Return Home | Table of Contents | FAQ's |  Become a Member | ETF's |  Current Report Card | Member Updates | Login

Media Kit | Free Stock Market History | Indicant Performance Advantage | Current Positions | Back Issues | Contact Us

 

July Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Updates

Scroll Down to View Back Issues

 

Click here to see the current month's daily reports.

This year's daily updates will be available here at month's end.

 

 

July 31, 2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 07, Issue 20 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Eight of thirty; bullish bias remains, although weakening. Seven are non-contrarian and provide potential bullish energy.

Quick-term Yellow Bears: Seven; non-bearish support continues, but being threatened.

Short-term/Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Countering sustainable bearish ambition.

Force Vectors: Shifting south, suggesting a pause in bullish behavior and increasing bearish threats.

Vector Pressure: Thirteen in bullish domains; threatening bullish bias.

Long-term Hold Positions: Safe, but no longer solidly safe.

Immediate Tactics: Preserve Cash

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish, but in a battle with the bear.

Overall Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakening.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Increasing volatility is favorable.

Volume: Configurations mixed with a slight edge favor bearish behavior.

 

Comments from April 20, 2007

Both the NASDAQ and NYSE Indexes passed above their upper trading range limit. That means a new trading range is being established and is not an indication of immediate bias.

 

Force Vectors and Vector Pressure maintained bullish bias during the Greenspan/China bearishness that originated in late February and lasted for a few days in early March. Viewing the Indicant Volume Indicator charts (link is below) is a testament about how one should not engage trading behavior based on contemporary news. Only two ETF sell signals were generated from the late February-early March bearishness that was invoked by news and nothing substantive. The bullish bias that originated on August 15, 2006 prevails.

 

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on July 26, 2007 for both the Dow and NASDAQ. They are down 1.9% and 2.0%, respectively since then.

 

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

 

This attribute is the same as yesterday. Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  are configuring robustly, but today’s bullish behavior suggests timidity with respect to solid bearish support. As long as this attribute remains mixed with vacillating bull/bear support, the cyclical bias remains in support of the bull even though near term bias favored the bear. Please read on.

 

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up 67.0% (annualized at 27.4%) since their respective buy signals an average of 125.8-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding four ETF’s.  They are down an average of 2.4% since their sell signals an average of 3.2-weeks ago.

 

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

 

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up an average of 79.3% (annualized 33.4%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of  122.0-weeks ago.  Although there were no sell signals, there are two avoid signals. They are down 2.4% since their sell signals an average of 3.2-weeks ago.

 

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

 

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 22.8% (annualized at 21.0%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 55.9-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding nine ETF’s. They are down by an average of 2.3% since their sell signals an average of 2.4-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

 

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are five conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. Although weakened recently, the bias shift on August 15, 2006 remains in favor of the bull.

 

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Seven of the 30-ETF’s are below their bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 4.4%.  This remains configured in support of the market’s non-bearish posture. There is no longer minimal support for sustainable bearish assertions. However, this attribute is not configured with support for sustainable bearish behavior at this time, but the threat is increasing.

 

Eight ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves. That is down by fifteen from eight-trading days ago, but held flat today. This configuration supports the underlying bullish bias, although weakened. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.5% below their bullish red curves.

 

Although the average position is below bullish red, only one non-contrarian fund above bullish red will help retain bullish bias. If all non-contrarian funds fall below bullish red, the bear will be at a significant advantage to overpower the bull.

 

Bearish spurts occur from time to time. Until all non-contrarian funds fall below their bullish red curves, bearish expressions should be considered as mere spurts. From time to time, other attributes are required to confirm this prognosis.

 

At this time, configurations indicate bearish expressions in the immediate future will be mere spurt behavior. There is no indication of sustainable bearish behavior.

