Jul 31, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 07, Issue 05 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Extremism

Extremes can be thought of as the endpoints along any numeric plane. Most learn this in elementary school by drawing a one-dimensional line on a sheet of paper. One endpoint is where the line begins and the other endpoint is where the line ends. Those two endpoints are the extremes along that plane. This concept is not limited to a single dimension. Extreme points can be defined in the realm multi-dimensionality. Drawing them, though, is not possible.

The bell shaped curve is another example. It has the same one-dimensional line along its X-axis. It has a bell shape curve hovering above the x-axis. The data in the bell shape curve represents the underlying data of interest. Some curves are not shaped like a bell. They can be skewed to one side or the other with each side’s endpoint representing the extremes of the data under study.

If the underlying data is normally distributed, the bell shape is perfectly symmetrical to both sides extending from its peak. Using the infamous intelligence quotient example, 66.7% of the world’s populace has an average IQ. On one extreme is the super-genius, while the other extreme is one who has the intelligence of a vegetable.

Although most of you can envision three dimensions, most phenomena worthy of study are multi-dimensional. Just a handful of people know how to solve multi-dimensional problems. None of them are in Washington DC except for a few consultants who advise on optimization models, such as recommended crop planting and projected yields from those plantings. There are about 87-dimensions used in agricultural modeling, including some probabilistic variables, such as the weather.

The economy has multi-dimensional constraints. So far, all the dimensions have not been defined. It would be difficult to find a way to track and record most of the economic dimensions. For example, economists cannot know knowing when an entrepreneur awakes in the morning to pursue his or her tasks. However, that unknown variable is highly influential on economic activity. If all entrepreneurs slept until noon and partied all night, economic activity would worsen. Economists do not have this data. That is why their forecast are known to be inaccurate most of the time. As the old saying goes, success breeds failure.

Extremes can be abstract or physical. Before defining extremes, one must first define average or the norm. So, what is normal?

Most of you live in neighborhoods. If you take a walk in your neighborhood and remain calm during that walk, you can conclude all is normal. However, if one of your neighbors is setting on top of a telephone pole shooting rocks at you with a slingshot, you would consider that abnormal. Societal norms would suggest that neighbor of yours is with brain dysfunction.

Normalcy could be defined when there is little variation in emotional responses to any environmental stimulus. For example, if your neighborhood was used to the sling-shot shooter, your emotional response to that stimulus would not vary that much as you meandered placidly through your neighborhood or dodged rocks from the slingshot shooter.

If you were born, raised, and currently living in a tribe of cannibals, your norms would be different from that in your existing neighborhood. Even the slingshot shooter could be in trouble. Going to sleep at night or taking an afternoon nap would not be without risks in the cannibal neighborhood. So, in this world, there are least three norms for neighborhoods; one without the sling-shot shooter, one with the sling shot shooter, and a tribe of cannibals. Of course, there are thousands of other norms.

With that, normalcy, for the most part is what swirls around in any three-pound brain. Normalcy to one may be extreme to another. Until normalcy is scientifically defined with logical data and reliable projections, claims of normalcy is merely an opinion opined from a mere three-pound brain. Who cares about the opinion from others? Insanity could be the underlying source of that opinion and thus has merits of suspicion.

Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, recently stated the congressional members backed by the Tea Party are extremists. If one group of people claim another group of people are extremists, then the accusatory group could equally be considered the same by the accused. After all, they are just opinions. In this case, there is significant scientific evidence that Harry Reid is the extremist in this dialog.

73% of federal income tax receipts are paid by the top 10% of wage earners, while 47% of households pay no income tax. The bottom 40% of households not only do not pay income tax, they are paid by the federal government. This is because tax credits, offered to the lower wage groups, exceed their tax liability. Rather than truncating the resulting value to zero, the federal government sends them money.

The top 10% of households paying 73% of all federal income tax is fewer votes than the bottom 40% who get paid by the federal government for being poor. In other words, politicians are rewarding the poor in return for votes. There are more poor than rich. Harry Reid has been in political power for a long time. The top 10% of households paying 73% of all federal income tax is one extreme. The bottom 40% being paid by the federal government for being poor is the other extreme. Harry Reid is for this system. That is being an extremist.

If it is true that all men are created equally, then it is mathematically impossible to conclude that all should pay the same amount of income tax; not a percentage, but the exact same dollar amount. That is not extreme because there are no extreme endpoints; all pay the same.

If the bell shaped curve were legislated, then the bottom household income folks would pay the exact same tax as the very top wage earners. The folks in the middle forty to sixty percentile of earned income would pay about 66.7% of all federal taxes. In essence, the extremely high-income earners would be rewarded, equally, to those on the bottom.

Those in the middle, paying most of the tax would work much harder to get out of the middle group. With very limited regulatory constraints, the economy would expand much faster and to the point where those on the bottom would live like contemporary millionaires. Politicians do not want this. That is because they would be irrelevant in such a society. Political relevance is the biggest threat to the economy. Politicians need huge masses of poor people to support their egomaniacal needs. As long as that model flourishes, you are at risk.

Politicians are basting in the spotlight on the debt ceiling debate. Many of them are making foolish comments. The bottom 40% of tax beneficiaries, who are paid by the federal government for being poor, do not know their elected leaders are foolish. For those few 40% who pay attention, rest assured they will vote for the one who says the word, give, the most. Fortunately, many among that 40% group do not pay attention. Therein lies the hope for a continuation of the U.S. Republic.

Politicians continue claiming the stock market is dependent upon them. Many do not yet know they are destructive to the stock market bull. Once they pass legislation dealing with the debt ceiling and take their congressional recess, the stock market bull will most likely resume; that is, of course, assuming a U.S. default remains absent and the GDP discontinues its lackluster performance. Barack Obama and his economic advisors do not understand that rewarding the poor for being poor is not going to nudge unemployment higher. There is a sound reason why the poor are poor. They do not start businesses. Most are simply lazy and are being paid to be that way by their elected leaders.

So far, the stock market is behaving normally. It has been bearish as political chatter heightened this past week. Political foolishness is heard by investors. It can be scary and with that at the market price sell orders increase. When that happens, prices fall as the floor traders lower them to buy for themselves. Unfortunately, for them, sometimes the prices keep on falling. Unfortunately, for the free markets, taxpayers cover those losses. Legislation should be introduced, outlawing any governmental interference in the free markets.

Force Vectors dipped into bearish domains this past week. Yes, Congress is in session, which correlates very well with stock market bearishness. Once Congress goes on recess, the bull should return, based on current and scientifically based stock market configurations.

On the contrary, contemporary political resistance to the former ease in debt-ceiling elevations is bullish; very bullish indeed. If the movement continues and with gusto, funds flow to inefficiencies, ineffectiveness, and corruption to Washington D.C. will slow. More funds will be retained in the hands of efficiency, effectiveness, and without corruption; that is, more of your money is in your hands. Some, such as Harry Reid, would call that extreme.

Politicians, such as Harry Reid, would consider the empty palms of politicians and government bureaucrats extreme. So what and who cares? Well, the stock market’s bull would care and stampede to the north is those greasy palms had very little access to money. Any reduction in inefficiency, ineffectiveness, and corruption is always delightful to the stock market bull. Your tweets to your congressional representative should say, “hurry up and vote and take a long vacation.” You would be doing the stock market bull a big favor.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

NAS100’s biggest loser was NAS#07-BMC. It endured a price drop of 17.5%. It is up 28.9% since the MTI buy signal on Mar 27, 2009. As you can see, this stock has a steady bullish, but somewhat passive, trend. The NAS100 biggest gainer was a paltry 5.5%. It was NAS#69-EXPE. It is up 33.9% since the MTI buy signal last April. This stock has been somewhat volatile the past few years.

ISTK#81-SANM, which has in a long-term bearish trend, enjoyed a 19.1% price jump last week. This stock performed very well during the 2003 bull leg, but since then has been consistently disappointing. It is up 6.0% since the MTI sell signal last May. ISTK#80-AMCC lost 27.0% of its value last week. As you can see, it has also been enduring a long-term bearish trend. It is down 26.3% since the MTI sell signal a few weeks ago.

The DJIA had no double-digit gainers or losers. Actually, all 30-stocks were down last week.

The Dow Utilities also did not have any double-digit gainers last week. Of the fifteen stocks there was one that gained.

Mutual Funds equally did not endure any double-digit price changes. However, one deserves mention here. It is MF#37-FSDCX. It was down 7.7% last week. It is up 33.8% since the MTI buy signal in July 2009. It has enjoyed a mild bullish trend since its crash in the 2000-2002 bear market. Of concern is its Force Vector. Although it is climbing, it is mature and in bearish domains. Its Pressure is falling and appears headed for bearish domains.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and eight sell signals.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 282 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 55.2%. That annualizes to 39.4%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 282-stocks and funds for an average of 72.9-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 45-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 32.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 83.4-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Jul 30, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 136-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 63.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 49.8% (annualized at 40.8%). There were 179-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 19.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 56.2-weeks earlier one year ago. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 40-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Jul 31, 2009. They were up by an average of 87.5%, annualized at 91.9%, since their respective buy signals an average of 49.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 191-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 36.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 64.0-weeks earlier. There were 85-buy signals adding to the 15-buy signals the week before. There was one sell signal on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued losing dominance at this time in 2009 along the mid-term cycle.

There were 82-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jul 25, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 185.3-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 241.3% (annualized at 67.7%). There were 254-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 13.0% from their respective sell signals an average of 22.3-weeks earlier. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2008 not adding to the 382-sell signals in the prior 37-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008 and through the summer months. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the avoided stocks from late 2007 and early 2008 Mid-term Indicant sell signals remained with avoid signals during that “bullish spurt.” There were nine buy signals on this weekend in 2008 as a bullish mini-spurt manifested on light summertime volume.

On Jul 27, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 283-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 140.1% (annualized at 62.2%) since their buy signals an average of 117.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 33-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 18.9% since their sell signals an average of 31.7-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and 26-sell signals on this weekend in 2007. The Mid-term bull cycle was beginning to struggle at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies.

Five years ago, on Jul 28, 2006, there were 171-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 151.8% (annualized at 66.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of 119.0-weeks earlier. There were 168-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 4.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 15.0-weeks earlier. There were five buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid for the most part in 2006.

On Jul 29, 2005, there were 224-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 105.0%, annualizing at 61.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 89.1-weeks earlier. There were 91-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 16.5% since their sell signals an average of 18.9-weeks earlier. There were five buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 165-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jul 30, 2004. They were up by an average of 82.9%, annualizing at 68.3%, since their buy signals 63.2-weeks earlier. The 129-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 13.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 21.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2004 in addition to 159-sell signals in the prior 14-weeks. The meandering bear market was well underway at this time of year in 2004.

On Aug 1, 2003, there were 260-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 44.8% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 27.1-weeks earlier. That annualized at 85.9%. There were only 27-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 23.3% since their sell signals an average of 28.0-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There was one buy signal in addition to 222-buy signals in the prior 19-weeks. There were eight sell signals on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was 22-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Aug 2, 2002, there were only 21-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 63.0% since their buy signals an average of 50.6-weeks earlier. 241-stocks and funds were being avoiding since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 9.3-weeks earlier. There were 30-buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2002 in addition to the 152-sell signals in the prior seven weeks. The 2000-2002 stock market bear remained in full force at this time in 2002.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Most short-term attributes continue supporting the stock market bull along the near-term cycle. The Quick-term bullish cycle remains in tact. The Mid-term bullish cycle is under a mild threat, while remaining in tact. Force is moving south from shallow bullish domains. Prices remain above mid-term green curves. Sustainable bearish ambition cannot manifest until prices fall below the mid-term green curves. Political hackling is adding to bullish themes.

The mid-term election year of 2010 behaved classically pivoting in support of the normally bullish pre-election year (2011). This behavior correlated well with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemating. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish. Political hate mongering is favorable to the stock market bull and that is mounting as we approach the election year in 2012. That suggests the stock market bull will carry forward through 2012, which is consistent with historical norms.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 66.7% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 147.4% and the S&P500 is up 66.4% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 152.0% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations, while the short-term indicators suggest differently at this time. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011 in spite of recent bearishness and souring economic news. However, that can change, as Washington DC stupidity is far more reaching than historical standards suggest.

The NASDAQ is down 45.4% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 15.4% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 3.6% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish for the last eleven years.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak. Look at the resumes of intellectual elites who argue against these points. You will detect they are pure economic leeches arguing on behalf of such regulations, which is a source of their livelihoods. None has ever produced anything of value.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 17.9% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 19.9%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. Interestingly, the NASDAQ was explosively bullish on this week in 2001 in addition to the prior two weeks.

The NASDAQ was down by 31.5% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 29.6%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 6.1% and finishing up for that year by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was up 0.4% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was down by 5.0% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 6.1% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 12.5% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 24.8% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was down 0.8% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 14.3% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 3.6% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 17.4% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak.

Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 five weeks ago. That was the second time this year such accomplishment has been enjoyed.

The NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is again above those levels by 5.5% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400-MidCaps is another major index tracked by the Indicant that remains above its pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 1.9% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index was up by 1.7% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007 last weekend, but fell below by 3.4% this past weekend. The NASDAQ jumped above its Oct 31, 2007 peak on Apr 29, 2011, but expressed discomfort in doing so. As earlier stated it is down 3.6% since that 2007 peak level.

The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 20.6% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks from 2007 and 2000. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow30, Dow Composites and the S&P500 remain joined with the weak S&P100 Index. Those dilettante infested companies may participate more strongly with the stock market bull in spite of that infestation. Until the Dow crosses above its pre-crash peak, the Dow Theory Forecast remains bearish. It is down 14.3% from its peak on Oct 9, 2007.

Most major last cyclical bottoms occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 85.5% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 117.3% and the S&P500 is up 91.0% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 136.6% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Of course, such bearishness will eventually occur, but the Mid-term Indicant finds limited evidence of that on the immediate horizon.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. It takes awhile for the newly elected to follow their paths of corruption and learn the ease of spending other people’s money. The stock market bull takes advantage during such phenomena. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull at this time. A potential of defaults by Greece and others, promoting and catering to laziness, add to threats to the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets both free and controlled are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As promised by Bernanke in late 2008, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. After three consecutive weeks of zero yields, the three month yielded 0.1% the week before last and up to 0.5% this past week. It is starting to increase.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 27-weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull, but still troubled. As stated the past several weeks, it is hovering without direction. That is interesting for a currency that may not exist in a few years.

The Canadian dollar and the Japanese Yen remain strong and continue strengthening.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. Its recent bullish behavior is indeed impressive. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 is  challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains in tact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild bearish bias. It became a yellow bear four weeks ago, but bounced north off yellow, like all good bulls do.

Commodity prices continue falling from their recent record highs due to souring economic forecast. Some are no longer Red Bulls. Their potential contribution to inflationary pressures remains absent. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are currently not Red Bulls.  

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures continues waffling, but remaining above the bullish Red Curve, but getting close to contact.

Commodity prices, overall, were bearish in ten of the last 13-weeks. Souring economic forecasts continue dampening commodities bullish cycle. Current configurations are no longer expecting a bullish surge.

Mortgage rates are moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. They continue meandering in the zone of neutrality with bearish yellow being somewhat gravitational to their behavior.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable. That should change in the next few months, depending on economic activity. High unemployment will continue to contribute to non-inflationary tendencies.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and non-threatening toward inflation or deflation.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 14.8%, annualizing at 17.0% since then. As stated 13-weeks ago, the Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received an MTI buy signal on Jul 22, 2011. It is down 4.9% since that buy signal, even though gold prices were up significantly last week. Vanguard Gold continues to outperform Fidelity. It would be better to move to Vanguard the next time you see a buy signal for Vanguard Gold.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 29.8%, annualized at 34.1% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 56.2%, annualized at 64.3%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 32.1% since then, annualizing at 39.4%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 43.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 50.1%.

The Quick-term signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 42.1% since then, annualizing at 47.8%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 1, 2011. It is up 0.5% since then, annualizing at 6.6%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 96.3% since that buy signal, annualizing at 36.1%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy Jul 6, 2011. It is up 5.4% since then, annualizing at 91.7%.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The ten major indices are up by an average of 25.5% since their bull signals an average of 64.5-weeks ago. That annualizes at 20.6%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $31,847,313. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,847,443 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $152,722. That beats buy and hold’s $126,852 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $235768. That beats buy and hold’s $95,575 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 77.5% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund. The Short-term Indicant is avoiding QID, adding little hope for a Mid-term bullish cycle for MF#22.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 319.5% (annualized at 16.1%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,030-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Bearish attributes are increasing in numbers along the near-term cycle. There were more bear/sell signals this Friday, following several throughout the course of the week. The economy is flat lining. We have stagflation, which has been summarized in the weekly report for several months.

There are no QTI Red Bulls among the major indices, weakening the bull’s counterattack capacity to the stock market bear.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Short-term Market Summary

Force is now populating bearish domains. Pressure is drifting in a bearish direction. Indices are falling below NTI Green. However, bearish unanimity among the major indices. The NAS and NAS100 are still strong.

Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and two new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for six major non-contrarian indices and contrarian VIX. Combined, they are up by an average of 1.5% since their bull signals an average of 3.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 20.4%.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bull for contrarian VIX this past Wednesday.

The Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for all major non-contrarian indices for an average and contrarian VIX for an average of 39.2-weeks. They are up by an average of 15.7% since their bull signals, annualizing at 20.9%.

The Dow30 and Dow Composites fell below NTI Green today with declining Force. They received Near-term bear signals today, as a result of that.

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. It fell back into low activity a few weeks later. Normalcy with respect to summertime’s depressed volume is now completely configured. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains but approaching high interest.

Jul 29-Fri-Volume was average on mild bearishness is basically non-event.

Jul 28-Thu-Average volume on mixed behavior is holding cards close to the stock market chest. Nothing can be interpreted here.

Jul 27-Wed-Aggressive volume on bearish aggression is incentive for additional bearish aggression.

Jul 26-Tue-Again low summertime volume on mild bearishness offers little potential for drama.

Jul 25-Mon-Contrary to headlines, low volume on mild bearishness does not suggest debt ceiling related sell-offs. Just another hot summer day with most at the beach.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated two buy signals and four sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 18-ETF’s. They are down 0.3% since their buy signals an average of 3.9-weeks ago.

The NTI is avoiding eight ETF’s. They are down by an average of 0.4% since their sell signals an average of 0.3-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated one buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 21.9% since their buy signals an average of 46.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 24.3%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down by an average of 11.9% since the QTI sell signal an average of 10.6-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 1, 2011.  It is up 0.5% since that buy signal, annualizing at 6.6%. Since Pressure is in bullish domains, consider setting stop loss to average of NTI Blue (77.85) and Green until such time Green (73.72) crosses above buy price (76.06). As you can see, NTI Blue continues to increase. NTI Green increased for the first time in this cycle on Mon-Jul 18. Unfortunately, Force fell below Pressure on Friday. It also penetrated bearish domains. The next sell signal is when price falls below NTI Green or falls below buy price, depending on Force Vector behavior. As you can see, it is having difficulty crossing above prior peak price.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 42.1%, annualizing at 47.8% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until interacting with QTI Yellow.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 96.3% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 36.1%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $136.40 and still rising. Relaxation is in order since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $158.29.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 8, 2011, as Force penetrated bullish domains. It is up 5.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 91.7%.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal today from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant models. Force crossed into bullish domains and above positive Pressure.

ETF#31-QID received a buy signal on Friday by the Near-term Indicant. Again attributes shifted bullishly in spite of QQQQ’s continuing hold signal. Force climbed into bullish domains and thus a buy signal was triggered even though there is no sell signal for QQQ (or QLD).

The Quick-term signaled sell on Apr 1, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. It is down 19.5% since that sell signal. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy this past Thursday. Force elevated above Pressure and into bullish domains today.

The VIX was up considerably (>6.0%) this Friday. Yet the VXX was down. This fund will be removed from Indicant daily tracking in the next few days.

Major ETF Events

Jul 29-Fri-Bearish attributes continue strengthening. Consequently, there were more sell/bear signals. The economy is flat lining.

Jul 28-Thu-Bearish attributes are strengthening along the near-term cycle and bullish attributes are equally strengthening for contrarian ETF’s.

Jul 27-Wed-Strong volume coupled to strong bearishness is a significant challenge to short-term bull. The Dow Transports and S&P600 received Near-term Bear signals today. Their Force Vectors fell into bearish domains from shallow bullish domains. That is a bearish configuration.

Jul 26-Tue-VIX, VXX, and QID Force Vectors shifted north today.

Jul 25-Mon-There were none.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Jul 29, 2011. Vector Pressure remains in bullish domains, offering resistance to bearish ambition along the short-term cycle. However, contrarian Force Vectors shifted north this past Tuesday and accelerated for the remainder of this past week, offering potential for additional bearish shenanigans.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market endured bearish convergence last week, following bullish convergence last week and in four of the last five weeks. The NASDAQ and smaller cap stocks are again interacting with their 2007-precrash highs. It will be interesting to see if they can depart from these recent areas of bullish resistance. So far, this resistance continues prevailing.

Indicant Conclusion

The bull acquiesced to bearish ambition this past week even with heightened political bickering on the debt ceiling. This bearish behavior correlates with major indices having difficulties topping prior cyclical and secular peaks. Strategically, though investing in capital markets with U.S. defaults can inspire long-term bearish influences. The capital markets are always aroused at noisy finger-pointing by politicians. The bull gains significant confidence when politicians are in disagreement. Therefore, one should interpret short-term bearishness as a mere bearish spurt. However, if interest rates skyrocket, you would want to avoid the capital markets. Defaults will bring higher interest rates.

The stock market has been struggling the past several weeks eclipsing 2007 peak prices. It will be interesting to see if the bull can gain enough must to pass these recent points of resistance to its growth. This resistance continues to persist.

As stated the past 96-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle other than short-term attributes and this week’s Mid-term Indicant bear signal for the S&P100, which is now supporting bearish behavior.

Inflationary threats continue. The constituents keep changing. If the same constituents from the early 70’s were used, inflation would be at double-digit levels. Stagflation remains as an accurate descriptor of the current economy. Economic data continues offering evidence of souring activity. However, congressional and presidential budgetary failures this past week at raising the debt limit was profoundly bullish.

The stock market continues enduring difficulties manifesting breakout configurations, whereby prior cyclical peaks are offering resistance. The next few weeks will indeed be interesting.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

07/31/2011

Jul 24, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 07, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Political Stalemate Continues Correlation with Stock Market Bull

Most confuse correlation and causation. For example, pundits commonly claim the 1990’s robust economy was caused by Bill Clinton’s administration. It does correlate, but certainly not causative. Politicians are never causative to economic well being. Since those pundits have been allowed to make that claim with no one visibly laughing at their lunacy for the past ten years, listeners must believe those pundits. Politician’s only economic contribution is negative.

Here’s proof: Light bulb created by Thomas Edison. Henry Ford’s automobile enjoyed by most. Generators, X-ray apparatus, electric motors, alternating current, and radio developed by Nicola Tesla. None of those people was politicians. None gave speeches about how they were going to give you something. All they did was work hard and promote their products and services. Your ancestors eagerly purchased them and with much delight.

Your air conditioner needs an electric motor (Tesla). The alternating current allows for a steady and reliable flow of electric current to your homes and appliances (Tesla). It contributes to opening your garage door without fail so you can drive away to exciting places in your automobile (Tesla, Ford, and Harvey Firestone). While driving you listen to the radio (Tesla and not Marconi). You come home at night and in less than a second, you can have light (Edison). You enjoy in your daily living from products created by capitalists. Not one product that you enjoy was developed by a politician. Not one meaningful job was ever created by a politician. There is one exception. Ben Franklin developed the lightening rod, which has probably saved your life a couple of times.

However, Mr. Franklin and his contemporaries were part-timers in the political ranks. They understood there are more important things to do with one’s time than figure out ways to disperse other people’s money for votes. A full time politician’s life is centered on one and only one thing; getting votes. To ensure their victory, they must give. However, they have nothing to give, so they must first take. They are not the fruit of economic robustness. They are the anti-fruit.

The core of economics is based in business, which is really simple. Business succeeds when a customer willingly purchases services or products from a supplier. The exchange for goods and services is done openly and with absolute honesty. There is no coercion. With that, politicians have absolutely nothing positive to contribute to the economy.

But politicians keep talking about it. However, when one group of politicians bickers at another group of politicians, the stock market bull is aroused. The bull’s arousal is based on the fact that economic damage will be minimized when politicians are not on the same page. The stock market bull displayed its delight in three of the past four weeks during the debt ceiling discussions. The stock market bull charged ahead every time one politician stormed out of a meeting with another politician the past few weeks. It does not matter who the politicians are. None are substantive to economic well being.

The stock market bear is aroused when all politicians are “in agreement.” For example, in late 2008, politicians agreed to bail out inefficient corporations and ineffective institutions. There is no proof that was necessary. However, there is proof the stock market tanked and the economy quickly followed. Bickering in political circles is indeed bullish. Politicians in agreement on any subject result in stock market bearishness. History has repeatedly proven that. It will continue to do so. The antithesis to the capital markets are politicians, regardless of country and form of government.

Pundits claim President Obama must create 250,000-jobs a month between now and the presidential election in November 2012 before being able to serve a second term. Businesses will hire or fire based on what is best for the business. The fortunes of politicians are irrelevant to business. President Obama has nothing to do with the hiring function. If he gets lucky and businesses start hiring again at that phenomenal rate, rest assured biased pundits will say, “Obama created millions of jobs.” In fact, he will not create one economically viable job during his presidency. No president, senator, or representative since the beginning has ever created one economically viable job while doing political work.

As stated many times in this report, the only positive economic contribution any politician can undertake is undo damage by their predecessors. Ronald Reagan, equally, did not create one job. Bill Gates at Microsoft and other companies created all those programmers, many who became millionaires closely following the Reagan era. Reagan did not even know how to write code. However, Reagan removed power from Washington D.C. displacing FDR’s damage. The stock market bull surged ahead with gusto. This facilitated profound productivity growth. Keep in mind, the only economic element that enhances the quality of life is productivity. Governments do not create productivity. Capitalism is the sole provider of productivity. The nice life you live is a testament to capitalist’s contribution to the quality of life through their gains in productivity.

