January 2012 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Reports

Jan 29, 2012 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 01, Issue 05 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Mutual Funds – Only One Avoided Non-contrarian

Nearly all of the mutual funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant have hold signals. As stated in past reports, a study of mutual funds can offer added insight to stock market bias.

For the first time since early 2007, only one non-contrarian mutual fund is enduring an avoid signal. This lone avoided fund is MF#45-Fidelity’s Select Consumer Finance. It is down by 76.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on Jan 26, 2007. This fund has endured an avoid signal now for five years, as of this weekend. That is an extraordinary long period for a quality mutual fund to endure an avoid signal. The good news is that it is the only one enduring that for those tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

Looking at its chart, you will notice it peaked in early 2005. After crossing above the MTI bearish yellow curve in 2000, you will notice its limited participation in the 2001-2002 stock market bear. Even though it was bearish during that period, it never fell below the Mid-term bearish yellow curve during that bear market.

After peaking in early 2005, it finally contacted that yellow curve in January 2006, triggering a mid-term sell signal. It lingered just below yellow until late 2006, where a buy signal occurred. Shortly after that, it endured the Jan 26, 2007 sell signal. As earlier stated, it is down 76.0% since then.

A study of economics suggests much of the 1990’s stock market bull was fueled by rising home prices. After the Y2K stock market bear in 2002-2003, home prices continued to inflate. Since the 1980’s, home prices have escalated by a combination of two driving forces; normal pricing elasticity to laws of demand and supply and phony pricing elasticity to politicians interfering with normalcy.

The stock market report of August 24, 2008, Hard Economic Data – Physical Objects, described the high effort and real value of building a house and the low effort and negative value of political and government intrusion. The stock market report of September 28, 2008, Will Fake Cash Flow Help the Bull, described phony balance sheet content with abstract valuations of assets. MF#45-Fidelity’s Select Consumer Finance price decline by over 70% since falling below MTI-Yellow in early 2007 reflects the consequences of political meddling in capital markets. Interestingly, one would not be out of line paralleling that Fund’s performance and your healthcare in the years to come with yet more political meddling. There is no objective evidence in the annals of history where any group of people has benefitted even in the smallest way from political help. On the contrary, history consistently demonstrates wars, recessions, and other hardships from it. As old people die, new ones are born to tabula rasa. They then repeat the mistakes of their ancestors. Their mistake; believing political chit-chat. Universal laws always overrule them. It is always just a matter of time.

The best yielding Mutual Fund, based on Mid-term Indicant buy signals, is MF#33-Fidelity’s Select Computer. It is up 64.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy in July 2009. Politicians do not interfere too much in that industry and thus the high performance in spite of the fact that the outlook for microcomputers is mainly bearish. Cloud computers are micros biggest threat. However, that does not mean this fund will turn bearish.

Of the mutual funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant, two are currently at all-time highs. MF#49-Fidelity’s Select Leisure and Entertainment is one of them. It is up 63.8% since the MTI buy signal in August 2009. Apparently, money is being made in the “soft industry” even though unemployment remains extraordinarily high. The haves are enjoying more while the have-nots continue with mere subsistence. That is what happens with increased socialism. If socialism expands, the fund will eventually shift bearish, as the “haves” will dwindle in population.

The other fund with a new all-time high is MF#96-Vanguard’s Targeted Retirement. Although it is enjoying an all-time high, it is up by only 16.5% since the MTI buy signal in July 2009. That is okay as this fund’s holdings contain ultra conservative investments. Even with that, you can see from its chart, it participated in the 2008-stock market bear, but has since rebounded and set new all-time highs in recent weeks.

Several other funds achieved all-time highs prior to bearish threats in late 2011. Some are struggling to regain that status, but overall, mutual funds are configured in favor of the stock market bull. Fund managers tend to buy the best in their sectors of interest. As long as the better companies hold up well, the stock market bear cannot dominate. It will be interesting if the lone avoided non-contrarian fund can earn its way to a mid-term buy signal.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

NAS100#85-ILMN was up 42.4% last week. It is up 44.7% since the Jan 13, 2012 buy signal. That annualizes at 1,150%. This stock has enjoyed a long-term bullish trend. Last week’s growth, of course will not continue at that rate. It is simply aligning itself back to its normal growth pattern after being pestered by the stock market bear late last year.

NAS100#04-SNDK was down 11.0% last week, while still maintaining mid-term bullish attributes. It is up 40.2% since the Mar 2010 buy signal.

ISTK#08-RNWKD was up 35.1% last week. It is still down, however, by 64.1% since the sell signal in July 2007. It is enduring a long-term bearish trend.

ISTK#17-BVSN was down 21.4% and down by that same amount since last week’s buy signal. This stock is also enduring a bearish trend, but the previous week’s configuration were unusual enough to continue holding. Although a high risk buy, okay to buy more at this point, but with a a solid stop loss. Cheap stocks are cheap for a reason; usually multiple ones.

DJIA#17-CAT was up 5.3%. It is up 132.9% since the buy signal in Aug 2009. It is a solid hold as this is an outstanding company.

DJIA#29-TRV was down 5.7% last week. It is up 53.6% since the buy signal in Mar 2009. It is enjoying a solid long-term bullish trend.

DJU#15-FE was up 1.8% last week. This stock is down 5.6% since the buy signal in May 2011. It plummeted in 2008’s crash and struggling to return to its former solid bullish cycle. Because it is down with a hold signal, buying again is okay. The only problem is its declining Force and potential drop below Yellow. If you buy more, set a stop loss.

DJU#14-CNP was down 3.1%. It is enjoying a solid bullish cycle, but recently under attack by the utility bear. It is up 40.9% since the buy signal in Oct 2009. Buying more should be okay.

MF#28-FSAGX was up 8.5%, triggering a buy signal. Its Force crossed into bullish domains. This fund should move bullishly as gold is again configured with bullish attributes along the short-term cycle.

MF#22-USPIX was down 2.1%. This purely contrarian fund is down 82.2% since the April 2009 sell signal.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated eighteen buy signals and one sell signal. The 170-buy signals in the past 15-weeks and 51-sell signals the past ten weekends illustrate an unusual bull-bear battle during the middle of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The stock market is confused as to what it should be; bull, bear, or neutral. However, the bull holds an edge here as the heart and soul of bullish seasonality is nearing its end. There are about two weeks remaining, but that does not mean a bearish cycle will follow. The stock market does not always respect historical patterns. It certainly disrespected this year’s heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 267 of the 331-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 62.1%. That annualizes to 41.9%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 267-stocks and funds for an average of 77.1-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 38-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 34.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 71.6-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Jan 28, 2011, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 292-stocks and funds out of 337-tracked for an average of 51.8-weeks. They were up by an average of 45.2% (annualized at 45.4%). There were 42-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 45.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 120.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 223-stocks and funds of the 317-tracked two years ago on Jan 29, 2010. They were up by an average of 22.4%, annualized at 34.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 33.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 91-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 45.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 99.8-weeks earlier. There were zero-buy signals in addition to 196-buy signals in the prior 27-weeks. There were three sell signals on this weekend in 2010.

There were only 23-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 344-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Jan 23, 2009 since their buy signals an average of 69.1-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 101.8% (annualized at 76.6%). There were 310-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 36.5% from their respective sell signals an average of 35.5-weeks earlier. There were 10-sell signals on this weekend in 2009 in addition to 573-sell signals in the prior 63-weeks, as the bear market was nearing its eventual depth, but still incomplete in its final destruction. There was one buy signal on this weekend in 2009.

On Jan 25, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 149-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 173.9% (annualized at 58.0%) since their buy signals an average of 156.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 192-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 13.7% since their sell signals an average of 13.5-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and four-sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to 178-sell signals in the prior 13-weeks. The Mid-term bull cycle, originating in March 2003, was well past its peak at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies. A huge number of sell signals continued for the next several months as the bear market gained momentum throughout most of 2008, through early 2009.

Five years ago, on Jan 26, 2007, there were 307-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 344 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 107.2% (annualized at 60.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of 92.2-weeks earlier. There were 31-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 12.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 21.3-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and six sell signals on this weekend in 2007. The bull was solid, for the most part, in 2007 until July of that year.

On Jan 27, 2006, there were 280-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 345-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 118.7%, annualizing at 66.9%, since their respective buy signals an average of 92.3-weeks earlier. There were 58-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 8.7% since their sell signals an average of 19.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

There were 230-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jan 28, 2005. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 320-stocks and funds since then. They were up by an average of 90.0%, annualizing at 64.5%, since their buy signals 72.6-weeks earlier. The 90-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 26.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 49.1-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

On Jan 30, 2004, there were 282-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 67.1% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 39.7-weeks earlier. That annualized at 88.0%. There were only six-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 27.9% since their sell signals an average of 42.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were zero-buy signals in addition to 433-buy signals in the prior 45-weeks. The 2003-04 bull market was 48-weeks old on this weekend in 2004. Unfortunately, a meandering bear market pestered throughout most of 2004.

On Jan 31, 2003, there were 137-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 26.5% since their buy signals an average of 22.2-weeks earlier, annualizing at 62.2%. There were 95-avoided stocks and funds since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 5.3-weeks earlier. The avoided stocks and funds were down 6.8%. There were seven-buy signals in addition to 528-buy signals in the prior 27-weeks. Although the stock market bear remained in effect, its weakness was maturing in favor of the stock market bull. Some of the Aug. 2002-buy signals retained hold signals through late 2007 and early 2008, while others endured sell signals before the conclusion of calendar year 2002 and in early 2003. Energy related buy signals in Aug 2002, however, held strongly through the December 2002-record-bear for December and lasted until late 2008. There were 57-sell signal on this weekend in 2003, as the heart and soul of bullish seasonality was expiring and the bull was expressing dynamic timidity in dominating the stock market. In hindsight, the first quarter of 2003 just a mere bearish spurt, but threatening enough to signal sell for many stocks and a few funds.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Bull and Bear Signals This Weekend

Recent buy signals are being triggered with stronger bullish attributes. Several stocks and funds contain zero evidence of potential stock market bear. The strong stocks and funds are very strongly bullish and the weak are getting stronger. Those stocks with a hold signal with paper losses are potentially excellent buy candidates.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 73.8% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 152.8% and the S&P500 is up 69.5% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 160.5% since October 9, 2002.

All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months. Configurations shifted in support of normal pre-election year bullishness twelve weeks ago. The stock market disappointed in the normally bullish pre-election year. However, the second most bullish year along the four-year cycle is the election year as the Fed and other disruptive forces typically stay on the sidelines. Historical standards favor the stock market bull this year. So far, mid-term and short-term attributes are supportive of that.

The NASDAQ is down 44.2% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 13.8% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 8.0% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish the last twelve years. Technically, one could call that a secular bear; albeit a mild one with respect to the Dow, but a major one in full force for the NASDAQ.

The Dow has stumbled three times when encountering its 2000 peak value. Will it do that again? It remains above its 2000 peak for the fourth time this century for the seventh consecutive week in this attempt to hold above that level. The S&P500 topped its 2000 peak for a few brief weeks in 2007 and has since drifted bearishly since then including its participation in the 2008-massive bear market. The 2009-2010 bullish rebound, though, has not overcome bearish influences so far this century. The NASDAQ has never come close, as its prior peak price was hype driven. The DOTCOM sector does not perform agriculture, manufacture, or extract. Therefore, most companies within that index created no wealth. It remains appropriately bearish relative to the 2000 phony peak prices.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence. If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak. Look at the resumes of intellectual elites who argue against these points. You will detect they are pure economic leeches arguing on behalf of such regulations, which is a source of their livelihoods. None has ever produced anything of value.

The NASDAQ was up 12.6% on this weekend in 2001, as the heart and soul of bullish seasonality was topping out. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality manifested early in the cycle, floundered ahead of Santa Claus, and asserted in early 2001. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear later that year.

The NASDAQ was down 0.7% on this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ was down 0.8% on this weekend in 2003. This turned out to be an excellent buying opportunity. It finished 2003 up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 5.6%. The meandering bear market of 2004 dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004 up by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 5.9% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up by 4.5% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 0.8% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline. The 2008-bear was already underway at this time of year in 2007.

The NASDAQ was down by 12.3% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was down 4.6% on this weekend in 2009 and finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was down 2.1% on this weekend in 2010. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. It was up 3.9% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 1.8%. The S&P500 was flat in 2011 while the DJIA was up by 5.5% that year.

The Dow is up 3.6% this year. The S&P500 is up 4.7% for the year. The NASDAQ is up 8.1% this year. This is occurring on the tail end of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality, which suggests its historical standard may be achieved, albeit with minimal and disappointing magnitude.

The Dow is down 10.6% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 1.5% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 15.9% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. This coincides with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected democratically controlled congress.

Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that, though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 thirty weeks ago. That was the second time in this cycle such accomplishment has been enjoyed by this small cap index.

Eclipsing and holding above 2007 cyclical peaks remains elusive. As of this past weekend, all major indices are below their 2007 peaks with the exception of the NASDAQ100 and the S&P400. This NASDAQ is up 10.0% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400-Mid-cap is above its Jul 31, 2007 peak by 1.7%. This is the second time since 2009, the midcaps have crossed above its 2007 peak price. The other major indices continue expressing difficulty justifying an escape from those 2007-peak prices.

Several indices have never challenged those peak prices. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 18.4% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. As you can see from recent stock market behavior, suspicions about the 2009-2011 bull leg had merit. It still does. The reason for those suspicions was near maximal incongruence between political leadership and the underlying principles of capital markets. The Dec 12, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

Most major last cyclical bottoms occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. If prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

The Dow is up 93.7% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 122.0% and the S&P500 is up 94.6% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 144.7% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Such a successor bear cycle may now be underway, although not expected to continue as Washington DC has a propensity to stalemate during presidential election years. This is especially true when the president is unpopular. Both of those conditions persist and favorable to the stock market bull, but polls are suggesting it is too close to inspire the stock market bull. That, coupled with European weakness, confronts the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets both free and controlled are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As you have seen the past several weeks, the potential for a massive and long-lasting bear is possible, as dilettantes, worldwide, continue converting their currencies to meaningless expressions. Interestingly, an “instinctive” resistance to this is manifesting, which could obsolete the previous sentence. Unfortunately, the dilettantes have not been locked-up, yet. The rate of undoing prior economic damage by politicians is slowing and may not manifest. Politicians never optimize. All their solutions are degenerative, as their goal is simply personal power; nothing else.

As promised by Bernanke in late 2008, the discount rate (and prime) rate continues holding flat at their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value. Bernanke continues with his promise of more of the same through 2014, which was extended from 2012 last week. Policy settings typically remain fixed during the second half of a president’s term. That stability is one reason why the historical record demonstrates stock market bullishness from the mid-term election year through the election year. Fortunately, U.S. politicians are losing influence on the shrinking world stage. Unfortunately, foreign politicians are made of the same DNA, which is unfavorable to any economic activity. Unfortunately, the paper currency basis of worldwide economies is under threat, as the culmination of OPM disease by politicians may be approaching the “critical dimension.”

