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May 17, 2020 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 5, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

                                                          

The Stock Market’s Dreaded M-Shape

All ten major index force vectors are now solidly moving in a bearish direction. Only the NASDAQ and NASDAQ100 are Blue Bulls along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. The Short-term Indicant cycle is in the process of shifting into more support for the stock market bear. Although the so-called V-shape recovery is now being challenged, historical observations reveal similar such starts that shifted into a bearish direction. That occurred at the onset of the Great Depression, which was caused by politicians. They always meddle and it is impossible for such meddling to improve anything economic. The primary enemy to your economic well-being are your elected politicians, where the weak among us tend to become.

 

Nancy Pelosi’s three trillion plan, if implemented, will wreak economic havoc for more than one generation, while the Great Depression imposed pain and misery for just one generation. As Senator Schumer suggested, Trump needs to be more like FDR. The ignorance of the masses who vote for such evil lunatics. History seldom reveals a good political leader, but yet generation after generation follows them. You can see the results of political chaos by viewing the Dow 1929-1933-Chart by clicking this sentence. Notice the multiple attempts by the stock market bull to dominate. Such attempts endured the dreaded M-Shape.

 

All ten force vectors are moving in a bearish direction. That was expected as they matured very similarly to 1929-1933 force vector behavior. However, two of the major indices misbehaved. They were the DJT-(Chart) and DJU-(Chart). Both fell into bearish domains with bearishly positioned vector pressure. That is indeed bearish and very much so.

 

Arguing with that bearishness are the NASDAQ100-(Chart) and the NASDAQ-(Chart). Both are solid Red Bulls and Blue Bulls along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. Even though their force vectors are falling, their vector pressures are solidly inside bullish domains. If they do not succumb to the stock market bear and hold at least some of those bullish attributes, the stock market bull can offer some resistance against the stock market bear.

 

Your politicians meddled with the Corona Virus, economically. There was already going to be economic damage from that. Now, they are wanting to do more meddling. Keep in mind, the Spanish Flu was bad, killing many more than the Covid-19 Virus has. IQ’s were higher then, than now. Politicians recommended countermeasures, honoring their oath to the U.S. Constitution. Contemporary politicians violated their oath and Blue State politicians are doubling down on their violations. It is going to be hard for the stock market bull to be inspired with a communistic takeover. Communism and stock market bulls cannot coexist for very long.

 

As long as all these violations and political meddling continue, the stock market bull will find difficulty dominating. Of course, Pelosi’s three-trillion lunacy will not pass the Senate or Trump. However, if the masses become dumber and impose a democratic majority in both the Senate and House with Biden or any democrat as president, the stock market bear will start manifesting a deep and long-last bear if the real investing community believes that will result in about six months. So far, some attributes are already configuring that way.

 

Set tighter stop losses on all holdings. Keep your eye on the NASDAQ and NASDAQ100. If they turn bearish, the stock market bear will dominate.

 

Please read the next section.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 2-Red Bulls, 8-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: The NASDAQ-(Chart) and the NASDAQ100-(Chart) remain as the only Red Bulls. Those two indices are above Red by an average of 8.0%. The other eight major indices are below Red by an average of 8.3%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 2-Blue Bulls, 8-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The NASDAQ100-(Chart) and the NASDAQ-(Chart) remain as the only major indices with Blue Bull status. They are above blue by an average of 4.1%. The other eight major indices are below blue by an average of 8.4%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 3-Yellow Bears, 7-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: They three Yellow Bears are the DJT-(Chart), S&P400-(Chart), and S&P600-(Chart). They are below Yellow by an average of 10.3%. The other seven non-Yellow Bears are above yellow by 18.9%. The gap between non-Yellow bears and Yellow bears remains discerning.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 2-Green Bears, 8-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: Eight major indices are above green by 10.4%. The DJT-(Chart) and the S&P600-(Chart) are below green by 5.4%. Stock market stabilization is not supported with 15.8% gap.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 10-Reds Higher than Green; 0-Green Higher Than Red

              Comment: The ten major red curves are above the green curve by an average of 22.4%. This attribute is relevant until after the next major bullish swing when green curves will cross above the red curves.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 8-bullish domains, 2-bearish domains

              Comment: Two major indices crossed back into bearish domains after finding discomfort in bullish domains. That is increasingly bearish. They were the DJT-(Chart) and DJU-(Chart). A bearish DJU eliminates the safety escape, adding increasing bearish bias.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 9-above pressure, 1-below pressure

              Comment: The DJU-(Chart) fell below Vector Pressure this past week, offering the stock market bear an ally.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 6-bullish domains, 4-bearish domains

