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January Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Updates

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Jan 31, 2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 01, Issue 21 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Near-term attributes: Mixed with minimal obviation, but with a slight bearish bias.

Quick-term Red Bulls: Two of thirty; None are non-contrarian. Zero bullish support.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twenty-three of thirty. Bearish support.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is -8.6%, which is solidly bearish.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential -1.3%, which is bearish.

Force Vectors: Shifted north today, but mature cycles are reducing probability of bullish behavior.

Vector Pressure: Two in bullish domains. Twenty-eight in bearish domains. Bearish support.

Long-term Hold Positions: Continue holding, except where sell signals are noted.

Immediate Tactics: Sell aggressively on signals.

Current Quick-term Bias: Configurations continue favoring the bear.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: 8/15/06 –bullish-bias expired on 01/04/08.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.

Volume: Bearish bias dominant, but weakening with what appears to be returning lethargy.

 

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on Friday, January 4, 2008 for both major indices. The Dow is down 1.2% and the NASDAQ is down 4.6%, respectively, since that bear signal.

 

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

 

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  have lost their robustness. Today’s volume was moderately high on market bullishness, which supports the bull’s ambition. However, keep in mind, the market is precariously attempting adjustment to economic outlook. It would not take much to excite the bear.

 

The NASDAQ crossed above bearish yellow. This event invites a bearish response in established bear markets. Of course, this is not an established bear market. Although the near-term indicators remain too immature for immediate obviation, do not be surprised if the market is bearish in the next within the next few days.

 

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 51.5% (annualized at 16.8%) since their respective buy signals an average of 157.7-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding 18-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 1.8% since their sell signals an average of 5.9-weeks ago.

 

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

 

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals.  Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 13-ETF’s. They are up an average of 132.5% (annualized 41.1%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 165.7-weeks ago.  Although there were no sell signals, there are 17-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 2.2% since their sell signals an average of 6.1-weeks ago.

 

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

 

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for only five-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 56.4% (annualized at 38.1%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 76.1-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 25-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 2.9% since their sell signals an average of 4.9-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

 

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are eight conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. The Consolidated Indicant has 13-hold signals and 17-avoid signals providing a bearish edge. This also suggests market disharmony. The bullish bias shift on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008. Please read on.

 

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Twenty-three of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by 0.6%. This attribute is not providing any non-bearish support.

 

Only two of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves. All thirty ETF average positions are 8.0% below their bullish red curves. None are non-contrarian. This attribute is offering no bullish support. Keep in mind QID is not included in this statistic. It is discussed near the end of this report.

 

The QTI differential is minus 8.6%. This is bearishly biased.

 

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

 

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. There is no bullish support from this attribute at this time.

 

This was the nineteenth consecutive trading day of non-contrarian non-contact, which is a bearish attribute and increasing bearish intensity.

 

The average distance from breakout contact is 14.6%. Double digit variances from breakout contact for eighteen consecutive trading-days is not supportive of the bull.

 

None of the ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. This is due to bullish bounces one week ago. Non-contrarian contact in fourteen of the last nineteen trading days is bearish.

 

The average distance between the price and breakdown is 13.3%. This configuration is  providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003, but barely hanging on to that support.

 

The breakout/breakdown differential is a negative 1.3%. The negative value suggests bearish bias.

 

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

 

Twenty-six Force Vectors are directionally bullish, which is up by six from yesterday. These cycles are mature, which is increasing the probability of bearish behavior.

 

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

 

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

 

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no option buy signals after Thursday’s close. Today’s bullish behavior set up nicely for yesterday’s put option signal. Bearish expressions within the next couple of days should produce profit.

 

Only two of the thirty ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. This is no longer providing near-unanimous or majority bullish support. These are contrarian funds and thus void of any bullish support.

 

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

 

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

 

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The bullish bias shift that began on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008.

 

January 30, 2008 – The Fed’s cut in interest rates did not stimulate bullish interest, which is bearish. However, it is better to wait for near-term attributes to mature before resuming written covered call options.

 

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is now avoiding QQQQ. You will notice the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for ProFunds Ultra Short. Continue holding unless you see a buy signal for QQQQ or sell signal for ProFunds Ultra Short or ETF#31-QID, which is discussed below.

 

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It is excluded from overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This exclusion is required for convergent/divergent monitoring.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on January 8, 2008 for this ETF. It is up 9.4% since that buy signal (annualized at 147.3%).

 

QID is down 3.0% since the Short-term and Consolidated Indicant signaled buy on January 22, 2008.

 

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

 

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

 

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

 

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

 

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

01/31/08

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 30, 2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 01, Issue 20 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Near-term attributes: Mixed with minimal obviation, but with a slight bearish bias.

Quick-term Red Bulls: Two of thirty; None are non-contrarian. Zero bullish support.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twenty-three of thirty. Bearish support.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is -12.0%, which is solidly bearish.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential -4.7%, which is bearish.

Force Vectors: Shifted south today, offering bearish support.

Vector Pressure: Two in bullish domains. Twenty-eight in bearish domains. Bearish support.

Long-term Hold Positions: Continue holding, except where sell signals are noted.