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. After yielding zero in the previous 24-weeks, the 3-month T-Bill was trading at 0.3% the last two weeks.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 54-weeks ago. It lost Red Bull status 19-weeks ago with a continuing sharp drop against the greenback. You can see it has a triple camelback with negative (bearish) trend. It is now a Yellow Bear and appears readying for a yellow bear cycle.

The Canadian dollar is solidly entrenched in cycle of weakness. The CA$ moved above Red three weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull (bearish for the CA$).

The Japanese Yen continues strengthening, although bearish the past several weeks. The Japanese yen remains extraordinarily strong due to that country’s superior management in the private sector. It appears to be attempting a weakening cycle, but the country’s resiliency and significant productivity offers significant confrontation to weakening. However, it crossed into neutrality last week and threatening a bearish cycle against the greenback.

Gold’s optimistic 2012 forecast has been elevated to $1800/oz. After a few weeks of falling below Red, it is again a Red Bull. Despite solid bearish behavior in ten of the past 18-weeks, it continues trading above the 2012 yearend forecast curve, but getting close to losing that lofty position. The $2,000/oz.-forecast by 2014 remains challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains intact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild, but with deepening bearish bias. It fell below yellow 24-weeks ago on souring economic news, but rebounded 14-weeks ago. Despite periodic days of depressed behavior, it is holding up well. It escaped Yellow Bear status, as expected, and again with Red Bull status. As you can see, it has endured a similar bearish cycle in the past. With a strategic perspective, such cycles were obviously irrelevant. Printing more paper currencies will continue elevating the price of gold and other precious metals.

Commodity prices continue falling from their recent record highs due to souring economic forecast. None are Red Bulls, but they were significantly bullish last week. Their potential contribution to inflationary pressures remains absent, as all those tracked are now Yellow Bears. Their mid-term cycles are no longer bullish and remain under attack by the commodities bear.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures fell prey to bearish economic pressures the past few months. It is approaching Yellow Bear status, but it continues resisting that condition with a strong rebound in six of the last ten weeks.

Commodity prices, overall, are favoring potential for a bearish cycle. If it manifests, some elements of inflationary threats will be dampened.

Mortgage rates continue moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011. They continue along a bearish cycle.

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing with unfavorable results. Inflationary threats are detectable. However, the combined absolute value of interest rates and inflation or deflation remains relatively safe at this time. The CPI was down last month, dampening inflationary concerns, but elevating the potential for deflation, albeit mildly so.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and currently non-threatening toward inflation or deflation. Stability in their prices or even mild bullish behavior could very well be inspirational to the stock market bull.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 also received a buy signal this weekend.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It received a buy signal on Oct 28, 2011 after missing an 18% opportunity due to rapid bullishness ahead of Force Vector justification to signal buy. It is down 7.1% since that buy signal. This condition offers even yet a greater buying opportunity. It was bullish the past two weeks.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 28, 2011 after missing about 20% of opportunity. The Mid-term Indicant had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011. The MTI missed a 10% growth spurt, as the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Jan 13, 2012. It is up 7.3% since then, annualizing at 187.9%.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 25, 2011. It is up 4.3% since the MTI sell signal on Nov 25, 2011. It received a buy signal this weekend.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010 and was basically flat until the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 30, 2011. It again signaled buy on Oct 28, 2011 after missing about 24% of opportunity. Unfortunately, the Mid-term Indicant had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011. The MTI missed an approximate 10% growth spurt until a buy signal on Jan 13, 2012. It is up 4.1% since then, annualizing at 106.2%.

The Near-term and Quick-term signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Jan 3, 2012. It is up by 0.6% since those buy signals, annualizing at 9.1%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. It was up over 25.0%, annualized at 29.0% from its Quick-term buy signal on Sep 15, 2010 and the Quick-term sell signal on Aug 8, 2011. It was down slightly between the Dec 1, 2011 buy signal and the sell signal on Dec 14, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 28, 2011. It was up about 90.0% since the previous buy signal in Dec 2008 and annualizing at 30.5%. It is up 7.1% since the most recent buy signal on Jan 5, 2012, annualized at 116.1%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy on Jul 6, 2011. It was up about 10% until the NTI signaled sell on Sep 23, 2011. It was flat since that sell signal and its most recent buy signal on Oct 26, 2011. It was down slightly from that Oct 26, 2011 buy signal until the sell signal on Dec 12, 2011. It is up 7.1% since the Jan 5, 2012 Near-term buy signal, annualizing at 116.1% since then.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all ten of the major indices. They are up by an average of 10.7%, since their bull signals an average of 17.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 31.7%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $32,179.797. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,926,131 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $137,978. That beats buy and hold’s $128,937 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $224,618. That beats buy and hold’s $97,661 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,570.7%, 7.0%, and 130.0%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post-election year, 2009, which is the historical standard.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 82.2% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 337.4% (annualized at 16.6%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,056-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report – Summary

Despite mild bearishness this Friday, comments below remain the same as this past Thursday.

Although not yet robust, both Indicant Volume Indicators are again shifting north, offering potential for increasing stock market interest. This could be inspirational to both bull and bear, but current configurations favor the bull. Of course that can change, but it is what it is right now.

The remainder of this section remains the same from last Monday.

The stock market bull is gaining momentum along the short-term cycle, but without significant volume support. Although not dynamically stimulating, a bull is a bull and to be enjoyed.

Bearish unanimity exists with pure contrarians indices and ETF’s are enduring avoid signals. Bullish unanimity also exists as all non-contrarians are appropriately enjoying bull or hold signals.

The stock market bull remains without volume support. That is okay, but will eventually be required for a dynamic bull.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Index Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 4.8% since their bull signals an average of 5.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 49.9%. The lone near-term bear, contrarian VIX, is down 39.5% since its bear signal 8.4-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bull and no new bears.

The eleven Quick-term bulls are up by an average of 4.9% since their bull signals an average of 5.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 48.5%. Contrarian VIX is the lone Quick-term bear. It is down 39.5% since its bear signal on Nov 29, 2011.

Indicant Volume Indicators

No changes to this paragraph for several weeks. Both IVI’s sloped downward on recent bullishness, which suggests a lack of bullish inspiration. This is troubling. Adding to that concern is the NASDAQ’s IVI falling into low interest domains during the most recent near-term bull cycle. The NYSE did the same in early November 2011. Some of that, however, was due to seasonally depressed volume. Volume is past a standard minimum, suggesting increased volume support for prevailing bias. You will notice a mild movement to the north in recent days.

Jan 27-Fri-Low volume on mild bearishness does not scare the stock market bull.

Jan 26-Thu-Increasing volume on mild bearish behavior suggests increased stock market interest while not obviating directional intensity at this time.

Jan 25-Wed-Relative to recent history, volume was up on bullish behavior, adding support for prevailing bullish bias.

Jan 24-Tue-Light volume during this stock market pause is not disrupting bullish bias.

Jan 23-Mon-Volume was a bit depressed on mild volume in support of the stock market bull. Remember, configurations support a pause and mild bearishness lends good support for that thesis.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 5.8% since their buy signals an average of 4.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 64.1%.

The NTI is avoiding three-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 17.0% since their sell signals an average of 4.8-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 6.5% since their buy signals an average of 6.2-weeks ago. This annualizes at 54.5%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three-ETFs. They are down by an average of 17.0% since their QTI sell signals an average of 4.8-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Quick-term Indicant and Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jan 3, 2012. It crossed above NTI Blue with Force Vector support for additional bullishness. It is up 0.6% since then, annualizing at 9.1%. Force remains in bullish domain. It has been bullish in five of the last eight trading days and bearish the past two days.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals received a buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term models on Jan 5, 2012. Price climbed above NTI Blue and Force climbed into bullish domains. It is up 7.1% since those buy signals, annualizing at 116.1%. Force is oscillating in bullish domains, which is bullish.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold. As the U.S. dollar strengthens, gold is in trouble along the short-term cycle. However, it is again ignoring all made man objects, both physical and abstract, in favor of a universal production, as gold was derived from meteorites and a lot more difficult to produce than paper money. Of course, it is more valuable and increasingly so.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received sell signals from the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant on Friday, January 20, 2012. Price fell below NTI Green with weak Force. This contrarian EFT should fall in the face of stock market bullishness. Do not be surprised at price contraction to QTI Yellow. It is up 0.9% since those sell signals.

ETF#31-QID received sell signals from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant on Dec 23, 2011, as Force crossed below Pressure and into bearish domains. It is down 14.3% since those sell signals. Force is increasing, which offers some bullish hope for this ETF, but recent stock market bullish attributes are strengthening and not friendly to expectations of contrarian bullishness.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 30, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 37.6% since those sell signals.

Major ETF Events

Jan 27-Fri-No major events, but bull is gaining momentum despite bearish behavior today.

Jan 26-Thu-Increasing volume suggests increasing stock market interest.

Jan 25-Wed-Nothing major other than the bull defeating the bear after the state of the union address, which had a capitalistic undertone. That was contrary to the first three. Of course, it is a smoke screen, but the verbiage was friendlier to capitalistic endeavors.

Jan 24-Tue-Still moving through a pausing phase.

Jan 23-Mon-None.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Jan 26, 2011-As stated for several days, stock market Force Vectors continue flattening with some accelerating in bullish domains, adding to bullish potential. Contrarian VIX is poised for a bullish bounce that counters bullish bias, but non-threatening to the bullish bias.

Reverse Tangential Projections

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed bullish convergence for four consecutive weeks through weekending, Oct 28, 2011. That would normally influence continued bullish behavior. That bullish phenomenon remains irrelevant. Unfortunately, the stock market endured four consecutive weeks of combined bearish convergent/divergent behavior during late Nov. That remains relevant, but diminishing in importance, as the stock market enjoyed bullish convergence last week.

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past ten weeks, the NASDAQ100 again toppled its 2007 peak 16-weeks ago along the Mid-term cycle. That was the fourth time it has done that this year. Each time it retreated. The NAS100 crossed above 2007’s cyclical peak again eight weeks ago. That was the fifth time it has done that this year. It did not hold above that level. It was flat with its Oct 2007 peak seven weeks ago, but above 2007’s peak six weeks ago. That is the seventh time the NASDAQ crossed above its 2007 peak. This fluttering needs to be abandoned before the stock market bull can regain dominance. The stock market continues finding legitimate justification to be higher than it was in late 2007.

Until all of the major indices cross above their 2007 peaks, observations regarding their inabilities to do so will continue to be relevant. So, this is important to monitor, even though the Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all of the major indices.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

01/29/2012

Jan 22, 2012 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 01, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

The Bull/Bear Battles – Part II

The stock market bull won a battle last week. However, it has not yet won the war. U.S. president, Barack Obama, killed the Keystone project last week. There will be a bearish result to that. It will not be that single event. The fact that one person has enough power to do that is bearish. The system is deteriorating where one person can exert a negative will on many others.

The president argues the pipeline will contribute to ecological deterioration and global warming. It is not that he believes that. He is incapable of constructing a scientific conclusion to that. He is doing it for votes. There are enough people, who can vote, believing in these hypothetical consequences to the pipeline.

The global warming argument is a nonsensical one. The Canadians did not mine their tar sand oil just to look at it. Extracting any of earth’s elements is not easy. That oil will be sold. They are going to sell it to the Far East; mainly China. China is on the same earth as Texas. The so-called global warming aspects of burning crude will occur, regardless of political leadership’s cerebral limitations on the subject. The Chinese are not going to buy tar sand oil and just look at it. It will burn and escape into the atmosphere. The president and congressional crazies have no influence on the Chinese.

As far a global warming goes, the earth has been cooling since Hannibal crossed the Alps just under 1,000-years ago. The Alps had no snow on them. The earth was warmer then, than it is now. But, to get votes, facts are irrelevant. It is bearish for the stock market those number of votes are significant. Humanity’s filling their brains with nonsensicality is a threat to all capital markets.

Despite that, the stock market bull gained momentum last week. The underlying current influencing this is the possibility that current political leadership will be removed from power about a year from now. In other words, the stock market bull may be sensing the number of votes from nonsensical thinking may be in the minority. If so, that is bullish. If not, then bearish.

The NASDAQ100 finally qualified for a bull signal this weekend along the Mid-term cycle. It is 8.8% above its Oct 31, 2007 peak. Until this past weekend, it was the only major index above its 2007-peak. The S&P400 Mid-cap Index crossed above its July 31, 2007-peak this weekend. That is the second time it has done that since the 2009 bull leg started.

All of the other indices remain below their 2007 peaks. Until they cross above those peaks, the stock market bear will remain encouraged. Right now, however, the stock market bull continues to battle against this pestering bear. The next few weeks will be revealing, as the political dynamics will be influential on stock market behavior. Anti-capitalistic behavior and/or rhetoric will impose constraints on the stock market bull, depending on polling data.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

NAS#83-SHLD was up 46.0% last week, as the NASDAQ’s biggest winner. Despite that, it is down 16.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell this past November. That jump appears technical only and one should continue avoiding until the MTI signals buy.

NAS#78-NIHD was down 6.3% last week. That was the NAS100’s biggest loser. It is down 45.7% since the MTI sell signal in August 2011. As you can see, this stock is a sick one.

ISTK#17-BVSN was up a whopping 53.7%. This former NAS100 stock has a significant bearish trend to it. Despite that, the Mid-term was forced to signal buy as its Force is too strong to ignore. Set the stop loss tight due to its long-term bearish trend.

ISTK#77-CPWR was down 6.6% last week, as this group of stock’s biggest loser. It even garnished a sell signal this weekend. It has been trying to overcome a negative trend with general flat behavior the past five years or so. It fell too far below QTI Yellow to continue to hold. This stock have been fluttering around Yellow for several weeks, suggesting potential decisiveness toward a bullish or bearish direction. Since the latter is possible, avoid it, until a buy signal is triggered.

DJIA#06-BAC was the Dow30’s biggest gainer last week. Bank of America was up 7.0% last week. Bank of America is qualifying for a Mid-term buy signal and may garnish one next week. Its mature Force Vector cycle suggested another week or two of delaying the buy signal. The prices behavior with declining Force must be measured first. This stock is down 80.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in January 2008, well ahead of the stock market crash. Even though it is enduring a five year bearish trend, a buy signal at this point is gaining merit.

The Dow Jones composite of 30-stocks did not have any losers last week. The weakest performer was DJIA#03-JNJ. It was flat last week. Johnson and Johnson is up only 6.0% since the MTI buy signal in September 2010. This stock is enjoying a gentle bullish trend.

The Dow Utilities biggest gainer last week was DJU#05-AES. It enjoyed a gain of 3.2%. It is up 16.7% since the MTI buy signal last October. This stock has been struggling for several years and enduring a five-year bearish trend.

DJU#10-PEG was down 2.3% last week as the biggest utility loser. It fell below QTI Yellow again, triggering a sell signal. It will be very interesting if there is no bullish response to that, which is a common response for this particular stock.

MF#38-FSELX was mutual fund’s biggest gainer. It was up 8.8%. This fund is attempting to establish a long-term bullish trend. It remains well below its 2000 peak price, but confronting market shifts for its constituent’s underlying products. It is up 45.4% since the MTI buy signal in July 2009.

