November 2007 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Reports

November 25, 2007 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Special Announcement

In anticipation of the impending bear market, the daily stock market report will track a purely contrarian exchange traded fund. Its charts can be viewed by clicking the links in the first sentence of the following paragraph.

The Quick-term, Short-term, and Consolidated Quick-Short Indicant models are now tracking ETF #31. It is QID, which moves bearishly during bull markets and bullishly during bear markets. Although this ETF is relatively new, it has developed enough history for the daily stock market report to track. Charts of QID can be viewed by clicking the links in the previous sentence.

QID configurations and attributes will not be included in the ETF performance statistics and summaries. This fund is specifically deigned to be completely contrarian to the overall stock market and specifically to the QQQQ, ETF#01. The nature of its design, if included, would distort convergent and divergent economic and stock market synergies. Therefore, its performance summary will stand-alone.

ETF#31 is a cousin to Profunds Ultra Short, which is tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

The Market Finds Unfavorable Economic Conditions

Although the market is sometimes wrong, it appears to have evaluated several changing attributes as unfavorable. Rising oil prices continues to threaten inflationary concerns. The plummeting strength of the U.S. Dollar adds to inflationary concerns.

The market is not impressed with rapidly declining interest rates. That will further weaken the dollar. The fastest solution to rising energy costs is to decrease demand. Reducing interest rates will prop up demand, which fuels inflationary concerns.

As repeatedly stated the market does not like inflation, deflation, economic recession, or corporate incompetence. Deflation is not a concern at this time. Inflation and economic recession both confront the stock market. Bigger portions of consumer’s personal budgets are allocated to energy. This depresses demand for other consumer products. The producer’s of those other products are projected to endure reduced production volumes. That, coupled with rising energy costs, will depress corporate profitability.

Six of the ten major indices tracked by the Mid-term Indicant are now signaling bear.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bear this past weekend for another major index. The S&P400, Mid-caps, fell victim to bearish behavior. This index fell below the Mid-term Indicant Trip Line, the bullish red curve, and the lower trading range limit. Click the below link to view its chart.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-09-SP400-Curr.htm

The Dow is down 0.5% since its bear signal on November 9, 2007. It has yet to rebound sufficiently, at the very least, to induce fluttering. It increased by 25% in its previous bullish cycle from November 5, 2004 to its recent bear signal. Click the below link to see it.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-01-DJIA-Curr.htm

The S&P500 Index increased 18.1% in its previous bull cycle from November 4, 2005 until its bear signal on November 9, 2007. It is now down 0.9% since that recent bear signal.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-02-SP500-Curr.htm

Encouragingly, the NASDAQ has yet to endure a bear signal. It is up 33.7% since its last Mid-term Indicant signal on October 1, 2004. As you can see from the below link, that bull cycle is barely surviving.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-03-NASDAQ%20Curr.htm

The S&P100, which represents the largest of the large caps, nearly fluttered back to bull status two weeks ago, but also succumbed to bearish influences last week. It is down 0.3% since its bear signal on November 9, 2007.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-04-SP100-Curr.htm

The NASDAQ100, which relates directly to the QQQQ, has resisted falling to bearish status, but also nearing that condition. It is up 39.6% since its bull signal on October 1, 2004.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-05-NAS100-Curr.htm

Rising energy cost took its toll on the Dow Jones Transports. It is down 5.3% since its bear signal on November 9, 2007. It was up 57.0% from its previous bull cycle from March 26, 2004 through its recent bear signal.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-06-DJT-Curr.htm

The Dow Utilities, which has been the strongest index since October 2002, is up 25.9% since its last signal on June 26, 2006. As you can see from the below link, it is resisting recent bearish ambition.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-07-DJU-Curr.htm

The Dow Composites will receive a bear signal next week if the overall market is bearish. It is the last index holding the original secular bull signal date of October 25, 2002. It is up 83.4% since then; mostly on the strength of the Dow Utilities.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-08-DJC-Curr.htm

The Small Caps is the most volatile index. It has moved bearishly the most since its previous peak. It is down 1.9% since its bear signal on November 9, 2007.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-10-S&P600-Curr.htm

Four of the past five weeks have endured a combination of bearish convergence or bearish divergence. Four consecutive weeks of bearish convergence not only suggests bearish sustainability, it also is a leading indicator to economic recession.

The market can be wrong. There may not be a recession. There may not be reduced corporate earnings. There may not be inflation. However, right now, it sees any one or a combination of all three.

Speculation is not necessary. Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and sixteen sell signals.

In addition to the sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 92-stocks and funds of the 345- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 13.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 16.9-weeks ago.

There were only 31-stocks and funds avoided at this time last year. Those avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 12.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 19.2-weeks earlier.

Two years ago, on Nov 25, 2005, the Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 51-stocks and funds that were down an average of 16.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 25.8-weeks earlier. Three years ago on Nov 26, 2004 there were 19-avoided stocks and funds. They were down by an average of 43.4% from their respective sell signals an average of 54.8-weeks earlier. On Nov 22, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was avoiding only 29-stocks and funds out of 296-tracked at that time. They were down by an average of 25.2% since their sell signals an average of 33.8-weeks earlier. As you can see, there were very few avoided stocks in the previous presidential election year of 2003. Five years ago on Nov 23, 2002, there were 11-avoided stocks and funds. They were down an average of 30.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 21.8-weeks earlier.

Although there were no buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 237 of the 345-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 145.2%. That annualizes to 58.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 237-stocks and funds for an average of 128.9-weeks.

One year ago, on Nov 24, 2006, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 311-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 83.5-weeks. Those 311-stocks and funds were up by an average of 107.6% (annualized at 67.0%). The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 269-stocks and funds of the 320-tracked two years ago on Nov 25, 2005. They were up by an average of 97.3% (annualized at 62.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of 80.9-weeks earlier. There were 301-stocks and funds with hold signals on Nov 26, 2004 since their buy signals an average of 53.1-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 70.4% (annualized at 68.9%).

The Indicant was only tracking 296-stocks and funds in 2002-2003, and early 2004. On Nov 22, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 262-stocks and funds out of 296-tracked. They were up by an average of 51.7% (annualized at 79.9%) since their buy signals an average of 33.6-weeks earlier. Five years ago, on Nov 23, 2002, there were 268-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. They were up an average of 20.9% (annualized at 115.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 9.4-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All updated information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is imbedded in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months.

The Daily Indicant Stock Market Report for the last trading day of the current week is near the conclusion of this weekly stock market report. It is emailed each weekend, separately, so you can read it, either as a separate document, or in this document.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 78.2% since its secular low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 133.1% and the S&P500 is up 85.5%. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 129.7%. The secular bull that originated on October 9, 2002 no longer remains solid, but it remains a bull in spite of recent bearishness.

The NASDAQ is down 48.6% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 5.7% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The S&P500 recently set a new peak, but the old peak will be tracked until the NASDAQ sets a new one. The Dow is up 10.7% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. It has expressed no timidity in roaming above the new peak area, until recently. The NASDAQ needs to climb 94.4% to achieve a new record high. Do not be surprised if this occurs after the year, 2025.

The Dow is up 4.2% so far this year. The S&P500 is up 1.6% and the NASDAQ up 7.5%. At this time last year, the Dow was up 15.0%, with the S&P500 up 12.6% and the NASDAQ up 11.8%. With the exception of the NASDAQ, the major indices remain behind last year’s year-to-date performance due to recent bearish aggressions. The upper range trading limit has imposed an impenetrable lid to bullish ambition.

The NASDAQ YTD-2001 was down 23.0%. It was down 24.7% through this week of 2002. It recovered with a gain of 41.8% by this weekend of 2003. After being down most of the year due to the meandering bear market, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality elevated it to being up by 4.0% on this weekend 2004. At this time of year in 2005, it was up only by 3.9% due to the same meandering bear from 2004. At this time last year, it was again up by 11.8%. This year, it is up 7.5%. As you can see, it is depressed this year from the last presidential pre-election year of 2003.

As you can see, the only years the NASDAQ has been up at this time of year has been the presidential pre-election years (2003 and 2007) and last year’s mid-term election year.

You will notice the Dow endured less volatility than the NASDAQ this century. The Dow was down 7.7% on this weekend in 2001. In 2002, it was down by 12.1%, but with less severity than the NASDAQ’s 24.7% drop in 2002. In the last presidential election year of 2003, the NASDAQ’s 41.8% rise delivered more excitement than the Dow’s humble 15.4% increase.

Many of your recall the meandering bear market in 2004 where the Dow was up a mere 0.4% as the market concluded deep bearish seasonality. The meandering bear continued through this week in 2005 with the Dow rising by a mere 1.2%. On this weekend, the Dow was up 15.0% in 2006, which conflicted with historical standards and seasonal normalcy. The Indicant stated the bullish bias shift on August 15, 2006 obsoleted historical standards. More than half that increased occurred from August 15, 2006. As previously stated, so far this year, the Dow is up 4.2%, which is the third most bullish year-to-date performance this century.

