September 2011 Weekly Stock Market Reports

Sep 25, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 09, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

No Buy Signals Again

Since Jul 27, 2011, there has only been one buy signal by the Mid-term Indicant. That pales in comparison to 94-sell signals since then. That is an unusually high number of sell signals during presidential pre-election years.

All of the major indices are down for the year. If they close the year out with a bearish conclusion, you will witness history. The DJIA, for example, has not endured a bearish presidential pre-election year since 1939.

The heart and soul of bullish seasonality offers some mild hope it will manifest on schedule this year. There is reason to expect this. The Dow Jones Utilities Index did not endure a bear signal in last week’s dynamic bearish behavior, which was the most bearish week since Oct 2008.

Click this sentence to view the Dow Utilities’ Mid-term Indicant chart. You will notice that it was not that bearish last week. Although it has been the laziest bull since the bull leg originated in March 2009, it has also been the most stable of the major indices. Only one of the components has endured a sell signal this year. Click this sentence to review the status of the components to the Dow Utilities. As you can see, there are only two avoided stocks in that group with only one receiving a Mid-term Indicant sell signal on Aug 19, 2011. That is DJU#05-AES.

The other avoided utility stock is DJU#13-EXC. It endured its last sell signal on Oct 3, 2008. As you can see, it is down 29.5% since then. It never recovered from the 2008 bear market. Notice that sell signal occurred in early October, which is a common month for stock market drama.

October is a month whereby strong bullish and bearish behavior occurs. Politicians are still orating. When harmless, the stock market bull explodes. When damaging, the stock market bear implodes. October is rarely staid.

Many of you recall how the Dow Utilities was the last major index to collapse in 2008. It continued with bullish attributes after most of the other major indices demonstrated the bear’s wrath in 2008. Utilities enjoy an advantage other companies do not. They can simply turn off the power to a non-paying mortgagee. That reduces their variable costs while it is a motivator for a troubled mortgagee to pay their utility bills. Unfortunately, though, utilities need volume to cover extensive fixed costs. Therefore, utility companies are a natural laggard to troubling economic conditions.

Keep your eyes on the Utilities the next few weeks. The Short-term Indicant tracks the DJU. It received a bear signal last Thursday, but it is not a short-term Yellow Bear. As long as Utilities does not become a short-term Yellow Bear, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality has a good chance of manifestation. That usually occurs in October. You will detect this when the Short-term Indicant generates a large number of buy signals for both the near-term and quick-term cycles. However, if the avoid signals continue and the Dow Utilities becomes a Yellow Bear along the short-term cycle, anticipate dynamic bearishness and the first pre-election year bear market since 1939.

The dilettante infested S&P100 Index is of concern along the short-term cycle. It is the weakest among them all. It, among other major indices, is a short-term Yellow Bear. However, until Utilities joins them as a Yellow Bear do not be too concerned about a long-lasting and dynamic bear market, where none of the major indices enjoys immunity from major onslaughts by the stock market bear. The S&P100 is also nearing Yellow Bear status along the Mid-term cycle. It is barely above the MTI Bearish Yellow curve. Keep your eye on this, as well. Yellow Bears, along the mid-term cycle are difficult for the stock market bull to overcome.

In essence, until you see all the major indices as Yellow Bears along the short-term and mid-term cycles, do not expect a long-lasting and dynamic bear market. On the other hand, if that does occur, expect the worse from a stock market and economic perspective.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

The NAS100’s largest gainer last week was NAS#52-CELG. It was up a paltry 2.7%. However, it has bragging rights as most in this group of stocks fell sharply to the south. It is up 13.7% since the MTI buy signal in Sep 2010. The biggest loser was NAS#43-JOYG. It was down 20.1% last week. It is up 74.9% since the MTI buy signal in Jul 2009.

ISTK#38-ENER was that group’s biggest gainer. It was up a whopping 13.8%, while most other energy related stocks were down sharply. It is one of those Wall Street snake deals. It is down 97.7% since the MTI sell signal in Oct 2008. It did not participate in the 2009-2011 bull market. ISTK#66-FLEX was the biggest loser in this group of stocks, falling 23.5% last week. It was up nearly that amount two weeks ago, but lost all of that phony gain this past week. It is down 5.8% since the Aug 19, 2011 sell signal.

One Dow stock increased last week, while the other twenty-nine moved bearishly. The gainer was DOW#26-INTC. It was up meekly by 0.9%. Although Intel has been drifting bearishly for several years, it is up 17.8% since the MTI buy signal in Sep 2010. The biggest loser was DOW#01-AA-Alcoa. It dropped 15.9% last week and is down 31.6% since the MTI signaled sell on Jul 29, 2011. Alcoa participated in the 2009-2011 stock market bull, but most of that participation occurred with it being a Yellow Bear.

The Dow Utilities Index remains bullish. It was not that bearish last week, while most of the other indices endured their largest weekly declines since October 2008. This group’s biggest gainer was DJU#07-PCG. It was up 1.2%. It is up 6.6% since the MTI buy signal in Jul 2009, albeit with disappointing performance levels. The biggest loser was DJU#05-AES. It was down 10.8% last week. It is down 3.0% since the MTI sell signal on Aug 19, 2011.

Mutual Funds behaved like stocks last week, as the stock market endured dynamic bearishness. The biggest loser was MF#09-SSGRX, which reflected energy sector bearishness. It was down a whopping 18.1% last week. It is now a Yellow Bear. Consequently, it received an MTI sell signal this weekend. The biggest gainer was contrarian MF#22-USPIX. It was up 8.7% last week. Although configured bullishly, it is difficult to signal buy in the usually bullish pre-election year. It is down 76.1% since the MTI sell signal in the normally bullish post election year, 2009.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and 12-sell signals. This brings the total number of sell signals to 91-since Aug 5, 2011. That is an unusual number of sell signals for the normally bullish pre-election year. This is due to the movement toward communism by politicians, which is inconsistent with normal political behavior during pre-election years, where wealth building use to be a sure fire way to get votes for reelection. Unfortunately, a near majority of Americans has their hands-out, as the half-life of a once great country has passed.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 189 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 60.4%. That annualizes to 34.7%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 189-stocks and funds for an average of 90.5-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 134-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 19.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 49.9-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Sep 24, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 218-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 49.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 40.8% (annualized at 39.7%). There were 87-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 40.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 97.8-weeks earlier one year ago. There were ten-buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 187-stocks and funds of the 333-tracked two years ago on Sep 25, 2009. They were up by an average of 20.8%, annualized at 54.5%, since their respective buy signals an average of 19.9-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 129-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 39.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 77.6-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal in addition to the 143-buy signals in the prior nine weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued losing dominance at this time in 2009 along the mid-term cycle.

There were 102stocks and funds with hold signals on Sep 19, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 147.8-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 165.4% (annualized at 58.2%). There were 232-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 14.4% from their respective sell signals an average of 26.4-weeks earlier. There were eleven-sell signals on this weekend in 2008, adding to the 455-sell signals in the prior 45-weeks, as the bear market was now maturing at this point in 2008, but still incomplete in its final destruction. There were no buy signals on this weekend in 2008.

On Sep 15, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 253-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 156.4% (annualized at 64.7%) since their buy signals an average of 125.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 62-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 9.2% since their sell signals an average of 23.0-weeks earlier. There were 30-buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2007. The Mid-term bull cycle was beginning to struggle at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies.

Five years ago, on Sep 22, 2006, there were 307-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 96.8% (annualized at 66.9%) since their respective buy signals an average of 75.3-weeks earlier. There were 37-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 15.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 19.6-weeks earlier. There was one-buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid for the most part in 2006.

On Sep 23, 2005, there were 231-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 104.1%, annualizing at 58.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 92.6-weeks earlier. There were 86-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 10.3% since their sell signals an average of 23.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and nine sell signals on this weekend in 2005.

There were 205-stocks and funds with hold signals on Sep 24, 2004. They were up by an average of 69.3%, annualizing at 64.1%, since their buy signals 56.3-weeks earlier. The 90-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 28.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 47.0-weeks earlier. There were no-buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2004. The 2004-meandering bear market that pestered throughout most of 2004 continued its abatement process at this time.

On Sep 26, 2003, there were 219-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 51.8% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 30.0-weeks earlier. That annualized at 89.6%. There were only 16-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 25.0% since their sell signals an average of 30.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were three-buy signals in addition to 318-buy signals in the prior 27-weeks. There were 58-sell signals on this weekend in 2003, as the stock market concluded its classical late summer sell-off. The 2003 bull market was 30-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Sep 27, 2002, there were 61-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 17.4% since their buy signals an average of 20.0-weeks earlier, annualizing at 45.3%. There were 213-stocks and funds avoided since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 9.6-weeks earlier. There were three-buy signals in addition to 215-buy signals in the prior nine weeks. Although the stock market bear remained in effect, it was beginning to display weakness. Some of the Aug buy signals retained hold signals through late 2007 and early 2008, while several others were reversed with sell signals before the conclusion of calendar year 2002. Energy related buy signals in Aug 2002, however, held strongly through the December 2002-record-bear and lasted until late 2008. There were 15-sell signals on this weekend when normal September stock market bearishness occurred.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

As repeatedly stated, do not hold more than 10% of your investment resources in a single stock and do not hold more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Also, never fall in love with a stock or fund. Only love the value of your portfolio. Never love its contents. Management stupidity can wreak havoc on any stock or fund at any time. Socio-economic interference can devastate your holdings from time to time. Governmental and political behavior can have immediate and long-lasting unfavorable influences on the capital markets.

Some companies will perform well, regardless of the depth of stock market bears. Buy signals will be muted if Congressional action threatens the capital markets. Legislation, regulation, and politicians are the biggest threat to the stock market bull and the related quality of life for the productive and honest.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Bull and Bear Signals This Weekend

The NASDAQ100 Index joined the Dow Utilities, while all other remaining major indices remain as bears.” Utilities continued resistance to bearish ambition suggests the heart and soul of bullish seasonality will be normal this year. This usually occurs in late September or early October. Current configurations were discussed earlier in this report, which indicate the heart and soul of bullish seasonality is not quite ready to dominate.

There are ample reasons to be guarded on potential bearish aggression at this time.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 5% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the lesser value of 5% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences. Those stop losses are visible to floor traders and subject to a bit of unfairness to you and to their benefit.

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

The ETF’s are signaled on the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant and are updated daily. These shorter-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts and rallies, while the Mid-term Indicant is focused on fundamentals and longer-term technical data.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 47.8% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 122.9% and the S&P500 is up 46.3% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 109.6% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011 in spite of recent bearishness and souring economic news. However, as stated last week, recent bearish behavior may not have yet ended this year. The overall market endured its largest drop since Oct 2008 this past week.

The NASDAQ is down 50.8% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 25.6% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 8.1% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish for the last eleven years.

If socialism expands, the NASDAQ may not hit its 2000 peak until after 2050 and that depends on a resumption of entrepreneurial support by politicians. Significant downsizing of federal governments and related regulatory shrinkage will stimulate a reassessment of the previous sentence. If the opposite occurs with increasing federal bureaucracies, the NASDAQ will never return to its 2000 peak. Look at the resumes of intellectual elites who argue against these points. You will detect they are pure economic leeches arguing on behalf of such regulations, which is a source of their livelihoods. None has ever produced anything of value.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 42.4% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 39.2% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 42.4%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 5.8% from that year’s meandering bear market, but finished up by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 2.7% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up by 0.6% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 10.6% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 18.8% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 35.2% on this weekend in 2009 and finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 2.6% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 7.0% this year. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are down 9.6% and 6.4%, respectively. This contrasts, sharply, with historical standards. The last bearish pre-election year was in 1939. Keep in mind FDR and Mussolini were pals ahead of WWII and FDR need a good war to work out of his ridiculous policies that drove the Dirty-30’s. We need to wonder who the current administration is pals with.

The Dow is down 24.0% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 13.1% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 27.4% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. This coincides with political coziness in Washington D.C.

Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 twleve weeks ago. That was the second time this year such accomplishment has been enjoyed. However, comfort by capital markets eclipsing 2007 cyclical peaks remains elusive. Bearish aggression in five of the past seven weeks clearly demonstrate repulsions to bettering 2007 peak prices. However, the NASDAQ100 Index crossed above its Oct 31, 2007 high two weeks ago, but again did not find comfort in doing so with last week’s dynamic bearishness. It is now down 1.4% from that peak.

The NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago. It, along with other major indices similar behavior, retreated below those peaks. Several indices have never challenged those peak prices. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 29.8% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak and nearing Yellow Bear status. As you can see from recent stock market behavior, suspicions about the 2009-2011 bull leg had merit. The reason for those suspicions was near maximal incongruence between political leadership and the underlying principles of capital markets. The Dec 12, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

Most major last cyclical bottoms occurred on March 9, 2009. That includes the four major Dow Indices, the NASDAQ and all of the major S&P Indices. The only exception is the NASDAQ100. It encountered its last weekly cyclical bottom on November 20, 2008.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view, albeit mildly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. If prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

The Dow is up 64.5% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 95.7% and the S&P500 is up 68.0% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 96.9% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Such a successor bear cycle is now underway, although not expected to continue as Washington DC has a propensity to stalemate.

The bull cycle, originating in March 2009, is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the four-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. It takes a while for the newly elected to follow their paths of corruption and learn the ease of spending other people’s money. The stock market bull takes advantage during such phenomena. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull discontinued expressing its delight in that the past several weeks with heightened political chatter.

Political behavior is favoring the stock market bull in the long-run with pressure to reduce government waste. Anticipating that is bullish, even though the short-term and mid-term cycles are not supportive of the bull at this time. A potential of defaults by Greece and other European countries, promoting and catering to laziness, add to threats to the stock market bull. The Standard and Poor’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating adds new threats to the stock market bull. On the contrary, though, Spain has legislated balanced budget requirements, which supports the idea of a bullish theme. The problem is how plastic political agreements are.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets both free and controlled are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As you have seen the past few weeks, the potential for a massive and long-lasting bear is possible, as dilettantes, worldwide continue converting their currencies to meaningless expressions. Interestingly, an “instinctive” resistance to this is manifesting, which could obsolete the previous sentence.

As promised by Bernanke in late 2008, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value. Bernanke continues with his promise of more of the same for through 2012. Policy settings typically remain fixed during the second half of a president’s term. That stability is why the historical record clearly demonstrates stock market bullishness from the mid-term election year through the election year.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. They have been yielding zero for the past seven weeks.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 36-weeks ago. It lost that Red Bull status this past week with a sharp drop against the greenback.

The Canadian dollar also weakened severely this past week, while the Japanese Yen remained strong and continued strengthening this past week. The CA$ moved in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) four weeks ago. It is now above Red, which threatens its cycle of strengthening. The Japanese yen remains extraordinarily strong.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. It is trading well above the 2012 yearend forecast at above $1800/oz. Its recent bullish behavior is indeed impressive, while it was solidly bearish the past two weeks, but nowhere near collapsing. The $2,000/oz.-forecast by 2014 remains challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains intact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild, but with deepening bearish bias. It fell below yellow eight weeks ago on souring economic news. It remains as a Yellow Bear.

Commodity prices continue falling from their recent record highs due to souring economic forecast. Most are no longer Red Bulls. Their potential contribution to inflationary pressures remains absent, as most are now Yellow Bears.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures fell prey to bearish economic pressures the past few weeks. It is approaching Yellow Bear status.

Commodity prices, overall, were bearish in sixteen of the last 21-weeks. Souring economic forecasts continue dampening commodities bullish cycle. Current configurations are no longer expecting a bullish surge. Most are without much volatility and trading in the neutral zone.

Mortgage rates are moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011. After falling sharply seven weeks ago on souring economic news, they enjoyed a nice bullish bounce five weeks ago, but down the past three weeks.

The consumer price index and producer price index continue to be relatively stable. That should change in the next few months, depending on economic activity. High unemployment will continue to contribute to non-inflationary tendencies.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and currently non-threatening toward inflation or deflation.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received an MTI buy signal on Jul 22, 2011. It is down 9.5% since that buy signal. If Force falls into bearish domains, it will receive a sell signal.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It again endured a sell signal last week. Peak oil must be a dead issue for the time being.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 3.5%, annualized at 3.4%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell this weekend after falling significantly this past week.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, was up 81.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on August 16, 2003 and the sell signal on October 3, 2008. After a few disappointing buy/sell cycles since late 2008, the Mid-term Indicant again signaled, buy, on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 7.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 6.8%.

The Quick-term and Near-term signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 2, 2011. It is down 11.4% since those sell signals. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. It was up over 25.0%, annualized at 29.0% from its Quick-term buy signal on Sep 15, 2010 and the Quick-term sell signal on Aug 8, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 98.1% since that buy signal, annualizing at 34.8%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy on Jul 6, 2011. It was about 10% until the NTI signaled sell this past Friday.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There was no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The two indices retaining the bull signals are the DJU and NAS100. Combined, they are up 10.3% since their bull signals an average of 53.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 10.1%.

The remaining major indices with bear signals are down by an average of 6.0% since their bear signals on Aug 5, 2011 with nearly all of that bearish performance occurring last week.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $30,015,060. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,638,746 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $141,743. That beats buy and hold’s $111,316 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $216,610. That beats buy and hold’s $86,104 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,731.6%, 27.3%, and 151.6%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The advantage changes only during bear signals. That is because the buy and hold model has to keep holding, while the Mid-term Indicant model avoids bear markets. The only purpose of the Mid-term Indicant model is to avoid bear markets. That is why it beat buy and hold by approximately 2,000% covering the past 100+ years. It will not be surprising to see the Mid-term Indicant outperform buy and hold by over 3,000% before the end of this decade. The stock market did not succumb to the bear during the post-election year, 2009.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 76.1% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund. This fund is configured, bullishly, but heavily weighted to avoid during pre-election years. The Short-term Indicant signaled buy this weekend for its cousin, QID.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 272.1% (annualized at 13.6%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,038-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

The Indicant website maintains the last twelve months of daily reports on an annual basis. These weekly reports are maintained on the website for much longer periods. Beginning in March 2006, the daily stock market report for the last trading day of each week is included in this weekly report. This allows web-based retention records of the daily report for much longer than the last twelve months. This report is in the next section and a mere repeat of the daily report you received on the last trading day of the week, which is usually on Friday evening or Saturday afternoon.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

The following theme will be repeated until stock market configurations obsolete it and despite potential boredom of repeating it.

Chaotic divergence reflects aggressively configured short-term attributes favoring both bull and bear. Here are a few examples. ETF#13-EWH-Hongkong endures Force in bearish domains with negative Pressure. It is a QTI Yellow Bear and NTI Green Bear. Currently, there is no floor to bearish ambition and underlying forces and pressure is weak. It is down 10.5% since short-term sell signals on Sep 2, 2011. ETF#01-QQQ, on the other hand, still has bullish attributes; albeit under attack. It is up 1.9%, annualizing at 24.7%, since its Aug 26, 2011 short-term buy signals.

These conditions also describe the absence of bullish or bearish unanimity, which is required for cyclical magnitude and breadth. Until this changes, it is what it is.

The stock market bear, however, retains significant advantages.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Index Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and one new bear. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull only for contrarian VIX. It is up 79.5%, annualizing at 499.7%. The NAS100 Force Vector fell into bearish domains and below Pressure on Friday with price falling below NTI Blue.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for ten major non-contrarian indices. They are down by an average of 3.6% since their bear signals an average of 1.1-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for one major non-contrarian index, NAS100, including contrarian VIX. Collectively, they are up 39.4% since their bull signals an average of 5.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 345.3%.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for ten non-contrarian indices. They are down by an average of 5.5% since their bear signals an average of 3.3-weeks ago.

The NAS100 continues with bull signal. It is not yet a Yellow Bear, while several attributes shifted in favor of a bearish near-term cycle. The DJU is also not a Yellow Bear, but it endured a bear signal this past Thursday.

Indicant Volume Indicators

Both major indices are robustly in high interest domains. That cyclical robustness coincides with bearish aggression, supporting bearish bias. Sustainable bullish behavior requires robustness in conjunction with bullish attributes along the short-term cycle. That remains absent, albeit with a brief surge in volume on Sep 14, 2011 that aligned with a strong bullish expression. This does not obviate a sustainable bull, but most new bull baby steps begin in this manner. The cycle of suspense and drama ahead of the heart and soul of bullish seasonality remain incomplete, but recently favoring more bearish drama.

Sep 23-Fri-Mildly aggressive volume on mild bullishness offers no evidence of change from a stock market bear.

Sep 22-Thu-Aggressive volume on dynamic bearish behavior supports the stock market bear in addition to the bear/avoid signals.

Sep 21-Wed-Aggressive volume on significant bearish behavior supports bear/avoid signals.

Sep 20-Tue-Mediocre volume on a bearishly concluding trading day again offers limited threats to the short-term stock market bull.

Sep 19-Mon-Moderate volume, coupled to significant intraday stock market bearish behavior, does not offer additional threat to underlying short-term bull cycle. Please read on.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for six-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 19.3% since their buy signals an average of 3.1-weeks ago, annualizing at 319.9%. The reason performance is high is due to a mild mix of non-contrarian and contrarian ETF’s, where contrarians, such as VXX, remain extraordinarily bullish.

The NTI is avoiding 24-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 5.5% since their near-term sell signals an average of 2.0-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 7-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 23.5% since their buy signals an average of 24.4-weeks ago. This annualizes at 50.2%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 25-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 8.2% since the QTI sell signals an average of 4.6-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2011. It is down 11.4% since those sell signals. Price remains below NTI Blue. Force remains depressed. Those two configured attributes prevent a buy signal.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 98.1% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 34.8%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $145.52 and still rising. Relaxation is in order since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $159.80.

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell on Friday after the market closed. GLD fell by approximately $10/share. Price fell below NTI Green and Force continues falling deeper in bearish domains. The near-term cycle is bearish.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal on Fri, Jul 29, 2011 from the Quick-term Indicant model. It is up 23.4% since that buy signal, annualizing at 150.4%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 2, 2011. It is up 7.4% since then, annualizing at 126.8%. Force and price skyrocketed this past Thursday.

ETF#31-QID received a buy signal by the Near-term Indicant on Friday after the market closed. Force again climbed into bullish domains. However, the Quick-term Indicant retained the avoid signal from the Sep 14, 2011 sell signal. It is up 3.4% since then. It needs to cross above the QTI Yellow curve to garnish a buy signal.

The Quick-term signaled buy for ETF#32-VXX on Aug 8, 2011. It is up 44.7% since then, annualizing at 350.1%. It is up 111.2% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 28, 2011, annualizing at 702.0%. This ETN will be abandoned once the stock market stabilizes, as its tracking to VIX is unreliable. However, current performance levels suggest some difficulty in its abandonment.

Major ETF Events

Sep 23-Fri-Same as yesterday despite Friday’s mild bullish behavior by the overall stock market.

Sep 22-Thu-The bear gained more momentum with more bear/sell signals.

Sep 21-Wed-There were several more sell signals and a few more bear signals.

Sep 20-Tue-Dow Transports and S&P400 endured near-term bear signals with Force shifting to the south with negative pressure attracting it.

Sep 19-Mon-Greece is again in the news and continues to pester the stock market’s bullish inclinations.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Sep 23, 2011-Chaotic divergence is increasing with some ETF’s with solid bearish configurations, while others are with solid bullish configurations along the short-term cycle. This is not the time to be an aggressive buyer. The stock market bear is gaining momentum.

Reverse Tangential Projections

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections. The problem is not knowing when. The stock market is now in the heart and soul of bullish seasonality. The bear will have difficulty manifesting with the shifting political cycles.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed bullish convergence two of the past seven week. That interrupted four consecutive weeks of combined bearish convergence/divergence, which is a solid bearish configuration. Bearish convergence was endured this past week and it was dynamic.

Indicant Conclusion

The stock market continues demonstrating an inability to exceed 2007 peak levels. After passing above 2007’s peak last week, the NAS100 again shied away from those levels with solid bearish behavior this past week. Technically, the question remains, “are corporations in better position for growth now than then?” The obvious answer is “no.” The current economic environment is not going to foment revenue increases. Corporate profitability is a function of cost cutting and work force reductions. The stock market bull desires revenue increases that couple to bottom line increases.

The good news, though, is that none of the major indices are Yellow Bears, but the weakest index, S&P100, is nearing that level. Just as the 2009-2011 was a “suspicious” bull, the current bear market can be viewed with some suspicion until such time, all the major indices are Yellow Bears.

Rising interest rates and/or inflationary threats may manifest in coming weeks/months. The stock market bear will not wait for those manifestations. Corporate profits will take a back seat to those two threats if they indeed manifest.

The Mid-term Indicant continues signaling bear for most of the indices in spite of last week’s bullish behavior.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

09/25/2011

Sep 18, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 09, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Stock Market Drama vs. the Heart and Soul of Bullish Seasonality

The heart and soul of bullish seasonality has not yet started in spite of last week’s strong stock market bullishness. The NASDAQ100 received a bull signal, though. That is because it became a Red Bull and Force crossed into bullish domains. The only concern with this index is that Force remains below Pressure. If Force can hold in bullish domains for a week or two and cross above Pressure, then much of what follows in this section of the report may be inappropriate. Regardless, though, it is important to highlight some concerns and explain the reason for the absence of Mid-term Indicant buy signals this weekend.

Bullish unanimity remains absent along the Mid-term cycle, even though that is approaching attainment along the Short-term cycle. Sustainable bulls never occur without bullish unanimity. So, we’re looking for that along the short-term and mid-term cycles. Even the NASDAQ Index did not receive a Mid-term Indicant bull signal this weekend despite its strong bullish behavior along the short-term cycle. Its Force Vector along the mid-term cycle remains in bearish domains, although moving nicely to the north.

This is not forecasting a bear market. Stock market forecasting is a waste of time. Achieving accuracy is for the lucky. Unfortunately, the lucky endure both, the good and bad, with mostly bad. However, in spite of not forecasting, current configurations remain bearish along the mid-term cycle. In other words, do not be surprised at a classical October surprise.

Take a look at the bluest of the blue chips; the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Although boring most of the time, it is configured very similarly to most of the Mutual Funds that continue with avoid signals. That is why there were no buy signals by the Mid-term Indicant this past weekend. Take a close look at the DJIA chart.

Notice the small rise in the shorter-term blue curve. A bull signal cannot occur until index values cross above that blue curve. It can rise early, making it a bit more difficult for the underlying price or index values to cross above it. That minimizes victimization by bullish spurts. Most of the other indices and mutual funds endure a similar configuration. Thus, there were no buy signals this weekend.

Notice the Dow’s Force Vector. Although Force is increasing nicely, it is doing so in bearish domains. By virtue of remaining in bearish domains, a bull signal cannot be triggered. Most of the mutual funds, along the mid-term cycle, are configured, similarly, and thus no buy signals. Many stocks are also encumbered with similar configurations.

Force Vectors must cross into bullish domains and/or cross above Vector Pressure with prices eclipsing the shorter-term blue curve. Until those conditions are met, bear/avoid signals will persist.

Configurations remain with non-bullish to outright bearish attributes. Even the most historically bullish among the major indices, the S&P600, continues enduring a solid bearish configuration. Take a close look at its chart. Notice that the S&P600 remains below the shorter-term green curve. Also, notice that the short-term blue curve has not even elevated with its continuing southerly direction. That is a solid bearish configuration and more important than last week’s bullish bounce. It is impossible to consider non-bearishness with that configuration even though it is not yet a Yellow Bear. Although the MTI Yellow curve offers a floor to bearish aggressions, its current configuration does not discourage contact with the MTI Yellow curve. There is no point enduring that risk with heightened political noise and Europe playing monopoly with Greece, Spain, and others that are soaked with economic stupidity.

The U.S. economy is not that great. Unemployment statistics continue to offer potential for stock market depression. Last week’s unemployment report did not trigger a bearish reaction. On the contrary, there was a bullish behavior pointing to European policy makers. However, Europe is irrelevant to short-term bullish aspirations. All of this suggests, the stock market’s rebound appears to be a mere technical adjustment, as opposed to one of fundamental substance.

Some stocks were qualified for buy signals, but the absence of mutual fund buy signals prevented stock buying, which are much more volatile than funds. Although an October bearish expression would not punish all of these stocks, the potential of impending punishment could be profound for most of them. In other words, probabilistic risks significantly exceed probabilistic reward with current configurations.

Here are a few fundamental reasons for anticipating an October surprise and/or avoiding the potential risks.

As earlier stated, the U.S. economy is not robust enough to support strong bullishness at this time. There is little reason to anticipate a significant improvement, but keep in mind, the heart and soul of bullish seasonality does not always need economic robustness to manifest its annual bullishness. So, there is little reason to doubt its eventual manifestation, but not this week.

Politician’s involvement with Solyndra may invoke criminal charges at very high levels. Although arresting politicians and putting them in jail would usually be very bullish, this is not the case when at very high levels along the shorter-term cycles.

Keep in mind, taxpayers lost $500,000,000 on that “investment.” That is the new term conveyed by contemporary politicians. Interestingly, their successful usage of that term highlights an ever increasing stupidity index for those who vote for them. Every time you hear a politician use the word, investment, make certain your three pound-brain converts that to “waste.” That is all a politician can do with your money except for defense spending and even then, a significant portion is wasted. Investment and waste will never be synonyms.

Even more critical is LightSquared getting favored treatment by the FCC. Apparently, billionaire hedge fund manager, Philip Falcone, is in the process of “being reimbursed” by politicians for significant campaign contributions to the Democratic Party. The FCC is expediting approval to implement G4 networking grids, at the risk of national security and exposing dysfunctional communications by commercial aircraft. This is apparently being done in favor of Falcone’s primary holding, LightSquared.

Four-star general William Shelton, head of the Air Force Space Command, was asked by unknown sources within the Whitehouse to modify congressional testimony that would favor LightSquared’s rapid passage through the FCC approval process. Although it is unknown who asked the general to modify his testimony, one in his position, making such a claim, is either a lunatic or some heads will roll? Odds favor the latter. Jeopardizing national security in the political game is certainly bearish. That would show, even beyond what is normally believed, how evil politicians can be for their own self-gain. Reports suggest that even commercial aircraft would be jeopardized. If true, a dismantling of the U.S. government at the highest level would be bearish in the short-term, albeit with longer-term bullishness. The good news about politicians is that one group of corrupt beings do not like another group of corrupt beings in their circles.

Although all politicians are corrupt in one way or another, corruptive practices on a large scale can be unsettling to the stock market.

Although cash flow as a percentage of shareholder equity is the predominant influence on a stock price, sell any stock where politicians are connected. Cash infusions from the government will always conclude in waste and disappointment. Such companies cannot perform. They waste energy on the wrong purpose of hobnobbing with politicians. They have a propensity to bankrupt, if for no other reason, the presence of politicians and those who like them and use them. E.g., AIG, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Chrysler (twice), GM/UAW, and now, Solyndra.

Infrastructure spending is a political game. That is all it is. The bridge that collapsed in Minnesota reflected civic incompetence. On the contrary, Spain spent a bundle on infrastructure several years ago and now endures 20% unemployment with zero utilization of many of those assets. Zero utilization of assets is pure waste. Rest assured that politicians cannot resolve unemployment over the long-term. Only capitalists do that. Populations believing in political solutions to employment will endure longer and deeper hardship in doing so. The stock market may find that bearish. Over 50% of Americans believe Obama’s job plan is a good one. The stock market has not adjusted to that. If and when it does, the adjustment will be bearish.

Finally, Greece has been pestering the capital markets for over a year. A weak economy, coupled to international and domestic economic stupidity, will eventually overrule games like monopoly among European leadership. The stock market has been responding bullishly to European noise only to be followed by European reality for over a year. Until that reality manifests favorable economic substance, expect more of the same.

As you can see, there is ample potential for a classical October surprise. Now is not the time to aggressively, buy. The heart and soul of bullish seasonality is not due to start for about five more weeks. Waiting for that may be worthwhile. If configurations suggests earlier than that, the Indicant will advise.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

The NASDAQ100’s biggest gainer was NAS#61-ADSK. It closed 15.9% last week. It is up 25.9% since the MTI sell signal on Aug 19, 2011. The reason for continued avoidance is negative Pressure and Yellow Bear status. Additionally, it has been enduring a bearish trend since 2007. The MTI will buy when Force crosses above Pressure if price can hold above Yellow.

The NASDAQ100’s biggest loser was NAS#55-RIMM. It was down 19.4% last week. It is down 48.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on May 16, 2011. RIMM’s glory days appear to have passed.

The Indicant Selected Stock’s biggest gainer was ISTK#83-ATML. It was up 21.2% last week. It is up 152.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on July 31, 2009. ISTK#58-TGX was down 11.6%, as the biggest loser in this group. It is down 19.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on July 29, 2011. It is a solid Yellow Bear with falling Force and Pressure.

The DJIA’s biggest gainer was DOW#26-INTC, closing up by 11.5% last week. It is up 16.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2011. The Dow’s loser was DOW#23-PFE, closing down 0.7% last week. It is up 20.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 15, 2010. Although it has performed poorly since that buy signal, it, so far, outpaces CD’s.

The Dow Utilities biggest winner was DJU#05-AES, closing up 7.1% for the week. Utilities did not have any losers. The weakest winner was DJU#01, closing up 2.0% for the week. The Utilities Index has expressed consistent bullishness the past year, albeit weakly.

Mutual Fund biggest gainer was MF#38-FSELX. It was up 9.9% last week. It is up 33.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 24, 2009. It will be interesting to see how its Force Vector behaves the next several weeks. Mutual Funds biggest loser was MF#22-USPIX, closing down 12.3% for the week. If this were a post-election year, it would be a buy, as it is configured with bullish attributes. It is down 78.0%, however, since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell on April 9, 2009.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 201 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 66.5%. That annualizes to 38.7%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 201-stocks and funds for an average of 89.4-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 134-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 12.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 48.9-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Sep 17, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 135-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 70.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 56.1% (annualized at 41.4%). There were 97-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 37.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 89.2-weeks earlier one year ago. There were 84-buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 151-stocks and funds of the 333-tracked two years ago on Sep 18, 2009. They were up by an average of 26.2%, annualized at 66.4%, since their respective buy signals an average of 20.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 130-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 37.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 75.4-weeks earlier. There were 36-buy signals adding to the 127-buy signals in the prior eight weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued losing dominance at this time in 2009 along the mid-term cycle.

There were 112-stocks and funds with hold signals on Sep 12, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 138.2-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 149.4% (annualized at 56.2%). There were 185-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 21.6% from their respective sell signals an average of 30.0-weeks earlier. There were 47-sell signals on this weekend in 2008, adding to the 408-sell signals in the prior 44-weeks, as the bear market was now maturing at this point in 2008, but nowhere near its final destruction. There was one buy signal on this weekend in 2008.

On Sep 14, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 251-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 149.1% (annualized at 61.8%) since their buy signals an average of 125.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 91-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 5.5% since their sell signals an average of 17.0-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2007. The Mid-term bull cycle was beginning to struggle at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies.

Five years ago, on Sep 15, 2006, there were 261-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 112.5% (annualized at 69.8%) since their respective buy signals an average of 83.8-weeks earlier. There were 36-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 14.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 19.0-weeks earlier. There were 46-buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid for the most part in 2006.

On Sep 16, 2005, there were 231-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 105.8%, annualizing at 60.8%, since their respective buy signals an average of 90.4-weeks earlier. There were 85-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 9.0% since their sell signals an average of 22.6-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2005.

There were 186-stocks and funds with hold signals on Sep 17, 2004. They were up by an average of 78.2%, annualizing at 68.2%, since their buy signals 59.6-weeks earlier. The 84-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 27.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 46.9-weeks earlier. There were 20-buy signals and six sell signals on this weekend in 2004. The 2004-meandering bear market that pestered throughout most of 2004 continued its abatement process at this time.

