January 25,
2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report
Volume 1, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The
Indicant Stock Market Report
This Week’s
Report
Who Creates
Wealth Producing Jobs
Per capita
income doubled from 1700 to 1770 in the colonies. There was no formal
country, other than English royalty skimming the hard working efforts of
the colonists. George Washington did not take office until 1778. It
appears the economy was doing just fine prior to the first U.S. President.
During this
doubling of per capita income, there were no congressional
representatives, no president, and very few mayors. Unemployment was
non-existent. At least there are no readily available statistics
suggesting rising or shrinking unemployment during that period.
The economy
during this period was centered primarily on only one element of economic
wealth creation; agriculture. There was limited manufacturing and
extraction, other than hunting and some mining.
Without the
help of politicians or government, economic prosperity accelerated. The
rapid expansion of the other two elements of economic wealth,
manufacturing and extraction, facilitated a continuation of the growth in
per capita income. It grew dramatically even after the establishment of
politicians.
Politicians
during the 1800’s, for the most part, had direct experience with the three
elements of wealth creation, agriculture, manufacturing, and extraction.
They knew how to shoot deer, skin it, cook it, and eat it. That is a
powerful form of extraction and an expression of maximum efficiency.
Today’s
politicians, for the most part, have never directly engaged with the sole
three sectors that provide economic wealth. That career omission implies
an incompleteness of knowledge. In other words, a politician’s thought
process is warped, inaccurate, and usually damaging to the economy. As
stated many times in this report, riskless decision making always leads to
poor decisions.
The
Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report of January 11, 2009 highlighted
how the stock market goes down more often when Congress is in session.
That report referenced "The Congressional Effect Fund", where it fully
invests in the stock market when Congress is out of session and sells all
stocks when Congress returns to work. More money is made when Congress is
not at work; 17-times more.
Last week’s
Indicant Stock Market report discussed three classes of people;
capitalist, soldiers, and everyone else. Today’s report will simplify that
quite a bit. One could slice humanity into two broad groups; the elite and
everyone else, where everyone else is contained in the sub grouping of
soldiers and capitalists.
It was
reported that private jets flying into Washington D.C. for the
recent presidential inauguration was so voluminous that surrounding airports had
to be used to accommodate them. It is obvious the “elite” showed up for
Barack Obama’s presidential inauguration. The rest of us were at work
except for all those "followers" standing in sub-freezing temperatures in
Washington D.C. on inauguration day.
The elite
group can be carved up into three different sub-groups; earned elite
status, unearned elite status, and fame. The earned elite status group is
first generation real rich people, such as Bill Gates, Michael Dell, etc.
They are in the capitalist group and it is unknown if they were at the
inauguration. They are older now, but in their younger days, it is likely
they did not even know who the president of the United States was. After
all, that had nothing to do with computer software or the manufacture of
computers.
When Henry
Ford was once asked by the plaintiff’s attorney, “who was the first
president of the United States” Henry replied, “I don’t know and added,
what does that have to do with building cars?” The attorney ridiculed
Henry for not knowing that George Washington was the answer. The attorney
created wealth for himself, while Henry’s efforts netted several
millionaires in the automobile industry. No one knows everything, but a
few know what is relevant.
The
plaintiff’s attorney was among the elite. He was rich. No else got rich
from that attorney’s effort. Henry Ford was also among the elite, as he
was also very rich. The attorney did nothing in agriculture, manufacturing, or
extraction. Therefore, he, like all other attorneys, do not create wealth.
Henry Ford manufactured automobiles. That created profound economic wealth
for many.
Those in the
unearned elite sub-group inherited their wealth or got lucky in their
employment. Most Fortune 500 CEO’s are in this group. They successfully
climbed the corporate ladder. That effort should earn them no more than
$400,000 per year with an expense account that will not pay for more than
two beers and a rib eye. Unfortunately, as a hold-over from class society,
their hand-picked board of directors authorize those fat checks to the CEO,
as opposed to being a safeguard for shareholders. In return, the board
members receive a fairly sizeable check for working only a few days a
year. The term, work, just means being present, as they add no economic
value with a few exceptions.
The elite do
not like newness. They look at their soft handed, spoiled offspring and
want to protect them. That is why you see hard driving capitalist shift to
socialistic views in their later years in life. They know they descendents
are not competitive and therefore, want to protect them with what they
have. That is one purpose of socialism; protecting what the rich already
have.
The fame sub
group of the elite is an interesting group. There are two primary avenues
toward acquiring fame; entertainment or professional athletes. Actors from
the land of fake and fiction are far removed from reality. After all, most
of what they do for a living is phony. That means their thinking, by
default, is phony. That “land of fake and fiction” thinking is limited to
a single dimension; one line of script at a time. Most problems are
cultivated through two or more dimensions. The elite from the land of fake
and fiction cannot accurately think about such problems and thus should be
ignored anywhere other than being in the pictures.
Professional
athletes, for the most part, do not express their political thoughts.
Focus is required in their vocation and political thinking and talking
adds no value to them, just as it does add any economic value to the rest
of us. Swinging at a curve ball concludes in one of two ways; it is
successful or it is unsuccessful. Enhancing success requires constant
focus on the vocation of being a ball player. Actors on the other hand
recover from their pitfalls, privately. No one sees his or her mistakes.
The producer simply cuts them from the film, while the failing ball player
walks back to the dugout with his head hanging low. The people from the
land of fake and fiction are a very pitiful lot, while the athlete lives
in a simple reality.
If you are not
among the elite, consider those who are elite that engage in political
activity as your economic enemy. Here is how the Wikipedia Encyclopedia
described the elites’ views a few hundred years ago. “While
upper-class European intellectuals generally looked on commerce with
disdain, most Americans—living in a society with a more fluid class
structure enthusiastically embraced the idea of moneymaking. They enjoyed
the risk and excitement of business enterprise, as well as the higher
living standards and potential rewards of power and acclaim that business
success brought.”
The
elite enjoyed life through the dark ages. They had everything while most
lived in poverty. Communism reflected the jealousies of the masses by
transferring assets from the "productive" elite to the masses. Since most of the masses
have limited competence, those assets dried in the wind and blew away.
After that, a new group of elite were in charge. Leaders of the communist
party lived like kings while the remaining ninety-nine percent of the
population lived in poverty. In other words, four or five generations of
shifting assets from one group to another did not improve the economy. On
the contrary, the quality of life for the masses worsened.
Presidents, Kings, Dictators, etc. do not create jobs. They do not create
economic wealth and prosperity. Since the masses have limited competence,
they believe the words that flow from political mouths. The threat of that
is tyranny by the majority.
Political leadership, regardless of form, can offer absolutely nothing to
the economy. The only thing they can do is undo their prior harm. They
tend to not do this, as they cater to the elite, who are your economic
enemy. Rest assured, the more involved the government becomes with respect
to the economy, the longer it will take to recover. Right now, recovery
appears to be a long time from now.
Keep your eye
on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate
directional sustainability versus contrarian spurt behavior, regardless of the directional intensity
underway.
Weekly
Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant
Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply
scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.
The Mid-term
Indicant generated one buy signal and ten sell signals. There have been
531-sell signals since October 26, 2007 and 33-buy signals since October
31, 2008.
In addition
to the buy signal, the Mid-term
Indicant is signaling hold for only 23 of the 344-stocks and funds tracked
by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average
of 101.8%. That annualizes to 76.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has been
signaling hold for these 23-stocks and funds for an average of 69.1-weeks.
In addition
to sell signals, the Mid-term
Indicant is avoiding 310-stocks and funds of the 344- tracked by the
Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 36.5% since
the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 35.5-weeks ago.
The Mid-term
Indicant is avoiding ninety-nine of the 100-Mutual Funds tracked, except
for the ETF’s tracked daily. The ninety-nine funds are down an average of
37.8% since their sell signals an average of 32.4-weeks ago. The Mid-term
Indicant signaled, buy, for contrarian
MF#22-USPIX Ultra Short.
One year ago,
on Jan 25, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 149-stocks and funds
out of the 345 tracked for an average of 156.0-weeks. They were up by an
average of 173.9% (annualized at 58.0%). There were 192-avoided stocks and
funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of
13.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 13.5-weeks
earlier.
The Mid-term
Indicant was signaling hold for 307-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked
two years ago on Jan 26, 2007. They were up by an average of 107.2%
(annualized at 60.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of
92.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 31-stocks and funds
at that time. They were down an average of 12.8% since their respective
sell signals an average of 21.3-weeks earlier.
There were
280-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jan 27, 2006 since their buy
signals an average of 92.3-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of
118.7% (annualized at 66.9%). There were 58-avoided stocks and funds at
that time. They were down by an average of 8.7% from their respective sell
signals an average of 19.3-weeks earlier.
On Jan 21,
2005, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 230-stocks and funds
out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 88.6% (annualized at
64.4%) since their buy signals an average of 71.4-weeks earlier. The
Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 85-stocks and funds at that time. They were
down by an average of 27.5% since their sell signals an average of
48.7-weeks earlier.
Five years
ago, on Jan 23, 2004, there were 288-hold signals for stocks and funds out
of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an
average of 68.6% (annualized at 92.9%) since their respective buy signals
an average of 38.4-weeks earlier. There were only eight-avoided stocks and
funds then. They were down an average of 28.7% since their respective sell
signals an average of 41.4-weeks earlier.
On Jan 25,
2003, there were 194-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing
of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an
average of 22.0%, annualizing at 61.2%. There were seven avoided stocks
and funds then. They were down by an average of 24.0% since their sell
signals an average of 18.7-weeks earlier.
Summary of
Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week
To maintain
appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals
for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is
in the member’s only section.
Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.
As repeatedly
stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single
stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only
love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management
stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.
All updated
information can be accessed from the following link. You will need your
login ID and password.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Comments
about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend
The heart and
soul of bullish seasonality expired last Tuesday. The Near-term Indicant
signaled bear for the major indices and several ETF’s. The Mid-term
Indicant never generated a buy signal during the 2008-2009 heart and soul
of bullish seasonality. The November 28, 2008 Near-term Bull was lazy and
never gained traction. Utilities continue with bearish resistance, but
offering no bullish support. That index could continue to waiver
aimlessly, but will most likely succumb to the bear.
Click the
following link that will take you to the tangential protection charts.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm
The
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report
The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on
an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website
for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market
report for the last trading day of each week is imbedded in this weekly
report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for
much longer than the last twelve months.
The Daily
Indicant Stock Market Report for the last trading day of the current week
is near the conclusion of this weekly stock market report. It is emailed
each weekend, separately, so you can read it, either as a separate
document, or in this document.
The
Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend
The Dow is up
10.9% since its secular low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 32.6% and
the S&P500 is up 7.1% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 26.9%
since October 9, 2002.
The Dow is
down 43.0% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ
is down 48.3% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600 is down
47.5% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007.
The NASDAQ is
down 70.7% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500
is down 45.5% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is
down by 31.1% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s
roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be
surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.
As socialism
increases with coerced benevolence by politicians, the NASDAQ may not hit
its 2000 peak until after 2050. Even that depends on resurgence in
entrepreneurialism and related capitalism. Politicians screwed up the
economy and the masses will believe their fixes. Yes, the masses, for the
most part, are weak and stupid. It just depends on what critical mass
believes the lies and what critical mass keeps moving forward with
progressive capitalism.
The Dow is
down 5.6% so far this year. The NASDAQ is down 3.0% this year. Keep in
mind the post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since
1832.
The heart and
soul of bullish seasonality expired this past week. It “disappointed” and
there is little time remaining for it to shift the paradigm of
disappointment.
The NASDAQ
year-to-date performance was bullish by 15.0% through this week in 2001.
Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%., which was congruent
with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.
The NASDAQ was
down by 1.4% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic
bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%.
The bear cycle found bottom in 2002, which is consistent with the mid-term
year’s historical standards.
The NASDAQ YTD
2003 performance was up by 4.0%. It finished up in that solidly bullish
year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year
results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 6.0%, which was congruent
with election year bullishness although shy of magnitude standards. It
was down by 6.5% in 2005’s post election year, which maintained congruency
to the historical standards of losses. Many of you recall that 2004 and
2005 were meandering bear markets. In 2006, it was up 2.0% on this weekend
and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency
of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 0.7%
at this time in 2007 and finished that year up by 9.8%, which was
consistent with pre-election year bullishness. It was down 12.7% at this
time last year. The NASDAQ finished down 40.5% in 2008. That was
contrarian performance to historical election year bullishness and the
most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.
So far, in
this post election year, the Dow is down 7.5%. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are
also down by 8.8% and 12.7%, respectively.
Keep your eye
on the daily stock market report.
Stop Loss
Management
The Mid-term
Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 10% due to increasing bearish
influences for your longer-term holdings. The Short-term and Mid-term
Indicant are now signaling bear.
If your stock
or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set
your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing
stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop
loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is
greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at
the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 10% trailing stop loss.
If you are up
by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund,
then use a 20% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If
you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management.
Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely
for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish
spending and excessive concerns about social issues. Those types are more
interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making
you money. High performing companies remain focused on honoring the
investments made by their shareholders.
In a few
instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down
from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If
you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and
funds with those “bearish” attributes. They are configured for a possible
rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses
mentioned in this report. Use the Quick-term Indicant as a guide in your
decision-making processes. If the stock price is falling in a Quick-term
Bear market, it is not advisable to buy.
Do not short
on stocks if they are up from an avoid signal. Stocks go up more often
than they go down. Stocks have a tendency to march to their own drumbeat
when rising. Some stocks rise and continue to rise in the most severe of
bear markets. Short selling opens up an opportunity for the snakes on Wall
Street to take everything you own. They can cause a stock to rise at their
whim and without any regard to fundamental reason. It usually does not
make sense to bet against the sweat and toil of hard-working people.
Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates
Click the
above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.
There is no
change from the past two weeks. Interest rates remain at record low
levels. That normally fosters a bullish stock market. Unfortunately,
souring economic conditions at an accelerating rate have reduced the
normal bullish relationship to low interest rates as irrelevant. Although
rates are low, the process of borrowing money is not a capitalistic
relationship between borrower and seller and thus irrelevant to the
capital markets. This is especially true when lending is too low.
The U.S.
dollar strengthened last week and thus supporting its bullish cycle. The
U.S. dollar remains strong, as the U.S. economy is perceived to have the
greatest chance of returning to robustness when compared to other
countries. As stated last week, the exception to this is China, who may or
may not need U.S. consumption to bolster their economy. A weakening dollar
against the Yuan may enjoy a longer-term labor relationship with the West.
However, the stock market is focused only on the next six to nine months.
Commodities
bearish cycle continues even with recent vacillations in commodity prices.
That volatility is common during major directional cyclical shifts. As
stated the past three weeks, prior deflationary concerns have paused with
vacillating commodity prices.
As stated
fourteen weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are
complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with some gusto.
This is not technical. This is fundamental.
As stated
eleven weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will
be followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the
highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by
2010.”
As stated
eight weeks ago, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near
expiration. Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from
time to time, but the trend should remain bearish throughout the next year
and into 2010. Bullish spurts will occur from time to time. As we learned
from the November 28, 2008 – January 21, 2009 bullish spurt, profit
potential from them is limited and in some cases disappoint rather
rapidly.
Fear
Metrics: Economics and Terrorism
Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its
April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on
October 3, 2008. It is down 45.1% since that sell signal. It has been
bearish in four of the last five weeks.
Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is down 16.3% since the Midterm Indicant
signaled sell on August 1, 2008. It was solidly bullish last week.
Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term
Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3,
2008. It is down 25.6% since that sell signal. It was also bearish the
past three weeks.
Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term
Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on
October 3, 2008. It is down 42.3% since that sell signal.
State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August
16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It
is down 54.6% since that sell signal.
Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant
signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3,
2008. It is down 25.0% since that sell signal.
Energy related
funds were mixed last week following two solidly bearish weeks. They have
endured significant bearishness in 17 of the last 24-weeks. The energy
industry will not be bullish as long as politicians are trying to run it.
The North American automotive industry will be weak for years to come as
long as government is loaning money to dilettante managers. The quality of
the products, regardless if fuel-efficient or not, will deteriorate. If
you want to buy a car for your young daughter, do not buy American.
The Near-term
Indicant signaled, sell, for
ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on January 20, 2009. It is up
6.8% since that sell signal. The Quick-term Indicant continues to signal
avoid since September 2, 2008. It is down 33.8% since then. It was up
242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26,
2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.
The Near-term
Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the
GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 9.8% since that buy signal.
It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8,
2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to
26.0%.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices
There were no new bull signals and no
bear signals.
The Mid-term
Indicant signaled bear for all ten indices this weekend, even though the
Dow Utilities has not yet acquiesced to bearish ambition on a near-term
basis.
Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.
The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at
$28,672,720
That beats buy
and hold performance of $1,228,900 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow
stocks in 1900. The
MTI S&P500 is at $136,181. That beats buy and hold’s $81,492 on a
December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The
MTI-NASDAQ is at $179,765. That beats buy and hold’s $51,224 on an
October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy
and hold by 2,233.2%, 67.1%, and 250.9%, respectively, for these indices
as of this past week.
The Indicant’s
percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull
signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because
the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the MTI-RYS model avoids
bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid
the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000%
covering the past 100+ years.
Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks
Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks
Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks
Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks
Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds
Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.
The Mid-term
Indicant signaled buy for
ProFunds Ultra Short on January 23, 2009. The expiration of the
Near-term Bull last week, coupled with a Quick-term Bear for the major
indices, suggests this fund should be bullish. It will perform the same as
QID.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds
Always
remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good
way to mix your investments.
Long Term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average
The blue-chip
Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991.
Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles
since 1920.
The Dow is up
179.1% (annualized at 10.4%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull
899-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term
Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest
rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. A
link to the Long-term Indicant is below:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm
Short-term
Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
As stated
last Wednesday, the dynamic bullish behavior was without substance. There
are very few attributes offering bullish inspiration at this time on a
near-term, quick-term, or short-term basis.
Near-term,
Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
DJIA
01/23/09-Fri-Same as yesterday. The Near-term Indicant will not consider a
bull signal until Force Vectors cross into bullish domains (above Red X on
the bottom of the chart) and the index value is greater than either of the
Near-term’s bull or bear curve. The behavior of the market when Force
Vector’s interact with Vector Pressure will offer some enhanced obviations
of directional intensity. Right now, the bias is bearish since Vector
Pressure is sloping to the southeast. 01/22/09-Thu-There is no floor
preventing bearish ambition. The only element of a bullish nature is
Vector Pressure’s position in the neutral zone. It is moving south
offering no solace for those desiring bullish dominance. The bear is free
to roam. 01/21/09-Wed-The only non-bearish attribute is Vector Pressure
not yet positioned in bearish domains. Its slope is moving southeast on
the charts and headed in that direction. Until more attributes support
bullish directional intensity, this is a Near-term Bear. 01/20/09-Tue-The
Near-term Indicant signaled bear today. There is no floor to impede
bearish ambition on a near-term basis. 01/19/09-Mon-Market closed-holiday.
01/16/09-Fri-This index along with most of the others continue resisting
bearish dominance at Near-term Indicant’s bearish green curve. Today’s
mild bullishness was a very weak bullish response; enough so to continue
with the Near-term Bull signal, but also with a warning regarding this
bull’s weak nature. Do not be surprised at this Near-term Bull cycle
expiring within a few days. Keep in mind the significantly mature Force
Vector continues to configure in support of additional bullish responses,
regardless of magnitude. The Near-term Indicant continues signaling bull
on that basis even though most of the near-term attributes are favoring
the bear.
DJ Composites
01/23/09-Fri-Same as DJIA. 01/22/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 01/21/09-Wed-Same as
DJIA. 01/20/09-Tue- The Near-term Indicant signaled bear today. There is
no floor to impede bearish ambition on a near-term basis.
01/19/09-Mon-Market closed-holiday. 01/16/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
DJ Transports
01/23/09-Fri-Same as DJIA. 01/22/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 01/21/09-Wed- Same
as DJIA. 01/20/09-Tue- The Near-term Indicant signaled bear today. There
is no floor to impede bearish ambition on a near-term basis.
01/19/09-Mon-Market closed-holiday. 01/16/09-Fri- Same as DJIA.
DJ Utilities
01/23/09-Fri-This index is preventing bearish unanimity by vacillating
between the Near-term bullish and bearish curves. Vector Pressure is near
a maximum, lending to increasing probabilities of bearish behavior.
However, the Near-term Indicant will not signal bear until Force Vectors
fall into bearish domains and the index value is less than Near-term
bearish green curve. 01/22/09-Thu-This is the only index offering
resistance to the bear. It will likely succumb to bearish ambition in the
near future. However, until it demonstrates submission to the bear, the
Near-term Indicant will continue to signal bull. 01/21/09-Wed-This remains
as the only major index containing attributes in support of the Near-term
Bull. As stated in the past this bull is a weakling. Although it remains
possible for it to transform from an “ugly duckling” to a beautiful swan
(strong bull), the probability is low. Until attributes support bearish
directional intensity, it remains a Near-term Bull, albeit a weak one.
01/20/09-Tue-The Near-term Bull continues to persist and therefore no bear
signal today. 01/19/09-Mon-Market closed-holiday. 01/16/09-Fri- Utilities
continues to be the strongest bull of the major indices. Even with that,
its Near-term Bull is pathetic and with little pizzazz. You should notice
its Force Vector cycle is in the neutral zone by a very small margin. Also
the index has not yet fallen to the Near-term Indicant’s bearish green
curve. This index is very influential in the continuation of the Near-term
Bull cycle now underway.
NASDAQ
01/23/09-Fri-Same as DJIA. 01/22/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 01/21/09-Wed-Same as
DJIA. 01/20/09-Tue- The Near-term Indicant signaled bear today. There is
no floor to impede bearish ambition on a near-term basis.
01/19/09-Mon-Market closed-holiday. 01/16/09-Fri- Same as DJIA.
NASDAQ100
01/23/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/22/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 01/21/09-Wed- Same as DJIA.
01/20/09-Tue- The Near-term Indicant signaled bear today. There is no
floor to impede bearish ambition on a near-term basis. 01/19/09-Mon-Market
closed-holiday. 01/16/09-Fri- Same as DJIA.
S&P500
01/23/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/22/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 01/21/09-Wed- Same as DJIA.
01/20/09-Tue- The Near-term Indicant signaled bear today. There is no
floor to impede bearish ambition on a near-term basis. 01/19/09-Mon-Market
closed-holiday. 01/16/09-Fri- Same as DJIA.
S&P100
01/23/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/22/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 01/21/09-Wed- Same as DJIA.
01/20/09-Tue- The Near-term Indicant signaled bear today. There is no
floor to impede bearish ambition on a near-term basis. 01/19/09-Mon-Market
closed-holiday. 01/16/09-Fri- Same as DJIA.
S&P400
01/23/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/22/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 01/21/09-Wed- Same as DJIA except
it is not yet configured strongly in favor of bearish directional
intensity. 01/20/09-Tue- The Near-term Indicant signaled bear today. There
is no floor to impede bearish ambition on a near-term basis.
01/19/09-Mon-Market closed-holiday. 01/16/09-Fri- Same as DJIA.
S&P600
01/23/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/22/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 01/21/09-Wed- Same as DJIA.
01/20/09-Tue- The Near-term Indicant signaled bear today. There is no
floor to impede bearish ambition on a near-term basis. 01/19/09-Mon-Market
closed-holiday. 01/16/09-Fri- Same as DJIA.
NYSE
01/23/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/22/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 01/21/09-Wed- Same as DJIA.
01/20/09-Tue- The Near-term Indicant signaled bear today. There is no
floor to impede bearish ambition on a near-term basis. 01/19/09-Mon-Market
closed-holiday. 01/16/09-Fri- Same as DJIA.
VIX (Market Contrarian)
01/23/09-Fri-Force Vector needs to cool (move south). It should bounce
violently to the north in a few days when in again interacts with Vector
Pressure. That is a bearish prognosis for the overall stock market. If
Force Vectors crash below Vector Pressure, a dampening effect on stock
market bearishness will unfold. 01/22/09-Thu-Although Force Vectors are
bullishly mature, Vector Pressure is rising, which favors a bearish stock
market. 01/21/09-Wed-Remains configured in support of a bearish stock
market due to its Near-term Bullish nature. 01/20/09-Tue-The Near-term
Indicant signaled bull today. Encouraging this was Force Vector holding in
bullish domains. Although the Force Vector cycle is mature, Vector
Pressure will resist falling into bearish domains and thus a VIX bullish
bias, which facilitates overall stock market bearishness.
01/19/09-Mon-Market closed-holiday. 01/16/09-Fri-Same as yesterday. Its
Force Vector cycle is too hot to continue. It needs to cool and that could
facilitate overall stock market bullishness.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled bear for ten of the 11-major indices last
Tuesday. The lone bull, Dow Utilities, is struggling and it is down 2.8%
since the bull signal 57-calendar days ago.
The tour is
still being developed but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles.
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bear last Tuesday for both the NYSE and
NASDAQ. Although the bull responded with some gusto last Wednesday, the
bear signal remains firmly in tact. There is no evidence of bullish
potential right now.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
The NYSE and
NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators strongly supported a continuation of the
bear last Tuesday. Although there was an equal level of bullish support on
Wednesday’s volume, too many attributes favor the bear in spite of
Tuesday’s dynamic bullish expression. Bearish to flat behavior on Thursday
and Friday are supportive of no bullish ambition. Thursday’s bearish
response, coupled with an increasing Volume Indicator, is ominous.
Short-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
The Near-term
Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The Near-term
Indicant is signaling hold for six ETF’s. They are up by an average of
3.0%, annualizing at 24.2% since their buy signals an average of 6.5-weeks
ago. The NTI is avoiding 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 1.8% since
their sell signals an average of 0.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant did not generate any buy or sell signals today.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for only four ETF’s. They are up
93.0% since their buy signals 15.2-weeks ago. 27-ETF’s are down 38.4%
since their sell signals an average of 25.8-weeks ago.
Do not be
surprised at bearish resistance to ETF’s crossing above the Quick-term
bearish yellow curve. We are several weeks, if not months, away from that
occurring for most of these ETF’s. Also, do not expect a continuance to
Bullish Red Curves and beyond. The Near-term Indicant will help you make
short-term assessments of holding or avoiding.
Most of the
regular Mutual Funds received sell signals in late 2007 and in early 2008.
As you know, all 100-Mutual Funds have been avoided since their sell
signals several weeks/months ago. That avoidance was triggered by the
Mid-term Indicant.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds.
As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points
since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell late last year and earlier this
year. The Mid-term Indicant will be updated this weekend with a link to
the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
The Near-term
Indicant is more aggressive in buying and selling, while the Mid-term
Indicant is much more passive. The Quick-term Indicant is somewhere in
between the two models.
Many of you
notice some uncharacteristic yellow bear buy signals for about half of the
ETF’s that were quickly followed with sell signals during October and
early November. The other half of the ETF’s followed the strict rule of
not buying yellow bears.
The Near-term
Indicant has been developed to provide greater visibility of this sort of
activity on the same charts as the Quick-term Indicant, as opposed to the
two charts. Now, the Quick-term, Near-term, and Short-term expressions are
contained on a single chart for each of the ETF’s, as opposed to the
previous three separate charts.
Clicking the
following link will take you to a table that contains both the Near-term
and Quick-term Indicants. It is for members only as it contains buy and
sell signals each day. You will notice the red and yellow bearish curves
are the same as the previous Quick-term Indicant model. In other words
those attributes are the same as before. However, the difference is the
strict adherence to avoiding yellow bears; especially if Vector Pressure
is in bearish domains.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Current
Strategy-Short-term Indicant –
Jan 23, 2009-Fri-Declining Vector Pressure supports bearish ambition.
Force Vectors are bearishly mature and should offer a dampening effect on
any bearish potential. So, on a Short-term and Near-term basis, do not
expect any sustainable bullish behavior. Jan 22, 2009-Thu-Force Vectors
are in a mature bearish cycle. That allows for bullish to non-bearish
behavior, but do not be fooled. The bear is dominant. Declining Vector
Pressure is a major focal point at this time and the are configuring in
complete and absolute support of the bear. Jan 21, 2009-Wed-Today’s
bullish expression did nothing to support a new bullish cycle. Continue
investing with a bias that recognizes the Near-term Bear. Jan 20,
2009-Tue-There were several Near-term sell signals today. Most of them
have no flow to impede bearish ambition. Fundamentally, there is no reason
to expect bullishness. Nearly all bullishly supporting attributes expired
today. Selling tactics should be aggressive, since there is no Near-term
floor to stop the bear. Jan 19, 2009-Mon-Market closed due to holiday. Jan
16, 2009-Fri-Do not buy and continue holding with the idea many Near-term
sell signals will most likely occur in the next few days. If the Near-term
Bull now underway gains some traction, then holding will remain
appropriate. That desired traction is unlikely due to the pitiful and
anemic nature of the Near-term bullish cycle.
Near-term
and Quick-term Summary
The bearish
bias originating on September 5, 2008 expired on November 4 and replaced
with a new bullish bias on November 28, 2008. That bullish bias expired on
January 20, 2009 in favor of a new bearish bias. The “heart and soul” of
bullish seasonality also expired last Tuesday (not yesterday as
erroneously stated).
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF
cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. It is excluded from overall ETF statistics
because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during
bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This exclusion is required
for convergent/divergent monitoring.
The former
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID on November 21, 2008. It was down 33.7% on Friday, Dec 26, 2008
since that sell signal. It continues to be down considerably since then.
The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on January 20, 2009. You will notice
the Quick-term Indicant in
the table adhered to the yellow bear rule and has not yet
signaled sell. Keep in mind the older model has been avoiding, but it was
okay to buy with the Near-term buy signal from January 20, 2009.
Its Force
Vector remains somewhat friendly to it falling in price, but do not argue
with its Vector Pressure. It is rising and that is bullish for this ETF.
Other
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources - This ETF was down 39.5% since the
Quick-term Indicant sell signal on July 24, 2008, as December 29, 2008. As
you can see from the table, the QTI adhered strictly to the yellow bear
rule with a buy and sell signal after July 24, 2008. The yellow bear rule
had it signal sell on September 2, 2008 and it is down 33.1% since then.
As previously stated, the Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until
Vector Pressure is positive and Yellow Bear expires. The Near-term
Indicant signaled sell for this ETF on January 20, 2009.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 9.8% since the NTI and QTI
signaled buy on December 11, 20008. It is annualized at 81.8% since then.
It was aggressively bullish today. Although Force Vector is rising, Vector
Pressure is flattening. Do not be surprised at a sell signal in the next
few days. The primary attribute driving that prognosis will be confirmed
when price falls to or below green and the Near-term bullish blue curve
collapses. Friday’s bullish aggression delayed the impending sell signal.
ETF#14-Long Government is up 13.4% since the NTI buy signal on Nov
17, 2008. (Thursday’s report erroneously stated this performance level).
This is annualizing at 72.1%, which will not manifest. This Near-term
Indicant bullish blue curve collapsed today (Friday, January 23, 2009).
The Near-term is threatening to signal sell, but please continue reading.
We’re going
to hold unless it becomes a Yellow Bear. However, it is not configured
favorably to additional buying. Just hold it if you own it if bought on
the NTI signal or the previous QTI buy signal on November 17, 2008.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Divergence
versus Convergence
The
combination of bearish convergence and bearish divergence the past five
weeks solidly supports a bearish bias.
Indicant
Conclusion
There were
again no Mid-term Indicant buy signals for non-contrarian Mutual Funds.
All 99-mutual funds are with avoid signals. Those funds tracked by the
Mid-term Indicant are down by an average of 37.8% since their sell signals
an average of 32.4-weeks ago. Although the Quick-term and Short-term
Indicant models are holding a few of the ETF’s, the Mid-term Indicant will
not signal buy for most of the Mutual Funds until they remove themselves
from bearish domains. Current configurations suggest it could a year or
longer for that to occur.
As stated the
past 11-weeks, interest rates are falling, which is bullish. Oil prices
continue resting at relatively low levels. Those two elements, alone, are
typically enough to stimulate bullish activity. The November 28, 2008
bullish spurt never garnished enough traction to sustain follow-on
bullishness. It expired this past week. That is more significant than low
oil prices or low interest rates.
Although
commodity prices have been stable the past several weeks, deflation
remains as an increasing concern. If it manifests, a 2500 Dow by 2010/11
may be optimistic. The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant are offering no
arguments to that bearish prognosis.
Keep up with
the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift
quickly.
Do not get
lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to
enjoy hold signals.
The daily
updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Hyperlinks
To access all
major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click
the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are
inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on
the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way
back.
Happy
Investing,
www.indicant.net
01/25/09
January 18,
2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report
Volume 1, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The
Indicant Stock Market Report
This Week’s
Report
The Wrong
Folks Are Handling the Money
Categorizations among relationships can be tricky. When done wrongly, the
error cascades into numerous other errors. That makes the source of error
more difficult to identify. Here is an example of categorizing human
beings.
History
suggests there are three broad groups that relate to economic development;
1) capitalists, 2) soldiers, and 3) everyone else. As stated in prior
reports, look around your house at the objects that provide you pleasure
and happiness. Capitalist provided them. Soldiers and everyone else did
not do that. However, the culminating effort of soldiers provided
capitalistic opportunity. So, indirectly, soldiers contributed to your
enjoyment of your possessions. For example, if allied soldiers lost World
War II and you are an American Jew, you would most likely have never been
born.
There have
been many wars since the beginning. One group of human beings, for
whatever reason, desires to destroy another group of human beings. That
phenomenon has repeated consistently throughout history. The conflict can
arise out of cultural differences, economic disparity, a lack of trust,
and thousands of other reasons; mostly irrational and nonsensical. It is
usually a conflict among political establishment as opposed to among the
masses from both groups.
Over the long
run, the right groups of soldiers have won more than they lost. Since most
of us live in freedom, we know this to be true; that is, good has been
victorious more so than bad. That underlying thought assumes freedom is
good. History suggests more smiley faces with free people. That assumes
smiley faces as being better than frownie faces. Common sense suggests
that is a truth. Most people around the world want that, but a significant
number of them do not understand how it is developed. Their ignorance
fosters their frownie faces and related pain and anguish.
The group,
called everyone else, leech off the capitalist. Keep in mind the average
CEO of Fortune500 companies are not capitalist. They are hirelings who
asked for a job, which is somewhat of a socialistic mannerism. Their
employer, who are or were capitalist already setup the business, the
processes, etc. There are some exceptions to this where the hireling is
like a capitalist and possibly of equal competence to that of a successful
capitalist. However, there are very few of them; most are dilettantes.
The dilettante
phenomenon has been increasingly visible since the Bill Clinton/Enron era.
Lying, stealing, cheating, etc. is what dilettantes do. We have seen this
phenomenon increasing at an accelerating rate. The idiots of Wall Street
and major lending institutions have demonstrated that with unbelievable
acts of stupidity. Their tight connectivity to the political establishment
is a clear indication of a growing attempt to exacerbate economic classes
of the populace. In essence, the mantra appears to be bent on bringing the
rich down closer to the poor. All that will do is make the poor poorer.
Politicians
are constantly trying to create a large block of votes. Being poor is a
lot easier than being rich. That is why the population of poor folks far
exceeds the population of rich folks. Since poor folks are bigger in
numbers and votes, that is who politicians placate. Unfortunately, poor
folks are not the brightest bunch and thus believe the nonsensical jibber
jabber that flows unrelentingly from nonsensical political mouths.
Thus, all
democracies eventually fall into tyranny by the majority. Over a long
period, the system collapses and freedoms are lost. Frownie faces gain in
numbers and eventually the masses look at the leadership as the cause of
their problems. With that, the leadership is eliminated and the process
starts all over.
The average
Fortune 500 employee is also not a capitalist. They, like their CEO boss,
sought the security of largeness and were merely hired. There are some;
actually quite a few, who are extraordinarily competent and foster
profound gains in efficiencies and effectiveness. It is not known if that
subset of employees of over 50%. Right now, it must be less since the
capital stocks are down.
Capitalist are
a small group of people who take risks. For the most part, they simply
engage in activities that provides them pleasure. Some succeed for their
lust of money, but most succeed by virtue of enjoying a vocation that
consumers find very appealing. Some get rich, while others do not.
Regardless of the wealth generated, both the rich group and the poor group
of capitalist are equally happy for they are able to pursue a vocation
that provides them pleasure. In state run organizations, the volume of
people who are able to engage in their vocational pleasure are minimized
and thus more frownie faces among the masses.
Capitalist
eventually die like the rest of us. However, their efforts, such as
Edison’s light bulb, continue well beyond their physical lives. The
hirelings arrive to perpetuate the capitalist’s business and with each
generation of those hirelings, the dilettante population grows. Those
dilettantes eventually destroy the business. Dilettantes are not bad
people. They simply do not understand the hard effort that was required to
create what they manage. Their ignorance is the source of the problem.
When performance becomes embarrassing, many will do anything to hide it,
such as Enron, Bears Stearns, World Com, etc. Just low life liars and
cheaters; scumbags if you will.
