July 31,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 07, Issue
20 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Eight of thirty; bullish bias remains, although weakening. Seven are
non-contrarian and provide potential bullish energy.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears:
Seven; non-bearish support continues, but being threatened.
Short-term/Quick-term Non-Bearishness:
Countering sustainable bearish ambition.
Force
Vectors:
Shifting south, suggesting a pause in bullish behavior and increasing
bearish threats.
Vector
Pressure:
Thirteen in
bullish domains; threatening bullish bias.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Safe, but no
longer solidly safe.
Immediate
Tactics:
Preserve Cash
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Bullish, but
in a battle with the bear.
Overall
Market Status:
Bullish bias
prevailing, but weakening.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Increasing volatility is favorable.
Volume:
Configurations mixed with a
slight edge favor bearish behavior.
Comments
from April 20, 2007
Both the
NASDAQ and NYSE Indexes passed above their upper trading range limit. That
means a new trading range is being established and is not an indication of
immediate bias.
Force
Vectors and Vector Pressure maintained bullish bias during the
Greenspan/China bearishness that originated in late February and lasted
for a few days in early March. Viewing the Indicant Volume Indicator
charts (link is below) is a testament about how one should not engage
trading behavior based on contemporary news. Only two ETF sell signals
were generated from the late February-early March bearishness that was
invoked by news and nothing substantive. The bullish bias that originated
on August 15, 2006 prevails.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bear on July 26, 2007 for both the Dow
and NASDAQ. They are down 1.9% and 2.0%, respectively since then.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
This
attribute is the same as yesterday.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s are configuring robustly, but today’s
bullish behavior suggests timidity with respect to solid bearish support.
As long as this attribute remains mixed with vacillating bull/bear
support, the cyclical bias remains in support of the bull even though near
term bias favored the bear. Please read on.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the SQI is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up 67.0% (annualized at
27.4%) since their respective buy signals an average of 125.8-weeks ago.
Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding four ETF’s. They
are down an average of 2.4% since their sell signals an average of
3.2-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up an
average of 79.3% (annualized 33.4%) since the STI signaled, buy, an
average of 122.0-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there
are two avoid signals. They are down 2.4% since their sell signals an
average of 3.2-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 22.8% (annualized at 21.0%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 55.9-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding nine ETF’s. They are down by an average of
2.3% since their sell signals an average of 2.4-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There are
five conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term
Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. Although
weakened recently, the bias shift on August 15, 2006 remains in favor of
the bull.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Seven of the
30-ETF’s are below their bearish yellow curves. The average relative
position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 4.4%. This
remains configured in support of the market’s non-bearish posture. There
is no longer minimal support for sustainable bearish assertions. However,
this attribute is not configured with support for sustainable bearish
behavior at this time, but the threat is increasing.
Eight ETF’s
are above their respective bullish red curves. That is down by fifteen
from eight-trading days ago, but held flat today. This configuration
supports the underlying bullish bias, although weakened. All thirty ETF
average positions are 3.5% below their bullish red curves.
Although the
average position is below bullish red, only one non-contrarian fund above
bullish red will help retain bullish bias. If all non-contrarian funds
fall below bullish red, the bear will be at a significant advantage to
overpower the bull.
Bearish
spurts occur from time to time. Until all non-contrarian funds fall below
their bullish red curves, bearish expressions should be considered as mere
spurts. From time to time, other attributes are required to confirm this
prognosis.
At this
time, configurations indicate bearish expressions in the immediate future
will be mere spurt behavior. There is no indication of sustainable bearish
behavior.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
None of the
thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. As stated the past
several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since last
August is solidly bullish. This repeated contact solidly supports the
underlying bullish bias. Contact in sixty of the last eighty-two trading
days remains supportive of bullish bias. Non-contact with the breakout
lines the past five trading-days suggests the bull is resting, but not yet
defeated by the bear.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 7.8%. This remains in support of the
bullish bias.
One of the
ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. Again, the culprit
is
ETF #17-Real Estate was the first in over two years.
