The presidential post election year of 1953 was
bearish and consistent with historical standards. The mid-term election year
of 1954 was uncharacteristically bullish. The mid-term year was uncharacteristically bullish while
the pre-election year was congruently bullish to historical standards. The
election year of 1956 was flat. You will notice this is a burgeoning
phenomenon.
Interestingly, a buy and hold Investor at the
peak of 1929 had to wait thirty-five plus years to breakeven. The market
momentarily expressed some concern about Eisenhower's heart attack, which
he survived.
The early 1950's was a happy time for most.
Social medicine had not yet been invented. As you can see, the stock
market liked the idea of mass produced computers. The idea was to free up
people's minds from clerical and mundane tasks. This would provide more
creativity and higher levels of productivity. The stock market loves that
sort of thing in the long run, although not understood in the short-run.
It disdains political disruptions such as Smoot-Hawley or any other type
of government interference from free trade.
As you can see, the market showed little
respect for the 1953 recession, but anticipated it nicely - about six
months before it started.
As you can see, bullish seasonality (pink) is
incongruent to historical standards during the bearish market periods and
bearish seasonality (white) is also incongruent to historical standards
during bullish periods.
