Oct 31,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 10, Issue
22 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Twenty of thirty; bullish bias holding.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Two; increasing non-bearish support.
Quick-term
Non-Bearishness:
Strong; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest
inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Strong. The July-August bearish threat expired on Monday, September 17,
2007. The Heart and Soul of bullish seasonality began on that day. On
October 17 and October 19, the market reacted bearishly to the upper
trading range limits. Although resistance to bullish desires are obvious,
consider this phenomenon as a bearish spurt in the face of the underlying
bullish trend.
Force
Vectors:
Configurations continue supporting bullish bias.
Vector
Pressure:
Twenty-two
in bullish domains with near-unanimous support for bullish bias.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Safe.
Immediate
Tactics:
Hold. The bull is maintaining dominance. Bearish aggression has been
stifled.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Bullish.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
Bullish bias
prevailing.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Probability of increased volatility is increasing.
Volume:
Configurations are supporting bullish bias.
Comment from
September 17, 2007
Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….
Observation
on September 18, 2007. The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not
jittery behavior. It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of
the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!
October 19,
2007 Addendum. Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the
face of the underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise
if this bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest
it is not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The Dow is
up 1.4% and the NASDAQ is up 7.8% since the
Short-term Indicant signaled bull on September 18, 2007. The heart and
soul of bullish seasonality should dominate for several months. Recent
bearish expressions should not detract from this bullish theme with the
underlying configurations.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s continue moving robustly. Robust volume
on bullish behavior today dampened bearish ambition. None of the
attributes and configurations support sustainable bearish behavior.
As stated
the last several days, you can see from the charts, the upper trading
range limit resisted the bull’s desire to expand its dominance. The trend,
though, remains bullish. Recent buys may be in danger of short-term loss
positions due to bearish aggression. If near-term bearish bias prevails,
the next major monitoring would be how much the bearish yellow curve
resists bearish desires. Please read on.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the SQI is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 86.4%
(annualized at 36.5%) since their respective buy signals an average of
121.7-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding
two ETF’s at this time. They are up an average of 3.4% since their sell
signals an average of 1.7-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up an
average of 94.0% (annualized 40.8%) since the STI signaled, buy, an
average of 118.4-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there
are two ETF’s with avoid signals. They are up an average of 3.4% since
their sell signals an average of 1.7-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 24.8% (annualized at 35.9%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 35.5-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETF’s at this time. They are up an
average of 3.5% since their sell signals an average of 1.7-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There is one
conflict, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are
in disagreement between hold and avoid status. This attribute continues
supporting the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August 15, 2006.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Two of the
30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average
relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 12.3%.
This attribute is providing non-bearish support. Although not as strongly
supportive in the recent past, configurations are suggesting increasing
support of bullish bias.
Twenty of
the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is
supportive of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.3%
above their bullish red curves. This supports bullish bias and improving
in that support.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
Nine of the
thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. As stated the past
several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since August
2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in thirty-seven of the last forty-one
trading days supports bullish bias. Non contact in three of the last nine
trading days suggested the upper trading range limit successfully resisted
bullish desires, but future interactions are suggesting the bull will
overpower this constraint.
The average
distance from breakout contact is a mere 3.0%. This remains in support of
the quick-term bullish bias.
None of the
ETF’s are contacting breakdown lines, providing non-bearish support.
The average
distance from the price and breakdown is 23.8%. This configuration
provides non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
Twenty-nine
Force Vectors are moving bullishly. This continues supporting bullish
bias.
Consider
bearish expressions as mere spurts in the face of underlying bullish bias,
which will offer more buying and call-option opportunities. Recent bearish
aggression is a spurt.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were no
option buy signals after Wednesday’s close. The seventeen call option buy
signals from last Friday through last Wednesday were not supported by deep
bearish expressions between those signals and today’s solid bullish
bounce. The market’s bullish behavior shortly after those call option buy
signals were not friendly to your discounted offers. Tuesday’s bearishness
was too minor for discounted price offers to transact.
Twenty-two
ETF
Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains. This is providing
near-unanimous and convergent bullish support.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The shift
from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006
after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15,
2006.
Message from
Monday, September 17, 2007. The market is configuring nicely in support of
the impending heart and soul of bullish seasonality.
Message from
September 17, 2007. It is recommended to avoid writing covered call
options due to increased probability of quick-term and short-term
bullishness. Modified on September 24, 2007. Vector Pressure is again
positive (bullish) and not configured favorably for writing covered call
options.
October 16,
2007 addendum: The market is nervous about inflationary pressures. This is
a valid fundamental concern that can invite long-term bearishness. The
stock market will not tolerate high rates of inflation; nor high interest
rates.
October 17,
2007 addendum: You will notice the major indices are near their upper
limit of the trading range. That does not mean bearish dominance is about
to occur. If it does occur, your longer-term hold positions should be
maintained until the major indices approach the lower limit of the trading
range. Do not overreact to bearish threats; consider them as mere spurts
in the face of the underlying bull.
The
Quick-term Bull remains in tact.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is not avoiding QQQQ,
which does not support holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Quick-term ETF Options
Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s
Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related
tours.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.Net
10/30/07
Oct 30,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 10, Issue
21 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Sixteen of thirty; bullish bias holding.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Four; retaining non-bearish support, but also weakened.
Quick-term
Non-Bearishness:
Strong; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest
inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Strong. The July-August bearish threat expired on Monday, September 17,
2007. The Heart and Soul of bullish seasonality began on that day. On
October 17 and October 19, the market reacted bearishly to the upper
trading range limits. Although resistance to bullish desires are obvious,
consider this phenomenon as a bearish spurt in the fact of the underlying
bullish trend.
Force
Vectors:
Configurations continue supporting bullish bias.
Vector
Pressure:
Twenty-two
in bullish domains with near-unanimous support for bullish bias.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Safe.
Immediate
Tactics:
Hold. The bull is maintaining dominance, even in the face of recent
bearish aggression.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Bullish with
near-term weakness.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
Bullish bias
prevailing, but weakened.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Probability of increased volatility is increasing.
Volume:
Configurations are supporting bullish bias.
Comment from
September 17, 2007
Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….
Observation
on September 18, 2007. The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not
jittery behavior. It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of
the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!
October 19,
2007 Addendum. Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the
face of the underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise
if this bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest
it is not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The Dow is
up 0.4% and the NASDAQ is up 6.2% since the
Short-term Indicant signaled bull on September 18, 2007. The heart and
soul of bullish seasonality should dominate for several months. Recent
bearish expressions should not detract from this bullish theme with the
underlying configurations.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s continue moving robustly. This
configuration is accompanied with mixed market behavior with a slight
bearish flavor. This will tame the bull somewhat. Again, none of the
attributes and configurations support sustainable bearish behavior.
As stated
the last several days, you can see from the charts, the upper trading
range limit resisted the bull’s desire to expand its dominance. The trend,
though, remains bullish. Recent buys may be in danger of short-term loss
positions due to bearish aggression. If near-term bearish bias prevails,
the next major monitoring would be how much the bearish yellow curve
resists bearish desires. Please read on.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the SQI is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 83.3%
(annualized at 35.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of
121.6-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding
two ETF’s at this time. They are up an average of 2.4% since their sell
signals an average of 1.6-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up an
average of 90.7% (annualized 39.5%) since the STI signaled, buy, an
average of 118.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there
are two ETF’s with avoid signals. They are up an average of 2.4% since
their sell signals an average of 1.6-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 23.1% (annualized at 35.5%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 35.4-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETF’s at this time. They are up an
average of 2.3% since their sell signals an average of 1.6-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There is one
conflict, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are
in disagreement between hold and avoid status. Although complete harmony
was lost on bearishness the past two weeks, this attribute continues
supporting the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August 15, 2006.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Three of the
30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average
relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 10.9%.
This attribute is providing non-bearish support, but not as strongly as in
the recent past.
Sixteen of
the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is
supportive of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 2.0%
above their bullish red curves. This supports bullish bias, although
weakened recently.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
Two of the
thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. As stated the past
several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since August
2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in thirty-six of the last forty trading
days supports bullish bias. Non contact in three of the last eight trading
days suggested the upper trading range limit successfully resisted bullish
desires.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 4.0%. This remains in support of the
quick-term bullish bias.
None of the
ETF’s are contacting breakdown lines, providing non-bearish support.
The average
distance from the price and breakdown is 22.1%. This configuration
provides non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
Twenty-nine
Force Vectors are moving bullishly. This continues supporting bullish
bias.
Consider
bearish expressions as mere spurts in the face of underlying bullish bias,
which will offer more buying and call-option opportunities. Recent bearish
aggression is a spurt.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There was one
call option buy signal after Tuesday’s close. This brings the total to
seventeen call option buy signals the past three trading days. The
market’s bullish behavior on Monday was not friendly to your discounted
offers. Tuesday’s bear market, although mild, offers minor support for
Monday call option buy signals.
Twenty-two
ETF
Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains. This is providing
near-unanimous and convergent bullish support.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The shift
from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006
after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15,
2006.
Message from
Monday, September 17, 2007. The market is configuring nicely in support of
the impending heart and soul of bullish seasonality.
Message from
September 17, 2007. It is recommended to avoid writing covered call
options due to increased probability of quick-term and short-term
bullishness. Modified on September 24, 2007. Vector Pressure is again
positive (bullish) and not configured favorably for writing covered call
options.
October 16,
2007 addendum: The market is nervous about inflationary pressures. This is
a valid fundamental concern that can invite long-term bearishness. The
stock market will not tolerate high rates of inflation; nor high interest
rates.
October 17,
2007 addendum: You will notice the major indices are near their upper
limit of the trading range. That does not mean bearish dominance is about
to occur. If it does occur, your longer-term hold positions should be
maintained until the major indices approach the lower limit of the trading
range. Do not overreact to bearish threats; consider them as mere spurts
in the face of the underlying bull.
The
Quick-term Bull remains in tact.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is not avoiding QQQQ,
which does not support holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Quick-term ETF Options
Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s
Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related
tours.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.Net
10/30/07
Oct 29,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 10, Issue
20 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Twenty-two of thirty; bullish bias holding.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Three; retaining non-bearish support, but also weakened.
Quick-term
Non-Bearishness:
Strong; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest
inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Strong. The July-August bearish threat expired on Monday, September 17,
2007. The Heart and Soul of bullish seasonality began on that day. On
October 17 and October 19, the market reacted bearishly to the upper
trading range limits. Although resistance to bullish desires are obvious,
consider this phenomenon as a bearish spurt in the fact of the underlying
bullish trend.
Force
Vectors:
Configurations continue supporting bullish bias.
Vector
Pressure:
Twenty-two
in bullish domains with near-unanimous support for bullish bias.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Safe.
Immediate
Tactics:
Hold. The bull is maintaining dominance, even in the face of recent
bearish aggression.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Bullish with
near-term weakness.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
Bullish bias
prevailing, but weakened.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Probability of increased volatility is increasing.
Volume:
Configurations are supporting bullish bias.
Comment from
September 17, 2007
Configurations are shifting away from bearish support………….
Observation
on September 18, 2007. The Dow’s 335-point gain today (9/18/07) is not
jittery behavior. It is not a bullish spurt. It reflects the beginning of
the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. Enjoy!
October 19,
2007 Addendum. Recent bearish aggression is configured as a spurt in the
face of the underlying bull at this time. Several attributes will advise
if this bearish aggression is sustainable. Current configurations suggest
it is not sustainable. Keep in mind these attributes can shift quickly.
Quick-term/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Details
The Dow is
up 1.0% and the NASDAQ is up 6.3% since the
Short-term Indicant signaled bull on September 18, 2007. The heart and
soul of bullish seasonality should dominate for several months. Recent
bearish expressions should not detract from this bullish theme with the
underlying configurations.
Please read
on. Click here to see the
Short-term Indicant’s history.
Both
Indicant Volume Indicator’s continue moving robustly. This
configuration is accompanied with mixed market behavior with a slight
bearish flavor. This will tame the bull somewhat. Again, none of the
attributes and configurations support sustainable bearish behavior.
As stated
the last several days, you can see from the charts, the upper trading
range limit resisted the bull’s desire to expand its dominance. The trend,
though, remains bullish. Recent buys may be in danger of short-term loss
positions due to bearish aggression. If near-term bearish bias prevails,
the next major monitoring would be how much the bearish yellow curve
resists bearish desires. Please read on.
SQI Report Card (Consolidated Short/Quick), Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the SQI is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 85.4%
(annualized at 36.2%) since their respective buy signals an average of
121.4-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the SQI is avoiding
two ETF’s at this time. They are up an average of 3.5% since their sell
signals an average of 1.4-weeks ago.
The SQI model is the one that most of you will prefer for your trading
decisions. It generates fewer signals than the other two models and
represents consistencies in the Quick-term and Short-term outlooks for the
specific ETF’s. It also beats buy and hold on a regular basis, although
there is only eight years of proof. The quality of that proof is high
since this period includes a powerful bull and bear. The model sours a
little during meandering markets with an excessive number of signals from
time to time. Research toward perfecting continues.
Short-term Indicant Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. They are up an
average of 92.9% (annualized 40.5%) since the STI signaled, buy, an
average of 118.1-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, there
are two ETF’s with avoid signals. They are up an average of 3.5% since
their sell signals an average of 1.4-weeks ago.
The
Short-term Indicant is more active in buying/selling than the Consolidated
model. The Quick-term Indicant, which follows, is even more active.
Quick-term Report Card, Status, and Charts
There were
no buy signals and no sell signals. Although there were no buy signals,
the Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 24.2% (annualized at 35.4%) since the QTI signaled buy an
average of 35.2-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the
Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETF’s at this time. They are up an
average of 3.4% since their sell signals an average of 1.4-weeks ago.
The
Quick-term Indicant is yet more active with buy and sell signals.
Conflicts Between the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants
There is one
conflict, whereby the Short-term Indicant and the Quick-term Indicant are
in disagreement between hold and avoid status. Although complete harmony
was lost on bearishness the past two weeks, this attribute continues
supporting the Quick-term bullish bias shift since August 15, 2006.
Quick-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report
Three of the
30-ETF’s are below their respective bearish yellow curves. The average
relative position of all thirty ETF’s is above bearish yellow by 12.0%.
This attribute is providing non-bearish support, but not as strongly as in
the recent past.
Twenty-one
of the ETF’s are above their respective bullish red curves, which is
supportive of the bullish bias. All thirty ETF average positions are 3.0%
above their bullish red curves. This supports bullish bias, although
weakened recently.
Short-term Indicant Bull/Bear Health Report for ETF’s
The above
heading is linked to the Short-term Indicant table. This paragraph is
repeated daily as a reminder of accurately interpreting the charts. By
clicking the charts on the table you can review potential contact with the
breakdown lines (bearish) and potential contact with breakout lines
(bullish). It is extremely bearish when several ETF’s are contacting their
respective breakdown lines. The breakdown lines are the yellow lines
(bearish). The breakout lines are the red ones (bullish). Close proximity
to breakout implies an increased probability of an actual breakout
occurring. It is certainly bullish and you will want to be in a hold
position for those few days a year when the breakout occurs. Conversely,
significant contact with yellow (breakdown) suggests “avoid” positions are
best.
Nine of the
thirty ETF’s are contacting their breakout lines. As stated the past
several months, the high concentration of breakout-contact since August
2006 was solidly bullish. Contact in thirty-five of the last thirty-nine
trading days supports bullish bias. Non contact in three of the last seven
trading days suggested the upper trading range limit successfully resisted
bullish desires.
The average
distance from breakout contact is 3.2%. This remains in support of the
quick-term bullish bias.
None of the
ETF’s are contacting breakdown lines, providing non-bearish support.
The average
distance from the price and breakdown is 23.3%. This configuration
provides non-bearish support, which has been the case since March 2003.
ETF
Force Vector Configurations
You can scan
the
Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds table and click on the
charts to observe Force Vector configurations. Scroll down each of the
charts, where a quick link has been added to take you to the next series
of Quick-term ETF charts. Use you back arrow on your browser to return to
the previous page.
Twenty-nine
Force Vectors are moving bullishly. This continues supporting bullish
bias.
Consider
bearish expressions as mere spurts in the face of underlying bullish bias,
which will offer more buying and call-option opportunities. Recent bearish
aggression is a spurt.
To
understand potential financial opportunities,
click here to learn to identify Robust Force Vectors. They are visible
on the
Quick-term Indicant charts.
ETF
Force Vectors/Vector Pressure Crossings/Option Signals
Remember,
the links contained herein are more visible when reading this on the
website.