The average
distance from the price and breakdown remains a healthy 20.1%. This
configuration provides non-bearish support, which has been the case since
March 2003. There have been several bearish “spurts” since then with no
sustainability or dynamic support. The probability of immediate contact
remains low and thus a non-bearish bias is maintained on a short-term
basis, except for those funds with noted contact.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
One of the thirty ETF Force Vectors continue toward bullish domains. As
stated eight trading days ago, Force Vectors are now decreasing, which
suggests a pause in bullish expressions. The underlying bias remains
bullish, however.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. The signals
are listed there. There was one put option buy signal after today’s close
for the second consecutive day.
As stated
the past few days, with Force Vectors and Vector Pressure moving south,
consider bullish expressions as bullish spurts against a micro-bearish
bias. As stated early last week, Force Vectors are moving robustly to the
south favoring a bearish bias on a near term basis. Plummeting Force
Vectors appear to be reversing the bearish cycle. If the impending cycle
to the north does not cross into bullish domains, expect bearish dominance
to resume. Although the theme continues with a bullish bias, there is no
conflict. Long-term hold positions should be maintained while new money
should remain in cash.
Thirteen
ETF
Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. As stated the past few days, the
current configurations remain in support the Quick-term bullish bias shift
from August 15, 2006, although favoring increasing bearish spurt activity.
As stated the past few days, several Quick-term and Short-term attributes
have weakened in favor of bearish behavior. However, keep in mind, overall
configurations favor bullish bias.
It is common for bull/bear battles when
Vector Pressure is being threatened from its support of the prevailing
bias.
As long as
this attribute holds above fifteen within confines of other Quick-term
attributes, bearish expressions are mere spurts, where there is no
sustainability. It is now below fifteen and is a major threat to the bull.
However, the
next major attribute to monitor is the number of red bulls. As long some
non-contrarian red bulls continue to exist, the bull can resume its
influence. Seven non-contrarian red bulls.persist.
This
paragraph is repeated from June 26, 2007 daily stock market report. Depth
is a relative term. For those of you who bought several months ago,
holding until bearish yellow is achieved, will be accomplished with ease.
For those of you who bought in the past few weeks may not prefer to wait
for the victor of the bear/bull battle that typically occurs at the
bearish yellow curve.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The shift
from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006
after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15.
The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models continue suggesting a
bullish bias.
Do not write
covered call options while Vector Pressure is positive (bullish), which is
the current configuration. Increasing volatility suggests the market is
not ripe for the risk here.
The
Quick-term Bull remains in tact.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is no longer avoiding
QQQQ, which no longer supports holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra
Short.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Quick-term ETF Options
Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s
Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related
tours.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.Net
07/31/07
July 30,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 07, Issue
19 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Eight of thirty; bullish bias remains, although weakening.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears:
Four; non-bearish support continues, but being threatened.
Short-term/Quick-term Non-Bearishness:
Countering sustainable bearish ambition.
Force
Vectors:
Shifting south, suggesting a pause in bullish behavior and increasing
bearish threats.
Vector
Pressure:
Fifteen in
bullish domains; threatening bullish bias.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Safe, but no
longer solidly safe.
Immediate
Tactics:
Preserve Cash
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Bullish
Overall
Market Status:
Bullish bias
prevailing, but weakening.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Increasing volatility is favorable.
Volume:
Configurations mixed with a slight edge favor bearish behavior.
Comments
from April 20, 2007
Both the
NASDAQ and NYSE Indexes passed above their upper trading range limit. That
means a new trading range is being established and is not an indication of
immediate bias.
Force
Vectors and Vector Pressure maintained bullish bias during the
Greenspan/China bearishness that originated in late February and lasted
for a few days in early March. Viewing the Indicant Volume Indicator
charts (link is below) is a testament about how one should not engage
trading behavior based on contemporary news. Only two ETF sell signals
were generated from the late February-early March bearishness that was
invoked by news and nothing substantive. The bullish bias that originated
on August 15, 2006 prevails.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bear on July 26, 2007 for both the Dow
and NASDAQ. They are down 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively since then.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s are configuring robustly, but today’s
bullish behavior suggests timidity with respect to solid bearish support.