Immediate Tactics: Sell aggressively on signals.

Current Quick-term Bias: Configurations continue favoring the bear.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: 8/15/06 –bullish-bias expired on 01/04/08.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.

Volume: Bearish bias dominant, but weakening with what appears to be returning lethargy.

 

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on Friday, January 4, 2008 for both major indices. The Dow is down 2.8% and the NASDAQ is down 6.2%, respectively, since that bear signal.

 

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

 

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  are in an embryonic configuration of lethargy. The Indicant seldom refers to daily news for stock market timing, since the market is only concerned about six to nine months from now. However, the near-term indicators are still too immature for obviation of immediate directional intensity. Today’s Fed interest rate reduction stimulated some intraday bullishness, but the market resumed to more appropriate behavior, consistent economic recession. That adds attributes of bullish anemia and bearish steroids. Volume was mild as the market had, as it usually does, already adjusted for today’s interest rate cuts. Near-term configurations, although immature, edge in favor of continued bearishness.

 

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 48.9% (annualized at 16.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 157.6-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding 18-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 3.8% since their sell signals an average of 5.7-weeks ago.

 

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

 

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals.  Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 13-ETF’s. They are up an average of 129.0% (annualized 40.1%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 165.5-weeks ago.  Although there were no sell signals, there are 17-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 4.2% since their sell signals an average of 6.0-weeks ago.

 

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

 

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for only five-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 55.0% (annualized at 37.2%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 76.0-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 25-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 4.7% since their sell signals an average of 4.7-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

 

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are eight conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. The Consolidated Indicant has 13-hold signals and 17-avoid signals providing a bearish edge. This suggests market disharmony. The bullish bias shift on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008. Please read on.

 

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Twenty-three of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by 2.4%. This attribute is not providing any non-bearish support.

 

Only two of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves. All thirty ETF average positions are 9.6% below their bullish red curves. None are non-contrarian. This attribute is offering no bullish support. Keep in mind QID is not included in this statistic. It is discussed near the end of this report.

 

The QTI differential is minus 12.0%. This is bearishly biased.

 

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

 

One of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. Again, it is contrarian EFT#11-Precious Metals. There is no bullish support from this attribute at this time, as contrarian securities directional intensity is irrelevant to market sentiment and bias.

 

This was the seventeenth consecutive trading day of non-contrarian non-contact, which is a bearish attribute and increasing bearish intensity.

 

The average distance from breakout contact is 16.0%. Double digit variances from breakout contact for seventeen consecutive trading-days is not supportive of the bull.

 

None of the ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. This is due to bullish bounces one week ago. Non-contrarian contact in fourteen of the last eighteen trading days is bearish.

 

The average distance between the price and breakdown is 11.4%. This configuration is  providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003, but barely hanging on to that support.

 

The breakout/breakdown differential is a negative 4.7%. The negative value suggests bearish bias.

 

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

 

Twenty Force Vectors are directionally bullish, which is down by nine from yesterday. There is a slight shift in favor of the bear, contrasting with configurations since January 4, 2008 where bearish dominance prevailed. These cycles appear to be turning south, favoring bearish ambition.

 

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

 

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

 

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. After five quiet days of no activity, there was one put option buy signal after Wednesday’s close.

 

Only two of the thirty ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. This is no longer providing near-unanimous or majority bullish support. These are contrarian funds and thus void of any bullish support.

 

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

 

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

 

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The bullish bias shift that began on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008.

 

January 30, 2008 – The Fed’s cut in interest rates did not stimulate bullish interest, which is bearish. However, it is better to wait for near-term attributes to mature before resuming written covered call options.

 

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is now avoiding QQQQ. You will notice the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for ProFunds Ultra Short. Continue holding unless you see a buy signal for QQQQ or sell signal for ProFunds Ultra Short or ETF#31-QID, which is discussed below.

 

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It is excluded from overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This exclusion is required for convergent/divergent monitoring.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on January 8, 2008 for this ETF. It is up 11.7% since that buy signal (annualized at 191.9%).

 

QID is down 1.0% since the Short-term and Consolidated Indicant signaled buy on January 22, 2008.

 

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

 

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

 

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

 

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

 

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

01/30/08

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 29, 2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 01, Issue 19 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Near-term attributes: Mixed with minimal obviation, but with a slight bullish bias.

Quick-term Red Bulls: Two of thirty; None are non-contrarian. Zero bullish support.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twenty-three of thirty. Bearish support.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is -10.6%, which is bearish.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential -3.0%. A negative value is bearish bias.

Force Vectors: Shifting north, reversing bearish support since January 4, 2008.

Vector Pressure: Two in bullish domains. Twenty-eight in bearish domains. Bearish support.

Long-term Hold Positions: Continue holding, except where sell signals are noted.

Immediate Tactics: Sell aggressively on signals.

Current Quick-term Bias: Configurations continue favoring the bear with near-term bullish spurts.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: 8/15/06 bullish bias expired on 01/04/08.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.

Volume: Bearish bias dominant, but weakening.

 

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on Friday, January 4, 2008 for both major indices. The Dow is down 2.5% and the NASDAQ is down 5.9%, respectively, since that bear signal.

