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S&P 500 - Large-cap Index Mid-term Indicant Performance Tables Since 1950

Scroll down to see performance and bull/bear signals and accessibility to historical charts.

This was updated on Jan 1, 2014 and will again be updated at the conclusion of the next presidential cycle in 2017.

Click this sentence to see current performance tables.

 

Bear markets during the 1970's, 1987, 1998, and two during the 2000-decade helped propel the Indicant's performance advantage over buy and hold by 117.7%. Buy and hold has increased a $10,000 investment in 1950 to $1,084,452. The Indicant's value is $2,361,263 by avoiding bear markets. This excludes considerations for taxes and commissions.

 

 
S&P500 Bull/Bear Cycles Click Chart Years Bull  Sig # Bull Sig Date Bull Sig Price Bear Sig # Bear Sig Date Bear Sig Price Weeks Held % Gain or Loss Indicant Value Buy/Hold Value Indicant Performance Advantage
0 Start N/A 01/06/50 16.98 N/A 01/06/50 16.98 N/A   $10,000 $10,000 0.0%
1 1949-1953 #01 01/06/50 16.98 #02 07/07/50 17.67 26 4.1% $10,406 $10,406 0.0%
2 1949-1953 #03 07/28/50 17.69 #04 04/17/53 24.62 142 39.2% $14,483 $14,499 -0.1%
3 1949-1953 #05 10/16/53 24.14 #01 11/30/56 45.08 163 86.7% $27,046 $26,549 1.9%
4 1953-1957 #02 12/07/56 47.04 #03 01/18/57 44.64 6 -5.1% $25,666 $26,290 -2.4%
5 1953-1957 #04 04/05/57 44.49 #05 08/23/57 44.51 20 0.0% $25,678 $26,213 -2.0%
6 1957-1961 #01 01/24/58 41.71 #02 02/26/60 56.16 109 34.6% $34,574 $33,074 4.5%
7 1957-1961 #03 06/03/60 56.23 #04 07/22/60 54.72 7 -2.7% $33,645 $32,226 4.4%
8 1957-1961 #05 08/26/60 57.60 #06 09/16/60 55.11 3 -4.3% $32,191 $32,456 -0.8%
9 1957-1961 #07 11/11/60 55.87 #01 05/18/62 63.82 79 14.2% $36,771 $37,585 -2.2%
10 1961-1965 #02 11/02/62 57.75 #01 05/06/66 87.84 183 52.1% $55,931 $51,731 8.1%
11 1965-1969 #02 11/11/66 81.94 #03 02/09/68 89.86 65 9.7% $61,337 $52,921 15.9%
12 1965-1969 #04 04/05/68 93.29 #05 02/21/69 99.79 46 7.0% $65,610 $58,769 11.6%
13 1965-1969 #06 03/28/69 101.51 #07 04/04/69 100.68 1 -0.8% $65,074 $59,293 9.7%
14 1965-1969 #08 04/11/69 101.65 #09 06/13/69 98.65 9 -3.0% $63,153 $58,098 8.7%
15 1965-1969 #10 09/12/69 94.13 #11 09/19/69 95.19 1 1.1% $63,864 $56,060 13.9%
16 1965-1969 #12 10/17/69 96.26 #13 11/28/69 93.81 6 -2.5% $62,239 $55,247 12.7%
17 1969-1973 #01 08/21/70 79.24 #02 07/30/71 95.58 49 20.6% $75,073 $56,290 33.4%
18 1969-1973 #03 08/20/71 98.33 #04 10/15/71 97.79 8 -0.5% $74,661 $57,591 29.6%
19 1969-1973 #05 12/03/71 97.06 #06 03/23/73 108.88 68 12.2% $83,753 $64,122 30.6%
20 1969-1973 #07 07/20/73 107.14 #08 08/10/73 104.77 3 -2.2% $81,900 $61,702 32.7%
21 1969-1973 #09 09/21/73 107.20 #10 11/09/73 105.30 7 -1.8% $80,449 $62,014 29.7%
22 1973-1977 #01 03/08/74 97.78 #02 03/29/74 93.98 3 -3.9% $77,322 $55,347 39.7%
23 1973-1977 #03 01/03/75 70.71 #04 03/25/77 99.06 116 40.1% $108,323 $58,339 85.7%
24 1973-1977 #05 06/17/77 99.97 #06 08/05/77 98.76 7 -1.2% $107,012 $58,163 84.0%
25 1973-1977 #07 11/25/77 96.69 #08 12/30/77 93.82 5 -3.0% $103,836 $55,253 87.9%
26 1977-1981 #01 04/07/78 90.17 #02 11/17/78 94.42 32 4.7% $108,730 $55,607 95.5%
27 1977-1981 #03 01/12/79 99.93 #04 02/09/79 97.87 4 -2.1% $106,489 $57,638 84.8%
28 1977-1981 #05 03/23/79 101.60 #06 05/11/79 98.52 7 -3.0% $103,261 $58,021 78.0%
29 1977-1981 #07 06/22/79 102.64 #08 03/21/80 102.31 39 -0.3% $102,929 $60,253 70.8%
30 1977-1981 #09 05/16/80 107.35 #10 08/28/81 124.08 67 15.6% $118,969 $73,074 62.8%
31 1977-1981 #11 12/04/81 126.26 #01 01/08/82 119.55 5 -5.3% $112,647 $70,406 60.0%
32 1981-1985 #02 04/02/82 115.12 #03 05/28/82 111.88 8 -2.8% $109,477 $65,889 66.2%
33 1981-1985 #04 07/16/82 111.07 #05 07/30/82 107.09 2 -3.6% $105,554 $63,068 67.4%
34 1981-1985 #06 08/20/82 113.02 #07 04/06/84 155.48 85 37.6% $145,209 $91,567 58.6%
35 1981-1985 #08 08/03/84 162.35 #09 12/07/84 162.26 18 -0.1% $145,128 $95,559 51.9%
36 1981-1985 #10 01/11/85 167.91 #01 10/23/87 248.22 145 47.8% $214,542 $146,184 46.8%
37 1985-1989 #02 01/29/88 257.07 #03 05/13/88 256.78 15 -0.1% $214,300 $151,225 41.7%
38 1985-1989 #04 06/03/88 266.45 #05 08/12/88 262.55 10 -1.5% $211,163 $154,623 36.6%
39 1985-1989 #06 09/30/88 271.91 #07 11/18/88 266.47 7 -2.0% $206,938 $156,932 31.9%
40 1985-1989 #08 12/23/88 277.87 #01 08/17/90 327.83 86 18.0% $244,145 $193,068 26.5%
41 1989-1993 #02 11/30/90 322.22 #01 04/01/94 445.77 174 38.3% $337,759 $262,527 28.7%
42 1993-1997 #02 07/08/94 449.55 #03 10/07/94 455.10 13 1.2% $341,928 $268,021 27.6%
43 1993-1997 #04 10/14/94 469.10 #05 11/25/94 452.29 6 -3.6% $329,676 $266,366 23.8%
44 1993-1997 #06 12/16/94 458.80 #01 10/27/00 1379.58 306 200.7% $991,312 $812,473 22.0%
45 1997-2001 #02 11/03/00 1426.69 #03 11/10/00 1365.98 1 -4.3% $949,128 $804,464 18.0%
46 1997-2001 #04 11/16/01 1138.65 #01 02/01/02 1122.20 11 -1.4% $935,416 $660,895 41.5%
47 2001-2005 #02 03/08/02 1164.30 #03 03/15/02 1166.14 1 0.2% $936,894 $686,773 36.4%
48 2001-2005 #04 11/01/02 900.96 #05 12/13/02 889.48 6 -1.3% $924,957 $523,840 76.6%
50 2001-2005 #06 01/10/03 927.55 #07 01/31/03 855.70 3 -7.7% $853,308 $503,946 69.3%
51 2001-2005 #08 03/21/03 895.72 #09 07/23/04 1086.20 70 21.3% $1,034,768 $639,694 61.8%
52 2001-2005 #10 08/20/04 1098.35 #11 10/22/04 1095.74 9 -0.2% $1,032,309 $645,312 60.0%
53 2001-2005 #12 10/29/04 1130.20 #01 01/04/08 1411.63 166 24.9% $1,289,364 $831,349 55.1%
54 2005-2009 #02 04/04/08 1370.40 #03 06/13/08 1360.03 10 -0.8% $1,279,607 $800,960 59.8%
55 2005-2009 #04 09/05/08 1242.31 #05 09/12/08 1251.69 1 0.8% $1,289,269 $737,155 74.9%
56 2005-2009 #06 04/03/09 842.50 #01 06/25/10 1076.76 64 27.8% $1,647,754 $634,134 159.8%
57 2009-2013 #02 07/09/10 1077.96 #03 08/27/10 1064.59 7 -1.2% $1,627,317 $626,967 159.6%
58 2009-2013 #04 09/17/10 1125.59 #05 08/05/11 1199.38 46 6.6% $1,733,998 $706,349 145.5%
59 2009-2013 #06 10/21/11 1238.25 #07 11/25/11 1158.67 5 -6.4% $1,622,558 $682,373 137.8%
60 2009-2013 #08 12/23/11 1265.33 #01 08/21/15 1970.89 191 55.8% $2,527,311 $1,160,713 117.7%
61 2013-2017 #02 10/16/15 2033.11 #03 12/11/15 2012.37 8 -1.0% $2,501,530 $1,185,141 111.1%
62 2013-2017 #04 03/04/16 1999.99 TBD 01/05/18 2743.15 96 37.2% $3,431,053 $1,615,518 112.4%

TBD Means there was no signal at the conclusion of 2017. They will be identified when the 2017-2021-charts are updated

 

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