Nov 30,
2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
21 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Vector Pressure shifted back to the south last Friday. That should
incentivize the bear a bit. Keep your eyes on the Near-term Bearish Green
curve. It is still rising for most of the major stock market indices and
non-contrarian ETF’s. That offers a point of bearish resistance. Until the
major stock market indices and non-contrarian ETF’s interact with the NTI
Bearish Green curve, the bull will remain in tact.
As
stated last Friday, Dubai’s threatened loan default, alone, is not enough
to send the stock market into a long sustainable bearish cycle. However,
if prices fall below green, then reasons are become irrelevant as the
direction becomes the only relevance. There is no need to worry until
prices interact with green, which has been a solid buffering point to
bearish ambition since last March. Simply wait for this interaction.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
All twelve
major indices, including contrarian VIX, are up by an average of 20.5%,
annualizing at 45.7%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 23.3-weeks
ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Although
there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull
for 11-major indices. They are up 16.4%, annualizing at 34.6%, since their
bull signals an average of 24.7-weeks ago.
The lone QTI
bear, VIX, is down 31.4% since its bear signal 32.6-weeks ago. VIX
eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying
for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough
bearish synergy to support a VIX bull signal. Since then, the VIX
weakened, but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for
future aggression. You saw some of that aggression on Friday, November 27,
2009. The Quick-term needs to see a bit more bearish energy from the major
indices before the Quick-term Indicant will signal bull for VIX and bear
for the overall stock market. The near-term bull signal will quickly shift
if its Force Vector dips back to the south.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
QTI-Red Bull Count; A majority of nine support bullish bias.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend,
supporting bullish bias.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without
any bearish bias.
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Four,
offering humble minority support for the NTI Bull.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve
Trend;11-non-contrarian in bullish trend. VIX also in bullish trend.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend -
Non-bearish majority with ten of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend, supporting near-term non-bearishness. VIX also with bullish trend.
STI-Force Vector Cyclical
Direction-Two non-contrarian moving north. New bull cycle forming and for
those not yet shifted are bearishly mature, offering a slight edge to the
bull.
STI-Vector Pressure
Trend-Minority of only one moving bullishly, offering limited
non-bearishness.
Short-term Summary-Overall-Vector
Pressure is no longer offering short-term bullish protection, while the
high number of Red Bulls are guarding against sustainable bearish
aggression. So, there is little evidence of a major shift in directional
intensity, which is bullish.
-Tangential Protection –
Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed
for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index
lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices
will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those
tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive
bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively
sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all
indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal. Since last March, the bull
has responded when attributes neared bear signal justifications.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
-
Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following
observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100%
confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the
below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until
you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as
the bearish yellow or green curves. The stock market can climb by
significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).
-Political Climate
– The Senate’s preliminary passage of healthcare is a bit bearish. Dubai
is threatening loan defaults is responsible for Friday’s bearish
aggression. Congress will be returning to work and that will add to some
bearish incentives.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on
political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There
always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes
are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue
dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
The NYSE and NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators
lethargic
configuration is now slowing. A robust configuration will not be
surprising in the next few days, but some portions will be due seasonal
volumes. The charts are not seasonally adjusted. Today’s mild bullish
behavior was accompanied with mild volume, suggesting little interest in
trend or cyclical shifts in directional intensity, which remains bullish.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
Although
there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 14.8%, annualizing at 46.2%, since
their buy signals an average of 16.6-weeks ago.
Although
there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four-ETF’s. They are up by
an average of 3.3% since their sell signals an average of 3.4-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 22.8% since their buy signals an average of 26.3-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 45.0%.
Although
there were no sell signals, the two avoided ETF’s are down by an average
of 24.9% since their sell signals an average of 18.6-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bulls Count; minority of eight offering limited bullish support.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 28-sloping north; strong bullish support.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; 28-sloping north; strong majority support for
non-bearishness. The bear cannot dominate with this attribute.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 22-represent a majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term
bullishness.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness.
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
Force Vector
Bullish Domain Occupancy; Three in bullish domains, which is mildly
non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus
non-threatening to the bull in spite of last Friday’s bearish aggression
and threatening loan defaults by Dubai.
Force
Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; 25 in bearish domains offering bear
additional encouragement.
Vector
Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild
support for the bull.
Vector
Pressure Trend; minority of six moving in bullish direction, offering
limited bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction
will be muted as a result of these rising pressures with current
configurations.
Short-term
Summary: Most attributes remain non-bearish.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds
as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by
double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell
in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each
weekend with a link to the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in
several months.
Click the
below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant
signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the
model’s position on each ETF.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Contrarian Funds
ProFunds Ultra Short
mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the
Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 3.9% since that sell signal.
It remains configured for potential “short-term bullishness” but
significantly more overall stock market bearish synergy is required to
signal buy for this fund and QQQQ must demonstrate some additional
interest in bearish behavior.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
53.3% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $29.75 and still
falling.
ETF#03-Natural Resources
- The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009.
It is up 9.4% since those buy signals, annualizing at 28.6%.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 43.4%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
44.1%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $92.34 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 28.9% since
then, annualizing at 47.3%.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant. It is up 2.0% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for
this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.
You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences, while
also not being motivated by its potential bullish desires.
Major ETF Events
Nov
30, 2009-Mon – There were no major events.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 30, 2009-Attributes remain
non-bearish. Unfortunately, many attributes are not bullishly supportive.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
11/30/09
Nov 27,
2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
20 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Vector Pressure shifted back to the south today. That should incentivize
the bear a bit. Keep your eyes on the Near-term Bearish Green curve. It is
still rising for most of the major stock market indices and non-contrarian
ETF’s. That offers a point of bearish resistance. Until the major stock
market indices and non-contrarian ETF’s interact with the NTI Bearish
Green curve, the bull will remain in tact. Dubai’s threatened loan
default, alone, is not enough to send the stock market into a long
sustainable bearish cycle. However, if prices fall below green, then the
reasons are basically irrelevant as the direction becomes the only
relevance. There is no need to worry until prices interact with green,
which has been a solid buffering point to bearish ambition since last
March. Simply wait for this interaction.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled one new bull and no new bears.
The eleven
non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 22.0%, annualizing at
45.7%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 25.0-weeks ago. A bull
signal was generated for the VIX.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Although
there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull
for 11-major indices. They are up 16.0%, annualizing at 34.3%, since their
bull signals an average of 24.3-weeks ago.
The lone QTI
bear, VIX, is down 31.0% since its bear signal 32.1-weeks ago. VIX
eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying
for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough
bearish synergy to support a VIX bull signal. Since then, the VIX
weakened, but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for
future aggression. You saw some of that aggression on Friday, November 27,
2009. The Quick-term needs to see a bit more bearish energy from the major
indices before the Quick-term Indicant will signal bull for VIX and bear
for the overall stock market.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
QTI-Red Bull Count; A majority of nine support bullish bias.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend,
supporting bullish bias.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without
any bearish bias.
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Most lost on
today’s bearish aggression and thus no bullish support.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve
Trend;11-non-contrarian in bullish trend. VIX blue collapsed last Monday.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend -
Non-bearish majority with ten of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend, supporting near-term non-bearishness.
STI-Force Vector Cyclical
Direction-One non-contrarian moving north. Bear cycle relatively mature,
suggesting limited exposure to an ambitious bear.
STI-Vector Pressure
Trend-Minority of only one moving bullishly, offering limited
non-bearishness.
Short-term Summary-Overall-Vector
Pressure is no longer offering short-term bullish protection, while the
high number of Red Bulls are guarding against sustainable bearish
aggression.
-Tangential Protection –
Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed
for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index
lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices
will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those
tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive
bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively
sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all
indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal. Since last March, the bull
has responded when attributes neared bear signal justifications.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
-
Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following
observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100%
confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the
below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until
you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as
the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant
magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).
-Political Climate
– The Senate’s preliminary passage of healthcare is a bit bearish. Dubai
is threatening loan defaults is responsible for Friday’s bearish
aggression. Congress will be returning to work and that will add to some
bearish incentives.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on
political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There
always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes
are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue
dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
The NYSE and NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators
continue
moving lethargically and at an accelerating pace. Much of this is due to
holiday seasonality. Last Monday’s aggressive bullish behavior was
accompanied with flat volume, but relatively high when adjusted for
seasonality. Tuesday’s volume was mild on mild bearishness, suggesting
little interest in shifting directional intensity. Wednesday’s volume
suggests Wall Street workers do not need any overtime as it was
exceptionally light; even for holiday adjustments. Friday’s volume was
light on aggressive bearish behavior.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
Although
there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 14.2%, annualizing at 45.6%, since
their buy signals an average of 16.2-weeks ago.
Although
there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four-ETF’s. They are up by
an average of 2.1% since their sell signals an average of 3.0-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 22.1% since their buy signals an average of 25.9-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 44.4%.
Although
there were no sell signals, the two avoided ETF’s are down by an average
of 25.9% since their sell signals an average of 18.1-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bulls Count; minority of six offering limited bullish support.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 28-sloping north; strong bullish support.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; 28-sloping north; strong majority support for
non-bearishness. The bear cannot dominate with this attribute.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 28-represent a majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term
bullishness.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness.
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness.
Lost one non-contrarian last Thursday.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
Force Vector
Bullish Domain Occupancy; Four in bullish domains, which is mildly
non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus
non-threatening to the bull in spite of Friday’s bearish aggression and
threatening loan defaults by Dubai.
Force
Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; 24 in bearish domains offering bear
additional encouragement.
Vector
Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild
support for the bull.
Vector
Pressure Trend; minority of seven moving in bullish direction, offering
limited bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction
will be muted as a result of these rising pressures with current
configurations.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds
as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by
double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell
in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each
weekend with a link to the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in
several months.
Click the
below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant
signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the
model’s position on each ETF.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Contrarian Funds
ProFunds Ultra Short
mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the
Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 4.0% since that sell signal.
It remains configured for potential “short-term bullishness” but
significantly more overall stock market bearish synergy is required to
signal buy for this fund and QQQQ must demonstrate some additional
interest in bearish behavior.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
53.2% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $29.84 and still
falling.
ETF#03-Natural Resources
- The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009.
It is up 9.8% since those buy signals, annualizing at 30.5%.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 42.7%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
43.8%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $92.18 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 28.2% since
then, annualizing at 46.9%.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant. It is up 1.8% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for
this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.
You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences, while
also not being motivated by its potential bullish desires.
Major ETF Events
Nov
26, 2009-Most Vector Pressures shifted back to the south today, offering
the bear a bit more encouragement. However, in spite of Dubai’s threatened
defaults on loan payments, the bull remains in tact.
Nov
25, 2009-Six ETF Short-term Vector Pressures shifted back to the south.
