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Apr 22, 2008 - Click here to see VIX |
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Apr 22, 2008 - Click here to see S&P600 |
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Apr 21,
2008 - QQQQ 2002-2008 - Yellow Bear Implosion - Vector Pressure is
moving south after price penetration above bearish yellow curve. The
correction from this point ranges from 5% to 8% in normal market behavior.
However, scan your eyeballs to the extreme left side of the chart. As you
can see, there is a significant probability of a 50% slide to the south.
Price rises from south of bearish yellow to yellow invites that sort of
bearish potential. Sour economic fundamentals elevate that probability.
Scanning from the extreme left of the chart to late 2004, mid-2005, and
late 2006 illustrate no bearish responses to this phenomena. As you can
see, unimpeded bullish cycle resumed. With the exception of 2006, bearish
yellow configured as a bouncing point to bearish behavior, while 2002 only
endured a 50% bearish attack. Sour economic fundamentals are biased more
toward 2002 type of behavior that 2004, 2005, or 2006 behavior. 2007 did
not incur such bearish configurations, even though that was when Bear
Stearns and related companies were expanding the pinnacle of their extreme
stupidity and/or dishonesty. There is no doubt that this is a multiple
choice observation; 1) stupidity, 2) dishonesty, 3) both. Picking any of
the three choices will not be wrong. The stock market does not have short
memories of that sort of fundamental behavior. Thus the conservatism on
generating buy signals in the face of aggressive bullish expressions.
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| Apr 21,
2008 - VIX - Bearish yellow is about to contact Y-minimum cycle
tangential line. A strong bullish implication can follow this event as a
major technical barrier to stock market bullishness, so to speak, is about
to be shattered. The only event preventing this would be a dynamic bearish
expression in the next two days. The VIX would be bullish in that case and
thus move up to prevent bearish yellow from dropping to lower levels.
Conflicting configurations illustrate a declining Force Vector and a
rising index. Today's increase is somewhat ominous with respect to the
bullish stock market cycle now underway. |
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21, 2008 S&P600 - The weakest index in bear markets and the strongest
index in bull markets was mildly bearish today. This suggests the market
remains a bear, since the S&P 600 was bearish on an otherwise flat day. |
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Apr 20, 2008 ETF's
week ending April 18, 2008. Notice non-contrarian ETF #01, #02, #04,
and #06 are struggling to climb above bearish yellow. That does not mean
they will not be successful in their effort, but the energy expended to
date has attributes suggesting exhaustion. In other words, there has been
little economic substance to justify it other than some impressive
corporate profit reports; many of which will be reviewed as to sector
intensive, as opposed to economic breadth. ETF#05 is also non-contrarian
but represents the sector of incompetence; that is banking. It's bullish
red curve has collapsed to that of bearish yellow. The last time that
occurred on any index or ETF was in 2001/2. ETF#03 is contrarian and due
to its energy sector influence can continue to enjoy bullish behavior. |
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| Apr 20,
2008 - ETF's.....repeated from last week. The blow is an example of six ETF's tracked by the
Quick-term Indicant. You will notice that five of the six are yellow
bears. ETF#3 is contrarian energy and does not succumb to the same
economic fundamentals as the other five. You will notice two buy signals
in the recent past. Those buy signals are uncharacteristic since they
occurred during yellow bear configurations. The Quick-term Indicant seldom
signals buy with that characteristic. You will notice the Quick-term
Indicant signaled sell for four of these ETF's last Friday. ETF#05-XLF did
not receive a buy signal recently. Fundamentals did not support it, even
though it had similar technical attributes. At any rate, risk of continued
holding when the bearish yellow curve acted as a ceiling to bullish
movement is too high.
You should not continue holding these and the other ETF's that endured a
sell signal this weekend. |
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