As long as this attribute remains mixed with vacillating bull/bear
support, the cyclical bias remains in support of the bull even though near
term bias favored the bear. Please read on.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the SQI is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up 68.6% (annualized at
28.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 125.7-weeks ago.
Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding four ETF’s. They
are down an average of 1.2% since their sell signals an average of
3.1-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up an
average of 81.0% (annualized 34.2%) since the STI signaled, buy, an
average of 121.9-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there
are two avoid signals. They are down 1.2% since their sell signals an
average of 3.1-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 24.0% (annualized at 22.2%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 55.7-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding nine ETF’s. They are down by an average of
1.2% since their sell signals an average of 2.3-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There are
five conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term
Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. Although
weakened recently, the bias shift on August 15, 2006 remains in favor of
the bull.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Four of the
30-ETF’s are below their bearish yellow curves. The average relative
position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 5.5%. This
remains configured in support of the market’s non-bearish posture. There
is no longer minimal support for sustainable bearish assertions. However,
this attribute is not configured with support for sustainable bearish
behavior at this time.
Eight ETF’s
are above their respective bullish red curves. That is down by fifteen
from seven-trading days ago. This configuration supports the underlying
bullish bias, although weakened. All thirty ETF average positions are 2.5%
below their bullish red curves.
Although the
average position is below bullish red, only one non-contrarian fund above
bullish red will help retain bullish bias. If all non-contrarian funds
fall below bullish red, the bear will be at a significant advantage to
overpower the bull.
Bearish
spurts occur from time to time. Until all non-contrarian funds fall below
their bullish red curves, bearish expressions should be considered as mere
spurts. From time to time, other attributes are required to confirm this
prognosis.
At this
time, configurations indicate bearish expressions in the immediate future
will be mere spurt behavior. There is no indication of sustainable bearish
behavior.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
None of the
thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. As stated the past
several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since last
August is solidly bullish. This repeated contact solidly supports the
underlying bullish bias. Contact in sixty of the last eighty-one trading
days remains supportive of bullish bias. Non-contact with the breakout
lines the past four trading-days suggests the bull is resting.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 6.9%. This remains in support of the
bullish bias.
None of the
ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. Last week’s contact
with
ETF #17-Real Estate was the first in over two years. Although ominous
last week, it did lift above that perilous point on today. Keep an eye on
this particular ETF as it may be a leading indicator to overall market
behavior, depending on how it responds to bearish influences the past
several days.
The average
distance from the price and breakdown remains a healthy 21.9%. This
configuration provides tremendous non-bearish support, which has been the
case since March 2003. There have been several bearish “spurts” since then
with no sustainability or dynamic support. The probability of immediate
contact remains low and thus a non-bearish bias is maintained on a
short-term basis, except for those funds with noted contact.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
One of the thirty ETF Force Vectors continue toward bullish domains. As
stated seven trading days ago, Force Vectors are now decreasing, which
suggests a pause in bullish expressions. The underlying bias remains
bullish, however.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. The signals
are listed there. There was one put option buy signal after today’s close.
With Force Vectors and Vector Pressure
moving south, consider bullish expressions as bullish spurts against a
micro-bearish bias. As stated early last week, Force Vectors are moving
robustly to the south favoring a bearish bias on a near term basis.
Plummeting Force Vectors appear to be reversing the bearish cycle. If the
impending cycle to the north does not cross into bullish domains, expect
bearish dominance to resume. Although the theme continues with a bullish
bias, there is no conflict. Long-term hold positions should be maintained
while new money should remain in cash.
