Nov 30,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
21 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Seven of thirty; bullish bias holding, near-term bearish pressure
relaxing.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Seven of thirty. Attribute remains configured with non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Non-Bearishness:
Weak; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary
weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses. You saw that last week.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Weak, but improving with the bounce north off the lower trading range
limit.
Force
Vectors:
Configurations continue supporting bullish bias, but very weak.
Vector
Pressure:
Five in
bullish domains with minority support for bullish bias. This is not as
strong as unanimous support and it no longer is configured with majority
support. However, it is not yet supporting the bear.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Improving
relaxed attitude toward continued holding.
Immediate
Tactics:
Hold until sell signals. Buy on buy signals.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Bullish, but
significantly weakened.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
Bullish bias
prevailing, but weakened.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write
any covered options in this environment.
Volume:
Configurations are now neutral.
Comment from
September 17, 2007 Configurations are shifting away from bearish
support………….
Observation
on September 18, 2007. The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not
jittery behavior. It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of
the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!
October 19,
2007 Addendum. Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the
face of the underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise
if this bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest
it is not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.
November 7,
2007 Addendum: The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting
the upper trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the
underlying bullish trend.
November 9,
2007 Addendum. Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the
bullish trend has not been reversed.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The Dow is
up 2.5% and the NASDAQ is up 1.3% since the
Short-term Indicant signaled bear on November 9, 2007. The Short-term
Indicant attributes remain insufficient for a bull signal. A Short-term
Indicant bear signal suggests the bull is not positioning itself for
dominance, regardless of the bull’s strong showing the past few days.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s are now configuring lethargically. Some
of this is due to light holiday volume at Thanksgiving. Some of it is due
to less bullish volume the past few days when compared to aggressive
bearish volume the past few weeks. In other words, recent bullish behavior
is not supported by the Indicant Volume Indicator. That does not mean this
bullish cycle will be short-lived. It does mean the probability of robust
bullish behavior remains low and that the upper trading range limit will
most likely not be eclipsed. Keep in mind this attribute can change, but
that is the current reading. Finally, as stated the past few days,
configurations support diminishing bearish tenacity, while not yet
strongly configuring in favor of the bull.
Nov 12,
2007. The major indices are moving briskly toward the lower trading range
limit. It is common for bull/bear battles to occur at the lower trading
range limit. Watch this attribute. If the major indices fall below the
lower trading range limit without a bullish response, the likelihood of
sustainable bearish behavior will increase. Use the Quick-term Indicant
exclusively for your recent buys/sells. Use the Consolidated model for
your longer-term hold positions.
Nov 28,
2007.
The major indices did not find comfort near the lower trading range limit,
suggesting the bear is not in position to gain dominance over the stock
market. The Dow is up over 500-points since it neared that lower trading
range limit last Monday. In other words, the bullish trend remains in
tact.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the SQI is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 74.0%
(annualized at 27.9%) since their respective buy signals an average of
136.5-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding
seven ETF’s at this time. They are down an average of 0.8% since their
sell signals an average of 4.0-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up an
average of 90.4% (annualized 38.3%) since the STI signaled, buy, an
average of 121.6-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there
are five ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down an average of 2.2% since
their sell signals an average of 4.3-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 16-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 32.9% (annualized at 30.2%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 55.9-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding fourteen ETF’s. They are up by an average
of 0.5% since their sell signals an average of 3.3-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There are
nine conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term
Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This
harmonious relationship, although weakened with recent bearish
expressions, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since
August 15, 2006.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Seven of the
30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average
relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by a
healthier 6.2%. Although this attribute is providing non-bearish support,
it is being threatened by the bear. That support remains minimal in spite
of bullish behavior this past week. When the ETF’s average value is below
bearish yellow, there will be no non-bearish support. Fortunately, its
relative strength improved the past few days.
Seven of the
ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive
of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 2.5% below their
bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above
bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
One of the
thirty ETF’s is contacting its breakout line. It is non-contrarian ETF#27
for the third consecutive day as of last Friday.
