down 2.9% since then. It will receive a sell signal on next Monday if there is no solid bullish bounce on that day. Pressure never crossed into bullish domains and it is starting to move negatively, which increases potential for sell signal in the next day or two.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#31-QID on Feb 4, 2010. It is down 9.8% since that buy signal. It’s NTI Green is starting to rise. Pressure remains in bullish domains, but barely. If pressure drops back into bearish domains, a sell signal will ensue.

Major ETF Events

Feb 18, 2010-Thu-No major events.

Feb 17, 2010-Wed-TLT’s NTI bullish blue curve collapsed today. Pressure suggests a bullish response to this.

Feb 16, 2010-Tue-Today’s bullish behavior is a bullish spurt in the face of a Near-term Bear. TLT was not contrarian today as it was bullish along with the stock market. That suggests it will be even more bullish on bearish stock market behavior.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 18, 2010-Thu-Same, but the rising bullish pressure by the S&P400 Index challenges the Near-term Indicant bearish theme. Feb 17, 2010-Wed-Same. Feb 16, 2010-Tue-Same as last Friday. Feb 12, 2010-Fri-Negative pressure, coupled with declining NTI Blue and Green offers little hope for a new NTI bull signal. Bias remains in favor of the bear, but the QTI Bearish Yellow Curve offers resistance to any dynamic behavior that may unfold.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed bullish convergence last week. That is the second consecutive week of bullish convergence. Unfortunately, that follows bearish convergence in the preceding four weeks. That bearish convergence of four consecutive weeks is overriding and thus remaining as an extremely bearish attribute. It, however, has not upset the Mid-term Indicant bullish attributes, but certainly threatening.

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past nineteen weeks, low interest rates offer narrowed alternative investment opportunities. The expiration of the Near-term Bull suggests this is increasingly an irrelevant observation, relative to more worldly dynamics, which appear to be leaning in favor of the bear.

There is a strategic view unfolding that China may tighten credit too much. Some logic suggests that large caps may leave China. That leads to a heightened concern regarding interest rates and/or inflation. This also could lead to reduced revenue volumes for larger cap companies and other business interest in China.

The expected convergence occurred two weeks ago. The Near-term Bull signaled bear and sell for most of the ETF’s that are tracked daily. But it has not yet signaled sell for all of the daily tracked ETF’s. This suggests some possibilities, the Near-term Indicant may have been premature in the sell/bear signals. In other words, the bear has not yet garnished unanimous support for its ambition. However, the near-term attributes continue in their support of the bear. The market can be more volatile during periods of convergence. The bullish bounce the last two weeks remains configured as a bullish spurt in the face of a near-term bear.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

02/21/2010

Feb 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

This Week’s Report

Comments about Last Week’s Bullishness and This Coming Week

Most of the ETF’s and major indices tracked by the Short-term Indicant crossed above their respective Near-term Bullish Blue curves with last week’s bullishness. That configuration can invoke a solid response from the bear when the Near-term Green curve is declining, which is the current situation. That configuration is also one that exists when a new sustainable bull cycle is about to emerge.

The current configuration occurred in May 2009 and again in July 2009. Some of you recall that triggered a few sell signals by the Near-term Indicant. Shortly after the May 2009 sell signals, the bull resumed control of the stock market and the Near-term Indicant dutifully signaled buy and bull again for those few ETF’s that had received a sell signal.

The same bearish configuration repeated in July 2009 where those same securities received sell signals. Again the bull quickly resumed control of the stock market and those sell signals were reversed into buys. Those July buys held until late January and early February 2010.

The July 2009 bearish threat was interesting from a technical perspective. Most of the ETF’s and major indices crossed above their Quick-term Bearish Yellow curves for the first time in over a year. Shortly after crossing above those bearish curves, the stock market bull became even stronger. Most of the Quick-term buy signals are still holding.

Several Near-term Bullish Blue curves started collapsing in Jan 2010. Even bell-weather, QQQQ, collapsed. Keep in mind many ETF’s, such as QQQQ, did not endure a sell signal in the May 2009 or July 2009 bearish threats. It continued with the hold signal from its March 2009 buy signal, as most other non-contrarian ETF’s had done. However, even QQQQ received a sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. Its Near-term hold signal, as well as many others, lasted nearly one year.