From time to time, those that rise to the top of the political heap have issues with ego. With that, they tend to think they know what is best. It is impossible for any three-pound brain to optimize all that exist. Unfortunately, egomaniacs are incapable of recognizing their punishing ineffectiveness.

Recent political battles about the debt ceiling are bullish. Over the weekend, politicians are claiming the absence of debt ceiling agreements will propel stock prices to the south this coming Monday in Asia. That is pure ego talking. The deadline is August 2; not this coming Monday.

In the meantime, the stock market bull is enjoying the bickering. Yes, Asian markets were jittery last week, while the U.S. stock market bull propelled northward and with some unusual volume support. Yes, the Asians own quite a bit of U.S. debt. That is justification for their jittery stock markets.

Yes, it is possible Asian markets could collapse next week if a debt ceiling agreement remains absent. That would be bullish, though, in the long-run. Politicians may learn they must behave in a manner friendly to the capital markets. Recognition of governmental ineffectiveness would become pronounced and with that, regulatory reductions would become the theme. Capitalistic enterprises would become more efficient, which would facilitate improvements in productivity. All of that would induce stock market bullishness.

Yes, any government that cannot pay its bills is certainly bearish because of the ease in government’s accumulation of money. When an institution can easily accumulate money, there should be no difficulty in paying bills. The problem with all governments is the waste, fraud, and abuse in what they do accumulate.

Rest assured, an Asian stock market collapse would contribute to the U.S. having greater difficulty in finding buyers of its debt. The Japanese were major U.S. debt buyers in the 1980’s and early 1990’s. Japan’s economy weakened in the 1990’s and the U.S. had to find another buyer of its debt. Once communism was displaced, in practice, in poverty-stricken China, it became the major buyer of U.S. debt. A default by the U.S. will eliminate future buyers. It will taint the U.S. and its political system for many generations.

The U.S. is running out of countries to sell their debt to. That would be bullish. Here’s why! Waste, fraud, and abuse would be minimized since there is no one who would buy it. Many on the dole among the populace would have to consider alternatives. With that votes for incumbent and life-long politicians would shift to other candidates. That would be bullish.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

The NASDAQ100’s largest gainer last week was NAS#66-FLEX. It gained 14.2% last week. It is down 83.9% since its all time high. It is up 9.5% since the MTI sell signal this past June. Its Force Vector remains in bearish domains. Its trend has been bearish for nearly ten years. The biggest loser in the NAS100 family was NAS#72-STX. It was down 13.3%. It is down 46.8% from its all time high. It is down 6.1% since the MTI buy signal last October. It is a Red Bull with rising Force Vectors. It trend is okay, but struggling for several months.

ISTK’s biggest gainer was ISTK#69-PDS. It was up 15.8%. It is down 52.7% from its all time high. It is up 53.8% since the MTI buy signal last February. Its trend since 2006/7 has been bearish, but its bullish rebound from the 2008 stock market crash has been impressive. There were no double-digit ISTK losers last week.

The Dow30, Dow Utilities, and Mutual Funds had no double-digit gainers or losers last week. The Dow Utilities did not have one loser last week.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated seven buy signals and no sell signals.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 283 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 60.1%. That annualizes to 43.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 283-stocks and funds for an average of 71.7-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 52-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 30.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 82.4-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Jul 23, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 136-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 62.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 50.0% (annualized at 41.6%). There were 178-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 18.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 55.8-weeks earlier one year ago. There were two sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 26-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Jul 24, 2009. They were up by an average of 120.0%, annualized at 62.8%, since their respective buy signals an average of 99.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 275-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 22.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 56.8-weeks earlier. There 15-buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued losing dominance at this time in 2009 along the mid-term cycle.

There were 79-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jul 18, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 187.9-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 255.1% (annualized at 70.6%). There were 263-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 13.1% from their respective sell signals an average of 20.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals on this weekend in 2008. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2008 not adding to the 382-sell signals in the prior 36-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008 and through the summer months. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the avoided stocks from late 2007 and early 2008 Mid-term Indicant sell signals remained with avoid signals during that “bullish spurt.”

On Jul 20, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 307-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 144.8% (annualized at 66.6%) since their buy signals an average of 113.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 36-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 6.3% since their sell signals an average of 29.3-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2007. The Mid-term bull cycle was beginning to struggle at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies.

Five years ago, on Jul 21, 2006, there were 168-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 159.3% (annualized at 66.4%) since their respective buy signals an average of 124.7-weeks earlier. There were 164-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 7.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 15.1-weeks earlier. There were four buy signals and nine sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid for the most part in 2006.

On Jul 22, 2005, there were 222-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 103.6%, annualizing at 60.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 88.7-weeks earlier. There were 95-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 6.0% since their sell signals an average of 17.3-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2005.

There were 212-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jul 23, 2004. They were up by an average of 80.7%, annualizing at 67.5%, since their buy signals 62.2-weeks earlier. The 83-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 26.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 41.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and 46-sell signals on this weekend in 2004 in addition to 113-sell signals in the prior 13-weeks. The meandering bear market was well underway at this time of year in 2004.

On Jul 25, 2003, there were 265-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 46.2% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 25.9-weeks earlier. That annualized at 92.9%. There were only 16-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 29.1% since their sell signals an average of 30.2-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were three buy signals in addition to 219-buy signals in the prior 18-weeks. There were 12-sell signals on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was 21-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Jul 26, 2002, there were 24-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 54.0% since their buy signals an average of 49.0-weeks earlier. 255-stocks and funds were being avoiding since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 10.9-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and 24-sell signals on this weekend in 2002 in addition to the 128-sell signals in the prior six weeks. The 2000-2002 stock market bear remained in full force at this time in 2002.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Most short-term attributes continue supporting the stock market bull along the near-term cycle. The Quick-term bullish cycle remains in tact. The Mid-term bullish cycle remains very strong and nowhere near vulnerability to bearish ambition. Political hackling is adding to bullish themes.

The mid-term election year of 2010 behaved classically pivoting in support of the normally bullish pre-election year (2011). This behavior correlated well with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemating. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish. Political hate mongering is favorable to the stock market bull and that is mounting as we approach the election year in 2012. That suggests the stock market bull will carry forward through 2012, which is consistent with historical norms.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 74.0% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 156.6% and the S&P500 is up 73.2% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 165.1% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011 in spite of recent bearishness and souring economic news. However, that can change, as Washington DC stupidity is far more reaching than historical standards suggest.

The NASDAQ is down 43.4% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 11.9% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 8.2% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish for the last eleven years.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak. Look at the resumes of intellectual elites who argue against these points. You will detect they are pure economic leeches arguing on behalf of such regulations, which is a source of their livelihoods. None has ever produced anything of value.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 17.9% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 19.9%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. Interestingly, the NASDAQ was explosively bullish on this week in 2001 in addition to the prior two weeks.

The NASDAQ was down by 34.2% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 27.7%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 5.7% and finishing up for that year by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was up 0.2% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was down by 8.4% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 11.3% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 13.1% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 22.2% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was down 1.0% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 10.5% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is flat since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 14.1% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak.

Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 four weeks ago. That was the second time this year such accomplishment has been enjoyed.

The NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is again above those levels by 8.5% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400-MidCaps is another major index tracked by the Indicant that remains above its pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 7.1% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is up by 1.7% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. The NASDAQ jumped above its Oct 31, 2007 peak on Apr 29, 2011, but expressed discomfort in doing so. It is now equal to its 2007 peak level.

The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 17.4% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks from 2007 and 2000. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow30, Dow Composites and the S&P500 remain joined with the weak S&P100 Index. Those dilettante infested companies may participate more strongly with the stock market bull in spite of that infestation. Until the Dow crosses above its pre-crash peak, the Dow Theory Forecast remains bearish. It is down 10.5% from its peak on Oct 9, 2007.

Most major last cyclical bottoms occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 93.7% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 125.3% and the S&P500 is up 98.8% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 149.0% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Of course, such bearishness will eventually occur, but the Mid-term Indicant finds limited evidence of that on the immediate horizon.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. It takes awhile for the newly elected to follow their paths of corruption and learn the ease of spending other people’s money. The stock market bull takes advantage during such phenomena. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull at this time. A potential of defaults by Greece and others, promoting and catering to laziness, add to threats to the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets both free and controlled are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As promised by Bernanke in late 2008, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. After three consecutive weeks of zero yields, the three month yields 0.1%.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 26-weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull, but still troubled. It is hovering without direction.

The Canadian dollar and the Japanese Yen remain strong and continue strengthening.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 is  challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. Statistical bullishness remains in tact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild bearish bias. It became a yellow bear three weeks ago, but bounced north off yellow, like all good bulls do.

Commodity prices continue with dynamic bullish aggression. Most continue falling from their recent record highs due to souring economic forecast. Some are no longer Red Bulls, but that is temporary. Their potential contribution to inflationary pressures remains absent. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are currently not Red Bulls.  

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures continues waffling, but remaining above the bullish Red Curve, but getting close to contact.

Commodity prices, overall, were bearish in nine of the last 12-weeks, but mildly bullish this past week. Souring economic forecasts continue dampening commodities bullish cycle. Current configurations are no longer expecting a bullish surge.

Mortgage rates are moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. They continue meandering in the zone of neutrality with bearish yellow being somewhat gravitational to their behavior.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable. That should change in the next few months, depending on economic activity. High unemployment will continue to contribute to non-inflationary tendencies.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and non-threatening toward inflation or deflation.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 19.2%, annualizing at 22.5% since then. As stated 12-weeks ago, the Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received an MTI buy signal this weekend, Jul 22, 2011. Force held in bullish domains and thus the buy signal. Vanguard Gold continues to outperform Fidelity. It would be better to move to Vanguard the next time you see a buy signal for Vanguard Gold.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 34.3%, annualized at 40.1% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 59.9%, annualized at 70.0%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 37.9% since then, annualizing at 47.5%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 49.6% since that buy signal, annualizing at 58.0%.

The Quick-term signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 48.2% since then, annualizing at 56.0%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 1, 2011. It is up 4.8% since then, annualizing at 82.7%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 93.6% since that buy signal, annualizing at 35.3%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy Jul 6, 2011. It is up 3.9% since then, annualizing at 100.5%.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The ten major indices are up by an average of 30.6% since their bull signals an average of 63.5-weeks ago. That annualizes at 25.0%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $33,258,082. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,929,280 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $158,955. That beats buy and hold’s $131,748 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $244,531. That beats buy and hold’s $99,127 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 78.7% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund. The Short-term Indicant is avoiding QID, adding little hope for a Mid-term bullish cycle for MF#22.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 338.1% (annualized at 17.1%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,029-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Force started moving bullishly this past Tuesday, paralleling stock market bullish aggression. Force Vectors continued in a bullish direction the past three days. Many crossed above Pressure this past week, adding to bullish confidence. Most non-contrarian Vector Pressure is in bullish domains, which adds to bullish potential. Nearly all short-term attributes support the short-term bull cycle.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Short-term Market Summary

Force penetrated bullish domains on last Tuesday’s aggressively bullish behavior. Most indices crossed above Pressure on Thursday’s bullish aggression. All this is bullish along the near-term cycle. The NAS100 is again nearing recent peaks. Its passage above those levels should be inspirational to the stock market bull. If not, the bear will be inspired.

Nine QTI Red Bulls and eight NTI Blue Bulls prevent sustainable bearish behavior.

Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for all major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 3.0% since their bull signals on June 28, annualizing at 47.6%.  Contrarian VIX is up 1.4% since its bear signal 3.3-weeks ago.

There were no new bull/bear signals by the Quick-term Indicant.

The Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for all major non-contrarian indices for an average of 41.8-weeks. They are up by an average of 20.9% since their bull signals, annualizing at 26.1%. The VIX is up 6.1% since the QTI signaled sell on June 30, 2011.

This paragraph is repeated from last Thursday’s daily stock market report. VIX Force is above Pressure and in bullish domains. That is normally bullish. However, it is bullishly mature and remains configured for VIX bearishness.

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. It fell back into low activity a few weeks later. However, lethargy is no longer accelerating, as normalcy with respect to summertime’s depressed volume is maturing. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains but approaching high interest.

Jul 22-Fri-Light volume on mild mixed behavior is not confrontational to the newly evolving near-term bull cycle.

Jul 21-Thu-Relative to recent history, volume was up significantly on stock market bullish aggression. That bodes very well, indeed, for the new near-term bull cycle.

Jul 20-Wed-No dramatics again. Low volume on mild bearish behavior is nothing

Jul 19-Tue-Up volume on bullish aggression is inspirational to the bull’s continuation.

Jul 18-Mon-Normal volume on bearish aggression offers little volume related interpretations with current configurations.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 2.0% since their buy signals an average of 3.1-weeks ago, annualizing at 32.8%.

