DJIA Index is congruent with presidential
election cycle historical standards with market falling in the post
election year of 1920. Again, the market found bottom late in this post election
year. The mid-term election year of 1922 was uncharacteristically bullish. The
pre-election year of 1923 was incongruent with historical standards while the
election year, 1924, performed as expected.
You may need to click on the
1916-1920 chart to get this perspective. The market peaked in late 1919. As you can see,
the market was surprised by the 1920 recession, as it did not deliver
bearish expressions six to nine months ahead of this recession. However,
it made up for
its late recognition of it with a nasty bearish expression in 1920 and
early 1921.
This is the third consecutive post election
year where the market found bottom. That phenomenon is typically reserved
for the mid-term election year. The market's reaction to prohibition
helped promulgate bearish directions that lasted for nearly two years.
This tyranny by the majority democracy and over-zealous political
leadership that tends to tell you how to behave was the beginning
socialistic causes prompting the great depression. This eventually led to
the mafia economy, where laws and regulations open the money
spigot to underworld distributors who always cater to the demands of the
people.
As you can see, bullish seasonality (pink) is
incongruent to historical standards during the bearish market periods and
bearish seasonality (white) is also incongruent to historical standards
during bullish periods.
