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Indicant beats buy and hold......
Return to Start of MTI-RYS Indicant Tour
and Associated Links
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Indicant's MTI-RYS model outperforms Buy&Hold
by 1878.2% from 1900 through 1968. Buy and hold's $10,000
invested in 1900 amounts to $132,306. The Indicant's $10,000 1900
investment increased to $2,617,315. Scroll down for additional links and to
continue tour.
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No. of Bull/Bear Cycles |
Chart Bull Signal No. |
Bull Signal Event Trigger |
Bull Sig Date |
Bull Signal Price |
Chart Bear Signal No. |
Bear Signal Event Trigger |
Bear Sig Date |
Bear Signal Price |
MTI-RYS % Gain or <Loss> |
MTIRYS Account Balance |
Buy and Hold Account Balance |
Indicant Performance Advantage |
MTIRYS Bull Cycle Duration # of Weeks) |
MTIRYS Bear Cycle Duration # of Weeks) |
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0 |
Beginning Investment |
12/29/1899 |
65.73 |
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$10,000 |
$10,000 |
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1 |
P<ITL, R |
6/25/1965 |
854.36 |
13.8% |
$2,655,878 |
$129,980 |
1943.3% |
82.0 |
2.0 |
|
70 |
2 |
P>ITL |
7/9/1965 |
879.49 |
3 |
P<ITL, R |
7/23/1965 |
863.97 |
-1.8% |
$2,609,011 |
$131,442 |
1884.9% |
2.0 |
1.0 |
|
71 |
4 |
P>ITL |
7/30/1965 |
881.74 |
5 |
P<ITL, R |
3/11/1966 |
927.95 |
5.2% |
$2,745,743 |
$141,176 |
1844.9% |
32.0 |
5.0 |
|
72 |
6 |
P>ITL |
4/15/1966 |
947.77 |
7 |
P<ITL, R |
4/29/1966 |
933.68 |
-1.5% |
$2,704,924 |
$142,048 |
1804.2% |
2.0 |
27.0 |
|
73 |
8 |
P>ITL |
11/4/1966 |
805.06 |
9 |
P<ITL, R |
6/2/1967 |
863.31 |
7.2% |
$2,900,638 |
$131,342 |
2108.5% |
30.0 |
1.0 |
|
74 |
10 |
P>ITL |
6/9/1967 |
874.89 |
11 |
P<ITL, R |
6/30/1967 |
860.26 |
-1.7% |
$2,852,134 |
$130,878 |
2079.2% |
3.0 |
2.0 |
|
75 |
12 |
P>ITL |
7/14/1967 |
882.05 |
13 |
P<ITL, R |
11/3/1967 |
856.62 |
-2.9% |
$2,769,905 |
$130,324 |
2025.4% |
16.0 |
4.0 |
|
76 |
14 |
P>ITL |
12/1/1967 |
879.16 |
15 |
P<ITL, R |
1/26/1968 |
865.06 |
-1.6% |
$2,725,481 |
$131,608 |
1970.9% |
8.0 |
11.0 |
|
77 |
16 |
P>ITL |
4/12/1968 |
905.59 |
17 |
P<ITL, R |
8/9/1968 |
869.65 |
-4.0% |
$2,617,315 |
$132,306 |
1878.2% |
17.0 |
1.0 |
|
78 |
18 |
P>ITL |
8/16/1968 |
885.89 |
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Year |
Incumbent Trip Line
at start of BRS-1 Cycle |
BRS1 config @ conclusion of cycle |
Rule for BRS-1 Cycles |
Action @ conclusion of BRS-1 Cycle |
New Incumbent Trip Line Name |
Incumbent Trip Line
at start of BRS-2 Cycle |
BRS2 config @ conclusion of cycle |
Rules for BRS-2 Cycles |
Action at conclusion of BRS-2 Cycle or
when it becomes Hybrid |
New Incumbent Trip Line Name |
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1964 |
1963-R-BRS-2-TLX |
R |
A |
EITL |
N/A |
1963-R-BRS-2-TLX |
R |
A |
ATL |
1964-R-BRS-2-TLX |
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1965 |
1964-R-BRS-2-TLX |
R |
A |
EITL |
N/A |
1964-R-BRS-2-TLX |
R |
A |
ATL |
1965-R-BRS-2-TLX |
|
1966 |
1965-R-BRS-2-TLX |
N |
B |
EITL |
N/A |
1965-R-BRS-2-TLX |
N |
B |
ATL |
1966-N-BRS-2-TLN |
|
1967 |
1966-N-BRS-2-TLN |
HR |
C |
ATL |
1967-HR-BRS-1-TLN |
1967-HR-BRS-1-TLN |
HR |
C |
ARTL |
1967-HR-BRS-1-TLN |
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1968 |
1967-HR-BRS-1-TLN |
HR |
B |
EITL |
N/A |
1967-HR-BRS-1-TLN |
HR |
C |
ARTL |
1968-HR-BRS-1-TLN |
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The DJIA Index moved incongruently to
historical standards in the post election year of 1965, which again
uncharacteristically demonstrated bullish expressions. Just as in the
prior presidential election cycle, the balance of the years in this
presidential election cycle were congruent with historical standards. The
mid-term election year found a market bottom with bullish expressions in
the pre-election and election years.
The secular bull market of sixteen years
perished on "hear they come again" political rhetoric. LBJ's Great Society
program was now in the making. Academic credentialism and socialistic
causes created the great bear market of 1966. The stock market is asking,
"where is the production?" Who is going support all these planned
non-producers of goods and services. The market is asking will these
beneficiaries of the Great Society be allowed to breed yet more
non-producers of goods and services. Remember, politicians only talk to
the weak.
The market seemed to enjoy the creation of
VCR's; not because of brain killing TV watching, but because many people
would want them and that is production. The market likes positive economic
activity. You will later see, it took several more years before the market
returned to its 1966 peak.
As you can see, the market showed little
response to the assassinations of Dr. Martin Luther King and Robert F.
Kennedy.
As you can see, bullish seasonality (pink) is
incongruent to historical standards during the bearish market periods and
bearish seasonality (white) is also incongruent to historical standards
during bullish periods.
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