One of the reasons QQQQ, like many others, did not receive a sell signal in May 2009 or July 2009 bear threat was due to its Vector Pressure. This is eight dimensional expression attempts to measure investor emotion, fundamentals, and several technical metrics. It is pretty smooth, but sometimes can be misleading. However, this attribute was not misleading, for the most part, in the 2009 bull leg that originated in March. QQQQ, as well as many other ETF’s, did not endure negative pressure.

However, positive pressure shifted to negative in late January and early February. Consequently, most pressures are in bearish domains. There are, however, three non-contrarian ETF’s holding with positive (bullish) pressure. They are ETF#10-IBB; ETF#27-XLP; and ETF#29-XLY. The first one is biotechnology intensive and the latter two are retail related.

Links to these charts are in the membership section, as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/QTI-ETF-Charts/QTI-ETF3-Charts.htm#11

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/QTI-ETF-Charts/QTI-ETF7-Charts.htm#27

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/QTI-ETF-Charts/QTI-ETF8-Charts.htm#29

Biotech (IBB) is perceived as a possible beneficiary to healthcare reform. That is wrong-headed thinking from a longer-term perspective, but in the near-term, it remains with bullish attributes.

The stimulus package no doubt helped elevate retail sells (XLP, XLY), but most high-end products sold by retailers are not manufactured in the U.S. Thus, there remains limited real wealth building in the U.S. economy. Real wealth is derived from only three sources; manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction. The Far East is the most aggressive in these broad sectors, in spite of their political constraints. That is why they are debtors to weaker societies, such as the United States.

Political leadership in the U.S. and Europe do not understand the economic fact of real wealth creation. This is not a principle, philosophy, or some mysterious belief. It is pure unadulterated fact. Many economists will argue, but as members of the economic overhead group, their bias should be obvious.

Political idiots around the world continue barking against those three wealth-building sectors. With that, there are sound fundamental reasons suggesting a bull cannot last long without significant real wealth-building activity. Tax reimbursements generate a small amount pull for products from wealth builders, but that tactic has a short time horizon.

Circulating paper money from taxpayers to government to economic overhead sectors, such as teachers, lawyers, bankers, fire fighters, economists, college professors, radio talk show hosts, television anchors and other noise-making industries and low lifers on welfare does not create real wealth. A few television sets and autos will be sold to this economic overhead group, but the laws of diminishing returns will be more pronounced than paper money circulating through the capital markets to real wealth creators.

Unrest by the populace makes any political leadership take notice. This may induce political leadership may pick up a book, such as the Wealth of Nations and read it. Better yet, and as recommended by the great Shigeo Shingo, renewing knowledge from Frederick W. Taylor is all that is needed to fix any economy.

All political leadership has one primary goal; that is to remain in power. Even if their actions go against their personal beliefs, they may acquiesce to what is the right thing to do, which is undo their prior damage. With that, there is some hope. The stock market bull has been known to express dynamic behavior on hope and that alone. However, when that hope vanishes to the purpose of political fiction, the bear assumes control and with profound vengeance. The bear can punish quickly and deeply when unsubstantiated hope was the primary source of the predecessor bull.

The bull of 2009 was aroused by declining popularity of the U.S. President and the Blue Dog Democrats. The bull gained momentum with the tea party movement. With that, prognosticators kept increasing corporations projected earnings. It was a classical buy on the rumor and sell on the news. The news was Scott Brown’s election to the Senate in the bluest of blue states, Massachusetts. Shortly after the election, political leadership did not react with acknowledging their wrong-headed thinking and still promoted their stupidity. With that, the hope element of stock market bulls was carved down a bit. So much so, that it unleashed a Near-term Bear cycle.

Those three ETF’s still holding positive (bullish) pressure are primary focal points in the next few days. If their pressure succumbs to the bear, then the near-term view would be more bearish. This would also trigger some Mid-term Indicant sell signals, where many stocks and funds just recently eclipsed their bearish yellow curves, much like the first bull leg after the 1929 stock market crash in 1930.

The stock market has been relatively stable the past few years during the week of options expiration, which is this coming week. It is unlikely the stock market will reward Feb puts. If political leadership reveals movements in favor of real wealth creation, a new bull could originate. That is unlikely with the negative pressure, though. Although configurations suggest bearish aggression this coming week, do not be surprised at meandering behavior until the Feb options expire, which is this coming Friday. If bearish aggression does not occur this coming week, do not be surprised at that unpleasantness the week following options expiration.

Most short-term traders fall prey to their greed and many know the market is bearish. Although the Quants made billions in the last fifteen years or so, they lost all of that in just three days in August 2007 plus some. All models, regardless of complexity fail when the phenomenon of commonality is breeched. That occurred in August 2007. Even with that, the parasitical elite took tax money and bailed out the losers. Capital markets are not through with their punishment for that sin against universal law, which suggests, failures will indeed fail.

Disallowing that law from inflicting the proper pain will only unleash more of the same, plus some for penalty, at some future point much like the immoral behavior of saving Chrysler in the late 1970’s.

The capital markets never lose sight of right versus wrong. Now look at the pitiful automobile industry. Allowing failures to exist, when they should be extinct, threatens entire industries. Government bailouts of failures will eventually lead to threatening an entire culture. Rest assured contemporary politicians will not be adequate in whatever new culture evolves. But their egos blind them to that fact.

Fundamentally, bearish views should be obvious. However, the stock market can propel northward on only one element; that is hope. Politicians in China and the U.S. have wedged quite a bit out of the hope element the past few weeks and thus the reason for recent bearish behavior. Last week’s bullish behavior is configured as a mere bullish spurt in the face of a near-term bear. If bearish expressions continue, the Quick-term Bearish yellow curve offers another line of potential defense against the bear. If and when, contact is made with bearish yellow, there should be some resistance. If the resistance is weak, do not be surprised at the attainment of the Reverse Tangential Projections on the next major cycle to the south.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and three sell signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 215 of the 333-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 24.0%. That annualizes to 34.3%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 215-stocks and funds for an average of 36.4-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 99-stocks and funds of 333- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 32.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 87.6-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Feb 13, 2009, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 22-stocks and funds out of 344 tracked for an average of 92.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 111.9% (annualized at 63.0%). There were 322-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 34.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 36.8-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 154-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Feb 15, 2008. They were up by an average of 176.0% (annualized at 58.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of 156.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 187-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 8.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 15.0-weeks earlier.

There were 312-stocks and funds with hold signals on Feb 9, 2007 since their buy signals an average of 92.9-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 111.6% (annualized at 62.5%). There were 32-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 11.1% from their respective sell signals an average of 19.5-weeks earlier.

On Feb 10, 2006, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 285-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 111.9 (annualized at 63.5%) since their buy signals an average of 91.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 59-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 8.6% since their sell signals an average of 19.9-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Feb 11, 2005, there were 247-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 88.1% (annualized at 65.9%) since their respective buy signals an average of 69.5-weeks earlier. There were 62-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 30.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 51.9-weeks earlier.

On Feb 13, 2004, there were 261-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 68.5%, annualizing at 85.6%, since the buy signals an average of 41.7-weeks earlier. There were 13-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 27.0% since their sell signals an average of 41.7-weeks earlier.

There were 106-stocks and funds with hold signals on Feb 14, 2003. They were up by an average of 26.1%, annualizing at 50.2%, since their buy signals 27.1-weeks earlier. The 174-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 8.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 5.2-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

Access all updated information from the following link. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

The Long-term, Mid-term, and Quick-term attributes have not yet succumbed to the stock market bear’s ambition. The Near-term cycle shifted in support of bearish inclinations in early Feb 2010. This triggered a few sell signals the past few weekends.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 38.6% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 96.0% and the S&P500 is up 38.5% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 89.8% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming.

The NASDAQ is down 56.7% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 29.6% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 13.9% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bullish by 0.8% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 6.0% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms in mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was down by 4.2%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 3.5% and finished up by 8.6% for that year, which was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 4.5% in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. 2005’s post election year finished up by a mere 2.6%, which was an excellent year based on post election year historical standards of bearishness.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 2.6% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 1.5% at this time in 2007 and finished that year in positive territory by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 12.5% on this weekend in 2008. It finished down by 40.5% in 2008. That was extreme contrarian performance to historical election year bullishness and the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

The NASDAQ was down 2.2% at this time last year. It finished 2009 up by 43.9% in extreme contrarian performance to historical standards. The Dow was down 9.6% on this weekend last year but finished 2009 up by 18.1%. Although post election years are generally bearish, the Dow’s gain for 2009 was slightly below the average gain during years with post election bullishness.

The Dow is down 28.7% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 23.6% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is down 27.2% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

The Dow is up 54.3% since March 9, 2009. The NASDAQ is up 72.1% and the S&P500 is up 59.0% since then. That March 2009-January 2010 bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Evolving as a force are monetary policies of foreign governments. We use to project the U.S. Fed position. These projections must now include China.

The Fed can do little for economic stimulation. Interest rates cannot go much lower. If the economy cools even more, there are no solutions the Fed can offer. In essence, the Fed has laid all its cards on the table. Rest assured the Fed will take every opportunity to enhance its position to influence economic activity. In essence, interest rates will be quick to rise. This is one reason why the dollar has been strengthening lately.

Oil prices continue vacillating in a range the Saudi Kingdom finds comfortable. As stated for several months, the kingdom will assert its leadership and regulate supplies to demands that will result in approximately $80/bbl for a lengthy period. Of course, normal human greed will occur and the result will be military action. Participants remain unknown, but most likely will begin with Israel and Iran and concluding with the U.S. and Russia and possibly China. Any scenario is bullish for oil prices and bearish for the stock market from a longer-term perspective.

Several weeks ago, commodities began their elevation into the neutral zone from their bullish mini-cycle. Bearish yellow is now in a cyclical shift to the north, supporting a bullish cycle. As earlier stated, a continuation of these configurations will eventually lead to inflation. Although commodity prices have weakened the past few weeks, their underlying trend remains bullish. China’s credit tightening, coupled with expanding socialism in the West, is being viewed as strategically bearish in the long-term.

Although bearish the past several days, gold is obviously anticipating significant inflationary behavior with paper currencies. It is also buffering portfolios against governmental policies around the world. A tremendous amount of paper currency has been added to circulation well ahead of the productive efforts normally required to support those levels. Inflation has to follow at some future point. Increased socialism will inherently reduce supply of products and services, while paper money in the hands of the incompetent and non-productive will increase demand. At some future point, an I-Pod may cost well over $10,000. Only the “established elite” will enjoy those sort of possessions, while the masses will have to relearn the drumbeats from their primordial past. Once that nonsensicality has passed, deflation will most likely follow.

Recently softening gold prices is mere profit taking and a strengthening dollar. The optimistic 2012 forecasted price of gold is holding at $1600. The low cyclical forecast for gold is holding at $1300. The “meandering” forecast has been lowered to $1000. There are no quantifications suggesting a long-term decline in the price of gold in spite of the mysticism guiding its value.

As stated 72-weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods begin displaying its harsh reality on the reduced quality of life, rest assured the bear market will continue and with gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental. You will see that prognosis continuing in spite of the March 2009-January 2010 Bull Leg. (You may be witnessing the beginnings of this tormenting cycle right now). This cycle should endure a double dip.

As stated the past 24-weeks, on a positive note, it appears enough of the populace are influencing their political representatives to slow the progress of stupidity in spite of recent escapades by the stock market bear. If this happens, then bearish expectations of great magnitude will be muted. A measure of American voter stupidity will conclude in November 2010. The stock market may anticipate reduced stupidity and with that, the current bull market could continue through 2012.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 16, 2009. It is down 3.9% since then, annualizing at -3.9%. It was bullish last week following bearishness in the previous three weeks. All commodities, including gold, are under pressure from the U.S. dollar.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is down 2.3% since then, annualizing at -2.3%. It was bullish the past two weeks. This particular fund marches to its own drumbeat. Although out-performing Vanguard Gold and Precious metals at this time, it is not as stable as Vanguard.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 7.9%, annualizing at 14.4% since its buy signal on July 31, 2009.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant had to signal sell for this fund this past weekend. Although energy is an excellent long-term investment, cap and trade political threats, coupled with the strengthening U.S. dollar may wreak more damage to this fund than previously computed.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 5.6% since its buy signal on Sep 11, 2009, annualizing at 13.1%.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Aug 3, 2009. It is up 8.1% since then, annualizing at 14.9%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for this ETF on Jan 29, 2010. It is up 2.0% since then.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 32.7% since that buy signal, annualizing at 27.3%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal last week on Feb 4, 2010. It is up 2.6% since that sell signal.

Most commodities were mildly bullish last week and were not contrarian. That is typically bearish.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and one new bear signal.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on July 31, 2009 for all ten major indices. Unfortunately, the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear this weekend for the Dow Utilities. The nine remaining major indices retaining bull signal are up by an average of 9.8% since that bull signal. That annualizes at 18.3%.

