Indicant.Net - Indicant Keeps You Out of Bear Markets

Short-term Indicant Rules

When the yellow line falls below the red line, it is a bear market. When the yellow line crosses above the red line, it is a bull market. It is that simple.

Click here to see Short-term Indicant in 1929.

Click here to see Short-term Indicant in 1974

Click here to see Short-term Indicant in 1987

Click here to see Short-term Indicant from January 1995 through April 25, 2003

Click here to see the current Short-term Indicant Status

If you prefer to view tables, click on one of the following:

Table of NASDAQ Short-term Signals Since 1995

Table of Dow Jones Short-term Signals Since 1995

The Short-term Indicant tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite. The Short-term Indicant Points and Standards are computed by totaling the number of prices above the forecast line (see Blue line marked F on charts) for the following indexes. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Composites of 65 Stocks, NASDAQ, NASDAQ100, S&P500, and S&P100. Short-term Indicant signals are only for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composites.

The primary differences between the Short-term, Mid-term, and Long-term Indicants is that they are updated daily, weekly, and monthly, respectively. The Indicant considers other variables, such as volume and other technical data with its Quick-term Indicant. The Short-term Indicant is valuable to all investors so they will not be surprised by the short-term movements of the markets.

The Quick-term Indicant is a newer model. It is also updated daily. Its data is eight dimensional. We have back tested for fifteen years. The data processing for this model is very intensive and it will take a few more years to complete our standards of back testing for eighty years or more. This model is being developed more for options trading, but has been very helpful in identifying market shifts. For example, there should be an extremely high confidence level when the Quick-term Indicant and Short-term Indicant are signaling the same thing.

When all models, including the Mid-term Indicant are signaling the same thing, there is little doubt about the market's direction. When the Quick-term Indicant and Short-term Indicant are sending different signals, then you should read the Email and always wait for specific buy-sell-hold-avoid signals. When all models are bearish, sell and avoid signals are high. When all models are bullish, buy-hold signals are dominant. When the Quick-term and Short-term Indicants signal bear or bull during the week, wait until the weekend's Mid-term Indicant before taking action unless otherwise specified in the daily email reports.

The Short-term Indicant is updated every day. Although it outperforms buy and hold, it is used as a measure of confidence. The longest Short-term Bear Market in history was the NASDAQ's STI Bear from March 30, 2000 to April 22, 2003. That Bear Market exceeded that of the Dow's STI Bear market from 1929 through a portion of 1932. If the Short-term Indicant signals bull or bear, you will be notified via e-mail with a hyperlink to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ charts. Again, unless otherwise noted in the daily email, wait for the weekend's Mid-term Indicant update before taking any action. The Short-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant are early warning signs about shifts in market direction.

The reason the Short-term Indicant was developed is to help you enter or exit the market based on your personal needs. For example, a Long-term Investor who has been in the market for the past thirty years may want to pay attention to the Short-term Indicant if he or she is contemplating retirement or needs that new bass boat. If their original plans were to sell within the next six months and the Short-term Indicant were to signal bear, then that particular investor should consider selling, as opposed to waiting out the six months. The Quick-term Indicant was developed for the higher risk taker to get an early jump on a bull or bear cycle. If the Short-term Indicant shifts from a bull to bear signal, the Quick-term Indicant will help you refine your exit point.

How does the Short-term Indicant compare to "buy and hold" and other trading models? The Short-term Indicant outperformed buy and hold by 16% from 1928 through 1998. More importantly, it identified the great bear markets of the 1930's. The Short-term Indicant out performed buy and hold by 151.4% from 1928 through 2001.From 1995 through 2002, the Short-term Indicant outperformed buy and hold by 379% and 210% for the NASDAQ and Dow Jones Industrial Average, respectively. This performance level vacillates depending on the magnitude of dynamic bull and bear cycles. For example, the Short-term Indicant's Bear signal on March 30, 2000 helped you avoid most of the 2,772.3 drop in the NASDAQ. That helped you avoid the ensuing 62.2% drop. The Short-term Indicant enjoyed a performance advantage over buy and hold because it signaled bear throughout the 2,772.3 point drop. If the market stays flat and somewhat bouncy around that flatness, the Short-term Indicant's performance advantage will shrivel.

Unlike many advisories the Indicant maintains performance related data on a continuing basis. Click here to see the updated historical performance table. If this had been written in 1949, the Short-term Indicant would have yielded you ten times the growth rate of the buy and hold type of investors. The market was no higher in 1949 than it was in 1928. We could be entering a similar period of time in 2001, as the NASDAQ got too far ahead of itself in the late 1990's with voodoo bookkeeping and dilettante management.

Click here to see the current performance table. It is updated every weekend.

What is interesting, though, is that no matter what the market is doing, there is always a way to make money. Sector investing has provided us this opportunity. Mid-term sector investing has outperformed "buy and hold" during the last bull and bear cycles. As more and more mutual funds become available to you, the greater the chances for the staff at Indicant.Net to find high growth sector funds (and stocks) for you to invest in regardless of the market's direction. Click here to see more about sector investing.

Please click on any of the following to see how the Short-term Indicant would have protected members against the stock market crashes of 1929, 1974, 1987, and 2001 and how tremendous profits could have been made in the 1999-2001 market.