Jun 2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Jun 28, 2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 6, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Global Warming, Thresher, and Economic Overhead

Michael Jackson was a member of the economic overhead group. He did not participate in manufacturing, agriculture, or extraction. He, therefore, did not generate any wealth. His death is dominating the news. The people, who write the news, are also members of the economic overhead group. They do not participate in manufacturing, agriculture, or extraction. Therefore, they do not create wealth and with that offer errant views by not knowing the important from the unimportant.

Although Michael Jackson was a talented entertainer and many mourn his death, a much more significant event took place the past few days. The House of Representatives passed the Cap-and-Trade bill. Politicians are members of the economic overhead group. They do not contribute to manufacturing, agriculture, or extraction. History clearly demonstrates their errant views and action.

One of the proponents of Cap-and-Trade is Al Gore. He has a BA in journalism. He is not a scientist and not qualified to express opinions about science. He is also a member of the economic overhead group and his thinking is bounded within the framework of an egotistical maniac. His followers are crazies who listen to his unqualified view about science.

The problem surrounding folks confined to the economic overhead group is that they do not know how to think properly. Their confined livelihoods are limited to abstracts, where obviations of wrong or right are nonexistent. The world of science clearly indicates the result of effort as being wrong or right. If the space ship flies and returns to earth, the design and construction of the craft was obviously right. If it blows up and kills all aboard, the design and construction were obviously wrong.

Abstract folks are not confined to the level of accuracy required in the scientific world. They continue to banter about things, knowing their pontifications cannot be proven wrong nor right, which facilitates more pontifications from them. They love the argument as it provides a forum for heightened pontifications. They will avoid the x=some value. They will invoke that x may equal y or x may equal q. If one proves x=y, then that one will be pronounced as wrong by the pontificator who will continue arguing x could be anything. Eventually, x=y will become common knowledge, but the pontificator enjoyed the limelight before succumbing to six foot under. Unfortunately, those with great oratory skills are rewarded, regardless of the ineptness of their thinking. Followers will continue to listen to those with great oratory skills in spite of the fact that x=y, even though the orator does not know or care. He or she only enjoys the cheers from the dumb crowd. One has to wonder how one can gain pleasure from gloating crowds shrouded in stupidity. That is not much different from one standing in the forest and imagining the trees are clamping their limbs in approval of the pontificator.

The inaccurate thinking of these pontificators will eventually show that they were destroyers of human progress. This document will be lifted by some historian maybe two hundred years from now, verified as being on point, and today’s contemporaries great, great grandchildren will point to the current U.S. Congress as being an embarrassment to the homosapien species.

The U.S. House of Representatives, for the most part, are those people whose entire livelihoods have never encountered being wrong, as their abstract opinions flow aimlessly through the air with no immediate conclusive evidence of being right or wrong. Their decisions are seldom met with personal consequences, which mean there is no value to those opinions. That lifestyle fosters incomplete and inaccurate thinking abilities.

The science of global warming is inconclusive. Too many scientists disagree on humankind’s influence on the environment. As long as scientists disagree, there remains an obvious shortage of scientific evidence of humankind’s influence on the climate. How can a system evolve for abstract thinkers to choose one side over the other? Those who voted on Cap and Trade are not qualified for proper assessment and courses of action. At worse, let the scientists vote; not a bunch of liberal arts types.

Suppose investors want to start up a steel mill. During the course of their investment analysis, they will ask, where will we have the best chance of being the lowest cost producer? Answer = not the U.S.A. The tax structure is too high, they will reason. The regulations are complex and significant overhead will be required to support the regulations. They will also reason that the U.S. is a declining manufacturing environment and therefore too few customers for steel. So, where can we invest in a new steel mill, they ask? Answer = any country with low taxes and minimal regulations.

Steel is an important subject requiring familiarity. Any culture that is adept at steel manufacturing is, by default, stronger than cultures weak in that field of expertise. Steel producers have always been victorious over cultures without it; either militaristically or economically. The larger producer of metal objects always wins in the event of conflict. During serious conflicts, abstract producers are reduced to irrelevant.

Politicians do not understand steel. They would not know a magnaflux machine if they saw one. If someone showed them one, they would not know that Zyglo processes would have to be used to identify inclusions if the base material was austenite and not the magnaflux machine. Politicians do not understand that plastic has not yet attained the same properties of steel’s modulus elasticity. In other words, if the abstract thinkers were left to the construction of physical objects, they would crumble.

When abstract thinkers apply their thoughts into the physical sciences, harmful conclusions ensue. Physical science requires absolute precision in conclusions. Abstracts facilitate unknown variances to any conclusions about any subject. Theodore Rockwell, in his book, The Rickover Effect, very clearly demonstrated abstract decision makers caused the Thresher to sink. Abstract decision-makers concluded with 129-drowned dead souls in the Atlantic Ocean.

Here is one of the most powerful quotes in modern literature directly from Theodore Rockwell to lay in some framework for this line of thinking in referring to the Thresher’s sinking and abstract decision making. “This situation mirrors what is happening in American society at large. Industrial enterprises that were started by engineers, such as George Westinghouse, Henry Ford, Glenn Martin, and George Eastman are now run by lawyers and accountants. These “bean counters” have taken their engineering companies out of the technical specialties they created, such as gas turbines and electrical appliances, and put them in the business of selling records and running Caribbean hotels and car rental operations. Our space program is run by fiscal specialists and “management experts, and we lionize the astronauts while nameless engineers, deep in the organization, write unread warnings about technical trivia, such as O-rings.”

Mr. Rockwell did not elaborate on the O-Ring. I will add to it for those of you who are not familiar with his insight. An engineer warned political and business leadership of a very high probability that the Challenger Space Shuttle had an O-ring design that was flawed. The engineer ran correlation coefficients, suggesting a very high probability of disaster. “Leadership” allowed the Space Shuttle to launch and 73-seconds into flight, it blew up killing seven people.

Those same sort of abstract folks are now passing laws to tax everyone for emissions into the atmosphere. Those same sort of folks killed 129-sailors and seven astronauts. Not limiting their insanity to closely tied projects, such as a submarine and a space shuttle, they have expanded their reach to the planet earth. They do not know the harm they create. Even after the catastrophes caused by their ineptness, they are incapable of analyzing their errant thinking for it requires precision in thought far exceeding their “abstract-only” abilities. Rest assured the casualties will exceed the 129+7 dead souls discussed herein if Cap and Trade is eventually passed.

When abstract thoughts become law and obedience to those laws remains, those who find that obedience with excessive burden will not invest in the face of that burden. Investments in manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction should be encouraged. On the contrary, such investments are being discouraged.

Economic wealth is provided from only three sources of activity. Two of those three sources are to be excessively burdened by abstract, unqualified people at this time. Investment potential will be minimized and with that, economic wealth will be depressed. The magnitude is unknown, but it will move south.

The primary hope for the U.S. economy is that other countries follow the same path of the U.S. Cap and Trade, regardless if the abstract thoughts surrounding it are accurate or inaccurate. It is unlikely all countries will follow suit. With that, investment potential will be greater elsewhere than in the U.S.

Political leadership is in a big hurry to push the Cap and Trade legislation through. They know a potential political power shift can occur in 2010. This is common during post election years and the primary reason for the stock market’s bearishness in presidential post election years. Congress tends to support the programs of the new incoming president in the post election year, who for the most part, is bent on abstract concepts, where few can identify wrongness or rightness in their ideas.

Keep in mind that stock market investing since 1832, only in post election years, is the only year in the four-year presidential election cycle that looses money. A $10,000 investment made only in post election years since 1832 was worth only $8,758 as of December 31, 2008. That is nearly 200-years of substantial evidence brought on by the destructive results of abstract thinkers and their flawed ideas.

Prior to 1832, most politicians were part timers and usually worked their farms when not in session. Their thinking and action was far more accurate than today’s manicured, professional politician, who has a very limited understanding of the physical sciences and zero understanding of the sources of economic wealth. The “people” who elect them deserve the consequences of the stupidity they convey in their voting and belief systems.

The problem with the populace is that recognition of political wrongness is not immediate. It will be a few years before poverty and crime accelerate. Those responsible for that demise will not be identifiable by the masses, but historians in the future with scientific training will certainly understand and accurately convey the sloppiness of the contemporary politicians. Hope for today’s recognition is very limited. Most “flat earth” type thinkers point to the problems they have on Wednesday to what happened on Tuesday. The movement is negative, but recognition of that movement will not be next week, next month, next year, etc. It is unlikely it will be recognized in 2010’s mid-term election.

What the populace needs to understand is that there is no good political party. If you want a bull market, you want the executive and legislative branches of government to be from different political parties. You want a president, who does not reach across the aisle, and you want politicians who dislike one another. You do not want them getting along with each other.

The great bull market, starting in 1980 and lasting through 2000, was due, in part, to political discourse in Washington D.C. This was especially significant in 1994 when the Congress was Republican, the White House was Democratic, and both groups behaved as such. That was a short period, when the populace recognized that government solutions to problems were inapt. Some members of Congress remembered the craziness and saw the harm created by LBJ’s Great Society program; another meaningless and harmful abstract thought.

Harmful conclusions have always been the result of governmental intrusions into capitalistic methods, but the key in a democracy is that factual recognition by the populace is delayed; long after the harm is underway. When not recognized by the populace, the quality of life decreases. The bull loved that recognition by the populace and became especially excited when the rest of the world moved in the same direction of limited governmental influences in the 1980’s and 1990’s.

The good news is this. The world is smaller by virtue of capitalisms’ provisions of physical objects, such as jet engines, fast ships, and other modes of transportation. No government produced these objects of physical efficiencies. The internet has provided rapid transfer of critical information around the world. There will be plenty of investment opportunities; they will not be in the U.S.

People will always desire physical objects, such as cars, watches, televisions, cell phones, etc. Low cost, high quality producers will provide them. That means manufacturing will occur somewhere. The U.S., as the predominant power, in that arena will no longer lead. That means investment opportunities will be grand in various parts of the world and also better places to live.

The U.S. has been attractive place of residence for a couple of centuries; not because of the Stars Spangled Banner and the Statue of Liberty, but simply because of freedom and limited political constraints. Those two attributes are not guaranteed, and as one can see, intrusions by the abstract folks are accelerating. Other places on this planet can do the same thing that our founding fathers did. If so, rest assured you and I will go there, along with most everyone else on the planet, who desires freedom from political constraints.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals. There have been 540-sell signals since October 26, 2007 and 39-buy signals since October 31, 2008.

Although there were no buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for only 22 of the 344-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 124.2%. That annualizes to 60.3%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 22-stocks and funds for an average of 107.1-weeks. (The calendar was adjusted and the reason for a few more weeks and a reduction in the annualized growth rate from last week. There was a small error in the calendar).

Although there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 322-stocks and funds of 344- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 26.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 53.2-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Jun 27, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 104-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 177.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 254.5% (annualized at 74.7%). There were 185-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 17.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 24.1-weeks earlier. (There were 56-sell signals one year ago).

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 308-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Jun 29, 2007. They were up by an average of 135.2% (annualized at 63.9%) since their respective buy signals an average of 110.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 31-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 15.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 29.6-weeks earlier.

There were 208-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jun 30, 2006 since their buy signals an average of 113.0-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 151.4% (annualized at 69.7%). There were 136-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 5.0% from their respective sell signals an average of 15.2-weeks earlier.

On Jun 24, 2005, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 196-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 106.1% (annualized at 57.9%) since their buy signals an average of 95.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 110-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 26.6% since their sell signals an average of 61.0-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Jun 25, 2004, there were 248-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 73.9% (annualized at 72.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of 53.0-weeks earlier. There were 35-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 30.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 44.9-weeks earlier.

On Jun 28, 2003, there were 277-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 42.6%, annualizing at 99.7%, since the buy signals an average of 27.6-weeks earlier. There were three avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 26.9% since their sell signals an average of 22.2-weeks earlier.

On Jun 28, 2002, there were 71-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 39.9%, annualizing at 51.3%. The 213-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 17.6% since sell signals an average of 10.0-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Right now, the pendulum is swinging to the left. That is not good for stock equity related investing.

All updated information can be accessed from the following link. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

There were no Mid-term Indicant buy signals this weekend. Fundamentals remain too weak and the outlook for them remains bearish.

As stated several days ago, the current Near-term Bull is tiring. Vector Pressure is at or near a maximum value. Force Vector is not being as responsive to bullish expressions, as it was earlier in the cycle (early March). However, until you see Near-term sell signals and bear signals, the Near-term bull remains in tact.

If this cooling phase is followed with more Near-term bullishness, the Mid-term Indicant will generate more buy signals in spite of poor fundamentals.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is imbedded in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months.

The Daily Indicant Stock Market Report for the last trading day of the current week is near the conclusion of this weekly stock market report. It is emailed each weekend, separately, so you can read it, either as a separate document, or in this document.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 15.8% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 65.0% and the S&P500 is up 18.3% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 57.9% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming.

The Dow is down 40.4% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 35.7% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is down 39.5% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking, like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Interestingly, most of the major indices last cyclical bottom occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its bottom on November 20, 2008. The resilience of the current Near-term Bull cycle suggests it may indeed have enough sustainability to permanently mark a major cyclical bottom. In other words, the next Near-term Bear cycle may not fall below the March 9, 2009 bottoming.

There is one major point here. If the Near-term Indicant is signaling avoid, all short-term traders should be avoiding, in spite of the potential optimism in the prior paragraph. The longer-term trader should continue patiently awaiting buying clearance from the Mid-term Indicant. Older and strategic longer-term traders are still up by triple digits from the 1991 bull signal by the Long-term Indicant. However, if inflation manifests, triple digit gains over a twenty-year period will not be enough. Government spending without paralleled support from the only three-wealth building economic sectors (manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction), inflation is expected to manifest and with gusto. If it does not, economic books will be rewritten. At this point, do not be surprised at $500 oil by 2015. This is especially true if the Chinese accelerate capitalistic endeavors. The Cap and Trade Tax could accelerate this pricing of oil and commodities. This is shaping up similarly to the 1970’s and that was without China’s demand for oil.

The NASDAQ is down 63.6% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 39.8% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 28.0% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

As socialism increases, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050. Even that depends on resurgence in entrepreneurialism and related capitalism. Politicians screwed up the economy and the majority apparently believes their proposed fixes. They are now imposing more constraints on business expansion and thus the continuation of wealth destruction should not be surprising. Politicians have deemed obsolete the normal efficiencies of capitalistic cleansing of the incompetent. That will wear down the capital markets as politicians continue their neurotic desires to expand their influence and controls. Those leeches will eventually kill their host, but like all leeches, they continue on sucking away.

The good news is the politicians in Washington D.C. have reduced their power by weakening their already weak constituents. International competitiveness will continue reducing their power and influence. With that, capitalists around the world will continue providing products of appeal, while politicians continue exuding irrelevant commentary. Let’s just hope that products of appeal is not weaponry, alone.

The Dow is down 3.9% so far this year. The NASDAQ is up 16.6% so far this year. Keep in mind the post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since 1832. So far, the stock market is conforming to this historical standard, but the NASDAQ is currently arguing with that standard.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 16.4% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%., which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. So far, the NASDAQ is incongruent with this post election year.

The NASDAQ was down by 26.7% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which is consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 22.4%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 1.1% and finished up by 8.6% for that year, which was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. It was down by 5.6% in 2005’s post election year, which maintained congruency to the historical standards of losses. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. 2005 finished up by a mere 1.4%, which was an excellent year based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. In 2006, it was down 3.2% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 6.6% at this time in 2007 and finished that year in positive territory by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. It was down 12.5% at this time last year. The NASDAQ finished down by 40.5% in 2008. That was contrarian performance to historical election year bullishness and the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

So far, this presidential post election year is performing consistently with historical standards. The capital markets understand socio-political influences are predominant in the first year of most incoming administrations and thus generally non-bullish. Politicians offer nothing pertinent to the quality of life, including health or wealth. They “talk about it” but just one RN offers more toward health and one good entrepreneur offers more toward wealth than the collection of all politicians, kings, queens, and dictators since the beginning of time. Those “control freaks” only talk and rob folks of their wealth and health.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% due to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models continuing with bull/hold signals.

The Mid-term Indicant for major indices is supporting with a bull signal while this model is much more conservative in signaling buy for funds and stocks and thus the reason for continued avoidance for most of the stocks and funds.

Most of the longer-term holdings of stocks and funds continue with “avoid” signals, but a few are still holding. The risk of continued holding, even for the likes of Apple, remains relaxed.

If you feel you will need cash within the next two years, you should consider selling all stocks and funds. (The Mid-term Indicant is not signaling hold for any mutual funds, including those that short the market at this time, with the exception of one gold fund). The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models participate in bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data, which remains bearish.

It is unlikely the market will not enjoy long-lasting bullish cycles for the next ten to fifteen years with the possible exception of Asian markets. The charts are being enhanced to support that sort of market climate.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Short-term rates continue configuring at what appears to be a cyclical minimum. Normally, that would threaten the bull, but they are so low the immediate prognosis borders minutia.

Mortgage rates continue moving north and aggressively so, but most likely an aberration. Such a movement is asynchronous to underlying market forces.

As stated the past several weeks, you can see some early warning signs of impending inflation. Although oil prices have stabilized the past two weeks, they have not fallen in the face of projections of declining demand. OPEC will continue instituting supply reductions. This time around, there is little likelihood of cheating members in the OPEC organization. They want prices to stabilize at $80 per barrel. The Saudi King concurs. Over the years, we have learned the Saudi King rules when it comes to oil prices.

A few weeks ago, commodities elevated into the neutral zone from their bullish mini-cycle. Bearish yellow is attempting a shift to the north. That should incite a period of indecisiveness. A low growth China and a flat West should invite a renewed bearish cycle to commodities. If you own related ETF’s make certain your stop losses are set.

Gold is an exception. It remains too risky to sell on a Quick-term basis. Longer-term hold positions are okay. Its strength is a testament to the fear elements inherent in the economy. Economic conditions will be fostering the “hate element” of humanity. Keep your eye on the daily report as gold appears nearing a cyclical peak on a short-term basis, but fundamentally remains a solid hold. Just keep in mind, the one who has engine lathes, turret lathes, and mills and knows how to operate them can take gold from those who only have gold.

As stated 39-weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental. You will see that prognosis continuing in spite of recent bullish expressions.

As stated 34-weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.” This year is about one-half complete. The bear has been silent since early March, but it still has plenty of time to demonstrate its reflection of a souring culture.

As stated 30-weeks ago, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near expiration. Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from time to time, but the trend should remain bearish throughout this year and into 2010. Bullish spurts will occur from time to time. As we learned from the November 28, 2008 – January 21, 2009 bullish spurt, profit potential from them is limited and in some cases disappoint rather rapidly. The attempted spurt on Feb 6, 2009 faded quickly and expired on Feb 19, 2009. The short-term trader will trade on those spurts, which is occurring now, while mid-to-long-term investor should remain on the sidelines. Finally, the current spurt underway has potential for sustainability through April and as you saw, it did that. So far, it has performed well through May, but showing fatigue right now. The Near-term Indicant remains the primary focal point. As expected, a few weeks ago the Near-term Bull remains bullish, but tiring. Vector Pressure is starting to drift southward. Until you see the NTI’s blue curve collapse, simply enjoy your gains.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 20.1% since that sell signal. It has been bearish in 13-of the last 25-weeks. It has been bullish in seven of the last 11-weeks but has not yet qualified for a Mid-term Indicant buy signal.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on May 29, 2009. Unfortunately, it is down 9.2ince that buy signal. It should rebound and when it does other gold funds will receive a buy signal.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 11.4% since that sell signal. It has been bullish in 11-of the last 15-weeks, but solidly bearish the past two weeks.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 25.0% since that sell signal. It has been bullish in 13-of the last 16-weeks, but also solidly bearish the past two weeks.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 42.6% since that sell signal. It was also bearish the past two weeks.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 13.4% since that sell signal.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on June 24, 2009. It is up 1.4% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal, but on the last cycle it did not gain similar traction as that in 2003.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 14.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 26.4%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 26.0%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009. It is up 2.9% since the Near-term buy signal, annualizing at 16.4%.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on April 3, 2009 for the ten major indices. The ten major indices are up 9.2% since then. This “reluctant bull signal” was due to the strongly configuring near-term and quick-term bullish indicators. Do not be surprised at a bear signal once this short-term bullish cycle completes.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $26,843,282.

That beats buy and hold performance of $1,283,796 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $131,678. That beats buy and hold’s $90,009 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $184,483. That beats buy and hold’s $63,739 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1990.9%, 46.3%, and 189.4%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade, as the bear will gain momentum.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 24.6% since then. It is too risky to hold with the Near-term and threatening Quick-term bull cycle. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, current technical indicators are advising to avoid this fund until the Near-term bullish cycle expires.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 191.5% (annualized at 10.8%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 921-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning. However, the Long-term Indicant is getting very close to signaling bear. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below. You will notice long-term projections are bearish.

Keep in mind this recession is not yet as bad as the 1979-82 recession, but getting there. The Long-term Indicant is not influenced by short-term or mid-term cyclical behavior. It also takes into account longer-term performance within the model, both past and projected.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

The Near-term Bull is tiring and vulnerable to bearish ambition. Several Near-term blue curves collapsed. Thursday’s bullishness did not prevent that collapse of another NTI bullish blue curve. Only 14-NTI blue curves are moving north. That pales in comparison to the 28 moving north only 10-days ago.

Fundamentally, the market will be looking for earnings to support current positions and economic data that will suggest those earnings can increase. It is unlikely earnings will be supportive to a continuation of the current Near-term Bull underway.

Declining Vector Pressure is discerning to the Near-term Bull. Force Vectors are finally shifting back to the north. The expected bullish expression occurred last Thursday and there is room for some more for the next three to seven days. There are two points of interest here. 1) Will Force Vectors return to bullish domains in this cycle? 2) Will they re-elevate Vector Pressure. If the answer to these two questions turn out to be “no,” then the Near-term Bull will be followed by a Near-term Bear. Breadth and depth are unknown.

The Near-term Bull is 16-weeks old. The average Near-term life cycles approximate 10-14-weeks. This does not mean they are always followed by a reversal cycle. Extended inflections can occur for several days or even weeks ahead of a renewed Near-term bull or bear cycle. Unfortunately, the bull’s responses to insults by the bear have been puny; even last Thursday’s bullish response was fractional in magnitude to last Monday’s bearish behavior. This suggests this Near-term Bull cycle is nearing expiration. This also threatens the new Quick-term Bull.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled bull for the eleven major indices on Mar 31, 2009 and bear for Contrarian VIX on the same day. The 11-major indices are up by an average of 16.4% since that bull signal, annualizing at 68.5%. The VIX is down 41.2% since its bear signal 12.4-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for the eleven major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 2.3% since their respective bull signals an average of 7.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 15.2%. Contrarian VIX is down 27.6% since the QTI signaled bear 10.1-weeks ago.

Until you see Force Vectors dip into bearish domains and/or prices fall to the Near-term green curve, the Near-term Bull continues to survive. It survivability is under assault right now. Several indices are within pennies of NTI green curve. NYSE NTI blue curve collapsed on Jun 19, 2009. The S&P400 NTI blue curve collapsed on Jun 23, 2009. The Dow30 collapsed on June 24, 2009. This does not mean the bear is about to become solidly dominant, but its ambition is penetrating the bull’s spirit.

On-going attribute watch for major indices:

-Near-term Directional Intensity Unanimity-All eleven major indices received a bull signal on March 31, 2009. They all bounced north of their respective Near-term Bullish Blue Curves in response to bearish aggression on Mar 27 and Mar 30. That was “near-term” bullish synergy with breadth, following the initial surge in early March.

QTI Red Bull Status-Bullish bias. Seven indices are red bulls and thus protective against dynamic bearishness.

QTI Yellow Bear Status-Non-bullish bias. Ten of 11-indices above bearish yellow. The DJIA dipped below today, but NTI-Bull remains in tact.

-NTI Blue Bull Direction-Non-determinant bias. Jun 22, 2009-Mon-NYSE NTI blue curve collapsed. Jun 23, 2009-Tue-S&P400 NTI blue curve collapsed. Jun 24, 2009-Dow30 collapsed.

-NTI Green Bear Direction – Non-bearish bias. Ten of 11-major indices moving north with VIX moving south. The DJIA also started moving south, but very immature and not immediately threatening to the Near-term Bull.

-STI Force Vector Position- Non-determinant bias. Jun 17, 2009-Bearishly mature cycle favors a bullish response. Jun 18, 2009-Thu-It is somewhat discerning Vector Pressure offered no resistance to assertions by the bear. Jun 25, 2009-Thu-Strong bullish behavior supports Jun 17-comment. There is room for more bullishness the next two to four days, although not expected to be strong. Volatility remains appropriate with current configurations.

-STI Force Vector Direction – Non-bearish bias. Jun 25, 2009-Some are shifting back into bullish direction.

-Vector Pressure Position- Bullish bias. Jun 26, 2009-Eight of 11-indices in bullish domains; protective against dynamic and sustainable bearishness. That is down from nine yesterday.

-Vector Pressure Direction- Mild bullish bias. 10-moving bullishly.

-Tangential Protection - None of the 11-major indices possess this attribute.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection - Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following constructions remain pertinent:

>ETF#02-SPY will be at or below $82.35 at some future point.

>ETF#05-XLF will be at or below $9.50 at some future point.

>ETF#06-EWJ will be at or below $8.50 at some future point.

>ETF#07-DIA will be at or below $77.50 at some future point.

>ETF#08-EFA will be at or below $39.35 at some future point.

>ETF#09-XLK will be at or below $15.35 at some future point.

>ETF#15-IVV will be at or below $81.50 at some future point.

>ETF#16-IWO will be at or below $46.75 at some future point.

>ETF#18-MDY will be at or below $90.60 at some future point.

>ETF#19-XLB will be at or below $22.40 at some future point.

>ETF#22-IWF will be at or below $35.80 at some future point.

>ETF#23-IWD will be at or below $41.80 at some future point.

>ETF#24-IWN will be at or below $42.30 at some future point.

>ETF#25-DVY will be at or below $33.50 at some future point.

>ETF#26-IJR will be at or below $37.30 at some future point.

>ETF#29-XLY will be at or below $19.80 at some future point.

>ETF#30-XLI will be at or below $19.70 at some future point.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. There is one chart containing both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve. The persistent Near-term Bull continues delaying construction.

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators remain lethargic; mostly due to seasonally depressed activity. This should enhance volatility as the market transforms from indecisiveness to the next cycle of directional intensity.

Jun 25, 2009-Thu-Volume on strong bullish behavior was less than last Monday’s volume on stronger bearish behavior. Although these two data points are not conclusive in the underlying non-bullish assumptive relationships, you can see from the charts that the current Near-term bullish cycle has not been strongly supported by volume. Again, though, summer months are usually low volume, unless strong fundamentals suggest a real bull is moving ahead. In other words, behavior is merely the expected volatility one sees on declining volume, even though mildly favoring bearish ambition.

Jun 26, 2009-Fri-Volume was relatively high on flat market behavior. This, coupled with current Near-term configurations suggest non-bullishness.

Short-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 16.5%, annualizing at 78.8% since their buy signals an average of 10.9-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding six ETF’s. They are up an average of 3.3% since their sell signals 0.5-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signal.

Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up an average of 6.8% since their buy signals an average of 9.2-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 38.3%. Six ETF’s are down by an average of 3.7% since their sell signals an average of 3.8-weeks ago.

Quick-term Red Bulls significantly reduce the threat of dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. As long as there are Quick-term Red Bulls, one does not have to worry about bearish dominance. Breadth protection has narrowed from 28-Red Bulls to 13-Red Bulls the past ten days.

Vector Pressure in bullish domains is also a bear depressant. There are 17-ETF’s with this configuration, which remain in support of the Near-term and Quick-term bulls. That support is no longer solid. Unfortunately, all but three are moving south, suggesting the Near-term Bull is nearing expiration.

Vector Pressure continues drifting south, which is non bullish. Prices had been struggling under bullish blue. The Near-term Bull cycle is being challenged by the bear. The Near-term Bull is aging. There was no bullish surge the past four weeks. Even with last Thursday’s bullish aggression, there was no impact to the underlying forces that lean toward increasing bearish aggression in the next two to three weeks.

As stated the past few days, bearishly maturing Force Vectors are also calling for a bullish response to recent insults by the bear. Until today, bullish responses have been puny, adding to discernment regarding the longevity of the Near-term Bull and the Quick-term Bull. Even last Thursday’s bullish aggression was fractional to bearish aggressions earlier in the week.

ETF#28-EWT NTI blue curve collapsed on Friday, June 12, 2009. Force Vectors fell into bearish domains. This is an early indication of a tiring Near-term Bull. June 22, 2009-Mon-Bullish blue collapsed for the following ETF’s; #2-SPY, #3-XLE, #11-GLD, #17-IYR, #19-XLB, #20-EEM, #21-EWZ, #23-EWO, and #30-XLI. The reason all of these did not receive a sell signal is because their Vector Pressure continues residence in bullish domains. Their configurations are teetering on selling and avoidance. June 23, 2009-Tue-Six more NTI blue curves collapsed. June 25, 2009-Wed-One more collapsed. Now more than half of the NTI bullish blue curves have collapsed. Jun 26, 2009-One more collapsed. That brings the total collapsed NTI bullish blue curves to 18 among the non-contrarian ETF’s.

Collapsing blue, alone, does not correlate to the expiration of NTI bullish cycles. It is simply advising the bull is wounded with questionable sustainability. It may win the battle, but risks are too high for holding all ETF’s. The Near-term Indicant has signaled sell for those with the most vulnerable configurations.

The selling and avoidance of the 99-non-contrarian funds were triggered by the Mid-term Indicant. However, there was one Mid-term buy signal on week ending May 29, 2009. Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Jun 26, 2009-Fri-The bull and bear are waging a significant battle at this time. Aggressive buying should be delayed, as obviations of Near-term directional intensity are minimal. The Near-term Bull remains in tact, but under attack by the bear. Force Vectors are rising, which is non-bearish. If they do not cross above Vector Pressure on this cycle, the Near-term bull’s survivability will be in jeopardy. Jun 25, 2009-Thu-Near-term Bull remains under severe threat by the bear, but it has not yet expired. Today’s bullish behavior was expected by virtue of mature Force Vectors. It will be interesting to see if Force Vectors climb back into bullish domains. If not, the bear will dominate. This should be obviated within a week or two. Jun 24, 2009-Wed-NTI’s bullish blue curves continue collapsing. Bull is not responding to mature Force Vectors. Although this sounds alarming, it is merely an early indication the Near-term bull is in trouble. It may storm back, but right now is very vulnerable to the bear’s ambition. Jun 23, 2009-Tue-Several more NTI blue curves collapsed today. Three more sell signals were issued. That is five sell signals the past two days. Force Vectors are mature, suggesting a bullish bounce would not be out of order. 25-ETF’s have Vector Pressure in bullish domains, which suggests bearish behavior on the immediate horizon will be tame. The Near-term Bull remains in tact, but under assault by the bear. Jun 22, 2009-Mon-Ten ETF bullish blue curves collapsed today. Many are at or just below their bearish green curves. Jun 19, 2009-Fri-Bullish bounces continue with anemic expressions, offering additional evidence this Near-term Bull is lacking ambition.

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for QID on Monday, June 22, 2009. It is down 7.6% since that buy signal. The buy was a bit unusual as it was not accompanied with a sell signal for QQQQ. The ETF inversely doubles the movement of QQQQ. As you can tell, its Force Vector is mature from its recent bullish cycle. Even with that, the Near-term Indicant signaled buy as its configurations remain extremely bullish.

As previously stated, its Vector Pressure is at a minimum, supporting its bullish potential. QQQQ is not yet bearish, so this is a defensive buy in addition to QID’s favorable configurations supporting a move north.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on March 26, 2009. It is down 29.6% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $41.61 and still falling.

ETF#03-Natural Resources - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on June 24, 2009. Although the King will get his $80-oil, he may have to direct more production cuts first. Economic activity may not do it alone. This ETF has too many bearish attributes to continue holding. It is up 1.4% since the sell signals.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 14.4% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 26.4%. The model’s intent is to beat buy and hold. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 2.9% since then, annualizing at 16.4%. This is now solidifying in bullish position. Fundamentally, it is one of the few ETF’s that could continue to increase in price in the face of an overall bearish stock market. Declining Vector Pressure is discerning, though. It is enjoying tangential protection and thus the reason for no sell signal.

Gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

ETF#14-Long Government received a buy signal on June 22, 2009 from the Near-term Indicant. Vector Pressure remains positioned to support bullish behavior, and very much so. Its Force Vector crossed into bullish domains, supporting an increased probability of bullish behavior. There is potential for a pullback, but too risky to avoid at this time. It is up 2.2% since that buy signal, annualizing at 195.4%.

This fund is down 2.6% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on May 1, 2009, when it fell below bearish yellow. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it crosses above bearish yellow curve and has a Near-term hold signal.

Fundamentally, this fund may not be viewed as a safety net with trillions of paper money not backed by productive efforts or possessions of raw materials.

Major ETF Events

June 26, 2009-One more ETF bullish blue collapsed. The NTI-Bull is wounded and not getting better, but it remains a bull, nonetheless.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Although mild, bearish divergence occurred last week. Thirteen of the past fifteen weeks have enjoyed combined bullish convergence/divergence. This remains solidly bullish, but also welcoming the bear to offset overloading bias. Fundamentals suggest the anticipated economic improvements may not manifest.

Obviations of sustainable bullishness do not occur until there are four consecutive weeks of bullish convergence. That occurred twelve weeks ago.

In spite of the newly forming bullish cycle, the fundamental bear market has not yet expired. Depending on political landscape, this bear could last for decades. FDR-like economic meddling will continue to erode economic wealth. Those responsible are either 1) stupid, 2) do not care, or 3) have motives that typically lead to war.

Indicant Conclusion

99-of the 100-funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant are down by an average of 25.8% since their sell signals an average of 51.0-weeks ago. Although the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models are holding most of the ETF’s, the Mid-term Indicant will not signal buy for most of the Mutual Funds until they remove themselves from bearish domains. Current configurations suggest it could be a year or longer for that to occur. Although the Near-term Bull has been impressive, it has not shifted the funds to a buy position; other than MF#28-Fidelity Gold a few weeks ago.

As stated the past few weeks, interest rates appear to be stabilizing similar to oil prices. Once the economy stabilizes, expect interest rates and/or inflation to mount a significant increase. Neither of those events will excite the bull. On the contrary, the bear will dominate the markets.

Commodity prices continue moving north, although softening a bit last week. As previously stated, these increases have mitigated deflationary concerns. Unfortunately, they are expressing an interest in inflation. The bull does not like either. If inflation becomes the issue, the market will turn bearish, but probably not of the same magnitude if the confrontation was deflation.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

06/28/09

Jun 21, 2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 6, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

This Week’s Report

Stupendous Edifices Attract Economic Overhead

Large man-made structures are more impressive than majestic mountains or dense tropical forests to many. Man-made structures accommodate many more people than raw natural places. Take a look at New York, Washington D.C., Chicago, Los Angeles, Tokyo, Singapore, etc. There are more people in those cities than all the desserts, prairies, and jungles combined. This is conclusive proof of the first statement in this paragraph.

Please click the following link to view a long period of capitalistic founders and the eventual “inheritance” of dilettante managers and the conclusion of the influence by the dilettantes. These pictures clearly display the effects of truly great people, such as Sam McLaughlin. It also clearly displays what happens when the dilettantes move in and take over the reigns.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/Supplements/Jun/2009-0620.htm

At one time, Dearborn, Michigan was just raw land. Henry Ford worked on a farm in Dearborn. There was no stupendous edifice in Dearborn during young Henry’s days as a farmhand. As a young man, Henry and his wife, Abigail, tinkered in their backyard and garage building an automobile. There was no stupendous edifice surrounding their simple abode and thus no one around from the economic overhead group (anyone that does not work in manufacturing, agriculture, or extraction). The May 24, 2009 Weekly Report describes the economic overhead group.

A few years later, Ford had some success in car building and moved from his house to a slightly larger location, where he could build sixteen to twenty cars a day. Henry was not the only one building cars in the early 1900’s. There were over twenty automobile producers in the early days in North America.

Ford was fortunate enough to have Charles E. Sorenson on his payroll. Charles was disgusted watching the workers walk to and from the coffee room and their lethargic production methods. Charles was especially upset with the lost time with workers walking from the production work centers to the warehouse to retrieve parts needed to build the car. Ford put Charles in charge of production. Charles then set up the assembly line inside the warehouse and lined up the parts where they were needed for assemblage to the automobile. With that, many of Ford’s competitors failed through the profound productivity gains by the efforts of Charles E. Sorenson. Charles was not motivated by making more money. He was focused only doing what is right. One could not even refer to Charles as a capitalist. He was a hireling, but no dilettante.

Alfred P. Sloan was a supplier to Ford, as well as other automobile manufacturers. Mr. Sloan ran the Hyatt Bearing Company before his employment at General Motors. Mr. Sloan took note of Charles Sorenson’s superior manufacturing methods and eventually applied them to General Motors years later. Many call it the Ford Assembly Line, but it was Charles E. Sorenson’s idea and manifestation. Mr. Sorenson was no dilettante. He was real and earned his way, by taking a practice and improving it. Dilettantes do not do this. They, for the most part, spend their time primping or creating problems where none exists.

About four hours from Dearborn to the east of Toronto in Oshawa, Ontario, Canada, another young man was also building automobiles. Oshawa was the home of Sam McLaughlin, founder of McLaughlin Motors, which became General Motors of Canada in 1915. Sam McLaughlin ran GM of Canada from 1915 through the early 1970’s. He never lost money in all those years.

Ford and McLaughlin did not attend college. They both started at the very beginning and created great organizations. Their efforts led to a very well established middle class as well as honest hard working millionaires. Governments had nothing to do with it. Politicians were few in number during the early years and had not yet developed the immaculate “primping” skills you see in today’s politicians. Their ability to be destructive was still inefficient.

While Ford, McLaughlin, and thousands of others like them, such as Earle P. Halliburton in Duncan, Oklahoma, were creating great organizations, the social elite continued their attendance at Harvard, Yale, and other “so-called” great academic institutions. The stupendous edifices in government buildings and banking were their primary attraction. One could get their nails done and not have to worry about grease on the finger-tips. Those are pure members of economic overhead.

During the early years of the Ford, McLaughlin, Halliburton careers, those social snobs would not consider having dinner with them. The “snobs” gravitated toward stupendous edifices, such as investing banking and the government. Those snobs, FDR included, never created one job. They only garnished wealth for themselves by garnishing monies from the honest, hard working efforts of the likes Ford, McLaughlin, and Halliburton. FDR has fooled many, but as you can see, history is being rewritten right here and far more accurately than what we learned in school.

During the early years of Halliburton, the only folks who gravitated toward Halliburton were those not afraid of handling a 48” pipe wrench. FDR-types viewed those who would handle a 48” pipe wrench as inferior, stupid, and needing direction. There is certainly nothing wrong with being well educated. Looking down on productive members of society is what is wrong. Some folks believe that hearing or reading and then successfully regurgitating to a test somehow offers testimonials of superiority.

Over the years, Ford, McLaughlin, and Halliburton built stupendous edifices. Large buildings were constructed for employees to perform their duties. More and more people were attracted to those large buildings. Instinctively, people know vast amounts of money flows through stupendous edifices. With minimal effort activities, such as writing resumes, one could gain a job at one of those stupendous edifices, where the money flows. Dilettantes are especially attracted to stupendous edifices, where they can grab some of the money with minimal low risk effort.

Federal governments around the world epitomize stupendous edifices. One employed by the Federal Government does not have to endure too much tension. Making money through ones own effort epitomizes tension. Working for the government and large companies, tension is minimal. Avoiding tension is not talent. On the contrary, it can be correlated to that of a leech.

Bill Gates could have remained at Harvard after his first year and enjoyed a nice life with minimal tensions. After spending a year at Harvard, one can ascertain he tired of learning a lot about “irrelevance.” Michael Dell could have continued at the University of Texas, but took the high risk route and created a great company in Round Rock, Texas. Both men did not take the easy route of hearing/reading and successfully regurgitating to a test. They both could think. Many of you have encountered “perceived geniuses” who could not think. Without a pontificating professor espousing irrelevance, they are at a loss. (Not all professors do this. Many of mine hit right on point and I am forever grateful for their honesty).

There is certainly nothing wrong with being “educated.” Unfortunately, it is overly emphasized as being of sole importance. The directors and officers at Enron were all highly “educated.” Earle P. Halliburton, Sam McLaughlin, Henry Ford, and thousands of others like them offered “relevance” and were not highly “educated.” Relevance is delivered through increased quality of life. Only capitalistic organizations provide that.

Politicians are wealth destroyers. If they decided all things, everyone would get poorer. Right now, politicians, many of whom are highly “educated,” are promoting man-made global warming. That is a vehicle for them gaining power over the masses. They are gaining momentum by the increasing number of followers to their message.

Most of those politicians are “liberal arts” types. That means they know very little about the physical and chemical dynamics of the universe and earth. They align themselves with scientists who support their desires and ignore those scientists who disagree. If not enough scientist side with the politicians, money flow, approved by politicians will escalate the numbers of supportive scientist; most of whom are dependent on politician’s money distributions.

The right thing to do is to ignore the arguments about global warming until all scientists agree, just as they all now agree with Einstein’s relativity theory. Several years elapsed before scientists accepted Einstein’s proclamations. Once man-made global warming is agreed upon by all responsible scientist, including those employed at Exxon, then and only then, it could be considered as fact. Until then, it is just mumbo jumbo.

Northern Germany at one time was infested with gators and snakes. So, at one time in the past, there was global warming; well before Ford’s polluting combustion engines and Earle P. Halliburton helping extract oil from the earth.

Of course, politicians seldom do what is right. They lean toward gaining power and control. When the masses “believe” in politicians in a majority, rest assured poverty will expand and war will follow. It has always been that way and always will be that way. Non wealth producers must behave dishonestly to accumulate their wealth. That dishonesty eventually leads to their demise and all those around them. Unfortunately, it can take a few generations of poverty before the stupidity is recognized.

The stock market cannot go up for very long when politicians get along. Wealth declines when that happens. That is evident by either higher taxes or high inflation, which is a hidden tax. That invites the bear to dominate the markets. Right now, the Near-term Bull remains in tact, but it is tiring. The press is consumed with politicians who are robbing productivity by their daily presentations where non-productive members of society set around and listen to them. Rest assured the bear is watching this and with glee.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals. There have been 540-sell signals since October 26, 2007 and 39-buy signals since October 31, 2008.

Although there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 322-stocks and funds of 344- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 27.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 54.0-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Jun 20, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 159-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 157.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 192.7% (annualized at 63.6%). There were 163-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 17.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 27.9-weeks earlier. (There were 22-sell signals one year ago).

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 313-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Jun 22, 2007. They were up by an average of 127.9% (annualized at 62.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of 106.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 31-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 14.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 28.8-weeks earlier.

There were 207-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jun 23, 2006 since their buy signals an average of 112.4-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 143.6% (annualized at 66.5%). There were 132-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 6.4% from their respective sell signals an average of 14.4-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Jun 18, 2004, there were 249-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 72.0% (annualized at 70.8%) since their respective buy signals an average of 52.8-weeks earlier. There were 42-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 18.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 26.3-weeks earlier.

On Jun 21, 2003, there were 289-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 44.5%, annualizing at 110.4%, since the buy signals an average of 27.2-weeks earlier. There were three avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 27.5% since their sell signals an average of 27.2-weeks earlier.

On Jun 21, 2002, there were 81-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 37.2%, annualizing at 51.4%. The 201-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 24.0% since sell signals an average of 9.5-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

All updated information can be accessed from the following link. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

There no Mid-term Indicant buy signals this weekend. Fundamentals remain too weak and the outlook for them remains bearish.

If this cooling phase is followed with more Near-term bullishness, the Mid-term Indicant will generate more buy signals in spite of poor fundamentals.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 17.2% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 64.0% and the S&P500 is up 18.6% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 58.0% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming.

The Dow is down 39.7% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 36.1% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is down 39.4% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking, like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

There is one major point here. If the Near-term Indicant is signaling avoid, all short-term traders should be avoiding, in spite of the potential optimism in the prior paragraph. The longer-term trader should continue patiently awaiting buying clearance from the Mid-term Indicant. Older and strategic longer-term traders are still up by triple digits from the 1991 bull signal by the Long-term Indicant. However, if inflation manifests, triple digit gains over a twenty year period will not be enough. Government spending without paralleled support from the only three-wealth building economic sectors (manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction), inflation is expected to manifest and with gusto. If it does not, economic books will be rewritten. At this point, do not be surprised at $500 oil by 2015. This is especially true if the Chinese accelerate capitalistic endeavors.

The NASDAQ is down 63.8% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 39.7% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 27.2% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

The Dow is down 1.7% so far this year. The NASDAQ is up 15.9% so far this year. Keep in mind the post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since 1832. So far, the stock market is conforming to this historical standard, but the NASDAQ is currently arguing with that standard.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 19.3% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%., which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 23.3% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which is consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 23.4%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 0.8% and finished up by 8.6% for that year, which was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. It was down by 3.9% in 2005’s post election year, which maintained congruency to the historical standards of losses. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. 2005 finished up by a mere 1.4%, which was an excellent year based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. In 2006, it was down 4.3% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 8.8% at this time in 2007 and finished that year in positive territory by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. It was down 7.2% at this time last year. The NASDAQ finished down by 40.5% in 2008. That was contrarian performance to historical election year bullishness and the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% due to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models continuing with bull/hold signals.

Most of the longer-term holdings of stocks and funds continue with “avoid” signals, but a few are still holding. The risk of continued holding, even for the likes of Apple, remains relaxed.

The Mid-term Charts are being updated and thus the color coding of curves is changed. It is unlikely the market will not enjoy long-lasting bullish cycles for the next ten to fifteen years with the possible exception of Asian markets. The charts are being enhanced to support that sort of market climate.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Short-term rates continue configuring at what appears to be a cyclical minimum. Normally, that would threaten the bull, but they are so low the immediate prognosis borders minutia.

Mortgage rates continue moving north and aggressively so, but most likely an aberration. Such a movement is asynchronous to underlying market forces.

As stated the past several weeks, you can see some early warning signs of impending inflation. Oil prices continue to rise. OPEC will institute supply reductions. This time around, there is little likelihood of cheating members in the OPEC organization. They want prices to stabilize at $80 per barrel. The Saudi King concurs. Over the years, we have learned the Saudi King rules when it comes to oil prices.

Demand for fuel will not subside with increasing socialism, but the rate of consumption will be muted with a decline in capitalistic opportunities. OPEC will regulate supply to that muted demand. The socialistic elite will continue living in a life of comfort, while they regulate discomfort for the masses. It is amazing how history continues to repeat. It always concludes with the removal of the descendents of the social elite from power and sometimes not very kindly. The problem is that it takes a generation or two to see their evil before “kicking them out.”

Research and development for alternative fuel sources will slow down during this socialistic phase of humanity. That will be inflationary. The capitalistic system will elevate the economy; nothing else will. If socialism existed to the extent of today in 1900, we would still be traveling by foot or horse and buggy. Maybe that is good; maybe bad, but it is a fact, in spite of the billions of meaningless and varying opinions of what is best; car or buggy.

Politicians will offer many deflecting proclamations, such as “we are investing in alternative sources of energy.” What they will not tell you is what is really going to happen. That is, money will funnel through the bureaucracy with the normal corruption into the hands of hazy and drug infested research institutions, where the intellectual elite will live a life of comfort. One cannot find any history that suggests government leadership into any product of value except for the nuclear bomb.

As stated the past ten weeks, the problem with the devolving economy is that those buying goods and services are not producers. Although some of the very rich are highly productive, they are too few in numbers to offset the increasingly higher number of the lazy poor-“give-me” generation. That will further depress the supply side, thereby adding socioeconomic problems in addition to the inflationary threats. The political structure is shortsighted due to “vote getting” mentality. Without strategic vision or for that matter, capability, political leaders endure their psychological problems and with that, wealth destruction by them continues.

There is no change from the past twenty-one weeks. Interest rates remain at record low levels. That normally fosters a bullish stock market. Unfortunately, souring economic conditions at an accelerating rate have reduced the normal bullish relationship of low interest rates as irrelevant. Although rates are low, the process of borrowing money is not a capitalistic relationship between borrower and seller and thus irrelevant to the capital markets. Government intervention is going to wreak havoc on the United States economy. Governments simply cannot perform due to their riskless and reckless decision-making of using everyone else’s money plus a printing press.

Some governments may figure it out and offer a business-friendly climate. Capitalistic organizations will flourish in such countries and with that, U.S. politicians will lose power, which is the way it should always be and setup to be by the great Thomas Jefferson.

As stated the past several weeks, the idea of capitalism is to borrow or capitalize and expanding the supply of money (wealth) through productive effort. That is not what is going on right now. Wealth creation will continue to slow and maybe even capsize. With that, there will be a reduction of the quality of life, which typically leads to war. The Koreans are preparing, as they live in a life of misery. They are incapable of resolving their misery, internally. Therefore, there is an increasing propensity to spread that misery more broadly. This is one of those human nature things that leads to spreading misery. From that, destruction expands exponentially.

However, as the world shrinks and asset ownership is not isolated geographically, world wars will diminish as an option to overcome displeasure. It will indeed be difficult for political leaders to order the bombing of assets in countries owned by their constituents. Of course, North Koreans do not own assets. Their political leadership has possession of all of their assets.

The destruction of international assets will threaten the livelihood of any political leader who governs over asset owners. That is a good thing. It will be interesting to see what replaces world war. Displeasure by the masses is certainly not an ever-lasting option. In the end, though, those with the most talent at physical object creation are always the winners. Abstract jibber-jabbers have no chance.

The problem with isolated spots around the world such as North Korea, Afghanistan, etc. is the omission of hard assets. There is no financial reason to prohibit their cultural annihilation. So, it will probably happen. Money and asset possession are always at the bottom line of any conflict among people. Animals are similar in their protection of marked territory.

The U.S. dollar continues enduring resistance in strengthening its bullish cycle. The dollar’s significance as an international currency remains under attack by the Chinese, who will eventually become the economic world power if they accelerate capitalistic causes. The United States has been weakened severely by its “tyranny by the majority system” and excessive focus on socio-economic programs that have absolutely nothing to do with cultural strength and economic wealth. The printing presses and “politburo style politics” in the U.S. will reduce the dollar to just another world currency.

The U.S. economy is perceived to have the greatest chance of returning to robustness when compared to other countries. As stated the past twenty-one weeks, the exception to this is China, who may or may not need U.S. consumption to bolster their economy. A weakening dollar against the Yuan may enjoy a longer-term labor relationship with the West. However, the stock market is focused only on the next six to nine months. China’s government can undo this bullish outlook in seconds, so keep your eye on it (the government). Their political leaders are no different from ours; that is they have the same “control freak” psychological problems as those of the west.

The commodity’s bearish cycle continues configuring at a bottom and has recently penetrated the neutral zone. It is already figured at prices supporting a low economic case. As long as they are bouncy near their cyclical minimums, the economic outlook should be considered as no worse than present. Although that is not positive, the magnitude of negatives has at least flattened for the time being.

As stated 38-weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental. You will see that prognosis continuing in spite of recent bullish expressions.

As stated 33-weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.”

As stated 29-weeks ago, this bear has teeth, is hungry, and is nowhere near expiration. Cyclical spurts of a bullish configuration will occur from time to time, but the trend should remain bearish throughout this year and into 2010. Bullish spurts will occur from time to time. As we learned from the November 28, 2008 – January 21, 2009 bullish spurt, profit potential from them is limited and in some cases disappoint rather rapidly. The attempted spurt on Feb 6, 2009 faded quickly and expired on Feb 19, 2009. The short-term trader will trade on those spurts, which is occurring now, while mid-to-long-term investor should remain on the sidelines. Finally, the current spurt underway has potential for sustainability through April and as you saw, it did that. So far, it has performed well. The Near-term Indicant remains the primary focal point. As expected, a few weeks ago the Near-term Bull remains bullish, but tiring. Vector Pressure is starting to drift southward. Until you see the NTI’s blue curve collapse, simply enjoy your gains.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 20.6% since that sell signal. It has been bearish in twelve of the last 24-weeks. It has been bullish in seven of the last ten weeks but has not yet qualified for a Mid-term Indicant buy signal.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on May 29, 2009. Unfortunately, it is down 10.7% since that buy signal. It should rebound and when it does other gold funds will receive a buy signal.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 9.3% since that sell signal. It has been bullish in eleven of the last 14-weeks, but solidly bearish last week.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 23.3% since that sell signal. It has been bullish in 13 of the last 15-weeks, but also solidly bearish last week.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 40.6% since that sell signal. It was also bearish last week.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 10.5% since that sell signal.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on April 3, 2009. It is up 0.1% since then, annualizing at 1.0%. The Quick-term Indicant continues to signal hold from the May 4, 2009 buy signal. It is up 6.9% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 13.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 26.4%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 26.0%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009. It is up 2.4% since the Near-term buy signal, annualizing at 15.6%.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on April 3, 2009 for the ten major indices. The ten major indices are up 9.0% since then. This “reluctant bull signal” was due to the strongly configuring near-term and quick-term bullish indicators. Do not be surprised at a bear signal once this short-term bullish cycle completes.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $27,165,654.

That beats buy and hold performance of $1,299,213 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $132,012. That beats buy and hold’s $90,237 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $183,404. That beats buy and hold’s $63,366 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1990.9%, 46.3%, and 189.4%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 23.4% since then. It is too risky to hold with the Near-term and threatening Quick-term bull cycle. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, current technical indicators are advising to avoid this fund until the Near-term bullish cycle expires.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 195.0% (annualized at 11.0%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 920-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning. However, the Long-term Indicant is getting very close to signaling bear. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below. You will notice long-term projections are bearish.

Keep in mind this recession is not yet as bad as the 1979-82 recession. The Long-term Indicant is not influenced by short-term or mid-term cyclical behavior. It also takes into account longer-term performance within the model, both past and projected.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

As stated on Wednesday, June 3, 2009, some attributes are too hot and need to cool. Combinations of mild bearishness and mild bullishness are indicative of this requirement. Current configurations suggest any bearish expressions are mere technical adjustments and not threatening to the Near-term Bull now underway. (June 11, 2009-You have witnessed that the past two weeks with meandering market behavior). (June 16, 2009-This meandering behavior is being followed with bearish aggression). (June 18, 2009-Bullish responses to recent aggressions by the bear have been too timid. However, configurations remain in support of additional bullish responses).

The rising Near-term Green curve offers non-bearish resistance. Since it is well above buy signal values, it is a good idea to set stop losses equal to or a point below green prices. Green will continue to rise so periodic stop-loss adjustments should be applied to lock in your short-term profits. Some of you stopped out on ETF#28, EWT, which endured that fate on June 15, 2009. The Near-term Indicant is on the verge of selling this fund, but needing just a bit more support from similar funds in addition to Vector Pressure’s departure from bullish domains. Current configurations suggest a bullish bounce would not be out of order before succumbing to the bear’s desire.

Declining Vector Pressure is discerning to the Near-term Bull. Force Vectors have moved south. They are mature, which opens bullish opportunity. If the bull responds with less gusto that recent bearish expressions, do not be surprised at the expiration of the current Near-term Bull. The Near-term Blue curve will obviate any potential shifts from bullish to bearish directional bias. The bias continues to be bullish, though, as the NTI bullish blue curve continues moving north. It will collapse ahead of the Near-term Bull’s expiration. It has now encountered one collapse (ETF#28, EWT).

The Near-term Bull is 15-weeks old. The average Near-term life cycles approximate 10-14-weeks. This does not mean they are always followed by a reversal cycle. Extended inflections can occur for several days or even weeks ahead of a renewed Near-term bull or bear cycle. As long as the Near-term Bull remains in tact, coupled with the Quick-term Bull, just relax and enjoy, regardless of any alarming commentary in these reports. We have to report on threatening attributes when they configure with heightened risk of holding or avoiding. There is some cause for concern with ETF#28, EWT, Near-term blue curve collapsing and Vector Pressure offering no resistance to insults by the bear.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled bull for the eleven major indices on Mar 31, 2009 and bear for Contrarian VIX on the same day. The 11-major indices are up by an average of 16.3% since that bull signal, annualizing at 73.9%. The VIX is down 36.6% since its bear signal 11.4-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for the eleven major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 2.2% since their respective bull signals an average of 6.8-weeks ago. They are annualizing at 16.6%. Contrarian VIX is down 21.9% since the QTI signaled bear 9.1-weeks ago.

Until you see Force Vectors dip into bearish domains and/or prices fall to the Near-term green curve, the Near-term Bull continues to survive.

On-going attribute watch for major indices:

QTI Red Bull Status-Bias favoring bull. All major indices are now Red Bulls, but the recent combination of bearish and non-bullish behavior has propelled them south of the bullish red curve.

QTI Yellow Bear Status-Bias favoring bull, but embryonic and vulnerable to bear.

-NTI Blue Bull Direction-Moving north, favoring the Near-term Bull.

-NTI Green Bear Direction – Moving north; non-bearish.

-STI Force Vector Position- Below Vector Pressure. It is somewhat discerning Vector Pressure offered no resistance to assertions by the bear.

-STI Force Vector Direction – South; non-bullish, but maturing and offering potential for bullish bounce. (Friday’s bullish bounce was puny, suggesting the bull’s exhaustion).

-Vector Pressure Position- Bullish domains; protective against dynamic bearishness.

-Vector Pressure Direction- Now moving south, offering potential assistance to bearish ambition.