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Long-term Indicant 1940-1950

The LT Indicant recommended stock market avoidance from September 1937 until February 1944 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 136. Trader emotion was high and economic fundamentals were positive as the conclusion to the war was now predictable. However, this economic optimism was soon displaced with the returning veterans. The LT Indicant signaled "bear" in August 1946 with the Dow at 189.

This "in the market" recommendation by the LT Indicant is one of the shortest in the 80 years of research. It lasted slightly over two years from February 1944 until August 1946. However, the market increased 40% in that short period of time.

As you can tell from the above chart, the market moved nervously in a sideways fashion after the LT Indicant's sell signal in August 1946. This reflected the difficulty of transforming the war-time economy to a post-war economy.

The LT Indicant signaled "buy" again in August 1949 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 179. This was the beginning of the longest bull market this century. The next sell signal would not occur until 1969. During this time the market grew by 388%.

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