Bullish Spurt

The bottom portion of the chart reveals a rising Force Vector (light gray). As you can see, it is bouncing off Vector Pressure (the gold colored curve). That bounce is threatening to the Near-term Bear signal. Notice the S&P500 price movement. It is hovering around the Quick-term Bearish Yellow Curve. Each drop below bearish yellow has been invigorating to the bull. However, as you can see, the Short Term Indicant's S&P500 is having difficulty escaping the gravity of bearish yellow.

Although difficult to see, Vector Pressure (gold curve) remains in bearish domains. It is very close to crossing into bullish domains. If it does, the Near-term Indicant will have to signal bull.

The VIX's bullish blue curve collapsed this past week. As you can see, its contrarian nature was pure, as its Force Vector shied away from crossing above Vector Pressure and into bullish domains. It would not be surprising to see the VIX fall to the bearish yellow curve in the next few days, which is a bouncing point during normal bull/bear cycles. In other words, the bear may not be inspired until VIX contacts bearish yellow. The term, NOODI means "no obviations of directional intensity" on a short-term basis. You should also notice that VIX's Pressure (gold curve) remains in bullish domains.

Strong sustainable stock market bulls do not discriminate during conception. All sectors participate. As you can see, the healthcare sector (ETF#10-IBB) is not participating. It is a yellow bear and highlight a common attribute of bullish spurts. Bullish spurts are commonly referred to as sucker rallies.

Viewing the above and below charts identify how both of these weak ETF's participated strongly in the new bull market that was born in March 2009. There are several such sectors that are not participating with much gusto with last week's bullish behavior. All sustainable short-term bull cycles do not discriminate. A solid sustainable bull would invite Japan's participation.

The long-term cyclical trend through 2012, suggest dynamic bearishness, while the long-term linear trend continues with normal bullishness. Financial advisers point to the long-term linear trend. Their advice is simple. They argue that the stock market always goes up over the long-term. That is a very popular view and popularity is an element the stock market prefers to not honor. The phenomenon of commonality disallows it. It has been punishing that line of thinking so far this century. The below chart is the Mid-term Indicant's S&P500 Index, plotted since 1950. Notice it is still enjoying positive Vector Pressure (gold curve), but Force Vector remains in bearish domains.

Modifying the same set of data, as the above chart, but with a different starting point, suggests a completely different long-term forecast. This approach is along the same lines as Al Gore and his cronies use to promote global warming. All time based forecast must identify a starting point. The forecast's conclusion is entirely dependent on that starting point. For example, the absolute starting point of the earth's temperature is at its creation. Since it was over a million degrees Fahrenheit at that moment, one can easily argue earth is obviously cooling. One can pick a "convenient" starting point to propel their arguments, which is the case with Gore and his loony pals.

The S&P500, originating in the year 2000, offers a more glorious future for the bull when using the cyclicality of bearish yellow and bullish red. The linear trend, although, is bearish. Scroll down to the last line.

Forecasts are wrong significantly more often than not. If one does it accurately, chalk it to good luck and rest assured that success will not repeat.