Fifteen
ETF Vector Pressures are in
bullish domains. As stated the past few days, the current configurations
remain in support the Quick-term bullish bias shift from August 15, 2006,
although favoring increasing bearish spurt activity. As stated the past
few days, several Quick-term and Short-term attributes have weakened in
favor of bearish behavior. However, keep in mind, overall configurations
favor bullish bias.
It is common for bull/bear battles when
Vector Pressure is being threatened from its support of the prevailing
bias.
As long as
this attribute holds above fifteen within confines of other Quick-term
attributes, bearish expressions are mere spurts, where there is no
sustainability. If and when it falls below fifteen, other attributes will
be evaluated and the bias assessment will be adjusted accordingly.
This
paragraph is repeated from June 26, 2007 daily stock market report. Depth
is a relative term. For those of you who bought several months ago,
holding until bearish yellow is achieved, will be accomplished with ease.
For those of you who bought in the past few weeks may not prefer to wait
for the victor of the bear/bull battle that typically occurs at the
bearish yellow curve.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The shift
from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006
after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15.
The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models continue suggesting a
bullish bias.
Do not write
covered call options while Vector Pressure is positive (bullish), which is
the current configuration. Increasing volatility suggests the market is
not ripe for the risk here.
The
Quick-term Bull remains in tact.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is no longer avoiding
QQQQ, which no longer supports holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra
Short.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Quick-term ETF Options
Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s
Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related
tours.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.Net
07/30/07
July 27,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 07, Issue
18 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Nine of thirty; bullish bias remains, although weakening.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears:
Seven; non-bearish support continues, but being threatened.
Short-term/Quick-term Non-Bearishness:
Countering sustainable bearish ambition.
Force
Vectors:
Shifting south, suggesting a pause in bullish behavior and increasing
bearish threats.
Vector
Pressure:
Supportive
of bullish bias.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Solidly
safe.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Bullish
Overall
Market Status:
Bullish bias
prevailing, but weakening.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Increasing volatility is favorable.
Volume:
Configurations remain in support of underlying bullish bias.
Comments
from April 20, 2007
Both the
NASDAQ and NYSE Indexes passed above their upper trading range limit. That
means a new trading range is being established and is not an indication of
immediate bias.
Force
Vectors and Vector Pressure maintained bullish bias during the
Greenspan/China bearishness that originated in late February and lasted
for a few days in early March. Viewing the Indicant Volume Indicator
charts (link is below) is a testament about how one should not engage
trading behavior based on contemporary news. Only two ETF sell signals
were generated from the late February-early March bearishness that was
invoked by news and nothing substantive. The bullish bias that originated
on August 15, 2006 prevails.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The
Short-term Indicant signaled bear yesterday for both the Dow and
NASDAQ when configurations shifted in favor of the bear on the immediate
horizon.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s are configuring robustly. As stated last
Wednesday, there is an increased probability in near-term bearish bias.
Even though the Dow is down over 500-points since then, the underlying
configuration continues to support the cyclical bullish bias. Both of the
previous two sentences continue to hold true. Those two truths will not
last long.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and one sell signal. Although there were no buy signals,
the SQI is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up 67.8% (annualized at
27.9%) since their respective buy signals an average of 125.3-weeks ago.
In addition to the sell signal, the SQI is avoiding three ETF’s. They are
down 3.0% since their sell signals an average of 3.5-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and one sell signal. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up an
average of 77.6% (annualized 32.9%) since the STI signaled, buy, an
average of 121.5-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signal, there are
two avoid signals. They are down 3.0% since their sell signals an average
of 3.5-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and three sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 21.9% (annualized at 20.4%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 55.3-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signals, the Quick-term
Indicant is avoiding six ETF’s. They are down by an average of 3.6% since
their sell signals an average of 2.8-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There are
six conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant
are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. The bias shift on
August 15, 2006 remains in favor of the bull.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Seven of the
30-ETF’s are below their bearish yellow curves. The average relative
position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 3.9%. This
remains configured in support of the market’s non-bearish posture. There
is no longer minimal support for sustainable bearish assertions. However,
this attribute is not configured with support for sustainable bearish
behavior.
Nine ETF’s
are above their respective bullish red curves. That is down by fourteen
from six-trading days ago. This configuration supports the underlying
bullish bias, although weakened. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.9%
below their bullish red curves.
Bearish
spurts occur from time to time. Until all non-contrarian funds fall below
their bullish red curves, bearish expressions should be considered as mere
spurts. From time to time, other attributes are required to confirm this
prognosis.
At this
time, configurations indicate bearish expressions in the immediate future
will be mere spurt behavior. There is no indication of sustainable bearish
behavior.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
None of the
thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. As stated the past
several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since last
August is solidly bullish. This repeated contact solidly supports the
underlying bullish bias. Contact in sixty of the last eighty trading days
remains supportive of bullish bias. Non-contact with the breakout lines
the past three days suggests the bull is resting.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 8.3%. This remains in support of the
bullish bias.
One of the
ETF’s is contacting its breakdown line. That is the first time this has
configured since 2004.
It is ETF #17-Real Estate. The average distance from the price and
breakdown is 19.6%. This configuration provides tremendous non-bearish
support, which has been the case since March 2003. There have been several
bearish “spurts” since then with no sustainability or dynamic support. The
probability of immediate contact remains low and thus a non-bearish bias
is maintained on a short-term basis, except for those funds with noted
contact.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
One of the thirty ETF Force Vectors continue toward bullish domains. As
stated six trading days ago, Force Vectors are now decreasing, which
suggests a pause in bullish expressions. The underlying bias remains
bullish, however.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. The signals
are listed there. There were three put option buy signals after Friday’s
close.
With Force Vectors and Vector Pressure
moving south, consider bullish expressions as bullish spurts against a
micro-bearish bias. As stated earlier this week, Force Vectors are moving
robustly to the south favoring a bearish bias on a near term basis. The
behavior on the re-bound will advise when this attribute expires. If Force
Vectors move above the Indicant line into bullish domains, then bullish
bias will again be dominant. If Force Vectors turn back to the south into
bearish domains, put option opportunities will increase. Also, that
configuration would support an increased probability of sustainability by
the bear.
Seventeen
ETF
Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. As stated the past few days, the
current configurations remain in support the Quick-term bullish bias shift
from August 15, 2006, although favoring increasing bearish spurt activity.
As stated the past few days, several Quick-term and Short-term attributes
have weakened in favor of bearish behavior. However, keep in mind, overall
configurations favor bullish bias.
It is common for bull/bear battles when
Vector Pressure is being threatened from its support of the prevailing
bias.
As long as
this attribute holds above fifteen within confines of other Quick-term
attributes, bearish expressions are mere spurts, where there is no
sustainability. If and when it falls below fifteen, other attributes will
be evaluated and the bias assessment will be adjusted accordingly.
This
paragraph is repeated from June 26, 2007 daily stock market report. Depth
is a relative term. For those of you who bought several months ago,
holding until bearish yellow is achieved, will be accomplished with ease.
For those of you who bought in the past few weeks may not prefer to wait
for the victor of the bear/bull battle that typically occurs at the
bearish yellow curve.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The shift
from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006
after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15.
The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models continue suggesting a
bullish bias.
Do not write
covered call options while Vector Pressure is positive (bullish), which is
the current configuration. Increasing volatility suggests the market is
not ripe for the risk here.
The
Quick-term Bull remains in tact.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is no longer avoiding
QQQQ, which no longer supports holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra
Short.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Quick-term ETF Options
Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s
Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related
tours.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.Net
07/27/07
July 26,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 07, Issue
17 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Nine of thirty; bullish bias remains, although weakening.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears:
Four; non-bearish support continues, but being threatened.
Short-term/Quick-term Non-Bearishness:
Countering sustainable bearish ambition.
Force
Vectors:
Shifting south, suggesting a pause in bullish behavior and increasing
bearish threats.
Vector
Pressure:
Supportive
of bullish bias.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Solidly
safe.