Return Home | Table of Contents | FAQ's |  Become a Member | ETF's |  Current Report Card | Member Updates | Login

Media Kit | Free Stock Market History | Indicant Performance Advantage | Back Issues | Contact Us | Links

 

Indicant.Net Ezine

This is updated weekly at varying times.

Back Issues 

 

Note to public. You are welcome to read this ezine and other content in this web site. You can click on the "back issues" link at the top of this page to gain significant insights about the stock market and the economy. Throughout this ezine and back issues there are several links to pages inside this web site. Only members can access certain pages from these links. The phenomena of commonality dictates this policy. In other words, the buy/hold and sell/avoid positions are limited to a few people. The Indicant is not mass marketed.. You can become a member, but after membership goals are achieved, no new members will be allowed. The investment crowd is always wrong and we have no desire to create a crowd.

The below is last week's report. This week's report can be found by clicking the following link. You must be a members to view this week's report.

Click here to read this week's report.

Click here to read the current daily reports.

Click here to access prior daily and weekly reports. Non-members are welcome.

 

 

 

Dec 2, 2018 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 12, Issue 01 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

The Dovish Fed versus the Communistic House of Representatives

The Federal Reserve is orating dovish sentiment, which stimulated the stock market bull into a fundamental stampede last week. Oil prices are in a declining cycle. That facilitates the Fed’s passiveness on interest rates. Fed members will pontificate all sorts of reasons for this, but the Oct 29, 2017 Weekly Stock Market Report explains the real one-dimensional simple reason for that passiveness.

 

Trump could take credit for these dynamics. Several months ago, he started jawboning Saudi Royalty to hold down oil prices. A few months after that, he started jawboning the Federal Reserve to stop increasing interest rates.

 

All of that is good for the stock market bull and it responded last week with profound enthusiasm. There are a couple of problems, however. As stated in last week’s stock market report, the communist party will be controlling the House of Representatives in a few weeks. The last time that happened was in January 2007. The stock market bull remained ignorant to their threat, as the communist still referred to themselves as democrats in the 2006 mid-term elections. They are purely communists. Pure communists only desire power and do not care one about you. They know that a majority of voters know that and one reason for the democratic (communist) party’s incessant desire to continue dumbing down voters and encouraging the uneducated to infiltrate the U.S. from foreign lands and do the same to them. As the world’s population continues to increase, resources per capita decreases. Communist leaders want to have exclusive rights to those dwindling resources and have you harvest those resources for their consumption. The “all people are created equally” paradigm is a prime enemy to the democratic party. They disdain having to wait in line at a five-star hotel, where a former construction worker who is now a billionaire is ahead of them. They want the five-stars to themselves. You are not welcome.

 

The stock market bull is now wiser. However, this time it is trickier. The communist took over the House and Senate in January 2007. By the summer of 2007, it was obvious the president was going to be one that leans more toward communism, regardless of it being Barack Obama or John McCain. Both of those economic illiterates, coupled with a full-throated communist congress, was not good for the stock market bull. With that, it expired, and the stock market bear took over in late 2007. Remember, George W. Bush was still president, who was left-leaning and he was to be followed by either McCain or Obama. The stock market bull knew that with a communistic congress and a left leaning president was not good. Bush led the bailout of several industries that should have simply gone bankrupt. Those left leaning folks do not care if you go bankrupt and rest assured, they will not bail you out.

 

Most Americans recognized their ignorance in the 2006 mid-term elections and the 2008-presidential election, giving rise to the Tea Party revolt. The soul of the stock market bull enjoyed the Tea Party revolt, spawning renewed bullish energy by 2009. Fed Chief Ben Bernanke deserves some credit for the birth of the 2009 stock market bull. His quantitative easing programs during that era disallowed any other investment being more attractive that stocks.

 

The jury is still out on Bernanke’s contribution to the birth of the 2009-stock market bull. Bernanke’s quantitative easing may contribute to future inflation but falling oil prices.

 

Barack Obama wants to take credit for the burgeoning economy, but he does not even understand what is going on. Obama continued blaming George W. Bush for the economy throughout his presidency and now wants to take credit from Trump’s economic expansion. Obama during his tenure stated high unemployment was the new norm, highlighting his economic ignorance. Pelosi, who will be the House Speaker, once said, payments to the unemployed are good for the economy. Idiots are in charge because other idiots vote for them.

 

Trump’s jawboning does indeed have an effect, but with a communistic House of Representatives the dynamics will be different. Obama does not shut-up and that will worsen what is already a bad situation when considering political fundamentals that confront the stock market bull. Obama and Pelosi’s economic stupidity is orated to millions of other economic illiterates and they vote and if they do not get enough, communists will cheat. They do whatever it takes to rule over you. The stock market bull does not like it when a huge number of ignorant voters listen to and believe a leader who conveys fiction. Capitalism is completely against any form of fiction.

 

Although last week’s bullish stock market behavior has strong fundamental merit with the Federal Reserve backing off increasing rates, the communistic House of Representatives will act as a counter balance. The stock market is now more aware of the communistic threat.

 

There is little difference between communism and fascism. Both facilitate a very few people living like kings while masses scrap around in poverty, living a life of misery, as opposed to the pursuit of happiness. The first to perish in a fascist state are the smaller caps. Those companies cannot afford lobbyists in the same volume as the larger caps. Clicking this sentence will reveal how the largest of large caps have not endured bear signals. A large faction of Wall Street influencers likes fascism. That has allowed the larger of large caps to avoid the stock market bear attacks the past few months, but even they are a bit shaky because of the Wall Street elite can only do so much since they are minority. It was them selling off on the evening of Trump’s election while the rest of you overran the Wall Street elite a few days later following his election.

 

The Mid-term Indicant did not signal renewed bulls last week, despite several indices qualifying. Here’s why. The mid-caps and small-caps remain with bearish attributes. The S&P400-Midcap Index-(Chart) and the S&P600-(Chart) did not cross above their respective short-cycle blue curves last week. Both of their force vectors are tiring with vector pressure deep inside bearish domains. Finally, both of those indices have a tendency to lead bear markets. Until they garnish a bit more bullishness the stock market bear should be recognized as remaining as the dominant force.

 

A dovish Fed is indeed bullish for the stock market. Their dovishness is supported by falling oil prices. With that, do not be surprised at bullish gusto. The antithesis of that is a communistic House of Representatives, which has less influence than that of 2007 since the 2019 Senate will retain power. However, the press will give the communists more attention. Therefore, at this time do not be surprised at continuing volatility as the communist desire the impeachment of a president who has lifted the economy. The communists do not care about your increasing quality of life and the economy. The stock market now understands that and that could lead to more bearishness. The configurations are awaiting Trump’s tactics and strategies and if effective, all this bearish tone will shift to a bullish one once the configurations obviate a return of the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 8-Red Bulls, 2-Non-Red Bulls

            Comment: This improved considerably from last week when there were no Red Bulls. The major indices, on average overall, are above Red by 1.9%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls- Click for Explanation2): 5-Blue Bulls, 5-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: This also improved from last week when there were no Blue Bulls. Overall, the ten major indices are above Blue by an average of 0.3%. That is unimpressive relative to a dovish Fed.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: Fortunately, none of the major indices are Yellow Bears. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 23.8% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance and the economy is not being threatened. The gap between prevailing prices and the Yellow Bear is too wide to be considered where the next bear signals occur. Bear signals occur at falling below Green with bearish force and pressure.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 1-Green Bears, 9-Non-Green Bears

                Comment: This improved also considerably last week. The lone green bear is the S&P600-(Chart), which remains a threat to the stock market bull with its propensity to lead stock market bears. Overall, the major indices are above the green bear curve by an average of 3.1%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 8-Reds Higher than Green; 2-Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: This attribute has been identifying an overheated bull market for several months and in the process of resetting with the new bear signals. The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) have not enjoyed Green crossing above Red in the current bull cycle. Overall, is Red is above Green by an average of 1.2%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 2-bullish domains, 8-bearish domains

                Comment: Two force vectors in bullish domains offers a bit encouragement to the stock market bear with an improvement by one from last week. However, this bullish attribute remains in a minority much to the delight of the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 10-above pressure, 0-below pressure

                Comment: This certainly enhanced the potential for bullish enthusiasm, but the force vectors are bullishly mature. Some of showing fatigue.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 1-bullish domains, 9-bearish domains

                Comment: Only the DJU remains in bullish domains of the major indices. The stock market bull cannot guarantee its sustainability until vector pressure returns to bullish domains. This remains as a dominant attribute.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 10-bullish, 0-bearish

                Comment: All force vectors are again bullishly directed, but again they are very mature at this point.

           

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 8-bullish, 2-bearish

            Comment: This attribute continues increasing its support of the stock market bull, but needs to get into bullish domains before being fully meaningful to the stock market bull.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Force vectors and vector pressure are the predominant attributes to monitor. Force shifted back into a bullish direction last week, but most remain below pressure. New bull signals require force above pressure and index values Blue.

 

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.

 

Mercadolibre, NAS#97-MELI-(Chart), was up 13.6% as the most bullish NASDAQ100 stock last week. It is also up 37.7% since the Indicant’s Jul 2017 buy signal. Although this stock is not a Red Bull, its long-term trend is profoundly bullish but mired in a pause cycle for the past several months. Hasbro, NAS#58-HAS-(Chart), was down 5.2% last week as the most bearish NASDAQ100. It is also down 5.3% since the Indicant’s Jul 6, 2018 sell signal. This stock is a bit troubled falling to green bear status, but its force vector is rising and thus continued holding is okay, but with a cautionary stop loss.

 

aTyr Pharmacies, ISTK#90-LIFE-(Chart), was up 18.5% as the most bullish stock in this group last week. However, it is down 97.2% since the Indicant’s Jul 2015 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. Nabors, ISTK#67-NBR-(Chart), was down 16.5% last week as the most bearish in this group of stocks. It is also down 62.0% since the Indicant’s May 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

 

Boeing, DJIA#08-BA-(Chart), was up 11.0% last week, as the most bullish Dow30 stock. It is also up 13.4% since the Indicant’s Aug 24, 2018 buy signal. Continue holding this solid Red Bull. United Technologies, DJIA#20-UTX-(Chart), was down 5.6% as last week’s most bearish Dow30 stock. However, it is up 21.9% since the Indicant’s Apr 2016 buy signal. This stock is no longer a Red Bull, but with a solid long-term bullish trend. Its force vector is also rising, supporting that trend.

 

PG&E, DJU#07-PCG-(Chart), was up 10.7% as last week’s most bullish Dow Utility stock. However, it is down 50.7% since the Indicant’s Dec 2017 sell signal. It is refreshing this stock rebounded last week, but continue avoiding, as it is a very sick Yellow Bear. There were no bearish Dow Utility stocks last week. First Energy, DJU#15-FE-(Chart), was up 0.9% as the least bullish Dow Utility stock. It is also up 2.9% since the Indicant’s Jul 6, 2018 buy signal. Continue holding this Red Bull as it continues to valiantly escape the wrath of the 2008 stock market bear.

 

Fidelity Growth, MF#63-FDGRX-(Chart), was up 6.9% as the most bullish mutual fund tracked by the Indicant last week. This fund is also up 216.6% since the Indicant’s Jul 2009 buy signal. This fund would have endured a sell signal when its vector pressure dipped into bearish domains a few weeks ago, but its sell is set for it becoming a Yellow Bear due to its strong bullish cycle. Last week’s bullish bounce supports that position. Pro Funds Ultra Short of NASDAQ100, MF#22-USPIX-(Chart), was down 12.2% last week as the most bearish and down 98.8% since the Indicant’s Apr 2009 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear, but it will be a good buy on Trump’s impeachment when and if that occurs. Make certain you protect/hide your assets as a communistic takeover may confiscate your capital gains.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that prior to the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. 

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 226 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 209.0% that annualizes to 44.3%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 226-stocks and funds for an average of 259.2-weeks. There have been 73-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 95-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 20.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 68.9-weeks ago. There have been 117-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on Dec 1, 2017 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 269-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 233.7-weeks. They were up by an average of 192.3% (annualized at 43.2%). There were 51-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 20.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 115.0-weeks earlier, one year ago. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 80-buy signals and 61-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2017.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 248-stocks on Nov 25, 2016. They were up 146.7% since their buy signals an average of 193.8-weeks earlier, annualizing at 39.4% There were 51-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 193.8-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and two sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There had been 142-buy signals and 110-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. Polls favored Hillary Clinton throughout most of that year’s election cycle. That confronted the stock market bull and encouraged the stock market bear. Presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, once said she would take corporate profits and do something better with the money. That sort of talk from an economic illiterate in a very significant political position aroused the stock market bear. The stock market bear is especially aroused when such comments stimulate applause from voting lunatics.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 255-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Dec 4, 2015. They were up by an average of 167.3%, annualizing at 39.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 221.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 81-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 22.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 76.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There were 64-year-to-date buy signals and 108-sell signals at this time of year in 2015. This presidential pre-election year was somewhat uneventful and tame, following unusually strong post-election year bullishness in 2013 and a flat 2014-mid-term presidential election year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 306-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Nov 28, 2014. They were up by an average of 141.6%, annualizing at 40.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 182.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 26-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 23.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 182.6-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and five sell signals on this weekend in 2014. There had been a total of 35-buy signals and 46-sell signals through this weekend in 2014. The market was mostly flat that year following the very strong 2013-bull leg that was inspired, in part, by sequestration.

 

There were 318-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Nov 29, 2013 since their buy signals an average of 138.2-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 101.3% (annualized at 38.1%). There were 20-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 28.7% from their respective sell signals an average of 74.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2013. There had been 105-buy signals and 55-sell signals through this weekend in 2013. This was an impressively bullish year, as sequestration inspired the stock market bull along an accelerated growth plane. Although sequestered spending was minimal, the underlying principles of handcuffing the irrationality of politicians inspired the stock market bull.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying and selling have been limited for the past few years, as the bull’s perseverance has prevented a solid bear market for nearly just over years. That has been reducing the number of stocks in temporary decline to earn new buy signals since they have been enjoying hold signals for several years. An increase in opportunities may emerge depending on the political spectrum. The Trump agenda will be slowed in the 2018-mid-term elections with Pelosi as House Speaker. As stated for several weeks, “that will inspire the stock market bear.” As of Nov 23, the Dow was down over 1700 points since the mid-term election. However, continuing with a republican senate, will prevent Trump’s impeachment. Despite that prevention, the stock market bear will be delighted at Pelosi in charge of the House of Representatives. The good news is that Trump will be smart enough to point out that since Pelosi has been in charge, things have worsened which should lead to a clean republican sweep in the 2020-election. That should completely demolish the democratic party. With that, a year and a half of stock market bearishness should elevate buying opportunities around mid-2019, depending on the depth of the baby bear now underway, but certainly challenged last week by the stock market bear.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 250.0% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 558.0% and the S&P500 is up 255.3% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 464.0% since October 9, 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was bearish by 21.9% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.

 

The NASDAQ was down 23.9% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was up 49.0% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 6.7% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was `congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

 

It was up 4.2% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.

           

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 10.3% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.  

 

The NASDAQ was up 10.2% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. This week was extraordinarily bearish in that year, as the stock market bear had already been dominating since July of that year. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.

 

The NASDAQ was down by 47.3% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.

                       

It was up 36.0% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

 

The NASDAQ was up 12.4% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.

 

It was down 1.0% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.

           

The NASDAQ was up 15.5% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  

 

It was up 34.5% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  

           

The NASDAQ was up 14.7% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.

.                                                                                                                                                                      

The NASDAQ was up 8.9% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.

           

The NASDAQ was up 4.9% on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the obvious president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.

 

The NASDAQ was up 27.7% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up b            y 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.3% this year. The S&P500 is up 3.2% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 6.2% this year. The S&P600 is up 2.9% this year.  The Dow Transports is up 2.0% and Dow Utilities is up 2.6% this year. The S&P400 is down 1.2% this year.

 

The Dow is up 80.3% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 156.4% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is up 67.9% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.

 

All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 34.2%.

 

The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 45.2%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is above that peak by 47.7%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 47.1%. Those paltry gains have not kept up with inflation. With that consideration they are still down since their 2000-peaks.

 

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

 

The Dow is up 290.1% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 477.8% and the S&P500 is up 308.0% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 429.7% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive, but recent rate hikes offer some arguments against being passive.           

 

The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition.

 

Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated several times in this report, Trump-Economics will be inflationary. Last week dampened inflationary enthusiasm with a mild decline in commodity prices.  

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased another 25-basis points on week-ending Sep 30, 2018. That follows similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, and Jun 15, 2018. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections. The Fed is bending to political pressure, triggering early week stock market bullishness with their dovish talk. Despite that, the annual inflation rate is being reported with only 2.5% to date this year. Oil prices are down 10.7% from this time a year ago, which has a very high correlation to inflation. There is more about oil later. Trump’s jawboning the Saudis a few months ago seems to have an effect.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull at 2.31%. It’s gallop to the north remains bit slower than the policy hikes. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. If the Fed slows future rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be unfriendly to the stock market bull. The opposite of all that occurred this past week.

 

Fortunately, oil prices are in decline. That should dampen Fed enthusiasm to continue increasing interest rates, but production cuts are designed to stabilize oil prices followed by increases.

 

The Euro fell into Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jun 15, 2018. It is no longer resisting deepening its Yellow Bear status. The prevailing bearish trend started the enjoyment of shifting bullishly for the first time in nine years in early March 2018 like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of its long-term bearish trend. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.62.  

 

The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned to the neutral zone in late October 2017. It moved above Red (weakening) on weekending Jul 28, 2018, but again falling below Red (strengthening) on weekending Aug 31, 2018 and remaining there to date, but almost climbing above Red (weakening) . Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.31CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values exceeding $1.79CA to $1.88CA.

 

The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 149-159Yen/U.S. dollar. It shifted from the zone of neutrality to strengthening in late Feb 2018 and continues residence there with some recent steadying. It remains in a tight trading zone, while weakening just above Red on weekending Sep 30, 2018, but a again back into the neutral zone. It strengthens when falling. Trade tensions remain influential on international exchanges. Despite that, international currencies are remaining stable with the yen very stable the past three years.

 

British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency at that time. It lost Red Bull status on week-ending May 11, 2018 by falling into the zone of neutrality and then returning to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 7, 2018. It continues to resist deepening its Yellow Bear status, but a Yellow Bear nonetheless. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.29 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.87-$0.91 by Dec 31, 2020. It falling to Yellow Bear status and not yet recovering suggests its long-term bearish cycle will not be overcome on the short-term horizon.

 

The Bitcoin toppled $16,000 on most exchanges in late 2017 in skyrocketing fashion. It has weakened since then. It lost Red Bull status in late Mar/early Apr 2018. Even though it has declined, it remains in the zone of neutrality and resisting Yellow Bear status for several weeks, while remaining between $4,000-$9,000. It is now nearing Yellow Bear status.

                       

Gold remains a Yellow Bear. It did not hold Red Bull status after regaining that status on Jan 16, 2018, dipping slightly below Red on week-ending May 11, 2018 and falling to Yellow Bear status during weekending Jul 13, 2018 and recently becoming a stronger Yellow Bear, while displaying some resistance there. Prevailing interest rates remain low, despite their recent hikes, and the corresponding weak dollar is encouraging bullish potential for gold. At some point, rising rates will strengthen the dollar, influencing gold’s bearishness. That remains as the current theme, as the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,295/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $710-$712/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 2017, but fell below Red on Oct 25, 2018 and quickly dropped to Yellow Bear status on weekending Nov 17, 2018. It continues deepening its Yellow Bear status, where there is nothing to prevent it from becoming even more bearish. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $53/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Saudi Royalty is most likely targeting $90/BBL for the time being but lost a little ground on that the past four weeks. They have now had to resort to production cuts.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures remains in the zone of neutrality after regaining Red Bull status on Nov 23, 2017 and after succumbing to the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 10, 2017. It repelled Yellow Bear status in early Oct 2018 with a bullish bounce consistent with economic robustness. It again fell to Yellow Bear status on weekending Nov 23, 2018, which is unusual during economic robustness. The 2020-mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020.

 

Mortgage rates abandoned Yellow Bear status on Nov 3, 20 16 with a sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not for those desiring home ownerships. On Nov 25, 2016, it lost that Red Bull status. Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status in early March 2018 with momentum in their bullish configurations and continuing with bullish configurations. They shifted slightly downward last week, but retained Red Bull status.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.

 

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. This fund has remained flat to mildly bearish since then, enduing a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018 after falling to Yellow Bear status. It is down 22.4% since that sell signal.

 

Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also endured a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 14.4% since that sell signal.

 

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, endured a sell signal on Nov 23, 2018. It is up 2.3% since then.

 

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, endured a sell signal on Oct 19, 2018. It is down 21.6% since then.

 

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 6.6% since that sell signal.

 

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 4.6% since that sell signal.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Oct 11, 2018. It is down 9.2% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 25, 2018. It is down 1.3% since then.

           

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Nov 12, 2018. It is up 1.6% since then.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 4.8% since then.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.    

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for three of the ten of the major indices. The existing bulls are up by an average of 35.0% since their bull signals an average of 103.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 17.5%.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $70.087-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.828-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.164-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.641-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $1.952-million. That beats buy and hold’s $774,418 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $34.339-million. That is better than buy and hold $841,146 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,730.8%, 107.5%, 176.7%, and 4,739.8%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 98.8% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of course, if that happens, you would not enjoy the opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 782.2% (annualized at 28.8%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,413-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Nov 30-Bullish force vectors are maturing, yellow bears remain dominant, and vector pressure remains deep inside bearish domains. With that there were no new bull signals or buy signals. The stock market’s bullishness this past week due to Fed dovishness. That may develop in a sustainable bull. Political fundamentals remain threatening to the stock market bull.

 

Wed-Nov 28-Fundamentally, today’s bullish stock market behavior has follow-on potential with the Federal Reserve stabilizing interest rates. Technically, several Yellow Bears and bearish vector pressure continues with those bearish attributes persisting. Once they shift into bullish attributes new bull and buy signals will be triggered. The Dow Transports-(Chart) enjoyed a new bull signal today, destroying short-term bearish unanimity along both the near-term and quick-term cycles.

 

Mon-Nov 26-Strong stock market bullishness with average volume and disfigured force vectors meandering in bearish domains is not supportive of a turnaround to bullish dominance at this time. The only major non-contrarian index with bullish short-term attributes is the Dow Transports-(Chart). All the others are pathetically configured in support of the stock market bear.

 

Please review the below sections for more insight.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 2 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 4.1-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 11.2%; Annualized Performance: 140.8%-Due to contrarians-VIX bullishness.

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 10 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 2.5-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: +2.2%

Near-term Performance Advantage: Oct 5, 2018-Stock Market Bear

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 11 of 12. 

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 12 

Near-term Position Advantage: Nov 28, 2018-Stock Market Bull

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary  

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 2 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 4.1-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 11.2%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 140.8%- Due to contrarians-VIX bullishness.

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 10 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term: Bears: 2.4-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: 2.8%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1 of 12 

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Nov 12, 2018-Quick-term Stock Market Bear

                       

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 1 of 11 

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 11 of 11                                              

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 11 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bear, effective Nov 15, 2018. On Nov 20, 2018, the stock market bear annihilated the short-term stock market bull. On Nov 28, 2018, the stock market bull exacted its revenge. Both are wounded and the battle continues.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri -Nov 30-Light volume on late day stock market bullishness is not yet convincing of bullish continuations.

 

Thu-Nov 29-Increased volume on mild stock market bearishness expresses some timidity.

 

Wed-Nov 28-Volume was up a tad on very strong stock market bullishness. That bullishness was late day based on Federal Reserve commentary on holding interest rates steady.

 

Tue-Nov 27-Recent average volume was blasé on flat stock market behavior.

 

Mon-Nov 26-Average volume on strong stock market bullishness correlates with a technical correction to prevailing bearish bias.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for seven-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are down by an average of 0.5% since their buy signals an average of 3.1-weeks ago, annualizing at -0.5%.

 

The NTI is avoiding 25-ETFs. They are down by an average of 0.8% since their sell signals 5.5-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 18

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Near-term Advantage: Nov 28, 2018-Stock Market Bull

         

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for seven-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 9.1% since their buy signals an average of 25.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 18.5%.

                                                           

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 25-ETFs. They are down by an average of 0.001% since their sell signals an average of 7.1-weeks ago.

                            

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 4

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 10

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term stock market bear, effective Oct 10, 2018.

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

Federal Reserve Board chit-chat prompted a very strong stock market bull last week. However, the smaller caps did not participate as much as the larger caps. That prevented renewed bull signals, as the small caps typically lead stock market bears. The incoming communist party (disguised as democrats) may act as a counter-balance to the dovish Federal Reserve. The next few weeks will indeed be interesting, as political uncertainty may carry more weight than the dovish Fed.

 

The stock market bull cannot dominate until vector pressure is in bullish domains and with prices above the short-cycle blue curve. That remains absent on most of the major indices.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

12/02/2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

©All material contained in this Web site is copyright protected. Any redistribution of any information in this Web site is expressly prohibited unless written authorization is granted by the publisher  of Indicant.Net.

Additional Hyperlinks - Just click on any of the below to get where you want to go.Become a Member | DIA History Since 1900 | Back Issues | Mutual Fund Listing | Contact Us | Historical Performance Metric | Performance Summary for Stocks and Funds | Current Performance Report Card | Sector Funds That Did Well in Bear Return to first page of Quick-term Indicant Charts

Market of 2000-2001 | ETF Tour| Option Stalking |Stocks | Ezine | Stocks in Spotight | Indicant Volume Indicator | Perspectives | Seasonality

- **** -    -*****-