July Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Updates

Jul 31, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 7, Issue 22 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

Today's Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Disfiguring Force Vectors in bullish domains suggest a strong bull and a feeble bear. Vector Pressure remains in bullish domains. This configuration can linger for quite some time; possibly months.

As long as prices remain above bullish blue and blue continues rising, the bear will remain absent.

Configurations are correlating with political influences. The market has been going up, paralleling the president’s increasing unpopularity. This, coupled with the Blue Dog Democrats resisting socialism, reversed very high probabilities of a return to the bear market two weeks ago. Although the bull can linger for several more weeks without much pizzazz, risks of not broadly participating in a potential bull leg are too high.

The early warnings of the next bearish threat rests with the Near-term Bullish Blue Curve. As long as it moves north, there is nothing to fear. Even when it collapses, Force Vector position will be telling on the seriousness of any bearish threat. Right now, neither of those two attributes are near in support of the bear.

The Near-term Bull is 21-weeks old. The average Near-term life cycles approximate 10-14-weeks. This does not mean they are always followed by a reversal cycle. Extended inflections can occur for several days or even weeks ahead of a renewed Near-term bull or bear cycle. The bull is demonstrating dynamic responses to the bear’s influence. If the bear does not demonstrate equal or greater magnitude in responses, this Near-term Bull will delay its expiration. Bullishness last week appeared to be emotionally-based as the so-called improving fundamentals are not justification for the magnitude of the bull’s wrath. However, as usual, the market can move with sustainability against reasoned fundamentals. This may in fact turn out to be a Blue Dog Bull. Cap and Trade and Healthcare Reform, if stopped, will be bullish for the stock market. Tyranny by the majority, in this case, is the correct tyranny, when desiring bullish stock markets.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

The eleven existing bulls are up 12.5%, annualizing at 81.0%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 8.1-weeks ago.

The NTI is signaling bear for one major index. It is up 3.6% since the bear signal an average of 2.4-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 6.9%, annualizing at 49.1%, since their bull signals an average of 7.3-weeks ago.

The lone bear, VIX, is down 27.7% since its bear signal 15.1-weeks ago.

On-going attribute watch for major indices: Biases are dated at the time of observation. The next sentence advises of conditions and indicators each day, unless they are also dated.

-Near-term Directional Intensity Unanimity-Jul 30, 2009-Thu-Bullish unanimity exists. Bullishly mature Force Vectors are not inciting the bear to respond. This, at worse, is non-bearish.

QTI Red Bull Status-Jul 27, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven red bulls continue to discourage bear. Although configurations are not supportive of dynamic bullish behavior, they are equally preventing dynamic bearish behavior.

QTI Yellow Bear Status-Jul 23, 2009-Non-bearish bias. Eleven of eleven non-contrarian indices are above bearish yellow. This should anger the bear. The bear remains quiet and thus the non-bearish bias prevails.

-NTI Blue Bull Direction-Jul 22, 2009-Bullish bias. Twelve moving north; down from eleven 20-days ago. Contrarian VIX shifted bullishly last Tuesday, but not yet configured with strongly bullish attributes. Keep your eye on the NTI Blue Curve. As long as it does not collapse, the bull remains dominant.

-NTI Green Bear Direction – Jul 30, 2009-Non-bearish bias. Eleven moving north, up by eight from last Tuesday. A majority of non-contrarian indices are now moving north and thus non-bearish.

-STI Force Vector Position- Jul 30, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven in bullish domains; One in bearish domain (VIX). Force Vectors remain bullishly mature and inviting the bear to respond. July 24, 2009-Force Vectors remain in bullish domains, minimizing bearish threats.

-STI Force Vector Direction – Jul 30, 2009-Bullish bias; Only VIX moving south. Disfiguring Force Vectors in bullish domains supports bullish bias.

-Vector Pressure Position- Jul 23, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven in bullish domains; up from eight 20-days ago. A non-responsive bear is discerning with respect to bearish expectations. Although the major indices are at or near cyclical peaks, this bull is again being supported by Vector Pressure.

-Vector Pressure Direction- Jul 9, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven moving north; up by seven from last Wednesday. The majority are supporting bullish position and encouraging bullish direction. This no longer supports bearish ambition.

-Tangential Protection - None of the 11-major indices possess this attribute.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection - Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted below. See the below list for major indices and ETF’s, where reverse tangential detects future valuations.

Major Indices

>DJIA will be at or below 7976 at some future point.

>DJ Composites will be at or below 2630 at some future point.

>DJ Transports will be at or below 2830 at some future point.

>S&P500 will be at or below 835 at some future point.

>S&P100 will be at or below 394 at some future point.

>S&P400 will be at or below 500 at some future point.

>S&P600 will be at or below 250 at some future point.

>NYSE will be at or below 5429 at some future point.

ETF’s

>ETF#02-SPY will be at or below $82.35 at some future point.

>ETF#05-XLF will be at or below $9.50 at some future point.

>ETF#06-EWJ will be at or below $8.50 at some future point.

>ETF#07-DIA will be at or below $77.50 at some future point.

>ETF#08-EFA will be at or below $39.35 at some future point.

>ETF#09-XLK will be at or below $15.35 at some future point.

>ETF#15-IVV will be at or below $81.50 at some future point.

>ETF#16-IWO will be at or below $46.75 at some future point.

>ETF#18-MDY will be at or below $90.60 at some future point.

>ETF#19-XLB will be at or below $22.40 at some future point.

>ETF#22-IWF will be at or below $35.80 at some future point.

>ETF#23-IWD will be at or below $41.80 at some future point.

>ETF#24-IWN will be at or below $42.30 at some future point.

>ETF#25-DVY will be at or below $33.50 at some future point.

>ETF#26-IJR will be at or below $37.30 at some future point.

>ETF#29-XLY will be at or below $19.80 at some future point.

>ETF#30-XLI will be at or below $19.70 at some future point.

Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in the above projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds still favor later this year or early next year.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. There is one chart containing both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve.

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators have returned to a lethargic cycle. Reflecting illustrates the NYSE’s current bull cycle was not supported by volume. Its lethargic cycle is very mature, suggesting volume will increase in a few weeks. Stock market behavior during the anticipated rise in volume will assist obviations of directional intensity.

The NASDAQ’s current bull cycle, on the other hand, was supported with increased volume; at least half of the cycle was supported. This suggests there is more economic optimism for NASDAQ companies than the older NYSE companies. Such phenomenon suggests limited economic optimism, which typically leads to overall economic disappointment. In spite of that though, this configuration biases in favor of non-bearishness.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Jul 31, 2009-Fri-Same as yesterday. Jul 30, 2009-Thu-As long as Bullish Blue continues rising and Force Vectors do not penetrate bearish domains, sustainable bearish behavior cannot occur. On that basis, several bull/buy signals were generated today. This Near-term Bull can nickel and dime those expecting the bear into the poor house. Too many trends are now bullish on a Short-term basis. Once prices fall below bullish blue, then one should closely monitor Force Vector behavior. Jul 29, 2009-Wed-Do not be surprised at lazy, lateral behavior for the next several days. The bear is not expressing enough interest to counter-punch the bull and the bull is simply too tired to do much more for the time being. Jul 28, 2009-Tue-Force Vectors moved a bit more aggressively to the south, supporting a non-bullishness for a few more days. Jul 27, 2009-Mon-Force Vectors are not rigid. That is ominous to bearish ambition. If wavering motion continues, this NTI bull will persist. Jul 24, 2009-Fri-Bullishly mature Force Vectors are the only attribute preventing unanimous bull signals for the major indices. They have started to shift south. If the market does not parallel southerly moving Force Vectors, this Near-term Bull will linger for several more days/weeks. Last Thursday’s bullish behavior, coupled with mildly southerly moving Force Vectors does not bode well for bearish ambition.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated one-buy signal and no sell signals.

In addition to the buy signal, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 9.0%, annualizing at 77.3% since their buy signals an average of 6.0-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding two-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 3.3% since their sell signals an average of 3.2-weeks ago. Non-rigid Force Vectors in bullish domains after bullish maturity is not bearish.

The Quick-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up an average of 11.8% since their buy signals an average of 9.9-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 62.0%. Two ETF’s are down by an average of 16.8% since their sell signals an average of 11.7-weeks ago.