Contrarian MF#22-USPIX was the biggest loser in the mutual fund group, falling by 5.4% last week. It is down 81.8% since the MTI sell signal in April 2009.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated twelve buy signals and two sell signals. The 158-buy signals in the past 14-weeks and 49-sell signals the past nine weekends illustrate an unusual bull-bear battle during the middle of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The stock market is confused as to what it should be; bull, bear, or neutral. However, the bull holds an edge here as the heart and soul of bullish seasonality is nearing its end. There are about three weeks remaining, but that does not mean a bearish cycle will follow. The stock market does not always respect historical patterns. It certainly disrespected this year’s heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 256 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 62.4%. That annualizes to 40.8%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 246-stocks and funds for an average of 79.5-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 52-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 32.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 68.6-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Jan 21, 2011, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 295-stocks and funds out of 337-tracked for an average of 50.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 44.9% (annualized at 46.2%). There were 42-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 46.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 119.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 226-stocks and funds of the 317-tracked two years ago on Jan 22, 2010. They were up by an average of 24.0%, annualized at 39.6%, since their respective buy signals an average of 31.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 91-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 44.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 98.8-weeks earlier. There were zero-buy signals in addition to 196-buy signals in the prior 26-weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2010.

There were only 33-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 344-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Jan 16, 2009 since their buy signals an average of 49.8-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 59.1% (annualized at 61.7%). There were 308-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 35.4% from their respective sell signals an average of 33.9-weeks earlier. There were three-sell signals on this weekend in 2009 in addition to 570-sell signals in the prior 62-weeks, as the bear market was nearing its eventual depth, but still incomplete in its final destruction. There were no buy signals on this weekend in 2009.

On Jan 11, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 152-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 167.2% (annualized at 56.7%) since their buy signals an average of 153.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 173-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 17.2% since their sell signals an average of 14.8-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and 19-sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to 159-sell signals in the prior twelve-weeks. The Mid-term bull cycle, originating in March 2003, was well past its peak at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies. A huge number of sell signals continued for the next several months as the bear market gained momentum throughout most of 2008, through early 2009.

Five years ago, on Jan 19, 2007, there were 313-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 344 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 105.8% (annualized at 60.6%) since their respective buy signals an average of 90.9-weeks earlier. There were 32-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 13.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 21.2-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2007. The bull was solid, for the most part, in 2007 until July of that year.

On Jan 20, 2006, there were 279-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 345-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 116.9%, annualizing at 65.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 93.1-weeks earlier. There were 52-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 11.4% since their sell signals an average of 24.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

There were 230-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jan 21, 2005. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 320-stocks and funds since then. They were up by an average of 88.6%, annualizing at 64.4%, since their buy signals 71.6-weeks earlier. The 85-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 27.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 48.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and five sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

On Jan 23, 2004, there were 288-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 68.6% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 38.4-weeks earlier. That annualized at 92.9%. There were only eight-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 28.7% since their sell signals an average of 41.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were zero-buy signals in addition to 433-buy signals in the prior 44-weeks. The 2003-04 bull market was 47-weeks old on this weekend in 2004. Unfortunately, a meandering bear market pestered throughout most of 2004.

On Jan 24, 2003, there were 194-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 22.0% since their buy signals an average of 18.7-weeks earlier, annualizing at 61.2%. There were only six-avoided stocks and funds since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 16.6-weeks earlier. The avoided stocks and funds were down 24.0%. There were zero-buy signals in addition to 528-buy signals in the prior 26-weeks. Although the stock market bear remained in effect, its weakness was maturing in favor of the stock market bull. Some of the Aug. 2002-buy signals retained hold signals through late 2007 and early 2008, while others endured sell signals before the conclusion of calendar year 2002 and in early 2003. Energy related buy signals in Aug 2002, however, held strongly through the December 2002-record-bear for December and lasted until late 2008. There were 96-sell signal on this weekend in 2003.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Bull and Bear Signals This Weekend

There were 12-buy and two sell signals, as the stock market continues without commitment in either direction. Most of those buy signals are occurring around QTI Yellow, which has been invoking significant volatility. Each bear’s victory is countered by the bull and vice versus. However, the bear has been losing a bit of steam the past few weeks. The stock market bull demonstrated a significant increase in dominance last week.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 74.6% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 150.1% and the S&P500 is up 69.3% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 156.9% since October 9, 2002.

All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months. Configurations shifted in support of normal pre-election year bullishness eleven weeks ago. The stock market disappointed in the normally bullish pre-election year. However, the second most bullish year along the four-year cycle is the election year as the Fed and other disruptive forces typically stay on the sidelines. Historical standards favor the stock market bull this year.

The NASDAQ is down 44.8% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 13.9% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 8.5% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish the last twelve years. Technically, one could call that a secular bear; albeit a mild one with respect to the Dow, but a major one in full force for the NASDAQ.

The Dow has stumbled three times when encountering its 2000 peak value. Will it do that again? It remains above its 2000 peak for the fourth time this century for the sixth consecutive week in this attempt to hold above that level. The S&P500 topped its 2000 peak for a few brief weeks in 2007 and has since drifted bearishly since then including its participation in the 2008-massive bear market. The 2009-2010 bullish rebound, though, has not overcome bearish influences so far this century. The NASDAQ has never come close, as its prior peak price was hype driven. The DOTCOM sector does not perform agriculture, manufacture, or extract. Therefore, most companies within that index created no wealth. It remains appropriately bearish relative to the 2000 phony peak prices.

The NASDAQ was up 12.1% on this weekend in 2001. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality manifested early in the cycle, floundered ahead of Santa Claus, and asserted in early 2001. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear later that year.

The NASDAQ was down 1.0% on this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ was up 3.0% on this weekend in 2003. This turned out to be a prophetic start to the year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 7.2%. The meandering bear market of 2004 dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004 up by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 6.0% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up by 1.9% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 1.5% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline. The 2008-bear was already underway at this time of year in 2007.

The NASDAQ was down by 11.8% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was down 8.6% on this weekend in 2009 and finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 1.0% on this weekend in 2010. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. It was up 1.9% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 1.8%. The S&P500 was flat in 2011 while the DJIA was up by 5.5% that year.

The Dow is up 4.1% this year. The S&P500 is up 4.6% for the year. The NASDAQ is up 7.0% this year. This is occurring on the tail end of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality, which suggests its historical standards, may be achieved, albeit with minimal and disappointing magnitude.

The Dow is down 10.2% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 2.5% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 16.0% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. This coincides with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected democratically controlled congress.

Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that, though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 twenty-nine weeks ago. That was the second time this year such accomplishment was enjoyed by this small cap index.

Eclipsing and holding above 2007 cyclical peaks remains elusive. As of this past weekend, all major indices are below their 2007 peaks with the exception of the NASDAQ100, which is up 5.9% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400-Mid-cap index crossed above its Jul 31, 2007 cyclical peak. This is the second time since 2009, the midcaps have crossed above its 2007 peak price. The other major indices continue expressing difficulty justifying an escape from those 2007-peak prices.

Several indices have never challenged those peak prices. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 18.3% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. As you can see from recent stock market behavior, suspicions about the 2009-2011 bull leg had merit. It still does. The reason for those suspicions was near maximal incongruence between political leadership and the underlying principles of capital markets. The Dec 12, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow is up 94.3% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 119.7% and the S&P500 is up 94.4% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 141.3% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Such a successor bear cycle may now be underway, although not expected to continue as Washington DC has a propensity to stalemate during presidential election years. This is especially true when the president is unpopular. Both of those conditions persist and favorable to the stock market bull, but polls are suggesting it is too close to inspire the stock market bull. That, coupled with European weakness, confronts the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

As promised by Bernanke in late 2008, the discount rate (and prime) rate continues holding flat at their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value. Bernanke continues with his promise of more of the same through 2012. Policy settings typically remain fixed during the second half of a president’s term. That stability is one reason why the historical record demonstrates stock market bullishness from the mid-term election year through the election year. Fortunately, U.S. politicians are losing influence on the shrinking world stage. Unfortunately, foreign politicians are made of the same DNA, which is unfavorable to any economic activity. Unfortunately, the paper currency basis of worldwide economies is under threat, as the culmination of OPM disease by politicians may be approaching the “critical dimension.”

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. After yielding zero the past 24-weeks, it was trading at 0.3% late this past week.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 53-weeks ago. It lost Red Bull status 18-weeks ago with a continuing sharp drop against the greenback. You can see it has a triple camelback with negative (bearish) trend. It is now a Yellow Bear and appears readying for a yellow bear cycle.

The Canadian dollar is solidly entrenched in cycle of weakness. The CA$ moved above Red two weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull (bearish for the CA$).

Gold’s optimistic 2012 forecast has been elevated to $1800/oz. After a few weeks of falling below Red, it is again a Red Bull. Despite solid bearish behavior in ten of the past 17-weeks, it continues trading above the 2012 yearend forecast curve, but getting close to losing that lofty position. The $2,000/oz.-forecast by 2014 remains challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains intact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild, but with deepening bearish bias. It fell below yellow 23-weeks ago on souring economic news, but rebounded 13-weeks ago. Despite periodic days of depressed behavior, it is holding up well. It escaped Yellow Bear status, as expected. It is now in the neutral zone. As you can see, it has endured a similar bearish cycle in the past. With a strategic perspective, such cycles were obviously irrelevant.

Commodity prices continue falling from their recent record highs due to souring economic forecast. None are Red Bulls. Their potential contribution to inflationary pressures remains absent, as all those tracked are now Yellow Bears. Their mid-term cycles are no long bullish and remain under attack by the commodities bear.

Commodity prices, overall, are favoring potential for a bearish cycle. If it manifests, some elements of inflationary threats will be dampened.

Mortgage rates continue moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011. They continue along a bearish cycle.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It is up 8.8% since that sell signal. GLD is supportive of a short-term hold, but the Mid-term cycle is not yet as supportive, where the Force Vector must climb into bullish domains and price must eclipse the MTI Blue curve. It still has not done that.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 also received an MTI sell signal on Dec 16, 2011 and up 2.0% since then. It was bearish last week.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It received a buy signal on Oct 28, 2011 after missing an 18% opportunity due to rapid bullishness ahead of Force Vector justification to signal buy. It is down 8.5% since that buy signal. This condition offers even yet a greater buying opportunity. It was bullish last week.

The Near-term and Quick-term signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Jan 3, 2012. It is up by 0.5% since those buy signals, annualizing at 9.8%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. It was up over 25.0%, annualized at 29.0% from its Quick-term buy signal on Sep 15, 2010 and the Quick-term sell signal on Aug 8, 2011. It was down slightly between the Dec 1, 2011 buy signal and the sell signal on Dec 14, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 28, 2011. It was up about 90.0% since the previous buy signal in Dec 2008 and annualizing at 30.5%. It is down 0.4% since the most recent buy signal on Jan 5, 2012. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy on Jul 6, 2011. It was up about 10% until the NTI signaled sell on Sep 23, 2011. It was flat since that sell signal and its most recent buy signal on Oct 26, 2011. It was down slightly from that Oct 26, 2011 buy signal until the sell signal on Dec 12, 2011. It is up 2.7% since the Jan 5, 2012 Near-term buy signal, annualizing at 65.3% since then.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There was one new bull signal and no new bear signals.

The NAS100 finally qualified for a bull signal.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for nine of the ten major indices. They are up by an average of 7.4%, since their bull signals an average of 15.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 24.9%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $32,332,353. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,935,262 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $137,880. That beats buy and hold’s $128,845 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $222,238. That beats buy and hold’s $96,626 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,570.7%, 7.0%, and 130.0%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 81.8% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 339.1% (annualized at 16.7%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,055-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report – Summary

The stock market bull is gaining momentum along the short-term cycle, but without significant volume support. Although not dynamically stimulating, a bull is a bull and to be enjoyed.

Bullish unanimity has now been attained along the short-term cycle. The laggard foreign related ETF’s received buy signals this Friday after the close. Japan is expected to be downgraded next week and the Europeans are negotiating in Greece.

Bearish unanimity also exists with pure contrarians indices and ETF’s are enduring avoid signals.

This is bullish along the short-term cycle. The weekly report will document the Mid-term Indicant is also nearing bullish unanimity.

The stock market bull is again without volume. That is okay, but will eventually be required for a dynamic bull.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Index Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 4.3% since their bull signals an average of 4.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 54.9%. The lone near-term bear, contrarian VIX, is down 40.3% since its bear signal 7.4-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bull and no new bears.

The eleven Quick-term bulls are up by an average of 4.4% since their bull signals an average of 4.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 52.9%. Contrarian VIX is the lone Quick-term bear. It is down 40.3% since its bear signal on Nov 29, 2011.

Indicant Volume Indicators

Jan 20-Fri-Again low volume, but not threatening to the stock market bull.

Jan 19-Thu-Nothing meaningful here. Just another average day, but nothing to disrupt bullish bias.

Jan 18-Wed-Volume was again up slightly on solid bullishness supporting weak bullish bias.

Jan 17-Tue-Volume was slightly above recent averages on mild bullishness, but up more on late day bearishness. Too weak of a relationship for obviations of directional intensity.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 4.6% since their buy signals an average of 3.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 64.8%.

The NTI is avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 22.2% since their sell signals an average of 5.6-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated two buy signals and one sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 5.7% since their buy signals an average of 5.5-weeks ago. This annualizes at 53.2%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding four-ETFs. They are down by an average of 22.2% since their QTI sell signals an average of 5.6-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Quick-term Indicant and Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jan 3, 2012. It crossed above NTI Blue with Force Vector support for additional bullishness. It is up 0.5% since then, annualizing at 9.8%. Force is now moving bullishly. It has been bullish the past three trading days.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals received a buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term models on Jan 5, 2012. Price climbed above NTI Blue and Force climbed into bullish domains. It is up 2.7% since those buy signals, annualizing at 65.3%.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received sell signals from the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant today, Friday, January 20, 2012. Price fell below NTI Green with weak Force. This contrarian EFT should fall in the face of stock market bullishness. Do not be surprised at price contraction to QTI Yellow.

ETF#31-QID received sell signals from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant on Dec 23, 2011, as Force crossed below Pressure and into bearish domains. It is down 12.4% since those sell signals. Force is increasing, which offers some bullish hope for this ETF, but recent stock market bullish attributes are strengthening and not friendly to expectations of contrarian bullishness.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 30, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 32.0% since those sell signals. Its Force Vector has shifted back to the north, but not yet threateing the avoid signal.

Major ETF Events

Jan 20-Fri-More ETF short-term buy signals for foreign ETF’s occurred.

Jan 18-Wed-The stock market bull is gaining momentum.

Jan 17-Tue-Strong bullishness early Tuesday was followed with bearish afternoon behavior, suggesting bull/bear battle is continuing.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Jan 20, 2011-Stock market Force Vectors are flattening with some accelerating in bullish domains, adding to bullish potential.

