June Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Updates

June 30, 2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 06, Issue 21 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

Today's Report

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Two of thirty. Zero non-contrarian red bulls; thorough non-bullish attribute.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twenty-one of thirty. Non-bearish support non-existent with majority yellow bears.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is bearish 11.1%. Solid bearish support.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential is bearish 8.2%; solid bearish support.

Force Vectors: Favoring bearish behavior, although the cycle is mature.

Vector Pressure: Four in bullish domains, offering no resistance to bearish aggression.

STI Tangential Support: All major indices are without tangential protection. Bear can roam at free will.

Immediate Tactics: Avoid all non-contrarian ETF’s. Set QID stop losses at $42.50.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bearish with an increasing probability of bullish argument to bearish ambition, but non-threatening to bearish dominance.

Overall Market Status: Solid bearish bias.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is more common during bearish cycles, which is the current configuration.

Volume: Losing lethargy, which is inconsistent with seasonal behavior and thus even more bearish.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

To view the STI-Tangential Protection for ten major indices, click here.

As stated the past several days/weeks, all major indices continue with bearish configurations. Bearish yellow is cycling south. Force Vectors are in bearish domains. Vector Pressure is in bearish domains. None have tangential protection against bearish ambition.

Last Thursday’s market endured bearish synergy with all major indices succumbing to dynamic bearish aggressions. Although Friday’s bearish behavior was mild, it was a continuation of expressing the unrelenting ambition of the bear. The market is forecasting recession or inflation or both.

As stated the past few days, the STI-Tangential model will not signal bull until Force Vectors are higher than X and the index is higher than Red. This feature reduces fluttering. Configurations are nowhere near signaling bull.

Consider any bullish expressions as contrarian spurts to the underlying bearish trend and cycle.

However, the NASDAQ, NASDAQ100, S&P400, and S&P600 have yet to produce this bearish result. They made a giant leap forward with dynamic bearish aggression the past few days.

From June 19, 2008 Daily Stock Market Report. There is an 80% probability the NASDAQ will fall below 2330 in this bearish cycle from 2462 or by 6.6%. It closed below 2330 last week at 2315.

From June 20, 2008 Daily Stock Market Report-There is a 59% probability the NAS100 will fall below 1774 or by 8.0% from this date. The S&P400 has a 63% probability of falling below 817 or by another 4.4%. The April 28, 2008 Daily Stock Market Reported stated, there was a 97% probability the S&P600 would be below its early April values and repeated in the May 4, 2008 Weekly Stock Market Report. On April 9, 2008, the S&P600 closed at 363.99. In the ensuing Short-term Bull cycle, it peaked at 401.93 for a 10.4% gain. Although the Indicant does not do forecasting, the Reverse Tangential line (declining green line) suggests the S&P600 will fall back below its April 9 closing of 363.99 at some future point. Recent daily reports indicated it was unknown if the future point will occur in the current bear cycle underway or in 2009. Such a prognosis, regardless of timing, suggests there is no meaningful or sustainable bull market on the foreseeable horizon.

As of June 30, 2008, the S&P600 closed at 365.03 are within a point of this prognosis of eventually dipping below 363.99. The S&P400 closed at 818.99 today or within two points of the prognosis of falling below 817. The NASDAQ100 closed at 1837.09 today. It still has plenty of room to fall, along with the NASDAQ, which is very close to falling below the horizontal green line.

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on May 20, 2008 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and on May 21, 2008, for the NASDAQ. The Short-term Indicant is influenced, in part, by historical seasonality, which has become too popular to be effective. It will eventually be replaced by the more esoteric tangential model. The Dow is down 11.5% and the NASDAQ is down 6.3% since their respective bear signals. As stated the past several days, the bear has moved from having a tactical advantage to a position of dominance.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

As stated in the June 25, 2008-Wednesday daily stock market report, both Indicant Volume Indicators are configuring robustly and in support of bearish bias.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for five-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 41.8% (annualized at 14.4%) since their respective buy signals an average of 149.7-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding 26-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 6.9% since their sell signals an average of 5.4-weeks ago.

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only nine years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for five-ETF’s. They are up an average of 305.1% (annualized 105.0%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 149.4-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there are 26-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 7.3% since their sell signals an average of 5.7-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for four-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 76.6% (annualized at 45.8%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 86.0-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 27-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 6.9% since their sell signals an average of 4.4-weeks ago.