 

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

 

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. As stated the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since last August is solidly bullish. This repeated contact solidly supports the underlying bullish bias. Contact in sixty of the last eighty-two trading days remains supportive of bullish bias. Non-contact with the breakout lines the past five trading-days suggests the bull is resting, but not yet defeated by the bear.

 

The average distance from breakout contact is 7.8%. This remains in support of the bullish bias.

 

One of the ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. Again, the culprit is ETF #17-Real Estate was the first in over two years.

 

The average distance from the price and breakdown remains a healthy 20.1%. This configuration provides non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003. There have been several bearish “spurts” since then with no sustainability or dynamic support. The probability of immediate contact remains low and thus a non-bearish bias is maintained on a short-term basis, except for those funds with noted contact.

 

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.


One of the thirty ETF Force Vectors continue toward bullish domains. As stated eight trading days ago, Force Vectors are now decreasing, which suggests a pause in bullish expressions. The underlying bias remains bullish, however.

 

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

 

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

 

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. The signals are listed there. There was one put option buy signal after today’s close for the second consecutive day.

 

As stated the past few days, with Force Vectors and Vector Pressure moving south, consider bullish expressions as bullish spurts against a micro-bearish bias. As stated early last week, Force Vectors are moving robustly to the south favoring a bearish bias on a near term basis. Plummeting Force Vectors appear to be reversing the bearish cycle. If the impending cycle to the north does not cross into bullish domains, expect bearish dominance to resume. Although the theme continues with a bullish bias, there is no conflict. Long-term hold positions should be maintained while new money should remain in cash.

 

Thirteen ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. As stated the past few days, the current configurations remain in support the Quick-term bullish bias shift from August 15, 2006, although favoring increasing bearish spurt activity. As stated the past few days, several Quick-term and Short-term attributes have weakened in favor of bearish behavior. However, keep in mind, overall configurations favor bullish bias.

 

It is common for bull/bear battles when Vector Pressure is being threatened from its support of the prevailing bias.

 

As long as this attribute holds above fifteen within confines of other Quick-term attributes, bearish expressions are mere spurts, where there is no sustainability. It is now below fifteen and is a major threat to the bull.

 

However, the next major attribute to monitor is the number of red bulls. As long some non-contrarian red bulls continue to exist, the bull can resume its influence. Seven non-contrarian red bulls.persist.

 

This paragraph is repeated from June 26, 2007 daily stock market report. Depth is a relative term. For those of you who bought several months ago, holding until bearish yellow is achieved, will be accomplished with ease. For those of you who bought in the past few weeks may not prefer to wait for the victor of the bear/bull battle that typically occurs at the bearish yellow curve.

 

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

 

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

 

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The shift from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15. The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models continue suggesting a bullish bias.

 

Do not write covered call options while Vector Pressure is positive (bullish), which is the current configuration. Increasing volatility suggests the market is not ripe for the risk here.

 

The Quick-term Bull remains in tact.

 

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is no longer avoiding QQQQ, which no longer supports holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.

 

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

 

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

 

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

 

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

 

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

07/31/07

 

 

 

 

 

July 30, 2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 07, Issue 19 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Eight of thirty; bullish bias remains, although weakening.

Quick-term Yellow Bears: Four; non-bearish support continues, but being threatened.

Short-term/Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Countering sustainable bearish ambition.

Force Vectors: Shifting south, suggesting a pause in bullish behavior and increasing bearish threats.

Vector Pressure: Fifteen in bullish domains; threatening bullish bias.

Long-term Hold Positions: Safe, but no longer solidly safe.

Immediate Tactics: Preserve Cash

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish

Overall Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakening.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Increasing volatility is favorable.

Volume: Configurations mixed with a slight edge favor bearish behavior.

 

Comments from April 20, 2007

Both the NASDAQ and NYSE Indexes passed above their upper trading range limit. That means a new trading range is being established and is not an indication of immediate bias.

 

Force Vectors and Vector Pressure maintained bullish bias during the Greenspan/China bearishness that originated in late February and lasted for a few days in early March. Viewing the Indicant Volume Indicator charts (link is below) is a testament about how one should not engage trading behavior based on contemporary news. Only two ETF sell signals were generated from the late February-early March bearishness that was invoked by news and nothing substantive. The bullish bias that originated on August 15, 2006 prevails.

 

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on July 26, 2007 for both the Dow and NASDAQ. They are down 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively since then.

 

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

 

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  are configuring robustly, but today’s bullish behavior suggests timidity with respect to solid bearish support. As long as this attribute remains mixed with vacillating bull/bear support, the cyclical bias remains in support of the bull even though near term bias favored the bear. Please read on.

 

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up 68.6% (annualized at 28.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 125.7-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding four ETF’s.  They are down an average of 1.2% since their sell signals an average of 3.1-weeks ago.

 

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

 

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up an average of 81.0% (annualized 34.2%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of  121.9-weeks ago.  Although there were no sell signals, there are two avoid signals. They are down 1.2% since their sell signals an average of 3.1-weeks ago.

 

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

 

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 24.0% (annualized at 22.2%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 55.7-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding nine ETF’s. They are down by an average of 1.2% since their sell signals an average of 2.3-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

 

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are five conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. Although weakened recently, the bias shift on August 15, 2006 remains in favor of the bull.

 

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Four of the 30-ETF’s are below their bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 5.5%.  This remains configured in support of the market’s non-bearish posture. There is no longer minimal support for sustainable bearish assertions. However, this attribute is not configured with support for sustainable bearish behavior at this time.

 

Eight ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves. That is down by fifteen from seven-trading days ago. This configuration supports the underlying bullish bias, although weakened. All thirty ETF average positions are 2.5% below their bullish red curves.

 

Although the average position is below bullish red, only one non-contrarian fund above bullish red will help retain bullish bias. If all non-contrarian funds fall below bullish red, the bear will be at a significant advantage to overpower the bull.

 

Bearish spurts occur from time to time. Until all non-contrarian funds fall below their bullish red curves, bearish expressions should be considered as mere spurts. From time to time, other attributes are required to confirm this prognosis.

 

At this time, configurations indicate bearish expressions in the immediate future will be mere spurt behavior. There is no indication of sustainable bearish behavior.

 

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

 

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. As stated the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since last August is solidly bullish. This repeated contact solidly supports the underlying bullish bias. Contact in sixty of the last eighty-one trading days remains supportive of bullish bias. Non-contact with the breakout lines the past four trading-days suggests the bull is resting.

 

The average distance from breakout contact is 6.9%. This remains in support of the bullish bias.

 

None of the ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. Last week’s contact with ETF #17-Real Estate was the first in over two years. Although ominous last week, it did lift above that perilous point on today. Keep an eye on this particular ETF as it may be a leading indicator to overall market behavior, depending on how it responds to bearish influences the past several days.

 

The average distance from the price and breakdown remains a healthy 21.9%. This configuration provides tremendous non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003. There have been several bearish “spurts” since then with no sustainability or dynamic support. The probability of immediate contact remains low and thus a non-bearish bias is maintained on a short-term basis, except for those funds with noted contact.

 

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.


One of the thirty ETF Force Vectors continue toward bullish domains. As stated seven trading days ago, Force Vectors are now decreasing, which suggests a pause in bullish expressions. The underlying bias remains bullish, however.

 

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

 

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

 

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. The signals are listed there. There was one put option buy signal after today’s close.

 

With Force Vectors and Vector Pressure moving south, consider bullish expressions as bullish spurts against a micro-bearish bias. As stated early last week, Force Vectors are moving robustly to the south favoring a bearish bias on a near term basis. Plummeting Force Vectors appear to be reversing the bearish cycle. If the impending cycle to the north does not cross into bullish domains, expect bearish dominance to resume. Although the theme continues with a bullish bias, there is no conflict. Long-term hold positions should be maintained while new money should remain in cash.

