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November Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Updates

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This year's daily updates will be available here at month's end.

 

Nov 30, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 21 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Vector Pressure shifted back to the south last Friday. That should incentivize the bear a bit. Keep your eyes on the Near-term Bearish Green curve. It is still rising for most of the major stock market indices and non-contrarian ETF’s. That offers a point of bearish resistance. Until the major stock market indices and non-contrarian ETF’s interact with the NTI Bearish Green curve, the bull will remain in tact.

 

As stated last Friday, Dubai’s threatened loan default, alone, is not enough to send the stock market into a long sustainable bearish cycle. However, if prices fall below green, then reasons are become irrelevant as the direction becomes the only relevance. There is no need to worry until prices interact with green, which has been a solid buffering point to bearish ambition since last March. Simply wait for this interaction.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

All twelve major indices, including contrarian VIX, are up by an average of 20.5%, annualizing at 45.7%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 23.3-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 16.4%, annualizing at 34.6%, since their bull signals an average of 24.7-weeks ago.

 

The lone QTI bear, VIX, is down 31.4% since its bear signal 32.6-weeks ago. VIX eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough bearish synergy to support a VIX bull signal. Since then, the VIX weakened, but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for future aggression. You saw some of that aggression on Friday, November 27, 2009. The Quick-term needs to see a bit more bearish energy from the major indices before the Quick-term Indicant will signal bull for VIX and bear for the overall stock market. The near-term bull signal will quickly shift if its Force Vector dips back to the south.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; A majority of nine support bullish bias.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting bullish bias.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any bearish bias.

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Four, offering humble minority support for the NTI Bull.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;11-non-contrarian in bullish trend. VIX also in bullish trend.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend - Non-bearish majority with ten of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting near-term non-bearishness. VIX also with bullish trend.

      STI-Force Vector Cyclical Direction-Two non-contrarian moving north. New bull cycle forming and for those not yet shifted are bearishly mature, offering a slight edge to the bull.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend-Minority of only one moving bullishly, offering limited non-bearishness.

      Short-term Summary-Overall-Vector Pressure is no longer offering short-term bullish protection, while the high number of Red Bulls are guarding against sustainable bearish aggression. So, there is little evidence of a major shift in directional intensity, which is bullish.

 

-Tangential Protection Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal. Since last March, the bull has responded when attributes neared bear signal justifications.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The stock market can climb by significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

 

-Political Climate – The Senate’s preliminary passage of healthcare is a bit bearish. Dubai is threatening loan defaults is responsible for Friday’s bearish aggression. Congress will be returning to work and that will add to some bearish incentives.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators  lethargic configuration is now slowing. A robust configuration will not be surprising in the next few days, but some portions will be due seasonal volumes. The charts are not seasonally adjusted. Today’s mild bullish behavior was accompanied with mild volume, suggesting little interest in trend or cyclical shifts in directional intensity, which remains bullish.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 14.8%, annualizing at 46.2%, since their buy signals an average of 16.6-weeks ago.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four-ETF’s. They are up by an average of  3.3% since their sell signals an average of 3.4-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 22.8% since their buy signals an average of 26.3-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 45.0%.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the two avoided ETF’s are down by an average of 24.9% since their sell signals an average of 18.6-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bulls Count; minority of eight offering limited bullish support.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 28-sloping north; strong bullish support.

NTI Green Curve Trend; 28-sloping north; strong majority support for non-bearishness. The bear cannot dominate with this attribute.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 22-represent a majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness.

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  28-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

Force Vector Bullish Domain Occupancy; Three in bullish domains, which is mildly non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus non-threatening to the bull in spite of last Friday’s bearish aggression and threatening loan defaults by Dubai.

Force Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; 25 in bearish domains offering bear additional encouragement.

Vector Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild support for the bull.

Vector Pressure Trend; minority of six moving in bullish direction, offering limited bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these rising pressures with current configurations.

Short-term Summary: Most attributes remain non-bearish.

 

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

 

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

 

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 3.9% since that sell signal. It remains configured for potential “short-term bullishness” but significantly more overall stock market bearish synergy is required to signal buy for this fund and QQQQ must demonstrate some additional interest in bearish behavior.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 53.3% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $29.75 and still falling.

 

ETF#03-Natural Resources   - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 9.4% since those buy signals, annualizing at 28.6%.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 43.4% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 44.1%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $92.34 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 28.9% since then, annualizing at 47.3%.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. It is up 2.0% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish. You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences, while also not being motivated by its potential bullish desires.

 

Major ETF Events

Nov 30, 2009-Mon – There were no major events.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 30, 2009-Attributes remain non-bearish. Unfortunately, many attributes are not bullishly supportive.  

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

11/30/09

 

 

Nov 27, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 20 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Vector Pressure shifted back to the south today. That should incentivize the bear a bit. Keep your eyes on the Near-term Bearish Green curve. It is still rising for most of the major stock market indices and non-contrarian ETF’s. That offers a point of bearish resistance. Until the major stock market indices and non-contrarian ETF’s interact with the NTI Bearish Green curve, the bull will remain in tact. Dubai’s threatened loan default, alone, is not enough to send the stock market into a long sustainable bearish cycle. However, if prices fall below green, then the reasons are basically irrelevant as the direction becomes the only relevance. There is no need to worry until prices interact with green, which has been a solid buffering point to bearish ambition since last March. Simply wait for this interaction.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled one new bull and no new bears.

 

The eleven non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 22.0%, annualizing at 45.7%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 25.0-weeks ago. A bull signal was generated for the VIX.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 16.0%, annualizing at 34.3%, since their bull signals an average of 24.3-weeks ago.

 

The lone QTI bear, VIX, is down 31.0% since its bear signal 32.1-weeks ago. VIX eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough bearish synergy to support a VIX bull signal. Since then, the VIX weakened, but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for future aggression. You saw some of that aggression on Friday, November 27, 2009. The Quick-term needs to see a bit more bearish energy from the major indices before the Quick-term Indicant will signal bull for VIX and bear for the overall stock market.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; A majority of nine support bullish bias.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting bullish bias.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any bearish bias.

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Most lost on today’s bearish aggression and thus no bullish support.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;11-non-contrarian in bullish trend. VIX blue collapsed last Monday.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend - Non-bearish majority with ten of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting near-term non-bearishness.

      STI-Force Vector Cyclical Direction-One non-contrarian moving north. Bear cycle relatively mature, suggesting limited exposure to an ambitious bear.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend-Minority of only one moving bullishly, offering limited non-bearishness.

      Short-term Summary-Overall-Vector Pressure is no longer offering short-term bullish protection, while the high number of Red Bulls are guarding against sustainable bearish aggression.

 

-Tangential Protection Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal. Since last March, the bull has responded when attributes neared bear signal justifications.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

 

-Political Climate – The Senate’s preliminary passage of healthcare is a bit bearish. Dubai is threatening loan defaults is responsible for Friday’s bearish aggression. Congress will be returning to work and that will add to some bearish incentives.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators  continue moving lethargically and at an accelerating pace. Much of this is due to holiday seasonality. Last Monday’s aggressive bullish behavior was accompanied with flat volume, but relatively high when adjusted for seasonality. Tuesday’s volume was mild on mild bearishness, suggesting little interest in shifting directional intensity. Wednesday’s volume suggests Wall Street workers do not need any overtime as it was exceptionally light; even for holiday adjustments. Friday’s volume was light on aggressive bearish behavior.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 14.2%, annualizing at 45.6%, since their buy signals an average of 16.2-weeks ago.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four-ETF’s. They are up by an average of  2.1% since their sell signals an average of 3.0-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 22.1% since their buy signals an average of 25.9-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 44.4%.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the two avoided ETF’s are down by an average of 25.9% since their sell signals an average of 18.1-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bulls Count; minority of six offering limited bullish support.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 28-sloping north; strong bullish support.

NTI Green Curve Trend; 28-sloping north; strong majority support for non-bearishness. The bear cannot dominate with this attribute.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 28-represent a majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness.

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  28-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness. Lost one non-contrarian last Thursday.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

Force Vector Bullish Domain Occupancy; Four in bullish domains, which is mildly non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus non-threatening to the bull in spite of Friday’s bearish aggression and threatening loan defaults by Dubai.

Force Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; 24 in bearish domains offering bear additional encouragement.

Vector Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild support for the bull.

Vector Pressure Trend; minority of seven moving in bullish direction, offering limited bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these rising pressures with current configurations.

 

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

 

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

 

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 4.0% since that sell signal. It remains configured for potential “short-term bullishness” but significantly more overall stock market bearish synergy is required to signal buy for this fund and QQQQ must demonstrate some additional interest in bearish behavior.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 53.2% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $29.84 and still falling.

 

ETF#03-Natural Resources   - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 9.8% since those buy signals, annualizing at 30.5%.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 42.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 43.8%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $92.18 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 28.2% since then, annualizing at 46.9%.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. It is up 1.8% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish. You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences, while also not being motivated by its potential bullish desires.

