September 25, 2005 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 09, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Exchange Traded Funds and Quick-term Indicant Update

You will notice quite a few changes in this weekly report. This should speed effective profit-making communications to you.

As stated in last two weekly reports, the Quick-term Indicant will be tracking thirty Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s). It will discontinue tracking the ten major market indices on a daily basis on October 1, 2005. However, if conditions warrant, late night reports with the old model will continue. This will allow Indicant members a more direct way of making money in the stock market based on the Quick-term, Short-term, and Consolidated Quick/Short-term signals.

This is scheduled to be released in early October, which will coincide with the expiration of deep bearish seasonality. Click the following link to view the Exchange Traded Funds that will be mentioned in the daily reports and the weekly reports. The signals will be easy. As always, they will be buy, hold, sell, and avoid. This will also allow buying and selling more frequently than allowed by the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, there will be intermittent signals to buy or sell after the original one. As always, thought, the Indicant’s report card will continue to base performance off the original buy or sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds is designed to avoid deep bearish cycles and participate in powerful bull legs, much like the other Indicant models. It will include options strategies for those of you intent on shorter-term trading. The tour is in its final stages of preparation. A link will be sent to you this coming week.

Click the below link to get a sneak preview of the thirty Exchange Traded Funds that will be tracked by the Quick-term Indicant on a daily basis. The tour is still under construction, but it does not hurt to take an early look at the charts and familiarize yourself with them. There is also a link to read the profiles for each.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/ETF-Tours/ETF-Tour-Intro01.htm

These particular ETF’s because they consistently lead in volume. That will ensure the availability of a ready buyer or seller for your trades.

Now, to the weekly report.

Deep Bearish Seasonality Is Gaining Influence

As you can see from the following links, all major indices continued their movement to the south last week. Deep bearish seasonality appears to be gaining influence.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-01-DJIA-Curr.htm

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-02-SP500-Curr.htm

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-03-NASDAQ%20Curr.htm

These configurations occur more often than not during deep bearish seasonality. The current white portion of the indices’ market price represents deep bearish seasonality. There are a few more deep bearish seasonality weeks remaining.

As you can see, the Dow is down from the beginning of 2004. Some of you recall how the Indicant informed you repeatedly of the market’s meandering behavior in 2004 and most of this year. A click to the following link will confirm the accuracy of this description of the Dow.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-01-DJIA-Curr.htm

The S&P500 is up from early 2004, but not much. Interestingly, it does remain above its bullish red curve. That offers some protection against dynamic bearish ambition. The Dow is not enjoying that degree of protection.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-02-SP500-Curr.htm

Like the Dow, the NASDAQ is down since the beginning of 2004. It is nestled on its bullish red curve. There is considerable distance to travel to the south for it to receive a bear signal. If it falls below its bullish red curve next week, there will be an increased probability of deep bearish behavior to dominate the markets. This would be especially true of the technology sector.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-03-NASDAQ%20Curr.htm

The Dow Utilities also fell victim to bearish expressions the past two weeks. However, this particular index remains at stratospheric levels. The Utilities so far this century have been nearly as bullish as the tech stocks late last century. Some of you recall the Indicant’s mid to late 2002 recommendations to buy utility stocks to lock into their relative high dividend returns. The capital gains since then has been a very pleasant surprise.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-07-DJU-Curr.htm

You will notice several buy signals for the Utilities occurred in late 2002.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm#Top%20Performing%20Dow%20Utility%20Stocks%20with%20Hold%20Signals

For example, the AES Group is up 733% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on November 23, 2002.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Stks-DJU/DJU-01.htm#5

This bothers some new Indicant members. If they joined after the buy signal, they are disappointed the Mid-term Indicant does not offer intermittent buys after the original buy. The Mid-term Indicant is designed that way. This is one reason why the Indicant’s research staff designed a Quick-term model for Exchange Traded Funds. It will signal intermittent buys and even some intermittent sells for related Exchange Traded Funds. However, performance reporting will always be based on the original buy or sell signal. This should be an industry standard, but most are into hype and would not want that hype to be constrained.

The S&P400 and S&P600 also continue at stratospherically bullish levels. The reason small caps and mid-caps out-perform the so-called blue chips is the fewer number of dilettante managers. The large-caps are infested with those how have a “political flair.” They win political corporate battles at the expense of your employer. Small and mid-cap managers, for the most part, are focused on making money for their employer, the shareholders. The dilettante is incapable of making money for their employer, so their energy is spent on self-gains and self-promotion.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-09-SP400-Curr.htm

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-09-SP400-Curr.htm

The above two indices remained positioned to withstand dynamic bearish behavior. There are some close cousins to the above two indices in the Exchange Traded Funds category.

ETF#26 correlates well with the S&P600. It is the same index. Some of you have used the Mid-term Indicant as a guide to buying ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds). You will now have the opportunity to make money more directly on a daily basis. The three different daily Indicant models will accommodate those interested in trading a lot and those who do not want to trade too often and beat buy and hold to boot.

The following illustrates the three basic Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models, using ETF#26 as an example:

The below link shows you the Consolidated Quick-term and Short-term Indicant chart. It is referred to as the SQI model (Short-term/Quick-term Indicate). This simply signals buy or sell when both the Short-term and Quick-term Indicants signal the same. That is why it has fewer signals than the Quick-term or Short-term Indicant has. This will appeal to those of you who do not like to trade a lot. You will simply avoid the deep bear cycles and participate in the bull legs.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/SQI-ETF-Charts/SQC-ETF5-Charts.htm#25

The Short-term Indicant is linked below for the same Exchange Traded Fund (#26-iShare S&P600). It has its own Indicant Volume Indicator. For those of you who like to not trade as much, your sell signal will be when the price touches its bearish yellow curve. Please note the ETF Indicant Volume Indicators are not as pure in predicting bullish or bearish directions as those of the NASDAQ and NYSE. ETF’s are new and may not have developed enough maturity. However, some, such as QQQQ, appear to offer some degree of predictability.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-ETF-Charts/STI-ETF7-Charts.htm#38

The Quick-term Indicant has not signaled buy or sell for Exchange Traded Fund #26 (I-Share S&P600) since 2004 started. This is somewhat unusual, as the Quick-term Indicant is very active. However, there were some options plays with this particular index since then. As you can tell, it has been meandering, but with a gentle drift to the north-northeast since early 2004. That contrasts with most of the other major indices, which have drifted to the south-southeast since early 2004. However, several ETF’s have been bullish in this meandering market.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/QTI-ETF-Charts/QTI-ETF5-Charts.htm#25

The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant’s tracking of Exchange Traded Funds on a daily basis should help Indicant members beat the stock market.

The Indicant’s daily expansion into Exchange Traded Funds will do the same thing as the current daily reports. However, it will be even better. This is because it will identify greater and more direct money-making opportunities for you. The ETF’s cannot be manipulated like a stock and thus less risky while possessing similar attributes to that of stocks and funds. Several ETF’s were bullish even though the major indices have been meandering since 2004.

Overall, do not be surprised at continuing bearish behavior over the next few weeks.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated zero buy signals and nine sell signals for stocks and funds. Actually, there were no sell signals for funds.

In addition to the sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 86-stocks and funds of the 320 tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 10.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 23.3-weeks ago.

There were 90-stocks and funds avoided at this time last year. The avoided stocks and funds one year ago were down an average of 28.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 47.0-weeks earlier. Two years ago, on September 27, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was avoiding only 16-stocks and funds that were down an average of 25.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 30.4-weeks earlier.

Although there were no buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 225 of the 320 stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 104.5%. That annualizes to 58.7%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 231-stocks and funds for an average of 92.6-weeks.

One year ago, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 205-stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked at that time for an average of 56.3-weeks. They were up 69.3% (annualized at 64.1%). The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 219-stocks and funds of the 296 tracked two years ago on September 20, 2003. They were up by an average of 51.8% (annualized at 89.6%) since their respective buy signals an average of 30.0-weeks earlier.

Secular Market Blend

This section is a repeat from the last several months with a few modifications, reflecting recent secular influences. Although appearing redundant at times, it is important to read it each week to detect secular market shifts. The current Mid-term Bull market and buying barrage in late 2002 followed the predicted market bottom in 2002. The mid-term presidential election year phenomenon was consistent with history. Even more impressive was how the market synchronized with near perfection to normal seasonality in 2002.

The Dow30 found bottom on October 9, 2002 at 7286.27. The NASDAQ found bottom on the same day at 1114.11. As earlier stated, the Indicant began its buying barrage in October – November 2002 just after the market bottomed from the severe 2000-2002 Bear Market. There were 239 buy signals between October 5, 2002 and November 9, 2002 out of the 296 stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time.

Some of you recall the Short-term Indicant Bear for the NASDAQ was the longest in history. It even exceeded the Dow’s 1929-1932 Short-term Indicant Bear in breadth and approached it in magnitude. The good news is that the NASDAQ’s decline did not lead to a depression, which is a clear indication of how little influence tech stocks have on the economy. There are two important axioms to remember. 1) Economic wealth is created in only three ways - manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction. 2) The only positive influence politicians have on the economy is to undo their prior damage.

All industries, other than those that create wealth, are merely transfer agents of wealth. Some industries directly contribute to the productivity gains in the three that create wealth. That contributes accelerates wealth building. For example, Microsoft products have helped millions improve their individual productivity. Many parlayed that improved individual performance toward improving the productivity of their respective industries.

The political industry reduces wealth. Politicians continually attempt to redistribute wealth. They promote “middle class” attainment. The larger the middle class, the more power they have. They are threatened by those who attain capitalistic greatness. Many start-ups with tremendous economic opportunities could cross over into profound wealth building, but few can cross that line from so-so to greatness. Many cannot cross that line due to political pressures, ranging from regulatory constraints to direct political intervention. Politicians can serve a good purpose, but the world would be better off if their influence was less than one-tenth of one-percent of today’s levels.

The remainder of this section, Secular Market Blend, is repeated, in part, from the past several months, but it does not hurt to reread it each week. As time progresses and conditions change, there will be modifications to it to maintain a balanced frame of reference.

You will notice many of the mutual fund buy signals occurred in March 2003. Many of you recall how the market did not synchronize with the heart and soul of bullish seasonality from November 2002 through February 2003. After the asynchronous behavior in the November 2002 rolling third of the year, the market turned bullish in March 2003 and again did not synchronize with normal seasonality. The Mid-term Indicant continued signaling bull during bearish seasonality during most of 2003. The market continued moving north during that time, contrary to historical standards. As stated in most of 2004, bearish expressions on a Mid-term basis between May and October 2004 should not be surprising. That is exactly what occurred.

The year, 2004, was consistent with normal bearish seasonality. Unfortunately, bearish expressions started ahead of schedule in 2004. However, bullish expressions, which solidified in October 2004, synchronized beautifully with historical standards with a bullish outburst. The Quick-term Indicant accurately revealed an early start to bullish seasonality in late 2004. It accurately revealed the lack of respect for historical bearish standards in the August-September rolling bi-monthly period in 2004. However, the meandering market theme that began in 2004 has persisted throughout 2005.

Bullish seasonality ended on April 30, 2005. The market remains firmly situated into bearish seasonality. The market continues to configure itself to support historical standards by expressing bearish behavior, although mildly. However, recent bullish spurts have pushed some indices up during this bearish seasonal period. That is expected to change in the upcoming weeks and reinforce the standards of bearish seasonality. You have seen that the past two weeks with bearish market behavior.

Although not surprising, 2005 began with unfavorable performance to bullish seasonality standards. The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear in early January 2005. Bearish expressions followed. At first, these bearish expressions were mild, but 33-weeks ago, bearish behavior revealed greater aggression. However, that aggression was muted with several bullish spurts. Those bullish spurts were weak but possessed enough bullish steam to thwart dynamic bearish behavior. The residual components of the prior Quick-term Bull and the constitution of the current Mid-term Bull are exhausted from having to thwart bearish ambition.

The July bullish spurt propelled many stocks to catapult their bullish red curves. That is indeed non-bearish. On the contrary, this is not necessarily bullish. The bullish spurts have provided a forum for a relaxed view of your hold positions. Stocks and funds seldom endure deep bearish behavior while they reside above their respective bullish red curves. The most recent bullish spurt shifted the Quick-term Indicant from a bearish bias to nearly neutral. Although, the Quick-term attributes still did not signal bull, the mild bearish bias is reason for continued relaxation with respect to your longer-term hold positions. However, the past five weeks have increased many of the Quick-term attributes to expand support for bearish influences.

All the Quick-term attributes remain biased with bearish tendencies even though the Mid-term Bull continues to demonstrate significant resistance to bearish ambition. As stated the past few weeks, there were some quick-term attributes shifting in support of even more bearish expressions. However, the bullish spurts have been strong enough to shift those attributes to neutrality. However, they are again shifting from neutrality to increased bearish bias.

The presidential post election year is, historically, the most bearish year on the four-year presidential election cycle. Like all things, there are exceptions to historical normalcy. As this year progresses, the various Indicant models will advise if 2005 is an exception or normal. So far, this year appears normal; that is bearish. The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant continue signaling bear, as they have been doing since early January 2005. The Mid-term and Long-term Indicant models continue to signal bull. The mid-term and long-term trends exerted their authority over the shorter cycles in the last three weeks of July. That was followed with bearish behavior in August 2005 and so far this month.

As previously stated, these bullish spurts and the uncharacteristic bullish May and July added continued life to the Mid-term Bulls. This has deferred massive selling that will unfold at the expiration of these Mid-term Bull markets. As stated the past few months, do not be surprised with increased bearish behavior over the next few weeks.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0001.htm

Make certain you read the entire pages on the above link. You will see there are exceptions.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant continues recommending a stop loss of 5% because of the Quick-term Bear. This stop loss was changed from 8% several month’s ago because of the expectation of increased bearish influence and at best, meandering behavior.

If you are up by 50% or more, you may find it advantageous to set your stop-loss at 15% from your current hold position. If you sold a stock on the stop loss and the Indicant continues to signal hold, do not buy the stock unless the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull.

Use a 10% trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 10% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 10% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 20% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending and excessive concerns about social issues. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money. High performing companies remain focused on honoring the investments made by their shareholders.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds with those “bearish” attributes. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report. Use the Quick-term Indicant as a guide in your decision-making processes. If the stock price is falling in a Quick-term Bear market, it is not advisable to buy.

Do not short on stocks if they are up from an avoid signal. Stocks go up more often than they go down. Stocks have a tendency to march to their own drumbeat when rising. Some stocks rise and continue to rise in the most severe of bear markets. Short selling opens up an opportunity for the snakes on Wall Street to take everything you own. They can cause a stock to rise at their whim and without any regard to fundamental reason. It usually does not make sense to bet against the sweat and toil of hard-working people. There are some instances where stocks rise during bear markets due to legitimate fundamental reasons. If the market emulates a 1970’s configuration, most stocks will plummet, but energy related stocks will skyrocket. It is unusual that energy has been skyrocketing the past three years, of which two of those years enjoyed bullish market behavior. The coexistence of a bullish energy sector and general equities does not make much fundamental sense, but the underlying economic fundamentals have supported this phenomenon. There is good reason to expect an abandonment of this phenomenon with record setting oil prices and rising interest rates.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public, while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

Mild bearish convergence occurred the past two weeks. This follows the previous two weeks of bullish convergence. This flip-flopping between bullish and bearish convergence is consistent with meandering market behavior.

As stated the past 19-weeks, the Mid-term Bull still has some fight in it. However, it continues expending too much energy in a defensive posture. There is not enough bullish convergence to ignite strong bullish behavior by the major indices. The past two weeks of bearish convergence is a little discerning here in the throes of deep bearish seasonality.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Most currencies have now shifted cyclically in support of continuing strength in the U.S. Dollar. This is apparent by the shift in the direction of the bearish yellow curve. This configuration suggests the Mid-term Indicant’s prognosis that commitments are made to a stronger U.S. Dollar.

The only exception to this is the Canadian Dollar. Although the Canadian Dollar weakened last week, it has not yet made this cyclical mid-term commitment to weaken against the greenback. The Athabasca Tar Sand Oil potential continues to threaten the Canadian cost advantage. The perception of huge imports to the U.S. will provide increased difficulty for the Canadian Dollar to continue weakening.

This paragraph will remain unchanged until such time conditions change. Rising interest rates tend to strengthen the dollar. That will damage export business and eventually hurt the U.S. manufacturing economy. This is consistent with historical “political management” of the U.S. economy. In other words, the political community understands power retention is a function of economic health on Election Day. After presidential elections, there is no immediate concern for economic health. That is the case right now. That sort of thing is typically more pronounced in a lame duck term, which is underway. The stock market’s meandering nature is indeed impressive in this lame duck, post presidential election year.

There is nothing new to report on commodity prices, even though several expressed bearish behavior last week. Commodity prices continue their bullish commitment from already stratospheric levels. This recent movement is dynamic. As stated the last several weeks, the trend in commodity prices will continue north as long as oil prices continue in that direction. The Mid-term Indicant Bull’s resilience in the face of this inflationary threat is indeed impressive. It is only a matter of time before this unrelenting pricing pressure on commodities produces unacceptable inflationary behavior.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% one-hundred and seventy weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. One-hundred and sixty-three weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 195.9%. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 43.4%. After falling sharply fourteen weeks ago, it bounced north in 12-weeks of the past 14-weeks. It was down slightly last week.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28, is up 18.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 26, 2005. That annualizes to 231.5%, which is not an impossible performance level if oil prices continue to mount. This fund should do well in the event this market turns into a 1970’s type of market. If oil reaches $100 per barrel, do not be surprised at gold moving up by these amounts. This fund also fell slightly last week.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, which is isolated in the energy sector, is up 270.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2002. It is annualizing at 85.9%. Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, is up 147.9% (annualized at 59.0%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on April 5, 2003. Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, is up 104.0% (annualized at 57.0%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, is up 118.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It is annualized at 55.3%. These energy related funds were mixed last week, although Hurricane Rita threatened refining capacity.

These funds should do well even if the market turns extremely bearish. Continue to hold them.

The Gold/Silver Index is up 16.6%, annualizing at a 212.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on August 26, 2005.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

Read your daily reports. This section will be replaced by daily reports on Exchange Traded Funds next week.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The Indicant Volume Indicator is now moving in a robust direction. Much of this robust configuration has been concurrent to bearish expressions. That significantly elevates bearish bias for the overall stock market.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

For more information about the Quick-term Indicant, refer to last week’s daily reports.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – MTI-RYS – Ten U.S. Indices

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

This is the last week International Indices will be tracked. Too often new U.S. companies use International symbols. There are several Exchange Traded Funds tracked by the Indicant that will serve the same purpose.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

September 17, 2005 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 09, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

Exchange Traded Funds and Quick-term Indicant Update

As stated in last week’s report, the Quick-term Indicant will be tracking thirty Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s). It will discontinue tracking the ten major market indices on a daily basis. This will allow Indicant members a more direct way of making money in the stock market based on the Quick-term, Short-term, and Consolidated Quick/Short-term signals.

This is scheduled to be released by October 1, which will coincide with the expiration of deep bearish seasonality. Click the following link to view the Exchange Traded Funds that will be mentioned in the daily reports and the weekly reports. The signals will be easy. As always, they will be buy, hold, sell, and avoid. This will also allow buying and selling more frequently than allowed by the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, there will be intermittent signals to buy or sell after the original one. However, the Indicant’s report card will continue to base performance off the original buy or sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant for Exchange Traded Funds is designed to avoid deep bearish cycles and participate in powerful bull legs. It will include options strategies for those of you intent on shorter-term trading. The tour is in its final stages of preparation.

Click the below link to get a sneak preview of the thirty Exchange Traded Funds that will be tracked by the Quick-term Indicant on a daily basis. The tour is still under construction, but it does not hurt to take an early look at the charts and familiarize yourself with them. There is also a link to read the profiles for each.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/ETF-Tours/ETF-Tour-Intro01.htm

We picked these particular ETF’s because they are the most popular. They consistently lead in volume. That will ensure the availability of a ready buyer or seller to your trades.

Now, to the weekly report.

Deep Bearish Seasonality Continues in Meandering Mode

As you can see from the following link, the Dow dipped slightly last week on the Mid-term Indicant charts. So far, deep bearish seasonality has been harmless.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-01-DJIA-Curr.htm

The Dow30 is up 2.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on November 5, 2004. Most of that rise occurred in December 2004. Since then, this index has simply been meandering with a slightly bullish bias.

The NASDAQ remained a red bull. However, it was also victimized by timid bearish behavior last week. Click the following link to view its chart.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-03-NASDAQ%20Curr.htm

Although the Mid-caps fell to bearish ambitions this past week, this index remains safely above bullish red. This means there is little dynamic bearish threats from a Mid-term perspective.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTIRYS-Mkts-US/MTI-RYS-09-SP400-Curr.htm

The Mid-caps and Small-caps continue to show little respect to any bearish overture.

Hurricane Katrina introduced a bullish effect on the stock market. It flattened out interest rates, much like it flattened the landscape in its path. The stock market, quite often, responds bullishly to natural disasters. The old axiom is to buy when the news is worse. Things can only get better.

The rebuilding of the U.S. Gulf Coast is an economic stimulant. The corresponding immediate rise in unemployment imposes enough political pressure to hold off on souring economic activity, which is a common practice in presidential post election years. The equity markets believe Greenspan’s interest rate hikes are on hold for now. However, deep bearish seasonality cares little about external factors and imposes bearish behavior more often than not at this time of year. A meandering market is vulnerable to this. The strength and maturity of the Mid-term Bull, though, suggests no dynamic bearish behavior on the immediate horizon.

Do not be surprised at deep bearish seasonality exerting greater influence over the next few weeks. The good news is there are only a few weeks remaining for this threatening time of year.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated three buy signals and one sell signal for stocks and funds. Again, these buy signals were stimulated the bullish red curve. The Mid-term Indicant never avoids a security priced above its red curve.

In addition to the sell signal, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 85-stocks and funds of the 320 tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 9.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 22.6-weeks ago.

There were 84-stocks and funds avoided at this time last year. The avoided stocks and funds one year ago were down an average of 27.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 46.9-weeks earlier. Two years ago, on September 20, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was avoiding only 16-stocks and funds that were down an average of 23.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 31.4-weeks earlier.

In addition to the buy signal, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 231 of the 320 stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 105.8%. That annualizes to 60.8%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 231-stocks and funds for an average of 90.4-weeks.

One year ago, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 186-stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked at that time for an average of 59.6-weeks. They were up 78.2% (annualized at 68.2%). The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 271-stocks and funds of the 296 tracked two years ago on September 20, 2003. They were up by an average of 53.8% (annualized at 101.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 27.5-weeks earlier.

Secular Market Blend

This section is a repeat from the last several months with a few modifications, reflecting recent secular influences. Although appearing redundant at times, it is important to read it each week to detect secular market shifts. The current Mid-term Bull market and buying barrage in late 2002 followed the predicted market bottom in 2002. The mid-term presidential election year phenomenon was consistent with history. Even more impressive was how the market synchronized with near perfection to normal seasonality in 2002.

The Dow30 found bottom on October 9, 2002 at 7286.27. The NASDAQ found bottom on the same day at 1114.11. As earlier stated, the Indicant began its buying barrage in October – November 2002 just after the market bottomed from the severe 2000-2002 Bear Market. There were 239 buy signals between October 5, 2002 and November 9, 2002 out of the 296 stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time.

Some of you recall the Short-term Indicant Bear for the NASDAQ was the longest in history. It even exceeded the Dow’s 1929-1932 Short-term Indicant Bear in breadth and approached it in magnitude. The good news is that the NASDAQ’s decline did not lead to a depression, which is a clear indication of how little influence tech stocks have on the economy. There are two important axioms to remember. Economic wealth is delivered in only three ways - manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction. All other industries are merely transfer agents of wealth. The only positive influence politicians have on the economy is to undo their prior damage.

The remainder of this section, Secular Market Blend, is repeated, in part, from the past several months, but it does not hurt to reread it each week. As time progresses and conditions change, there will be modifications to it to maintain a balanced frame of reference.

You will notice many of the mutual fund buy signals occurred in March 2003. Many of you recall how the market did not synchronize with the heart and soul of bullish seasonality from November 2002 through February 2003. After the asynchronous behavior in the November 2002 rolling third of the year, the market turned bullish in March 2003 and again did not synchronize with normal seasonality. The Mid-term Indicant continued signaling bull during bearish seasonality during most of 2003. The market continued moving north during that time, contrary to historical standards. As stated in most of 2004, bearish expressions on a Mid-term basis between May and October 2004 should not be surprising. That is exactly what occurred.

The year, 2004, was consistent with normal bearish seasonality. Unfortunately, bearish expressions started ahead of schedule in 2004. However, bullish expressions, which solidified in October 2004, synchronized beautifully with historical standards with a bullish outburst. The Quick-term Indicant accurately revealed an early start to bullish seasonality in late 2004. It accurately revealed the lack of respect for historical bearish standards in the August-September rolling bi-monthly period in 2004. However, the meandering market theme that began in 2004 has persisted throughout 2005.

Bullish seasonality ended on April 30, 2005. The market remains firmly situated into bearish seasonality. The market continues to configure itself to support historical standards by expressing bearish behavior, although mildly. However, recent bullish spurts have pushed some indices up during this bearish seasonal period. That is expected to change in the upcoming weeks and reinforce the standards of bearish seasonality. As stated the last several weeks in this report, continued meandering behavior is expected. It stated that August would be bearish. That is exactly what happened.

Although not surprising, 2005 began with unfavorable performance to bullish seasonality standards. The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear in early January 2005. Bearish expressions followed. At first, these bearish expressions were mild, but 32-weeks ago, bearish behavior revealed greater aggression. However, that aggression was muted with several bullish spurts. Those bullish spurts were weak but possessed enough bullish steam to thwart dynamic bearish behavior. However, residual components of the prior Quick-term Bull and the constitution of the current Mid-term Bull are exhausted from having to thwart bearish ambition.

The July bullish spurt propelled many stocks to catapult their bullish red curves. That is indeed non-bearish. On the contrary, this is not necessarily bullish. The bullish spurts have provided a forum for a relaxed view of your hold positions. Stocks and funds seldom endure deep bearish behavior while they reside above their respective bullish red curves. The most recent bullish spurt shifted the Quick-term Indicant from a bearish bias to nearly neutral. Although, the Quick-term attributes still did not signal bull, the mild bearish bias is reason for continued relaxation with respect to your longer-term hold positions. However, the past five weeks have increased many of the Quick-term attributes to expand support for bearish influences.

All the Quick-term attributes remain biased with bearish tendencies even though the Mid-term Bull continues to demonstrate significant resistance to bearish ambition. As stated the past few weeks, there were some quick-term attributes shifting in support of even more bearish expressions. However, the bullish spurts have been strong enough to shift those attributes to neutrality. However, they are again shifting from neutrality to increased bearish bias.

The presidential post election year is, historically, the most bearish year on the four-year presidential election cycle. Like all things, there are exceptions to historical normalcy. As this year progresses, the various Indicant models will advise if 2005 is an exception or normal. So far, this year appears normal; that is bearish. The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant continue signaling bear, as they have been doing since early January 2005. The Mid-term and Long-term Indicant models continue to signal bull. The mid-term and long-term trends exerted their authority over the shorter cycles in the last three weeks of July. That was followed with bearish behavior in August 2005.

As previously stated, these bullish spurts and the uncharacteristic bullish May and July added continued life to the Mid-term Bulls. This has deferred massive selling that will unfold at the expiration of these Mid-term Bull markets. As stated the past few months, do not be surprised with increased bearish behavior over the next few weeks. This year has an increasing chance to be bullish.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0001.htm

Make certain you read the entire pages on the above link. You will see there are exceptions.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant continues recommending a stop loss of 5% because of the Quick-term Bear. This stop loss was changed from 8% several month’s ago because of the expectation of increased bearish influence and at best, meandering behavior.

If you are up by 50% or more, you may find it advantageous to set your stop-loss at 15% from your current hold position. If you sold a stock on the stop loss and the Indicant continues to signal hold, do not buy the stock unless the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull.

Use a 10% trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 10% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 10% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 20% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending and excessive concerns about social issues. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money. High performing companies remain focused on honoring the investments made by their shareholders.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds with those “bearish” attributes. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report. Use the Quick-term Indicant as a guide in your decision-making processes. If the stock price is falling in a Quick-term Bear market, it is not advisable to buy.

Do not short on stocks if they are up from an avoid signal. Stocks go up more often than they go down. Stocks have a tendency to march to their own drumbeat when rising. Some stocks rise and continue to rise in the most severe of bear markets. Short selling opens up an opportunity for the snakes on Wall Street to take everything you own. They can cause a stock to rise at their whim and without any regard to fundamental reason. It usually does not make sense to bet against the sweat and toil of hard-working people. There are some instances where stocks rise during bear markets due to legitimate fundamental reasons. If the market emulates a 1970’s configuration, most stocks will plummet, but energy related stocks will skyrocket. It is unusual that energy has been skyrocketing the past three years, of which two of those years enjoyed bullish market behavior. The coexistence of a bullish energy sector and general equities does not make much fundamental sense, but the underlying economic fundamentals have supported this phenomenon. There is good reason to expect an abandonment of this phenomenon with record setting oil prices and rising interest rates.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public, while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

After two weeks of mild bullish convergence, the meanderer again exerted its influence. Mild bearish convergence occurred last week. This flip flopping behavior has now been going on for over a year and a half.

As stated the past 18-weeks, the Mid-term Bull still has some fight in it. However, it continues expending too much energy in a defensive posture. There is not enough bullish convergence to ignite strong bullish behavior by the major indices. Last weeks bearish convergence is a little discerning here in the throes of deep bearish seasonality.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

The Canadian dollar continues strengthening against the U.S. dollar. As stated the past two weeks, this is a strategic move ahead of the profound Canadian exports of Athabasca Tar Sand Oil in the years ahead. This will eventually hurt Canadian manufacturing industries since the favorable exchange rate motivated many multinational nationals to expand there. The strengthening Canadian dollar will reduce their cost competitiveness.

