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Feb 10, 2019 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

                                                          

Observations of Physical Objects – Great vs. Evil

Genius is required to produce humanmade objects. Zero talent is required to destroy humanmade objects. Some humanmade objects are designed for the intended purpose of destroying other humanmade objects, such as military ordnance. Leaders of countries with significant amounts of ordnance have deployed that ordnance to destroy their enemy’s ordnance and sometimes invoke ethnic cleansing and other forms of genocide. Those leaders did not design or manufacture those products. They were not smart enough to do that. They were orators, only, who had the ability to have dumb people listen to them and support them.

 

Orators significantly outnumber geniuses who design and manufacture humanmade objects. Orators only interaction with anything is within the easy abstract world of thought. Abstracts offer zero economic value. Orators do not contribute one penny to the economy. Only those that grow food and other agricultural products, those that manufacture products, and those that extract minerals and commodities create economic wealth. That wealth directly leads to an improved quality of life, except when the masses allow themselves to be led and an orator who has the propensity to be destructive.

 

Countries, societies, religious groups, etc. have been at war with each other throughout the millennia. Only time and a consolidation of the multitude of cultures into one culture will minimize humanity’s need for war. If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez orations manifest into reality, here is what will happen. Manufacturing and extraction would stop. Agriculture products would not be distributed, as only the farmers could eat. After that, a massive depression would start. Social chaos would ensue. Martial law would be imposed, which is any politicians real desire. Those among the masses that survived such a scenario, would be relocated into labor camps to feed the modern-day democratic party.

 

Shortly after all that, foreign governments with evil leadership would easily conquer a country without protect assets. To ease that effort, your guns will need to be ceased.

 

The economic stupidity of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a former bar tender, most likely serving and listening to a customer base of drunken losers, reflects the stupidity of those who elected her. Keep in mind, those who get into politics, such as Adolph Hitler, Bernie Sanders, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have orated their entire lives and not one time produced not even one penny to the economy. Their absence from being productive people is the source of their ignorance. An increasing majority of the world’s population does not engage in manufacturing, agriculture, or extraction. That majority is growing and becoming dumber. And they vote. Eventually, economic imbeciles rise to power by only orating and tricking idiots to listen to them.

 

The stock market bull is always listening and constantly assessing the possibility of the imbeciles having political success. If the stock market bull believes there will be political success among the economic illiterates, it will abdicate any interest in being dominant.

 

The economy remains strong, but the stock market bull is always listening to all orations. It has an infinite memory and a profound ability to project the future. Muzzling dumbness has never been easy. There have been times when the dumb have been successful in muzzling the smart. The stock market bull does not want to see that. The dumb do not produce products or services of value.

 

Currently, the stock market is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s behavior, as opposed to political orations. The Fed continues biasing toward passivity, as they reacted favorably to slow the wrath of the stock market bear late last year.

 

However, despite the level of ignorance, history clearly shows that the populace is capable of supporting stupidity. Nature always punishes stupidity, but that process is always very slow, as the majority of the stupid must starve into a minority. That process has occurred many times in the past and highly likely to occur again with the likes of idiots, such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Do not blame them; they are simply sick people. The blame has to be pointed at those who support them.

 

The next section highlights some stability in the capital markets, but with a mild decrease in support of the stock market bull

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 2-Red Bulls, 8-Non-Red Bulls

            Comment: The eight non-Red Bulls are below Red the same as last week by 2.5%. The two Red Bulls, DJIA-(Chart) and NASDAQ100-(Chart) are above Red by an average of 0.7%, which is also the same as last week. The two Red Bulls are weak ones and they remain in an undesirable minority.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls- Click for Explanation2): 8-Blue Bulls, 2-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The DJT-(Chart) lost its Blue Bull status this past week, joining the prior week’s S&P600’s lone non Blue Bull-(Chart). The DJT’s loss is a bit discerning.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: Fortunately, none of the major indices are Yellow Bears. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 19.6% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance and the economy is not being threatened. The gap between prevailing prices and the Yellow Bear is no longer relevant, due to the depth of vector pressure.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bear, 10-Non-Green Bears

                Comment: The absence of Green Bears reduces stock market bear potential. All ten major indices are above Green by an average of 7.1% percent.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 10-Reds Higher than Green; 0-Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: This attribute had been identifying an overheated bull market for several months and in the process of resetting. The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) have not enjoyed Green crossing above Red in the current bull cycle. Overall, Red is above Green by an average of 9.2%. Once Green falls below Red, stock market normalcy should return based on prevailing and projected economic fundamentals, regardless if bearish or bullish. It would be great if the magnitude of this bear would only be another 9.2% drop. Recent bullishness and newly bullish configurations may impose a delay to this bearish potential.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 9-bullish domains, 1-bearish domains

                Comment: DJU-(Chart) force vector dipped into bearish domains on weekending Dec 28, 2018. It continues moving in a bullish direction and nearing bullish domains. The other nine major index force vectors moved into bullish domains the past four weeks, offering the stock market bull a mild advantage.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 10-above pressure, 0-below pressure

                Comment: The stock market bear continues facing formidable resistance by the stock market bull with this attribute.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 9-bullish domains, 1-bearish domains

                Comment: All but one are in bullish domains, offering increasing support for the stock market bull. This will remain bullish as long as force vectors do not shift back into a bearish direction.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 9-bullish, 1-bearish

                Comment: The S&P600’s force vector shifted back into a bearish direction, offering the stock market bear some mild hope of regaining dominance. 

           

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 10-bullish, 0-bearish

            Comment: This continues shifting in favor of the stock market bull, but until they cross into bullish domains, the stock market bear has not yet hibernated.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Force vectors and vector pressure are the predominant attributes to monitor. They are shifting in favor of the stock market bull, but until vector pressure gets back into bullish domains, the stock market bull cannot fund sustainability.

 

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.

 

Mattel, NAS#33-MAT-(Chart), was up 24.6% as last week’s most bullish NASDAQ100 stock. Despite that bullishness it is down 41.0% since the Indicant’s Feb 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear, as political correctness disallows girls and boys to be what they are. Henry Schein, NAS#80-HSIC-(Chart), was down 23.4% last week, as the most bearish NASDAQ100 stock. It, however, is up 99.5% since the Indicant’s Oct 2010 buy signal. Although this stock is no longer a Red Bull, continued holding to its very nice long-term bullish trend remains safe. However, if it succumbs to the Yellow Bear with unfavorable force and pressure, it will endure a sell signal. All trends eventually reverse.

 

Electronic Art, ISTK#71-EA-(Chart), was up 7.0% as the most bullish stock in this group of stocks. It is also up 425.3% since the Indicant’s Mar 2013 buy signal. This stock was a Yellow Bear without enduring a sell signal a few weeks due to its rising force vector at that time. It is no longer a Yellow Bear as last week’s bullish behavior escaped that condition. Fuel Cell, ISTK#27-FCEL-(Chart), was down 12.7% last week, as the most bearish stock in this group. It is also down 97.8% since the Indicant’s Dec 2014 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

 

Boeing, DJIA#09-BA-(Chart), was up 4.5% as the most bullish Dow30 stock. It is also up 526.9% since the Indicant’s Oct 2011 buy signal. Continue holding this Red Bull. General Electric, DJIA#02-GE-(Chart), was down 3.7% last week as the most bearish Dow30 stock. It is also down 62.5% since the Indicant’s Jul 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

 

PG&E, DJU#07-PCG-(Chart), was up 8.6% as last week’s most bullish Dow Utility stock. Despite, this stock is down 73.4% since the Indicant’s Dec 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear, which has been the case well before the CA fires a few weeks ago. Williams Co, DJU#11-WMB-(Chart), was down 2.0% last week, as the most bearish Dow Utility stock. It is up 0.7% since the Indicant’s Oct 2018 sell signal. This stock’s Red and Yellow curves are both trending bearishly. Continue avoiding this stock.

 

Fidelity Defense and Aerospace, MF#36-FSDAX-(Chart), was up 3.3% last week, as the most bullish mutual fund. It is also up 296.0% since the Indicant’s Dec 2009 buy signal. This fund is rebounding sharply following a very sharp drop late last year. Continue holding until you see a sell signal. Fidelity Natural Gas, MF#52-FSNGX-(Chart), was down 4.8% last week, as the most bearish mutual fund. This fund is also down 12.4% since the Indicant’s Nov 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. 

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 190 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 235.9% that annualizes to 46.1%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 173-stocks and funds for an average of 266.1-weeks. There have been 18-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 131-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 17.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 70.2-weeks ago. There have been four-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on Feb 9, 2018 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 261-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 243.6-weeks. They were up by an average of 192.5% (annualized at 41.1%). There were 38-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 37.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 154.4-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were no buy signals and 22-sell signal on this weekend in 2018. There had been 15-buy signals and 25-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2018.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 260-stocks on Feb 3, 2017. They were up 160.7% since their buy signals an average of 195.4-weeks earlier, annualizing at 42.8%. There were 41-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 84.2-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 14-buy signals and two sell signals through this weekend in 2017.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 191-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Feb 12, 2016. They were up by an average of 149.5%, annualizing at 33.0%, since their respective buy signals an average of 235.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 146-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 21.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 51.2-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2016. There had been three-year-to-date buy signals and 58-sell signals through this weekend in 2016.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 289-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Feb 6, 2015. They were up by an average of 142.7%, annualizing at 38.2%, since their respective buy signals an average of 194.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 47-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 13.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 60.7-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2015. There had been a total of one-buy signal and eleven-sell signals through this weekend in 2015.

 

There were 311-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Feb 7, 2014 since their buy signals an average of 148.0-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 106.5% (annualized at 27.4%). There were 25-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 23.5% from their respective sell signals an average of 73.3-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and two sell signals on this weekend in 2014. There had been one buy signal and eight sell signals through this weekend in 2014.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

If the stock market bear has indeed hibernated, the relatively large numbers of avoided stocks and funds will provide more opportunities for buying since 2009, where nearly all stocks and funds were avoided early that year. Although there are not as many avoided stocks and funds being avoided as in early 2009, there are still plenty of opportunities

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 244.6% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 555.1% and the S&P500 is up 248.6% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 447.4% since October 9, 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was bullish by 3.7% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.

 

The NASDAQ was down 6.7% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was down 2.9% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 2.9% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

 

It was down 4.1% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.

           

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 2.8% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.  

 

The NASDAQ was up 3.0% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. This week was extraordinarily bearish in that year, as the stock market bear had already been dominating since July of that year. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.

 

The NASDAQ was down by 13.1% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.

                       

It was up 0.9% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

 

The NASDAQ was down 6.3% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.

 

It was up 5.4% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.

           

The NASDAQ was up 11.9% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  

 

It was up 5.8% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  

           

The NASDAQ was down 1.2% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.

.                                                                                                                                                                      

The NASDAQ was down 0.2% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.

           

The NASDAQ was down 14.5% on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the “obvious” president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.

 

The NASDAQ was up 5.6% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up by 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness and especially so with rising interest rates.

 

The NASDAQ was down 1.8% on this weekend in the 2018-presidential mid-term election year. The Blue Wave was reported as coming most of that year. With that “communistic” threat, the stock market bull was absent most of the year with a bearish conclusion. The NASDAQ closed down by 3.9%, while the S&P500 was down 6.2% and the Dow down 5.6% for 2018.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 7.6% this year. The S&P500 is up 8.0% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 10.0% this year. The S&P600 is up 10.6% this year.  The Dow Transports is up 11.0% and Dow Utilities is up 3.8% this year. The S&P400 is up 11.4% this year.

 

The Dow is up 77.2% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 155.3% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is up 73.0% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.

 

All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 33.9%.

 

The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 44.6%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is above that peak by 46.9%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 42.9%. Those paltry gains have not kept up with inflation. With that consideration they are still down since their 2000-peaks.

 

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

 

The Dow is up 283.5% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 475.3% and the S&P500 is up 300.3% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 414.5% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive, but recent rate hikes offer some arguments against being passive.           

 

The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish, but democrats are about to take over the U.S. House of Representatives and the last time that happened in 2007 the stock market peaked ahead of its 2008-bearish behavior.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition.

 

Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics will be inflationary. Despite that eventuality, inflation remains tame for the time being. Recently reported CPI was deflationary, due in part, to falling oil prices. As of Jan 3, 2019, House Democrats will stifle the Trump agenda, but the economic elements may not be. The markets anticipated the Pelosi promotion with the VIX bull signal in late Oct 2018.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased another 25-basis point on week-ending Dec 21, 2018. That followed similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018,  Jun 15, 2018 and Sep 30, 2018. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election, although pretty much to the Bernanke plans originating in 2008-09. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections. The Fed remains sensitive to political pressure. The annual inflation rate is being reported with only 1.9% to date this year. Oil prices are down 17.8% from this time a year ago, which has a very high correlation to inflation. There is more about oil later.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull at 2.38%. It’s gallop to the north remains bit slower than the policy hikes. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. If the Fed slows future rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be unfriendly to the stock market bull. The opposite of all that remains in effect. The Fed was dovish on the week of Jan 25, 2019, fostering the arousal of the stock market bull.

 

Fortunately, oil prices remain in decline, but bouncing north four weeks ago and holding steady the past three weeks. Production cuts are taking effect and with that the Fed will more likely become aroused for more aggression in rate hikes.

 

The Euro fell into Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jun 15, 2018. It continues attempting to escape the wrath of the Yellow Bear. The prevailing bearish trend started the enjoyment of shifting bullishly for the first time in nine years in early March 2018 like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of its long-term bearish trend. Again, that is occurring with both Red and Yellow in a bearish slope. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.70.

 

The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned to the neutral zone in late October 2017, while moving above (weakening) Red again on Dec 6, 2018 and recently displaying discomfort at above Red. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.31CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.80CA to $1.87CA.

 

There needs to be a quality check on the Yen from data sources. The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 148-159-Yen/U.S. dollar. It shifted from the zone of neutrality to strengthening in late Feb 2018 and continues residence there with some recent steadying with minimal vacillations around Red (weakening). It remains in a tight trading zone, while weakening just above Red on weekending Sep 30, 2018 and again on Dec 6, 2018. It strengthens when falling and it fell to Yellow on weekending Jan 25, 2019. Trade tensions remain influential on international exchanges. Despite that, international currencies are remaining stable with the yen very stable since early 2016.

 

British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency at that time. It lost Red Bull status on week-ending May 11, 2018 by falling into the zone of neutrality and then returning to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 7, 2018. It continues to resist deepening its Yellow Bear status, but a Yellow Bear nonetheless. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.27 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.87-$0.91 by Dec 31, 2020. It falling to Yellow Bear status and not yet recovering suggests its long-term bearish cycle will not be overcome on the short-term horizon. Recent British elections have not yet destabilized the pound.

           

The Bitcoin toppled $16,000 on most exchanges in late 2017 in skyrocketing fashion. It has weakened since then. It lost Red Bull status in late Mar/early Apr 2018 and finally fell into Yellow Bear status on Dec 7, 2018 at below $4,000. It has been stable for the past several months but with a steady bearish drift.

                       

Gold climbed out of Yellow Bear status on weekending Dec 21, 2018 on strong bearishness in the equity markets and now enjoying Red Bull status.  That suggests added fear on both the political and inflationary fronts with Bernie Sanders-like comments from communistic democrats that everything is free. Gold reflects a growing fear of too many stupid people buying into that lunacy. At some point, rising rates will strengthen the dollar, influencing gold’s bearishness. That remains as the current theme but being challenged a bit with potential weakening of the U.S. dollar. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,297/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $770-$802/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 201 7, but fell below Red on Oct 25, 2018 and quickly dropped to Yellow Bear status on weekending Nov 17, 2018. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $52/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Saudi Royalty is most likely targeting $90/BBL for the time being but lost a little ground on that the past four weeks. They have now had to resort to production cuts.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures fell into Yellow Bear status on Nov 23, 2018 and deepening that status, while stabilizing the past four weeks. It continues reflecting deflation. The 2020-mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020.

 

Mortgage rates lost Red Bull status on weekending Jan 4, 2019 after abandoning Yellow Bear status on Nov 3, 2016 with a sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not for those desiring home ownerships. They are now approaching Yellow Bear status, but most likely a temporary dip.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.

 

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. This fund has remained flat to mildly bearish since then, enduing a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018 after falling to Yellow Bear status. It is down 21.6% since that sell signal.

 

Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also endured a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 0.3% since that sell signal.

 

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, endured a sell signal on Nov 23, 2018. It is down 3.1% since then.

 

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, endured a sell signal on Oct 19, 2018. It is down 30.0% since then.

 

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 11.4% since that sell signal.

 

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 12.0% since that sell signal.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Oct 11, 2018. It is down 12.3% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 25, 2018. It is down 4.7% since then.

           

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Dec 6, 2018. It is up 5.6% since then, annualizing at 31.7%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.    

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for nine of the ten of the major indices. They are up by 0.5% since their respective bull signals 4.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 5.7%.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $66.252-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.763-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.325-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.594-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.070-million. That beats buy and hold’s $729,820 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $35.512-million. That is better than buy and hold $728,648 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,660.4%, 108.6%, 182.3%, and 4,748.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 98.8% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of course, if that happens, you would not enjoy the opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 767.3% (annualized at 28.0%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,423-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Feb 8-Bullish unanimity along the short-term cycle remains in effect with bull signals for both the near-term and quick-term cycles for the ten major indices That coupled with contrarian VIX’s continuing bear signals remains in support of the stock market bull.

 

Please review the below sections for more insight.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 3.9-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 4.7%; Annualized Performance: 63.5%

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 4.0-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -13.5%

Near-term Performance Advantage: Jan 11, 2019-Stock Market Bull, replacing Oct 5, 2018-Stock Market Bear

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 11 of 12. 

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 12 

Near-term Position Advantage: Jan 4, 2019-Stock Market Bull (Change from Dec 7, 2018)

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary  

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 2.6-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 1.5%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 29.9%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 4.9-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -13.5%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1 of 12 

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Shifted from Nov 12, 2018-Quick-term Stock Market Bear to Feb 1, 2019 neutral configuration due to absence of any Red Bulls.

                       

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 2 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 1 of 11                                    

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 11 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull-effective Jan 11, 2019, replacing Nov 15, 2018-Stock Market Bear support.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-Feb 8-Recent average volume on stock market flatness suggests some uncertainty of stock market directional intensity.

 

Thu-Feb 7-Mildly increased volume on stock market bearishness is supportive of the bear.

 

Wed-Feb 6- Recent average volume with stock market bearishness is not inspiring to more of the same.

 

Tue-Feb 5- Recent average volume with stock market bullishness is not inspiring to more of the same.

 

Mon-Feb 4-Recent average volume with stock market bullishness is not inspiring to more of the same.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 3.9% since their buy signals an average of 3.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 53.9%.

 

The NTI is avoiding 3-ETFs. They are down by an average of 4.9% since their sell signals an average of 7.0-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 23

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Near-term Advantage: Jan 4, 2019-Stock Market Bull, replacing Dec 7, 2018-Stock Market Bear

         

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 20-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 2.0% since their buy signals an average of 3.1-weeks ago, annualizing at 34.5%.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETFs. They are down by an average of 3.4% since their sell signals an average of 7.4-weeks ago.

                            

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 3

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term stock market bull, effective Feb 1, 2019, replacing bearish bias on Oct 10, 2018.

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

The lone deficiency from desired bullish configurations is the S&P600-Small Index, which is just barely below the Blue Curve. The other nine major indices have the desired bullish attributes. The S&P600 force vector shifted into a bearish direction this past week, offering the stock market bear a bit of hope. This coming week will indeed be interesting.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

02/10/2019

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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