              Comment: The majority are now in bullish domains. That would normally be bullish, but falling force threatens that normally bullish attribute.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 0-bullishly directed, 10-bearishly directed

              Comment: As stated two weeks ago, bullishly directed force vectors suggests the stock market bull is willing to battle the stock market bear. That willingness is now shrinking a bit.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 10-bullishly directed, 0-bearishly directed

            Comment: All ten vector pressures are bullishly directed for the fourth consecutive week. Keep in mind, they need to penetrate bullish domains. Until that happens, the stock market bear remains with significant potential to attack. So far, four have penetrated bullish domains. The stock market bull requires all ten in bullish domains to be dominant.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Several attributes shifted favor of the stock market bear. This suggests the stock market my be M-Shaped.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. Of course, the website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated two-buy signals and 14-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 166 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 285.0% that annualizes to 68.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 166-stocks and funds for an average of 216.1-weeks. There have been 107-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 134-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 29.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 77.8-weeks ago. There have been 196-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on May 17, 2019 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 236-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 236.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 213.1% (annualized at 46.9%). There were 81-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 28.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 98.5-weeks earlier, one year ago. There was one buy signal and three sell signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 81-buy signal and 20-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 246-stocks on May 18, 2018. They were up 219.7% since their buy signals an average of 253.8-weeks earlier, annualizing at 45.0%. There were 73-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 83.6-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2018. There had been 32-buy signals and 56-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 253-stocks and funds of the 301-tracked on May 19, 2017. They were up by an average of 184.9%, annualizing at 44.9%, since their respective buy signals an average of 214.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 45-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 22.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 102.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 22-year-to-date buy signals and 18-sell signals through this weekend in 2017. This year was profoundly bullish, following the fake stock market bear on election night in 2016. Wall Street liberals are real and they errantly thought the world was ending on Trump’s election that evening. A few days after the 2016 presidential election and Trump’s victory, the stock market bull stampeded with several record setting events. The number of “real investors” wiped out the Wall Street liberals as Trumponomics is very real, as opposed to the phoniness of the Wall street liberals and their DC brethren.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 210-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on May 13, 2016. They were up by an average of 148.1%, annualizing at 36.7% since their respective buy signals an average of 209.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 127-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an

average of 18.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 60.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2016. There had been a total of 32-buy signals and 68-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. The stock market endured some bearish cycles in this year as Hillary Clinton led in the polls. Once she lost, the stock market bull stampeded to the north with phenomenal ferocity.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

As political meddling in the U.S. economy continues with more to come, set tight stop losses. The stock market bear holds an edge over the stock market bear. Until falling force vectors shift back into a bullish direction the stock market bear will retain that advantage. The Indicant is now 42.5% out of the market which is below being out by over 74% in March. The rebound following the late Feb and early Mar 173-sell signals was followed by 101 buy signals since Apr 10, 2020. With that, the bullish rebound remains weaker than the bearish onslaught from COVID-19. Keep your eye on the NASDAQ100 and NASDAQ. They are the only two major indices with bullish configurations. If they lose them, there will be more sell signals.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition. Recent promotions of communism, if successful, will result in zero for all capital stocks. The DNC and followers in the pontificating press are doing their best using the coronavirus to accelerate that effort. The coronavirus bear could be the start of a much deeper bear, but so far, the impact to the stock market bear has not been catastrophic. The two trillion bailout will be inflationary, but with some luck low oil prices may minimize that. The increasingly low IQ that has destroyed many prior civilizations is manifesting by your contemporarily elected sociopaths.

 

Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics will be inflationary and heightened even more with money supply increasing far above earned money. Despite that eventuality, inflation remains tame for the time being. The annual inflation rate is being reported at only 0.3% to date this year. Oil prices are down 55.7% from this time one year ago, despite price jumps in two of the past three weeks. Commodities are deflating, however.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate decreased by 100-basis points on Mar 20, 2020, following a 50-basis point cut on weekending Mar 6, 2020.  That followed less aggressive decreases on Aug 2, 2019, Sep 19, 2019, and Nov 2, 2019. These less aggressive decreases were miniscule to the increases on Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018, Sep 30, 2018, and Dec 21, 2018. High unemployment and semi-germ warfare from China are confronting the stock market bull.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill fell to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 19, 2019.  After falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear, it started a rebound attempt on weekending Jan 10, 2020, but fell deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 6, 2020 and rapidly falling even more since then and below zero on weekending Mar 19, 2020, with a small bounce north of zero on weekend Apr 3, 2020 and holding there the past few weeks.