The NTI is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down by an average of 2.9% since their sell signals an average of 3.2-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 26.1% since their buy signals an average of 45.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 29.5%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down by an average of 11.8% since the QTI sell signal an average of 7.4-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 1, 2011.  It is up 4.8% since that buy signal, annualizing at 82.7%. Since Pressure is in bullish domains, consider setting stop loss to average of NTI Blue (76.72) and Green until such time Green (72.69) crosses above buy price (76.06). As you can see, NTI Blue continues to increase. NTI Green increased for the first time in this cycle on Mon-Jul 18.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 48.2%, annualizing at 56.0% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until interacting with QTI Yellow.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 93.6% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 35.3%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $135.72 and still rising. Relaxation is in order since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $156.12.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 8, 2011, as Force penetrated bullish domains. It is up 3.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 100.5%.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a sell signal on June 29 from the Near-term Indicant. It is up 2.3% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Jun 30, 2011. It is up 2.4% since then. Force is moving south. This ETF was not contrarian last Tue and Wed, but solidly bearish on last Thursday’s strong stock market bullish behavior.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell this past Thursday for ETF#31-QID.  It is down 9.1% since those sell signals. Its Force Vector is shifting south, supporting non-bullishness in this contrarian fund.

The Quick-term signaled sell on Apr 1, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. It is down 28.7% since that sell signal. It is down 1.9% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jun 30, 2011. You should notice its Force Vector is again moving south (bearishly) with Pressure in bearish domains. That is a bearish configuration.

Major ETF Events

Jul 22-Fri-No major events.

Jul 21-Thu-There were no major events.

Jul 20-Wed-There were no major events.

Jul 19-Tue-The expected bullish bounce occurred, offering discouragement to the stock market bear.

Jul 18-Mon-Most non-contrarian Force Vectors abated bearish slide. This increases probability of a bullish bounce. If they resume their bearish slide, that probability vanishes.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Jul 22, 2011. Vector Pressure remains in bullish domains, offering resistance to bearish ambition along the short-term cycle.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed bullish convergence last week and in three of the last four weeks. That is bullish, but still lacks the desired four consecutive weeks of bullish convergence. The NASDAQ and smaller cap stocks are again interacting with their 2007-precrash highs. It will be interesting to see if they can depart from these recent areas of bullish resistance.

Indicant Conclusion

The bear acquiesced to bullish ambition with heightened political bickering on the debt ceiling. The capital markets are always aroused at noisy finger-pointing by politicians. The bull gains significant confidence when politicians are in disagreement.

The stock market has been struggling the past several weeks eclipsing 2007 peak prices. It will be interesting to see if the bull can gain enough must to pass these recent points of resistance to its growth.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions from last Christmas never produced significant increases in volume. Summertime volume will influence continuing lethargic volume behavior. That can incite additional volatility. You have been witnessing this phenomenon the past few weeks. However, last Tuesday’s bullish behavior was coupled to a volume surge and that is bullish.

As stated the past 95-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle other than short-term attributes and this week’s Mid-term Indicant bear signal for the S&P100, which is now supporting bearish behavior.

Inflationary threats continue. The constituents keep changing. If the same constituents from the early 70’s were used, inflation would be at double digit levels. Stagflation remains as an accurate descriptor of the current economy. Economic data continues offering evidence of souring activity. However, congressional and presidential budgetary failures this past week at raising the debt limit was profoundly bullish.

The stock market continues enduring difficulties manifesting breakout configurations, whereby prior cyclical peaks are offering resistance. The next few weeks will indeed be interesting.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

07/24/2011

Jul 17, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 07, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Breakout Manifestations Proving Difficult

In late 2007, the S&P500 crossed above the previous 2000-cyclical peaks a couple of times. Following those crossings, the S&P500 nosedived with the 2007-2008 stock market bear. Click this sentence to take a look at that phenomenon.

The term, breakout, is sometimes referred to those points when prices cross above prior cyclical peaks. Some refer to cyclical peaks and minimums as “resistance points.” Unfortunately, there is little correlation to breakouts and resistance points and future stock market behavior. Its simplicity invokes the phenomenon of commonality and thus prohibits any predictable result.

However, when a stock, fund, or index flutters around a potential breakout point, it is worthy of notation and tracking in spite of offering nothing in the way of predicting future behavior. It does offer some idea, though, of commitment to directional intensity. Of course, absent commitment at any point in time can reverse itself at the next point of observation with direct and dynamic attendance.

As you can see from viewing the chart, the S&P500 is nowhere near crossing the new peak levels from 2007. Therefore, there is no “breakout potential” on the immediate horizon for the S&P500. However, the NASDAQ is currently demonstrating similar behavior to the S&P500’s 2007 behavior.

Along the mid-term cycle, it is worth tracking a major index’s difficulty is breaking above and holding above prior cyclical peaks. Cyclical peaks and minimums offer some emotional consideration for stock market behavior. Institutions and other big money sources tend to bias buying and selling along these peaks and minimums.

Although the S&P500 is not configuring in support of this analysis, the NASDAQ index is. Scroll down from the previous link or click this sentence to view its chart. As you can see, its behavior the past several weeks is similar to the S&P500’s behavior prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. You noticed the stock market bear followed the S&P500 fluttering around its potential breakout point in late 2007. You should also notice the S&P500 chart goes back to 2000, while NASDAQ does not. That is because the NASDAQ is not expected to get back to its all time peak from 2000 until after the year, 2025. It would confuse to show the massive 80% NASDAQ crash from the years, 2000 through 2002.

The past several weeks, the NASDAQ has crossed above its 2007 peak three times. All three incidents were followed with bearish spurts. In other words, the NASDAQ has not found comfort in exceeding its pre-crash highs. It has equally not yet given up on bullish ambition. It is simply fluttering as the bull and bear battle at this critical juncture. Google profits impressed this past week and a source of the NASDAQ’s refusal to fall under the bear’s spell. Unfortunately, Google is not an economic wealth creator. It does not manufacture, extract, or grow crop. Google is a mere transfer agent of wealth.

Why has the NASDAQ toppled its 2007 peak three times and then fall below those levels each time?

Answers to that question are speculative. However, this resistance to breakout does correlate with the U.S. president’s bantering tax increases on the wealthy. His comments cannot be claimed as causation. However, if there is a tax increase, followed by a massive bear market, historical observations can then claim causation.

The U.S. president has not problem raising taxes on the wealthy because they are not that many votes. Regardless of reason, though, the capital markets must get concerned about taking capital from capitalists and plowing it through the vast layers of inefficiencies in the federal government and politicians, where corruption exceeds even the wastefulness of massive inefficiencies.

Following the stock market crash of 1929, President Herbert Hoover, raised taxes. That stupidity, coupled with FDR policies, extended the related economic recession for several years. It was so bad, economists termed that period with economic depression. Think for a moment about how you would spend your money, as opposed to some bureaucrat or politician handing it over to some professor to study Chinese prostitute’s drinking behavior in China.

Although correlative relationships between breakout fluttering and future stock market behavior remains absent, this is worthy of tracking for the next few weeks. If the bear regains dominance in the next few weeks, then one should not expect a resumption of the stock market bull. This will be tracked at the webpage linked in this sentence.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

The largest NAS100 gainer was NAS#08-GOOG. It was up 12.8% last week and up 61.0% since MTI buy signal on Feb 6, 2009, annualizing at 24.7%. Google’s operation does not create wealth, but a rising stock price is worth the investment.

 The NAS100 biggest loser last week was a good company. It was NAS100#56-FLIR. It was down 15.5%. This stock did not incur much of 2008’s wrath by the stock market bear. It is up 31.5% since the MTI signaled buy on Apr 17, 2009, annualizing at 13.8%.

The Indicant Select Stock’s biggest gainer was ISTK#97-PDLI. It was up 8.9% last week. It is down 91.2% since its all time high price of $70.84. It closed last week at $6.26. It is down 65.3% since the MTI sell signal in Nov 2007. As you can see, this stock is with long-term bearish trend.

The biggest select loser was ISTK#91-NVLS.  It was down 11.3% last week. It is up 34.0% since the MTI buy signal in Dec 2009. It is down 54.4% since its all-time high. It has been flat this century, but with significant cyclical shifts.

The Dow30, Dow Utilities, and Mutual Funds did not endure any double digit price swings last week.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 283 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 56.1%. That annualizes to 41.3%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 283-stocks and funds for an average of 70.7-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 52-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 28.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 80.2-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Jul 16, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 138-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 61.2-weeks. They were up by an average of 44.5% (annualized at 37.7%). There were 178-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 22.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 54.8-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no-sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 26-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Jul 17, 2009. They were up by an average of 119.0%, annualized at 62.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 98.7-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 290-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 25.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 54.7-weeks earlier. There no buy signals and sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued losing dominance at this time in 2009, as buy signals were about to be executed in the face of questionable fundamentals.

There were 79-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jul 11, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 186.9-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 262.9% (annualized at 73.1%). There were 261-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 13.5% from their respective sell signals an average of 19.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals on this weekend in 2008. There were five sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 382-sell signals in the prior 35-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008 and through the summer months. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the avoided stocks from late 2007 and early 2008 Mid-term Indicant sell signals remained with avoid signals during that “bullish spurt.”

On Jul 13, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 307-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 145.0% (annualized at 67.3%) since their buy signals an average of 112.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 37-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 8.3% since their sell signals an average of 28.1-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2007. The Mid-term bull cycle was beginning to struggle at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies.

Five years ago, on Jul 14, 2006, there were 177-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 156.0% (annualized at 67.2) since their respective buy signals an average of 120.7-weeks earlier. There were 143-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 8.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 16.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and 25-sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid for the most part in 2006.

On Jul 15, 2005, there were 203-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 107.9%, annualizing at 59.8%, since their respective buy signals an average of 93.8-weeks earlier. There were 97-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 6.2% since their sell signals an average of 61.5-weeks earlier. There were 20-buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 212-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jul 16, 2004. They were up by an average of 79.1%, annualizing at 69.0%, since their buy signals 53.7-weeks earlier. The 50-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 29.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 45.9-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and 34-sell signals on this weekend in 2004 in addition to 79-sell signals in the prior 12-weeks. The meandering bear market was well underway at this time of year in 2004.

On Jul 18, 2003, there were 277-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 44.4% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 24.8-weeks earlier. That annualized at 93.2%. There were only 13-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 28.1% since their sell signals an average of 29.6-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were no buy signals in addition to 219-buy signals in the prior 17-weeks. There were six sell signals on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was 20-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Jul 19, 2002, there were 39-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 38.4% since their buy signals an average of 44.4-weeks earlier. 241-stocks and funds were being avoiding since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 10.4-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and 13-sell signals on this weekend in 2002 in addition to the 115-sell signals in the prior five weeks. The 2000-2002 stock market bear remained in full force at this time in 2002.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

There were no buy or sell signals this weekend. Most short-term attributes are now supporting the stock market bull along the near-term cycle. The Quick-term bullish cycle remains in tact. The Mid-term bullish cycle remains very strong and nowhere near vulnerability to bearish ambition.

The mid-term election year of 2010 behaved classically pivoting in support of the normally bullish pre-election year (2011). This behavior correlated well with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemating. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish. Political hate mongering is favorable to the stock market bull and that is mounting as we approach the election year in 2012. That suggests the stock market bull will carry forward through 2012, which is consistent with historical norms.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 71.3% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 150.4% and the S&P500 is up 69.4% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 161.2% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011 in spite of recent bearishness and souring economic news. However, that can change, as Washington DC stupidity is far more reaching than historical standards suggest.

The NASDAQ is down 44.7% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 13.8% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 6.5% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish for the last eleven years.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak. Look at the resumes of intellectual elites who argue against these points. You will detect they are pure economic leeches arguing on behalf of such regulations, which is a source of their livelihoods. None has ever produced anything of value.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 15.6% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 19.9%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. Interestingly, the NASDAQ was explosively bullish on this week in 2001 in addition to the prior two weeks.

The NASDAQ was down by 29.1% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 31.3%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 4.5% and finishing up for that year by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was down 0.9% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was down by 7.6% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 12.1% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 16.5% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 18.1% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was down 0.9% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 11.9% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is flat since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 15.9% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak.

Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 three weeks ago. That was the second time this year such accomplishment has been enjoyed.

The NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is again above those levels by 5.3% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400-MidCaps is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that remains above its pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 5.4% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is up by 0.2% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. The NASDAQ jumped above its Oct 31, 2007 peak on Apr 29, 2011, but expressed discomfort in doing so. It is down 2.4% since its 2007 peak level.

The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 19.5% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks from 2007 and 2000. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow30, Dow Composites and the S&P500 remain joined with the weak S&P100 Index. Those dilettante infested companies may participate more strongly with the stock market bull in spite of that infestation. Until the Dow crosses above its pre-crash peak, the Dow Theory Forecast remains bearish.

Most major last cyclical bottoms occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 90.6% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 119.9% and the S&P500 is up 94.5% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 145.3% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Of course, such bearishness will eventually occur, but the Mid-term Indicant finds limited evidence of that on the immediate horizon.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. It takes awhile for the newly elected to follow their paths of corruption and learn the ease of spending other people’s money. The stock market bull takes advantage during such phenomena. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull at this time. A potential of defaults by Greece and others, promoting and catering to laziness, add to threats to the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets both free and controlled are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As promised by Bernanke in late 2008, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. The three-month continues yielding zero as of this past Friday morning. That is the third consecutive week of zero yields. CD’s remain a joke. Who would buy them?

