Jan 31,
2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 01, Issue
21 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Near-term
attributes:
Mixed with
minimal obviation, but with a slight bearish bias.
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Two of thirty; None are non-contrarian. Zero bullish support.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Twenty-three of thirty. Bearish support.
Quick-term
Non-Bearishness:
QTI differential is -8.6%, which is solidly bearish.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Breakout/breakdown differential -1.3%, which is bearish.
Force
Vectors:
Shifted north today, but mature cycles are reducing probability of bullish
behavior.
Vector
Pressure:
Two in
bullish domains. Twenty-eight in bearish domains. Bearish support.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Continue
holding, except where sell signals are noted.
Immediate
Tactics:
Sell aggressively on signals.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Configurations continue favoring the bear.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
8/15/06
–bullish-bias expired on 01/04/08.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.
Volume:
Bearish bias dominant, but weakening with what appears to be returning
lethargy.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bear on Friday, January 4, 2008 for both
major indices. The Dow is down 1.2% and the NASDAQ is down 4.6%,
respectively, since that bear signal.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s have lost their robustness. Today’s
volume was moderately high on market bullishness, which supports the
bull’s ambition. However, keep in mind, the market is precariously
attempting adjustment to economic outlook. It would not take much to
excite the bear.
The NASDAQ
crossed above bearish yellow. This event invites a bearish response in
established bear markets. Of course, this is not an established bear
market. Although the near-term indicators remain too immature for
immediate obviation, do not be surprised if the market is bearish in the
next within the next few days.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the SQI is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 51.5%
(annualized at 16.8%) since their respective buy signals an average of
157.7-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding
18-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 1.8% since their
sell signals an average of 5.9-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 13-ETF’s. They are up an
average of 132.5% (annualized 41.1%) since the STI signaled, buy, an
average of 165.7-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there
are 17-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 2.2% since
their sell signals an average of 6.1-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for only five-ETF’s. They are up
by an average of 56.4% (annualized at 38.1%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 76.1-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 25-ETF’s. They are down by an average of
2.9% since their sell signals an average of 4.9-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There are
eight conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term
Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. The
Consolidated Indicant has 13-hold signals and 17-avoid signals providing a
bearish edge. This also suggests market disharmony. The bullish bias shift
on August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008. Please read on.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Twenty-three
of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The
average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by
0.6%. This attribute is not providing any non-bearish support.
Only two of
the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves. All thirty ETF
average positions are 8.0% below their bullish red curves. None are
non-contrarian. This attribute is offering no bullish support. Keep in
mind QID is not included in this statistic. It is discussed near the end
of this report.
The QTI
differential is minus 8.6%. This is bearishly biased.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
None of the
thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. There is no bullish
support from this attribute at this time.
This was the
nineteenth consecutive trading day of non-contrarian non-contact, which is
a bearish attribute and increasing bearish intensity.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 14.6%. Double digit variances from
breakout contact for eighteen consecutive trading-days is not supportive
of the bull.
None of the
ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. This is due to bullish bounces
one week ago. Non-contrarian contact in fourteen of the last nineteen
trading days is bearish.
The average
distance between the price and breakdown is 13.3%. This configuration is
providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003,
but barely hanging on to that support.
The
breakout/breakdown differential is a negative 1.3%. The negative value
suggests bearish bias.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
Twenty-six
Force Vectors are directionally bullish, which is up by six from
yesterday. These cycles are mature, which is increasing the probability of
bearish behavior.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no
option buy signals after Thursday’s close. Today’s bullish behavior set up
nicely for yesterday’s put option signal. Bearish expressions within the
next couple of days should produce profit.
Only two of
the thirty
ETF
Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. This is no longer providing
near-unanimous or majority bullish support. These are contrarian funds and
thus void of any bullish support.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The bullish bias shift that began on
August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008.
January 30,
2008 – The Fed’s cut in interest rates did not stimulate bullish interest,
which is bearish. However, it is better to wait for near-term attributes
to mature before resuming written covered call options.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is now avoiding QQQQ.
You will notice the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for ProFunds Ultra
Short. Continue holding unless you see a buy signal for QQQQ or sell
signal for ProFunds Ultra Short or ETF#31-QID, which is discussed below.
The
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF
cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet
developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It is excluded from
overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to
move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This
exclusion is required for convergent/divergent monitoring.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on January 8, 2008 for this ETF. It is up
9.4% since that buy signal (annualized at 147.3%).
QID is down
3.0% since the Short-term and Consolidated Indicant signaled buy on
January 22, 2008.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Quick-term ETF Options
Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s
Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related
tours.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.Net
01/31/08
Jan 30,
2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 01, Issue
20 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Near-term
attributes:
Mixed with
minimal obviation, but with a slight bearish bias.
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Two of thirty; None are non-contrarian. Zero bullish support.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Twenty-three of thirty. Bearish support.
Quick-term
Non-Bearishness:
QTI differential is -12.0%, which is solidly bearish.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Breakout/breakdown differential -4.7%, which is bearish.
Force
Vectors:
Shifted south today, offering bearish support.
Vector
Pressure:
Two in
bullish domains. Twenty-eight in bearish domains. Bearish support.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Continue
holding, except where sell signals are noted.
Immediate
Tactics:
Sell aggressively on signals.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Configurations continue favoring the bear.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
8/15/06
–bullish-bias expired on 01/04/08.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.
Volume:
Bearish bias dominant, but weakening with what appears to be returning
lethargy.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bear on Friday, January 4, 2008 for both
major indices. The Dow is down 2.8% and the NASDAQ is down 6.2%,
respectively, since that bear signal.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s are in an embryonic configuration of
lethargy. The Indicant seldom refers to daily news for stock market
timing, since the market is only concerned about six to nine months from
now. However, the near-term indicators are still too immature for
obviation of immediate directional intensity. Today’s Fed interest rate
reduction stimulated some intraday bullishness, but the market resumed to
more appropriate behavior, consistent economic recession. That adds
attributes of bullish anemia and bearish steroids. Volume was mild as the
market had, as it usually does, already adjusted for today’s interest rate
cuts. Near-term configurations, although immature, edge in favor of
continued bearishness.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the SQI is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 48.9%
(annualized at 16.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of
157.6-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding
18-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 3.8% since their
sell signals an average of 5.7-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 13-ETF’s. They are up an
average of 129.0% (annualized 40.1%) since the STI signaled, buy, an
average of 165.5-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there
are 17-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 4.2% since
their sell signals an average of 6.0-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for only five-ETF’s. They are up
by an average of 55.0% (annualized at 37.2%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 76.0-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 25-ETF’s. They are down by an average of
4.7% since their sell signals an average of 4.7-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There are
eight conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term
Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. The
Consolidated Indicant has 13-hold signals and 17-avoid signals providing a
bearish edge. This suggests market disharmony. The bullish bias shift on
August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008. Please read on.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Twenty-three
of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The
average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by
2.4%. This attribute is not providing any non-bearish support.
Only two of
the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves. All thirty ETF
average positions are 9.6% below their bullish red curves. None are
non-contrarian. This attribute is offering no bullish support. Keep in
mind QID is not included in this statistic. It is discussed near the end
of this report.
The QTI
differential is minus 12.0%. This is bearishly biased.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
One of the
thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. Again, it is contrarian
EFT#11-Precious Metals. There is no bullish support from this attribute at
this time, as contrarian securities directional intensity is irrelevant to
market sentiment and bias.
This was the
seventeenth consecutive trading day of non-contrarian non-contact, which
is a bearish attribute and increasing bearish intensity.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 16.0%. Double digit variances from
breakout contact for seventeen consecutive trading-days is not supportive
of the bull.
None of the
ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. This is due to bullish bounces
one week ago. Non-contrarian contact in fourteen of the last eighteen
trading days is bearish.
The average
distance between the price and breakdown is 11.4%. This configuration is
providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003,
but barely hanging on to that support.
The
breakout/breakdown differential is a negative 4.7%. The negative value
suggests bearish bias.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
Twenty Force
Vectors are directionally bullish, which is down by nine from yesterday.
There is a slight shift in favor of the bear, contrasting with
configurations since January 4, 2008 where bearish dominance prevailed.
These cycles appear to be turning south, favoring bearish ambition.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. After five
quiet days of no activity, there was one put option buy signal after
Wednesday’s close.
Only two of
the thirty
ETF
Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. This is no longer providing
near-unanimous or majority bullish support. These are contrarian funds and
thus void of any bullish support.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The bullish bias shift that began on
August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008.
January 30,
2008 – The Fed’s cut in interest rates did not stimulate bullish interest,
which is bearish. However, it is better to wait for near-term attributes
to mature before resuming written covered call options.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is now avoiding QQQQ.
You will notice the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for ProFunds Ultra
Short. Continue holding unless you see a buy signal for QQQQ or sell
signal for ProFunds Ultra Short or ETF#31-QID, which is discussed below.
The
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF
cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet
developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It is excluded from
overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to
move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This
exclusion is required for convergent/divergent monitoring.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on January 8, 2008 for this ETF. It is up
11.7% since that buy signal (annualized at 191.9%).
QID is down
1.0% since the Short-term and Consolidated Indicant signaled buy on
January 22, 2008.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Quick-term ETF Options
Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s
Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related
tours.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.Net
01/30/08
Jan 29,
2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 01, Issue
19 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Near-term
attributes:
Mixed with
minimal obviation, but with a slight bullish bias.
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Two of thirty; None are non-contrarian. Zero bullish support.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Twenty-three of thirty. Bearish support.
Quick-term
Non-Bearishness:
QTI differential is -10.6%, which is bearish.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Breakout/breakdown differential -3.0%. A negative value is bearish bias.
Force
Vectors:
Shifting north, reversing bearish support since January 4, 2008.
Vector
Pressure:
Two in
bullish domains. Twenty-eight in bearish domains. Bearish support.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Continue
holding, except where sell signals are noted.
Immediate
Tactics:
Sell aggressively on signals.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Configurations continue favoring the bear with near-term bullish spurts.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
8/15/06
bullish bias expired on 01/04/08.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.
Volume:
Bearish bias dominant, but weakening.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bear on Friday, January 4, 2008 for both
major indices. The Dow is down 2.5% and the NASDAQ is down 5.9%,
respectively, since that bear signal.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s robustness continues accelerating with
the majority of this cycle coinciding with aggressive bearishness. That
supports a bearish bias. However, “political interference” is propelling
increasing probabilities of a near-term bullish influence. The question
will be if this interference will invite a return to bullish
sustainability. Technical indicators are too immature to answer that at
this time. Fundamentals will reside in corporate earnings over the next
few months.
Worthy of
mention is today’s NYSE crossing above its bearish yellow curve, which is
negatively sloped. It will be interesting to see how “comfortable” this
index finds this cyclically contrarian position. If the Fed “disappoints”
later this week, this configuration supports sudden deep bearishness. The
NASDAQ continues to find little interest in moving above its negatively
sloped bearish yellow curve, which offers no floor to bounce from.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the SQI is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 50.0%
(annualized at 16.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of
157.5-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding
18-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 2.9% since their
sell signals an average of 5.6-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 13-ETF’s. They are up an
average of 130.4% (annualized 40.6%) since the STI signaled, buy, an
average of 165.4-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there
are 17-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 3.2% since
their sell signals an average of 5.8-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for only five-ETF’s. They are up
by an average of 55.6% (annualized at 37.7%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 75.9-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 25-ETF’s. They are down by an average of
3.8% since their sell signals an average of 4.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There are
eight conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term
Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This suggests
market disharmony. The bullish bias shift on August 15, 2006 expired on
January 4, 2008. Please read on.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Twenty-three
of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The
average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by
1.6%. This attribute is not providing any non-bearish support.
Only two of
the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves. All thirty ETF
average positions are 9.0% below their bullish red curves. None are
non-contrarian. This attribute is offering no bullish support. Keep in
mind QID is not included in this statistic. It is discussed near the end
of this report.
The QTI
differential is minus 10.6%. This is bearishly biased. Research efforts
will be forthcoming. Until then, this significant attribute will be
reported in this daily stock market report.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
None of the
thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. There is no bullish
support from this attribute at this time.
This was the
sixteenth consecutive trading day of non-contrarian non-contact, which is
a bearish attribute and increasing bearish intensity.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 15.3%. Double digit variances from
breakout contact for sixteen consecutive trading-days is not supportive of
the bull.
None of the
ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. This is due to bullish bounces
last Wednesday and last Thursday. Non-contrarian contact in thirteen of
the last seventeen trading days is bearish.
The average
distance from the price and breakdown is 12.3%. This configuration is
providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003,
but barely hanging on to that support.
The
breakout/breakdown differential is a negative 3.0%. This supports bearish
ambition in spite of recent bullish bounces. A negative value suggests
bearish bias.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
Twenty-nine
Force Vectors are directionally bullish from yesterday. There is a slight
shift in favor of the bear, contrasting with configurations since January
4, 2008 where bearish dominance prevailed. However, the cycles are mature,
which may challenge bullish desires.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no
option buy signals after Tuesday’s close. This is the fifth consecutive
trading day of no option signals.
Only two of
the thirty
ETF
Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. This is no longer providing
near-unanimous or majority bullish support. These are contrarian funds and
thus void of any bullish support.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The bullish bias shift that began on
August 15, 2006 expired on January 4, 2008.
January 29,
2008-It is recommended to discontinue writing covered call options at this
time. Let’s wait for the Fed’s move this week and for additional
demonstrative near-term and quick-term attributes. Near-term attributes
are configuring with mixed results, increasing the risk in writing covered
options.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is now avoiding QQQQ.
You will notice the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for ProFunds Ultra
Short. Continue holding unless you see a buy signal for QQQQ or sell
signal for ProFunds Ultra Short or ETF#31-QID, which is discussed below.
The
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF
cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet
developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It is excluded from
overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to
move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This
exclusion is required for convergent/divergent monitoring.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on January 8, 2008 for this ETF. It is up
11.5% since that buy signal (annualized at 196.8%).
QID is down
1.2% since the Short-term and Consolidated Indicant signaled buy on
January 22, 2008.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Quick-term ETF Options
Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s
Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related
tours.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.Net
01/29/08
Jan 28,
2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 01, Issue
18 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Two of thirty; None are non-contrarian. Zero bullish support.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Twenty-three of thirty. Bearish support.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Breakout/breakdown differential -3.8%. A negative value is bearish bias.
Force
Vectors:
Zero in bullish domains. No bullish support.
Vector
Pressure:
Two in
bullish domains. Twenty-eight in bearish domains. Bearish support.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Continue
holding, except where sell signals are noted.
Immediate
Tactics:
Sell aggressively on signals.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Configurations continue favoring the bear with near-term bullish spurts.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
8/15/06
bullish bias expired on 01/04/08.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.
Volume:
Mixed configurations. Increasing obviation of bearish bias.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bear on Friday, January 4, 2008 for both
major indices. The Dow is down 3.3% and the NASDAQ is down 6.5%,
respectively, since that bear signal.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s robustness continues accelerating with
the majority of this cycle coinciding with aggressive bearishness.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the SQI is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 49.2%
(annualized at 16.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of
157.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding
18-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 3.5% since their
sell signals an average of 5.5-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling