Sep 09 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Sep 27, 2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 9, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Stock Market Bull Disgruntled with One More Senator

Although the stock market does a fair job of anticipating economic activity, it tends to react on a real time basis to political activity. Increased political activity tends to invite the bear to be more demonstrative. The state of Massachusetts modified their state laws and hurriedly filled the U.S. Senate vacancy due to the death of the late Senator Edward Kennedy. Although the market knew this was going to happen, its expressed disappointment coincided with the announcement this past week.

Even with the addition of one more senator, there remains sufficient political discord to minimize significant bearish threats on the immediate horizon. There was no dynamic bearish response, but with the news of Senator Kennedy’s replacement, the market reacted with mild bearishness.

In the construction of an experimental design of stock market behavior, one can identify well over ten million independent variables that may or may not have influence on the stock market’s direction. To construct the ultimate model, one would have to identify of the sequence of those ten million plus independent variables. Current technology does not have the capacity to handle that model. With that, one could argue the bear was not aroused by the announcement of one more senator since that is only one independent variable.

However, when constructing a simple effect and cause statement, where cause is theory and effect is fact, the stock market moved south on the announcement of Senator Kennedy’s replacement. Both events occurred simultaneously and since they actually occurred, one can equally argue the headline to this article is armed with a couple of inarguable facts.

Most in the media propel situations and results with simple if-then statements. They tend to construct views in a one-dimensional space and it is quite disgusting to watch them. The mute button is more often than not. One has to wonder if they are actually getting paid for their nonsensical views. So, one can argue that the headline is a simple retaliation sort of thing along one-dimensional space.

The political industry is one that makes no money, but has access to processing tremendous amounts of money. The political industry serves many purposes, some of which are good ones. For example, it is good that one group of politicians disagree with another group. As one thinks deeply about that, one can conclude that is only good purpose in the political industry.

Some may claim that there is no political industry. The term, industry, implies an identification of moneymaking organizations. There is a banking industry. Banks do not make real money. All they do is process it and openly keep a few shackles for themselves for each transaction. For this very simple service, they get to report profits. Sometimes real banker talent is displayed and they actually lose money on this simple process and have to report their losses. When they do this, politicians take your money from you and give it to them so that you can have access to your money. There is probably a more suitable word for this process than ridiculous, but most will understand that.

The political industry and the banking industry shared a common theme several months ago. They justified excessive bonuses to banking executives so the industry could retain “the talent.” The two industries shared a common message of “importance” to retaining talent. A few of us can see the fraud that politicians were simply protecting their sources of campaign funds and fun times. Rest assured the talent is minimal.

Since the political industry does not make money, it can be coined as an industry that “takes money.” Those non-productive souls comprising that industry enjoy many possessions, such as jet air travel, fancy dinners, dinner dates from Washington D.C. to New York and whatnot. So, it is painfully obvious that an industry made up of non-producers that enjoys some of the finest possessions one could have must be in the business of taking. The capital markets frown on “taking.” There is no wealth building in taking. It is a depressant to the idea of being productive. All of that depresses the bull and arouses the bear.

So, one can see that the bad purpose of the political industry is to convey its importance to society. The state of Massachusetts played right along with the “importance” scheme.

An unknown portion of the U.S. population believes the need to expedite the replacement senator is unimportant. The political industry behaves in a way to increase the numbers of people believing the replacement is important.

Hopefully, the majority of the U.S. population can reduce this behavior, expressed by the political industry, to ridiculous. If this is proven in the mid-term elections of 2010, rest assured the bull will express its glory. If not, the bear will express its glory. Between now and then is a crap shoot. However, right now, and even with all these threats from the political industry, the Near-term Bull, Quick-term, Mid-term, and Long-term Bull remain dominant; a bit tired and disgruntled, but dominant.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.

In addition to the buy signal, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 187 of the 333-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 20.8%. That annualizes to 54.4%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 187-stocks and funds for an average of 19.9-weeks.

Although there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 129-stocks and funds of 333- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 39.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 77.6-weeks ago.

Stocks and funds, no longer traded, are identified with the letters, NLT. We used to use the last signal at the time of the last trade to maintain consistencies in the report card. However, we expect several corporations to fail or merge in the coming months and years. Marking such failures with the letters, NLT, will not disrupt the report card. We can then more quickly identify replacements for those that have failed or merged into another company. The NLT companies are excluded from the report card summaries at the time of being classified as NLT. However, the report card’s historical record is not adjusted. It always reflects the recommendations and performance as it stood at the time of said performance and recommendations.

Dilettante run companies, such as GM, Eastman, and others will continue to be tracked as long as they are traded. We will move them from their former classifications, such as the Dow30, NAS100, etc., to the Indicant Select Stocks category. In a few instances, where there is little hope for a company to rebound, we will simply remove them from our tracking. This is difficult to do, as companies nearing the end, from time to time, are fortunate enough to hire a talented manager. Although rare, it does happen, and when it does, you would want to know about it. It is a lot easier fixing an existing company than starting one from scratch.

Unfortunately, highly talented managers are generally unemployable by existing companies. If existing companies were more efficient at filtering/firing dilettantes, who are despised by the talented, then they would have a better chance at attracting talent.

One year ago, on Sep 26, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 98-stocks and funds out of 345 tracked for an average of 149.8-weeks. They were up by an average of 156.9% (annualized at 54.5%). There were 242-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 20.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 25.6-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 253-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Sep 27, 2007. They were up by an average of 156.4% (annualized at 64.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 125.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 62-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 9.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 23.0-weeks earlier.

There were 261-stocks and funds with hold signals on Sep 22, 2006 since their buy signals an average of 75.3-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 96.8% (annualized at 66.9%). There were 37-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 15.1% from their respective sell signals an average of 19.6-weeks earlier.

On Sep 23, 2005, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 225-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 104.5% (annualized at 58.7%) since their buy signals an average of 92.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 86-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 10.3% since their sell signals an average of 23.3-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Sep 25, 2004, there were 205-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 69.3% (annualized at 64.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 56.3-weeks earlier. There were 90-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 28.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 47.0-weeks earlier.

On Sep 27, 2003, there were 219-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 51.8%, annualizing at 89.6%, since the buy signals an average of 30.4-weeks earlier. There were 16-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 25.0% since their sell signals an average of 30.4-weeks earlier.

There were 61-stocks and funds with hold signals on Sep 27, 2002. They were up 17.4%, since their buy signals 20.0-weeks earlier. They were annualizing at 45.3%. The 213-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 22.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 9.6-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. The left swinging pendulum may be under arrest right now with Blue Dog democrats and Congressional disarray.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of the bear market. So, do not be surprised at increased buying and selling in the next several weeks. Some signals will be quickly reversed if their technical data deteriorates. Fluttering is common before a stock begins its movement toward a long period of directional intensity. The key is to differentiate stock market indecisiveness from impending bearish aggression.

All updated information can be accessed from the following link. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

The stock market remains a bit too hot and simply cooling off. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality begins in a few weeks, when deep bearish seasonality expires. The market was bullish during the early part of deep bearish seasonality, which should trigger some offsetting bearishness. This is one reason there was only one buy signal this weekend.

Another reason there was only one buy signal was the stock market’s bearishness on the announcement of Senator Kennedy’s replacement.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% due to the Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant signaling bullish bias while the Mid-term Indicant is also shifting toward that bias.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses.

Most of the longer-term signals of stocks and funds continue with “avoid” signals, but a few are still holding. The risk of continued holding, for the likes of Apple, remains relaxed.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models participate in bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 32.6% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 87.7% and the S&P500 is up 34.5% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 84.3% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming.

Interestingly, most of the major indices last cyclical bottom occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its bottom on November 20, 2008. The resilience of the current Near-term Bull cycle suggests it may indeed have enough sustainability to permanently mark a major cyclical bottom. In other words, the next Near-term Bear cycle may not fall below the March 9, 2009 bottoming. Even with that, statistics support 100% accuracy in the Reverse Tangential Projections will occur at some future point.

The Dow is down 31.8% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 26.9% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is down 29.3% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking, like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

There is one major point here. If the Near-term Indicant is signaling avoid, all short-term traders should be avoiding, in spite of the potential optimism of not finding a new bottom in the next bear cycle. The longer-term trader should continue patiently awaiting buying clearance from the Mid-term Indicant. There have been quite a few of them the past few weeks. Older and strategic longer-term traders are still up by triple digits from the 1991 bull signal by the Long-term Indicant.

However, if inflation manifests, triple digit gains over a twenty-year period may not be enough. Government spending without paralleled support from the only three-wealth building economic sectors (manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction), inflation is expected to manifest and with gusto. If it does not, economic books will be rewritten. (The Blue Dog democrats may help prevent this unfavorable scenario for the time being).

Another consideration is deflation, but with lower probabilities. Consumer spending, which has been the predominant economic force may in fact not return to previous levels. A significant amount of consumer spending was funded from over-priced real estate. The economy and stock market were confronted by phony wealth that was not delivered from the three wealth building pillars; manufacturing, agriculture, and extraction. Wealth can only be produced; not taken.

The NASDAQ is down 58.6% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 31.6% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 17.6% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. (This remains even with the immediate Blue Dog potential).

As socialism increases, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050. Even that depends on resurgence in entrepreneurialism and related capitalism. Politicians screwed up the economy and the majority apparently believes their proposed fixes, which was not even read by the lawmakers. They are now attempting to impose more constraints on business expansion and thus the continuation of wealth destruction should not be surprising. Politicians have deemed obsolete the normal efficiencies of capitalistic cleansing of the incompetent. That will wear down the capital markets as politicians continue their neurotic desires to expand their influence and controls. Those leeches will eventually kill their host, but like all leeches, they continue on sucking away.

The good news is the politicians in Washington D.C. have reduced their power by weakening their already weak constituents. International competitiveness will eventually erode U.S. political power and influence. With that, capitalists around the world will continue providing products of appeal, while politicians continue exuding irrelevant commentary. Let’s just hope that products of appeal is not weaponry, alone. Also, Americans may be too poor to buy products of appeal.

The Dow is up 10.1% so far this year. The NASDAQ is up 32.6% and the S&P500 is up by 15.6%. Keep in mind the post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since 1832. The stock market is not conforming to this historical standard at this time, but will in the event socialism becomes legislated.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 39.2% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. So far, the NASDAQ is incongruent with this post election year.

The NASDAQ was down by 37.3% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which is consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 36.1%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 6.2% and finished up by 8.6% for that year, which was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down by 2.7% in 2005’s post election year, which maintained congruency to the historical standards of losses. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. 2005 finished up by a mere 1.4%, which was an excellent year based on post election year historical standards of bearishness.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 2.0% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 11.1% at this time in 2007 and finished that year in positive territory by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. It was down 17.6% at this time last year. The NASDAQ finished down by 40.5% in 2008. That was contrarian performance to historical election year bullishness and the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

So far, this presidential post election year is performing inconsistently with historical standards. It continues to be bullish in the face of historical bearishness. Last year’s inconsistency is somewhat influential, as two strong back-to-back inconsistencies are rare. The capital markets understand socio-political influences are predominant in the first year of most incoming administrations and thus generally non-bullish with an actual demonstration of outright bearishness in presidential post election year. As the popularity of Congress and the U.S. President wane, the stock market senses a reduction in their power. That is bullish.

Politicians offer nothing pertinent to the quality of life, including health or wealth. They “talk about it” but just one RN offers more toward health and one good entrepreneur offers more toward wealth than the collection of all politicians, kings, queens, and dictators since the beginning of time. Those “control freaks” only talk and rob folks of their wealth and health.

The Short-term Indicant continues signaling bull in spite of the market’s historical standards and current incongruence to those standards.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Short-term rates continue configuring at a cyclical minimum. Normally, that would threaten the bull, but they are so low the immediate prognosis borders minutia. In essence, interest rate levels are irrelevant to the stock market at this time.

As stated thirteen weeks ago, mortgage rates continue moving north and aggressively so, but most likely an aberration. As anticipated, they softened the past six weeks. Mortgage rates are vacillating in a neutral zone.