 

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

 

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  robustness continues accelerating with the majority of this cycle coinciding with aggressive bearishness. That supports a bearish bias. However, “political interference” is propelling increasing probabilities of a near-term bullish influence. The question will be if this interference will invite a return to bullish sustainability. Technical indicators are too immature to answer that at this time. Fundamentals will reside in corporate earnings over the next few months.

 

Worthy of mention is today’s NYSE crossing above its bearish yellow curve, which is negatively sloped. It will be interesting to see how “comfortable” this index finds this cyclically contrarian position. If the Fed “disappoints” later this week, this configuration supports sudden deep bearishness. The NASDAQ continues to find little interest in moving above its negatively sloped bearish yellow curve, which offers no floor to bounce from.

 

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 50.0% (annualized at 16.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of 157.5-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding 18-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 2.9% since their sell signals an average of 5.6-weeks ago.

 

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

 

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals.  Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 13-ETF’s. They are up an average of 130.4% (annualized 40.6%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 165.4-weeks ago.  Although there were no sell signals, there are 17-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 3.2% since their sell signals an average of 5.8-weeks ago.

 

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

 

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for only five-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 55.6% (annualized at 37.7%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 75.9-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 25-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 3.8% since their sell signals an average of 4.6-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

 

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are eight conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This suggests market disharmony. The bullish bias shift on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008. Please read on.

 

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Twenty-three of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by 1.6%. This attribute is not providing any non-bearish support.

 

Only two of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves. All thirty ETF average positions are 9.0% below their bullish red curves. None are non-contrarian. This attribute is offering no bullish support. Keep in mind QID is not included in this statistic. It is discussed near the end of this report.

 

The QTI differential is minus 10.6%. This is bearishly biased. Research efforts will be forthcoming. Until then, this significant attribute will be reported in this daily stock market report.

 

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

 

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. There is no bullish support from this attribute at this time.

 

This was the sixteenth consecutive trading day of non-contrarian non-contact, which is a bearish attribute and increasing bearish intensity.

 

The average distance from breakout contact is 15.3%. Double digit variances from breakout contact for sixteen consecutive trading-days is not supportive of the bull.

 

None of the ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. This is due to bullish bounces last Wednesday and last Thursday. Non-contrarian contact in thirteen of the last seventeen trading days is bearish.

 

The average distance from the price and breakdown is 12.3%. This configuration is  providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003, but barely hanging on to that support.

 

The breakout/breakdown differential is a negative 3.0%. This supports bearish ambition in spite of recent bullish bounces. A negative value suggests bearish bias.

 

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

 

Twenty-nine Force Vectors are directionally bullish from yesterday. There is a slight shift in favor of the bear, contrasting with configurations since January 4, 2008 where bearish dominance prevailed. However, the cycles are mature, which may challenge bullish desires.

 

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

 

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

 

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no option buy signals after Tuesday’s close. This is the fifth consecutive trading day of no option signals.

 

Only two of the thirty ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. This is no longer providing near-unanimous or majority bullish support. These are contrarian funds and thus void of any bullish support.

 

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

 

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

 

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The bullish bias shift that began on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008.

 

January 29, 2008-It is recommended to discontinue writing covered call options at this time. Let’s wait for the Fed’s move this week and for additional demonstrative near-term and quick-term attributes. Near-term attributes are configuring with mixed results, increasing the risk in writing covered options.

 

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is now avoiding QQQQ. You will notice the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for ProFunds Ultra Short. Continue holding unless you see a buy signal for QQQQ or sell signal for ProFunds Ultra Short or ETF#31-QID, which is discussed below.

 

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It is excluded from overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This exclusion is required for convergent/divergent monitoring.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on January 8, 2008 for this ETF. It is up 11.5% since that buy signal (annualized at 196.8%).

 

QID is down 1.2% since the Short-term and Consolidated Indicant signaled buy on January 22, 2008.

 

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

 

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

 

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

 

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

 

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

01/29/08

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 28, 2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 01, Issue 18 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Two of thirty; None are non-contrarian. Zero bullish support.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twenty-three of thirty. Bearish support.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential -3.8%. A negative value is bearish bias.

Force Vectors: Zero in bullish domains. No bullish support.

Vector Pressure: Two in bullish domains. Twenty-eight in bearish domains. Bearish support.

Long-term Hold Positions: Continue holding, except where sell signals are noted.

Immediate Tactics: Sell aggressively on signals.

Current Quick-term Bias: Configurations continue favoring the bear with near-term bullish spurts.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: 8/15/06 bullish bias expired on 01/04/08.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.

Volume: Mixed configurations. Increasing obviation of bearish bias.

 

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on Friday, January 4, 2008 for both major indices. The Dow is down 3.3% and the NASDAQ is down 6.5%, respectively, since that bear signal.

 

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

 

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  robustness continues accelerating with the majority of this cycle coinciding with aggressive bearishness.

 

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 49.2% (annualized at 16.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 157.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding 18-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 3.5% since their sell signals an average of 5.5-weeks ago.

 

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

 

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals.  Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling