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November Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Updates

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This year's daily updates will be available here at month's end.

 

Nov 30, 2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 21 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Seven of thirty; bullish bias holding, near-term bearish pressure relaxing.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Seven of thirty. Attribute remains configured with non-bearish support.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Weak; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses. You saw that last week.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Weak, but improving with the bounce north off the lower trading range limit.

Force Vectors: Configurations continue supporting bullish bias, but very weak.

Vector Pressure: Five in bullish domains with minority support for bullish bias. This is not as strong as unanimous support and it no longer is configured with majority support. However, it is not yet supporting the bear.

Long-term Hold Positions: Improving relaxed attitude toward continued holding.

Immediate Tactics: Hold until sell signals. Buy on buy signals.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish, but significantly weakened.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakened.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write any covered options in this environment.

Volume: Configurations are now neutral.

 

Comment from September 17, 2007 Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….

 

Observation on September 18, 2007. The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not jittery behavior. It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!

 

October 19, 2007 Addendum. Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the face of the underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise if this bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest it is not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.

 

November 7, 2007 Addendum: The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting the upper trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the underlying bullish trend.

 

November 9, 2007 Addendum. Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the bullish trend has not been reversed.

 

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Dow is up 2.5% and the NASDAQ is up 1.3% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bear on November 9, 2007. The Short-term Indicant attributes remain insufficient for a bull signal. A Short-term Indicant bear signal suggests the bull is not positioning itself for dominance, regardless of the bull’s strong showing the past few days.

 

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

 

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  are now configuring lethargically. Some of this is due to light holiday volume at Thanksgiving. Some of it is due to less bullish volume the past few days when compared to aggressive bearish volume the past few weeks. In other words, recent bullish behavior is not supported by the Indicant Volume Indicator. That does not mean this bullish cycle will be short-lived. It does mean the probability of robust bullish behavior remains low and that the upper trading range limit will most likely not be eclipsed. Keep in mind this attribute can change, but that is the current reading. Finally, as stated the past few days, configurations support diminishing bearish tenacity, while not yet strongly configuring in favor of the bull.

 

Nov 12, 2007. The major indices are moving briskly toward the lower trading range limit. It is common for bull/bear battles to occur at the lower trading range limit. Watch this attribute. If the major indices fall below the lower trading range limit without a bullish response, the likelihood of sustainable bearish behavior will increase. Use the Quick-term Indicant exclusively for your recent buys/sells. Use the Consolidated model for your longer-term hold positions.

 

Nov 28, 2007. The major indices did not find comfort near the lower trading range limit, suggesting the bear is not in position to gain dominance over the stock market. The Dow is up over 500-points since it neared that lower trading range limit last Monday. In other words, the bullish trend remains in tact.

 

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 74.0% (annualized at 27.9%) since their respective buy signals an average of 136.5-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding seven ETF’s at this time. They are down an average of 0.8% since their sell signals an average of 4.0-weeks ago.

 

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

 

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals.  Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up an average of 90.4% (annualized 38.3%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 121.6-weeks ago.  Although there were no sell signals, there are five ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down an average of 2.2% since their sell signals an average of 4.3-weeks ago.

 

 

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

 

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 16-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 32.9% (annualized at 30.2%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 55.9-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding fourteen ETF’s. They are up by an average of 0.5% since their sell signals an average of 3.3-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

 

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are nine conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This harmonious relationship, although weakened with recent bearish expressions, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August 15, 2006.

 

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Seven of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by a healthier 6.2%. Although this attribute is providing non-bearish support, it is being threatened by the bear. That support remains minimal in spite of bullish behavior this past week. When the ETF’s average value is below bearish yellow, there will be no non-bearish support. Fortunately, its relative strength improved the past few days.

 

Seven of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 2.5% below their bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance.

 

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

 

One of the thirty ETF’s is contacting its breakout line. It is non-contrarian ETF#27 for the third consecutive day as of last Friday.

