June 29, 2003 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 06, Issue 5 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Weekly Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated one buy signal and fifteen sell signals for stocks and funds. All of the sell signals were limited to stocks. There will be more about that later.

In addition to the sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding only three stocks and funds. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 26.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 27.6 weeks ago. The avoided stocks and funds contrast with one year ago when the Indicant was avoiding 213 stocks and funds for an average of 10.0 weeks. Those stocks and funds were down 17.6% then. One year ago, the market enjoyed a technical rebound to the north in the face of a severe bear market, but there was few buy signals, as that rebound was fake.

In addition to the buy signal, the Indicant is signaling hold for 277 of the 296 stocks and funds currently tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 42.6%. That annualizes to 99.7%, which is down from 124.1% three weeks ago, but up from 50.2% twenty weeks ago. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these stocks and funds for an average of 22.2 weeks. The stocks/funds with hold signals contrast significantly from one year ago when the Indicant was signaling hold for only seventy-one stocks. At that time, the Mid-term Indicant was holding those few stocks for an average of 40.4 weeks. They were up 39.9% (annualized at 51.3%).

This paragraph is repeated from last week because some of you get distracted with summer time activities. We want to make certain you understand this. The mid-term election year phenomenon found the market bottom, right on cue in 2002. The pre-election year phenomenon, which is most bullish years on the presidential election cycle, continues taking hold this year. The following link will take you to charts that explain this phenomenon, which is currently underway and for you to enjoy. It is in a “members only” section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0100.htm

Make certain you read the entire page on the above link. You will see there are exceptions. So far, this year does not appear to be an exception. Although the current bull market is resting, stocks and funds are in excellent position for you to continue holding. The sell signals this weekend are disappointing, but the market is not going to go up on a straight line. The weaker stocks tend to move south earlier and the depth of their drop is unknown. That is why the Indicant signaled sell. There is no need to hold and “wish and hope.” Too many other stocks and funds are doing extremely well.

The small investor has yet to enter the market. They are still setting on the sidelines. As the stock market makes the general news more frequently, more will jump and that will drive the market higher to the north. That will cause the media to report market activity more frequently and more and more small investors will continue to enter. Eventually, the market will peak and on the way down, even more investors will jump in only to be burned again. The Indicant will keep you posted.

Stop Loss Management

Stop losses remain loosened at 8% since this Quick-term Bull is the strongest and longest lasting Quick-term Bull since late 1999. It is just as important to contact your broker and enter stop losses as it is in buying and selling. We are now into the six-month period of bearish seasonality, but so far, the pre-presidential election year phenomenon is overruling. The summer doldrums are about to kick in. Will it be a nasty correction to the south or subtle lateral movements with a general drift to the southeast? So far, it appears to be the latter.

Use either an 8% trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 8% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 15% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism. Keep your eye on lavish spending. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds in those “bearish” conditions. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report. The magnitude of any bull legs is not as strong during bearish seasonal periods, which began on May 1, 2003. The phenomenon of the bullishness inherent in presidential pre-election years is currently over-powering bearish seasonality.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

In the past, we have included the stocks and funds with buy and sell signals in this preliminary report. To maintain appropriate security, you can now see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds by clicking the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information can be found from a single page in the web site.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them to the website.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

The eight major indexes are up an average of 14.5% since the Quick-term Bull signal on March 17, 2003. That annualizes to 51.2%, which is down from last week’s 61.2%. The Dow30 is the weakest Quick-term Bull. It is up 10.4% since the QT Bull signal on March 17, 2003. The strongest bull remains the S&P600. It is up 20.2% (annualized at 71.4%, which is down from last week’s 76.9%) since the Quick-term Bull signal on March 17, 2003.

Last week, all eight major indexes were red bulls. They were above the bullish red curve by an average of 1.0%. Now, the only red bull is the S&P600 Index. It is above the bullish red curve by only 0.1%. The remaining seven indexes are below the bullish red curve. All eight combined are below the bullish red curve by an average of 1.4%. All eight indexes are above the bearish yellow curve by 4.1%, which is down from last week’s 7.7%. The combined weakness in the market and the increasing yellow curve has narrowed the gap to potential yellow bear status. Keep in mind that as long as the yellow curve is rising, the comfort zone in your hold positions is wide and solid.

