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Indicant beats buy and hold......
Return to Start of MTI-RYS Indicant Tour
and Associated Links
Click here to see current updates and status
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Indicant's MTI-RYS model outperforms Buy&Hold
by 1,791.5% from 1900 through 1948. Buy and hold's $10,000
invested in 1900 amounts to $26,461. The Indicant's $10,000 1900 investment
increased to $500,511. Scroll down for additional links and to
continue tour.
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No. of Bull/Bear Cycles |
Chart Bull Signal No. |
Bull Signal Event Trigger |
Bull Sig Date |
Bull Signal Price |
Chart Bear Signal No. |
Bear Signal Event Trigger |
Bear Sig Date |
Bear Signal Price |
MTI-RYS % Gain or <Loss> |
MTIRYS Account Balance |
Buy and Hold Account Balance |
Indicant Performance Advantage |
MTIRYS Bull Cycle Duration # of Weeks) |
MTIRYS Bear Cycle Duration # of Weeks) |
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0 |
Beginning Investment |
12/29/1899 |
65.73 |
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$10,000 |
$10,000 |
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1 |
P<ITL, R |
9/6/1946 |
179.96 |
29.7% |
$532,901 |
$27,379 |
1846.4% |
122.0 |
7.0 |
|
51 |
2 |
P>ITL |
10/25/1946 |
168.76 |
3 |
P<ITL, R |
11/22/1946 |
163.55 |
-3.1% |
$516,449 |
$24,882 |
1975.6% |
4.0 |
1.0 |
|
52 |
4 |
P>ITL |
11/29/1946 |
169.78 |
5 |
P<ITL, R |
4/18/1947 |
166.77 |
-1.8% |
$507,293 |
$25,372 |
1899.4% |
20.0 |
1.0 |
|
53 |
6 |
P>ITL |
4/25/1947 |
168.93 |
7 |
P<ITL, R |
5/16/1947 |
164.96 |
-2.4% |
$495,371 |
$25,097 |
1873.9% |
3.0 |
1.0 |
|
54 |
8 |
P>ITL |
5/23/1947 |
166.95 |
9 |
P<ITL, R |
1/23/1948 |
171.97 |
3.0% |
$510,266 |
$26,163 |
1850.3% |
35.0 |
10.0 |
|
55 |
10 |
P>ITL |
4/2/1948 |
177.32 |
11 |
P<ITL, R |
11/12/1948 |
173.93 |
-1.9% |
$500,511 |
$26,461 |
1791.5% |
32.0 |
8.0 |
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Year |
Incumbent Trip Line
at start of BRS-1 Cycle |
BRS1 config @ conclusion of cycle |
Rule for BRS-1 Cycles |
Action @ conclusion of BRS-1 Cycle |
New Incumbent Trip Line Name |
Incumbent Trip Line
at start of BRS-2 Cycle |
BRS2 config @ conclusion of cycle |
Rules for BRS-2 Cycles |
Action at conclusion of BRS-2 Cycle or
when it becomes Hybrid |
New Incumbent Trip Line Name |
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1944 |
1943-R-BRS-1-TLX |
HR |
C |
ATL |
1944-HR-BRS-1-TLN |
1944-HR-BRS-1-TLN |
R |
A |
ATL |
1944-R-BRS-1-TLX |
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1945 |
1944-R-BRS-1-TLX |
R |
A |
EITL |
N/A |
1944-R-BRS-1-TLX |
R |
A |
ATL |
1945-R-BRS-1-TLX |
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1946 |
1945-R-BRS-1-TLX |
R |
A |
EITL |
N/A |
1945-R-BRS-1-TLX |
N |
B |
ATL |
1946-R-BRS-2-TLN |
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1947 |
1946-R-BRS-2-TLN |
N |
C |
ATL |
1947-N-BRS-1-TLN |
1947-N-BRS-1-TLN |
N |
B |
ATL |
1947-N-BRS-2-TLN |
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1948 |
1947-N-BRS-2-TLN |
HR |
C |
ATL |
1948-HR-BRS-1-TLN |
1948-HR-BRS-1-TLN |
N |
B |
ATL |
1948-N-BRS-2-TLN |
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DJIA Index is incongruent with presidential
election cycle historical standards. The post election year of 1945 was
uncharacteristically bullish. However, the mid-term election year found a
market bottom, as expected, but was closely followed with a near same bottom in the
pre-election year of 1947. World War II was ending and the market was hesitant to
assess what the returning troops were going to do in the way of jobs.
You
will later see how the troops took to heart what they fought and died for
- individual freedom. The populace exuded that through unprecedented
economic growth and prosperity in the years following WWII. Capitalism was again at the forefront.
D-Day and Hiroshima stimulated a bullish reaction.
Capitalists and individual freedom is going to reign again for the first
time since 1929. The cold war and rising communism held the market in
check in the late 1940's.
As you can see, bullish seasonality (pink) is
incongruent to historical standards during the bearish market periods and
bearish seasonality (white) is also incongruent to historical standards
during bullish periods.
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