Current Strategy – No change. All major indices do not have tangential support. Most are yellow bears. Any bullish expressions should be viewed as bullish spurts in the face of bearish trend and bearish cyclicality. However, several of the ETF’s, including a few of the non-contrarians, are not possessing increasing bearish attributes. Some of them will not go down with a bear market.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

A solid bearish bias originated on Thursday, June 12, 2008, with all major indices without tangential support. From all three Indicant models, there are a combined 11-hold signals and 79-avoid signals for ETF’s and thus with a significant bearish bias.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Click the above heading to view the charts.

Twenty-one of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by 2.7%. This is without non-bearish support and with bearish support.

Two ETF’s are above their bullish red curves. This attribute remains solidly non-bullish. All thirty ETF average positions are below bullish red by an average of 8.4%. which is non-bullish.

The two Red Bulls are contrarian, ETF#03-Natural Resources and ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals. It only takes one non-contrarian red bull to stifle dynamic bearish behavior. As stated the past few days, none exist. The bear is currently dominating.

The QTI differential is bearish by 11.1%. This is the fifteenth consecutive trading day of a bearish reading.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines, which is no longer providing bullish support.

The average distance from breakout contact is 18.0%. Double digit variances from breakout contact for 122-consecutive trading-days has been non-bullish.

Six of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines, which is bearish. This is the seventh consecutive day with breakdown contact, offering further support for an ambitious bear.

The average distance between the price and breakdown is 9.8%. After providing non-bearish support since March 2003, this is the third consecutive trading day of non-double digit reading, which is bearish. As stated the past few days, configurations are forming similar to those in the early stages of the 2001-02 bear market. As stated the past few days, emotional bearishness can become influential regardless of fundamental reason with a single digit reading. Unfortunately, fundamental factors are also supportive of the bear.

The breakout/breakdown differential is bearish by 8.2%. This is solidly supporting bearish ambition.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

Two Force Vectors are in bullish domains, which is non-bullish. As stated the past few days, their configurations support bearish bias.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There was one put option buy signal after Monday’s close.

ETF#3-Energy was slightly bullish today, which was not the desired behavior for Friday’s call option. However, ETF#11-Gold was slightly bearish today, but not dramatically enough to get a call option at deeply discounted pricing.

Four of the thirty ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. This minority position is not supportive of any bullish inclination. It is now configured with solid bearish support.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

A solid new bearish bias shift was born today, June 11, 2008.

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. It is excluded from overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This exclusion is required for convergent/divergent monitoring.

The Indicant signaled buy for QID on June 11, 2008. It is up by 8.3% since then. Its Force Vector remains bullish. Its Vector Pressure crossed into bullish domains last Wednesday. Configurations continue supporting bullish expectations for this ETF. The buy signal was premature, but committed. If the market shifts to bullish bias, this ETF will receive a quick sell signal. Keep in mind its behavior is exponential to market behavior.

Other Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources - is up 55.2% (annualized at 32.4%) since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 25, 2006. It has been bullish the past two days. It remains in a perfect holding pattern for those of you who bought in late 2006. It is a Red Bull. Bearish expressions are mere spurts.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 109.9% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2005. It is annualizing at 37.2%. It was bearish today following two solidly bullish days. It is a red bull but having some difficulty with its comfort there.

ETF#14-Long Government is up 0.6% since the May 5, 2008 sell signal. Its Vector Pressure remains inside bearish domains. It’s Force Vector is deep inside bullish domains. Do not be surprised at a pullback. The configuration remains weak, but improving. It was flat today. The Quick-term Indicant will signal buy as soon as its Vector Pressure crosses into bullish domains and possibly after Force Vectors go through at least one bearish cycle. This fund has some strategic risk. The dollar’s weakness and inflationary threats will eventually stimulate increased interest rates. With that, this fund, fundamentally, would endure bearish behavior. The contrarian movement to that fundamental prognosis would be high demand for safety purposes, depending on the nature of economic behavior. Do not be surprised at jawboning the dollar up, but the U.S. remains a net-importer and thus the continual downward pressure on the dollar, which fundamentally supports long-term upward pressure on interest rates.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Short-term Indicant for Tangential Analysis

Happy Investing,

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

06/30/08

June 27, 2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 06, Issue 20 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

Today's Report

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Two of thirty. Zero non-contrarian red bulls; thorough non-bullish attribute.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twenty-one of thirty. Non-bearish support non-existent with majority yellow bears.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is bearish 11.2%. Solid bearish support.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential is bearish 8.3%; solid bearish support.

Force Vectors: Favoring bearish behavior.

Vector Pressure: Five in bullish domains. After holding steady with bullish support since early April, this attribute continues to wane in that support. It is with minority support, which is increasingly non-bullish. It is offering no resistance to bearish aggression.

STI Tangential Support: All major indices are without tangential protection. Bear can roam at free will.

Immediate Tactics: Buy signals for non-contrarian ETF’s will be limited with the bearish bias now underway. Sell signals for the most part are nearing completion. There are just a few more non-contrarian ETF’s expressing obstinate behavior to bearish influence, but those final few, which were longer term hold positions were sold last Thursday.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bearish.

Overall Market Status: Solid bearish bias.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility should be expected until all bearish yellow curves are sloping bearishly. Utilities are now succumbing to bearish pressure.

Volume: Losing lethargy, which is inconsistent with seasonal behavior and thus even more bearish.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

To view the STI-Tangential Protection for ten major indices, click here.

The two large caps, S&P100 and S&P500, are the weaker indices with both contacting their respective breakdown lines. Such configurations suggest a recession with sector breadth. In other words rather than isolated rolling recessionary behavior in specific sectors, the stock market is projecting little immunity.

From May 4, 2008-Weekly Stock Market Report – At that time there was a 97% probability the major indices and most of the non-contrarian ETF’s would be below their early April values at some future point. (As you can now see, most have done that during the month of June 2008). However, the NASDAQ, NASDAQ100, S&P400, and S&P600 have yet to produce this bearish result. They made a giant leap forward with dynamic bearish aggression the past few days. Although unsettling, it was good to know this weeks before it occurred.

From June 19, 2008 Daily Stock Market Report. There is an 80% probability the NASDAQ will fall below 2330 in this bearish cycle from 2462 or by 6.6%. It closed below 2330 this past week at 2315.

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on May 20, 2008 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and on May 21, 2008, for the NASDAQ. The Short-term Indicant is influenced, in part, by historical seasonality, which has become too popular to be effective. It will eventually be replaced by the more esoteric tangential model. The Dow is down 11.6% and the NASDAQ is down 6.4% since their respective bear signals. As stated the past several days, the bear has moved from having a tactical advantage to a position of dominance.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

As stated in last Wednesday’s daily stock market report, both Indicant Volume Indicators are configuring robustly and in support of bearish bias.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for five-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 41.4% (annualized at 14.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of 149.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding 26-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 6.9% since their sell signals an average of 4.9-weeks ago.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for five-ETF’s. They are up an average of 302.5% (annualized 104.4%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 149.0-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there are 26-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 7.2% since their sell signals an average of 5.3-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for four-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 75.3% (annualized at 45.3%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 85.5-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 27-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 6.9% since their sell signals an average of 3.9-weeks ago.

From June 25, 2008 Daily Stock Market Report- (Today’s) mild bullish behavior was significant. The first half of the day was indeed bullish ahead of the Federal Reserve Board’s announced “no change” in policy or interest rates. The economy will need to improve on its own merits. An improving economy, coupled with high oil prices, will be inflationary. That is the big problem confronting the bulls. Significant bullishness throughout the day waned in the final hour of trading, netting a nearly flat day. The dual threat by inflation and recession is fundamental cause supportive of bearish behavior. Continue to consider bullish expressions as mere spurts in the face of bearish trend and cycle.

From June 26 25, 2008 Daily Stock Market Report- (Today’s) bearish aggression fomented additional bearish configurations, suggesting this Short-term Bear cycle will be sustainable and rather deep.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Click the above heading to view the charts.

Twenty-one of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by 2.8%. This is without non-bearish support and with bearish support.

Two ETF’s are above their bullish red curves. This attribute remains solidly non-bullish. All thirty ETF average positions are below bullish red by 8.5%. which is non-bullish.