As stated
the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since
August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in fifty-three of the last
sixty-three trading days supports bullish bias. Non contact in eight of
the last thirty trading days suggested the upper trading range limit
successfully resisted bullish desires several weeks ago and again the past
few weeks. The market may test that again over the next few days and
weeks.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 7.8%. This remains in support of the
quick-term bullish bias. However, even with bullish aggression the past
few days, the energy required for additional bullish breakout is
increasing to the point of potential bullish lethargy.
None of the
ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines.
The average
distance from the price and breakdown is a more healthy 18.1%. This
non-bearish attribute is weakening, but this configuration is still
providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
Twenty-five
Force Vectors are moving bullishly. As stated the past few days, impending
bullish resistance to this bearish dominance is enhanced. Bullish
aggression in two of the last four days supports this outlook, but
configurations are not yet strongly bullish. All that has occurred is a
neutralization of bearish aggression.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no
option signals after Friday’s close. That is two consecutive days of no
option buy signals.
Only five
ETF
Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains. This is no longer providing
near-unanimous or majority bullish support. This is threatening to the
underlying bullish theme even with bullish expressions the past two days.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The shift
from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006
after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15,
2006.
Message from
Monday, September 17, 2007. The market is configuring nicely in support of
the impending heart and soul of bullish seasonality.
Message from
September 17, 2007. It is recommended to avoid writing covered call
options due to increased probability of quick-term and short-term
bullishness. Modified on September 24, 2007. Vector Pressure is again
positive (bullish) and not configured favorably for writing covered call
options. (Note: NYSE was up 7.3% from 09/17/07 through 10/31/07. The
NASDAQ was up 10.7% from 09/17/07 through 10/31/07).
October 16,
2007 addendum: The market is nervous about inflationary pressures. This is
a valid fundamental concern that can invite long-term bearishness. The
stock market will not tolerate high rates of inflation; nor high interest
rates.
October 17,
2007 addendum: You will notice the major indices are near their upper
limit of the trading range. That does not mean bearish dominance is about
to occur. If it does occur, your longer-term hold positions should be
maintained until the major indices approach the lower limit of the trading
range. Do not overreact to bearish threats; consider them as mere spurts
in the face of the underlying bull.
November 7,
2007 addendum. The major indices again reacted bearishly with their recent
interaction with the upper trading range limit. As long as this phenomenon
occurs with the upper trading range limit, as opposed to the lower trading
range limit, the trend remains bullish regardless of the displeasure one
endures with these bearish spurts.
November 9,
2007 addendum. The underlying bullish bias is again being threatened by
bearish aggression. Economic fundamentals are overpowering historical
standards.
November 12,
2007 addendum. Increased market volatility is not favorable to writing
options.
The
Quick-term Bull remains in tact.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is not avoiding QQQQ,
which does not support holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.
The
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant began tracking ETF#31, QID, which is
the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has
not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It will not
be included on overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It
is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during
bull markets.
QID
inclusion in overall ETF analysis will distort observations of market
divergence and convergence due to the nature of its design. For example,
precious metals and energy are contrarian but can parallel market
direction with synergistic relationships.
QID will
receive Quick-term and Short-term sell signals, but must mature more for
independent near-term observations. This comment will be removed once that
maturity is developed.
QID is down
47.0% since all three models signaled bear upon the initial offering of
this ETF 72.1-weeks ago.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Quick-term ETF Options
Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s
Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related
tours.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.Net
11/30/07
Nov 29,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
20 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Seven of thirty; bullish bias holding, near-term bearish pressure
relaxing.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Eight of thirty. Attribute remains configured with non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Non-Bearishness:
Weak; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary
weakness will invite vigorous bullish response.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Weak, but improving with the bounce north off the lower trading range
limit.
Force
Vectors:
Configurations continue supporting bullish bias, but very weak.
Vector
Pressure:
Five in
bullish domains with minority support for bullish bias. This is not as
strong as unanimous support and it no longer is configured with majority
support. However, it is not yet supporting the bear.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Improving
relaxed attitude toward continued holding.
