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Indicant beats buy and hold......

 

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Indicant's MTI-RYS model outperforms Buy&Hold by 109.5% from 1900 through the last signal in this four year period.  Buy and hold's $10,000 invested in 1900 amounts to $8,716 on December 13, 1907. Indicant's $10,000 investment in 1900 increased to $18,257. See table below chart.

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No. of Bull/Bear Cycles Chart Bull Signal No. Bull Signal Event Trigger Bull Sig Date Bull Signal Price Chart Bear Signal No. Bear Signal Event Trigger Bear Sig Date Bear Signal Price MTI-RYS % Gain or <Loss> MTIRYS Account Balance Buy and Hold Account Balance Indicant Performance Advantage MTIRYS Bull Cycle Duration # of Weeks) MTIRYS Bear Cycle Duration # of Weeks)
  0 Beginning Investment

12/29/1899

65.73           $10,000 $10,000      
10 19 P>ITL 11/27/1903 44.25 1 P<ITL, R 1/18/1907 92.62 109.3% $19,685 $14,091 39.7% 164.0 46.0
11 2 P>ITL 12/6/1907 61.77 3 P<ITL, R 12/13/1907 57.29 -7.3% $18,257 $8,716 109.5% 1.0 2.0
12 4 P>ITL 12/27/1907 58.65

 

 

Year Incumbent Trip Line at start of BRS-1 Cycle BRS1 config @ conclusion of cycle Rule for BRS-1 Cycles Action @ conclusion of BRS-1 Cycle New Incumbent Trip Line Name Incumbent Trip Line at start of BRS-2 Cycle BRS2 config @ conclusion of cycle Rules for BRS-2 Cycles Action at conclusion of BRS-2 Cycle or when it becomes Hybrid New Incumbent Trip Line Name
1904 1903-Y-BRS-2-TLN Y C ATL 1904-Y-BRS-1-TLN 1904-Y-BRS-1-TLN R A ATL 1904-R-BRS-2-TLX
1905 1904-R-BRS-2-TLX R A EITL N/A 1904-R-BRS-2-TLX R A ATL 1905-R-BRS-2-TLX
1906 1905-R-BRS-2-TLX R A EITL N/A 1905-R-BRS-2-TLX R A ATL 1906-R-BRS-2-TLX
1907 1906-R-BRS-2-TLX N B EITL N/A 1906-R-BRS-2-TLX HY B ATL 1907-HY-BRS-2-TLN
1908 1907-HY-BRS-2-TLN N C ATL 1908-N-BRS-1-TLN 1908-N-BRS-1-TLN R A ATL 1908-R-BRS-2-TLX

 

DJIA Index is incongruent with presidential election cycle historical standards with market rising in the post election year of 1905. Again, the market characteristically found a cyclical bottom in the mid-term election year of 1906. The pre-election year of 1907 was uncharacteristically bearish. The market predicted the recessionary within the perceived six to nine month advanced warning. Note the yellow shaded area on the bottom of the chart that highlights the 1907 recession. As you can see, the Indicant avoided that bear cycle.

 As you can see, bullish seasonality (pink) is incongruent to historical standards during the bearish market periods and bearish seasonality (white) is also incongruent to historical standards during bullish periods. The first Trans-Atlantic wireless transmission did not ignite a bullish response as the market anticipated the recession that began in early 1907. Even the greatest of inventions become irrelevant with uninspiring economic activity during this era.

 

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