May 29, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 05, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

The Great Depression of 2008-2018?

Politicians, government employees, and the Federal Reserve Board stated the bailouts in late 2008 prevented the next great depression. With the capital markets in a tailspin in late 2008, based on housing bubble bursting, TARP was used to infuse cash into the banking system to create loan capacity and prevent runs on the banks. After the cash infusion, the banks did not loan. They tightened credit anyway, which is common in any recession, and simply repaid the loans to the government. In effect, all that happened was press grabbing attention and simple money shuffling by the fat cats. Persistent high unemployment continues unabated while the fat cats remain as such an increasingly so.

The same people who created the economic crisis of 2008-current, claim to have prevented to next great depression. The problem with such claims is that it cannot be proven. It is mere theory, but politicians, government employees, the Federal Reserve Board, and the liberal press continue pontification their claim. This makes them feel great, which is enhanced by their constant use of the word, great.

Banks, most of which, are run by dilettante management, do not create wealth. They are mere intermediaries, who transfer money from one group of people to another group of people. Without the wealth creators from manufacturing, extraction, and agriculture, they would not even exist. They are indeed the first to expire, physically, during massive economic hardship, while the farmer would eat well. Of course, the farmer would need protection from those who do not know how to raise crop. The gun manufacturer would facilitate such protection. The gun, though, needs oil from the extractors for proper function.

That is one reason why folks cling to their guns and religion. What was the proposed alternative for folks to cling to by the politician who made that statement? There was none! That politician, like most who came before him, implied it would be better to “cling to my words.” Why would anyone want to cling to any politicians words? Clinging to something, one can suppose, is human nature and clinging to guns and religion is somehow offensive to some. Should one cling to government programs? Many do and the numbers of those clinging to those programs is increasing.

Political meddling in any societal function always leads to some economic or cultural dysfunction. The creation of Medicare contributed greatly to the current so-called healthcare crisis. The same type of people, politicians and government bureaucrats, who created Medicare, now claim they have yet a better solution; that is, universal healthcare.  Rest assured, it will get worse; not better. That is not theory. That is provable; both empirically and scientifically. All one has to understand is basic capacity requirements with respect to available capacity and various queuing models. The problem is that most politicians never took calculus and have no idea how to compute those phenomena.

A constitutional amendment could be written that if one never passed Calculus-II and possibly differential equations, one cannot run for public office. The current U.S. president never took calculus. Yet, he is compelled to tell others what they should not cling to. Such limited intelligence should hold opinions, quietly, as opposed to opening themselves to this line of criticism, which is based in fact, while the “clinging” comments are just a mere opinion of the way people should behave and emanating from a mere 3-pound brain which seldom functions for more than 100-years. Moreover, without an understanding of calculus, much of that brain function is indeed limited. Religion has been around before all existing three pound brains and will continue to exist long after all existing three pound brains crumble to dust.

People today are not what they once were. Many birthed from LBJ’s Great Society program are graying. Their existent and unproductive culture contributed to the $14-trillion in the U.S. The problem is they bred more like them and they can vote. Many of them pay no taxes. They are recipients of government payouts. Their voting power continues to increase. Therein lies the problem. They are approaching the majority of voters. Consequently, politicians cater to them because of the “give” message.

In effect, the politicians say things like, “healthcare is a universal right and I will give that to you.” The only people who can provide healthcare are doctors and nurses. Most politicians would probably feint if handed a scalpel and told to apply it to another human being. They have nothing they can contribute, but it does afford them the opportunity to use the word, “give,” which is a very powerful vote getting word.

The same political institution who supported LBJ’s Great Society resulted in slums. Jimmy Carter recognized home ownership as a way to minimize slums in U.S. society. So, he with hammer and nails, helped people get their own homes, figuring ownership would mitigate slum neighborhoods. That was good, as long as he had the hammer and nails offering help. However, he, along with Phil Graham and a few others promulgated the mortgage derivative. That facilitated yet more homeownership. Pencil whipping the solution was less demanding than personalized sweat equity; the easy vote getting route. The beginning of the housing bubble dates back to the 1970’s.

Politicians created the housing bubble. They created the healthcare crisis. They are always the source of any economic hardship. But yet, they will continue to claim, “we prevented the next Great Depression.”

The next time someone says, the government averted the Great Depression of 2008-2018, ask them to “prove it.” That person may continue pontificating their claim, but as Ann Rand once stated, “abdicate all irrational conversations.”

Political stalemate is a source of stock market bullishness. That should result in a reduction in deficit spending by the federal, state, and local governments. If political stalemate does not get more heated, the stock market bull may indeed expire.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

NAS#17-MRLV was the largest NASDAQ100 gainer this past week. It was up 12.8% after last week’s sell signal by the Mid-term Indicant. Its Pressure remains in bearish domains and Force is in decline. The MTI continues recommendations to avoid this stock. It is down 54.2% from its all time high of $35.32.

The largest NAS100 loser was NAS#23-LOGI. It was down 6.3% last week and down 67.3% since its all time high of $37.07. Although Force is rising, it is burdened in bearish domains along with Vector Pressure.

ISTK#35-PLUGD was down 38.7% last week. It was that category’s largest loser. This follows a one for ten stock split in the prior week. It is down 94.1% since the MTI signaled sell on Jan 4, 2008.

The biggest ISTK gainer last week was ISTK#06-LVLT was up 18.6% last week. This stock is down 98.2% since its all time high and down 20.6% since the MTI signaled sell on Sep 26, 2008. This stock is configured to support bullish behavior. It did not receive a buy signal based on a trouble stock market on a short-term basis.

The DJIA stocks ranged from its largest loser of -4.3% with its largest gainer at 2.7%.

The Dow Utility stocks traded in a tighter range with its largest loser at -3.8% and biggest gainer of 0.8%.

Mutual Funds behaved normally with a tight range with its largest loser at 2.6% and the largest gainer up 3.4%.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signal and three sell signals.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 296 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 54.8%. That annualizes to 43.8%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 296-stocks and funds for an average of 65.1-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 36-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 42.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 102.9-weeks ago.

One year ago, on May 28, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 209-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 48.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 29.2% (annualized at 31.3%). There were 107-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 18.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 74.8-weeks earlier one year ago.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 21-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on May 29, 2009. They were up by an average of 124.6% (annualized at 65.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 98.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 322-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 27.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 51.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear was beginning to lose its dominance on this weekend in 2009, while the Mid-term Indicant remained more conservative before signaling buy.

There were 213-stocks and funds with hold signals on May 23, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 125.7-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 143.5% (annualized at 59.4%). There were 130-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 18.5% from their respective sell signals an average of 30.5-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals on this weekend in 2008. There were two sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 249-sell signals in the prior 28-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the avoided stocks from late 2007 and early 2008 Mid-term Indicant sell signals remained with avoid signals during that “bullish spurt.”

On May 25, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 313-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 122.3% (annualized at 63.3%) since their buy signals an average of 100.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 31-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 13.6% since their sell signals an average of 26.9-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2007.

Five years ago, on May 26, 2006, there were 234-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 142.5% (annualized at 70.6%) since their respective buy signals an average of 104.9-weeks earlier. There were 100-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 5.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 15.9-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and ten-sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

On May 27, 2005, there were 208-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 98.6%, annualizing at 58.0%, since their respective buy signals an average of 88.4-weeks earlier. There were 112-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 25.8% since their sell signals an average of 56.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 229-stocks and funds with hold signals on May 28, 2004. They were up by an average of 79.7%, annualizing at 73.7%, since their buy signals 56.3-weeks earlier. The 50-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 12.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 18.4-weeks earlier. There were 16-buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2004 in addition to 53-sell signals in the prior five weeks. The meandering bear market was well underway at this time of year in 2004.

On May 30, 2003, there were 286-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 41.5% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 18.2-weeks earlier. That annualized at 118.7%. There were only six avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 24.9% since their sell signals an average of 27.3-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were three buy signals in addition to 196-buy signals in the prior ten weeks. There was one sell signal on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was fourteen weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On May 31, 2002, there were 157-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 27.6% since their buy signals an average of 28.4-weeks earlier. 123-stocks and funds were being avoiding since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell 10.8-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and 12-sell signals on this weekend in 2002. The 2000-2002 stock market bear remained in full force since then.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Most short-term attributes continue supporting the stock market bull. Several stocks remain overheated and thus a pullback would be natural. Regardless, though, Force Vectors continue favoring the stock market bull. If they shift back to the south, the stock market bear will be encouraged.

In spite of short-term concerns, the Mid-term Indicant attributes supporting the stock market bull remain strong.

The mid-term election year of 2010 behaved classically pivoting in support of the normally bullish pre-election year (2011). This behavior correlated well with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemate. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 70.8% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 151.0% and the S&P500 is up 71.4% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 161.5% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011.

The NASDAQ is down 44.6% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 12.9% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 6.1% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 8.9% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. Interestingly, the NASDAQ was explosively bullish on this week in 2001 in addition to the prior week.

The NASDAQ was down by 14.8% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 16.6%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 0.9% and finishing up for that year by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was down 4.6% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up by 0.2% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 5.9% at this time in 2007, finishing up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 6.4% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 9.8% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 0.4% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 12.2% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 2.2% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 15.0% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The S&P600-small cap index is up by 0.3% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs.

The NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is now up by 4.3% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400-MidCaps is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that is also above pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 6.9% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. The S&P600 joined ranks of this sort of bullish behavior in late March, but has succumbed to bearish ambition. However, it was bullish this past week and again up by 0.3% since its pre-crash high on Jul 19, 2007. The NASDAQ jumped above its Oct 31, 2007 peak on Apr 29, 2011, but expressed discomfort in doing so.

The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 19.1% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks from 2007 and 2000. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow30 and Dow Composite remain joined with the weak S&P100 Index. Those dilettante infested companies may participate more strongly with the stock market bull in spite of that infestation.

Most major indices last cyclical bottom occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 90.0% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 120.5% and the S&P500 is up 96.8% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 145.6% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Of course, such bearishness will eventually occur, but the Mid-term Indicant finds no evidence of that on the immediate horizon.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull at this time. Middle Eastern unrest remains threatening to the stock market bull, depending though on the nature of that unrest. If oil prices skyrocket, the bear will be delighted. If democracy expands in that region, the bull will be delighted. Current parameters suggest stock market bearishness in the event of maximal threats to the Saudi Kingdom, which is a stabilizing force in that region.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As promised by Bernanke, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. It endured significant bearishness 14-weeks ago and holding there after a bit of mild volatility. Bernanke, apparently, remains concerned with the economic outlook but carelessly ignoring inflationary pressures in the U.S. That carelessness will eventually shift to cognizance and with that, the great bear market will resume. The 2012 forecasted values do not yet indicate any significant increases. Keep in mind these forecasts are purely statistical, but qualitative inquiries are not suggesting different projections at this time.

The 6-month CD yield increased significantly 26-weeks ago, suggesting desired longer-term upward pressures by the banks. Since then it has settled back down. It remains depressed and had been flat to even more bearish since then. It fell 10-basis-points 14-weeks ago, another five points nine weeks ago, and another five basis points four weeks ago. In essence, a level of stability has been found with mild yield bearishness after wild variations in such a minor investment vehicle.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 19-weeks ago. In spite of its bearishness the past two weeks, it remains a Red Bull. The bullish U.S. dollar is simple technical adjustment. The Euro’s bullish Red Curve continues rising, joining the Bearish Yellow Curve’s rise. The European rate hike seven weeks ago contributed to Euro strengthening.

The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen while the Japanese Yen continues to weaken. Japan will require significant debt financing for rebuilding infrastructure. The Canadians will continue to enjoy their exports of commodities and raw materials.

Overall, the US dollar is weakening, but again threatening to strengthen. Inflationary pressures will eventually confront the market.

Eventually, the U.S. will be faced with either higher interest rates or $1,000 oil. Universal law will impose one or the other in varying orders of magnitude. With a maximum inflationary bias, gold would be priced above $10,000/oz.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to be challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold should decrease. However, statistical bullishness for gold remains in tact. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild bearish bias.

As stated by the Indicant for several months, oil is priced where the Kingdom finds comfort at around $80/bbl, albeit departing on the high end of his desired tolerance levels the past several months due, mainly, to instability in the Middle East. It has been nudging a bit higher than that for the past several weeks, but bearish the past several days. It achieved Red Bull status several weeks ago for the first time since 2007. The high-end forecast continues to project $120/bbl by 2012. The Saudi Kingdom will have to approve that, though. Middle Eastern unrest offer additional pizzazz to its recent bullishness.

Commodity prices continue with dynamic bullish aggression. Most have fallen of their recent record highs. That appears to be simple profit taking following sharp increases over several months. The tsunami effect on their bearishness a few weeks ago expired and replaced with normal greed-profit taking cycles. Significant bullish behavior continues along the mid-term to long-term cycle. They are not yet contributory to inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are enjoying Red Bull status.  This remains economically bullish.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures continues its shift from waffling to significant and dynamic bullish aggression. It is also a solid Red Bull and economically bullish albeit with long-term inflationary threats. After nearly a century, Reuters UK commodity tracking is not readily available. We will continue to find a reliable source for that information.

Commodity prices, overall, were bearish the past four weeks; some of which appears to be mere profit taking and a strengthening U.S. dollar. Do not be surprised at a bullish surge when they interact with the bullish Red Curve. Some have already done that, but all of them will have to do that before exciting the commodities bull. That will also require the U.S. dollar’s resumption of its bearish slide.

Mortgage rates remain configured with countering the prevailing bearish trend. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. They appear to have acquiesced to bearish direction, falling and staying below the declining bullish Red Curve.  Therefore, the underlying mid-term bearish cycle remains unthreatened.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable. That should change in the next few months. The CPI announcement on Friday, May 13, 2011 generated a bearish effect on the stock market. Since then rising unemployment and souring corporate earnings are arousing the stock market bear’s ambition.

Overall, hard economic data continues with stability, although cyclically increasing with recent profit-taking bearishness and some souring fundamentals, such as corporate earnings. That is challenging the former theme of being economically non-bearish. This also adds to the double edged sword of inflationary concerns. Rising productivity from increased interests in capitalism around the world could significantly dampen inflationary threats. That, coupled with U.S. political dynamics of potential massive sovereign debt reductions, suggests dynamic bullishness. Contrarian behavior, though, will indeed inspire the stock market bear ahead of depressing economic conditions.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 16.8%, annualizing at 24.0% since then. As stated five weeks ago, the Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold. That holds true in spite of bearish behavior in two of the last four weeks. It has been bullish the past two weeks.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 17.4% since then, annualizing at 9.9%. It was also bullish the past two weeks following two weeks of solid bearishness.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 29.5%, annualized at 42.1% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 47.2%, annualized at 67.4%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 30.5% since then, annualizing at 47.6%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 44.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 63.4%.

The Quick-term signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 41.4% since then, annualizing at 58.7%. The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on May 16, 2011, as it fell below NTI Green and unsupportive Force and declining Pressure. It is up 4.2% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 85.6% since that buy signal, annualizing at 34.4%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It is up 10.6%, annualizing at 38.8%, since its most recent Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All the major indices are up by an average of 30.3% since their bull signals an average of 59.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 26.4%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $32,629,750. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,892,831 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $157,301. That beats buy and hold’s $130,385 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $239,230. That beats buy and hold’s $96,979 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 76.4% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal. It is no longer getting close to a buy signal, as it appears to have succumbed to the stock market bull for the time being. It may not receive a buy signal until 2013, which is the next post election year.

Interestingly, ETF#31-QID received a buy signal from the Quick-term Indicant last week. Its Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains, though. Therefore, it is a bit too shaky to justify support for buying ProFunds Ultra Short.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 329.8% (annualized at 16.8%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,021-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

The stock market bull retains bullish support while the near-term cycle is increasingly supporting the bear. So far, configurations suggest a bearish spurt is underway, but risk are too high to continue holding for those with sell or avoid signals. The bull, however, is offering resistance, but anemically so. That does not bode well for near-term bullish expectations along the near-term cycle. Some ETF’s remain very bullish. That suggests they need to cool off. Their bullish configuration suggests the bull still has underlying influence, but some cooling is needed before the bull resumes dominance. If they do more than cooling and shift under the influence of the bear, this bearish spurt could mature into a dynamic bear. However, fundamentals do not yet support that, but keep in mind the stock market anticipates fundamentals as opposed to following them.

Bearish unanimity remains absent, though, and thus a bearish spurt remains configured. There are nine Red Bulls protecting against dynamic bearish behavior. Keep in mind, also bullish unanimity remains absent on the near-term cycle, which is certainly not inspirational to the stock market bull.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and one new bear. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The MTI signaled bear for the VIX this Friday. Its Force Vector fell into bearish domains. It is barely detectable. However, VIX Pressure remains bullish, which is a bit threatening to the new bear signal. The VIX is without direction.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull four major non-contrarian indices. They are the four Dow Indices. They are up by an average of 1.7% since their bull signals an average of 8.0-weeks ago. This annualizes at 10.9%.

The Quick-term Indicant also signaled bear this Friday for the VIX index.

The Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for the eleven major indices, including contrarian VIX, for an average of 33.8-weeks. They are up by an average of 19.2% since their bull signals, annualizing at 29.6%.

Short-term Market Summary

The Dow30 NTI Bullish Blue collapsed last Tuesday, while the other three major Dow Indices have yet to endure that bearish attribute. It will be interesting to see if the bull has enough left in it to respond to this insult by the bear along the near-term cycle. Its response was a bit weak the last three days of this past week, while unimpressive, but a bullish response nonetheless. The DJIA regained Red Bull status this past Thursday after losing it last Tuesday. The battle wages, but the war is a long way off before concluding with a victor when considering all short-term attributes.

As previously stated, the other three Dow Indices, Composites, Transports, and Utilities NTI Blue curves have not yet collapsed. Thus, there is no bear signal for any of the Dow Indices including the anemic Dow30. The Dow Utilities remains steadfastly in support of the bull, even though it was the only major non-contrarian index that was bearish last Wed and Thu. That suggests continuing money rotations, which is consistent with bearish spurts, as opposed to dynamic bearish behavior. Its configuration supports a mere technical adjustment. As long as that configuration remains in tact, the bear cannot dominate, while its pestering behavior is certainly disturbing.

There are only four contrarian Red Bulls (all Dow Indices). Although Red Bull population is down significantly the past few days, their existence diminishes excessive bearish magnitude. Unfortunately, seven Red Bulls were lost the past five days. Additionally, several NTI Blue Curves collapsed last Monday and the DJIA’s collapsed this past Tuesday. The expected bullish response occurred last Wed, Thu, and Fri, which is common after such collapses. This bullish response had little punch to it, but last Thursday’s response was a bit more impressive in the face of souring economic news.

Risk assessment favors recognition of the bear on those indices with the bear signal, as opposed to assuming a solid and long-lasting bullish response with the exception of the Dow Indices. Let’s again wait one more day to see if the bull has any punch left to these insults by the bear since the bull indeed responded the past three days.

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. It fell back into low activity a few weeks later. It continues moving lethargically. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains, while mildly increasing there. It appears to be peaking ahead of normally lethargic summertime volume. As stated the past several weeks, unless these configurations shift back to robustness, do not be surprised at overall stock market lethargy.

May 27, 2011-Fri-Depressed holiday volume masked directional intensity.

May 26, 2011-Thu-Passive volume on mild stock market behavior suggests little interesting in supporting bull or bear. It is meandering with support for near-term bearishness, albeit not dynamically so.

May 25, 2011-Wed-Mild volume on mild bullishness offset yesterday’s mild bearish behavior.

May 24, 2011-Tue-Same as yesterday with milder bearishness.

May 23, 2011-Mon-Low volume accompanied today’s bearish behavior, suggesting a bearish spurt in the face of underlying bullish bias.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 15-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 9.9% since their buy signals an average of 15.0-weeks ago. This annualizes at 34.3%.

The NTI is avoiding 17-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 0.1% since their sell signals an average of 1.4-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 24.4% since their buy signals an average of 41.4-weeks ago. This annualizes at 30.7%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down 6.3% since the QTI sell signals 3.2-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on May 16, 2011. It is up 4.2% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 41.4%, annualizing at 58.7% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until interacting at QTI Yellow. The short-term attributes remain bearish even though the energy bull is resisting bearish incursions. Keep in mind, this is along the near-term cycle and in between bullish and bearish desires. Force is bullishly mature, suggesting more bearishness is highly probable on the near-term horizon (within three days). It’s Pressure remains in bearish domains, which is one, but important reason, for continued avoidance.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 85.6% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 34.4%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $131.09 and still rising. Relaxation is in order since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $149.70. Force is again increasing, which supports short-term bullishness.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 10.6% since then, annualizing at 38.8%.

Near-term attributes for the next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure. Threatening is price below NTI Blue, but Pressure remains positive.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal on May 17, 2011 from the Near-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant. Force started rising in bullish domains. It is pretty hot, but the next sell signal will not occur until price falls below NTI Blue since the buy signal was tardy in doing so. It is down 0.1% since the buy signals.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on May 25, 2011 for ETF#31-QID. It is down 2.3% since then. Force remains in bullish domains with Pressure still lagging a bit in bearish domains, which threatens this hold signal.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Apr 1, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. The Short-term Indicant may discontinue tracking this ETN due to poor quality practices by its managers. It is down 24.6% since the sell signals.

Major ETF Events

May 27, 2011-Fri-The stock market continues resisting bearish assertions in the face of unfavorable news. However, the threat of bearish spurt behavior continues to pester.

May 26, 2011-Thu-The stock market was mildly bullish on today’s souring economic news. That supports the idea of bearish spurt behavior as opposed to dynamic bearishness.

May 25, 2011-Wed-ETF#01-QQQQ and ETF#02-SPY received Near-term sell signals. Although their respective Vector Pressures are in bullish domains, their Force Vectors dipped south and their prices are below NTI-Green curve. Although not necessarily bearish, their bullish response to bearish insults was too anemic to continue holding.

May 24, 2011-Tue-ETF#03-XLE Force crossed above Pressure and into bullish domains. Behavior in the next few days will be interesting, but it remains bearish on the near-term cycle.

May 23, 2011-Mon-More near-term sell signals based on reduction in Force and inevitability of Pressure falling into bearish domains. It will be interesting to see if the bull will respond to NTI Blue’s collapse today.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- May 27, 2011. The stock market bull retains bullish support while the near-term cycle is increasingly supporting the bear. So far, configurations suggest a bearish spurt is underway, but risk are too high to continue holding for those with sell or avoid signals. The bull, however, is offering resistance, but anemically so. That does not bode well for near-term bullish expectations along the near-term cycle. Some ETF’s remain very bullish. That suggests they need to cool off. Their bullish configuration suggests the bull still has underlying influence, but some cooling is needed before the bull resumes dominance. That is consistent with bearish spurt behavior. If they do more than cooling and shift under the influence of the bear, this bearish spurt could mature into a dynamic bear. Sell signals will be unleashed if all prices fall below NTI Green. Falling below QTI Yellow would stamp a “dynamic bear.”

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market endured bearish divergence for the second consecutive week. This is consistent with meandering stock market behavior, as conveyed from time to time in the daily stock market report.

Economic fundamentals continue improving, but international political conflicts continue pestering. The Japanese crisis remains discerning, but not completely configurable. U.S. political stalemating is always bullish. Hopefully, political discourse will accelerate.

The overall stock market has enjoyed bullish convergence in eight of the past fifteen weeks. The stock market did not deliver the desired four consecutive weeks in this recent cycle. In spite of less than desired bullish attributes, there is little reason to fear a dynamic and aggressive bear at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The presidential pre-election year stock market bull remains in tact and in full conformance to historical standards. There is no technical support for stock market bearish behavior even though short-term attributes remain threatening. Several bear/sell signals were generated last week by the Near-term Indicant model, while the Quick-term model remains with bull/hold signals. Force Vectors did not continue aggressively to the north the past two weeks, which is a bit disappointing for those desiring a stock market bull.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions have yet to produce significant increases in volume. Volume increases were detected eleven weeks ago that correlated with bearish behavior. Even with those increases, though, that volume behavior was not dynamic. Volume continues with lethargic configurations. With that, there is no volume support for bull or bear. When that happens, the prevailing bias is maintained and that remains bullish for most of the short-term attributes.

As stated the past 86-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle. International tensions, however, are adding a mild threat to bullish commentary, but interpretations of bullish support also make sense. In other words, do not be surprised at several weeks of meandering stock market behavior.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation remains as an accurate descriptor of the current economy. The stock market has apparently taken the Japanese nuclear crisis and Middle Eastern unrest in stride. That bodes well for the stock market bull.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

05/29/2011

May 22, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 05, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Debt, Moral Character, and Degeneration

Debt continues to stack up. Perpetuating the habits and deeds of weaklings threatens capitalism. That is the primary source of sovereign debt around the world; the perpetuation of the unproductive. That is bearish, depending on what percentage of the population supports the productive versus those that do not.

It has become fashionable by politicians and media to criticize the rich for not paying their fair share when most of the poor do not pay any tax at all. If all men are created equal, then how can there be a tax differential between the rich and the poor? There is too much commonsense in that question, but it will persist. Just not too many are capable of accepting its simplicity. Others argue that equality exists at birth and the separation begins shortly thereafter. That is a shallow argument. Those needing help obtain a greater quality of it from those closest to them versus that transferred through the stained hands of politicians.

The productive rich are too busy to listen to all the chitchat about how evil they are. Politicians and the media voice that chitchat. The lazy-rich are those who inherited accumulations from their ancestors. They are too busy doing whatever they do, but some, such as Dominique Strauss-Kahn, endure the exposure of their indecency from time to time. Those sorts, such as Edward Kennedy, originate from the same mold. Yet, they are/were leaders among their constituents. Although they are/were economic leeches and useless members of society, they enjoyed positions of appointment or election by their constituents. That says quite a bit about those who vote for such individuals. Societal values are indeed challenging the stock market bull. Keep in mind the stock market is flat to down that past eleven years.

Politicians and the media are increasingly bashing corporations. Society is creating what mathematicians call a degenerate solution. That is, there is no solution. Such problems crumble and the related systems perish. That is because the illogical, but required, variables contained therein are so numerous they dominate the problems’ contents, perpetuating the undesired degeneration. Illogical taxation and processing receipts thereof are the prime causes of economic and moral degeneration. In other words, if the majority in a democracy is voting slobs, the mathematical model results in degenerate solutions regarding that democracy. In essence, the democracy fails for it requires elements of productivity to work.

Corporations go bankrupt and deservedly so, except those that directly contribute to politicians. That is a new evolving phenomenon. Politicians for the voting members also protect union-laced corporations. What politicians and government bureaucrats do not understand is they will accelerate the demise of their corporate sponsors. Who is going to buy a plane from Boeing, knowing that some government bureaucrat disallows the best manufacturing practices when manufacturing errors at the union shop cause fuselage separation during flight? If the bureaucrat, Lafe Solomon, prevails, Boeing will have to relocate to another country, where such bureaucrats have less of a chance instituting such profound damage.

Former IMF-Chief, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, clearly demonstrated the values and character of those in charge of debt. The existence of that debt perpetuates the existence of those types of individuals in leadership positions in spite of limited necessity. The position held by the likes of Strauss-Kahn and organizations, such as the IMF, should not exist. Those who desire to be among royalty in their DNA, which is all politicians, create those phony organizations so they can live like kings. They love being in charge of the haves and have-nots. Unfortunately, for Strauss-Kahn civility remains in this society in spite of appalling the French with his arrest.

If the stock market senses the verbal attacks on the productive and ambitious will escalate to some form of punitive action by government or society, the bear will rejoice. The bear will also rejoice if governments, bureaucrats, and the likes of Strauss-Kahn gain more power. Economic leeches at powerful positions, regardless of their illogical existence, threaten the stock market bull.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

The only NAS100 double-digit change this past week was N100#48-Staples. It fell nearly 20%, triggering a sell signal since there are no floors available to stop dynamic bearish aggression. The remaining NAS100-stocks were relatively tame last week.

ISTK#35-PLUGD endured a 30.5% drop last week in the face of a one for ten stock split. Notice its symbol changed. Wall Street applies symbol changes when a company behaves unusually. Interestingly, the big Wall Street banks do not do this when they endure reverse stock splits. At any rate, PLUGD is down 98.6% since the Mid-term Indicant’s sell signal on Jan 4, 2008.

ISTK#81-SAMN fell 10.7% last week. It is down 14.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Nov 5, 2010. This stock has been enduring a decade long bearish trend, but trying to overcome. It remains above bearish yellow, avoiding a sell signal. Its Pressure remains in bullish domain. Technically, this stock is teetering between bullish and bearish inclinations. Most of you stopped out if you were holding. Fundamentally, this is not a strong stock, but potentially situated to become one. However, keep in mind this stock is down 96.9% from its all time high.

ISTK#18-EK-Eastman Kodak enjoyed at solid 23.3% gain last week. It is down 84.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on Nov 16, 2007. This former Dow30 stock continues to remain unimpressive. It peaked on Oct 1, 1996 at $80.25. It closed last week at $3.24. It enjoys these bullish bounces from time to time, but this dilettante infested company continues to demonstrate consistent incompetence relative to the markets it attempts to participate.

All of the other ISTK’s traded within plus or minus 10% last week.

DJIA#18-HPQ was down 11.0% last week due to its self-reported bearish outlook. Disappointedly, that triggered a sell signal. This MBA-intensified company may be about to endure a future similar to that of Eastman Kodak. HP cannot compete with the likes of Dell and foreign manufacturers. They are simply too slow.

The Dow Utilities continue with mild bullishness. They closed from the prior week from a gain of 5.2% to a loss of 2.7%.

Of the 100-mutual funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant, the largest gainer posted a 2.5% increase and the biggest loser was down by 3.1%.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated one buy signal and two sell signals.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 298 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 55.3%. That annualizes to 44.2%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 298-stocks and funds for an average of 65.0-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 34-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 46.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 109.3-weeks ago.

One year ago, on May 21, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 209-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 47.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 27.9% (annualized at 30.6%). There were 95-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 41.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 88.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and 12-sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 21-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on May 22, 2009. They were up by an average of 117.0% (annualized at 62.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 98.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 323-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 31.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 50.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear was beginning to lose its dominance on this weekend in 2009, while the Mid-term Indicant remained more conservative before signaling buy.

There were 210-stocks and funds with hold signals on May 16, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 126.0-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 151.7% (annualized at 62.6%). There were 130-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 14.9% from their respective sell signals an average of 30.5-weeks earlier. There were five buy signals on this weekend in 2008. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 249-sell signals in the prior 27-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the avoided stocks from late 2007 and early 2008 Mid-term Indicant sell signals remained with avoid signals during that “bullish spurt.”

On May 18, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 312-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 123.6% (annualized at 64.6%) since their buy signals an average of 99.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 31-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 13.9% since their sell signals an average of 26.1-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2007.

Five years ago, on May 19, 2006, there were 244-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 126.7% (annualized at 66.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 98.8-weeks earlier. There were 92-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 6.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 16.1-weeks earlier. There no buy signals and nine-sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

On May 20, 2005, there were 201-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 99.4%, annualizing at 57.0%, since their respective buy signals an average of 90.6-weeks earlier. There were 112-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 26.6% since their sell signals an average of 55.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 219-stocks and funds with hold signals on May 21, 2004. They were up by an average of 74.7%, annualizing at 67.5%, since their buy signals 57.6-weeks earlier. The 65-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 10.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 12.3-weeks earlier. There were eleven-buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2004 in addition to 52-sell signals in the prior four weeks. The meandering bear market was well underway at this time of year in 2004.

On May 23, 2003, there were 2-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 35.9% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 17.3-weeks earlier. That annualized at 108.3%. There were only nine avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 25.1% since their sell signals an average of 26.5-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There was one buy signal in addition to 195-buy signals in the prior nine weeks. There were two sell signals on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was thirteen weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals. This webpage was updated at 3:00 PM E.S.T. on Saturday, May 21, 2011. It is usually updated on Friday nights, so you may want to click the link again.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Most short-term attributes continue supporting the stock market bull. Force Vectors shifted back to the north this past week, but confronted with stock market bearishness. Regardless, though, Force Vectors continue favoring the stock market bull. If they shift back to the south, the stock market bear will be encouraged.

In spite of short-term concerns, the Mid-term Indicant attributes supporting the stock market bull remain strong.

The mid-term election year of 2010 behaved classically pivoting in support of the normally bullish pre-election year (2011). This behavior correlated well with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemate. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish. Mid-eastern unrest will resume its threat to the stock market bull, as a function of speculation of those empty souls who are attempting to gain control of petro flow into the capital markets. The problem with economic leeches and tyrants is their limited ability to see the big picture. In the end, their methods result in devolved processes. Their egos blind them of the fact they will also fall prey to their shenanigans.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 71.7% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 151.6% and the S&P500 is up 71.6% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 159.6% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011.

The NASDAQ is down 44.5% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 12.7% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 6.7% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 11.0% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. Interestingly, the NASDAQ was explosively bullish on this week in 2001 in addition to the prior week.

The NASDAQ was down by 12.8% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 11.6%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 5.3% and finishing up for that year by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was down 5.9% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was down by 0.5% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 5.9% at this time in 2007, finishing up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 6.0% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 9.6% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 9.6% on this weekend last year, mirroring 2009-YTD. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 11.7% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 2.0% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 14.8% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The S&P600-small cap index is down by 0.4% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Interestingly, the NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is now up by 5.0% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400-MidCaps is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that is also above pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 6.5% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. The S&P600 joined ranks of this sort of bullish behavior in late March, but has succumbed to bearish ambition. The NASDAQ jumped above its Oct 31, 2007 peak on Apr 29, 2011, but expressed discomfort in doing so.

The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 19.0% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks from 2007 and 2000. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow30 and Dow Composite remain joined with the weak S&P100 Index. Those dilettante infested companies may participate more strongly with the stock market bull in spite of that infestation.

Most major indices last cyclical bottom occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 91.1% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 121.0% and the S&P500 is up 97.1% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 143.9% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Of course, such bearishness will eventually occur, but the Mid-term Indicant finds no evidence of that on the immediate horizon.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull at this time. Middle Eastern unrest remains threatening to the stock market bull, depending though on the nature of that unrest. If oil prices skyrocket, the bear will be delighted. If democracy expands in that region, the bull will be delighted. Current parameters suggest stock market bearishness in the event of maximal threats to the Saudi Kingdom, which is a stabilizing force in that region.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As promised by Bernanke, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. It endured significant bearishness 13-weeks ago and holding there after a bit of mild volatility. Bernanke, apparently, remains concerned with the economic outlook but carelessly ignoring inflationary pressures in the U.S. That carelessness will eventually shift to cognizance and with that the great bear market will resume. The 2012 forecasted values do not yet indicate any significant increases. Keep in mind these forecasts are purely statistical, but qualitative inquiries are not suggesting different projections at this time.

The 6-month CD yield increased significantly 25-weeks ago, suggesting desired longer-term upward pressures by the banks. Since then it has settled back down. It remains depressed and had been flat to even more bearish since then. It fell 10-basis-points 13-weeks ago, another five points eight weeks ago, and another five basis points three weeks ago. In essence, a level of stability has been found with mild yield bearishness after wild variations in such a minor investment vehicle.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 18-weeks ago, falling sharply the past few days. Its bullish Red Curve continues rising, joining the Bearish Yellow Curve’s rise. The European rate hike six weeks ago contributed to Euro strengthening.

The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen while the Japanese Yen continues to weaken. Japan will require significant debt financing for rebuilding infrastructure. The Canadians will continue to enjoy their exports of commodities and raw materials.

Overall, the US dollar is weakening, but again threatening to strengthen. Inflationary pressures will eventually confront the market.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to be challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold should decrease. However, statistical bullishness for gold remains in tact. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild bearish bias.

As stated by the Indicant for several months, oil is priced where the Kingdom finds comfort at around $80/bbl, albeit departing on the high end of his desired tolerance levels the past several months due, mainly, to instability in the Middle East. It has been nudging a bit higher than that for the past several weeks, but bearish the past several days. It achieved Red Bull status several weeks ago for the first time since 2007. The high-end forecast continues to project $120/bbl by 2012. The Saudi Kingdom will have to approve that, though. Middle Eastern unrest offer additional pizzazz to its recent bullishness.

Commodity prices continue with dynamic bullish aggression. Most have fallen of their recent record highs. That appears to be simple profit taking following sharp increases over several months. The tsunami effect on their bearishness a few weeks ago expired and replaced with normal greed-profit taking cycles. Significant bullish behavior continues along the mid-term to long-term cycle. They are not yet contributory to inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are enjoying Red Bull status.  This remains economically bullish.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures continues its shift from waffling to significant and dynamic bullish aggression. It is also a solid Red Bull and economically bullish albeit with long-term inflationary threats. After nearly a century, Reuters UK commodity tracking is not readily available. We will continue to find a reliable source for that information.

Commodity prices, overall, were bearish the past three weeks; some of which appears to be mere profit taking. Do not be surprised at a bullish surge when they interact with the bullish Red Curve. Some have already done that, but all of them will have to do that before exciting the commodities bull.

Mortgage rates remain configured with countering the prevailing bearish trend. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. They are, however, bouncing around their respective bullish red curves, but have not influenced a directional shift in trend or cycle.  Therefore, the underlying mid-term bearish cycle remains unthreatened.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable. That should change in the next few months. The CPI announcement on Friday, May 13, 2011 generated a bearish effect on the stock market.

Overall, hard economic data continues with stability, although cyclically increasing with recent profit-taking bearishness. That is economically non-bearish, but lending support to longer-term inflationary potential. Rising productivity from increased interests in capitalism around the world could significantly dampen inflationary threats. That, coupled with U.S. political dynamics of potential massive sovereign debt reductions, suggests dynamic bullishness. Contrarian behavior, though, will indeed inspire the stock market bear ahead of depressing economic conditions.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 14.4%, annualizing at 21.2% since then. As stated four weeks ago, the Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold. That holds true in spite of bearish behavior in two of the last three weeks. It was mildly bullish last week.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 13.5% since then, annualizing at 7.8%. It was also bullish last week following two weeks of solid bearishness.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 26.5%, annualized at 38.9% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 42.7%, annualized at 62.7%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 26.3% since then, annualizing at 42.2%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 40.7% since that buy signal, annualizing at 59.8%.

The Quick-term signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 38.2% since then, annualizing at 55.7%. The Near-term Indicant signaled sell this past week on May 16, 2011, as it fell below NTI Green and unsupportive Force and declining Pressure. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 82.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 33.5%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It is up 8.9%, annualizing at 35.3%, since its most recent Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All the major indices are up by an average of 30.7% since their bull signals an average of 58.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 27.3%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $32.814,541. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,903,551 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $157,566. That beats buy and hold’s $130,958 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $239,783. That beats buy and hold’s $97,202 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 76.7% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal. It is no longer getting close to a buy signal, as it appears to have succumbed to the stock market bull for the time being. It may not receive a buy signal until 2013, which is the next post election year.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 332.1% (annualized at 16.9%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,020-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Near-term bearish ambition is not being discouraged. Force is vacillating in bearish domains.

Bearish unanimity is required for strong bearish cycles. The Dow Utilities is not participating with recent bearish behavior although it was the only bearish index yesterday and the weakest bullish expression today. Strong bears require unanimous support across all sectors, other than energy and commodities. ETF#10-IBB-Biotech,  which is not contrarian, remains with bullish configurations. Thus bearish unanimity is absent. The same is true for bullish support. Therefore, meandering behavior would not be surprising.

With that do not be surprised at meandering behavior with a touch of increased volatility.

Near-term,  Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull of all eleven major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 0.7% since their respective bull signals on Apr 1, 2011. This is annualizing at 4.9%. The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for contrarian VIX. It is up 0.2% since the bear signal on April 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant is also signaling bear of contrarian VIX. It is up 0.2% since the bear signal on Apr 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for the eleven major non-contrarian indices for an average of 32.8-weeks. They are up by an average of 19.5% since their bull signals, annualizing at 31.0%.

Short-term Market Summary

Eleven non-contrarian Red Bull configurations remain supportive of the Quick-term bull. Market behavior reasserted Red Bull status, offering significant resistance to bearish dominance. There is only one non-contrarian NTI Blue Bull. That offers very limited bullish support along the near-term cycle.

Some Force Vectors reversed back to the north last Wednesday. Since then, some have waffled, while others remain in favor of the bull. The Dow Utilities continues expressing strong bullish configurations. Interestingly, it was the only major index that was bearish last Wed, the weakest bullish expression this past Thu, and it was the least bearish this past Fri. That continues suggesting money rotation. With that, we have meandering potential ahead of us. The stock market bear cannot dominate along the near-term cycle until all are below NTI Green. Utilities strong bullish configuration is also a source of frustration to the stock market bear.

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. It fell back into low activity a few weeks later. It continues moving lethargically. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains, while mildly increasing there. As stated the past several weeks, unless these configurations shift back to robustness, do not be surprised at overall stock market lethargy.

May 20, 2011-Fri-Mediocre volume on mild bearishness is consistent with meandering stock market behavior.

May 19, 2011-Thu-Same as yesterday.

May 18, 2011-Wed-Mild volume on mild bullish offers nothing to upset status quo; that is bullish bias although with bearish spurt potential.

May 17, 2011-Tue-Volume was up slightly on mild bearish behavior. So far, this is configured consistent with bearish spurt potential as opposed to dynamic bearish sustainability.

May 16, 2011-Mon-Mild to aggressive bearish behavior on normal to light volume suggests that no more than a bearish spurt may be underway; certainly not a dynamic deep bear with expansive breadth.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 22-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 6.7% since their buy signals an average of 12.0-weeks ago. This annualizes at 29.4%.

The NTI is avoiding nine ETF’s. They are down by an average of 1.9% since their sell signals an average of 1.7-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 24.1% since their buy signals an average of 41.8-weeks ago. This annualizes at 30.0%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETF’s. They are down 10.9% since the QTI sell signals 5.6-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term Indicant signaled on May 16, 2011. It is up 1.9% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 38.2%, annualizing at 55.7% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal sell until interacting at QTI Yellow. The short-term attributes are increasingly bearish.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 82.9% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 33.5%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $130.42 and still rising. Relaxation is in order since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $147.49. Force is again increasing, which supports short-term bullishness.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 8.9% since then, annualizing at 35.3%.

Near-term attributes for the next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure. Threatening is price below NTI Blue, but Pressure remains positive.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal on May 17, 2011 from the Near-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant. Force started rising in bullish domains. It is pretty hot, but the next sell signal will not occur until price falls below NTI Blue.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell Apr 20, 2011 for ETF#31-QID. It is flat since that sell signal.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Apr 1, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. The Short-term Indicant may discontinue tracking this ETN due to poor quality practices by its managers. It is down 21.8% since the sell signals.

Major ETF Events

May 20, 2011-Fri-Bullish Forces weakened a bit more.

May 19, 2011-Thu-Force is having some difficulty in shifting into a robust improvement cycle.

May 18, 2011-Wed-Force reversed direction to the north today, supporting bullish bias.

May 17, 2011-Tue-No attributes offered resistance to bearish inclinations. More sell signals occurred today.

May 16, 2011-Mon-Several attributes discontinued support of the bull and thus four Near-term sell signals were generated.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- May 20, 2011. The stock market bull, along all three cycle types, remains in tact with a mild but increasing deterioration of the near-term cycle. Required unanimity among non-contrarian securities for bull and bear are absent. Do not be surprised at meandering stock market behavior during summertime. If volume remains depressed, expect more volatility.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market endured bearish divergence last week, following a mixed week with miniscule divergence or convergence. This is consistent with meandering stock market behavior.

Economic fundamentals continue improving, but international political conflicts continue pestering. The Japanese crisis remains discerning, but not completely configurable. U.S. political stalemating is always bullish. Hopefully, political discourse will accelerate.

The overall stock market has enjoyed bullish convergence in eight of the past fifteen weeks. The stock market did not deliver the desired four consecutive weeks in this recent cycle. In spite of less than desired bullish attributes, there is little reason to fear a dynamic and aggressive bear at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The presidential pre-election year stock market bull remains in tact and in full conformance to historical standards. There is no technical support for stock market bearish behavior even though short-term attributes are a bit threatening to do so. Force Vectors did not continue aggressively to the north last week, which is a bit disappointing for those desiring a stock market bull.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions have yet to produce significant increases in volume. Volume increases were detected ten weeks ago that correlated with bearish behavior. Even with those increases, though, that volume behavior was not dynamic. Volume continues with lethargic configurations. With that, there is no volume support for bull or bear. When that happens, the prevailing bias is maintained and that remains bullish.

As stated the past 85-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle. International tensions, however, are adding a mild threat to bullish commentary, but interpretations of bullish support also make sense. In other words, do not be surprised at several weeks of meandering stock market behavior.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation is an accurate descriptor of the current economy. The stock market has apparently taken the Japanese nuclear crisis and Middle Eastern unrest in stride. That bodes well for the stock market bull.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

05/22/2011

May 15, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 05, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Oiling Jay Rockefeller

The stock market endured strong bearish behavior last Wednesday and Friday. Although not exacting in correlation along the timeline of congressional events last week, rest assured much of that bearishness of congressional stupidity was causative. Congress attacked one of the three wealth building pillars; extraction.

Politicians showboat more than most professions. They spend a good deal of their livelihoods learning all aspects of showboating. Their grandstanding must work, as many continue to be re-elected in spite of their ridiculously sickening behavior and commentary.

Congress grilled oil company executives last week with the lone purpose of showing their constituents their heroic actions in the face of four-dollar gasoline. Of course, those with heightened consciousness see through the showboating and recognize congressional actions and commentary is anti-heroic. Unfortunately, that showboating tricks those, inflicted with bicameralism.

For example, show boater, Senator Jay Rockerfeller said, “…oil companies are deeply and profoundly committed to sharing nothing.” Interestingly, that hypocrite has enjoyed a life of luxury directly because of John D. Rockefeller’s founding of Standard Oil Company over 100-years ago.  

Senator Jay Rockefeller’s luxurious lifestyle is a direct result of oil company profits. You would have never heard of Jay Rockefeller if his great grandfather, John D. Rockefeller, had been an autoworker in the UAW or drank beer with longshoremen, as opposed to founding one of the greatest companies in U.S. history.

At some point, society and culture will elevate consciousness by several orders with the following on-going manifesto to all politicians. It will be like this from a more advanced voting public:

“To Jay Rockefeller; we will not vote for you in the next senatorial election in West Virginia. We will free you from your senatorial responsibilities so that you can go start an oil company and sell us gasoline at a much lower price than four-dollars a gallon.”

“Better yet, please retire from the senate now. Start that Oil Company now, just as your great grandfather did over 100-years ago. Explore, drill, refine, process, and deliver gasoline to your retail pumps. We will be happy to pay, say $1.25, per gallon. Good luck, but we the voters, will not buy any common or preferred shares of stock in your start up company, since we are intelligent enough to know that you will lose money at worst and at best not accrue enough earnings for future exploration, drilling, refining, processing, and deliver during the down years.”

“But, in the meantime, we look forward to buying your cheaper gasoline as long as you can last before you going out of business.”

“In closing, if you have any money leftover after your start up costs and operational setup, please send the balance of your net worth to all your voting constituents so that the net effect of their gasoline purchases amounts to less than four-dollars per gallon until you can deliver cheaper gasoline. This should be a relatively mild and easy task for you, since you have pointed out that sharing must be a good thing after you chastised oil companies for not sharing. We look forward to your demonstrated leadership in sharing.”

“PS, please make certain that you retain no earnings or net worth for your offspring so they will become productive members of society, as opposed to what you became, living off ancestral greatness. After all, retaining ancestral wealth is not sharing. We anxiously await you sharing your wealth even if it was unearned.”

If society and culture do not mature their consciousness enough to see through the showboating, rest assured the bear will rejoice and in more ways than one. Geese, we live in an upside down world. It is sad the majority of voters are still limited with bicameral tendencies.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

The only NAS100 double-digit change this past week was N100#100-Yahoo. It was down 11.3%. It is down 84.7% since its all time high of $108.17. You will notice it has been enduring a five-year negative bullish and bearish trend. However, it has been moving with mild bullishness since early 2009. Although Yahoo is a great company, providing valuable services, it is not among real wealth creating organizations. It does not manufacture, raise crops, or extract resources. A good company, though.

ISTK#06-LVLT-was up 14.5% last week. Warren Buffet at one time owned it, but for a very short period. So far this century, this stock has been enduring a bearish trend. It is down 36.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 26, 2008. It is down 98.5% since its all time high of $130.19. It closed last Fri at $1.89.

All Dow30 stocks traded in a range between +2.6% and -4.2% last week. There were no double-digit changes.

The Dow Utilities were equally unimpressive. They closed from the prior week from a gain of 4.7% to a loss of 3.8%.

Of the 100-mutual funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant, the largest gainer posted a 2.9% increase and the biggest loser was down by 3.4%.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 300 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 55.1%. That annualizes to 45.1%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 300-stocks and funds for an average of 63.6-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 35-stocks and funds of 340-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 46.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 108.3-weeks ago.

One year ago, on May 14, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 221-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 45.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 31.1% (annualized at 35.6%). There were 93-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 36.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 87.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 21-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on May 15, 2009. They were up by an average of 112.5% (annualized at 60.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 97.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 323-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 32.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 49.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear was beginning to lose its dominance on this weekend in 2009, while the Mid-term Indicant remained more conservative before signaling buy.

There were 210-stocks and funds with hold signals on May 9, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 125.0-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 145.1% (annualized at 60.3%). There were 132-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 16.6% from their respective sell signals an average of 28.6-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals on this weekend in 2008. There were three sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 247-sell signals in the prior 26-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the avoided stocks from late 2007 and early 2008 Mid-term Indicant sell signals remained with avoid signals during that “bullish spurt.”

On May 11, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 312-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 121.6% (annualized at 64.0%) since their buy signals an average of 98.8-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 31-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 13.7% since their sell signals an average of 25.3-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2007.

Five years ago, on May 12, 2006, there were 253-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 121.6% (annualized at 64.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 96.0-weeks earlier. There were 71-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 7.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 18.5-weeks earlier. There no buy signals and 21-sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

On May 13, 2005, there were 201-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 93.9%, annualizing at 54.5%, since their respective buy signals an average of 89.6-weeks earlier. There were 117-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 28.0% since their sell signals an average of 54.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 218-stocks and funds with hold signals on May 14, 2004. They were up by an average of 75.4%, annualizing at 68.5%, since their buy signals 57.2-weeks earlier. The 73-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 10.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 11.3-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2004 in addition to 49-sell signals in the prior two weeks. The meandering bear market was well underway at this time of year in 2004.

On May 16, 2003, there were 275-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 36.3% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 16.8-weeks earlier. That annualized at 111.9%. There were only eight avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 26.0% since their sell signals an average of 26.4-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were 11-buy signals in addition to 184-buy signals in the prior eight weeks. There were two sell signals on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was twelve weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Most short-term attributes continue supporting the stock market bull. Force Vectors shifted back to the north this past week, but confronted with stock market bearishness. Regardless, though, Force Vectors continue favoring the stock market bull. If they shift back to the south, the stock market bear will be encouraged.

In spite of short-term concerns, the Mid-term Indicant attributes supporting the stock market bull remain strong.

The mid-term election year of 2010 behaved classically pivoting in support of the normally bullish pre-election year (2011). This behavior correlated well with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemate. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish. Mid-eastern unrest will resume its threat to the stock market bull, as a function of speculation of those empty souls who are attempting to gain control of petro flow into the capital markets. The problem with economic leeches and tyrants is their limited ability to see the big picture. In the end, their methods result in devolved processes. Their egos blind them of the fact they will also fall prey to their shenanigans.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest, but they should be tight. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 72.9% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 153.9% and the S&P500 is up 72.2% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 161.9% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011.

The NASDAQ is down 44.0% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 12.4% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 7.4% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 14.7% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. Interestingly, the NASDAQ was explosively bullish on this week in 2001 in addition to the prior week.

The NASDAQ was down by 15.3% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 15.3%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 3.9% and finishing up for that year by 1.4%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was down 9.1% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 1.7% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 6.1% at this time in 2007, finishing up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 5.9% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 5.5% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 5.5% on this weekend last year, mirroring 2009-YTD. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 11.1% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 1.1% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 14.5% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The S&P600-small cap index is up by 0.4% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Interestingly, the NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is now up by 6.3% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400 is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that is also above pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 7.3% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. As earlier stated, the S&P600 joined ranks of this sort of bullish behavior in late March, but has succumbed to bearish ambition. It is again up by 0.4% since its July 19, 2007 weekly closing peak, but struggling to hold there. The NASDAQ jumped above its Oct 31, 2007 peak on Apr 29, 2011, but expressed discomfort in doing so. It is down 1.1% from that 2007 weekly closing peak.

The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 18.6% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks from 2007 and 2000. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow30 and Dow Composite remain joined with the weak S&P100 Index. Those dilettante infested companies may participate more strongly with the stock market bull in spite of that infestation.

Most major indices last cyclical bottom occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 92.4% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 123.0% and the S&P500 is up 97.7% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 145.9% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Of course, such bearishness will eventually occur, but the Mid-term Indicant finds no evidence of that on the immediate horizon.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the shorter near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull. Middle Eastern unrest remains threatening to the stock market bull, depending though on the nature of that unrest. If oil prices skyrocket, the bear will be delighted. If democracy expands in that region, the bull will be delighted. Current parameters suggest stock market bearishness in the event of maximal threats to the Saudi Kingdom, which is a stabilizing force in that region.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As promised by Bernanke, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. It endured significant bearishness 12-weeks ago and holding there after a bit of mild volatility. Bernanke, apparently, remains concerned with the economic outlook but carelessly ignoring inflationary pressures in the U.S. That carelessness will eventually shift to cognizance and with that the great bear market will resume. The 2012 forecasted values do not yet indicate any significant increases. Keep in mind these forecasts are purely statistical, but qualitative inquiries are not suggesting different projections at this time.

The 6-month CD yield increased significantly 24-weeks ago, suggesting desired longer-term upward pressures by the banks. Since then it has settled back down. It remains depressed and had been flat to even more bearish since then. It fell 10-basis points 12-weeks ago, another five points seven weeks ago, and another five basis points two weeks ago. In essence, a level of stability has been found with mild yield bearishness after wild variations in such a minor investment vehicle.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 17-weeks ago, falling sharply the past few days. Its bullish Red Curve continues rising, joining the Bearish Yellow Curve’s rise. The European rate hike six weeks ago contributed to Euro strengthening.

The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen while the Japanese Yen continues to weaken. Japan will require significant debt financing for rebuilding infrastructure. The Canadians will continue to enjoy their exports of commodities and raw materials.

Overall, the US dollar is weakening, avoiding the prior threat of strengthening. Inflationary pressures are now starting to mount.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to be challenged, based on political dynamics. However, statistical bullishness remains in tact. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable, but enjoying steady increases the past several weeks. Middle Eastern unrest is adding a bit of pizzazz to those increases.

As stated by the Indicant for several months, it is priced where the Kingdom finds comfort at around $80/bbl, albeit departing on the high end of his desired tolerance levels the past several months due, mainly, to instability in the Middle East. It has been nudging a bit higher than that for the past several weeks, but bearish the past several days. It achieved Red Bull status several weeks ago for the first time since 2007. The high-end forecast continues to project $120/bbl by 2012. The Saudi Kingdom will have to approve that, though. Middle Eastern unrest offer additional pizzazz to its recent bullishness.

Commodity prices continue with dynamic bullish aggression. Most have fallen of their recent record highs. That appears to be simple profit taking following sharp increases over several months. The tsunami effect on their bearishness a few weeks ago expired and replaced with normal greed-profit taking cycles. Significant bullish behavior continues along the mid-term to long-term cycle. They are not yet contributory to inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are enjoying Red Bull status.  This remains economically bullish.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures continues its shift from waffling to significant and dynamic bullish aggression. It is also a solid Red Bull and economically bullish albeit with long-term inflationary threats. After nearly a century, Reuters UK commodity tracking is not readily available.

Commodity prices, overall, were bearish the past two weeks; some of which appears to be mere profit taking. Do not be surprised at a bullish surge when they interact with the bullish Red Curve.

Mortgage rates remain configured with countering the prevailing bearish trend. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. They are, however, bouncing around their respective bullish red curves, but have not influenced a directional shift in trend or cycle.  Therefore, the underlying mid-term bearish cycle remains unthreatened.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable. That should change in the next few months. The CPI announcement on Friday, May 13, 2011 generated a bearish effect on the stock market.

Overall, hard economic data continues with stability, although cyclically increasing with recent profit-taking bearishness. That is economically non-bearish, but lending support to longer-term inflationary potential. Rising productivity from increased interests in capitalism around the world could significantly dampen inflationary threats. That, coupled with U.S. political dynamics of potential massive sovereign debt reductions, suggests dynamic bullishness. Contrarian behavior, though, will indeed inspire the stock market bear ahead of depressing economic conditions.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 11.9%, annualizing at 18.4% since then. As stated three weeks ago, the Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold. That holds true in spite of bearish behavior the last two weeks.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 10.7% since then, annualizing at 6.3%. It was also solidly bearish the past two weeks.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 24.9%, annualized at 37.6% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 41.5%, annualized at 62.7%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 23.7% since then, annualizing at 39.3%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 38.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 58.9%.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 36.7% since then, annualizing at 55.0%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 80.6% since that buy signal, annualizing at 32.8%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It is up 7.5%, annualizing at 32.3%, since its most recent Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All the major indices are up by an average of 31.1% since their bull signals an average of 57.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 28.1%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $33,034,082. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,916,286 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $158,098. That beats buy and hold’s $131,038 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $241,934. That beats buy and hold’s $98,075 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 77.2% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal. It is no longer getting close to a buy signal, as it appears to have succumbed to the stock market bull for the time being. It may not receive a buy signal until 2013, which is the next post election year.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 335.1% (annualized at 17.1%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,019-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Force Vectors continue moving to the north. This is solidly non-bearish and mostly bullish. A strong bullish cycle will facilitate a continuation of the stock market bull. Last Wednesday’s and Friday’s strong bearish behavior did little to disrupt prior two sentences. If Force shifts back to south, though, the Near-term bearish cycle will gain traction.

Bearish unanimity is required for strong bearish cycles. The Dow Utilities is not participating with recent bearish inclinations. ETF#10-IBB-Biotech is behaving as if a new bear is impossible. Strong bears require unanimous support across all sectors, other than energy and commodities. Interestingly, ETF#03-XLE-Energy is indeed under bearish attack along the near-term cycle. Pressure remains positive and thus preventing NTI sell signal. If all ETF’s were similarly configured, the stock market bear would be inspired.

The bear seeks unanimity to support its ambition. So far, it is falling short in that endeavor.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull of all eleven major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 1.0% since their respective bull signals on Apr 1, 2011. This is annualizing at 8.3%. The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for contrarian VIX. It is down 1.9% since the bear signal on April 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant is also signaling bear of contrarian VIX. It is down 1.9% since the bear signal on Apr 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for the eleven major non-contrarian indices for an average of 31.8-weeks. They are up by an average of 19.9% since their bull signals, annualizing at 32.6%.

Short-term Market Summary

Ten non-contrarian Red Bull configurations remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. One was lost this Friday. There is only one non-contrarian NTI Blue Bull. That offers very limited bullish support along the near-term cycle.

Most Force Vectors are moving north and are behaving consistent with bullish expectations. The Dow Utilities is expressing very strong bullish configurations, while the perennially lagging S&P100 remains a bit shaky.

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. It fell back into low activity a few weeks later. It continues moving lethargically. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains, while mildly increasing there. Unless these configurations shift back to robust configurations, do not be surprised at overall stock market lethargy.

May 13, 2011-Fri-Light volume on bearish aggression is consistent with bearish spurt configurations, as opposed to dynamic bearish behavior.

May 12, 2011-Thu-Again, mild volume on mild bullishness tends to perpetuate status quo; that is near-term bullish bias.

May 11, 2011-Wed-Light to normal volume on bearish aggression does not offer the bear enough inspiration to continue.

May 10, 2011-Tue-Mild volume on mild bullishness offers no arguments to prevailing near-term bullish bias.

May 9, 2011-Mon-Light volume on mild bullishness says nothing. Bullish bias prevails, albeit without much pizzazz.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 5.7% since their buy signals an average of 10.8-weeks ago. This annualizes at 27.4%.

The NTI is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down by an average of 4.9% since their sell signals an average of 4.8-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signal and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up 24.4% since their buy signals an average of 40.8-weeks ago. This annualizes at 31.1%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down 5.1% since the QTI sell signals 4.9-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 36.7%, annualizing at 55.0% since then. This ETF lost Red Bull status last Wednesday. Force fell into bearish domains six trading days ago, but Pressure remains positive. However, falling below NTI Green is discerning. Configurations are threatening the hold signal. Reason for not selling is positive Vector Pressure and a rising Force Vector.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 80.6% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 32.8%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $129.76 and still rising. Relaxation is in order since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $145.63. Force is again increasing, which support short-term bullishness.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 7.5% since then, annualizing at 32.3%.

Near-term attributes for the next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure. Threatening is price below NTI Blue, but Pressure remains positive.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a sell signal on Fri Apr 8, 2011 by the Near-term Indicant. It is up 6.2% since that sell signal. Vector Pressure is no longer in bearish domains, threatening the avoid signal. Force is moving south, adding a bit to anticipated bearish behavior. There is correcting, as expected. Once the Force cycle matures in a few days, obviations of directional intensity will occur. It was appropriately down in four of the past six trading days.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear on Apr 8, 2011. It is up 5.5% since that sell signal.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell Apr 20, 2011 for ETF#31-QID. It is down 2.1% since that sell signal.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Apr 1, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. The Short-term Indicant may discontinue tracking this ETN due to poor quality practices by its managers. It is down 18.8% since the sell signals.

Major ETF Events

May 13, 2011-Fri-None

May 12, 2011-Thu-None

May 11, 2011-Wed-Bearish behavior correlated with the U.S. greenback strengthening. That suggests deflationary concerns., which is a bit nonsensical at this point.

May 10, 2011-Tue-Force is gaining strength, offering near-term bullish support.

May 9, 2011-Mon-Force Vectors are at cyclical bottom with some reversing into a bullish cycle. This cycle will be interesting. A strong bullish cycle will enhance stock market bull’s position.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- May 13, 2011. The stock market bull, along all three cycle types, remains in tact with a mild deterioration of the near-term cycle. Force Vectors are again positioning in favor of the stock market bull. The recent bearish spurt lacked unanimity among non-contrarian securities.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market was mixed last week. Detectable convergence or divergence was absent. Bullish and bearish behavior across all sectors was offsetting and mostly miniscule.

Economic fundamentals continue improving, but international political conflicts continue pestering. The Japanese crisis remains discerning, but not completely configurable. U.S. political stalemating is always bullish. Hopefully, political discourse will accelerate.

The overall stock market has enjoyed bullish convergence in eight of the past fourteen weeks. The stock market did not deliver the desired four consecutive weeks in this recent cycle. In spite of less than desired bullish attributes, there is little reason to fear a dynamic and aggressive bear at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The presidential pre-election year stock market bull remains in tact and in full conformance to historical standards. There is no technical support for stock market bearish behavior even though short-term attributes are a bit threatening to do so. Force Vectors reversed their bearish cycle last week. The question is, will they continue increasing? If not, the bear will find some inspiration.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions have yet to produce significant increases in volume. Volume increases were detected nine weeks ago that correlated with bearish behavior. Even with those increases, though, that volume behavior was not dynamic. Volume continues with lethargic configurations. With that, there is no volume support for bull or bear. When that happens, the prevailing bias is maintained and that remains bullish.

As stated the past 84-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle. International tensions, however, are adding a mild threat to bullish commentary, but interpretations of bullish support also make sense.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation is an accurate descriptor of the current economy. The stock market has apparently taken the Japanese nuclear crisis and Middle Eastern unrest in stride. That bodes well for the stock market bull.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

05/15/2011

May 8, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 05, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Tiny Bubbles

One can offer an argument that the most legitimate and appealing description of bubbles the past fifty years is in Don Ho’s famous lyrics, “tiny bubbles in Hawaii….” That song offers a somewhat relaxing tone to the listener, according to many music-minded people. Musical artists enjoy invoking emotional appeal to their listeners.

Hype marketing, on the other hand, prefers invoking paranoia to listeners, including economic pundits’ near constant proclamations of varying economic bubbles. Of course, they never include tiny in front of the word, bubble. They tend to promulgate that is gargantuan.

Massive governmental spending reduction is one of those soothing bubbles to watch pop. Unfortunately, that soothing appeal may be held by a minority of people. The masses of humanity are incapable of recognizing that would be to their best interest. It remains unknown if these masses are a majority or a minority. Riots in Greece last year suggest a majority of Greeks do not desire reductions in government.

The problem with those proclamations of popping governmental spending bubbles is the low probability of its manifestation. OPM (other people’s money) disease may only be curable with a total collapse of all paper currencies. The cure may require total cleansing and of course, that would invoke social and economic chaos. Unfortunately, there is no universal law preventing chaos in any form. On the contrary, chaos is more common than not.

Following the housing bubble that most did not predict, pundits have been pointing to most things bullish and proclaiming their bubbles are about to pop. Constantly bombarding your consciousness by this and that bubble is pervasive if you are an avid reader of current events. Most pundits do this just to get attention; one of those, “hey, look at me” sort of things.

Last week’s bearishness in commodities invoked claims of a commodity bubble. Gold, of course, is the most hyped commodity about to endure a busted bubble. That is easy to do because there is no real way to assess its value other than the price paid on the last purchase. So, it is difficult to objectively attack those pundits claiming the gold bubble is about to burst. The attacker would be considered just as crazy as the pundit offering the claim that the gold bubble is about to burst. Projecting human emotion, which is one main contributor to the value of gold, is a very egotistical undertaking for those who are actually sane.

Astrophysicists tell us gold arrived to earth from space a long time ago, as it could not have formed on earth. Gold has very little practical value other than several thousand years of holding value, while all manmade paper and coined currencies have endured a history of relatively short-lives. So far, gold has outlived all manmade currencies as a recognized liquid asset. It is certainly easier to sell gold than your house.

Some argue that gold is pretty to look at. However, it is not nearly as pretty as a shiny iron sword to others. One with evil intent, holding the shiny iron sword, can easily take from the one holding only a gold bar. With that in mind, the shiny sword’s value is the labor and iron costs of the sword, plus the newly acquired gold. That is why gold’s value is purely mystical, whereas the shiny sword’s value anything but mystical.

In a civilized society, which remains somewhat elusive around the globe, gold tends to price at current and projected reciprocal values to paper and coined currencies. The weaker the value of paper, the higher the price of gold is. There is no scientific or economic justification for this phenomenon. However, there is a long history of this relationship between gold and manmade currencies.

The extraction of gold from the earth’s crust consumes significantly more energy than printing or coining currencies. That dampens the supply of gold. The efficiency of the printing presses facilitates a near unlimited supply of paper currencies. The relative differentials between the supply and demand of both gold and manmade currencies produces a value of both. Since the value of any metallic object is higher than the value of paper or cheap coining materials, the object of interest is always the higher valued object.

If the world’s population continues demanding more freedom, commodities cannot endure a bubble, as long as the population of a rational order continues to increase. Increased population of an irrational order is certainly not predictable for anything. It does not take much imagination to analogize a culture similar to wild orangutans foraging for leaves on trees with an irrational population in the majority.

The simplest expressions in supply and demand ratios inarguable point to rising prices with increasing populations of free and rational people. If governmental and religious leaders around the world depress individual freedom, of course the so-called commodities bubble would burst. In essence, irrationality would rule.

Those bounded by Islamic law appear to be protesting either their religious leadership or the dictators that evolved in those countries in favor of greater individual freedom. The question is, will that freedom be coupled to rationality? The communistic leaders with each passing day approach their beheading. That will require a shiny sword; not a bar of gold. If these trends persist, commodity prices will skyrocket. The informed understand this is as good inflation. With that, gold prices may not increase even if it is conveniently fitted into the commodity group. Iron, of course, would skyrocket as the rational understand the need to protect themselves from the irrational via the possession of a shiny sword.

Bad inflation is when the capacity of producing objects of value wane, while those desiring those objects increase. That occurred in the 1970’s when nearly one-half of the world’s population pinnacled under communist rule and western taxation exceeded 50%. In other words, the wrong folks were handling the money and control of goods and services. Gold always skyrockets when irrationally founded inflation manifests.

Unfortunately, all bubbles eventually burst. Predicting beforehand, though, is a waste of time. There is always plenty of time to take profits when obviations of directional intensity confirm the bursting of whatever bubble exists.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

NAS100#46-DISH was the only NASDAQ100 double-digit gainer last week. It was up 16.7% this past week on an otherwise bearish week. It is struggling to reverse four years of a bearish trend. It is up 40.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Nov 5, 2010.

The largest ISTK loser was #13-CMB. It was down 12.2% last week. As you can see, the hold signal violates “fighting trend” rules. It is down 89.1% since its all time high and down 7.2% since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal on Dec 10, 2010.

The Dow30 and Dow Utilities did not endure any significant wild swings last week.

The largest mutual fund loser last week was MF#28-FASGX. It was down 9.1%, reflecting gold’s bearish behavior this past week. This inconsistent fund, though, is enjoying a bullish trend. It is up 14.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 9, 2009.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and two sell signals.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 300 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 54.8%. That annualizes to 45.5%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 300-stocks and funds for an average of 62.6-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 33-stocks and funds of 340-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 47.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 111.0-weeks ago.

One year ago, on May 7, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 223-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 44.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 26.8% (annualized at 31.3%). There were 86-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 42.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 86.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and five sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 21-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on May 8, 2009. They were up by an average of 116.6% (annualized at 62.6%) since their respective buy signals an average of 96.8-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 323-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 29.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 48.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear was beginning to lose its dominance on this weekend in 2009, while the Mid-term Indicant remained more conservative before signaling buy.

There were 201-stocks and funds with hold signals on May 2, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 127.0-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 147.9% (annualized at 60.5%). There were 130-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 15.4% from their respective sell signals an average of 26.1-weeks earlier. There were 12-buy signals on this weekend in 2008. There were two sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 245-sell signals in the prior 25-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the avoided stocks from late 2007 and early 2008 Mid-term Indicant sell signals remained with avoid signals during that “bullish spurt.”

On May 4, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 308-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 122.4% (annualized at 64.6%) since their buy signals an average of 98.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 32-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 12.0% since their sell signals an average of 23.2-weeks earlier. There were four buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2007.

Five years ago, on May 5, 2006, there were 270-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 144.8% (annualized at 75.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of 99.7-weeks earlier. There were 67-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 5.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 18.6-weeks earlier. There four buy signals and four sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

On May 6, 2005, there were 201-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 98.0%, annualizing at 57.5%, since their respective buy signals an average of 88.7-weeks earlier. There were 117-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 27.9% since their sell signals an average of 53.7-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 219-stocks and funds with hold signals on May 7, 2004. They were up by an average of 76.9%, annualizing at 70.8%, since their buy signals 56.5-weeks earlier. The 57-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 12.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 15.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and 18-sell signals on this weekend in 2004 in addition to 31-sell signals in the prior week. The meandering bear market was well underway at this time of year in 2004.

On May 9, 2003, there were 266-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 32.0% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 16.4-weeks earlier. That annualized at 101.5%. There were 17-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 31.9% since their sell signals an average of 30.7-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds in 2002-late 2004. There were 11-buy signals in addition to 173-buy signals in the prior seven weeks. There was one sell signal on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was eleven weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Most short-term attributes continue supporting the stock market bull. Force Vectors are shifting south, but those pestering cycles are maturing. This coming week will again be interesting, as Force has succumbed somewhat to the gravitational pull from bearish domains last week. Of interest, will Force reverse direction this coming week.

In spite of short-term concerns, the Mid-term Indicant attributes supporting the stock market bull remain strong.

The mid-term election year of 2010 behaved classically pivoting in support of the normally bullish pre-election year (2011). This behavior correlated well with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemate. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish. Mid-eastern unrest will resume its threat to the stock market bull, as a function of speculation of those empty souls who are attempting to gain control of petro flow into the capital markets. The problem with economic leeches and tyrants is their limited ability to see the big picture. In the end, their methods result in devolved processes. Their egos blind them of the fact they will also fall prey to their shenanigans.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest, but they should be tight. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 73.5% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 153.8% and the S&P500 is up 72.5% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 160.1% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011. Much of that depends, however, on unrest in the Middle East, related oil prices, political mumbo-jumbo by U.S. politicians, and the Japanese crisis.

The NASDAQ is down 44.0% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 12.3% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 7.8% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 11.3% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. Interestingly, the NASDAQ was explosively bullish on this week in 2001 in addition to the prior week.

The NASDAQ was down by 19.1% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 14.1%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 3.3% and finishing up for that year by 1.4%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was down 9.6% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 6.2% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 6.5% at this time in 2007, finishing up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 6.4% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 11.5% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 2.2% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 10.8% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 1.1% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 14.4% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The S&P600-small cap index is down by 0.2% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Interestingly, the NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is now up by 6.4% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400 is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that is also above pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 6.8% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. As earlier stated, the S&P600 joined ranks of this sort of bullish behavior in late March, but has succumbed to bearish ambition. It is down 0.2% since its July 19, 2007 weekly closing peak. The NASDAQ jumped above its Oct 31, 2007 peak on Apr 29, 2011, but expressed discomfort in doing so. It is down 1.1% from that 2007 weekly closing peak.

The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 18.2% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks from 2007 and 2000. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow30 and Dow Composite remain joined with the weak S&P100 Index. Those dilettante infested companies may participate more strongly with the stock market bull in spite of that infestation.

Most major indices last cyclical bottom occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 93.0% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 122.9% and the S&P500 is up 98.1% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 144.3% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Of course, such bearishness will eventually occur, but the Mid-term Indicant finds no evidence of that on the immediate horizon.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the shorter near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull. Middle Eastern unrest, although, is a bit threatening to the stock market bull, depending though on the nature of that unrest. If oil prices skyrocket, the bear will be delighted. If democracy expands in that region, the bull will be delighted. Current parameters suggest stock market bearishness in the event of maximal threats to the Saudi Kingdom, which is a stabilizing force in that region. The Japanese nuclear crisis remains elusive, even though related Japanese ETF’s received Short-term Indicant sell signal eight weeks ago. Interestingly, all international related ETF’s received sell signals well ahead of the Japanese earthquake, tsunami, and consequential nuclear crisis. Since then, all internationally related ETF’s have received short-term buy signals. This is a testament to the bull’s resiliency to major threats.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As promised by Bernanke, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. It endured significant bearishness eleven weeks ago and holding there after a bit of mild volatility. Bernanke, apparently, remains concerned with the economic outlook but carelessly ignoring inflationary pressures in the U.S. The 2012 forecasted values do not yet indicate any significant increases. Keep in mind these forecasts are purely statistical, but qualitative inquiries are not suggesting different projections at this time.

The 6-month CD yield increased significantly 23-weeks ago, suggesting desired longer-term upward pressures by the banks. Since then it has settled back down. It remains depressed and had been flat since then. It fell 10-basis points eleven weeks ago, another five points six weeks ago, and another five basis points last week. In essence, a level of stability has been found with mild yield bearishness after wild variations in such a minor investment vehicle.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 15-weeks ago. It continues to rise. Its bullish Red Curve continues rising, joining the Bearish Yellow Curve’s rise. The European rate hike six weeks ago contributed to Euro strengthening.

The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen while the Japanese Yen continues to weaken. Japan will require significant debt financing for rebuilding infrastructure. The Canadians will continue to enjoy their exports of commodities and raw materials.

Overall, the US dollar is weakening, avoiding the prior threat of strengthening. Inflationary pressures are now starting to mount.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to be challenged, based on political dynamics. However, statistical bullishness remains in tact. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable, but enjoying steady increases the past several weeks. Middle Eastern unrest is adding a bit of pizzazz to those increases.

As stated by the Indicant for several months, it is priced where the Kingdom finds comfort at around $80/bbl, albeit departing on the high end of his desired tolerance levels the past several weeks due, mainly, to instability in the Middle East. It has been nudging a bit higher than that for the past several weeks. It achieved Red Bull status several weeks ago for the first time since 2007. The high-end forecast continues to project $120/bbl by 2012. The Saudi Kingdom will have to approve that, though. Middle Eastern unrest offer additional pizzazz to its recent bullishness.

Commodity prices continue with dynamic bullish aggression. Most are at record highs. The tsunami effect on their bearishness a few weeks ago has definitely expired. Significant bullish behavior continues along the mid-term to long-term cycle. They are not yet contributory to inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are enjoying Red Bull status.  This remains economically bullish.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, you will find the Reuter’s UK Commodities Index continues moving north since early 2009. It is a Red Bull. It continues to skyrocket, setting a new all time high during the week of November 8, 2010. It continued setting new highs until the past few weeks, but again rising. Some of the recent bearish behavior is attributable to the crisis in Japan, but just a small blip on the charts. Questionable economic projections and default threats from Portugal and others in Europe continue to pester. It remains economically bullish with inflationary considerations later. The CRB Bridge Futures continues its shift from waffling to significant and dynamic bullish aggression. It is also a solid Red Bull and economically bullish albeit with long-term inflationary threats.

Commodity prices, overall, were bearish this past week; some of which appears to be mere profit taking. Do not be surprised at a bullish surge when they interact with the bullish Red Curve.

Mortgage rates remain configured with countering the prevailing bearish trend. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. They are, however, bouncing around their respective bullish red curves, but have not influenced a directional shift in trend or cycle.  Therefore, the underlying mid-term bearish cycle remains unthreatened.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable. That should change in the next few months.

Overall, hard economic data continues with stability, although cyclically increasing. Recent softening appears to have expired. That is economically non-bearish, but lending support to longer-term inflationary potential. Rising productivity from increased interests in capitalism around the world could significantly dampen inflationary threats. That, coupled with U.S. political dynamics of potential massive sovereign debt reductions, suggests dynamic bullishness. 

At some point, the U.S. Congress will learn they have no influence on how China, India, and other countries manage their economies, which will eventually enjoy larger economies than the U.S. at some point. It is believed their younger generation is smarter and with significant better work ethics than in North America. Investing bias should be directed to the more productive as opposed to the U.S. Jerry Springer generation. If those rapidly developing economies retain a penchant for capitalism, rest assured prices for all commodities will escalate. However, rising productivity associated with capitalists could dampen the effects on consumers. These potential economic shifts are unparalleled in the annals of history.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 13.7%, annualizing at 21.4% since then. As stated two weeks ago, the Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold. That holds true in spite last week’s bearish behavior.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 14.6% since then, annualizing at 8.6%. It was also solidly bearish last week.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 27.2%, annualized at 42.5% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 42.2%, annualized at 65.7%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 26.7% since then, annualizing at 45.8%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 40.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 63.0%.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 38.5% since then, annualizing at 59.6%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 80.2% since that buy signal, annualizing at 32.9%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It is up 7.3%, annualizing at 34.1%, since its most recent Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All the major indices are up by an average of 31.2% since their bull signals an average of 56.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 28.7%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $33,146829. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,922,827 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $158,385. That beats buy and hold’s $131,267 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $241,856. That beats buy and hold’s $98.043 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 77.2% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal. It is no longer getting close to a buy signal, as it appears to have succumbed to the stock market bull for the time being. It may not receive a buy signal until 2013, which is the next post election year.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 336.6% (annualized at 17.2%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,018-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Force Vectors are nearing a cyclical bottom, which should suppress bearish ambition along the near-term cycle.

The bull still needs more bullish Pressure from ETF-EWJ#06-Japan. As you can see, its Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains. That is pestering the stock market bull. The question remains as valid, will Japan bring down the stock market bull? A new evolving question is, will the stock market bull lift Japan?

Adding some bearish support is weakening ETF#21-EWZ-Brazil. It has been meandering in a mild bearish configuration for several months. It fell below NTI Green yesterday. The stock market bear will be inspired along the near-term cycle if there is no bullish bounce off of that.

The stock market bear is having its way this week, but nowhere nearing domination. Too many attributes offering resistance to its domination.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull of all eleven major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 1.0% since their respective bull signals on Apr 1, 2011. This is annualizing at 10.9%. The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for contrarian VIX. It is up 5.7% since the bear signal on April 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant is also signaling bear of contrarian VIX. It is up 5.7% since the bear signal on Apr 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for the eleven major non-contrarian indices for an average of 30.8-weeks. They are up by an average of 20.1% since their bull signals, annualizing at 33.9%.

Short-term Market Summary

Eleven non-contrarian Red Bull configurations remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. Five non-contrarian NTI Blue Bulls offer support in spite of losing six last Wed-Thu. Interestingly, with mild threat to stock market bull, was the VIX’s status change to NTI Blue Bull.

Force remains in bullish domains for several indices, but several have fallen into bearish domains the past two days. However, enough Force Vectors remain in bullish domains to lend support to the bull. As stated last week, “the next obstacle to overcome on behalf of the bull is for it to reside there for several days. Not desired by the stock market bull is for Force to shift sharply back to the south.” It did the undesirable this past Thu-Fri for most of the indices. That bullish cycle, though, is maturing and thus added a depressant to the desired bearishness.

As stated this past Tuesday, “VIX’s Force Vector crossed above Vector Pressure and even penetrated bullish domains. Those two events depress bullish ambition a bit.”

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. It fell back into low activity a few weeks later. It continues moving lethargically. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains, while mildly increasing there. Unless these configurations shift back to robust configurations, do not be surprised at overall stock market lethargy.

May 6, 2011-Fri-Mild volume on mild stock market bullish behavior supports status quo; that is non-bearish even though a bearish spurt may be underway.

May 5, 2011-Thu-Volume was mild on bearish aggression, suggesting normal stock market correctional behavior. The NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator is rising a bit with generally bearish behavior. That is a bit bearish at this point.

May 4, 2011-Wed-NYSE volume was up a bit on mild bearishness, while NASDAQ relatively flat off of depressed normalcy. Although the bear is pestering, there is little support for dynamic behavior.

May 3, 2011-Tue-Slightly below recent normal volume on mixed stock market behavior is non-eventful and therefore retaining near-term bullish bias.

May 2, 2011-Mon-Light volume on mild bearishness supports status quo, which means the bear cannot mount a significant charge.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 6.2% since their buy signals an average of 10.1-weeks ago. This annualizes at 31.5%.

The NTI is avoiding four ETF’s. They are down by an average of 3.7% since their sell signals an average of 4.9-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up 25.6% since their buy signals an average of 41.3-weeks ago. This annualizes at 32.2%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding four ETF’s. They are down 1.6% since the QTI sell signals 4.8-weeks ago.

One of the avoided ETF’s is non-contrarian ETF-EWJ#06-Japan. It is up 4.7% since the QTI signaled sell on Mar 14, 2011, although down 4.1% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on March 10, 2011. Vector Pressure remains a bit too low for a buy signal, but getting close. If Force starts vacillating in bullish domains, a buy signal will be triggered. Force is declining. Vacillations there will justify a buy signal, as Pressure is increasing. Declining Force supports continued avoidance.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 38.5%, annualizing at 59.6% since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status and supportive of its bullishness. Force fell into bearish domains last Thu, but Pressure remains positive. However, falling below NTI Green last Thu is discerning.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 80.2% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 32.9%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $129.05 and still rising. There is no need for being patient here since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $145.30. It simply keeps moving north and with significant gusto two weeks ago in spite of bearish behavior in four of the past five days.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 7.3% since then, annualizing at 34.1%.

Near-term attributes for the next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure. Price fell below NTI Blue last Thu, but responded with a bit of bullish protests on Fri. Pressure remains positive, but Force fell below Pressure today.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a sell signal on Fri Apr 8, 2011 by the Near-term Indicant. It is up 6.2% since that sell signal. Vector Pressure is no longer in bearish domains. Force was shifting to the south. It moved north the past five days, upsetting a bearish prognosis. That cycle is at a maximum, adding increasing bearish probabilities in the next few days. There will be a correction to this fund in a few days and from there obviations of directional intensity will occur. It was appropriately down today.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear on Apr 8, 2011. It is up 5.5% since that sell signal.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell Apr 20, 2011 for ETF#31-QID. It is down 2.1% since that sell signal.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Apr 1, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. The Short-term Indicant may discontinue tracking this ETN due to poor quality practices by its managers. It is down 14.6% since the sell signals.

Major ETF Events

May 6, 2011-Fri-Force Vectors are configuring at a cyclical bottom, which should suppress bearish ambition along the near-term cycle.

May 5, 2011-Thu-Commodities, including gold, and energy took it on the chin today by their respective bears.

May 4, 2011-Wed-Several Force Vectors fell into bearish domains. Pressure remains in bullish domains. The threat is minimal, but a threat nonetheless.

May 3, 2011-Tue-Force moved a bit aggressively to the south, but not yet in bearish domains.

May 2, 2011-Mon-None

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- May 5, 2011. The stock market bull along all three cycle types remains in tact with a mild deterioration of the near-term cycle. The Near-term cycle is not behaving as desired by the bull. Force is not vacillating in bullish domains and thus uninspiring to the stock market bull. If they return to bearish domains, the stock market bear will find some solace, but not yet dominant. Some fell into bearish domains the past two days, but not enough to facilitate bearish dominance.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market was bearishly convergent last week following two weeks of bullish convergence. Bullish convergence is edging over bearish convergence in four of the past six weeks. That remains with bullish support.

Economic fundamentals continue improving, but international political conflicts continue pestering. The Japanese crisis is discerning, but not completely configurable. U.S. political stalemating is always bullish.

The overall stock market has enjoyed bullish convergence in eight of the past thirteen weeks. The stock market did not deliver the desired four consecutive weeks in this recent cycle. In spite of less than desired bullish attributes, there is little reason to fear a dynamic and aggressive bear at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The presidential pre-election year stock market bull remains in tact and in full conformance to historical standards. There is no technical support for stock market bearish behavior. This week will again be interesting. Will Force Vectors reverse their bearish cycle? Unfortunately, they did not vacillate in bullish domains last week, desired by the stock market bull.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions have yet to produce significant increases in volume. Volume increases were detected eight weeks ago that correlated with bearish behavior. Even with those increases, though, that volume behavior was not dynamic. Volume continues with lethargic configurations. With that, there is no volume support for bull or bear. When that happens, the prevailing bias is maintained and that remains bullish.

As stated the past 83-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle. International tensions, however, are adding a mild threat to bullish commentary, but interpretations of bullish support also make sense.

Political phenomena in the U.S., coupled with low interest rates, continue in support of the bull. The world’s third largest economy in Japan is adding a new twist. With that, though, one may accurately conclude crisis introduces opportunity. Related Japanese investments may indeed be bullish. Watch the daily stock market report next week for more information regarding that.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation is an accurate descriptor of the current economy. That, coupled with unrest in the Middle East and the Japanese nuclear crisis, could inspire the bear to gain traction. Keep in mind inflation is inevitable in the future unless Congress is successful in reducing trillions of dollars from the national debt. Recent political rhetoric is increasingly passive toward that amount. Executed passivity toward debt reductions will continue to feed inflationary potential. That is the hidden tax, imposed by those, who you elected as your representatives to the U.S. Congress and the executive branches of government.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

05/08/2011

May 1, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 05, Issue 01 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Gold and the Stock Market

Gold has historically been contrarian to the stock market behavior. However, since the 2003 initiation of a new bull market, gold prices and stock market bullish behavior has for the most part marched to the same drumbeat; albeit out of step from time to time. In essence gold’s behavior was not contrarian to stock market behavior since 2003. Last week, gold and the stock market bull marched to the same drumbeat. Both were strongly bullish which has occurred many times since 2003.

The contrarian element to gold with respect to stock market behavior has historically related to inflation or extraordinary fear. The stock market bull is typically butchered during inflationary periods, propelling bearish dominance, while gold gallops northward with bullish gusto. The math is pretty simple. During inflation, it simply takes more paper currency to purchase a constant amount of gold. Even with demand/supply equilibrium for gold, gold prices move bullishly during periods of strong inflation.

Pundits promoting gold like to point out that inflation is not an “if” question, but “when.” There are simply massive amounts of U.S. dollars circulating that have not been proportionally backed by real wealth creation. As stated many times in this report in the past, real wealth is created only from manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction. It is somewhat scary that not many people know that. Even more scary is the stock market bull since 2009 has not correlated well with real wealth creation. Keep in mind corporate profits at banks, insurance companies, and other service sectors not related to manufacturing, agriculture, or extraction do not create real economic wealth.

There is no argument here on the “if” question regarding inflation. It is mathematically impossible to avoid it with prevailing status quo of political behavior. It is not an economic problem or political problem. It is a simple mathematical problem. Maybe mathematical may be too strong a term. It is a simple problem in arithmetic. Unless the U.S. Congress shifts from normal Washington D.C. insanity, gold could continue to skyrocket if politicians do not retrieve trillions of U.S. dollars from circulating in the economy.

Another reason gold is skyrocketing is its simple paralleling behavior consistent with most other commodities. More of the world’s population is gravitating toward capitalistic endeavors; the wealth building type. They are manufacturing for the most part. That needs support from the other two wealth-building groups; agriculture and extraction. All of those require basic commodities. That is a simple example of pricing behavior when demand exceeds supply. That encourages inflation.

Capitalists have demonstrated a clear propensity to generate demand increases. Lagging supply to those increased demands results in demand/supply inflation. That also tends to promote additional supply sources. Capitalistic methods are very efficient in creating additional supply sources that eventually result demand/supply equilibrium and with that stable pricing.

Politicians do not create demand or supply. However, their policies can dampen both. Unfortunately, the demand for energy correlates with population growth. Western politicians passively attempt to dampen population growth with their promotions and funding of abortions. That is a slower process than practiced by Chinese politicians that impose limits to population growth. Nevertheless, politicians attempt to dampen population growth and with that demand for commodities and other resources are also dampened.

Likewise, but with more direct force, politicians have been successful in dampening the supply of energy with swirling thoughts in their three pound brains they are saving the earth from the harmful effects of capitalism. They do this even though their consumption of energy is profoundly higher than their production of energy. Their consumption/production ratio is infinite. Politician’s consumption of energy is vast. Their production of energy is zero. Dividing any number by zero is infinite. 

 Since politicians’ policies dampen production of energy, their contribution to the economic well being of all in terms of energy is minus infinity. In other words, they directly contribute to negative energy.

The solution to this massive problem is to minimize political influence on the natural flow of capitalistic demands and supplies. Gold is rising due to fear. That is because there is no real movement to minimize political influence. In essence, fear of political plundering of economic growth is influencing the rapidly rising prices of gold.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

None of the NAS100 stocks were excitingly bullish last week, but twelve of them are setting on new highs. That is bullish. Interestingly, the NASDAQ topped its 2007 cyclical peak this past week, but remains well below its all-time high.

ISTK#18-EK-Eastman Kodak fell 13.7% last week. This former Dow30 stock is a clear illustration of dilettante infested management for the past forty years. It is down 96.3% since its prior peak last century. ISTK#63-TLAB fell 10.4% last week. It is 93.6% below its prior peak.

All of the DJIA stocks ranged from a gain of 7.9% to a loss of 1.7%. The gainer was DJIA#26-INTC and the loser was DJIA#10-HD. Six Dow30 stocks are at all time highs, which supports bullish themes contained herein.

All of the Dow Utilities closed last week, ranging from a gain of 4.0% to a gain of 1.1%. There were no losers.

As usual, there were no wild swings in mutual funds.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.  

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 302 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 56.2%. That annualizes to 47.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 302-stocks and funds for an average of 61.4-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 33-stocks and funds of 340-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 47.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 110.0-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Apr 30, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 228-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 43.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 35.0% (annualized at 41.8%). There were 88-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 35.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 85.0-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for only 21-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on May 1, 2009. They were up by an average of 112.9% (annualized at 61.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 96.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 323-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 30.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 47.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear was beginning to lose its dominance on this weekend in 2009, while the Mid-term Indicant remained more conservative before signaling buy.

There were 201-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 25, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 125.7-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 129.9% (annualized at 53.8%). There were 140-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 15.1% from their respective sell signals an average of 26.1-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals on this weekend in 2008. There were two sell signals on this weekend in 2008 in addition to the 243-sell signals in the prior 24-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the avoided stocks from late 2007 and early 2008 Mid-term Indicant sell signals remained with avoid signals.

On Apr 27, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 296-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 124.7% (annualized at 64.8%) since their buy signals an average of 100.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 35-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 11.4% since their sell signals an average of 21.5-weeks earlier. There were 12-buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2007.

Five years ago, on Apr 28, 2006, there were 272-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 320 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 136.7% (annualized at 71.4%) since their respective buy signals an average of 99.5-weeks earlier. There were 69-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 5.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 18.9-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2006.

On Apr 29, 2005, there were 201-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 95.7%, annualizing at 56.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 87.7-weeks earlier. There were 115-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 29.3% since their sell signals an average of 52.9-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and four sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 265-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 30, 2004. They were up by an average of 72.1%, annualizing at 70.9%, since their buy signals 52.9-weeks earlier. The 28-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 27.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 39.5-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and 31-sell signals on this weekend in 2004.

On May 2, 2003, there were 255-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 31.4% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 16.0-weeks earlier. That annualized at 102.2%. There were 27-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 26.4% since their sell signals an average of 29.6-weeks earlier.  The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds in 2002-late 2004. There were 13-buy signals in addition to 160-buy signals in the prior six weeks. There was one sell signal on this weekend in 2003. The 2003 bull market was ten weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Click this link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Most short-term attributes continue supporting the stock market bull. Force Vectors shifted back to the north. This coming week will again be interesting, as Force remained in bullish domains last week. Of interest, will Force maintain bullish domain positions?

In spite of short-term concerns, the Mid-term Indicant attributes supporting the stock market bull remain strong.

The mid-term election year of 2010 behaved classically pivoting in support of the normally bullish pre-election year (2011). This behavior correlated well with political dynamics and was consistent with historical standards. The stock market remains configured for classical stock market bullishness during pre-election years, which should be enjoyed in 2011.

The current stock market bull originated in anticipation of political stalemate. That has been the historical standard and in this case, history repeats. Partisanship is expected to heighten and that remains in effect and therefore bullish. Mid-eastern unrest will resume its threat to the stock market bull, as a function of speculation of those empty souls who are attempting to gain control of petro flow into the capital markets. The problem with economic leeches and tyrants is their limited ability to see the big picture. In the end, their methods result in devolved processes. Their egos blind them of the fact they will also fall prey to their shenanigans.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest, but they should be tight. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 75.8% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 157.9% and the S&P500 is up 75.6% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 168.2% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months if the stock market moves bearishly by significant amounts. Such bearishness is unlikely based on current Mid-term Indicant configurations. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011. Much of that depends, however, on unrest in the Middle East, related oil prices, political mumbo-jumbo by U.S. politicians, and the Japanese crisis.

The NASDAQ is down 43.1% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 10.7% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is up by 9.3% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence.  If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 16.1% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. Interestingly, the NASDAQ was explosively bullish on this week in 2001 in addition to the prior week.

The NASDAQ was down by 15.0% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 10.2%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 2.2% and finishing up for that year by 1.4%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. 

It was down 11.7% on this weekend in 2005’s post election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 5.3% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 5.9% at this time in 2007, finishing up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 8.5% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 8.6% on this weekend in 2009. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 10.7% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 9.6% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 0.5% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 12.9% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The S&P600-small cap index is up 2.9% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

Interestingly, the NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago.  It is now up by 7.4% since its Oct 31, 2007 peak. The S&P400 is the other major index tracked by the Indicant that is also above pre-2008-crash levels. It is up by 9.6% since its prior peak on Jul 13, 2007. As earlier stated, the S&P600 joined ranks of this sort of bullish behavior in late March.

Also, joining the ranks of setting new highs was the NASDAQ this past week.

The remaining indices remain below their 2007 peaks. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 16.6% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. The current bull will remain suspicious, in character, until all these major indices cross above their prior peaks from 2007 and 2000. The Nov 14, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow30 and Dow Composite remain joined with the weak S&P100 Index. Those dilettante infested companies may participate more strongly with the stock market bull in spite of that infestation.

Most major indices last cyclical bottom occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.

The Dow is up 95.7% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 126.5% and the S&P500 is up 101.6% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 151.9% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-January 2010 bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Of course, such bearishness will eventually occur, but the Mid-term Indicant finds no evidence of that on the immediate horizon.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the 4-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull continues expressing its delight in that, which is supported by historical standards.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the shorter near-term cycle is not as supportive of the bull. Middle Eastern unrest, although, is a bit threatening to the stock market bull, depending though on the nature of that unrest. If oil prices skyrocket, the bear will be delighted. If democracy expands in that region, the bull will be delighted. Current parameters suggest stock market bearishness in the event of maximal threats to the Saudi Kingdom, which is a stabilizing force in that region. The Japanese nuclear crisis remains elusive, even though related Japanese ETF’s received Short-term Indicant sell signal seven weeks ago. Interestingly, all international related ETF’s received sell signals well ahead of the Japanese earthquake, tsunami, and consequential nuclear crisis. Since then, all internationally related ETF’s have received short-term buy signals. This is a testament to the bull’s resiliency to major threats.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets, both free and controlled are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As promised by Bernanke, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. It endured significant bearishness ten weeks ago and holding there after a bit of mild volatility. Bernanke, apparently, remains concerned with the economic outlook but carelessly ignoring inflationary pressures in the U.S. The 2012 forecasted values do not yet indicate any significant increases. Keep in mind these forecasts are purely statistical, but qualitative inquiries are not suggesting different projections at this time.

The 6-month CD yield increased significantly 22-weeks ago, suggesting desired longer-term upward pressures by the banks. Since then it has settled back down. It remains depressed and has been flat since then. It fell 10-basis points ten weeks ago and another five points five weeks ago. In essence, a level of stability has been found after wild variations in such a minor investment vehicle.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 14-weeks ago. It continues to rise. Its bullish Red Curve has now started to rise, joining the Bearish Yellow Curve’s rise. The European rate hike four weeks ago contributed to Euro strengthening.

The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen while the Japanese Yen continues to weaken. Japan will require significant debt financing for rebuilding infrastructure. The Canadians will continue to enjoy their exports of commodities and raw materials.

Overall, the US dollar is weakening, avoiding the prior threat of strengthening. Inflationary pressures are now starting to mount.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. The $2,000/oz-forecast by 2014 continues to be challenged, based on political dynamics. However, statistical bullishness remains in tact. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable, but enjoying steady increases the past several weeks. Middle Eastern unrest is adding a bit of pizzazz to those increases.

As stated by the Indicant for several months, it is priced where the Kingdom finds comfort at around $80/bbl, albeit departing on the high end of his desired tolerance levels the past several weeks due, mainly, to instability in the Middle East. It has been nudging a bit higher than that for the past several weeks. It achieved Red Bull status several weeks ago for the first time since 2007. The high-end forecast continues to project $120/bbl by 2012. The Saudi Kingdom will have to approve that, though. Middle Eastern unrest offer additional pizzazz to its recent bullishness.

Commodity prices continue with dynamic bullish aggression. Most are at record highs. The tsunami effect on their bearishness a few weeks ago has definitely expired. Significant bullish behavior continues along the mid-term to long-term cycle. They are not yet contributory to inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index and Spot Prices are enjoying Red Bull status.  This remains economically bullish.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, you will find the Reuter’s UK Commodities Index continues moving north since early 2009. It is a Red Bull. It continues to skyrocket, setting a new all time high during the week of November 8, 2010. It continued setting new highs until the past few weeks, but again rising. Some of the recent bearish behavior is attributable to the crisis in Japan, but just a small blip on the charts. Questionable economic projections and default threats from Portugal and others in Europe continue to pester. It remains economically bullish with inflationary considerations later. The CRB Bridge Futures continues its shift from waffling to significant and dynamic bullish aggression. It is also a solid Red Bull and economically bullish albeit with long-term inflationary threats.

This paragraph remains the same. Commodities, overall, discontinued behavior consistent with uncertainty in favor of outright bullishness several weeks ago. Recent bearish behavior has expired. “Extract baby extract” seems to be an evolving theme as more people around the planet are moving toward capitalistic progressions in spite of American waffling.

Mortgage rates remain configured with countering the prevailing bearish trend. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011 and retreated back down to economic neutrality. They are, however, bouncing around their respective bullish red curves, but have not influenced a directional shift in trend or cycle.  Therefore, the underlying mid-term bearish cycle remains unthreatened.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable. That should change in the next few months.

Overall, hard economic data continues with stability, although cyclically increasing. Recent softening appears to have expired. That is economically non-bearish, but lending support to longer-term inflationary potential. Rising productivity from increased interests in capitalism around the world could significantly dampen inflationary threats. That, coupled with U.S. political dynamics of potential massive sovereign debt reductions, suggests dynamic bullishness. 

At some point, the U.S. Congress will learn they have no influence on how China, India, and other countries manage their economies, which will eventually enjoy larger economies than the U.S. at some point. It is believed their younger generation is smarter and with significant better work ethics than in North America. Investing bias should be directed to the more productive as opposed to the U.S. Jerry Springer generation. If those rapidly developing economies retain a penchant for capitalism, rest assured prices for all commodities will escalate. However, rising productivity associated with capitalists could dampen the effects on consumers. These potential economic shifts are unparalleled in the annals of history.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 22.9%, annualizing at 36.9% since then. As stated last week, the Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 24.8% since then, annualizing at 14.8%. It was also solidly bullish last week.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 34.7%, annualized at 55.8% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 54.3%, annualized at 87.3%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 35.2% since then, annualizing at 62.3%.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 49.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 80.2%.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled, buy, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 49.1% since then, annualizing at 78.2%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 88.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 36.8%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%.  The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It is up 12.5%, annualizing at 64.4%, since its most recent Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

All the major indices are up by an average of 33.2% since their bull signals an average of 55.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 31.0%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $32,957,398. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,948,964 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $161,152. That beats buy and hold’s $133,569 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $245,789. That beats buy and hold’s $99,637 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1623.9%, 20.7%, and 146.7%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post election year, 2009. There will be another bear cycle at some future point. Boasting will be more available at that time.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short  on April 3, 2009. It is down 77.7% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal. It is no longer getting close to a buy signal, as it appears to have succumbed to the stock market bull for the time being. It may not receive a buy signal until 2013, which is the next post election year.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 342.6% (annualized at 17.5%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,017-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Force Vectors remain in bullish domains. The bull remains inspired as long as they do not shift back into bearish domains. Force is nearing cyclical peaks so next week will be interesting.

The bull still needs more bullish Pressure from ETF-EWJ#06-Japan. As you can see, its Vector Pressure remains in bearish domains. That is pestering the stock market bull, but losing its grip on that. The question remains as valid, will Japan bring down the stock market bull? A new evolving question is, will the stock market bull lift Japan? It was solidly bullish the past two days, lending support to a “yes” to the second question. Of interest is its Force Vector behavior early next week.

Stock market bullishness continues to impress with resiliency in the face of several worry points.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull of all eleven major non-contrarian indices. They are up by an average of 2.7% since their respective bull signals on Apr 1, 2011. This is annualizing at 34.6%. The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for contrarian VIX. It is down 15.2% since the bear signal on April 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant is also signaling bear of contrarian VIX. It is down 15.2% since the bear signal on Apr 1, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant has been signaling bull for the eleven major non-contrarian indices for an average of 29.8-weeks. They are up by an average of 22.0% since their bull signals, annualizing at 38.5%.

Short-term Market Summary

Eleven non-contrarian Red Bull configurations remain supportive of the Quick-term bull cycle. Eleven NTI Blue Bulls add bullish punch.

Force remains in bullish domains, offering bullish support. The next obstacle to overcome on behalf of the bull is for it to reside there for several days. Not desired by the stock market bull is for Force to shift sharply back to the south. So far, the stock market bull is delighted.

Indicant Volume Indicators  

The NASDAQ IVI crossed into high activity domains on Mar 21, 2011. It fell back into low activity a few weeks later. It continues moving lethargically. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator remains in low interest domains, while mildly increasing there. Unless these configurations shift back to robust configurations, do not be surprised at overall stock market lethargy.

Apr 29, 2011-Fri-Mild volume on mild bullishness is very pleasant. That enhances probability of bull’s longevity.

Apr 28, 2011-Thu-Mild volume on mild bullishness offers little argument to prevailing bullish bias.

Apr 27, 2011-Wed-Volume was up again on bullish behavior. That lends additional support to the Near-term bullish cycle.

Apr 26, 2011-Tue-Volume was up, relative to recent levels, on bullish aggression, which supports bullish bias.

Apr 25, 2011-Mon-Low volume on mild mixed stock market behavior is an esoteric event. Bullish bias prevails since volume is not arguing.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 8.7% since their buy signals an average of 9.1-weeks ago. This annualizes at 49.6%.

The NTI is avoiding four ETF’s. They are down by an average of 6.1% since their sell signals an average of 3.9-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up 28.6% since their buy signals an average of 40.3-weeks ago. This annualizes at 36.9%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETF’s. They are down 4.0% since the QTI sell signals 3.8-weeks ago.

One of the avoided ETF’s is non-contrarian ETF-EWJ#06-Japan. It is up 4.8% since the QTI signaled sell on Mar 14, 2011, although down 4.2% since the Near-term Indicant signaled sell on March 10, 2011. Vector Pressure remains a bit too low for a buy signal, but getting close. If Force starts vacillating in bullish domains, a buy signal will be triggered. It was solidly bullish the past two days and Force is near a max. Vacillations there will justify a buy signal, as Pressure is increasing.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources.  The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 15, 2010. It is up 49.1%, annualizing at 78.2% since then. This ETF remains with Red Bull status and supportive of its bullishness.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 88.9% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 36.8%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $128.37 and still rising. There is no need for being patient here since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $152.37. It simply keeps moving north and with significant gusto the past two days.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Feb 18, 2011. It is up 12.5% since then, annualizing at 64.4%.

Near-term attributes for the next sell signal will be price below NTI Blue with negative Vector Pressure. Price is above NTI Blue and Pressure remains positive.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a sell signal on Fri Apr 8, 2011 by the Near-term Indicant. It fell below NTI Green. It is up 4.5% since that sell signal. Vector Pressure is no longer in bearish domains, but Force is shifting to the south. As stated last Tue, put option opportunity is manifesting. It was down on Wed, but up the past two days. Put option opportunities remain in effect, but conservatively so.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear on Apr 8, 2011. It is up 3.7% since that sell signal.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell Apr 20, 2011 for ETF#31-QID. It is down 4.2% since that sell signal.

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Apr 1, 2011 for ETF#32-VXX. This ETN does not track well with VIX. The Short-term Indicant may discontinue tracking this ETN due to poor quality practices by its managers. It is down 20.4% since the sell signals.

Major ETF Events

Apr 29, 2011-Fri-None

Apr 28, 2011-Thu-None

Apr 27, 2011-Wed-Solid bullish action added traction to the near-term bull signal.

Apr 26, 2011-Tue-None

Apr 25, 2011-Mon-None

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Apr 29, 2011. The stock market bull along all three cycle types remains strong. The Near-term cycle will be tested early next week with Force Vectors maxing. Their vacillations in bullish domains will inspire the stock market bull. If they return to bearish domains, the stock market bear will find some solace, but not yet dominate.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection – This phenomenon will continue to be monitored, but its threat has subsided for the time being. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the major indices and ETF’s will eventually fall to those prices noted in the below link. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish of the four years. This phenomenon reduces the risks of bearish aggression in 2011.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market was bullishly convergent the past two weeks. That has occurred in four of the past five weeks. That remains with increasingly significant bullish support.

Economic fundamentals continue improving, but international political conflicts continue pestering. The Japanese crisis is discerning, but not completely configurable. U.S. political stalemating is always bullish.

The overall stock market has enjoyed bullish convergence in eight of the past twelve weeks. The stock market did not deliver the desired four consecutive weeks in this recent cycle. In spite of less than desired bullish attributes, there is little reason to fear a dynamic and aggressive bear at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The presidential pre-election year stock market bull remains in tact and in full conformance to historical standards. There is no technical support for stock market bearish behavior. This week will again be interesting. Will Force Vectors hold in bullish domains? Pressure is no longer falling, which had been a short-term bearish attribute. However, strong Force will help elevate Pressure, which was enjoyed last week. Force needs to simply vacillate in bullish domains to provide the stock market bull required encouragement.

The Indicant Volume Indicator remains depressed, as post holiday sessions have yet to produce significant increases in volume. Volume increases were detected seven weeks ago that correlated with bearish behavior. Even with those increases, though, that volume behavior was not dynamic. Volume has resumed pathetically lethargic configurations. With that, there is no volume support. Prior commentary suggested the stock market bull was nearing expiration. That prognosis is being withdrawn pending Force Vector behavior next week.

As stated the past 82-weeks, low interest rates impose narrowed alternative investment opportunities. That narrowed alternative suggests more demand for common stocks. Worldly events may be adjusting in support of the original premise; that is, where else can one put their money to work? The stock market, of course! The stock market bull continues expressing support for this principle. International tensions, however, are adding a mild threat to bullish commentary, but interpretations of bullish support also make sense.

Political phenomena in the U.S., coupled with low interest rates, continue in support of the bull. The world’s third largest economy in Japan is adding a new twist. With that, though, one may accurately conclude crisis introduces opportunity. Related Japanese investments may indeed be bullish. Watch the daily stock market report next week for more information regarding that.

Inflationary threats continue. Stagflation is an accurate descriptor of the current economy. That, coupled with unrest in the Middle East and the Japanese nuclear crisis, could inspire the bear to gain traction. Keep in mind inflation is inevitable in the future unless Congress is successful in reducing trillions of dollars from the national debt. Recent political rhetoric is increasingly passive toward that amount. Executed passivity toward debt reductions will continue to feed inflationary potential. That is the hidden tax, imposed by those, who you elected as your representatives to the U.S. Congress and the executive branches of government.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

05/01/2011

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