The current Quick-term Bull is now over three-months old. At this time last year, we were enduring one of the longest Quick-term Bear markets on record, which lasted from April through August 2002. Now, the reverse condition exists. As stated last week it is unlikely this Quick-term Bear will live to see August. However, and as usual, we will wait until the Quick-term Indicant signals bear. There is no need to forecast.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The Indicant Volume Indicator continues to cool off. The robust cycle on the NASDAQ’s Indicant Volume Indicator was one of the more robust cycles since the huge sell off in 2000 and after September 11, 2001. The increasing market during this robust cycle is a testament of the strength of this underlying bull. Many of the stocks you bought last October/November and again in March 2003 should continue maintaining hold positions throughout this year and next. Depending on the magnitude of this bull, some of your stocks should enjoy some splits along the way and propel prices to new heights.

To view the Indicant Volume Indicator, please click the following hyperlink.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The Short-term Indicant Bulls are up a combined 6.7%, which annualizes to 63.3%. That is down from last week’s annualized gain of 99.5%. As previously stated the Short-term Bulls should be short-lived. The summer doldrums will most likely convert them to bears in the immediate future. Remember; do not worry about a volatile Short-term Indicant over the next few months.

The Dow’s Short-term Bull is up 5.5%, annualized at 53.3% and down from last week’s 94.6%. The NASDAQ’s Short-term Bull is up 7.8%, annualizing at 77.0% and down from last weeks annualized gain of 110.7%.

The Dow30 and NASDAQ Short-term Bulls are 38 and 37 days old, respectively. The average bull/bear cycle for the Dow30 and NASDAQ are 38 and 33 days, respectively. The longest NASDAQ Bear on record is 1,117 days, which lasted from March 31, 2000 through March 22, 2003. The longest Short-term Dow30 Bear lasted from October 18, 1929 to August 24, 1932 or 1041 days. Short-term Bull signals seldom last more than 120 days for either bull or bear market, but a few have lasted more than a year.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

None of the major markets is now breeching the breakout line. The fact that most of the markets breeched the breakout line this year suggests this bull has some staying power. Retreating somewhat at this time is not surprising, as that has not happened since late 1999.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant, please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Force Vectors are now in bearish domains. They turned north ever so slightly last Friday. Vector Pressure is also moving south and remains in bullish domains. Unfortunately, they are getting very close to bearish domains. It is statistically possible for them to cross into bearish domains this coming week. The Indicant will keep you posted. This data is eight dimensional and impossible to plot, but we keep working on simplifying it so we can show you this graphically.

Divergence versus Convergence

Just as nearly all sectors increased in the recent bull serge, nearly all sectors weakened the past two weeks. The oil field services group weakened the most. Gold also dropped, as well as the general equity markets. There are no divergent patterns developing at this time.

Economic Outlook

The dollar rebounded ever so slightly last week, but remains cyclically weak against major currencies. Click the below link for charts on currency exchange rates.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E01.htm

As stated last week, commodity prices are still hovering near cyclical peaks. They appear to be peaking and did soften somewhat last week. The market is anticipating their eventual cyclical decline. As stated the past few weeks, this is not a good time to be buying commodities. A link to commodity prices is below.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E03.htm

Interest rates remain low. Money markets, daily cash accumulation accounts, CD’s, and savings accounts are not the place to be. That is one reason why one should expect a rising stock market this year. Money is going to go back into equities and drive the market higher. All of this fits nicely with the pre-presidential election year phenomenon.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E07.htm

All economic data is on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Fifty-five weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Forty-eight weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Thirty-nine weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 52.1%, which is higher than the 45.8% reported six weeks ago, but down from last week’s 58.5%. The current annualized growth rate is 33.0%, which is down from last weeks 37.5%.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% fifty-three weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Forty-five weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 54.8%, which is down from last weeks 61.9%, but up from 48.8% reported seventeen weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 24.5%, which is down from last weeks 27.9%.

As stated in the past you can monitor the above two funds and the options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Eight weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant’s New Bull signal. Since the Mid-term Bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 14.8% for an annualized growth rate of 95.1%, which is down from last weeks 142.5%. It should tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It, along with the stock market, will also tumble in the improbable event of deflation.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull for all eight major markets on March 22, 2003. Last week, six of the eight major markets were red bulls. This past week the NASDAQ Composite is the only red bull.

The eight indexes are up an average of 10.0% for an annualized gain of 37.2%, which is down from last weeks 47.9%, since the MTI Bull signals an average of 14.0 weeks ago. The DJIA is the weakest bull. It is up 5.5% since the MTI Bull signal on March 22. The Dow Utility Stocks continue to be the strongest bull. It is up 18.5% (annualized at 68.7%) since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003. The NASDAQ is up 14.4% since the March 22, 2003 MTI Bull signal for an annualized gain of 53.3%.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals. Although the International community is bullish, they, like the U.S. markets, softened a bit last week.

Twenty-two of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 40.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 30.9 weeks ago for an annualized gain of 68.0%, which is down from last weeks 72.9%.