As stated the past several weeks, you can see some early warning signs of impending inflation. Although oil prices have stabilized the past few weeks, they have not fallen in the face of projected declining demand. Although oil prices have been erratic with mild bullish bias the past few weeks, the trend remains bullish. OPEC will continue instituting supply reductions. This time around, there is little likelihood of cheating OPEC members. They want prices to stabilize at $80 per barrel. The Saudi King concurs. Over the years, we have learned the Saudi King rules when it comes to oil prices.

Demand for fuel will not subside with increasing socialism, but the rate of consumption will be muted with a decline in capitalistic opportunities. OPEC will regulate supply to that muted demand. The socialistic elite will continue living in a life of comfort, while they regulate discomfort for the masses. Domestic exploration and drilling will become more difficult with ever-increasing laws and regulations.

A few weeks ago, commodities elevated into the neutral zone from their bullish mini-cycle. Bearish yellow is attempting a shift to the north. That should incite a period of indecisiveness, which is occurring now. Improving economic conditions and the potential for inflation suggests commodities are a good long-term investment.

The Near-term Indicant is no longer observing concerns regarding gold. As stated for several months, it remains too risky to sell on a Quick-term basis, but there will be no hesitation in selling if prices fall below the QTI bearish yellow curve. Gold is again configuring with solid bullishness. Gold continues hovering around $1,000, but softened this week on a strong dollar.

As stated 52-weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental. You will see that prognosis continuing in spite of recent bullish expressions. This cycle should endure a double dip.

The above and below paragraph may become obsolete, based on Blue Dog Democrats upsetting the assumed control of Congress by socialists, communists, and creeps. If they back down and join the evil ones, then the paragraphs remain in tact.

The question remains, is the public resistance to healthcare reform really from the grassroots? If so and if its political influence results in cessation of the rampant stupidity in Washington D.C., the bull will find that too favorable to acquiesce to the bear on the immediate horizon. Although healthcare reform is garnishing most of the attention, cap and trade legislation will depress corporate profits, depress capitalistic adventurism, and thus will eventually depress the stock market.

As stated 48-weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.” The bear has been passive since early March, but it still has plenty of time to demonstrate its reflection of a souring culture. The Blue Dogs have upset this line of thinking and we will know more when Congressional behavior is demonstrated over the next few quarters.

As stated the past four weeks, on a positive note, it appears enough of the populace are influencing their political representatives to slow the progress of stupidity. If this happens, then bearish expectations of great magnitude will be muted.

The bear has been too passive. The bull has expressed behavior that correlates with the declining popularity of President Barack Obama and Congress. The market is sensing an increasing possibility that social programs will be delayed. That is bullish in the capital markets.

Rising Near-term Indicant Green and Blue curves with bullish Vector Pressure and QTI Red Bulls offers pronounced protection against the bear. The bull is being threatened again with the return of Congress. Vector Pressure started shifting to the south four weeks ago, but still remains high enough to prevent the bear from dominating.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 4.0% since that sell signal. It has been bearish in 18-of the last 38-weeks. It has been bullish in 15-of the last 24-weeks but has not yet qualified for a Mid-term Indicant buy signal. Getting close, though.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is down 3.6% since then.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 6.6%, annualizing at 42.7% since its buy signal on July 31, 2009.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy last weekend and it is down 4.1% since that buy signal. It has been bullish in 19-of the last 29-weeks, but bearish in nine of the last 15-weeks.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 29.5% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 0.6% since its buy signal on Sep 11, 2009.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Aug 3, 2009. It is up 3.2% since then, annualizing at 21.5%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 20.3% since that buy signal, annualizing at 25.3%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 28.2%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009. It is up 8.1% since the Near-term buy signal, annualizing at 19.0%. Gold and oil are bullishly more aggressive after six months of flat behavior.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on July 31, 2009. The ten major indices are up by an average of 5.6% since that bull signal.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $27,759,395. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,470,438 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $135,858. That beats buy and hold’s $102,300 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $190,543. That beats buy and hold’s $72,501 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1787.8%, 32.8%, and 162.8%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid the bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. If the market remains bullish during this time, we’ll eat crow. It needs bears to outperform.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 44.2% since then. It remains too risky to buy since the Near-term Indicant Bull continues resisting bearish assaults. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, current technical indicators are advising to avoid this fund until the Near-term bullish cycle expires. However, this Near-term Bull is turning into a thoroughbred and will not expire without a battle.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 233.9% (annualized at 13.0%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 934-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning. However, the Long-term Indicant is getting very close to signaling bear. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below. You will notice long-term projections are bearish.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is imbedded in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Overall configurations continue suggesting the bear cannot dominate at this time. Some indications of bullish fatigue continue with their assertions. Yesterday’s naming of Senator Kennedy’s replacement was bearish. The head count of sixty democratic senators is of obvious concern by the bear.

The Near-term Bull is 29-weeks old. The average Near-term life cycles approximate 10-14-weeks. This does not mean they are always followed by a reversal cycle. Extended inflections can occur for several days or even weeks ahead of a renewed Near-term bull or bear cycle. This bull demonstrated dynamic responses to the bear’s influence in mid-July. If the bear does not demonstrate equal or greater magnitude in responses, this Near-term Bull will delay its expiration. So far, the bear has been silent to bullish expressions. Current configurations are offering very little encouragement to the bear at this time.

Bullishness is increasingly fundamental. Alternative investments, such as CD’s, money markets, etc. cannot earn enough to exceed even the mildest of inflation. Interest rates should remain low until inflation gets out of hand. Also, Congress is stalemated, which is bullish, but threatened last Thursday with Senator Kennedy’s announced replacement. However, a stalemated Congress and low interest rates remain as two powerful fundamentals favoring continued bullishness.

Quick-term Red Bulls are not to be argued with. Until Quick-term Red Bulls expire, this bull should be considered a thoroughbred, which is increasingly obvious. This is supported on a near-term basis as Near-term Blue Bulls continue in their support. The Near-term Blue Bulls are in a bit of trouble, but nowhere near being overcome by Near-term Bears.

As stated last week, do not be surprised at continuing non-bullishness in the next few days. However, there remains no significant bearish threat on the immediate horizon. The bull will most likely rest until Congressional recess and then resume dynamic behavior as long as Congress is stalled.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

Contrarian VIX is the lone Near-term Bear. It is up 9.1% since the bear signal 2.1-weeks ago. Most of that gain occurred in the past two days.

The remaining eleven major indices are up by an average of 18.9%, annualizing at 61.3%, since the NTI signaled bull an average of 16.0-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 12.9%, annualizing at 43.9%, since their bull signals an average of 15.1-weeks ago.

The lone bear, VIX, is down 28.4% since its bear signal 23.1-weeks ago. It will not receive a Quick-term Bull signal until it crosses above bearish yellow curve.

On-going attribute watch for major indices: Biases are dated at the time of observation. The next sentence advises of conditions and indicators each day, unless they are also dated.

QTI Red Bull Status-Jul 27, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven of 11-non-contrarian indices are red bulls.

QTI Yellow Bear Status-Jul 23, 2009-Non-bearish bias. There are no non-contrarian yellow bears. VIX is a yellow bear.

-NTI Blue Bull Status-Sep24, 2009-Weak bullish bias. Only two of 11-non-contrarian indices are blue bulls. Lost six this Thursday and Friday.

-NTI Green Bear Status-Sep 2, 2009-Non-bearish bias. All 11-major non-contrarian indices are above bearish green and thus non-bearish. The VIX threat, expiring Sep 11, 2009, is again emerging. It will be interesting is Vector Pressure acts as a ceiling to any of its bullish ambition.

-NTI Blue Bull Direction-Jul 22, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven of eleven non-contrarians are directionally bullish. Sep 21, 2009-VIX Blue started elevating, which is mildly threatening to the overall bullish stock market.

-NTI Green Bear Direction – Jul 30, 2009-Non-bearish bias. Eleven of eleven non-contrarian are directionally non-bearish. VIX remains in decline but teetering on rebounding.

-STI Force Vector Position- Sep 11, 2009-Neutral bias. None are in bullish domains and only one above Vector Pressure.

-STI Force Vector Direction – Sep 23, 2009-Mild Bearish Bias. Sep 24, 2009-The lazy decline shifted a bit more sharply last Thursday; most likely due to a U.S. Congressional replacement to Senator Kennedy.

-Vector Pressure Position- Jul 23, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven of 11-non-contrarian in bullish domains and thus very supportive of the bull. Although bull is tiring, its strength continues to exceed that of the bear’s.

-Vector Pressure Direction- Sep 14, 2009-Bullish bias. Only three of eleven non-contrarian moving north. Six shifted direction to the south the past two days.

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes

QTI-Bullish Red Curve-Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in bullish trend.

QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve-Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend

NTI-Bullish Blue Curve- Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in bullish trend; Contrarian VIX NTI Blue shifted back to the north this past Thursday.

NTI-Bearish Green Curve- Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in bullish trend.

STI-Vector Pressure-Bullish unanimity no longer exists with only three of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend.

-Near-term Directional Intensity - Jul 30, 2009-Bullish unanimity remains with all NTI Bullish Blue and Bearish Green rising. However, nine Blue Bulls have been lost the past five days, threatening this bullish attribute a bit.

-Tangential Protection – Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines were constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, S&P400, and S&P600. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.

-Reverse Tangential Bearish Detection - Although the current Near-term Bull has not yet expired, the following observations still holds true. The timing is unknown, but there is 100% confidence the indices and ETF’s will fall to those prices noted in the below link. (Note: You should not worry about this or consider this until you see the indices and ETF’s fall below the various attributes, such as the bearish yellow or green curves. The market can climb to significant magnitudes before the execution of this phenomenon).

-Political Climate – Congress in session is bearish, but technical data is overriding at this point. Strong bullishness not likely to return until the next Congressional recess. Force Vectors dipped deeply to the south when Senator Kennedy’s replacement was announced this past Thursday. The stock market does not find sixty Democratic Senators bullish. Fifty-nine was tolerable, but sixty is a bit more threatening to the bull.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in this table on the website, as opposed to listing here. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds still favor later this year or early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. There is one chart containing both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors. Those latter two will be explained as they evolve.

As stated for several weeks, the NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators are no longer configuring with potential robustness. Current configurations suggest limited support for bullish or bearish behavior. As stated the past several days, this favors the prevailing direction, which is bullish. Mild bearishness the past few days is indicative of a tiring and resting bull, as opposed to bearish assaults.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Sep 25, 2009-Fri-Nothing different. There is no dynamic bearish threat. Sep 24, 2009-Thu-Same as last Mon. Sep 23, 2009-Wed-Same as the past two days. Sep 22, 2009-Tue-Same as yesterday. Sep 21, 2009-Mon-Near-term and Quick-term Bull continue without any serious threats. As previously stated, the bull is tiring and probably weary of the Congressional session now underway. Do not be surprised at limited dynamic behavior until the next Congressional recess.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 14.7%, annualizing at 57.2%, since their buy signals an average of 13.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding one ETF; contrarian QID. It is down 14.7% since its sell signal 9.1-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 17.7% since their buy signals an average of 17.0-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 54.2%. Although there were no sell signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 48.0% since its sell signal on Mar 26, 2009.

Quick-term Red Bulls significantly reduce the threat of dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. As long as there are Quick-term Red Bulls, one does not have to worry about bearish dominance. Breadth protection improved from only 5-red bulls 53-trading days ago to 30-red bulls today. This is a significant non-bearish configuration with respect to disallowing dynamic behavior on the immediate horizon.

Vector Pressure in bullish domains is also a bear depressant. There are 22-ETF’s with this bullish and non-bearish configuration. There remains no dynamic bearish threat with sustainable duration at this time.

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

Four-NTI Blue Bulls is now a minority. No longer a solid bullish attribute. 17-Blue Bulls lost on Sep 24, 2009 and six lost on Sep 25, 2009.

30-NTI Blue Curves are sloping north and thus remain supportive of the NTI Bull. None have collapsed.