As stated the past 14-weeks, there remains no cyclical shift in direction on the U.S. Dollars recent strengthening. Cyclically, it is still weak, but the cyclical shift in foreign currencies expresses increasing potential for a new trend in the greenbacks strengthening (with the exception of the Canadian dollar). The continued rise in interest rates, which is in a pause mode due to hurricane Katrina, supports continuing strength in the U.S. Dollar.

This paragraph will remain unchanged until such time conditions change. Rising interest rates tend to strengthen the dollar. That will damage export business and eventually hurt the U.S. manufacturing economy. This is consistent with historical “political management” of the U.S. economy. In other words, the political community understands power retention is a function of economic health on Election Day. After presidential elections, there is no immediate concern for economic health. That is the case right now. That sort of thing is typically more pronounced in a lame duck term, which is underway. The stock market’s meandering nature is indeed impressive in this lame duck, post presidential election year.

Hurricane Katrina did her part at slowing the rise in interest rates. They are flat to down the past two weeks.. The stock market was favorably impressed with Katrina’s influence on interest rates two weeks ago. But, as stated last week, the market resumed its focus on the next six to nine months. Last weeks bearish behavior indicates the market finds no reason to think 2006 will have a banner start in terms of economic activity.

There is nothing new to report on commodity prices. Commodity prices continue their bullish commitment from already stratospheric levels. This recent movement is dynamic. As stated the last several weeks, the trend in commodity prices will continue north as long as oil prices continue in that direction. The Mid-term Indicant Bull’s resilience in the face of this inflationary threat is indeed impressive. It is only a matter of time before this unrelenting pricing pressure on commodities produces unacceptable inflationary behavior.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% one-hundred and sixty-nine weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. One-hundred and sixty-two weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 197.9%. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 44.1%. After falling sharply thirteen weeks ago, it bounced north in 12-weeks of the past 13-weeks.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28, is up 18.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 26, 2005. That annualizes to 323.0%, which is not an impossible performance level if oil prices continue to mount. This fund should do well in the event this market turns into a 1970’s type of market. If oil reaches $100 per barrel, do not be surprised at gold moving up by these amounts.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, which is isolated in the energy sector, is up 272.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2002. It is annualizing at 86.9%. Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, is up 147.3% (annualized at 59.3%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on April 5, 2003. Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, is up 103.0% (annualized at 57.1%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, is up 116.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It is annualized at 55.2%.

These funds should do well even if the market turns extremely bearish. Continue to hold them.

The Gold/Silver Index is up 17.8%, annualizing at a 304.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on August 26, 2005.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

The Quick-term Indicant Bear that was born on January 4, 2005 has now survived for 36-weeks. As stated the past several weeks, that is a long period of survival spanning four months of the six months of bullish seasonality. The market is now mired inside bearish seasonality. The market entered into deep bearish seasonality three weeks ago. Contrarian bullish behavior in the first two weeks of deep bearish seasonality fell victim to normal bearishness last week. Nothing has changed in the past few weeks. Do not be surprised at increased bearish activity in the next few weeks. The impending bearishness will most likely be mild. Expect more quick-term bearishness.

The indices continue determining any potential comfort zones around bullish red. As stated the past 17-weeks, such comfort around their respective bullish red curves should not be expected. Seventeen weeks ago all eight indices were above bullish red. Sixteen weeks ago, six were above bullish red. Fifteen weeks ago, only three were above bullish red. Nine weeks ago, three were above bullish red and three were below bearish yellow. Five weeks ago, all eight were above bullish red. Four weeks ago only one index remains above the bullish red curve. Bullish behavior in two of the past three weeks pushed seven of the eight major indices back above their respective bullish red curves. As stated last week, the Quick-term is now configuring into supporting increased bearish bias. However, the bias shifted from neutrality to quick-term bearishness last week.

The eight major indices are up by an average of 4.7% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bear on January 4, 2005. It has been stated to expect the Quick-term Indicant to be accurate with overall bearish performance by mid September when the market should be down from the January 4, 2005 bear signal. The Dow is up a mere 0.1% since the January 4, 2005 bear signal. The NASDAQ100 is up a little more by 1.8% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bear on January 4, 2005. The S&P400 and S&P600 are both up by double digit amounts since that bear signal. It is apparent Mid-caps and Small-caps are not participants in this meandering market. The Quick-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s will allow you to participate in sectored bullish markets.

Read the daily emails for more about the Quick-term Indicant. It is still a Quick-term Bear.

Please review the daily reports for more details regarding the Quick-term Indicant.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The Indicant Volume Indicator is now moving in a robust direction. Unfortunately, it has not yet obviated the market’s bullish or bearish intentions. The recent increase in volume has been concurrent to both bullish and bearish behavior. Hurricane Katrina apparently invited more participation in the stock market, but the big money folks are at odds on what direction the market should take. Keep your eye on this in the next few days.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The Dow is up 1.6% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bear on January 20, 2005. The NASDAQ is up 3.9% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bear on January 11, 2005. Both indices are Short-term Bears but performing contrary to the bear signal. This is due to heavy bearish weight imposed during post-presidential election years and the deep bearish seasonal period underway.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

Perspectives

Nothing has changed in the past several weeks. Six of the eight major indices continue to threaten contact with their respective breakdown lines. Contact with them will support increased bearish behavior. As stated three weeks ago, the S&P400 and S&P600 discontinued contacting their breakout lines, suggesting non-bullish desires at this time on a quick-term basis. The other indices continue threatening contact with their breakdown lines, which supports a bearish bias. Overall, this meanderer continues to pester desires of rampant bullish or bearish expressions. Please read the daily reports, as this element will offer greater insight in the next few weeks.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant), please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Refer to the daily reports for more information about the Quick-term Indicant.

For more information about the Quick-term Indicant, refer to last week’s daily reports.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

The MTI-RYS model is replacing this model in a few weeks. Both have been reported on the past year and are somewhat redundant. The MTI-RYS model will be referred to as the Mid-term Indicant in the future.

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The eight major indices are up an average of 33.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 99.8-weeks ago. That annualizes to 17.3%. The Dow Utilities is the strongest bull. It is up 80.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on August 16, 2003. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 24.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on March 22, 2003. The Dow Composite is up 47.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on March 22, 2003. The Dow Transports Index is up 60.5% since the Mid-term Indicant bull signal on March 23, 2003.

Seven of the eight major indices are red bulls, which is up by one from last week. The Dow Transports remain as the only non-red-bull.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions – MTI-RYS – Ten U.S. Indices

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

In anticipation of the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracking of Exchange Traded Funds, this section will no longer be reported on in the next few weeks. That is because the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant will track the top thirty volume producing Exchange Traded Funds. These funds happen to cover the diversity of this section. It will also provide Indicant members greater money making opportunities by daily direct access to safer investments and with the protection of the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models.

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Although there were no new bull signals, twenty-one of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 129.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 130.7-weeks ago for an annualized gain of 51.4%. International indices moved north the past three weeks. As stated the past 14-weeks, do not be surprised at increased bearish behavior in the next few weeks.

The lone bear is down 2.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear 36.0-weeks ago.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

In anticipation of the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracking of Exchange Traded Funds, this section will no longer be reported on in the next few weeks. That is because the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant will track the top thirty volume producing Exchange Traded Funds. These funds happen to cover the diversity of this section. It will also provide Indicant members greater money making opportunities by daily direct access to safer investments and with the protection of the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models.

September 11, 2005 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 09, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

Special Announcement

The Quick-term Indicant will be tracking the top 30 Exchange Traded Funds in the next few weeks. This will be a major shift in the daily reporting of the Indicant. Although the broader indices have been meandering this year, several smaller sectors have been exceedingly bullish the past two years. It is increasingly misleading to track just the broader market indices. Also, it will be to the financial advantage of Indicant members to gain a more direct correlation between the Quick-term Indicant’s daily reports and personal financial performance. For example, the NASDAQ or Dow can plummet to the south while some of the Exchange Traded Funds will continue to zoom to the north. Also, for those of members who like options trading can play the market in either direction with equal gusto.

Increasing computing capacity is affording the Quick-term Indicant’s multidimensional data to do more for its members. We look forward to publishing the tour for you before the end of this month and shifting the Indicant daily reports from broad market interpretations to more direct moneymaking opportunities for its members.

One of the biggest complaints from new members is that the Mid-term Indicant signals buy only once during a major bullish swings. If that bullish movement continues, the Mid-term Indicant only signals hold and will continue to signal hold until the next sell signal. The Mid-term Indicant does not offer intermediate buy or sell signals. It only signals hold or avoid during the underlying cyclical behavior. For example, the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy for the State Street Global Energy SSGRX on August 16, 2002. That particular fund is up 267.5% since that buy signal. Members who joined after August 16, 2002 did not enjoy the participation in that buy signal. They only watch the fund continue to increase during the hold signal without the benefit of intermediate buy signals.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/MTI-Mutual%20Funds/MF02.htm#9

Another example of new member complaints is the Mid-term Indicant’s buy signal for Apple Computer on May 3, 2003. That stock is up 610.2% since that buy signal. The Mid-term Indicant has signaled hold since then. There were no subsequent buy signals.

The Indicant has consolidated the Quick-term and Short-term models for Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s). Both models will signal buy and sell much more frequently than the Mid-term Indicant. That will help newer members get a piece of bullish action or benefit from bearish behavior. The consolidation of the Quick-term Indicant and Short-term Indicant was an accidental discovery. When both models are signaling the same, the consolidated model will offer fewer trades for those who prefer trading less frequently, much like our long-term oriented members’ preferences.

As always, the Indicant processes its performance against buy and hold performance to validate its integrity. The Quick-term Indicant and Short-term Indicant individually beat buy and hold for most of the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s). Some are relatively new and the Quick-term and Short-term multidimensional data has not penetrated the heart and soul of their underlying movements. So, exercise caution on the new ETF’s.

However, the consolidated model beats buy and hold for nearly all exchange traded funds. The tour will use the QQQQ ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) since it is the most popular fund and nearly everyone is familiar with it. Some other ETF’s perform at a much higher level than that of the QQQQ, which has been meandering the past two years..

The Indicant will await your comments and observations before expanding this concept to stocks. The Mid-term Indicant will always track normal mutual funds since volume data is not available. Volume is dimensionally significant in buying and selling influences. The Indicant will continue to avoid Exchange Traded Funds that do not offer a lot of daily volume. This ensures the availability of a willing trader for Indicant members on the Indicant’s buy or sell signal.

The Mid-term Indicant will discontinue tracking the Option Indices and International Indices. The International Indices are difficult to track because from time to time, new U.S. public companies take their symbols. Since several popular Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) to be tracked by the Indicant are foreign based, Indicant members who enjoy foreign-based investments will continue to enjoy an avenue of making money in International markets. Several of the Option Indices are redundant to the ETF’s and thus it is no longer necessary for the Mid-term Indicant to track them.

Now to the normal weekly report.

Deep Bearish Seasonality and a Major Paradigm Shift in Stock Market Investing

Unexpectedly in terms of historical standards, September has started out with unseasonable bullish behavior. The Dow is up 196.96 points or by 1.9% this month. The NASDAQ is up 1.1% and the S&P500 is up 1.7% so far this month.

Not unexpectedly, the Dow is down 104.45 points for the year. The NASDAQ is flat so far this year. These broad market indices have been meandering this year. It is not surprising for the market to meander during the presidential post election year under the influence of a solid Mid-term Bull market.

The presidential post election year is historically the most bearish of the four-year cycle. An investment originating in 1832 would have lost money by 1980 if only invested in the presidential post election year. That 150-year trend was abandoned in the 1980’s with an unprecedented shift in a paradigm from political importance to that of entrepreneurial importance. However, it is always appropriate to not completely abandon a 150-year bias based on the last 25-years of contrarian performance. Therefore, this historical phenomenon is still weighted in the various Indicant models. This phenomenon will not be weighted in the Exchange Traded Funds because of the lack of history.

The Dow being down by 104.45 points so far this year is consistent with the historical normalcy of the bearishness contained in the presidential post election year. A market that is down by a mere 1.0% can hardly be described as a bear market, but the direction is consistent with historical standards. So far this year has been a meandering market with a bearish bias, which has been the theme for the most part of this year and much of last year. The NASDAQ100 is down by a little over a percentage point so far this year, while the NASDAQ is flat. That is indicative of a meandering market of which Indicant members are very familiar with the past two years.

It is easy to detect the 1980’s paradigm shift when looking at the performance of newer indices, such as the S&P400 (Mid-Caps) and S&P600 (Small Caps). Those two indices are up by a whopping 8.6% and 7.4%, respectively. The stock market investment community has always rewarded those who make money. The large caps make money, but not nearly as much as they should due to the disproportionate number of dilettante managers who populate their executive offices. The small caps and mid-cap managers cannot afford to tolerate the dilettantes. Consequently, the exclusion of stupidity in the ranks of the smaller companies propels their stock prices higher.

However, the surprise is this month’s market performance. The Dow is up 196.96 points or by 1.9% so far this month. A 1950 $10,000 investment in the Dow30 stocks only in the month of September would amount to a mere $5,056. In other words if you invested only in the month of September since 1950, you would have lost almost half of your money. A similar S&P500 investment would now be at $6,132 since 1950. A 1971 $10,000 NASDAQ investment would now be worth $6,533 if only conducted during the month of September. That contrasts significantly with the $30,264 if only invested during the month of January.

Last year’s September was not bearish. The NASDAQ rose by a solidly bullish 3.2%. That was not surprising. The Quick-term Indicant signaled bull in September 2004 and the Mid-term Indicant generated nearly 100 buy signals from August through October 1, 2004. That was not surprising, since most of 2004 was a meandering market, but it was also a presidential election year. The presidential election year is historically the second most bullish on the four-year cycle.

Also, the Indicant Volume Indicator obviated the market’s lack of respect for historical standards last year with a robust expression concurrent with bullish market behavior. That combination is a no-brainer with respect to the market’s quick-term and immediate mid-term intentions. The year-end rally in 2004 was appropriately bullish and not surprising.

This Indicant’s Quick-term attributes are shifting away from bearish bias, but not completely. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator is shifting out of its lethargic pattern into what could evolve into a robust configuration. That embryonic movement from lethargy paralleled bullish expressions last week. If that combination continues, the market will obviate its bullish intentions. The problem right now is the embryonic nature of this new configuration. It has to mature for the obvious to appear.

Scrolling down on the below link, you will notice the NASDAQ’s Indicant Volume Indicator has not yet shifted to the north. It has flattened out of its lethargic pattern, but there is no shift to any potential robustness yet. It is configured in support of indecisiveness, which supports meandering expressions.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

Consequently, these configurations are not yet obviating the markets’ intentions quick-term and mid-term intentions. Some of the other Quick-term Indicant’s attributes are shifting from bearish bias to bullish bias. There are a few question marks with Vector Pressure and the Indicant Volume Indicator needs to shift into a pattern of robust clarity. It may do that next week. So, keep your eye on this.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated five buy signals and one sell signal for stocks and funds. Again, these buy signals were stimulated the bullish red curve. The Mid-term Indicant never avoids a security priced above its red curve.

In addition to the sell signal, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 87-stocks and funds of the 320 tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 7.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 21.7-weeks ago.

There were 104-stocks and funds avoided at this time last year. The avoided stocks and funds one year ago were down an average of 26.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 45.6-weeks earlier. Two years ago, on September 13, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was avoiding only 18-stocks and funds that were down an average of 8.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 13.5-weeks earlier.

In addition to the buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 225 of the 320 stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 106.9%. That annualizes to 60.7%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 225-stocks and funds for an average of 91.5-weeks.

One year ago, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 187-stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked at that time for an average of 58.6-weeks. They were up 75.7% (annualized at 67.2%). The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 268-stocks and funds of the 296 tracked two years ago on September 13, 2003. They were up by an average of 51.4% (annualized at 96.9%) since their respective buy signals an average of 27.6-weeks earlier.

Secular Market Blend

This section is a repeat from the last several months with a few modifications, reflecting recent secular influences. The current Mid-term Bull market and buying barrage in late 2002 followed the predicted market bottom in 2002. The mid-term presidential election year phenomenon was consistent with history. Even more impressive was how the market synchronized with near perfection to normal seasonality in 2002.

The Dow30 found bottom on October 9, 2002 at 7286.27. The NASDAQ found bottom on the same day at 1114.11. As earlier stated, the Indicant began its buying barrage in October – November 2002 just after the market bottomed from the severe 2000-2002 Bear Market. There were 239 buy signals between October 5, 2002 and November 9, 2002 out of the 296 stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

Some of you recall the Short-term Indicant Bear for the NASDAQ was the longest in history. It even exceeded the Dow’s 1929-1932 Short-term Indicant Bear in breadth and approached it in magnitude. The good news is that the NASDAQ’s decline did not lead to a depression, which is a clear indication of how little influence tech stocks have on the economy. Remember, real economic wealth is delivered in only three ways - manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction. All other industries are merely transfer agents of wealth. The only positive political influence on the economy is to undo its prior damage.

The remainder of this section, Secular Market Blend, is repeated, in part, from the past several months, but it does not hurt to reread it each week. As time progresses and conditions change, there will be modifications to it to maintain a balanced frame of reference.

You will notice many of the mutual fund buy signals occurred in March 2003. Many of you recall how the market did not synchronize with the heart and soul of bullish seasonality from November 2002 through February 2003. After the asynchronous behavior in the November 2002 rolling third of the year, the market turned bullish in March 2003 and again did not synchronize with normal seasonality. The Mid-term Indicant continued signaling bull during bearish seasonality during most of 2003. The market continued moving north during that time, contrary to historical standards. As stated in most of 2004, bearish expressions on a Mid-term basis between May and October 2004 should not be surprising. That is exactly what occurred.

The year, 2004, was consistent with normal bearish seasonality. Unfortunately, bearish expressions started ahead of schedule in 2004. However, the bullish expressions, which solidified in October 2004, synchronized beautifully with historical standards with a bullish outburst. The Quick-term Indicant accurately revealed an early start to bullish seasonality in late 2004. It accurately revealed the lack of respect for historical bearish standards in the August-September rolling bi-monthly period.

Bullish seasonality ended on April 30, 2005. The market remains firmly situated into bearish seasonality. The market continues to configure itself to support historical standards by expressing bearish behavior, although mildly. However, recent bullish spurts have pushed some indices up during this bearish seasonal period. That is expected to change in the upcoming weeks and reinforce the standards of bearish seasonality. As stated the last several weeks in this report, continued meandering behavior is expected to resume in August. That suggested August would be bearish. And that is exactly what happened. For example, the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ were down in August 2005.

Although not surprising, 2005 began with unfavorable performance to bullish seasonality standards. The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear in early January 2005. Bearish expressions followed. At first, these bearish expressions were mild, but 31-weeks ago, bearish behavior revealed greater aggression. However, that aggression was muted with several bullish spurts. Those bullish spurts were weak but possessed enough bullish steam to thwart increasing bearish behavior. However, residual components of the prior Quick-term Bull and the constitution of the current Mid-term Bull are exhausted from having to thwart bearish ambition.

The July bullish spurt propelled many stocks to catapult their bullish red curves. That is indeed non-bearish. On the contrary, this is not necessarily bullish. However, it does provide a forum for a relaxed view of your hold positions. Stocks and funds seldom endure deep bearish behavior while they reside above their respective bullish red curves. Also, the most recent bullish spurt shifted the Quick-term Indicant from a bearish bias to nearly neutral. Although, the Quick-term attributes still did not signal bull, the mild bearish bias is reason for continued relaxation with respect to your longer-term hold positions. However, the past four weeks have increased many of the Quick-term attributes to expand support for bearish influences.