Since the expiration of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality in late January 2007, the Dow is up 2.8%, while the NASDAQ is up 5.4% and the S&P500 is up by 0.2%. Even with recent bearish behavior, all the major indices are up since the expiration of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality in late January of this year. This is a testament to the strength of the bull even though it has undergone its third major bearish cycle of this year.

The Dow is up 15.6% since the Short-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled bias to bull on August 16, 2006. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are up 12.1% and 22.8%, respectively, since then.

Where is the market headed for the remainder of this year? Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a stop loss of 10% on recent buys due to the number of Mid-term Indicant bear signals along with Quick-term Indicant limited support for bullish bias.

Use a 10% trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables for your longer-term hold positions. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 10% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 10% trailing stop loss.

If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 20% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending and excessive concerns about social issues. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money. High performing companies remain focused on honoring the investments made by their shareholders.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds with those “bearish” attributes. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report. Use the Quick-term Indicant as a guide in your decision-making processes. If the stock price is falling in a Quick-term Bear market, it is not advisable to buy.

Do not short on stocks if they are up from an avoid signal. Stocks go up more often than they go down. Stocks have a tendency to march to their own drumbeat when rising. Some stocks rise and continue to rise in the most severe of bear markets. Short selling opens up an opportunity for the snakes on Wall Street to take everything you own. They can cause a stock to rise at their whim and without any regard to fundamental reason. It usually does not make sense to bet against the sweat and toil of hard-working people.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, they were included in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public, while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only. The below table is public information and not updated on a frequent basis.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Interest rate declines accelerated last week after flattening slightly in the prior week. Their bearish cycle/trend continues to be undeniable.

As stated the past two weeks, falling interest rates typically accompany stock market bullish behavior. The primary exception to stock market bullishness with declining interest rates is inflation or deflation. Inflation is the primary threat. If the CPI begins to rise, falling interest rates will not stimulate bullish behavior.

Also, as stated the past two weeks, the U.S. Dollar generally weakens with declining interest rates. A weak dollar increases the cost of imports, which is inflationary. On the other hand, U.S. exports become more competitive, but that is becoming less meaningful with the international economy. At any rate, the bias is increasingly inflationary.

This statement will remain until it becomes irrelevant. Commodity prices continue to increase. Their rise in prices could also be labeled as dramatic. This does not bode well with respect to inflation.

This statement will remain until it becomes irrelevant. With the exception of the favorable trend in interest rates, other economic trends suggest a troubling future to this bull market.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 is up 389.8% since the April 13, 2001 buy signal. Its annualized growth since that buy signal is 58.1%. It moved to the north in 39 of the past 63-weeks. It has been solidly bullish in ten of the last fourteen weeks, but bearish the past three weeks.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28, is up 22.1% since its buy signal on September 7, 2007. It is annualized at 103.3% since that buy signal. This fund was mildly bullish last week after aggressive bearishness in the prior week.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, which is isolated in the energy sector, is up 331.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2002. It is annualizing at 62.1%.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, is up 244.4% (annualized at 51.7%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on April 5, 2003. Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, is up 188.2% (annualized at 43.4%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, is up 188.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It is annualized at 43.4%.

These energy related funds were mildly bearish last week.

Investors in these funds are supporting a 1970’s type of market with high inflation and high oil prices. As long as capitalism remains in vogue around the globe and alternative sources of energy continue to lag exponentially increasing demand, a long-term perspective on holding strategy is appropriate.

The SQI (Consolidated Short-term and Quick-term Indicant) model signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on August 3, 2005. It is up 86.7% since then. It is annualized at 37.0%. This fund has been bullish in eleven of the past thirteen weeks. It was solidly bullish last week.

The SQI signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on March 26, 2003. It is up 244.4% (annualized at 51.7%). This fund was also solidly bullish last week.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and one new bear signal. As stated, the past several weeks expect an increased number of bull/bear signals with fluttering behavior due to nearing the conclusion of the election cycle phenomenon.

There are four bulls. They are up by an average of 45.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 168-weeks ago. That annualizes to 14.2%.

In addition to the new bear signal, there are four bears. They are down by an average of 1.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell two weeks ago.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is now at $39,322,197

That beats buy and hold performance of $1,984,879 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $186,015. That beats buy and hold’s $141,121 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $217,260. That beats buy and hold’s $90,035 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,881.1%, 31.8%, and 141.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the MTI-RYS model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by nearly 2,000% over the past 100+ years.

Click here to go to the current Mid-term Indicant assessment of the ten major indices.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant continues avoiding ProFunds Ultra Short. It is down 34.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on September 15, 2006. Historical norms of market cyclicality suggest the next buying opportunity for this fund may not occur until 2009. However, the recent bear signal for several major indices suggest an increasing probability of this funds profit production before 2009.

Do no buy it just yet. Wait for the Quick-term Indicant to offer support.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Always remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 348.4% (annualized at 21.6%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 838-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, and inflation have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Only five of thirty; bullish bias holding, under near-term bearish pressure.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Twelve of thirty. Attribute remains configured with non-bearish support, but weakening.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Weak; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses. (You saw that with reports of declining oil prices and the 300+ Dow gain on Nov 13, 2007). Since then, oil prices have increased and thus inviting the inflationary threats the bear tends to enjoy.

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Weak. The July-August bearish threat expired on Monday, September 17, 2007. The Heart and Soul of bullish seasonality began on that day. On October 17 and October 19, the market reacted bearishly to the upper trading range limits. This again occurred on November 7, 2007. Although resistance to bullish desires are obvious, consider this phenomenon as a bearish spurt in the face of the underlying bullish trend, but barely a spurt. The major indices are now approaching the lower trading range limit. Falling below that limit with shift bias to bearish.

Force Vectors: Configurations continue supporting bullish bias, but very weak.

Vector Pressure: Six in bullish domains with minority support for bullish bias. This is not as strong as unanimous support and it no longer is configured with majority support. However, it is not yet supporting the bear.

Long-term Hold Positions: Bear threatening to hold positions.

Immediate Tactics: Hold until sell signals. Preserve cash.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish, but significantly weakened.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakened.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write any covered options in this environment.

Volume: Configurations are supporting bullish bias.

Comment from September 17, 2007

Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….

Observation on September 18, 2007. The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not jittery behavior. It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!

October 19, 2007 Addendum. Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the face of the underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise if this bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest it is not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.

November 7, 2007 Addendum: The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting the upper trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the underlying bullish trend.

November 9, 2007 Addendum. Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the bullish trend has not been reversed.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Dow is down 0.5% and the NASDAQ is down 1.2% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bear on November 9, 2007. Although disappointing to those desiring on-going bullish behavior, the Short-term Indicant attributes remain insufficient for a bull signal. A Short-term Indicant bear signal suggests the bull is not positioning itself for dominance.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s fell sharply with holiday lethargy. This disrupted the robust cycle that favored the bear with the current near-term cycle.

As stated the past several weeks, robust volume on aggressive bearishness invigorated the bear. This configuration has been increasingly supporting bearish behavior.

Nov 12, 2007. The major indices are moving briskly toward the lower trading range limit. It is common for bull/bear battles to occur at the lower trading range limit. Watch this attribute. If the major indices fall below the lower trading range limit without a bullish response, the likelihood of sustainable bearish behavior will increase. Use the Quick-term Indicant exclusively for your recent buys/sells. Use the Consolidated model for your longer-term hold positions. NYSE down

Nov 13, 2007. Aggressive bullish expression could be viewed as a bullish spurt in the face of near-term bearishness. With respect to underlying bullish trend, recent bearishness is a spurt. However, near-term spurt behavior is always the first step toward sustainable bearish behavior. The near-term behavior is under study, but still remains classified as a bearish spurt. (Dow down

Nov 14, 2007. The NYSE is within a couple of percentage points of the lower trading range limit. The NASDAQ has a little more room to fall before contact is made. Contact with the lower trading range limit should induce abnormal volatility. Keep your eyes on this particular attribute. If the market falls below the lower trading range limit, the Indicant will be more liberal is generating sell signals, depending on other attributes. Please read on.

Nov 16, 2007. The major indices responded bullishly as they approached the lower trading range limit. That suggests an increased probability of two possible behavior patterns; 1) fluttering can occur or 2) the market will not collapse into a deep and protracted bear. Two of the four behavioral patterns are non-bearish. The other two are robust bullishness and robust bearishness. Configurations at this time do not support either of the latter two behavioral patterns.

Nov 23, 2007. The bullish trend remains in tact. Near-term bearishness has inflicted enough of its influence, the major indices are now situated near their lower trading range limits. Falling below the lower trading range limit will increase the probability of sustaining the bear to greater depths and/or bearishness for an extended period.

Nov 24, 2007. The NYSE and NASDAQ are down 7.1% and 9.2% since their last daily closing peak prices on 10/31/07. A 20% decline is technically classified at a bear market. The NASDAQ is “technically nearly half-way there. The last time the NASDAQ declined from it former peak was an 89% drop.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 69.1% (annualized at 26.2%) since their respective buy signals an average of 135.5-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding seven ETF’s at this time. They are down an average of 3.7% since their sell signals an average of 3.0-weeks ago.

The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up an average of 92.7% (annualized 36.4%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 131.1-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there are seven ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down an average of 3.9% since their sell signals an average of 3.0-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 16-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 29.5% (annualized at 27.6%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 54.9-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding fourteen ETF’s. They are down an average of 2.4% since their sell signals an average of 2.3-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are seven conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This harmonious relationship, although weakened with recent bearish expressions, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August 15, 2006.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Twelve of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by a mere 3.4%. Although this attribute is providing non-bearish support, it is being threatened by the bear. When the ETF’s average value is below bearish yellow, there will be no non-bearish support.

Five of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 5.2% below their bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance. Unfortunately, the average relative position is now without the full support of red bulls. This is encouraging the bear.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

The above heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines (bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines (bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely, significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are best.

One of the thirty ETF’s is contacting its breakout line. It is semi-contrarian ETF#14-Long Government. This is the third time in the past five trading days this ETF has contacted its breakout line. Fundamentally, this suggests money is flowing into this security.

As stated the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in forty-nine of the last fifty-seven trading days supports bullish bias. Non contact in seven of the last twenty-five trading days suggested the upper trading range limit successfully resisted bullish desires several weeks ago and again the past few weeks. At this point, it is doubtful the bull will overpower the upper trading range limit on the near-term horizon.

The average distance from breakout contact is 10.1%. This remains in support of the quick-term bullish bias, but the energy required for additional bullish breakout is increasing to the point of potential bullish lethargy.

None of the ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. Recent contact encourages the bear.

The average distance from the price and breakdown is 14.6%. Although significant energy is required for bearish dominance, its potential is increasing. Although this non-bearish attribute is weakening, this configuration provides non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

You can scan the Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to the previous page.

Two Force Vectors are moving bullishly. That is a decrease from last Wednesday, which supports near-term bearishness. Although some Force Vectors are increasing, they remain deep inside bearish domains. Significant energy must be expended to move to neutrality, which suggests an increased probability of bearish momentum. However, do not be surprised at bullish expressions in the next few days. That should elevate Force Vectors. Behavior around neutral position will obviate the market’s intermediate to short-term intentions.

Force Vector’s were shifting north late last week. They have since shifted to the south, but many have stabilized. This recent bullish cycle never matured into a robust configuration, suggesting weak bullish resistance to bearish assertions. That resistance proved to be minimal, as the bear gained momentum. Now, it is time to observe behavior the next few days. If they turn crisply and robustly to the north, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality will gain influence. If they turn harshly to the south, the bear will gain momentum. That is a significant threat to the underlying bullish trend.

Consider bearish expressions as mere spurts in the face of underlying bullish bias, which will offer more buying and call-option opportunities. Recent bearish aggression remains configured as a spurt, but barely..

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There was one call option buy signal after Friday’s close. This was Gold’s ETF and does not need contrarian market behavior to be profitable. However, you still should have already stalked some options and if interested offer deeply discounted buy prices and hope for intraday contrarian behavior. Do not despair the contrarian movement does not occur.

Wednesday’s bearish aggression supported buying yesterday’s call option. As stated last Wednesday, a bullish response on Friday will support profit. There was a bullish bounce on Friday, but not very aggressive. Nevertheless, a profit should have been enjoyed. Selling on Monday morning at the market will not be out of line.

Six ETF Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains. This is no longer providing near-unanimous or majority bullish support. This is threatening to the underlying bullish theme.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Remember options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take. There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year. Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both perspectives.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The shift from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15, 2006.

Message from Monday, September 17, 2007. The market is configuring nicely in support of the impending heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

Message from September 17, 2007. It is recommended to avoid writing covered call options due to increased probability of quick-term and short-term bullishness. Modified on September 24, 2007. Vector Pressure is again positive (bullish) and not configured favorably for writing covered call options. (Note: NYSE was up 7.3% from 09/17/07 through 10/31/07. The NASDAQ was up 10.7% from 09/17/07 through 10/31/07).

October 16, 2007 addendum: The market is nervous about inflationary pressures. This is a valid fundamental concern that can invite long-term bearishness. The stock market will not tolerate high rates of inflation; nor high interest rates. (Note: The NYSE and NASDAQ are down 5.4% and 6.1% since this comment).

October 17, 2007 addendum: You will notice the major indices are near their upper limit of the trading range. That does not mean bearish dominance is about to occur. If it does occur, your longer-term hold positions should be maintained until the major indices approach the lower limit of the trading range. Do not overreact to bearish threats; consider them as mere spurts in the face of the underlying bull.

November 7, 2007 addendum. The major indices again reacted bearishly with their recent interaction with the upper trading range limit. As long as this phenomenon occurs with the upper trading range limit, as opposed to the lower trading range limit, the trend remains bullish regardless of the displeasure one endures with these bearish spurts.

November 9, 2007 addendum. The underlying bullish bias is again being threatened by bearish aggression. Economic fundamentals are overpowering historical standards.

November 12, 2007 addendum. Increased market volatility is not favorable to writing options.

The Quick-term Bull remains in tact.

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is not avoiding QQQQ, which does not support holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant began tracking ETF#31, QID, which is the ETF cousin to ProFunds Ultra Short. This ETF is relatively new and has not yet developed enough data to formally track its outlook. It will not be included on overall ETF statistics because it is purely contrarian. It is designed to move bullishly during bear markets and bearishly during bull markets.

QID inclusion in overall ETF analysis will distort observations of market divergence and convergence due to the nature of its design. For example, precious metals and energy are contrarian but can parallel market direction with synergistic relationships.

QID will receive Quick-term and Short-term sell signals, but must mature more for independent near-term observations. This comment will be removed once that maturity is developed.

QID is down 43.5% since all three models signaled bear upon the initial offering of this ETF 71.1-weeks ago.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Divergence versus Convergence

After enduring bearish convergence in three of the last five weeks, interrupted by bullish divergence two weeks, endure bearish divergence last week. The energy sector was up, while most of the other sectors were down. Unfortunately, this bodes well for those desiring bearish behavior.

Indicant Conclusion

Bullish convergence two weeks ago is configured as a bullish spurt in the face of bearish dominance.

The upper trading range limit stopped bullish ambition on the last two micro-cycles to the north. The question now, as asked last week, will the lower trading limit act similarly as a depressant to bearish ambition? We are about to find out. Keep your eye on the Short-term Indicant.

As stated last week, substantive economic fears continue to threaten the bull. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality, so far this season, is not capable of establishing barriers to excessive bearish ambitions. Strong economic fundamentals influence the market regardless of technical indicators.

Bearish expressions on a Quick-term Indicant basis should continue to be considered as mere spurts in the face of the underlying bullish bias. Although this remains technically correct, this message may change in the next few days/weeks.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

In addition, once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

11/25/07

November 18, 2007 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

This Week’s Report

Mild Bullish Bounce Stops Bearish Convergence

Until last week, three of the previous four weeks were configured with bearish convergence. Four consecutive weeks of bearish convergence correlates as a predecessor to sustainable stock market bearishness.

The one week in the previous four-week cycle interrupted bearish convergence with bearish divergence. In that particular week, most sectors were bearish, while the energy sector was bullish. Bearish divergence is preferred for those who desire mild recessions. Although a bullish energy sector is not always supportive of a bullish stock market, the implication of demand for energy suggests a mild recession.

Bearish convergence on the other hand suggests the economy will drive little demand from any sector, including energy. That suggests strong recessionary attributes, which leads to deep and sustainable bear markets.

Although recent stock market bearish behavior is discerning to most, that one week of bearish divergence suggested mildness to any potential economic recession. In other words, there will be demand for energy. Last week’s bullish divergence was encouraging, although mild.

Interestingly, a bearish energy sector prevented a bullish convergent configuration last week. The stock market configured last week with a hint of economic optimism. That is reduced demand for energy with continuing economic growth.

Rest assured last week’s configuration is not a concluding testimonial to economic projections. It is simply a snap shot of the market’s interpretation of economic activity. Although the bullish bias that originated on August 15, 2006 remains in tact, it is seriously threatened. The bearish expression last February/March did not phase the bullish bias at all. It was a purely fake and a headline induced bearish spurt.

The bearish expressions last summer from the sub-primed lending crisis threatened the bullish bias, but the bull quickly resumed power and shattered those traders who had positioned themselves for massive profits with their anticipated stock market crash.

However, this particular threat has configurations suggesting an increased probability of meandering stock market behavior with some fluttering. Any southerly movement can cascade into a solid bear market. Last week’s bullish bounce suggests the market is not yet committed to a bearish cycle. However, some attributes are suggesting an increased likelihood the economy’s next recession is not in the distant future and that the next bearish cycle will precede the next recession.

Speculation is not necessary, albeit done periodically. Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and eight sell signals.

In addition to the sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 84-stocks and funds of the 345- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 10.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 17.0-weeks ago.

There were only 33-stocks and funds avoided at this time last year. Those avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 11.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 18.7-weeks earlier.

Two years ago, on Nov 18, 2005, the Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 50-stocks and funds that were down an average of 17.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 24.8-weeks earlier. Three years ago on Nov 19, 2004 there were 16-avoided stocks and funds. They were down by an average of 45.4% from their respective sell signals an average of 55.5-weeks earlier. On Nov 15, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was avoiding only 22-stocks and funds out of 296-tracked at that time. They were down by an average of 24.3% since their sell signals an average of 33.3-weeks earlier. As you can see, there were very few avoided stocks in the previous presidential election year of 2003. Five years ago on Nov 16, 2002, there were 23-avoided stocks and funds. They were down an average of 22.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 14.1-weeks earlier.

Although there were no buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 253 of the 345-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 141.1%. That annualizes to 59.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 253-stocks and funds for an average of 123.2-weeks.

One year ago, on Nov 17, 2006, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 310-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 82.8-weeks. Those 310-stocks and funds were up by an average of 109.7% (annualized at 68.9%). The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 265-stocks and funds of the 320-tracked two years ago on Nov 18, 2005. They were up by an average of 94.6% (annualized at 60.9%) since their respective buy signals an average of 80.7-weeks earlier. There were 299-stocks and funds with hold signals on Nov 19, 2004 since their buy signals an average of 52.4-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 67.1% (annualized at 67.1%).

The Indicant was only tracking 296-stocks and funds in 2002-2003, and early 2004. On Nov 15, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 264-stocks and funds out of 296-tracked. They were up by an average of 54.9% (annualized at 89.6%) since their buy signals an average of 31.9-weeks earlier. Five years ago, on Nov 16, 2002, there were 268-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 295 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. They were up an average of 14.4% (annualized at 88.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of 8.4-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

All updated information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 80.8% since its secular low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 136.7% and the S&P500 is up 87.8%. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 133.5%. The underlying bull that originated on October 9, 2002 no longer remains solid, but it remains a bull in spite of recent bearishness.

The NASDAQ is down 47.8% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 4.5% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The S&P500 recently set a new peak, but the old peak will be tracked until the NASDAQ sets a new one. The Dow is up 12.4% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. It has expressed no timidity in roaming in the new peak area, until recently. The NASDAQ needs to climb 91.4% to achieve a new record high. Do not be surprised if this occurs after the year, 2025.

The Dow is up 5.7% so far this year. The S&P500 is up 2.9% and the NASDAQ up 9.2%. At this time last year, the Dow was up 14.8%, with the S&P500 up 12.1% and the NASDAQ up 11.1%. With the exception of the NASDAQ, the major indices remain behind last year’s year-to-date performance due to recent bearish aggressions. The upper range trading limit has imposed an impenetrable lid to bullish ambition.

The NASDAQ YTD-2001 was down 23.2%. It was down 27.7% through this week of 2002. It recovered with a gain of 44.5% by this weekend of 2003. After being down most of the year due to the meandering bear market, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality elevated it to being up by 3.8% on this weekend 2004. At this time of year in 2005, it was up only by 0.6% due to the same meandering bear from 2004. At this time last year, it was again up by 11.1%. This year, it is up 9.2%. As you can see, it is depressed this year from the last presidential pre-election year of 2003.

As you can see, the only years the NASDAQ has been up at this time of year has been the presidential pre-election years (2003 and 2007) and last year’s mid-term election year.

You will notice the Dow endured less volatility than the NASDAQ this century. The Dow was down 8.5% on this weekend in 2001. In 2002, it was down by 14.4%, but with less severity than the NASDAQ’s 27.7% drop in 2002. In the last presidential election year of 2003, the NASDAQ’s 44.5% rise delivered more excitement than the Dow’s humble 17.1% increase.

Many of your recall the meandering bear market in 2004 where the Dow was up a mere 0.3% as the market concluded deep bearish seasonality. The meandering bear continued through 2005 with the Dow dropping by 1.0%. On this weekend, the Dow was up 14.8% in 2006, which conflicted with historical standards and seasonal normalcy. The Indicant stated the bullish bias shift on August 15, 2006 obsoleted historical standards. As previously stated, so far this year, the Dow is up 5.7%, which is the third most bullish year-to-date performance this century.

Since the expiration of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality in late January 2007, the Dow is up 4.4%, while the NASDAQ is up 7.0% and the S&P500 is up by 1.4%. Even with recent bearish behavior, all the major indices are up since the expiration of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality in late January of this year. This is a testament to the strength of the bull even though it has undergone its third major bearish expression of this year.

The Dow is up 17.3% since the Short-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled bias to bull on August 16, 2006. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are up 13.5% and 24.7%, respectively, since then.

Where is the market headed for the remainder of this year? Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a stop loss of 8% on recent buys because of the Quick-term Indicant’s bullish bias.

Stock and Fund Update

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Interest rate declines slowed last week, but their bearish cycle/trend is undeniable. The policy makers were forced to guard against inflation due to rising oil prices. Now, they are in somewhat of embarrassment mode in their attempt to curtail a recession. If a recession occurs, the policy makers helped initiate its cause by fighting the inflation battle when, in hindsight, the focus should have been on economic robustness. The declining interest configuration is somewhat dramatic. The cooling economy should foster a continuation of this drama. The design remain to bolster the economy in this pre-election year.

As stated last week, falling interest rates typically accompany stock market bullish behavior. The primary exception to stock market bullishness with declining interest rates is inflation or deflation. Inflation is the primary threat. If the CPI begins to rise, falling interest rates will not stimulate bullish behavior.

Also, as stated last week, the U.S. Dollar generally weakens with declining interest rates. A weak dollar increases the cost of imports, which is inflationary. On the other hand U.S. exports become more competitive, but that is becoming less meaningful with the international economy. At any rate, the bias is increasingly inflationary.

This statement will remain until it becomes irrelevant. With the exception of the favorable trend in interest rates, other economic trends suggest a troubling future to this bull market.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 is up 399.0% since the April 13, 2001 buy signal. Its annualized growth since that buy signal is 59.7%. It moved to the north in 39 of the past 62-weeks. It has been solidly bullish in ten of the last thirteen weeks, but bearish the past two weeks.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28, is up 20.1% since its buy signal on September 7, 2007. It is annualized at 103.4% since that buy signal. This fund was strongly bearish last week.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, which is isolated in the energy sector, is up 329.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2002. It is annualizing at 61.9%.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, is up 246.6% (annualized at 52.7%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on April 5, 2003. Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, is up 211.0% (annualized at 52.7%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, is up 185.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It is annualized at 42.9%.

These energy related funds were solidly bearish last week.

The SQI (Consolidated Short-term and Quick-term Indicant) model signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on August 3, 2005. It is up 78.6% since then. It is annualized at 33.9%. This fund has been bullish in ten of the past twelve weeks. It was bearish last week.

The SQI signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on March 26, 2003. It is up 238.0% (annualized at 50.5%). This fund was also deeply bearish last week.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals. As stated, the past several weeks expect an increased number of bull/bear signals with fluttering behavior due to nearing the conclusion of the election cycle phenomenon.

There are five bulls. They are up by an average of 40.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 147-weeks ago. That annualizes to 14.4%.

There are four bears. They are up by an average of 0.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell last weekend.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is now at $39,915,655

That beats buy and hold performance of $2,014,684 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $188,344. That beats buy and hold’s $142,888 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $220,660. That beats buy and hold’s $91,144 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,881.2%, 31.8%, and 141.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here to go to the current Mid-term Indicant assessment of the ten major indices.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant continues avoiding ProFunds Ultra Short. It is down 30.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on September 15, 2006. Historical norms of market cyclicality suggest the next buying opportunity for this fund may not occur until 2009. However, the recent bear signal for several major indices suggest an increasing probability of this funds profit production before 2009.

Do no buy it just yet. Wait for the Quick-term Indicant to offer support.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Always remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 355.2% (annualized at 22.1%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 837-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, and inflation have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Seven of thirty; bullish bias holding, but under near-term bearish pressure.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Nine of thirty. Attribute remains configured with non-bearish support, but weakening.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Strong; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses. (You saw that with reports of declining oil prices and the 300+ Dow gain on Nov 13, 2007)

Short-term Non-Bearishness: Strong. The July-August bearish threat expired on Monday, September 17, 2007. The Heart and Soul of bullish seasonality began on that day. On October 17 and October 19, the market reacted bearishly to the upper trading range limits. This again occurred on November 7, 2007. Although resistance to bullish desires are obvious, consider this phenomenon as a bearish spurt in the face of the underlying bullish trend, but barely a spurt. The major indices are now approaching the lower trading range limit. Falling below that limit with shift bias to bearish. Friday’s bullish bounce offered resistance to a dominating bear.

Force Vectors: Configurations continue supporting bullish bias, but very weak.

Vector Pressure: Seven in bullish domains with minority support for bullish bias. This is not as strong as unanimous support and it has no longer majority support. However, it is not yet supporting the bear.

Long-term Hold Positions: Bear threatening to hold positions.

Immediate Tactics: Hold. The bull is maintaining dominance, although being threatened.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish, but significantly weakened..

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakened.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities. However, do not write any covered options in this environment.

Volume: Configurations are supporting bullish bias.

Comment from September 17, 2007

Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….

November 7, 2007 Addendum: The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting the upper trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the underlying bullish trend.

November 9, 2007 Addendum. Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the bullish trend has not been reversed.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Dow is up 1.0% and the NASDAQ is up 0.4% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bear one week ago. Although disappointing to those desiring on-going bullish behavior, Short-term attributes remain insufficient for a bull signal.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s continue moving robustly. As stated the past several days, robust volume on aggressive bearishness invigorated the bear. This configuration is increasingly supporting bearish behavior.

Nov 12, 2007. The major indices are moving briskly toward the lower trading range limit. It is common for bull/bear battles to occur at the lower trading range limit. Watch this attribute. If the major indices fall below the lower trading range limit without a bullish response, the likelihood of sustainable bearish behavior will increase. Use the Quick-term Indicant exclusively for your recent buys. Use the Consolidated model for your longer-term hold positions.

Nov 14, 2007. The Dow is within a couple of percentage points of the lower trading range limit. The NASDAQ has a little more room to fall before contact is made. Contact with the lower trading range limit should induce abnormal volatility. Keep your eyes on this particular attribute. If the market falls below the lower trading range limit, the Indicant will be more liberal is generating sell signals, depending on other attributes. Please read on.

Nov 16, 2007. The major indices responded bullishly as they approached the lower trading range limit. That suggests an increased probability of two possible behavior patterns; 1) fluttering can occur or 2) the market will not collapse into a deep and protracted bear. Two of the four behavioral patterns are non-bearish. The other two are robust bullishness and robust bearishness. Configurations do not support either of the latter two behavioral patterns.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 76.5% (annualized at 28.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of 138.8-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding six ETF’s at this time. They are down an average of 3.0% since their sell signals an average of 2.4-weeks ago.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up an average of 98.0% (annualized 37.4%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 134.7-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there are six ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down an average of 3.3% since their sell signals an average of 2.4-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 24.5% (annualized at 27.3%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 46.2-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding nine ETF’s at this time. They are down an average of 2.8% since their sell signals an average of 2.3-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are three conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This harmonious relationship, although weakened with recent bearish expressions, remains in support of the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August 15, 2006.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Nine of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by a mere 5.0%. Although this attribute is providing non-bearish support, it is being threatened by the bear.

Seven of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.7% below their bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance. Unfortunately, the average relative position is now without the full support of red bulls. This encourages the bear, but could also invigorate the bull. Please read on.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

Two of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. Earlier this week one contrarian ETF and one semi-contrarian ETF contacted breakout. Friday’s contact was one semi-finished and one finished EFT, which configures with no support for bullish or bearish bias.

As stated the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in forty-five of the last fifty-three trading days supports bullish bias. Non contact in seven of the last twenty-one trading days suggested the upper trading range limit successfully resisted bullish desires. At this point, it is questionable if the bull will overpower the upper trading range limit on the near-term horizon.

The average distance from breakout contact is 8.9. This remains in support of the quick-term bullish bias, but the energy required for additional bullish breakout is increasing to the point of potential bullish lethargy.

None of the ETF’s are contacting their breakdown lines. Overall, this configuration remains with a provision for non-bearish support.

The average distance from the price and breakdown is 15.7%. Although significant energy is required for bearish dominance, its potential is increasing. Although this non-bearish attribute is weakening, this configuration provides non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

Ten Force Vectors are moving bullishly. This appears to be the beginning of a bullish cycle. That does not mean the market will be bullish, but rising Force Vectors help form foundations to mitigate bearish ambition. The problem is that Force Vectors are deep inside bearish domains and will expend significant energy to get to neutrality. Once at a neutral position, the bull/bear battle will wage.

As stated the past three days, Force Vector’s are configuring in favor of shifting north. It that cycle becomes robust and there is no resistance in the passage from bearish to bullish domains, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality will resume its influence on the market. If there is no bullish resistance, the bear will gain an advantage.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There was one put option buy signal after Friday’s close. That brings the total put option buy signals to twenty-two in the last eleven trading days.

Seven ETF Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains. This is no longer providing near-unanimous or majority bullish support. This is threatening to the underlying bullish theme.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The shift from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15, 2006.

Message from Monday, September 17, 2007. The market is configuring nicely in support of the impending heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

November 9, 2007 addendum. The underlying bullish bias is again being threatened by bearish aggression. Economic fundamentals are overpowering historical standards.

November 12, 2007 addendum. Increased market volatility is not favorable to writing options.

The Quick-term Bull remains in tact.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Divergence versus Convergence

After enduring bearish convergence in three of the last four weeks, the market reversed to bullish divergence. The energy sector was down, while most of the other sectors were up. This configured mix has not occurred in quite some time. It takes on the appearance of the 1990’s. Rest assured a 1990’s configured mix is not about to happen.

Indicant Conclusion

Bullish convergence last week stopped bearish dominance. That does not mean the market is about to shift strongly to bullish mode. All it did was suggest any bearish ambition is not going to be a straight and deep line to the south.

The upper trading range limit has stopped bullish ambition on the last two micro-cycles to the north. The question now is, will the lower trading limit act similarly as a depressant to bearish ambition?

Substantive economic fears continue to threaten the bull. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality may not be capable of establishing barriers to excessive bearish ambitions. Strong economic fundamentals influence the market regardless of technical indicators.

As previously stated, consider bearish expressions as mere spurts in the face of the underlying bullish bias. Although this remains technically correct, this message may change in the next few days/weeks.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

In addition, once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

11/18/07

November 11, 2007 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

This Week’s Report

Mid-term Indicant Signals Bear for Five Major Indices

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bear for four major indices this past weekend. That is most simultaneous bear signals in several years. That does not mean the market is about to turn deeply bearish for an extended period. Unfortunately, that does increase the probability of this being the embryo of an impending bear that typically precedes economic recessions and/or unacceptable levels of inflation.

Click the following link to view the Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-01-DJIA-Curr.htm

You will notice this is the first signal for the Dow30 stocks since its bull was victimized by the meandering bear market in 2004, along with deep bearish seasonality at that time. The bear signal this weekend occurred, uncharacteristically, during the heart and soul of bullish seasonality and during the presidential pre-election year.

Click the following link to view the S&P500 Chart.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-02-SP500-Curr.htm

As you can see, this index fell below its lower trading range limit and the Mid-term Indicant’s trip line.

The S&P100 Index is similarly configured.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-04-SP100-Curr.htm

The Dow Transports fell below its lower trading range limit line several weeks ago. This index fell below the Mid-term Indicant Trip Line this past week, adding gusto to the delight of the bear.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-06-DJT-Curr.htm

The S&P600 Small Caps also fell below the Mid-term Indicant’s trip line last week. Most of the other small cap indices did not participate in the strong bullish movement since September 17, 2007. These indices usually dip deeper to the south than those closer to the blue chip category during economic recessions.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-06-DJT-Curr.htm

The strongest remaining bullish index from the March 2003 Bull Signals is the Dow Composite Index.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-08-DJC-Curr.htm

This index is positioned just above the Mid-term Indicant Trip Line. Its refusal to fall below the Trip Line provides some hope for those desiring a continuation of bullish behavior. Wishing and hoping on a wing and pray is not advisable. Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

The 1924-1928 was one of the most bullish along the election cycle phenomenon. That occurred just ahead of the Great Depression. This cycle was similar until the past two weeks where bearish expressions dominated market direction.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTIRYS-01-DJI-1924-1928.htm

What should one expect with these bear signals? If the market does not shift into an outright bear, stock market fluttering can occur. Fluttering occurs when the market bounces north and south, above and below, the Trip Lines. In other words, the market is not directionally committed. This volatility is discomforting to most, but it does offer short-term money making opportunities.

The 1940-1944 highlights an example of meandering fluttering.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTIRYS-01-DJI-1940-1944.htm

The 1964-1968-cycle highlights even more fluttering behavior.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTIRYS-01-DJI-1964-1968.htm

One particular interesting historical observation is the 1968-1972 cycle, where oil prices and Middle East unrest was similar to contemporary conditions.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTIRYS-01-DJI-1968-1972.htm

You will notice the bear signal during the normally bullish presidential pre election year.

If the market is accurate in anticipating an impending economic recession, a deep bearish cycle should ensue. The only way to curb rising commodity prices is to curb demand. Unfortunately, the most efficient and long lasting method to curb demand is economic contraction. That means increasing interest rates, regardless of economic consequence, may be appropriate. The weak dollar will only become weaker if this in some protracted degree is not accomplished. The stock market’s bull does not find comfort with such thoughts and may decide to leave until stupidity- cleansing is completed. Stupidity-cleansing is one standard of capitalism that will always remain an absolute requirement.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and twenty sell signals.

In addition to the sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 59-stocks and funds of the 345- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 19.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 26.7-weeks ago.

There were only 34-stocks and funds avoided at this time last year. Those avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 11.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 23.9-weeks earlier.

Two years ago, on Nov 11, 2005, the Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 54-stocks and funds that were down an average of 16.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 25.5-weeks earlier. Three years ago on Nov 12, 2004 there were 17-avoided stocks and funds. They were down by an average of 45.6% from their respective sell signals an average of 51.7-weeks earlier. On Nov 8, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was avoiding only 23-stocks and funds out of 296-tracked at that time. They were down by an average of 24.5% since their sell signals an average of 30.7-weeks earlier. As you can see, there were very few avoided stocks in the previous presidential election year of 2003. Five years ago on Nov 9, 2002, there were 21-avoided stocks and funds. They were down an average of 25.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 13.9-weeks earlier.

Although there were no buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 261 of the 345-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 138.8%. That annualizes to 60.4%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 286-stocks and funds for an average of 119.5-weeks.

One year ago, on Nov 10, 2006, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 310-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 81.8-weeks. Those 310-stocks and funds were up by an average of 103.5% (annualized at 65.8%). The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 253-stocks and funds of the 320-tracked two years ago on Nov 11, 2005. They were up by an average of 93.4% (annualized at 58.6%) since their respective buy signals an average of 82.9-weeks earlier. There were 297-stocks and funds with hold signals on Nov 12, 2004 since their buy signals an average of 54.6-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 68.7% (annualized at 69.1%).

The Indicant was only tracking 296-stocks and funds in 2002-2003, and early 2004. On Nov 9, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 267-stocks and funds out of 296-tracked. They were up by an average of 55.3% (annualized at 93.6%) since their buy signals an average of 32.6-weeks earlier. Five years ago, on Nov 9, 2002, there were 249-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 295 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. They were up an average of 12.7% (annualized at 74.8%) since their respective buy signals an average of 13.9-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

All updated information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 79.0% since its secular low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 135.9% and the S&P500 is up 87.1%. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 134.2%. The underlying bull that originated on October 9, 2002 no longer remains solid, but it remains a bull in spite of recent bearishness.

The NASDAQ is down 47.9% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 4.8% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The S&P500 recently set a new peak, but the old peak will be tracked until the NASDAQ sets a new one. The Dow is up 11.3% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. It has expressed no timidity in roaming in the new peak area, until recently. The NASDAQ needs to climb 92.1% to achieve a new record high. Do not be surprised if this occurs after the year, 2025.

The Dow is up 4.7% so far this year. The S&P500 is up 2.5% and the NASDAQ up 8.8%. At this time last year, the Dow was up 12.9%, with the S&P500 up 10.4% and the NASDAQ up 7.7%. With the exception of the NASDAQ, the major indices remain behind last year’s performance due to aggressive bearish behavior a few weeks ago and the past two weeks. This was due, in part, to the upper range trading limit. The major indices did not find comfort when they bullishly approached that limit.

The NASDAQ through this week of 2001 was down 26.0%. It was down 30.3% through this week of 2002. It recovered with a gain of 47.6% by this weekend of 2003. After being down most of the year due to the meandering bear market, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality elevated it to being up by 2.0% on this weekend 2004. At this time of year in 2005, it was flat due to the same meandering bear from 2004. At this time last year, it was again up by 7.7%. This year, it is up 8.8%. As you can see, it is depressed this year from the last presidential pre-election year of 2003.

As you can see, the only years the NASDAQ has been up at this time of year has been the presidential pre-election years (2003 and 2007) and last year’s mid-term election year.

You will notice the Dow endured less volatility than the NASDAQ this century. The Dow was down 13.6% on this weekend in 2001. In 2002, it was down by 14.8%, but with less severity than the NASDAQ’s 30.3% drop in 2002. In the last presidential election year of 2003, the NASDAQ’s 47.6% rise delivered more excitement than the Dow’s humble 17.6% increase.

Many of your recall the meandering bear market in 2004 where the Dow was down 4.0% as the market concluded deep bearish seasonality. The meandering bear continued through 2005 with the Dow dropping by 2.2%. On this weekend, the Dow was up 12.9% in 2006, which conflicted with historical standards and seasonal normalcy. The Indicant stated the bullish bias shift on August 15, 2006 obsoleted historical standards. As previously stated, so far this year, the Dow is up 4.7%, which is the third most bullish year-to-date performance this century.

Since the expiration of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality in late January 2007, the Dow is up 3.3%, while the NASDAQ is up 6.7% and the S&P500 is up by 1.1%. Even with recent bearish behavior, all the major indices are up since the expiration of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality in late January of this year. This is a testament to the strength of the bull even though it has undergone its third major bearish expression of this year.

Where is the market headed for the remainder of this year? Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a stop loss of 8% on recent buys because of the Quick-term Indicant’s bullish bias.

Stock and Fund Update

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Interest rates continue falling. The configuration is somewhat dramatic. The cooling economy should foster a continuation of this drama. The design is bolster the economy in this pre-election year.

Falling interest rates typically accompany stock market bullish behavior. The primary exception to stock market bullishness is inflation or deflation. Inflation is the primary threat. If the CPI begins to rise, falling interest rates will not stimulate bullish behavior.

The U.S. Dollar generally weakens with declining interest rates. A weak dollar increases the cost of imports, which is inflationary. On the other hand U.S. exports become more competitive, but that is becoming less meaningful with the international economy. At any rate, the bias is increasingly inflationary.

Commodity prices continue to increase. Their rise in prices could also be labeled as dramatic. This does not bode well with respect to inflation.

With the exception of the favorable trend in interest rates, other economic trends suggest a troubling future to this bull market.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 is up 427.8% since the April 13, 2001 buy signal. Its annualized growth since that buy signal is 64.1%. It moved to the north in 39 of the past 61-weeks. It has been solidly bullish in ten of the last twelve weeks, but bearish last week.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28, is up 29.0% since its buy signal on September 7, 2007. It is annualized at 166.0% since that buy signal. This fund was flat last week.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, which is isolated in the energy sector, is up 350.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2002. It is annualizing at 66.1%.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, is up 258.3% (annualized at 55.4%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on April 5, 2003. Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, is up 224.9% (annualized at 56.5%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, is up 196.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It is annualized at 45.7%.

These energy related funds were solidly bearish last week.

The SQI (Consolidated Short-term and Quick-term Indicant) model signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on August 3, 2005. It is up 88.8% since then. It is annualized at 38.6%. This fund has been bullish in ten of the past eleven weeks. It was solidly bullish last week.

The SQI signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on March 26, 2003. It is up 246.3% (annualized at 52.5%). This fund was bearish last week.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals, but there were five new bear signals. As stated, the past several weeks expect an increased number of bull/bear signals with fluttering behavior due to nearing the conclusion of the election cycle phenomenon.

There are only three bulls. They are up by an average of 40.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 146-weeks ago. That annualizes to 14.5%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is now at $39,509,586

That beats buy and hold performance of $1,994,290 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $187,693. That beats buy and hold’s $142,394 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $219,882. That beats buy and hold’s $91,121 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,881.1%, 31.8%, and 141.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here to go to the current Mid-term Indicant assessment of the ten major indices.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant continues avoiding ProFunds Ultra Short. It is down 29.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on September 15, 2006. Historical norms of market cyclicality suggest the next buying opportunity for this fund may not occur until 2009. However, the recent bear signal for several major indices suggest an increasing probability of this funds profit production before 2009.

Do no buy it just yet. Wait for the Quick-term Indicant to help offer support.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Always remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 350.6% (annualized at 21.8%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 836-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, and inflation have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Seven of thirty; bullish bias holding, but under near-term bearish pressure.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Nine. Attribute remains configured with non-bearish support.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Strong; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses.

Force Vectors: Configurations continue supporting bullish bias, but very weak.

Vector Pressure: Fifteen in bullish domains with majority support for bullish bias. This is not as strong as unanimous support and it has no longer in majority support. However, it is not yet supporting the bear.

Long-term Hold Positions: Threatening to hold postiions.

Immediate Tactics: Hold. The bull is maintaining dominance, although being threatened.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish, but significantly weakened..

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing, but weakened.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.

Volume: Configurations are supporting bullish bias.

Comment from September 17, 2007

Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….

November 7, 2007 Addendum: The major indices again reacted bearishly after contacting the upper trading range limit. This phenomenon does not detract from the underlying bullish trend.

November 9, 2007 Addendum. Economic fundamentals are threatening the bull, but the bullish trend has not been reversed.

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Short-term Indicant signaled bear after the market’s close on November 9, 2007. The Short-term Indicant is retracting its prior statement that the heart and soul of bullish seasonality should dominate for several months. Bearish economic fundamentals are overpowering historical standards/

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s continue moving robustly. As previously stated robust volume on aggressive bearishness invigorated the bear. However, attributes and configurations do not support sustainable bearish behavior, even though there is a slight edge favoring the bear on a near-term basis.

As stated the past earlier this week, rather than challenging the lower trading range limit, the major indices are again interacting with the upper trading range limit. This has induced bearish responses in the recent past. It again reacted in a bearish manner last Wednesday. However, as stated many times in the past, the trend remains bullish. Long-term investors understand the adage; do not fight the trend.