All government
employees and politicians are in the group of “everyone else.” They tax
the capitalist, soldiers, and everyone else. Politicians even tax
themselves, but more than offset that with fringe benefits. It is no
longer a government of the people, by the people, for the people. The
political system has devolved to that of a collection system for the
elite. The elite, by default, support socialism. There is a smaller risk
of being displaced by a hungry capitalist with a better idea than what
they have. Do not pay attention to really rich or famous people. They are
only trying to protect what they have.
With that tax,
roads and bridges are built. That allows some of us to drive our cars. As
many of you know, the roads and bridges are not expressions of maximum
efficiency. As many of you can see, all construction and lane capacity is
well behind the demand curve. That inefficiency is an expression of
limited planning abilities, which arises from the zero risk of error on
the part of government and politicians. In other words, when the “everyone
else group” errs, they personally did not incur the consequences of those
errors. Therefore, every decision or activity they execute will be
inferior to that of the capitalist.
Who got fired
or became destitute when the bridge in Minnesota collapsed? Rest assured,
the source of the problem was among the “everyone else group.” It was a
person who did not do their job. And not doing their job, by default, was
riskless to them on a personal basis. Whoever it was is among those who
move blissfully through life without risk. And without the risk, there can
be no reward. This logic is undeniably accurate. Now we have billions upon
billions flowing through the hands of those who are enduring zero risks.
Rest assured there will be no rewards.
We have the
“everyone else” group processing billions and possibly trillions of
dollars into the economy. Rest assured the flow of that money will
epitomize the words, “inefficiency, “ineffectiveness”, and “ineptness.”
There is an increasing probability of Mexicanizing the political system
where collusion and corruption can manifest very easily since the flowing
dollars are not with personal risks.
For example,
the auto loan bailout to Detroit will find long-term disappointments. The
“everyone else group” of government, politicians, and Detroit dilettante
managers are processing the money. The government just touching money
taints it right off the bat. Then providing that tainted money to those
dilettante managers, who lost market share and billions of dollars will
only expand the inefficient use of that money.
The everyone
else group, who includes all professional economists, is assuming the
recession will last for a short period and then all will be well. That
will not be the case since the “everyone else group” is controlling a vast
segment of the economy. Capitalist built the economy. Henry Ford, Walter
P. Chrysler and Alfred P. Sloan created and embellished the automobile
industry and in the process created profound economic wealth. The
“everyone else group” just followed along. Now, you have all those
followers controlling all that money. That, in a nutshell, is why you need
to start thinking about a 2500 Dow in the next few years.
The economy
cannot be managed. It never could, but the intellectuals want you to think
that way. The economy is simply a phenomenon that occurs when capitalist
do what they enjoy doing. Sometimes capacity gets ahead of capacity
requirements and recessions manifests, but nothing resets the
supply/demand equilibrium back to where it should be more efficiently than
capitalist. Governmental and political intervention slows the process and
invites profound inefficiencies.
As stated many
times here, capitalist produce products of appeal, while socialists
generate intellectual observation; the latter of which, provides zero
economic wealth. You hear “intellectual observation” on the radio and
television. They are intent on accentuating their self-actualization and
offering nothing in the way of value; economic or otherwise. A large
portion of the masses listen to that gibberish, believe it, and act upon
that stupidity. The real capitalists are too busy being hard at work to
even listen. Their hard working effort is viewed with disdain by the
“everyone else group.”
Keep your eye
on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate
sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity
underway.
Weekly
Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant
Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply
scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.
The Mid-term
Indicant generated no buy signals and three sell signals. There have been
521-sell signals since October 26, 2007 and 32-buy signals since October
31, 2008.
Although
there were no buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for only 33 of the 344-stocks
and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals
are up an average of 59.1%. That annualizes to 61.7%. The Mid-term
Indicant has been signaling hold for these 33-stocks and funds for an
average of 49.8-weeks.
In addition
to sell signals, the Mid-term
Indicant is avoiding 308-stocks and funds of the 344- tracked by the
Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 35.4% since
the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 34.9-weeks ago.
The Mid-term
Indicant is avoiding all Mutual Funds, except for the ETF’s tracked daily.
All one-hundred funds are down an average of 34.9% since their sell
signals an average of 31.2-weeks ago. Even though a bullish spurt is
possible, the Mid-term Indicant will be more conservative before signaling
buy for these funds. Bearish yellow must be toppled first.
One year ago,
on Jan 18, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 152-stocks and funds
out of the 345 tracked for an average of 153.3-weeks. They were up by an
average of 167.2% (annualized at 56.7%). There were 173-avoided stocks and
funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of
17.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 14.8-weeks
earlier.
The Mid-term
Indicant was signaling hold for 313-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked
two years ago on Jan 19, 2007. They were up by an average of 105.8%
(annualized at 60.6%) since their respective buy signals an average of
90.9-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 32-stocks and funds
at that time. They were down an average of 13.5% since their respective
sell signals an average of 21.2-weeks earlier.
There were
292-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jan 20, 2006 since their buy
signals an average of 93.1-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of
116.9% (annualized at 65.3%). There were 52-avoided stocks and funds at
that time. They were down by an average of 11.4% from their respective
sell signals an average of 24.7-weeks earlier.
On Jan 14,
2005, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 236-stocks and funds
out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 86.7% (annualized at
65.9%) since their buy signals an average of 68.4-weeks earlier. The
Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 15-stocks and funds at that time. They were
down by an average of 41.1% since their sell signals an average of
61.1-weeks earlier.
Five years
ago, on Jan 17, 2004, there were 288-hold signals for stocks and funds out
of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an
average of 67.5% (annualized at 93.8%) since their respective buy signals
an average of 37.4-weeks earlier. There were only eight-avoided stocks and
funds then. They were down an average of 28.9% since their respective sell
signals an average of 37.4-weeks earlier.
On Jan 18,
2003, there were 289-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing
of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an
average of 19.6%, annualizing at 63.4%. There were six avoided stocks and
funds then. They were down by an average of 33.8% since their sell signals
an average of 25.8-weeks earlier.
Summary of
Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week
To maintain
appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals
for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is
in the member’s only section.
Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.
As repeatedly
stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single
stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only
love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management
stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.
All updated
information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the
below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Comments
about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend
Even though
Quick-term and Short-term configurations are increasingly supporting the
heart and soul of bullish seasonality, the Mid-term Indicant may not
participate in much buying. Longer-term elements are not bullish even if
the heart and soul of bullish seasonality produces exciting bullish
configurations.
There is only
one to two weeks remaining for the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.
So far, this historical standard has been disappointing. However,
configurations still support it, albeit a bit shaky.
Click the
following link that will take you to the tangential protection charts.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm
The
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report
The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on
an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website
for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market
report for the last trading day of each week is imbedded in this weekly
report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for
much longer than the last twelve months.
The Daily
Indicant Stock Market Report for the last trading day of the current week
is near the conclusion of this weekly stock market report. It is emailed
each weekend, separately, so you can read it, either as a separate
document, or in this document.
The
Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend
The Dow is up
13.7% since its secular low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 37.3% and
the S&P500 is up 9.4% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up
45.2%.
The Dow is
down 41.5% since its last closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down
46.5% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600 is down 44.3% since
its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007.
The NASDAQ is
down 69.7% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500
is down 44.3% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is
down by 29.4% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s
roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be
surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.
As socialism
increases with coerced benevolence by politicians, the NASDAQ may not hit
its 2000 peak until after 2050. Even that depends on resurgence in
entrepreneurialism and related capitalism. Politicians screwed up the
economy and the masses will believe their fixes. Yes, the masses, for the
most part, are weak and stupid. It just depends on what critical mass
believes the lies and what critical mass keeps moving forward with
progressive capitalism.
The Dow is
down 5.6% so far this year. The NASDAQ is down 3.0% this year. Keep in
mind the post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since
1832.
As stated for
several weeks, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality is again
attempting to configure. It, so far, has disappointed and there is little
time remaining for it to shift the paradigm of disappointment.
The NASDAQ
year-to-date performance was bullish by 6.0% through this week in 2001.
Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%., which was congruent
with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.
The NASDAQ was
down by 0.3% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic
bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%.
The bear cycle found bottom in 2002, which is consistent with the mid-term
year’s historical standards.
The NASDAQ YTD
2003 performance was up by 6.6%. It finished up in that solidly bullish
year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year
results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 6.8%, which was congruent
with election year bullishness although shy of magnitude standards. It
was down by 4.5% in 2005’s post election year, which maintained congruency
to the historical standards of losses. Many of you recall that 2004 and
2005 were meandering bear markets. In 2006, it was up 5.1% on this weekend
and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency
of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 3.4%
at this time in 2007 and finished that year up by 9.8%, which was
consistent with pre-election year bullishness. It was down 9.7% at this
time last year. The NASDAQ finished down 40.5% in 2008. That was
contrarian performance to historical election year bullishness and the
most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.
So far, in
this post election year, the Dow is down 5.6%. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are
also down by 5.9% and 3.0%, respectively.
Keep your eye
on the daily stock market report.
Stop Loss
Management
The Mid-term
Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 10% due to increasing bearish
influences for your longer-term holdings. The Mid-term Indicant will be
passive in generating buy signals even with the support of a Quick-term
bull cycle. The longer-term attributes remain configured in support of the
bear. The Near-term attributes are weakening in their support of the
Near-term Bull and thus the reason for the elevation in stop losses for
your longer-term holdings. The trick is to prevent “stopping out” in the
event the Near-term Bull manifests into a significant degree of
sustainability.
If your stock
or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set
your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing
stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop
loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is
greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at
the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 10% trailing stop loss.
If you are up
by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund,
then use a 20% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If
you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management.
Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely
for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish
spending and excessive concerns about social issues. Those types are more
interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making
you money. High performing companies remain focused on honoring the
investments made by their shareholders.
In a few
instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down
from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If
you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and
funds with those “bearish” attributes. They are configured for a possible
rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses
mentioned in this report. Use the Quick-term Indicant as a guide in your
decision-making processes. If the stock price is falling in a Quick-term
Bear market, it is not advisable to buy.
Do not short
on stocks if they are up from an avoid signal. Stocks go up more often
than they go down. Stocks have a tendency to march to their own drumbeat
when rising. Some stocks rise and continue to rise in the most severe of
bear markets. Short selling opens up an opportunity for the snakes on Wall
Street to take everything you own. They can cause a stock to rise at their
whim and without any regard to fundamental reason. It usually does not
make sense to bet against the sweat and toil of hard-working people.
Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates
Click the
above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.
There is no
change from last week. Interest rates remain at record low levels. That
normally fosters a bullish stock market. Unfortunately, souring economic
conditions at an accelerating rate have reduced the normal bullish
relationship to low interest rates as irrelevant. Although rates are low,
the process of borrowing money is not a capitalistic relationship between
borrower and seller and thus irrelevant to the capital markets. This is
especially true when lending is too low.
Although the
U.S. dollar weakened last week, its strengthening cycle was not disturbed.
The U.S. dollar remains strong, as the U.S. economy is perceived to have
the greatest chance of returning to robustness when compared to other
countries. The exception to this is China, who may or may not need U.S.
consumption to bolster their economy. A weakening dollar against the Yuan
may enjoy a longer-term labor relationship with the West. However, the
stock market is focused only on the next six to nine months.
Commodities
bearish cycle continues even with recent vacillations in commodity prices.
That volatility is common during major directional cyclical shifts. As
stated the past two weeks, prior deflationary concerns have paused with
vacillating commodity prices.
As stated
thirteen weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are
complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with some gusto.
This is not technical. This is fundamental.
As stated ten
weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be
followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly
productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.”
As stated
seven weeks ago, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near
expiration. Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from
time to time, but the trend should remain bearish throughout the next year
and into 2010. However, it is okay to participate in the bullish spurt
that originated on November 28, 2008. Investments should be conservative
though.
Fear
Metrics: Economics and Terrorism
Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its
April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on
October 3, 2008. It is down 42.5% since that sell signal. It has been
bearish in three of the last four weeks.
Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is down 22.9% since the Midterm Indicant
signaled sell on August 1, 2008. It has been bearish the past two weeks.
Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 141.2% from since the Mid-term
Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3,
2008. It is down 24.8% since that sell signal. It was also bearish the
past two weeks.
Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term
Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on
October 3, 2008. It is down 43.9% since that sell signal.
State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August
16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It
is down 54.7% since that sell signal.
Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant
signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3,
2008. It is down 26.5% since that sell signal.
Energy related
funds were bearish the last two weeks. They have endured significant
bearishness in 17 of the last 23-weeks. The energy industry will not be
bullish as long as politicians are trying to run it. The North American
automotive industry will be weak for years to come as long as government
is loaning dilettantes money. The quality of the products, regardless if
fuel efficient or not will deteriorate. If you want to buy a car for your
young daughter, do not buy American.
The Near-term
Indicant signaled, buy, for
ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Friday, January 2, 2009. It
is down 7.2% since that buy signal. It had been down 30.1% since the QTI
signaled sell on August 4, 2008. The Quick-term Indicant continues to
signal avoid since September 2, 2008. It is down 33.8% since then. It was
up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26,
2003 until the August 4, 2008 sell signal. This fund has been bearish in
32 of the past 52-weeks and in 23 of the past 32-weeks. This ETF remains
configured for bearishness on a Short-term basis, but could be challenged
in the event it climbs above Quick-term’s bearish yellow curve.
The Near-term
Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the
GLD-ETF#11 on December 11. It is up 2.6% since that buy signal. It
gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8,
2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to
26.0%. As stated the past two weeks, although this fund on a short-term
basis is bullish, it is not yet solidly bullish.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices
There were no new bull signals and no
bear signals.
The ten major
indices are down by an average of 4.0% since the Mid-term Indicant
signaled bull for all ten indices on November 28, 2008. As stated in last
weeks report, do not be surprised at some cooling off. You saw significant
bearishness the past two weeks. Do not be surprised at a bear signal
within a week or two. The Near-term Bullish cycle has retained anemic
configurations since its birth. It is likely to expire within days from
now.
Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.
The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at
$29,395,647
That beats buy
and hold performance of $1,259,884 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow
stocks in 1900. The
MTI S&P500 is at $139,155. That beats buy and hold’s $83,272 on a
December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The
MTI-NASDAQ is at $186,098. That beats buy and hold’s $53,028 on an
October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy
and hold by 2,233.2%, 67.1%, and 250.9%, respectively, for these indices
as of this past week.
The Indicant’s
percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull
signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because
the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the MTI-RYS model avoids
bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid
the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000%
covering the past 100+ years.
Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks
Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks
Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks
Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks
Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds
Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.
The Mid-term
Indicant signaled buy for
ProFunds Ultra Short on September 12, 2008 and it signaled sell
on October 31, 2008. It was up over 30% since that September buy signal.
It remains too risky to hold for the time being. Once the heart and soul
of bullish seasonality expires, this fund will receive a buy signal; most
likely later this month. It is down 1.7% since the October 31, 2008 sell
signal. This fund is volatile and too risky to buy at this time. Seven
weeks ago, it was up 54.5% since that sell signal. As you can see, it
plummeted since then and expected to continue to do so as long as the
Near-term Indicant continues suggesting a bullish bias, which is teetering
on expiring.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds
Always
remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good
way to mix your investments.
Long Term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average
The blue-chip
Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991.
Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles
since 1920.
The Dow is up
197.1% (annualized at 11.4%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull
897-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term
Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest
rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. A
link to the Long-term Indicant is below:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm
Short-term
Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Near-term
Cycle: All major indices remain
configured with near-term bullish attributes, excluding contrarian, VIX.
Although Vector Pressure is supportive of the bull, increasing bearish
threats are increasingly supportive of the expiration of the Near-term
bull cycle now underway. The Dow Utilities is offering resistance to the
bear. That resistance is very limited, reflecting the anemic nature of the
particular Near-term Bull cycle.
STI
Tangential Support: None;
therefore the trend remains bearish. Reverse tangential constructions
offer high probability the bear will respond violently to any bullish
spurt that may form. This is expected closer to the end of January than on
the immediate horizon. This bear is nowhere near extinction. It will be
long lasting and deep! But for traders, there is some excitement in the
attempt to participate in bullish spurts from time to time. The solid
bullish spurt continues. For longer-term investors, cash is king until the
ETF’s and major indices topple bearish yellow. At that time, the
longer-term outlook will enhance obviations of directional intensity.
Reverse
Tangential Support: Being
constructed, fostering a very high probability of long-term bearish
sustainability. However, the bullish cycle, originating on November 28,
2008 continues. It has not been dynamic or dramatic, but a bull cycle
nonetheless.
Immediate
Tactics: Cash is king except
for two extremely conservative buy signals on Friday, November 21, 2008
and several more “conservative” Quick-term and Short-term buy signals on
Friday, November 28, 2008. These recent near-term buys are still holding.
Longer-term views should avoid buying when prices are below bearish yellow
curve. However, short-term interests should enjoy this bullish surge,
albeit boring and more or less flat. Unfortunately, this bullish spurt is
tiring and on the verge of expiring.
Current
Quick-term Bias: Bearish and
will remain so with the high number of Yellow Bears.
Current
Near-term Bias: Bullish bias
born on Friday, November 28, 2008 and still maintaining bullish attributes
but under severe assaults by the bear. Declining Force Vectors have now
matured and configuring in favor of near-term bullish responses to last
week’s excessive bearish expressions. The past two days offered the
anticipated bullish responses, but they were disappointingly anemic,
reflecting the anatomy of the current Near-term Bull cycle now underway.
Overall
Market Status: Near-term
configurations support bullish bias, while the Quick-term Indicant remains
encumbered with Yellow Bears. The near-term attributes were weakening in
their support of the baby bull, but have yet to succumb to the bear’s
desire. Following this near-term bull, significant bearish potential
exists for a much longer duration.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
The January call options expired today. The recommendations earlier this
week were for the most part disappointing as the anticipated bullish
responses were very timid. That did not foster the desired profit.
Volume:
The Near-term Bull is not
supported by volume, but normalcy will lean more toward obviating
directional intensity in a few weeks following the waning influence of low
holiday volume. As you can see, the
Indicant Volume Indicator is increasing, but not enough to obviate
directional intensity. Its rise is more or less returning to normalcy
following light holiday volume.
Near-term,
Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
To view the STI-Tangential Protection for ten major indices, click here.
The following
is a discussion of each of the ten major indices’ configurations. We will
continue doing this until we finalize the tour and complete documentation
of bull/bear signaling. The model, which removes all economic, corporate,
and other fundamental influences, in addition to normal seasonality, has
been thoroughly tested and validated. Documentation is a different matter
and it will be completed before the end of the year.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled bull for the 11-major indices an average
of 30.8-days ago. They are down by an average of 2.3% since their bull
signals.
DJIA
01/16/09-Fri-This index along with most of the others continue resisting
bearish dominance at Near-term Indicant’s bearish green curve. Today’s
mild bullishness was a very weak bullish response; enough so to continue
with the Near-term Bull signal, but also with a warning regarding this
bull’s weak nature. Do not be surprised at this Near-term Bull cycle
expiring within a few days. Keep in mind the significantly mature Force
Vector continues to configure in support of additional bullish responses,
regardless of magnitude. The Near-term Indicant continues signaling bull
on that basis even though most of the near-term attributes are favoring
the bear. 01/15/09-Thu-Bearish unanimity remains absent with slight
bullish support from the Dow Utilities, NASDAQ, NAS100, and the S&P400
Index. These indices are barely holding above bearish domains. If they
succumb to bearish ambition, the November 28, 2008 Near-term Bull will
expire. 01/14/09-Wed- The bullish blue curve collapsed today. That
suggests the Near-term Bull of November 28, 2009 is nearing expiration.
The only reason it is not officially dead is the lack of bearish support
from a few of the major indices. Please read on. 01/13/09-Tue-Force Vector
fell into bearish domains today. The last time that occurred, the bull
responded with a six-hundred plus point gain in the six days following
that. Configurations support a similar response. Options are expiring this
Friday. If the market opens down in the morning, you may want to buy some
January calls if you have a penchant for some exciting in this otherwise
boring market. 01/12/09-Mon-Force Vectors interacted with Vector Pressure
today. The maturity of the Force Vector cycle suggests potential for a
bullish response. Rising Vector Pressure remains in support of the bull.
Do not be surprised at bullish responses in the next day or to. If you and
I are surprised, then do not be surprised at this Near-term Bull expiring
before the end of this week. Configurations, though, do not support
dynamic bearish behavior on a near-term basis. 01/09/09-Fri-Force Vector,
as expected are moving south and fostering Near-term bearishness, but not
yet disrupting the Near-term Bull. The interaction with Vector Pressure
will facilitate obviations of directional intensity. The Bear will gain
Near-term influence if the index interacts with rising green curve and
Force Vectors fall into bearish domains (below Yellow N).
DJ Composites
01/16/09-Fri-Same as DJIA. 01/15/09-Thu-Technically a bear, but still
coded as a Near-term Bull due to bullish support from a few of the other
indices. 01/14/09-Wed- Same as DJIA. 01/13/09-Tue-Same as DJIA.
01/12/09-Mon-Same as DJIA. 01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
DJ Transports
01/16/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/15/09-Thu-Same as DJ Composites. 01/14/09-Wed-Same as
DJIA. 01/13/09-Tue- Same as DJIA. 01/12/09-Mon-Same as DJIA.
01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
DJ Utilities
01/16/09-Fri-
Utilities continues to be the strongest bull of the major indices. Even
with that, its Near-term Bull is pathetic and with little pizzazz. You
should notice its Force Vector cycle is in the neutral zone by a very
small margin. Also the index has not yet fallen to the Near-term
Indicant’s bearish green curve. This index is very influential in the
continuation of the Near-term Bull cycle now underway. 01/15/09-Thu-Force
Vectors remain just above bearish domains and the index is hovering just
above the Near-term green bearish curve. It is a very fragile Near-term
Bull teetering on expiring. 01/14/09-Wed-The Force Vector did not fall
into bearish domains, suggesting bullish resistance to outright domination
by the bear on a Near-term basis. Bearishly mature Force Vectors here and
among the other Dow Indices suggests bullish response potential, but
weakly so. This is preventing expiration of the November 28,
2008-Near-term Bull. 01/13/09-Tue- Same as DJIA. 01/12/09-Mon-Same as
DJIA, except you should notice Utilities Index was not bearish today when
most of the other indices fell victim to bearish aggression, but not
enough to disrupt their Near-term Bull configurations. 01/09/09-Fri-Same
as DJIA.
NASDAQ
01/16/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/15/09-Thu-Same as Dow Utilities. 01/14/09-Wed-This index
is still maintaining configurations similar to a bullish thoroughbred. Its
Near-term bullish blue curve did not collapse today. It continues to rise
and robustly so. Force Vectors did fall into bearish domains today but its
bearish cycle is mature, fostering a mildly high probability of a bullish
response before this coming Friday. The fact this index remains above
bearish green curve is preventing expiration of the November 28,
2008-Near-term Bull. 01/13/09-Tue- Same as DJIA, except Force Vectors are
hovering just above bearish domains in the neutral zone, which favors the
bull. 01/12/09-Mon-Same as DJIA. This index cooled more rapidly than the
DJIA and other similar indices due to it being the more aggressive bull
several days ago. The indices have returned with a configuration
supporting directional unanimity. Since the current configuration is
endowed with a Near-term Bull, then all are in support of that bull.
01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA, except Force Vectors remain in bullish domains.
NASDAQ100
01/16/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/15/09-Thu-Same as Dow Utilities. 01/14/09-Wed-Same as
NASDAQ. Although difficult to see due to it infinitesimal penetration into
bearish domains, the NAS100 Force Vector succumbed to the bear. However,
as stated in the NASDAQ section, this index remains above bearish green.
01/13/09-Tue- Same as DJIA, except Force Vectors are hovering just above
bearish domains in the neutral zone, which favors the bull.
01/12/09-Mon-Same as NASDAQ. 01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA. Yes, Force Vector
is no longer in bullish domains.
S&P500
01/16/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/15/09-Thu-Same as DJIA and DJ Composites.
01/14/09-Wed-Same as DJIA. 01/13/09-Tue- Same as DJIA. 01/12/09-Mon-Same
as DJIA. 01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
S&P100
01/16/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/15/09-Thu- Same as DJIA and DJ Composites.
01/14/09-Wed-Same as DJIA. 01/13/09-Tue- Same as DJIA. 01/12/09-Mon-Same
as DJIA. 01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA, except Force Vectors remain in bullish
domains similar to that of the NASDAQ.
S&P400
01/16/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/15/09-Thu-Same as Dow Utilities. 01/14/09-Wed-Same as
NASDAQ. 01/13/09-Tue- Same as NASDAQ. 01/12/09-Mon-The remains with solid
Near-term Bullish configurations. Force Vectors feel below bullish
domains, but remain in healthy non-bearish position. 01/09/09-Fri-Same as
DJIA. Weakened considerably on today’s bearish behavior.
S&P600
01/16/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/15/09-Thu-Same as DJIA and Dow Composites.
01/14/09-Wed-Same as DJIA. That is discerning as this index was with the
strongest bullish configurations just last week. Money has rotated out of
the small caps much faster than the other major sectors. 01/13/09-Tue-
Same as NASDAQ. 01/12/09-MonThis is same as the S&P400, but its Force
Vector remains in bullish domains, which is a solid support attribute for
the Near-term Bull cycle now underway.-01/09/09-Fri-Same as S&P400.
NYSE
01/16/09-Fri-
Same as DJIA. 01/15/09-Thu- Same as DJIA and DJ Composites.
01/14/09-Wed-Same as DJIA, except its Force Vector has not yet fallen into
bearish domains. 01/13/09-Tue- Same as NASDAQ with a fairly strong bullish
posture. 01/12/09-Mon-Same as DJIA. 01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
VIX (Market Contrarian)
01/16/09-Fri-Same as yesterday. Its Force Vector cycle is too hot to
continue. It needs to cool and that could facilitate overall stock market
bullishness. 01/15/09-Thu-Technically a bull, but mature Force Vector and
bearish Vector Pressure, coupled with mild bullish support from a few of
the major indices suggests holding off on bull signal for a day or two
longer. 01/14/09-Wed-When Force Vector shifts back to the south and then
pivots north from above Vector Pressure, the VIX bull will be inspired.
That would inspire the bear for the overall stock market.
01/13/09-Tue-Bullish Force Vector cycle is mature. That favors a bearish
response, which favors a bullish response in the overall stock market.
01/12/09-Mon-Force Vectors are climbing a steep incline and now
buttressing against Vector Pressure. That suggests some near-term
bearishness, which supports a bullish stock market. 01/09/09-Fri-Bullish
behavior today was technically expected and indeed fostered stock market
bearishness which you saw today. It will be interesting to observe Force
Vector interaction with Vector Pressure next week.
Overall
Comment Regarding Major Indices: 01/16/09-Fri-The Dow Utilities continues
providing resistance to bearish ambition. That is the major reason the
Near-term Indicant continues signaling bull. If it succumbs to the bear, a
new Near-term Bear will be born. Configurations continue supporting a
bullish response, which occurred today and yesterday, but the magnitude of
those responses was pitiful. However, directional intensity remains
bullish on a near-term basis with those mild bullish expressions the past
two days. 01/15/09-Thu-It was disappointing Force Vector interaction with
rising Vector Pressure did not foster a bullish response. Although a mild
bullish response occurred today, it was so slight that it offered little
for bullish stimulation. The November 28, 2008 Near-term Bull is extremely
fragile and teetering on expiration. If there is no solid bullish bounce
in the next day or two, do not be surprised at bearish aggression and a
new Near-term Bear signal. 01/14/09-Wed-Although there still can be a
bullish bounce in the next two days due to very mature Force Vectors, the
November 28, 2008 Near-term Bull is very near expiration. Its expiration
is pending unanimity from all the major indices. As you can see from the
above a few of them are retaining attributes supportive of the Near-term
Bull. Tomorrow and Friday’s stock market performance will be a prime
determinate on the longevity of the current Near-term Bull that originated
on November 28, 2008. 01/13/09-Tue-Force Vectors are well within a mature
bearish cycle. Some dipped into bearish domains, which should trigger an
immediate bullish response over the next two to four days. That is common
during Near-term Bulls. If that does not happen, this Near-term Bull is
not a thoroughbred. Its expiration would not be surprising in a few days,
if the bull does not show some muster in the next two to four days.
01/12/09-Mon-Force Vectors are positioning in support to a bullish
response to recent bearish aggression. If there is no response in the next
day or two, the bear will gain some momentum, but nowhere near like that
of last September or October. A bullish response of mediocre attitude,
followed by lateral to passive market behavior in either direction would
help the Near-term Bull gain enough energy for some additional
sustainability. If the bear is a bit more aggressive than last week in the
next day or two, then the current Near-term Bull will expired. Bias your
behavior, mildly so, in favor of increasing bullishness on a Near-term
basis. 01/09/09-Fri-Force Vectors pinnacled earlier this week triggering
the expected bearish response. Also, fundamentally the U.S. Congress is
back in session, which always fosters bearish support. However, the
Near-term Bull remains in tact and will not expired unless Force Vectors
fall into bearish domains and the various indices fall to or below bearish
green curve with expressed unanimity among all the major indices.
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bull on Friday, November 28 for both the
NYSE and NASDAQ as Force Vectors and other configurations shifted into
bullish support on a near-term basis. This bull signal stands, even with
recent bearish behavior. They are down 6.2% and down 0.4%, respectively,
since the November 28, 2008 bull signal. They are annualized at -6.2% and
-0.4%, respectively. As stated last week, do not be surprised at cooling.
Unfortunately, behavior is more than just cooling, as this bullish bias
cycle is nearing expiration. Mild bullish behavior the past two days has
offered a salvaging effect to this anemic bull cycle.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
The NYSE and
NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators continue moving lethargically, but showing
some interest in developing a cycle of robustness. The major indices
topped the bullish red curve on the volume charts on January 5, 2009 for
the first time since last May. That apparently was outside the comfort
zone of these two major indices as they fell below bullish red last
Friday. They have now rapidly approached bearish yellow. The bearish
yellow curve indeed provided a floor of bearish resistance. The battle is
not over, but somewhat encouraging to those desiring bullish behavior
there is at least some resistance. If that resistance is lost in the next
few days, there are no other floors available to impede the bear’s
ambition. In other words, the bear’s stopping point will most likely be
years from now, as opposed to days, weeks, or months.
Short-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were no
Near-term and no Quick-term buy or sell signals today.
However, as
stated the past two days, many ETF’s are on the verge of receiving sell
signals. You noticed several bullish blue curves collapsed on Wednesday,
January 15, 2009, suggesting the Near-term Bull is very near expiration.
Without the bullish bounce the past two days, this Near-term Bull would
have expired.
The Near-term
Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are down by an average of
1.4%, annualizing at -1.4% since their buy signals an average of 6.7-weeks
ago. The NTI is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down 7.5% since their sell
signals an average of 3.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for only four ETF’s. They are up
93.3% since their buy signals 14.2-weeks ago. 27-ETF’s are down 36.5%
since their sell signals an average of 24.8-weeks ago.
Use the
Near-term Indicant for trading on those 17-ETF’s with hold signals
generated from the Quick-term Indicant on November 28, 2008. About half of
those Quick-term holds were triggered by the Near-term Indicant while the
14-avoided ETF’s were under the strict influence of the Quick-term Yellow
Bear rule. You will notice the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
several of the 14-avoided Quick-term Yellow Bears. Continue following the
Quick-term Yellow Bear rule of avoidance for those ETF’s until they engage
their bearish yellow curves. ETF#10-IBB (Chart
)
eclipsed bearish yellow a few days ago
and has struggled since then. This is very common following dynamic
bearish cycles.
Do not be
surprised at bearish resistance to ETF’s crossing above bearish yellow. We
are several weeks, if not months, away from that occurring for most of
these ETF’s. Also, do not expect a continuance to Bullish Red Curves and
beyond. The Near-term Indicant will help you make short-term assessments
of holding or avoiding.
Most of the
regular Mutual Funds received sell signals in late 2007 and in early 2008.
As you know, all 100-Mutual Funds have been avoided since their sell
signals several weeks/months ago. That avoidance was triggered by the
Mid-term Indicant.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds.
As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points
since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell late last year and earlier this
year. The Mid-term Indicant will be updated this weekend with a link to
the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
The Near-term
Indicant is more aggressive in buying and selling, while the Mid-term
Indicant is much more passive. The Quick-term Indicant is somewhere in
between the two models.
Many of you
notice some uncharacteristic yellow bear buy signals for about half of the
ETF’s that were quickly followed with sell signals during October and
early November. The other half of the ETF’s followed the strict rule of
not buying yellow bears.
The Near-term
Indicant has been developed to provide greater visibility of this sort of
activity on the same charts as the Quick-term Indicant, as opposed to the
two charts. Now, the Quick-term, Near-term, and Short-term expressions are
contained on a single chart for each of the ETF’s, as opposed to the
previous three separate charts.
Clicking the
following link will take you to a table that contains both the Near-term
and Quick-term Indicants. It is for members only as it contains buy and
sell signals each day. You will notice the red and yellow bearish curves
are the same as the previous Quick-term Indicant model. In other words
those attributes are the same as before. However, the difference is the
strict adherence to avoiding yellow bears; especially if Vector Pressure
is in bearish domains.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Current
Strategy-Short-term Indicant –
Jan 16, 2009-Fri-Do not buy and continue holding with the idea many
Near-term sell signals will most likely occur in the next few days. If the
Near-term Bull now underway gains some traction, then holding will remain
appropriate. That desired traction is unlikely due to the pitiful and
anemic nature of the Near-term bullish cycle. Jan 15, 2009-Thu-Same as
yesterday. Today’s late rally deferred the Near-term bull signal that is
now pending. Jan 14, 2009-Wed-Be prepared to sell holdings in the next few
days. This Near-term Bull is struggling and will most likely expire within
a day or two. There could be a bullish bounce, as we have been
anticipating, but configurations suggest that it will be minor. Obviations
should display in a day or two. Jan 13, 2009-Tue-The bearish Force Vector
cycle is now mature, fostering increasing probabilities of immediate
bullishness. This is so much true, that buying some January call options
on dips should be rewarding. They expire this coming Friday and within the
tolerance range of the anticipated bullish bounce. In other words, the
risk is high, but as usual, it relates to the accompanying potential for
the reward. As previously stated, continue holding until the current
Near-term Bull expires, regardless of its adolescent weaknesses and boring
nature. Jan 12, 2009-Mon-No change from last Friday. Jan 9, 2009-Fri-The
declining Force Vectors are a natural element. That attribute, although
discomforting, is not enough to expire the Near-term Bull that is now
underway. The only ETF with a Near-term Bull signal that is threatened by
bearish ambition is ETF#11-GLD. There will be more about that later. For
the time being, holding those “conservative buys” for November continues
to be the recommendation, based predominantly on bullish Vector Pressure
and several Force Vectors continuing residence in bullish domains. The
Near-term Bull will expired if prices fall below green curve and Force
Vectors fall into bearish domains. If Force Vector cycle is normal, then
by mid next week, directional intensity should be obviated by the
impending interaction between Force Vector and Vector Pressure.
Near-term
and Quick-term Summary
The bearish
bias originating on September 5, 2008 expired on November 4 and replaced
with a new bullish bias. That bullish bias has expired as the bullish
spurt perished shortly after its origination. However, on November 28,
2008, a new bullish bias configured. This bias remains and is now being
confronted with bearish threats.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF
cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. It is excluded from overall ETF statistics
because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during
bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This exclusion is required
for convergent/divergent monitoring.
The former
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID on November 21, 2008. It was down 33.7% on Friday, Dec 26, 2008
since that sell signal. It continues to be down considerably since then.
The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on December 17, 2008. It is up 2.9%
since then. You will notice the Quick-term Indicant in
the table adhered to the yellow bear rule and has not yet
signaled sell.
This ETF
crossed above bullish blue curve last Friday. Its Force Vector has indeed
climbed mightily into bullish domains. Its declining Vector Pressure is of
primary concern and thus no Near-term buy signal at this time. If the
Near-term Bull expires, this ETF will receive a buy signal.
Other
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources - This ETF was down 39.5% since the
Quick-term Indicant sell signal on July 24, 2008, as December 29, 2008. As
you can see from the table, the QTI adhered strictly to the yellow bear
rule with a buy and sell signal after July 24, 2008. The yellow bear rule
had it signal sell on September 2, 2008 and it is down 33.8% since then.
As previously stated, the Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until
Vector Pressure is positive and Yellow Bear expires. The Near-term
Indicant signaled buy for this ETF on January 2, 2009. It is down 7.2%
since then and is nearing a sell signal, but it must first contact bearish
green curve. As you can see, this ETF has been vacillating within the
fairly tight trading range with little bullish or bearish commitment.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 2.6% since the NTI and QTI
signaled buy on December 11, 20008. It is annualized at 25.5% since then.
This fund had been configuring favorable to more buying on a near-term
basis, but that is now being challenged as it is configuring similarly to
most of the other non-contrarian ETF’s. Vector Pressure remains strongly
in support of the bull, but weakening. If bull does not respond to recent
bearish aggression, a Near-term sell signal will be triggered. That is
unlikely due to the laziness of its recently declining Force Vector, which
is now nearing the expiration of its recent bearish cycle.
ETF#14-Long Government is up 20.4% since the NTI buy signal on Nov
17, 2008. This is annualizing at 122.3%, which will not manifest. We’re
going to hold unless it becomes a Yellow Bear. However, it is not
configured favorably to additional buying. Just hold it if you own it if
bought on the NTI signal or the previous QTI buy signal on November 17,
2008.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Divergence
versus Convergence
Unfortunately,
the market closed with bearish convergence last week and the prior week.
Three of the last four weeks have endured the combination of bearish
convergence/divergence. This suggests increasing bearishness.
Indicant
Conclusion
There were
again no Mid-term Indicant buy signals for Mutual Funds. All 100-mutual
funds are with avoid signals. All 100-Mutual Funds tracked by the Mid-term
Indicant are down by an average of 34.9% since their sell signals an
average of 31.2-weeks ago. Although the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant
models are holding several of the ETF’s tracked, the Mid-term Indicant
will not signal buy for most of the Mutual Funds until they remove
themselves from bearish domains. Current configurations suggest it could a
year or longer for that to occur.
As stated the
past ten weeks, interest rates are falling, which is bullish. Oil prices
are declining. Those two elements, alone, are typically enough to
stimulate bullish activity. Trader behavior should ignite a “near-term”
bullish spurt cycle, even in the face of sour economic outlooks.
Unfortunately, the ignition produced an anemic bull, which does not appear
to possess any significant longevity. It will most likely expire within a
week or two, if not sooner.
Although
commodity prices have been stable the past several weeks, deflation
remains as an increasing concern. If it manifests, a 2500 Dow by 2010/11
may be optimistic. Even with that threat, a bullish spurt has been
attempting to configure for the past several weeks. Unfortunately, each
gain in traction is followed by a slippery slope. This Near-term bull is
not made up of strongly bullish genetics.
Keep up with
the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift
quickly.
Do not get
lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to
enjoy hold signals.
The daily
updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Hyperlinks
To access all
major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click
the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are
inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on
the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way
back.
Happy
Investing,
www.indicant.net
01/18/09
January 11,
2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report
Volume 1, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The
Indicant Stock Market Report
This Week’s
Report
Congress
Back at Work - A Bearish Invigoration
According to
the Congressional Effect Fund, the S&P500 annualized gain amounts to 17.6%
when Congress is out of session. That compares mightily to the paltry
annualized gain of only 1.6% when Congress is in session. Click the
following link for direct and specific information from the “congressional
effect.”
http://www.congressionaleffect.com/inc/May232008_Prospectus.pdf
Last week
Congress returned to work. As indicated by the “congressional effect,” the
bear came out of hibernation. The bear loves the U.S. Congress, as
statistically substantiated by the fund.
That bearish
passion for political influence does not stop in the United States.
History demonstrates the bear loves politicians, dictators, and radical
religious leaders around the world. Those three occupations contain the
exact same job description; that is, “control a lot of people through fear
or coercion.” The bear loves it when a few people attempt or actually
manifest the direction of behavior of the masses. The success of those
“control freaks” is met with sour quality of life that results from “bear
market” behavior.
The bear
recognizes the masses need some direction and there are a few souls bent
on doing the directing. The bear encourages poverty for the masses and
disdains individual capital attainment. U.S. politicians tax capital
attainment; not once but twice. It is nonsensical and depresses economic
robustness.
The problem
with politicians is their innate inability to follow a path of economic
logic because along that path is an ego that must be satisfied. The
problem rests with the wide gap between ego and ability. Economic
robustness is stimulated by physical action in the physical world of
manufacturing, agriculture, or extraction. Politicians do not interact
directly with economic wealth. Their expressed inability to do so is the
reason for the tax and economic suppression.
Within the
masses are thruster groups each with their own interest. Some of these
thruster groups are congruent with political leadership and some are not.
For example, there was a congruent relationship between communism,
unionism, and Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
FDR supported
unions by the mere fact that garnished more votes than the executive wing
at GM, Ford, or Chrysler. Union activity accelerated with communism. Both
manifestos suggest that you as an individual do not know what is best for
you. The essence of that manifesto is there are a few of us who possess
the wisdom to determine what is best for you. The leaders of such
manifesto have oratory skills; that is it! The followers do not have
oratory counter-points and thus fall prey to those they worship.
Henry Ford and
his wife, Clara, represented another thruster group well ahead of the FDR,
communists, and unions. Henry did not keep up with politics. He, like most
capitalists, are too busy working. Such people are not rude or uncaring
about their communities. They are just too busy creating economic wealth.
It takes hard honest work to do that. It takes risks; a lot of personal
risks.
Remember, a
true capitalist spend most of their time producing products of appeal.
Politicians get ahead by promoting intellectual idealism, which offers
nothing to economic wealth.
Politician’s
personal risks are minimal. Their rise to power is with their hands out.
They take the easy route. Once they attain political power, their
decisions are always poor. They have limited experience in taking personal
risks. Their decisions will always be poor ones in that their personal
fortunes are not at risks with their decisions. On the contrary, they use
money from others to enhance their personal fortunes and at the expense of
many.
So, why is the
Congressional Effect based from the 1960’s? We do not know the answer to
that question and may do research spanning a longer period. But here is a
theory.
About
one-hundred years ago, most politicians had real jobs. They were farmers
for the most part. They made their trips to Washington DC on horses or
horse drawn carriages. They were close to reality. Today, the Speaker of
the House of Representatives flies into and from Washington on military
jets, while the Speakers’ thruster groups are critical of the masses for
driving SUV’s.
Many members
of “green” thruster groups drive SUV’s. The problem with hypocrites, such
as Al Gore and others with a political bent in their lives, is that most
see through their façade. Roy Bedichek, on the other hand, walked the
talk. He would not even use or flush a toilet, knowing that was pollutant
behavior. But Roy was no politician; he simply promoted values through
hard work and lived as he talked. Politicians on the other hand, tell
everyone else how to live, while they want to live like kings.
The quality of
politicians is definitely worse than what it used to be. Adolph Hitler was
one of the worse ones. Saddam Hussein was another from a more recent
history. History shows plenty of bad ones around the world, but that is
easy because most of the people who get into politics are not willing to
be like Henry and Clara. That is excessively hard for them.
Economic
wealth will be delivered in only three ways; manufacturing, agriculture,
and extraction. None of that occurs at any political institution.
The
Congressional Effect Fund has no symbol, as it is relatively new. No one
at the Indicant Stock Market Report owns the Congressional Effect Fund or
has any contact with employees of that fund.
Keep your eye
on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate
sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity
underway.
Weekly
Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant
Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply
scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.
The Mid-term
Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals. There have been
518-sell signals since October 26, 2007 and 32-buy signals since October
31, 2008.
Although
there were no buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for only 36 of the 344-stocks
and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals
are up an average of 52.4%. That annualizes to 64.9%. The Mid-term
Indicant has been signaling hold for these 36-stocks and funds for an
average of 41.9-weeks.
Although
there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 308-stocks and funds of the 344-
tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average
of 33.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of
33.9-weeks ago.
The Mid-term
Indicant is avoiding all Mutual Funds, except for the ETF’s tracked daily.
All one-hundred funds are down an average of 32.3% since their sell
signals an average of 30.2-weeks ago. Even though a bullish spurt is
possible, the Mid-term Indicant will be more conservative before signaling
buy for these funds. Bearish yellow must be toppled first.
One year ago,
on Jan 11, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 171-stocks and funds
out of the 345 tracked for an average of 146.1-weeks. They were up by an
average of 170.7% (annualized at 60.7%). There were 159-avoided stocks and
funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of
15.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 15.3-weeks
earlier.
The Mid-term
Indicant was signaling hold for 313-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked
two years ago on Jan 12, 2007. They were up by an average of 105.7%
(annualized at 61.2%) since their respective buy signals an average of
89.9-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 32-stocks and funds
at that time. They were down an average of 13.3% since their respective
sell signals an average of 20.6-weeks earlier.
There were
292-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jan 13, 2006 since their buy
signals an average of 87.6-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of
113.0% (annualized at 67.1%). There were 52-avoided stocks and funds at
that time. They were down by an average of 10.6% from their respective
sell signals an average of 23.7-weeks earlier.
On Jan 7,
2005, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 236-stocks and funds
out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 86.7% (annualized at
65.9%) since their buy signals an average of 61.1-weeks earlier. The
Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 15-stocks and funds at that time. They were
down by an average of 41.1% since their sell signals an average of
68.4-weeks earlier.
Five years
ago, on Jan 10, 2004, there were 288-hold signals for stocks and funds out
of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an
average of 63.5% (annualized at 90.8%) since their respective buy signals
an average of 36.4-weeks earlier. There were only six-avoided stocks and
funds then. They were down an average of 29.0% since their respective sell
signals an average of 36.4-weeks earlier.
On Jan 11,
2003, there were 284-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing
of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an
average of 22.2%, annualizing at 76.6%. There were six avoided stocks and
funds then. They were down by an average of 31.6% since their sell signals
an average of 24.9-weeks earlier.
Summary of
Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week
To maintain
appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals
for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is
in the member’s only section.
Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.
As repeatedly
stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single
stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only
love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management
stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.
All updated
information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the
below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Comments
about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend
Even though
Quick-term and Short-term configurations are increasingly supporting the
heart and soul of bullish seasonality, the Mid-term Indicant may not
participate in much buying. Longer-term elements are not bullish even if
the heart and soul of bullish seasonality produces exciting bullish
configurations.
There are
only about two to three weeks remaining for the heart and soul of bullish
seasonality. So far, this historical standard has been disappointing.
However, configurations still support it, albeit a bit shaky.
Click the
following link that will take you to the tangential protection charts.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm
The
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report
The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on
an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website
for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market
report for the last trading day of each week is imbedded in this weekly
report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for
much longer than the last twelve months.
The Daily
Indicant Stock Market Report for the last trading day of the current week
is near the conclusion of this weekly stock market report. It is emailed
each weekend, separately, so you can read it, either as a separate
document, or in this document.
The
Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend
The Dow is up
18.0% since its secular low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 41.1% and
the S&P500 is up 14.6% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up
50.0%.
The Dow is
down 39.3% since its last closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down
45.0% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600 is down 42.5% since
its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007.
The NASDAQ is
down 68.9% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500
is down 41.7% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is
down by 26.6% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s
roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be
surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.
As socialism
increases with coerced benevolence by politicians, the NASDAQ may not hit
its 2000 peak until after 2050. Even that depends on resurgence in
entrepreneurialism and related capitalism. Politicians screwed up the
economy and the masses will believe their fixes. Yes, the masses, for the
most part, are weak and stupid. It just depends on what critical mass
believes the lies and what critical mass keeps moving forward with
progressive capitalism.
The Dow is
down 2.0% so far this year. The NASDAQ is down 0.3% this year. Keep in
mind the post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since
1832. As you can see, last week’s incongruent bullish positions were
replaced with congruent bearish positions this week.
As stated for
several weeks, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality is again
attempting to configure. It performed nicely the week before last even
though it has disappointed for the last several weeks. It remains
embryonic and thus vulnerable as you saw from last week’s bearish
aggression.
The NASDAQ
year-to-date performance was bearish by 1.2% through this week in 2001.
Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%., which was congruent
with standards of post election year bearishness.
The NASDAQ was
up by 4.8% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic
bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%.
The bear cycle found bottom in 2002, which is consistent with the mid-term
year’s historical standards.
The NASDAQ YTD
2003 performance was up by 7.7%. It finished up in that solidly bullish
year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year
results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 4.2%, which was congruent
with election year bullishness although shy of magnitude standards. It
was down in 2005’s post election year, which maintained congruency to the
historical standards of losses. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were
meandering bear markets. In 2006, it was up 5.1% on this weekend and
finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of
historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 1.2% at
this time in 2007 and finished that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent
with pre-election year bullishness. It was down 6.7% at this time last
year. The NASDAQ finished down 40.5% in 2008. That was contrarian
performance to historical election year bullishness and the most bearish
presidential election year since related records from 1832.
Keep your eye
on the daily stock market report.
Stop Loss
Management
The Mid-term
Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 10% due to increasing bearish
influences for your longer-term holdings. The Mid-term Indicant will be
passive in generating buy signals even with the support of a Quick-term
bull cycle. The longer-term attributes remain configured in support of the
bear. The Near-term attributes are weakening in their support of the
Near-term Bull and thus the reason for the elevation in stop losses for
your longer-term holdings. The trick is to prevent “stopping out” in the
event the Near-term Bull manifests into a significant degree of
sustainability.
If your stock
or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set
your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing
stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop
loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is
greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at
the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 10% trailing stop loss.
If you are up
by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund,
then use a 20% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If
you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management.
Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely
for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish
spending and excessive concerns about social issues. Those types are more
interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making
you money. High performing companies remain focused on honoring the
investments made by their shareholders.
In a few
instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down
from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If
you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and
funds with those “bearish” attributes. They are configured for a possible
rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses
mentioned in this report. Use the Quick-term Indicant as a guide in your
decision-making processes. If the stock price is falling in a Quick-term
Bear market, it is not advisable to buy.
Do not short
on stocks if they are up from an avoid signal. Stocks go up more often
than they go down. Stocks have a tendency to march to their own drumbeat
when rising. Some stocks rise and continue to rise in the most severe of
bear markets. Short selling opens up an opportunity for the snakes on Wall
Street to take everything you own. They can cause a stock to rise at their
whim and without any regard to fundamental reason. It usually does not
make sense to bet against the sweat and toil of hard-working people.
Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates
Click the
above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.
Interest rates
remain at record low levels. That normally fosters a bullish stock market.
Unfortunately, souring economic conditions at an accelerating rate have
reduced the normal bullish relationship to low interest rates as
irrelevant. Although rates are low the process of borrowing money is not a
capitalistic relationship between borrower and seller and thus irrelevant
to the capital markets. This is especially true when lending is too low.
Although the
U.S. dollar weakened last week, its strengthening cycle was not disturbed.
The U.S. dollar remains strong, as the U.S. economy is perceived to have
the greatest chance of returning to robustness when compared to other
countries. The exception to this is China, who may or may not need U.S.
consumption to bolster their economy. A weakening dollar against the yuan
may enjoy a longer-term labor relationship with the West. However, the
stock market is focused only on the next six to nine months.
Commodities
new bearish cycle continues even with recent vacillations in commodity
prices. That volatility is common during major directional cyclical
shifts. As stated last week, prior deflationary concerns have paused with
vacillating commodity prices.
As stated
twelve weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are
complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with some gusto.
This is not technical. This is fundamental.
As stated nine
weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be
followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly
productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.”
As stated six
weeks ago, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near expiration.
Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from time to time,
but the trend should remain bearish throughout the next year and into
2010. However, it is okay to participate in the bullish spurt that
originated on November 28, 2008. Investments should be conservative
though.
Fear
Metrics: Economics and Terrorism
Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its
April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on
October 3, 2008. It is down 36.2% since that sell signal. It has been
bearish in two of the last three weeks.
Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is down 21.8% since the Midterm Indicant
signaled sell on August 1, 2008. It was bearish last week, following two
bullish weeks.
Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 141.2% from since the Mid-term
Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3,
2008. It is down 20.3% since that sell signal. It was also bearish last
week.
Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term
Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on
October 3, 2008. It is down 39.1% since that sell signal.
State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August
16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It
is down 50.6% since that sell signal.
Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant
signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3,
2008. It is down 21.6% since that sell signal.
Energy related
funds were bearish last week. They have endured significant bearishness in
16 of the last 22-weeks. The energy industry will not be bullish as long
as politicians are trying to run it.
The Near-term
Indicant signaled, buy, for
ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Friday, January 2, 2009. It
is down 3.0% since that buy signal. It had been down 30.1% since the QTI
signaled sell on August 4, 2008. The Quick-term Indicant continues to
signal avoid since September 2, 2008. It is down 30.8% since then. It was
up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26,
2003 until the previous August 4, 2008 sell signal. This fund has been
bearish in 31 of the past 51-weeks and in 22 of the past 31-weeks. This
ETF remains configured for bearishness on a Short-term basis, but could be
challenged in the event it climbs above Quick-term’s bearish yellow curve.
The Near-term
Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the
GLD-ETF#11 on December 11. It is up 4.1% since that buy signal. It
gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8,
2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to
26.0%. As stated last week, although this fund on a short-term basis is
bullish, it is not yet solidly bullish.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices
There were no new bull signals and no
bear signals.
The ten major
indices are down by an average of 0.3% since the Mid-term Indicant
signaled bull for all ten indices on November 28, 2008. As stated in last
weeks report, do not be surprised at some cooling off. You saw significant
bearishness last week.
Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.
The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at
$30,542,302
That beats buy
and hold performance of $1,308,258 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow
stocks in 1900. The
MTI S&P500 is at $145,740. That beats buy and hold’s $87,212 on a
December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The
MTI-NASDAQ is at $191,240. That beats buy and hold’s $54,493 on an
October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy
and hold by 2,233.2%, 67.1%, and 250.9%, respectively, for these indices
as of this past week.
The Indicant’s
percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull
signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because
the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the MTI-RYS model avoids
bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid
the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000%
covering the past 100+ years.
Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks
Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks
Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks
Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks
Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds
Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.
The Mid-term
Indicant signaled buy for
ProFunds Ultra Short on September 12, 2008 and it signaled sell
on October 31, 2008. It was up over 30% since that September buy signal.
It remains too risky to hold for the time being. Once the heart and soul
of bullish seasonality expires, this fund will receive a buy signal; most
likely later this month. It is down 1.7% since the October 31, 2008 sell
signal. This fund is volatile and too risky to buy at this time. Seven
weeks ago, it was up 54.5% since that sell signal. As you can see, it
plummeted since then and expected to continue to do so as long as the
Near-term Indicant continues suggesting a bullish bias, which is teetering
on expiring.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds
Always
remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good
way to mix your investments.
Long Term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average
The blue-chip
Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991.
Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles
since 1920.
The Dow is up
197.1% (annualized at 11.4%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull
897-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term
Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest
rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. A
link to the Long-term Indicant is below:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm
Short-term
Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Near-term
Cycle: All major indices remain
configured with near-term bullish attributes, excluding contrarian, VIX.
As stated last Monday, minor bearish threats have expired with the
exception of maturing Force Vector bullish cycles. However, it is still
holding with bullish configurations. Bullish unanimity remains on a
near-term basis, which supports bullish ambition. As stated earlier this
past week, the S&P600-Small Cap Index
(Chart)
remains configured with solid
robustness, but its bull cycle should also slow down due to Force Vector
corrections. As you can see, bearish expressions today conformed to the
expectation of slowing its hot bullish cycle. However, the Near-term Bull
continues.
STI
Tangential Support: None;
therefore the trend remains bearish. Reverse tangential constructions
offer high probability the bear will respond violently to any bullish
spurt that may form. This is expected closer to the end of January than on
the immediate horizon. This bear is nowhere near extinction. It will be
long lasting and deep! But for traders, there is some excitement in the
attempt to participate in bullish spurts from time to time. The solid
bullish spurt continues. For longer-term investors, cash is king until the
ETF’s and major indices topple bearish yellow. At that time, the
longer-term outlook will enhance obviations of directional intensity.
Reverse
Tangential Support: Being
constructed, fostering a very high probability of bearish sustainability.
However, the bullish spurt continues with only an increasing threat from
Force Vector corrections.
Immediate
Tactics: Cash is king except
for two extremely conservative buy signals on Friday, November 21, 2008
and several more “conservative” Quick-term and Short-term buy signals on
Friday, November 28, 2008. These recent buys are still holding.
Longer-term views should avoid buying when prices are below bearish yellow
curve. However, short-term interests should enjoy this bullish surge.
Current
Quick-term Bias: Bearish and
will remain so with the high number of Yellow Bears.
Current
Near-term Bias: Bullish bias
born on Friday, November 28, 2008 and still maintaining bullish
attributes, even though declining Force Vector behavior is somewhat
threatening.
Overall
Market Status: Near-term
configurations support bullish bias, while the Quick-term Indicant remains
encumbered with Yellow Bears. The near-term attributes were weakening in
their support of the baby bull, but have yet to succumb to the bear’s
desire. Now they are strengthening. As stated last Wednesday, keep in
mind Force Vectors need to “cool off” in the next few days.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Enhanced as volatility is significant and expected.
Volume:
The Near-term Bull is not
supported by volume, but normalcy will lean more toward obviating
directional intensity in a few weeks following the waning influence of low
holiday volume.
Near-term,
Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
To view the STI-Tangential Protection for ten major indices, click here.
The following
is a discussion of each of the ten major indices’ configurations. We will
continue doing this until we finalize the tour and complete documentation
of bull/bear signaling. The model, which removes all economic, corporate,
and other fundamental influences, in addition to normal seasonality, has
been thoroughly tested and validated. Documentation is a different matter
and it will be completed before the end of the year.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled bull for the 11-major indices an average
of 30.8-days ago. They are down by an average of 2.3% since their bull
signals.
DJIA
01/09/09-Fri-Force Vector, as expected are moving south and fostering
Near-term bearishness, but not yet disrupting the Near-term Bull. The
interaction with Vector Pressure will facilitate obviations of directional
intensity. The Bear will gain Near-term influence if the index interacts
with rising green curve and Force Vectors fall into bearish domains (below
Yellow N). 01/08/09-Thu-Force Vector’s are moving south, which is
non-bullish on a near-term basis. Do not be surprised at the Dow falling
to Near-term Bearish Green Curve in the next few days. Near-term bullish
sustainability should be obviated at that point. Also, Force Vector
interaction with Vector Pressure should enhance obviations of directional
intensity. 1/07/09-Wed-Index fell below bullish blue today due to
overheated Force Vectors. As stated yesterday, do not be surprised at
bearish behavior until Force Vector’s interact with Vector Pressure.
01/06/09-Tue-Same as yesterday. 01/05/09-Mon-Near-term bull remains solid.
Force Vector cycle is mature. So do not be surprised at meandering to
mildly bearish behavior. It will be interesting to see how the market
reacts to Force Vector interaction with Vector Pressure. The Near-term
Bull cycle will maintain sustainability if that Vector Pressure acts as
bearish resistance. 01/02/09-Fri-The Dow crossed above the Near-term Indicant’s Bullish Blue
Curve with today’s bullish aggression. The Force Vector cycle is mature,
which suggests bullish timidity on the near-term horizon. However, Force
Vector is also in bullish domains. Vector Pressure is neutral, which is
non-bearish.
DJ Composites
01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA. 01/08/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 1/07/09-Wed-Same as
DJIA. 01/06/09-Tue-Same as yesterday. 01/05/09-Mon-Near-term Bull is a bit
stronger than DJIA, but with similar attributes.
01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
DJ Transports
01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA. 01/08/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 1/07/09-Wed-Same as
DJIA. 01/06/09-Tue-Same as yesterday. 01/05/09-Mon-Same as DJC.
01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
DJ Utilities
01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA. 01/08/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 1/07/09-Wed-Same as
DJIA. 01/06/09-Tue-Same as yesterday. 01/05/09-Mon-Same as DJC.
Additionally, flat Near-term Blue bullish curve remains flat suggesting
some bearish risk. 01/02/09-Fri-Same
as DJIA, except the Force Vector cycle is not as mature, suggesting a
reduced bullish timidity.
NASDAQ
01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA, except Force Vectors remain in bullish domains.
01/08/09-Thu-Same as DJIA, except configurations are a bit stronger in
support of the Near-term Bull. 1/07/09-Wed-Same as DJIA, except Index
remains above bullish blue curve. 01/06/09-Tue-Same as yesterday.
01/05/09-Mon-Strong bull, but mature Force Vector is near a bullish peak.
01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
NASDAQ100
01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA. Yes, Force Vector is no longer in bullish
domains. 01/08/09-Thu-Same as NASDAQ. 1/07/09-Wed-Same as NASDAQ.
01/06/09-Tue-Same as yesterday. 01/05/09-Mon-Same as NASDAQ.
01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJ Utilities.
S&P500
01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA. 01/08/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 1/07/09-Wed-Same as
DJIA. 01/06/09-Tue-Same as yesterday. 01/05/09-Mon-Same as DJIA.
01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
S&P100
01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA, except Force Vectors remain in bullish domains
similar to that of the NASDAQ. 01/08/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 1/07/09-Wed-Same
as DJIA. 01/06/09-Tue-Same as yesterday. 01/05/09-Mon-Same as DJIA.
01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
S&P400
01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA. Weakened considerably on today’s bearish
behavior. 01/08/09-Thu-Same as NASDAQ. 1/07/09-Wed-Same as NASDAQ.
01/06/09-Tue-Same as yesterday. 01/05/09-Mon-Solid bull but maturing
bullish Force Vector is approaching non-bullishness on a near-term basis.
01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJ Utilities.
S&P600
01/09/09-Fri-Same as S&P400. 01/08/09-Thu-Same as NASDAQ, but with a bit
more bullish strength than the NASDAQ. This index may be too hot, so do
not be surprised at bearish aggression on a near-term basis.
1/07/09-Wed-Same as NASDAQ. 01/06/09-Tue-Same as yesterday.
01/05/09-Mon-The strongest of all near-term bulls, but maturing bullish
Force Vector suggests some cooling would be in order, but no where
invoking bearish aggression.
01/02/09-Same as DJ Utilities. Additionally, this is configuring with
solid bullish robustness.
NYSE
01/09/09-Fri-Same as DJIA. 01/08/09-Thu-Same as DJIA. 1/07/09-Wed-Same as
DJIA. 01/06/09-Tue-Same as yesterday. 01/05/09-Mon-Same as DJIA.
01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJ Utilities.
VIX (Market Contrarian)
01/09/09-Fri-Bullish behavior today was technically expected and indeed
fostered stock market bearishness which you saw today. It will be
interesting to observe Force Vector interaction with Vector Pressure next
week. 01/08/09-Thu-Vector Pressure fell into bearish domains today. That
should invoke VIX bullishness on a near-term basis and fostering overall
stock market near-term bearishness. 1/07/09-Wed-Same as the past two day,
except for the bearish resistance to this contrarian index’s Vector
Pressure falling into bearish domains. 01/06/09-Tue-Same as yesterday.
01/05/09-Mon-VIX continues to bias in favor of bear, which is bullish for
the stock market. Vector Pressure is nearing bearish domains.
01/02/09-Fri-Vector Pressure is nose
diving. It will encourage the bull for the major indices if Vector
Pressure falls into bearish domains.
Overall
Comment Regarding Major Indices: 01/09/09-Fri-Force Vectors pinnacled
earlier this week triggering the expected bearish response. Also,
fundamentally the U.S. Congress is back in session, which always fosters
bearish support. However, the Near-term Bull remains in tact and will not
expired unless Force Vectors fall into bearish domains and the various
indices fall to or below bearish green curve with expressed unanimity
among all the major indices. 01/08/09-Thu-Regardless of fundamental
reasoning, Force Vectors had to cool. They always do when peaking. This
time around, that cooling should invoke bearishness to non-bullish
behavior for the next few days. The Near-term Bull remains in tact in
spite of this natural phenomenon. 1/07/09-Wed-Force Vector cycle is mature
and is supporting non-bullishness. However, its impending decline, is
unimportant to the Near-term Bull. Its relevance and directional intensity
will be gauged on how it interacts with Vector Pressure. 01/06/09-Tue-Same
as yesterday except the Dow Utility’s Near-term Bull strengthened today.
All major indices have complete Near-term Bull attributes.
01/05/09-Mon-All major indices expressing near-term bullish unanimity,
which is bullish. The Dow Utilities remains the weakest, but going along
with the bullish bias. As long as unanimity remains, the Near-term Bull
remains in tact. Keep in mind the Quick-term remains as yellow bears. It
is unlikely there will be any interaction with the bearish yellow curve
until March. 01/02/09-Fri-Bullish
positioning remains solid along with supporting bullish directional
intensity. Maturing bullish cycle Force Vectors suggests some bullish
timidity, but remain non-bearish.
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bull on Friday, November 28 for both the
NYSE and NASDAQ as Force Vectors and other configurations shifted into
bullish support on a near-term basis. This bull signal stands, even with
recent bearish behavior. They are down 2.6% and up 2.3%, respectively,
since the November 28, 2008 bull signal. They are annualized at -2.6% and
20.4%, respectively. As stated last Wednesday, do not be surprised at
cooling, but all near-term attributes are not bearishly threatening.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
The NYSE and
NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators continue moving lethargically. Today’s
bearish aggression was not supported with increased volume, which limits
obviations of directional intensity other than being non-bearish in their
relationship. The major indices topped the bullish red curve on the volume
charts on January 5, 2009 for the first time since last May. That
apparently was outside the comfort zone of these two major indices as they
fell below bullish red today, but remain safely inside their respective
neutral zones. Rising bearish yellow curve offers some bullish hope for
sustaining the current Near-term Bull cycle.
Short-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were no
Near-term and no Quick-term buy or sell signals today.
The Near-term
Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 2.0%, annualizing at
18.8%. The NTI is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down 1.7% since their sell
signals an average of 2.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for only four ETF’s. They are up
83.7% since their buy signals 13.2-weeks ago. 27-ETF’s are down 33.8%
since their sell signals an average of 23.8-weeks ago.
Use the
Near-term Indicant for trading on those 17-ETF’s with hold signals
generated from the Quick-term Indicant on November 28, 2008. About half of
those Quick-term holds were triggered by the Near-term Indicant while the
14-avoided ETF’s were under the strict influence of the Quick-term Yellow
Bear rule. You will notice the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
several of the 14-avoided Quick-term Yellow Bears. Continue following the
Quick-term Yellow Bear rule of avoidance for those ETF’s until they engage
their bearish yellow curves. ETF#10-IBB (Chart
)
eclipsed bearish yellow a few days ago.
Do not be
surprised at bearish resistance to ETF’s crossing above bearish yellow.
Also, do not expect a continuance to Bullish Red Curves and beyond. The
Near-term Indicant will help you make short-term assessments of holding or
avoiding.
Most of the
regular Mutual Funds received sell signals in late 2007 and earlier this
year. As you know, all 100-Mutual Funds have been avoided since their sell
signals several weeks ago. That avoidance was triggered by the Mid-term
Indicant.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds.
As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points
since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell late last year and earlier this
year. The Mid-term Indicant will be updated this weekend with a link to
the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
The Near-term
Indicant is more aggressive in buying and selling, while the Mid-term
Indicant is much more passive. The Quick-term Indicant is somewhere in
between the two models. Click the following link to view the Quick-term
Indicant model.
Many of you
notice some uncharacteristic yellow bear buy signals for about half of the
ETF’s that were quickly followed with sell signals during October and
early November. The other half of the ETF’s followed the strict rule of
not buying yellow bears.
The Near-term
Indicant has been developed to provide greater visibility of this sort of
activity on the same charts as the Quick-term Indicant, as opposed to the
two charts.
Clicking the
following link will take you to a table that contains both the Near-term
and Quick-term Indicants. You will notice the red and yellow bearish
curves are the same as the previous Quick-term Indicant model. In other
words those attributes are the same as before. However, the difference is
the strict adherence to avoiding yellow bears; especially if Vector
Pressure is in bearish domains.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Current
Strategy-Short-term Indicant –
Jan 9, 2009-Fri-The declining Force Vectors are a natural element. That
attribute, although discomforting, is not enough to expire the Near-term
Bull that is now underway. The only ETF with a Near-term Bull signal that
is threatened by bearish ambition is ETF#11-GLD. There will be more about
that later. For the time being, holding those “conservative buys” for
November continues to be the recommendation, based predominantly on
bullish Vector Pressure and several Force Vectors continuing residence in
bullish domains. The Near-term Bull will expired if prices fall below
green curve and Force Vectors fall into bearish domains. If Force Vector
cycle is normal, then by mid next week, directional intensity should be
obviated by the impending interaction between Force Vector and Vector
Pressure. Jan 8, 2009-Thu-It is discerning when Force Vectors reverse to
the south. However, Vector Pressure is directionally bullish and thus
Near-term holding is appropriate until Force Vectors interact with Vector
Pressure and prices interact with Near-term Bearish Green Curve. The
nature of that interaction will facilitate the breadth of this Near-term
Bull cycle. Jan 7, 2009-Wed-As stated last Monday, maturing Force Vectors
were problematic for the Near-term Bull now underway. The bull ignored
that yesterday with a solid bullish expression, the bear’s response
suggested yesterday’s bullish bounce was inappropriate. Within a few days,
Force Vectors should interact with Vector Pressure, which should lend
toward obviations of directional intensity. Jan 6, 2009-Tue-Same as
yesterday, except the Near-term Indicant strengthened today. Jan 5,
2009-Mon-Near-term attributes remain solidly in support of the bull, but
maturing Force Vectors are problematic for the next few days. However,
there is no serious bearish threat. Jan 2, 2009-Fri-Today’s bullish
behavior strengthened the baby bull. Some of the indices and ETF’s are
developing into a robust configuration. Continue holding, but do not
assume this bull will develop into a 1990’s sort of configuration.
Near-term
and Quick-term Summary
The bearish
bias originating on September 5, 2008 expired on November 4 and replaced
with a new bullish bias. That bullish bias has expired as the bullish
spurt perished shortly after its origination. However, on November 28,
2008, a new bullish bias configured. This bias remains and is not
encountering any serious threats by the bear.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF
cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. It is excluded from overall ETF statistics
because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during
bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This exclusion is required
for convergent/divergent monitoring.
The former
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID on November 21, 2008. It was down 33.7% since then, as of Friday,
Dec 26, 2008. It continues to be down considerably since then. The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell on December 17, 2008. It is down 1.5%%
since then. You will notice the Quick-term Indicant in
the table adhered to the yellow bear rule and has not yet
signaled sell.
This ETF
crossed above bullish blue curve today, but as you can see from the chart,
its Force Vector remains well positioned in bearish domains. Continue
avoiding this volatile ETF.
Other
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources - This ETF was down 39.5% since the
Quick-term Indicant sell signal on July 24, 2008, as December 29, 2008. As
you can see from the table, the QTI adhered strictly to the yellow bear
rule with a buy and sell signal after July 24, 2008. The yellow bear rule
had it signal sell on September 2, 2008 and it is down 30.8% since then.
As previously stated, the Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until
Vector Pressure is positive and Yellow Bear expires. The Near-term
Indicant signaled buy for this ETF last Friday. It is down 3.0% since
then. The problem is a bullishly mature Force Vector, but with minimal
bearish threats on a Quick-term basis.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 4.1% since the NTI and QTI
signaled buy on December 11, 20008. It is annualized at 50.3% since then.
It recently crossed above bearish yellow, fell below, and then back above.
After finding some comfort above bullish red curve, it apparently was
uncomfortable and has succumbed back into neutrality. It was attacked by
the gold bear the past two days. The gold bull should respond to this
aggression by the gold bear. Unfortunately, Force Vector is now in bearish
domains, but its price is nowhere near the near-term’s bearish green
curve. Thus, the hold signal remains.
ETF#14-Long Government is up 18.5% since the NTI buy signal on Nov
17, 2008. We’re going to hold unless it becomes a Yellow Bear. As stated
the past several days, this is now easy to do as bearish yellow curve is
rapidly rising to the north. You will notice it fell below the NTI’s
Bullish Blue Curve on January 2, 2009. However, that had no impact on the
NTI’s position with this fund. It has significant long-term bullish
potential, which is based purely on emotion. It also retains the advantage
for holding by being a Quick-term Red Bull.
Although
Force Vector is deep inside bearish domains, it has not yet interacted
with the near-term’s bearish green curve.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Click
Quick-term Indicant for all ETF’s.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Divergence
versus Convergence
Unfortunately,
the market closed with bearish convergence last week. Two of the last
three weeks have endured the combination of bearish
convergence/divergence. This suggests increasing bearishness.
Indicant
Conclusion
There were
again no Mid-term Indicant buy signals for Mutual Funds. All 100-mutual
funds are with avoid signals. All 100-Mutual Funds tracked by the Mid-term
Indicant are down by an average of 32.3% since their sell signals an
average of 30.2-weeks ago. Although the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant
models are holding several of the ETF’s tracked, the Mid-term Indicant
will not signal buy for most of the Mutual Funds until they remove
themselves from bearish domains. Current configurations suggest it could a
year or longer for that to occur.
As stated the
past nine weeks, interest rates are falling, which is bullish. Oil prices
are declining. Those two elements, alone, are typically enough to
stimulate bullish activity. Trader behavior should ignite a “near-term”
bullish spurt cycle, even in the face of sour economic outlooks.
Although
commodity prices have been stable the past several weeks, deflation
remains as an increasing concern. If it manifests, a 2500 Dow by 2010/11
may be optimistic. Even with that threat, a bullish spurt has been
attempting to configure for the past several weeks. The near-term cycle
gained some bullish traction last week.
Keep up with
the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift
quickly.
Do not get
lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to
enjoy hold signals.
The daily
updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Hyperlinks
To access all
major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click
the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are
inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on
the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way
back.
Happy
Investing,
www.indicant.net
01/11/09
January 4,
2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report
Volume 1, Issue 01 ISSN 1526 6516 © The
Indicant Stock Market Report
History and
Future
Sometimes
history repeats itself. Sometimes it charts an entirely different course.
The trick is in knowing if it is about to repeat or set forth an entirely
new set of data. Thomas Edison, Henry Ford, and the Wright brothers
arguably did more to change the course of history in a positive way than
any other individuals did in the last century.
Of course,
there is always a negative for any positive. Cars kill about 50,000 people
or so each year. Yet, many lives are saved from injuries and illness that
was made possible by the speed and transportation abilities of
automobiles.
The light bulb
introduced wiring that causes millions of dollars of damage each year from
the fires due to faulty electrical flow. On the other hand, many more
youngsters are able to educate themselves at night, as opposed to having
to quit studying when the candle burns out.
Airplanes have
generated many pleasures for vacationers for about eighty years. People
all over the world have seen places they would not have been able to a
hundred years ago. Unfortunately, planes have transported hate and bombs,
killing hundreds of thousands of innocent people over the last seventy or
so years. 911 was a classical example of the transportation of hate.
Hate, once is
place, can only be extinguished through extinction. If the world economy
does not improve soon, hate will increase. Domestic crime will increase. A
reduced quality of life will enhance militarism abroad. World war sort of
conflicts will expand.
Politicians
have always been the source of economic negatives. They are always the
culprit in any economic catastrophe. That is because their decisions
regarding money and people are without personal financial risk. By
default, their decisions are poor.
The trick now
for world leaders is to work together to fend off increased militarism
that always increases with economic calamity. The solution is simple. All
politicians should engage in drunken behavior or simply go the golf course
and enjoy their phony status of elitism. If they do that around the world,
problems will diminish. If they continue in their attempt to strengthen
their power, about half of them around the world will die from the
military conflicts that will arise. The problem with their sick brains is
they think the other side is where the deaths will be. Along the way,
millions of innocents will be victimized, as has always been the case of
any political cause.
Think for a
moment about the character of a person who is bent on a career in
politics. Their only skill is a gift of speech. Speechmakers, like snake
oil salesmen, can only talk. Not one of them had the ability or risk
taking exposure of a Henry Ford, Thomas Edison, or the Wright brothers.
Not one of them added economic value or wealth.
A few weeks
ago, the Indicant referred you to several years of increased socialism and
protectionism. Let’s take a look at the facts as opposed to some good
sounding politician claiming “fairness.”
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTIRYS-01-DJI-1928-1932.htm
The above
charts shows the 1929 Dow peaked with Smoot-Hawley protectionism. There is
one known fact; the earth is finite space and within that space,
competitive forces rise. Politicians offer nothing but harm in their
attempt to equalize those competitive forces. A common response to that
equalization effort is war.
Political
behavior is always local. A biased political adjustment in the United
States will have an international impact. That is because politicians are
speechmakers; not thinkers. When a few of them actually do think, their
personal risks are not at stake and thus a poor thought manifests.
The below link
shows how the stock market reacted to increasing political influences
around the world just ahead of World War II.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTIRYS-01-DJI-1936-1940.htm
FDR was
supporting unionism for one and only one reason; more votes. Alfred P.
Sloan spent many of his great years at General Motors fighting FDR. FDR
did not have to pay the union workers. He had no personal financial risks
in supporting unions.
Political
support for unions is wrong, but it is the lifeline to political success.
If Walter P. Chrysler had remained as a shop worker in the union,
competitive forces would not have manifested. Those competitive forces
helped lower the cost of the automobile, enhanced its reliability and
product appeal. Politicians had nothing to do with that. Imagine how many
people took the “easy/relaxed” route of remaining in their middle class
unionism that could have joined Walter P. Chrysler and enhanced yet more
competition.
Let’s scan
ahead to the 1970’s as most of you know there is little we can do about
politician’s skill at jibber-jabber and fooling the masses with their
lying ways. After all, you only read this to figure out the stock market’s
directional intensity, as opposed to solving all the world’s problems.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTIRYS-01-DJI-1972-1976.htm
In the study
of the stock market, the 1970’s is one of the more interesting periods.
The Dow fell by the same amount as it is now down. It took a little longer
for it to crash from early 1973 with the bear expiring in late 1974. That
was two solid years of bear market behavior.
There is a
chance the current Dow could rise like it did in 1975 and 1976. The idea
here is that low interest rates are not going to generate more savings and
less spending by consumers. That is the contemporary popular thinking. Who
is going to save money at such low interest rates? And the recent bear
market has again fostered a distrust of the stock market for many. So,
savings is not going to be as significant as one is made to believe.
Low oil prices
will remain if the world continues to slow. Rising socialism will do that
will depress economic activity. There is little doubt the stock market
will remain bearish on a longer-term basis with increasing socialism.
However, a year or two of robust bullishness would not upset the strategic
view of long-term bearishness.
U.S.
politicians no longer have the influence they once had. There are about a
billion people in China, who have tasted the pleasures of capitalism. They
are a smart people. This time around, it is unlikely they will support
naysayers of capitalism in their political ranks. Their populace now knows
how to build weapons and have the capacity to do so. With that, political
forces can be halted somewhat when compared to the past when the populace
only had rocks and sticks to fend off political aggression.
If politicians
in the West slow capitalism, then militarism will increase around the
world. The same populace who voted those power hungry idiots into office
will be drabbed in military clothing. Many will be distraught of a
self-inflicting sort of way, just as the Germans paid a hefty price for
their cheering support for Adolph Hitler. Being overly exuberant for any
political leader always brings grief for there is zero real value
garnished from such support.
So, with all
that, the trick is to participate in a nice bullish rally of a year or two
before the bear resumes control. Of course, one would need the stock
market to perform with a bullish cycle in the next year or two.
There are two
major problems confronting the idea of a bullish stock market in the next
two years, like that nice bullish leg in 1975 and 1976. 2009 is a post
election year. Post election years have a long history of being bearish.
As a matter of fact, $10,000 invested in 1832 only in presidential post
election years is less than $10,000 today. So, do not be surprised at
strong bearish behavior this year.
The other
major problem is in U.S. politics. Right now, the congressional majority
and executive branches of government are from the same political party.
That relationship is bearish based on recent history. Solid bullish
behavior in the 1970’s, like most, follow mid-term election years. If
history repeats itself, the solid bullish cycle may not start until in
late 2010.
Much depends
on political interference. If the political leaders do not party and not
play a lot of golf, like Ike did, then expect strong bearish expressions
the next two years. If political leaders continue meddling into free
markets, expect bearish severity, such as a 2000 Dow by 2010.
The North
American automakers lost market share because they played too much golf
and drank too much. Capitalists cannot party. It is hard work being a
capitalist. But it is also the most rewarding; producing a product of
appeal and making money at it offers a heightened self actualization.
Using force and coercion, which is the only method available to
politicians, offers nothing to enhance self-esteem.
The good news
is this! There is no need to speculate if history repeats or charts a new
course. The Short-term Indicant will inform you of bull or bear cycles and
their nature. You will have to work at it. Buying and holding is no longer
a viable option. Too many pundits on television have stated too many times
to too many people, “stay the course.” Since 2000, that has lost you money
and could lose you a lot more.
The Mid-term
Indicant charts were updated this weekend for the next four year cycle.
Clicking the following link will show you the buyer and holder since the
year 2000 is down from $1.5-million to $1.3-million while the Indicant
investor is up by $2-million since then. Well, that is a stretch since
none of you are over a hundred years old. However, the Indicant investor
is ahead of the buyer and holder since 2000 and even more since 1900.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTIRYS-0005-01-DJI.htm
The top
portion of the
Indicant’s home page has a table that illustrates the Mid-term
Indicant’s performance relative to buy and hold against the major indices.
The charts and tables have been updated and new charts started for the
2009-2012 years, which monitors stock market progress against the
political cycles. Feel free to click those links to see how the Indicant
fares against buy and hold. Many of you have been members since 2001 and
can relate to this recent history. Sometimes a review of history can help
determine the future course.
Finally, the
presidential election year of 2008 was the most bearish on record (since
1832). The Dow finished down 33.8% in 2008. The former record, Woodrow
Wilson’s 1924 was down 32.9%. Interestingly, the post election year of
1925, was up 12.7%, which was one of the most bullish on record.
Keep your eye
on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate
sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity
underway.
Weekly
Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant
Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply
scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.
The Mid-term
Indicant generated three buy signals and no sell signals. There have been
518-sell signals since October 26, 2007 and 32-buy signals since October
31, 2008.
In addition
to the buy signals, the Mid-term
Indicant is signaling hold for only 33 of the 344-stocks and funds tracked
by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average
of 60.2%. That annualizes to 73.4%. The Mid-term Indicant has been
signaling hold for these 33-stocks and funds for an average of 42.7-weeks.
Although
there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 308-stocks and funds of the 344-
tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average
of 32.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of
32.9-weeks ago.
The Mid-term
Indicant is avoiding all Mutual Funds, except for the ETF’s tracked daily.
All one-hundred funds are down an average of 30.4% since their sell
signals an average of 29.2-weeks ago. Even though a bullish spurt is
possible, the Mid-term Indicant will be more conservative before signaling
buy for these funds. Bearish yellow must be toppled first.
One year ago,
on Jan 4, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 186-stocks and funds out
of the 345 tracked for an average of 138.2-weeks. They were up by an
average of 160.9% (annualized at 60.5%). There were 102-avoided stocks and
funds at that time. There were also 57-sell signals on this weekend last
year. In addition to those sell signals, avoided stocks and funds were
down an average of 13.9% since their respective sell signals an average of
19.6-weeks earlier.
The Mid-term
Indicant was signaling hold for 312-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked
two years ago on Jan 5, 2007. They were up by an average of 100.0%
(annualized at 58.4%) since their respective buy signals an average of
89.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 30-stocks and funds
at that time. They were down an average of 13.7% since their respective
sell signals an average of 21.2-weeks earlier.
There were
292-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jan 6, 2006 since their buy
signals an average of 86.3-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of
110.8% (annualized at 66.8%). There were 53-avoided stocks and funds at
that time. They were down by an average of 10.5% from their respective
sell signals an average of 22.5-weeks earlier.
On Dec 31,
2004, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 304-stocks and funds
out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 73.3% (annualized at
66.2%) since their buy signals an average of 57.6-weeks earlier. The
Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 15-stocks and funds at that time. They were
down by an average of 38.6% since their sell signals an average of
60.1-weeks earlier.
Five years
ago, on Jan 3, 2004, there were 286-hold signals for stocks and funds out
of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an
average of 57.7% (annualized at 83.9%) since their respective buy signals
an average of 35.8-weeks earlier. There were six-avoided stocks and funds
then. They were down an average of 28.6% since their respective sell
signals an average of 38.6-weeks earlier.
On Jan 4,
2003, there were 277-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing
of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an
average of 19.1%, annualizing at 57.7%. There were 12-avoided stocks and
funds then. They were down by an average of 25.9% since their sell signals
an average of 23.0-weeks earlier.
Summary of
Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week
To maintain
appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals
for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is
in the member’s only section.
Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.
As repeatedly
stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single
stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only
love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management
stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.
All updated
information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the
below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Comments
about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend
Even though
Quick-term and Short-term configurations are increasingly supporting the
heart and soul of bullish seasonality, the Mid-term Indicant may not
participate in much buying. Longer-term elements are not bullish even if
the heart and soul of bullish seasonality produces exciting bullish
configurations.
There are
only about four weeks remaining for the heart and soul of bullish
seasonality. So far, this historical standard has been disappointing.
However, configurations still support it, albeit a bit shaky.
Click the
following link that will take you to the tangential protection charts.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm
The
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report
The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on
an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website
for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market
report for the last trading day of each week is imbedded in this weekly
report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for
much longer than the last twelve months.
The Daily
Indicant Stock Market Report for the last trading day of the current week
is near the conclusion of this weekly stock market report. It is emailed
each weekend, separately, so you can read it, either as a separate
document, or in this document.
The
Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend
The Dow is up
24.0% since its secular low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 46.5% and
the S&P500 is up 20.0% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up
59.5%.
The Dow is
down 36.2% since its last closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down
40.5% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600 is down 38.8% since
its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007.
The NASDAQ is
down 67.7% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500
is down 39.0% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is
down by 22.9% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s
roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be
surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.
The Dow is up
2.9% so far this year. The NASDAQ is up 3.5% this year. Keep in mind the
post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since 1832. So
far, with only one day of trading, bullish expressions are incongruent
with historical standards. However, last year, 2008, was also incongruent
with historical standards by being bearish and in record setting fashion.
As stated for
several weeks, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality is again
attempting to configure. It performed nicely last week even though it has
disappointed for the last several weeks. It remains embryonic and thus
vulnerable.
The NASDAQ
year-to-date performance was bearish by 7.2% through this week in 2001.
Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%.
The NASDAQ was
up by 1.5% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic
bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%.
The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 3.7%. It finished up in that
solidly bullish year by 50.0%. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 0.2%.
It was flat% in 2005. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were
meandering bear markets. In 2006, it was up 5.8% on this weekend and
finished that year with a 9.5%-gain. It was up by 0.3% at this time in
2007 and finished that year up by 9.8%. It was down 1.6% at this time last
year. The NASDAQ finished down 40.5% in 2008.
Keep your eye
on the daily stock market report.
Stop Loss
Management
The Mid-term
Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% due to increasing bullish
influences for your longer-term holdings. The Mid-term Indicant will be
passive in generating buy signals even with the support of a Quick-term
bull cycle. The longer-term attributes remain configured in support of the
bear.
If your stock
or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set
your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing
stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop
loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is
greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at
the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 10% trailing stop loss.
If you are up
by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund,
then use a 20% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If
you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management.
Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely
for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish
spending and excessive concerns about social issues. Those types are more
interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making
you money. High performing companies remain focused on honoring the
investments made by their shareholders.
In a few
instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down
from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If
you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and
funds with those “bearish” attributes. They are configured for a possible
rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses
mentioned in this report. Use the Quick-term Indicant as a guide in your
decision-making processes. If the stock price is falling in a Quick-term
Bear market, it is not advisable to buy.
Do not short
on stocks if they are up from an avoid signal. Stocks go up more often
than they go down. Stocks have a tendency to march to their own drumbeat
when rising. Some stocks rise and continue to rise in the most severe of
bear markets. Short selling opens up an opportunity for the snakes on Wall
Street to take everything you own. They can cause a stock to rise at their
whim and without any regard to fundamental reason. It usually does not
make sense to bet against the sweat and toil of hard-working people.
Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates
Click the
above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.
Interest rates
finally leveled at record low levels. That normally fosters a bullish
stock market.
Gold continued
rebounding the past three weeks. After extraordinary bearishness, other
commodities finally stabilized last week. The cycle remains bearish
though, but right now indicators of stabilization should be considered as
economically bullish.
Prior
deflationary concerns have paused with last week’s stabilization of
commodities and rising stock prices.
The U.S.
dollar remains strong as the U.S. economy is perceived to have the
greatest chance of returning to robustness when compared to other
countries.
As stated
eleven weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are
complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with some gusto.
This is not technical. This is fundamental.
As stated
eight weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be
followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly
productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.”
As stated five
weeks ago, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near expiration.
Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from time to time,
but the trend should remain bearish throughout the next year and into
2010. However, it is okay to participate in the bullish spurt that
originated on November 28, 2008. Investments should be conservative
though.
Fear
Metrics: Economics and Terrorism
Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its
April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on
October 3, 2008. It is down 34.7% since that sell signal. It enjoyed
significant bullishness last week after two weeks of solid bearish
behavior.
Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is down 16.0% since the Midterm Indicant
signaled sell on August 1, 2008. It has been bullish the past two weeks.
Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 141.2% from since the Mid-term
Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3,
2008. It is down 18.4% since that sell signal.
Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term
Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on
October 3, 2008. It is down 38.0% since that sell signal.
State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August
16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It
is down 50.7% since that sell signal.
Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant
signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3,
2008. It is down 20.2% since that sell signal.
Energy related
funds were bullish last week. They have endured significant bearishness in
15 of the last 21-weeks.
The Near-term
Indicant signaled, buy, for
ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on last Friday, January 2, 2009.
It had been down 30.1% since the QTI signaled sell on August 4, 2008. The
Quick-term Indicant continues to signal avoid since September 2, 2008. It
is down 28.7% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its
previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the previous August 4, 2008
sell signal. This fund has been bearish in 30 of the past 50-weeks and in
21 of the past 30-weeks. This ETF remains configured for bearishness on a
Short-term basis, but could be challenged in the event it climbs above
Quick-term’s bearish yellow curve.
The Near-term
Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the
GLD-ETF#11 on December 11. It is up 6.9% since that buy signal. It
gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8,
2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to
26.0%. Although this fund on a short-term basis is bullish, it is not yet
solidly bullish.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices
There were no new bull signals and no
bear signals.
The ten major
indices are up by an average of 4.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled
bull for all ten indices on November 28, 2008. That annualizes at 215.8%
so do not be surprised at some cooling off.
Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.
The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at
$32,070,221
That beats buy
and hold performance of $1,374,515 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow
stocks in 1900. The
MTI S&P500 is at $152,525. That beats buy and hold’s $91,272 on a
December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The
MTI-NASDAQ is at $198,617. That beats buy and hold’s $56,595 on an
October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy
and hold by 2,233.2%, 67.1%, and 250.9%, respectively, for these indices
as of this past week.
The Indicant’s
percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull
signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because
the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the MTI-RYS model avoids
bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid
the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000%
covering the past 100+ years.
Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks
Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks
Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks
Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks
Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds
Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.
The Mid-term
Indicant signaled buy for
ProFunds Ultra Short on September 12, 2008 and it signaled sell
on October 31, 2008. It was up over 30% since that September buy signal.
It remains too risky to hold for the time being. Once the heart and soul
of bullish seasonality expires, this fund will receive a buy signal; most
likely in January 2009. It is down 7.1% since the October 31, 2008 sell
signal. This fund is volatile and too risky to buy at this time. Six weeks
ago, it was up 54.5% since that sell signal. As you can see, it plummeted
since then and expected to continue to do so as long as the Near-term
Indicant continues suggesting a bullish bias.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds
Always
remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good
way to mix your investments.
Long Term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average
The blue-chip
Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991.
Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles
since 1920.
The Dow is up
212.1% (annualized at 12.3%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull
896-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term
Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest
rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. A
link to the Long-term Indicant is below:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm
Short-term
Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Near-term
Cycle: All major indices are
configured with near-term bullish attributes, excluding contrarian, VIX.
Minor bearish threats have expired with the exception of maturing Force
Vector bullish cycles. Still holding with bullish configurations. Bullish
unanimity remains on a near-term basis, which supports bullish ambition.
The S&P600-Small Cap Index (Chart)
is configuring with solid
robustness.
STI
Tangential Support: None;
therefore the trend remains bearish. Reverse tangential constructions
offer high probability the bear will respond violently to any bullish
spurt that may form. This is again expected closer to the end of January
than on the immediate horizon. This bear is nowhere near extinction. It
will be long lasting and deep! But for traders, there is some excitement
in the attempt to participate in bullish spurts from time to time. A solid
bullish spurt is forming. For longer-term investors, cash is king until
the ETF’s and major indices topple bearish yellow.
Reverse
Tangential Support: Being
constructed, fostering a very high probability of bearish sustainability.
However, there remains potential for a bullish spurt, which is underway.
Immediate
Tactics: Cash is king except
for two extremely conservative buy signals on Friday, November 21, 2008
and several more “conservative” Quick-term and Short-term buy signals on
Friday, November 28, 2008. These recent buys are still holding.
Longer-term views should avoid buying when prices are below bearish yellow
curve. However, short-term interests should enjoy this bullish surge.
Current
Quick-term Bias: Bearish and
will remain so with the high number of Yellow Bears.
Current
Near-term Bias: Bullish bias
born on Friday, November 28, 2008.
Overall
Market Status: Near-term
configurations support bullish bias, while the Quick-term Indicant remains
encumbered with Yellow Bears. The near-term attributes were weakening in
their support of the baby bull, but have yet to succumb to the bear’s
desire. Those attributes were strengthened today with the S&P600-Small
Caps leading the way.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Enhanced as volatility is significant and expected.
Volume:
Lethargy not supportive of
near-term bull cycle, but attributed slanted due to depressed holiday
volume.
Near-term,
Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
To view the STI-Tangential Protection for ten major indices, click here.
The following
is a discussion of each of the ten major indices’ configurations. We will
continue doing this until we finalize the tour and complete documentation
of bull/bear signaling. The model, which removes all economic, corporate,
and other fundamental influences, in addition to normal seasonality, has
been thoroughly tested and validated. Documentation is a different matter
and it will be completed before the end of the year.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled bull for the 11-major indices an average
of 30.8-days ago. They are down by an average of 2.3% since their bull
signals.
DJIA
12/26/08-Fri-The Near-term Bull is losing momentum. The Bullish Blue Curve
is leveling and lacking the desired robustness. Force Vectors have dipped
into bearish domains. However, the Force Vector cycle is mature and Vector
Pressure remains neutral with a bullish slope to it. Those two attributes
support bullish ambition on a short-term basis. 12/29/08-Mon-Today’s mild
bearish expression did little to change last Friday’s observations.
However, Force Vector did climb back above bearish domains and now resides
in the neutral zone. Current configurations suggest this Near-term Bull
lacks ambition. The bullish blue curve is relaxing a bit too much for
near-term sustainability. However, it has not yet collapsed and remains
with a minor degree of bullish substance. 12/30/08-Tue-Today’s bullish
behavior added some strength, but the Near-term Bull remains vulnerable.
You should notice Force Vector crossed above Vector Pressure today. If you
scan your eyeballs to the left about an inch, you will see Force Vector
succumb to bearish influences when approaching Vector Pressure last
September/October. The next few days behavior will increase obviations of
directional intensity on a Near-term basis. 12/31/08-Wed-Bullish behavior
again strengthened this bull. Most Near-term attributes are bullish; Force
Vectors are again in bullish domains and Vector Pressure is rising from
the neutral zone. Both the Near-term Blue Bullish Curve and Near-term
Bearish Green curves are directionally bullish. The primary near-term
concern is the increasingly relaxed configuration of the Near-term Bullish
Blue Curve. 01/02/09-Fri-The Dow crossed above the Near-term Indicant’s
Bullish Blue Curve with today’s bullish aggression. The Force Vector cycle
is mature, which suggests bullish timidity on the near-term horizon.
However, Force Vector is also in bullish domains. Vector Pressure is
neutral, which is non-bearish.
DJ Composites
12/26/08-Fri-Same as DJIA. 12/29/08-Mon-Same as DJIA except Force Vector
is resisting the gravity of bearish domains, which is non-bearish on a
near-term basis. 12/30/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/31/08-Wed-Same as DJIA.
01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
DJ Transports
12/26/08-Fri-Same as DJIA except Force Vectors have not fallen into
bearish domains. 12/29/08-Mon-Same as DJ Composites. 12/30/08-Tue-Same as
DJIA. 12/31/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
DJ Utilities
12/26/08-Fri-Same as Dow Transports. 12/29/08-Mon-Same as DJ Composites.
12/30/08-Tue-Same as DJIA, except Force Vector in a bit stronger bullish
position, approaching bullish domains. 12/30/08-Tue-Force Vector continues
dipping to the south. Bullish Blue is dipping to the south. This index
threatens bullish unanimity. If Force Vector dips into bearish domains
with a declining Blue Bullish curve, a new Near-term Bear will be born.
12/31/08-Wed-Same as DJIA, except the Near-term Bullish Blue Curve is now
directionally bearish. 01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJIA, except the Force Vector
cycle is not as mature, suggesting a reduced bullish timidity.
NASDAQ
12/26/08-Fri-Retaining bullish configurations. Although not solid, it is
positioned to offer bearish resistance. 12/29/08-Mon-Force Vector fell
below Vector Pressure today, reflecting bearish ambition. However, this
Near-term Bull remains with a relatively strong Near-term bullish
configuration. 12/30/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/31/08-Wed-Same as DJIA except
this index is now above the Near-term Bullish Blue Curve. If this
configuration remains, then it should displaced the relaxing nature of the
Near-term Blue Curve and foster a continuation of the Near-term bull
cycle. 01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
NASDAQ100
12/26/08-Fri-Same as NASDAQ, except Force Vector fell below Vector
Pressure offering a configuration that sometimes incites a bullish
response. 12/29/08-Mon-Same as NASDAQ. 12/30/08-Tue-Same as DJIA,
including Force Vector crossing above Vector Pressure today.
12/31/08-Wed-Same as DJIA with the exception that Force Vectors remain in
the neutral zone. 01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJ Utilities.
S&P500
12/26/08-Fri-Same as Dow Composites. 12/29/08-Mon-Same as DJ Composites.
12/30/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/31/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 01/02/09-Fri-Same as
DJIA.
S&P100
12/26/08-Fri-Same as Dow Composites. 12/29/08-Mon-Same as DJIA, except its
Force Vector remains in bearish domains. 12/30/08-Tue-Same as DJIA.
12/31/08-Wed-Same as DJIA. 01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJIA.
S&P400
12/26/08-Fri-Bullish Blue Curve maintaining degree of robustness. Force
Vector cycle is in neutral zone. Although not configuring strongly for the
bull, it is more so configured non-bearishly. 12/29/08-Mon-Bullish Blue is
losing some robustness, but configurations remain in support of the
Near-term Bull. 12/30/08-Tue-Same as DJIA. 12/31/08-Wed-Same as NASDAQ.
01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJ Utilities.
S&P600
12/26/08-Fri-All attributes remain configured in support of the bull.
12/29/08-Mon-Index fell below the Near-term Blue Bullish curve today, but
remains in solid support of the Near-term Bull cycle now underway. Force
Vectors remain inside bullish domains. 12/30/08-Tue-This Near-term Bull
remains the strongest of the nine major indices. Its declining Force
Vector fell from bullish domains today, but its bearishly moving cycle is
mature. That suggests bullish potential. You should also notice this index
is vacillating around its Near-term Bullish Blue curve. A glance to the
past by looking on the left hand side of the chart illustrates this as a
solid bullish attribute. 12/31/08-Wed-Same as NASDAQ, but with a bit more
bullish robustness. 01/02/09-Same as DJ Utilities. Additionally, this is
configuring with solid bullish robustness.
NYSE
12/26/08-Fri-Same as Dow Composites. 12/29/08-Mon-Same as DJ Composites.
12/30/08-Tue-Very similar to DJIA except Force Vector remains below Vector
Pressure. This bull is a bit stronger than the DJU. 12/31/08-Wed-Same as
NASDAQ100. 01/02/09-Fri-Same as DJ Utilities.
VIX (Market Contrarian)
12/26/08-Fri-Remains configured with Near-term bearishness but mature
Force Vector cycle not supportive of robustness in either direction, as
its bearish cycle is mature. 12/29/08-Mon-VIX continues to weaken, but
somewhat passively. However, its configurations remain in support of its
Near-term Bull cycle. 12/30/08-Tue-This continues with bearish positioning
and direction with the exception of its Force Vector. However, the Force
Vector is not threatening as it is deep inside bearish domains.
12/31/08-Wed-Same as yesterday. 01/02/09-Fri-Vector Pressure is nose
diving. It will encourage the bull for the major indices if Vector
Pressure falls into bearish domains.
Overall
Comment Regarding Major Indices:
12/26/08-Fri-Mixed configurations with increasing non-bullish support
suggests meandering behavior would not be out of order. Strong bearish
behavior in the next few days would generate expiration to the Near-term
Bull. The S&P600 continues displaying resistant configurations to bearish
ambition. 12/29/08-Mon-There is little difference from last Friday.
Today’s mild bearish behavior enhanced non-bullish configurations, but the
S&P600 continues with strong Near-term Bullish Configurations. The
Quick-term Indicant remains a yellow bear. 12/30/08-Tue-Today’s above
average bullish behavior strengthened the Near-term Bull somewhat. The
major indices continue expressing Near-term bullish unanimity, which is
bullish. If they break apart into their own paths, then this bullish spurt
will be near its conclusion. 12/31/08-Wed-Same as yesterday; near-term
bullish unanimity. It remains fragile, but all are configured with a
near-term bullish bias. 01/02/09-Fri-Bullish positioning remains solid
along with supporting bullish directional intensity. Maturing bullish
cycle Force Vectors suggests some bullish timidity, but remain
non-bearish.
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bull on Friday, November 28 for both the
NYSE and NASDAQ as Force Vectors and other configurations shifted into
bullish support on a near-term basis. This bull signal stands, even with
recent bearish behavior. They are up 2.3% and 6.3%, respectively, since
the November 28, 2008 bull signal. They are annualized at 24.3% and 65.6%,
respectively. That annualized projection is not likely to occur in 2009.
(Last Friday’s report erroneously reported the Dow was down 4.1%. It
should have stated it was down 3.1%).
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
The NYSE and
NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators continue moving lethargically, which does
not support meaningful projections of directional intensity. Light holiday
volume continues to persist. The current configuration of lethargic
behavior suggests there is little ambition in the Near-term Bull cycle now
underway. However, light holiday volume is influencing that.
More
meaningful volume relationships will be available in early January. As you
can see, lethargic volume paralleled recent bullishness. That suggests
limited interest in a sustainable bull market, but a more refined outlook
can be garnished early next month when volume intensity returns to normal.
As stated on
Wednesday, December 3, you should notice the NYSE and NASDAQ are very
close to the minimum point in early 2003. That should be a technical stop
gap to the bearish onslaught on a Short-term basis. The probability of a
bullish spurt is waning somewhat. Most attributes are supporting bullish
spurt behavior on a near-term basis, albeit weakening somewhat, but
holding with near-term bullish configurations.
You should
also notice the indices topped their bullish red curves to start off the
new year today. It is unlikely economic conditions warrant Red Bull
configurations. Be cautious of bearish responses to interactions with
bullish red curves noted on the
Indicant Volume Indicator charts.
Short-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There was one
Near-term and one Quick-term buy signal today, January 2, 2009. There were
no sell signals.
The Near-term
buy signal was for ETF#03-XLE.
Click this sentence to view its chart.
The
Quick-term buy signal was for ETF#10-IBB.
Click this sentence to view its chart.
The Near-term
Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up 6.4%, annualizing at
68.6%. The NTI is avoiding two ETF’s. They are up 0.5% since their sell
signals an average of 1.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for only three ETF’s. They are up
28.9% since their buy signals 16.2-weeks ago. 27-ETF’s are down 30.9%
since their sell signals an average of 22.8-weeks ago.
Use the
Near-term Indicant for trading on those 17-ETF’s with hold signals
generated from the Quick-term Indicant on November 28, 2008. About half of
those Quick-term holds were triggered by the Near-term Indicant while the
14-avoided ETF’s were under the strict influence of the Quick-term Yellow
Bear rule. You will notice the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
several of the 14-avoided Quick-term Yellow Bears. Continue following the
Quick-term Yellow Bear rule of avoidance for those ETF’s until they engage
their bearish yellow curves. ETF#10-IBB (Chart
)
eclipsed bearish yellow today.
Do not be
surprised at bearish resistance to ETF’s crossing above bearish yellow.
Also, do not expect a continuance to Bullish Red Curves and beyond. The
Near-term Indicant will help you make short-term assessments of holding or
avoiding.
Most of the
regular Mutual Funds received sell signals in late 2007 and earlier this
year. As you know, all 100-Mutual Funds have been avoided since their sell
signals several weeks ago. That avoidance was triggered by the Mid-term
Indicant.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds.
As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points
since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell late last year and earlier this
year. The Mid-term Indicant will be updated this weekend with a link to
the member’s section.
The Near-term
Indicant is more aggressive in buying and selling, while the Mid-term
Indicant is much more passive. The Quick-term Indicant is somewhere in
between the two models. Click the following link to view the Quick-term
Indicant model.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/Supplements/Dec/2008-1229.htm
Many of you
notice some uncharacteristic yellow bear buy signals for about half of the
ETF’s that were quickly followed with sell signals during October and
early November. The other half of the ETF’s followed the strict rule of
not buying yellow bears.
The Near-term
Indicant has been developed to provide greater visibility of this sort of
activity on the same charts as the Quick-term Indicant, as opposed to the
two charts.
Clicking the
following link will take you to a table that contains both the Near-term
and Quick-term Indicants. You will notice the red and yellow bearish
curves are the same as the previous Quick-term Indicant model. In other
words those attributes are the same as before. However, the difference is
the strict adherence to avoiding yellow bears; especially if Vector
Pressure is in bearish domains.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
The link to
the charts is in the far right hand column. You will also notice the
charts are bigger than the previous charts. The Force Vectors and Vector
Pressure data is on the top of the charts. Sometimes they are on the
bottom section of the charts depending on the behavior of the ETF. There
is no significance of this other than conveying the chart information in
the most simplistic manner.
Near-term and
Quick-term performance data is in the table. A summary will be forthcoming
as the data matures. Until then, put the above link in your favorites
folder. It will be updated every evening.
Current
Strategy-Short-term Indicant -
December 26, 2008-Fri-The Near-term Indicant Bull is encountering bearish
resistance, but too many of the ETF’s and major indices are not
configuring with bearish support. Although without complete bearish
support there is little bullish support at this time. The only attribute
offering near-term bullishness are the mature Force Vector cycles. If they
reverse, the bull will gain momentum. If they do not, the bear will resume
dominance. December 29, 2008-Mon-The Near-term Bull is weakening, but
enough ETF’s and Major Indices remain with enough non-bearish
configurations to withstand a major bearish assault. December 30,
2008-Tue-As expected, bearish meandering behavior was upset slightly with
today’s above average bullishness. The Near-term Bull was strengthened.
Again, keep in mind the trend is bearish and most ETF’s are Yellow Bears.
December 31, 2008-Bullish behavior today, followed by similar behavior
yesterday, strengthened the Near-term Bull. However, it remains fragile
and appears to be a mere bullish spurt in the face of the underling
bearish trend. January 2, 2009-Fri-Today’s bullish behavior strengthened
the baby bull. Some of the indices and ETF’s are developing into a robust
configuration. Continue holding, but do not assume this bull will develop
into a 1990’s sort of configuration.
Quick-term
and Short-term Indicant Summary
The bearish
bias originating on September 5, 2008 expired on November 4 and replaced
with a new bullish bias. That bullish bias has expired as the bullish
spurt perished shortly after its origination. However, on November 28,
2008, a new bullish bias configured. This bias remains.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF
cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. It is excluded from overall ETF statistics
because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during
bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This exclusion is required
for convergent/divergent monitoring.
The former
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID on November 21, 2008. It was down 33.7% since then, as of last
Friday. The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on December 17, 2008. It is
down 6.5% since then. You will notice the Quick-term Indicant in
the table adhered to the yellow bear rule and has not yet
signaled sell.
Other
Contrarian Funds
ETF#03-Natural Resources - This ETF was down 39.5% since the
Quick-term Indicant sell signal on July 24, 2008, as of last Friday. As
you can see from the table, it adhered strictly to the yellow bear rule
with a buy and sell signal after July 24, 2008. The yellow bear rule had
it signal sell on September 2, 2008 and it is down 32.8% since then. As
previously stated, the Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until
Vector Pressure is positive and Yellow Bear expires. The Near-term
Indicant signaled buy for this ETF today.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 6.9% since the NTI and QTI
signaled buy on December 11, 20008. It recently crossed above bearish
yellow, fell below, and now back above. It is finding comfort with Red
Bull status. Keep in mind the trend is down.
ETF#14-Long Government is up 22.5% since the NTI buy signal on Nov
17, 2008. We’re going to hold unless it becomes a Yellow Bear. As stated
last week, this is now easy to do as bearish yellow curve is rapidly
rising to the north. You will notice it fell below the NTI’s Bullish Blue
Curve today. However, that had no impact on the NTI’s position with this
fund. It has significant long-term bullish potential, which is based
purely on emotion.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Click
Quick-term Indicant for all ETF’s.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Short-term Indicant for Tangential Analysis
Divergence
versus Convergence
The market
closed with bullish convergence last week, following two consecutive weeks
of bearish convergence/divergence. Three more weeks of bullish convergence
would yield a strong sustainable bull market.
Indicant
Conclusion
There were
again no Mid-term Indicant buy signals for Mutual Funds. All 100-mutual
funds are with avoid signals. Although the Quick-term and Short-term
Indicant models are holding several of the ETF’s tracked, the Mid-term
Indicant will not signal buy for most of the Mutual Funds until they
remove themselves from bearish domains. Current configurations suggest it
could a year or longer for that to occur.
As stated the
past eight weeks, interest rates are falling, which is bullish. Oil prices
are declining. Those two elements, alone, are typically enough to
stimulate bullish activity. Trader behavior should ignite a “near-term”
bullish spurt cycle, even in the face of sour economic outlooks. Following
two weeks of disappointing bullish potential, last week again supported
it.
Deflation is
an increasing concern. If it manifests, a 2500 Dow by 2010/11 may be
optimistic. Even with that threat, a bullish spurt has been attempting to
configure for the past several weeks. The near-term cycle gained some
bullish traction last week.
Keep up with
the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift
quickly.
Do not get
lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to
enjoy hold signals.
The daily
updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Hyperlinks
To access all
major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click
the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are
inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on
the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way
back.
Happy
Investing,
www.indicant.net
01/04/09