 

As stated the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in fifty-three of the last sixty-three trading days supports bullish bias. Non contact in eight of the last thirty trading days suggested the upper trading range limit successfully resisted bullish desires several weeks ago and again the past few weeks. The market may test that again over the next few days and weeks.

 

The average distance from breakout contact is 7.8%. This remains in support of the quick-term bullish bias. However, even with bullish aggression the past few days, the energy required for additional bullish breakout is increasing to the point of potential bullish lethargy.

 

None of the ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines.

 

The average distance from the price and breakdown is a more healthy 18.1%. This non-bearish attribute is weakening, but this configuration is still providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

 

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

 

Twenty-five Force Vectors are moving bullishly. As stated the past few days, impending bullish resistance to this bearish dominance is enhanced. Bullish aggression in two of the last four days supports this outlook, but configurations are not yet strongly bullish. All that has occurred is a neutralization of bearish aggression.

 

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

 

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

 

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no option signals after Friday’s close. That is two consecutive days of no option buy signals.

 

Only five ETF Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains. This is no longer providing near-unanimous  or majority bullish support. This is threatening to the underlying bullish theme even with bullish expressions the past two days.

 

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

 

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

 

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The shift from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15, 2006.

 

Message from Monday, September 17, 2007. The market is configuring nicely in support of the impending heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

 

Message from September 17, 2007. It is recommended to avoid writing covered call options due to increased probability of quick-term and short-term bullishness. Modified on September 24, 2007. Vector Pressure is again positive (bullish) and not configured favorably for writing covered call options. (Note: NYSE was up 7.3% from 09/17/07 through 10/31/07. The NASDAQ was up 10.7% from 09/17/07 through 10/31/07).

 

October 16, 2007 addendum: The market is nervous about inflationary pressures. This is a valid fundamental concern that can invite long-term bearishness. The stock market will not tolerate high rates of inflation; nor high interest rates.

 

October 17, 2007 addendum: You will notice the major indices are near their upper limit of the trading range. That does not mean bearish dominance is about to occur. If it does occur, your longer-term hold positions should be maintained until the major indices approach the lower limit of the trading range. Do not overreact to bearish threats; consider them as mere spurts in the face of the underlying bull.

 

November 7, 2007 addendum. The major indices again reacted bearishly with their recent interaction with the upper trading range limit. As long as this phenomenon occurs with the upper trading range limit, as opposed to the lower trading range limit, the trend remains bullish regardless of the displeasure one endures with these bearish spurts.

 

November 9, 2007 addendum. The underlying bullish bias is again being threatened by bearish aggression. Economic fundamentals are overpowering historical standards.

 

November 12, 2007 addendum. Increased market volatility is not favorable to writing options.

 

The Quick-term Bull remains in tact.

 

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is not avoiding QQQQ, which does not support holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.

 

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant began tracking ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It will not be included on overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets.

 

QID inclusion in overall ETF analysis will distort observations of market divergence and convergence due to the nature of its design. For example, precious metals and energy are contrarian but can parallel market direction with synergistic relationships.

 

QID will receive Quick-term and Short-term sell signals, but must mature more for independent near-term observations. This comment will be removed once that maturity is developed.

 

QID is down 47.0% since all three models signaled bear upon the initial offering of this ETF 72.1-weeks ago.

 

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

 

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

 

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

 

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

 

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

11/30/07

 

 

 

 

 

Nov 29, 2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 20 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Seven of thirty; bullish bias holding, near-term bearish pressure relaxing.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Eight of thirty. Attribute remains configured with non-bearish support.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Weak; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish response.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Weak, but improving with the bounce north off the lower trading range limit.

Force Vectors: Configurations continue supporting bullish bias, but very weak.

Vector Pressure: Five in bullish domains with minority support for bullish bias. This is not as strong as unanimous support and it no longer is configured with majority support. However, it is not yet supporting the bear.

