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Indicant beats buy and hold......
Return to Start of MTI-RYS Indicant Tour
and Associated Links
Click here to see current updates and status
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Indicant's MTI-RYS model outperforms Buy&Hold
by 1,588.7% from 1900 through 1940. Buy and hold's $10,000
invested in 1900 amounts to $19,434. The 1900 thirty-year old buy and hold
investor is now seventy years old and finally back in the money. No
retirement is possible with these meager earnings. The Indicant's $10,000 1900 investment
increased to $328,179. That was retirement money in 1940. See table below chart. Scroll down for additional links and to
continue tour.
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No. of Bull/Bear Cycles |
Chart Bull Signal No. |
Bull Signal Event Trigger |
Bull Sig Date |
Bull Signal Price |
Chart Bear Signal No. |
Bear Signal Event Trigger |
Bear Sig Date |
Bear Signal Price |
MTI-RYS % Gain or <Loss> |
MTIRYS Account Balance |
Buy and Hold Account Balance |
Indicant Performance Advantage |
MTIRYS Bull Cycle Duration # of Weeks) |
MTIRYS Bear Cycle Duration # of Weeks) |
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0 |
Beginning Investment |
12/29/1899 |
65.73 |
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|
|
|
|
$10,000 |
$10,000 |
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1 |
P<R, ITL |
5/14/1937 |
169.15 |
169.8% |
$297,157 |
$25,734 |
1054.7% |
213.0 |
9.0 |
|
37 |
2 |
P>ITL |
7/16/1937 |
179.53 |
3 |
P<R, ITL |
8/27/1937 |
175.91 |
-2.0% |
$291,165 |
$26,763 |
988.0% |
6.0 |
9.0 |
|
38 |
4 |
P>ITL |
10/29/1937 |
138.48 |
5 |
P<R, ITL |
11/5/1937 |
128.92 |
-6.9% |
$271,065 |
$19,614 |
1282.0% |
1.0 |
10.0 |
|
39 |
6 |
P>Y |
1/14/1938 |
131.84 |
7 |
P<Y, ITL |
1/28/1938 |
120.66 |
-8.5% |
$248,078 |
$18,357 |
1251.4% |
2.0 |
4.0 |
|
40 |
8 |
P<Y |
2/25/1938 |
131.58 |
9 |
P<Y, ITL |
3/4/1938 |
127.78 |
-2.9% |
$240,914 |
$19,440 |
1139.3% |
1.0 |
14.0 |
|
41 |
10 |
P>ITL |
6/10/1938 |
114.47 |
11 |
P<ITL, R |
12/2/1938 |
147.57 |
28.9% |
$310,576 |
$22,451 |
1283.4% |
25.0 |
2.0 |
|
42 |
12 |
P>R |
12/16/1938 |
150.89 |
13 |
P<ITL, R |
1/13/1939 |
146.52 |
-2.9% |
$301,582 |
$22,291 |
1252.9% |
4.0 |
16.0 |
|
43 |
14 |
P>Y |
5/5/1939 |
131.47 |
15 |
P<ITL, R |
11/10/1939 |
149.09 |
13.4% |
$342,000 |
$22,682 |
1407.8% |
27.0 |
43.0 |
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44 |
16 |
P>Y |
9/6/1940 |
133.12 |
17 |
P<Y, ITL |
9/13/1940 |
127.74 |
-4.0% |
$328,179 |
$19,434 |
1588.7% |
1.0 |
2.0 |
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45 |
18 |
P>Y |
9/27/1940 |
131.76 |
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Year |
Incumbent Trip Line
at start of BRS-1 Cycle |
BRS1 config @ conclusion of cycle |
Rule for BRS-1 Cycles |
Action @ conclusion of BRS-1 Cycle |
New Incumbent Trip Line Name |
Incumbent Trip Line
at start of BRS-2 Cycle |
BRS2 config @ conclusion of cycle |
Rules for BRS-2 Cycles |
Action at conclusion of BRS-2 Cycle or
when it becomes Hybrid |
New Incumbent Trip Line Name |
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1936 |
1935-R-BRS-2-TLX |
HR |
B |
EITL |
N/A |
1935-R-BRS-2-TLX |
R |
A |
ATL |
1936-R-BRS-2-TLX |
|
1937 |
1936-R-BRS-2-TLX |
HR |
B |
EITL |
N/A |
1936-R-BRS-2-TLX |
N |
B |
ATL |
1937-N-BRS-2-TLN |
|
1938 |
1937-N-BRS-2-TLN |
Y |
C |
ATL |
1938-Y-BRS-1-TLN |
1938-Y-BRS-1-TLN |
HR |
C,D |
ATL |
1938-HR-BRS-2-TLX |
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1939 |
1938-HR-BRS-2-TLX |
N |
B |
EITL |
N/A |
1938-HR-BRS-2-TLX |
HR |
C,D |
ATL |
1939-HY-BRS-1-TLN |
|
1940 |
1939-HR-BRS-2-TLX |
N |
B |
EITL |
N/A |
1939-HR-BRS-2-TLX |
HY |
B |
ATL |
1940-HY-BRS-2-TLN |
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DJIA Index is congruent with presidential
election cycle historical standards. The post election year of 1937 was
characteristically bearish, while the mid-term election year again found
the market's bottom.
The market was a little slow predicting the
recession. It peaked about three months before the recession began.
The magnitude of the post election year
bearishness reflects a continuum stream of FDR's new deals, where commerce
is now going to be influenced by bureaucrats as opposed to hard-driving,
profit minded capitalists. The Great Depression was caused by politicians
and a whole generation had to live through their slow methods of fixing
the problem they created. That took quite a bit of energy from those
inclined with capitalistic behavioral patterns. You will see later that
the capitalistic-minded eventually recovered.
Keep in mind that one's quality of thinking
will never be as good when using someone else's money. Politicians do not
use their own money. Even good people who get into politics will be
incapable of making quality-like bottom-line decisions.
The pre-election year and election year were
both uncharacteristically bearish due to a combination of continuing
increases in political influences and their philosophically created next
world war. Smoot-Hawley led to world wide unemployment, enhancing
increased political rhetoric and national pride around the world. If one
cannot get a job, then one joins their respective armies. What else is
there to do, but fight and die for that national pride at the expense of
individual happiness?
As you can see, bullish seasonality (pink) is
incongruent to historical standards during the bearish market periods and
bearish seasonality (white) is also incongruent to historical standards
during bullish periods.
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