The QTI differential is bearish by 11.2%. This is the fourteenth consecutive trading day of a bearish reading.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines, which is no longer providing bullish support.

The average distance from breakout contact is 18.0%. Double digit variances from breakout contact for 121-consecutive trading-days has been non-bullish.

Eight of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines, which is bearish. This is the sixth consecutive day with breakdown contact, offering further support for an ambitious bear.

The average distance between the price and breakdown is 9.7%. After providing non-bearish support since March 2003, this is the second consecutive trading day of non-double digit reading, which is bearish. As stated the past few days, configurations are forming similar to those in the early stages of the 2001-02 bear market. As stated the past few days, emotional bearishness can become influential regardless of fundamental reason with a single digit reading. Unfortunately, fundamental factors are also supportive of the bear.

The breakout/breakdown differential is bearish by 8.3%. This is solidly supporting bearish ambition.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

Three Force Vectors are in bullish domains, which is non-bullish. As stated the past few days, their configurations support bearish bias.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were two call option buy signals after Friday’s close. Both are for contrarian ETF’s, numbers 3 and 11, Energy and Gold respectively. It is more difficult to trade such options as the broader market indices are not participative in the process. Contrarian securities tend to march to their own cadence.

As stated in Thursday’s daily stock market report, we did not get the bullish spurt to accommodate Thursday’s put option buy signals.

Five of the thirty ETF Vector Pressures are in bullish domains. This minority position is not supportive of any bullish inclination. It is now configured with solid bearish support.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

A solid new bearish bias shift was born today, June 11, 2008.

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracks ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It is excluded from overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets. This exclusion is required for convergent/divergent monitoring.

The Indicant signaled buy for QID on June 11, 2008. It is up by 6.0% since then. Its Force Vector remains bullish. Its Vector Pressure crossed into bullish domains last Wednesday, which could invoke an unfavorable response. There was a minor one incurred on Friday. However, as stated yesterday, configurations continue supporting bullish expectations for this ETF. The buy signal was premature, but committed. If the market shifts to bullish bias, this ETF will receive a quick sell signal. Keep in mind its behavior is exponential to market behavior.

Other Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources - is up 53.5% (annualized at 31.5%) since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 25, 2006. After bearish expressions the past three days, it was bullish on Friday. It remains in a perfect holding pattern for those of you who bought in late 2006. It is a Red Bull. Bearish expressions are mere spurts.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 110.2% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2005. It is annualizing at 37.4%. It was solidly bullish the past two days. It is setting up nicely for continued bullish behavior.

ETF#14-Long Government is up 0.6% since the May 5, 2008 sell signal. Its Vector Pressure remains inside bearish domains. Its Force Vector crossed above yellow last Wednesday. The configuration remains weak, but improving. It has been bullish the past three days. The Quick-term Indicant will signal buy as soon as its Vector Pressure crosses into bullish domains and possibly after Force Vectors go through at least one bearish cycle. This fund has some strategic risk. The dollar’s weakness and inflationary threats will eventually stimulate increased interest rates. With that, this fund, fundamentally, would endure bearish behavior. The contrarian movement to that fundamental prognosis would be high demand for safety purposes, depending on the nature of economic behavior. Do not be surprised at jawboning the dollar up, but the U.S. remains a net-importer and thus the continual downward pressure on the dollar, which fundamentally supports long-term upward pressure on interest rates.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Short-term Indicant for Tangential Analysis

Happy Investing,

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

06/27/08

June 26, 2008 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 06, Issue 19 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

Today's Report

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: One of thirty. Zero non-contrarian; thorough non-bullish attribute.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twenty-one of thirty. Non-bearish support non-existent with majority yellow bears.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: QTI differential is bearish 11.1%. Solid bearish support.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Breakout/breakdown differential is bearish 8.2%; solid bearish support.

Force Vectors: Favoring bearish behavior.

Vector Pressure: Four in bullish domains. After holding steady with bullish support since early April, this attribute continues to wane in that support. It is with minority support, which is increasingly non-bullish. It is offering no resistance to bearish aggression.

STI Tangential Support: All major indices are without tangential protection. Bear can roam at free will.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bearish.

Overall Market Status: Solid bearish bias.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility should be expected until all bearish yellow curves are sloping bearishly. Utilities are resisting bearish ambition, but weakening.

Volume: Losing lethargy, which is inconsistent with seasonal behavior and thus even more bearish.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

To view the STI-Tangential Protection for ten major indices, click here.

As stated the past several days/weeks, all major indices continue with bearish configurations. Bearish yellow is cycling south. Force Vectors are in bearish domains. None have tangential protection against bearish ambition.

Today’s market endured bearish synergy with all major indices succumbing to dynamic bearish aggressions. Rallies and lateral movements in some indices were obliterated with today’s bearish expression. The market is forecasting recession or inflation or both.

From June 19, 2008 Daily Stock Market Report. There is an 80% probability the NASDAQ will fall below 2330 in this bearish cycle from 2462 or by 6.6%. (It fell by one-half that amount today).

From June 20, 2008 Daily Stock Market Report-There is a 59% probability the NAS100 will fall below 1774 or by 8.0% from this date. The S&P400 has a 63% probability of falling below 817 or by another 4.4%. The April 28, 2008 Daily Stock Market Reported stated, there was a 97% probability the S&P600 would be below its early April values and repeated in the May 4, 2008 Weekly Stock Market Report. On April 9, 2008, the S&P600 closed at 363.99. In the ensuing Short-term Bull cycle, it peaked at 401.93 for a 10.4% gain. Although the Indicant does not do forecasting, the Reverse Tangential line (declining green line) suggests the S&P600 will fall back below its April 9 closing of 363.99 at some future point. It is unknown if the future point will occur in the current bear cycle underway or in 2009. Such a prognosis, regardless of timing, suggests there is no meaningful or sustainable bull market on the foreseeable horizon.

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear on May 20, 2008 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and on May 21, 2008, for the NASDAQ. The Short-term Indicant is influenced, in part, by historical seasonality, which has become too popular to be effective. It will eventually be replaced by the more esoteric tangential model. The Dow is down 10.7% and the NASDAQ is down 6.7% since their respective bear signals. As stated the past several days, the bear has moved from having a tactical advantage to a position of dominance.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

As stated in yesterday’s daily stock market report, both Indicant Volume Indicators are configuring robustly and in support of bearish bias.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and three sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for five-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 45.6% (annualized at 15.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 149.1-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signals, the SQI is avoiding 23-ETF’s at this time. They are down by an average of 7.4% since their sell signals an average of 5.4-weeks ago.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and two sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for five-ETF’s. They are up an average of 299.4% (annualized 103.4%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 148.9-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signals, there are 24-ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down by an average of 7.5% since their sell signals an average of 5.6-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and three sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for four-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 74.1% (annualized at 44.6%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 85.4-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 24-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 7.4% since their sell signals an average of 4.4-weeks ago.

From June 25, 2008 Daily Stock Market Report- Today’s mild bullish behavior was significant. The first half of the day was indeed bullish ahead of the Federal Reserve Board’s announced “no change” in policy or interest rates. The economy will need to improve on its own merits. An improving economy, coupled with high oil prices, will be inflationary. That is the big problem confronting the bulls. Significant bullishness throughout the day waned in the final hour of trading, netting a nearly flat day. The dual threat by inflation and recession is fundamental cause supportive of bearish behavior. Continue to consider bullish expressions as mere spurts in the face of bearish trend and cycle.

From June 26 25, 2008 Daily Stock Market Report- Today’s bearish aggression fomented additional bearish configurations, suggesting this Short-term Bear cycle will be sustainable and rather deep.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

A solid bearish bias originated on Thursday, June 12, 2008, with all major indices without tangential support. From all three Indicant models, there are a combined 11-hold signals and 72-avoid signals for ETF’s and thus with a significant bearish bias.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Click the above heading to view the charts.

Twenty-one of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. This is bearish. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is below bearish yellow by 2.7%. This is now without non-bearish support.

Only one ETF is above its bullish red curve. This attribute is now solidly non-bullish. All thirty ETF average positions are below bullish red by 8.4%. which is non-bullish.

The lone Red Bull is contrarian, ETF#03-Natural Resources. It only takes one non-contrarian red bull to stifle dynamic bearish behavior. As stated the past few days, none exist. The bear is currently dominating.

The QTI differential is bearish by 11.1%. This is the thirteenth consecutive trading day of a bearish reading.