Although the major indices have not yet engaged the lower trading range limit, the distance between the current position and that lower trading range limit is significant. It is too risky at this point to hold many of your securities, awaiting observations of market behavior around the lower trading range limits.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and one sell signal. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 79.6% (annualized at 29.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 137.4-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signal, the SQI is avoiding five ETF’s at this time. They are down an average of 3.7% since their sell signals an average of 1.6-weeks ago.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and one sell signal. Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up an average of 98.5% (annualized 37.9%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 133.7-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signal, there are five ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down an average of 4.1% since their sell signals an average of 1.7-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and two sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 25.2% (annualized at 28.6%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 45.2-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signal, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding seven ETF’s at this time. They are down an average of 3.4% since their sell signals an average of 1.7-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Nine of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by a mere 5.5%. Although this attribute is providing non-bearish support, it is being threatened by the bear.

Seven of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.1% below their bullish red curves. As long as one non-contrarian ETF remains above bullish red, the bear cannot gain complete dominance. Unfortunately, the average relative position is now without the full support of red bulls. This encourages the bear, but also invigorates the bull. Please read on.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

None of the thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines.

As stated the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in forty-one of the last forty-eight trading days supports bullish bias. Non contact in six of the last sixteen trading days suggested the upper trading range limit successfully resisted bullish desires. At this point, it is questionable if the bull will overpower the upper trading range limit on the near-term horizon.

The average distance from breakout contact is 7.3%. This remains in support of the quick-term bullish bias, but the energy required for additional bullish breakout is increasing to the point of potential bullish lethargy.

One of the ETF’s is contacting its breakdown line. This is ETF#29, Large Blend, suggesting the bigger companies are more incompetent. Overall, this configuration remains with a provision for non-bearish support.

The average distance from the price and breakdown is 16.3%. Although significant energy is required for bearish dominance, its potential is increasing. Although this non-bearish attribute is weakening, this configuration provides non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

Two Force Vectors are moving bullishly. That is a decrease by twenty-one from last Friday, but up by one from yesterday. Overall, configurations continue supporting bullish bias, although weakening.

Consider bearish expressions as mere spurts in the face of underlying bullish bias, which will offer more buying and call-option opportunities. Recent bearish aggression, including the past two days, remains configured as a spurt, but barely..

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There was one put option buy signal after Friday’s close. That brings the total put option buy signals to fifteen in the last six trading days. Unfortunately, Friday was not bullish. It was decidedly bearish.

Fifteen ETF Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains. This is no longer providing near-unanimous or majority bullish support. This is threatening to the underlying bullish theme.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The shift from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15, 2006.

Message from Monday, September 17, 2007. The market is configuring nicely in support of the impending heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

November 9, 2007 addendum. The underlying bullish bias is again being threatened by bearish aggression. Economic fundamentals are overpowering historical standards.

The Quick-term Bull remains in tact.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Divergence versus Convergence

Bearish convergence has occurred in three of the last four weeks. As stated last week, that favors a bearish theme. The bull is seriously threatened with this configuration.

Indicant Conclusion

Increasing bearish convergence contributed to this week’s Mid-term Indicant bear signals for the eight major indices. Technically, the upper trading range limit stifled continued bullishness. Although the market has not yet converted to a bear, the probability of it doing so has increased dramatically.

As stated last week, substantive economic fears threaten the bull. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality may not be capable of establishing barriers to excessive bearish ambitions.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

In addition, once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

11/11/07

November 4, 2007 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Harmony in Fundamentals and Technical Indicators

The stock market did not climb the proverbial wall of worry late last week. Fundamentally, inflationary concerns are obvious. Rising oil prices are the primary culprit. Other commodity prices are following suit.

Click the following link to view the CPI with a Dow Jones Industrial Average back-drop.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E-CPI.htm

You can see the Dow’s 2003 rise was coupled with a declining CPI. The meandering bear market of 2004-2005 coupled with rising and volatile CPI values, due in part, to rising oil prices.

The precipitous CPI decline in late 2006 helped propel the Dow to new record highs in 2007.

Although rising oil prices and the sub-prime lending crisis have facilitated the desired hype of headline news, capital markets bias with a clinical view of facts. The PPI is one of the more predominant elements of factual observation that has a history of influencing the direction of capital markets.

Click the following link and then scroll down to establish a proper mind-set.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/Economic/E-CPI.htm

As you can see, the long-term market trends correlate to the PPI. A bullish stock market prefers PPI stability. The bear delights in instability, regardless if inflationary or deflationary. The 100-years of data will not invoke the emotion of headline news. As you can see, the market’s trend is highly influenced by the PPI.

Now scroll up to see a more current view of the PPI. As you can see, the Dow behaved bullishly from 1995 until 2000, coupling with a gentle decline in the PPI.

Rising PPI in the late 1990s contributed to the Dow’s peaking. The mild recession at the turn of the century skewed the supply/demand curve along with a tremendous surge in China production. That combination stimulated deflationary concerns. The stock market despises deflation as much as inflation. As you can, the bear delighted and dominated during this period.

The economic expansion that began in the early 2000’s and OPEC’s aggression toward the West propelled the PPI back to the north, mitigating deflationary concerns. The stock market delighted with that and turned bullish in 2003.

Notice the green line on the chart. That represents the PPI trend. You will notice it shifted to the south in late 2006 and throughout most of 2007. The bull enjoyed that and moved the Dow higher. That green line is now under pressure by the rising PPI. However, it has not yet discouraged the bull’s desire to dominate.

The Long-term Indicant does not yet indicate a troubling future. This contrasts with what appears to be troubling fundamentals and stock market historical standards. Click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

As you can see, the Long-term Indicant continues with a bullish bias. Fundamentally, rising commodity prices threaten the bull. However, that has not yet impregnated economic data from a clinical perspective. The market will react bearishly well before the trends shift with unfavorable economic data.

Sometimes the market shifts direction with reckless abandonment and is wrong. That is why fundamentalists, from time to time, shake their heads in dismay. Fundamentally, the economy is sound, but there is a bear market confronting their values and beliefs. It does not help being fundamentally correct with a shriveling portfolio. The value of the portfolio is all that counts. There is no comfort with being right, but poorer.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

In addition to the sell signal, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 58-stocks and funds of the 345- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 17.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 26.2-weeks ago.

There were only 33-stocks and funds avoided at this time last year. Those avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 13.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 23.9-weeks earlier.

Two years ago, on Nov 4, 2005, the Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 60-stocks and funds that were down an average of 17.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 28.7-weeks earlier. Three years ago on Nov 5, 2004 there were 21-avoided stocks and funds. They were down by an average of 41.0% from their respective sell signals an average of 53.7-weeks earlier. On Nov 1, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was avoiding only 25-stocks and funds out of 296-tracked at that time. They were down by an average of 23.9% since their sell signals an average of 31.6-weeks earlier. As you can see, there were very few avoided stocks in the previous presidential election year of 2003. Five years ago on Nov 2, 2002, there were 38-avoided stocks and funds. They were down an average of 29.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 19.1-weeks earlier.

Although there were no buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 286 of the 345-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 143.2%. That annualizes to 65.4%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 286-stocks and funds for an average of 113.8-weeks.

One year ago, on Nov 3, 2006, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 310-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 80.8-weeks. Those 310-stocks and funds were up by an average of 113.6% (annualized at 57.0%). The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 209-stocks and funds of the 320-tracked two years ago on Nov 4, 2005. They were up by an average of 113.6% (annualized at 57.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 103.6-weeks earlier. There were 277-stocks and funds with hold signals on Nov 5, 2004 since their buy signals an average of 53.6-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 69.8% (annualized at 67.7%).

The Indicant was only tracking 296-stocks and funds in 2002-2003, and early 2004. On Nov 1, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 261-stocks and funds out of 296-tracked. They were up by an average of 54.5% (annualized at 93.4%) since their buy signals an average of 30.4-weeks earlier. Five years ago, on Nov 2, 2002, there were 211-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 295 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. They were up an average of 16.9% (annualized at 88.4%) since their respective buy signals an average of 19.1-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

All updated information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 86.6% since its secular low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 152.3% and the S&P500 is up 94.4%. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 142.4%. The underlying bull that originated on October 9, 2002 no longer remains solid, but it remains a bull in spite of recent bearishness.

The NASDAQ is down 44.3% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 1.2% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The S&P500 recently set a new peak, but the old peak will be tracked until the NASDAQ sets a new one. The Dow is up 16.0% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. It has expressed no timidity in roaming in the new peak area. The NASDAQ needs to climb another 79.6% to achieve a new record high. Do not be surprised if this occurs after the year, 2025.

The Dow is up 9.1% so far this year. The S&P500 is up 6.4% and the NASDAQ up 16.4%. At this time last year, the Dow was up 12.1%, with the S&P500 up 9.5% and the NASDAQ up 5.8%. With the exception of the NASDAQ, the major indices remain behind last year’s performance due to aggressive bearish behavior a few weeks ago and late last week. This was due, in part, to the upper range trading limit. The major indices did not find comfort when they bullishly approached that limit.

The NASDAQ through this week of 2001 was down 29.3%. It was down 30.2% through this week of 2002. It recovered with a gain of 44.7% by this weekend of 2003. It was again down 0.9% in 2004 on this weekend as a product of the 2004 meandering bear. At this time of year in 2005, it was down slightly by 1.4% due to the same meandering bear from 2004. At this time last year, it was again up by 5.8%. This year, it is up 16.4%. As you can see, it is depressed this year from the last presidential pre-election year of 2003, while out-performing the other major indices.

