| Big board's bear cycle is historically
mature in magnitude suggesting expiration of dynamic bearishness. Bearish Force
Vector, Fv, is mature and nestled just above Vector Pressure. As you can
there have been two bullish spurts and three sustaining bullish cycles
since early 2007. In essence each yellow inflection point is succeeded by
sustainable reversals or spurts. The bullish spurts since early 2007 have
ranged from four to eight weeks. Historical standards suggest this will be
a spurt followed by deep bearish expressions before the heart and soul of
bullish seasonality. |
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| Indicant Volume Indicator has pinnacled,
suggesting little interest in obviating continuing bearishness. Declining
volume should invoke more jittery volatility with noise in both bullish
and bearish direction, but with a mild underlying bullish bias. Once the
volume's lethargic cycle completes, cyclical and possible trend obviations
should manifest. Solidification of directional intensity most likely occurs
after August option expiration, 8/15/08F and that directional intensity
could be either way. What is being called in this embryonic stage is a
bullish spurt and after option expirations, obviating factors should
manifest. |
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| NASDAQ volume has also slacked. It's
recent robust cycle was not as crisp as the big boards. Although the
NASDAQ endured a bearish cycle, it was incongruent with other major
indices, suggesting less bearish commitment. The only issue confronting
bullish possibilities is the lack of lead-in volume. |
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| VIX Index bullish yellow cycle is coming
under bear attack, which suggests overall stock market non-bearish for a
few weeks or longer. It's bullish red curve collapsed at a lower maximum
than previous red bull collapse. Cyclically, this is non-bearish for stock
market. Regardless of pundit mumbo-jumbo, the VIX is not entirely
irrational. It is knowing when and when not to look at it. |
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| NASDAQ bearish yellow inflecting. Notice
recent inflections shifted with two head-fake bull rallies since January
2007 and three bull cycles approximating a quarter duration. Probability
of a compertz wave curve with bearish resumption within three weeks is
less than 33%. Probability of a 8-12 week bullish cycle (no spurt) at
greater than 72%. However, do not be surprised at wild day to day
volatility. There will be little fundamental reason for this behavior. It
is the stock market, where emotional variables can drive significant
spurts which can lead to appropriate fundamental adjustments. The real
bear remains scheduled for 2009, where $200+ oil will be tantamount.
|
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| ETF#10-IBB-Health is up over 10% since QTI
signaled buy on July 10. Do not be surprised at some profit taking here,
but the money will rotate within the sectors. |
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| The QTI signaled sell today for ETF#31 -
QID - Bear Market with only a 6.1% gain since late June's buy signal. Some
of you made more with the stop loss sell at $44.50 after it crossed $48
several days ago. You
will notice Vector Pressure moving south as this fund never found comfort
above bullish red curve. Once this bearish cycle completes it will be
reassessed on the near-term horizon. Do not be surprised at jittery
nervousness as Vector Pressure crosses into its bearish domains. The
market is set for some pretty wild volatility. |
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