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 25-weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull, but still troubled.

The Canadian dollar and the Japanese Yen remain strong.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to be challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. However, statistical bullishness for gold remains in tact along the mid-term cycle; albeit in a bit of short-term trouble. It is need of some cooling, but continued heating prevails. It has not approached critical temperature and not yet melted. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild bearish bias. It became a yellow bear two weeks ago, based on political manipulations, and retaining that status.

Commodity prices continue with dynamic bullish aggression. Most continue falling from their recent record highs due to souring economic forecast. Some are no longer Red Bulls, but that is temporary. Their potential contribution to inflationary pressures remains absent. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are no longer Red Bulls.  

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures continues waffling, but remaining above the bullish Red Curve, but getting close to contact.

Commodity prices, overall, were bearish in nine of the last eleven weeks. Souring economic forecasts continue dampening commodities bullish cycle. Current configurations are no longer expecting a bullish surge.

Mortgage rates are moving bearishly.   They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. They continue meandering in the zone of neutrality.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable. That should change in the next few months.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 15.3%, annualizing at 18.3% since then. As stated eleven weeks ago, the Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is up 12.7% since the MTI sell signal on Jun 24, 2011. There is no point in holding this poorly performing fund at this time, but reconsidering this. The MTI is waiting to see if Force can hold in bullish domains for one more week.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 29.5%, annualized at 35.3% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 51.3%, annualized at 61.4%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 32.2% since then, annualizing at 41.4%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 44.1% since that buy signal, annualizing at 52.8%.

The Quick-term signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 42.9% since then, annualizing at 51.0%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 1, 2011. It is up 1.1% since then, annualizing at 27.0%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 92.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 35.2%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy Jul 6, 2011. It is up 3.3% since then, annualizing at 169.4%.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The ten major indices are up by an average of 28.0% since their bull signals an average of 62.5-weeks ago. That annualizes at 23.3%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $32,729,804. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,898,635 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $155,542. That beats buy and hold’s $128,920 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $238,626. That beats buy and hold’s $96,734 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 77.3% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund. The Short-term Indicant is avoiding QID, adding little hope for a Mid-term bullish cycle for MF#22.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 331.1% (annualized at 16.7%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,028-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Force fell below Pressure and into bearish domains. Prices fell below NTI blue for the most part. In spite of that, no bear/sell signals were triggered this past Thursday. As stated in the daily stock market report this past Thursday, there are three reasons for this. The Dow Utilities remains a QTI Red Bull. That is a bit unusual with these configurations. One Red Bull among the major indices is justification for retaining bull/hold signals.

Vector Pressure remains in bullish domains. As stated this past Thursday, that coupled with bearishly mature Force Vectors stimulated a relatively high probability of a bullish bounce. That occurred on Friday, but this embryonic near-term bullish cycle remains vulnerable to the bear.

In summary, bearish Force is decelerating. Pressure remains in bullish domains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average joined the Dow Utilities as a QTI Red Bull on Friday’s bullish behavior. Although that bullish behavior was not that inspiring, having two QTI Red Bulls is.

If Force continues moving south, this bearish spurt will display more depth. That could add some breadth and threaten the classification of a mere spurt.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Short-term Market Summary

All conditions justifying a bear signal occurred this past Thursday. As stated in Thursday’s daily stock market report, prices fell below NTI Blue and Force fell into bearish domains. Those two conditions qualified for signaling bear. However, as stated last Thursday, there are three issues confronting a bear signal at this time. 1) The bearish Force Vector cycle is mature and due for reversal. 2) Vector Pressure remains in bullish domains. 3) The Dow Utilities remains as a QTI Red Bull.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved back into QTI Red Bull status. That adds discouragement to bearish desires. The bull/bear battle along the short-term curves remains in effect.

The expected bearish spurt occurred most of last week. As stated last Wednesday, configurations suggest this bearish spurt may not yet be complete. However, near-term attributes are being threatened with configurations nearing support for concerns exceeding that of a bearish spurt.

Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for all major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 1.0% since their bull signals on June 28, annualizing at 22.2%.  Contrarian VIX is up 13.1% since its bear signal 2.3-weeks ago.

There were no new bull/bear signals by the Quick-term Indicant.

The Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for all major non-contrarian indices for an average of 40.8-weeks. They are up by an average of 18.6% since their bull signals, annualizing at 23.7%. The VIX is up 18.2% since the QTI signaled sell on June 30, 2011.

This paragraph is repeated from last Thursday’s daily stock market report. VIX Force is above Pressure and in bullish domains. That is normally bullish. However, it is bullishly mature and Pressure remains in bearish domains, which offers a heightened probability of VIX bearishness on the immediate horizon. Short-term attributes have not yet to acquiesce to bearish desires. Therefore, bull signals along the near-term cycle remain.

The VIX was mildly bearish this past Friday.

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. It fell back into low activity a few weeks later. However, lethargy is no longer accelerating, as normalcy with respect to summertime’s depressed volume is maturing. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains with some mild interest in gaining robustness.

Jul 15-Mon-Volume was mildly down on mild bullish behavior, omitting desired encouragement for the bull.

Jul 14-Thu-Volume was up a bit on mild bearishness, adding to concerns regarding volume’s support for a near-term bearish cycle.

Jul 13-Wed-Mild volume on mild bullishness retains yesterday’s bearish advantage, but just a mild edge; nothing more.

Jul 12-Tue-Volume was aggressive on bearish behavior. That is an edge to the bear.

Jul 11-Mon-Volume was subdued on bearish aggression. That coupled with other short-term attributes do not suggest bearish dominance on the immediate horizon.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are down 0.1% since their buy signals an average of 2.1-weeks ago.

The NTI is avoiding three ETF’s. They are up by an average of 2.9% since their sell signals an average of 2.2-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 23.6% since their buy signals an average of 44.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 27.3%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down by an average of 7.0% since the QTI sell signal an average of 6.4-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 1, 2011.  It is up 1.1% since that buy signal, annualizing at 27.0%. Since Pressure is in bullish domains, consider setting stop loss to average of NTI Blue (75.58) and Green until such time Green (71.08) crosses above buy price (76.06). As you can see, NTI Blue continues to increase while NTI Green continues decreasing, but now mildly so. The  average does not change much. That will be the case until such time NTI Green starts increasing, which will require bullish sustainability.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 42..9%, annualizing at 51.0% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until interacting with QTI Yellow.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 92.4% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 35.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $135.25 and still rising. Relaxation is in order since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $155.20.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy last Friday, as Force penetrated bullish domains. It is up 3.3% since that buy signal, annualizing at 169.4%.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a sell signal on June 29 from the Near-term Indicant. It is up 2.4% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Jun 30, 2011. It is up 2.5% since then. Force is bullishly mature and justification for continued avoidance.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell this past Thursday for ETF#31-QID. As stated last week, it is configured for a rebound. It is down 3.2% since those sell signals. Its Force Vector is bullishly mature, supporting non-bullishness in this contrarian fund.

The Quick-term signaled sell on Apr 1, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. It is down 20.4% since that sell signal. It is up 9.6% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jun 30, 2011. You should notice its Force Vector is moving north, but its Pressure remains in bearish domains. It crossed Pressure last Tue and climbed in bullish domains this past Wed. Its Force cycle is bullishly mature. A buy signal will occur if Force holds in bullish domains for a few days.

Major ETF Events

Jul 15-Fri-Expected bullish behavior occurred. Bearish Force appears to be weakening.

Jul 14-Thu-Force fell below Pressure and many into bearish domains. The Force Vector cycles are mature, fostering probabilities of a bullish rebound. If there is no bullish bounce and Force continues to plummet, risks will be too high to continue holding.

Jul 13-Wed-The bull responded to recent bearish aggression, but meekly so. Short-term attributes are nestled into an inflection point. They mildly favor the bull, but an inflection point is an invitation to either bullish or bearish bias.

Jul 12-Tue-Prices remain, for the most part, above the Near-term Blue curve, in spite of bearish aggression the last three days. Therefore, the NTI Bull remains in tact.

Jul 11-Mon-Bullishly mature Force Vectors did not move laterally in bullish domains, thereby threatening the near-term bull cycle. They have not fallen enough, though, to support bearish dominance.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Jul 15, 2011. Vector Pressure remains in bullish domains, offering resistance to bearish ambition.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market endured bearish convergence last week, following two consecutive weeks of bullish convergence. The stock market will not provide the desired four consecutive weeks of bullish convergence in this particular cycle.

Indicant Conclusion

The bear agitated bullish aspirations this past week. Configurations indicate an extending inflection point. Short-term Force Vectors fell into bearish domains, while Mid-term cyclical Force Vectors climbed into bullish domains.

The stock market has been struggling the past several weeks eclipsing 2007 peak prices. The capital markets are challenging validity of surpassing 2007 peak levels.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions from last Christmas never produced significant increases in volume. Summertime volume will influence continuing lethargic volume behavior. That can incite additional volatility. You have been witnessing this phenomenon the past few weeks.

As stated the past 94-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle other than short-term attributes and this week’s Mid-term Indicant bear signal for the S&P100, which is now supporting bearish behavior.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation remains as an accurate descriptor of the current economy. Economic data continues offering evidence of souring activity. However, congressional and presidential budgetary failures this past week at raising the debit limit was profoundly bullish.

The stock market continues enduring difficulties manifesting breakout configurations, whereby prior cyclical peaks are offering resistance.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

07/17/2011

Jul 10, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 07, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

When Obvious Stupidity Is Not

Politicians on Saturday, July 9, 2011 have apparently agreed to pursue a more passive and more agreeable plan to reduce the Federal deficit by only $2-trillion over the next ten years, as opposed to the more aggressive $4-tillion reduction plan.

Ten year plans by politicians are a joke, albeit absent of humor. It allows them to continue their bantering, using phony numbers and phony timelines. Between now and ten years from now, the U.S. House of Representatives will endure five elections. Many incumbents will not be re-elected. The newly elected will have no respect for any agreements by their predecessors. If they want to spend more than the so-called $2-trillion now being considered for reductions in government spending, rest assured they would. Future congressional members will not care about their predecessors’ agreements.

Anyone listening to any contemporary politician about deficit reductions “over the next ten years” will be doing so, hopefully, for amusement purposes, as opposed to an intellectual engagement. The problem will exacerbate, exponentially, if 51% of the voters believe the flow of political chitchat.  That dynamic will eventually lead to systemic dysfunction in the U.S. democracy.

Tax bracketing discussions led to the exclusion of the $4-trillion reduction plan this weekend. The executive branch wants to elevate taxes on the “very wealthy.” Congressional republicans said “no.”

The problem with the political tax debate is the definition of wealthy. Some state that an income exceeding $250,000, or so, is received by a wealthy person. Others argue that person may not be wealthy. A used machine, which may be needed, for a small business to grow, may cost $250,000. The entrepreneurially minded person will take his entire $250,000 to auction and spend it on a new machine. Increasing taxes on that person threatens the ability to buy and hire folks to run that machine.

The Whitehouse, as quoted by the Wall Street Journal on Saturday, stated the following: “We cannot task the middle-class and seniors to bear all of the burden of higher costs and budget cuts. We need a balanced approach that tasks the very wealthiest and special interests to pay their fair share as well, and we believe the American people agree.”

Why was the word, middle-class, used in the above sentence? It is simple. There are more potential votes from the middle-class. This is stupidity relative to economy, but the only relevance to the politician. Anyone not knowing that is in trouble. FDR did same, extending the Great Depression and leading millions into a world war.

Why are politicians using the word, seniors more often? It is simple. There are more potential votes among seniors. Baby boomers, who were spoiled by the greatest generation, absent of the 600,000 or so brave, but dead soldiers from World War II are beginning to retire. They will constitute a huge number of votes in the immediate future. This will accelerate, quite significantly, demands on the “inefficient” healthcare industry.

Why is it implied that the middle-class and seniors will bear all of the burden of higher costs and budget cuts? What is being proposed that suggests “all” of the burden is shifted to those two groups? Why don’t politicians share in that burden? For starters, fire all the staff employed by congressmen. Close Camp David. Shut off the air conditioners in the Whitehouse and congressional buildings. This is especially important for those who proclaim global warming is damaging the earth. Change Air Force One from whatever all those huge plans are to a single Cessna and/or just one helicopter. All congressional laws must be written in long-hand by a congressmen. Therefore, all computers should be removed from congress. So, rather than the middle-class and seniors enduring all of the burden, politicians should contribute to burden sharing.

What is meant by a “balanced approach?” If Leroy pays say $10,000 in income taxes, then Elroy should also pay $10,000 in income taxes. If we place Leroy’s $10,000 in one scale and Elroy’s $10,000 in another scale, they will weigh the same if one-dollar dominations are used for both scales. That is balance. It is inarguably balanced. Any argument between two or more people about what is balance is an argument for imbalance. So, where is the definition of balance from the Whitehouse? Rest assured there is none.