Immediate
Tactics:
Hold until sell signals. Buy on buy signals.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Bullish, but
significantly weakened.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
Bullish bias
prevailing, but weakened.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write
any covered options in this environment.
Volume:
Configurations are now neutral.
Comment from
September 17, 2007 Configurations are shifting away from bearish
support………….
Observation
on September 18, 2007. The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not
jittery behavior. It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of
the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!
October 19,
2007 Addendum. Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the
face of the underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise
if this bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest
it is not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.
November 7,
2007 Addendum: The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting
the upper trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the
underlying bullish trend.
November 9,
2007 Addendum. Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the
bullish trend has not been reversed.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The Dow is
up 2.1% and the NASDAQ is up 1.5% since the
Short-term Indicant signaled bear on November 9, 2007. The Short-term
Indicant attributes remain insufficient for a bull signal. A Short-term
Indicant bear signal suggests the bull is not positioning itself for
dominance, regardless of the bull’s strong showing the past few days.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s are not configured strongly due to light
holiday volume. This has led to the early formation of a lethargic cycle.
However, volume on recent aggressive bullishness has been healthy. This
supports diminishing bearish tenacity, while not yet strongly configuring
in favor of the bull.
Nov 12,
2007. The major indices are moving briskly toward the lower trading range
limit. It is common for bull/bear battles to occur at the lower trading
range limit. Watch this attribute. If the major indices fall below the
lower trading range limit without a bullish response, the likelihood of
sustainable bearish behavior will increase. Use the Quick-term Indicant
exclusively for your recent buys/sells. Use the Consolidated model for
your longer-term hold positions.
Nov 28,
2007.
The major indices did not find comfort near the lower trading range limit,
suggesting the bear is not in position to gain dominance over the stock
market. The Dow is up over 500-points since it neared that lower trading
range limit last Monday. In other words, the bullish trend remains in
tact.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the SQI is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 72.7%
(annualized at 27.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of
136.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding
seven ETF’s at this time. They are down an average of 1.7% since their
sell signals an average of 3.8-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the
Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 89.1% (annualized 37.7%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of
121.4-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there are five
ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down an average of 3.4% since their
sell signals an average of 4.2-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 14-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 32.3% (annualized at 29.8%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 55.8-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding fourteen ETF’s. They are down an average
of 0.4% since their sell signals an average of 3.2-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There are
nine conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term
Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This
harmonious relationship, although weakened with recent bearish
expressions, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since
August 15, 2006.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Eight of the
30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average
relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by a
slightly healthier 5.6%. Although this attribute is providing non-bearish
support, it is being threatened by the bear. That support is now minimal.
When the ETF’s average value is below bearish yellow, there will be no
non-bearish support. Fortunately, its relative strength improved the past
few days.
Seven of the
ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive
of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.1% below their
bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above
bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
One of the
thirty ETF’s is contacting its breakout line. It is non-contrarian ETF#27
for the second consecutive day.
As stated
the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since
August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in fifty-two of the last
sixty-two trading days supports bullish bias. Non contact in eight of the
last twenty-nine trading days suggested the upper trading range limit
successfully resisted bullish desires several weeks ago and again the past
few weeks. The market may test that again over the next few days and
weeks.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 8.3%. This remains in support of the
quick-term bullish bias. However, even with bullish aggression the past
few days, the energy required for additional bullish breakout is
increasing to the point of potential bullish lethargy.
None of the
ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines.
The average
distance from the price and breakdown is a more healthy 17.5%. This
non-bearish attribute is weakening, but this configuration is still
providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
Twenty-five
Force Vectors are moving bullishly. As stated the past few days, impending
bullish resistance to this bearish dominance is enhanced. Bullish
aggression in two of the last three days supports this outlook, but
configurations are not yet strongly bullish. All that has occurred is a
neutralization of bearish aggression.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no
option signals after Thursday’s close.
