March 2011 Weekly Stock Market Reports

Mar 27, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 03, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Bull or Bear Part 2

The Mid-term Indicant is currently tracking 100-mutual funds with a couple of NLT records. NLT means no longer traded. That occurs when a stock or fund loses its symbol, which correlates with going out of business or asset consumption by other organizations. There are a couple of empty spots with NLT records that will be filled in a few months. Suggestions are welcome.

The Mid-term Indicant has been tracking several of these funds for several years. One method for tracking different economic sectors is through mutual fund research, as opposed to subscribing to economic information regarding sectors.

Fidelity Funds were among the first to isolate economic sectors. As the years have gone by, several other family funds manifested. Vanguard emerged as one of the better family funds by the mid-1990’s. Since then, Exchange Traded Funds have been developed, offering greater latitude and liquidity to investors.

Prior to the great bear market of 2008 that actually began in 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for all the Mutual Funds it tracks except for the lone short fund, MF#22-ProShares Ultra Short.

Mutual Fund tracking by the Mid-term Indicant is much more stable than stocks. There are fewer buy and sell signals for mutual funds. That is because it is much more difficult to manipulate their prices. Doing so requires much more collusion than it takes to manipulate a common stock price. Also dampening volatility is that plusses and minuses among funds’ holdings offset one another.

To get a historical glimpse of the Mid-term Indicant’s Mutual Fund performance tracking, click this sentence. As you can see from the chart, the average performance of those with hold signals were up over 125% in mid-2008. Scrolling down a bit, though, you can see those with hold signals had dwindled down to less than sixty from the 99 that were being held prior to the beginning of the bear market.

As you can see from the chart, the Mid-term signaled hold for sixty or more funds from late 2004 through early 2008. The selling spree ahead of the 2008 bear market began in early 2007 and by September 2008, all 99-mutual funds were avoided by the Mid-term Indicant.

All strong bull markets require full sectored support. Although rolling recessions through various economic sectors occur from time to time, bull markets endure mere bearish spurts as opposed to shifting to a bearish cycle within the damaged sectors.

However, there are two non-contrarian sectors/funds not yet participating in the stock market bull.

The Mid-term Indicant is currently avoiding three mutual funds. Two of them relate to economic sectors and the other is a contrarian fund. The contrarian fund is the aforementioned Pro Shares Ultra Short Fund.

All three of these funds can be viewed at the webpage by clicking this sentence. As you can see, the two bearish economic sectors remaining from the 2008 bear market and related economic recession are financials and home equities.

MF#42-FDISX-Fidelity Financial Services is down 45.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 9, 2007. As you can see from its chart, it crossed above bearish yellow twice since that sell signal. Each crossing was confronted with a bearish response. This funds’ holdings consists primarily of the “too big to fail” banks and related institutions. Of course, banks do not create wealth. Consequently, the anemic performance of this fund holdings are for the most part irrelevant to economic strength.

MF#45-FSVLX-Fidelity Home Finance is down 75.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on January 26, 2007. As you can see from its charts, it has not contacted the bearish yellow curve since that sell signal. It is the most anemic fund among those tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

The Indicant Weekly Report of August 24, 2008 describes the nature of the housing crisis at its very core of the problem. Currently, one in four U.S. homeowners endures mortgages far exceeding the market value of their homes. That contrasts significantly from that of the 1990’s.

Home valuations in the 1990’s enjoyed the opposite problem from that of today. Many refinanced their mortgages. Homeowners then propelled their windfall into the economy and the stock market. This propelled the stock market bull in the 1990’s at a rate far exceeding any prior historical performance level. That economic propellant no longer exists.

As stated in the August 24, 2008-Weekly Stock Market Report, the only time real economic wealth was created was when the house was built. After that, economic overhead members of American society sought additional financial gains well after the wealth was created. That leeching behavior was beyond economic normalcy. Most of it was orchestrated by politicians and their fraternity brothers in those “too big to fail” organizations.

With all of the economic meddling by non-economic wealth creators, there remain enough wealth creators generating real economic growth around the world. They exist in the only three wealth building sectors; manufacturing, extraction, and agriculture.

A view of mutual funds support the idea the bull market remains in tact. That is because of earnings growth in the many sectors they represent. That suggests significant bullish economic breadth. The only two weaklings are the phony ones; leeched home valuations and banks too big to fail.

If sell signals mount for mutual funds across various sectors, the bull market will be under a major threat. Configurations along the Mid-term cycle are nowhere near such behavior. Although the shorter-term cycles suggest duress, the Mid-term cycle is not nearly as nervous about technical or fundamental data.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 296 of the 340-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 50.7%. That annualizes to 45.7%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 296-stocks and funds for an average of 57.7-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 40-stocks and funds of 340-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 40.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 97.2-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Mar 26, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 226-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 38.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 31.5% (annualized at 42.5%). There were 89-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 37.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 81.3-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 22-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Mar 27, 2009. They were up by an average of 106.1% (annualized at 58.6%) since their respective buy signals an average of 94.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 322-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 35.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 42.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued dominating on this weekend in 2009, while petitioning a stock market bottom.

There were 158-stocks and funds with hold signals on Mar 21, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 159.2-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 175.3% (annualized at 57.3%). There were 158-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 21.6% from their respective sell signals an average of 23.0-weeks earlier. There were 47-buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 227-sell signals in the prior 19-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March 2008 that triggered some of the buy signals.

On Mar 23, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 266-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 126.8% (annualized at 63.2%) since their buy signals an average of 104.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 68-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 5.9% since their sell signals an average of 13.0-weeks earlier. There were eight buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2007.

Five years ago, on Mar 24, 2006, there were 288-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 115.4% (annualized at 62.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of 96.1-weeks earlier. There were 57-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 8.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 23.2-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

On Mar 25, 2005, there were 288-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 85.8%, annualizing at 59.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 75.3-weeks earlier. There were 84-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 28.6% since their sell signals an average of 52.3-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and three sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 249-stocks and funds with hold signals on Mar 26, 2004. They were up by an average of 85.8%, annualizing at 59.3%, since their buy signals 52.3-weeks earlier. The 43-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 24.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 39.3-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2004.

On Mar 28, 2003, there were 241-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 29.7% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 12.6-weeks earlier. That annualized at 75.6%. There were 36-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 29.7% since their sell signals an average of 27.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds in 2002-late 2004. There was one buy signal in addition to 119-buy signals in the prior week and 18-sell signals on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was five weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

In spite of the stock market’s short-term bearish concerns, the Mid-term Indicant continues identifying this as a mere bearish spurt.

The Mid-term continues with support for the bull, while the Short-term Indicant has identified some threatening elements. That suggests a mere bearish spurt may be unfolding, but confronting significant bullish resiliency.

The mid-term election year continues offering traction toward stock market bullishness. Much of this gain correlated with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011, albeit with potential near-term bearish expressions. The stock market’s bull, though, continues to impress with its resilience with each bearish incursion. That prognosis rests on political dynamics and historical standards. However, current configurations suggest that mere bearish spurts may manifest, but none support bearish dominance.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of stalemated politicians. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish in spite of potential for near-term bearish behavior. Mid-eastern unrest will resume its threat to the stock market bull, as a function of speculation of those empty souls who are attempting to gain control of petro flow into the capital markets. The problem with economic leeches and tyrants is their limited ability to see the big picture. In the end, their methods result in devolved processes.

The Japanese nuclear crisis adds a twist. The Short-term Indicant and daily stock market report have been closing tracking this new element.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest, but they should be tight. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 67.7% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 146.2% and the S&P500 is up 69.1% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 155.5% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011. Much of that depends, however, on unrest in the Middle East, related oil prices, political mumbo-jumbo by U.S. politicians, and the Japanese crisis.

The NASDAQ is down 45.7% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 14.0% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 4.2% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

If socialism continues to expand, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulations shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence. If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 21.9% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 7.1% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 4.2%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 1.8% and finishing up for that year by 1.4%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 8.5% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 4.9% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 1.7% at this time in 2007, finishing up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 11.7% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was down 3.0% on this weekend in 2009, but up significantly on this weekending date in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 5.7% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 13.7% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 4.1% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 16.1% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The S&P600-small cap index is down 2.0% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Interestingly, the NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago. It maintained that lofty achievement until last week. It is now up by 4.7% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400 is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that is also above pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 4.8% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 19.4% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

Most major indices last cyclical bottom occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 86.7% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 116.2% and the S&P500 is up 94.2% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 139.9% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-January 2010 bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Mid-term Indicant and Short-term Indicant are no longer suggesting impending bearishness. However, the Short-term Indicant is enduring some bearish spurt configurations.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the shorter near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull. Middle Eastern unrest, although, is a bit threatening to the stock market bull, depending though on the nature of that unrest. If oil prices skyrocket, the bear will be delighted. If democracy expands in that region, the bull will be delighted. Current parameters suggest stock market bearishness with maximal threats to the Saudi Kingdom, which is a stabilizing force in that region. The Japanese nuclear crisis remains elusive, even though related Japanese ETF’s received Short-term Indicant sell signal three weeks ago. Interestingly, all international related ETF’s received sell signals well ahead of the Japanese nuclear crisis.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

As promised by Bernanke, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. It endured significant bearishness six weeks ago and holding there after a bit of mild volatility. Bernanke, apparently, remains concerned with the economic outlook. All of this continues suggesting few demand problems for the T-Bill. The 2012 forecasted values do not yet indicate any significant increases. Keep in mind these forecasts are purely statistical, but qualitative inquiries are not suggesting different projections at this time.

However, the 6-month CD yield increased significantly 16-weeks ago, suggesting desired longer-term upward pressures by the banks. Even with all that, it remains depressed and has been flat since then. It fell 10-basis points five weeks ago. In essence, a level of stability has been found after wild variations in such a minor investment vehicle. Anyone buying a 6-month CD at 0.40% with 2+% CPI is heading to the poor house unless deflationary pressures manifest. At any rate, all CD’s remain as Yellow Bears.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status nine weeks ago and holding at that level, but remains with weakening trend and weakening mid-term cycle. There is no good reason to assume its long-term cyclical decline will reverse. However, the Bullish Red Curve shifted slightly to the north this past week. The Canadian dollar, like the Yen, had been stable for several weeks with a mild strengthening bias, although weakening a bit last week. They both accelerated their strength from mild status the past three weeks. Both the Yen and Canadian dollar’s cyclical direction and trend remain bullish. The CA$ tends to parallel oil prices. The forecast for the CA$ continues with projected strengthening. The Japanese Yen trend and mid-term cycle continues with strengthening trend, but has been trading in a shallow zone the past several weeks. The Yen continues to strengthen in spite of the earthquake and tsunami. G7 intervention is holding it up very well and it continues to strengthen.

Overall, the US dollar threatens to continue strengthening, but continues to weaken against the Japanese Yen (high productivity) and the Canadian dollar (resource rich).

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull to boot in spite of near-term cyclical bearishness. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to challenged, based on political dynamics. However, statistical bullishness remains in tact. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable, but enjoying steady increases the past several weeks. Middle Eastern unrest is adding a bit of pizzazz to those increases.

As stated by the Indicant for several months, it is priced where the Kingdom finds comfort at around $80/bbl, albeit departing on the high end of his desired tolerance levels the past several days. It has been nudging a bit higher than that for the past several weeks. It achieved Red Bull status a few weeks ago for the first time since 2007. The high-end forecast continues to project $120/bbl by 2012. The Saudi Kingdom will have to approve that, though. Middle Eastern unrest offer additional pizzazz to its recent bullishness. The King is probably a bit concerned about his job security and related pleasures, but there is little doubt the kingdom remains in charge of such matters. Speculators can shift the numbers around and if oil prices escape his desired targets, rest assured he will take countermeasures. OPEC has eagerly accelerated production in an attempt to maintain balance between supply and demand.

Commodity price’s quick-term cycle continues increasing, although bearish the past few weeks due to economic threats from the tsunami. Significant bullish behavior, however, continues along the mid-term to long-term cycle. They are not yet contributory to inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are enjoying Red Bull status. This remains economically bullish. Spot prices have expressed stability for the past few weeks.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, you will find the Reuter’s UK Commodities Index continues moving north since early 2009. It is a Red Bull. It continues to skyrocket, setting a new all time high during the week of November 8, 2010. It continued setting new highs until the past few weeks. Some of this is attributable to the crisis in Japan. Questionable economic projections and default threats from Portugal continue to pester. It remains economically bullish with inflationary considerations later. The CRB Bridge Futures continues its shift from waffling to more bullish aggression. It is also a solid Red Bull in spite of softening last week due to the Japanese crisis.

This paragraph remains the same. Commodities, overall, discontinued behavior consistent with uncertainty in favor of outright bullishness several weeks ago. Recent bearish behavior remains irrelevant. “Extract baby extract” seems to be an evolving theme as more people around the planet are moving toward capitalistic progressions in spite of American waffling.

Mortgage rates remain configured with countering the prevailing bearish trend. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. They are no longer Red Bulls and configuring with more bearishness.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable.

Overall, hard economic data continues with stability, although cyclically increasing, but softening the past several weeks. They could fall a bit in the coming weeks, but the cycle and trend are nowhere near a state of reversal. That is non-bearish, but lending support to longer-term inflationary potential. However, rising productivity from increased interests in capitalism around the world could significantly dampen inflationary threats. That, coupled with U.S. political dynamics of potential massive sovereign debt reductions, suggests dynamic bullishness.

At some point, the U.S. Congress will learn they have no influence on how China, India, and other countries manage their economies, which will eventually enjoy larger economies than the U.S. at some point. If those rapidly developing economies retain a penchant for capitalism, rest assured prices for all commodities will escalate. However, rising productivity associated with capitalists could dampen the effects on consumers. These potential economic shifts are unparalleled in the annals of history.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 23.0% since then, annualizing at 14.6%. This lazy fund has been bearish in seven of the past eleven weeks. It was also solidly bullish last week.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 33.1%, annualized at 63.1% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 52.2%, annualized at 99.4%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 36.5% since then, annualizing at 78.3%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 48.8% since that buy signal, annualizing at 92.9%.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 45.7% since then, annualizing at 86.2%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 72.7% since that buy signal, annualizing at 31.4%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It is up 2.8%, annualizing at 29.2%, since its most recent Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All the major indices are up by an average of 27.2% since their bull signals an average of 50.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 27.2%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $32,050,174. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,859,210 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $155,265. That beats buy and hold’s $128,690 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $226,127. That beats buy and hold’s $91,167 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 75.7% since then.

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled bull for QID on March 18, 2011. This remains configured as a function of a short-term stock market bearish spurt. The Mid-term Indicant is not supportive of an aggressive and sustainable bear at this time. Consequently, the Mid-term Indicant remains unable to signal buy for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short at this time.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal. It is no longer getting close to a buy signal, as it appears to have succumbed to the stock market bull for the time being. It may not receive a buy signal until 2013, which is the next post election year.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 322.2% (annualized at 16.6%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,012-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

All Force Vectors crossed into bullish domains and above Vector Pressure last Thursday. The major indices and most ETF’s are above NTI Blue. And NTI Blue is increasing. Normally, that would trigger bull signals and buy signals. However, there are a couple of concerns that justify delaying those signals.

The VIX Force Vector found a common bottom last Thursday. Probabilities exceeded 90% that it will increase on Friday. However, that did not occur. VIX Force fell to a two year minimum point. The probability of a bullish bounce has increased from 90% to 95%. That should occur early next week. Its Vector Pressure is in bullish domains, suggesting its impending rebound will not be insignificant. The VIX did not close below NTI Green. It did during intraday trading on Friday, but quickly rebounding back above the NTI Green curve. That is ominous on a near-term basis for the stock market and bullish for the VIX.

The second variable suggesting additional caution is volume. Volume was again mild on Thursday’s and Friday’s bullish behavior. That suggests minimal potential for bullish follow-on even though volume relationships have lost correlation in this bull cycle. However, it seems there are very few that are cross trading shares. When a few folks do it, suspicion is not out of line.

VIX passiveness in the next day or two will be inspirational to the bull and the technical bullishness will then obtain enough respect for action. Friday’s call option buys disappointed, but the April calls still have three weeks before expiration.

The third variable confronting the stock market bull is the NASDAQ100’s negative Vector Pressure. It is just barely inside bearish domains, but it is enough to remain cautious with respect to stock market bullishness on a short-term basis. It has been the strongest bull and now the with the weakest configurations. There is concern when the strongest becomes the weakest.

As stated the past few days, there is an absence of consistency, suggesting a lack of strong bullish or bearish commitment, but with an increasing edge favoring the bear on the short-term cycle.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

All Force Vectors are in bullish domains and higher than Pressure. Very few attributes remain in support of the Near-term bear signal. However, there are three of them that suggests delaying the bull signal until they no longer support the stock market bear.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for contrarian VIX, only. It is down 13.3% since its bull signal 2.6-weeks ago. It is down well over 50% the past seven days, but remains configured as a VIX bull, but barely so. As stated this past Thursday, it is nestled right on top of NTI Green, which is a solid bouncing point. If it does not bounce, the stock market bear will acquiesce to bullish ambition. It fell considerably below Green during intraday trading, but finished up from that intraday low.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 2.5% since their bear signals 1.7-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant continues signaling bull for ten major non-contrarian indices and contrarian VIX. They are up by an average of 15.6% since their bull signals an average of 25.1-weeks ago, annualizing at 32.4%.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for the weak Dow Utilities. It is up 0.9% since its bear signal on Mar 15, 2011.

Short-term Market Summary

Ten non-contrarian Red Bull configuration remains supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle.

The major indices remain with relatively high Pressure, but the Dow Utilities, NASDAQ, and NAS100 succumbed to short-term bearish Pressure this past Tuesday. They are attempting a comeback, but need to do a little more work to be convincing.

Force Vectors are moving in a bullish cycle. They are now bullishly mature. They should shift back to the south early next week. If they do not and start moving laterally, the Near-term Bear will expire and new Near-term Bull will begin a new cycle to the northeast.

Discerning is the VIX’s bearishly mature Force Vector and it setting at a common minimum point this past Thursday. Also, the VIX is nestled on NTI Green. On Friday, the VIX dropped below both of those points during intraday trading, but rebounded strongly before the stock market closed. Last Thursday, probabilities exceeded 90% of an impending bounce, which should induce stock market bearishness. As of Friday’s close, that probability of a bullish VIX recoil and stock market bearishness associated with that recoil now exceeds 95%. The VIX Force Vector dropped to its lowest point since May 2009.

Indicant Volume Indicators

Volume is finally increasing. Unfortunately, this change in cycle correlates with bearish aggression. That is, indeed, bearish.

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. Although the NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains, it is moving robustly. There is an increasing interest in the stock market. Some could argue that the earthquake and tsunami did not throw the stock market into a nasty bearish slide, which is bullish to many. However, the NYSE IVI recent robustness correlates very well with stock market bearishness. Statistical bias favors short-term bearishness as opposed to belief systems.

Mar 25, 2011-Fri-Same as yesterday; low volume on mild bullishness remains without strong bullish or bearish support.

Mar 24, 2011-Thu-Again mild volume and thus no change with respect to volume’s influence on stock market directional intensity.

Mar 23, 2011-Wed-Mild volume again does nothing to deter prevailing near-term stock market bearish expectations.

Mar 22, 2011-Tue-Volume was mild, relative to recent levels, on mild bearishness. However, both Indicant Volume Indicators continue moving robustly in a confused state with robustness supporting both bear and bull. The Quick-term cycle remains solidly bullish, while the near-term cycle remains pestered by the bear’s ambition.

Mar 21, 2011-Mon-Volume was mild along historical comparisons but up a bit on recent comparisons. That offers mild support for the bull, but recent relationships offer a bit more support for bearishness. Volume continues to not obviate directional stock market intensity.

Mar 18, 2011-Fri-Aggressive volume on passive bullishness is interesting. The stock market enjoyed aggressive bullishness, but closed downward on this day. There is no meaningful probabilistic relations with this configuration. It does nothing to upset the invigorated bear, but also does nothing toward reclassification from a mere bearish spurt.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for nine ETF’s, consisting of a combination of contrarians and non-contrarians. They are up by an average of 14.7% since their buy signals an average of 16.5-weeks ago. This annualizes at 46.4%.

The NTI is avoiding 23-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 2.1% since their sell signals an average of 2.5-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 31-ETF’s. They are up 19.7% since their buy signals an average of 32.1-weeks ago. This annualizes at 32.0%. The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for both contrarian and non-contrarian ETF’s. That combination of hold signals will not last too long. That conflict should find relief within days from now.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding one ETF. It is ETF-EWJ#06-Japan. It is up 2.8% since the QTI signaled sell on Mar 14, 2011, although down 6.0% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on March 10, 2011.

Technically, the Near-term Indicant is not supporting a bullish bounce for EWJ at this time. Its Force Vector expended tremendous energy on its recent bullish cycle. EWJ will most likely endure solid bearishness in the next few days. It was mildly bearish last Wed and Thu, but solidly bearish on Fri.

Short-term Summary: Force Vectors shifted in favor of bullish support last Thu. There are just few more attributes to offer bullish support.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 45.7%, annualizing at 86.2% since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. Force climbed into bullish domains, supporting bullish position.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 72.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 31.4%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $125.64 and still rising. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $139.26.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 2.8% since then, annualizing at 29.2%.

Near-term attributes for signaling next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal from both the Quick-term Indicant and Short-term Indicant on Mar 10, 2011 after falling over 8.0% from its Quick-term sell signal on Oct 14, 2010 and basically flat since the Near-term sell signal on Nov 15, 2010. It is no longer a Yellow Bear and too many attributes are shifting in favor of bullish behavior. It is up 0.1% since buy signals on Mar 10, 2011, annualizing at 2.5%. Its bullish configuration and contrarian nature suggests the stock market bear is not through with its shenanigans. Do not be surprised at TLT bouncing bullishly early next week.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 10, 2011 for ETF#31-QID. It was down over 30.0% since its October 14, 2010 sell signal. The overall stock market is somewhat supportive of QID’s bullish desires. It is down 3.3% since the Mar 10, 2011 buy signal.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Mar 10, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. It was down over 55.5% since its prior Near-term Indicant sell signal on Sep 2, 2010. Its Pressure is now positioned to offer a bullish expression on a short-term horizon. It is down 10.5% since the Mar 10 buy signal. Its Force Vector fell into bearish domains this past Wednesday, threatening the hold signal. The Force Vector is bearishly mature, suggesting a bullish bounce is imminent and potentially very powerful.

Major ETF Events

Mar 25, 2011-Fri-VIX Force is positioned at a two-year minimum. It should rise early next week. With that, VIX behavior should be bullish.

Mar 24, 2011-Thu-All contrarian Force Vectors maneuvered in favor of bullish support. The Force cycle is bullishly mature. That coupled with a few additional attributes delays buy signals.

Mar 23, 2011-Wed-Several Force Vectors crossed into bullish domains. However, several continue being shy about that and thus the stock market bear remains with potential energy to wreak a bit more havoc.

Mar 22, 2011-Tue-There were none, but worthy to note Force Vectors, although rising, did not cross into bull domains. That discourages potential near-term bullish cycle.

Mar 21, 2011-Mon-The stock market enjoyed solid bullish behavior. However, Force Vectors remain in bearish domains. Although bearish aggression is configured as a bearish spurt, current configurations do not support resumption of a Near-term bullish cycle.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Mar 25, 2011. Force Vectors now support bull signal. If bearish behavior does not resume on Monday, then buy/bull signals will ensue. The VIX suggests stock market bearishness early next week on the short-term cycle.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed bullish convergence last week. That follows two consecutive weeks of combined bearish convergence/divergence. Four consecutive weeks is indeed bearish. So, the string is broken. Therefore, there is no imminent threat to the Mid-term Indicant’s bull signal.

Economic fundamentals continue improving, but international political conflicts are pestering. The Japanese crisis is discerning, but not completely configurable.

The overall stock market has enjoyed bullish convergence in five of the past eight weeks. The stock market did not deliver the desired four consecutive weeks in this recent cycle. In spite of less than desired bullish attributes, there is little reason to fear a dynamic and aggressive bear at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The presidential pre-election year stock market bull remains in tact and in full conformance to historical standards. There is no technical support for stock market bearish behavior other than a few pestering short-term attributes supporting the stock market bear.

The Near-term Indicant continues signaling bear, but the overall short-term model remains with bearish spurt configurations as opposed to a dominant long-lasting bear. Do not be surprised at Near-term bearishness early next week.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions have yet to produce significant increases in volume. Volume increases were detected two weeks ago that correlated with bearish behavior. Even with those increases, though, that volume behavior was not dynamic.

Volume should increase in coming weeks and months, offering additional obviations of directional intensity. The absence of that expectation is somewhat discerning, as the bull will require significant increases in volume to sustain itself. At least that is the norm. Regardless, though, of these extraneous attributes, one cannot argue with a low volume bull.

As stated the past 77-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle. International tensions, however, are adding a mild threat to bullish commentary.

Political phenomena in the U.S., coupled with low interest rates, continue in support of the bull. The world’s third largest economy in Japan is adding a new twist.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation is an accurate descriptor of the current economy. That, coupled with unrest in the Middle East and the Japanese nuclear crisis, could inspire the bear to gain traction. Keep in mind, though, inflation is inevitable in the future unless Congress is successful in reducing 2.5-trillion dollars from the national debt. Recent political rhetoric is increasingly passive toward that amount. Executed passivity toward debt reductions will continue to feed inflationary potential. That is the hidden tax, imposed by those, who you elected as your representatives to the U.S. Congress and the executive branches of government.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

03/27/2011

Mar 20, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 03, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Bull or Bear and Orangutan Punditry

There are only two kinds of people; you and third person(s). The third person could be anyone or a portion of the six to seven billion people inhabiting the earth. Some of those six billion are constantly conveying information to you, just as yours truly, as you read this. Of that small subset of communicative people, most are attempting to get something from you. None, other than loving family members, attempts to give you something.

Marketers often use the word, free, in their promotions. It is one of the words that work for advertising purposes. That is amazing because universal law holds that nothing is free. Every asset creation is accompanied by a corresponding liability; not just in accounting but in physical law. In spite of that, marketers continue to use that word, free. If it did not work, they would not use it. So, whenever you see the word, free, in promotions, recognize it is not so. We at the Indicant even do it because the marketing folks tell us to from time to time. We do not like doing it because it takes time and money and rest assured that cost is recovered in desired margins. So, it is not really free.

Much of the news you read is not really news. It is press releases and other promotional gimmicks. Sometimes, there is white space capacity that needs filling. It is always filled, regardless of credibility, integrity, or source identification. The blogger industry evolved due to massive nonsensicality in conventional news media. The problem with bloggers is their DNA is very similar to those of conventional media. The motivation is the same; that is, get something although a few do it for higher causes than chasing money.

Nearly every time the market moves over 2% or so in a day, the advertisers and marketers sense opportunity. Orangutan punditry manifests. This manifestation appears to have one purpose but the opposite is the real purpose. They are not aiming to help you. Their aim is to help themselves.

Recent commentary from stock market pundits advise us the bull market is up over 80% since its inception on March 9, 2009. This orangutan punditry attempts to makes many among the masses feel bad for not enjoying those gains. Stimulating bad feelings includes the fear element. Fear is also a good seller although not quite a good as the “free” element, but a close second. Major news networks search for fear. If they cannot find it, they will create it. Fear sells. That is part of the “taking” process by the third person. In this case, orangutan punditry does in fact manifest.

Every now and then orangutan punditry advises the stock market is actually a bear market. The S&P500 is down 16.3% since its weekly closing peak on March 23, 2000. That adds a bit of meritocracy to bearish orangutan punditry. It also invokes fear. Others add delight to their imposing fear by factually stating the NASDAQ is down 47.6% since its weekly closing peak on March 9, 2000.

Some claim we have been in a bear market since Y2K, while others claim we have been enjoying a bull market since October 2002. Some even do both; pointing to bear and bull. They are serving two purposes; filling white space and attempting to gain something.

Both points are inarguable when conveying a moment of origin to the current moment. It is similar to global warming arguments. The game played is determining where to plot the first data point. Hannibal crossed the Swiss Alp on his march to military victories in Italy against the Roman Empire about two thousand years ago. There was no snow on the Alps at that time. If we decide to plot the first data point at the time of Hannibal, then solid arguments favoring global cooling would be difficult to defeat since the Alps are now covered with plenty of snow. If one wants to convey a time series argument of any kind, all one has to do is select a convenient data point from the past and pontificate from that point forward.

Marketers and advertisers, for the most part, are among the liberal artsy types. Although not very scientific or deep thinking, they do understand two dimensional, if-then statements. They will pick a “convenient originating data point” and then, with their mastery of language, fill available white spaces. It is easy to do and it must work because they keep on doing it in spite of massive and continuous nonsensicality.

The bear pontificators ask, “Why would anyone want to invest in the stock market after being flat to bearish for the past eleven years?” CD’s would do better. Bankers tend to convey that message to get your money, pay you less than 1% for that money, and loan it out to others at 20% plus for a nice 19% plus profit on short-term money flows. That element of fear must work because there remains an investment security called CD’s and people, in fact, buy them.

The bankers will not tell you that earning less than 1% with a CPI of 4% means you are losing 3%. Wall Street, on the other hand, will let you know that because it invokes a fear element favoring their message to gain something. Wall Street will advise you the stock market goes up more than it goes down. That is a valid claim when looking a history. However, it is not possible to make that claim for the future even though many do project the future in spite of its impossibility.

Bankers, Wall Street, and others who promote their businesses constantly promote bull and bear themes. Some will compare Japan’s nuclear crisis to the U.S. financial crisis. They are merely attempting to gain attention. Their purpose; get something.

Looking at the NYSE, the Near-term Indicant, based on cycle, is signaling bear. The near-term cycle points to price less than NTI Green, Force Vectors in bearish domains, and declining Vector Pressure. The NYSE is down 1.0% since that bear signal on March 10, 2011. The Quick-term Indicant continues signaling bull since the NYSE remains well above the QTI bearish yellow curve and with positive Vector Pressure. The NYSE is up 13.3% since the QTI signaled bull on September 14, 2011. Those terms are mean nothing to the public, but mean quite a bit to you. There is no marketing hype here. This message is directed only to you; not the conventional press.

Now let’s play the game with the NYSE. Click this sentence to view the Indicant Volume Indicator Chart for the NYSE. You can see it has not yet returned to its pre-crash peak. Therefore, one could successfully argue the NYSE is enduring a bear market. If one were to choose its March 2009 low point as the origination of message or argument, one could easily convey bull market status. Is that helpful to you? We do not think so. Nevertheless, many fill white space on that subject.

Scrolling down on the same page, you will notice the NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator Chart. It is a bit more interesting. You will notice the NASDAQ nudged up to its pre crash high. However, it never passed it, while its cousin, the NASDAQ100, did in fact pass its pre-crash high. The NASDAQ100 passage above pre-crash highs is discussed later in this report. Passing a pre-crash high is sometimes newsworthy to many, but is it helpful? The DJIA passed its pre-crash 2000 high a few years ago and held there for several months. The S&P500 did the same, but only held for a few weeks. The NASDAQ remains nearly 50% below its 2000 pre-crash highs.

As you can see, the NASDAQ is also enduring a Near-term Indicant bear signal for reasons similar to the NYSE, while enjoying a Quick-term bull signal. It is down 2.1% since the Near-term bear signal on March 10, 2011, while is it up 14.9% since the Quick-term bull signal last September.

So, is the stock market a bull or bear? Rest assured many will attempt to answer that question based on the Japanese crisis. Hopefully, you will find literary entertainment, which is all that can be offered. We will signal bear when configurations confirm bear, based on cyclical configurations.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 296 of the 340-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 45.4%. That annualizes to 41.7%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 296-stocks and funds for an average of 56.7-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 40-stocks and funds of 340-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 41.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 96.2-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Mar 19, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 227-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 37.0-weeks. They were up by an average of 30.8% (annualized at 43.2%). There were 89-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 34.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 80.3-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 22-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Mar 20, 2009. They were up by an average of 103.9% (annualized at 57.9%) since their respective buy signals an average of 93.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 322-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 38.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 41.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued dominating on this weekend in 2009, while petitioning a stock market bottom.

There were 155-stocks and funds with hold signals on Mar 14, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 159.8-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 182.8% (annualized at 59.5%). There were 186-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 17.2% from their respective sell signals an average of 18.4-weeks earlier. There were four buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 223-sell signals in the prior 18-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008.

On Mar 16, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 266-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 118.9% (annualized at 59.9%) since their buy signals an average of 103.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 44-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 10.4% since their sell signals an average of 17.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and 35-sell signals on this weekend in 2007.

Five years ago, on Mar 17, 2006, there were 286-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 117.6% (annualized at 63.6%) since their respective buy signals an average of 96.1-weeks earlier. There were 53-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 8.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 23.2-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and four sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

On Mar 18, 2005, there were 235-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 88.6%, annualizing at 62.0%, since their respective buy signals an average of 74.4-weeks earlier. There were 77-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 28.7% since their sell signals an average of 52.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and eight sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 249-stocks and funds with hold signals on Mar 19, 2004. They were up by an average of 71.1%, annualizing at 77.4%, since their buy signals 47.8-weeks earlier. The 16-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 25.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 38.7-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and 16-sell signals on this weekend in 2004.

On Mar 21, 2003, there were 141-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 29.8% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 20.7-weeks earlier. That annualized at 74.8%. There were 141-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 28.3% since their sell signals an average of 26.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds in 2002-late 2004. There were 119-buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was four weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

In spite of the stock market’s short-term bearish behavior, the Mid-term Indicant continues identifying this as a mere bearish spurt.

The Mid-term continues with support for the bull, while the Short-term Indicant has identified some threatening elements. That suggests a mere bearish spurt may be unfolding.

The Japanese nuclear crisis adds a twist. The Short-term Indicant and daily stock market report have been closing tracking this new element.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 62.8% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 137.3% and the S&P500 is up 64.7% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 147.2% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011. Much of that depends, however, on unrest in the Middle East, related oil prices, political mumbo-jumbo by U.S. politicians, and the Japanese crisis.

The NASDAQ is down 47.6% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 16.3% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 1.2% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 23.5% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 3.8% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 4.9%. (Note that it was up a whopping 8% on this weekending date in 2003). It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 2.0% and finishing up for that year by 1.4%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 7.7% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 4.6% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was down by 1.8% at this time in 2007, finishing up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 14.5% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was down 5.4% on this weekend in 2009, but up significantly on this weekending date in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 5.4% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 16.3% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 7.5% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 18.3% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The S&P600-small cap index is down 5.2% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Interestingly, the NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago. It maintained that lofty achievement until last week. It is now down by 0.8% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400 is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that is also above pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 1.8% since its prior peak on Jul 13/2007. The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 21.5% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow is up 81.1% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 108.4% and the S&P500 is up 89.1% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 132.2% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-January 2010 bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Mid-term Indicant and Short-term Indicant are no longer suggesting impending bearishness. However, the Short-term Indicant is enduring some bearish spurt configurations.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the shorter near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull. Middle Eastern unrest, although, is a bit threatening to the stock market bull, depending though on the nature of that unrest. If oil prices skyrocket, the bear will be delighted. If democracy expands in that region, the bull will be delighted. Current parameters suggest stock market bearishness with maximal threats to the Saudi Kingdom, which is a stabilizing force in that region. The Japanese nuclear crisis remains elusive, even though related Japanese ETF’s received Short-term Indicant sell signal two weeks ago. Interestingly, all international related ETF’s received sell signals well ahead of the Japanese nuclear crisis.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. It endured significant bearishness five weeks ago, held flat the past three weeks, and dropped significantly the past two weeks. Bernanke, apparently, remains concerned with the economic outlook. All of this continues suggesting few demand problems. The 2012 forecasted values do not yet indicate any significant increases. Keep in mind these forecasts are purely statistical, but qualitative inquiries are not suggesting different projections at this time.

However, the 6-month CD yield increased significantly 15-weeks ago, suggesting desired longer-term upward pressures by the banks. Even with all that, it remains depressed and has been flat since then. It fell 10-basis points four weeks ago. In essence, a level of stability has been found after wild variations in such a minor investment vehicle. Anyone buying a 6-month CD at 0.40% with 2+% CPI is heading to the poor house unless deflationary pressures manifest. At any rate, all CD’s remain as Yellow Bears. China is enduring CPI’s ranging above 4.0% and increasing interest rates because of that. That could change, though, as the world economy is slowing.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status eight weeks ago and holding at that level, but remains with weakening trend and weakening mid-term cycle. There is no good reason to assume its long-term cyclical decline will reverse. The Canadian dollar, like the Yen, had been stable for several weeks with a mild strengthening bias, although weakening a bit last week. They both accelerated their strength from mild status the past two weeks. Both the Yen and Canadian dollar’s cyclical direction and trend remain bullish. The CA$ tends to parallel oil prices. The forecast for the CA$ continues with projected strengthening. The Japanese Yen trend and mid-term cycle continues with strengthening trend, but has been trading in a shallow zone the past several weeks. The Yen did not react too bearishly with its earthquake and tsunami. G7 intervention is holding it up very well and in fact strengthened a bit last week.

Overall, the US dollar threatens to continue strengthening, but continues to weaken against the Japanese Yen (high productivity) and the Canadian dollar (resource rich).

The Saudi Kingdom is under attack. It appears Middle Easterners are attempting to dishevel their kingdoms and dictators. The stock market does not mind the collapse of dictatorships, but it will react bearishly to the fall of Saudi Kingdom if that, in fact, occurs. The kingdom has been a stabilizing force to oil prices since WWII.

Commodity price’s quick-term cycle continues increasing, although bearish the past few days due to souring economic projections around the world. Significant bullish behavior continues, however, continues along the mid-term to long-term cycle. They are not yet contributory to inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are enjoying Red Bull status. This remains economically bullish. Spot prices have expressed stability for the past few weeks.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, you will find the Reuter’s UK Commodities Index continues moving north since early 2009. It is a Red Bull. It continues to skyrocket, setting a new all time high during the week of November 8, 2010. It continued setting new highs until the past few days. Some of this is attributable to the crisis in Japan. Questionable economic projections and default threats from Spain continue to pester. It remains economically bullish with inflationary considerations later. The CRB Bridge Futures continues its shift from waffling to more bullish aggression. It is also a solid Red Bull in spite of softening last week due to the Japanese crisis.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable.

Overall, hard economic data continues with stability, albeit with increasing commodity prices. They could fall a bit in the coming weeks, but the cycle and trend are nowhere near a state of reversal. That is non-bearish, but lending support to longer-term inflationary potential. However, rising productivity from increased interests in capitalism around the world could significantly dampen inflationary threats. That, coupled with U.S. political dynamics of potential massive sovereign debt reductions, suggests dynamic bullishness.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 6.6%, annualizing at 13.1% since then. It was solidly bearish the past two weeks. As stated the past six weeks, gold could be in trouble, while displaying periodic resistance to that prognosis.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 16.7% since then, annualizing at 10.7%. This lazy fund has been bearish in seven of the past ten weeks. It was also solidly bearish the past two weeks.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 29.3%, annualized at 58.0% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 46.8%, annualized at 92.5%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 39.2% since then, annualizing at 76.6%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 71.6% since that buy signal, annualizing at 31.2%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It is up 2.2%, annualizing at 28.1%, since its most recent Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All the major indices are up by an average of 23.4% since their bull signals an average of 49.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 24.6%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $31,100,095. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,804,126 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $151,177. That beats buy and hold’s $125,302 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $226,127. That beats buy and hold’s $91,167 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 73.4% since then.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 309.7% (annualized at 15.9%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,011-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Last Thursday’s bullish aggression was accompanied with passive volume, relative to recent bearish volume. Friday’s mild bullish behavior was accompanied with increased volume with most of that increase paralleling late day bearish behavior. In other words, volume remains supportive of the bear. Most prices remain below NTI Green, which is bearish on the near-term cycle. None of the non-contrarian ETF’s are above the NTI bearish green curve.

The Quick-term cycle is with minimal Red Bull support. The region between QTI Red and QTI Yellow generally invites turbulence. Until Red Bulls manifest again, do not be surprised at price volatility.

Such bearish commentary does not mean the stock market bear is about to unleash a solid and long lasting attack on the bull. However, this bearish spurt is gaining momentum in spite of bullish behavior this past Thu and Fri.

Interestingly, nature’s force is influential to the underlying bearish spurt, as opposed to economic reason. Even more interestingly, bearish configurations first appeared before Japan’s earthquake and tsunami. Most of the internationally related ETF sell signals occurred weeks before Japan’s earthquake and tsunami struck.

Quick-term cycle sell signals will not occur until price fall below the QTI bearish yellow curve. ETF#06-EWJ-Japan endured that this past Tuesday.

Major indices and most non-contrarian ETF’s remain with relatively high Vector Pressure, including those with Near-term bear/avoid signals. Therefore, the bull still has some weapons to unleash toward the bear. However, contrarian ETF’s Force Vectors continue rising in bullish domains. Non contrarians were falling in bearish domains, but most are reversing as the cycle is mature.

There is an absence of consistency, suggesting a lack of strong bullish or bearish commitment, but with an increasing edge favoring the bear on the short-term cycle.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The major indices continue highlighting bearish unanimity. That is bearish, as the stronger near-term bulls expired this past Wednesday. Keep in mind, configurations suggest this is a mere bearish spurt, but also keep in mind all major bear markets originate as a bearish spurt. As long as the major indices remain above QTI Bearish Yellow, it is a spurt and not a major bear market.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for contrarian VIX, only. It is up 18.3% since its bull signal on 1.6-weeks ago, annualizing at 598.8%. It is down nearly 20% the past two days, but remains configured as a VIX bull.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. They are down by an average of 0.5% since their bear signals 0.8-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant continues signaling bull for ten major non-contrarian indices and contrarian VIX. They are up by an average of 15.2% since their bull signals an average of 24.1-weeks ago, annualizing at 32.9%.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for the weak Dow Utilities. It is down 1.0% since its bear signal on Mar 15, 2011.

Short-term Market Summary

Only two non-contrarian Red Bull configuration remains supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. They are the more dynamic S&P400 and S&P600 Indices.

The major indices remain with relatively high Pressure, including those with Near-term Bear signals. In other words, the bull remains armed and capable of counter attacking the bear on the near-term cycle. Technically, this remains a bearish spurt in spite of Japan’s problems.

Force Vectors are bearishly mature. The nature of their inevitable rise and magnitude will add additional analyses to measure the nature of this bearish spurt and determine if it has designs to expanding from a bearish spurt to an outright bear. Of course, it is possible for the Force Vectors to trigger a new Near-term bullish cycle, but to do that, they must cross into bullish domains. Right now, they remain in bearish domains.

Indicant Volume Indicators

Volume is finally increasing. Unfortunately, this change in cycle correlates with bearish aggression. That is, indeed, bearish.

Mar 17, 2011-Thu-Reduced volume on bullish aggression is not inspirational to the bull.

Mar 16, 2011-Wed-Volume was again more aggressive on bearish aggression, fostering an increase in bearish interest.

Mar 15, 2011-Tue-Volume was more aggressive today on bearish aggression. This lends support for continuation of bearish bias, but it remains as a bearish spurt for the time being.

Mar 14, 2011-Mon-Volume was up today, but less than what occurred last Thursday on more aggressive bearishness. Bias a bit tricky right now as the underlying bearish spurt gains traction.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for nine ETF’s, consisting of a combination of contrarians and non-contrarians. They are up by an average of 14.9% since their buy signals an average of 15.5-weeks ago. This annualizes at 49.9%.

The NTI is avoiding 23-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 0.6% since their sell signals an average of 1.5-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 31-ETF’s. They are up 17.4% since their buy signals an average of 31.1-weeks ago. This annualizes at 29.2%. The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for both contrarian and non-contrarian ETF’s. That combination of hold signals will not last too long.

Current near-term bias favors more sell signals for non-contrarians. That occurred last Tue and Wed. More should be expected, but attributes must justify, as opposed to forecasting.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding one ETF. It is ETF-EWJ#06-Japan. It is up 3.2% since the QTI signaled sell on Mar 14, 2011. It enjoyed a solid bullish bounces last Thu/Fri. That is a typical response to falling below QTI bearish yellow curve. Sometimes a thorough bullish cycle manifests with that response and at other times it descends below yellow and stays there with declining values for long periods. Current configurations support the latter at this time. Theses configurations are not static, though. The Japanese remain very industrious and their economy should not be underestimated.

Short-term Summary: Non-contrarian Red Bulls (lost 13-this past Wed) remain as a minority even though there was a gain of eight today. All of the all contrarian ETF’s are Red Bulls. Last Wed/Thu suggested the absence of non-contrarian Red Bulls were no longer mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. However, bullish behavior the past two days offer some protection against dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. Last Wed/Thu included no non-contrarian NTI Blue Bulls offering little inspiration for a new Near-term bullish cycle. However, bullish behavior the past two days has produced five non-contrarian NTI Blue Bulls. The near-term cycle is also adding protection against any terrorizing bear market.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 39.2%, annualizing at 76.6%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains bullish, but no longer solid, as Force remains in bearish domains. However, Pressure is too high to allow massive bearish influences in this sector. There should be a rebound, offering greater obviations of directional intensity. Its NTI Bullish Blue Curve collapsed this past Thursday, but not enough other attributes support bearish behavior.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 71.6% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 31.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $125.09 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 2.2% since then, annualizing at 28.1%. It was again not contrarian. That has occurred for four consecutive days, paralleling stock market behavior but paling in magnitude.

Near-term attributes for signaling next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure. It is below NTI Blue, but Pressure remains positive.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

As stated since late 2008, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will advise of that potential when it occurs. Keep in mind, currencies can be manipulated for a period. However, currencies decoupled from production and related productivity will endure inflation regardless of political witch doctoring. Keep in mind, GLD tracks the price of gold in U.S. dollars. A strengthening dollar will have a depressing effect on the price of gold. Please read on, as this paragraph is now being challenged.

A sound fundamental persists in continued threats to the gold bull. In reference to the Indicant Weekly Report of January 16, 2011, political influences may be gold’s worst enemy, as it is approaching its prior peak from 1492. If political forces result in shifting sovereign debt loads to the south, currencies will strengthen, dampening the “emotional” value of gold. The Tea Party movement may invoke this shift, as that political pressure strongly supports dynamic cuts in Federal spending. Perceptions hold that will dampen inflationary threats and thus depress the price of Gold in U.S. dollars.

The above fundamental commentaries conflict. However, the Tea Party movement must manifest its desires into laws and real budgets before the bearish fundamental can occur. If Federal spending continues, gold will skyrocket in U.S. dollars.

Those $3,000,000 retirement accounts people worked hard to save can become worthless, even if you own Boardwalk and Park Place, where the weekly rent will be a hundred grand or two. Politicians can destroy that without even taxing it. Their inflationary policies will do the trick.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal from both the Quick-term Indicant and Short-term Indicant on Mar 10, 2011 after falling over 8.0% from its Quick-term sell signal on Oct 14, 2010 and basically flat since the Near-term sell signal on Nov 15, 2010. It is no longer a Yellow Bear and too many attributes are shifting in favor of bullish behavior. It is up 1.5% since buy signals on Mar 10, 2011, annualizing at 67.7%.

Interestingly, TLT was also not contrarian today with mild bullishness paralleling mild stock market bullishness.

Major ETF Events

Mar 18, 2011-Fri-A mild bullish bounce closed after being aggressively bullish earlier in the sessions. Most non-contrarians were also mildly bullish, suggesting stock market confusion. It seldom remains confused too long, though.

Mar 17, 2011-ThuBullish expression is configured as a reverberation, but within a bearish spurt, as opposed to a sustainable bear.

Mar 16, 2011-All non-contrarian Quick-term Red Bulls expired.

Mar 15, 2011-All non-contrarian Near-term Blue Bulls expired.

Mar 14, 2011-ETF#06-Japan fell below QTI Bearish Yellow and received a Quick-term bear signal. It received a Near-term sell signal on Mar 10, 2011. It is down 8.6% since that Near-term sell signal with its collapse today. The Quick-term Indicant had to signal sell even though its Force Vector is bearishly mature, which is invitational to a bullish response.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Mar 18, 2011. Several prices fell below NTI Green the past several days with declining and weakening Force. Although Vector Pressure still supports the bull, risks of holding remain too high for those receiving sell signals. For those of you who bought GLD on the Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market endured bearish divergence last week. Most sectors were bearish. The energy sector was bullish. That is two consecutive weeks of combined bearish convergence/divergence. Four consecutive weeks is indeed bearish, but two more weeks remain open to this attribute.

Economic fundamentals continue improving, but international political conflicts are pestering. The Japanese crisis is discerning, but not completely configurable.

The overall stock market has enjoyed bullish convergence in four of the past seven weeks. The stock market did not deliver the desired four consecutive weeks in this recent cycle. In spite of less than desired bullish attributes, there is little reason to fear a dynamic and aggressive bear at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The Near-term Indicant continues signaling bear, but the overall short-term model remains with bearish spurt configurations as opposed to a dominant long-lasting bear.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions have yet to produce significant increases in volume. Volume increases were detected last week that correlated with bearish behavior. Even with those increases, though, that volume behavior was not dynamic.

As stated the past 76-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle. International tensions, however, are adding a mild threat to bullish commentary.

Political phenomena in the U.S., coupled with low interest rates, continue in support of the bull. The world’s third largest economy in Japan is adding a new twist.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

03/20/2011

Mar 13, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 03, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Mid-term and Short-term Cycles

The Mid-term Indicant cycle moves slower than the Short-term Indicant cycle. The Mid-term Indicant uses weekly data, while the Short-term uses daily data. Weekly data, when considering a longer-term view of the stock market, dampens daily stock market nervousness. In essence, the Mid-term Indicant minimizes the effects of those nervous short-term traders who “trade on the news.”

Consequently, the Mid-term Indicant is slower in buying and selling, while it tends to signal hold and avoid for much longer periods than the Short-term Indicant. Over the years of tracking stocks and funds, we have learned that open ended mutual funds offer added stability to stock market tracking with the Mid-term Indicant model. Index funds provide the greatest stability, while actively managed funds offer a pleasurable degree of stability via the Mid-term Indicant.

The Mid-term Indicant’s purpose is to avoid significant bear cycles. For example, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 99 of the 100-mutual funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on January 5, 2007. By January 4, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant hold signals had dropped to 60. Interestingly, there were 18-mutual fund sell signals on that date in 2008, well ahead of the stock market bear. By July 4, 2008, there were only 28-mutual funds with a Mid-term Indicant hold signal. A bullish spurt triggered a few buy signals during late summer and early fall of 2008. By October 3, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only four mutual funds. The Dow plummeted over 2,000 points between October 3, 2008 and October 27, 2008. By October 10, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding only one mutual fund and it was contrarian.

The 2007/2009 bear cycle ended in March 2009, but the Mid-term Indicant did not start signaling buy until August 7, 2009. However, the Short-term Indicant started buying ETF’s in March/April 2009. The Short-term Indicant, which is more sensitive to stock market nervousness, endured sell signals in July 2009, while the Mid-term Indicant remained suspicious of the stock market’s bullish behavior at that time. However, the Mid-term Indicant acquiesced to bullish sentiment in August 2009 and started signaling buy for mutual funds and stocks, accordingly. By January 29, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 76-mutual funds after avoiding nearly all of them between September 2008 and July 2009.

After the 2010 state of the union speech, the stock market reacted bearishly and sort of meandered through the first half of 2010. Commentary in that state of the union speech was similar of that from the pulpits of a 1950’s politburo. Fundamentally, the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for several months following that speech, most of which was justified with technical data. By September 2010, the Mid-term Indicant had reduced hold signals to 41-mutual funds. About that time, though, the capital markets were recognizing a very high probability of the Tea Party’s movement against politburo politics. The Mid-term Indicant, not arguing with the stock market’s anticipatory skill, signaled buy for several more mutual funds. By November 12, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 96 of the 100-mutual funds it tracks.

You can see how the Mid-term Indicant has signaled hold and avoid with a simple chart since 1998 by clicking this sentence.

Many of you recall, during 2009 and 2010 there were several more buy/sell signals by the Short-term Indicant. Also, the Short-term Indicant triggered a regrettable October 2008 buy signal due to influences by the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The Near-term Indicant has since replaced that variable, which is esoteric to avoid the pitfalls of the phenomenon of commonality. However, the Mid-term Indicant continued avoidance in October 2008.

To understand the relationships between the Mid-term Indicant and Short-term Indicant, look at MTI-MF#01-DIA and MTI-MF#02-USSPX. You will a small drop in the prices of those two funds this past week. You should also notice those two funds are nowhere near receiving a sell signal from the Mid-term Indicant. The short-term pestering by the bear is barely visible on the Mid-term Indicant charts, while the Short-term model suggests a significant threat to the stock market bull. Looking back in time at those two funds, you can see prices commonly fall to the Green curve and then bounce to the north. That is a classical bearish spurt and the Mid-term Indicant typically ignores those spurts depending on its position relative to the buy price.

Click this sentence to view comparable Short-term models. ETF#07-DIA is the same fund as MTI-MF#01. Although the Short-term Indicant has not yet signaled sell for ETF#07-DIA, it is nearing that potential. You will notice its Force Vector clinging barely into bullish domains. That is delaying short-term sell signals. But, you can also detect the daily nervousness inherent in the short-term model.

Click this sentence ETF#02-SPY, which tracks the same index as MTI-MF#02-USSPX. Again, the small dip on the Mid-term chart takes on a benign appearance. Technically, the Mid-term Indicant will not consider selling MTI-MF#02 until its price interacts with Green and depending on other attributes. However, the Near-term Indicant signaled sell this past week for ETF#02-SPY. You will notice SPY’s Force deeper inside bearish domains with its price below Green.

Interestingly, both the MTI Green Curves and STI Green Curves offer bullish response points to incursions by the bear. This statistical anomaly is enjoyed in spite to two different data sets. However, from time to time, those Green curves do not protect bullish cycles. That can trigger sell signals, depending on other variables.

There is an above average probability the Short-term Indicant avoid-signal for SPY and other ETF’s will be short-lived. That is because the Short-term Vector Pressure remains high, which is a bullish attribute. The problem is that is probabilistic. Determinism or obviation of directional intensity is a bit more difficult without volume support. That has plagued this bull since its inception in March 2009.

Fundamentally, political noise about massive deficit reductions is shifting toward minor deficit reductions. That, coupled with an attack on the Saudi Kingdom, the only related source of Middle Eastern stability, threatens Short-term stock market bullish behavior. The bear finds those two “political” elements invigorating. However, the Mid-term Indicant will allow those two elements and other day-to-day nervousness to proceed without triggering buy/sell decisions until prices fall below MTI Yellow and in some cases below their Green curves with obviating weak force and pressure.

Although rarely influencing the Short-term Indicant with its many variables, some of which conflict from time to time, one very interesting observation is worth mentioning here. Click this sentence to view the NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator. You may have to scroll down past the mundane NYSE chart.

You should notice a line extending rightward from the NASDAQ’s 2007 peak to current time. You will notice the so-called Tea Party bullish cycle originating in August 2010 did not push the NASDAQ above the Democratic Party’s contribution to the NASDAQ peak in late 2007. Clarifying, the Democrats took control of Congress in January 2007. It took them awhile, but they eventually organized their activities to expire the stock market bull from 2003. Technically, the NASDAQ’s inability to match that 2007 peak is a bit discerning. Keep in mind the NASDAQ100 has exceeded its prior 2007 peak, but barely.

On the same webpage, scrolling upward, you will notice the NYSE is nowhere near matching its 2007-peak and thus technically remaining in a severe bear market in spite of pundits constantly promoting the vast range of history as beginning in March 2009.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 296 of the 340-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 49.2%. That annualizes to 46.0%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 296-stocks and funds for an average of 55.7-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 38-stocks and funds of 340-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 41.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 98.5-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Mar 12, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 227-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 36.0-weeks. They were up by an average of 30.6% (annualized at 44.1%). There were 89-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 33.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 79.3-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 22-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Mar 6, 2009. They were up by an average of 102.8% (annualized at 57.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 92.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 322-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 38.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 40.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued dominating on this weekend in 2009.

There were 148-stocks and funds with hold signals on Mar 7, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 168.7-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 190.7% (annualized at 58.8%). There were 190-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 16.4% from their respective sell signals an average of 17.2-weeks earlier. There were seven buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 216-sell signals in the prior 17-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008.

On Mar 9, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 300-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 111.2% (annualized at 58.6%) since their buy signals an average of 98.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 42-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 9.9% since their sell signals an average of 17.0-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and 2-sell signals on this weekend in 2007. (Note: An error in sell signals last week was corrected on the website. It said there were “no 15-sell signals.” It should have stated there were “no sell signals”).

Five years ago, on Mar 10, 2006, there were 290-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 111.0% (annualized at 61.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 94.6-weeks earlier. There were 54-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 9.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 23.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2006.

On Mar 11, 2005, there were 241-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 86.2%, annualizing at 61.9%, since their respective buy signals an average of 72.4-weeks earlier. There were 68-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 28.9% since their sell signals an average of 52.4-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and nine sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 263-stocks and funds with hold signals on Mar 12, 2004. They were up by an average of 68.4%, annualizing at 77.2%, since their buy signals 46.1-weeks earlier. The 15-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 27.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 39.2-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and 16-sell signals on this weekend in 2004.

On Mar 14, 2003, there were 124-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 25.3% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 23.3-weeks earlier. That annualized at 56.7%. There were 141-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 11.0% since their sell signals an average of 8.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds in 2002-late 2004. There were 17-buy signals and 14-sell signals on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was three weeks old on this weekend in 2003. More buy signals were to follow in subsequent weeks.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

There was one sell signal this weekend.

In spite of the stock market’s short-term bearish behavior, the Mid-term Indicant has computed this as a mere bearish spurt. There was only one stock with high risk holding configurations, triggering a sell signal. Several others are troubled, but remain configured as spurt activity as opposed to establishing a sustainable bearish cycle.

The Mid-term continues with support for the bull, while the Short-term Indicant has identified some threatening elements. That suggests a mere bearish spurt may be unfolding.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 65.3% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 143.7% and the S&P500 is up 67.9% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 149.6% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011. Much of that depends, however, on unrest in the Middle East, related oil prices, and political mumbo-jumbo by U.S. politicians.

The NASDAQ is down 46.2% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 14.6% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 2.7% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 16.9% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 1.1% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was down 4.8%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 3.0% and finishing up for that year by 1.4%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 6.2% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 2.6% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was down by 1.1% at this time in 2007, finishing up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 15.0% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was down 13.0% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 4.4% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 15.0% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 5.0% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 16.7% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The S&P600-small cap index is down 4.3% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Interestingly, the NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago. It continues maintaining that lofty achievement. It is up by 2.7% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400 is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that is also above pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 2.9% since its prior peak on Jul13/2007. The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 19.8% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow is up 84.0% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 114.1% and the S&P500 is up 92.8% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 134.5% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-January 2010 bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Mid-term Indicant and Short-term Indicant are no longer suggesting impending bearishness. However, the Short-term Indicant is enduring some bearish spurt configurations.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. It endured significant bearishness four weeks ago, held flat the past three weeks, and dropped significantly last week. Bernanke, apparently, remains concerned with the economic outlook. All of this continues suggesting few demand problems. The 2012 forecasted values do not yet indicate any significant increases. Keep in mind these forecasts are purely statistical, but qualitative inquiries are not suggesting different projections at this time.

However, the 6-month CD yield increased significantly 13-weeks ago, suggesting desired longer-term upward pressures by the banks. Even with all that, it remains depressed and has been flat since then. It fell 10-basis points three weeks ago. In essence, a level of stability has been found after wild variations in such a minor investment vehicle. Anyone buying a 6-month CD at 0.40% with 2+% CPI is heading to the poor house unless deflationary pressures manifest. At any rate, all CD’s remain as Yellow Bears. China is enduring CPI’s ranging above 4.0% and increasing interest rates because of that.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status seven weeks ago and holding at that level, but remains with weakening trend and weakening mid-term cycle. There is no good reason to assume its long-term cyclical decline will reverse. The Canadian dollar, like the Yen, had been stable for several weeks with a mild strengthening bias. They both accelerated their strength from mild status the past two weeks. Both the Yen and Canadian dollar’s cyclical direction and trend remain bullish. The CA$ tends to parallel oil prices. The forecast for the CA$ continues with projected strengthening. The Japanese Yen trend and mid-term cycle continues with strengthening trend, but has been trading in a shallow zone the past several weeks. The Yen did not react too bearishly with its earth quake and tsunami.

Overall, the US dollar threatens to continue strengthening, but continues to weaken against the Japanese Yen (high productivity) and the Canadian dollar (resource rich).

As stated by the Indicant for several months, it is priced where the Kingdom finds comfort at around $80/bbl, albeit departing on the high end of his desired tolerance levels the past several days. It has been nudging a bit higher than that for the past several weeks. It achieved Red Bull status this week for the first time since 2007. The high-end forecast continues to project $120/bbl by 2012. The Saudi Kingdom will have to approve that, though. Middle Eastern unrest offer additional pizzazz to its recent bullishness. The King is probably a bit concerned about his job security and related pleasures, but there is little doubt the kingdom remains in charge of such matters. Speculators can shift the numbers around and if oil prices escape his desired targets, rest assured he will take countermeasures.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, you will find the Reuter’s UK Commodities Index continues moving north since early 2009. It is a Red Bull. It continues to skyrocket, setting a new all time high during the week of November 8, 2010. It continued setting new highs until the past few days; again to souring economic projections and default threats from Spain. It remains economically bullish with inflationary considerations later. The CRB Bridge Futures continues its shift from waffling to more bullish aggression. It is also a solid Red Bull.

This paragraph remains the same. Commodities, overall, discontinued behavior consistent with uncertainty in favor of outright bullishness. Recent bearish behavior remains irrelevant. “Extract baby extract” seems to be an evolving theme as more people around the planet are moving toward capitalistic progressions in spite of American waffling.

Mortgage rates remain configured with countering the prevailing bearish trend. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. However, they again achieved Red Bull status the past two weeks.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 7.5%, annualizing at 15.5% since then. It was solidly bearish last week. As stated the past six weeks, gold could be in trouble, while displaying periodic resistance to that prognosis. If there is no retreat in the next week or two, it will most likely continue moving to the north.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 19.3% since then, annualizing at 12.6%. This lazy fund has been bearish in six of the past nine weeks. It was solidly bearish last week.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 27.7%, annualized at 56.9% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 47.1%, annualized at 97.0%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 38.7% since then, annualizing at 78.6%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 71.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 31.3%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It is up 2.1%, annualizing at 35.6%, since its most recent Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All the major indices are up by an average of 26.1% since their bull signals an average of 48.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 27.9%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $31,588,091. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,832,405 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $154,140. That beats buy and hold’s $127,758 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $232,280. That beats buy and hold’s $94,161 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 75.2% since then. It will receive a buy signal only if the Quick-term Indicant signals buy for QID, which occurred last August, but quickly endured “fluttering” behavior, followed by bearish aggression. A sell signal quickly ensued. That fluttering prevented the buy signal for MF#22.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 316.1% (annualized at 16.3%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,010-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Recent comments about the bear’s inspiration manifested this past Thursday. Although this is most likely a bearish spurt, it appears to have some tenacity.

The Quick-term Indicant continues signaling hold for all the ETF’s it tracks on a daily basis. A sell signal will not occur until prices fall below the QTI bearish yellow curve.

Major indices and most non-contrarian ETF’s remain with relatively high Vector Pressure, including those with bear/avoid signals. Therefore, the bull still has some weapons to unleash toward the bear. However, contrarian ETF’s Force Vectors continue rising in bullish domains. Non contrarians are falling in bearish domains. There is an absence of consistency, suggesting a lack of strong bullish or bearish commitment, but with a mild edge favoring the bear on the short-term cycle.

The Mid-term Indicant remains with solid bullish configurations and will be discussed in the weekly report.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bull and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for six of the non-contrarian indices and contrarian VIX. They are up 12.6% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 19.0-weeks ago. That annualizes to 34.5%. These performance statistics include contrarian VIX. The bull signals for both contrarian (VIX) and the non-contrarians will not last long. As stated since last Monday, either the VIX will quickly receive a bear signal or the non-contrarian indices will receive a bear signal. As you can see, some of the major indices received a bear signal this past Thursday, while contrarian VIX retained its bull signal.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for six indices. They are up 0.6% since their bear signals on May 10, 2011. NTI is a common response point to bearish aggression and that occurred this past Friday. Unfortunately, the stock market does not always bounce back into bullish glee. Sometimes it bounces to the north but cannot fully recover from damages inflicted by the bear. Configurations remains supportive of the latter, but that can quickly change.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices and contrarian VIX. All 12-major indices are up by an average of 14.5% since their bull signals an average of 23.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 31.8%. The VIX will receive a bear signal when it falls below QTI Yellow. The Near-term signal will also occur then.

Short-term Market Summary

In spite of last Thursday’s Near-term Indicant bear signals, eleven Red Bull configurations remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. Although some of these Red Bull configurations have Near-term bear signals, they remain as Quick-term bulls. The Near-term cycle remains a bit distressed with only four non-contrarian Blue Bulls.

VIX Force reversed direction last Monday from its prior bearish cycle. That is bullish for the VIX and one reason for its bull signal last Monday. If this VIX cycle turns out to be profitable, the stock market will require a short-term bearish cycle. The major indices remain bullish to the extent their respective NTI Green curves are continuing to rise. Bear signals will occur if they fall below their green curves. And that occurred last Thursday for six of them.

The bull and bear are engaging in battle. The bear dealt a significant blow to the bull last Thursday, but rest assured the battle has only begun. The bull responded this Friday to that bearish aggression, but puny when considering the bear’s blow on Thursday.

Indicant Volume Indicators

This has been a low volume bull since inception in May 2009 with occasional volume surges in support of the bull. The NASDAQ IVI is rising with mixed correlation to bull/bear expressions. The big board’s IVI remains lethargic.

Mar 11, 2011-Fri-Flat volume on the passive side of it suggests the stock market lacks commitment to either bullish or bearish directional intensity.

Mar 10, 2011-Thu-Volume was up, but not dramatically, on today’s bearish aggression. Near-term bullish bias, however, has been shaken. There were some bear/sell signals on today’s aggression. Many fell below their Near-term Bearish Green Curve with declining Force and Pressure.

Mar 9, 2011-Wed-Low volume on mixed behavior is not enlightening. Bullish bias prevails.

Mar 8, 2011-Tue-Apologies for not reviewing yesterday. However, it would seem redundant as passive volume accompanied bearish aggression; same on today’s bullish aggression. It is almost not worthy of mention. However, there has not been sufficient volume to challenge prevailing bullish bias.

Mar 4, 2011-Fri-Intraday bearish aggression was accompanied with low volume. The bull and bear battles are pretty much limited to reactionary floor traders. At any rate, bullish bias prevails with respect to volume correlations.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 14.8% since their buy signals an average of 20.1-weeks ago. This annualizes at 38.3%.

The NTI is avoiding eleven ETF’s. They are up by an average of 0.5% since their sell signals an average of 1.8-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 32-ETF’s. They are up 18.6% since their buy signals an average of 29.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 32.3%. The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for both contrarian and non-contrarian ETF’s. That combination of hold signals will not last too long.

The Quick-term Indicant is not avoiding any ETF’s, including contrarian ones.

Short-term Summary: There are 21-Red Bulls (lost four last Wed/Thu), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 7-Blue Bulls continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear (gained one today, but lost six last Wed/Thu). Many ETF’s are enduring difficulties in holding their Blue Bull status. That suggests the Near-term bullish cycle is tiring. In spite of that, though, it only takes one NTI Blue Bull to discourage excesses by near-term bear cycles. There are only seven, but only four of them are non-contrarians.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 38.7%, annualizing at 78.6%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains bullish, but no longer solid, as Force remains in bearish domains. However, Pressure is too high to allow massive bearish influences in this sector.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 71.4% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 31.3%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $124.52 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 2.1% since then, annualizing at 35.6%.

Near-term attributes for signaling next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

Major ETF Events

Mar 11, 2011-Fri-None

Mar 10, 2011-Thu-There were several bear/sell signals today. Several prices fell below NTI Green with Force in bearish domains. Those Force cycles are not bearishly mature. There will be a rebound within days, but too many configurations are not supportive of waiting for that rebound.

Mar 9, 2011-Wed-ETF#12-XLU, reflecting the Utilities Index, was very bullish on today’s mostly bearish behavior, although a bit mixed. Some argue that is bearish for the stock market. ETF#14-TLT NTI Green Curve is rising and its Force Vector is mature. That is somewhat bullish for TLT. However, it will not receive a buy signal until the stock market shows more interest in becoming bearish.

Mar 8, 2011-Tue-Today’s bullish bounce was accompanied with solid bullish news. That is not bullish. Prices are having difficulty holding NTI Bullish blue. If they do, then that is bullish. If not, then the bear will be inspired.

Mar 7, 2011-Mon-Several contrarians were not. The stock market is struggling with commitment to bull or bear, but as long as prices remain above NTI Green, bear/sell signals will not be generated.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Mar 11, 2011. Several prices fell below NTI Green with declining and weak Force. Although Vector Pressure still supports the bull, risks of holding are too high for those receiving a sell signal. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market endured bearish convergence last week. Most sectors were bearish. Commodities and even precious metals endured bearishness this past week. That offers some mild suppression to inflationary concerns, while a continuation of such configurations would introduce deflationary concerns.

Economic fundamentals continue improving, but international political conflicts are pestering.

The overall stock market has enjoyed bullish convergence in four of the past six weeks. The stock market did not deliver the desired four consecutive weeks in this recent cycle. In spite of less than desired bullish attributes, there is little reason to fear a dynamic and aggressive bear at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions have yet to produce significant increases in volume. Volume should increase in coming weeks and months, offering additional obviations of directional intensity. The absence of that expectation is somewhat discerning, as the bull will require significant increases in volume to sustain itself. At least that is the norm. Regardless, though, of these extraneous attributes, one cannot argue with a low volume bull.

As stated the past 75-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle. International tensions, however, are adding a mild threat to bullish commentary.

Political phenomena in the U.S., coupled with low interest rates, continue in support of the bull.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation is an accurate descriptor of the current economy. That, coupled with unrest in the Middle East, could inspire the bear to gain traction. Keep in mind, though, inflation is inevitable in the future unless Congress is successful in reducing 2.5-trillion dollars from the national debt. Recent political rhetoric is increasingly passive toward that amount. Executed passivity toward debt reductions will continue to feed inflationary potential.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

03/13/2011

Mar 6, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Configurations Similar to 1970’s

Oil is a Red Bull for first time since late 2007. The chart is on the right side of the page that displays upon clicking the prior sentence. All major commodity indices are Red Bulls and aggressively so. All of Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac mortgage rates are Red Bulls in spite of the winding down of those two organizations.

Adding fuel to rising oil prices is continued unrest in the Middle East. Gadhafi wants to keep his kingdom, which is always the most important thought of any king. People in the Middle East are expressing significant disliking to their kingdoms.

After all, monarchies are irrational. Even with that, though, another one typically replaces existing monarchies. The Saudi Kingdom appears to be solid. Saudi Arabia is the petro swing nation. In other words, the Saudis tend to increase production and the supply of oil when other sources are shutdown. In essence, Saudi Arabia is friendly to stabilizing oil prices.

Although the Saudi Kingdom appears solid, Middle Eastern unrest threatens the supply lines from Saudi Arabia. The stock market gets a bit jittery with such threats from time to time. This can cause stock market volatility, which you saw last week.

Military conflicts, regardless of their location or cause, can and generally do create resource shortages. The laws of supply and demand always prevail. Capital markets do not wait for the ratio of demand over supply to increase. Much of this is anticipatory. When the anticipation is wrong, capital markets quickly adjust to new evolving themes and projections.

However, when such anticipations are accurate, prices will rise. Sometimes the anticipations will drive prices higher than fundamentally justified at a moment in time. Eventually, fundamentals assume control and prices manifest purely to fundamental levels. The simple law of supply and demand has no legislative solution. It is what it is. Political interference only worsens it.

Once undesirable inflationary levels occur, the stock market bear is increasingly aroused. The Federal Reserve in the U.S. and other countries raise interest rates. They will do this to depress demand in hopes of fending off unacceptable levels of inflation. Interest rates remain low for the purposes of stimulating demand. It takes very little energy and zero capital to increase interest rates. If interest rates start rising, do not assume it will be a slow path upward. They can be raised by tremendous amounts in a short period.

Inflation or high interest rates and/or both can stimulate the stock market bear. Historical standards suggest the stock market bear dominates when the combination of inflation and interest rates sum to eight percent or more. This also occurs when the absolute value of deflation and interest rates exceed eight percent. Deflation, however, is not threatening at this time.

Combined inflation and interest rates are nowhere near the eight percent number. The stock market bear does not wait for that eight percent bogie to occur. The capital markets anticipate that and with that, the stock market bear can start its dominance well ahead of less than desired inflation and/or interest rate levels.

Although the stock market was mildly bullish last week, it endured significant bearishness on a few days. Some of that bearishness was based on anticipation, as opposed to prevailing inflation and interest rates. Accompanying those bearish days were increases in all commodities, including gold. There have been several such days the past few weeks that have configured similarly to that of the 1970’s stock market. Click this sentence to view the Dow’s behavior from 1972 through 1976. This sentence will take you to the Dow’s 1976-1980 behavior.

The short-term bull and bear are battling. These battles are not minor ones, but they are increasingly lending support to near-term bearishness. If short-term Force Vectors retreat early next week, the probability of a near-term bear will increase significantly. Much of this is based on declining Vector Pressure. If short-term Force Vectors continue moving north early next week, the probability of continued bullishness will more than offset those favoring the bear.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 298 of the 340-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 51.4%. That annualizes to 49.1%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 298-stocks and funds for an average of 54.5-weeks.

One year ago, on Mar 5, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 209-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 40.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 32.0% (annualized at 41.5%). There were 89-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 31.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 78.3-weeks earlier one year ago. There were 18-buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 23-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Mar 6, 2009. They were up by an average of 102.5% (annualized at 58.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 91.8-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 321-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 44.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 39.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued dominating on this weekend in 2009.

There were 145-stocks and funds with hold signals on Feb 29, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 170.0-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 198.8% (annualized at 60.8%). There were 195-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 11.4% from their respective sell signals an average of 16.5-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 214-sell signals in the prior 16-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008.

On Mar 2, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 301-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 108.8% (annualized at 57.7%) since their buy signals an average of 98.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 28-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 12.7% since their sell signals an average of 21.6-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2007.

Five years ago, on Mar 3, 2006, there were 290-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 115.4% (annualized at 64.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 93.6-weeks earlier. There were 54-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 9.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 22.0-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

On Mar 4, 2005, there were 249-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 87.3%, annualizing at 64.8%, since their respective buy signals an average of 70.1-weeks earlier. There were 67-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 29.3% since their sell signals an average of 53.6-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and three sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 275-stocks and funds with hold signals on Feb 27, 2004. They were up by an average of 73.1%, annualizing at 85.1%, since their buy signals 53.6-weeks earlier. The 17-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 26.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 44.7-weeks earlier. There were four buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2004.

On Mar 7, 2003, there were 135-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 22.5% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 21.1-weeks earlier. That annualized at 55.6%. There were 131-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 12.0% since their sell signals an average of 7.9-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds in 2002-late 2004. The 2003 bull market was two weeks old on this weekend in 2003. More buy signals were to follow in subsequent weeks.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

There were no signals this weekend.

The Mid-term and Short-term Indicant continue with support for the bull. The mid-term election year continues offering traction toward stock market bullishness. Much of this gain correlated with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011, albeit with potential near-term bearish expressions. The stock market’s bull, though, continues to impress with its resilience with each bearish incursion. Keep in mind configurations do not yet support such bearishness. That prognosis rests on political dynamics and historical standards. However, current configurations suggest that mere bearish spurts may manifest, but none support bearish dominance.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 67.0% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 149.9% and the S&P500 is up 70.1% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 155.5% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011. Much of that depends, however, on unrest in the Middle East and related oil prices.

The NASDAQ is down 44.8% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 13.5% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 3.8% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 14.3% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 4.7% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was down 2.1%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 2.6% and finishing up for that year by 1.4%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 4.8% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 4.4% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was down by 2.0% at this time in 2007, finishing up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 14.8% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was down 14.2% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 1.0% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 14.1% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 2.6% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 15.6% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The S&P600-small cap index is down 2.0% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Interestingly, the NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 a several weeks ago. It continues maintaining that lofty achievement. It is up by 5.4% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400 is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that is also above pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 4.6% since its prior peak on 7/13/2007. The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 18.8% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow is up 85.9% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 119.5% and the S&P500 is up 95.3% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 140.0% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-January 2010 bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Mid-term Indicant and Short-term Indicant are no longer suggesting impending bearishness.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

As promised by Bernanke over a year ago, the discount rate (and prime) rate are holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. It endured significant bearishness three weeks ago and held flat the past three weeks. That suggests little demand problems. The 2012 forecasted values do not yet indicate any significant increases. Keep in mind these forecasts are purely statistical, but qualitative inquiries are not suggesting different projections at this time. However, the 6-month CD yield increased significantly twelve weeks ago, suggesting desired longer-term upward pressures. Even with all that, it remains depressed and has been flat since then. It fell 10-basis points two weeks ago. In essence, a level of stability has been found after wild variations in such a minor investment vehicle. Anyone buying a 6-month CD at 0.40% with 2+% CPI is heading to the poor house unless deflationary pressures manifest. At any rate, all CD’s remain as Yellow Bears. China is enduring CPI’s ranging above 4.0% and increasing interest rates because of that.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status six weeks ago and holding at that level, but remains with weakening trend and weakening mid-term cycle. There is no good reason to assume its long-term cyclical decline will reverse. The Canadian dollar, like the Yen, had been stable for several weeks with a mild strengthening bias. Last week, though, they both accelerated their strength from mild status. Both the Yen and Canadian dollar’s cyclical direction and trend remain bullish. The CA$ tends to parallel oil prices. The forecast for the CA$ continues with projected strengthening. The Japanese Yen trend and mid-term cycle continues with strengthening trend, but has been trading in a shallow zone the past several weeks.

Overall, the US dollar threatens to continue strengthening, but continues to weaken against the Japanese Yen (high productivity) and the Canadian dollar (resource rich).

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull to boot in spite of near-term cyclical bearishness. The prior $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to challenged, based on political dynamics. However, statistical bullishness remains in tact. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable, but enjoying steady increases the past several weeks. Middle Eastern unrest is adding a bit of pizzazz to those increases.

As stated by the Indicant for several months, it is priced where the Kingdom finds comfort at around $80/bbl, albeit departing on the high end of his desired tolerance levels the past several days. It has been nudging a bit higher than that for the past several weeks. It achieved Red Bull status this week for the first time since 2007. The high-end forecast continues to project $120/bbl by 2012. The Saudi Kingdom will have to approve that, though. Middle Eastern unrest offer additional pizzazz to its recent bullishness. The King is probably a bit concerned about his job security and related pleasures, but there is little doubt the kingdom remains in charge of such matters. Speculators can shift the numbers around and if oil prices escape his desired targets, rest assured he will take countermeasures.

Commodity price’s quick-term cycle continues increasing. Significant bullish behavior continues. They are not yet contributory to inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are enjoying Red Bull status. This remains economically bullish. Spot prices have expressed stability for the past few weeks.

This paragraph remains the same. Commodities, overall, discontinued behavior consistent with uncertainty in favor of outright bullishness. “Extract baby extract” seems to be an evolving theme as more people around the planet are moving toward capitalistic progressions in spite of American waffling.

Mortgage rates remain configured with countering the prevailing bearish trend. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. However, they again achieved Red Bull status this past week.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable.

Overall, hard economic data continues with stability, albeit with increasing commodity prices. That is non-bearish, but lending support to longer-term inflationary potential. However, rising productivity from increased interests in capitalism around the world could significantly dampen inflationary threats. That, coupled with U.S. political dynamics of potential massive sovereign debt reductions, suggests dynamic bullishness.

At some point, the U.S. Congress will learn they have no influence on how China, India, and other countries manage their economies, which will enjoy larger economies than the U.S. at some point. If those rapidly developing economies retain a penchant for capitalism, rest assured prices for all commodities will escalate. However, rising productivity associated with capitalists could dampen the effects on consumers. These potential economic shifts are unparalleled in the annals of history.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 15.5%, annualizing at 33.2% since then. It was mildly bearish last week. As stated the past five weeks, gold could be in trouble, but it displayed some resistance to that prognosis the past four weeks. If there is no retreat in the next week or two, it will most likely continue moving to the north. It was bullish last week.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 23.8% since then, annualizing at 15.7%. This lazy fund has been bearish in five of the past eight weeks, but mildly bullish last week.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 33.0%, annualized at 70.7% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 54.6%, annualized at 117.0%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 44.6% since then, annualizing at 94.5%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 72.8% since that buy signal, annualizing at 32.2%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It is up 2.9%, annualizing at 74.8%, since its most recent Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All the major indices are up by an average of 27.4% since their bull signals an average of 47.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 29.9%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $31,917,180. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,851,496 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $156,134. That beats buy and hold’s $129,410 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $238,188. That beats buy and hold’s $96,556 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 76.6% since then. It will receive a buy signal only if the Quick-term Indicant signals buy for QID, which occurred last August, but quickly endured “fluttering” behavior, followed by bearish aggression. A sell signal quickly ensued. That fluttering prevented the buy signal for MF#22.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 320.4% (annualized at 16.5%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,009-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Several more Force Vectors crossed into bullish domains, supporting the stock market bull this past Thursday. However, many found resistance to their desire to penetrate bullish domains on Friday. Even more endured difficulty crossing above Pressure. That is inspirational to the stock market bear.

Also, non-contrarian ETF’s are having difficulty holding their Blue Bull status. This suggests the near-term bull cycle is tiring. That is understandable. It is the most impressive near-term bullish cycle since the bull’s inception in May 2009.

Such bearish commentary does not mean the stock market bear is about to unleash a solid and long lasting attack on the bull. However, there is an increasing probability a bearish spurt may be in the offing. A long as prices remain above their respective Near-term Green curves, any bearish expressions should be considered as spurts. Sustainable and deep bearish behavior cannot occur as long as prices remain above the green curve.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Short-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven non-contrarian indices. These bulls are up 15.5% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 20.8-weeks ago. That annualizes to 38.7%. The lone bear is contrarian VIX. It is down 12.2% since its bear signal 24.1-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear for contrarian VIX on Sep 16, 2010. It is down 12.2% since that bear signal.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for all eleven major non-contrarian indices. The eleven major indices are up by an average of 17.4% since their bull signals an average of 24.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 36.5%.

Short-term Market Summary

Ten Red Bulls remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. The Near-term cycle remains a bit distressed with only two Blue Bulls. Four of them were lost today after gaining four this past Thursday. The Dow Transports is the lone major index that is not a Red Bull. It is struggling to retain its bull status.

All non-contrarian Force Vectors remain in bearish domains. However, they are increasing bullish Force. That should dampen the bear’s ambition. Most remain in bearish domains, but as long as they continue to increase, the bear will acquiesce to the bull’s desired dominance. Some short-term bullish support has been lost, but not enough to signal bears for the major indices. Vector Pressure remains relatively high and protective of bull’s ambition. However, the transport’s Pressure is nearing bearish domains. If it dips into bearish domains, the other major indices will be rattled.

VIX Force continues its decline, which supports VIX bearishness and stock market bullishness. Its Force cycle bearishly mature, but until it reverses, the stock market bull remains in tact. If it reverses early next week, do not be surprised at bearish stock market spurt behavior.

Indicant Volume Indicators

Mar 3, 2011-Thu-Although volume was up on today’s bullish aggression, it remains subdued. However, bullish bias prevails.

Mar 2, 2011-Wed-Volume again depressed on mild bullish behavior. Although a bearish spurt can occur, it has no significant support for a sustainable bear market.

Mar 1, 2011-Tue-Volume was mildly up on bearish aggression. A few more like that will influence short-term bias shift from bullish.

Feb 28, 2011-Mon-Volume remains subdued, which does nothing to threaten bullish bias.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 18.8% since their buy signals an average of 23.0-weeks ago. This annualizes at 42.6%.

The NTI is avoiding seven ETF’s. They are down by an average of 13.4% since their sell signals an average of 12.2-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 22.6% since their buy signals an average of 32.0-weeks ago. This annualizes at 36.8%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 3-ETF’s (QID, VXX, TLT). They are all contrarian ETF’s. They are down by an average of 43.5% since their sell signals an average of 46.2-weeks ago.

Short-term Summary: There are 25-Red Bulls (held flat since last Tue), mitigating dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. The 12-Blue Bulls continue mitigating dominance by the stock market bear. Friday’s bearish behavior wiped out nine of them. Many ETF’s are enduring difficulties in holding their Blue Bull status. That suggests the Near-term bullish cycle is tiring. In spite of that, though, it only takes one NTI Blue Bull to discourage excesses by the bear.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 44.6%, annualizing at 94.5%, since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status, mitigating sustainable bearish threats. The “energy bear” cannot find sustainable forces with current bullish attributes. This remains solidly bullish, although with mild concerns with its Force falling below Vector Pressure. That suggests some Middle Eastern softening and some profit taking possibilities on the short-term horizon.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 72.8% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 32.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $124.02 and still rising, albeit slowing down. Being patient here is important since your buy price approximates $80.65.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 2.9% since then, annualizing at 74.8%.

Near-term attributes for signaling next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a sell signal from Quick-term Indicant on Nov 15, 2010, as price fell below QTI-Yellow. It is down 1.9% since that sell signal. It is a Yellow Bear, which offers no bullish support.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 14, 2010. It is down 9.0% since then. It was solidly bearish last Wed-Thu, but enjoyed a bullish rebound on Fri.

Its configuration, as a stand alone observation, suggests near-term bearishness. Its contrarian nature supports stock market bullish bias. However, its Force Vector is configured with a possibility to support its bullishness. Early next week will offer greater obviations of directional intensity.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#31-QID on Sep 13, 2010. It is down 36.6% since then. As stated the past several days, attributes are no longer solidly bearish, while not yet strongly supporting the “short-bull.” The overall stock market is not yet supportive of QID’s bullish desires. Interestingly, it received a reverse stock split one week ago. Its bearish performance had it in single digit ranges a few days week before last. (Less than $10). Now it is above $50 due to the reverse split.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2010 for ETF#32-VXX. It is down 60.5% since then. Its Pressure is now positioned to offer a bullish expression on a short-term horizon. Interestingly, its Force Vector is bearishly mature.

Major ETF Events

Mar 4, 2011-Fri-Technical indicators shifted to support short-term bull and bear expressions. One or the other will win early next week. If the bear wins, configurations suggest it will be a mere bearish spurt.

Mar 3, 2011-Thu-TLT again solidly bearish.

Mar 2, 2011-Wed-TLT was solidly bearish. It remains configured to continue its bearish position and direction.

Mar 1, 2011-Tue-TLT was not contrarian. Also, today’s stock market bearish aggression should be considered as a mere spurt.

Feb 28, 2011-Mon-No major events; a minor one is worth noting. TLT crossed QTI Yellow. Current configurations suggest TLT will soon return to its prevailing bearish cycle.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Mar 04, 2011-Holding remains safe, relative to NTI Green prices. Prices remain above Green, for the most part, and Green is well above the buy prices. Falling below Green with minimal Force will trigger the next sell signals. International related ETF’s remain configured with weak bullish support. Some have endured recent sell signals and are being avoided. For those of you who bought GLD on Dec 2008 buy signal, wait for the price to fall below Yellow before selling.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed mild bullish convergence last week. Economic fundamentals continue improving and thus supportive. However, commodity prices are also increasing. This is inflationary. The stock market expressed concerns about potential inflationary pressures a few days last week.

The overall stock market has enjoyed bullish convergence in four of the past five weeks. The stock market did not deliver the desired four consecutive weeks. In spite of less than desired bullish attributes, there is little reason to fear a dynamic and aggressive bear at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The presidential pre-election year stock market bull remains in tact and in full conformance to historical standards. There is no technical support for stock market bearish behavior.

As stated the past 74-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle.

Political phenomena in the U.S., coupled with low interest rates, continue in support of the bull.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation is an accurate descriptor of the current economy. That, coupled with Libya, could inspire the bear to gain traction. Keep in mind, though, inflation is inevitable in the future unless Congress is successful in reducing 2.5-trillion dollars from the national debt. Recent political rhetoric is increasingly passive toward that amount. Executed passivity toward debt reductions will continue to feed inflationary potential.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

03/06/2011