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| Apr 18, 2008
- VIX - It continues disrespecting recent cyclical configurations.
This index crashed through a well established tangential line that formed
nicely at or very near the prior cyclical minimums of bearish yellow. The
current configurations support bullish behavior with one major
development. The bearish yellow curve's recent contact with this
tangential blue line has been met a VIX bullish response, which
corresponds with stock market bearishness. As you can see, bearish yellow
is nearing contact. If it crashes below the tangential blue line, expect
bullish sustainability. If it does not, expect stock market bearishness. |
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| Apr
18, 2008 - S&P600 - This index is holding well above bullish red, but
the bearish yellow is nearing an inflection point which should allow for
the construction of a tangential line. Such a construction will increase
obviation on bullish sustainability issues. |
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| Apr 17,
2008 - VIX - Continues moving bearishly with little respect for recent
minimums. Although this is a bullish attribute, its bearish leg is mature.
This is increasing probability of bearish stock market behavior with the
VIX's impending bullish behavior. |
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| Apr
17, 2008 - S&P600 - Index appears tiring from its recent bullish
cycle, while maintaining bullish attributes. We are now awaiting an
inflection of yellow, which will assist in describing potential
sustainability of this bullish expression. However, do not be surprised at
bearish behavior in the next few days. |
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| Apr 16, 2008
- VIX - It fell below the base Y-tangential on today's bullish stock
market. That is the first time in in over a year it has expressed that
magnitude of bearishness. Although this would normally be bullish for the
stock market, there are a couple of hurdles. It's Force Vector is rising,
which supports VIX bullishness and stock market bearishness. Also, the
Y-tangential line is based off yellow minimums. The yellow curve can
maintain congruent expectations with a bullishly moving VIX and a bearish
stock market. |
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| Apr
16, 2008 - S&P600 - Force Vector continues moving bearishly while this
index climbed above Red today. Do not be surprised at a bearish response
before the end of the week. |
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| Apr 15, 2008
- VIX - There is not much difference from yesterday. The VIX continues
vacillating near a cyclical conclusion with the one to follow being
bullish (bearish for the stock market). |
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| Apr
15, 2008 - S&P600 - The small bullish expression with aggressively
declining Force Vectors suggest bearish aggression in the next few days. |
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| Apr 14, 2008
- VIX is attempting to restart a bullish cycle. The configuration
appears to be ready to find incongruent relationships with past bottoms.
There is still some room to maintain that congruency with a few more
bearish expressions, which would be bullish for the stock market. However,
the overall market will succumb to bearish requirements in the event VIX
moves to the north. Keep in mind VIX is dependent on the market, but its
patterns usually have more symmetry and quite often used for monitoring
bias. Right now, it appears to be shaping up for a bearish bias for the
stock market. |
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| Apr
14, 2008 - S&P600 - The S&P600 is expected to contact yellow before
red in this cycle. That adds to bearish potential. In other words bearish
yellow may not act as a floor for bouncing the bear into a state of
misery. If this index contacts bearish yellow with a bullish cycling VIX
Index, expect bearish domination. The only hope here for bullish dominance
is for bearish yellow's bottoms to shift from being progressively lower to
becoming progressively higher. That would definitely be bullish. |
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| Apr 12, 2008 - VIX
- Recent bearish yellow
curves have nestled at the underlying blue base trend line. The last
cycle, though, nestled much higher at a newly formed green baseline. The
bearish yellow curve is now positioned directly on the green line. if that
becomes the bounce point, then the stock market is about to endure
additional bearishness. More bullishness was desired and possible if the
blue line would have been yellow's bounce point. |
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| Apr 12, 2008 - S&P600 -
As sated last
Thursday, the S&P600, as well as other major indices, endured a technical
configuration suggesting stock market cyclical peaking. That coupled with
too many "yellow bears" in the Quick-term Indicant's ETF tracking elevated
too much risk in holding several recent buy signals on a Quick-term basis. |
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| Apr 12,
2008 - ETF's. The blow is an example of six ETF's tracked by the
Quick-term Indicant. You will notice that five of the six are yellow
bears. ETF#3 is contrarian energy and does not succumb to the same
economic fundamentals as the other five. You will notice two buy signals
in the recent past. Those buy signals are uncharacteristic since they
occurred during yellow bear configurations. The Quick-term Indicant seldom
signals buy with that characteristic. You will notice the Quick-term
Indicant signaled sell for four of these ETF's last Friday. ETF#05-XLF did
not receive a buy signal recently. Fundamentals did not support it, even
though it had similar technical attributes. At any rate, risk of continued
holding when the bearish yellow curve acted as a ceiling to bullish
movement is too high.
You should not continue holding these and the other ETF's that endured a
sell signal this weekend. |
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