Quick-term Red Bulls significantly reduce the threat of dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. As long as there are Quick-term Red Bulls, one does not have to worry about bearish dominance. Breadth protection improved from only 9-red bulls 20-days ago to 28-red bulls today. This is a significant non-bearish configuration with respect to disallowing dynamic behavior on the immediate horizon. Declining Force Vectors facilitated bearish expressions for the most part this week, but recent bullishness suggests the bull will continue dominance. The Force Vectors are not configuring in their normal structure, which is definitely non-bearish.

Vector Pressure in bullish domains is also a bear depressant. There are now 24-ETF’s with this bullish and non-bearish configuration for a gain of four this week. The bearish threat has expired. Bullish behavior in ten of the last 14-trading days reversed the bearish threat with 29 moving north. That is up from only three 12-days ago. The bear was insulted by the bull and did not respond. That suggests the bull remains too strong for the bear to battle.

Force Vectors are bullishly mature. Most are disfiguring, which suggests market stability with a bullish bias since they are directionally lost in bullish domains. Defying a high probability of non-bullish to bearish behavior on the immediate horizon is a testament of the strength of this bull. The probabilities of bearish aggression shifted to late August or early September when Congress returns.

The NTI Blue Curve is rising again and with some gusto. Bullishly mature Force Vectors delayed new buy signals and new bull signals. The bullishly mature Vector Pressure suggests the market is at or near a cyclical peak, but also configured in support of bearish passivity.

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on Jul 23, 2009. The primary reason for the sell signal is to clearly identify the next buy signal, which will coincide with the next QQQQ sell signal. Keep in mind, though, QID is configured for a robust bullish cycle upon the expiration of QQQQ’s bullish configuration. It is down 0.6% since that sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on March 26, 2009. It is down 40.9% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $39.05 and still falling.

Force Vector is at a minimum, but too low to assist a bullish charge for this ETF.

ETF#03-Natural Resources - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on June 24, 2009. It is up 7.2% since both sell signals. It’s configuration is shifting. If Blue does not collapse early next week, then a buy signal may unfold.

Vector Pressure had been shifting south, which is not supportive of bullish behavior. However, it is attempting to behave like the other ETF’s with a shift to the north.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 15.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 24.4%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $85.48 and rising. Although under Near-term duress, this ETF remains bullish from a long-term perspective. The Near-term duress is gaining intensity. Deflation may evolve as more of a concern than inflation on the short-term horizon. Deflationary views would not be bullish for gold. If Cap and Trade or Healthcare reform pass, you will be glad for holding gold. It should enjoy a good bounce if Congress sounds like the Kremlin in early September.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 4.0% since then, annualizing at 14.9%. Fundamentally, it is one of the few ETF’s that could continue to increase in price in the face of an overall bearish stock market. Declining Vector Pressure is discerning, though. It lost tangential protection this past week, as green disrupted the tangential relationship. It is on its own, but remains with a bullish configuration.

Gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs. Keep in mind, commodities, including Gold, are under Near-term bearish threat.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal on June 22, 2009 from the Near-term Indicant. It is up 2.4% since that buy signal. Force Vector interacted with Vector Pressure. It will receive a quick sell signal if it drops below Vector Pressure. It is struggling to climb back above QTI bearish yellow curve.

This fund crossed above QTI-Yellow on July 8, 2009 and thus received a Quick-term buy signal. It is down 1.8% since then.

Jul 31, 2009-Fri-Same as yesterday.

Jul 30, 2009-Thu- If TLT falls below Green and Force Vectors fall back into bearish domains, sell and avoid signals will unfold.

Jul 29, 2009-Wed-Force Vector continued moving south today. The T-Bill auction did not go well, elevating interest rates above expectation, which should strengthen the dollar and thus supports bullishness for this fund.

Jul 28, 2009-Tue-Its Force Vector shifted south today, introducing some concern regarding the viability of the hold signal. This fund is usually contrarian and thus one reason for continuing with hold signal due to the overall non-bullishness of the stock market.

Jul 27, 2009-Mon-This ETF is a bit perplexing. It fell below NTI bearish green curve today. However, bearish green is rising. It is positioned to move with some gusto in either direction over the next few days. If you are holding, it is recommended to set stop loss at 8% below buy price. The Treasury auction this week can insight dynamic movements. Rising Force Vectors should at least interact with Vector Pressure in the next day or two. If Vector Pressure acts as a lid, this fund will most likely receive NTI and QTI sell signals. It is teetering on the edge of very nervous behavior.

Major ETF Events

Jul 31, 2009-Fri-Bullish attributes strengthened today.

Jul 30, 2009-Thu-Strong intraday bullishness, coupled with disfiguring Force Vectors in bullish domains is too strongly non-bearish. This does not mean the bull will continue, but past similar configurations suggest a very low probability of any significant bearish threat. High probabilities of immediate bearish threats have now been delayed to late August or early September. Risks of avoiding ETF’s is too high. The Blue Dog Bull may actually happen and if it does, you will want to be holding.

Jul 29, 2009-Wed-As expected the market continued expressing passivity on both fronts; bull and bear. Do not be surprised at continued lateral behavior on the next several days. Any strong bullish or bearish day will be offset by mirror imaging behavior.

Jul 28, 2009-Tue-Expected non-bullishness occurred today. Although bullishly mature Force Vectors facilitate bearishness, high Vector Pressure resists that and thus the prognosis of non-bullishness as opposed to solid bearishness.

Jul 27, 2009-Mon-The market was flat to mildly bullish today. Force Vectors are configuring with unnatural geometry, which is a bit ominous to bearish ambition and supportive of continued bullishness. A minor pullback or lateral behavior would not be surprising this week. Interaction with NTI bullish blue curve will enhance obviations of directional intensity. Arguing with a rising NTI bullish blue curve is inappropriate when prices are above QTI Red.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Happy Investing,

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

07/31/09

Jul 30, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 7, Issue 21 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

Today's Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Disfiguring Force Vectors in bullish domains suggest a strong bull and a feeble bear. Vector Pressure remains in bullish domains. This configuration can linger for quite some time; possibly months.

As long as prices remain above bullish blue and blue continues rising, the bear will remain absent.

The Near-term Bull is 20-weeks old. The average Near-term life cycles approximate 10-14-weeks. This does not mean they are always followed by a reversal cycle. Extended inflections can occur for several days or even weeks ahead of a renewed Near-term bull or bear cycle. The bull is demonstrating dynamic responses to the bear’s influence. If the bear does not demonstrate equal or greater magnitude in responses, this Near-term Bull will delay its expiration. Bullishness last week appeared to be emotionally-based as the so-called improving fundamentals are not justification for the magnitude of the bull’s wrath. However, as usual, the market can move with sustainability against reasoned fundamentals. This may in fact turn out to be a Blue Dog Bull.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled six new bulls and no new bears.

The five existing bulls are up 27.4%, annualizing at 82.4%, since the NTI signaled bull 17.3-weeks ago.

The NTI is signaling bear for one major index. It is up by an average of 1.3% since the bear signal an average of 2.3-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled five new bulls and no new bears.

In addition to the new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for six major indices. They are up 12.6%, annualizing at 50.1%, since their bull signals an average of 13.0-weeks ago.

The lone bear, VIX, is down 29.3% since its bear signal 15.0-weeks ago.

On-going attribute watch for major indices: Biases are dated at the time of observation. The next sentence advises of conditions and indicators each day, unless they are also dated.

-Near-term Directional Intensity Unanimity-Jul 30, 2009-Thu-Bullish unanimity now exists. Bullishly mature Force Vectors are not inciting the bear to respond. This, at worse, is non-bearish.

-NTI Green Bear Direction – Jul 30, 2009-Non-bearish bias. Six moving north, up by three from last Tuesday. A majority of non-contrarian indices are now moving north and thus non-bearish.

-STI Force Vector Direction – Jul 30, 2009-Bullish bias; Six moving south, but configurations are not rigid. This configuration suggests the bear is snoozing. If Force Vectors decline without corresponding market bearishness, this Near-term Bull could linger for several more weeks. July 23, 2009-If Force Vectors start moving laterally or even passively to the south, the conclusion of this Near-term Bull is nowhere in sight.

-Vector Pressure Direction- Jul 9, 2009-Bullish bias. Six moving north; up by two from yesterday. The majority are supporting bullish position and encouraging bullish direction. This no longer supports bearish ambition.