All the Quick-term attributes remain biased with bearish tendencies even though the Mid-term Bull continues to demonstrate significant resistance to bearish ambition. As stated the past few weeks, there were some quick-term attributes shifting in support of even more bearish expressions. However, the bullish spurts have been strong enough to shift those attributes to neutrality. However, they are again shifting from neutrality to increased bearish bias.

The presidential post election year is, historically, the most bearish year on the four-year presidential election cycle. Like all things, there are exceptions to historical normalcy. As this year progresses, the various Indicant models will advise if 2005 is an exception or normal. So far, this year appears normal; that is bearish. The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant continue signaling bear, as they have been doing since early January 2005. The Mid-term and Long-term Indicant models continue to signal bull. The mid-term and long-term trends exerted their authority over the shorter cycles in the last three weeks of July. That was followed with bearish behavior in August 2005.

As previously stated, these bullish spurts and the uncharacteristic bullish May and July added continued life to the Mid-term Bulls. This has deferred massive selling that will unfold at the expiration of these Mid-term Bull markets. As stated the past few months, do not be surprised with increased bearish behavior over the next few weeks. This year has an increasing chance to be bullish.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0001.htm

Make certain you read the entire pages on the above link. You will see there are exceptions.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant continues recommending a stop loss of 5% because of the Quick-term Bear. This stop loss was changed from 8% several month’s ago because of the expectation of increased bearish influence and at best, meandering behavior.

If you are up by 50% or more, you may find it advantageous to set your stop-loss at 15% from your current hold position. If you sold a stock on the stop loss and the Indicant continues to signal hold, do not buy the stock unless the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull.

Use a 10% trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 10% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 10% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 20% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending and excessive concerns about social issues. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money. High performing companies remain focused on honoring the investments made by their shareholders.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds with those “bearish” attributes. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report. Use the Quick-term Indicant as a guide in your decision-making processes. If the stock price is falling in a Quick-term Bear market, it is not advisable to buy.

Do not short on stocks if they are up from an avoid signal. Stocks go up more often than they go down. Stocks have a tendency to march to their own drumbeat when rising. Some stocks rise and continue to rise in the most severe of bear markets. Short selling opens up an opportunity for the snakes on Wall Street to take everything you own. They can cause a stock to rise at their whim and without any regard to fundamental reason. It usually does not make sense to bet against the sweat and toil of hard-working people. There are some instances where stocks rise during bear markets due to legitimate fundamental reasons. If the market emulates a 1970’s configuration, most stocks will plummet, but energy related stocks will skyrocket. It is unusual that energy has been skyrocketing the past three years, of which two of those years enjoyed bullish market behavior. The coexistence of a bullish energy sector and general equities does not make much fundamental sense, but the underlying economic fundamentals have supported this phenomenon. There is good reason to expect an abandonment of this phenomenon with record setting oil prices and rising interest rates.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public, while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

There has been mild bullish convergence the past two weeks after several weeks of bearish convergence. One week’s data point is not a trend or cycle. This attribute has been shifty since early 2004 when the meandering market began.

As stated the past 17-weeks, the Mid-term Bull still has some fight in it. However, it continues expending too much energy in a defensive posture. There is not enough bullish convergence to ignite strong bullish behavior by the major indices. However, two consecutive weeks of mild bullish convergence is favorable to an early start to bullish seasonality.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

The Canadian dollar continues strengthening against the greenback. As stated last week, this is a strategic move ahead of the profound Canadian exports of Athabasca Tar Sand Oil in the years ahead. This will eventually hurt Canadian manufacturing industries since the favorable exchange rate motivated many multinational nationals to expand there. The strengthening Canadian dollar will reduce their cost competitiveness.

As stated the past thirteen weeks, there remains no cyclical shift in direction on the U.S. Dollars recent strengthening. Cyclically, it is still weak, but the cyclical shift in foreign currencies expresses increasing potential for a new trend in the greenbacks strengthening (with the exception of the Canadian dollar). The continued rise in interest rates, of which no end is in sight, supports continuing strength in the U.S. Dollar.

This paragraph will remain unchanged until such time conditions change. Rising interest rates tend to strengthen the dollar. That will damage export business and eventually hurt the U.S. manufacturing economy. This is consistent with historical “political management” of the U.S. economy. In other words, the political community understands power retention is a function of economic health on Election Day. After presidential elections, there is no immediate concern for economic health. That is the case right now. That sort of thing is typically more pronounced in a lame duck term, which is underway.

Hurricane Katrina did her part at slowing the rise in interest rates. They were flat to down last week in anticipation of Katrina oriented pressures that will stifle Greenspan’s interest rate hike aggressiveness. The impending rapid increase in Katrina induced unemployment rates may prompt Greenspan to defer his regularly scheduled interest rate hikes. The stock market was favorably impressed with that last week, but rest assured the market will not focus on current news very long. It should refocus on the next six to nine months after it gets over its current euphoric impressions of slackening interest rates.

There is nothing new to report on commodity prices. Commodity prices continue their bullish commitment from already stratospheric levels. This recent movement is dynamic. As stated the last several weeks, the trend in commodity prices will continue north as long as oil prices continue in that direction. The Mid-term Indicant Bull’s resilience in the face of this inflationary threat is indeed impressive. It is only a matter of time before this unrelenting pricing pressure on commodities produces unacceptable inflationary behavior.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% one-hundred and sixty-eight weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. One-hundred and sixty-one weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 188.4%, which is higher than the 75.9% reported 112-weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 42.1%, which is higher than 23.1% reported 112-weeks ago. After falling sharply twelve weeks ago, it bounced north the past 11-weeks of the past 12-weeks.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28, is up 10.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 26, 2005. That annualizes to 267.2%, which is not an impossible performance level if oil prices continue to mount. This fund should do well in the event this market turns into a 1970’s type of market.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, which is isolated in the energy sector, is up 267.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2002. It is annualizing at 86.0%. Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, is up 148.4% (annualized at 60.1%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on April 5, 2003. Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, is up 105.9% (annualized at 59.3%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, is up 119.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It is annualized at 56.8%.

These funds should do well even if the market turns extremely bearish. Continue to hold them.

The Gold/Silver Index is up 9.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on August 26, 2005.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

The Quick-term Indicant Bear that was born on January 4, 2005 has now survived for 35-weeks. As stated the past several weeks, that is a long period of survival spanning four months of the six months of bullish seasonality. The market is now mired inside bearish seasonality. The market entered into deep bearish seasonality two weeks ago, but has been contrarian with its unseasonable bullish behavior. Nothing has changed in the past few weeks. Do not be surprised at increased bearish activity in the next few weeks. The impending bearishness will most likely be mild. Expect more quick-term bearishness.

The indices continue determining any potential comfort zones around bullish red. As stated the past 16-weeks, such comfort around their respective bullish red curves should not be expected. Sixteen weeks ago all eight indices were above bullish red. Fifteen weeks ago, six were above bullish red. Fourteen weeks ago, only three were above bullish red. Eight weeks ago, three were above bullish red and three were below bearish yellow. Four weeks ago, all eight were above bullish red. Three weeks ago only one index remains above the bullish red curve. Bullish behavior the past two weeks has pushed all eight of the indices back above their respective bullish red curves. As stated last week, the Quick-term is now configuring into supporting increased bearish bias. However, the bias is rapidly shifting from strong bearishness to neutral.

The eight major indices are up by an average of 5.1% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bear on January 4, 2005. It has been stated to expect the Quick-term Indicant to be accurate with overall bearish performance by mid September when the market should be down from the January 4, 2005 bear signal. However, September’s strong bullish expressions are clouding that prognosis.

Read the daily emails for more about the Quick-term Indicant. It is still a Quick-term Bear.

Please review the daily reports for more details regarding the Quick-term Indicant.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

The Indicant Volume Indicator is mixed. As earlier stated the NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator appears to be shifting from the lethargic pattern, while the NASDAQ’s remains mired in either flatness or lethargy. A robust shift will obviate the market’s intention. That configuration does not support dynamic bearish behavior, even though the Quick-term Indicant remains biased in favor of bearish expressions. Keep your eye on this indicator as it from time to time obviates the market’s mid-term and quick-term intentions.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The Dow is up 1.2% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bear on January 20, 2005. The NASDAQ is up 4.2% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bear on January 11, 2005. Both indices are Short-term Bears but performing contrary to the bear signal. This is due to heavy bearish weight imposed during post-presidential election years and the deep bearish seasonal period underway.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

Perspectives

Nothing has changed in the past several weeks. Six of the eight major indices continue to threaten contact with their respective breakdown lines. Contact with them will support increased bearish behavior. As stated three weeks ago, the S&P400 and S&P600 discontinued contacting their breakout lines, suggesting non-bullish desires at this time on a quick-term basis. The other indices continue threatening contact with their breakdown lines, which supports a bearish bias. Overall, this meanderer continues to pester desires of rampant bullish or bearish expressions. Please read the daily reports, as this element will offer greater insight in the next few weeks.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant), please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Refer to the daily reports for more information about the Quick-term Indicant.

For more information about the Quick-term Indicant, refer to last week’s daily reports.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

Note: This model is being replaced by the MTI-RYS model in a few weeks. Both have been reported on the past year and are somewhat redundant. The MTI-RYS model will be referred to as the Mid-term Indicant in the future.

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The eight major indices are up an average of 32.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 97.8-weeks ago. That annualizes to 17.3%. The Dow Utilities is the strongest bull. It is up 77.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on August 16, 2003. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 25.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on March 22, 2003. The Dow Composite is up 46.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on March 22, 2003. The Dow Transports Index is up 60.0% since the Mid-term Indicant bull signal on March 23, 2003.

Seven of the eight major indices are red bulls, which is up by one from last week. The Dow Transports remain as the only non-red-bull.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions – MTI-RYS – Ten U.S. Indices

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

In anticipation of the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracking of Exchange Traded Funds, this section will no longer be reported on in the next few weeks. That is because the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant will track the top thirty volume producing Exchange Traded Funds. These funds happen to cover the diversity of this section. It will also provide Indicant members greater money making opportunities by daily direct access to safer investments and with the protection of the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models.

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Although there were no new bull signals, twenty-one of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 127.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 129.7-weeks ago for an annualized gain of 51.0%, which is less than the 72.9% reported 125-weeks ago. International indices moved north the past two weeks. As stated the past 13-weeks, do not be surprised at increased bearish behavior in the next few weeks.

The lone bear is down 4.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear 35.0-weeks ago.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

In anticipation of the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracking of Exchange Traded Funds, this section will no longer be reported on in the next few weeks. That is because the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant will track the top thirty volume producing Exchange Traded Funds. These funds happen to cover the diversity of this section. It will also provide Indicant members greater money making opportunities by daily direct access to safer investments and with the protection of the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models.

September 04, 2005 Indicant.Net Weekly Update

Volume 09, Issue 01 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Dear Indicant Members:

This Week’s Report

Deep Bearish Seasonality Is Nearing – Part IV

As expected, August finished on a bearish note. The Dow and the NASDAQ fell by 1.5% in August. The S&P500 fell by 1.1%. The pattern of rotating monthly bullish/bearish cycles continued as expected, which is not surprising for a meandering market. There will be more about the monthly rotations later in this report.

Although the “meandering” theme is getting old, this meandering market continues to impress. The good news is this meanderer has not threatened your longer-term hold positions. Old themes can cause one to get bored or flinch. Those two characteristics is what damages most investors net worth. The Indicant may not be able to help with boredom, but it can help keep you from flinching. The idea here is to take what the market gives and avoid its pain. The market has been kind to your hold positions the past three years when it has had good reason to dish out some pain. The market’s resilience is indeed impressive with record high oil and gasoline prices and rising interest rates.

We are approaching the mid-point of the most bearish rolling quarter on a historical basis. The Dow’s August-October rolling quarter is historically extremely bearish. A $10,000 investment in the Dow since 1950 in the August-October rolling quarter is now worth only $5,664. A 1971 $10,000 NASDAQ investment has shriveled to $5,280 in the July-September rolling quarter. The market has trouble at this time of year resisting bearish influences.

The market has a much better chance of expressing bearish sentiment in the next few weeks since it is up slightly in the current July-September rolling quarter. Last week’s mild bullish behavior was impressive with record setting oil and gasoline prices. Although much of that was attributable to the Katrina hurricane, the longer-term unfavorable trend in energy prices continues to pester the stock market. Greenspan’s steady interest rate hikes also continue to pester the stock market.

Do not be surprised at increasing bearish behavior over the next few weeks. None of the attributes suggest a dynamic bear and none of the attributes support any meaningful bullish behavior. Keep your eye on the Indicant Volume Indicator. If it turns into a robust cycle concurrent to bearish expressions, it would be wise to unload your holdings. Although the stock market can climbs walls of worry, it never climbs during high inflation or high interest rates. Current trends suggest a high likelihood of that in the near future.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary

The Mid-term Indicant generated three buy signals and one sell signal for stocks and funds.

In addition to the sell signal, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 91-stocks and funds of the 320 tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 9.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 21.2-weeks ago.

There were 106-stocks and funds avoided at this time last year. The avoided stocks and funds one year ago were down an average of 27.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 44.4-weeks earlier. Two years ago, on September 6, 2003, the Mid-term Indicant was avoiding only 18-stocks and funds that were down an average of 8.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 13.5-weeks earlier.

In addition to the buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 225 of the 320 stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 106.9%. That annualizes to 60.7%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 225-stocks and funds for an average of 91.5-weeks.

One year ago, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 184-stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked at that time for an average of 58.3-weeks. They were up 75.3% (annualized at 67.1%). The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 264-stocks and funds of the 296 tracked two years ago on September 6, 2003. They were up by an average of 51.6% (annualized at 96.9%) since their respective buy signals an average of 27.7-weeks earlier.

Secular Market Blend

This section is a repeat from the last several months with a few modifications, reflecting recent secular influences. The current Mid-term Bull market and buying barrage in late 2002 followed the predicted market bottom in 2002. The mid-term presidential election year phenomenon was consistent with history. Even more impressive was how the market synchronized with near perfection to normal seasonality in 2002.

The Dow30 found bottom on October 9, 2002 at 7286.27. The NASDAQ found bottom on the same day at 1114.11. As earlier stated, the Indicant began its buying barrage in October – November 2002 just after the market bottomed from the severe 2000-2002 Bear Market. There were 239 buy signals between October 5, 2002 and November 9, 2002 out of the 296 stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant.

Some of you recall the Short-term Indicant Bear for the NASDAQ was the longest in history. It even exceeded the Dow’s 1929-1932 Short-term Indicant Bear in breadth and approached it in magnitude. The good news is that the NASDAQ’s decline did not lead to a depression, which is a clear indication of how little influence the tech stocks have on the economy. Remember, real economic wealth is delivered in only three ways - manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction. All other industries are merely transfer agents of wealth. The only positive political influence on the economy is to undo its prior damage.

The remainder of this section, Secular Market Blend, is repeated, in part, from the past several months, but it does not hurt to reread it each week. As time progresses and conditions change, there will be modifications to it to maintain a balanced frame of reference.

You will notice many of the mutual fund buy signals occurred in March 2003. Many of you recall how the market did not synchronize with the heart and soul of bullish seasonality from November 2002 through February 2003. After the asynchronous behavior in the November 2002 rolling third of the year, the market turned bullish in March 2003 and again did not synchronize with normal seasonality. The Mid-term Indicant continued signaling bull during bearish seasonality during most of 2003. The market continued moving north during that time, contrary to historical standards. As stated in most of 2004, bearish expressions on a Mid-term basis between May and October 2004 should not be surprising. That is exactly what occurred.

The year, 2004, was consistent with normal bearish seasonality. Unfortunately, bearish expressions started ahead of schedule in 2004. However, the bullish expressions, which solidified in October 2004, synchronized beautifully with historical standards with a bullish outburst. The Quick-term Indicant accurately revealed an early start to bullish seasonality in late 2004.

Bullish seasonality ended on April 30, 2005. The market remains firmly situated into bearish seasonality. The market continues to configure itself to support historical standards by expressing bearish behavior, although mildly. However, recent bullish spurts have pushed some indices up during this bearish seasonal period. That is expected to change in the upcoming weeks and reinforce the standards of bearish seasonality. As stated the last several weeks in this report, continued meandering behavior is expected to resume in August. That suggested August would be bearish. And that is exactly what happened. For example, the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ were down in August 2005.

Although not surprising, 2005 began with unfavorable performance to bullish seasonality standards. The Quick-term Indicant signaled bear in early January 2005. Bearish expressions followed. At first, these bearish expressions were mild, but 30-weeks ago, bearish behavior revealed greater aggression. However, that aggression was muted with several bullish spurts. Those bullish spurts were weak but possessed enough bullish steam to thwart increasing bearish behavior. However, residual components of the prior Quick-term Bull and the constitution of the current Mid-term Bull are exhausted from having to thwart bearish ambition.

The July bullish spurt propelled many stocks to catapult their bullish red curves. That is indeed non-bearish. On the contrary, this is not necessarily bullish. However, it does provide a forum for a relaxed view of your hold positions. Stocks and funds seldom endure deep bearish behavior while they reside above their respective bullish red curves. Also, the most recent bullish spurt shifted the Quick-term Indicant from a bearish bias to nearly neutral. Although, the Quick-term attributes still did not signal bull, the mild bearish bias is reason for continued relaxation with respect to your longer-term hold positions. However, the past four weeks have increased many of the Quick-term attributes to expand support for bearish influences.

All the Quick-term attributes remain biased with bearish tendencies even though the Mid-term Bull continues to demonstrate significant resistance to bearish ambition. As stated the past few weeks, there were some quick-term attributes shifting in support of even more bearish expressions. However, the bullish spurts have been strong enough to shift those attributes to neutrality. However, they are again shifting from neutrality to increased bearish bias.

The presidential post election year is, historically, the most bearish year on the four-year presidential election cycle. Like all things, there are exceptions to historical normalcy. As this year progresses, the various Indicant models will advise if 2005 is an exception or normal. So far, this year appears normal; that is bearish. The Quick-term and Short-term Indicant continue signaling bear, as they have been doing since early January 2005. The Mid-term and Long-term Indicant models continue to signal bull. The mid-term and long-term trends exerted their authority over the shorter cycles in the last three weeks of July. That was followed with bearish behavior in August 2005.

As previously stated, these bullish spurts and the uncharacteristic bullish May and July added continued life to the Mid-term Bulls. This has deferred massive selling that will unfold at the expiration of these Mid-term Bull markets. As stated the past few months, do not be surprised with increased bearish behavior over the next few weeks. Of course, you have noticed bearish dominance the past five weeks.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/History-Seasonal/HS0001.htm

Make certain you read the entire pages on the above link. You will see there are exceptions.

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant continues recommending a stop loss of 5% because of the Quick-term Bear. This stop loss was changed from 8% several month’s ago because of the expectation of increased bearish influence and at best, meandering behavior.

If you are up by 50% or more, you may find it advantageous to set your stop-loss at 15% from your current hold position. If you sold a stock on the stop loss and the Indicant continues to signal hold, do not buy the stock unless the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull.

Use a 10% trailing stop loss or the yellow or green values you will find on the tables. If your stock or fund is above the bearish yellow curve and below the green curve, set your stop loss equal to the greater of the yellow curve and the trailing stop loss. If your stock or fund is above the green curve, set your stop loss at no less the value of the green curve or 10% trailing, whichever is greater. If your stock or fund is above the red curve and you bought at the Mid-term Buy signal, you should use the 10% trailing stop loss. If you are up by triple digit amounts and enjoy your ownership of the stock or fund, then use a 20% trailing stop loss or the slow moving blue curve price. If you really enjoy holding the stock, keep a close eye on the management. Dilettante managers have a way of worming into the business. Watch closely for cronyism and lazy-hazy management dialog. Keep your eye on lavish spending and excessive concerns about social issues. Those types are more interested in burning your money for their pleasures, as opposed to making you money. High performing companies remain focused on honoring the investments made by their shareholders.