What is meant by the very wealthiest and special interest paying their fair share? What is fair? Would a 50% tax bracket to the very wealthiest be fair with the middle-class enduring, say, only 20%? The word, fair, should never have a singular opinion. Joseph Stalin did not think it was fair when one argued with him or even looked at him wrong. So, at night, he had his soldiers gather up the one who argued with him or looked at him wrong and his family and have them shot. Thousands close to Stalin, who endured Stalin “fairness”, were never seen again, including young children. What is fair? Who could possibly have the wisdom to determine how much Elroy’s scale would tilt downward, as Elroy’s scale titled upward? Who can show us the math where imbalance is fair?

Additionally, the EPA, FDA, etc. could be eliminated. All they do is accelerate costs and inefficiencies. Canceling Medicare, which propelled healthcare inefficiencies, would be appropriate and that should be accomplished next Monday morning. The Dow would most likely skyrocket 1,000 or more points before noon next Monday if all three were signed into law at 8 A.M. this coming Monday. With that, along with other spending cuts, should result in a reduction in the debt ceiling; not an increase.

Will the stock market be fooled when obvious stupidity is not? The ten-year deficit reduction is a joke. So, when politicians, some of which were unbelievably elected by constituents somewhere in the U.S., decide to reduce their ambition from $4-trillion to $2-trillion, coupled to a joke, should not exuded a bullish response. Cutting one-half of the joke in half should be bearish. This should enhance the performance of the Congressional Effect, MF#53, CEFFX, which is currently enjoying a steady northward trend.

Do not be surprised at non-bullishness to bearish behavior if the deficit ceiling is raised and political chitchat continues with non-humorous jokes about economic excellence in the year 2021. If 51% of voters fall for the massive stupidity now underway and re-elect existing political incumbents, rest assured the stock market bear will clearly and dynamically display its ambition. Even with that, politicians will continue to enjoy to good life, as least for a while, while the obvious stupidity was not obvious to the masses.

The middle-class should eventually understand the elite class loves having a middle-class “to rule.” What is not so obvious is that the middle-class will eventually evaporate with only two resulting classes; a very few in the elite class with 99%+ in the poverty class. All such systems conclude that way. It is a physical law, universal law, and embedded in human and leech DNA.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

The largest NAS100 gainer was NAS#28-URBN. It was up 10.8% last week. It is up 33.2% since the MTI buy signal in Jul 2009. As you can see, this stock has a solid bullish trend.

The biggest N100 loser was NAS#23-LOGI. It was down 8.2% this past week. It is down 23.2% since the MTI sell signal this past April. After many years of a solid bullish trend, this stock has yet to escape the wrath of the great bear stock market of 2008.

The largest Indicant Select gain last week was ITSK#47-ENZ. It was up 7.5%. It is up 18.6% since the MTI sell signal this past May. As you can see, this stock continues enduring a long-term bearish trend. It is down 95.9% since its all time high several years ago. It is currently be jacked around by floor traders and one of the reason for continued avoidance in spite of being up since the MTI sell signal.

The biggest Indicant Select loser was ISTK#42-AFFX. It was down 15.8% last week. It is down 70.9% since the MTI sell signal in Jan 2008. This dog is down 95.8% from its all time high. This stock participated in the 2003 stock market bull. It has been incapable of participating in the current stock market bull.

The Dow30 and Dow Utilities components traded in a tight range this past week. Also, mutual funds were equally tame.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 283 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 59.6%. That annualizes to 44.4%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 283-stocks and funds for an average of 79.2-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 52-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 27.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 79.2-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Jul 9, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 138-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 60.2-weeks. They were up by an average of 46.1% (annualized at 39.8%). There were 178-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 21.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 53.8-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no-sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 23-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Jul 10, 2009. They were up by an average of 121.4%, annualized at 64.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 98.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 288-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 32.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 54.6-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued losing dominance at this time in 2009, as buy signals were nearing and about to be executed in the face of questionable fundamentals.

There were 84-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jul 4, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 184.5-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 262.4% (annualized at 74.0%). There were 241-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 15.2% from their respective sell signals an average of 20.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals on this weekend in 2008. There were 20-sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 362-sell signals in the prior 34-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008 and through the summer months. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the avoided stocks from late 2007 and early 2008 Mid-term Indicant sell signals remained with avoid signals during that “bullish spurt.”

On Jul 6, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 308-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 140.6% (annualized at 65.9%) since their buy signals an average of 110.9-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 36-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 12.7% since their sell signals an average of 27.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2007. The Mid-term bull cycle was beginning to struggle at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies.

Five years ago, on Jul 7, 2006, there were 202-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 152.4% (annualized at 69.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 113.8-weeks earlier. There were 136-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 5.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 16.2-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and seven sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid for the most part in 2006.

On Jul 8, 2005, there were 195-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 110.7%, annualizing at 59.2%, since their respective buy signals an average of 97.3-weeks earlier. There were 116-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 25.4% since their sell signals an average of 61.3-weeks earlier. There were eight buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2005.

There were 246-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jul 9, 2004. They were up by an average of 67.8%, annualizing at 65.6%, since their buy signals 53.7-weeks earlier. The 36-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 31.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 45.9-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and 14-sell signals on this weekend in 2004 in addition to 65-sell signals in the prior eleven weeks. The meandering bear market was well underway at this time of year in 2004.

On Jul 11, 2003, there were 278-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 47.5% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 23.9-weeks earlier. That annualized at 103.2%. There were only 10-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 29.0% since their sell signals an average of 29.1-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were five buy signals in addition to 214-buy signals in the prior 16-weeks. There were three sell signals on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was 20-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Jul 12, 2002, there were 50-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 40.3% since their buy signals an average of 45.0-weeks earlier. 220-stocks and funds were being avoiding since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 10.7-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and 22-sell signals on this weekend in 2002 in addition to the 93-sell signals in the prior four weeks. The 2000-2002 stock market bear remained in full force at this time in 2002.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

There were no buy or sell signals this weekend. Most short-term attributes are now supporting the stock market bull along the near-term cycle. The Quick-term bullish cycle remains in tact. The Mid-term bullish cycle remains very strong and nowhere near vulnerability to bearish ambition.

The mid-term election year of 2010 behaved classically pivoting in support of the normally bullish pre-election year (2011). This behavior correlated well with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemating. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish. Political hate mongering is favorable to the stock market bull and that is mounting as we approach the election year in 2012. That suggests the stock market bull will carry forward through 2012, which is consistent with historical norms.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 73.7% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 156.7% and the S&P500 is up 73.0% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 168.2% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011 in spite of recent bearishness and souring economic news. However, that can change, as Washington DC stupidity is far more reaching than historical standards suggest.

The NASDAQ is down 43.4% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 12.0% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 8.0% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser as the stock market has been flat to bearish for the last eleven years.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak. Look at the resumes of intellectual elites who argue against these points. You will detect they are pure economic leeches arguing on behalf of such regulations, which is a source of their livelihoods. None has ever produced anything of value.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 18.9% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 19.9%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. Interestingly, the NASDAQ was explosively bullish on this week in 2001 in addition to the prior two weeks.

The NASDAQ was down by 28.0% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 30.8%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 3.4% and finishing up for that year by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was down 2.9% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was down by 3.4% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 10.4% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 13.5% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 10.8% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was down 4.1% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 10.6% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is flat since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 14.1% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak.

The S&P600-small cap index is up by 2.9% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 two weeks ago. That is the second time this year such accomplishment has been enjoyed.

The NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is again above those levels by 7.5% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400-MidCaps is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that remains above its pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 8.5% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. The S&P600 again joined the ranks of these successes this past week. The NASDAQ jumped above its Oct 31, 2007 peak on Apr 29, 2011, but expressed discomfort in doing so. It quickly fell back below those levels, but mildly so. However, it gained by  significant amounts the past two weeks and is again flat from where it was almost four years ago.

The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 18.1% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks from 2007 and 2000. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow30, Dow Composites and the S&P500 remain joined with the weak S&P100 Index. Those dilettante infested companies may participate more strongly with the stock market bull in spite of that infestation. Until the Dow crosses above its pre-crash peak, the Dow Theory Forecast remains bearish.

Most major last cyclical bottoms occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 93.3% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 125.4% and the S&P500 is up 98.6% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 151.9% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Of course, such bearishness will eventually occur, but the Mid-term Indicant finds limited evidence of that on the immediate horizon.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. It takes awhile for the newly elected to follow their paths of corruption and learn the ease of spending other people’s money. The stock market bull takes advantage during such phenomena. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull at this time. A potential of defaults by Greece and others, promoting and catering to laziness, add to threats to the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets both free and controlled are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As promised by Bernanke, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. The three-month continues yielding zero as of late this past Thursday evening. That is the third consecutive week of zero yields. CD’s remain a joke. Who would buy them?

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 25-weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull, but still troubled.

The Canadian dollar and the Japanese Yen remain strong.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to be challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. However, statistical bullishness for gold remains in tact along the mid-term cycle; albeit in a bit of short-term trouble. It is need of some cooling. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild bearish bias. It became a yellow bear this week, based on political manipulations.

Commodity prices continue with dynamic bullish aggression. Most have fallen of their recent record highs due to souring economic forecast. Some are no longer Red Bulls, but that is temporary. Their potential contribution to inflationary pressures remains absent. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are no longer Red Bulls.  

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures continues waffling, but remaining well above the bullish Red Curve.

Commodity prices, overall, were bearish in eight of the last ten weeks, but bullish in the last two weeks. Do not be surprised at a bullish surge when they interact with the bullish Red Curve. Some have already done that, but all of them will have to do that before exciting the commodities bull. The CRB Bridge Futures has yet to interact with bullish Red Curve. The surge will also require the U.S. dollar’s resumption of its bearish slide.

Mortgage rates are moving bearishly.   They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. Interestingly, they are enjoying a mild bounce off bearish Yellow Curve.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable. That should change in the next few months.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 14.3%, annualizing at 17.5% since then. As stated ten weeks ago, the Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold. However, the Short-term Indicant is detecting increasing bearish interest in gold.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is up 7.3% since the MTI sell signal last weekend. There is no point in holding this poorly performing fund at this time.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 30.1%, annualized at 36.8% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 52.4%, annualized at 64.2%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 27.3% since then, annualizing at 35.9%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 45.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 55.5%.

The Quick-term signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 45.4% since then, annualizing at 52.2%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 1, 2011. It is up 1.1% since then, annualizing at 56.1%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 86.3% since that buy signal, annualizing at 33.1%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy again this past Friday after avoiding most of last week.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The ten major indices are up by an average of 31.0% since their bull signals an average of 61.5-weeks ago. That annualizes at 26.2%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $33,195,343. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,925,635 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $158,811. That beats buy and hold’s $131,629 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $244,165. That beats buy and hold’s $99,161 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 78.1% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund. The Short-term Indicant signaled sell for QID this past week and thus losing short-term support for its bullishness.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 337.3% (annualized at 17.1%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,027-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

The near-term bullish cycle continues to impress in spite of Friday’s bearish behavior. All non-contrarian ETF’s have either buy/hold signals. That is desired consensus for bullish ambition.

 The near-term bull will not be considered as valid until Green is higher than buy price. Pressure, however is now, for the most part, in bullish domains.

As stated most of this past week, Force Vectors are bullishly mature. They should fall over the next few days. After making that statement the past few days, Force continues to move north. That is increasingly supporting bullish sustainability. Any bearish behavior on the near-term horizon should be interpreted as a mere stock market spurt. In others words, the bull may take a rest, while not acquiescing to the bear’s desire. The interpretation will invoke more seriousness if NTI bullish blue curve collapses.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Short-term Market Summary

The next bear signal will be quick if indices fall below the NTI Blue Curve with Force below Pressure and/or in bearish domains. Once NTI Green crosses above bull signal price, then next bear at NTI Green with weak Force/Pressure.

Most non-contrarian Force Vectors are at a cyclical maximum point, which could invite non-bullish to bearish behavior along the near-term cycle. Contrarian VIX Force Vector is at a minimum. This could invite VIX bullishness, but it will not receive a bull signal until Force climbs above Vector Pressure and/or into bullish domains. Bullish behavior last Wed and Thu offered argument to the preceding statements in this paragraph. That suggests the underlying near-term bull cycle is sustainable. Friday’s bearishness, though, supported the expected non-bullish behavior.

The market is configured similarly to this same time of year in 2009, where a mini-near-term bull cycle was followed by a mini-near-term bear cycle. In spite of disappointing economic news and Friday’s related bearish behavior is non-threatening to the current near-term bull signal.

Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for all major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 3.2% since their bull signals last Wednesday, June 28, annualizing at 131.3%.  Contrarian VIX is down 7.6% since its bear signal 1.3-weeks ago.

There were no new bull/bear signals by the Quick-term Indicant.

The Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for all major non-contrarian indices for an average of 39.8-weeks. They are up by an average of 22.3% since their bull signals, annualizing at 27.8%. The VIX is down 3.5% since the QTI signaled sell on June 30, 2011.

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. It fell back into low activity a few weeks later. However, lethargy is no longer accelerating, as normalcy with respect to summertime’s depressed volume is maturing. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains with some mild interest in gaining robustness.

Jul 8-Fri-Mild volume on sour economic news and related mild bearishness is no threat to the underlying near-term bull cycle.

Jul 7-Thu-Volume was up a bit on bullish behavior, supporting near-term bullish bias cycle.

Jul 6-Wed-Low summertime volume continues to not be disruptive to underlying short-term bullish bias.

Jul 5-Tue-Low volume during flat stock market behavior is not disruptive to prevailing short-term bullish bias.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated one buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 2.0% since their buy signals an average of 1.2-weeks ago. This annualizes at 86.2%.

The NTI is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down by an average of 3.1% since their sell signals an average of 1.2-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 25.3% since their buy signals an average of 43.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 29.9%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down by an average of 11.8% since the QTI sell signal an average of 5.4-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 1, 2011.  It is up 1.1% since that buy signal. Since Pressure is in bullish domains, consider setting stop loss to average of NTI Blue (74.39) and Green until such time Green (71.25) crosses above buy price (76.06). As you can see, NTI Blue continues to increase while NTI Green continues decreasing. So, each day, the  average does not change much. That will be the case until such time NTI Green starts increasing, which will require bullish sustainability.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 42.9%, annualizing at 52.2% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until interacting with QTI Yellow.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 86.3% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 33.1%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $134.75 and still rising. Relaxation is in order since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $150.25.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy this Friday, as Force penetrated bullish domains. (Gold did not actually increase in value. The dollar weakened on disappointing unemployment. Therefore, gold increased in U.S. dollars due to its weakness).

On Jun 29, 2011, The Indicant recommended call options. Shortly thereafter, gold dove to the south, reducing the value of those calls by over half. GLD’s bullish behavior shifted those “paper losses” to profit the past few days. This morning, those call options were sold for a nice 100% gain.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a sell signal last Wednesday from the Near-term Indicant. It is up 1.2% since the near-term sell signal on Jun 29, 2011. The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Jun 30, 2011. It is up 1.3% since then.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell this past Thursday for ETF#31-QID. Although it is configured for a rebound, risks are too high to hold since it moves exponentially to QQQ. It is down 6.8% since those sell signals. Its Force Vector is bearishly mature. Behavior over the next few days will be interesting, as its Force Vector should mount a bullish charge.

The Quick-term signaled sell on Apr 1, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. It is down 30.0% since that sell signal. It is down 3.7% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Jun 30, 2011. You should notice its Force Vector is moving north, but its Pressure remains in bearish domains.

Major ETF Events

Jul 8-Fri-Gold prices, in terms of weakening U.S. dollar, continue to rise.

Jul 7-Thu-The bull gathered yet more strength in the face of bullishly mature Force Vectors. The non-contrarians are expressing significant comfort at those lofty levels. That suggests bullish sustainability even if a minor bearish spurt occurs in the next few days.

Jul 6-Wed-Vector Pressure is now in bullish domains for all non-contrarian indices, except the S&P100 and NYSE. That reduces bearish threats with declining Force, which is impending.

Jul 5-Tue-No major events. It should be noted that Force Vectors are extraordinarily mature from their recent bullish cycle. The impending pullback will be interesting.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Jul 8, 2011. Vector Pressure is now in bullish domains. One of the concerns about this bullish cycle has been eliminated. Of interest now is stock market behavior with very high Force Vectors. If prices hold above NTI Blue with Blue continuing to increase, this near-term bull cycle could enjoy sustainability. Next week will be interesting.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Stock market bullish convergence was enjoyed last week for the second consecutive week. Two more weeks of similar behavior would indeed support bullish sustainability.

Indicant Conclusion

Technical support for stock market bearish behavior along the short-term cycle was mitigated by significant bullish the past two weeks.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions from last Christmas never produced significant increases in volume. Summertime volume will influence continuing lethargic volume behavior. That can incite additional volatility.

As stated the past 92-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle other than short-term attributes and this week’s Mid-term Indicant bear signal for the S&P100, which is now supporting bearish behavior.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation remains as an accurate descriptor of the current economy. Economic data continues offering evidence of souring activity. However, congressional and presidential budgetary failures this past week at raising the debit limit was profoundly bullish.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

07/10/2011

Jul 03, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 07, Issue 01 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Congressional and Presidential Debt Ceiling Failures Are Bullish

President Obama recently indicated a desire for congress to work on spending cuts in conjunction with elevating the debt ceiling with “balance.”

What is balance? Physically, it is simple. Two equally weighted people on opposite ends of a seesaw, once stabilized, will remain in elevated steady state. As stated many times in the past, observations of physical objects with reference to any argument can be reduced to no argument. Doing that requires significantly more talent than conveying abstract claims.

As stated many times before in this weekly report, abstract arguments are subjective and only those with limitations in real talent engage in such arguments. Math, by itself, is an abstract. 1+1 = 2 is an abstract. That expression of equalities, by itself, adds no economic value. However, it is an equation. All equations contain one solid property. That is, the values on both sides of the equal sign are the same.

Most real world problems are inequalities. That is, there is no equal sign in the algebraic expression. There is a greater-than or less-than algebraic sign, advising that the values on both sides of the expression are unequal. The problems have a bit of chance in solving if it is known that one side has more value than the other side. That way, one can then express whether the left hand side is more or less than the right hand side.

All optimization models are inequalities. After all, there is no point in trying to optimize equalities. Optimization modeling is multi-dimensional, while most problems in the calculus, algebra, and trigonometry disciplines are usually two dimensional but sometimes three. The more advanced linear programming and related models can contain several hundred dimensions. The human brain can only see three dimensions. Those who engage in multidimensional problem solving are not contained within the norms of IQ ranges. They are skewed to the right with most being above average, but some pushing genius.

Sensitivity analysis occurs once the optimizations are compiled. All that does is find out how much any combination of variables can change within the multidimensional planes without upsetting optimal conclusions. In other words, constraints against the objective function, that desires optimization, may change, but not enough to modify optimal conclusions.

In the next hundred years or so, most businesses will have optimized budget models. In other words, the objective function, maximizing profits, will be optimized based on the constraints against the objective function, which are expenses.

Most contemporary corporations use commonsense and/or goal driven desires in their budget preparations. Very few are capable of pursuing optimization modeling. Those that master it first will leave their competition in their dust, assuming capabilities of executing the varying constraints.

The result of managements’ efforts is operating income, cash flow, and a balance sheet. The balance sheet is the focal point here. It has the word, balance, in it. The left hand side of the balance sheet are assets. The right hand side is not so simple. It has two components. The first one is liabilities. The second component on the right hand side of the balance is net worth. It is referred to as shareholder equity for corporations. To keep things simple, here, assets minus liabilities equal net worth. Therefore, net worth is added to liabilities on the right hand side of the balance sheet. This is done, so both sides of the balance sheet are the same. To make the balance sheet balance, assets minus liabilities minus net worth equals zero.

Organizations with a very high net worth (or shareholder equity) content on their balances sheet have rising stock prices. If cash and other liquid assets continue feeding that net worth, those stock prices tend to move much higher and at a faster clip than those whose net worth is fed from more mysterious elements, such as operating income. Operating income is highly abstract and subject to manipulations. Variations between cash flow and operating income can highlight cheating. One has to put pencil and paper to work on such analyses.

Corporations who require long-term debt financing depress net worth. Avoid owning stocks in those corporations. Most of that sort of debt is not for growth, but for paying bonuses to dilettante management. General Motors used profound amounts of debt ahead of their bankruptcy. That eventually caught up to them. They never lowered the seven figured salaries of their dilettante management teams in the second half of last century. The more poised and successful investor will pay more attention to the balance sheet than the income statement. They also closely monitor the cash flow statement. Remember liquid assets should contribute significantly to net worth.

The current net worth of the United States government is around a negative $14-trillion or so. It projected to be at over $50-trillion within the next twenty or so years. In other words, there is no net worth in the U.S. government. That is because those with fiscal responsibilities do not use commonsense. Of course, all politicians are inflicted with OPM disease. OPM disease is other people’s money. They do not have fiscal goals. They certainly are nowhere near being capable of any optimization modeling. Any attempt at optimization would result in mathematical degeneration in the federal budgeting and spending processes. In other words, there has been no solution to problems in Washington D.C. That is because there are no constraints. It is impossible to solve problems without constraint identification. The model, as designed and practiced in Washington DC, will eventually collapse. An absence of constraint identification and management thereof is the ever-telling conclusion in all degenerate solutions.

We are all now on the same page with respect to the word, balance, from the seesaw, through a corporate balance sheet, through optimization, and finally through degeneration.

Balance suggests that if it is true that all men (and women) are created, equally, then all should pay the same amount of income tax. If the U.S. President wants balance, that is inarguably balanced; all pay the same amount of tax in absolute dollars. For example, all Americans between the ages of 21 and 65 pay the IRS, say $10,000, annually. Once attaining the age of 65, one does not have to pay taxes. However, if they do not have enough to retire on, they must get a job with the government. As a public servant, they would not have to pay income taxes. Of course, they would also lose voting rights and their salaries are auto set to one-third of the average wages in the wealth producing sectors; extraction, manufacturing, and agriculture.

Anyone not paying income tax should not be able to vote. Freedom costs money and lives. Those enjoying it without paying for it should go work for the government. Again, they would be public servants and endure the same omission of rights that most “servants” do. They cannot vote and their salaries are pegged at 33.3% of the private sector. Anyone who does not pay taxes and does not work the government will be imprisoned on farms where they will have to harvest their own food. They can be released from prison once they harvested enough to pay for their back taxes. The prison system and taxpayers will fund the seed offerings.

Once these sort of policies are set into place, one has some constraints identified. The threat of systemic degeneration becomes diminished. Abstract “balance” is now being replaced with physical balance. All arguments are reduced to ridiculous.

Unfortunately, the one recently asking for balance, President Obama, is requesting imbalance. That is, tax the rich folks more and the poor folks less. That is abstract balance (actually imbalanced) and obviates the common theme of any politician. Since there are more poor than rich, the most potential votes are among the poor. A significant number of poor are not that sharp. So, they are incapable of understanding their current levels of frustration will worsen even more when falling for that trick. Only the non-dumb can see through it.

Balance would mean the president’s family cannot spend $800,000 flying to and from Africa on a government equipment while those who fly on corporate jets are benefitting from tax breaks. Adding physical acts of irresponsibility (the president’s family flying to/from Africa at taxpayer expense) and an abstract claim that those jet-setting around on corporate jets are tax benefactors does not produce balance. The abstract claim is merely what roves around in a three-pound brain. There is no proof of that abstract claim. Rest assured small jet manufacturing will leave the U.S., just a yacht manufacturing did with the luxury tax in the early 1990’s, if the tax code is changed. If course, small jet can quickly be converted to military jets and thus a contributor to systemic degeneration in the U.S. economy and security. Remember, saving the spotted owl in Oregon and other timber-based economies only shifted massive extraction from Oregon to the emerald forests of South America. Regardless of political desires, the demand for specific physical objects will always overrule the simple-minded, suboptimal, and systemic degeneration of the political minds “abstract” thoughts and vote getting schema.

Balance would mean the president would earn his salary, as opposed to out raising funds for political campaigns.

Balance would mean you do not submit a budget last Feb with a 10% increase in spending without justifications for doing so. The president submitted a budget last Feb with irresponsible increases and has done nothing since then.

When a politician uses the word, balance, rest assured it is a twisted abstract within their three-pound brains, plastered with egotistical abnormalities. In essence, there is no balance. It is twisted to their advantage and your disadvantage. All of that invokes systemic degenerations.

However, in a positive note, Congress’ inability to raise the debt ceiling before holiday adjournment was profoundly bullish for the capital markets. Some would argue that debt-ceiling adjustment failures was not causative to last week’s explosive bullish behavior. In spite of that, though, the correlation is absolutely perfect. Historical norms suggest very clearly that causation to last week’s bullishness was presidential and congressional failures. A do nothing legislative and executive branch is generally bullish. The stock market bull rejoiced at political failures this past week. If Congress lowered the debt ceiling, as opposed to raising it, the Dow would set in its target at over 20,000 and possibly more depending on magnitude. That would be one of those situations where successful legislation would be bullish because it would constrain future legislation. Constraints, when recognized and properly managed, are a beautiful element of management.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

The largest NAS100 gainer was NAS#57-FSLR. It was up 14.2% last week. This stock has been struggling for several years. It is down 3.3% since the MTI buy signal last Oct.

The biggest N100 loser was NAS#91-VMED. It was down only 2.0% this past week. It is up 85.7% since the MTI buy signal in Nov 2009.

The largest Indicant Select gain last week was ITSK#53-EBAY. It was up 15.5%. It is up 35.2% since the MTI buy signal last September.

The biggest Indicant Select loser was ISTK#18-EK. It was down 10.2% last week. It is down 86.9% since the MTI sell signal in Nov 2007. This dog is down 95.9% from its all time high. Click here to see prior comment, regarding Eastman Kodak, on May 22, 2011. This stock makes this volatility listing quite a bit. Remember, the “do not fight the trend mantra.”

The best performing Dow30 stock this past week was DJIA#17-CAT. It was up 8.7%. It is up 109.3% since the MTI buy signal on Aug 7, 2009. None of the Dow30 stocks was down this past week.

The Dow Utilities did not experience very much volatile behavior last week. All were gainers.

Mutual Funds, however, endured some unusual volatility this past week. MF#40-FSESX enjoyed a 9.4% bounce last week. It is up 48.8% since the MTI buy signal last September.

Not surprisingly, the biggest loser in the mutual fund group was MF#22-USPIX. It was down 12.2%. It is down 77.3% since the MTI sell signal on April 3, 2009.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated seven buy signals and no sell signals.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 276 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 60.5%. That annualizes to 43.3%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 276-stocks and funds for an average of 72.6-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 52-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 26.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 78.2-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Jul 2, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 138-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 59.2-weeks. They were up by an average of 39.6% (annualized at 34.8%). There were 126-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 35.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 75.3-weeks earlier one year ago. There were 52-sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 19-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Jul 3, 2009. They were up by an average of 123.6% (annualized at 62.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of 103.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 290-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 29.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 53.5-weeks earlier. There were six buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued losing dominance at this time in 2009, as buy signals were nearing.

There were 105-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jun 27, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 177.1-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 254.5% (annualized at 74.7%). There were 185-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 17.9% from their respective sell signals an average of 24.1-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals on this weekend in 2008. There were 56-sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 306-sell signals in the prior 33-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008 and through the summer months. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the avoided stocks from late 2007 and early 2008 Mid-term Indicant sell signals remained with avoid signals during that “bullish spurt.”

On Jun 29, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 308-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 135.2% (annualized at 63.9%) since their buy signals an average of 110.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 31-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 15.6% since their sell signals an average of 29.6-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and five sell signal on this weekend in 2007. The Mid-term bull cycle was beginning to struggle at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies.

Five years ago, on Jun 30, 2006, there were 208-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 151.5% (annualized at 69.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 113.0-weeks earlier. There were 136-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 5.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 15.2-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid for the most part in 2006.

On Jul 1, 2005, there were 196-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 108.0%, annualizing at 58.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 95.7-weeks earlier. There were 112-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 26.4% since their sell signals an average of 60.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two-sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 257-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jul 2, 2004. They were up by an average of 68.9%, annualizing at 69.3%, since their buy signals 51.7-weeks earlier. The 35-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 30.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 45.1-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and one-sell signal on this weekend in 2004 in addition to 64-sell signals in the prior ten weeks. The meandering bear market was well underway at this time of year in 2004.

On Jul 4, 2003, there were 277-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 44.7% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 23.2-weeks earlier. That annualized at 100.2%. There were only 14-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 27.4% since their sell signals an average of 28.3-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were four buy signals in addition to 210-buy signals in the prior 15-weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was 19-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Jul 5, 2002, there were 66-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 41.0% since their buy signals an average of 44.6-weeks earlier. 217-stocks and funds were being avoiding since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 10.4-weeks earlier. There were six buy signals and five sell signals on this weekend in 2002 in addition to the 88-sell signals in the prior three weeks. The 2000-2002 stock market bear remained in full force at this time in 2002.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Most short-term attributes are now supporting the stock market bull along the near-term cycle. This all changed this past week with Congressional inabilities to raise the debt ceiling. The Quick-term bullish cycle remains in tact. Confrontations by the bear have been diminished. The only problem is Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains.

The Mid-term Indicant attributes supporting the stock market bull remain.

The mid-term election year of 2010 behaved classically pivoting in support of the normally bullish pre-election year (2011). This behavior correlated well with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemating. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish. Political hate mongering is favorable to the stock market bull and that is mounting as we approach the election year in 2012. That suggests the stock market bull will carry forward through 2012, which is consistent with historical norms.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 72.7% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 152.8% and the S&P500 is up 72,5% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 164.7% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011 in spite of recent bearishness and souring economic news. However, that can change, as Washington DC stupidity is far more reaching than historical standards suggest.

The NASDAQ is down 44.2% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 12.3% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 7.3% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser as the stock market has been flat to bearish for the last eleven years.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak. Look at the resumes of intellectual elites who argue against these points. You will detect they are pure economic leeches arguing on behalf of such regulations, which is a source of their livelihoods. None has ever produced anything of value.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 12.5% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 19.9%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. Interestingly, the NASDAQ was explosively bullish on this week in 2001 in addition to the prior two weeks.

The NASDAQ was down by 28.0% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 22.8%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 0.6% and finishing up for that year by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was down 5.4% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was down by 1.5% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 7.8% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 13.1% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 17.0% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was down 7.4% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 11.2% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 1.5% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 14.4% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak.

The S&P600-small cap index is up by 1.5% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 this past week. That is the second time this year such accomplishment has been enjoyed.

The NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is again above those levels by 5.5% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400-MidCaps is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that remains above its pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 7.4% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. The S&P600 again joined the ranks of these successes this past week. The NASDAQ jumped above its Oct 31, 2007 peak on Apr 29, 2011, but expressed discomfort in doing so and is down 1.5% since that peak. However, it gained by a significant amount this past week.

The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 18.4% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks from 2007 and 2000. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow30, Dow Composites and the S&P500 remain joined with the weak S&P100 Index. Those dilettante infested companies may participate more strongly with the stock market bull in spite of that infestation. Until the Dow crosses above its pre-crash peak, the Dow Theory Forecast remains bearish.

Most major last cyclical bottoms occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 92.2% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 122.0% and the S&P500 is up 98.0% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 148.6% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Of course, such bearishness will eventually occur, but the Mid-term Indicant finds limited evidence of that on the immediate horizon.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. It takes awhile for the newly elected to follow their paths of corruption and learn the ease of spending other people’s money. The stock market bull takes advantage during such phenomena. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull at this time. A potential of defaults by Greece and others, promoting and catering to laziness, add to threats to the stock market bull.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets both free and controlled are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As promised by Bernanke, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. The three-month continues yielding zero as of late this past Thursday evening. CD’s remain a joke. Who would buy them?

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 24-weeks ago. It is a Red Bull, but still troubled with weaknesses a few weeks ago.

The Canadian dollar and the Japanese Yen remain strong.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to be challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. However, statistical bullishness for gold remains in tact along the mid-term cycle; albeit in a bit of short-term trouble. It is need of some cooling. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild bearish bias. It became a yellow bear this week, based on political manipulations.

Commodity prices continue with dynamic bullish aggression. Most have fallen of their recent record highs due to souring economic forecast. Some are no longer Red Bulls, but that is temporary. Their potential contribution to inflationary pressures remains absent. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are no longer Red Bulls.  

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures is again waffling, but remaining well above the bullish Red Curve.

Commodity prices, overall, were bearish in eight of the last nine weeks. Do not be surprised at a bullish surge when they interact with the bullish Red Curve. Some have already done that, but all of them will have to do that before exciting the commodities bull. That will also require the U.S. dollar’s resumption of its bearish slide.

Mortgage rates are moving bearishly.   They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. Interestingly, they are enjoying a mild bounce off bearish Yellow Curve.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable. That should change in the next few months.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 11.5%, annualizing at 14.4% since then. As stated ten weeks ago, the Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold. However, the Short-term Indicant is detecting increasing bearish interest in gold.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 is up 3.0% since the MTI sell signal last weekend. There is no point in holding this poorly performing fund.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 29.4%, annualized at 36.9% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 48.8%, annualized at 61.2%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 25.7% since then, annualizing at 34.7%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 43.7% since that buy signal, annualizing at 54.8%.

The Quick-term signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 41.4% since then, annualizing at 51.6%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy this past Friday. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 79.7% since that buy signal, annualizing at 30.8%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled sell this past Friday.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were one new bull signals and no new bear signals. The bull signal was for the S&P100 Index, which reversed last week’s bear signal.

The remaining nine major indices are up by an average of 33.4% since their bull signals an average of 67.2-weeks ago. That annualizes at 25.9%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $33,000,040. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,914,312 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $158,323. That beats buy and hold’s $131,224 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $240,870. That beats buy and hold’s $97,643 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 77.3% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund. The Short-term Indicant signaled sell for QID this past week and thus losing short-term support for its bullishness.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 334.7% (annualized at 17.0%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,026-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

The near-term bullish cycle continues to impress. All non-contrarian ETF’s have either buy/hold signals. That is desired consensus.

There are a couple of concerns. Pressure remains in bearish domains for most of the non-contrarian ETF’s. The near-term bull will not be considered as valid until Green is higher than buy price.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Short-term Market Summary

The stock market bull is gaining traction along the near-term cycle.

The next bear signal will be quick if indices fall below the NTI Blue Curve with Force below Pressure and/or in bearish domains.

Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for all major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 2.6% since their bull signals last Wednesday.  Contrarian VIX is down 8.2% since last Wednesday’s bear signal.

There were no new bull/bear signals by the Quick-term Indicant.

The Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for all major non-contrarian indices for an average of 38.6-weeks. They are up by an average of 20.5% since their bull signals, annualizing at 27.5%. The VIX is down 3.9% since the QTI signaled sell this past Thursday.

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. It fell back into low activity a few weeks later. However, lethargy is no longer accelerating, as normalcy with respect to summertime’s depressed volume is maturing. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains with some mild interest in gaining robustness.

Jul 1-Fri-Low volume again, but as stated yesterday, this bull’s aggression along the near-term cycle is too impressive to ignore.

Jun 30-Thu-Light volume again, but the stock market’s bullish aggression offers potential follow-on.

Jun 29-Wed-Volume, while still depressed, increased on mild bullishness. It remains suspicious. Wall Street now in workforce reduction process. That is not a bullish tactic.

Jun 28-Tue-Light volume, again. In spite of bullish aggression, low volume bullish behavior should always be viewed with suspicion.

Jun 27-Mon-Lighter volume on bullish aggression, compared to mildly heavier volume on last Friday’s bearish aggression, supports mild favoritism to the near-term bear cycle.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated four buy signals and one sell signal, as the bull continues gaining dominance along the near-term cycle.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 1.8% since their buy signals an average of 0.2-weeks ago. This annualizes at 440.6%.

The NTI is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down by an average of 2.6% since their sell signals an average of 0.2-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 24.5% since their buy signals an average of 42.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 29.6%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down by an average of 11.3% since the QTI sell signal an average of 4.4-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy this past Friday.  A stop loss at NTI Blue is recommended until such time Pressure climbs into bullish domains.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 41.4%, annualizing at 51.6% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until interacting with QTI Yellow.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 79.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 30.8%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $134.34 and still rising. Relaxation is in order since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $144.93.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell this Friday. It was not bullish on Friday’s overall bullish stock market. It violated a high probability of a bullish bounce off of NTI Green. If the newly evolving stock market bull along the near-term cycle, there will be a solid bullish bounce. This ETF is bearish on money rotating out of commodities and into equities. It will quickly reverse if the appeal of equities sours.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a sell signal last Wednesday from the Near-term Indicant. It is down 0.7% since yesterday’s near-term sell signal. The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell this past Thursday. It is down 0.5% since then.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell this pastThursday for ETF#31-QID. Although it is configured for a rebound, risks are too high to hold since it moves exponentially to QQQQ. It is down 3.1% since those sell signals.

The Quick-term signaled sell on Apr 1, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. It is down 30.3% since that sell signal. It is down 4.0% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell this past Thursday.

Major ETF Events

Jul 1-Fri-Again, more buy signals as the near-term bullish cycle continues to dominate.

Jun 30-Thu-There were several more buy signals even though Vector Pressure remains low.

Jun 29-Wed-Several “low Pressure” buy signals were triggered by the Near-term Indicant. Several others are nearing qualifications for buying. The low Pressure is pestering a bit.

Jun 28-Tue-Two consecutive days of bullish aggression have not shifted enough near-term attributes away from their support of the near-term bear cycle.

Jun 27-Mon-If the bull and bear were matter, they would be enduring consumption by anti-matter. There is absolutely no energy supporting bull and an infinitesimal amount supporting bear. Therefore, the bear has an edge.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Jul 1, 2011. The Near-term Indicant signaled bull for major indices and buy signals for nearly all non-contrarian ETF’s. Vector Pressure remains negative (bearish), though. With that, the next bear/sell signals will occur when Price falls below Blue and Force falls below Pressure or into bearish domains. In other words, until NTI Green climbs above bull/buy prices, sell/bear signals will occur more quickly than normal.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Stock market bullish convergence was enjoyed last week. That follows five consecutive weeks of combined bearish convergence and divergence. Three more weeks of similar behavior would indeed support bullish sustainability.

Indicant Conclusion

Technical support for stock market bearish behavior along the short-term cycle was mitigated by significant bullish this past week. The near-term cycle shifted in support of the bull this past week

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions never produced significant increases in volume. Summertime volume will influence continuing lethargic volume behavior. That can incite additional volatility.

As stated the past 91-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle other than short-term attributes and this week’s Mid-term Indicant bear signal for the S&P100, which is now supporting bearish behavior.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation remains as an accurate descriptor of the current economy even though economic data continues offering evidence of souring activity. However, congressional and presidential budgetary failures this past week at raising the debit limit was profoundly bullish.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

07/03/2011

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