Reverse Tangential Projections

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past nine weeks, the NASDAQ100 again toppled its 2007 peak 15-weeks ago along the Mid-term cycle. That was the fourth time it has done that this year. Each time it retreated. The NAS100 crossed above 2007’s cyclical peak again eight weeks ago. That was the fifth time it has done that this year. It did not hold above that level. It was flat with its Oct 2007 peak six weeks ago, but above 2007’s peak five weeks ago. That is the sixth time the NASDAQ crossed above its 2007 peak. This fluttering needs to be abandoned before the stock market bull can regain dominance. The stock market continues finding legitimate justification to be higher than it was in late 2007.

Interestingly, the NASDAQ100 received a bull signal this weekend, as all Mid-term attributes qualified it as a bull this weekend. A bearish response to that will be a bit unsettling.0

Until all of the major indices cross above their 2007 peaks, observations regarding their inabilities to do so will continue to be relevant.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

01/22/2012

Jan 15, 2012 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 01, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

The Bull/Bear Battle

Although the stock market bull and bear have been civil to each other the past few weeks, rest assured the battle is not over. One will eventually win, as flat behavior surrounded with wild vicissitudes is rare for long periods. One of the longest such periods in recent history was the 2000-DJIA. Up-down-directionless behavior lasted for a year a half before succumbing to the stock market bear. Such behavior is not friendly to investors and this line of work.

Those dilettantes who downgraded most European debt did not trigger a significant bearish response. The markets obviously expected that. Those same folks did nothing on advising of the financial collapse of 2008 and before. The financial collapse actually began when politicians learned to churn money through Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. That was discussed in the March 22, 2009 weekly report. A flow chart was constructed to document the process. The massive debt must be paid. The bear knows that and is anxious to pounce because of it.

The NASDAQ100 again did not qualify for a bull signal. It is getting closer, but somewhat discerning at its inability to do so. Although it has moved with bullish aggression the past few weeks, it must cross above the MTI blue curve before garnishing a bull signal. Even if it does, keep in mind this index has succumbed to bearish behavior six times since first crossing above its 2007 peak. Fundamentally, it is difficult to conclude contemporary economic conditions are better than mid-2007. That is about nine-trillion debt dollars ago with no end in sight. The presidential polls are suggesting contemporary society may not find that troubling. The bull and bear pay attention to those polls. The bull finds more difficulty in finding inspiration with such a close call on such massive amounts of stupidity.

One Utility Stock is exposing some suspicious behavior that is not friendly to the stock market bull. It is discussed in more detail later in this report, but worthy to discuss here. DJU#13-EXC has been trading in a mild bullish trend for nearly two years. It finally crossed above its MTI Yellow curve a few weeks ago, triggering a buy signal for the first time in several years. However, rather than encouraging more bullishness, MTI Yellow acted as a lid. It is among the weaker of the Utilities, while the DJU has been a solid bull since its last Mid-term bull signal in July 2010. You will notice its participation with bearish swings has been minimal since then. It has held above the short cycle mid-term green curve since that buy signal, while all of the major indices have succumbed more deeply to the passion of the stock market bear off and on for nearly a year.

The Dow Utilities performance is a clear indicator the stock market bear cannot completely dominate until it configures with bearish attributes. However, you should also notice its Force Vector is dipping to the south. That coupled with the unusual bearish expression by Exelon is cause for concern. Major cyclical shifts by the major indices always start with a singular weakness, such as this stock. Keep in mind that is a statement of probability and not one of determinism. Tracking that stock the next few weeks will help elevate a probabilistic conclusion either way.

All of that sounds a bit dreary, but it is important to recognize the negatives to bullish ambition. Overall, the other major indices are bulls and the Dow Utilities is a strong bull. With that, the stock market bear cannot dominate. Of interest, can the major indices cross and hold above their 2007 peaks? Although there is little economic justification for that expectation, the worldwide economies-especially in the orient can inspire the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

NAS#28-URBN was the biggest NASDAQ100 biggest loser. It was down 9.2%. It is down 10.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy this past October. Although your stop loss probably triggered a sell, it is recommended to buy again. It did not qualify for a sell signal because its Force Vector remains in bullish domains. Although threatening to the hold, it offers greater upside potential because the Mid-term Indicant continues to signal hold. Its trend is friendly to bullish expectations.

NAS#83-SHLD was the NAS100’s biggest gainer last week, jumping up by14.9%. It is down 42.6% since the MTI signaled sell this past November. This stock’s trend has been bearish since early 2007 and should continue to be avoided. Last week’s jump was triggered by auto-buying and without fundamental justification. It was just a roll of the dice. There are more rolls yet to be tossed.

ISTK#38-ENER was up a whopping 220.5%, as the Indicant Select Stocks biggest gainer. Even with such a whopper, it is still down by a whopping 97.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in October 2008. It qualified, technically, as a high-risk buy, but fundamental research should precede doing so. These cheap stocks tend to be more bouncy.

ISTK#18-EK would have been ISTK’s biggest gainer, as it was up 39.5% on renewed bankruptcy filings. Investors figure more cash flow by wiping off debt. This stock is down 97.6% since the MTI sell signal in November 2007. ISTK#15-GT was this group’s biggest loser last week, falling by 10.9%. Although automotive is strong, this Goodyear continues to struggle at making money. However, it is up 4.7% since the MTI buy signal this past October.

DJIA#17-CAT was the Dow30’s biggest gainer. It was up 7.0%. It remains as a solid hold. This is an outstanding company that seems to be holding principles in place even though a prime candidate for dilettante leeching. It is up 114.5% since the MTI buy signal in August 2009.

The Dow30’s biggest loser was DJIA#25-DIS. It fell by 3.8% last week. This stock retains health mid-term cyclical attributes, justifying its hold signal. It is up 11.4% since the MTI buy signal this past October. It has been trending bullishly since 2002. Although, fundamentally, American leisure time will probably decline, the Chinese and others who are moving away from socialism will find expanding leisure time to generate increased revenues to Disney

DJU#05-AES was up 3.4% last week as the Dow Utilities biggest gainer. This stock remains unhealthy from a trend perspective, but it is up 13.9% since the MTI buy signal this past October. Keep in mind this stock is down 81.5% since its all-time high from 12-years ago. Despite that, though, the mid-term cycle has strong bullish attributes.

DJU#13-EXC was down 3.3%, as the Dow Utilities biggest loser. Its mischievous behavior triggered sell this week, as Force fell into bearish domains and price fell below all potential floors. This stock was one of the most preferred Mid-term Indicant holds during the Mid-term Indicant 2002-2007 bull cycle. This stock was originally recommended several times from last 2001 through early 2003 as a good buy due to a very healthy dividend payout. This stock traded in a narrow range since early 2010 and crossed above MTI Yellow a few weeks ago, where the MTI signaled buy for the first time since its prior sell signal in late 2007. And with a pretty loud thud, it demonstrated MTI-Yellow as a lid to upward movement. It looks like floor trader manipulation.

MF#30-FBIOX was mutual funds biggest gainer. It was up 5.7%. It is up 39.1% since the MTI buy signal in September 2010. This fund is still down from its all time high from early 2000,but its ten year trend line is solidly bullish. Its ETF cousin, ETF#10-IBB, has been skyrocketing along the short-term cycle the past few months.

MF#09-SSGRX was down 4.3% last week as the Indicant tracked funds biggest loser. It is up 2.4% since the MTI signaled sell this past November. Its Force Vector is barely hanging in bearish domains and on the verge of gaining a buy signal. This fund will do very well if the world’s populace biases support toward capitalism, as more will want the comforts of life that requires petro provisions.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated twenty buy signals and one sell signal. The 146-buy signals in the past 13-weeks and 47-sell signals the past eight weekends illustrate an unusual bull-bear battle during the middle of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The stock market is confused as to what it should be; bull, bear, or neutral. However, the bull holds an edge here as the heart and soul of bullish seasonality is nearing its end. There are about four weeks remaining, but that does not mean a bearish cycle will follow. The stock market does not always respect historical patterns. It certainly disrespected this year’s heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 246 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 59.5%. That annualizes to 38.2%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 246-stocks and funds for an average of 81.1-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 59-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 28.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 59.1-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Jan 14, 2011, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 295-stocks and funds out of 337-tracked for an average of 49.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 46.9% (annualized at 49.3%). There were 42-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 49.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 118.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 226-stocks and funds of the 317-tracked two years ago on Jan 15, 2010. They were up by an average of 28.4%, annualized at 48.5%, since their respective buy signals an average of 30.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 91-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 42.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 97.8-weeks earlier. There were zero-buy signals in addition to 196-buy signals in the prior 25-weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2010.

There were only 36-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 344-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Jan 9, 2009 since their buy signals an average of 33.9-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 52.4% (annualized at 64.9%). There were 308-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 33.6% from their respective sell signals an average of 33.9-weeks earlier. There were no-sell signals on this weekend in 2009 while there were 570-sell signals in the prior 61-weeks, as the bear market was nearing its eventual depth, but still incomplete in its final destruction. There were no buy signals on this weekend in 2009.

On Jan 11, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 171-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 170.7% (annualized at 60.7%) since their buy signals an average of 146.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 159-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 15.6% since their sell signals an average of 15.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and 15-sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to 144-sell signals in the prior eleven-weeks. The Mid-term bull cycle, originating in March 2003, was well past its peak at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies. A huge number of sell signals continued for the next several months as the bear market gained momentum throughout most of 2008, through early 2009.

Five years ago, on Jan 12, 2007, there were 313-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 344 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 105.7% (annualized at 61.2%) since their respective buy signals an average of 89.9-weeks earlier. There were 32-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 13.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 20.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2007. The bull was solid, for the most, part in 2007 until July of that year.

On Jan 13, 2006, there were 290-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 345-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 113.0%, annualizing at 67.1%, since their respective buy signals an average of 87.3-weeks earlier. There were 52-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 10.6% since their sell signals an average of 23.7-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and two sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

There were 235-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jan 14, 2005. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 320-stocks and funds since then. They were up by an average of 89.2%, annualizing at 66.6%, since their buy signals 69.6-weeks earlier. The 84-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 28.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 48.1-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2005.

On Jan 16, 2004, there were 288-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 67.5% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 37.4-weeks earlier. That annualized at 93.8%. There were only eight-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 28.9% since their sell signals an average of 37.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 288 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were zero-buy signals in addition to 433-buy signals in the prior 43-weeks. The 2003-04 bull market was 46-weeks old on this weekend in 2004. Unfortunately, a meandering bear market pestered throughout most of 2004.

On Jan 17, 2003, there were 289-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 19.6% since their buy signals an average of 16.1-weeks earlier, annualizing at 63.4%. There were only six-avoided stocks and funds since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 25.8-weeks earlier. The avoided stocks and funds were down 33.8%. There were zero-buy signals in addition to 528-buy signals in the prior 25-weeks. Although the stock market bear remained in effect, its weakness was maturing in favor of the stock market bull. Some of the Aug. 2002-buy signals retained hold signals through late 2007 and early 2008, while others endured sell signals before the conclusion of calendar year 2002 and in early 2003. Energy related buy signals in Aug 2002, however, held strongly through the December 2002-record-bear for December and lasted until late 2008. There was one sell signal on this weekend in 2003.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Bull and Bear Signals This Weekend

There were 20-buy and one sell signal, as the stock market continues without commitment in either direction. Most of those buy signals are occurring around QTI Yellow, which has been invoking significant volatility. Each bear’s victory is countered by the bull and vice versus. However, the bear has been losing a bit of steam the past few weeks.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 70.5% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 143.3% and the S&P500 is up 66.0% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 150.2% since October 9, 2002.

All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months. Configurations shifted in support of normal pre-election year bullishness ten weeks ago. The stock market disappointed in the normally bullish pre-election year. However, the second most bullish year along the four-year cycle is the election year as the Fed and other disruptive forces typically stay on the sidelines.

The NASDAQ is down 46.3% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 15.6% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 6.0% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish the last twelve years. Technically, one could call that a secular bear; albeit a mild one.

The Dow has stumbled three times when encountering its 2000 peak value. Will it do that again? It remains above its 2000 peak for the fourth time this century for the fifth consecutive week in this attempt to hold above that level. The S&P500 topped its 2000 peak for a few brief weeks in 2007 and has since drifted bearishly since then including its participation in the 2008-massive bear market. The 2009-2010 bullish rebound, though, has not overcome bearish influences so far this century. The NASDAQ has never come close, as its prior peak price was hype driven. The DOTCOM sector does not perform agriculture, manufacture, or extract. Therefore, most companies within that index created no wealth. It remains appropriately bearish relative to the 2000 phony peak prices.

The NASDAQ was up 6.3% on this weekend in 2001. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality manifested early in the cycle, but floundered at the approach of the Santa Claus rally.

The NASDAQ was up 3.7% on this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. As you can see, the strong bullish start to 2002 was a fake one. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ was up 8.3% on this weekend in 2003. This turned out to be a prophetic start to the year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 4.6%. The meandering bear market of 2004 dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004 up by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 4.8% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up by 5.1% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 3.6% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline. The 2008-bear was already underway at this time of year in 2007.

The NASDAQ was down by 8.0% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was down 1.9% on this weekend in 2009 and finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 1.7% on this weekend in 2010. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. It was up 3.1% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 1.8%. The S&P500 was flat in 2011 while the DJIA was up by 5.5% that year.

The Dow is up 1.7% this year. The S&P500 is up 2.5% for the year. The NASDAQ is up 4.1% this year. This is occurring on the tail end of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality, which suggests its historical standards, may be achieved, albeit with minimal and disappointing magnitude.

The Dow is down 12.3% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 5.2% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 17.6% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. This coincides with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected democratically controlled congress.

Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that, though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 twenty-eight weeks ago. That was the second time this year such accomplishment was enjoyed by this small cap index.

Several indices have never challenged those peak prices. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 19.9% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. As you can see from recent stock market behavior, suspicions about the 2009-2011 bull leg had merit. It still does. The reason for those suspicions was near maximal incongruence between political leadership and the underlying principles of capital markets. The Dec 12, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow is up 89.7% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 113.7% and the S&P500 is up 90.5% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 135.0% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Such a successor bear cycle may now be underway, although not expected to continue as Washington DC has a propensity to stalemate during presidential election years. This is especially true when the president is unpopular. Both of those conditions persist and favorable to the stock market bull, but polls are suggesting it is too close to inspire the stock market bull. That, coupled with European weakness, confronts the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

As promised by Bernanke in late 2008, the discount rate (and prime) rate continues holding flat at their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value. Bernanke continues with his promise of more of the same through 2012. Policy settings typically remain fixed during the second half of a president’s term. That stability is one reason why the historical record demonstrates stock market bullishness from the mid-term election year through the election year. Fortunately, U.S. politicians are losing influence on the shrinking world stage. Unfortunately, foreign politicians are made of the same DNA, which is unfavorable to any economic activity. Unfortunately, the paper currency basis of worldwide economies is under threat, as the culmination of OPM disease by politicians may be approaching the “critical dimension.”

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. They have been yielding zero for the past 23-weeks even though it was a 0.1% for a brief period this past Thursday.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 52-weeks ago. It lost Red Bull status 17-weeks ago with a continuing sharp drop against the greenback. You can see it has a triple camelback with negative (bearish) trend. It is now a Yellow Bear and appears readying for a yellow bear cycle.