The Dow Utilities was the weakest bull since the July 31, 2009 bull signal. That contrast with it being the strongest bull from 2003 through the peaking in 2007.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $29,005,743. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,536,458 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $139,908. That beats buy and hold’s $105,349 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $198,982. That beats buy and hold’s $75,712 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1787.8%, 32.8%, and 162.8%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 52.0% since then. It will receive a buy signal only if the Quick-term Indicant signals buy for QID. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for QID a few days ago, but the Quick-term Indicant cannot signal buy until its price crosses above bearish yellow curve. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 248.9% (annualized at 13.6%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 954-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

The March/April 2009 Near-term Bull expired on Feb 4, 2010 even though most of the ETF’s received sell signals in the prior week. That Near-term Bull was a thoroughbred. The average Near-term cycle durations range from eight to twelve weeks. This one extended for approximately ten months, whose breadth approximated the Mar 2003 bull leg.

Bear cycles enjoy less breadth than their arch enemy, but have greater propensity at delivering profound magnitude (depth) in a very short period; sometimes in a day or two, 25% of the bear’s predecessor bull leg can be wiped out. With that, avoiding non-contrarian securities is the current position one should continue with when relating to short-term positions.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

The lone NTI Bull is the VIX. It is down 4.3% since the Near-term Indicant signaled bull 2.1-weeks ago, annualizing at -4.3%.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for eleven major indices. They are up by an average of 0.3% since their bear signals an average of 1.8-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices, including contrarian VIX. They are up by an average of 14.8%, annualizing at 23.9%, since their bull signals an average of 32.2-weeks ago. The Quick-term Indicant will signal bear if and when the indices fall below their respective bearish yellow curves.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear on Feb 8, 2010 for the Dow Utilities. It fell below bearish yellow. This was the first major index to fall below yellow in nearly a year.

The DJU is down 0.3% since the QTI signaled bear 0.6-weeks ago.

As stated the past several days, the overall stock market is configured with increased potential for sustainable bearishness.

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

Quick-term Attributes (This is a longer cycle than Near-term cycles)

QTI-Red Bull Count; Zero non-contrarian; no bullish support.

QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Bullish majority with eight of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting residual bullish bias. Three of these attributes expired today.

QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish majority with 10 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias along this slower cycle. Unfortunately, contrarian VIX is also enjoying this configuration. Most major indices are centered between Red Bull and Yellow Bear curves, while the VIX is a Red Bull and thus more bullish than the non-contrarian indices. That combination adds more bearish energy.

QIT-Yellow Bear Count; One of the non-contrarian’s was inflicted with this attribute the past few days. Bearish bias appears is now supported by the DJU, but still lacking a thorough enough commitment to feed the bear’s hunger. Longer-term holders should focus on this attribute; especially if you enjoy the fundamentals of your holdings and have accumulated significant gains.

Near-term Attributes (This is a shorter cycle than the Quick-term cycles)

NTI-Blue Bull Count; Zero non-contrarian; no bullish support. Contrarian VIX is the only Blue Bull.

NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend; Zero non-contrarian; no bullish support.

NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend; Zero non-contrarian; positive bearish support.

Short-term Force Vectors and Pressure Attributes

STI-Force Vector Position; Zero in bullish domain; no bullish support.

STI-Vector Pressure Trend; Favoring bear.

STI-Vector Pressure Position; Most major indices are enduring negative (bearish) pressure. The mid-caps and small-caps lost positive bullish pressure on Feb 11, 2010. Now all major indices are with negative bearish pressure.

Short-term Market Summary

The Near-term Indicant is solidly bearish while the Quick-term Indicant offers potential resistance to the bear. Some of that resistance was lost with the Dow Utilities recently succumbing to bearish influences. However, there remains some potential resistance with only one Yellow Bear.

-Tangential Protection – There are none. The last three evaporated on Thursday, Feb 4, 2010. This has facilitated more freedom for the bear to roam.

-Political Climate – Nothing new here.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor before the first half of this year (2010). Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance. That dominance is now being challenged by the bear.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Indicant Volume Indicators

The NYSE and NASDAQ indicators are configuring with robustness, but increasingly light volume may stimulate lethargy. You will notice the curves appear to be peaking. This can influence meandering behavior, while the overall cycle remains in favor of the bear. (Recent chronological observations are expressed below in reverse order).

Feb 11, 2010-Thu-Mediocre volume on bullish behavior is unimpressive with respect to prevailing bias, which remains bearish.

Feb 10, 2010-Wed-Light volume, coupled with flat market behavior suggests big-money indecisiveness. This offers no change to bias, which is bearish.

Feb 9, 2010-Tue-Average volume, coupled with solid bullish behavior, does not offer bullish inspiration. Volume biases continue favoring the Near-term Bear.

Feb 8, 2010-Mon-Light volume on today’s bearish behavior indicates little interest in shifting from bearish to bullish bias.

Feb 5-Fri-Aggressive volume on flat market behavior generally supports prevailing bias, which is bearish.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for five ETF’s, including contrarian QID. They are up by an average of 7.6%, annualizing at 23.2%, since their buy signals an average of 17.1-weeks ago.

The NTI is avoiding 26-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 1.1% since their sell signals an average of 1.7-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 21.8% since their buy signals an average of 35.2-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 32.2%.

The lone avoided ETF, QID, is down 54.9% since its sell signal 46.1-weeks ago.

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bulls Count; there are ten, which is appears to be a boomerang increase; limited bullish support.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; only seven contrarians are sloping north; limited bullish support.

NTI Green Curve Trend; Two sloping north with declining bullish support. This is encouraging domination by the short-term stock market bear.

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; Two non-contrarian, limited bullish support.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; majority of 21-sloping north in support for Quick-term Bull, but under bear threat due to the declining population of Red Bulls. Lost seven in last five days.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. (This is a potential source of resistance to bearish aggression).

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting non-bearishness along a slower moving plane.

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

Vector Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; a minority of four non-contrarians in bullish domains, offering decreasing support for the bull. Many have now endured bearish convergence. Current configurations suggest this recently converged behavior will be inspirational to the bear.

Pressure Slope Relative to Vector Pressure: four non-contrarian in bullish position and leaning toward support of the stock market bear.

Vector Pressure Trend; only two; no bullish support.

Short-term Summary: Volume continues suggesting support for the bear and no substantive support for the bull. Most of the ETF’s are below NTI-Bearish Green Curve, which is bearish. Several bounced above green today, but this is analogized to the boomerang effect. In essence, this is a bullish spurt in the face of a near-term bear. NTI-Blue and Green are nose diving, which is bearish. Vector Pressure is directionally supporting the bear, but a few are holding in bullish domains and thus preventing some sell signals. Fundamentals are setting up to support bear and technical configurations are acquiescing to those fundamental demands.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources is up 2.0% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 29, 2010. The Quick-term Indicant continues signaling hold. It is up 8.1% since the buy signal on August 3, 2009, annualizing at 15.2%. The Quick-term Indicant will signal sell only after the price drops below QTI Yellow Curve with assistance from other attributes.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 32.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 27.5%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $98.07 and still rising.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Feb 4, 2010. It is up 2.6% since then.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

Fundamentally, gold, like most commodities, is under pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant on Feb 8, 2010. It is down 2.1% since then. If it falls below NTI Green, a quick sell signal will be generated. Its pressure remains in bearish domains and always difficult to transition to bullish domains. If this difficulty becomes insurmountable, this ETF will most likely succumb to bearish desires. Fundamentally, a bullish posture would not be out of line, though.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#31-QID on Feb 4, 2010. It is down 5.4% since that buy signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 54.9% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $25.45 and still falling.

Major ETF Events

Feb 12, 2010-Fri-Significant intraday volatility with strong bearish inclinations and with mild volume suggests little interest and/or ability to propel the market in great magnitude in either direction. The stock market quite often stabilizes during the week of option expirations, which is this coming week.

Feb 11, 2010-Thu-Bullish behavior was not unanimous with Utilities bearish behavior today. The omission of breadth suggests today’s bullishness is a component to a mere spurt in the face of a bear market.

Feb 10, 2010-Wed-Volume was very low on today’s flat to mild bearishness, suggesting very little interest in shifting bias. Thus bearish bias prevails.

Feb 9, 2010-Tue-Today’s bull behavior has no support. Current configurations suggest any rebound above NTI Blue or Green will be followed by bearish expressions of greater magnitude.

Feb 8, 2010-Mon-Contrarian TLT received a buy signal today.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Feb 12, 2010-Fri-Negative pressure, coupled with declining NTI Blue and Green offers little hope for a new NTI bull signal. Bias remains in favor of the bear, but the QTI Bearish Yellow Curve offers resistance to any dynamic behavior that may unfold. Feb 11, 2010-Thu-There is nothing different. Feb 10, 2010-Wed-Same. Feb 9, 2010-Tue-The same as yesterday. There is no technical merit to bullish behavior, which configured as a common micro-rally in the face of a burgeoning bear. There will be no buy signals as long as NTI Blue and Green are moving south with negative pressure. Feb 8, 2010-Mon-There are too few short-term attributes suggesting the bull can withstand the bear’s quest for dominance.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.