                                                                                

The Euro escaped Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jan 10, 2020, but fell back into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Feb 14, 2020 and barely remaining there. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.93 to $0.94. The absence of variation in its steady decline is impressive.

 

The Canadian dollar climbed above Red (weakening) on weekending Mar 13, 2020 after climbing above Yellow (weakening) on weekending Aug 23, 2019. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.32CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.58CA to $1.63CA.

 

The Japanese Yen continues in a steady downward drift (strengthening), falling barely into the domain of the Yellow Bear (stronger). This currency has been and remains very stable since 2015. Its statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 131-143-Yen/U.S. dollar. Its flatness the past three years is unusual. That helps international stabilization, which is always welcome by the stock market bull. It also strengthened with the mild rate reduction by the U.S. Fed on weekending Aug 2, 2019, but with limited impact on the Sep 19, 2019 rate reduction and continued steadiness with crazy Coronavirus reactions since early Feb 2020.

 

British Pound’s 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.31 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $1.03-$1.13 by Dec 31, 2020. Since its mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it drifted, bearishly. It climbed above Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 18, 2019 and above Red on weekending, Dec 5, 2019, and again falling below Red on weekending Feb 7, 2020. After resting in the zone of neutrality, it fell into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 13, 2020 but has since strengthened and stabilizing somewhat in the domain of the Yellow Bear.

 

The Bitcoin lost Red Bull status on weekending Feb 20, 2020, after regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 13, 2020 and falling into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 13, 2020. It climbed out Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 3, 2020 with massive greenback printing in overzealous responses to the Coronavirus attack from China. It remains in the zone of neutrality (between Red and Yellow) with some bullishness to it. It is now just below the domain of the Red Bull.

                       

Gold climbed sharply above Red on weekending Jun 21, 2019.  After a long rest, it remains a Red Bull, but falling sharply for four weeks until bullish rebound on Apr 16, 2020. Prior deflationary threats are subsiding, but gold remains bullish. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,305/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $990-$1,110/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil fell into Yellow Bear status on Feb 6, 2020. After falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear, it rebounded strongly on weekending Apr 6, 2020 and continuing its rebound with OPEC/Russian production cuts. Its recent movement is congruent to stock market bearishness and stock market bullishness. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $20 to $21. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $52/bbl.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures escaped Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 13, 2019 after falling into Yellow Bear status on Nov 23, 2018. It is now finding a nestling location but well into the depths of the domain of the Yellow Bear. The 2020-mean forecast is at $180, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting $110-$105 by 2020. Its current configuration offers no support for inflation. It has been uncharacteristically steady for several years. Prior threatening deflationary concerns are subsiding.

 

Mortgage rates fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  They remain as Yellow Bears. This remains a great time to finance real estate for those willing to incur debt during uncertainties from the Coronavirus and the more damaging sociopathic politicians.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak. The coronavirus had been disrupting that line of thinking, but nearing its disruptive end.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and one new bear signal this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.          

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for two major indices. They are up by an average of 7.7%, annualizing at 88.4%. Those bulls are the NASDAQ-(Chart) and the NASDAQ100-(Chart). The DJU-(Chart) endured the new bear signal.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bear for seven major indices. They are down by an average of 10.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear an average of 11.0-weeks ago. The most bearish is the S&P600, which is down 19.5% since its bear signal on Feb 28, 2020. The least bearish is the S&P100. It is down 0.1% since its Feb 28, 2020 bear signal.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $67.052-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.550-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.629-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.687-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.124-million. That beats buy and hold’s $901,456 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $29.860-million. That is better than buy and hold $555,657 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,888.5%, 215.4%, 235.6%, and 5,373.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a week or two for the statistics to settle.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.5% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although poll accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the stock market bull. Of course, if that happens, you would not be allowed to benefit from that opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you. Politburo’s confiscate. This fund remains too depressed for a coronavirus buy at this point. At this point it is better to purchase related ETF, QID, when you see a buy signal.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 718.2% (annualized at 25.1%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,489-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-May 15-All non-contrarian force vectors and vector pressure is now directionally bearish. Prior points of resistance are now being challenged at the demarcation between bullish and bearish domains. Overall, the stock market bear is being favored along the short-term cycle.

 

Thu-May 14-Late day stock market bullishness was accompanied with subdued volume and thus non-supportive of bullish continuation. Arguing with that are several force vectors moving bearishly an how just above bearish domains. The last such cycle inspired the stock market bull with force’s resisting a drop into bearish domains. Blue State governors are working hard to depress corporate profits, accelerating their desire for a recessing the economy. The masses in those states, so far, are dutifully following the path of poverty as many generations before this one.