 

Fifteen ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. As stated the past few days, the current configurations remain in support the Quick-term bullish bias shift from August 15, 2006, although favoring increasing bearish spurt activity. As stated the past few days, several Quick-term and Short-term attributes have weakened in favor of bearish behavior. However, keep in mind, overall configurations favor bullish bias.

 

It is common for bull/bear battles when Vector Pressure is being threatened from its support of the prevailing bias.

 

As long as this attribute holds above fifteen within confines of other Quick-term attributes, bearish expressions are mere spurts, where there is no sustainability. If and when it falls below fifteen, other attributes will be evaluated and the bias assessment will be adjusted accordingly.

 

This paragraph is repeated from June 26, 2007 daily stock market report. Depth is a relative term. For those of you who bought several months ago, holding until bearish yellow is achieved, will be accomplished with ease. For those of you who bought in the past few weeks may not prefer to wait for the victor of the bear/bull battle that typically occurs at the bearish yellow curve.

 

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

 

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

 

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The shift from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15. The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models continue suggesting a bullish bias.

 

Do not write covered call options while Vector Pressure is positive (bullish), which is the current configuration. Increasing volatility suggests the market is not ripe for the risk here.

 

The Quick-term Bull remains in tact.

 

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is no longer avoiding QQQQ, which no longer supports holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.

 

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

 

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

 

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

 

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

 

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

07/30/07

 

 

 

July 27, 2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 07, Issue 18 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Nine of thirty; bullish bias remains, although weakening.

Quick-term Yellow Bears: Seven; non-bearish support continues, but being threatened.

Short-term/Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Countering sustainable bearish ambition.

Force Vectors: Shifting south, suggesting a pause in bullish behavior and increasing bearish threats.

Vector Pressure: Supportive of bullish bias.

Long-term Hold Positions: Solidly safe.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish

Overall Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakening.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Increasing volatility is favorable.

Volume: Configurations remain in support of underlying bullish bias.

 

Comments from April 20, 2007

Both the NASDAQ and NYSE Indexes passed above their upper trading range limit. That means a new trading range is being established and is not an indication of immediate bias.

 

Force Vectors and Vector Pressure maintained bullish bias during the Greenspan/China bearishness that originated in late February and lasted for a few days in early March. Viewing the Indicant Volume Indicator charts (link is below) is a testament about how one should not engage trading behavior based on contemporary news. Only two ETF sell signals were generated from the late February-early March bearishness that was invoked by news and nothing substantive. The bullish bias that originated on August 15, 2006 prevails.

 

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear yesterday for both the Dow and NASDAQ when configurations shifted in favor of the bear on the immediate horizon.

 

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

 

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  are configuring robustly. As stated last Wednesday, there is an increased probability in near-term bearish bias.  Even though the Dow is down over 500-points since then, the underlying configuration continues to support the cyclical bullish bias. Both of the previous two sentences continue to hold true. Those two truths will not last long.

 

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and one sell signal. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up 67.8% (annualized at 27.9%) since their respective buy signals an average of 125.3-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signal, the SQI is avoiding three ETF’s.  They are down 3.0% since their sell signals an average of 3.5-weeks ago.

 

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

 

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and one sell signal. Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up an average of 77.6% (annualized 32.9%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of  121.5-weeks ago.  In addition to the sell signal, there are two avoid signals. They are down 3.0% since their sell signals an average of 3.5-weeks ago.

 

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

 

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and three sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 21.9% (annualized at 20.4%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 55.3-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding six ETF’s. They are down by an average of 3.6% since their sell signals an average of 2.8-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

 

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are six conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. The bias shift on August 15, 2006 remains in favor of the bull.

 

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Seven of the 30-ETF’s are below their bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 3.9%.  This remains configured in support of the market’s non-bearish posture. There is no longer minimal support for sustainable bearish assertions. However, this attribute is not configured with support for sustainable bearish behavior.

 

Nine ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves. That is down by fourteen from six-trading days ago. This configuration supports the underlying bullish bias, although weakened. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.9% below their bullish red curves.

 

Bearish spurts occur from time to time. Until all non-contrarian funds fall below their bullish red curves, bearish expressions should be considered as mere spurts. From time to time, other attributes are required to confirm this prognosis.

 

At this time, configurations indicate bearish expressions in the immediate future will be mere spurt behavior. There is no indication of sustainable bearish behavior.

 

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

 

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. As stated the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since last August is solidly bullish. This repeated contact solidly supports the underlying bullish bias. Contact in sixty of the last eighty trading days remains supportive of bullish bias. Non-contact with the breakout lines the past three days suggests the bull is resting.

 

The average distance from breakout contact is 8.3%. This remains in support of the bullish bias.

 

One of the ETF’s is contacting its breakdown line. That is the first time this has configured since 2004. It is ETF #17-Real Estate. The average distance from the price and breakdown is 19.6%. This configuration provides tremendous non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003. There have been several bearish “spurts” since then with no sustainability or dynamic support. The probability of immediate contact remains low and thus a non-bearish bias is maintained on a short-term basis, except for those funds with noted contact.

 

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.


One of the thirty ETF Force Vectors continue toward bullish domains. As stated six trading days ago, Force Vectors are now decreasing, which suggests a pause in bullish expressions. The underlying bias remains bullish, however.

 

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

 

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

 

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. The signals are listed there. There were three put option buy signals after Friday’s close.

 

With Force Vectors and Vector Pressure moving south, consider bullish expressions as bullish spurts against a micro-bearish bias. As stated earlier this week, Force Vectors are moving robustly to the south favoring a bearish bias on a near term basis. The behavior on the re-bound will advise when this attribute expires. If Force Vectors move above the Indicant line into bullish domains, then bullish bias will again be dominant. If Force Vectors turn back to the south into bearish domains, put option opportunities will increase. Also, that configuration would support an increased probability of sustainability by the bear.

 

Seventeen ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. As stated the past few days, the current configurations remain in support the Quick-term bullish bias shift from August 15, 2006, although favoring increasing bearish spurt activity. As stated the past few days, several Quick-term and Short-term attributes have weakened in favor of bearish behavior. However, keep in mind, overall configurations favor bullish bias.

 

It is common for bull/bear battles when Vector Pressure is being threatened from its support of the prevailing bias.

 

As long as this attribute holds above fifteen within confines of other Quick-term attributes, bearish expressions are mere spurts, where there is no sustainability. If and when it falls below fifteen, other attributes will be evaluated and the bias assessment will be adjusted accordingly.

 

This paragraph is repeated from June 26, 2007 daily stock market report. Depth is a relative term. For those of you who bought several months ago, holding until bearish yellow is achieved, will be accomplished with ease. For those of you who bought in the past few weeks may not prefer to wait for the victor of the bear/bull battle that typically occurs at the bearish yellow curve.

 

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

 

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

 

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The shift from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15. The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models continue suggesting a bullish bias.

 

Do not write covered call options while Vector Pressure is positive (bullish), which is the current configuration. Increasing volatility suggests the market is not ripe for the risk here.

 

The Quick-term Bull remains in tact.

 

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is no longer avoiding QQQQ, which no longer supports holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.

 

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

 

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

 

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

 

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

 

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

07/27/07

 

 

 

 

 

July 26, 2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 07, Issue 17 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report 

 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Nine of thirty; bullish bias remains, although weakening.

Quick-term Yellow Bears: Four; non-bearish support continues, but being threatened.

Short-term/Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Countering sustainable bearish ambition.

Force Vectors: Shifting south, suggesting a pause in bullish behavior and increasing bearish threats.

Vector Pressure: Supportive of bullish bias.

Long-term Hold Positions: Solidly safe.