The gain in two Near-term Blue Bulls is somewhat offsetting.
Nov
24, 2009-One non-contrarian’s QTI Bearish Yellow Curve shifted to bearish
slope today. This is minor, relative to overall stock market, it is worthy
of mention, since this is the first time this occurred since last
February.
Nov
23, 2009-VIX Near-term Blue Curve collapsed today. That suggests little
VIX bullish interest on the immediate horizon, which is non-bearish for
the overall stock market.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 27, 2009-Although bullish pressure
decreased considerably, rising NTI green curves offer bearish resistance
and thus no need to panic. Nov 24, 2009-Same as yesterday; most attributes
are non-bearish. Nov 23, 2009-Most of the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant attributes continue holding bullish configurations.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
11/27/09
Nov 25,
2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
19 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against
dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. Near-term Green curves at the other
extreme are improving in their bullish support.
Most Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term attributes remain non-bearish.
There is some concern the bounce off the Near-term Green curve has been
weak, so far. Nevertheless, though, Near-term attributes remain
non-bearish in spite of this weak bullish behavior.
The
stock market responded, bullishly, to healthier economic data last Monday,
overriding bearish potential from healthcare legislation. The bull could
climb this wall of worry in the hopes of legislative rescission by the
next Congress in the event the current Congress actually passes healthcare
proposals into law. This is fundamental and more or less will have secular
implications in the event of passage.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The eleven
non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 24.1%, annualizing at
50.8%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 24.7-weeks ago. The lone
avoid signal (VIX) is down 10.2% since the bear signal 1.3-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Although
there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull
for 11-major indices. They are up 18.0%, annualizing at 39.1%, since their
bull signals an average of 24.0-weeks ago.
The lone QTI
bear, VIX, is down 42.8% since its bear signal 31.9-weeks ago. VIX
eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying
for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough
bearish synergy to support a VIX bull signal. Since then, the VIX
weakened, but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for
future aggression.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
QTI-Red Bull Count; A solid majority of ten support bullish bias.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend,
supporting bullish bias.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without
any bearish bias.
NTI-Blue Bull Count; Majority of
nine blue bulls, supporting NTI Bull.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve
Trend;11-non-contrarian in bullish trend. VIX blue collapsed last Monday.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend -
Non-bearish majority with ten of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend, supporting near-term non-bearishness.
STI-Force Vector Cyclical
Direction-One non-contrarian moving north. Bear cycle relatively mature,
suggesting limited exposure to an ambitious bear.
STI-Vector Pressure
Trend-Minority of two moving bullishly, suggesting mild non-bearishness.
Short-term Summary-Overall-Vector
Pressure is the primary short-term bullish protecting attribute, while the
high number of Red Bulls are guarding against sustainable bearish
aggression.
-Tangential Protection –
Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed
for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index
lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices
will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those
tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive
bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively
sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all
indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal. Since last March, the bull
has responded when attributes neared bear signal justifications.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
-
Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following
observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100%
confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the
below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until
you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as
the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant
magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).
-Political Climate
– The Senate preliminarily passed healthcare legislation last Saturday
night. However, Congress is now in recess, which is non-bearish.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on
political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There
always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes
are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue
dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors.
The NYSE and NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators
continue
moving lethargically and at an accelerating pace. Much of this is due to
holiday seasonality. Last Monday’s aggressive bullish behavior was
accompanied with flat volume, but relatively high when adjusted for
seasonality. Yesterday’s volume was mild on mild bearishness, suggesting
little interest in shifting directional intensity. Today’s volume suggests
Wall Street workers do not need any overtime as it was exceptionally
light; even for holiday adjustments.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
Although
there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 16.6%, annualizing at 54.2%, since
their buy signals an average of 15.9-weeks ago.
Although
there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four-ETF’s. They are up by
an average of 2.6% since their sell signals an average of 2.7-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 24.7% since their buy signals an average of 25.6-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 50.1%.
Although
there were no sell signals, the two avoided ETF’s are down by an average
of 26.1% since their sell signals an average of 17.9-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bulls Count; majority of 18-offering bullish support.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 28-sloping north; strong bullish support.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; 23-sloping north; strong majority support for
non-bearishness. The bear cannot dominate with this attribute.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 22-represent a solid majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term
bullishness.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness.
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness.
Lost one non-contrarian today.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
Force Vector
Bullish Domain Occupancy; Four in bullish domains, which is mildly
non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus
non-threatening to the bull.
Force
Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; one in bearish domains offering bear
minimal encouragement.
Vector
Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild
support for the bull.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 18-moving in bullish direction, offering bullish support.
Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of
these rising pressures.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds
as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by
double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell
in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each
weekend with a link to the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in
several months.
Click the
below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant
signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the
model’s position on each ETF.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Contrarian Funds
ProFunds Ultra Short
mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the
Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 1.1% since that sell signal.
It remains configured for potential “short-term bullishness” but
significant more overall stock market bearish synergy is required to
signal buy for this fund and QQQQ must demonstrate some additional
interest in bearish behavior.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
54.5% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $29.94 and still
falling.
ETF#03-Natural Resources
- The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009.
It is up 11.9% since those buy signals, annualizing at 37.6%.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 44.6%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
46.0%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $92.03 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 30.0% since
then, annualizing at 50.2%.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant. It is up 1.4% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for
this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.
You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences, while
also not being motivated by its potential bullish desires.
Major ETF Events
Nov
25, 2009-Six ETF Short-term Vector Pressures shifted back to the south.
The gain in two Near-term Blue Bulls is somewhat offsetting.
Nov
24, 2009-One non-contrarian’s QTI Bearish Yellow Curve shifted to bearish
slope today. This is minor, relative to overall stock market, it is worthy
of mention, since this is the first time this occurred since last
February.
Nov
23, 2009-VIX Near-term Blue Curve collapsed today. That suggests little
VIX bullish interest on the immediate horizon, which is non-bearish for
the overall stock market.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 24, 2009-Same as yesterday; most
attributes are non-bearish. Nov 23, 2009-Most of the Near-term and
Quick-term Indicant attributes continue holding bullish configurations.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
11/25/09
Nov 24,
2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
18 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against
dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. Near-term Green curves at the other
extreme are improving in their bullish support.
Most Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term attributes remain non-bearish.
The
stock market responded, bullishly, to healthier economic data yesterday,
overriding bearish potential from healthcare legislation. The bull could
climb this wall of worry in the hopes of legislative rescission by the
next Congress in the event the current Congress actually passes healthcare
proposals into law. This is fundamental and more or less will have secular
implications in the event of passage.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The eleven
non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 23.6%, annualizing at
49.9%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 24.6-weeks ago. The lone
avoid signal (VIX) is down 10.5% since the bear signal 1.1-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Although
there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull
for 11-major indices. They are up 17.5%, annualizing at 38.2%, since their
bull signals an average of 23.8-weeks ago.
The lone QTI
bear, VIX, is down 43.0% since its bear signal 31.7-weeks ago. VIX
eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying
for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough
bearish synergy to support a VIX bull signal. Since then, the VIX
weakened, but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for
future aggression.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
QTI-Red Bull Count; A solid majority of ten support bullish bias.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend,
supporting bullish bias.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without
any bearish bias.
NTI-Blue Bull Count; There are
seven blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve
Trend;11-non-contrarian in bullish trend. VIX blue collapsed yesterday.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend -
Non-bearish minority with nine of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend.
STI-Force Vector Cyclical
Direction-Zero non-contrarian moving north. Force Vectors are interacting
with Vector Pressure, suggesting increased directional intensity in either
direction.
STI-Vector Pressure
Trend-Majority of six moving bullishly, supporting Short-term bullish
bias.
Short-term Summary-Overall-Vector
Pressure is the primary short-term bullish protecting attribute, while the
high number of Red Bulls are guarding against sustainable bearish
aggression.
-Tangential Protection –
Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed
for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index
lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices
will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those
tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive
bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively
sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all
indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal. Since last March, the bull
has responded when attributes neared bear signal justifications.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
-
Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following
observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100%
confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the
below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until
you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as
the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant
magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).
-Political Climate
– The Senate preliminarily passed healthcare legislation last Saturday
night. However, Congress is now in recess, which is non-bearish.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on
political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There
always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes
are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue
dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they
evolve.
The NYSE and NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators
continue
moving lethargically. Much of this is due to holiday seasonality.
Yesterday’s aggressive bullish behavior was supported with flat volume,
but relatively high when adjusted for seasonality. Today’s volume was mild
on mild bearishness, suggesting little interest in shifting directional
intensity.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
Although
there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 15.8%, annualizing at 52.2%, since
their buy signals an average of 15.8-weeks ago.
Although
there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four-ETF’s. They are up by
an average of 2.2% since their sell signals an average of 2.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 23.9% since their buy signals an average of 25.5-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 48.8%.
Although
there were no sell signals, the two avoided ETF’s are down by an average
of 23.9% since their sell signals an average of 17.7-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bulls Count; 16-bullish support.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 28-sloping north; strong bullish support.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; 20-sloping north; strong majority support for
non-bearishness. The bear cannot dominate with this attribute.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 23-represent a solid majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term
bullishness.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness.
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness.
Lost one non-contrarian today.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
Force Vector
Bullish Domain Occupancy; Three in bullish domains, which is mildly
non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus
non-threatening to the bull.
Force
Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; one in bearish domains offering bear
minimal encouragement.
Vector
Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild
support for the bull.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 24-moving in bullish direction, offering additional
bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be
muted as a result of these rising pressures.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds
as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by
double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell
in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each
weekend with a link to the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in
several months.
Click the
below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant
signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the
model’s position on each ETF.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Contrarian Funds
ProFunds Ultra Short
mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the
Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 1.9% since that sell signal.
It remains configured for potential “short-term bullishness” but
significant more overall stock market bearish synergy is required to
signal buy for this fund and QQQQ must demonstrate some additional
interest in bearish behavior.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
54.1% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.04 and still
falling.
ETF#03-Natural Resources
- The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009.
It is up 11.1% since those buy signals, annualizing at 35.2%.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 42.3%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
43.7%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $91.88 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 27.9% since
then, annualizing at 46.9%.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant. It is up 0.9% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for
this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.
You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences, while
also not being motivated by its potential bullish desires.
Major ETF Events
Nov
24, 2009-One non-contrarian’s QTI Bearish Yellow Curve shifted to bearish
slope today. This is minor, relative to overall stock market, it is worthy
of mention, since this is the first time this occurred since last
February.
Nov
23, 2009-VIX Near-term Blue Curve collapsed today. That suggests little
VIX bullish interest on the immediate horizon, which is non-bearish for
the overall stock market.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 24, 2009-Same as yesterday; most
attributes are non-bearish. Nov 23, 2009-Most of the Near-term and
Quick-term Indicant attributes continue holding bullish configurations.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
11/24/09
Nov 23,
2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
17 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against
dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. Near-term Green curves at the other
extreme are improving in their bullish support.
The
primary concerns remain the same. Although Vector Pressure is again
inclining, bullishly mature Force Vectors remain as a mild threat on a
short-term basis. Their lateral moving behavior minimizes potential for
this threat. However, they are again angling to the south and point of
minor concern. They are in bullish domains, so any bearish expressions
would not be severe or long lasting.
The
stock market responded, bullishly, to healthier economic data today,
overriding Congressional concerns regarding healthcare. The bull could
climb this wall of worry in the hopes of rescinding in the event
healthcare actually passes into law.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The eleven
non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 23.9%, annualizing at
50.9%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 24.4-weeks ago. The lone
avoid signal (VIX) is down 7.1% since the bear signal 1.0-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Although
there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull
for 11-major indices. They are up 17.8%, annualizing at 39.1%, since their
bull signals an average of 23.7-weeks ago.
The lone QTI
bear, VIX, is down 40.9% since its bear signal 31.6-weeks ago. VIX
eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying
for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough
bearish synergy to support a VIX bull signal. Since then, the VIX
weakened, but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for
future aggression.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
QTI-Red Bull Count; A solid majority of ten support bullish bias.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend,
supporting bullish bias.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without
any bearish bias.
NTI-Blue Bull Count; There are
eight blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve
Trend;11-non-contrarian in bullish trend. VIX blue collapsed today.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend -
Non-bearish minority with nine of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend.
STI-Force Vector Cyclical
Direction-Zero non-contrarian moving north. Force Vectors are interacting
with Vector Pressure, suggesting increased directional intensity in either
direction.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend-All but
VIX bullishly directed.
Short-term Summary-Overall-The
high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are
protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.
-Tangential Protection –
Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed
for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index
lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices
will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those
tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive
bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively
sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all
indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal. Since last March, the bull
has responded when attributes neared bear signal justifications.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
-
Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following
observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100%
confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the
below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until
you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as
the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant
magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).
-Political Climate
– The Senate preliminarily passed healthcare legislation last Saturday
night. However, Congress is now in recess, which is non-bearish.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on
political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There
always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes
are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue
dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they
evolve.
The NYSE and NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators
continue
moving lethargically. Much of this is due to holiday seasonality. Today’s
aggressive bullish behavior was supported with flat volume, but relatively
high when adjusted for seasonality.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
Although
there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 16.0%, annualizing at 53.3%, since
their buy signals an average of 15.6-weeks ago.
Although
there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four-ETF’s. They are up by
an average of 2.4% since their sell signals an average of 2.4-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 24.1% since their buy signals an average of 25.3-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 49.5%.
Although
there were no sell signals, the two avoided ETF’s are down by an average
of 26.3% since their sell signals an average of 17.6-weeks ago.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bulls Count; 19-solid bullish support.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, offering improved strong bullish support.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; 19-sloping north, expressing improved majority support for
non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This
is now steadying following several days of weakening non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 27-represent a solid majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term
bullishness.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; zero non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness.
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness.
Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are
contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
Force Vector
Bullish Domain Occupancy; Five in bullish domains, which is mildly
non-bearish. Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus
non-threatening to the bull.
Force
Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; one in bearish domains offering little
bearish support.
Vector
Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild
support for the bull.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 26-moving in bullish direction, offering additional
bullish support. Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be
muted as a result of these rising pressures.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds
as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by
double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell
in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each
weekend with a link to the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in
several months.
Click the
below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant
signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the
model’s position on each ETF.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Contrarian Funds
ProFunds Ultra Short
mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the
Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 1.2% since that sell signal.
It remains configured for potential “short-term bullishness” but
significant more overall stock market bearish synergy is required to
signal buy for this fund.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
54.5% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.13 and still
falling.
ETF#03-Natural Resources
- The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009.
It is up 10.4% since those buy signals, annualizing at 33.5%.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 41.7%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
43.3%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $91.72 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 27.4% since
then, annualizing at 46.3%.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant. It is up 0.4% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for
this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.
You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences, while
also not being motivated by its potential bullish desires.
Major ETF Events
Nov
23, 2009-VIX Near-term Blue Curve collapsed today. That suggests little
VIX bullish interest on the immediate horizon, which is non-bearish for
the overall stock market.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 23, 2009-Most of the Near-term and
Quick-term Indicant attributes continue holding bullish configurations.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
11/23/09
Nov 20,
2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
16 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against
dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. Near-term rising green curves add a
bit of comfort to the bull’s longevity.
The
primary concerns remain the same. Although Vector Pressure is again
inclining, bullishly mature Force Vectors remain as a mild threat on a
short-term basis. Their lateral moving behavior minimizes potential for
this threat. However, they are again angling to the south and point of
minor concern. They are in bullish domains, so any bearish expressions
would not be severe or long lasting.
Be
aware of Congressional surprises. Healthcare continues to be a threatening
element to this bull. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill later
this Saturday night. If the bill passes for deliberation, do not be
surprised at a bearish reaction. Passage for deliberation is believed to
be a mere formality for passage into law. Also, insiders may leak reliable
information and the bear may anticipate.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The eleven
non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 22.2%, annualizing at
48.2%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 24.0-weeks ago. The lone
avoid signal (VIX) is down 2.8% since the bear signal 0.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Although
there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull
for 11-major indices. They are up 16.2%, annualizing at 36.3%, since their
bull signals an average of 23.3-weeks ago.
The lone QTI
bear, VIX, is down 38.1% since its bear signal 31.1-weeks ago. VIX
eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying
for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough
bearish synergy to support a bull signal. Since then, the VIX weakened,
but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for future
aggression.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
QTI-Red Bull Count; A solid majority of nine support bullish bias, but
lost one last Thursday.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend,
supporting bullish bias.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without
any bearish bias.
NTI-Blue Bull Count; There are
five blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support. The loss of five last
Thursday and one today has resulted in minority support and somewhat
weakened.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve
Trend;12-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend,
including contrarian VIX.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend -
Non-bearish minority with seven of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend. Five shifted into bearish slope several days ago, increasing
concerns about bearish aggression. Although that concern remains, it is
now a minor one. Two more resumed bullish trend today.
STI-Force Vector Cyclical
Direction-Zero non-contrarian moving north, offering bearish spurt
potential. Force Vectors are “listing” to the right, supporting
non-bearishness. Last Thursday’s bearishness generated a more bearish
angular configuration, but still residing in bullish domains.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend-All but
VIX bullishly directed.
Short-term Summary-Overall-The
high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are
protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression. However,
the impending senatorial vote on healthcare legislation is increasingly
threatening to the stock market’s bull.
-Tangential Protection –
Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed
for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index
lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices
will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those
tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive
bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively
sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all
indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal. Since last March, the bull
has responded when attributes neared bear signal justifications.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
-
Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following
observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100%
confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the
below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until
you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as
the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant
magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).
-Political Climate
– Congress in session is bearish. Technical data continues overriding
congressional bearish threats with bullish attributes at this point,
albeit weakening under the noisy threats by the U.S. Senate and House.
Strong bullishness is not likely to return until the next major
Congressional recess. However, recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia
could accelerate this. However, technical data continues supporting the
current bull. There are a few remnants of mild bearish bias, but now
bordering minutiae. The only concern is VIX’s rising NTI Green curve and
its Force Vector still remains mildly supportive of VIX bullishness and
stock market bearishness.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on
political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There
always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes
are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue
dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they
evolve.
The NYSE and NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators
are
becoming increasingly lethargic due, in part, to the holidays. Last
Monday’s bullish behavior was accompanied with significantly higher
volume, suggesting increased support for the bull. Last Tuesday’s volume
on mildly bullish behavior was light, suggesting little interest in
shifting direction. Wednesday’s volume was slightly higher on mild bearish
behavior. Thursday’s bearishness was not accompanied with high volume,
suggesting limited aggressive support for continued bearishness. Today’s
volume was very light on mild bearish behavior. Overall, the increasingly
lethargic volume indicators are suggesting little interest in promulgating
dynamic cyclical behavior in either direction. In essence last Monday’s
bullishness was wiped out by bearishness during the course of last week.
Passive behavior is supported by lethargic volume configurations. Some of
this is due to holiday seasonality.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
Although
there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 14.5%, annualizing at 49.5%, since
their buy signals an average of 15.2-weeks ago.
Although
there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding four-ETF’s. They are up by
an average of 2.5% since their sell signals an average of 2.0-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 22.5% since their buy signals an average of 24.9-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 46.9%.
Although
there were no sell signals, the two avoided ETF’s are down by an average
of 26.1% since their sell signals an average of 17.1-weeks ago.
Last
Thursday’s sell signal for ETF #06, EWJ, could not be avoided. Price fell
below NTI bearish green and QTI bearish yellow. Vector Pressure is
drifting south. Although there is no bearish synergy or breadth, continued
holding for this ETF threatens accumulated profits.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bulls Count; Nine-mild bullish support.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, offering improved strong bullish support.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; 15-sloping north, expressing mild minority support for
non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This
is now steadying following several days of weakening non-bearish support.
A majority of 16 or more would be a bit more comfortable for those
desiring continued bullishness.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 21-represent a mild majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term
bullishness.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; 1-non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. It is a bit discerning that one non-contrarian
is now a yellow bear.
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness.
Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are
contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
Force Vector
Bullish Domain Occupancy; Eleven in bullish domains, which is non-bearish.
Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus
non-threatening to the bull.
Force
Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; one in bearish domains offering little
bearish support.
Vector
Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild
support for the bull.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 27-moving in bullish direction, which is a significant
increase the past few days. This is offering additional bullish support.
Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of
these rising pressures.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds
as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by
double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell
in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each
weekend with a link to the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in
several months.
Click the
below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant
signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the
model’s position on each ETF.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Contrarian Funds
ProFunds Ultra Short
mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the
Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 4.6% since that sell signal.
It remains configured for potential “short-term bullishness” but
significant more overall stock market bearish synergy is required to
signal buy for this fund.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
52.9% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.23 and still
falling.
ETF#03-Natural Resources
- The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009.
It is up 9.0% since those buy signals, annualizing at 29.8%. Bullish
vitality appears to be weakening.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 40.0%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
41.9%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $91.58 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 25.9% since
then, annualizing at 44.4%.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant. It is up 0.4% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for
this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.
You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences, while
also not being motivated by its potential bullish desires.
Major ETF Events
Nov 20, 2009-Fri-Lost a few blue bulls
today, but non-threatening in either direction.
Nov 19, 2009-Thu-First non-contrarian
QTI sell signal occurred today in over six months. It is
ETF#06, EWJ.
Nov
18, 2009-Wed-Same as yesterday.
Nov
17, 2009-Tue-Low volume, suggesting little interest in dynamic behavior in
either direction.
Nov
16, 2009-Mon-Strong bullish behavior and laterally moving Force Vectors
support bull.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 20, 2009-As long as most ETF’s and
major indices remain above near-term green curve, the bear cannot
dominate. If the stock market reacts bearishly to the Senate’s vote
Saturday night, sustainable bearish dominance cannot be possible as long
as the Near-term Indicant Green curve continues moving north. This will be
true even if the Near-term Blue Curves collapse under the weight of
Senatorial stupidity. Nov 19, 2009-Regardless of what reasons are provided
by the media describing bearish behavior’s causative reasons, it is a
direct function of the Senatorial threat to vote “yes” on their 2,000+
page nonsensical legislation. Be cautious, as the bear may anticipate a
passage this weekend. Nov 18, 2009-Senate is schedule to vote on
healthcare legislation in a few days. The stock market’s low volume
suggests many are “waiting.” Do not be surprised at a bearish reaction in
the event the bill passes. Nov 17, 2009-Most attributes support bull, but
a few of them are still asserting bearish potential. Regardless though,
the bear cannot become dominant at this time. Nov 16, 2009-The bull
reasserted its dominance. Force Vectors did not shift sharply south,
suggesting the bull’s continued dominance. Some Near-term attributes are
bordering in their support of the bear. This suggests potential for
volatility, but the bull continues to express little interest in expiring.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
11/20/09
Nov 19,
2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
15 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against
dynamic sustainable bearish behavior.
The
primary concerns late last week remain the same. Although Vector Pressure
is again inclining, bullishly mature Force Vectors remain as a mild threat
on a short-term basis. Their lateral moving behavior minimizes potential
for this threat. However, they are again angling to the south and point of
minor concern. They are in bullish domains, so any bearish expressions
would not be severe.
Be
aware of Congressional surprises. Healthcare continues to be a threatening
element to this bull. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill later
this week. If the bill passes, do not be surprised at a bearish reaction.
Also, insiders may leak reliable information and the bear may anticipate.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The eleven
non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 22.6%, annualizing at
49.2%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 23.9-weeks ago. The lone
avoid signal (VIX) is down 0.8% since the bear signal 0.4-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Although
there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull
for 11-major indices. They are up 16.5%, annualizing at 37.2%, since their
bull signals an average of 23.1-weeks ago.
The lone QTI
bear, VIX, is down 36.9% since its bear signal 31.0-weeks ago. VIX
eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying
for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough
bearish synergy to support a bull signal. Since then, the VIX weakened,
but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for future
aggression.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
QTI-Red Bull Count; A solid majority of nine support bullish bias, but
lost one today.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend,
supporting bullish bias.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without
any bearish bias.
NTI-Blue Bull Count; There are
six blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support. The loss of five today has
resulted in minority support and somewhat weakened.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve
Trend;12-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend,
including contrarian VIX.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend -
Non-bearish minority with five of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend. Five shifted into bearish slope several days ago, increasing
concerns about bearish aggression. Although that concern remains, it is
now a minor one.
STI-Force Vector Cyclical
Direction-One non-contrarian moving north, which is down by ten from last
Thursday. Force Vectors are “listing” to the right, supporting
non-bearishness. However today’s bearishness generated a more bearish
angular configuration.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend-All but
VIX bullishly directed.
Short-term Summary-Overall-The
high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are
protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression. However,
the impending senatorial vote on healthcare legislation is increasingly
threatening to the stock market’s bull.
-Tangential Protection –
Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed
for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index
lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices
will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those
tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive
bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively
sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all
indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
-
Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following
observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100%
confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the
below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until
you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as
the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant
magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).
-Political Climate
– Congress in session is bearish. Technical data continues overriding
congressional bearish threats with bullish attributes at this point,
albeit weakening under the noisy threats by the U.S. Senate and House.
Strong bullishness is not likely to return until the next major
Congressional recess. However, recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia
could accelerate this. However, technical data continues supporting the
current bull. There are a few remnants of mild bearish bias, but now
bordering minutiae. The only concern is VIX’s rising NTI Green curve and
its Force Vector still remains mildly supportive of VIX bullishness.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on
political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There
always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes
are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue
dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they
evolve.
The NYSE and NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators
are
becoming increasingly lethargic due, in part, to the holidays. Last
Monday’s bullish behavior was accompanied with significantly higher
volume, suggesting increased support for the bull. Last Tuesday’s volume
on mildly bullish behavior was light, suggesting little interest in
shifting direction. Yesterday’s volume was slightly higher on mild bearish
behavior. Today’s bearishness was not accompanied with high volume,
suggesting limited aggressive support for continued bearishness. Overall,
the increasingly lethargic volume indicators are suggesting little
interest in promulgating dynamic cyclical behavior in either direction. In
essence last Monday’s bullishness was wiped out by today’s bearishness.
Passive behavior is supported by lethargic volume configurations. Some of
this is due to holiday seasonality.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.
Although
there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 14.8%, annualizing at 51.1%, since
their buy signals an average of 15.1-weeks ago.
In addition
to the sell signal, the NTI is avoiding three-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 3.0% since their respective sell signals an average of
2.5-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 22.8% since their buy signals an average of 24.8-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 48.0%.
In addition
to the sell signal, the currently lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 53.4%
since its sell signal on Mar 26, 2009.
Today’s sell
signal for ETF #06, EWJ, could not be avoided. Price fell below NTI
bearish green and QTI bearish yellow. Vector Pressure is drifting south.
Although there is no bearish synergy or breadth, continued holding for
this ETF threatens accumulated profits.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bulls Count; 13-mild bullish support.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, offering improved strong bullish support.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; 14-sloping north, expressing mild minority support for
non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This
is now steadying following several days of weakening non-bearish support.
A majority of 15 or more would be a bit more comfortable for those
desiring continued bullishness.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 21-represent a mild majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; 28-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term
bullishness.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; 1-non-contrarian represents a solid majority supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. It is a bit discerning that one non-contrarian
is now a yellow bear.
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness.
Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are
contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
Force Vector
Bullish Domain Occupancy; 23 in bullish domains, which is non-bearish.
Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus
non-threatening to the bull.
Force
Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; one in bearish domains offering little
bearish support.
Vector
Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild
support for the bull.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 29-moving in bullish direction, which is a significant
increase the past few days. This is offering additional bullish support.
Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of
these rising pressures.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds
as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by
double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell
in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each
weekend with a link to the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in
several months.
Click the
below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant
signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the
model’s position on each ETF.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Contrarian Funds
ProFunds Ultra Short
mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the
Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 3.5% since that sell signal.
It remains configured for potential “short-bullishness.”
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
53.4% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.33 and still
falling.
ETF#03-Natural Resources
- The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009.
It is up 10.9% since those buy signals, annualizing at 33.4%. Bullish
vitality appears to be weakening.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 39.2%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
41.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $91.45 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 25.2% since
then, annualizing at 43.4%.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant. It is up 0.4% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for
this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.
You should notice that it is not succumbing to bearish influences.
Major ETF Events
Nov 19, 2009-Thu-First non-contrarian
QTI sell signal occurred today in over six months. It is
ETF#06, EWJ.
Nov
18, 2009-Wed-Same as yesterday.
Nov
17, 2009-Tue-Low volume, suggesting little interest in dynamic behavior in
either direction.
Nov
16, 2009-Mon-Strong bullish behavior and laterally moving Force Vectors
support bull.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 19, 2009-Regardless of what reasons
are provided by the media describing bearish behavior’s causative reasons,
it is a direct function of the Senatorial threat to vote “yes” on their
2,000+ page nonsensical legislation. Be cautious, as the bear may
anticipate a passage this weekend. Nov 18, 2009-Senate is schedule to vote
on healthcare legislation in a few days. The stock market’s low volume
suggests many are “waiting.” Do not be surprised at a bearish reaction in
the event the bill passes. Nov 17, 2009-Most attributes support bull, but
a few of them are still asserting bearish potential. Regardless though,
the bear cannot become dominant at this time. Nov 16, 2009-The bull
reasserted its dominance. Force Vectors did not shift sharply south,
suggesting the bull’s continued dominance. Some Near-term attributes are
bordering in their support of the bear. This suggests potential for
volatility, but the bull continues to express little interest in expiring.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
11/19/09
Nov 18,
2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
14 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against
dynamic sustainable bearish behavior.
The
primary concerns late last week remain the same. Although Vector Pressure
is again inclining, bullishly mature Force Vectors remain as a mild threat
on a short-term basis. Their lateral moving behavior minimizes potential
for this threat.
Be
aware of Congressional surprises. Healthcare continues to be a threatening
element to this bull. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill later
this week. If the bill passes, do not be surprised at a bearish reaction.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The eleven
non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 24.5%, annualizing at
53.5%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 23.9-weeks ago. The lone
avoid signal (VIX) is down 5.2% since the bear signal 0.4-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Although
there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull
for 11-major indices. They are up 18.4%, annualizing at 41.4%, since their
bull signals an average of 23.1-weeks ago.
The lone QTI
bear, VIX, is down 39.6% since its bear signal 31.0-weeks ago. VIX
eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying
for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough
bearish synergy to support a bull signal. Since then, the VIX weakened,
but keep in mind, it is developing a baseline support level for future
aggression.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
QTI-Red Bull Count; A solid majority of ten support bullish bias.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve Trend;
Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend,
supporting bullish bias.
QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve Trend;
Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in non-bearish
trend, supporting non-bearish bias.
QIT-Yellow Bear Count; None of
the non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without
any bearish bias.
NTI-Blue Bull Count; There are
eleven blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve
Trend;11-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend,
including contrarian VIX.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend -
Non-bearish minority with five of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend. Five shifted into bearish slope several days ago, increasing
concerns about bearish aggression. Although that concern remains, it is
now a minor one.
STI-Force Vector Cyclical
Direction-One non-contrarian moving north, which is down by ten from last
Thursday. Force Vectors are “listing” to the right, supporting
non-bearishness.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend-All but
VIX bullishly directed.
Short-term Summary-Overall-The
high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are
protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.
-Tangential Protection –
Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed
for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index
lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices
will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those
tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive
bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively
sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all
indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
-
Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following
observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100%
confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the
below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until
you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as
the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant
magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).
-Political Climate
– Congress in session is bearish, even though out of session this past
week. Technical data continues overriding congressional bearishness with
bullish attributes at this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats
by the U.S. Senate and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return
until the next major Congressional recess. However, recent elections in
New Jersey and Virginia could accelerate this. However, technical data
continues supporting the current bull. There are a few remnants of mild
bearish bias, but now bordering minutiae. The only concern is VIX’s
rising NTI Green curve and its Force Vector still remains mildly
supportive of VIX bullishness.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on
political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There
always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes
are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue
dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they
evolve.
The NYSE and NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators
are
becoming increasingly lethargic due, in part, to the holidays. Last
Monday’s bullish behavior was accompanied with significantly higher
volume, suggesting increased support for the bull. Yesterday’s volume on
mildly bullish behavior was light, suggesting little interest in shifting
direction. Today’s volume was slightly higher on mild bearish behavior.
Overall, the increasingly lethargic volume indicators are suggesting
little interest in promulgating dynamic cyclical behavior in either
direction.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
Although
there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 16.5%, annualizing at 55.1%, since
their buy signals an average of 16.5-weeks ago.
Although
there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding three-ETF’s. They are up
by an average of 3.0% since their respective sell signals an average of
2.3-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 24.1% since their buy signals an average of 24.7-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 50.7%. Although there were no sell
signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 54.9% since its sell signal
on Mar 26, 2009.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bulls Count; 26-strong bullish support with strong majority position.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, offering improved strong bullish support.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; 14-sloping north, expressing minority support for
non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This
is now steadying following several days of weakening non-bearish support.
A majority of 15 or more would be a bit more comfortable for those
desiring continued bullishness.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 26-represent a strong majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; 27-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term
bullishness.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; 0-non-contrarian represent a solid majority supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. Contrarian QID is the only yellow bear and
thus non-threatening to the QTI Bull.
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness.
Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are
contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
Force Vector
Bullish Domain Occupancy; 25 in bullish domains, which is non-bearish.
Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus
non-threatening to the bull.
Zero-Force
Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; zero in bearish domains offering little
bearish support.
Vector
Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild
support for the bull.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 29-moving in bullish direction, which is a significant
increase the past five days. This is offering additional bullish support.
Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of
these rising pressures.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds
as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by
double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell
in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each
weekend with a link to the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in
several months.
Click the
below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant
signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the
model’s position on each ETF.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Contrarian Funds
ProFunds Ultra Short
mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the
Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID on November 16, 2009. It is up 0.3% since that sell signal.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
54.9% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.43 and still
falling.
ETF#03-Natural Resources
- The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009.
It is up 12.6% since those buy signals, annualizing at 42.3%. Bullish
vitality appears to be weakening.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 39.2%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
41.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $91.34 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 25.1% since
then, annualizing at 41.2%.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant. It is up 0.3% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for
this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.
Major ETF Events
Nov
18, 2009-Wed-Same as yesterday.
Nov
17, 2009-Tue-Low volume, suggesting little interest in dynamic behavior in
either direction.
Nov
16, 2009-Mon-Strong bullish behavior and laterally moving Force Vectors
support bull.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 18, 2009-Senate is schedule to vote
on healthcare legislation in a few days. The stock market’s low volume
suggests many are “waiting.” Do not be surprised at a bearish reaction in
the event the bill passes. Nov 17, 2009-Most attributes support bull, but
a few of them are still asserting bearish potential. Regardless though,
the bear cannot become dominant at this time. Nov 16, 2009-The bull
reasserted its dominance. Force Vectors did not shift sharply south,
suggesting the bull’s continued dominance. Some Near-term attributes are
bordering in their support of the bear. This suggests potential for
volatility, but the bull continues to express little interest in expiring.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
11/18/09
Nov 17,
2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
12 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against
dynamic sustainable bearish behavior.
The
primary concerns late last week remain the same. Although Vector Pressure
is again inclining, bullishly mature Force Vectors remain as a mild threat
on a short-term basis. Their lateral moving behavior minimizes potential
for this threat.
Be
aware of Congressional surprises. Healthcare continues to be a threatening
element to this bull.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
The eleven
non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 24.9%, annualizing at
55.0%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 23.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Although
there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull
for 11-major indices. They are up 18.8%, annualizing at 42.7%, since their
bull signals an average of 22.8-weeks ago.
The lone QTI
bear, VIX, is down 37.5% since its bear signal 30.7-weeks ago. VIX
eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying
for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough
bearish synergy to support a bull signal.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
QTI-Red Bulls-A solid majority of ten support bullish bias.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve
Trend-Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend, supporting bullish bias.
QTI-Bearish Yellow
Curve-Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in
non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.
QIT-Yellow Bears-None of the
non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any
bearish bias.
NTI-Blue Bulls-There are eleven
blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve
Trend-11-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend,
including contrarian VIX.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve Trend -
Non-bearish minority with five of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend. Five shifted into bearish slope several days ago, increasing
concerns about bearish aggression. Although that concern remains, it is
now a minor one.
STI-Force Vector Cyclical
Direction-One non-contrarian moving north, which is down by ten from last
Thursday. Force Vectors are “listing” to the right, supporting
non-bearishness.
STI-Vector Pressure Trend-All but
VIX bullishly directed.
Short-term Summary-Overall-The
high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are
protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.
-Tangential Protection –
Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed
for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index
lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices
will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those
tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive
bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively
sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all
indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
-
Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following
observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100%
confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the
below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until
you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as
the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant
magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).
-Political Climate
– Congress in session is bearish, even though out of session this past
week. Technical data continues overriding congressional bearishness with
bullish attributes at this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats
by the U.S. Senate and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return
until the next major Congressional recess. However, recent elections in
New Jersey and Virginia could accelerate this. However, technical data
continues supporting the current bull. There are a few remnants of mild
bearish bias, but now bordering minutiae. The only concern is VIX’s
rising NTI Green curve and its Force Vector still remains mildly
supportive of VIX bullishness.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on
political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There
always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes
are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue
dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they
evolve.
The NYSE and NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators
are
becoming increasingly lethargic due, in part, to the holidays. Yesterday’s
bullish behavior was accompanied with significantly higher volume,
suggesting increased support for the bull. Today’s volume on mildly
bullish behavior was light, suggesting little interest in shifting
direction.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.
In addition
to the buy signal, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s.
They are up by an average of 17.5%, annualizing at 57.0%, since their buy
signals an average of 16.0-weeks ago.
Although
there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding three-ETF’s. They are up
by an average of 2.7% since their respective sell signals an average of
2.2-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 24.5% since their buy signals an average of 24.6-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 51.8%. Although there were no sell
signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 55.3% since its sell signal
on Mar 26, 2009.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
NTI Blue
Bulls Count; 27-strong bullish support with strong majority position.
NTI Blue
Curve Trend; 28-sloping north, offering improved strong bullish support.
NTI Green
Curve Trend; 12-sloping north, expressing minority support for
non-bearishness. As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This
is now steadying following several days of weakening non-bearish support.
A majority of 15 or more would be a bit more comfortable for those
desiring continued bullishness.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
QTI Red Bull
Count; 28-represent a strong majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.
QTI Bullish
Red Curve Trend; 27-sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term
bullishness.
QTI Yellow
Bear Count; 0-non-contrarian represent a solid majority supporting
Quick-term non-bearishness. Contrarian QID is the only yellow bear and
thus non-threatening to the QTI Bull.
QTI Bearish
Yellow Curve Trend; 29-sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness.
Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south. Since both are
contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
Force Vector
Bullish Domain Occupancy; 27 in bullish domains, which is non-bearish.
Although bullish cycle is mature, they are hovering and thus
non-threatening to the bull.
Zero-Force
Vectors Bearish Domain Occupancy; zero in bearish domains offering little
bearish support.
Vector
Pressure Bullish Domain Occupancy; 3-in bullish domains, offering mild
support for the bull.
Vector
Pressure Trend; 29-moving in bullish direction, which is a significant
increase the past four days. This is offering additional bullish support.
Even if the bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of
these rising pressures.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds
as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by
double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell
in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each
weekend with a link to the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in
several months.
Click the
below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant
signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the
model’s position on each ETF.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Contrarian Funds
ProFunds Ultra Short
mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the
Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID yesterday.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
55.3% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.54 and still
falling.
ETF#03-Natural Resources
- The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009.
It is up 13.0% since those buy signals, annualizing at 44.2%. Bullish
vitality appears to be weakening.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 38.8%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
41.0%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $91.23 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 24.8% since
then, annualizing at 43.1%.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant. It is up 0.8% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for
this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.
Interestingly, this fund was not contrarian the past two days.
Major ETF Events
Nov
17, 2009-Tue-Low volume, suggesting little interest in dynamic behavior in
either direction.
Nov
16, 2009-Mon-Strong bullish behavior and laterally moving Force Vectors
support bull.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 17, 2009-Most attributes support
bull, but a few of them are still asserting bearish potential. Regardless
though, the bear cannot become dominant at this time. Nov 16, 2009-The
bull reasserted its dominance. Force Vectors did not shift sharply south,
suggesting the bull’s continued dominance. Some Near-term attributes are
bordering in their support of the bear. This suggests potential for
volatility, but the bull continues to express little interest in expiring.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
11/17/09
Nov 16,
2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
11 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
The
Near-term Bull countered the bear’s attack with forceful bullish
expressions today. Although the bear still has a few weapons, they lack
destructive capacity at this time.
Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against
dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. An immediate question will be the
comfort level of these newly configured Red Bulls. Discomfort will be
inspirational to the bear. As you can tell from today’s bullish
expression, there was no discomfort.
The
primary concerns late last week remain the same. Although Vector Pressure
is again inclining, bullishly mature Force Vectors remain as a mild threat
on a short-term basis. Their lateral moving behavior minimizes potential
for this threat.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and one new bear.
Although VIX
Near-term Green is rising, the Near-term Indicant signaled bear today for
the VIX. Today’s volume was solidly in support of the bull and the stock
market trend remains bullish. The tact is to not fight the trend.
The eleven
non-contrarian major indices are up by an average of 24.9%, annualizing at
55.3%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 23.4-weeks ago. The small
cap index, S&P600, returned to Red Bull status with today’s bullish
aggression, removing the bearish threat from late last week.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Although
there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull
for 11-major indices. They are up 18.7%, annualizing at 42.9%, since their
bull signals an average of 22.7-weeks ago.
The lone QTI
bear, VIX, is down 36.3% since its bear signal 30.6-weeks ago. VIX
eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying
for a Quick-term Bull signal. The major indices did not provide enough
bearish synergy late last week and today’s aggressive bullish expression
muted bearish concerns.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
QTI-Red Bulls-A solid majority of ten support bullish bias.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve
Trend-Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend, supporting bullish bias.
QTI-Bearish Yellow
Curve-Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in
non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.
QIT-Yellow Bears-None of the
non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any
bearish bias.
NTI-Blue Bulls-There are eleven
blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support. (four gained today).
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve
Trend-11-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend,
including contrarian VIX.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve -
Non-bearish minority with five of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend. Five shifted into bearish slope three weeks ago, increasing
concerns about bearish aggression. Although that concern remains, it is
now a minor one.
STI-Force Vector-One
non-contrarian moving north, which is down by ten from last Thursday.
Force Vectors are “listing” to the right, as opposed to a sharply downward
movement, suggesting the bear has been snuffed out with today’s bullish
aggression.
STI-Vector Pressure-Only
contrarian VIX is in bullish trend and thus no pressure support for the
stock market bull. This is deep inside bearish domains and the movement to
date is passive.
Short-term Summary-Overall-The
high number of Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are
protective against dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.
-Tangential Protection –
Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed
for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index
lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices
will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those
tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive
bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively
sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all
indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
-
Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following
observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100%
confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the
below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until
you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as
the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb by significant
magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).
-Political Climate
– Congress in session is bearish, even though out of session this past
week. Technical data continues overriding congressional bearishness with
bullish attributes at this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats
by the U.S. Senate and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return
until the next major Congressional recess. However, recent elections in
New Jersey and Virginia could accelerate this. However, technical data
continues supporting the current bull. There are a few remnants of mild
bearish bias, but now bordering minutiae. The only concern is VIX’s
rising NTI Green curve and its Force Vector still remains mildly
supportive of VIX bullishness.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on
political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There
always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes
are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue
dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they
evolve.
The NYSE and NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators
are
becoming increasingly lethargic due, in part, to the holidays. Today’s
bullish behavior was accompanied with significantly higher volume,
suggesting increased support for the bull.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated nine buy signals and one sell signal.
In addition
to the buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 19-ETF’s.
They are up by an average of 26.5%, annualizing at 58.1%, since their buy
signals an average of 23.8-weeks ago.
In addition
to the sell signal, the NTI is avoiding three-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 4.6% since their respective sell signals an average of
3.0-weeks ago.
The formerly
avoided ETF’s continue moving bullishly with declining and/or wavering
Force Vectors prompted today’s buy signals. Set a relatively tight stop
loss for these funds.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 24.7% since their buy signals an average of 24.5-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 52.5%. Although there were no sell
signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 55.0% since its sell signal
on Mar 26, 2009.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
29-NTI Blue
Bulls; Strong bullish support with strong majority position.
28-NTI Blue
Curves are sloping north, offering improved strong bullish support.
12-NTI Green
Curves are sloping north, expressing minority support for non-bearishness.
As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This is now steadying
following several days of weakening non-bearish support. A majority of 15
or more would be a bit more comfortable for those desiring continued
bullishness.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
28-QTI Red
Bulls represent a strong majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness.
27-QTI
Bullish Red Curves are sloping north in solid majority support for
Quick-term bullishness.
Zero-QTI
Yellow Bears represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term
non-bearishness. Contrarian TLT and QID are the only yellow bears and thus
non-threatening to the QTI Bull.
29-QTI
Bearish yellow curves are sloping north, highlighting solid
non-bearishness. Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south.
Since both are contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
24-Force
Vectors in bullish domains, which is non-bearish. However, they are mature
and it is a bit threatening to the bull for bullishly mature Force Vectors
with declining Vector Pressure.
Zero-Force
Vectors are in bearish domains offering little bearish support.
Zero-Vector
Pressures in bullish domains, offering no support for the bull.
29-Vector
Pressures moving in bullish direction, which is a significant increase the
past three days. This is offering additional bullish support. Even if the
bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these
rising pressures.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds
as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by
double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell
in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each
weekend with a link to the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in
several months.
Click the
below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant
signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the
model’s position on each ETF.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Contrarian Funds
ProFunds Ultra Short
mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the
Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
QID today. The last buy signal disappointed, but short-term
attributes still support its potential bullishness.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
55.0% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.64 and still
falling.
ETF#03-Natural Resources
- The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009.
It is up 13.2% since those buy signals, annualizing at 45.2%. This fund
had been struggling, but bullish in 26-of the last 48-days. It has been
strongly bullish in 18-of the last 31-days, following eight consecutive
days of bearish behavior. As stated last Wednesday, bullish vitality,
though, appears to be weakening.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 38.4%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
40.7%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $91.13 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 24.4% since
then, annualizing at 42.7%.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant. It is up 0.3% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for
this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.
Interestingly, this fund was not contrarian today, as it was mildly
bullish on stock market aggressive bullishness.
Major ETF Events
Nov
16, 2009-Mon-Strong bullish behavior and laterally moving Force Vectors
support bull.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 16, 2009-The bull reasserted its
dominance. Force Vectors did not shift sharply south, suggesting the
bull’s continued dominance. Some Near-term attributes are bordering in
their support of the bear. This suggests potential for volatility, but the
bull continues to express little interest in expiring.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
11/16/09
Nov 13,
2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
10 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
The
Near-term Bull remains under assault by the stock market bear. However,
the bull can withstand several daily assaults, as it remains strong.
Skirmishes between bull and bear should be increasing over the next few
days. Congress returning to work next week, coupled with pinnacled Force
Vectors suggests a bearish edge early next week. Also, Friday’s bullish
behavior was without breadth and with significantly low volume.
Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against
dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. An immediate question will be the
comfort level of these newly configured Red Bulls. Discomfort will be
inspirational to the bear.
The
primary concerns at this time are declining Vector Pressure and the
bullish energy consumed in positioning Force Vectors at their current
position. Although the bull may become passive or possibly meander into
bearish direction, it is still dominant. Early next week will offering
greater obviations of stock market directional intensity.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
There are no
Near-term bears among the major indices, including contrarian VIX. VIX’s
aggressively bullish Force Vector has been followed by an equally bearish
one. This suggests increasing volatility with a slight bias favoring VIX
bullishness and stock market bearishness.
All twelve
major indices are up by an average of 19.6%, annualizing at 48.0%, since
the NTI signaled bull an average of 21.3-weeks ago. These statistics
include contrarian VIX. That will be temporary, as the VIX bull will
expire or the major indices’ bulls will expire. Bull signals for both
cannot exist too long. The S&P500 Index NTI bullish blue did not collapse
in the late October bearish attacks, suggesting the bull remains adamant
about its longevity. A burgeoning problem is the small cap index. It is
the most vulnerable to bearish attacks and typically endures more
punishment by the bear, just at is enjoys greater boosts by the bull. The
large caps cannot be bullish without small cap participation and thus
another reason for cautionary commentary.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Although
there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull
for 11-major indices. They are up 16.8%, annualizing at 39.3%, since their
bull signals an average of 22.3-weeks ago.
The lone QTI
bear, VIX, is down 34.8% since its bear signal 30.1-weeks ago. VIX
eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying
for a Quick-term Bull signal. A bit more bearish synergy from the other
indices is required before the QTI will signal bull for VIX. The VIX Force
Vector has now cooled and extremely so. The expected bullish bounce
occurred last Thursday and it should continue for a few more days.
Obviations of directional stock market intensity will be enhanced as a
function of the bounce’s magnitude.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
QTI-Red Bulls-A majority of nine support bullish bias.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve
Trend-Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend, supporting bullish bias.
QTI-Bearish Yellow
Curve-Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in
non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.
QIT-Yellow Bears-None of the
non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any
bearish bias.
NTI-Blue Bulls-There are seven
blue bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support. (three lost since last Wed).
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve
Trend-11-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend,
including contrarian VIX.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve -
Non-bearish minority with five of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend. Five shifted into bearish slope week before last, increasing
concerns about bearish aggression.
STI-Force Vector-Two
non-contrarians moving north, which is down by nine from last Thursday. If
their impending downward movement parallels market bearishness, the bear
will gain momentum. Do not be surprised at some bearish intrusions in the
next few days. You saw the beginning of a series of such intrusions last
Thursday.
STI-Vector Pressure-Only
contrarian VIX is in bullish trend and thus no pressure support for the
stock market bull.
Short-term
Summary-Overall-Although bearish threats remain, the high number of
Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are protective against
dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.
-Tangential Protection –
Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed
for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index
lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices
will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those
tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive
bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively
sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all
indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
-
Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following
observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100%
confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the
below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until
you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as
the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb to significant
magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).
-Political Climate
– Congress in session is bearish, even though out of session this past
week. Technical data continues overriding congressional bearishness with
bullish attributes at this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats
by the U.S. Senate and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return
until the next major Congressional recess. However, recent elections in
New Jersey and Virginia could accelerate this. However, technical data
continues supporting the current bull with a mild bias favoring the bear
to influence the stock market, but not destructively so.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on
political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There
always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes
are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue
dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they
evolve.
The NYSE and NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators
are
becoming increasingly lethargic due, in part, to the holidays. Today’s
bullish behavior was accompanied with light volume, suggesting limited
support for the bull. That contrast with yesterday’s heavier volume on
bearish aggression.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
Although
there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
19-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 22.7%, annualizing at 53.1%, since
their buy signals an average of 22.2-weeks ago. These hold signals include
contrarian QID. It and most of the other ETF’s cannot maintain
simultaneous holds for too long.
Although
there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding 12-ETF’s. They are up by
an average of 5.2% since their respective sell signals an average of
2.3-weeks ago. Most of these ETF’s are enduring bullishly mature Force
Vectors and several are enduring negatively sloping NTI bearish green
curves and/or below QTI Bullish Red. Thus the reason for continuing with
bear signal. They remain vulnerable to bearish desires. If the bear
executes on those desires, they will fall quicker and deeper than the
others.
Time is
nearing on this, as Force Vectors have pinnacled. If these avoided ETF’s
continue moving bullishly with declining and/or wavering Force Vectors,
then buy signals will ensue. This should occur early next week.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 22.4% since their buy signals an average of 24.0-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 48.4%. Although there were no sell
signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 54.1% since its sell signal
on Mar 26, 2009.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
20-NTI Blue
Bulls; Strong bullish support with majority position.
27-NTI Blue
Curves are sloping north, offering improved bullish support.
12-NTI Green
Curves are sloping north, expressing minority support for non-bearishness.
As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This is weakening
non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
21-QTI Red
Bulls represent a improved majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness. As
long as there is just one non-contrarian Red Bull, the bear cannot
dominate with deep sustainability.
27-QTI
Bullish Red Curves are sloping north in solid majority support for
Quick-term bullishness.
2-QTI Yellow
Bears represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness.
Contrarian TLT and QID are the only yellow bears and thus non-threatening
to the QTI Bull.
29-QTI
Bearish yellow curves are sloping north, highlighting solid
non-bearishness. Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south.
Since both are contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
28-Force
Vectors in bullish domains, which is non-bearish. However, they are mature
and it is a bit threatening to the bull for bullishly mature Force Vectors
with declining Vector Pressure.
Zero-Force
Vectors are in bearish domains. As stated last Thursday, the bull’s
response did not reverse the bearishly mature Force Vectors. The bull has
a bit more opportunity to fix this problem, but has been weakened by not
doing it sooner. Force Vectors are now beginning to interact with Vector
Pressure and appear configured to be weak in doing so. This could motivate
the bear.
Zero-Vector
Pressures in bullish domains, offering no support for the bull.
29-Vector
Pressures moving in bullish direction, which is a significant increase the
past two days. This is offering additional bullish support. Even if the
bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these
rising pressures.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds
as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by
double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell
in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each
weekend with a link to the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in
several months.
Click the
below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant
signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the
model’s position on each ETF.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Contrarian Funds
ProFunds Ultra Short
mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the
Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy for
QID on Oct 28, 2009. It is down 12.2% since that buy signal.
Configurations remain in support of this bull signal. Keep in mind,
though, as long as QQQQ is enjoying a hold signal, the QID hold is a bit
precarious.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
54.1% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.74 and still
falling.
ETF#03-Natural Resources
- The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009.
It is up 10.3% since those buy signals, annualizing at 36.4%. This fund
had been struggling, but bullish in 25-of the last 47-days. It has been
strongly bullish in 17-of the last 30-days, following eight consecutive
days of bearish behavior. As stated last Wednesday, bullish vitality,
though, appears to be weakening.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 36.1%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
38.5%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $91.04 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 22.3% since
then, annualizing at 39.6%.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant. It is down 0.9% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for
this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.
However, the stock market remains under attack by the bear. The weakening
dollar has not been friendly to this ETF.
Major ETF Events
Nov
13, 2009-Fri-Although the stock market was mildly bullish today, there was
little breadth. Most Force Vectors pinnacled and they will be moving south
early next week. If stock prices do not parallel this southerly movement,
the bull will continue its dominance and move on to new cyclical highs.
Odds favor, however, an increased bearish influence, but nowhere
threatening the bull’s longevity.
Nov
12, 2009-Thu-Bearish behavior is coinciding with maturing Force Vectors.
Nov
11, 2009-Wed-Several ETF Vector Pressures shifted from bearish to bullish
direction today. If this holds up through the next few days, the avoid
signals will be removed with buy signals for several ETF’s.
Nov
10, 2009-Tue-There were no major events today. However, bullishly maturing
Foce Vectors with declining Vector Pressure is a bit discerning.
Nov
9, 2009-Mon-Force Vectors for major indices and ETF’s crossed above Vector
Pressure today. These Force Vectors are bullishly mature and with minimal
battle energy to fend off additional attacks by the bear.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 13, 2009-Pinnacling Force Vectors
will elucidate the stock market’s directional intensity early next week.
Congress returns to work next Monday. That gives the bear an advantage,
but keep in mind this bull is a thoroughbred and capable of surviving bear
attacks. Nov 12, 2009-Bear demonstrated interest today and should gain
some momentum over the next few days. Nov 11, 2009-If bear continues
hibernation, the bull should regain aggression, but bullish mature Force
Vectors continue suggesting the bear will wake up on the immediate
horizon. Nov 10, 2009-Bullishly mature Force Vectors should invite bearish
expressions. Keep in mind the bull is still a “the bull” but it is never
straight up. Bearish attacks are imminent. Nov 9, 2009-Bull remains in
tact, but bullish energy is sapped on a near-term basis. Meandering
behavior would be a nice substitute to bearish aggression. Several
near-term, quick-term, and short-term attributes are currently aligned
against sustainable bearish aggression. There are also several near-term
attributes increasingly non-supportive of the bull, but nowhere near
identifying expiration of the bull.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
11/13/09
Nov 12,
2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
09 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
The
Near-term Bull remains under assault by the stock market bear. However,
the bull can withstand several daily assaults as it remains strong.
Skirmishes between bull and bear should be increasing over the next few
days.
Quick-term Red Bulls remain in majority and thus protective against
dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. An immediate question will be the
comfort level of these newly configured Red Bulls. Discomfort will be
inspirational to the bear.
The
primary concerns at this time are declining Vector Pressure and the
bullish energy consumed in positioning Force Vectors at their current
position. Although the bull may become passive or possibly meander into
bearish direction, it is still dominant.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
There are no
Near-term bears among the major indices, including contrarian VIX. VIX’s
aggressively bullish Force Vector has been followed by a nearly equal
bearish aggression. Configurations suggests a bullish VIX bounce is
imminent. That occurred today and that bounce is not complete.
All twelve
major indices are up by an average of 19.0%, annualizing at 46.9%, since
the NTI signaled bull an average of 21.1-weeks ago. These statistics
include contrarian VIX. That will be temporary, as the VIX bull will
expire or the major indices’ bulls will expire. Bull signals for both
cannot exist too long. The S&P500 Index NTI bullish blue did not collapse
in the bearish attacks, suggesting the bull remains adamant about its
longevity. A burgeoning problem is the small cap index. It is the most
vulnerable to bearish attacks and typically endures more punishment by the
bear. The large caps cannot be bullish without small cap participation and
thus another reason for cautionary commentary.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Although
there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull
for 11-major indices. They are up 15.9%, annualizing at 37.5%, since their
bull signals an average of 22.1-weeks ago.
The lone QTI
bear, VIX, is down 32.4% since its bear signal 30.0-weeks ago. VIX
eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying
for a Quick-term Bull signal. A bit more bearish synergy from the other
indices is required before the QTI will signal bull for VIX. The VIX Force
Vector has now cooled and extremely so. The expected bullish bounce
occurred today and it should continue for a few more days. Obviations of
directional stock market intensity will be enhanced as a function of the
bounce’s magnitude.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
QTI-Red Bulls-A majority of nine support bullish bias.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve
Trend-Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend, supporting bullish bias.
QTI-Bearish Yellow
Curve-Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in
non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.
QIT-Yellow Bears-None of the
non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any
bearish bias.
NTI-Blue Bulls-There are six blue
bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support. (Four lost today).
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve
Trend-11-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend,
including contrarian VIX.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve -
Non-bearish minority with four of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend. Five shifted into bearish slope last week, increasing concerns
about bearish aggression.
STI-Force Vector-Eleven
non-contrarians moving north, offering some bullish resistance to the
bear. However, they are now mature and used significant energy. Do not be
surprised at some bearish intrusions in the next few days. You saw the
beginning of a series of such intrusions today.
STI-Vector Pressure-Only
contrarian VIX is in bullish trend and thus no pressure support for the
stock market bull.
Short-term
Summary-Overall-Although bearish threats remain, the high number of
Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are protective against
dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.
-Tangential Protection –
Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed
for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index
lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices
will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those
tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive
bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively
sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all
indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
-
Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following
observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100%
confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the
below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until
you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as
the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb to significant
magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).
-Political Climate
– Congress in session is bearish, but technical data is overriding at
this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats by the U.S. Senate
and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return until the next
Congressional recess. However, recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia
could accelerate this. However, technical data continues with a mild bias
favoring the bear.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on
political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There
always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes
are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue
dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they
evolve.
The NYSE and NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators
shifted back
to the south, suggesting the potential for a lethargic cycle. Today’s
bearish aggression was accompanied with mixed volume. NASDAQ volume was a
bit more supportive of the bear, while the Big Board yawned. That
combination suggests increased bearish support.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
Although
there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
19-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 21.6%, annualizing at 50.9%, since
their buy signals an average of 22.1-weeks ago. These hold signals include
contrarian QID. It and most of the other ETF’s cannot maintain
simultaneous holds for too long.
Although
there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding 12-ETF’s. They are up by
an average of 4.5% since their respective sell signals an average of
2.1-weeks ago. Most of these ETF’s are enduring bullishly mature Force
Vectors and several are enduring negatively sloping NTI bearish green
curves and/or below QTI Bullish Red. Thus the reason for continuing with
bear signal. They remain vulnerable to bearish desires. If the bear
executes on those desires, they will fall quicker and deeper than the
others.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 21.3% since their buy signals an average of 23.9-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 46.4%. Although there were no sell
signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 53.3% since its sell signal
on Mar 26, 2009.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
15-NTI Blue
Bulls; Strong bullish support with majority position.
28-NTI Blue
Curves are sloping north, offering improved bullish support.
12-NTI Green
Curves are sloping north, expressing minority support for non-bearishness.
As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This is weakening
non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
22-QTI Red
Bulls represent a improved majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness. As
long as there is just one non-contrarian Red Bull, the bear cannot
dominate with deep sustainability.
27-QTI
Bullish Red Curves are sloping north in solid majority support for
Quick-term bullishness.
2-QTI Yellow
Bears represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness.
Contrarian TLT and QID are the only yellow bears and thus non-threatening
to the QTI Bull.
29-QTI
Bearish yellow curves are sloping north, highlighting solid
non-bearishness. Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south.
Since both are contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
27-Force
Vectors in bullish domains, which is non-bearish. However, they are mature
and it is a bit threatening to the bull for bullishly mature Force Vectors
with declining Vector Pressure.
Zero-Force
Vectors are in bearish domains. As stated last Thursday, the bull’s
response did not reverse the bearishly mature Force Vectors. The bull has
a bit more opportunity to fix this problem, but has been weakened by not
doing it sooner. Force Vectors are now beginning to interact with Vector
Pressure and appear configured to be weak in doing so. This could motivate
the bear.
Zero-Vector
Pressures in bullish domains, offering no support for the bull.
29-Vector
Pressures moving in bullish direction, which is a significant increase the
past two days. This is offering additional bullish support. Even if the
bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of these
rising pressures.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds
as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by
double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell
in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each
weekend with a link to the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in
several months.
Click the
below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant
signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the
model’s position on each ETF.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Contrarian Funds
ProFunds Ultra Short
mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the
Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy for
QID on Oct 28, 2009. It is down 10.6% since that buy signal.
Configurations remain in support of this bull signal. Keep in mind as long
as QQQQ is enjoying a hold signal, the QID hold is a bit precarious.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
53.8% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.84 and still
falling.
ETF#03-Natural Resources
- The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009.
It is up 9.6% since those buy signals, annualizing at 34.3%. This fund had
been struggling, but bullish in 24-of the last 46-days. It has been
strongly bullish in 16-of the last 29-days, following eight consecutive
days of bearish behavior. As stated yesterday, bullish vitality, though,
appears to be weakening.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals
is up 34.2%
since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at
36.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term
hold position, which is at $90.94 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 20.6% since
then, annualizing at 36.7%.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant. It is down 1.3% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for
this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.
However, the stock market remains under attack by the bear. The weakening
dollar has not been friendly to this ETF.
Major ETF Events
Nov
12, 2009-Thu-Bearish behavior is coinciding with maturing Force Vectors.
Nov
11, 2009-Wed-Several ETF Vector Pressures shifted from bearish to bullish
direction today. If this holds up through the next few days, the avoid
signals will be removed with buy signals for several ETF’s.
Nov
10, 2009-Tue-There were no major events today. However, bullishly maturing
Foce Vectors with declining Vector Pressure is a bit discerning.
Nov
9, 2009-Mon-Force Vectors for major indices and ETF’s crossed above Vector
Pressure today. These Force Vectors are bullishly mature and with minimal
battle energy to fend off additional attacks by the bear.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Nov 12, 2009-Bear demonstrated interest
today and should gain some momentum over the next few days. Nov 11,
2009-If bear continues hibernation, the bull should regain aggression, but
bullish mature Force Vectors continue suggesting the bear will wake up on
the immediate horizon. Nov 10, 2009-Bullishly mature Force Vectors should
invite bearish expressions. Keep in mind the bull is still a “the bull”
but it is never straight up. Bearish attacks are imminent. Nov 9,
2009-Bull remains in tact, but bullish energy is sapped on a near-term
basis. Meandering behavior would be a nice substitute to bearish
aggression. Several near-term, quick-term, and short-term attributes are
currently aligned against sustainable bearish aggression. There are also
several near-term attributes increasingly non-supportive of the bull, but
nowhere near identifying expiration of the bull.
Click
Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.net
11/12/09
Nov 11,
2009 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
08 ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
The
Near-term Bull remains under assault by the stock market bear. However,
the bull can withstand several daily assaults as it remains strong.
Skirmishes between bull and bear should be increasing over the next few
days.
Quick-term Red Bulls are remain in majority and thus protective against
dynamic sustainable bearish behavior. An immediate question will be the
comfort level of these newly configured Red Bull. Discomfort will be
inspirational to the bear.
The
primary concerns at this time are declining Vector Pressure and the
bullish energy consumed in positioning Force Vectors at their current
position. Although the bull may become passive or possibly meander into
bearish direction, it is still dominant.
Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details
The
Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
There are no
Near-term bears among the major indices, including contrarian VIX. VIX’s
aggressively bullish Force Vector has been followed by a nearly equal
bearish aggression. Configurations suggests a bullish VIX bounce is
imminent. It is unlikely to continue bearishness after Force Vector
penetrates its bullishly sloping Vector Pressure. If VIX falls below NTI
Green, Force Vectors will likely disfigure, which typically leads to a
continuation of the last prevailing cycle. In this case that would mean a
bearish VIX and bullish stock market. Time is nearing for finality.
Obviations of directional intensity should occur before the end of this
week.
All twelve
major indices are up by an average of 20.0%, annualizing at 49.6%, since
the NTI signaled bull an average of 21.0-weeks ago. These statistics
include contrarian VIX. That will be temporary, as the VIX bull will
expire or the major indices’ bulls will expire. Bull signals for both
cannot exist too long. The S&P500 Index NTI bullish blue did not collapse
in the bearish attacks, suggesting the bull remains adamant about its
longevity. A burgeoning problem is the small cap index. Although bullish
today, it is the most vulnerable to bearish attacks. The large caps cannot
be bullish without small cap participation and thus another reason for
cautionary commentary.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Although
there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull
for 11-major indices. They are up 17.3%, annualizing at 40.9%, since their
bull signals an average of 22.0-weeks ago.
The lone QTI
bear, VIX, is down 35.7% since its bear signal 29.9-weeks ago. VIX
eclipsed bearish yellow on Thursday, Oct 29, 2009, technically qualifying
for a Quick-term Bull signal. A bit more bearish synergy from the other
indices is required before the QTI will signal bull for VIX. The VIX Force
Vector has now cooled and extremely so. There should be a bullish bounce
for the VIX in a day or two. Obviations of directional stock market
intensity will be enhanced depending on the nature of this impending VIX
bounce.
-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes
(Includes Near-term and Quick-term)
QTI-Red Bulls-A majority of ten support bullish bias.
QTI-Bullish Red Curve
Trend-Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend, supporting bullish bias.
QTI-Bearish Yellow
Curve-Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in
non-bearish trend, supporting non-bearish bias.
QIT-Yellow Bears-None of the
non-contrarian’s are inflicted with this attribute and thus without any
bearish bias.
NTI-Blue Bulls-There are ten blue
bulls, suggesting NTI bullish support.
NTI-Bullish Blue Curve
Trend-12-non-contrarian in bullish trend, supporting bullish trend,
including contrarian VIX.
NTI-Bearish Green Curve -
Non-bearish minority with four of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish
trend. Five shifted into bearish slope last week, increasing concerns
about bearish aggression.
STI-Force Vector-Eleven
non-contrarians moving north, offering some bullish resistance to the
bear. However, they are now mature and used significant energy. Do not be
surprised at some bearish intrusions in the next few days.
STI-Vector Pressure-Only
contrarian VIX is in bullish trend and thus no pressure support for the
stock market bull.
Short-term
Summary-Overall-Although bearish threats remain, the high number of
Quick-term Red Bulls and Near-term Blue Bulls are protective against
dynamic and sustainable bearish aggression.
-Tangential Protection –
Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed
for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, and S&P400. The S&P600-Index
lost this protection during the week of November 9, 2009. These indices
will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those
tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive
bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively
sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all
indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.
-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection
-
Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following
observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100%
confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the
below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until
you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as
the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb to significant
magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).
-Political Climate
– Congress in session is bearish, but technical data is overriding at
this point, albeit weakening under the noisy threats by the U.S. Senate
and House. Strong bullishness is not likely to return until the next
Congressional recess. However, recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia
could accelerate this. However, technical data continues with a mild bias
favoring the bear.
Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential
Projections).
The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website.
Keep in mind
there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not
knowing when, but odds favor early next year. Much of this depends on
political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There
always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes
are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue
dominance.
Click the
Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the
Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has
links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there
are two separate buy and sell signals for either the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
The tour is
still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term
bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse
tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they
evolve.
The NYSE and NASDAQ
Indicant Volume Indicators
shifted back
to the south, suggesting the potential for a lethargic cycle. Today’s mild
bullish behavior was accompanied with depressed volume again biasing in
favor of little interest in dynamic behavior in either direction.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
The
Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
Although
there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for
19-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 23.0%, annualizing at 54.6%, since
their buy signals an average of 21.9-weeks ago. These hold signals include
contrarian QID. It and most of the other ETF’s cannot maintain
simultaneous holds for too long. QID has disappointed the last five days,
which suggest stronger buying considerations. Its downward price movement
is muted since it is very low priced.
Although
there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding 12-ETF’s. They are up by
an average of 6.0% since their respective sell signals an average of
2.0-weeks ago. Most of these ETF’s are enduring bullishly mature Force
Vectors and several are enduring negatively sloping NTI bearish green
curves and/or below QTI Bullish Red. Thus the reason for continuing with
bear signal. They remain vulnerable to bearish desires. If the bear
executes on those desires, they will fall quicker and deeper than the
others.
The
Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The
Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 22.9% since their buy signals an average of 23.7-weeks ago. Those with
hold signals are annualizing at 50.2%. Although there were no sell
signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 53.8% since its sell signal
on Mar 26, 2009.
Near-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
24-NTI Blue
Bulls; Strong bullish support with majority position.
29-NTI Blue
Curves are sloping north, offering improved bullish support.
12-NTI Green
Curves are sloping north, expressing minority support for non-bearishness.
As long as this holds up, the bear cannot dominate. This is weakening
non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Indicant ETF Key Attributes
25-QTI Red
Bulls represent a improved majority, supporting Quick-term bullishness. As
long as there is just one non-contrarian Red Bull, the bear cannot
dominate with deep sustainability.
28-QTI
Bullish Red Curves are sloping north in solid majority support for
Quick-term bullishness.
2-QTI Yellow
Bears represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness.
Contrarian TLT and QID are the only yellow bears and thus non-threatening
to the QTI Bull.
29-QTI
Bearish yellow curves are sloping north, highlighting solid
non-bearishness. Only contrarian ETF’s, QID and TLT are sloping south.
Since both are contrarian, this attribute remains non-bearish.
The
Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:
27-Force
Vectors in bullish domains, which is non-bearish. However, they are mature
and it is a bit threatening to the bull for bullishly mature Force Vectors
with declining Vector Pressure.
Zero-Force
Vectors are in bearish domains. As stated last Thursday, the bull’s
response did not reverse the bearishly mature Force Vectors. The bull has
a bit more opportunity to fix this problem, but has been weakened by not
doing it sooner. Force Vectors are now beginning to interact with Vector
Pressure and appear configured to be weak in doing so. This could motivate
the bear.
Zero-Vector
Pressures in bullish domains, offering no support for the bull.
24-Vector
Pressures moving in bullish direction, which is a significant increase
from yesterday. This is offering additional bullish support. Even if the
bear has its way, its destruction will be muted as a result of this rising
pressures.
Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds
as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by
double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell
in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each
weekend with a link to the member’s section.
Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update.
You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in
several months.
Click the
below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant
signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the
model’s position on each ETF.
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm
Contrarian Funds
ProFunds Ultra Short
mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the
Mid-term Indicant for its status.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy for
QID on Oct 28, 2009. It is down 11.6% since that buy signal.
Configurations remain in support of this bull signal. Keep in mind as long
as QQQQ is enjoying a hold signal, the QID hold is a bit precarious.
The
Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down
53.8% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it
contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $30.94 and still
falling.
ETF#03-Natural Resources
- The
Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009.
It is up 12.1% since those buy signals, annualizing at 43.5%. This fund
had been struggling, but bullish in 24-of the last 45-days. It has been
strongly bullish in 16-of the last 28-days, following eight consecutive
days of bearish behavior. Bullish vitality, though, appears to be
weakening.
ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is
up 35.9% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized
growth is at 38.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for
a longer-term hold position, which is at $90.84 and still rising.
The
Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 22.2% since
then, annualizing at 39.7%.
As stated
for the last several months, gold remains fundamentally sound for
long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that
assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish
yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will
highlight that potential when this occurs.
ETF#14-TLT-Long Government
received a
buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term
Indicant. It is down 1.1% since that buy signal. It will be difficult for
this hold to produce profitability as long as the stock market is bullish.
However, the stock market remains under attack by the bear. The weakening
dollar has not been friendly to this ETF.
Major ETF Events
Nov
11, 2009-Wed-Several ETF Vector Pressures shifted from bearish to bullish
direction today. If this holds up through the next few days, the avoid
signals will be removed with buy signals for several ETF’s.
Nov
10, 2009-Tue-There were no major events today. However, bullishly maturing
Foce Vectors with declining Vector Pressure is a bit discerning.
Nov
9, 2009-Mon-Force Vectors for major indices and ETF’s crossed above Vector
Pressure today. These Force Vectors are bullishly mature and with minimal
battle energy to fend off additional attacks by the bear.
Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-