 

Major ETF Events

Nov 26, 2009-Most Vector Pressures shifted back to the south today, offering the bear a bit more encouragement. However, in spite of Dubai’s threatened defaults on loan payments, the bull remains in tact.

Nov 25, 2009-Six ETF Short-term Vector Pressures shifted back to the south. The gain in two Near-term Blue Bulls is somewhat offsetting.

Nov 24, 2009-One non-contrarian’s QTI Bearish Yellow Curve shifted to bearish slope today. This is minor, relative to overall stock market, it is worthy of mention, since this is the first time this occurred since last February.

Nov 23, 2009-VIX Near-term Blue Curve collapsed today. That suggests little VIX bullish interest on the immediate horizon, which is non-bearish for the overall stock market.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 27, 2009-Although bullish pressure decreased considerably, rising NTI green curves offer bearish resistance and thus no need to panic. Nov 24, 2009-Same as yesterday; most attributes are non-bearish. Nov 23, 2009-Most of the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant attributes continue holding bullish configurations.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

11/27/09

 

 

Nov 25, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 19 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. Near-term Green curves at the other extreme are improving in their bullish support.

 

Most Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term attributes remain non-bearish. There is some concern the bounce off the Near-term Green curve has been weak, so far. Nevertheless, though, Near-term attributes remain non-bearish in spite of this weak bullish behavior.

 

The stock market responded, bullishly, to healthier economic data last Monday, overriding bearish potential from healthcare legislation. The bull could climb this wall of worry in the hopes of legislative rescission by the next Congress in the event the current Congress actually passes healthcare proposals into law. This is fundamental and more or less will have secular implications in the event of passage.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The eleven non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 24.1%, annualizing at 50.8%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 24.7-weeks ago. The lone avoid signal (VIX) is down 10.2% since the bear signal 1.3-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 18.0%, annualizing at 39.1%, since their bull signals an average of 24.0-weeks ago.

 

The lone QTI bear, VIX, is down 42.8% since its bear signal 31.9-weeks ago. VIX eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough bearish synergy to support a VIX bull signal. Since then, the VIX weakened, but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for future aggression.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; A solid majority of ten support bullish bias.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting bullish bias.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any bearish bias.

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; Majority of nine blue bulls, supporting NTI Bull.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;11-non-contrarian in bullish trend. VIX blue collapsed last Monday.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend - Non-bearish majority with ten of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting near-term non-bearishness.

      STI-Force Vector Cyclical Direction-One non-contrarian moving north. Bear cycle relatively mature, suggesting limited exposure to an ambitious bear.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend-Minority of two moving bullishly, suggesting mild non-bearishness.

      Short-term Summary-Overall-Vector Pressure is the primary short-term bullish protecting attribute, while the high number of Red Bulls are guarding against sustainable bearish aggression.

 

-Tangential Protection Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal. Since last March, the bull has responded when attributes neared bear signal justifications.

 

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

-Political Climate – The Senate preliminarily passed healthcare legislation last Saturday night. However, Congress is now in recess, which is non-bearish.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators  continue moving lethargically and at an accelerating pace. Much of this is due to holiday seasonality. Last Monday’s aggressive bullish behavior was accompanied with flat volume, but relatively high when adjusted for seasonality. Yesterday’s volume was mild on mild bearishness, suggesting little interest in shifting directional intensity. Today’s volume suggests Wall Street workers do not need any overtime as it was exceptionally light; even for holiday adjustments.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 16.6%, annualizing at 54.2%, since their buy signals an average of 15.9-weeks ago.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four-ETF’s. They are up by an average of  2.6% since their sell signals an average of 2.7-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 24.7% since their buy signals an average of 25.6-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 50.1%.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the two avoided ETF’s are down by an average of 26.1% since their sell signals an average of 17.9-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bulls Count; majority of 18-offering bullish support.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 28-sloping north; strong bullish support.

NTI Green Curve Trend; 23-sloping north; strong majority support for non-bearishness. The bear cannot dominate with this attribute.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 22-represent a solid majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness.

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  28-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness. Lost one non-contrarian today.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

Force Vector Bullish Domain Occupancy; Four in bullish domains, which is mildly non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus non-threatening to the bull.

Force Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; one in bearish domains offering bear minimal encouragement.

Vector Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild support for the bull.

Vector Pressure Trend; 18-moving in bullish direction, offering bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these rising pressures.

 

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

 

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

 

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 1.1% since that sell signal. It remains configured for potential “short-term bullishness” but significant more overall stock market bearish synergy is required to signal buy for this fund and QQQQ must demonstrate some additional interest in bearish behavior.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 54.5% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $29.94 and still falling.

 

ETF#03-Natural Resources   - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 11.9% since those buy signals, annualizing at 37.6%.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 44.6% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 46.0%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $92.03 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 30.0% since then, annualizing at 50.2%.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. It is up 1.4% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish. You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences, while also not being motivated by its potential bullish desires.

 

Major ETF Events

Nov 25, 2009-Six ETF Short-term Vector Pressures shifted back to the south. The gain in two Near-term Blue Bulls is somewhat offsetting.

Nov 24, 2009-One non-contrarian’s QTI Bearish Yellow Curve shifted to bearish slope today. This is minor, relative to overall stock market, it is worthy of mention, since this is the first time this occurred since last February.

Nov 23, 2009-VIX Near-term Blue Curve collapsed today. That suggests little VIX bullish interest on the immediate horizon, which is non-bearish for the overall stock market.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 24, 2009-Same as yesterday; most attributes are non-bearish. Nov 23, 2009-Most of the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant attributes continue holding bullish configurations.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

11/25/09

 

 

Nov 24, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 18 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. Near-term Green curves at the other extreme are improving in their bullish support.

 

Most Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term attributes remain non-bearish.

 

The stock market responded, bullishly, to healthier economic data yesterday, overriding bearish potential from healthcare legislation. The bull could climb this wall of worry in the hopes of legislative rescission by the next Congress in the event the current Congress actually passes healthcare proposals into law. This is fundamental and more or less will have secular implications in the event of passage.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The eleven non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 23.6%, annualizing at 49.9%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 24.6-weeks ago. The lone avoid signal (VIX) is down 10.5% since the bear signal 1.1-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 17.5%, annualizing at 38.2%, since their bull signals an average of 23.8-weeks ago.

 

The lone QTI bear, VIX, is down 43.0% since its bear signal 31.7-weeks ago. VIX eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough bearish synergy to support a VIX bull signal. Since then, the VIX weakened, but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for future aggression.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; A solid majority of ten support bullish bias.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting bullish bias.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any bearish bias.

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; There are seven blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;11-non-contrarian in bullish trend. VIX blue collapsed yesterday.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend - Non-bearish minority with nine of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend.

      STI-Force Vector Cyclical Direction-Zero non-contrarian moving north. Force Vectors are interacting with Vector Pressure, suggesting increased directional intensity in either direction.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend-Majority of six moving bullishly, supporting Short-term bullish bias.

      Short-term Summary-Overall-Vector Pressure is the primary short-term bullish protecting attribute, while the high number of Red Bulls are guarding against sustainable bearish aggression.

 

-Tangential Protection Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal. Since last March, the bull has responded when attributes neared bear signal justifications.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

-Political Climate – The Senate preliminarily passed healthcare legislation last Saturday night. However, Congress is now in recess, which is non-bearish.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators  continue moving lethargically. Much of this is due to holiday seasonality. Yesterday’s aggressive bullish behavior was supported with flat volume, but relatively high when adjusted for seasonality. Today’s volume was mild on mild bearishness, suggesting little interest in shifting directional intensity.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 15.8%, annualizing at 52.2%, since their buy signals an average of 15.8-weeks ago.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four-ETF’s. They are up by an average of  2.2% since their sell signals an average of 2.6-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 23.9% since their buy signals an average of 25.5-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 48.8%.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the two avoided ETF’s are down by an average of 23.9% since their sell signals an average of 17.7-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bulls Count; 16-bullish support.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 28-sloping north; strong bullish support.

NTI Green Curve Trend; 20-sloping north; strong majority support for non-bearishness. The bear cannot dominate with this attribute.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 23-represent a solid majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness.

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  28-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness. Lost one non-contrarian today.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

Force Vector Bullish Domain Occupancy; Three in bullish domains, which is mildly non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus non-threatening to the bull.

Force Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; one in bearish domains offering bear minimal encouragement.

Vector Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild support for the bull.

Vector Pressure Trend; 24-moving in bullish direction, offering additional bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these rising pressures.

 

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

 

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

 

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 1.9% since that sell signal. It remains configured for potential “short-term bullishness” but significant more overall stock market bearish synergy is required to signal buy for this fund and QQQQ must demonstrate some additional interest in bearish behavior.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 54.1% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.04 and still falling.

 

ETF#03-Natural Resources   - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 11.1% since those buy signals, annualizing at 35.2%.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 42.3% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 43.7%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $91.88 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 27.9% since then, annualizing at 46.9%.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. It is up 0.9% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish. You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences, while also not being motivated by its potential bullish desires.

 

Major ETF Events

Nov 24, 2009-One non-contrarian’s QTI Bearish Yellow Curve shifted to bearish slope today. This is minor, relative to overall stock market, it is worthy of mention, since this is the first time this occurred since last February.

Nov 23, 2009-VIX Near-term Blue Curve collapsed today. That suggests little VIX bullish interest on the immediate horizon, which is non-bearish for the overall stock market.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 24, 2009-Same as yesterday; most attributes are non-bearish. Nov 23, 2009-Most of the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant attributes continue holding bullish configurations.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

11/24/09

 

 

Nov 23, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 17 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. Near-term Green curves at the other extreme are improving in their bullish support.

 

The primary concerns remain the same. Although Vector Pressure is again inclining, bullishly mature Force Vectors remain as a mild threat on a short-term basis. Their lateral moving behavior minimizes potential for this threat. However, they are again angling to the south and point of minor concern. They are in bullish domains, so any bearish expressions would not be severe or long lasting.

 

The stock market responded, bullishly, to healthier economic data today, overriding Congressional concerns regarding healthcare. The bull could climb this wall of worry in the hopes of rescinding in the event healthcare actually passes into law.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The eleven non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 23.9%, annualizing at 50.9%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 24.4-weeks ago. The lone avoid signal (VIX) is down 7.1% since the bear signal 1.0-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 17.8%, annualizing at 39.1%, since their bull signals an average of 23.7-weeks ago.

 

The lone QTI bear, VIX, is down 40.9% since its bear signal 31.6-weeks ago. VIX eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough bearish synergy to support a VIX bull signal. Since then, the VIX weakened, but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for future aggression.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; A solid majority of ten support bullish bias.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting bullish bias.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any bearish bias.

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; There are eight blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;11-non-contrarian in bullish trend. VIX blue collapsed today.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend - Non-bearish minority with nine of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend.

      STI-Force Vector Cyclical Direction-Zero non-contrarian moving north. Force Vectors are interacting with Vector Pressure, suggesting increased directional intensity in either direction.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend-All but VIX bullishly directed.

      Short-term Summary-Overall-The high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.

 

-Tangential Protection Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal. Since last March, the bull has responded when attributes neared bear signal justifications.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

-Political Climate – The Senate preliminarily passed healthcare legislation last Saturday night. However, Congress is now in recess, which is non-bearish.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators  continue moving lethargically. Much of this is due to holiday seasonality. Today’s aggressive bullish behavior was supported with flat volume, but relatively high when adjusted for seasonality.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 16.0%, annualizing at 53.3%, since their buy signals an average of 15.6-weeks ago.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four-ETF’s. They are up by an average of  2.4% since their sell signals an average of 2.4-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 24.1% since their buy signals an average of 25.3-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 49.5%.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the two avoided ETF’s are down by an average of 26.3% since their sell signals an average of 17.6-weeks ago.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bulls Count; 19-solid bullish support.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, offering improved strong bullish support.

NTI Green Curve Trend; 19-sloping north, expressing improved majority support for non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This is now steadying following several days of weakening non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 27-represent a solid majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness.

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness. Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

Force Vector Bullish Domain Occupancy; Five in bullish domains, which is mildly non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus non-threatening to the bull.

Force Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; one in bearish domains offering little bearish support.

Vector Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild support for the bull.

Vector Pressure Trend; 26-moving in bullish direction, offering additional bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these rising pressures.

 

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

 

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

 

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 1.2% since that sell signal. It remains configured for potential “short-term bullishness” but significant more overall stock market bearish synergy is required to signal buy for this fund.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 54.5% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.13 and still falling.

 

ETF#03-Natural Resources   - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 10.4% since those buy signals, annualizing at 33.5%.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 41.7% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 43.3%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $91.72 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 27.4% since then, annualizing at 46.3%.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. It is up 0.4% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish. You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences, while also not being motivated by its potential bullish desires.

 

Major ETF Events

Nov 23, 2009-VIX Near-term Blue Curve collapsed today. That suggests little VIX bullish interest on the immediate horizon, which is non-bearish for the overall stock market.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 23, 2009-Most of the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant attributes continue holding bullish configurations.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

11/23/09

 

 

Nov 20, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 16 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. Near-term rising green curves add a bit of comfort to the bull’s longevity.

 

The primary concerns remain the same. Although Vector Pressure is again inclining, bullishly mature Force Vectors remain as a mild threat on a short-term basis. Their lateral moving behavior minimizes potential for this threat. However, they are again angling to the south and point of minor concern. They are in bullish domains, so any bearish expressions would not be severe or long lasting.

 

Be aware of Congressional surprises. Healthcare continues to be a threatening element to this bull. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill later this Saturday night. If the bill passes for deliberation, do not be surprised at a bearish reaction. Passage for deliberation is believed to be a mere formality for passage into law. Also, insiders may leak reliable information and the bear may anticipate.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The eleven non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 22.2%, annualizing at 48.2%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 24.0-weeks ago. The lone avoid signal (VIX) is down 2.8% since the bear signal 0.6-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 16.2%, annualizing at 36.3%, since their bull signals an average of 23.3-weeks ago.

 

The lone QTI bear, VIX, is down 38.1% since its bear signal 31.1-weeks ago. VIX eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough bearish synergy to support a bull signal. Since then, the VIX weakened, but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for future aggression.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; A solid majority of nine support bullish bias, but lost one last Thursday.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting bullish bias.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any bearish bias.

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; There are five blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support. The loss of five last Thursday and one today has resulted in minority support and somewhat weakened.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;12-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend, including contrarian VIX.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend - Non-bearish minority with seven of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend. Five shifted into bearish slope several days ago, increasing concerns about bearish aggression. Although that concern remains, it is now a minor one. Two more resumed bullish trend today.

      STI-Force Vector Cyclical Direction-Zero non-contrarian moving north, offering bearish spurt potential. Force Vectors are “listing” to the right, supporting non-bearishness. Last Thursday’s bearishness generated a more bearish angular configuration, but still residing in bullish domains.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend-All but VIX bullishly directed.

      Short-term Summary-Overall-The high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression. However, the impending senatorial vote on healthcare legislation is increasingly threatening to the stock market’s bull.

 

-Tangential Protection Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal. Since last March, the bull has responded when attributes neared bear signal justifications.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

-Political Climate – Congress in session  is bearish. Technical data continues overriding congressional bearish threats with bullish attributes at this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats by the U.S. Senate and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return until the next major Congressional recess. However, recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia could accelerate this. However, technical data continues supporting the current bull. There are a few remnants of mild bearish bias, but now bordering minutiae.  The only concern is VIX’s rising NTI Green curve and its Force Vector still remains mildly supportive of VIX bullishness and stock market bearishness.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators  are becoming increasingly lethargic due, in part, to the holidays. Last Monday’s bullish behavior was accompanied with significantly higher volume, suggesting increased support for the bull. Last Tuesday’s volume on mildly bullish behavior was light, suggesting little interest in shifting direction. Wednesday’s volume was slightly higher on mild bearish behavior. Thursday’s bearishness was not accompanied with high volume, suggesting limited aggressive support for continued bearishness. Today’s volume was very light on mild bearish behavior. Overall, the increasingly lethargic volume indicators are suggesting little interest in promulgating dynamic cyclical behavior in either direction. In essence last Monday’s bullishness was wiped out by bearishness during the course of last week. Passive behavior is supported by lethargic volume configurations. Some of this is due to holiday seasonality.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 14.5%, annualizing at 49.5%, since their buy signals an average of 15.2-weeks ago.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four-ETF’s. They are up by an average of  2.5% since their sell signals an average of 2.0-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 22.5% since their buy signals an average of 24.9-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 46.9%.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the two avoided ETF’s are down by an average of 26.1% since their sell signals an average of 17.1-weeks ago.

 

Last Thursday’s sell signal for ETF #06, EWJ, could not be avoided. Price fell below NTI bearish green and QTI bearish yellow. Vector Pressure is drifting south. Although there is no bearish synergy or breadth, continued holding for this ETF threatens accumulated profits.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bulls Count; Nine-mild bullish support.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, offering improved strong bullish support.

NTI Green Curve Trend; 15-sloping north, expressing mild minority support for non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This is now steadying following several days of weakening non-bearish support. A majority of 16 or more would be a bit more comfortable for those desiring continued bullishness.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 21-represent a mild majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; 1-non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. It is a bit discerning that one non-contrarian is now a yellow bear.

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness. Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

Force Vector Bullish Domain Occupancy; Eleven in bullish domains, which is non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus non-threatening to the bull.

Force Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; one in bearish domains offering little bearish support.

Vector Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild support for the bull.

Vector Pressure Trend; 27-moving in bullish direction, which is a significant increase the past few days. This is offering additional bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these rising pressures.

 

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

 

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

 

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 4.6% since that sell signal. It remains configured for potential “short-term bullishness” but significant more overall stock market bearish synergy is required to signal buy for this fund.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 52.9% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.23 and still falling.

 

ETF#03-Natural Resources   - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 9.0% since those buy signals, annualizing at 29.8%. Bullish vitality appears to be weakening.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 40.0% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 41.9%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $91.58 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 25.9% since then, annualizing at 44.4%.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. It is up 0.4% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish. You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences, while also not being motivated by its potential bullish desires.

 

Major ETF Events

Nov 20, 2009-Fri-Lost a few blue bulls today, but non-threatening in either direction.

Nov 19, 2009-Thu-First non-contrarian QTI sell signal occurred today in over six months. It is ETF#06, EWJ.

Nov 18, 2009-Wed-Same as yesterday.

Nov 17, 2009-Tue-Low volume, suggesting little interest in dynamic behavior in either direction.

Nov 16, 2009-Mon-Strong bullish behavior and laterally moving Force Vectors support bull.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 20, 2009-As long as most ETF’s and major indices remain above near-term green curve, the bear cannot dominate. If the stock market reacts bearishly to the Senate’s vote Saturday night, sustainable bearish dominance cannot be possible as long as the Near-term Indicant Green curve continues moving north. This will be true even if the Near-term Blue Curves collapse under the weight of Senatorial stupidity. Nov 19, 2009-Regardless of what reasons are provided by the media describing bearish behavior’s causative reasons, it is a direct function of the Senatorial threat to vote “yes” on their 2,000+ page nonsensical legislation. Be cautious, as the bear may anticipate a passage this weekend. Nov 18, 2009-Senate is schedule to vote on healthcare legislation in a few days. The stock market’s low volume suggests many are “waiting.” Do not be surprised at a bearish reaction in the event the bill passes. Nov 17, 2009-Most attributes support bull, but a few of them are still asserting bearish potential. Regardless though, the bear cannot become dominant at this time. Nov 16, 2009-The bull reasserted its dominance. Force Vectors did not shift sharply south, suggesting the bull’s continued dominance. Some Near-term attributes are bordering in their support of the bear. This suggests potential for volatility, but the bull continues to express little interest in expiring.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

11/20/09

 

 

Nov 19, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 15 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against dynamic sustainable bearish behavior.

 

The primary concerns late last week remain the same. Although Vector Pressure is again inclining, bullishly mature Force Vectors remain as a mild threat on a short-term basis. Their lateral moving behavior minimizes potential for this threat. However, they are again angling to the south and point of minor concern. They are in bullish domains, so any bearish expressions would not be severe.

 

Be aware of Congressional surprises. Healthcare continues to be a threatening element to this bull. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill later this week. If the bill passes, do not be surprised at a bearish reaction. Also, insiders may leak reliable information and the bear may anticipate.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The eleven non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 22.6%, annualizing at 49.2%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 23.9-weeks ago. The lone avoid signal (VIX) is down 0.8% since the bear signal 0.4-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 16.5%, annualizing at 37.2%, since their bull signals an average of 23.1-weeks ago.

 

The lone QTI bear, VIX, is down 36.9% since its bear signal 31.0-weeks ago. VIX eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough bearish synergy to support a bull signal. Since then, the VIX weakened, but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for future aggression.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; A solid majority of nine support bullish bias, but lost one today.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting bullish bias.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any bearish bias.

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; There are six blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support. The loss of five today has resulted in minority support and somewhat weakened.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;12-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend, including contrarian VIX.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend - Non-bearish minority with five of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend. Five shifted into bearish slope several days ago, increasing concerns about bearish aggression. Although that concern remains, it is now a minor one.

      STI-Force Vector Cyclical Direction-One non-contrarian moving north, which is down by ten from last Thursday. Force Vectors are “listing” to the right, supporting non-bearishness. However today’s bearishness generated a more bearish angular configuration.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend-All but VIX bullishly directed.

      Short-term Summary-Overall-The high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression. However, the impending senatorial vote on healthcare legislation is increasingly threatening to the stock market’s bull.

 

-Tangential Protection Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

-Political Climate – Congress in session  is bearish. Technical data continues overriding congressional bearish threats with bullish attributes at this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats by the U.S. Senate and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return until the next major Congressional recess. However, recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia could accelerate this. However, technical data continues supporting the current bull. There are a few remnants of mild bearish bias, but now bordering minutiae.  The only concern is VIX’s rising NTI Green curve and its Force Vector still remains mildly supportive of VIX bullishness.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators  are becoming increasingly lethargic due, in part, to the holidays. Last Monday’s bullish behavior was accompanied with significantly higher volume, suggesting increased support for the bull. Last Tuesday’s volume on mildly bullish behavior was light, suggesting little interest in shifting direction. Yesterday’s volume was slightly higher on mild bearish behavior. Today’s bearishness was not accompanied with high volume, suggesting limited aggressive support for continued bearishness. Overall, the increasingly lethargic volume indicators are suggesting little interest in promulgating dynamic cyclical behavior in either direction. In essence last Monday’s bullishness was wiped out by today’s bearishness. Passive behavior is supported by lethargic volume configurations. Some of this is due to holiday seasonality.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

 

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 14.8%, annualizing at 51.1%, since their buy signals an average of 15.1-weeks ago.

 

In addition to the sell signal, the NTI is avoiding three-ETF’s. They are up by an average of  3.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 2.5-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average of 22.8% since their buy signals an average of 24.8-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 48.0%.

 

In addition to the sell signal, the currently lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 53.4% since its sell signal on Mar 26, 2009.

 

Today’s sell signal for ETF #06, EWJ, could not be avoided. Price fell below NTI bearish green and QTI bearish yellow. Vector Pressure is drifting south. Although there is no bearish synergy or breadth, continued holding for this ETF threatens accumulated profits.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bulls Count; 13-mild bullish support.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, offering improved strong bullish support.

NTI Green Curve Trend; 14-sloping north, expressing mild minority support for non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This is now steadying following several days of weakening non-bearish support. A majority of 15 or more would be a bit more comfortable for those desiring continued bullishness.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 21-represent a mild majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; 1-non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. It is a bit discerning that one non-contrarian is now a yellow bear.

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness. Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

Force Vector Bullish Domain Occupancy; 23 in bullish domains, which is non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus non-threatening to the bull.

Force Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; one in bearish domains offering little bearish support.

Vector Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild support for the bull.

Vector Pressure Trend; 29-moving in bullish direction, which is a significant increase the past few days. This is offering additional bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these rising pressures.

 

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

 

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

 

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 3.5% since that sell signal. It remains configured for potential “short-bullishness.”

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 53.4% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.33 and still falling.

 

ETF#03-Natural Resources   - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 10.9% since those buy signals, annualizing at 33.4%. Bullish vitality appears to be weakening.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 39.2% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 41.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $91.45 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 25.2% since then, annualizing at 43.4%.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. It is up 0.4% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish. You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences.

 

Major ETF Events

Nov 19, 2009-Thu-First non-contrarian QTI sell signal occurred today in over six months. It is ETF#06, EWJ.

Nov 18, 2009-Wed-Same as yesterday.

Nov 17, 2009-Tue-Low volume, suggesting little interest in dynamic behavior in either direction.

Nov 16, 2009-Mon-Strong bullish behavior and laterally moving Force Vectors support bull.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 19, 2009-Regardless of what reasons are provided by the media describing bearish behavior’s causative reasons, it is a direct function of the Senatorial threat to vote “yes” on their 2,000+ page nonsensical legislation. Be cautious, as the bear may anticipate a passage this weekend. Nov 18, 2009-Senate is schedule to vote on healthcare legislation in a few days. The stock market’s low volume suggests many are “waiting.” Do not be surprised at a bearish reaction in the event the bill passes. Nov 17, 2009-Most attributes support bull, but a few of them are still asserting bearish potential. Regardless though, the bear cannot become dominant at this time. Nov 16, 2009-The bull reasserted its dominance. Force Vectors did not shift sharply south, suggesting the bull’s continued dominance. Some Near-term attributes are bordering in their support of the bear. This suggests potential for volatility, but the bull continues to express little interest in expiring.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

11/19/09

 

 

Nov 18, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 14 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against dynamic sustainable bearish behavior.

 

The primary concerns late last week remain the same. Although Vector Pressure is again inclining, bullishly mature Force Vectors remain as a mild threat on a short-term basis. Their lateral moving behavior minimizes potential for this threat.

 

Be aware of Congressional surprises. Healthcare continues to be a threatening element to this bull. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill later this week. If the bill passes, do not be surprised at a bearish reaction.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The eleven non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 24.5%, annualizing at 53.5%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 23.9-weeks ago. The lone avoid signal (VIX) is down 5.2% since the bear signal 0.4-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 18.4%, annualizing at 41.4%, since their bull signals an average of 23.1-weeks ago.

 

The lone QTI bear, VIX, is down 39.6% since its bear signal 31.0-weeks ago. VIX eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough bearish synergy to support a bull signal. Since then, the VIX weakened, but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for future aggression.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      QTI-Red Bull Count; A solid majority of ten support bullish bias.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend; Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting bullish bias.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend; Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.

      QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any bearish bias.

      NTI-Blue Bull Count; There are eleven blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend;11-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend, including contrarian VIX.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend - Non-bearish minority with five of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend. Five shifted into bearish slope several days ago, increasing concerns about bearish aggression. Although that concern remains, it is now a minor one.

      STI-Force Vector Cyclical Direction-One non-contrarian moving north, which is down by ten from last Thursday. Force Vectors are “listing” to the right, supporting non-bearishness.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend-All but VIX bullishly directed.

      Short-term Summary-Overall-The high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.

 

-Tangential Protection Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

-Political Climate – Congress in session  is bearish, even though out of session this past week. Technical data continues overriding congressional bearishness with bullish attributes at this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats by the U.S. Senate and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return until the next major Congressional recess. However, recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia could accelerate this. However, technical data continues supporting the current bull. There are a few remnants of mild bearish bias, but now bordering minutiae.  The only concern is VIX’s rising NTI Green curve and its Force Vector still remains mildly supportive of VIX bullishness.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators  are becoming increasingly lethargic due, in part, to the holidays. Last Monday’s bullish behavior was accompanied with significantly higher volume, suggesting increased support for the bull. Yesterday’s volume on mildly bullish behavior was light, suggesting little interest in shifting direction. Today’s volume was slightly higher on mild bearish behavior. Overall, the increasingly lethargic volume indicators are suggesting little interest in promulgating dynamic cyclical behavior in either direction.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 16.5%, annualizing at 55.1%, since their buy signals an average of 16.5-weeks ago.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding three-ETF’s. They are up by an average of  3.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 2.3-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 24.1% since their buy signals an average of 24.7-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 50.7%. Although there were no sell signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 54.9% since its sell signal on Mar 26, 2009.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bulls Count; 26-strong bullish support with strong majority position.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, offering improved strong bullish support.

NTI Green Curve Trend; 14-sloping north, expressing minority support for non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This is now steadying following several days of weakening non-bearish support. A majority of 15 or more would be a bit more comfortable for those desiring continued bullishness.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 26-represent a strong majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; 27-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; 0-non-contrarian represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. Contrarian QID is the only yellow bear and thus non-threatening to the QTI Bull.

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness. Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

Force Vector Bullish Domain Occupancy; 25 in bullish domains, which is non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus non-threatening to the bull.

Zero-Force Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; zero in bearish domains offering little bearish support.

Vector Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild support for the bull.

Vector Pressure Trend; 29-moving in bullish direction, which is a significant increase the past five days. This is offering additional bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these rising pressures.

 

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

 

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

 

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 0.3% since that sell signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 54.9% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.43 and still falling.

 

ETF#03-Natural Resources   - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 12.6% since those buy signals, annualizing at 42.3%. Bullish vitality appears to be weakening.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 39.2% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 41.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $91.34 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 25.1% since then, annualizing at 41.2%.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. It is up 0.3% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.

 

Major ETF Events

Nov 18, 2009-Wed-Same as yesterday.

Nov 17, 2009-Tue-Low volume, suggesting little interest in dynamic behavior in either direction.

Nov 16, 2009-Mon-Strong bullish behavior and laterally moving Force Vectors support bull.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 18, 2009-Senate is schedule to vote on healthcare legislation in a few days. The stock market’s low volume suggests many are “waiting.” Do not be surprised at a bearish reaction in the event the bill passes. Nov 17, 2009-Most attributes support bull, but a few of them are still asserting bearish potential. Regardless though, the bear cannot become dominant at this time. Nov 16, 2009-The bull reasserted its dominance. Force Vectors did not shift sharply south, suggesting the bull’s continued dominance. Some Near-term attributes are bordering in their support of the bear. This suggests potential for volatility, but the bull continues to express little interest in expiring.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

11/18/09

 

 

Nov 17, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 12 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against dynamic sustainable bearish behavior.

 

The primary concerns late last week remain the same. Although Vector Pressure is again inclining, bullishly mature Force Vectors remain as a mild threat on a short-term basis. Their lateral moving behavior minimizes potential for this threat.

 

Be aware of Congressional surprises. Healthcare continues to be a threatening element to this bull.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

The eleven non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 24.9%, annualizing at 55.0%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 23.6-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 18.8%, annualizing at 42.7%, since their bull signals an average of 22.8-weeks ago.

 

The lone QTI bear, VIX, is down 37.5% since its bear signal 30.7-weeks ago. VIX eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough bearish synergy to support a bull signal.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      QTI-Red Bulls-A solid majority of ten support bullish bias.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend-Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting bullish bias.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve-Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.

      QIT-Yellow Bears-None of the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any bearish bias.

      NTI-Blue Bulls-There are eleven blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend-11-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend, including contrarian VIX.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend - Non-bearish minority with five of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend. Five shifted into bearish slope several days ago, increasing concerns about bearish aggression. Although that concern remains, it is now a minor one.

      STI-Force Vector Cyclical Direction-One non-contrarian moving north, which is down by ten from last Thursday. Force Vectors are “listing” to the right, supporting non-bearishness.

      STI-Vector Pressure Trend-All but VIX bullishly directed.

      Short-term Summary-Overall-The high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.

 

-Tangential Protection Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

-Political Climate – Congress in session  is bearish, even though out of session this past week. Technical data continues overriding congressional bearishness with bullish attributes at this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats by the U.S. Senate and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return until the next major Congressional recess. However, recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia could accelerate this. However, technical data continues supporting the current bull. There are a few remnants of mild bearish bias, but now bordering minutiae.  The only concern is VIX’s rising NTI Green curve and its Force Vector still remains mildly supportive of VIX bullishness.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators  are becoming increasingly lethargic due, in part, to the holidays. Yesterday’s bullish behavior was accompanied with significantly higher volume, suggesting increased support for the bull. Today’s volume on mildly bullish behavior was light, suggesting little interest in shifting direction.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.

 

In addition to the buy signal, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 17.5%, annualizing at 57.0%, since their buy signals an average of 16.0-weeks ago.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding three-ETF’s. They are up by an average of  2.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 2.2-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 24.5% since their buy signals an average of 24.6-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 51.8%. Although there were no sell signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 55.3% since its sell signal on Mar 26, 2009.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

NTI Blue Bulls Count; 27-strong bullish support with strong majority position.

NTI Blue Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, offering improved strong bullish support.

NTI Green Curve Trend; 12-sloping north, expressing minority support for non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This is now steadying following several days of weakening non-bearish support. A majority of 15 or more would be a bit more comfortable for those desiring continued bullishness.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

QTI Red Bull Count; 28-represent a strong majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Bullish Red Curve Trend; 27-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

QTI Yellow Bear Count; 0-non-contrarian represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. Contrarian QID is the only yellow bear and thus non-threatening to the QTI Bull.

QTI Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;  29-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness. Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

Force Vector Bullish Domain Occupancy; 27 in bullish domains, which is non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus non-threatening to the bull.

Zero-Force Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; zero in bearish domains offering little bearish support.

Vector Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild support for the bull.

Vector Pressure Trend; 29-moving in bullish direction, which is a significant increase the past four days. This is offering additional bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these rising pressures.

 

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

 

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

 

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID yesterday.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 55.3% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.54 and still falling.

 

ETF#03-Natural Resources   - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 13.0% since those buy signals, annualizing at 44.2%. Bullish vitality appears to be weakening.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 38.8% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 41.0%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $91.23 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 24.8% since then, annualizing at 43.1%.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. It is up 0.8% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish. Interestingly, this fund was not contrarian the past two days.

 

Major ETF Events

Nov 17, 2009-Tue-Low volume, suggesting little interest in dynamic behavior in either direction.

Nov 16, 2009-Mon-Strong bullish behavior and laterally moving Force Vectors support bull.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 17, 2009-Most attributes support bull, but a few of them are still asserting bearish potential. Regardless though, the bear cannot become dominant at this time. Nov 16, 2009-The bull reasserted its dominance. Force Vectors did not shift sharply south, suggesting the bull’s continued dominance. Some Near-term attributes are bordering in their support of the bear. This suggests potential for volatility, but the bull continues to express little interest in expiring.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

11/17/09

 

 

Nov 16, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 11 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

The Near-term Bull countered the bear’s attack with forceful bullish expressions today. Although the bear still has a few weapons, they lack destructive capacity at this time.

 

Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. An immediate question will be the comfort level of these newly configured Red Bulls. Discomfort will be inspirational to the bear. As you can tell from today’s bullish expression, there was no discomfort.

 

The primary concerns late last week remain the same. Although Vector Pressure is again inclining, bullishly mature Force Vectors remain as a mild threat on a short-term basis. Their lateral moving behavior minimizes potential for this threat.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and one new bear.

 

Although VIX Near-term Green is rising, the Near-term Indicant signaled bear today for the VIX. Today’s volume was solidly in support of the bull and the stock market trend remains bullish. The tact is to not fight the trend.

 

The eleven non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 24.9%, annualizing at 55.3%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 23.4-weeks ago. The small cap index, S&P600, returned to Red Bull status with today’s bullish aggression, removing the bearish threat from late last week.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 18.7%, annualizing at 42.9%, since their bull signals an average of 22.7-weeks ago.

 

The lone QTI bear, VIX, is down 36.3% since its bear signal 30.6-weeks ago. VIX eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough bearish synergy late last week and today’s aggressive bullish expression muted bearish concerns.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      QTI-Red Bulls-A solid majority of ten support bullish bias.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend-Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting bullish bias.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve-Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.

      QIT-Yellow Bears-None of the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any bearish bias.

      NTI-Blue Bulls-There are eleven blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support. (four gained today).

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend-11-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend, including contrarian VIX.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve - Non-bearish minority with five of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend. Five shifted into bearish slope three weeks ago, increasing concerns about bearish aggression. Although that concern remains, it is now a minor one.

      STI-Force Vector-One non-contrarian moving north, which is down by ten from last Thursday. Force Vectors are “listing” to the right, as opposed to a sharply downward movement, suggesting the bear has been snuffed out with today’s bullish aggression.

      STI-Vector Pressure-Only contrarian VIX is in bullish trend and thus no pressure support for the stock market bull. This is deep inside bearish domains and the movement to date is passive.

      Short-term Summary-Overall-The high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.

 

-Tangential Protection Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

-Political Climate – Congress in session  is bearish, even though out of session this past week. Technical data continues overriding congressional bearishness with bullish attributes at this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats by the U.S. Senate and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return until the next major Congressional recess. However, recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia could accelerate this. However, technical data continues supporting the current bull. There are a few remnants of mild bearish bias, but now bordering minutiae.  The only concern is VIX’s rising NTI Green curve and its Force Vector still remains mildly supportive of VIX bullishness.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators  are becoming increasingly lethargic due, in part, to the holidays. Today’s bullish behavior was accompanied with significantly higher volume, suggesting increased support for the bull.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated nine buy signals and one sell signal.

 

In addition to the buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 19-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 26.5%, annualizing at 58.1%, since their buy signals an average of 23.8-weeks ago.

 

In addition to the sell signal, the NTI is avoiding three-ETF’s. They are up by an average of  4.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 3.0-weeks ago.

 

The formerly avoided ETF’s continue moving bullishly with declining and/or wavering Force Vectors prompted today’s buy signals. Set a relatively tight stop loss for these funds.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 24.7% since their buy signals an average of 24.5-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 52.5%. Although there were no sell signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 55.0% since its sell signal on Mar 26, 2009.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

29-NTI Blue Bulls; Strong bullish support with strong majority position.

28-NTI Blue Curves are sloping north, offering improved strong bullish support.

12-NTI Green Curves are sloping north, expressing minority support for non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This is now steadying following several days of weakening non-bearish support. A majority of 15 or more would be a bit more comfortable for those desiring continued bullishness.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

28-QTI Red Bulls represent a strong majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.

27-QTI Bullish Red Curves are sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

Zero-QTI Yellow Bears represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. Contrarian TLT and QID are the only yellow bears and thus non-threatening to the QTI Bull.

29-QTI Bearish yellow curves are sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness. Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

24-Force Vectors in bullish domains, which is non-bearish. However, they are mature and it is a bit threatening to the bull for bullishly mature Force Vectors with declining Vector Pressure.

Zero-Force Vectors are in bearish domains offering little bearish support.

Zero-Vector Pressures in bullish domains, offering no support for the bull.

29-Vector Pressures moving in bullish direction, which is a significant increase the past three days. This is offering additional bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these rising pressures.

 

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

 

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

 

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID today. The last buy signal disappointed, but short-term attributes still support its potential bullishness.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 55.0% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.64 and still falling.

 

ETF#03-Natural Resources   - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 13.2% since those buy signals, annualizing at 45.2%. This fund had been struggling, but bullish in 26-of the last 48-days. It has been strongly bullish in 18-of the last 31-days, following eight consecutive days of bearish behavior. As stated last Wednesday, bullish vitality, though, appears to be weakening.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 38.4% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 40.7%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $91.13 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 24.4% since then, annualizing at 42.7%.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. It is up 0.3% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish. Interestingly, this fund was not contrarian today, as it was mildly bullish on stock market aggressive bullishness.

 

Major ETF Events

Nov 16, 2009-Mon-Strong bullish behavior and laterally moving Force Vectors support bull.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 16, 2009-The bull reasserted its dominance. Force Vectors did not shift sharply south, suggesting the bull’s continued dominance. Some Near-term attributes are bordering in their support of the bear. This suggests potential for volatility, but the bull continues to express little interest in expiring.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

11/16/09

 

 

Nov 13, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 10 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

The Near-term Bull remains under assault by the stock market bear. However, the bull can withstand several daily assaults, as it remains strong. Skirmishes between bull and bear should be increasing over the next few days. Congress returning to work next week, coupled with pinnacled Force Vectors suggests a bearish edge early next week. Also, Friday’s bullish behavior was without breadth and with significantly low volume.

 

Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. An immediate question will be the comfort level of these newly configured Red Bulls. Discomfort will be inspirational to the bear.

 

The primary concerns at this time are declining Vector Pressure and the bullish energy consumed in positioning Force Vectors at their current position. Although the bull may become passive or possibly meander into bearish direction, it is still dominant. Early next week will offering greater obviations of stock market directional intensity.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

There are no Near-term bears among the major indices, including contrarian VIX. VIX’s aggressively bullish Force Vector has been followed by an equally bearish one. This suggests increasing volatility with a slight bias favoring VIX bullishness and stock market bearishness.

 

All twelve major indices are up by an average of 19.6%, annualizing at 48.0%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 21.3-weeks ago. These statistics include contrarian VIX. That will be temporary, as the VIX bull will expire or the major indices’ bulls will expire. Bull signals for both cannot exist too long. The S&P500 Index NTI bullish blue did not collapse in the late October bearish attacks, suggesting the bull remains adamant about its longevity. A burgeoning problem is the small cap index. It is the most vulnerable to bearish attacks and typically endures more punishment by the bear, just at is enjoys greater boosts by the bull. The large caps cannot be bullish without small cap participation and thus another reason for cautionary commentary.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 16.8%, annualizing at 39.3%, since their bull signals an average of 22.3-weeks ago.

 

The lone QTI bear, VIX, is down 34.8% since its bear signal 30.1-weeks ago. VIX eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying for a Quick-term Bull signal. A bit more bearish synergy from the other indices is required before the QTI will signal bull for VIX. The VIX Force Vector has now cooled and extremely so. The expected bullish bounce occurred last Thursday and it should continue for a few more days. Obviations of directional stock market intensity will be enhanced as a function of the bounce’s magnitude.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      QTI-Red Bulls-A majority of nine support bullish bias.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend-Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting bullish bias.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve-Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.

      QIT-Yellow Bears-None of the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any bearish bias.

      NTI-Blue Bulls-There are seven blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support. (three lost since last Wed).

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend-11-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend, including contrarian VIX.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve - Non-bearish minority with five of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend. Five shifted into bearish slope week before last, increasing concerns about bearish aggression.

      STI-Force Vector-Two non-contrarians moving north, which is down by nine from last Thursday. If their impending downward movement parallels market bearishness, the bear will gain momentum. Do not be surprised at some bearish intrusions in the next few days. You saw the beginning of a series of such intrusions last Thursday.

      STI-Vector Pressure-Only contrarian VIX is in bullish trend and thus no pressure support for the stock market bull.

      Short-term Summary-Overall-Although bearish threats remain, the high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.

 

-Tangential Protection Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb to significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

-Political Climate – Congress in session  is bearish, even though out of session this past week. Technical data continues overriding congressional bearishness with bullish attributes at this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats by the U.S. Senate and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return until the next major Congressional recess. However, recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia could accelerate this. However, technical data continues supporting the current bull with a mild bias favoring the bear to influence the stock market, but not destructively so.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators  are becoming increasingly lethargic due, in part, to the holidays. Today’s bullish behavior was accompanied with light volume, suggesting limited support for the bull. That contrast with yesterday’s heavier volume on bearish aggression.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 19-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 22.7%, annualizing at 53.1%, since their buy signals an average of 22.2-weeks ago. These hold signals include contrarian QID. It and most of the other ETF’s cannot maintain simultaneous holds for too long.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of  5.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 2.3-weeks ago. Most of these ETF’s are enduring bullishly mature Force Vectors and several are enduring negatively sloping NTI bearish green curves and/or below QTI Bullish Red. Thus the reason for continuing with bear signal. They remain vulnerable to bearish desires. If the bear executes on those desires, they will fall quicker and deeper than the others.

 

Time is nearing on this, as Force Vectors have pinnacled. If these avoided ETF’s continue moving bullishly with declining and/or wavering Force Vectors, then buy signals will ensue. This should occur early next week.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 22.4% since their buy signals an average of 24.0-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 48.4%. Although there were no sell signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 54.1% since its sell signal on Mar 26, 2009.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

20-NTI Blue Bulls; Strong bullish support with majority position.

27-NTI Blue Curves are sloping north, offering improved bullish support.

12-NTI Green Curves are sloping north, expressing minority support for non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This is weakening non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

21-QTI Red Bulls represent a improved majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness. As long as there is just one non-contrarian Red Bull, the bear cannot dominate with deep sustainability.

27-QTI Bullish Red Curves are sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

2-QTI Yellow Bears represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. Contrarian TLT and QID are the only yellow bears and thus non-threatening to the QTI Bull.

29-QTI Bearish yellow curves are sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness. Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

28-Force Vectors in bullish domains, which is non-bearish. However, they are mature and it is a bit threatening to the bull for bullishly mature Force Vectors with declining Vector Pressure.

Zero-Force Vectors are in bearish domains. As stated last Thursday, the bull’s response did not reverse the bearishly mature Force Vectors. The bull has a bit more opportunity to fix this problem, but has been weakened by not doing it sooner. Force Vectors are now beginning to interact with Vector Pressure and appear configured to be weak in doing so. This could motivate the bear.

Zero-Vector Pressures in bullish domains, offering no support for the bull.

29-Vector Pressures moving in bullish direction, which is a significant increase the past two days. This is offering additional bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these rising pressures.

 

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

 

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

 

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for QID on Oct 28, 2009. It is down 12.2% since that buy signal. Configurations remain in support of this bull signal. Keep in mind, though, as long as QQQQ is enjoying a hold signal, the QID hold is a bit precarious.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 54.1% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.74 and still falling.

 

ETF#03-Natural Resources   - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 10.3% since those buy signals, annualizing at 36.4%. This fund had been struggling, but bullish in 25-of the last 47-days. It has been strongly bullish in 17-of the last 30-days, following eight consecutive days of bearish behavior. As stated last Wednesday, bullish vitality, though, appears to be weakening.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 36.1% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 38.5%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $91.04 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 22.3% since then, annualizing at 39.6%.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. It is down 0.9% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish. However, the stock market remains under attack by the bear. The weakening dollar has not been friendly to this ETF.

 

Major ETF Events

Nov 13, 2009-Fri-Although the stock market was mildly bullish today, there was little breadth. Most Force Vectors pinnacled and they will be moving south early next week. If stock prices do not parallel this southerly movement, the bull will continue its dominance and move on to new cyclical highs. Odds favor, however, an increased bearish influence, but nowhere threatening the bull’s longevity.

Nov 12, 2009-Thu-Bearish behavior is coinciding with maturing Force Vectors.

Nov 11, 2009-Wed-Several ETF Vector Pressures shifted from bearish to bullish direction today. If this holds up through the next few days, the avoid signals will be removed with buy signals for several ETF’s.

Nov 10, 2009-Tue-There were no major events today. However, bullishly maturing Foce Vectors with declining Vector Pressure is a bit discerning.

Nov 9, 2009-Mon-Force Vectors for major indices and ETF’s crossed above Vector Pressure today. These Force Vectors are bullishly mature and with minimal battle energy to fend off additional attacks by the bear.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 13, 2009-Pinnacling Force Vectors will elucidate the stock market’s directional intensity early next week. Congress returns to work next Monday. That gives the bear an advantage, but keep in mind this bull is a thoroughbred and capable of surviving bear attacks. Nov 12, 2009-Bear demonstrated interest today and should gain some momentum over the next few days. Nov 11, 2009-If bear continues hibernation, the bull should regain aggression, but bullish mature Force Vectors continue suggesting the bear will wake up on the immediate horizon. Nov 10, 2009-Bullishly mature Force Vectors should invite bearish expressions. Keep in mind the bull is still a “the bull” but it is never straight up. Bearish attacks are imminent. Nov 9, 2009-Bull remains in tact, but bullish energy is sapped on a near-term basis. Meandering behavior would be a nice substitute to bearish aggression. Several near-term, quick-term, and short-term attributes are currently aligned against sustainable bearish aggression. There are also several near-term attributes increasingly non-supportive of the bull, but nowhere near identifying expiration of the bull.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

11/13/09

 

 

Nov 12, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 09 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

The Near-term Bull remains under assault by the stock market bear. However, the bull can withstand several daily assaults as it remains strong. Skirmishes between bull and bear should be increasing over the next few days.

 

Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. An immediate question will be the comfort level of these newly configured Red Bulls. Discomfort will be inspirational to the bear.

 

The primary concerns at this time are declining Vector Pressure and the bullish energy consumed in positioning Force Vectors at their current position. Although the bull may become passive or possibly meander into bearish direction, it is still dominant.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

There are no Near-term bears among the major indices, including contrarian VIX. VIX’s aggressively bullish Force Vector has been followed by a nearly equal bearish aggression. Configurations suggests a bullish VIX bounce is imminent. That occurred today and that bounce is not complete.

 

All twelve major indices are up by an average of 19.0%, annualizing at 46.9%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 21.1-weeks ago. These statistics include contrarian VIX. That will be temporary, as the VIX bull will expire or the major indices’ bulls will expire. Bull signals for both cannot exist too long. The S&P500 Index NTI bullish blue did not collapse in the bearish attacks, suggesting the bull remains adamant about its longevity. A burgeoning problem is the small cap index. It is the most vulnerable to bearish attacks and typically endures more punishment by the bear. The large caps cannot be bullish without small cap participation and thus another reason for cautionary commentary.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 15.9%, annualizing at 37.5%, since their bull signals an average of 22.1-weeks ago.

 

The lone QTI bear, VIX, is down 32.4% since its bear signal 30.0-weeks ago. VIX eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying for a Quick-term Bull signal. A bit more bearish synergy from the other indices is required before the QTI will signal bull for VIX. The VIX Force Vector has now cooled and extremely so. The expected bullish bounce occurred today and it should continue for a few more days. Obviations of directional stock market intensity will be enhanced as a function of the bounce’s magnitude.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      QTI-Red Bulls-A majority of nine support bullish bias.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend-Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting bullish bias.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve-Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.

      QIT-Yellow Bears-None of the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any bearish bias.

      NTI-Blue Bulls-There are six blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support. (Four lost today).

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend-11-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend, including contrarian VIX.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve - Non-bearish minority with four of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend. Five shifted into bearish slope last week, increasing concerns about bearish aggression.

      STI-Force Vector-Eleven non-contrarians moving north, offering some bullish resistance to the bear. However, they are now mature and used significant energy. Do not be surprised at some bearish intrusions in the next few days. You saw the beginning of a series of such intrusions today.

      STI-Vector Pressure-Only contrarian VIX is in bullish trend and thus no pressure support for the stock market bull.

      Short-term Summary-Overall-Although bearish threats remain, the high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.

 

-Tangential Protection Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb to significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

-Political Climate – Congress in session  is bearish, but technical data is overriding at this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats by the U.S. Senate and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return until the next Congressional recess. However, recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia could accelerate this. However, technical data continues with a mild bias favoring the bear.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators shifted back to the south, suggesting the potential for a lethargic cycle. Today’s bearish aggression was accompanied with mixed volume. NASDAQ volume was a bit more supportive of the bear, while the Big Board yawned. That combination suggests increased bearish support.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 19-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 21.6%, annualizing at 50.9%, since their buy signals an average of 22.1-weeks ago. These hold signals include contrarian QID. It and most of the other ETF’s cannot maintain simultaneous holds for too long.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of  4.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 2.1-weeks ago. Most of these ETF’s are enduring bullishly mature Force Vectors and several are enduring negatively sloping NTI bearish green curves and/or below QTI Bullish Red. Thus the reason for continuing with bear signal. They remain vulnerable to bearish desires. If the bear executes on those desires, they will fall quicker and deeper than the others.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 21.3% since their buy signals an average of 23.9-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 46.4%. Although there were no sell signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 53.3% since its sell signal on Mar 26, 2009.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

15-NTI Blue Bulls; Strong bullish support with majority position.

28-NTI Blue Curves are sloping north, offering improved bullish support.

12-NTI Green Curves are sloping north, expressing minority support for non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This is weakening non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

22-QTI Red Bulls represent a improved majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness. As long as there is just one non-contrarian Red Bull, the bear cannot dominate with deep sustainability.

27-QTI Bullish Red Curves are sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

2-QTI Yellow Bears represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. Contrarian TLT and QID are the only yellow bears and thus non-threatening to the QTI Bull.

29-QTI Bearish yellow curves are sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness. Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

27-Force Vectors in bullish domains, which is non-bearish. However, they are mature and it is a bit threatening to the bull for bullishly mature Force Vectors with declining Vector Pressure.

Zero-Force Vectors are in bearish domains. As stated last Thursday, the bull’s response did not reverse the bearishly mature Force Vectors. The bull has a bit more opportunity to fix this problem, but has been weakened by not doing it sooner. Force Vectors are now beginning to interact with Vector Pressure and appear configured to be weak in doing so. This could motivate the bear.

Zero-Vector Pressures in bullish domains, offering no support for the bull.

29-Vector Pressures moving in bullish direction, which is a significant increase the past two days. This is offering additional bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these rising pressures.

 

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

 

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

 

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for QID on Oct 28, 2009. It is down 10.6% since that buy signal. Configurations remain in support of this bull signal. Keep in mind as long as QQQQ is enjoying a hold signal, the QID hold is a bit precarious.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 53.8% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.84 and still falling.

 

ETF#03-Natural Resources   - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 9.6% since those buy signals, annualizing at 34.3%. This fund had been struggling, but bullish in 24-of the last 46-days. It has been strongly bullish in 16-of the last 29-days, following eight consecutive days of bearish behavior. As stated yesterday, bullish vitality, though, appears to be weakening.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 34.2% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 36.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $90.94 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 20.6% since then, annualizing at 36.7%.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. It is down 1.3% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish. However, the stock market remains under attack by the bear. The weakening dollar has not been friendly to this ETF.

 

Major ETF Events

Nov 12, 2009-Thu-Bearish behavior is coinciding with maturing Force Vectors.

Nov 11, 2009-Wed-Several ETF Vector Pressures shifted from bearish to bullish direction today. If this holds up through the next few days, the avoid signals will be removed with buy signals for several ETF’s.

Nov 10, 2009-Tue-There were no major events today. However, bullishly maturing Foce Vectors with declining Vector Pressure is a bit discerning.

Nov 9, 2009-Mon-Force Vectors for major indices and ETF’s crossed above Vector Pressure today. These Force Vectors are bullishly mature and with minimal battle energy to fend off additional attacks by the bear.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 12, 2009-Bear demonstrated interest today and should gain some momentum over the next few days. Nov 11, 2009-If bear continues hibernation, the bull should regain aggression, but bullish mature Force Vectors continue suggesting the bear will wake up on the immediate horizon. Nov 10, 2009-Bullishly mature Force Vectors should invite bearish expressions. Keep in mind the bull is still a “the bull” but it is never straight up. Bearish attacks are imminent. Nov 9, 2009-Bull remains in tact, but bullish energy is sapped on a near-term basis. Meandering behavior would be a nice substitute to bearish aggression. Several near-term, quick-term, and short-term attributes are currently aligned against sustainable bearish aggression. There are also several near-term attributes increasingly non-supportive of the bull, but nowhere near identifying expiration of the bull.

 

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

 

Happy Investing,

 

 

Indicant.Net

www.indicant.net

11/12/09

 

 

 

Nov 11, 2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 08 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST

© The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Today's Report

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

The Near-term Bull remains under assault by the stock market bear. However, the bull can withstand several daily assaults as it remains strong. Skirmishes between bull and bear should be increasing over the next few days.

 

Quick-term Red Bulls are remain in majority and thus protective against dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. An immediate question will be the comfort level of these newly configured Red Bull. Discomfort will be inspirational to the bear.

 

The primary concerns at this time are declining Vector Pressure and the bullish energy consumed in positioning Force Vectors at their current position. Although the bull may become passive or possibly meander into bearish direction, it is still dominant.

 

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

There are no Near-term bears among the major indices, including contrarian VIX. VIX’s aggressively bullish Force Vector has been followed by a nearly equal bearish aggression. Configurations suggests a bullish VIX bounce is imminent. It is unlikely to continue bearishness after Force Vector penetrates its bullishly sloping Vector Pressure. If VIX falls below NTI Green, Force Vectors will likely disfigure, which typically leads to a continuation of the last prevailing cycle. In this case that would mean a bearish VIX and bullish stock market. Time is nearing for finality. Obviations of directional intensity should occur before the end of this week.

 

All twelve major indices are up by an average of 20.0%, annualizing at 49.6%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 21.0-weeks ago. These statistics include contrarian VIX. That will be temporary, as the VIX bull will expire or the major indices’ bulls will expire. Bull signals for both cannot exist too long. The S&P500 Index NTI bullish blue did not collapse in the bearish attacks, suggesting the bull remains adamant about its longevity. A burgeoning problem is the small cap index. Although bullish today, it is the most vulnerable to bearish attacks. The large caps cannot be bullish without small cap participation and thus another reason for cautionary commentary.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 17.3%, annualizing at 40.9%, since their bull signals an average of 22.0-weeks ago.

 

The lone QTI bear, VIX, is down 35.7% since its bear signal 29.9-weeks ago. VIX eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying for a Quick-term Bull signal. A bit more bearish synergy from the other indices is required before the QTI will signal bull for VIX. The VIX Force Vector has now cooled and extremely so. There should be a bullish bounce for the VIX in a day or two. Obviations of directional stock market intensity will be enhanced depending on the nature of this impending VIX bounce.

 

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes (Includes Near-term and Quick-term)

      QTI-Red Bulls-A majority of ten support bullish bias.

      QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend-Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend, supporting bullish bias.

      QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve-Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.

      QIT-Yellow Bears-None of the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any bearish bias.

      NTI-Blue Bulls-There are ten blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support.

      NTI-Bullish Blue Curve Trend-12-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend, including contrarian VIX.

      NTI-Bearish Green Curve - Non-bearish minority with four of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend. Five shifted into bearish slope last week, increasing concerns about bearish aggression.

      STI-Force Vector-Eleven non-contrarians moving north, offering some bullish resistance to the bear. However, they are now mature and used significant energy. Do not be surprised at some bearish intrusions in the next few days.

      STI-Vector Pressure-Only contrarian VIX is in bullish trend and thus no pressure support for the stock market bull.

      Short-term Summary-Overall-Although bearish threats remain, the high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.

 

-Tangential Protection Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb to significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

-Political Climate – Congress in session  is bearish, but technical data is overriding at this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats by the U.S. Senate and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return until the next Congressional recess. However, recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia could accelerate this. However, technical data continues with a mild bias favoring the bear.

 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators shifted back to the south, suggesting the potential for a lethargic cycle. Today’s mild bullish behavior was accompanied with depressed volume again biasing in favor of little interest in dynamic behavior in either direction.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 19-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 23.0%, annualizing at 54.6%, since their buy signals an average of 21.9-weeks ago. These hold signals include contrarian QID. It and most of the other ETF’s cannot maintain simultaneous holds for too long. QID has disappointed the last five days, which suggest stronger buying considerations. Its downward price movement is muted since it is very low priced.

 

Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of  6.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 2.0-weeks ago. Most of these ETF’s are enduring bullishly mature Force Vectors and several are enduring negatively sloping NTI bearish green curves and/or below QTI Bullish Red. Thus the reason for continuing with bear signal. They remain vulnerable to bearish desires. If the bear executes on those desires, they will fall quicker and deeper than the others.

 

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 22.9% since their buy signals an average of 23.7-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 50.2%. Although there were no sell signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 53.8% since its sell signal on Mar 26, 2009.

 

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

24-NTI Blue Bulls; Strong bullish support with majority position.

29-NTI Blue Curves are sloping north, offering improved bullish support.

12-NTI Green Curves are sloping north, expressing minority support for non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This is weakening non-bearish support.

 

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

25-QTI Red Bulls represent a improved majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness. As long as there is just one non-contrarian Red Bull, the bear cannot dominate with deep sustainability.

28-QTI Bullish Red Curves are sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

2-QTI Yellow Bears represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness. Contrarian TLT and QID are the only yellow bears and thus non-threatening to the QTI Bull.

29-QTI Bearish yellow curves are sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness. Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.

 

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

27-Force Vectors in bullish domains, which is non-bearish. However, they are mature and it is a bit threatening to the bull for bullishly mature Force Vectors with declining Vector Pressure.

Zero-Force Vectors are in bearish domains. As stated last Thursday, the bull’s response did not reverse the bearishly mature Force Vectors. The bull has a bit more opportunity to fix this problem, but has been weakened by not doing it sooner. Force Vectors are now beginning to interact with Vector Pressure and appear configured to be weak in doing so. This could motivate the bear.

Zero-Vector Pressures in bullish domains, offering no support for the bull.

24-Vector Pressures moving in bullish direction, which is a significant increase from yesterday. This is offering additional bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of this rising pressures.

 

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

 

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

 

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for QID on Oct 28, 2009. It is down 11.6% since that buy signal. Configurations remain in support of this bull signal. Keep in mind as long as QQQQ is enjoying a hold signal, the QID hold is a bit precarious.

 

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 53.8% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.94 and still falling.

 

ETF#03-Natural Resources   - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 12.1% since those buy signals, annualizing at 43.5%. This fund had been struggling, but bullish in 24-of the last 45-days. It has been strongly bullish in 16-of the last 28-days, following eight consecutive days of bearish behavior. Bullish vitality, though, appears to be weakening.

 

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals  is up 35.9% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 38.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $90.84 and still rising.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 22.2% since then, annualizing at 39.7%.

 

As stated for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding.  The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

 

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government  received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. It is down 1.1% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish. However, the stock market remains under attack by the bear. The weakening dollar has not been friendly to this ETF.

 

Major ETF Events

Nov 11, 2009-Wed-Several ETF Vector Pressures shifted from bearish to bullish direction today. If this holds up through the next few days, the avoid signals will be removed with buy signals for several ETF’s.

Nov 10, 2009-Tue-There were no major events today. However, bullishly maturing Foce Vectors with declining Vector Pressure is a bit discerning.

Nov 9, 2009-Mon-Force Vectors for major indices and ETF’s crossed above Vector Pressure today. These Force Vectors are bullishly mature and with minimal battle energy to fend off additional attacks by the bear.

 

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-