30-NTI Green Curves are still sloping north, expressing support for continued non-bearishness.

There are no Near-term Green Bears other that QID.

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

30-QTI Red Bulls represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term bullishness.

29-QTI Bullish Red Curves are sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

30-QTI Non-yellow Bears represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness.

30-QTI Bearish yellow curves are sloping north, highlighting solid non-bearishness.

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

Only one Force Vector is in bullish domains, no longer providing maximal bullish support. Twenty dropped out of bullish domains last Thursday and the rest of them on Friday. The only Force Vector in bullish domains is contrarian TLT. However, this is not supportive of the bear. Just not a strong bullish support.

22-Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains with majority supporting bullish bias.

15-Vector Pressures are moving in a bullish direction with majority support of the bull, but barely.

Sep 25, 2009-Fri-Bull continues resting, as opposed to a major assault by the bear.

Sep 24, 2009-Thu-Several NTI Blue Bulls retreated today and Force Vectors fell from bullish domains. As previously stated, the bull is tired. Also, the naming of a replacement to Senator Kennedy was bearish.

Sep 23, 2009-Wed-Same as yesterday. Bull is tired and weary of Congress but no serious bearish threat can be sustainable at this time.

Sep 22, 2009-Tue-Solid non-bearish support continues. Lazy Force Vectors are somewhat bullish.

Sep 21, 2009-Mon-Solid non-bearish support continues. Although it would not be surprising to see the bull remain lazy and even give a little ground to the bear over the next few days, the bull remains solidly dominant.

Click here to get a quick overview of the regular mutual funds as they stood several months ago. As you can see, many of them are down by double digit percentage points since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell in late 2007 and in early 2008. The Mid-term Indicant is updated each weekend with a link to the member’s section. Members can click this sentence to get a more recent update. You will notice buy signals the past few weeks for the first time in several months.

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on Jul 23, 2009. It is down 12.5% since that sell signal. The Near-term Indicant is no longer on the verge of signaling buy for this ETF.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 48.0% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $34.43 and still falling. The rate of yellow descent is accelerating.

ETF#03-Natural Resources - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 3.2% since those buy signals, annualizing at 21.5%. This fund had been struggling, but bullish in seven of the last thirteen days. It was solidly bearish for the third consecutive day due to strength in the U.S. dollar.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 20.3% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 25.3%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $87.69 and still rising.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 8.1% since then, annualizing at 20.5%.

It is a QTI Red Bull and a NTI Blue Bull. That suggests a real safe holding position in spite of today’s bearish behavior.

Gold remains fundamentally sound for long-term holding and a technical measure of authenticity in that assessment is in its bearish yellow curve. If it crosses below bearish yellow, you will not want to be holding. The Quick-term Indicant will highlight that potential when this occurs.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. This buy signal was triggered by rule, as its price moved above NTI Blue and Green and QTI Yellow with Force Vectors penetrating bullish domains.

It is up 3.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 31.7%. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the market is bullish. However, a small stock market bearish spurt could help it along. It is configuring with strong bullishness; erratic Force Vector behavior in bullish domains and rising Vector Pressure are solid bullish configurations.

TLT is now a QTI Red Bull. It will be interesting to see if it finds comfort at that lofty position. This is the first time it has held that honor since last January.

Major ETF Events

Sep 25, 2009-Fri-Blue bulls are falling fast and TLT is now a QTI Red Bull. However, the bullish Blue Curves have not collapsed. Until they do, this Near-term Bull remains dominant.

Sep 24, 2009-Thu-A significant reduction in NTI Blue Bulls and weakening Force Vectors identifies with a tired bull, but a bull nonetheless.

Sep 23, 2009-Wed-Twelve Force Vectors fell below Vector Pressure today. Three fell from bullish domains. One Vector Pressure shifted south. These would normally be bearish, but it is simply a cooling off period.

Sep 22, 2009-Tue-Dow Utilities lost NTI Blue Bull status and Dow Transports Force Vector crossed below Vector Pressure. This is configured with a simple money rotation and not a weakening overall bull.

Sep 21, 2009-Mon-There were no major events today.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Bearish convergence was endured last week with general bearishness in nearly all sectors. This bearish attribute has occurred in six of the past 14-weeks. However, combined bullish convergence/divergence in the seven of the last 11-weeks remains bullish. The combination of these suggests the bull cannot expire without a significant battle. Political influences can cause the bull’s expiration, but the populist movement against politicians remains fundamentally bullish.

Indicant Conclusion

Low interest rates offer very narrowed alternative investment opportunities. Therefore, a huge amount of cash should continue chasing stock prices to the north. Politicians are under fire by the establishment. Timidity is increasing in Washington D.C. and that is bullish.

In the meantime, the stock market is merely passing through a cooling phase. It is simply to high. It does not need to go down too much to cool off. All it has to do is meander and allow the various supporting attributes to catch up and then consolidate for yet more bullishness through the heart and soul of bullish seasonality.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

09/27/09

Sep 20, 2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 9, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

This Week’s Report

The Populist Movement is Bullish

The stock market is about mid-way through deep bearish seasonality. Many of you recall past years where deep bearish seasonality demonstrated its reality. This year has been different with the bull’s assault on deep bearish seasonality. Although the stock market has not been dynamically bullish since deep bearish seasonality began five weeks ago, its mild bullish behavior speaks loudly on behalf of the bull.

There are two broad groups of people; producers and non-producers. All governments and their employees are non-producers. Although some government employees perform valuable services, such as soldiers, government remains an organization of non-producers, including the soldiers. However, producers provide soldiers with products enhancing their soldiering abilities.

The growing populist movement against big government is powerfully bullish for the stock market. The Congressional Effect Fund has demonstrated that government at work is bearish and bullish when not at work. This populist movement is producing a “freezing” effect on politicians.

Congress has been in session the past two weeks. Rather than shifting into bearish behavior, the stock market inched higher. The Indicant has been referring to this second leg of the Near-term Bull market now underway as the Blue Dog Bull. The Near-term Bullish Blue Curve was colored blue in honor of those particular politicians that stalemated a near collapse of the free enterprise system a few months ago.

The nine-trillion dollars setting on the sidelines is easing its way back into the stock market. Supply and demand phenomena ensue as the number of stocks for sell diminishes while the number of buyers increase. As long as government is stalemated, confused, in disarray, the stock market should remain bullish. The idea here is that capitalists will have fewer distractions from the non-producers and be able to make more money.

The Near-term Bull originated twenty-six weeks ago. It nearly expired in mid-July as socialism and fascism were gaining momentum by the government and politicians. The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for a few ETF’s and bear for a few of the major indices at that time. Configurations were forming that suggested another bear leg was about to emerge.

However, rather than collapsing under the full weight of socialistic and fascistic threats, the bull was aroused by two evolving phenomena. The first was resistance by the Blue Dog democrats. Their resistance slowed cap and trade and healthcare reform touted throughout the legislative process. This allowed the grassroots populist movement to gain momentum, which culminated in a peaceful march in Washington D.C. one week ago.

As long as this populist movement against big government persists, politicians will be slower in their production of ridiculous legislation. That slowness will retain an underlying bullish theme within the stock market.

The stock market sniffs these sorts of phenomena, quite often, before they become obvious. In mid-July, the stock market was on the verge of another collapse. The stock market knows that dollars shuffled through Washington D.C. loses profound efficiencies taking that route. The market sniffed countermeasures taking place almost on a real time basis concurrent to the events that led to stalemating the government. The bull relishes a stalemated government. The bear relishes at the idea of more dollars being processed through government. The bear loves it when bureaucrats touch the money, knowing that efficiencies will be significantly dampened. Give a buck to Michael Dell and you will get ten back. Give a buck to a government bureaucrat and you will be lucky to get two bits back.

Keep in mind that some politicians are insensitive to what voters are thinking. Some politicians are so sick in their three-and-a-half brains, their calling of a phony higher order overrides what reality actually holds. Sick brains formulate their own reality. So be cautious that some politicians do not care about populist movements against big government. They can still pass legislation that would please Karl Marx. If the market sniffs such a possibility may manifest, the bear will rejoice, killing the bull. If legislation is passed, supporting the concepts of socialism and/or fascism rest assured your grandchildren will not see a Dow over 5,000 and that may be optimistic.

Keep in mind all bad things originate with stealth like behavior in a manner similar to being bitten by a snake. It is all over after the fangs inject the venom. You can detect this stealth if you see a growing consensus in Congress. The problem will be a testy one until the mid-term election in November 2010. At that time and only then will we learn what the majority really thinks. Some politicians will be betting the recent populist movement is a mere minority before the mid-term elections.

Keep in mind, the stimulus package is allocating money along a political timeline, as opposed to economic need. That six-hundred billion is still setting there for one and only one purpose; the re-election of incumbents. Honest people would have already funneled that six-hundred billion back into the economy as the unemployment rate continues to move upward. Of course, most of us know that politicians are not honest. At the risk of redundancy, they are liars and taking actions that enhance them being re-elected.

The stimulus money is being held back so that it can be funneled into the economy to elevate employment just ahead of the next election in 2010. If a significant portion of that employment is in government (non-producers), the vote-getting methodology just may work, very similar to the social and economic decay that FDR pulled off in the 1930’s. Politicians only want high employment on Election Day. They do not care about today’s unemployment. They only care about being re-elected. They wine and dine, daily, without regard to the hardships their efforts have imposed on the current economy. They live the good life and their goal is to continue doing so and even expand it to their pals in other low effort, low performing institutions.

This is what is going to happen on the political front. Politicians will do all possible to keep unemployment high for the next six to eight months. The release of stimulus money will accelerate next year in the hopes of reducing unemployment with a crescendo on Election Day. As the numbers of Americans start getting jobs, politicians will proclaim their greatness and even elaborate on their high intelligence. It will be interesting to see if 51% or more of the population buys into their façade. It will be interesting to see if Americans understand that recessions the past two-hundred years ended on their own and before the birth of contemporary politicians.

As long as the Near-term Indicant’s bullish blue curve continues moving north, the stock market is sniffing stalemated government. If it collapses, you will know more politicians are slapping each other on the back and getting ready to launch yet another harmful result on you and me.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated 36-buy signals and no sell signals.

In addition to the buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 151 of the 333-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 26.2%. That annualizes to 66.4%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 151-stocks and funds for an average of 20.6-weeks.

Although there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 130-stocks and funds of 333- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 37.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 75.4-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Sep 19, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 102-stocks and funds out of 345 tracked for an average of 147.8-weeks. They were up by an average of 165.4% (annualized at 58.2%). There were 232-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 14.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 26.4-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 251-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Sep 20, 2007. They were up by an average of 149.1% (annualized at 61.8%) since their respective buy signals an average of 125.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 91-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 5.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 17.0-weeks earlier.

There were 261-stocks and funds with hold signals on Sep 15, 2006 since their buy signals an average of 83.8-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 112.5% (annualized at 69.8%). There were 36-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 14.5% from their respective sell signals an average of 19.0-weeks earlier.

On Sep 16, 2005, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 231-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 105.8% (annualized at 60.8%) since their buy signals an average of 90.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 85-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 9.0% since their sell signals an average of 22.6-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Sep 18, 2004, there were 186-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 78.2% (annualized at 68.2%) since their respective buy signals an average of 59.6-weeks earlier. There were 84-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 27.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 46.9-weeks earlier.

On Sep 20, 2003, there were 271-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 53.8%, annualizing at 101.7%, since the buy signals an average of 31.4-weeks earlier. There were 16-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 23.2% since their sell signals an average of 31.4-weeks earlier.

On Sep 20, 2002, there were 74-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 13.9%, since their buy signals 18.1-weeks earlier. They were annualizing at 40.0%. The 119-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 30.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 14.3-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

All updated information can be accessed from the following link. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Deep bearish seasonality is absent this year. This is due, in part, to the Blue Dog democrats and the grassroots populist movement against big government. Many more funds and stocks crossed above their bearish yellow curves this past weekend. The populist march on Washington D.C. added enough to punch stocks and funds above the Mid-term bearish yellow curve. As long political discourse remains in government, the bull should remain dominant for the next several months.

The market is about to enter the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. That is increasing bullish bias.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% due to the Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant signaling bullish bias while the Mid-term Indicant is also shifting toward that bias.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses.

Most of the longer-term signals of stocks and funds continue with “avoid” signals, but a few are still holding. The risk of continued holding, for the likes of Apple, remains relaxed.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 34.8% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 91.4% and the S&P500 is up 37.5% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 89.5% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming.

The Dow is down 30.7% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 25.4% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is down 27.3% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking, like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

The NASDAQ is down 57.8% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 30.1% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 16.2% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. (This remains even with the immediate Blue Dog potential).

The Dow is up 11.9% so far this year. The NASDAQ is up 35.2% and the S&P500 is up by 18.3%. Keep in mind the post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since 1832. The stock market is not conforming to this historical standard at this time, but will in the event socialism becomes legislated.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 37.1% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. So far, the NASDAQ is incongruent with this post election year.

The NASDAQ was down by 35.8% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which is consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 43.0%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 4.7% and finished up by 8.6% for that year, which was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. It was down by 0.7% in 2005’s post election year, which maintained congruency to the historical standards of losses. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. 2005 finished up by a mere 1.4%, which was an excellent year based on post election year historical standards of bearishness.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 1.4% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 9.8% at this time in 2007 and finished that year in positive territory by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. It was down 17.1% at this time last year. The NASDAQ finished down by 40.5% in 2008. That was contrarian performance to historical election year bullishness and the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

The Short-term Indicant continues signaling bull in spite of the market’s historical standards and current incongruence to those standards.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Short-term rates continue configuring at what appears to be a cyclical minimum. Normally, that would threaten the bull, but they are so low the immediate prognosis borders minutia. In essence, interest rate levels are irrelevant to the stock market at this time.

As stated twelve weeks ago, mortgage rates continue moving north and aggressively so, but most likely an aberration. As anticipated, they softened the past five weeks. Mortgage rates are vacillating in a neutral zone.

As stated 51-weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental. You will see that prognosis continuing in spite of recent bullish expressions. This cycle should endure a double dip.

As stated 47-weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.” This year is two-thirds complete. The bear has been passive since early March, but it still has plenty of time to demonstrate its reflection of a souring culture. The Blue Dogs have upset this line of thinking and we will know more when Congressional behavior is demonstrated over the next few quarters.

As stated the past three weeks, on a positive note, it appears enough of the populace are influencing their political representatives to slow the progress of stupidity. If this happens, then bearish expectations of great magnitude will be muted.

Rising Near-term Indicant Green and Blue curves with bullish Vector Pressure and QTI Red Bulls offers pronounced protection against the bear. The bull is being threatened again with the return of Congress. Vector Pressure started shifting to the south three weeks ago, but still remains high enough to prevent the bear from dominating.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 1.7% since that sell signal. It has been bearish in 17-of the last 37-weeks. It has been bullish in 15-of the last 23-weeks but has not yet qualified for a Mid-term Indicant buy signal. Getting close, though.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 2.0% since then.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 10.7%, annualizing at 78.4% since its buy signal on July 31, 2009.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy this weekend. It has been bullish in 19-of the last 28-weeks, but bearish in eight of the last 14-weeks.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 25.5% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 4.8% since its buy signal last week.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Aug 3, 2009. It is up 6.3% since then, annualizing at 49.1%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 22.3% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.6%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 28.2%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009. It is up 10.0% since the Near-term buy signal, annualizing at 24.4%. Gold and oil are bullishly more aggressive after six months of flat behavior.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on July 31, 2009. The ten major indices are up by an average of 8.1% since that bull signal, annualizing at 422.3%.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $28,204,599. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,494,021 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $138,970. That beats buy and hold’s $104,643 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $194,365. That beats buy and hold’s $73,955 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1787.8%, 32.8%, and 162.8%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 46.2% since then. It remains too risky to buy since the Near-term Indicant Bull continues resisting bearish assaults. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, current technical indicators are advising to avoid this fund until the Near-term bullish cycle expires. However, this Near-term Bull is turning into a thoroughbred and will not expire without a battle.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 239.2% (annualized at 13.3%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 933-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning. However, the Long-term Indicant is getting very close to signaling bear. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below. You will notice long-term projections are bearish.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Overall configurations continue suggesting the bear cannot dominate at this time. Some minor indications of bullish fatigue continue with their assertions, but no longer accelerating. The market is sensing Congressional indecisiveness due to populace behavior. That is bullish and technical support for the bull remains in tact.

The Near-term Bull is 28-weeks old. The average Near-term life cycles approximate 10-14-weeks. This does not mean they are always followed by a reversal cycle. Extended inflections can occur for several days or even weeks ahead of a renewed Near-term bull or bear cycle. This bull demonstrated dynamic responses to the bear’s influence in mid-July. If the bear does not demonstrate equal or greater magnitude in responses, this Near-term Bull will delay its expiration. So far, the bear has been silent to bullish expressions. Current configurations are offering very little encouragement to the bear other than bullish mature Force Vectors, which is the least serious threat to any bull cycle.

Bullishness the past several weeks appeared to be emotionally-based, as the so-called improving fundamentals are not justification for the magnitude of the bull’s wrath. However, as usual, the market can move with sustainability against reasoned fundamentals. This may turn out to be a Blue Dog Bull with the help of 9-trillion dollars chasing the bull north. Cap and Trade and Healthcare Reform, if stopped, will be bullish for the stock market. Tyranny by the majority, in this case, is the correct tyranny, when desiring bullish stock markets. One can surmise the market is anticipating Congressional disappointment this coming month and thus one reason for bullish timidity. Also, there are some renewed hints of inflation; the hidden tax. Gold toppled $1,000/oz last week and holding very well above that level.

Quick-term Red Bulls are not to be argued with. Until Quick-term Red Bulls expire, this bull should be considered a thoroughbred, which is increasingly obvious. This is supported on a Near-term basis as Near-term Blue Bulls continue in their support. There will be no bearish threat until you see Near-term Blue Bulls begin to expire.

Do not be surprised at continuing non-bullishness in the next few days. However, there remains no significant bearish threat on the immediate horizon. The bull will most likely rest until Congressional recess and then take off again as long as Congress is stalled.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

Contrarian VIX is the lone Near-term Bear. It is up 1.7% since the bear signal 1.1 weeks ago.

The remaining eleven major indices are up by an average of 21.9% annualizing at 75.8% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 15.0-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 15.7%, annualizing at 57.2%, since their bull signals an average of 14.3-weeks ago.

The lone bear, VIX, is down 33.3% since its bear signal 22.1-weeks ago. It will not receive a Quick-term Bull signal until it crosses above bearish yellow curve.

On-going attribute watch for major indices: Biases are dated at the time of observation. The next sentence advises of conditions and indicators each day, unless they are also dated.

QTI Red Bull Status-Jul 27, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven of 11-non-contrarian indices are red bulls.

QTI Yellow Bear Status-Jul 23, 2009-Non-bearish bias. There are no non-contrarian yellow bears. VIX is a yellow bear.

-NTI Blue Bull Status-Sep 8, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven of 11-non-contrarian are blue bulls.

-NTI Green Bear Status-Sep 2, 2009-Non-bearish bias. All 11-major non-contrarian indices are above bearish green and thus non-bearish. The VIX threat expired Sep 11, 2009, but is configured for a quick resumption of that threat based on its rising Vector Pressure. Other attributes are not yet supportive, though.

-NTI Blue Bull Direction-Jul 22, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven of eleven non-contrarians are directionally bullish. Sep 11, 2009-VIX Blue Curve collapsed. It will be interesting to see if this completely discourages its bullish interest and resumes its threat to the overall bull market. Sep 15, 2009-VIX is configuring for its bullishness and stock market bearishness; not sustainable at this time, just a spurt.

-NTI Green Bear Direction – Jul 30, 2009-Non-bearish bias. Eleven of eleven non-contrarian are directionally non-bearish.

-STI Force Vector Position- Sep 11, 2009-Non-bearish bias. Eleven of eleven in bullish domains.

-STI Force Vector Direction – Sep 11, 2009-Bias difficult, as most are bullishly mature, offering a mild incentive for the bear to display its existence. (Sep 15, 2009-All that has happened since Sep 11 is extraordinary mild bullishness and mild bearishness with an edge to the bull).

-Vector Pressure Direction- Sep 14, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven of eleven non-contrarian moving north.

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes

QTI-Bullish Red Curve-Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in bullish trend.

QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve-Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend

NTI-Bullish Blue Curve- Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in bullish trend; Contrarian VIX remains collapsed.

NTI-Bearish Green Curve- Non-bearish unanimity with 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in bullish trend.

STI-Vector Pressure-Bullish unanimity with 11 of 11-non-contrarian indices in bullish trend.

-Near-term Directional Intensity - Jul 30, 2009-Bullish unanimity remains with all NTI Bullish Blue and Bearish Green Rising. Blue Bulls remain in majority position.

-Political Climate – Congress in session, which is bearish, but technical data overriding at this point. Strong bullishness not likely to return until Congressional recess.

As stated for several days, the NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators are no longer configuring with potential robustness. Current configurations suggest limited support for bullish or bearish behavior. As stated the past several days, this favors the prevailing direction, which is bullish. However, volume in two of the last four days suggest increased non-bearish bias.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Sep 18, 2009-Fri-Not much has changed this week. Most attributes continue displaying a very weak and timid bear. Sep 17, 2009-Thu-Same as yesterday but with a mild hint of non-bullishness. Sep 16, 2009-Wed-Remain relaxed in your holdings. Any bearish expressions, with current configurations, will not threaten bull’s sustainability. Sep 15, 2009-Tue-Bullish fatigue is obvious, but the bear remains so weak that the bull continues its northerly march taking very small steps. VIX and Utilities suggests some minor vulnerability to this aging, but very strong, bull. Sep 14, 2009-Mon-Bullishly mature Force Vectors offer an opening for the bear. Even with bearish behavior, most of the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term attributes remain strongly configured in support of the bull. The Dow Utilities Force Vector is configuring with potential support for the bear. If the bear remains silent in the next two days, the bull will strengthen. Sep 11, 2009-Fri-Nothing has changed. Although bullish fatigue remains in effect, the bull, nonetheless remains dominant.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 17.5%, annualizing at 73.9%, since their buy signals an average of 12.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding one ETF; contrarian QID. It is down by 15.4% since its sell signal 8.1-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 20.7% since their buy signals an average of 16.0-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 67.1%. Although there were no sell signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 49.7% since its sell signal on Mar 26, 2009.

Quick-term Red Bulls significantly reduce the threat of dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. As long as there are Quick-term Red Bulls, one does not have to worry about bearish dominance. Breadth protection improved from only 5-red bulls 48-trading days ago to 29-red bulls today. This is a significant non-bearish configuration with respect to disallowing dynamic behavior on the immediate horizon. This remains in effect in spite of bearish aggression three weeks ago and the return of Congressmen to Washington D.C.

Vector Pressure in bullish domains is also a bear depressant. There are 23-ETF’s with this bullish and non-bearish configuration. There remains no dynamic bearish threat with sustainable duration at this time. This attribute is again holding a bullish majority, which is solidly bullish.

Force Vectors are configuring with normalcy. Favorable probabilities of bearish aggression continue shifting outward. Congressional behavior will influence fundamentals. If Congress behaves like communists, the bear will be aroused. Even with that, though, no sell signals will occur until prices interact with NTI green curves, which are moving north.

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

27-NTI Blue Bulls represent a solid majority supporting Near-term Bullishness.

30-NTI Blue Curves are sloping north and thus remain supportive of the NTI Bull.

28-NTI Green Curves are still sloping north, expressing non-bearishness.

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

29-QTI Red Bulls represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term bullishness.

29-QTI Bullish Red Curves are sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

30-QTI Non-yellow Bears represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness.

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

28-Force Vectors are in bullish domains, providing near maximal bullish support. (Bullish cycle is mature and somewhat inviting for the bear to demonstrate its existence).

23-Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains with majority supporting bullish bias.

28-Vector Pressures are moving in a bullish direction with majority support of the bull.

Sep 18, 2009-Fri-Lost two NTI Blue Bulls today, but non-threatening to bullish bias.

Sep 17, 2009-Thu-Bullishly mature Force Vectors suggests potential non-bullishness the next few days.

Sep 16, 2009-Wed-There is little bearish support at this time.

Sep 15, 2009-Tue-Same as yesterday even though bullish Force Vectors are mature.

Sep 14, 2009-Mon-Overall ETF synergy continues supporting bull, even if bull is tired.

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on Jul 23, 2009. It is down 15.4% since that sell signal. The Near-term Indicant is on the verge of signaling buy. It would like to see Force Vector penetrate bullish domains. Its Vector Pressure, like that of TLT, is rising very slowly from bearish domains, which is bullish for those funds. (This is obviously a slow process).

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 49.7% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $35.04 and still falling. The rate of descent is accelerating.

ETF#03-Natural Resources - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 6.3% since those buy signals, annualizing at 49.1%. This fund had been struggling, but bullish in six of the last eight days and appears to no longer be struggling.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 22.3% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 28.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $87.29 and still rising.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 10.0% since then, annualizing at 24.4%.

It is a QTI Red Bull and a NTI Blue Bull. That suggests a real safe holding position.

It is up 1.1% since that buy signal, annualizing at 12.2%. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the market is bullish. However, a small stock market bearish spurt could help it along. It is configuring with strong bullishness; erratic Force Vector behavior in bullish domains and rising Vector Pressure are solid bullish configurations. It was not contrarian last Thursday, but resumed its contrarian behavior in five of the last six trading days.

Major ETF Events

Sep 18, 2009-Fri-Contrarian TLT Force Vector crossed above Vector Pressure today, but barely. It will be interesting to see if TLT bullish resistance results from this early next week.

Sep 17, 2009-Thu-Contrarian TLT was disproportionately bullish, relative to mild market bearishness, adding to the suggested expectation of overall non-bullishness for the stock market in the next few days.

Sep 16, 2009-Wed-GLD is at a combined breakout and maximum resistance. If it is up tomorrow and passes above resistance, then breakout pricing should be profoundly bullish. Also, today’s bullish behavior was without synergy and somewhat of a concern; a mild one.

Sep 15, 2009-Tue-No major events; Dow Utilities is the most vulnerable to any bearish incursion.

Sep 14, 2009-Mon-Utilities bullish today, but simple money rotation.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Bullish convergence was again enjoyed last week. Combined bullish convergence/divergence in the seven of the last ten weeks remains bullish. This attribute continues weakening, but bullish nonetheless. Bearish convergence occurred in five of the past 13-weeks, which is non-threatening to the bull. Twenty of the past twenty-seven weeks enjoyed combined bullish convergence/divergence. This suggests this Near-term Bull will not expire with the efficiency desired by the bear. This suggests the current Near-term Bull’s expiration will be extended to September/October and possibly beyond that. Political influences can cause its expiration. Populist support for capitalism is the prime source of this bullish behavior.

Indicant Conclusion

Political discourse continues supporting bullish behavior. As long as Congress is in session, it is obvious the stock market remains cautious with its relatively tame bullish expressions.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

09/20/09

Sep 13, 2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 9, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

This Week’s Report

Liars

We all know that politicians have a penchant for lying at one time or another. They certainly have the reputation for doing it. Technology is helping elucidate that more and more. Over time, one could conclude that future lying will become “bearish.”

Stimulating less lying is possible when a liar understands the embarrassment of being caught at lying. Politicians tend to behave in a way to avoid embarrassment, as opposed to simply practicing right from wrong. Technology is elevating the detection of liars. This should dampen lying frequency.

There are some, however, who lie but do not know they are lying. In essence, they believe their own fiction. Extreme cases of this sort of behavior line the pocket books of psychologist and psychiatrist for those who prefer to be a better soul than they are.

Most politicians, of course, avoid psychologists and psychiatrists. That is damaging to their careers. That avoidance does not hide the fact that something major is wrong with many of them. They tend to think that they are powerful. They are not.

Real power is garnished by the most productive, which requires absolute honesty day in and day out. It is those, who rule, but they do not know it or even care.

Those with fake power, such as politicians, screw things up from time to time because the most productive and honest for the most part tend to ignore political noise. They are usually just too plain busy working hard.

When political noise becomes very loud and with harmful conclusions, real or threatened, the honest and highly productive awaken. Politicians, for the most part, will back down from the honest and highly productive. There is an underlying primordial thread of knowledge that suggests most know who will be the victor when confronting “real power.”

From time to time, though, such as with Adolph Hitler, the ability to prognosticate their wrongness remains absent. Those types usually meet with a premature death. The problem, though, is the damage to the lives and assets of others can be massive and long lasting. Some mistakes cascade into eternal bliss and remain that way. The honest and productive will not avoid the pain if they do not slow down and/or obliterate those with fake power.

Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, and James Madison were among those who understood human nature. That is, none of us can be fully trusted. They understood that power alone can corrupt. Their designed intention more or less requires significant collusion ahead of corruptive behavior. Such collusion is difficult, but certainly not impossible, as we have seen from the likes of Adolph Hitler, Saddam Hussein, and others like them.

Last week, the President of the United States spoke to the U.S. Congress. During the course of his speech, a Congressman from South Carolina blurted out, “you lie.” The president retorted, very politely, “that is not true.” In essence, there is disagreement between two politicians as to which is the liar. It does not matter, which is which.

What does matter? Well, if you like bullish stock markets, this political discourse should please you. If they simply continue calling each other liars, all will be fine. If the politicians reach across the aisle, become pals, get along, etc, rest assured the bear will be aroused. Smoot Hawley was passed in the post election year of 1929 and the bear was erotically aroused with that. We are in a similar situation, so keep your guard up.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated seven buy signals and no sell signals.

In addition to the buy signals, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 144 of the 333-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 24.4%. That annualizes to 59.1%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 144-stocks and funds for an average of 21.4-weeks.

Although there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 166-stocks and funds of 333- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 35.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 72.1-weeks ago.

Unfortunately, highly talented managers are generally unemployable by existing companies. If existing companies were more efficient at firing dilettantes, who are despised by the talented, then they would have a better chance at attracting talent.

One year ago, on Sep 12, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 112-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 138.2-weeks. They were up by an average of 149.4% (annualized at 56.2%). There were 185-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 21.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 30.0-weeks earlier. There were 47-sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 251-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Sep 14, 2007. They were up by an average of 149.1% (annualized at 61.8%) since their respective buy signals an average of 125.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 91-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 5.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 17.0-weeks earlier.

There were 263-stocks and funds with hold signals on Sep 8, 2006 since their buy signals an average of 82.4-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 112.9% (annualized at 71.3%). There were 82-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 9.1% from their respective sell signals an average of 24.0-weeks earlier.

On Sep 9, 2005, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 227-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 109.6% (annualized at 62.5%) since their buy signals an average of 91.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 87-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 7.9% since their sell signals an average of 21.7-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Sep 11, 2004, there were 187-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 75.7% (annualized at 67.2%) since their respective buy signals an average of 58.6-weeks earlier. There were 104-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 26.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 45.6-weeks earlier.

On Sep 13, 2003, there were 268-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 51.4%, annualizing at 96.9%, since the buy signals an average of 31.1-weeks earlier. There were 16-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 22.7% since their sell signals an average of 31.1-weeks earlier.

On Sep 13, 2002, there were 171-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 8.0%, since their buy signals 10.6-weeks earlier. They were annualizing at 39.3%. The 101-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 32.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 16.9-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of the bear market. So, do not be surprised at increased buying and selling in the next several weeks. Some signals will be quickly reversed if their technical data deteriorates. Fluttering is common before a stock begins its movement toward a long period of directional intensity. The key is to differentiate indecisiveness from impending bearish aggression. That is difficult to do.

All updated information can be accessed from the following link. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Strong bearish seasonality continues to restrict some buy signals, even though there were a few additional buy signals this weekend. Congress is back at work. This is also bearish and one of the historical influences on bearish seasonality. As previously stated, political disarray in Washington D.C. will be bullish. If all the politicians sing from the same hymnal the bear will be delighted. Last week, one politician called another politician and liar. The liar then asserted plaintiff was lying. That sort of behavior is bullish.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% due to the Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant signaling bullish bias while the Mid-term Indicant is also shifting toward that bias.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses.

Most of the longer-term signals of stocks and funds continue with “avoid” signals, but a few are still holding. The risk of continued holding, for the likes of Apple, remains relaxed.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 31.8% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 86.8% and the S&P500 is up 34.2% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 82.7% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming.

The Dow is down 32.2% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 27.2% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is down 29.9% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking, like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

The NASDAQ is down 58.8% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 31.7% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 18.1% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. (This remains even with the immediate Blue Dog potential).

The Dow is up 9.4% so far this year. The NASDAQ is up 32.0% and the S&P500 is up by 15.4%. Keep in mind the post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since 1832. The stock market is not conforming to this historical standard at this time, but will in the event socialism becomes legislated.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 31.4% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. So far, the NASDAQ is incongruent with this post election year.

The NASDAQ was down by 32.6% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which is consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 38.2%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 5.4% and finished up by 8.6% for that year, which was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. It was down by 0.001% in 2005’s post election year, which maintained congruency to the historical standards of losses. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. 2005 finished up by a mere 1.4%, which was an excellent year based on post election year historical standards of bearishness.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was down 1.5% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 7.5% at this time in 2007 and finished that year in positive territory by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. It was down 14.9% at this time last year. The NASDAQ finished down by 40.5% in 2008. That was contrarian performance to historical election year bullishness and the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

So far, this presidential post election year is performing inconsistently with historical standards. It continues to be bullish in the face of historical bearishness. Last year’s inconsistency is somewhat influential, as two strong back to back inconsistencies are rare. The capital markets understand socio-political influences are predominant in the first year of most incoming administrations and thus generally non-bullish with an actual demonstration of outright bearishness in presidential post election year. As the popularity of Congress and the U.S. President wane, the stock market senses a reduction in their power. That is bullish.

The Short-term Indicant continues signaling bull in spite of the market’s historical standards and current incongruence to those standards.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

As stated eleven weeks ago, mortgage rates continue moving north and aggressively so, but most likely an aberration. As anticipated, they softened the past four weeks. Mortgage rates are vacillating in a neutral zone.

As stated 50-weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental. You will see that prognosis continuing in spite of recent bullish expressions. This cycle should endure a double dip.

As stated 46-weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.” This year is two-thirds complete. The bear has been passive since early March, but it still has plenty of time to demonstrate its reflection of a souring culture. The Blue Dogs have upset this line of thinking and we will know more when Congressional behavior is demonstrated over the next few quarters.

As stated the past two weeks, on a positive note, it appears enough of the populace are influencing their political representatives to slow the progress of stupidity. If this happens, then bearish expectations of great magnitude will be muted.

Rising Near-term Indicant Green and Blue curves with bullish Vector Pressure and QTI Red Bulls offers pronounced protection against the bear. The bull is being threatened again with the return of Congress. Vector Pressure started shifting to the south two weeks ago, but still remains high enough to prevent the bear from dominating.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 0.6% since that sell signal. It has been bearish in 17-of the last 36-weeks. It has been bullish in 14-of the last 22-weeks but has not yet qualified for a Mid-term Indicant buy signal. Getting close, though.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal on Sep 4, 2009. It is up 2.5% since then.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 6.9%, annualizing at 58.8% since its buy signal on July 31, 2009.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 12.6% since that sell signal. It has been bullish in 18-of the last 27-weeks, but bearish in eight of the last 13-weeks.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 28.9% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy this past weekend.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Aug 3, 2009. It is up 3.2% since then, annualizing at 29.9%. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal, but on the last cycle it did not gain similar traction as that from 2003 through 2008.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 22.5% since that buy signal, annualizing at 29.5%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 28.2%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009. It is up 10.1% since the Near-term buy signal, annualizing at 26.0%. Gold and oil are bullishly more aggressive after six months of flat behavior.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on July 31, 2009. The ten major indices are up by an average of 5.6% since that bull signal, annualizing at 290.4%. The 9-trillion dollars are chasing the bull upward and the Blue Dogs may be stalemating government.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $27,587,701. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,461,343 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $135,644. That beats buy and hold’s $102,138 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $189,630. That beats buy and hold’s $72,153 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1787.8%, 32.8%, and 162.8%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 43.6% since then. It remains too risky to buy since the Near-term Indicant Bull continues resisting bearish assaults. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, current technical indicators are advising to avoid this fund until the Near-term bullish cycle expires. However, this Near-term Bull is turning into a thoroughbred and will not expire without a battle.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 231.8% (annualized at 12.9%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 932-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning. However, the Long-term Indicant is getting very close to signaling bear. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below. You will notice long-term projections are bearish.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Overall configurations continue suggesting the bear cannot dominate at this time. Some minor indications of bullish fatigue continue with their assertions, but no longer accelerating. The Congressional recess concluded with a return of potential anti-capitalistic efforts and thus adding a bit of added fundamental bearishness. However, technical support for the bull remains in tact.

The Near-term Bull is 27-weeks old. The average Near-term life cycles approximate 10-14-weeks. This does not mean they are always followed by a reversal cycle. Extended inflections can occur for several days or even weeks ahead of a renewed Near-term bull or bear cycle. This bull demonstrated dynamic responses to the bear’s influence in mid-July. If the bear does not demonstrate equal or greater magnitude in responses, this Near-term Bull will delay its expiration. So far, the bear has been silent to bullish expressions. Current configurations are offering very little encouragement to the bear, but there is a slight shift developing in favor of the bear at this time.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

Contrarian VIX received a bear signal yesterday in spite of its rising Vector Pressure, which is bullish for the VIX. The VIX is the lone major index with a bear signal and it is up 2.7% since yesterday’s bear signal.

The remaining eleven major indices are up by an average of 19.0% annualizing at 70.5% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 14.0-weeks ago. VIX’s Blue Curve collapsed yesterday and its price fell below Green. VIX remains configured for a bullish response, but attribute positions disallow bull signal.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 12.9%, annualizing at 50.8%, since their bull signals an average of 13.3-weeks ago.

The lone bear, VIX, is down 32.6% since its bear signal 21.1-weeks ago. It will not receive a Quick-term Bull signal until it crosses above bearish yellow curve.

On-going attribute watch for major indices: Biases are dated at the time of observation. The next sentence advises of conditions and indicators each day, unless they are also dated.

QTI Red Bull Status-Jul 27, 2009-Bullish bias. Ten of 11-non-contrarian indices are red bulls.

QTI Yellow Bear Status-Jul 23, 2009-Non-bearish bias. There are no non-contrarian yellow bears. VIX is a yellow bear.

-NTI Blue Bull Status-Sep 8, 2009-Bullish bias. Ten of 11-non-contrarian are blue bulls.

-NTI Green Bear Direction – Jul 30, 2009-Non-bearish bias. Eleven of eleven non-contrarian are directionally non-bearish.

-STI Force Vector Position- Sep 11, 2009-Non-bearish bias. Ten of eleven in bullish domains.

-STI Force Vector Direction – Sep 11, 2009-Bias difficult, as most a bullishly mature, offering a mild incentive for the bear to display its existence.

-Vector Pressure Position- Jul 23, 2009-Bullish bias. Sep 8, 2009-Tue-Eight of eleven remain in bullish domains. Although a majority, the bear is mildly challenging. Sep 11, 2009-Seven of eleven remain in bullish domains, furthering the observation of a tiring bull.

-Vector Pressure Direction- Sep 8, 2009-Bearish bias. Eight moving north; one of which is contrarian VIX.

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes

QTI-Bullish Red Curve-Majority 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in bullish trend.

QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve-Majority 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend

NTI-Bullish Blue Curve-Majority 11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in bullish trend; Contrarian VIX collapsed on Sep 10, 2009.

NTI-Bearish Green Curve-11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in bullish trend; Contrarian VIX also in bullish trend.

STI-Vector Pressure-Seven non-contrarian indices in bearish trend; Contrarian VIX also in bullish trend.

-Near-term Directional Intensity - Jul 30, 2009-Bullish unanimity remains with all NTI Bullish Blue and Bearish Green Rising. Blue Bulls remain in majority position.

-Tangential Protection – Sep 1, 2009-Mon-Protection lines have been constructed for Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ100, S&P400, and S&P600. These indices will not receive a Near-term bear signal until they fall below those tangential protection lines. The other indices will most likely receive bear signals when they fall below their NTI Green Curves with negatively sloping Vector Pressure. Near-term bear synergy cannot manifest until all indices are receiving a Near-term Bear signal.

-Political Climate – Congress in session, which is bearish, but technical data overriding at this point.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Sep 11, 2009-Fri-Nothing has changed during the course of this week. Although bullish fatigue remains in effect, the bull, nonetheless remains dominant. Sep 8, 2009-Tue-Near-term Bull strengthened a bit today, while mild bearish attributes did not retreat. Bull remains in “fatigue mode” but still in dominant position. Sep 4, 2009-Fri-Although the Short-term Indicant bullish attributes are weakening, they have not shifted into support of the bear.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 14.6%, annualizing at 67.1%, since their buy signals an average of 11.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding one ETF; contrarian QID. It is down by 11.4% since its sell signal 7.1-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 17.7% since their buy signals an average of 15.0-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 61.1%. Although there were no sell signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 47.3% since its sell signal on Mar 26, 2009.

Quick-term Red Bulls significantly reduce the threat of dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. As long as there are Quick-term Red Bulls, one does not have to worry about bearish dominance. Breadth protection improved from only 5-red bulls 43-trading days ago to 29-red bulls today. This is a significant non-bearish configuration with respect to disallowing dynamic behavior on the immediate horizon. This remains in effect in spite of bearish aggression last week and the return of Congressmen to Washington D.C.

Vector Pressure in bullish domains is also a bear depressant. There are 15-ETF’s with this bullish and non-bearish configuration. There remains no dynamic bearish threat with sustainable duration at this time. Vector Pressure protection against the bear is deteriorating slightly. Five dropped out of bullish domains last week and three more this week, but still non-bearish. However, this no longer holds a solid bullish majority. The battle is on between bull and bear with Vector Pressure attempting to pull up Force Vectors and Force Vectors attempting to drag down Vector Pressure. Recent activity indicates the bear is gaining a little ground, but this Near-term Bull is a thoroughbred and tough to bring down.

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

29-NTI Blue Bulls represent a solid majority supporting Near-term Bullishness.

30-NTI Blue Curves are sloping north and thus remain supportive of the NTI Bull.

28-NTI Green Curves are still sloping north, expressing non-bearishness.

Quick-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

29-QTI Red Bulls represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term bullishness.

29-QTI Bullish Red Curves are sloping north in solid majority support for Quick-term bullishness.

30-QTI Non-yellow Bears represent a solid majority supporting Quick-term non-bearishness.

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

26-Force Vectors are in bullish domains, providing maximal bullish support.

15-Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains, nominally supporting bullish bias.

10-Vector Pressures are moving in a bullish direction, supporting the bull, but down from 25 seven-days ago. This is a significant drop, but still supportive of bull, based on being in bullish domains. The bear is obviously attempting to influence.

Sep 11, 2009-Fri-Overall ETF synergy continues supporting bull, even bull is tired.

Sep 10, 2009-Thu-Overall ETF synergy continues supporting bull. Weakening slowed a bit today.

Sep 8, 2009-Tue-Overall ETF synergy remains in favor of the bull, but increasingly weakening.

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on Jul 23, 2009. It is down 11.4% since that sell signal. The Near-term Indicant is on the verge of signaling buy. It would like to see Force Vector penetrate bullish domains. Its Vector Pressure, like that of TLT, is rising very slowing from bearish domains, which is bullish for those funds.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 47.3% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $35.64 and still falling.

ETF#03-Natural Resources - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is up 3.2% since those buy signals. This fund struggling, but significantly bullish the past three days.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 22.5% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 29.5%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $87.01 and still rising.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 10.1% since then, annualizing at 26.0%.

It is a QTI Red Bull and a NTI Blue Bull. That suggests a real safe holding position.

It is up 2.1% since that buy signal, annualizing at 29.9%. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the market is bullish. However, a small stock market bearish spurt could help it along. It is configuring with strong bullishness; erratic Force Vector behavior in bullish domains and rising Vector Pressure are solid bullish configurations. It was not contrarian yesterday, but resumed its contrarian nature today.

Major ETF Events

Sep 11, 2009-Fri-Gold toppled $1,000/oz today.

Sep 10, 2009-Thu-VIX received a bear signal on its collapsed NTI Blue curve. TLT was not contrarian today.

Sep 9, 2009-Wed-Near-term Blue Bulls increased by seven today, suggesting continued Near-term bullishness.

Sep 8, 2009-Tue-Eight Force Vectors elevated themselves from bearish domains, supporting additional non-bearishness.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

Bullish convergence was enjoyed last week. Combined bullish convergence/divergence in the six of the nine last weeks remains bullish. This attribute continues weakening. Bearish convergence occurred in five of the past 12-weeks, which is non-threatening to the bull. Nineteen of the past twenty-six weeks enjoyed combined bullish convergence/divergence. This suggests this Near-term Bull will not expire with the efficiency desired by the bear. This suggests the current Near-term Bull’s expiration will be extended to September/October and possibly beyond that. Political influences can cause its expiration. Capitalist are the only influence on its continuation.

Indicant Conclusion

After pausing a bit, the stock market appears to be anticipating political discourse in Washington D.C. Last week, the stock market appeared to bias in favor of limited wealth destruction by the U.S. Congress. Do not be surprised at significant bullish or bearish expressions, as a function of Congress’s behavior. Stalemating and discourse will be bullish. Passing Cap and Trade and Healthcare Reform will be bearish.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

09/13/09

Sep 06, 2009 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

When Does One Become a Creep?

We have all met creeps at one time or another in our busy and/or luxurious lives. When meeting one, most of us try to avoid them, unless we are also a creep and enjoy the company of other creeps.

Where do creeps come from? Are they born or do they become that way? Research by psychologists remains limited in this field of study. As long as society moves forward with an increasing quality of life, the creep population must be less one-half. History shows that wars in the past have been used to adjust the population of creeps. Unfortunately, sometimes the creep side wins and hundreds of years being led by creeps send the quality of life to the south.

Madoff was a creep. He was abnormal creep. Ponzi was a creep and Madoff simply copied Ponzi’s methods. Using Madoff as an example, one can conclude that creeps are not born. They learn from other creeps.

Most of you have virus protection software on your computer. Why do you have that? Creeps are the culprit. Rather than using their technical talents to add value, they develop malicious software in an attempt to be destructive to your computer and your life.

Most creeps gain pleasure by creating harm, discomfort, or destruction of others’ assets. Recent data shows that approximately 55,000 1994 Honda Accords are stolen each year. Thieves are creeps. If someone stole one of their assets, they would become upset. That would deny their self-proclaimed beliefs that they have a right to take assets from another, as opposed to the other way.

When a robber points a gun at you, the robber has total command and control over you. However, if you somehow take the gun from the robber, the robber’s behavior shifts quite a bit. Creeps act normal when the potential for pain and anguish is turned on them.

Other creeps think they know more about how life should be lived than you. Politicians, dictators, and other people in social leadership positions are the abnormal ones. Some preachers, some lawyers, some judges, and some college professors are notorious for possessing these “control freak” attributes. Kings, queens, and dictators are the ultimate masters of this control freak behavior.