The Canadian dollar is solidly entrenched in cycle of weakness. The CA$ moved in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) 18-weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull (bearish for the CA$).

The Japanese Yen continues strengthening, although bearish the past several weeks. The Japanese yen remains extraordinarily strong due to that country’s superior management in the private sector.

Gold’s optimistic 2012 forecast has been elevated to $1800/oz. As you can see, it is no longer a Red Bull. Despite solid bearish behavior in ten of the past 16-weeks, it continues trading above the 2012 yearend forecast curve, but getting close to losing that lofty position. The $2,000/oz.-forecast by 2014 remains challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains intact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild, but with deepening bearish bias. It fell below yellow 22-weeks ago on souring economic news, but rebounded 12-weeks ago. Despite periodic days of depressed behavior, it is holding up well. It escaped Yellow Bear status, as expected. It is now in the neutral zone. As you can see, it has endured a similar bearish cycle in the past. With a strategic perspective, such cycles were obviously irrelevant.

Commodity prices continue falling from their recent record highs due to souring economic forecast. None are Red Bulls. Their potential contribution to inflationary pressures remains absent, as all those tracked are now Yellow Bears. Their mid-term cycle are no long bullish and remain under attack by the commodities bear.

Commodity prices, overall, are favoring potential for a bearish cycle. If it manifests, some elements of inflationary threats will be dampened.

Mortgage rates continue moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011. They continue along a bearish cycle.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and currently non-threatening toward inflation or deflation.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It is up 5.8% since that sell signal. GLD is supportive of a short-term hold, but the Mid-term cycle is not yet as supportive, where the Force Vector must climb into bullish domains and price must eclipse the MTI Blue curve.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 also received an MTI sell signal on Dec 16, 2011 and up 4.3% since then.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It received a buy signal on Oct 28, 2011 after missing an 18% opportunity due to rapid bullishness ahead of Force Vector justification to signal buy. It is down 10.9% since that buy signal. This condition offers even yet a greater buying opportunity.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 25, 2011. It is up 2.4% since the MTI sell signal on Nov 25, 2011. It was solidly bearish last week, but nearing a buy signal.

The Near-term and Quick-term signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Jan 3, 2012. Last week’s report erroneously indicated a sell signal on that date, but did not make that error on the daily reports. It is down by 2.3% since those buy signals. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. It was up over 25.0%, annualized at 29.0% from its Quick-term buy signal on Sep 15, 2010 and the Quick-term sell signal on Aug 8, 2011. It was down slightly between the Dec 1, 2011 buy signal and the sell signal on Dec 14, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 28, 2011. It was up about 90.0% since the previous buy signal in Dec 2008 and annualizing at 30.5%. It is down 0.4% since the most recent buy signal on Jan 5, 2012. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy on Jul 6, 2011. It was up about 10% until the NTI signaled sell on Sep 23, 2011. It was flat since that sell signal and its most recent buy signal on Oct 26, 2011. It was down slightly from that Oct 26, 2011 buy signal until the sell signal on Dec 12, 2011. It is up 0.9% since the Jan 5, 2012 Near-term buy signal, annualizing at 42.2% since then.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for nine of the ten major indices. They are up by an average of 7.6%, since their bull signals an average of 16.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 24.1%. The lone bear, NASDAQ100, is up by 10.3% since its bear signal eight weeks ago. It again did not qualify for a bull signal. Its Force Vector needs to cross above Pressure and/or into bullish domains. It price did climb above MTI Blue, but Force still remains deficient here.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $31,573,842. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,889,862 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $135,124. That beats buy and hold’s $126,270 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $216,175. That beats buy and hold’s $93,990 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,570.7%, 7.0%, and 130.0%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 80.8% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 329.1% (annualized at 16.2%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,054-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report – Summary

Much of this is the same as this past Thursday.

ETF#03-XLE is threatening its hold signal. It is possible for an energy bear to coexist with a stock market bull. That is why it is classified as contrarian. That, however, is unlikely, but current configurations remind of the possibility. The mid-term cycle is shifting a bit in favor of the petro bear. That has delayed a sell signal for this ETF until next week if bearish attributes strengthen along the short-term cycle.

ETF#10-IBB-Biotech is skyrocketing. Such behavior disgusts the stock market bear. A dynamic bear cannot garnish enough energy with this sort of behavior in this sector. This ETF has led past bullish rallies. Do not be surprised at some stalling, but certainly non-bearish along the short-term cycle.

ETF#20-EEM crossed above Yellow and finally crossed above NTI Blue this past Thursday, justifying the short-term buy signal. It closed down slightly this past Friday. International ETF’s are configured with bullish unanimity.

As stated last Wednesday, the VIX Force Vector cycle appears to be bottoming. That offers a short-term bearish threat to the stock market. So far, the cycle relates to mere stock market pausing, as opposed to a significant short-term bearish cycle.

ETF#08-EFA Force Vectors shifted bullishly last Wednesday, minimizing potential of selling.

Overall configurations continue nudging in favor of the stock market bull. Foreign markets are now adding mild support to the stock market bull, while remaining in somewhat of a precarious configuration.

The stock market bull and bear still lack desired unanimity, but the bull holds an advantage to gaining that before the bear.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Index Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 2.1% since their bull signals an average of 3.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 36.0%. The lone near-term bear, contrarian VIX, is down 31.8% since its bear signal 6.4-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bull and no new bears.

The eleven Quick-term bulls are up by an average of 2.2% since their bull signals an average of 3.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 34.9%. Contrarian VIX is the lone Quick-term bear. It is down 31.8% since its bear signal on Nov 29, 2011.

Indicant Volume Indicators

No changes to this paragraph for several weeks. Both IVI’s sloped downward on recent bullishness, which suggests a lack of bullish inspiration. This is troubling. Adding to that concern is the NASDAQ’s IVI falling into low interest domains during the most recent near-term bull cycle. The NYSE did the same in early November 2011. Some of that, however, was due to seasonally depressed volume. Recent bearish behavior has been more supported with volume than recent bullish behavior. Until new relationships manifest, it is what it is.

Jan 13-Fri-Low volume on mild bearishness with European downgrades suggests the stock market already baked in that sort of news.

Jan 12-Thu-Flat market behavior on flat volume is non-descriptive.

Jan 11-Wed-Volume was down slightly on mixed stock market behavior. That offers little to interpret.

Jan 10-Tue-Volume was up a bit on mild bullishness. The key point is that the Indicant Volume Indicator is at a lethargic minimum, suggesting increasing interest in the stock market. It will be interesting to see if this will trigger more selling or increase demand for stocks.

Jan 9-Mon-Again, volume expresses very little stock market interest. It is not primed for dynamic behavior in either direction.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 1.9% since their buy signals an average of 2.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 37.1%.

The NTI is avoiding two-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 16.0% since their sell signals an average of 7.1-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 3.3% since their buy signals an average of 4.7-weeks ago. This annualizes at 35.9%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding five-ETFs. They are down by an average of 6.7% since their QTI sell signals an average of 7.2-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Quick-term Indicant and Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jan 3, 2012. It crossed above NTI Blue with Force Vector support for additional bullishness. It is down 2.3% since then. Force was healthy in support of hold, but now moving bearishly. The Mid-term Indicant is somewhat bullish for this sector and a sell signal will be delayed until next week if attributes continue to sour in favor of the petro bear.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals received a buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term models on Jan 5, 2012. Price climbed above NTI Blue and Force climbed into bullish domains. It is up 0.9% since those buy signals, annualizing at 42.2%.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received buy signals from the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant on Dec 14, 2011. Short-term attributes shifted in support of TLT’s bullishness. It is down 0.4% since those buy signals. The dollar is expected to continue strengthening and this ETF tends to parallel that. Unfortunately, a stock market bull, which is threatening, will inspire TLT bearishness. It is nearing NTI Green, where a sell signal will be triggered if Force remains in bearish domains. This contrarian ETF is having difficulty along the same plane the stock market is having.

ETF#31-QID received sell signals from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant on Dec 23, 2011, as Force crossed below Pressure and into bearish domains. It is down 7.4% since those sell signals. Force is increasing, which offers some bullish hope for this ETF, but recent stock market bullish attributes are strengthening and not friendly to expectations of contrarian bullishness.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 30, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 24.7% since those sell signals. Its Force Vector has shifted back to the north, but not yet threateing the avoid signal.

Major ETF Events

Jan 13-Fri-There were no major events.

Jan 12-Thu-One more international ETF qualified for short-term buying. It will be interesting if it can hold. If it does, that will be bullish for the overall stock market.

Jan 11-Wed-VIX Force appears to be bottoming, favoring its non-bearishness and the stock market’s non-bullishness.

Jan 10-Tue-Two international ETF’s received buy signals today by the Near-term Indicant and one of the same received a buy signal from the Quick-term Indicant. They crossed above NTI Blue and one of them even crossed above QTI Yellow.

Jan 9-Mon-There were no major events.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Jan 13, 2011-Stock market Force Vectors are flattening with some accelerating in bullish domains, adding to bullish potential. However, do not be surprised at a stock market pause until the VIX potential bullish Force cycle starts and expires. It continues to rise.

Reverse Tangential Projections

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed bullish convergence for four consecutive weeks through weekending, Oct 28, 2011. That would normally influence continued bullish behavior. That bullish phenomenon remains irrelevant. Unfortunately, the stock market endured four consecutive weeks of combined bearish convergent/divergent behavior during late Nov. That remains relevant. The stock market bear remains with a bit of an edge with this attribute even though most of the major indices are qualified with bull signals.

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past eight weeks, the NASDAQ100 again toppled its 2007 peak 14-weeks ago along the Mid-term cycle. That was the fourth time it has done that this year. Each time it retreated. The NAS100 crossed above 2007’s cyclical peak again seven weeks ago. That was the fifth time it has done that this year. It did not hold above that level. It was flat with its Oct 2007 peak five weeks ago, but above 2007’s peak four weeks ago. That is the sixth time the NASDAQ crossed above its 2007 peak. This fluttering needs to be abandoned before the stock market bull can regain dominance. The stock market continues finding justification to be higher than it was in late 2007.

Interestingly, the NASDAQ100 is the only major index retaining its bear signal despite strong bullish behavior since the Mid-term Indicant’s bear signal. Its Force Vector is having trouble escaping bearish domains.

Until all of the major indices cross above their 2007 peaks, observations regarding their inabilities to do so will continue to be relevant.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

01/15/2012

Jan 8, 2012 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 01, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Tracking the Mundane

The presidential election year is the second most bullish year along the four-year cycle. $10,000 invested in 1836’s election year grew to $98,723 by 2004, if the two-hundred year old investor was in the market only during election years and in cash in the other three years. Although that return is not that impressive, it is much better than the $343 gain with investments only in the post-election year. The next post-election year starts next year. Reelecting an incumbent is not friendly to the stock market bull while the stock market bear is usually delighted.

Since 1836, there have been 15-bearish election years. The most bearish was George W. Bush’s 2008-election year with a stock market drop of 33.8%. As George W. Bush’s second term neared its conclusion, he became more liberal. To make matters worse, a liberal congress was available to accelerate massive nonsensicality on top of years of it. Fiscal liberals only do three things; 1) increase taxes to pay for their social agenda, 2) increase debt, and 3) number one and number two. All are bad and conflict with universal law. Either way, you pay. The stock market bull expires when that nonsensical behavior exceeds the capacity of the private sector’s ability to absorb it. Being liberal weakens huge numbers among the masses, but does not prevent them from procreation. Economic leeches are approaching majority. The stock market bull finds that disturbing.

George W. Bush’s pathetic performance barely beat the second most election-year’s bearish cycle. That occurred in 1920 when Woodrow Wilson expanded his already ridiculous socialist agenda. Wilson’s nonsensicality also occurred in his second term. His 1920-election-year bear was down a whopping 32.9% or just under one-percentage point of George W.’s pathetic 2008.

The incumbent president is not in his second term, which is where presidents are the most dangerous to your quality of life and the stock market bull. If the incumbent is re-elected, then it would not be surprising to see a 2016 stock market bear that would last for over a hundred years. It takes a long time to reconcile and develop countermeasures for a hundred trillion or two of national debt. Economic leeches will first have to return to an insignificant minority. The damage already done is acting as a depressant to the stock market bull.

The stock market bull is always listening. The polls are demonstrating this election year, as a close one, and the candidates from both parties lack attributes desired by the stock market bull. The stock market bull has trouble understanding the ignorance of those being polled. The airwaves convey massive amounts of economic lies. People listen and are influenced by those inaccuracies. The stock market knows of those inaccuracies and is disappointed that so few do.

As long as the polls demonstrate an impending close election, one should not expect the stock market bull to gain much momentum.

As you can see, the success of the Bolshevik Revolution correlated with a massive drop in the DJIA of nearly 50% in 1917. Once the stock market bull figured out communism would not spread quickly to the west, it rejoiced and dominated from 1918 through 1919. However, as you can see from the chart, stock market again fell by nearly 50% in 1920 as Woodrow Wilson propagated his socialistic agenda. Unionism expanded during that same time, as the masses worldwide increasingly favored more centralized control. Many generations lived pitiful lives while a handful lived like kings. Any human, looking for support from another, is weak. Any large group of humans allowing a chief to manifest over them is weak. Such tribes always lose and the stock market bull prefers disassociation until the tribe expires.

Hillary Clinton’s book, “It Takes a Village” promotes the idea of her being queen and everyone else serving her. Those politically minded folks have some DNA flowing in their biology feeling a constant need to rule, as opposed to working 14-hours a day developing a computer, car, or some other physical product. Anyone choosing a political career is sick in some way, as that profession can add no value to anyone. It is all about their personal power. If they do not hold the gun, themselves, they have no power. Many political leaders in history learned that lesson as their last one. The authors of the U.S. Constitution recognized those will political leanings needed constraints to minimize the damage they knew would unfold. Slowly, but steadily, contemporary politicians continue violating the rules of the U.S. Constitution. They do not like the constraints it imposes upon them.

The stock market bull becomes worried when large numbers of people think what a sicko politician has to say and do is important to their well-being. Although it has the opposite effect on the quality of life, the stock market bull understands the masses do not understand. The ignorance of the masses threatens all private assets. The stock bear thrives as that threat elevates with increasing probabilities of political confiscation of all assets. Since politicians create no assets, they can only transfer them. Transferring assets to those who did not create them accelerates their depreciation. Even the stock market bear endures a finite life with such extreme behavior since confiscated assets quickly becomes worthless. However, just sensing the possibility of confiscation or redistribution is an erotic experience for the stock market bear.

George W. Bush’s 2008 stock market bear was sudden, when comparing to Wilson’s bear. First, the voting public elected a democratic congress in November 2006. It took them about a year to find out where the bathrooms were and line up their personalized paths of corruption. Once those two things were mastered, they started legislating corruption. By mid-2007, most of the major indices were peaking as a result of cumulative congressional corruption by their predecessors.

Only one index is above those 2007-peaks. Interestingly, it is the only index with a bear signal. It is the NASDAQ100.