 

Wed-May 13-The NYSE-(Chart) endured a near-term bear signal today. The majority of the major indices are enduring near-term bear signals. Contrarian VIX-(Chart) crossed above pressure. If it holds, it will enjoy a new bull signal. Its related ETN, VXX-(Chart), enjoyed a buy signal. All that does not bode well for the stock market bear. Vector pressure remains in bullish domains for the most part, but so far that attribute has not been buffering the wrath of the stock market bear. That is still a chance that can stop the stock market bear, but that chance now less than the risk of continued holding.

 

Tue-May 12-Short-term force vectors shifted to a bearish direction. That triggered new bear signals for the DJC-(Chart), DJT-(Chart), S&P400-(Chart), and S&P600-(Chart). They are weakly configured within the domain of near-term neutrality (between blue and green). The DJU-(Chart) is already both a near-term and quick-term bear. Sell all utility related securities you may be holding. Communistic democrats are using the pandemic to do what communist do. They hurt or destroy all below them, while they live the good life. The stock market bull cannot coexist with their success. The stock market bull does not want continued shut-downs and violators to the U.S. Constitution.

 

Mon-May 11-The NASDAQ-(Chart) and NASDAQ100-(Chart) are racing to pre-pandemic levels. Both are solid Red Bulls. Other major indices remain as Yellow Bears. There will be convergence to zero disparity between Red Bulls and Yellow Bears. Short-term configurations strongly favor the stock market bull at this time, while the more stable mid-term attributes are mildly favor the stock market bear. The DJU-(Chart) is not behaving in a contrarian manner and increasingly bearish along both the short-term and mid-term cycle. However, its force vector continues moving in a bullish direction. Sell all related utility securities if they shift bearishly at any time this week.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and one new bear.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 4 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 5.3-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 8.0%; Annualized Performance: 78.6%.

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 7 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 1.1-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -3.6%

Near-term Performance Advantage: May 13-Stock Market Bear

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue             Bulls: 2 of 12 

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 12

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Apr 9-Stock Market Bull

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 4 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 4.9-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 6.1%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 65.6%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 8 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 9.1-weeks-avg.     

Quick-term Bear Performance: -14.7%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2 of 12 (The lone Red Bull is the NASDAQ100) 

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 7 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Feb 27, 2020-Quick-term Advantage to Bear

                       

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 2 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 8 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction:  of 11                                             

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 0 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull-effective Apr 8, 2020.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-May 15-Steady volume on stock market steadiness is encouraging, but still not supportive of a shift in directional intensity.

 

Thu-May 14-Late day bullishness with milder light volume suggests limited continuation of that bullish exuberance.

 

Wed-May 13-Volume was down a bit and closer to recent averages. However, it is high enough to continue favoring the stock market bear along the short-term cycle.

 

Tue-May 12-Increased volume on solid stock market bearishness suggests more of the same. It should be noted that both volume indicators have shifted into a direction of low interest. Much of that is seasonal, while today’s volume was seasonally high, favoring the stock market bear.

 

Mon-May 11-Volume remains along recent averages, again supporting the theme of stock market stabilization. That does not mean volatility has expired. It simply means the stock market is comfortable at current levels, even though with an ability to bounce significantly up and down at prevailing levels.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 18-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 5.4% since their buy signals an average of 5.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 54.2%.

 

The NTI is avoiding 15-ETFs. They are down by an average of 1.8% since their sell signals an average of 3.3-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 5

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bull Apr 9, 2020

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 16.5% since their buy signals an average of 14.6-weeks ago, annualizing at 58.8%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 20-ETFs. They are down by an average of 17.2% since their sell signals an average of 9.2-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 4

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 17

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bear Mar 9, 2020

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:    

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

The NASDAQ-(Chart) and NASDAQ100-(Chart) remain as the lone Mid-term Indicant bulls. They are the lone protectors of the stock market bull. All of the other major indices are very bearishly configured. As stated for several weeks, “as long as vector pressure remains in bearish domains, the stock market bear has capacity to attack.”

 

The stock market bull needs the NASDAQ-(Chart) and NASDAQ100-(Chart) to retain their status as Red Bulls and force vector must shift back into a bullish direction before the stock market bull can resume its path.

 

Set very tight stop losses, as the stock market bear remains too strongly configured with the weakening bullish rally.  

 

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Indicant Conclusion

Force vector behavior is increasingly unfriendly to the stock market bull with a majority of the major indices in  a strong bearish direction. Force vectors remain below vector pressure. Until force moves above pressure, the stock market bull remains absent.  

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

05/17/2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

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