In a few instances, you will see a hold signal for a stock or fund that is down from its buy signal or below one of the above conditions for selling. If you are more of a trader than an investor, feel free to buy stocks and funds with those “bearish” attributes. They are configured for a possible rebound, while at the same time, it is important to set the stop losses mentioned in this report. Use the Quick-term Indicant as a guide in your decision-making processes. If the stock price is falling in a Quick-term Bear market, it is not advisable to buy.

Do not short on stocks if they are up from an avoid signal. Stocks go up more often than they go down. Stocks have a tendency to march to their own drumbeat when rising. Some stocks rise and continue to rise in the most severe of bear markets. Short selling opens up an opportunity for the snakes on Wall Street to take everything you own. They can cause a stock to rise at their whim and without any regard to fundamental reason. It usually does not make sense to bet against the sweat and toil of hard-working people. There are some instances where stocks rise during bear markets due to legitimate fundamental reasons. If the market emulates a 1970’s configuration, most stocks will plummet, but energy related stocks will skyrocket. It is unusual that energy has been skyrocketing the past three years, of which two of those years enjoyed bullish market behavior. The coexistence of a bullish energy sector and general equities does not make much fundamental sense, but the underlying economic fundamentals have supported this phenomenon. There is good reason to expect an abandonment of this phenomenon with record setting oil prices and rising interest rates.

Stock and Fund Update

Click the following link to see sorted performance of stocks and funds with hold/avoid signals. In the past, we included them in this email message but now display them on the website. This is available to the public, while the specific buy and sell transactions are limited to members only.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Performance/Top-Bot.htm

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/Buy-Sell%20Summary%20This%20Week.htm

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time.

All update information can be found from a single page at Indicant.Net. Click the below link to that page. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Divergence versus Convergence

There was mild bullish convergence last week after several weeks of bearish convergence. One week’s data point is not a trend or cycle. This attribute has been shifty since early 2004 when the meandering market began.

As stated the past 16-weeks, the Mid-term Bull still has some fight in it. However, it continues expending too much energy in a defensive posture. There is not enough bullish convergence to ignite strong bullish behavior by the major indices.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

The Canadian dollar continues expressing profound strength in advance of the tremendous oil imports from Canada to the U.S. Keep in mind there is more Athabasca tarsand oil than in all of the Middle East. Contemporary oil prices are significantly higher than recovery cost per barrel. Capital investments into extracting tar sand oil continue to rise. The Canadian dollar will continue to strengthen in the face of rising exports to the U.S. and around the world for this popular commodity.

As stated the past twelve weeks, there remains no cyclical shift in direction on the U.S. Dollars recent strengthening. Cyclically, it is still weak, but the cyclical shift in foreign currencies expresses increasing potential for a new trend in the greenbacks strengthening (with the exception of the Canadian dollar). The continued rise in interest rates, of which no end is in sight, supports continuing strength in the U.S. Dollar.

This paragraph will remain unchanged until such time conditions change. Rising interest rates tend to strengthen the dollar. That will damage export business and eventually hurt the U.S. manufacturing economy. This is consistent with historical “political management” of the U.S. economy. In other words, the political community understands power retention is a function of economic health on Election Day. After presidential elections, there is no immediate concern for economic health. That is the case right now. That sort of thing is typically more pronounced in a lame duck term, which is underway.

Commodity prices continue their bullish commitment from already stratospheric levels. This recent movement is dynamic. As stated the last several weeks, the trend in commodity prices will continue north as long as oil prices continue in that direction. The Mid-term Indicant Bull’s resilience in the face of this inflationary threat is indeed impressive. It is only a matter of time before this unrelenting pricing pressure on commodities produces unacceptable inflationary behavior.

This paragraph remains unchanged from the past 38-weeks with a few modifications. Interest rates continue their rise, but still from historically low levels. The stock market is now obviously being bothered by these unfavorable relationships. The bearish bias by the Quick-term Indicant may be an early indication of the market’s intolerance to these unfavorable trends. There is some point where equities will not like the “position” of interest rates if Greenspan continues his northward trek. It is not uncommon to over-cool the economy in post election years, which is now underway.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Econ.htm

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 75.2% one-hundred and sixty-seven weeks ago since the MTI buy signal in April 2001. One-hundred and sixty weeks ago, it closed up 30.1%. Last week it closed up 181.5%, which is higher than the 75.9% reported 111-weeks ago. The current annualized growth rate since the April 13, 2001 buy signal is 40.8%, which is higher than 23.1% reported 111-weeks ago. After falling sharply eleven weeks ago, it bounced north the past ten weeks of the past eleven weeks.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28, is up 5.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy last week. That annualizes to 281.5%, which is not an impossible performance level if oil prices continue to mount. This fund should do well in the event this market turns into a 1970’s type of market.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, which is isolated in the energy sector, is up 253.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2002. It is annualizing at 81.9%. Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, is up 141.6% (annualized at 58.3%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on April 5, 2003. Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, is up 100.4% (annualized at 56.8%) since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, is up 113.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003. It is annualized at 54.5%.

These funds should do well even if the market turns extremely bearish. Continue to hold them.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull for the Gold/Silver Index is up 5.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on August 26, 2005.

Quick-term and Short-term Indicant Update

The Quick-term Indicant Bear that was born on January 4, 2005 has now survived for 34-weeks. As stated the past several weeks, that is a long period of survival spanning four months of the six months of bullish seasonality. The market is now mired inside bearish seasonality. The market entered into deep bearish seasonality this past week. Nothing has changed in the past few weeks. Do not be surprised at increased bearish activity in the next few weeks. The impending bearishness will most likely be mild. Expect more quick-term bearishness.

The indices continue determining any potential comfort zones around bullish red. As stated the past 15-weeks, such comfort around their respective bullish red curves should not be expected. Fifteen weeks ago all eight indices were above bullish red. Fourteen weeks ago, six were above bullish red. Thirteen weeks ago, only three were above bullish red. Seven weeks ago, three were above bullish red and three were below bearish yellow. Five weeks ago, all eight were above bullish red. Two weeks ago only one index remains above the bullish red curve. Mild bullish behavior last week pushed five of the indices back above their respective bullish red curves. As stated last week, the Quick-term is now configuring into supporting increased bearish bias. Nothing is different.

The eight major indices are up by an average of 3.1% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bear on January 4, 2005. Expect the Quick-term Indicant to be accurate with overall bearish performance by mid September when the market should be down from the January 4, 2005 bear signal. That is only two weeks from now.

Read the daily emails for more about the Quick-term Indicant. It is still a Quick-term Bear.

Please review the daily reports for more details regarding the Quick-term Indicant.

To view the Quick-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QT.htm

As stated the past two weeks, the Indicant Volume Indicator has resumed a lethargic pattern. That configuration does not support dynamic bearish behavior, even though the Quick-term Indicant remains biased in favor of bearish expressions. Keep your eye on this indicator as it from time to time obviates the market’s mid-term and quick-term intentions.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/IVI.htm

The Dow is down 0.2% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bear on January 20, 2005. The NASDAQ is up 3.0% since the Short-term Indicant signaled bear on January 11, 2005. Both indices are Short-term Bears.

To view the Short-term Indicant charts, please click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI.htm

A link to the Dow’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20DJIA1995-2002.htm

A link to the NASDAQ’s Short-term Indicant table is as follows:

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Tours/STI%20Tour/ST-Table%20NAS1995-2002.htm

Perspectives

Nothing has changed in the past several weeks. Six of the eight major indices continue to threaten contact with their respective breakdown lines. Contact with them will support increased bearish behavior. As stated two weeks ago, the S&P400 and S&P600 discontinued contacting their breakout lines, suggesting non-bullish desires at this time on a quick-term basis. The other indices continue threatening contact with their breakdown lines, which supports a bearish bias. Overall, this meanderer continues to pester desires of rampant bullish or bearish expressions. Please read the daily reports, as this element will offer greater insight in the next few weeks.

To view the Perspective Charts (Quick-term Indicant), please click the following.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/QTP.htm

Refer to the daily reports for more information about the Quick-term Indicant.

For more information about the Quick-term Indicant, refer to last week’s daily reports.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Major U.S. Market Indices

Note: This model is being replaced by the MTI-RYS model in a few weeks. Both have been reported on the past year and are somewhat redundant. The MTI-RYS model will be referred to as the Mid-term Indicant in the future.

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The eight major indices are up an average of 31.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 96.8-weeks ago. That annualizes to 16.5%. The Dow Utilities is the strongest bull. It is up 74.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on August 16, 2003. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 22.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on March 22, 2003. The Dow Composite is up 45.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on March 22, 2003. The Dow Transports Index is up 61.4% since the Mid-term Indicant bull signal on March 23, 2003.

Six of the eight major indices are red bull, which is up by two from last week.

To view Mid-term Indicant charts for U.S. Market Indices, please click the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI-Mkts-US.htm

Mid-term Indicant Positions – MTI-RYS – Ten U.S. Indices

Mid-term Indicant Positions - International Markets

In anticipation of the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracking of Exchange Traded Funds, this section will no longer be reported on in the next few weeks. That is because the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant will track the top thirty volume producing Exchange Traded Funds. These funds happen to cover the diversity of this section. It will also provide Indicant members greater money making opportunities by daily direct access to safer investments and with the protection of the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models.

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

Although there were no new bull signals, twenty-one of the twenty-two foreign indexes tracked by the Indicant are Mid-term Bulls. They are up an average of 124.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull an average of 128.7-weeks ago for an annualized gain of 50.4%, which is less than the 72.9% reported 124-weeks ago. International indices moved slightly north last week. As stated the past twelve weeks, do not be surprised at increased bearish behavior in the next few weeks.

The lone bear is down 4.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear 34.0-weeks ago.  

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20MTI%20Intl%20Mkts.htm

In anticipation of the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant tracking of Exchange Traded Funds, this section will no longer be reported on in the next few weeks. That is because the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant will track the top thirty volume producing Exchange Traded Funds. These funds happen to cover the diversity of this section. It will also provide Indicant members greater money making opportunities by daily direct access to safer investments and with the protection of the Quick-term and Short-term Indicant models.

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