Before embarking along a dynamic bullish cycle again, all of the major indices must cross above those 2007 peaks. They have been trying to do so since 2010 when the NASDAQ100 first crossed above its 2007 cyclical peak before retreating. This is monitored routinely by The Indicant, but will be discussed in more detail from time to time. Secular bearish bias, originating in 2000, will prevail as long as the major indices continue expressing timidity in surpassing their 2007 peak levels.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

NAS#17-MRVL was the NASDAQ100’s biggest gainer last week. It was up 13.5%. Force moved into bullish domains triggering a buy signal. It has been bouncing around MTI Yellow for several weeks. NAS#83-SHLD was down 8.1% last week. It is down 50.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell this past November.

ISTK#38-ENER was up 43.6% this past week, as Indicant Select Stock’s biggest gainer. On the surface that sounds impressive. It remains as a dog stock. It is down 99.2% since the MTI sell signal in Oct 2008. The group’s biggest loser was ISTK#18-EK. It was down 41.0% last week. It has been struggling to move up, but it is so far down inside bearish domains, it will continue with sort of volatility. It is down 98.4% since the MTI signaled sell in Nov 2007.

DJIA#06-BAC was up 11.2% last week, as the Dow30’s biggest gainer. That did not trigger a buy signal. It is down 83.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in Jan 2008. Interestingly, JP Morgan did receive a buy signal, as it is a bit stronger than Bank of America. DJIA#30-VZ was the biggest Dow30 loser. It was down 4.5% last week. It is up 36.8% since the MTI buy signal in Jul 2010. It is a solid hold.

DJU#05-AES was up 3.3% as the Dow Utilities biggest gainer. It is up 9.3% since the MTI signaled buy this past October. DJU#11-WMB was down 17.1% last week. That is a pretty sharp drop for a utility company. It is up 38.9% since the MTI buy signal over two years ago in Oct 2010. It apparently did not feel comfortable with its Red Bull status.

Mutual Funds biggest gainer last week was MF#29-FSAVX. It was up 6.1%. Its Force Vector needs to climb into bullish domains before signaling buy. MTI-Yellow has offered resistance to additional bearishness, but it also has invited wild swings around it. Contrarian MF#22-USPIX was down 6.7% as the stock market was bullish. It is down 80.5% since the April 2009 sell signal.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated seven buy signals and no sell signals. The 126-buy signals in the past 12-weeks and 46-sell signals the past seven weekends illustrate an unusual bull-bear battle during the middle of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The stock market is confused as to what it should be; bull, bear, or neutral.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 240 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 60.1%. That annualizes to 38.8%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 240-stocks and funds for an average of 80.6-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 76-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 23.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 54.5-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Jan 7, 2011, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 295-stocks and funds out of 337-tracked for an average of 48.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 44.2% (annualized at 47.4%). There were 42-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 50.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 117.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 214-stocks and funds of the 317-tracked two years ago on Jan 8, 2010. They were up by an average of 30.9%, annualized at 52.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 30.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 91-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 42.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 96.8-weeks earlier. There were 12-buy signals in addition to 184-buy signals in the prior 24-weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2009.

There were only 33-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 344-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Jan 2, 2009 since their buy signals an average of 32.9-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 60.2% (annualized at 73.4%). There were 308-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 32.7% from their respective sell signals an average of 32.9-weeks earlier. There were no-sell signals on this weekend in 2009 while there were 570-sell signals in the prior 60-weeks, as the bear market was nearing its eventual depth, but still incomplete in its final destruction. There were three buy signals on this weekend in 2009.

On Jan 4, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 186-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 160.9% (annualized at 60.5%) since their buy signals an average of 138.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 102-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 13.9% since their sell signals an average of 19.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and 57-sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to 87-sell signals in the prior ten-weeks. The Mid-term bull cycle, originating in March 2003, was well past its peak at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies. A huge number of sell signals continued for the next several months as the bear market gained momentum throughout most of 2008, through early 2009.

Five years ago, on Jan 5, 2007, there were 312-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 344 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 100.0% (annualized at 58.4%) since their respective buy signals an average of 89.0-weeks earlier. There were 30-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 13.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 21.2-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and two-sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid, for the most, part in 2007 until July of that year.

On Jan 6, 2006, there were 292-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 345-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 110.8%, annualizing at 66.8%, since their respective buy signals an average of 86.3-weeks earlier. There were 53-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 10.5% since their sell signals an average of 22.5-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

There were 236-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jan 7, 2005. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 320-stocks and funds since then. They were up by an average of 86.7%, annualizing at 65.9%, since their buy signals 68.4-weeks earlier. The 15-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 41.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 61.1-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and 69-sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

On Jan 9, 2004, there were 28 8-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 63.5% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 36.4-weeks earlier. That annualized at 90.8%. There were only six-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 29.0% since their sell signals an average of 39.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 288 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were no-buy signals in addition to 433-buy signals in the prior 42-weeks. The 2003-04 bull market was 45-weeks old on this weekend in 2003. Unfortunately, a meandering bear market pestered throughout most of 2004.

On Jan 10, 2003, there were 284-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 22.2% since their buy signals an average of 15.0-weeks earlier, annualizing at 76.6%. There were only six-avoided stocks and funds since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 24.9-weeks earlier. The avoided stocks and funds were down 31.6%. There were six-buy signals in addition to 522-buy signals in the prior 24-weeks. Although the stock market bear remained in effect, its weakness was maturing in favor of the stock market bull. Some of the Aug. 2002-buy signals retained hold signals through late 2007 and early 2008, while others endured sell signals before the conclusion of calendar year 2002 and in early 2003. Energy related buy signals in Aug 2002, however, held strongly through the December 2002-record-bear for December and lasted until late 2008. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2002.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Bull and Bear Signals This Weekend

There were seven buy and no sell signals, as the stock market continues without commitment in either direction. Most of those buy signals are occurring around QTI Yellow, which has been invoking significant volatility. Each bear’s victory is countered by the bull and vice versus.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 69.6% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 140.0% and the S&P500 is up 64.5% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 146.1% since October 9, 2002.

All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months. Configurations shifted in support of normal pre-election year bullishness nine weeks ago. However, it is increasingly obvious the heart and soul of bullish seasonality may not manifest its normal bullishness in this pre-election year, which is the most bullish of all the political years along the four-year cycle.

The NASDAQ is down 47.0% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 16.3% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 5.4% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish the last twelve years. Technically, one could call that a secular bear; albeit a mild one.

The Dow has stumbled three times when encountering its 2000 peak value. Will it do that again? It remains above its 2000 peak for the fourth time this century for the fourth consecutive week in this attempt to hold above that level. The S&P500 topped its 2000 peak for a few brief weeks in 2007 and has since drifted bearishly since then including its participation in the 2008-massive bear market. The 2009-2010 bullish rebound, though, has not overcome bearish influences so far this century. The NASDAQ has never come close, as its prior peak price was hype driven. The DOTCOM sector does not perform agriculture, manufacture, or extract. Therefore, most companies within that index created no wealth. It remains appropriately bearish relative to the 2000 phony peak prices.

The NASDAQ was down 2.5% on this weekend in 2001. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality manifested early in the cycle, but floundered at the approach of the Santa Claus rally.

The NASDAQ was up 5.6% on this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. As you can see, the strong bullish start to 2002 was a fake one. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ was up 6.4% on this weekend in 2003. This turned out to be a prophetic start to the year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 2.7%. The meandering bear market of 2004 dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004 up by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 3.9% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

The NASDAQ was down by 5.6% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 4.8% on this weekend in 2009 and finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 1.4% on this weekend in 2010. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. It was up 2.1% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 1.8%. The S&P500 was flat in 2011 while the DJIA was up by 5.5% that year.

The Dow is up 1.2% this year. The S&P500 is up 1.6% for the year. The NASDAQ is up 2.7% this year.

The Dow is down 12.7% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 6.5% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 18.4% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. This coincides with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected democratically controlled congress.

Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that, though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 twenty-seven weeks ago. That was the second time this year such accomplishment was enjoyed by the S&P600.

Several indices have never challenged those peak prices. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 20.5% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. As you can see from recent stock market behavior, suspicions about the 2009-2011 bull leg had merit. It still does. The reason for those suspicions was near maximal incongruence between political leadership and the underlying principles of capital markets. The Dec 12, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow is up 88.8% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 110.8% and the S&P500 is up 88.9% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 131.1% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Such a successor bear cycle may now be underway, although not expected to continue as Washington DC has a propensity to stalemate during presidential election years. This is especially true when the president is unpopular. Both of those conditions persist and favorable to the stock market bull, but polls are suggesting it is too close to inspire the stock market bull. That, coupled with European weakness, confronts the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

As promised by Bernanke in late 2008, the discount rate (and prime) rate continues holding flat at their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value. Bernanke continues with his promise of more of the same through 2012. Policy settings typically remain fixed during the second half of a president’s term. That stability is one reason why the historical record demonstrates stock market bullishness from the mid-term election year through the election year. Fortunately, U.S. politicians are losing influence on the shrinking world stage. Unfortunately, foreign politicians are made of the same DNA, which is unfavorable to any economic activity. Unfortunately, the paper currency basis of worldwide economies is under threat, as the culmination of OPM disease by politicians may be approaching the “critical dimension.”

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. They have been yielding zero for the past 22-weeks.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 51-weeks ago. It lost Red Bull status 16-weeks ago with a continuing sharp drop against the greenback. You can see it has a triple camelback with negative (bearish) trend. It is on the verge of becoming a Yellow Bear, but not quite yet there.

The Canadian dollar remains within the tolerances of its weakening cycle. It is more solidly resuming a cycle of weakness. The CA$ moved in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) 17-weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull (bearish for the CA$), which threatens its cycle of strengthening. The Japanese Yen continue strengthening, although bearish the past three weeks. The Japanese yen remains extraordinarily strong due to that country’s superior management in the private sector.

Gold’s optimistic 2012 forecast has been elevated to $1800/oz. As you can see, it is no longer a Red Bull. Despite solid bearish behavior in ten of the past 15-weeks, it continues trading above the 2012 yearend forecast curve, but getting close to losing that lofty position. The $2,000/oz.-forecast by 2014 remains challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains intact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild, but with deepening bearish bias. It fell below yellow 21-weeks ago on souring economic news, but rebounded eleven weeks ago. Despite periodic days of depressed behavior, it is holding up well. It escaped Yellow Bear status, as expected. It is now in the neutral zone. As you can see, it has endured a similar bearish cycle in the past. With a strategic perspective, such cycles were obviously irrelevant.

Commodity prices continue falling from their recent record highs due to souring economic forecast. None are Red Bulls. Their potential contribution to inflationary pressures remains absent, as most are now Yellow bears or within the zone of neutrality. Their mid-term cycle remains bullish but under attack by the commodities bear. However, their behavior has not disrupted their general bullish trend that originated in early 2009

Commodity prices, overall, are favoring potential for a bearish cycle. If it manifests, some elements of inflationary threats will be dampened.

Mortgage rates continue moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011. They continue along a bearish cycle.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and currently non-threatening toward inflation or deflation.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 also received an MTI sell signal on Dec 16, 2011 and up 2.7% since then.

The above two gold funds are too risky to hold at this time. Gold is under short-term pressure by the gold bear. Once that pressure is relieved, buy signals will be triggered. The strengthening U.S. dollar continues to confront the gold bull.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 28, 2011 after missing about 20% of opportunity. The Mid-term Indicant had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011. It is up 6.5% since that sell signal. Force must climb into bullish domains and price must eclipse blue before the next buy signal. Force is threatening to do so, but was too timid the past two weeks to make that commitment.

The Near-term and Quick-term signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Jan 3, 2012. It is down by 0.1% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. It was up over 25.0%, annualized at 29.0% from its Quick-term buy signal on Sep 15, 2010 and the Quick-term sell signal on Aug 8, 2011. It was down slightly between the Dec 1, 2011 buy signal and the sell signal on Dec 14, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 28, 2011. It was up about 90.0% since the previous buy signal in Dec 2008 and annualizing at 30.5%. It is down 0.4% since the most recent buy signal on Jan 5, 2012. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy on Jul 6, 2011. It was up about 10% until the NTI signaled sell on Sep 23, 2011. It was flat since that sell signal and its most recent buy signal on Oct 26, 2011. It was down slightly from that Oct 26, 2011 buy signal until the sell signal on Dec 12, 2011. It is down 0.4% since the Jan 5, 2012 Near-term buy signal.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for nine of the major indices. They are up by an average of 6.5%, since their bull signals an average of 15.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 21.9%. The lone bear, NASDAQ100, is up by 9.5% since its bear signal seven weeks ago. It again did not qualify for a bull signal. Its Force Vector needs to cross above Pressure and/or into bullish domains. Also, price must climb above NTI Blue and it continues with an inability to do so.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $31,415,898. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,888,408 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $134,942. That beats buy and hold’s $125,165 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $213,268. That beats buy and hold’s $92,726 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,570.7%, 7.0%, and 130.0%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 80.5% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 327.0% (annualized at 16.1%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,053-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report – Summary

There is nothing new from the past two days and thus repeated below.

With the exception of foreign related ETF’s, most short-term attributes are increasingly supporting the stock market bull.

Contrarian VIX Force consumed significant energy. Although dynamic bearishness in the VIX is not expected, it is configuring to remain non-bullish.

Overall configurations continue nudging in favor of the stock market bull. Foreign markets, however, remain with bearish configurations.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Index Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 1.1% since their bull signals an average of 2.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 27.1%. The lone near-term bear, contrarian VIX, is down 32.7% since its bear signal 5.4-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bull and no new bears.

The eleven Quick-term bulls are up by an average of 1.2% since their bull signals an average of 2.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 26.5%. Contrarian VIX is the lone Quick-term bear. It is down 32.7%, since its bear signal on Nov 29, 2011.

Yesterday’s (Thursday’s) performance statistics contained a few minor errors, but without any impact to signals or modeling.

Indicant Volume Indicators

No changes to this paragraph for several weeks. Both IVI’s sloped downward on recent bullishness, which suggests a lack of bullish inspiration. This is troubling. Adding to that concern is the NASDAQ’s IVI falling into low interest domains during the current near-term bull cycle. The NYSE recently did the same (early Nov). Some of that, however, is due to seasonal volume. Recent bearish behavior has been more supported with volume than recent bullish behavior.

Jan 06-Fri-Low volume on mild bearishness means nothing.

Jan 05-Thu-Continued low volume persists, leaving a void of any pizzazz.

Jan 03-Tue-Although volume was up, it remained low when considering seasonality. That coupled with mild bullish behavior offers little support for any changes in dynamic directional intensity.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 0.8% since their buy signals an average of 2.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 21.1%.

The NTI is avoiding five-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 5.6% since their sell signals an average of 4.2-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 2.1% since their buy signals an average of 4.1-weeks ago. This annualizes at 26.9%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding seven-ETFs. They are down by an average of 4.7% since their QTI sell signals an average of 5.4-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals received a buy signal from both the Near-term and Quick-term models this past Thursday evening. Price climbed above NTI Blue and Force climbed into bullish domains.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold. As the U.S. dollar strengthens, gold is in trouble along the short-term cycle.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received buy signals from the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant on Dec 14, 2011. Short-term attributes shifted in support of TLT’s bullishness. It is down 2.2% since those buy signals. The dollar is expected to continue strengthening and this ETF tends to parallel that. Unfortunately, a stock market bull, which is threatening, will inspire TLT bearishness. It is nearing NTI Green, where a sell signal will be triggered if Force remains in bearish domains.

ETF#31-QID received sell signals from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant on Dec 23, 2011, as Force crossed below Pressure and into bearish domains. That is too threatening for holding even though QQQ remains with an avoid signal. Force is now increasing and once it crosses above Pressure and into bullish domains, a buy signal will be triggered. It is down 6.1% since those sell signals. Weakening Force is stalling, which offers some bullish hope for this ETF, but recent stock market bullish attributes are strengthening and not friendly to expectations of contrarian bullishness.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 30, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 24.0% since those sell signals. Its Force Vector continues moving south (bearish for VXX).

Major ETF Events

Jan6-Fri-None.

Jan 5-Thu-None

Jan 4-Wed-Contrarian attributes are weakening, while non-contrarians are strengthening. This is bullish for the stock market. Foreign ETF’s continue to struggle.

Jan 3-Tue-More attributes shifted in favor of stock market bullishness.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Jan 4, 2011-Stock market Force Vectors are flattening with some accelerating, adding to bullish potential.

Reverse Tangential Projections

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed bullish convergence for four consecutive weeks through weekending, Oct 28, 2011. That would normally influence continued bullish behavior. That bullish phenomenon remains irrelevant. Unfortunately, the stock market endured four consecutive weeks of combined bearish convergent/divergent behavior during late Nov. That remains relevant. The stock market bear remains with a bit of an edge with this attribute even though most of the major indices are qualified with bull signals.

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past seven weeks, the NASDAQ100 again toppled its 2007 peak -13weeks ago along the Mid-term cycle. That was the fourth time it has done that this year. Each time it retreated. The NAS100 crossed above 2007’s cyclical peak again six weeks ago. That was the fifth time it has done that this year. It did not hold above that level. It was flat with its Oct 2007 peak four weeks ago, but above 2007’s peak three weeks ago. That is the sixth time the NASDAQ crossed above its 2007 peak. This fluttering needs to be abandoned before the stock market bull can regain dominance. The stock market is increasingly finding little justification to be higher than it was in late 2007.

Until all of the major indices cross above their 2007 peaks, observations regarding their inabilities to do so will continue to be relevant.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

01/08/2012

Jan 1, 2012 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Pathetic

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was bullish in the normally bullish pre-election year of 2011. It was up by a pathetic 5.5% for the year. That pales in comparison to an average pre-election year of 10.4% since 1832.

This past year was the most bearish pre-election year since 1985. However, 1985 followed two extraordinary bullish years with gains of 27.7% and 22.6% in 1983 and 1984, respectively. That also pales to 2009’s 18.1%-gain and 2010’s 11.0%-gain in the Dow30 stocks.

The S&P500 finished flat for the year, while the NASDAQ was uncharacteristically bearish in the normally bullish pre-election year. The NASDAQ and S&P500 have been bearish so far this century. That challenges increasing interests in stock market investing. Why invest in bearish instruments?

The heart and soul of bullish seasonality was and remains unusually disappointing this year. It is extremely rare for the heart and soul of bullish seasonality absent manifestation during the normally bullish pre-election years. Each of the pre-election years is reviewed below to highlight that point. The pre-election years can be quickly identified in the dark blue section of the charts.

Bull signal #19 in 1903 signaled the start of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

Bull signal #02 in 1907 signaled the start of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

Bull signal #06 in 1911 signaled the start of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

Bull signal #07 in 1915 signaled an early start to the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Of course, a war helped that start. FDR read history book and learned this neat little trick when faced with the embarrassment of his failed economic policies.

The heart and soul of bullish seasonality did not manifest in 1919, but easy to stomach, following the dynamic bull market a year earlier. You should also notice the dynamic bear market in the normally bullish election year of 1920. Will 2012 look like 1920?

Bull signal #05 in 1923 was a classical start to the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

There was no bull signal in 1927, but the heart and soul of bullish seasonality manifested following deep bearish seasonality through Sep 1927. Of course, the price was paid, following the roaring twenties. The children of that generation were raised for the most part in poverty conditions, grew up, and had to endure another world war.

Bull signal #12 in 1931 was an attempt to identify the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. It was a head fake as the stock market quickly dropped following that bull signal. This was only the second failure for the heart and soul’s manifestation at this point of the twentieth century.

There was no identifying bull signal leading to the heart and soul of bullish seasonality during 1935’s pre-election year. That was okay as the stock market bull was in the middle of a massive stampede. Even with that, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality manifested with its historical purity to do so. While gazing at this chart, it is interesting to note the similarity of FDR’s post-election year bullishness in 1933 and that of 2009 (not shown). Both of those bulls originated in April.

Bull signal #14 was too early to identify the heart and soul of bullish seasonality in 1939. Unfortunately, bear signal #15 occurred when the heart and soul of bullish seasonality normally occurs, as World War II was starting. The beginning of world wars, of course, disrupts normalcy.

1943’s bear signal #5 was triggered when the heart and soul normally starts, plus a few weeks. The stock market recognized the recession of 1944 and world war continued pestering.

The heart and soul of bullish seasonality did not occur in 1947, as the cold war began with the horrors of nuclear holocaust in human consciousness.

There was no bull signal identifying the heart and soul of bullish seasonality in 1951’s pre-election year. However, it did occur with a bounce to the north off the bullish red curve. A similar bullish bounce occurred in 1955’s pre-election year, but well above the bullish red curve. As you can see, the mass production of early computers correlated very well with bullish stock market behavior while the president’s heart attack did not impact the stock market bull. That is because the President of the United States, by design, has nothing to do with economic prosperity, unless than spend their spare time inventing a physical product, such as a computer.

The heart and soul of bullish seasonality manifested like clockwork in 1959’s pre-election year.

Bull signal #06 correlated again like clockwork with the heart and soul of bullish seasonality in 1963’s pre-election year. As you can see, the stock market quickly returned to its bullish fervor following the shock of a presidential assassination. Again, American presidents are irrelevant to economic prosperity.

Bull signal #14 in 1967 identified that year’s beginning to the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Although a bear quickly followed, it did in fact enjoy its normal manifestation. It is interesting to note that the assassination of a presidential candidate in 1968 did not deter the stock market bull.

Although bull signal #10 in 1972 was a little late, the heart and soul manifested very well in 1971 following the devaluation of the U.S. dollar.

Bull signal #12 identified the heart and soul in 1975’s pre-election year, even though interrupted briefly with a bear signal.

Bull signal #10 in 1979’s pre-election year, like clockwork, identified the heart and soul phenomenon.

1983 enjoyed the same phenomenon, but it was a nervous one with some fluttering behavior. The 1984 bear was short-lived with a massive bull market following that bear cycle. Lowering taxes and challenging governmental regulations was indeed bullish.

Even 1987’s bear crash enjoyed the heart and soul of bullish seasonality even though there was no bull signal identifying it.

1991’s heart and soul was late, but made up for it with a gallant bullish cycle. This is identified with bull signal #08.

1995 was already busy with a massive bull market. Despite that, the heart and soul provided its normal bullish spurt when it crossed above the green trip line.

Bull signal #04 clearly identifies the heart and soul of bullish seasonality in 1999’s pre-election year. Unfortunately, the stock market endured choppy fluttering in 2000.

2003, like 1991 and 1995, was already busy with a solid bull market, but again enjoyed the bullish dump from the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

Even 2007’s peaking of several years of stock market bullishness, the heart and soul delivered, albeit short-lived. This is identified with bull signal #02.

Hope you enjoyed those charts. They will be replaced with better ones in 2012 with better bull and bear signals. More importantly, you can see, it is unusual for the heart and soul of bullish seasonality to not manifest during pre-election years.

There is a bull signal in effect. Only the future will determine if it leads to a bullish cycle.

There are four major problems confronting the stock market bull; 1) incumbent popularity, 2) Europe, 3) the strengthening U.S. dollar, and 4) worldwide debt.

The polls suggest the incumbent U.S. president is not popular. With one-billion dollars in campaign contributions, much of the current unpopularity will be countered. If enough of voting Americans believe the unrelenting biased claims that one-billion dollars will unleash, the stock market bear will be inspired. The stock market bear finds political lies and a believing public erotic. One reason for the bull’s inability to regain solid dominance is the stalling of incumbent unpopularity. The bull is aroused with incumbent unpopularity because their only contribution to economic prosperity is to undo prior damage.

Congressional popularity, although low, is not decreasing. All that means is that the voting public does not like congressional representatives from districts other than their own. Anticipating high congressional turnover inspired the stock market bull in 2010, but stalling polls suggest minimal congressional turnover about eleven months from now. The bear is inspired with low congressional turnover. That suggests status quo is okay with the voting public, but increased regulation is not okay to corporate profits.

Political chitchat is increasingly promoting the idea that profits are evil. Corporate profits do more to enhance the quality of life than all government spending around the world since the beginning of time. Most politicians do not recognize this, as corporate profits do nothing to polish their egotistical needs. The increasing dialog attacking corporate profits is not inspirational to the stock market bull. For centuries, the politically minded have confiscated assets that accumulate from those profits.

Europe continues to threaten with defaults. It will continue to do so until those folks are told to work until 70-years old, work 48-hour weeks at a minimum, and bias tax policy favorable to the real wealth building enterprises of manufacturing, extraction, and agriculture. Four-day workweeks, retiring with full pay at 50-years old, and six week paid vacations is not only economically bearish, it threatens the human species.

The strengthening U.S. dollar is a convoluted issue. It is not that the dollar is strong. Puny European currencies and weakening Far East economies is acting as a buoy to the dollar. All of this should eventually lead to inflation even though the U.S. economy continues to strengthen. Incumbent politicians will take credit for any economic improvement even though the world has enjoyed several periods of economic expansion before any of them were born. The informed chuckle at their nonsensical commentary, but the bear rejoices when the masses take political rhetoric as serious and meaningful commentary.

Overall debt around the world reveals the generation following the greatest generation was not a good one. Look at the debt that generation is leaving behind. Now the grandkids are in charge. They are even weaker and dumber than their parents were. For proof just watch some broadcast journalists on television from time to time.

Even with all these problems confronting the stock market bull, there are many who add value. Although they most likely represent no more than 20% of the working population, their productive efforts far exceed that of the other 80% or so of the population. This excess trickles down to the 80%, who benefit, far more than any government program could offer them. Many recognize this economic reality. As long as 51% or more recognize this, the stock market bull will have reason to be inspired. Those 51% can contribute to reducing the burdens imposed on the 20% by politicians around the world.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

NAS#85-ILMN was the NAS100’s biggest gainer last week. It was up by 4.7%. That was pathetic for the biggest gainer. It is a Yellow Bear, although up 12.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell this past October. NAS#83-SHLD was down 30.7%, as the biggest loser. It is down 45.6% since the MTI sell signal this past November. It has been fluttering around QTI Yellow, but finally succumbed to bearish gravity.

ISTK#17-BVSN was up 9.9% last week as this group of stocks biggest gainer. This stock is down 74.7% since the MTI sell signal in Jan 2008. This stock is a yellow bear and with a long-term bearish trend.

ISTK#38-ENER was down 14.8% last week. It was the biggest loser, continuing its tradition the last four years. It is enduring a solid bearish trend, following solid bullishness that paralleled the price of oil in the late 1990’s through early 2008. It is down 99.4% since the MTI sell signals in Oct 2008.

DJIA#16-T was up a paltry 1.2% as the Dow30’s biggest gainer. AT&T has been trending bearishly for over ten years. It is a prime candidate for attracting dilettantes. Its CEO annual remuneration approximates $7-million. He is not worth that much. It is up 7.3% since the MTI buy signal in September 2010.

DJIA#01-AA was down 2.4% last week. It is down 43.3% since the MTI sell signal in July 2011. This stock is mainly a dog and bearish commodity prices are additive to that status.

DJU#03-NI was the Dow Utilities biggest gainer last week. It was up 1.7% last week. It is up 40.6% since the MTI buy signal on Sep 17, 2010. It remains in a solid bullish trend.

DJU#14-CNP was down, slightly, by 0.6%, as last week’s DJU biggest loser. It remains with a solid bullish trend and is up 55.3% since the MTI buy signal in Oct 2009.

MF#30-FBIOX was mutual fund’s biggest gainer last week as it was up by 1.2%. It is up 28.2% since the MTI buy signal in Sep 2010. This is simply a solid mutual fund to hold for several years.

MF#78-VDMIX was down 3.5% last week, as fund’s biggest loser. It is down 2.7% since the MTI sell signal this past Nov.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals. The 119-buy signals in the past eleven weeks and forty-six sell signals the past six weekends illustrate an unusual bull-bear battle during the middle of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The stock market is confused as to what it should be; bull, bear, or neutral. The problem is the wild commitments from day to day the past several months.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 240 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 58.6%. That annualizes to 38.3%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 240-stocks and funds for an average of 79.6-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 83-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 20.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 49.6-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Dec 31, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 292-stocks and funds out of 338-tracked for an average of 48.2-weeks. They were up by an average of 43.0% (annualized at 46.3%). There were 42-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 51.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 116.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There were four buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 212-stocks and funds of the 317-tracked two years ago on Jan 1, 2010. They were up by an average of 28.4%, annualized at 49.2%, since their respective buy signals an average of 30.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 103-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 42.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 94.5-weeks earlier. There were two-buy signals in addition to 182-buy signals in the prior 23-weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2009.

There were only 33-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 344-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Dec 26, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 41.9-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 55.3% (annualized at 68.7%). There were 311-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 36.2% from their respective sell signals an average of 31.7-weeks earlier. There were 33-sell signals on this weekend in 2008 while there were 570-sell signals in the prior 59-weeks, as the bear market was nearing its eventual depth, but still incomplete in its final destruction. There were only no buy signals on this weekend in 2008 even with the weighted influence to do so with the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

On Dec 28, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 243-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 147.6% (annualized at 59.6%) since their buy signals an average of 128.7-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 102-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 13.6% since their sell signals an average of 18.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2007 in addition to 87-sell signals in the prior nine weeks. The Mid-term bull cycle, originating in March 2003, was well past its peak at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies. A huge number of sell signals continued for the next several months as the bear market gained momentum throughout most of 2008, through early 2009.

Five years ago, on Dec 29, 2006, there were 313-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 344 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 106.1% (annualized at 62.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 87.9-weeks earlier. There were 31-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 13.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 20.2-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid, for the most, part in 2006.

On Dec 30, 2005, there were 269-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 94.8%, annualizing at 57.5%, since their respective buy signals an average of 85.8-weeks earlier. There were 50-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 16.0% since their sell signals an average of 27.2-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2005.

There were 304-stocks and funds with hold signals on Dec 31, 2004. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 320-stocks and funds since then. They were up by an average of 73.3%, annualizing at 66.2%, since their buy signals 57.6-weeks earlier. The 15-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 39.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 57.6-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2004. The 2004-meandering bear market that pestered throughout most of 2004 had acquiesced to the heart and soul of bullish seasonality at this time in 2004.

On Jan 2, 2004, there were 286-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 57.7% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 35.8-weeks earlier. That annualized at 83.9%. There were only four-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 28.6% since their sell signals an average of 38.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were four-buy signals in addition to 429-buy signals in the prior 41-weeks. The 2003 bull market was 44-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Jan 3, 2003, there were 277-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 19.1% since their buy signals an average of 14.3-weeks earlier, annualizing at 69.3%. There were only 12-avoided stocks and funds since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 23.0-weeks earlier. The avoided stocks and funds were down 25.9%. There were seven-buy signals in addition to 515-buy signals in the prior 23-weeks. Although the stock market bear remained in effect, it weakness was maturing in favor of the stock market bull. Some of the Aug. 2002-buy signals retained hold signals through late 2007 and early 2008, while others endured sell signals before the conclusion of calendar year 2002 and in early 2003. Energy related buy signals in Aug 2002, however, held strongly through the December 2002-record-bear for December and lasted until late 2008. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2002.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Bull and Bear Signals This Weekend

There were no buy or sell signals, as the stock market continues without commitment in either direction.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 67.7% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 133.8% and the S&P500 is up 61.9% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 143.1% since October 9, 2002.

All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months. Configurations shifted in support of normal pre-election year bullishness eight weeks ago. However, it is increasingly obvious the heart and soul of bullish seasonality may not manifest its normal bullishness in this pre-election year, which is the most bullish of all the political years along the four-year cycle. Last week’s pathetic stock market performance again challenged bullish normalcy.

The NASDAQ is down 48.4% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 17.7% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 4.2% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish the last eleven years. Technically, one could call that a secular bear; albeit a mild one.

The Dow has stumbled three times when encountering its 2000 peak value. Will it do that again? It remains above its 2000 peak for the fourth time this century for the third consecutive week in this attempt to hold above that level. The S&P500 topped its 2000 peak for a few brief weeks in 2007 and has since drifted bearishly since then including its participation in the 2008-massive bear market. The 2009-2010 bullish rebound, though, has not overcome bearish influences so far this century. The NASDAQ has never come close, as its prior peak price was hype driven. The DOTCOM sector does not perform agriculture, manufacture, or extract. Therefore, most companies within that index created no wealth. It remains appropriately bearish relative to the 2000 phony peak prices.

The following performance statistics reflect the performance on this weekend in the noted year. The years do not always conclude at the end of the week. That is reason why year-ending performance is slightly different from performances on this weekend in the respective years noted below.

The NASDAQ was down 21.6% on this weekend in 2001. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality manifested early in the cycle, but floundered at the approach of the Santa Claus rally.

The NASDAQ was down 31.3% on this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ was up 50.5% on this weekend in 2003. It finished 2003 up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 8.7% from that year’s meandering bear market, but finished 2004 up by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was up 1.4% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up by 9.5% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 10.7% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline. The 2008-bear was already underway at this time of year in 2007.

The NASDAQ was down by 41.5% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 45.3% on this weekend in 2009 and finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 17.4% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is up 5.5% this year. The S&P500 is flat for the year. The NASDAQ is down 1.8% this year. As you can see, the stock market bull did not conform to historical standards.

The Dow is down 13.7% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 8.9% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 19.6% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. This coincides with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007.

Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that, though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 twenty-six weeks ago. That was the second time this year such accomplishment was enjoyed by the S&P600.

Several indices have never challenged those peak prices. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 21.8% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. As you can see from recent stock market behavior, suspicions about the 2009-2011 bull leg had merit. It still does. The reason for those suspicions was near maximal incongruence between political leadership and the underlying principles of capital markets. The Dec 12, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow is up 86.8% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 105.3% and the S&P500 is up 85.9% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 128.3% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Such a successor bear cycle may now be underway, although not expected to continue as Washington DC has a propensity to stalemate during presidential election years. This is especially true when the president is unpopular. Both of those conditions persist and favorable to the stock market bull, but polls are suggesting it is too close to inspire the stock market bull. That, coupled with European weakness, confronts the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

As promised by Bernanke in late 2008, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat in their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value. Bernanke continues with his promise of more of the same through 2012. Policy settings typically remain fixed during the second half of a president’s term. That stability is one reason why the historical record demonstrates stock market bullishness from the mid-term election year through the election year. Fortunately, U.S. politicians are losing influence on the shrinking world stage. Unfortunately, foreign politicians are made of the same DNA, which is unfavorable to any economic activity. Unfortunately, the paper currency basis of worldwide economies is under threat, as the culmination of OPM disease by politicians may be approaching the “critical dimension.”

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. They have been yielding zero for the past 21-weeks.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 50-weeks ago. It lost Red Bull status 15-weeks ago with a continuing sharp drop against the greenback. You can see it has a triple camelback with negative (bearish) trend. It is on the verge of becoming a Yellow Bear, but not quite yet there.

The Canadian dollar remains within the tolerances of its weakening cycle. It is more solidly resuming a cycle of weakness. The CA$ moved in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) 16-weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull (bearish for the CA$), which threatens its cycle of strengthening. The Japanese Yen continue strengthening, although bearish the past two weeks. The Japanese yen remains extraordinarily strong due to that country’s superior management in the private sector.

Gold’s optimistic 2012 forecast has been elevated to $1800/oz. As you can see, it is no longer a Red Bull. Despite solid bearish behavior in ten of the past 14-weeks, it continues trading above the 2012 yearend forecast curve, but getting close to losing that lofty position. The $2,000/oz.-forecast by 2014 remains challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains intact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild, but with deepening bearish bias. It fell below yellow 20-weeks ago on souring economic news, but rebounded ten weeks ago. Despite periodic days of depressed behavior, it is holding up well. It escaped Yellow Bear status, as expected. It is now in the neutral zone.

Commodity prices continue falling from their recent record highs due to souring economic forecast. None are Red Bulls. Their potential contribution to inflationary pressures remains absent, as most are now Yellow bears or within the zone of neutrality. Their mid-term cycle remains bullish but under attack by the commodities bear. However, their behavior has not disrupted their general bullish trend that originated in early 2009

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures fell prey to bearish economic pressures the past few weeks. It is approaching Yellow Bear status, but it continues resisting that condition with a strong rebound in three of the last six weeks. However, it is now very close to becoming a yellow bear, as it was bearish last week.

Commodity prices, overall, are favoring potential for a bearish cycle. If it manifests, some elements of inflationary threats will be dampened.

Mortgage rates continue moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011. They continue along a bearish cycle.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and currently non-threatening toward inflation or deflation.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 also received an MTI sell signal on Dec 16, 2011 and down 1.6% since then.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It received a buy signal on Oct 28, 2011 after missing an 18% opportunity due to rapid bullishness ahead of Force Vector justification to signal buy. It is down 11.6% since that buy signal. Its proximity to MTI Yellow prevented a sell signal even though Force is in bearish domains. The problem with Vanguard is the number of restrictions on trades.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 28, 2011 after missing about 20% of opportunity. The Mid-term Indicant had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011. It is up 4.5% since that sell signal. Force must climb into bullish domains and price must eclipse blue before the next buy signal. Force is threatening to do so, but was too timid last week to make that commitment.

The Near-term and Quick-term signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Dec 14, 2011. It is up by 5.1% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. It was up over 25.0%, annualized at 29.0% from its Quick-term buy signal on Sep 15, 2010 and the Quick-term sell signal on Aug 8, 2011. It was down slightly between the Dec 1, 2011 buy signal and the sell signal on Dec 14, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 28, 2011. It was up about 90.% since the previous buy signal in Dec 2008 and annualizing at 30.5%. It is up 0.6% since the most recent sell signal. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy on Jul 6, 2011. It was up about 10% until the NTI signaled sell on Sep 23, 2011. It was flat since that sell signal and its most recent buy signal on Oct 26, 2011. It was down slightly from that Oct 26, 2011 buy signal until the sell signal on Dec 12, 2011. It is now down 6.2% since that Dec 12, 2011 near-term sell signal.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for nine of the major indices. They are up by an average of 5.6%, since their bull signals an average of 14.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 20.1%. The lone bear, NASDAQ100, is up by 5.9% since its bear signal five weeks ago. It did not qualify for a bull signal. Its Force Vector needs to cross above Pressure and/or into bullish domains. Also, price must climb above NTI Blue and it continues with an inability to do so.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $30,054,053. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,858,749 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $131,823. That beats buy and hold’s $123,185 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $207,759. That beats buy and hold’s $90,331 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,570.7%, 7.0%, and 130.0%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 79.1% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 322.1% (annualized at 15.9%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,052-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report – Summary

Unanimity in either direction remains absent. Some non-contrarian ETF’s are holding and others are being avoided.

Force Vectors started shifting south toward some ETF’s with bearish Vector Pressure, which is normally a bearish configuration. The stock market appears to have to endure declining Force for a few days. Interestingly, rather than nose-diving, some are wavering in bullish domains. That is normally non-bearish, but their close proximity to bearish domains allows the stock market bear opportunities to pounce on the stock market bull. Although bull signals remain in the majority, the absence of unanimity in either direction allows room for the bull or bear to attack.

The DJU is solidly bullish along the near-term and mid-term cycle. With that, the bear could easily be influenced to hibernate. It is impossible for the bear to dominate with the prevailing DJU configuration. Its Force is shifting in a bearish direction, but until it falls below Pressure, the stock market bear cannot dominate.

The NASDAQ and NAS100 are enjoying bullish Force, but having difficulty eclipsing NTI Blue. This is slowing the bear’s movement toward hibernation. Some have the propensity to blame the bear’s refusal to hibernate on global warming.

Contrarian VIX is unreasonably below NTI Green and has been bullish in three of the past four days. Its Force Vector is climbing. Its interaction with Pressure early next week will be interesting.

ETF-#11-GLD Quick-term Indicant signaled sell this past Wednesday. That was the first QTI signal since it signaled buy in Dec. 2008. It garnished a 90% in that short-term bullish cycle. It fell below QTI Yellow on Dec 28, 2011, triggering that sell signal. The model forced the sell since its price fell below QTI Yellow with an existing near-term avoid signal. Keep in mind, QTI-Yellow is a common bouncing point to near-term cyclical declines. It will be interesting to see if there is a bounce. The stock market has been behaving with maximal volatility around QTI Yellow. That suggests the bull/bear battle is continuing. Until a breakout or breakdown occurs, expect more volatility.

The stock market bear is doing a good job avoiding hibernation. The stock market bull continues expressing its puniness when the bear should be hibernating.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Index Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for nine non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 0.3% since their bull signals an average of 1.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 11.2%. The remaining near-term bears, including contrarian VIX, are down by an average of 6.3% since their bear signals an average of 3.0-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bull and no new bears.

The nine Quick-term bulls are up by an average of 0.4% since their bull signals an average of 1.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 13.2%. The three remaining bears are down by an average of 6.3% since their bear signals 3.0-weeks ago. This includes contrarian VIX, which is down 23.6% since its bear signal on Nov 29, 2011.

Indicant Volume Indicators

No changes to this paragraph for several weeks. Both IVI’s sloped downward on recent bullishness, which suggests a lack of bullish inspiration. This is troubling. Adding to that concern is the NASDAQ’s IVI falling into low interest domains during the current near-term bull cycle. The NYSE recently did the same (early Nov). Some of that, however, is due to seasonal volume. Recent bearish behavior has been more supported with volume than recent bullish behavior.

Dec 30-Fri-Same as yesterday. Volume will become relevant in a few days.

Dec 29-Thu-Again very low volume on herky-jerky behavior suggests a few are simply having some fun.

Dec 28-Wed-Holiday volume remains seasonally depressed, as the “bailed out” continue enjoying the holidays with your tax dollars.

Dec 27-Tue-Holiday volume continues and offering little support for any directional intensity.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 19-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 0.3% since their buy signals an average of 1.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 10.2%.

The NTI is avoiding 13-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 0.3% since their sell signals an average of 2.5-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 18-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 2.0% since their buy signals an average of 4.5-weeks ago. This annualizes at 22.6%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 14-ETFs. They are down by an average of 0.3% since their QTI sell signals an average of 3.5-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Quick-term Indicant and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Dec 14, 2011, as Force fell below Pressure and into bearish domains. It is up 5.2% since those sell signals. Price is bouncing off QTI bearish yellow curve. Force crossed above Pressure one week ago, but price still remains below the near-term blue curve and thus no buy signal. Declining Force is additional justification for avoiding.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals was up 90% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008 until the QTI signaled sell this past Wednesday. It is up 0.6% since that sell signal. The Quick-term Indicant will not consider buying until the Near-term Indicant is holding and price greater than QTI Yellow.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Dec 12, 2011, as price fell below NTI Green with declining Force in bearish domains. Dropping below Green a few weeks ago did not trigger a bullish response, which has been common since late 2008, adding support to the near-term bearish pressure. It is down 6.2% since that sell signal.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold. As the U.S. dollar strengthens, gold is in trouble along the short-term cycle.

ETF#31-QID received sell signals from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant on Dec 23, 2011, as Force crossed below Pressure and into bearish domains. That is too threatening for holding even though QQQ remains with an avoid signal. Force is now increasing and once it crosses above Pressure and into bullish domains, a buy signal will be triggered. It is up 0.8% since those sell signals. Weakening Force is stalling, which offers some bullish hope for this ETF.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 30, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 15.0% since those sell signals. Its Force Vector continues moving north. It must cross above Pressure and into bullish domains before buying. Price must be higher than NTI Blue Curve, also.

Major ETF Events

Dec 30-Fri-Declining stock market Force has been arrested, offering a non-bearish inclination, but not yet with a bullish configuration.

Dec 28-Wed-Force Vectors started moving south. If they fall below Pressure and into bearish domains, sell signals will be triggered, yet again.

Dec 27-Tue-Another ETF and one major index enjoyed increased configured support for short-term bullishness.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Dec 30, 2011-Declining Force has slowed offering the bull some hope, but configurations remain more mixed than supporting bullish or bearish directional intensity. Be prepared to trade if you are holding. Relax a bit more if you are in cash.

Reverse Tangential Projections

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed bullish convergence for four consecutive weeks through week-ending Oct 28, 2011. That would normally influence continued bullish behavior. That bullish phenomenon remains irrelevant. Unfortunately, the stock market endured four consecutive weeks of combined bearish convergent/divergent behavior during late Nov. That remains relevant. The stock market bear remains with a bit of an edge with this attribute.

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past six weeks, the NASDAQ100 again toppled its 2007 peak twelve weeks ago along the Mid-term cycle. That was the fourth time it has done that this year. Each time it retreated. The NAS100 crossed above 2007’s cyclical peak again five weeks ago. That was the fifth time it has done that this year. It did not hold above that level. It was flat with its Oct 2007 peak three weeks ago, but above 2007’s peak two weeks ago. That is the sixth time the NASDAQ crossed above its 2007 peak. This fluttering needs to be abandoned before the stock market bull can regain dominance. Although it held above 2007’s peak last week, it was mildly bearish in doing so. The stock market is increasingly finding little justification to be higher than it was in late 2007.

It is increasingly apparent the heart and soul of bullish seasonality will be disappointing this year.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

01/01/2012