As you can see, the only years the NASDAQ has been up at this time of year has been the presidential pre-election years (2003 and 2007) and last year’s mid-term election year.

You will notice the Dow endured less volatility than the NASDAQ this century. The Dow was down 13.6% on this weekend in 2001. In 2002, it was down by 15.0%, but with less severity than the NASDAQ’s 30.2% drop in 2002. In the last presidential election year of 2003, the NASDAQ’s 44.7% rise delivered more excitement than the Dow’s humble 17.5% increase. Many of your recall the meandering bear market in 2004 where the Dow was down 4.0% as the market concluded deep bearish seasonality. The meandering bear continued through 2005 with the Dow dropping by 2.9%. On this weekend, the Dow was up 12.1% in 2006, which conflicted with historical standards and seasonal normalcy. The Indicant stated the bullish bias shift on August 15, 2006 obsoleted historical standards. As previously stated, so far this year, the Dow is up 9.1%, which is the third most bullish year-to-date performance this century.

Since the expiration of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality in late January 2007, the Dow is up 7.7%, while the NASDAQ is up 14.1% and the S&P500 is up by 5.0%. Even with summer-time bearish behavior, all the major indices are up since the expiration of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality in late January of this year. This is a testament to the strength of the bull even though it has undergone its third major bearish expression of this year.

Where is the market headed for the remainder of this year? Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a stop loss of 8% on recent buys because of the Quick-term Indicant’s bullish bias.

Stock and Fund Update

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Interest rates are falling, which is favorable to bullish stock market desires. Unfortunately, oil and other commodity prices are skyrocketing. Those inflationary threats are accelerating their already unfavorable trend. If those trends permeate the Consumer Price Index, the bear will take delight and overcome the bull.

The inflationary threat is increasing due to the weaker dollar. Imported products will become more expensive. The weaker dollar will help the cause of export for U.S. producers, but recessionary pressures abroad may curtail the opportunity to export.

With the exception of the favorable trend in interest rates, other economic trends suggest a troubling future to this bull market.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 is up 433.8% since the April 13, 2001 buy signal. Its annualized growth since that buy signal is 65.2%. It moved to the north in 39 of the past 60-weeks. It has been solidly bullish in ten of the last eleven weeks.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28, is up 29.0% since its buy signal on September 7, 2007. It is annualized at 186.7% since that buy signal. This fund was also solidly bullish last week.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, which is isolated in the energy sector, is up 359.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2002. It is annualizing at 67.9%.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, is up 260.8% (annualized at 56.1%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on April 5, 2003. Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, is up 233.2% (annualized at 58.8%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, is up 200.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It is annualized at 46.8%.

These energy related funds were solidly bearish last week.

The SQI (Consolidated Short-term and Quick-term Indicant) model signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on August 3, 2005. It is up 83.4% since then. It is annualized at 36.6%. This fund has been bullish in nine of the past ten weeks. It was solidly bullish last week.

The SQI signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on March 26, 2003. It is up 252.8% (annualized at 54.1%). This fund was solidly bullish last week.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals. New trip lines were assigned. As we near the conclusion of the presidential election cycle, expect an increased number of bull/bear signals with fluttering behavior.

All ten major indices are bulls. They are up by an average of 32.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 120-weeks ago. That annualizes to 14.3%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is now at $41,182,816

That beats buy and hold performance of $2,078,325 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $194,917. That beats buy and hold’s $147,874 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $235,147. That beats buy and hold’s $97,447 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,881.5%, 31.8%, and 141.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here to go to the current Mid-term Indicant assessment of the ten major indices.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant continues avoiding ProFunds Ultra Short. It is down 44.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on September 15, 2006. Historical norms of market cyclicality suggest the next buying opportunity for this fund may not occur until 2009.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Always remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 369.7% (annualized at 23.0%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 835-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, and inflation have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Quick-term Red Bulls: Fifteen of thirty; bullish bias holding even though down from Wednesday.

Quick-term Yellow Bears/Threats: Five; non-bearish support.

Quick-term Non-Bearishness: Strong; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses.

Force Vectors: Configurations continue supporting bullish bias.

Vector Pressure: Twenty-two in bullish domains with near-unanimous support for bullish bias.

Long-term Hold Positions: Safe.

Immediate Tactics: Hold. The bull is maintaining dominance. Bearish aggression has been stifled.

Current Quick-term Bias: Bullish.

Overall (Long-term) Market Status: Bullish bias prevailing.

Profit Potential from Naked Options: Volatility is high, enhancing option opportunities.

Volume: Configurations are supporting bullish bias.

Comment from September 17, 2007

Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….

Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details

The Dow is down 1.1% and the NASDAQ is up 6.0% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bull on September 18, 2007. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality should dominate for several months. Recent bearish expressions should not detract from this bullish theme with the underlying configurations.

Please read on. Click here to see the Short-term Indicant’s history.

Both Indicant Volume Indicator’s continue moving robustly. Robust volume on aggressive bearishness invigorated bearish ambition last Thursday. Attributes and configurations do not support sustainable bearish behavior.

As stated the last several days, you can see from the charts, the upper trading range limit resisted the bull’s desire to expand its dominance. The trend, though, remains bullish. Recent buys may be in danger of short-term loss positions due to bearish aggression. If near-term bearish bias prevails, the next major monitoring would be how much the bearish yellow curve resists bearish desires. Please read on.

SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and two sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the SQI is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 87.7% (annualized at 35.0%) since their respective buy signals an average of 128.8-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signals, the SQI is avoiding two ETF’s at this time. They are down an average of 1.3% since their sell signals an average of 2.0-weeks ago.

Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals, while there was one sell signal. Although there were no buy signals, the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up an average of 96.2% (annualized 39.5%) since the STI signaled, buy, an average of 125.1-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signal, there are two ETF’s with avoid signals. They are down an average of 1.5% since their sell signals an average of 1.4-weeks ago.

The Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.

Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts

There were no buy signals and two sell signals. Although there were no buy signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 24.3% (annualized at 32.8%) since the QTI signaled buy an average of 38.1-weeks ago. In addition to the sell signals, the Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETF’s at this time. They are down an average of 1.2% since their sell signals an average of 2.0-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.

Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants

There are two conflicts, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This attribute continues supporting the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August 15, 2006.

Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report

Five of the 30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 9.5%. This attribute is providing non-bearish support. Although not as strongly supportive in the recent past, configurations are suggesting increasing support of bullish bias, even in the face of recent bearish aggression.

Fifteen of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is supportive of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 0.6% above their bullish red curves. This supports bullish bias.

Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s

One of the thirty ETF’s is contacting its breakout line. As stated the past several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since August 2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in thirty-eight of the last forty-three trading days supports bullish bias. Non contact in four of the last eleven trading days suggested the upper trading range limit successfully resisted bullish desires, but future interactions are suggesting the bull will overpower this constraint. Unfortunately, that did not happen last Thursday, as the bear exerted its influence again with the market’s interaction with the upper trading range limit.

Unfortunately, the ETF making breakout contact last Friday was Gold and Precious Metals. That is a contrarian security. That suggests an underlying theme of supporting inflationary pressures.

The average distance from breakout contact is a mere 5.3%. This remains in support of the quick-term bullish bias.

One of the ETF’s is contacting its breakdown line, providing non-bearish support. It is ETF #5, Financial, which is non-contrarian. That sector is definitely bearish.

The average distance from the price and breakdown is 20.6%. This configuration provides non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.

ETF Force Vector Configurations

Twenty-three Force Vectors are moving bullishly. This continues supporting bullish bias.

To understand potential financial opportunities, click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible on the Quick-term Indicant charts.

ETF Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals

Remember, the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the website.

Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were three put option buy signals after Friday’s close. That brings the total put option buy signals to seven since last Thursday. The lone call option buy signal last Thursday was contrarian ETF#11-GLD-Gold and Precious Metals. It did not transact as it was bullish on Friday, while the rest of the market languished.

Twenty-two ETF Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains. This is providing near-unanimous bullish support but somewhat divergent due to financial sector’s bearishness.

Make certain you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar with this, take the options tour.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary

The shift from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15, 2006.

Message from Monday, September 17, 2007. The market is configuring nicely in support of the impending heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

The Quick-term Bull remains in tact.

To familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective, click the following update links.

Quick-term ETF Options

Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s

Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s

Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related tours.

Links to the Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Divergence versus Convergence

Bearish convergence has occurred in two of the last three weeks. That favors a bearish theme, but not strong enough to detract from stock market bullishness.

Indicant Conclusion

Last week’s bearish convergence was a slap in the face of bullish desires, which is the exact opposite of last week’s message. The technical problem right now is the upper trading range limit on the major indices. Recent bullish expressions approaching that upper trading range limit has resulted in a bearish response.

As stated last week, substantive economic fears threaten the bull. However, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality should establish barriers to excessive bearish ambitions.

As previously stated, consider bearish expressions as mere spurts in the face of the underlying bullish bias. That offers you more buying opportunities. Increased volatility should assist those of you with a short-term interest in money making opportunities.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

In addition, once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

11/04/07