There are no bear markets.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

June 22, 2003 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 06, Issue 4 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

Weekly Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated three buy signals and one sell signal for stocks and funds.

In addition to the sell signal, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding only three stocks and funds. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 26.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 26.6 weeks ago. The avoided stocks and funds contrast with one year ago when the Indicant was avoiding 201 stocks and funds for an average of 9.5 weeks. Those stocks and funds were down 24.0% one year ago.

In addition to the buy signals, the Indicant is signaling hold for 289 of the 296 stocks and funds currently tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 44.5%. That annualizes to 110.4%, which is down from 124.1% two weeks ago, but up from 50.2% reported nineteen weeks ago. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these stocks and funds for an average of 21.0 weeks. The stocks/funds with hold signals contrast significantly from one year ago when the Indicant was signaling hold for only 81. At that time, the Mid-term Indicant was holding for an average of 37.4 weeks. They were up 37.2% (annualized at 51.4%).

The mid-term election year phenomenon found the market bottom, right on cue in 2002. The pre-election year phenomenon, which is most bullish years on the presidential election cycle, is taking hold this year. The following link will take you to charts that explain this phenomenon, which is currently underway and for you to enjoy. It is in a “members only” section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0100.htm

Make certain you read the entire page. You will see there are exceptions.

Stop Loss Management

Stop losses remain loosened to 8% since this Quick-term Bull is the strongest and longest lasting Quick-term Bull since late 1999. It is just as important to contact your broker and enter stop losses as it is in buying and selling. We are now into the six-month period of bearish seasonality.

Use either an 8% trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 8% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 15% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante management have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds in those “bearish” conditions. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report. The magnitude of any bull legs is not as strong during bearish seasonal periods, which began on May 1, 2003. The phenomenon of the bullishness inherent in presidential pre-election years is currently over-powering bearish seasonality.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This Past Week

In the past, we have included the stocks and funds with buy and sell signals in this preliminary report. To maintain appropriate security, you can now see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds by clicking the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources into a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information can be found from a single page in the web site.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them to the website.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

The eight major indexes are up an average of 16.1% since the Quick-term Bull signal on March 17, 2003. That annualizes to 61.2%. The Dow30 is now the weakest Quick-term Bull. It is up 13.0% since the QT Bull signal on March 17, 2003. The strongest bull remains the S&P600. It is up 20.3% (annualized at 76.9%) since the Quick-term Bull signal on March 17, 2003.

The eight major indexes are above the bullish red curve by an average of 1.0%. This red bull is as solid as they come, but weakening. The eight indexes are above the bearish yellow curve by 7.7%. The market will eventually hit the yellow, but it keeps rising. As stated last week, by the time it hits yellow, it could be five more percentage points or higher. The next Quick-term Bear will start when the market falls to yellow, but depending on Force Vector and Vector Pressure behavior.

The current Quick-term Bull is now over three-months old. At this time last year we were enduring one of the longest Quick-term Bear markets on record, which lasted from April through August 2002. Now, the reverse condition exists, but it is unlikely this Quick-term Bear will live to see August. However, and as usual, we will wait until the Quick-term Indicant signals bear. There is no need to forecast.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The Indicant Volume Indicator is cooling off. As stated last week, so far, there is no sign of profit taking from the big money. On the contrary, the softening bull is being met with softening volume activity, which means there is no massive selling occurring right now. We need to monitor this closely. If the market starts declining on increasing volume, then we may want to take some profits as well.

To view the Indicant Volume Indicator, please click the following hyperlink.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The Short-term Indicant Bulls are up a combined 8.6%, which annualizes to 99.5%, but as previously stated they should be short-lived. Remember; do not worry about a volatile Short-term Indicant over the next few months. The Dow’s Short-term Bull is up 8.4%, annualized at 94.6%. The NASDAQ’s Short-term Bull is up 9.1%, annualizing at 110.7%.

The Dow30 and NASDAQ Short-term Bulls are 31 and 30 days old, respectively. The average bull/bear cycle for the Dow30 and NASDAQ are 38 and 33 days, respectively. The longest NASDAQ Bear on record is 1,117 days, which lasted from March 31, 2000 through March 22, 2003. The longest Short-term Dow30 Bear lasted from October 18, 1929 to August 24, 1932 or 1041 days. Short-term Bull signals seldom last more than 120 days for either market, but a few have lasted more than a year.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

The NASDAQ100 continues to breech the breakout line. The S&P600 is within 4.3% of the breakout line, while the Dow is within 1.9% of the break out line. The Dow has not touched the breakout line since early 2000. Breeches such as this are bullish. Remember, the recent NASDAQ100 breech was the first time that happened since 1999. The S&P600 (small caps) has out-performed the larger companies in the recent past and will continue to do so in the future.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant, please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Force Vectors are heading south, but remain in bullish domains. Vector Pressure is also moving south but safely positioned in bullish domains. This data is eight dimensional is impossible to plot, but we keep working on it.

Divergence versus Convergence

Although little has changed from the past several weeks, all types of investments weakened slightly last week for the second week in a row. Oilfield services, gold, and other reverse cyclical investments continue to maintain bullish positions. All commodities were down last week except gold. General equities are also maintaining a bullish posture, but also weakened last week. High-energy costs and economic well-being do not coincide and the stock market will eventually reflect that with greater divergence. So far, most investments are converging to the northeast on the charts.

Economic Outlook

Not much changed last week. The dollar’s exchange rate with other currencies was flat last week with the dollar remaining at cyclical lows for the most part. Click the below link to currencies.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E01.htm

As you can see from the below link, commodity prices are still hovering near cyclical peaks. They appear to be peaking. The market is anticipating their eventual cyclical decline. As stated the past few weeks, this is not a good time to be buying commodities. All were flat to down last week with the exception of gold.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E03.htm

Interest rates continue to plummet. The 3-Month T-Bill plummeted 11.1% last week. This behavior will continue to erode the US Dollar. Notice how the CD’s are also plummeting. More people will be diverting their cash accounts to the stock market. Many will be late as usual and get in at the next market peak. You will make much of your money on their behavior. Click the following link to view interest rates.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E07.htm

All economic data is on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Fifty-four weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Forty-seven weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Thirty-eight weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 58.5%, which is higher than the 45.8% reported five weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate is 37.5%.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% fifty-two weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Forty-four weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 61.9%, which is up significantly from 48.8% reported sixteen weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 27.9%.

As stated in the past you can monitor the above two funds and the options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg. Some of you may think we are into a bull right now. We are, but the salient point here is “a meaningful and long lasting bull.” Although exciting, a Quick-term Bull of three months duration is not that.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Seven weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant’s New Bull signal. Since the Mid-term Bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 19.4% for an annualized growth rate of 142.5%. It should tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It will also tumble in the improbable event of deflation.

This paragraph is unchanged from prior weeks, as the condition has not changed. Some big money investors are still playing the fear angle, while others are favoring general equities. One group will be right and the other group will be wrong within the next few months, if both hold their current positions.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull for all eight major markets on March 22, 2003. This Mid-term Bull market is exactly one-quarter old (thirteen weeks). Six of the eight major markets are now red bulls. That configuration last occurred over three years ago.

The eight indexes are up an average of 12.0% for an annualized gain of 47.9%, which is up from 39.6% reported five weeks ago. The DJIA is the weakest bull. It is up 8.0% since the MTI Bull signal on March 22. The Dow Utility Stocks continue to be the strongest bull. It is up 20.8% (annualized at 76.9%) since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals. The international community is extremely bullish.

Twenty-two of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 41.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 29.9 weeks ago for an annualized gain of 72.9%. That is up from last week’s 70.1%.

There are no bear markets.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

June 15, 2003 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 06, Issue 3 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

Weekly Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated one buy signal and four sell signals for stocks and funds.

In addition to the sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding two stocks and funds. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 26.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 26.6 weeks ago. The avoided stocks and funds contrasts with one year ago when the Indicant was avoiding 188 stocks and funds for an average of 9.2 weeks. Those stocks and funds were down 22.3%.

In addition to the buy signal, the Indicant is signaling hold for 289 of the 296 stocks and funds currently being tracked. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 44.6%. That annualizes to 116.3%, which is down from last week’s 124.1%, but up from 50.2% reported eighteen weeks ago. These stocks and funds have been held for an average of 20.0 weeks. The stocks/funds with hold signals contrasts significantly from one year ago when the Indicant was signaling hold for only 93. At that time they had been held for an average of 36.4 weeks. They were up 34.7% (annualized at 49.5%).

Stop Loss Management

Stop losses remain loosened to 8% since this Quick-term Bull is the strongest and longest lasting Quick-term Bull since late 1999. It is just as important to contact your broker and enter stop losses as it is in buying and selling. We are now into the six-month period of bearish seasonality.

Use either a 8% trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 8% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 8% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 15% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds in those “bearish” conditions. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report. The magnitude of any bull legs is not as strong during bearish seasonal periods, which began on May 1, 2003. The phenomenon of the bullishness inherent in presidential pre-election years is currently over-powering bearish seasonality.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This Past Week

In the past, we have included the stocks and funds with buy and sell signals in this preliminary report. To maintain appropriate security, you can now see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds by clicking the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources into a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information can be found from a single page in the web site.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them to the website.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

The eight major indexes are above the bullish red curve by an average of 1.7%. This red bull is as solid as they come. The eight indexes are above the bearish yellow curve by 8.8%. The market will eventually hit the yellow, but it keeps rising. As stated last week, by the time it hits yellow, it could be five or more percentage points or higher.

The eight major indexes are up an average of 15.1% since the Quick-term Bull signal on March 17, 2003. That annualizes to 62.6% growth. The NASDAQ100 is now  the weakest Quick-term Bull. It is up 11.8% since the QT Bull signal on March 17, 2003. The strongest bull remains the S&P600. It is up 19.5% (annualized at 80.7%) since the Quick-term Bull signal on March 17, 2003.

The current Quick-term Bull will be three months old this coming Tuesday. At this time last year we were enduring one of the longest Quick-term Bear markets on record, which lasted from April through August 2002. Now, the reverse condition exist, but it is unlikely this Quick-term Bear will live to see August. However, and as usual, we will wait until the Quick-term Indicant signals bear. There is no need to forecast.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The Indicant Volume Indicator is continuing a robust configuration, but appears to be peaking. As stated last week, so far, there is no sign of profit taking from the big money. We need to monitor this closely. If the market starts declining on continuing increasing volume, then we may want to take some profits as well.

To view the Indicant Volume Indicator, please click the following hyperlink.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The Short-term Indicant Bulls are up a combined 7.5%, which annualizes to 116.9%, but as previously stated they should be short-lived. Remember; do not worry about a volatile Short-term Indicant over the next few months.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

The NASDAQ100 continues to breech the breakout line. The S&P600 is expected to do that in the next few days. Breeches such as this are bullish. Remember, the recent NASDAQ100 breech was the first time that happened since 1999.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant, please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

Although little has changed from the past several weeks, all types of investments weakened slightly last week. Oilfield services, gold, and other reverse cyclical investments continue to maintain bullish positions. Some were down last week. General equities are also maintaining a bullish posture, but also weakened last week. High-energy costs and economic well-being do not coincide and the stock market will eventually reflect that with greater divergence.

Economic Outlook

Not much changed last week. The U.S. Dollar resumed its erosion last week, but Greenspan’s focus is on the economy, as opposed to strengthening the dollar.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E01.htm

As you can see from the below link, commodity prices are still hovering near cyclical peaks. They appear to be peaking. The market is anticipating their eventual cyclical decline. This is not a good time to be buying commodities. Investment dollars are being directed to the stock market.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E03.htm

All economic data is on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Fifty-three weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Forty-six weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Thirty-seven weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 55.5%, which is higher than the 45.8% reported four weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate is 36.1%.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% fifty-one weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Forty-three weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 59.3%, which is up slightly from 48.8% reported fifteen weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 27.0%.

As stated in the past you can monitor the above two funds and the options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Six weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant’s New Bull signal. Since the Mid-term Bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 15.9% for an annualized growth rate of 136.3%. It should tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It will also tumble in the improbable event of deflation.

This paragraph is unchanged from prior weeks, as the condition has not changed. Some big money investors are still playing the fear angle, while others are favoring general equities. One group will be right and the other group will be wrong within the next few months, if both hold their current positions.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull for all eight major markets on March 22, 2003. The eight indexes are up an average of 10.9% for an annualized gain of 51.1%, which is up from 39.6% reported four weeks ago, but down from last week’s 51.1%. The DJIA is the weakest bull. It is up 7.0% since the MTI Bull signal on March 22. The Dow Utility Stocks continue to be the strongest bull. It is up 18.3% (annualized at 73.6%) since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals. The international community is extremely bullish.

Twenty-two of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 38.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 28.9 weeks ago for an annualized gain 70.1%. They paused last week, as was the case for most markets.

There are no bear markets.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

June 8, 2003 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 06, Issue 2 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

What Correction?

The higher the market goes, the less significant the impending correction will be. Of course, if the correction is extraordinarily deep, then it becomes significant. Right now, there is nothing on the horizon suggesting a deep correction.

What is deep? A correction that completely wipes out the gains of the current Quick-term Bull. That would take at least a 15% drop and that is unlikely. There are a few reasons why a deep correction is unlikely.

The presidential election year phenomenon is influential in the current Quick-term Bull market. The market is being buffered by the phenomenon of the mid-term election year, where market bottoms are typically found. So far, that has been the case, as the 2002 market bottom has not been touched since the first Quick-term Bull started last October.

The Indicant Volume Indictor is demonstrating profound robust behavior. This profound behavior indicates the demand for stocks is beginning to exceed the supply. If that continues, the upward price elasticity you are witnessing will continue.

The NASDAQ100 breached the breakout line this past week. That is the first time that has occurred in over three tears. The Short-term Indicant Bull is holding up well after signaling bear for the NASDAQ for over three years from March 2000 through most of April 2003.

More importantly, the millions of 401K plans have made Americans more keenly aware of economics, business, and the forces of capitalism. Less than 30% of Americans owned stocks in 1987, while over 50% own stocks today. This dynamic is entering the political arena. This will influence legislative law in favor of capitalistic pursuits in the future.

The stock market has smelled this movement since 1982 when the first leg of this great bull market began. Supply side economics was introduced at that time. Alan Greenspan, a disciple of Ayn Rand, became the Fed Chief in the 1980’s. The undercurrent of Ayn Rand, through Alan Greenspan, has helped propel the market to record heights and in a short period. This movement will now work its way into places such as Iraq where stockbrokers are now being trained. Russia and other former communistic nations are moving toward the undercurrents of Ayn Rand. One has every reason to be fundamentally bullish.

The average American knows more about economics and business than at any time before. This accumulating knowledge is growing throughout the world. With this knowledge, the economies of the world will become stronger. This will stifle the socialistic movements brought on by communism and FDR. Those movements peaked in the late 1970’s and are headed south. Kingdoms, dictatorships, and other economic stifling governments are going to shrink. Expect less money going to the non productive and more money directed toward the productive. This will drive the markets higher.

However, markets do not move north northeast on a straight line. You will see many corrections, as you have in the past. One will be occurring in the very near future. We are well into the period of six-months of bearish seasonality. A correction of 5% would not be too much of a bother; especially for those of you who bought last October. Some of those stocks are up by triple digit amounts.

Some very recent buy signals are up by triple digit amounts. The recent behaviors of those stocks resemble similar behaviors in the early and late 1980’s. For example, Imclone is up 370.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on October 25, 2002. A link to that chart is below.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Stks-NAS100/NS08.htm#45

Even with Martha Stewart being charged in her dealings with the Imclone stock, the stock is moving north. Much of the growth has been in the past two weeks. This is a biotech stock and many of those stocks are moving explosively to the north. This small company loses about two bucks for each revenue dollar. One would not be wrong in considering the recent stock price as speculative. However, the stock price is up and if you bought on October 25, 2002 and sold today, you would have made 370.4%. It is not being recommended that you sell the stock at this time.

There are fundamental reasons for the biotech stocks to more rapidly to the north. The baby boomers are getting older and many are still fans of Elvis. The graying baby boomers still have a rock and roll attitude and will do all they can to stay young and hand around. Just as Detroit benefited from the soccer mom’s minivans and SUV’s, the baby boomers are going to drive a pretty healthy demand for biotech goods and services in the next twenty-five years or so. Look at the biotech index to see its explosive growth. It is up 38.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on March 22, 2003.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I01.htm#02

Keep in mind, though, we are into the six-month period of bearish seasonality. The Dow is up 6.9% since April 30, which was the last official day of bullish seasonality. The Dow’s best performance during the six months of bearish seasonality occurred in 1958 when it increased by 19.2%. In 1982 it increased by 16.9%, the second best performance. The third best year was a 13.1% rise in 1980. The only other double digit performing years was in 1954 and 1995 when the Dow rose 10.3% and 10.0%, respectively. You will notice each of those years is either mid-term election years or presidential pre election years.

Again, it is important to note that the stock market has risen 432.3% in pre presidential election years since 1833. It has risen 285.2% in presidential election years since 1833. So, if historical normalcy holds true to form, this year and next year should deliver solid bullish behavior. The stock market has risen only 67.9% in post election years since 1833. That is less than one-half of one percent after the rascals are elected to office.

The various Indicant models will keep you posted.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see specific performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them to the website.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

Little has changed from the past several weeks. Oilfield services, gold, and other reverse cyclical investments continue to move strongly to the north. General equities also moved aggressively to the north also. High-energy costs and economic well-being do not coincide and the stock market will eventually reflect that.

Economic Outlook

Not much changed last week. The greenback remains weak although showing some strength last week.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E01.htm

As you can see from the below link, commodity prices are still hovering near cyclical highs.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E03.htm

Gold, oil, and other commodities bounced north last week, maintaining their cyclically high positions. It is unbelievable that deflation can make the news with this going on. There is no way deflation is a problem right now.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economic and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Fifty-two weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Forty-five weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Thirty-six weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 54.7%, which is higher than the 45.8% reported three weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate is 36.0%.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% fifty weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Forty-four weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 59.7%, which is up slightly from 48.8% reported fourteen weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 27.4%.

As stated in the past you can monitor the above two funds and the options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Five weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant’s New Bull signal. Since the Mid-term Bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 14.1% for an annualized growth rate of 145.1%. It should tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It will also tumble in the improbable event of deflation.

Some big money investors are still playing the fear angle, while others are favoring general equities. One group will be right and the other group will be wrong within the next few months, if both hold their current positions.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant – Markets

The eight major indexes are up by an average of 15.2% since the March 17, 2003 Quick-term Bull Signal. That is an annualized gain of 68.1%, which is up from 55.7% three weeks ago.

The weakest Quick-term Bull is the DJIA. It is up 11.3% since the Quick-term Bull signal on March 17, 2003. It is annualizing at a 50.8% growth rate. The strongest bull is the S&P600 Index, which is up 20.0% (annualized at 89.7%) since the March 17, 2003 QT Bull signal. The NASDAQ is up 16.9% (annualized at 75.9%), while the NASDAQ100 is up 12.6% (annualized at 56.8%). The former NASDAQ100 stocks continue to outperform the current NASDAQ100 stocks. Many of the former NASDAQ 100 stocks are in the Indicant Select Stocks group.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

After appearing to be peaking last week, the NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator is again moving with robust characteristics. This is bullish since the market also increased a considerable amount the past few weeks.

The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator also reinvigorated itself last week with signs of returning robustness. Again, that is bullish.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The combined Short-term Indicant Bulls are up 7.2% (annualized at 161.6%) since their respective bull signals an average of 2.2 weeks ago. The NASDAQ Short-term Indicant is up 8.0%, while the Dow is up 6.4%. As stated four weeks ago, these Short-term Bulls will most likely not last too long as we are now inside the six-month period of bearish seasonality and the ghost of the massive NASDAQ Short-term Bear from March 2000 through April 2003 lingers.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

Click the following link to see a table of Short-term Indicant trades since 1995.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

The following link will take you to additional Quick-term and Short-term Indicant information.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/A%20Reports.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull for all eight major markets on March 22, 2003. The eight indexes are up an average of 11.0% for an annualized gain of 51.1%, which is up from 39.6% reported three weeks ago. The DJIA is the weakest bull. It is up 6.4% since the MTI Bull signal on March 22. The Dow Utility Stocks continue to be the strongest bull. It is up 17.0% (annualized at 81.8%)since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Twenty-two of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 37.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 27.9 weeks ago for an annualized gain 69.8%.

There are now no bear markets.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

June 1, 2003 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 06, Issue 1 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

Contrasts

So far, the pre-election year phenomenon is holding up well. The month of May closed up, contrasting with last year’s severe decline. We are now one-month into the six-month period of bearish seasonality. The market is ignoring bearish seasonality and favoring the normalcy of presidential pre-election years.

Surprising to many, this Quick-term Bull follows the worse December since 1931 when some pundits suggested the market’s decline is not over. The correction last February was steep relative to the type of bull we are now having. However, this Quick-term Bull wiped out the February correction, plus some. That contrasts significantly when the recent Quick-term Bulls were wiped out by subsequent Quick-term Bears. This is the first reversal of those cycles since late 1999 and early 2000.

The Quick-term attributes are positioning themselves to support a correction in the very near future. So far, the configuration of those attributes will buffer any correction to the south. The correction should be mild and not steep like those Quick-term Bears last year. Currently, lateral movements from the south-southeast on the charts would not be that surprising.

The Dow Utilities were not explosive last week like they had been, but is still the highest performing group of stocks tracked by the Indicant. The last sell signal for any of the Dow Utilities occurred on April 5, 2003. That is a long time for the Mid-term Indicant to go without a buy or sell signal for an entire group of stocks.

What is especially interesting is the NASDAQ100 is about to breach the breakout line. A link to that chart is below.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

It will be especially bullish when the NASDAQ100 breakouts above the breakout line. The market may not propel aggressively to the north immediately following that even, but it will signal the devastating effects to many investors has found bottom.

Always keep in mind that many so-called high tech companies do not add directly to the economy, unless they manufacturing a product. Remember, economic wealth is delivered in only three ways; manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction. So, the better long-term high tech companies are those who manufacture products.

International Market #7, Venezuela, exploded to the north last week. A link to that is below.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-International/IM02.htm#07

That explosive move can be interpreted that the strife between the oil companies and labor is expected to be more harmonistic for the foreseeable future. That means there should be a longer lasting source of reliable oil supplies, which should lead to more downward pressure on the price of oil.

Gold is up. Stocks are up. Commodities are up. The only bad performing investment right now are cash accounts. This convergence to the north northeast will not last too long, as those bullish behaviors cannot coexist for too long.

Although we are now one month into bearish seasonality, the Indicant Volume Indicator is signaling a solid bullish undercurrent. Both the NYSE and NASDAQ renewed robust movements to the north on an increasing stock market. A link to the Indicant Volume Indicator is below:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

Watch for the Quick-term updates so we can keep you advised on the next Quick-term Bear market, which should start before the end of June.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see specific performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them to the website.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

There is little changed from the past several weeks, except oilfield services, gold, and other reverse cyclical investments continue to move strongly to the north. General equities also moved aggressively to the north also. High-energy costs and economic well-being do not coincide and the stock market will reflect that.

Economic Outlook

Although the US Dollar rebounded last week, it continues to chart continuing weakness. This bodes well for exporters, but it will be inflationary, as the cost of imports increase. The link to the currency charts is below:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E01.htm

As you can see from the below link, commodity prices are still hovering near cyclical highs.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E03.htm

Gold, oil, and other commodities bounced north last week, maintaining their cyclically high positions. It is unbelievable that deflation can make the news with this going on. There is no way deflation is a problem right now.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economic and Terrorism

The Indicant signaled buy for Fidelity American Gold (FSAGX) - #28 on December 7, 2001. Fifty-one weeks ago, it was up 66.1% since that buy signal. Forty-four weeks ago, it closed up 12.0% since that buy signal. Thirty-five weeks ago, it closed up 42.9% since the MTI buy signal of December 7, 2001. Last week it closed up 51.4%, which is higher than the 45.8% reported two weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate is 34.2%, which is down from last week’s 34.7% because this fund stayed flat last week.

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% forty-nine weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. Forty-three weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 52.6%, which is up slightly from 48.8% reported thirteen weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 24.3%.

Both of these funds moved up last week, which contrasts loudly against expressions from the press a couple of weeks ago about deflation.

As stated in the past you can monitor the above two funds and options index to help you gauge fear related investments. These two funds require “avoid” signals for the market to embark upon a meaningful and lasting bull leg.

Links to both of the above funds are as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF05.htm#28

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF04.htm#19

Four weeks ago, the Gold and Silver Index fell below the long-term blue curve. As is typical, it bounced back above that curve the following week, forcing the Mid-term Indicant’s New Bull signal. Since the Mid-term Bull signal of May 3, 2003, this index is up 8.7% for an annualized growth rate of 112.5%. It should tumble if terrorism and inflationary threats subside. It will also tumble in improbable event of deflation.

Some big money investors are still playing the fear angle, while others are favoring general equities. One group will be right and the other group will be wrong within the next few months, if both hold their current positions.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mkts-Index%20Options/I05.htm#25

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant – Markets

The eight major indexes are up by an average of 23.9% since the March 17, 2003 Quick-term Bull Signal. That is an annualized gain of 63.1%, which is up from 55.7% two weeks ago.

The weakest Quick-term Bull is the DJIA. It is up 3.9% since the Quick-term Bull signal on March 17, 2003. It is annualizing at a 42.8% growth rate. The strongest bull is the S&P600 Index, which is up 17.1% (annualized at 84.0%) since the March 17, 2003 QT Bull signal. The NASDAQ is up 14.6% (annualized at 71.9%) while the NASDAQ100 is up 11.2% (annualized at 55.2%). The former NASDAQ100 stocks are outperforming the current NASDAQ100 stocks.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

After appearing to be peaking last week, the NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator is again moving with robust characteristics. This is bullish since the market also increased a considerable amount last week.

The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator also reinvigorated itself last week with signs of returning robustness. Again, that is bullish.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The combined Short-term Bulls are up 4.9% for an annualized gain of 195.6% since the Short-term Bull signal last Wednesday and Thursday. The NASDAQ Short-term Indicant is up 5.9%, while the Dow is up 3.9%. As stated three weeks ago, these Short-term Bulls will most likely not last too long as we are now inside the six-month period of bearish seasonality.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

Click the following link to see a table of Short-term Indicant trades since 1995.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/ST%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

The following link will take you to additional Quick-term and Short-term Indicant information.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/A%20Reports.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull for all eight major markets on March 22, 2003. The eight indexes are up an average of 9.2% for an annualized gain of 47.7%, which is up from 39.6% reported two weeks ago. The DJIA is the weakest bull. It is up 3.9% since the MTI Bull signal on March 22. The Dow Utility Stocks continue to be the strongest bull. It is up 16.7% since the MTI Bull signal on March 22, 2003.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Twenty-two of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 34.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 26.9 weeks ago for an annualized gain 66.7%.

There are now no bear markets.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

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