Only five
ETF
Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains. This is no longer providing
near-unanimous or majority bullish support. This is threatening to the
underlying bullish theme even with bullish expressions the past two days.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The shift
from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006
after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15,
2006.
Message from
Monday, September 17, 2007. The market is configuring nicely in support of
the impending heart and soul of bullish seasonality.
Message from
September 17, 2007. It is recommended to avoid writing covered call
options due to increased probability of quick-term and short-term
bullishness. Modified on September 24, 2007. Vector Pressure is again
positive (bullish) and not configured favorably for writing covered call
options. (Note: NYSE was up 7.3% from 09/17/07 through 10/31/07. The
NASDAQ was up 10.7% from 09/17/07 through 10/31/07).
October 16,
2007 addendum: The market is nervous about inflationary pressures. This is
a valid fundamental concern that can invite long-term bearishness. The
stock market will not tolerate high rates of inflation; nor high interest
rates.
October 17,
2007 addendum: You will notice the major indices are near their upper
limit of the trading range. That does not mean bearish dominance is about
to occur. If it does occur, your longer-term hold positions should be
maintained until the major indices approach the lower limit of the trading
range. Do not overreact to bearish threats; consider them as mere spurts
in the face of the underlying bull.
November 7,
2007 addendum. The major indices again reacted bearishly with their recent
interaction with the upper trading range limit. As long as this phenomenon
occurs with the upper trading range limit, as opposed to the lower trading
range limit, the trend remains bullish regardless of the displeasure one
endures with these bearish spurts.
November 9,
2007 addendum. The underlying bullish bias is again being threatened by
bearish aggression. Economic fundamentals are overpowering historical
standards.
November 12,
2007 addendum. Increased market volatility is not favorable to writing
options.
The
Quick-term Bull remains in tact.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is not avoiding QQQQ,
which does not support holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.
The
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant began tracking ETF#31, QID, which is
the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has
not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It will not
be included on overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It
is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during
bull markets.
QID
inclusion in overall ETF analysis will distort observations of market
divergence and convergence due to the nature of its design. For example,
precious metals and energy are contrarian but can parallel market
direction with synergistic relationships.
QID will
receive Quick-term and Short-term sell signals, but must mature more for
independent near-term observations. This comment will be removed once that
maturity is developed.
QID is down
47.4% since all three models signaled bear upon the initial offering of
this ETF 72.0-weeks ago.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Quick-term ETF Options
Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s
Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related
tours.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.Net
11/29/07
Nov 28,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 11, Issue
19 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Seven of thirty; bullish bias holding, near-term bearish pressure
relaxing.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Eight of thirty. Attribute remains configured with non-bearish support.
This attribute is weakening, but configured with bearish resistance today.
Quick-term
Non-Bearishness:
Weak; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary
weakness will invite vigorous bullish response.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Weak, but improving with the bounce north off the lower trading range
limit.
Force
Vectors:
Configurations continue supporting bullish bias, but very weak.
Vector
Pressure:
Five in
bullish domains with minority support for bullish bias. This is not as
strong as unanimous support and it no longer is configured with majority
support. However, it is not yet supporting the bear.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Bear
threatening to hold positions.
Immediate
Tactics:
Hold until sell signals. Buy on buy signals.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Bullish, but
significantly weakened.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
Bullish bias
prevailing, but weakened.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write
any covered options in this environment.
Volume:
Configurations are supporting bearish bias on a near-term basis, but as
stated last Monday, slackening in that support.
Comment from
September 17, 2007 Configurations are shifting away from bearish
support………….
Observation
on September 18, 2007. The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not
jittery behavior. It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of
the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!
October 19,
2007 Addendum. Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the
face of the underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise
if this bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest
it is not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.
November 7,
2007 Addendum: The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting
the upper trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the
underlying bullish trend.
November 9,
2007 Addendum. Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the
bullish trend has not been reversed.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The Dow is
up 1.9% and the NASDAQ is up 1.3% since the
Short-term Indicant signaled bear on November 9, 2007. Although
disappointing to those desiring on-going bullish behavior, the Short-term
Indicant attributes remain insufficient for a bull signal. A Short-term
Indicant bear signal suggests the bull is not positioning itself for
dominance.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s are not configured strongly due to light
holiday volume. This has led to the early formation of a lethargic cycle.
However, volume today and yesterday on aggressive bullish behavior was
relatively high. This supports diminishing bearish tenacity, while not yet
strongly configuring in favor of the bull.
As stated
the past several weeks, robust volume on aggressive bearishness
invigorated the bear. This configuration had been increasingly supporting
bearish behavior. As stated yesterday, it is the early stages of no
longer supporting dynamic bearish support. Today’s 300-plus point Dow rise
provided a testament to that prognosis.
Nov 12,
2007. The major indices are moving briskly toward the lower trading range
limit. It is common for bull/bear battles to occur at the lower trading
range limit. Watch this attribute. If the major indices fall below the
lower trading range limit without a bullish response, the likelihood of
sustainable bearish behavior will increase. Use the Quick-term Indicant
exclusively for your recent buys/sells. Use the Consolidated model for
your longer-term hold positions.
Nov 28,
2007.
The major indices did not find comfort near the lower trading range limit,
suggesting the bear is not in position to gain dominance over the stock
market. The Dow is up 546-points since it neared that lower trading range
limit last Monday. In other words, the bullish trend remains in tact.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the SQI is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 72.7%
(annualized at 27.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of
136.2-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding
seven ETF’s at this time. They are down an average of 1.3% since their
sell signals an average of 3.7-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
two buy signals and no sell signals. In addition to the buy signals, the
Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up an average
of 96.8% (annualized 37.8%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of
131.8-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there are five
ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down an average of 3.0% since their
sell signals an average of 4.1-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 14-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 32.3% (annualized at 29.9%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 55.6-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding sixteen ETF’s. They are down an average of
0.2% since their sell signals an average of 3.0-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There are
nine conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term
Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This
harmonious relationship, although weakened with recent bearish
expressions, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since
August 15, 2006.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Eight of the
30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average
relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by a
slightly healthier 5.6%. Although this attribute is providing non-bearish
support, it is being threatened by the bear. That support is now minimal.
When the ETF’s average value is below bearish yellow, there will be no
non-bearish support. Fortunately, its relative strength improved today.
Seven of the
ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive
of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.0% below their
bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above
bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance. Unfortunately, the
average relative position is now without the full support of red bulls. As
stated the past few days, this is encouraging the bear. However, bullish
aggression the past two days has demonstrated bullish resistance to
bearish aggression.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
One of the
thirty ETF’s is contacting its breakout line. It is non-contrarian ETF#27.
As stated
the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since
August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in fifty-one of the last
sixty-one trading days supports bullish bias. Non contact in eight of the
last twenty-eight trading days suggested the upper trading range limit
successfully resisted bullish desires several weeks ago and again the past
few weeks. As stated the past several days, it is doubtful the bull will
overpower the upper trading range limit on the near-term horizon.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 8.3%. This remains in support of the
quick-term bullish bias. However, even with bullish aggression the past
two days, the energy required for additional bullish breakout is
increasing to the point of potential bullish lethargy.
None of the
ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. Recent contact encourages the
bear.
The average
distance from the price and breakdown is a more healthy 17.5%. This
non-bearish attribute is weakening, but this configuration is still
providing non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
Eleven Force
Vectors are moving bullishly. As stated the past few days, impending
bullish resistance to this bearish dominance is enhanced. Bullish
aggression the past two days supports this outlook, but configurations are
not yet strongly bullish. All that has occurred is a neutralization of
bearish aggression.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no
option signals after Wednesday’s close. Unfortunately, today’s bullish
expression was not friendly to Monday’s put option buy signals.
Only five
ETF
Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains. This is no longer providing
near-unanimous or majority bullish support. This is threatening to the
underlying bullish theme even with bullish expressions the past two days.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant