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Long-term Indicant 1920-1930

In November 1922 the Long Term Indicant crossed below the LT Trip Line. This reflected favorable economic conditions that would fuel explosive stock market growth. The Ford Production System, Edison's light bulb, Tesla's electric motor, etc. were now primed to stimulate unprecedented economic growth and expanding prosperity.

As you can see from the chart, the LT Indicant remained below the LT Trip Line until September 1929. Remember, it is bullish for the LT Indicant to be below the LT Trip Line.

In the months preceding the stock market crash of 1929, there were severe swings in inflation and deflation. By October 1929, the market had had enough of it and decided to take a breather. And it did with a severe crash that contributed to depressed economic activity for the next few years. 

In late 1929, a prominent Harvard economist said, "Stock prices have reached a permanently high plateau and will resume their advance." Twenty years later stock prices were still below where the economistís advice was given. The LT Indicant does not subscribe to subjective opinions and is defiant to any form of credentialism. That is why the LT Indicant is accurate in its assessment of the long-term direction of the stock market.

The LT Indicant identified a 262% increase in the bull market from November 1922 through September 1929.

From the above chart you will notice the LT Indicant crossed below the LT Trip Line in late 1930, but no "buy signal" was generated. When the market is below the Lag Curve, it will not recommend "buy." This phenomenon reflects irrational trader emotion and at that time the perception of the stock market was negative by most people in and out of the stock market.

The market continued its massive decline for the next few years. It ultimately fell by nearly 90% from its pre-crash peak. It took  twenty years for the market to return to its pre-crash levels. The LT Indicant was above the LT Trip Line during most of those years and thus avoided "buying" into the stock market.

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