Creeps develop varying skills. Criminal creeps, generally, do not possess cross functional skills. The car thief and the programmer that writes virus software are not one in the same. Unfortunately, that suggests there are a huge number of creeps on this planet, when considering the varying crimes committed. There are of course, non-criminal creeps. Those are the types most of us encounter. You know who they are. So, the population of creeps is very high and that is the real cause of wars and general disgruntlement.

There are 2,000,000-plus people in U.S. prisons. Some are innocent, but rest assured that more guilty are not imprisoned. Many have not yet been caught at being a criminal creep and many of them never will. The U.S. population is just over three-hundred million. Let’s assume that only one-half of the guilty are in prison. That suggests there are 4,000,000-criminal creeps in the United States.

Politicians, who are derived from the populace they represent, lead democracies. So, doing a bit of math here, the U.S. has at least four-million creeps divided by three-hundred million people times ten-thousand, which is an approximation of federal and state representatives and senators, equals approximately 133-creeps in social leadership position.

Charlie Rangel is a creep. He is under investigation by the Ethics Committee. As of this past week, only one Ethics Committee member returned bribe money received from Rangel back to Rangel. The other members of the Ethics Committee must also be creeps. To date, they have kept the bribe money and it is them who will decide if Creep Rangel retains his chairmanship. Creeps create farces. That is their only output.

Rangel was most likely not a creep before being elected to Congress. Although speculative, it was likely he was not born a creep, but evolved into a creep by virtue of environmental factors; working and living among a huge number of politicians.

Creeps, for the most part, are self-centered. Some are just crazy. All is well with them, when they are pointing the gun at some victim or being destructive in some way. They are incapable of seeing reality as it is. Saddam Hussein chewed out the guard “for being just plain wrong” when the noose was being draped around his neck, just before his hanging. In essence, Saddam’s three and a half brain contained content that suggested he had a right to kill and destroy others even seconds before his death. In essence, one can conclude there is no remedy for creeps other than their elimination.

There is little doubt that creeps roam the halls of Congress. The following statistics have been floating around on the internet and not verified. However, the source appears reliable. Thirty-six members of the U.S. Congress have been accused of spousal abuse. Seven have been arrested for fraud. Nineteen have been accused of writing bad checks. One-hundred and seventeen have directly and indirectly bankrupted two businesses or more. Three have done time for assault. Seventy-one cannot get a credit card due to bad credit. Fourteen have been arrested on drug-related charges. Eight have been arrested for shoplifting. Twenty-one are defendants in lawsuits. Eighty-four have been arrested for drunk driving. There are 435-members in Congress. The creep total amounts to 380. Let’s hope that some members of Congress is multiple-skilled. If not, then eighty-seven percent of Congress are creeps.

Unfortunately, the creep population in government is not limited to just members of Congress. Some exist in the executive and judicial branches of government. At this very moment in time, some of that subset of the government’s population is transforming into becoming a creep. It is not likely that one shifts from being creep back to non-creep. With that, the creep population is increasing in positions of social leadership.

Insurance companies in some states have been instructed by the legislature in those states, mandating plastic surgery and even sex change operations. Creeps wrote that legislation into law, knowing that other members of the legislature would not read it. That nonsensical legislation accelerates health care insurance cost. Those same creeps now think they know how to resolve healthcare. Rest assured, healthcare problems will not be resolved by an institution infested with creeps.

Creeps threaten the bull. Keep your eye on the creeps. If they legislate stupidity, the bear will be aroused and with gusto. The threat is real and it is near. There should be a law against creep-law.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report. It will help you differentiate sustainability versus spurts regardless of the directional intensity underway.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.

In addition to the buy signal, the Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 143 of the 333-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 21.4%. That annualizes to 54.3%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 143-stocks and funds for an average of 20.5-weeks. The reason the statistics are quite a bit different is due to recent buy signals. Some are up by scant amounts since they have been held for only a few weeks and a few are down.

Although there were no sell signals, the Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 173-stocks and funds of 333- tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 34.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 68.2-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Sep 5, 2008, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 159-stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked for an average of 106.8-weeks. They were up by an average of 121.0% (annualized at 58.9%). There were 175-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 20.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 31.4-weeks earlier.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 250-stocks and funds of the 345-tracked two years ago on Sep 7, 2007. They were up by an average of 148.4% (annualized at 61.7%) since their respective buy signals an average of 125.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 86-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 6.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 16.9-weeks earlier.

There were 229-stocks and funds with hold signals on Sep 1, 2006 since their buy signals an average of 91.1-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 119.5% (annualized at 68.2%). There were 82-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 8.3% from their respective sell signals an average of 23.2-weeks earlier.

On Sep 2, 2005, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 225-stocks and funds out of 320-tracked. They were up by an average of 106.9% (annualized at 60.7%) since their buy signals an average of 91.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 91-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 9.0% since their sell signals an average of 21.2-weeks earlier.

Five years ago, on Sep 4, 2004, there were 184-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 296 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 75.3% (annualized at 67.1%) since their respective buy signals an average of 58.3-weeks earlier. There were 106-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 27.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 44.4-weeks earlier.

On Sep 6, 2003, there were 264-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 296-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 51.6%, annualizing at 96.9%, since the buy signals an average of 27.7-weeks earlier. There were 18-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 8.0% since their sell signals an average of 13.5-weeks earlier.

On Sep 2, 2002, there were 188-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 5.8%, since their buy signals 8.7-weeks earlier. They were annualizing at 41.5%. The 75-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 41.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 21.7-weeks earlier.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking the following link. It is in the member’s only section.

Link to this week’s buy and sell signals.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of the bear market. So, do not be surprised at increased buying and selling in the next several weeks. Some signals will be quickly reversed if their technical data deteriorates. Fluttering is common before a stock begins its movement toward a long period of directional intensity. The key is to differentiate indecisiveness from impending bearish aggression. That is difficult to do.

All updated information can be accessed from the following link. You will need your login ID and password.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals This Weekend

Many stocks and funds are very near the Mid-term Indicant’s bearish yellow curve. Several more are on the verge of receiving buy signals. The problem confronting those buy signals is a shortage of bullish synergy on a Mid-term Indicant basis. The primary depressants to the desired synergy are strong seasonal forces of a bearish nature and the impending return of Congress. If Congressional sessions demonstrate political disarray, confusion, and more or less a do-nothing government, bullish synergy will form. If that occurs, there will be a tremendous surge in buy signals in anticipation of continued bullish behavior. If anti-business legislative activity is accelerated, the bear will be delighted.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% due to the Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant signaling bullish bias while the Mid-term Indicant is also shifting toward that bias.

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses.

Most of the longer-term signals of stocks and funds continue with “avoid” signals, but a few are still holding. The risk of continued holding, for the likes of Apple, remains relaxed.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 29.6% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 81.2% and the S&P500 is up 30.9% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 76.2% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming.

The Dow is down 33.3% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 29.4% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P600-small cap index is down 32.4% since its last closing peak on Jul 19, 2007. Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking, like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices.

The NASDAQ is down 60.0% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 33.5% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 19.5% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. (This remains even with the immediate Blue Dog potential).

The Dow is up 7.6% so far this year. The NASDAQ is up 28.0% and the S&P500 is up by 12.5%. Keep in mind the post election year is the most bearish and has lost money since 1832. The stock market is not conforming to this historical standard at this time.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 28.3% through this week in 2001. Keep in mind the NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness. So far, the NASDAQ is incongruent with this post election year.

The NASDAQ was down by 33.7% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which is consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up by 39.9%. It finished up in that solidly bullish year by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 7.9% and finished up by 8.6% for that year, which was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards. It was down by 1.6% in 2005’s post election year, which maintained congruency to the historical standards of losses. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. 2005 finished up by a mere 1.4%, which was an excellent year based on post election year historical standards of bearishness.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was down 0.6% on this weekend and finished that year with a 9.5%-gain, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 8.9% at this time in 2007 and finished that year in positive territory by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. It was down 14.8% at this time last year. The NASDAQ finished down by 40.5% in 2008. That was contrarian performance to historical election year bullishness and the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

So far, this presidential post election year is performing inconsistently with historical standards. It continues to be bullish in the face of historical bearishness. The capital markets understand socio-political influences are predominant in the first year of most incoming administrations and thus generally non-bullish with an actual demonstration of outright bearishness in presidential post election year. As the popularity of Congress and the U.S. President wane, the stock market senses a reduction in their power. That is bullish.

The Short-term Indicant continues signaling bull in spite of the market’s historical standards and current incongruence to those standards.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

As stated ten weeks ago, mortgage rates continue moving north and aggressively so, but most likely an aberration. As anticipated, they softened the past three weeks.

As stated 49-weeks ago, once the euphoria of the socialistic methods are complete, rest assured the bear market will continue and with gusto. This is not technical. This is fundamental. You will see that prognosis continuing in spite of recent bullish expressions. This cycle should endure a double dip.

As stated 45-weeks ago, “probabilities remain high that any bullish cycle will be followed by a deep bear market in 2009. If taxes are raised on the highly productive and capital gains, do not be surprised at a 1,000 Dow by 2010.” This year is two-thirds complete. The bear has been passive since early March, but it still has plenty of time to demonstrate its reflection of a souring culture. The Blue Dogs have upset this line of thinking and we will know more when Congressional behavior is demonstrated in early September.

As stated last week, on a positive note, it appears enough of the populace are influencing their political representatives to slow the progress of stupidity. If this happens, then bearish expectations of great magnitude will be muted.

Rising Near-term Indicant Green and Blue curves with bullish Vector Pressure and QTI Red Bulls offers pronounced protection against the bear. The bull is being threatened again with the impending return of Congress. Vector Pressure started shifting to the south last week, but still remains high enough to prevent the bear from dominating.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 5.2% since that sell signal. It has been bearish in 17-of the last 35-weeks. It has been bullish in 13-of the last 21-weeks but has not yet qualified for a Mid-term Indicant buy signal.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received a buy signal this weekend.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is up 0.6%, annualizing at 6.6% since its buy signal on July 31, 2009.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003. It received a sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 18.6% since that sell signal. It has been bullish in 17-of the last 26-weeks, but bearish in eight of the last 12-weeks.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It is down 35.5% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. It is down 5.2% since that sell signal.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Aug 3, 2009. It is down 1.8% since then. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since its previous buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal, but on the last cycle it did not gain similar traction as that from 2003 through 2008.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 20.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.2%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 28.2%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009. It is up 8.7% since the Near-term buy signal, annualizing at 23.6%. Gold, like oil prices, has been relatively static for several months.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled bull on July 31, 2009. The ten major indices are up by an average of 2.7% since that bull signal, annualizing at 138.2%. The 9-trillion dollars are chasing the bull upward and the Blue Dogs may be stalemating government.

Click this sentence to view a summary of their performance.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $27,116,274. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,436,372 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $132,219. That beats buy and hold’s $99,559 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $183,969. That beats buy and hold’s $69,999 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1787.8%, 32.8%, and 162.8%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 40.2% since then. It remains too risky to buy since the Near-term Indicant Bull continues resisting bearish assaults. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, current technical indicators are advising to avoid this fund until the Near-term bullish cycle expires. However, this Near-term Bull is turning into a thoroughbred and will not expire without a battle.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 226.2% (annualized at 12.6%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 931-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning. However, the Long-term Indicant is getting very close to signaling bear. A link to the Long-term Indicant is below. You will notice long-term projections are bearish.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/LTI-Markets-DJIA/DJIA.htm

The Quick/Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Overall configurations continue suggesting the bear cannot dominate at this time. Some minor indications of bullish fatigue are accelerating their assertions. One could easily surmise the bull is wary that the Congressional recess is about to conclude with a return of the anti-capitalists to work on nonsensical legislation.

The early warnings of the next bearish threat rests with the Near-term Bullish Blue Curve. As long as they move north, there is nothing to fear. Even when it collapses, Force Vector position will be telling on the seriousness of any bearish threat. Right now, neither of those two attributes are near in support of the bear. ETF#13-EWH-finally collapsed last Tuesday. Its Force Vector is in bearish domains. High Vector Pressure should pull Force Vectors back to the north. If Force Vectors falls deeper into bearish domains, the Near-term Indicant will signal sell. It is still up by 46.3% since the NTI signaled buy on March 31, 2009.

ETF#21-EWZ endured the same fate with a collapsing NTI Bullish Blue, also on last Tuesday. It remains a QTI Red Bull, but its Force Vector is galloping to the south. It remains above NTI Green and QTI Red, but barely. Its high Vector Pressure is preventing a sell signal at this time. The QTI will not signal sell until it crosses below yellow, which would require a significant bearish cycle to manifest.

The Near-term Bull is 26-weeks old. The average Near-term life cycles approximate 10-14-weeks. This does not mean they are always followed by a reversal cycle. Extended inflections can occur for several days or even weeks ahead of a renewed Near-term bull or bear cycle. This bull demonstrated dynamic responses to the bear’s influence in mid-July. If the bear does not demonstrate equal or greater magnitude in responses, this Near-term Bull will delay its expiration. So far, the bear has been silent to bullish expressions. Current configurations are offering very little encouragement to the bear, but there is a slight shift developing in favor of the bear at this time.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

All twelve major indices are bulls, including contrarian VIX. All 12-indices are up by an average of 13.1% annualizing at 57.0% since the NTI signaled bull an average of 12.0-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

Although there were no new bull signals, the Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for 11-major indices. They are up 9.8%, annualizing at 41.4%, since their bull signals an average of 12.3-weeks ago.

The lone bear, VIX, is down 29.9% since its bear signal 20.1-weeks ago. It will not receive a Quick-term Bull signal until it crosses above bearish yellow curve.

On-going attribute watch for major indices: Biases are dated at the time of observation. The next sentence advises of conditions and indicators each day, unless they are also dated.

QTI Red Bull Status-Jul 27, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven of 11-non-contrarian indices are red bulls. Sep 1, 2009-Tue-This remains true in spite of bearish aggression. Sep 2, 2009-Wed-One Red Bull perished, but the ten that remain continue support of bullish bias. Sep 4, 2009-Fri-The lost Red Bull from last Wed was regained. Solid protection against bear continues.

QTI Yellow Bear Status-Jul 23, 2009-Non-bearish bias. There are no non-contrarian yellow bears. VIX is a yellow bear.

-NTI Blue Bull Status-Sep 2, 2009-Non-bullish bias. Sep 4, 2009-Fri-A minority of five major index is a blue bull. VIX lost Blue Bull status, but maintains poise for becoming bullish. The NTI buy signal for VIX was a bit premature, but it should yield a profit within the next few weeks.

-NTI Green Bear Status-Sep 2, 2009-Non-bearish bias. All 12-major indices are above bearish green and thus non-bearish. This includes contrarian VIX, which is a bit threatening to the bull on a near-term basis.

-NTI Blue Bull Direction-Jul 22, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven of eleven non-contrarians are directionally bullish. Aug 31, 2009-VIX’s blue is also moving north, providing a hint of threat to the overall bull.

-NTI Green Bear Direction – Jul 30, 2009-Non-bearish bias. Eleven of eleven non-contrarian are directionally non-bearish. Aug 31, 2009-VIX green moving north, again providing a hint of bearish threat.

-STI Force Vector Position- Sep 2, 2009-Non-bullish bias. Aug 28, 2009-Fri-Eight of eleven non-contrarian in bullish domains. That is down by two from last Friday. Sep 1, 2009-Tue-Only one Force Vector remains in bullish domains. That is down by seven from yesterday. Sep 2, 2009-Wed-Only one Force Vector in bullish domains and it is contrarian VIX. None are in bearish domains, which is the next focal point. All, except VIX, are below Vector Pressure. Solid bulls typically respond with bullish expressions with this configuration. Bullish fatigue will be evident if there is not bullish response in the next day or two. Sep 3, 2009-Thu-Three now in bearish domains. Still a minority, but definitely discerning to the bull. Sep 4, 2009-Fri-Only VIX in bullish domains. The bull responded the past two days, but very weak, which is a further testament to increasing bullish fatigue.

-STI Force Vector Direction – Sep 3, 2009-Bearish bias; Eleven non-contrarian moving south; VIX moving north.

-Vector Pressure Position- Jul 23, 2009-Bullish bias. Eleven of eleven non-contrarian reside in bullish domains. Sep 3, 2009-NAS100 fell from bullish domains, which has been the stronger bullish performer since bull signal last March. Sep 4, 2009-The NASDAQ fell from bullish domains today, bringing the total to nine major indices in bullish domains. Nine, though, remains a significant majority.

-Vector Pressure Direction- Sep 3, 2009-Bullish bias. All non-contrarian moving south; Contrarain VIX moving north.

-Short-term Trend Sensitive Attributes

QTI-Bullish Red Curve-11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in bullish trend

QTI-Bearish Yellow Curve-11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in non-bearish trend

NTI-Bullish Blue Curve-11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in bullish trend; Contrarian VIX also in bullish trend.

NTI-Bearish Green Curve-11 of 11 Non-contrarian indices in bullish trend; Contrarian VIX also in bullish trend.

STI-Vector Pressure-All non-contrarian indices in bearish trend; Contrarian VIX in bullish trend.

-Near-term Directional Intensity - Jul 30, 2009-Bullish unanimity remains with all NTI Bullish Blue and Bearish Green Rising, but under bearish threat since there is a minority of non-contrarian Blue Bulls.

-Political Climate – Congress returning to work after labor day, which is non-bullish for the stock market.

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in this table on the website, as opposed to listing here. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when, but odds still favor later this year or early next year. Much of this depends on political influences. There will be some unfavorable influences. There always is. The question is, when? As long as the aforementioned attributes are suggesting bullishness and non-bearishness, the bull will continue dominance.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. There is one chart containing both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant.

As stated for several days, the NYSE and NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicators are no longer configuring with potential robustness. Volume’s decline is seasonal.

Sep 1, 2009-Tue-Volume was relatively high on bearish aggression. The Volume Indicators nudged slightly to the north, suggesting the bear may be coming out of hibernation. If the Indicant Volume Indicators configure with robust support for the bear, sell signals will be more aggressive than there were last July when the bear threatened.

Sep 2, 2009-Wed-Flat market and flat volume should lead to increased volatility and a friendlier time for being on the right side of options.

Sep 3, 2009-Thu-Declining volume is not supportive of today’s mild bullishness.

Sep 4, 2009-Fri-Light volume offers limited obviations of impending directional intensity.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant- Aug 31, 2009-Mon- The bear will remain uninvolved as long as the NTI and QTI continue expressing bullish unanimity. Sep 1, 2009-Tue-Today’s bearish expression did not disrupt NTI/QTI bullish unanimity. Watch Force Vectors. If they dip into bearish domains and recoil back to the north, but not cross above Vector Pressure for a sustainable period, the bear will be significantly encouraged. This should transpire within the next two weeks. Sep 2, 2009-Wed-Same as yesterday; none of the NTI bullish blue curves have collapsed and Force Vectors have not penetrated bearish domains. Interestingly, VIX’s Force Vector has penetrated bullish domains, suggesting the bear is preparing for a major attack. It will be interesting to see if the bull remains passive to this bearish intrusion. Sep 3, 2009-Thu-Indicators are weakening in support of the bull. Congress is returning to session next week and thus non-bullish. Sep 4, 2009-Fri-Although the Short-term Indicant bullish attributes are weakening, they have not shifted into support of the bear.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

Although there were no buy signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 11.1%, annualizing at 56.1%, since their buy signals an average of 10.3-weeks ago. Although there were no sell signals, the NTI is avoiding one ETF; contrarian QID. It is down by 6.0% since its sell signal 6.1-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 30-ETF’s. They are up an average of 14.0% since their buy signals an average of 14.0-weeks ago. Those with hold signals are annualizing at 52.1%. Although there were no sell signals, the lone avoided ETF, QID, is down by 44.1% since its sell signal on Mar 26, 2009.

Quick-term Red Bulls significantly reduce the threat of dynamic and sustainable bearish behavior. As long as there are Quick-term Red Bulls, one does not have to worry about bearish dominance. Breadth protection improved from only 5-red bulls 39-trading days ago to 28-red bulls today. This is a significant non-bearish configuration with respect to disallowing dynamic behavior on the immediate horizon. This remains in effect in spite of bearish aggression earlier this week and the impending return of Congressmen to Washington D.C.

Vector Pressure in bullish domains is also a bear depressant. There are 18-ETF’s with this bullish and non-bearish configuration. There remains no dynamic bearish threat with sustainable duration at this time. Vector Pressure protection against the bear is deteriorating slightly. Two dropped out of bullish domains earlier this week and three more today, but still significantly non-bearish. The battle is on between bull and bear with Vector Pressure attempting to pull up Force Vectors and Force Vectors attempting to drag down Vector Pressure.

Force Vectors are configuring with normalcy. Favorable probabilities of bearish aggression have shifted from late August to mid September after Congress returns and with enough lead time to legislate continuing stupidity. If Congress behaves like communists, the bear will be aroused. Even with that, though, no sell signals will occur until prices interact with NTI green curves, which are moving north.

Near-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes

14-NTI Blue Bulls, down from 26 last week is increasingly non-bullish, but 10-gained today.

27-NTI Blue Curves are still sloping north and thus remain supportive of the NTI Bull. However that is down from 30 in the last eight trading days.

29-NTI Green Curves are still sloping north, expressing non-bearishness.

The Short-term Indicant ETF Key Attributes:

3-Force Vectors are in bullish domains, providing minimal bullish support.

18-Vector Pressures remain in bullish domains, supporting the bull, but down by three from 10-days ago. Vector Pressure is more important than Force Vectors.

4-Vector Pressures are moving in a bullish direction, supporting the bull, but down from 25 last Tuesday. This is a significant drop, but still supportive of bull, based on being in bullish domains. The bear is obviously attempting to influence.

Sep 2, 2009-Wed-Overall ETF synergy remains in favor of the bull, but increasingly weakening.

Sep 3, 2009-Thu-Same as yesterday.

Sep 4, 2009-Fri-Same as last Wednesday.

Click the below link to see today’s Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant signals. Links on that page will take you to a single chart with all the model’s position on each ETF.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-SQI-QTI-ETF-SumPage/0UD%20QTI-ETF0-Sum.htm

Contrarian Funds

ProFunds Ultra Short mutual fund moves inversely to the QQQQ by exponential amounts. See the Mid-term Indicant for its status.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on Jul 23, 2009. It is down 6.0% since that sell signal. The Near-term Indicant is on the verge of signaling buy. It would like to see Force Vector penetrate bullish domains. Its Vector Pressure, like that of TLT, is rising very slowing from bearish domains, which is bullish for those funds.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for QID on March 26, 2009. It is down 44.1% since then. The Quick-term Indicant will not signal buy until it contacts the bearish yellow curve, which is valued at $36.11 and still falling.

ETF#03-Natural Resources - The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on August 3, 2009. It is down 1.8% since those buy signals. Force Vector is again declining, but Vector Pressure is too high for bearish aggression to manifest. It also lost Red Bull status on Aug 31, 2009 and may receive a sell signal in the next day or two, depending on Force Vector behavior.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 20.9% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 28.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $86.79 and still rising.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 24, 2009. It is up 8.7% since then, annualizing at 23.6%.

After several weeks of laziness, Gold was solidly bullish the past three days. It is a QTI Red Bull and a NTI Blue Bull. That suggests a real safe holding position.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal on Aug 17, 2009 from both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant. This buy signal was triggered by rule, its price moved above NTI Blue and Green and QTI Yellow with Force Vectors penetrating bullish domains. It is up 0.5% since that buy signal, annualizing at 10.1%. It will be difficult for this hold to produce profitability as long as the market is bullish. However, a small stock market bearish spurt could help it along. It is configuring with strong bullishness; erratic Force Vector behavior in bullish domains and rising Vector Pressure are solid bullish configurations.

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Sep 4, 2