As you can see, the $10,000
invested only in presidential post election years is less than $10,000 as
of the end of 2005. That is raw dollars. If inflation adjusted, it would
amount to less than $500.
Contrasting, that same $10,000
invested since the 1830's only during presidential pre-election years
amounted to $302,066 as of the end of 2007. As you can see, the
pre-election year is the most bullish of the four year cycles. Similarly,
that $10,000 invested only in presidential election years amounted to
$63,203 as of the end of 2008. It was at $95,473 at the end of 2004, but
2008's bear market was most bearish election year on record. So, history
does not always repeat itself.
Investments made only during the
Mid-term Election Year would be up to $28,773 since the 1830's as of 2006.
The Mid-term Election Year is where market bottoms typically occur. This
did not occur in 2006, which was extraordinarily bullish.
The bottom line is this: Of the
four years along the presidential election cycle, only one of those years
is a loosing year since 1832. That is the presidential post election year.
For more details, please read
the July 19, 2009 Weekly
Stock Market Report.