Long-term Hold Positions: Improving relaxed attitude toward continued holding.

Immediate Tactics: Hold until sell signals. Buy on buy signals.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish, but significantly weakened.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakened.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write any covered options in this environment.

Volume: Configurations are now neutral.

 

Comment from September 17, 2007 Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….

 

Observation on September 18, 2007. The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not jittery behavior. It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!

 

October 19, 2007 Addendum. Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the face of the underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise if this bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest it is not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.

 

November 7, 2007 Addendum: The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting the upper trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the underlying bullish trend.

 

November 9, 2007 Addendum. Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the bullish trend has not been reversed.

 

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Dow is up 2.1% and the NASDAQ is up 1.5% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bear on November 9, 2007. The Short-term Indicant attributes remain insufficient for a bull signal. A Short-term Indicant bear signal suggests the bull is not positioning itself for dominance, regardless of the bull’s strong showing the past few days.

 

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

 

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  are not configured strongly due to light holiday volume. This has led to the early formation of a lethargic cycle. However, volume on recent aggressive bullishness has been healthy. This supports diminishing bearish tenacity, while not yet strongly configuring in favor of the bull.

 

Nov 12, 2007. The major indices are moving briskly toward the lower trading range limit. It is common for bull/bear battles to occur at the lower trading range limit. Watch this attribute. If the major indices fall below the lower trading range limit without a bullish response, the likelihood of sustainable bearish behavior will increase. Use the Quick-term Indicant exclusively for your recent buys/sells. Use the Consolidated model for your longer-term hold positions.

 

Nov 28, 2007. The major indices did not find comfort near the lower trading range limit, suggesting the bear is not in position to gain dominance over the stock market. The Dow is up over 500-points since it neared that lower trading range limit last Monday. In other words, the bullish trend remains in tact.

 

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 72.7% (annualized at 27.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 136.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding seven ETF’s at this time. They are down an average of 1.7% since their sell signals an average of 3.8-weeks ago.

 

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

 

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals.  Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up an average of 89.1% (annualized 37.7%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 121.4-weeks ago.  Although there were no sell signals, there are five ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down an average of 3.4% since their sell signals an average of 4.2-weeks ago.

 

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

 

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 14-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 32.3% (annualized at 29.8%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 55.8-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding fourteen ETF’s. They are down an average of 0.4% since their sell signals an average of 3.2-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

 

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are nine conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This harmonious relationship, although weakened with recent bearish expressions, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August 15, 2006.

 

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Eight of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by a slightly healthier 5.6%. Although this attribute is providing non-bearish support, it is being threatened by the bear. That support is now minimal. When the ETF’s average value is below bearish yellow, there will be no non-bearish support. Fortunately, its relative strength improved the past few days.

 

Seven of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.1% below their bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance.

 

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

 

One of the thirty ETF’s is contacting its breakout line. It is non-contrarian ETF#27 for the second consecutive day.

 

As stated the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in fifty-two of the last sixty-two trading days supports bullish bias. Non contact in eight of the last twenty-nine trading days suggested the upper trading range limit successfully resisted bullish desires several weeks ago and again the past few weeks. The market may test that again over the next few days and weeks.

 

The average distance from breakout contact is 8.3%. This remains in support of the quick-term bullish bias. However, even with bullish aggression the past few days, the energy required for additional bullish breakout is increasing to the point of potential bullish lethargy.

 

None of the ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines.

 

The average distance from the price and breakdown is a more healthy 17.5%. This non-bearish attribute is weakening, but this configuration is still providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

 

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

 

Twenty-five Force Vectors are moving bullishly. As stated the past few days, impending bullish resistance to this bearish dominance is enhanced. Bullish aggression in two of the last three days supports this outlook, but configurations are not yet strongly bullish. All that has occurred is a neutralization of bearish aggression.

 

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

 

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

 

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no option signals after Thursday’s close.

 

Only five ETF Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains. This is no longer providing near-unanimous  or majority bullish support. This is threatening to the underlying bullish theme even with bullish expressions the past two days.

 

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

 

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

 

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The shift from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15, 2006.

 

Message from Monday, September 17, 2007. The market is configuring nicely in support of the impending heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

 

Message from September 17, 2007. It is recommended to avoid writing covered call options due to increased probability of quick-term and short-term bullishness. Modified on September 24, 2007. Vector Pressure is again positive (bullish) and not configured favorably for writing covered call options. (Note: NYSE was up 7.3% from 09/17/07 through 10/31/07. The NASDAQ was up 10.7% from 09/17/07 through 10/31/07).

 

October 16, 2007 addendum: The market is nervous about inflationary pressures. This is a valid fundamental concern that can invite long-term bearishness. The stock market will not tolerate high rates of inflation; nor high interest rates.

 

October 17, 2007 addendum: You will notice the major indices are near their upper limit of the trading range. That does not mean bearish dominance is about to occur. If it does occur, your longer-term hold positions should be maintained until the major indices approach the lower limit of the trading range. Do not overreact to bearish threats; consider them as mere spurts in the face of the underlying bull.

 

November 7, 2007 addendum. The major indices again reacted bearishly with their recent interaction with the upper trading range limit. As long as this phenomenon occurs with the upper trading range limit, as opposed to the lower trading range limit, the trend remains bullish regardless of the displeasure one endures with these bearish spurts.

 

November 9, 2007 addendum. The underlying bullish bias is again being threatened by bearish aggression. Economic fundamentals are overpowering historical standards.

 

November 12, 2007 addendum. Increased market volatility is not favorable to writing options.

 

The Quick-term Bull remains in tact.

 

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is not avoiding QQQQ, which does not support holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.

 

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant began tracking ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It will not be included on overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets.

 

QID inclusion in overall ETF analysis will distort observations of market divergence and convergence due to the nature of its design. For example, precious metals and energy are contrarian but can parallel market direction with synergistic relationships.

 

QID will receive Quick-term and Short-term sell signals, but must mature more for independent near-term observations. This comment will be removed once that maturity is developed.

 

QID is down 47.4% since all three models signaled bear upon the initial offering of this ETF 72.0-weeks ago.

 

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

 

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

 

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

 

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

 

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.Net

11/29/07

 

 

 

 

 

Nov 28, 2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 19 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Seven of thirty; bullish bias holding, near-term bearish pressure relaxing.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Eight of thirty. Attribute remains configured with non-bearish support. This attribute is weakening, but configured with bearish resistance today.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Weak; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish response.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Weak, but improving with the bounce north off the lower trading range limit.

Force Vectors: Configurations continue supporting bullish bias, but very weak.

Vector Pressure: Five in bullish domains with minority support for bullish bias. This is not as strong as unanimous support and it no longer is configured with majority support. However, it is not yet supporting the bear.

Long-term Hold Positions: Bear threatening to hold positions.

Immediate Tactics: Hold until sell signals. Buy on buy signals.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish, but significantly weakened.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakened.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write any covered options in this environment.

Volume: Configurations are supporting bearish bias on a near-term basis, but as stated last Monday, slackening in that support.

 

Comment from September 17, 2007 Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….

 

Observation on September 18, 2007. The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not jittery behavior. It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!

 

October 19, 2007 Addendum. Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the face of the underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise if this bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest it is not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.

 

November 7, 2007 Addendum: The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting the upper trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the underlying bullish trend.

 

November 9, 2007 Addendum. Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the bullish trend has not been reversed.

 

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Dow is up 1.9% and the NASDAQ is up 1.3% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bear on November 9, 2007. Although disappointing to those desiring on-going bullish behavior, the Short-term Indicant attributes remain insufficient for a bull signal. A Short-term Indicant bear signal suggests the bull is not positioning itself for dominance.

 

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

 

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s  are not configured strongly due to light holiday volume. This has led to the early formation of a lethargic cycle. However, volume today and yesterday on aggressive bullish behavior was relatively high. This supports diminishing bearish tenacity, while not yet strongly configuring in favor of the bull.

 

As stated the past several weeks, robust volume on aggressive bearishness invigorated the bear. This configuration had been increasingly supporting bearish behavior. As stated yesterday, it is the  early stages of no longer supporting dynamic bearish support. Today’s 300-plus point Dow rise provided a testament to that prognosis.

 

Nov 12, 2007. The major indices are moving briskly toward the lower trading range limit. It is common for bull/bear battles to occur at the lower trading range limit. Watch this attribute. If the major indices fall below the lower trading range limit without a bullish response, the likelihood of sustainable bearish behavior will increase. Use the Quick-term Indicant exclusively for your recent buys/sells. Use the Consolidated model for your longer-term hold positions.

 

Nov 28, 2007. The major indices did not find comfort near the lower trading range limit, suggesting the bear is not in position to gain dominance over the stock market. The Dow is up 546-points since it neared that lower trading range limit last Monday. In other words, the bullish trend remains in tact.

 

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 72.7% (annualized at 27.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of 136.2-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding seven ETF’s at this time. They are down an average of 1.3% since their sell signals an average of 3.7-weeks ago.

 

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

 

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were two buy signals and no sell signals.  In addition to the buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up an average of 96.8% (annualized 37.8%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 131.8-weeks ago.  Although there were no sell signals, there are five ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down an average of 3.0% since their sell signals an average of 4.1-weeks ago.

 

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

 

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 14-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 32.3% (annualized at 29.9%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 55.6-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding sixteen ETF’s. They are down an average of 0.2% since their sell signals an average of 3.0-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

 

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are nine conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This harmonious relationship, although weakened with recent bearish expressions, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August 15, 2006.

 

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Eight of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by a slightly healthier 5.6%. Although this attribute is providing non-bearish support, it is being threatened by the bear. That support is now minimal. When the ETF’s average value is below bearish yellow, there will be no non-bearish support. Fortunately, its relative strength improved today.

 

Seven of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.0% below their bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance. Unfortunately, the average relative position is now without the full support of red bulls. As stated the past few days, this is encouraging the bear. However, bullish aggression the past two days has demonstrated bullish resistance to bearish aggression.

 

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

 

One of the thirty ETF’s is contacting its breakout line. It is non-contrarian ETF#27.

 

As stated the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in fifty-one of the last sixty-one trading days supports bullish bias. Non contact in eight of the last twenty-eight trading days suggested the upper trading range limit successfully resisted bullish desires several weeks ago and again the past few weeks. As stated the past several days, it is doubtful the bull will overpower the upper trading range limit on the near-term horizon.

 

The average distance from breakout contact is 8.3%. This remains in support of the quick-term bullish bias. However, even with bullish aggression the past two days, the energy required for additional bullish breakout is increasing to the point of potential bullish lethargy.

 

None of the ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. Recent contact encourages the bear.

 

The average distance from the price and breakdown is a more healthy 17.5%. This non-bearish attribute is weakening, but this configuration is still providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

 

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

 

Eleven Force Vectors are moving bullishly. As stated the past few days, impending bullish resistance to this bearish dominance is enhanced. Bullish aggression the past two days supports this outlook, but configurations are not yet strongly bullish. All that has occurred is a neutralization of bearish aggression.

 

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

 

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

 

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no option signals after Wednesday’s close. Unfortunately, today’s bullish expression was not friendly to Monday’s put option buy signals.

 

Only five ETF Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains. This is no longer providing near-unanimous  or majority bullish support. This is threatening to the underlying bullish theme even with bullish expressions the past two days.

 

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

 

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant