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Indicant beats buy and hold......
Return to Start of MTI-RYS Indicant Tour
and Associated Links
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Indicant's MTI-RYS model outperforms Buy&Hold
by 2113.0% from 1900 through 1976. Buy and hold's $10,000
invested in 1900 amounts to $142,553. The Indicant's $10,000 1900
investment increased to $3,154,636. Scroll down for additional links and to
continue tour.
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No. of Bull/Bear Cycles |
Chart Bull Signal No. |
Bull Signal Event Trigger |
Bull Sig Date |
Bull Signal Price |
Chart Bear Signal No. |
Bear Signal Event Trigger |
Bear Sig Date |
Bear Signal Price |
MTI-RYS % Gain or <Loss> |
MTIRYS Account Balance |
Buy and Hold Account Balance |
Indicant Performance Advantage |
MTIRYS Bull Cycle Duration # of Weeks) |
MTIRYS Bear Cycle Duration # of Weeks) |
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0 |
Beginning Investment |
12/29/1899 |
65.73 |
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$10,000 |
$10,000 |
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1 |
P<ITL, R |
2/23/1973 |
959.89 |
-2.5% |
$2,740,837 |
$146,035 |
1776.8% |
16.0 |
8.0 |
|
85 |
2 |
P>ITL |
4/20/1973 |
963.20 |
3 |
P<ITL, R |
4/27/1973 |
922.19 |
-4.3% |
$2,624,141 |
$140,300 |
1770.4% |
1.0 |
23.0 |
|
86 |
4 |
P>R |
10/5/1973 |
971.25 |
5 |
P<ITL, R |
11/2/1973 |
935.28 |
-3.7% |
$2,526,957 |
$142,291 |
1675.9% |
4.0 |
51.0 |
|
87 |
6 |
P>ITL |
10/25/1974 |
636.19 |
7 |
P<Y, ITL |
12/6/1974 |
577.60 |
-9.2% |
$2,294,236 |
$87,875 |
2510.8% |
6.0 |
3.0 |
|
88 |
8 |
P>ITL |
12/27/1974 |
602.16 |
9 |
P<Y |
4/4/1975 |
747.26 |
24.1% |
$2,847,069 |
$113,686 |
2404.3% |
14.0 |
1.0 |
|
89 |
10 |
P>Y |
4/11/1975 |
789.50 |
11 |
P<ITL, R |
9/12/1975 |
809.23 |
2.5% |
$2,918,218 |
$123,114 |
2270.3% |
22.0 |
6.0 |
|
90 |
12 |
P>R |
10/24/1975 |
840.52 |
13 |
P<ITL, R |
12/5/1975 |
818.80 |
-2.6% |
$2,842,808 |
$124,570 |
2182.1% |
6.0 |
2.0 |
|
91 |
14 |
P>R |
12/19/1975 |
844.38 |
15 |
P<ITL, R |
10/15/1976 |
937.00 |
11.0% |
$3,154,636 |
$142,553 |
2113.0% |
43.0 |
10.0 |
|
92 |
16 |
P>R |
12/24/1976 |
985.62 |
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Year |
Incumbent Trip Line
at start of BRS-1 Cycle |
BRS1 config @ conclusion of cycle |
Rule for BRS-1 Cycles |
Action @ conclusion of BRS-1 Cycle |
New Incumbent Trip Line Name |
Incumbent Trip Line
at start of BRS-2 Cycle |
BRS2 config @ conclusion of cycle |
Rules for BRS-2 Cycles |
Action at conclusion of BRS-2 Cycle or
when it becomes Hybrid |
New Incumbent Trip Line Name |
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1972 |
1971-HR-BRS-2-TLX |
R |
A |
EITL |
N/A |
1971-HR-BRS-2-TLX |
HR |
C |
ARTL |
1972-R-BRS-1-TLX |
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1973 |
1972-R-BRS-1-TLX |
N |
B |
EITL |
N/A |
1972-R-BRS-1-TLX |
HR |
C |
ARTL |
1973-R-BRS-1-TLN |
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1974 |
1973-R-BRS-1-TLN |
N |
B |
EITL |
N/A |
1973-R-BRS-1-TLN |
Y |
B |
ATL |
1974-Y-BRS-2-TLN |
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1975 |
1974-Y-BRS-2-TLN |
R |
A |
EITL |
N/A |
1974-Y-BRS-2-TLN |
HR |
C |
ARTL |
1975-R-BRS-1-TLX |
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1976 |
1975-HR-BRS-2-TLX |
R |
A |
EITL |
N/A |
1975-R-BRS-1-TLX |
HR |
C |
ARTL |
1976-R-BRS-1-TLX |
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The DJIA Index moved congruently to
historical standards in the post election year of 1973, which characteristically
demonstrated bearish expressions. Just as in the prior presidential
election cycle, the balance of the years in this presidential election
cycle were congruent with historical standards. The mid-term election year
found a market bottom with bullish expressions in the pre-election and
election years.
The market anticipated the 1974 recession by
over a year.
This recession was rather easy for the market to spot with OPEC embargos
and rising oil prices.
Again, non-producers were influencing their false power on the
international economy. OPEC, a collection of non-producers, who lucked out
by being born on huge oil reserves imposed an embargo in 1973. This
dishonest, non-value added behavior, like all those before, created a
recession and a bear market.
The market again anticipated the 1974
recession a little early. Nixon's resignation was not influential. Rising oil prices was
entirely influential. The market showed tremendous bullish respect for tax
shelters. Congress passed legislation helping the parasitical elite to
avoid hefty taxes. Most members of congress are professional people, who
benefit tremendously from these shelters, while the common blue collar
worker enjoys few of these benefits. On the other hand, hard working
capitalists, who can afford accountants and attorneys would also benefit.
So, its passage was not entirely a bad thing, although immoral to the
masses.
As you can see, bullish seasonality (pink) is
incongruent to historical standards during the bearish market periods and
bearish seasonality (white) is also incongruent to historical standards
during bullish periods.
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