On Sep 19, 2003, there were 271-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 53.8% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 27.5-weeks earlier. That annualized at 101.7%. There were only 16-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 23.2% since their sell signals an average of 31.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were six-buy signals in addition to 312-buy signals in the prior 26-weeks. There were three sell signals on this weekend in 2003, as the stock market concluded its classical late summer sell-off. The 2003 bull market was 29-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Sep 20, 2002, there were 74-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 13.9% since their buy signals an average of 18.1-weeks earlier, annualizing at 40.0%. There were 119-stocks and funds avoided since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 14.3-weeks earlier. There were two-buy signals in addition to 213-buy signals in the prior seven weeks. Although the stock market bear remained in effect, it was beginning to display weakness. Some of the Aug buy signals retained hold signals through late 2007 and early 2008, while several others were reversed with sell signals before the conclusion of calendar year 2002. Energy related buy signals in Aug 2002, however, held strongly through the December 2002-record-bear and lasted until late 2008. There were 100-sell signals on this weekend when normal September stock market bearishness occurred.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Bull and Bear Signals This Weekend

There are ample reasons to be guarded on potential bearish aggression at this time.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 58.0% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 135.4% and the S&P500 is up 56.5% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 128.2% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011 in spite of recent bearishness and souring economic news. However, recent bearish behavior may not have yet ended this year.

The NASDAQ is down 48.1% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 20.4% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 1.8% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish for the last eleven years.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 31.4% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 34.6% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 41.3%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 5.0% from that year’s meandering bear market, but finished up by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 0.7% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up by 1.4% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 7.7% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 16.8% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 35.3% on this weekend in 2009 and finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 1.5% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 0.6% this year. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are down 3.3% and 1.2%, respectively. This contrasts, sharply, with historical standards. The last bearish pre-election year was in 1939.

The Dow is down 18.7% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 8.3% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 22.3% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. This coincides with political coziness in Washington D.C.

Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 eleven weeks ago. That was the second time this year such accomplishment has been enjoyed. However, comfort by capital markets eclipsing 2007 cyclical peaks remains elusive. Bearish aggression in five of the past seven weeks clearly demonstrate repulsions to bettering 2007 peak prices. However, the NASDAQ100 Index crossed above its Oct 31, 2007 high this past week. It is the only one enjoying such a position.

The NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago. It, along with other major indices similar behavior, retreated below those peaks. Several indices have never challenged those peak prices. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 25.1% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. As you can see from recent stock market behavior, suspicions about the 2009-2011 bull leg had merit. The reason for those suspicions was near maximal incongruence between political leadership and the underlying principles of capital markets. The Dec 12, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow is up 75.8% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 106.7% and the S&P500 is up 79.7% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 114.3% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Such a successor bear cycle is now underway, although challenged last week.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets both free and controlled are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As you have seen the past few weeks, the potential for a massive and long-lasting bear is possible, as dilettantes the world wide continue converting their currencies to meaningless expressions. Interestingly, an “instinctive” resistance to this is manifesting, which could obsolete the previous sentence.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. They have been yielding zero for the past six weeks.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 35-weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull, but still troubled. It is enduring a gentle bearish cycle, but it remains as a Red Bull. That is interesting for a currency that may not exist in a few years.

The Canadian dollar and the Japanese Yen remain strong and continue strengthening. The CA$ moved in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) three weeks ago and remains there. The Japanese yen is extraordinarily strong.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. It is trading well above the 2012 yearend forecast at above $1800/oz. Its recent bullish behavior is indeed impressive, while it was solidly bearish this past week. The $2,000/oz.-forecast by 2014 remains challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains intact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild bearish bias, but with increased bearish pressure the past few weeks. It became a yellow bear twelve weeks ago, but bounced north off yellow, like all good bulls do. However, it fell again below yellow seven weeks ago on souring economic news. It remains as a Yellow Bear.

Scrolling down a bit on the aforementioned webpage, the CRB Bridge Futures continues waffling, but remaining above the bullish Red Curve, but getting close to contact. Its resistance to bearish behavior is impressive.

Commodity prices, overall, were bearish in fifteen of the last 20-weeks. Souring economic forecasts continue dampening commodities bullish cycle. Current configurations are no longer expecting a bullish surge. Most are without much volatility and trading in the neutral zone.

Mortgage rates are moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011. After falling sharply six weeks ago on souring economic news, they enjoyed a nice bullish bounce four weeks ago, but down the past two weeks.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and non-threatening toward inflation or deflation.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received an MTI buy signal on Jul 22, 2011. It is up 3.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 19.5%.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 13.0%, annualized at 12.9% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 25.1%, annualized at 24.8%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 9.9% since then, annualizing at 10.4%.

The Quick-term and Near-term signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 2, 2011. It is up 1.3% since that sell signal. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. It was up over 25.0%, annualized at 29.0% from its Quick-term buy signal on Sep 15, 2010 and the Quick-term sell signal on Aug 8, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 118.3% since that buy signal, annualizing at 42.2%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy on Jul 6, 2011. It is up 17.2% since then, annualizing at 88.2%.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There was one new bull signal and no new bear signals.

The lone index retaining the bull signal is the DJU. It is up 12.3% since its bull signal on Sep 17, 2010, annualizing at 12.3%. Next week’s report will include the NASDAQ100, which received a new bull signal this weekend.

The remaining major indices with bear signals are up by an average of 1.2% since their bear signals on Aug 5, 2011.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $30,015,060. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,750,965 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $141,743. That beats buy and hold’s $119,112 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $216,610. That beats buy and hold’s $90,926 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1614.2%, 19.0%, and 138.2%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 78.0% since then.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 297.6% (annualized at 14.9%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,037-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

As stated this past Thursday, “short-term attributes are configuring in favor of the stock market bull. Bullish unanimity remains absent, which is common in the early stages. It is equally common for bullish spurts. Be ready to sell if and when signals are triggered.”

Bearish remnants, such as bearish Pressure and residual Yellow Bears must also expire before relaxation is allowed.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Index Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled two new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

In addition to the new bull signals, the Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for several non-contrarians and contrarian VIX. Collectively, they are up 5.8%, annualizing at 250.8%.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for three major indices. They are up by an average of 2.6% since their bear signals an average of 2.0-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled three new bulls and no new bears.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for two major non-contrarian indices, including contrarian VIX. Collectively, they are up 10.4% since their bull signals an average of 2.6-weeks ago. This annualizes at 209.6%.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for five non-contrarian indices. They are down by an average of 2.0% since their bear signals an average of 5.4-weeks ago.

Indicant Volume Indicators

Sep 16-Fri-Volume was up significantly on mild bullishness. That is supportive of the short-term stock market bull cycle. Next week’s behavior will offer more evidence of substance in previous sentence.

Sep 15-Thu-Average volume on strong bullishness is okay, but leaving mild elements of suspicion regarding recent bullish behavior.

Sep 14-Wed-Volume was aggressive on today’s bullish stock market behavior. That bodes well for the stock market bull to overcome the bear.

Sep 13-Tue-Below average volume with passive bullishness does not suggest this bullishness is continuing.

Sep 12-Mon-Average volume on closing mild bullishness with significant intraday volatility is not supportive of the bull’s intrusion on bearish dominance.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated four buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 8.7% since their buy signals an average of 2.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 230.0%.

The NTI is avoiding 16-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 1.2% since their near-term sell signals an average of 2.0-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated two buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for eleven-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 15.1% since their buy signals an average of 14.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 52.7%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 19-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 2.6% since the QTI sell signals an average of 5.0-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2011. It is up 1.3% since those sell signals. Force Vectors leveled last Monday, suggesting mild hope in a bullish bounce. That bullish bounce indeed occurred. Price crossed above Yellow last Thu and fell below on Fri. Price remains below NTI Blue. Force remains depressed. Those latter two attributes prevent a buy signal.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 118.3% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 42.2%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $144.28 and still rising. Relaxation is in order since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $176.03.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 8, 2011, as Force penetrated bullish domains. It is up 17.2% since that buy signal, annualizing at 88.2%. NTI Green is above buy price and the next near-term sell signal will not occur until price’s interaction with NTI Green and a pathetically configured Force Vector.

Of concern is declining Force. Do not be surprised at GLD falling to NTI Green. Keep in mind, though that NTI Green, which is now at $169.45 will be at last Tuesday’s price of $176.67 about seven days from now.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal on Fri, Jul 29, 2011 from the Quick-term Indicant model. It is up 14.6% since that buy signal, annualizing at 107.4%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 2, 2011. It is down 0.2% since then. Its Force Vector cycle is now in a bearish cycle, threatening the near-term hold signal.

ETF#31-QID received a sell signal by the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant on Sep 14,2011. It is down 4.8% since then.

The Quick-term signaled buy for ETF#32-VXX on Aug 8, 2011. It is up 19.5% since then, annualizing at 179.7%. It is up 74.3% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 28, 2011, annualizing at 534.9%. This ETN will be abandoned once the stock market stabilizes, as its tracking to VIX is unreliable. However, current performance levels suggest some difficulty in its abandonment. It fell below NTI Blue today and the hold signal are being threatened with declining Force and loss of NTI Blue Bull status.

Major ETF Events

Sep 16-Fri-Stock market’s bullish Force continues to climb and more prices continue crossing above critical values of NTI Bullish Blue and QTI Bearish Yellow curves. This triggered more short-term bull/buy signals.

Sep 15-Thu-More indices and ETF’s configured for bullish support. Several remain shy of doing so. Bullish consensus is absent.

Sep 14-Wed-The NY 9^th Congressional District elected a republican congressmen for the first time ever. This will only heighten Washington DC gridlock and that is bullish. Technically, though, the bear is not quite dead on a short-term or mid-term basis.

Sep 13-Tue-Stock market Force Vectors continued their movement to the north. This threatens the bear, but mildly so at this point, as most prices remain in near-term neutrality (between Blue and Green curves). One ETF, IBB, received buy signals as it qualified with price above NTI Blue and Force shifting north in bullish domains.

Sep 12-Mon-Force Vectors discontinued their decline. That does not mean reversal, but suggests potential relief from the bear. Prices, for the most part, are hovering in near-term neutrality, which is between Near-term blue and green.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Sep 16, 2011-Force Vectors continue their embryonic movement to the north. Keep in mind these cycles are short, lasting on average of 4 to 8-days. Until Force Vectors shift above Pressure and into bullish domains with prices topping the NTI blue curves, the bear will continue to pester. The bullish attributes continue to occur, but bullish unanimity remains absent and Pressure remains in bearish domains. Until those bearish remnants expire, be ready to react to a resurgence in domination by the stock market bear.

Reverse Tangential Projections

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed bullish convergence four weeks ago and again this past week. That interrupted four consecutive weeks of combined bearish convergence/divergence, which is a solid bearish configuration. There are no obviations of directional intensity at this time.

Indicant Conclusion

The stock market continues demonstrating an inability to exceed 2007 peak levels. Technically, the question remains, “are corporations in better position for growth now than then?” The obvious answer is “no.” The current economic environment is not going to foment revenue increases. Corporate profitability is a function of cost cutting and work force reductions. The stock market bull desires revenue increases that couple to bottom line increases.

The good news, though, is that none of the major indices are Yellow Bears. Just as the 2009-2011 was a “suspicious” bull, the current bear market can be viewed with some suspicion until such time, all the major indices are Yellow Bears. Last week’s bullishness contributed to minimizing that threat, but the threat remains.

The Mid-term Indicant continues signaling bear for most of the indices in spite of last week’s bullish behavior.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

09/18/2011

Sep 11, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 09, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

The Last Bearish Pre-election Year Was in 1939

So far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 5.0%. If the heart and soul of bullish seasonality does not manifest this year and propel 2011 to a bullish conclusion, this presidential pre-election year will be the first bearish conclusion since 1939. When that occurred in 1939, the next two years were also bearish.

As stated regularly in this report, the Dow is down significantly since the since the 2003-2007-bull peak. As of this past week, the Dow is down 22.4% since its prior peak on Oct 9, 2007. If the Dow does not eclipse this high this year or next year, the post election year of 2013 could be horrendously bearish. Of course, that is purely speculative, but with some mild support due to other major indices struggling to move above their respective 2007-peaks.

The NASDAQ100 and a few other indices moved above their 2007-pre-crash highs several times, earlier this year. Each time, the bear overcame, what is believed, to be excessive bullish ambition, relative to prevailing economic conditions. As of this weekend, none of the major indices are above their 2007-precrash highs. The difficulty in the major indices crossing above these pre-crash highs suggests rationalization of fundamental justifications for the 2009-mid-2011 bull cycle. Such rationalizations are not be supported by logic. Fundamentally, it is difficult to justify new stock market highs, when comparing to the 2006-07 economy.

Economic conditions are much poorer now than in 2006-07. Economic threats by politicians during 2008 through Nov 2010 were significant. The American public elected same party representation in the executive and legislative branches of government. That coziness unleashed significant bearish threats to the economy. The 2009-2010 stock market bull cycle is appropriately perceived to be a fabricated one. Economic conditions do not justify a continuing stock market bull.

Fortunately, for the stock market bull, economic fundamentals do not always stimulate correlative stock market behavior along the mid-term to short-term cycle. However, the long-term stock market cycles do correlate with economic fundamentals. So, with that, it is possible the heart and soul of bullish seasonality can muster enough bullish energy to prevent 2011 from being the first presidential pre-election year to bearishly conclude.

The new evolving threat is a significant and a major one. Politicians claim they can create jobs. They can’t. It is just another one of the massive contribution to their artful skills at lying. The more they do to create jobs, the greater the damage to economic fundamentals. This is always the resulting consequence of political and governmental meddling into economic activity. Any political and/or governmental activity always results in weakening economic performance.

FDR worked hard to create jobs. That irrational behavior directly and indirectly spawned similar irrationalities around the world. This led to World War II. The American public elected that guy four times and to make matters worse, they provided him a democratic congress. All things got worse. Most of those who voted for FDR endured emotional hardships for at least a generation, just as the Russian Red Army raped thousands of German girls, who swooned at Adolph Hitler’s presence, several years after their fainting spells.

The price tag for believing and following instruction from any politician is always met with a price; both financial and emotional. In other words, liabilities increase and assets decrease. Politicians are economically impotent. There are no exceptions to this.

The 2010-Dow closed at 11,557.51. It closed at 10,992.13 last Friday. Therefore, all that is needed is 565.39-points (or 5.14%) to prevent 2011 from being the first pre-election bear since 1939. There is a significant probability of stock market bearishness the next two years if the Dow does not move up by at least 565.6-point before the last trading day of December 2011.

The heart and soul of bullish seasonality always occurs. Unfortunately, it is sometimes very passive and does not garnish a paltry 5.14% gain from its predecessor’s bearish depth to its bullish maximum. You will know the heart and soul of bullishness seasonality will start when Force Vectors exceed Vector Pressure inside bullish domains with price holding above the Near-term Indicant Blue Curve.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

There were few wild swings last week. Of interest is Fidelity’s Low Price Fund, MF#61-FLPXS, which was down 8.2% last week. That is a relatively large drop for a major mutual fund. It was the largest drop among the 100-funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. This fund in not yet a Yellow Bear, but getting close. It is up only 0.3% since the MTI buy signal one year ago.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and two-sell signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 201 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 58.4%. That annualizes to 34.4%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 201-stocks and funds for an average of 88.4-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 132-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 16.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 48.0-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Sep 10, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 135-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 69.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 53.1% (annualized at 39.7%). There were 181-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 18.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 62.2-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 144-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Sep 11, 2009. They were up by an average of 24.4%, annualized at 59.1%, since their respective buy signals an average of 21.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 166-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 35.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 72.1-weeks earlier. There were seven buy signals adding to the 120-buy signals in the prior seven weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued losing dominance at this time in 2009 along the mid-term cycle.

There were 159-stocks and funds with hold signals on Sep 5, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 106.8-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 121.0% (annualized at 58.9%). There were 175-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 20.3% from their respective sell signals an average of 31.4-weeks earlier. There were eleven sell signals on this weekend in 2008, adding to the 397-sell signals in the prior 43-weeks, as the bear market was now maturing at this point in 2008, but nowhere near its final destruction. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008 and through the summer months. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the avoided stocks from late 2007 and early 2008 Mid-term Indicant sell signals remained with avoid signals during that “bullish spurt.” There were no buy signals on this weekend in 2008.

On Sep 7, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 250-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 148.4% (annualized at 61.7%) since their buy signals an average of 125.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 86-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 6.9% since their sell signals an average of 16.9-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and seven sell signals on this weekend in 2007. The Mid-term bull cycle was beginning to struggle at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies.

Five years ago, on Sep 8, 2006, there were 263-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 112.9% (annualized at 71.3%) since their respective buy signals an average of 82.4-weeks earlier. There were 82-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 9.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 24.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid for the most part in 2006.

On Sep 9, 2005, there were 227-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 109.6%, annualizing at 62.5%, since their respective buy signals an average of 91.3-weeks earlier. There were 87-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 7.9% since their sell signals an average of 21.7-weeks earlier. There were five buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2005.

There were 187-stocks and funds with hold signals on Sep 10, 2004. They were up by an average of 75.7%, annualizing at 67.2%, since their buy signals 58.6-weeks earlier. The 104-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 26.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 45.6-weeks earlier. There were five buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2004. The 2004-meandering bear market that pestered throughout most of 2004 was abating at this time.

On Sep 12, 2003, there were 268-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 51.4% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 27.6-weeks earlier. That annualized at 96.9%. There were only 16-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 22.7% since their sell signals an average of 31.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were six-buy signals in addition to 306-buy signals in the prior 25-weeks. There were six sell signals on this weekend in 2003, as the stock market concluded its classical late summer sell-off. The 2003 bull market was 28-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Sep 13, 2002, there were 171-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 8.0% since their buy signals an average of 10.6-weeks earlier, annualizing at 39.3%. There were 101-stocks and funds avoided since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 16.9-weeks earlier. There were three-buy signals in addition to 210-buy signals in the prior six weeks. Although the stock market bear remained in effect, it was beginning to display weakness. Some of the Aug buy signals retained hold signals through late 2007 and early 2008, while several others were reversed with sell signals a few months later. Energy related buy signals in Aug 2002, however, held strongly through the December 2002-record-bear and lasted until late 2008. There were 20-sell signals on this weekend when normal September stock market bearishness occurred.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Bull and Bear Signals This Weekend

As stated the past two weeks, “other than the Dow Utilities, all other remaining major indices remain as bears.” Utilities continued resistance to bearish ambition suggests the heart and soul of bullish seasonality will be normal this year. This usually occurs in late September or early October.

Concerns regarding 2011’s presidential pre-election year bearishness were subsiding until last week. Although threats continue, Utility’s resistance suggests the bear cannot dominate. In other words, deep and long lasting bears leave nothing alone, in spite of last week’s bearish aggression.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 50.9% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 121.5% and the S&P500 is up 48.6% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 116.4% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011 in spite of recent bearishness and souring economic news.

The NASDAQ is down 51.1% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 24.4% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 6.2% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish for the last eleven years.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 31.7% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 33.1% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 40.3%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 6.7% from that year’s meandering bear market, but finished up by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was flat on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was down by 1.8% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 6.2% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 16.7% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 30.7% on this weekend in 2009 and finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was down 1.5% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 5.1% this year. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are down 8.2% and 7.0%, respectively. This contrasts, sharply, with historical standards. The last bearish pre-election year was in 1939.

The Dow is down 22.4% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 13.7% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 26.3% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. This coincides with political coziness in Washington D.C.

Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 ten weeks ago. That was the second time this year such accomplishment has been enjoyed. However, comfort by capital markets eclipsing 2007 cyclical peaks remains elusive. Bearish aggression in five of the past six weeks clearly demonstrate repulsions to bettering 2007 peak prices. The index closest to achieving its 2007 cyclical peak is the NAS100. It is 3.4% shy of its Oct 31, 2007.

The NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago. It, along with other major indices similar behavior, retreated below those peaks. Several indices have never challenged those peak prices. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 28.8% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. As you can see from recent stock market behavior, suspicions about the 2009-2011 bull leg had merit. The reason for those suspicions was near maximal incongruence between political leadership and the underlying principles of capital markets. The Dec 12, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow is up 67.9% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 94.5% and the S&P500 is up 70.6% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 103.1% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Such a successor bear cycle is now underway.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets both free and controlled are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As you have seen the past few weeks, the potential for a massive and long-lasting bear is possible, as dilettantes the world wide continue converting their currencies to meaningless expressions. Interestingly, an “instinctive” resistance to this is manifesting, which could obsolete the previous sentence.

As promised by Bernanke in late 2008, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value. Bernanke recently promised more of the same for the next two years. Of course, such promises should not be taken seriously. Those sort of folks have been breaking promises for centuries. Other similar sort of folks claim low interest rates are creating a cumulative bubble that will burst, resulting in generational calamity.

The stock market is anticipating either high interest rates, inflationary pressures, or both. Of course, until that happens, corporate earnings will continue to influence stock market behavior.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. After three consecutive weeks of zero yields, the three month yielded 0.1% eight weeks ago, up to 0.5% seven weeks ago, back down to 0.1% six weeks ago, and finally back to 0.0% the past five weeks. The Fed may be reacting to the stock market by lowering rates with bearish behavior and raising during bullish spurts. That continues to correlate.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 34-weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull, but still troubled. As stated the past several weeks, it is hovering without direction. That is interesting for a currency that may not exist in a few years.

The Canadian dollar and the Japanese Yen remain strong and continue strengthening. The CA$ moved in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) two weeks ago and remains there. The Japanese yen is extraordinarily strong.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. It is trading well above the 2012 yearend forecast at above $1800/oz. Its recent bullish behavior is indeed impressive. The $2,000/oz.-forecast by 2014 remains challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains intact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild bearish bias, but with increased bearish pressure the past few weeks. It became a yellow bear eleven weeks ago, but bounced north off yellow, like all good bulls do. However, it fell again below yellow six weeks ago on souring economic news. Oil was strongly bullish the past few days.

Commodity prices, overall, were bearish in fourteen of the last 19-weeks. Souring economic forecasts continue dampening commodities bullish cycle. Current configurations are no longer expecting a bullish surge. Most are without much volatility and trading in the neutral zone.

Mortgage rates are moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011. After falling sharply five weeks ago on souring economic news, they enjoyed a nice bullish bounce three weeks ago, but solidly down this past week.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and non-threatening toward inflation or deflation.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received an MTI buy signal on Jul 22, 2011. It is up 6.1% since that buy signal.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 9.3%, annualized at 9.3% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 20.6%, annualized at 20.8%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 7.1% since then, annualizing at 7.6%.

The Quick-term and Near-term signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 2, 2011. It is down 2.0% since that sell signal. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. It was up over 25.0%, annualized at 29.0% from its Quick-term buy signal on Sep 15, 2010 and the Quick-term sell signal on Aug 8, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 124.1% since that buy signal, annualizing at 44.6%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy on Jul 6, 2011. It is up 22.0% since then, annualizing at 141.1%.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The lone index retaining the bull signal is the DJU. It is up 7.4% since its bull signal on Sep 17, 2010, annualizing at 7.5%.

The remaining major indices with bear signals are down by an average of 3.0% since their bear signals on Aug 5, 2011, including the NASDAQ100’s bear signal on Aug 19, 2011.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $30,015,060. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,672,316 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $141,743. That beats buy and hold’s $113,060 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $216,610. That beats buy and hold’s $85,575 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1694.8%, 25.4%, and 153.1%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 74.9% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund. The Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for QID, adding some hope for a Mid-term buy signal for MF#22, but pre-election year weighting contributes to caution here.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 279.7% (annualized at 14.0%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,036-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

As stated everyday this past week, “Force Vectors continue falling. Pressure remains in bearish domains. Until Force reverses direction, the stock market bear has the edge.”

The paradox remains. The presidential pre-election year is the most bullish. The stock market is down for the year and it has not finished a pre-election year, bearishly, since 1939. September is the most bearish month because political leadership returns from vacation howling and barking a bit more loudly than normal. So, we are officially contained in the bearish seasonality period, during the most bullish year along the election cycle.

As stated most of this week, “assuming Force Vectors fall below Pressure and into bearish domains, which is supported by statistically significant probabilities, it is just a matter of waiting for the next bullish cycle. This will be closely monitored. Keep in mind the heart and soul of bullish seasonality does not officially start for about five to six more weeks. It usually has to wait and confirm political chit-chat is benign. There is considerable variation around this cyclical start and is usually identified with a sharp rise in Force with Pressure propelling into bullish domains. So, that is what we are looking for and preferably with some volume support.”

On Friday, volume was up on dynamic bearishness and Force Vectors dipped into bearish domains. The current Force Vector cycle is maturing. Its behavior will be very interesting once it shifts back to the north.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Index Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull solely for contrarian VIX, which is up 67.6% since its bull signal 6.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 559.4%.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bear for ten major indices. They are down by an average of 1.6% since their bear signals an average of 0.9-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for two major indices, contrarian VIX and non-contrarian NAS100. Collectively, they are up 32.5% since their bull signals an average of 3.9-weeks ago. This annualizes at 429.6%. The NASDAQ100 retains a mild bullish configuration along the quick-term cycle.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for ten non-contrarian indices. They are down by an average of 4.7% since their bear signals an average of 3.5-weeks ago.

Indicant Volume Indicators

Both major indices are robustly in high interest domains and accelerating in that configuration. That robustness coincides with bearish aggression. That adds to bearish bias. Sustainable bullish behavior requires robustness in conjunction with bullish attributes along the short-term cycle. That remains absent.

Sep 9-Fri-Aggressive volume on dynamic bearish behavior supports the prevailing stock market bear.

Sep 8-Thu-Average volume on bearish aggression remains supportive of the stock market bear.

Sep 7-Wed-Average volume on bullish aggression is not enough to stimulate the bull to dominate.

Sep 6-Tue-Slightly aggressive volume, coupled with bearish behavior adds to bearish bias along the short-term cycle in spite of strong bullish behavior before the close.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and four sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for five-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 22.7% since their buy signals an average of 3.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 308.7%.

The NTI is avoiding 23-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 2.1% since their near-term sell signals an average of 1.1-weeks ago.

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and four sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for six-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 28.3% since their buy signals an average of 26.5-weeks ago. This annualizes at 55.5%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 22-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 5.3% since the QTI sell signals an average of 3.7-weeks ago.

As stated last Wednesday, “hold and avoid signals are a hodgepodge of contrarian and non-contrarian ETF’s. This suggests the stock market bear and the stock market bull are not enjoying unanimity in support of their ambition. Bullish and bearish behavior of significant magnitude requires unanimous support by these specific ETF’s. Although the stock market bear has been enjoying advantages the past few days, the bull has retained counterattack potential. Declining Force Vectors continue to support the stock market bear. This current Force Vector bearish cycle should conclude in a few days.”

You noticed the bull counterattacked last Wednesday. The bear, however, demonstrated greater influence this past Thursday and Friday.

Additional sell signals after Friday’s close by both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicant has generated short-term bearish unanimity. Therefore, it is excessively risky to be holding any non-contrarian securities with Yellow Bear status at this time along the short-term cycle. Stop floors no longer exist.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Sep 2, 2011. As stated at that time, “price fell below NTI Blue and Force’s turn to the south was of the crispness that correlates with a 92% chance of falling below Pressure and into bearish domains and quickly.” It is down 2.0% since those sell signals. Although price passed above NTI Blue last Wednesday, Force continues declining toward negative Pressure. Therefore, continue to avoid.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 124.1% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 44.6%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $142.85 and still rising. Relaxation is in order since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $180.70.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 8, 2011, as Force penetrated bullish domains. It is up 20.3% since that buy signal, annualizing at 115.8%. NTI Green is above buy price and the next near-term sell signal will not occur until price’s interaction with NTI Green and a pathetically configured Force Vector.

GLD’s Force Vector shifted back toward the south on Wed, while remaining above Pressure. It was solidly bullish last Thursday following significant bearishness on Wednesday. Fear of currency wild swings with Greek’s renewed potential default prompted mild bearishness in this fund on Friday.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal on Fri, Jul 29, 2011 from the Quick-term Indicant model. It is up 16.1% since that buy signal, annualizing at 138.2%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 2, 2011. It is up 1.1% since then. As stated most of the past three weeks, this fund could be a bit jumpy in the next several days. As stated last Wednesday, “if the market opens up in the morning with this ETF down, call options for a two day hold are appealing.” That turned out to be a good move.

ETF#31-QID received a buy signal by the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant on Sep 2, 2011. Its Force Vector cycle continues moving north and with high Pressure. As stated last Friday, do not be surprised at it exceeding $60 within ten days. Now, that is six days. (Yesterday’s report misstated the count-down). Its Force Vector continues rising and price is still above NTI Green, both of which are non-bearish attributes. It closed at $53.77 on Friday.

The Quick-term signaled buy for ETF#32-VXX on Aug 8, 2011. It is up 31.8% since then, annualizing at 357.4%. It is up 92.2% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 28, 2011, annualizing at 772.2%. This ETN will be abandoned once the stock market stabilizes, as its tracking to VIX is unreliable. However, current performance levels suggest some difficulty in its abandonment.

Major ETF Events

Sep 09-Fri-Dynamic bearishness correlated with political, non-substantive, rhetoric.

Sep 08-Thu-A few more ETF Force Vectors fell below Pressure and into bearish domains. This triggered additional sell signals.

Sep 07-Wed-Strong bullish behavior did not reverse bearishly behaving Force Vectors. Therefore, bearish bias prevails.

Sep 06-Tue-Strong intraday bearish behavior suggests little near-term hope for the stock market bull. Rest assured, political talk this week will add to bearishness unless politicians undo their prior damage.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Sep 9, 2011-Force Vectors continue drifting south, while contrarians VXX and QID continue moving north. As stated last Wednesday, “bullish behavior was accompanied with mediocre volume and thus without substance. Do not be surprised at a resumption of stock market bearishness after the president’s speech Thursday night. Political chatter will eventually soften and facilitate an increased probability of strong bullishness in the fourth quarter of this year.” You witnessed this phenomenon with dynamic bearish behavior on Friday. Until Force Vectors shift above Pressure and into bullish domains, the bear will continue to pester.

Reverse Tangential Projections

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed bullish convergence three weeks ago. That interrupted four consecutive weeks of combined bearish convergence/divergence, which is a solid bearish configuration. The stock market was bearishly convergent last week.

Indicant Conclusion

Unfortunately, political chitchat stifled bullish aspirations the past two weeks. Egotistical needs and political manipulations for vote-getting purposes over powered the stock market the past two weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant continues signaling bear for most of the indices.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

09/11/2011

Sep 4, 2011 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Red Alert – Political Chitchat Dangerously High

The passive could claim the President of the United States may not know how to use his Microsoft Outlook calendar. However, schoolyard politics is the real problem.

Before carving out the simple political ploy, it is important to mention the ineptness of those who believe they are in charge of society. Unemployment remained at 9.1%. Politicians consistently demonstrate their impotence. They talk about the economy, healthcare, whatever and have no positive contribution to any of it.

Doctors, nurses, technicians, scientists, pharmaceutical manufacturing, researchers, etc administer healthcare. Politicians know nothing about it, but yet they continue to chitchat about it. Would you allow your elected representative to do brain surgery on you? Most would not even attempt it, but yet they have their little peach fuzz assistants bang out multi-thousand page legislation, along with pharmaceutical company representatives and other lobbyists, write all those pages that are not even read before the legislative voting processes. The American voter has positioned those with the least character among us to perform legislative duties.

The best legislation written was before typewriters and word processors. Congressional representatives wrote it in longhand. It was usually succinct and consistently highlighted a distrust of any single human being to always do what is right in the protection of freedom, property, and the pursuit of happiness by the masses, as opposed to just the happiness by those representatives.

A smart republic would mandate by constitutional amendment that congressional representatives write all future legislation in longhand. This would include that all regulatory laws expires every five years. After that, congressional representatives would then have to pull out their ink pens and a clean sheet of paper and start writing if some legacy regulatory law was actually desirable. If none were written, organizations, such as the FDA, DEA, Justice Department, SEC, IRS, EPA, etc. would be fired. Not writing such laws by elected representatives would represent what the American voter want. In this example, none of those organizations would be needed.

These fired workers could publicly petition congress and advise them of their value and worthiness. If successful, congressional representatives could pull out their pens and start writing. Congress would be able to petitioning the SEC why most of the workday consisted of surfing the internet for porn. In that case, the ink pens would most likely remain at rest. If convincing and once the ink was dried, congressional representatives would then submit their proposals for congressional vote. There were no copy machines then and the taxpayer should no longer pay for them. In essence, handwritten copies would either have to be written and/or pass the lone sheet around to be read by members of Congress.

There is no mathematical proof here, but a 100,000 Dow would be a good target five years after the passage of this amendment; ink, longhand, and no copy machines. The founders of the U.S. Constitution were unconscious of the speed and efficiency of creating unrelenting stupidity and related corruption via technological advances, such as word processors. The founders wrote all legislation in their own longhand and that, alone, minimized federal deficits, corruption, and kept them focused on the task of protecting their constituents to their rights in their pursuit of happiness.

If all politicians and government workers had to do their work in longhand with ink, political chitchat would be minimized. They would have to work hard justifying their efforts, including the cumulative efforts of their predecessors. Of course, the horrors of Smooth-Hawley-like legislation would not be mitigated. This would not completely stop stupidity, but it would certainly slow the pace. Inefficiencies by politicians is what is needed to inspire the stock market bull.

Forcing “political substance” by forcing all legislation in longhand and no assistants would minimize their time for political shenanigans. Politicians’ assistants and lobbyists do all of the real work right now. This frees the politicians to do political things. None of their political activities create economic value. On the contrary, their gain in power reduces the power of their constituents and the economy. Economic leeches will always exist, but their influence should be limited to leeching only to their personal capacity to do so, as opposed to the current massive amounts. The stock market bear continues to find delight in heightened political chitchat and related nonsensicality of it all.

Here is one of the latest political plots. The President of the United States of America, the home of the brave and the land of the free, scheduled his political chitchat for this coming Wednesday night. The Republican presidential debate has been scheduled for this coming Wednesday night for several weeks. Of course, republican congressional representatives would prefer to watch the debate so they can gain insight on who they would support to lead their party. The president was hoping to preempt the republican debate with his own chitchat.

The president acquiesced to republican leadership and rescheduled his speech. Here is why. The president can now claim republicans are standing in his way and he is going out of his way to placate republican demands. The president knows the number of voting Americans who will believe him just may be in the majority. If that is the case, he will be re-elected. That is all he cares about; nothing more and nothing less.

Here is another political plot. It is possible that some workers at Fender, Taylor, Rickenbacker, Danelectro, Carvin, MusicMan, ESP, Spector, Martin, Guild, Ovation, Hamer, Alvarez, B.C. Rich, Hertitage, and Washburn would vote for a republican in the next presidential election. The Justice Department shutdown Gibson in Tennessee this past week to minimize the numbers of workers at those companies voting for republicans. Here’s why. Tennessee is a right to work state. It is the only company targeted by the Justice Department. All of the aforementioned companies are from forced union states. None of them have been raided.

If you want a guitar, buy only a Gibson. If it is good enough for B.B. King, it should be good enough for you. More information was published in the Wall Street Journal yesterday. Click this sentence to the link to that article. You will notice, no charges were filed against Gibson, but Federal employees confiscated their raw materials. Federal workers apparently can garnish private property without filing charges. This is bearish even though Gibson is a closely held company. The investment world reads the Wall Street Journal. The other 90% of the voters do not. That is also bearish and even offers evidence of why all democracies eventually fail. Vote getting shenanigans are dangerous to capitalism. This is right out of the FDR playbook; support unions for their votes.

The Justice Department declined comment, according to the Wall Street Journal article. How is it that public servants can decline comments? Taxpayers pay them and any American asking public servants for information should be provided. Secretive government behavior in non-military concerns is very dangerous even beyond stock market bearishness.

Oh well, September is here. It is bearish and you are witnessing why it is bearish. Congress is back at work. The Justice Department is stealing private property. The president is playing politics as opposed to governing. All of this is bearish. A counterattack may arouse the bull, but right now, the bear has the edge; not because of poorly projected corporate earnings, but mainly because of political ineptness to economic concerns and shenanigans by politicians. As stated many times in this report, the only positive contribution to the economy by politicians is to undo their prior damage.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

NAS#57-FSLR-was the NASDAQ’s biggest loser last week. It was down 10.5% and down 71.0% since its all-time high. It is down 14.5% since the MTI sell signal on Aug 5, 2011.

NAS#46-DISH was up 9.3% last week, as it was the biggest NAS100 gainer. It is down 69.2% since its all-time high. It is 16.8% since the MTI signaled buy on Nov 5, 2010.

ISTK’s biggest gainer was ISTK#96-CIEN. It was up 27.8% last week while being down 98.7% from its all-time high. It is down 10.9% since the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on Jul 29, 2011.

ISTK’s biggest loser was ISTK#38-ENER. It was down 12.0% and down 99.2% from its all time high. It is down 98.2% since the MTI sell signal on Oct 10, 2008.

The DOW30, Dow Utilities, and Mutual Funds did not endure any double digit movement last week.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Mid-term Indicant

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows. Simply scroll down the page to see graphical and detail content of this section.

The Mid-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no-sell signals.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 202 of the 339-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. The stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 59.2%. That annualizes to 35.5%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 202-stocks and funds for an average of 87.2-weeks.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 132-stocks and funds of 339-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 15.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 47.0-weeks ago.

One year ago, on Sep 3, 2010, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 135-stocks and funds out of 333 tracked for an average of 68.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 52.7% (annualized at 40.0%). There were 181-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 18.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 61.2-weeks earlier one year ago. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend last year.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 143-stocks and funds of the 344-tracked two years ago on Sep 4, 2009. They were up by an average of 21.4%, annualized at 54.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 20.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 173-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 34.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 68.2-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal adding to the 119-buy signals in the prior six weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. The stock market bear continued losing dominance at this time in 2009 along the mid-term cycle.

There were 170-stocks and funds with hold signals on Aug 29, 2008 since their buy signals an average of 98.0-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 123.0% (annualized at 65.2%). There were 168-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 16.7% from their respective sell signals an average of 31.7-weeks earlier. There were seven sell signals on this weekend in 2008, adding to the 390-sell signals in the prior 42-weeks, as the bear market was already well underway at this point in 2008. Although performance levels remained excellent, many stocks and funds were displaying souring configurations in early 2008 and through the summer months. There was a near-term bullish cycle in March/April 2008 that triggered a few buy signals, but most of the avoided stocks from late 2007 and early 2008 Mid-term Indicant sell signals remained with avoid signals during that “bullish spurt.” There were no buy signals on this weekend in 2008 as a bullish mini-spurt manifested on light summertime volume.

On Aug 31, 2007, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 256-stocks and funds out of 345-tracked. They were up by an average of 146.6% (annualized at 62.0%) since their buy signals an average of 122.9-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 87-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 5.6% since their sell signals an average of 15.8-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2007. The Mid-term bull cycle was beginning to struggle at this time in 2007, as the democratic congress was implementing their “take from the productive and give to the non-productive” policies.

Five years ago, on Sep 1, 2006, there were 229-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 345 tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 119.5% (annualized at 68.2%) since their respective buy signals an average of 91.1-weeks earlier. There were 82-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 8.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 23.2-weeks earlier. There were 34-buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2006. The bull was solid for the most part in 2006.

On Sep 2, 2005, there were 225-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 320-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 106.9%, annualizing at 60.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 91.5-weeks earlier. There were 91-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 9.0% since their sell signals an average of 21.2-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2005.

There were 184-stocks and funds with hold signals on Sep 3, 2004. They were up by an average of 75.3%, annualizing at 67.1%, since their buy signals 58.3-weeks earlier. The 106-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 27.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 44.4-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2004. The 2004-meandering bear market that pestered throughout most of 2004 was abating at this time.

On Sep 5, 2003, there were 264-stocks and funds with a hold signal, enjoying a 51.6% gain since their respective buy signals an average of 27.7-weeks earlier. That annualized at 96.9%. There were only 18-avoided stocks at that time. They were down by an average of 8.0% since their sell signals an average of 13.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 296 stocks and funds from 2002 through late 2004. There were 10-buy signals in addition to 296-buy signals in the prior 24-weeks. There were no sell signals on this weekend in 2003, as the stock market concluded its classical late summer sell-off. The 2003 bull market was 27-weeks old on this weekend in 2003.

On Sep 6, 2002, there were 188-stocks and funds with hold signals. They were up 5.8% since their buy signals an average of 8.7-weeks earlier, annualizing at 35.1%. There were 75-stocks and funds avoided since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 21.7-weeks earlier. There were three-buy signals in addition to 207-buy signals in the prior five weeks. Although the stock market bear remained in effect, it was beginning to display weakness. Some of the Aug buy signals retained hold signals through late 2007 and early 2008, while several others were reversed with sell signals a few months later. Energy related buy signals in Aug 2002, however, held strongly through the December 2002-record-bear and lasted until late 2008. There were 29-sell signals on this weekend, normal September stock market bearishness occurred.

Summary of Stocks and Funds with Buy and Sell Signals This past Week

To maintain appropriate security, you can see the Mid-term Indicant "buy/sell" signals for stocks and funds for this week by clicking here. It is in the member’s only section.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Bull and Bear Signals This Weekend

As stated last week, “other than the Dow Utilities, all other remaining major indices remain as bears. Utilities continued resistance to bearish ambition suggests the heart and soul of bullish seasonality will be normal this year. This usually occurs in late September or early October.

Click the following link that will take you to the Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant models.

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/STI-Mkts/STI-10-Indices/STI08.htm

Stop Loss Management

For your longer-term holdings where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 54.3% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 122.6% and the S&P500 is up 51.1% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 123.4% since October 9, 2002. All of the major indices were at new lows on the same week in 2002, which is a common attribute for bottoming. That will again be an attribute to monitor in coming months. Historical standards and political climate support continued bullishness during 2011 in spite of recent bearishness and souring economic news.

The NASDAQ is down 50.9% since its last weekly secular peak on March 9, 2000. The S&P500 is down 23.1% since its similar secular peak on March 23, 2000. The Dow is down by 4.1% since January 13, 2000 when it peaked from the 1990’s roaring bull. As stated the past several years in this report, do not be surprised at the NASDAQ equaling its March 9, 2000 high until after 2025. One should note that buy and hold so far this century is a loser, as the stock market has been flat to bearish for the last eleven years.

The NASDAQ year-to-date performance was bearish by 26.9% through this week in 2001. The NASDAQ finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with standards of post-election-year-bearishness.

The NASDAQ was down by 32.6% through this weekend in 2002. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with the mid-term year’s historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years.

The NASDAQ YTD 2003 performance was up 37.9%. It finished up by 50.0% in 2003, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 6.5% from that year’s meandering bear market, but finished up by 8.6%. This was congruent with election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 1.6% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post election years. This was an excellent year, based on post election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was down by 0.6% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which again maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year. It was up by 7.5% at this time in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%, which was consistent with pre-election year bullishness. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003 bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That accelerated the bear and added depth to its decline.

The NASDAQ was down by 11.4% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. It was the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.

It was up 24.7% on this weekend in 2009 and finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior Mid-term cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was down 3.0% on this weekend last year. It finished 2010 up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years.

The Dow is down 2.9% this year. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are down 6.7% and 6.5%, respectively. This contrasts, sharply, with historical standards. The last bearish pre-election year was in 1939.

The Dow is down 20.6% since its last weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is down 13.2% since its last peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is down 25.0% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. This coincides with political coziness in Washington D.C.

Bull market expirations are not as obviating with simultaneous peaking like bear markets are with simultaneous bottoming among the major indices. As you can see, the stock market continues to struggle beyond where it was prior to the great bear market of 2007-2008. In spite of that though, a few indices have eclipsed pre-crash highs, as noted by the S&P600 nine weeks ago. That was the second time this year such accomplishment has been enjoyed. However, comfort by capital markets eclipsing 2007 cyclical peaks remains elusive. Bearish aggression in four of the past five weeks clearly demonstrate repulsions to bettering 2007 peak prices. The index closest to achieving its 2007 cyclical peak is the NAS100. It is 3.2% shy.

The NAS100 topped its pre-crash highs of 2007/8 several weeks ago. It, along with other major indices similar behavior, retreated below those peaks. Several indices have never challenged those peak prices. The weakest index, S&P100, continues lagging. It is down by 27.5% since its Oct 9, 2007 weekly closing peak. As you can see from recent stock market behavior, suspicions about the 2009-2011 bull leg had merit. The reason for those suspicions was near maximal incongruence between political leadership and the underlying principles of capital markets. The Dec 12, 2010 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report discussed this phenomenon.

The Dow is up 71.7% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 95.5% and the S&P500 is up 73.5% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 105.8% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was/is indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. Such a successor bear cycle is now underway.

The current bull cycle is believed to be the classical mid-term election year bullish starting point ahead of the presidential pre-election year, which is now underway. The pre-election year is the most bullish along the four-year cycle. In essence, the firing of incumbent politicians in the U.S. generally arouses the bull. It takes a while for the newly elected to follow their paths of corruption and learn the ease of spending other people’s money. The stock market bull takes advantage during such phenomena. The stock market bull recognized this potential in August 2010 and major congressional employee turnover manifested in November 2010. The bull discontinued expressing its delight in that the past several weeks.

Keep your eye on the daily stock market report.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for a couple of years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets both free and controlled are not constant. This will result in a massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation. As you have seen the past few weeks, the potential for a massive and long-lasting bear is possible, as dilettantes the world wide continue converting their currencies to meaningless expressions.

As promised by Bernanke in late 2008, the discount rate (and prime) rate continue holding flat from their depressed levels. The fed funds closing rate and call money also continue flat and very depressed. The 2012 forecast suggests values closer to zero than any other value. Bernanke recently promised more of the same for the next two years. Of course, such promises should not be taken seriously. Those sort of folks have been breaking promises for centuries. Other similar sort of folks claim low interest rates are creating a cumulative bubble that will burst, resulting in generational calamity.

The stock market is anticipating either high interest rates, inflationary pressures, or both. Of course, until that happens, corporate earnings will continue to influence stock market behavior.

The 3-month T-Bill remains flat and depressed, along with short-term CD’s. After three consecutive weeks of zero yields, the three month yielded 0.1% seven weeks ago, up to 0.5% six weeks ago, back down to 0.1% five weeks ago, and finally back to 0.0% the past four weeks. The Fed may be reacting to the stock market by lowering rates with bearish behavior and raising during bullish spurts. So far, that correlates.

The Euro jumped to Red Bull status 33-weeks ago. It remains as a Red Bull, but still troubled. As stated the past several weeks, it is hovering without direction. That is interesting for a currency that may not exist in a few years.

The Canadian dollar and the Japanese Yen remain strong and continue strengthening. The CA$ moved in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) last week.

Gold’s optimistic forecast remains at $1600/oz by 2012. As you can see, it is tracking above its high-end forecasted value and it remains a Red Bull. It is trading well above the 2012 yearend forecast at above $1800/oz. Its recent bullish behavior is indeed impressive. The $2,000/oz.-forecast by 2014 remains challenged, based on political dynamics. For example, reduced government spending should strengthen paper currencies and with that, the price of gold would decrease. So far, this thesis remains weak. It may take a few more years before this political influence manifests. Statistical bullishness remains intact along the mid-term cycle. At the same webpage, you will notice oil is less stable with a mild bearish bias, but with increased bearish pressure the past few weeks. It became a yellow bear ten weeks ago, but bounced north off yellow, like all good bulls do. However, it fell again below yellow five weeks ago on souring economic news and continuing to the south. This is favorable, however, to the North American economy.

Commodity prices, overall, were bearish in fourteen of the last 18-weeks. Souring economic forecasts continue dampening commodities bullish cycle. Current configurations are no longer expecting a bullish surge. Most are without much volatility and trading in the neutral zone.

Mortgage rates are moving bearishly. They did not find comfort at their first Red Curve interaction since late 2008 on Feb 11, 2011. After falling sharply four weeks ago on souring economic news, they enjoyed a nice bullish bounce two weeks ago and mixed this past week.

Overall, hard economic data is supportive of lackluster economic behavior and non-threatening toward inflation or deflation.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010. It is up 15.0%, annualizing at 15.4% since then. As stated 18-weeks ago, the Mid-term Indicant is no longer detecting a troubling future for gold. Unfortunately, this fund has not paralleled the price of gold the past several weeks. Of course, its constituents exceed the singularity of gold, one could be a bit critical of the mix of those constituents. Managers appear to have bought into the gold bubble hype, while gold is increasingly one of the few remaining trustworthy assets one can have.

Fidelity Gold, Fund #28 received an MTI buy signal on Jul 22, 2011. It is up 4.7% since that buy signal, even though gold prices were up much more than that the past six weeks. Vanguard Gold continues to outperform Fidelity. It would be better to move to Vanguard the next time you see a buy signal for Vanguard Gold even with some of the recent criticisms directed at Vanguard.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, was up 144.9% from since the Mid-term Indicant buy signal April 5, 2003 until its sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 12.3%, annualized at 12.6% since the more recent buy signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, was up 107.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on December 6, 2003 until the next sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, following a couple of buy/sell cycles since late 2008. It is up 24.2%, annualized at 24.9%, since its Sep 17, 2010 buy signal.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, was up 174.2% from its August 16, 2002 buy signal to the Mid-term Indicant sell on October 3, 2008. It was down 18.4% since that sell signal and the buy signal on January 8, 2010. The Mid-term Indicant signaled buy on Oct 8, 2010. It is up 8.9% since then, annualizing at 9.8%.

The Quick-term and Near-term signaled, sell, for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources this past weekend after a very short period of holding in last week’s bullish spurt. It was up 242.4% (annualized at 44.8%) since the Quick-term buy signal on March 26, 2003 until the September 2008 sell signal. It was up over 25.0%, annualized at 29.0% from its Quick-term buy signal on Sep 15, 2010 and the Quick-term sell signal on Aug 8, 2011.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for the GLD-ETF#11 on December 11, 2008. It is up 127.2% since that buy signal, annualizing at 46.0%. It gained 81.4% from its August 3, 2005 buy signal until the September 8, 2008 sell signal. Its annualized gain during that hold period amounted to 27.1%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on April 24, 2009 and it gained 17.3% until its sell signal on Feb 4, 2010. It received a sell signal from the Near-term Indicant on Jul 27, 2010, but received a new buy signal on Aug 9, 2010. It was up by 12.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 28.0% at the time of the Near-term sell signal on Jan 20, 2011. It was up 2.0% since that sell signal when the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Fri, Feb 18, 2011. The near-term model lost an opportunity of about 2% between Jul 27 and Aug 9, 2010. It enjoyed an approximate 7.0% gain since the Near-term Indicant buy signal on Feb 18, 2011. The NTI signaled buy on Jul 6, 2011. It is up 22.0% since then, annualizing at 141.1%.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.

The lone index retaining the bull signal is the DJU. It is up 9.1% since its bull signal on Sep 17, 2010, annualizing at 9.5%.

The remaining major indices with bear signals are down by an average of 1.6% since their bear signals on Aug 5, 2011, including the NASDAQ100’s bear signal on Aug 19, 2011.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $30,015,060. That beats buy and hold performance of $1,710,065 on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $141,743. That beats buy and hold’s $114,994 on a December 31, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $216,610. That beats buy and hold’s $86,003 on an October 18, 1985 $10,000 investment. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1655.2%, 23.3%, and 151.9%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history.

Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 74.9% since then.

Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy in 2009, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation for the most part. The Short-term Bull displayed attributes of a thoroughbred in 2009 and thus no opportunities were available to shorting the stock market since the April 3, 2009 sell signal, which approximates the normal time to buy this fund. The Short-term Indicant is signaling hold for QID, adding some hope for a Mid-term buy signal for MF#22.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 288.3% (annualized at 14.5%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,035-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report - Summary

Prices fell below NTI Blue. Apparently, the late August rally was a mere bullish spurt.

Force Vectors shifted “sharply south” today. There is no need to wait for them to fall below Pressure and/or into bearish domains. The crisp shift in Force Vectors on Friday correlates with a 92% probability of Force falling into bearish domains and quickly.

Restating the reasons for state of readiness and reasons for the quick sell signals. 1) This was a low Pressure stock market bull. Its newness, coupled with low Pressure, is threatening to the stock market bull along the shorter-term cycles. As you saw, the baby bull could not withstand such low pressure. 2) Although the VIX is reactionary, it remains as a Red Bull. Even reactionary based Red Bulls should be respected. Its contrarian nature is not yet friendly to the short-term stock market bull. The VIX is configured for bullish aggression for another week or so. Although the VIX is not the predictive element, it projects overall stock market bearishness. 3) The major indices and several of the ETF’s remain as Yellow Bears. Yellow Bears are jaundiced and dangerous to any newly forming short-term bull cycle. As you saw the past two days, the baby bull had no chance. 4) Congress is returning to D.C. That is historically bearish. However, an anti-executive branch congress is usually bullish. Political bickering and finger-pointing in DC is usually very bullish. Unfortunately, it is anticipated the President is going to use his rescheduled speech from next Wed to next Thu to gain political points against an obstinate Congress. 5) Volume remains mediocre. Strong sustainable bulls usually enjoy significant volume jumps during the early days of the cycle. The Indicant Volume Indicator’s robustness has paralleled bearish aggression. Traders tried to get a low volume bull to manifest, but difficult to do without volume.

Trading strategies are repeated from last Thursday evening with additional comments. The strategy section in this newsletter recommends buying some VIX calls or SPY puts to protect against potential bearishness. Significantly out of the money (more than 8-points) on VIX calls will minimize risks. If the VIX increases and President Obama relaxes drilling constraints next Thursday, Dec or Jan VIX puts will be a great play for those of you keen on trading. Buy real cheap ones and significantly out of the money next Tuesday or Wednesday ahead of his speech. Even if he disappoints, there are many other attributes that will potentially yield you a nice profit. This will play out well if the VIX enjoys a healthy bullish bounce tomorrow and/or next Tuesday. As you saw, the VIX and SPY Puts jumped solidly to the north. It is believed this bearish cycle will be short in duration, but it could be deep. Much depends on the political dynamics shaping up.

The paradox right now is that the presidential pre-election year is the most bullish. The stock market is down for the year and it has not finished a pre-election year bearishly since 1939. September is the most bearish month because political leadership returns from vacation howling and barking a bit more loudly than normal. So, we are officially contained in the bearish seasonality period.

Assuming Force Vectors fall below Pressure and into bearish domains, which is supported by statistically significant probabilities, it is just a matter of waiting for the next bullish cycle. This will be closely monitored. Keep in mind the heart and soul of bullish seasonality does not officially start for about six more weeks.

Near-term, Quick-term, Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Index Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and ten new bears. Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling bull for contrarian VIX and non-contrarian DJU. Combined, they are up 23.3% since their bull signals an average of 3.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 368.3%.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and three new bears.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bull for three major indices, including contrarian VIX. They are up 14.7% since their bull signals an average of 2.4-weeks ago. This annualizes at 320.5%.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling bear for six non-contrarian indices. They are down by an average of 5.1% since their bear signals an average of 4.2-weeks ago.

Indicant Volume Indicators

Sep 2-Fri-Same as yesterday. Strong bearish aggression to close out the week resulted in a flat market for the week.

Sep 1-Thu-Below recent average volume will not inspire the stock market bear, although the bull remains vulnerable.

Aug 31-Wed-Volume was up a bit on placid bullish behavior and relatively good economic news. That adds bullish support, but mildly so.

Aug 30-Tue-Volume was again mediocre. However, bullish behavior at this critical juncture supports bullish bias.

Aug 29-Mon-Volume was disappointedly unimpressive on bullish aggression. However, too many other short-term attributes continue favoring the stock market bull.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

The Near-term Indicant generated two buy signals and 19-sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for ten-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 9.4% since their buy signals an average of 2.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 247.0%.

In addition to buy and sell signals, the NTI is avoiding one-ETF. It is ETF#17-IYR. It is down 5.1% since the near-term sell signal on Aug 2, 2011. It was the only ETF that did not qualify for a new term buy signal in the late August bullish spurt. If Friday’s sell signals hold through next Tuesday, these performance statistics will change.0

The Quick-term Indicant generated one buy signals and eight sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 9-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 17.1% since their buy signals an average of 17.3-weeks ago. This annualizes at 51.4%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 14-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 5.2% since the QTI sell signal an average of 4.2-weeks ago.

Contrarian Funds

ETF#03-Natural Resources. The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Friday. Price fell below NTI Blue and Force’s turn to the south was of the crispness that correlates with a 92% chance of falling below Pressure and into bearish domains and quickly.

ETF#11-Gold and Precious Metals is up 127.2% since the QTI signaled buy on December 11, 2008. Annualized growth is at 46.0%. Bearish yellow is a good price to set stop losses for a longer-term hold position, which is at $141.67 and still rising. Relaxation is in order since your buy price approximates $80.65 versus today’s closing price of $183.24.

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 8, 2011, as Force penetrated bullish domains. It is up 22.0% since that buy signal, annualizing at 141.1%. NTI Green is above buy price and the next near-term sell signal will not occur until price’s interaction with NTI Green and a pathetically configured Force Vector. Its Force Vector has started moving north again with high Pressure last Wednesday and as was stated last Wednesday, “that is bullish.” Since then gold has skyrocketed on existing lofty positions.

Click this sentence for additional charting and current forecasting of the actual price of gold.

All prior comments in this section remain in effect, but eliminated here for brevity purposes. You will be notified when and if such commentary requires adjustment.

ETF#14-TLT-Long Government received a buy signal on Fri, Jul 29, 2011 from the Quick-term Indicant model. It is up 14.9% since that buy signal, annualizing at 153.3%. The Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Friday. As stated most of this past week, this fund could be a bit jumpy in the next several days.

ETF#31-QID received a buy again this Friday by the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant. Its Force Vector cycle started to the north and with high Pressure. Do not be surprised at it exceeding $60 within ten days. QQQ is retaining its hold signal, but will probably endure a sell signal next Tuesday.

The Quick-term signaled buy for ETF#32-VXX on Aug 8, 2011. It is up 19.3% since then, annualizing at 277.4%. It is up 74.0% since the Near-term Indicant signaled buy on Jul 28, 2011, annualizing at 739.9%. This ETN will be abandoned once the stock market stabilizes, as its tracking to VIX is unreliable. However, current performance levels suggest some difficulty in its abandonment.

Major ETF Events

Sep 02-Fri-There is no more drama. The near-term cyclical bear has resumed dominance.

Sep 01-Thu-Bearish aggression today did not upset bullish configurations. However, if prices fall below NTI Blue and Force falls into bearish domains and/or below Pressure, sell signals will ensue. This drama should be resolved within a few days.

Aug 31-Wed-Several more ETF’s crossed above QTI bearish yellow curve. Several, however, still retain yellow bear status.

Aug 30-Tue-The stock market bull held up very well today, but its embryonic nature remains vulnerable. If prices can continue departing from NTI Blue, this bull can mature and dominate. If prices fall below NTI Blue with negative Force (in bearish domains/), it will expire.

Aug 29-Mon-Several more prices moved above NTI Blue with Force above Pressure and into bullish domains. This is a low Pressure bull and its birth is not yet complete.

Current Strategy-Short-term Indicant-Sep 2, 2011-Recent buy/bull signals turned out to be a mere late summer rally. As stated last Thursday, “the VIX is nearing potential for a solid rebound. If you want some insurance against prices falling below NTI Blue, buy some VIX calls or some SPY puts to protect against these low Pressure and embryonic hold positions.” As you saw, the bear is asserting its influence.

Reverse Tangential Projections

The tour is still being developed, but most of you are now familiar with the Near-term bull/bear cycles as well as the tangential protections and reverse tangential bearish detectors.

Click Quick-term Indicant, Near-term, and Short-term for all 31-ETF’s.

Other links:

Short-term Indicant for DJIA and NASDAQ

Short-term Indicant Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Table for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Near-term, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant for Major Indices

Divergence versus Convergence

The stock market enjoyed bullish convergence the week before last week. That interrupted four consecutive weeks of combined bearish convergence/divergence, which is a solid bearish configuration. The major indices continue not finding comfort eclipsing 2007 cyclical peaks in spite of last week’s bullish behavior. In spite of significant bearishness late last week, the stock market was basically uneventful. It was mixed and resulting weekly performance bordered minutiae.

Indicant Conclusion

Unfortunately, political chitchat stifled bullish aspirations last week. Egotistical needs and political manipulations for vote-getting purposes over powered the stock market bull late last week, as unemployment statistics highlighted the inabilities of those who engage in political chitchat.

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the Quick-term and Near-term attributes can shift quickly.

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

The daily updates are on the following link.

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc, click the following hyperlink:

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

Happy Investing,

www.indicant.net

09/04/2011