Click this sentence for Vector Pressure Option Signals. There were six
call option buy signals after Monday’s close. This brings the total to
sixteen call option buy signals the past two trading days. The market’s
bullish behavior on Monday was not friendly to your discounted offers.
Twenty-two
ETF
Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains. Although down by six from last
Monday, this is providing near-unanimous and convergent bullish support.
This is also highlighting resistance to bullish ambition.
Make certain
you sell naked options when the Force Vectors shift direction or within
two days of the purchase, whichever occurs first. If you are unfamiliar
with this, take the
options tour.
Remember
options trading is risky. Never offer “market prices.” Always bid low in
hopes of an intraday contrarian movement to the underlying assumption of
directional behavior. Always place day-orders, only. That keeps the floor
folks out of your pocketbook. Do not despair if your order does not take.
There are plenty of opportunities throughout the course of the year.
Remember, stalking is the key to success here. Although not necessary for
stock market success, those of you who have a gambling instinct will enjoy
this. For those of you with a longer-term perspective, it does not hurt to
see what the short-term folks are thinking. The Indicant indicates both
perspectives.
Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Summary
The shift
from bearish bias to bullish bias started on Tuesday, August 15, 2006
after maintaining a bearish bias from early February 2006 until August 15,
2006.
Message from
Monday, September 17, 2007. The market is configuring nicely in support of
the impending heart and soul of bullish seasonality.
Message from
September 17, 2007. It is recommended to avoid writing covered call
options due to increased probability of quick-term and short-term
bullishness. Modified on September 24, 2007. Vector Pressure is again
positive (bullish) and not configured favorably for writing covered call
options.
October 16,
2007 addendum: The market is nervous about inflationary pressures. This is
a valid fundamental concern that can invite long-term bearishness. The
stock market will not tolerate high rates of inflation; nor high interest
rates.
October 17,
2007 addendum: You will notice the major indices are near their upper
limit of the trading range. That does not mean bearish dominance is about
to occur. If it does occur, your longer-term hold positions should be
maintained until the major indices approach the lower limit of the trading
range. Do not overreact to bearish threats; consider them as mere spurts
in the face of the underlying bull.
The
Quick-term Bull remains in tact.
ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by
exponential amounts. The Consolidated Indicant model is not avoiding QQQQ,
which does not support holding contrarian fund, ProFunds Ultra Short.
To
familiarize yourself with viewing the market from an ETF perspective,
click the following update links.
Quick-term ETF Options
Quick-term Indicant for ETF’s
Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Consolidated Quick-term/Short-term Indicant for ETF’s
Click here to the report card, which is updated weekly, to link to related
tours.
Links to the
Short-term Indicant and Indicant Volume Indicator are below:
Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ
Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Happy
Investing,
Indicant.Net
www.indicant.Net
10/29/07
Oct 26,
2007 Indicant Daily Stock Market Report
Volume 10, Issue
19 Supplement B, ISSN 1526 6516 QT/ST
© The Indicant
Stock Market Report
Today's Report
Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary
Quick-term
Red Bulls:
Nineteen of thirty; bullish bias holding.
Quick-term
Yellow Bears/Threats:
Two; retaining non-bearish support, but also weakened.
Quick-term
Non-Bearishness:
Strong; inflationary fears threaten the bull, but the slightest
inflationary weakness will invite vigorous bullish responses.
Short-term
Non-Bearishness:
Strong. The July-August bearish threat expired on Monday, September 17,
2007. The Heart and Soul of bullish seasonality began on that day. On
October 17 and October 19, the market reacted bearishly to the upper
trading range limits. Although resistance to bullish desires are obvious,
consider this phenomenon as a bearish spurt in the fact of the underlying
bullish trend.
Force
Vectors:
Configurations continue supporting bullish bias.
Vector
Pressure:
Twenty-two
in bullish domains with near-unanimous support for bullish bias.
Long-term
Hold Positions:
Safe.
Immediate
Tactics:
Hold. The bull is maintaining dominance, even in the face of recent
bearish aggression.
Current
Quick-term Bias:
Bullish with
near-term weakness.
Overall
(Long-term) Market Status:
Bullish bias
prevailing, but weakened.
Profit
Potential from Naked Options:
Probability of increased volatility is increasing.
Volume:
Configurations are supporting bullish bias.
&