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Note to public. You are welcome to read this ezine and other content in this web site. You can click on the "back issues" link at the top of this page to gain significant insights about the stock market and the economy. Throughout this ezine and back issues there are several links to pages inside this web site. Only members can access certain pages from these links. The phenomena of commonality dictates this policy. In other words, the buy/hold and sell/avoid positions are limited to a few people. The Indicant is not mass marketed.. You can become a member, but after membership goals are achieved, no new members will be allowed. The investment crowd is always wrong and we have no desire to create a crowd.

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Sep 13, 2020 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 9, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

                                                          

Bullish Unanimity Lost Due to Small Cap Bearishness

It is disappointing for those desiring a bullish stock market for the small cap indices to fall prey to the stock market bear. The mid-cap index, S&P400-(Chart), and the small cap index, S&P600-(Chart), both endured bear signals along the Mid-term Indicant cycle after this week’s stock market close. Those two indices also endured Short-term Indicant bear signals this past Wednesday, which was a solidly bullish day for the stock market.

 

You can access both Short-term Indicant charts by clicking this sentence. As you can see, both their vector pressures fell into bearish domains this past Wednesday, despite their bullishness that day along with bullishness in the other major indices. Bearishly positioned vector pressure, along with falling below the near-term green curve triggered the new bear signals. Both of their force vectors continue diving deep into bearish domains.

 

The smaller cap indices represent companies who do not have sufficient lobbying capacity in the swamp lands of Washington D.C., which is the capitol of corruption. When the polls suggest probabilities, favoring the democratic party, the smaller caps are the first to fall from bullish favor. Rules and regulations will be increased with a democratic victory, favoring the larger caps at the expense of the smaller caps, small business, and even you, as an individual.

 

The Short-term Indicant’s bear signal means that both the Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled bear. The reason the Quick-term Indicant signaled bear before falling below Yellow was due to its proximity to its prior bull signal. Post Covid nervousness generated excessive bull/bear signals. Parameters were adjusted to signal bull when eclipsing Red. Last Wednesday’s small and mid-cap configurations threatened profitability and thus the quicker than normal bear signal was triggered. Bearish vector pressure is a predominant attribute and with it in bearish domains, excessive risks in holding smaller caps manifested.

 

The Mid-term Indicant normally signals bear with bearish force and pressure and when prices fall below the short-cycle green curve. The gap between prevailing prices and the green curve is too wide to continue holding as these smaller cap indices are the most volatile among the major indices. Falling below the blue curve with falling force below pressure triggered the new bear signals. Clicking the (Chart) for the S&P400-Index and the Chart) for the S&P600-Index will show you these conditions. That coupled with their previous bull signals being triggered by eclipsing the short-cycle blue curve added to the risks of holding these smaller caps.

 

The mid-term election year of 2010 remains with historical significance. As you can see by clicking this sentence, the S&P400 enjoyed Bull Signal#02 in the summer of 2010. The stock market accurately predicted that Pelosi would be booted out as Speaker of the House of Representatives and that Barack Obama’s agenda would be stalemated by a republican controlled congress. Clicking this sentence for the S&P600 will show you that it never crossed below the short-cycle green curve and thus avoided a new bear signal. However, it was bearish and it also enjoyed a strong bullish rally ahead of the 2010 mid-term elections.

 

This mid-term election year is different with treason occurring in some governors’ mansions, lying politicians, and Covid, which has become entirely political. Communist China provided the U.S. democratic-communist party the most powerful gift it could. Without Covid, the democratic-communist party could not survive with a solid victory for Trump. After failing to impeach Trump and his tendency to reduce Washington D.C. regulatory agencies to “not so important” status, communist Chinese unleashed germ warfare. That, coupled with a lying mainstream press, could bring Trump down. With that, some stock market bearishness can unfold, as the stock market bull and communism will not coexist.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 7-Red Bulls, 3-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: The seven Red Bulls remain the same as the past three weeks. They are the S&P500-(Chart), S&P100-(Chart), NASDAQ-(Chart), NASDAQ100-(Chart), DJIA-(Chart), DJT-(Chart), and the DJC65-(Chart). They are blue-chip intensive and those closest to fascistic relationships with your elected representatives in congress. The seven Red Bulls are above red by an average of 8.7%. The other three major indices are below Red by an average of 8.3%. The three non-Red Bulls are the DJU-(Chart), the S&P400-(Chart), and the S&P600-(Chart).

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 7-Blue Bulls, 3-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The DJU-(Chart) remains as a non-Blue Bull for the third consecutive week. The S&P400-(Chart) and the S&P600-(Chart) lost Blue Bull status this past week. The seven Blue Bulls are above blue by 3.7%, while the non-Blue Bulls are below blue by 3.7%. The strength and weakness are in equilibrium, which never lasts more than one week.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 31.2%. The absence of Yellow Bears strongly suggest economic depression is not possible. Stock market dynamics are never wrong in predicting that, but sometimes predicts a non-existing recession.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: All major indices are above green by an average of 22.0%. Green curves continue rising and increasingly supportive of the stock market bull. They are a common point for new bear signals and their continued rising will minimize risks in being in the stock market.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 10-Reds Higher than Green; 0-Green Higher Than Red

              Comment: The ten major red curves are above the green curve by a healthy average of 18.6%. This attribute is irrelevant until after the next major bullish swing when green curves cross above the red curves. However, as you can see there is room for another 18.6% bullish move before this unfavorable condition manifests.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 9-bullish domains, 1-bearish domains

              Comment: The DJU-(Chart) has endured bearish force for two consecutive weeks. It is sometimes contrarian and that is generally a non-bearish dynamic in that money rotates to the perceived safety of utilities.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 0-above pressure, 10-below pressure

              Comment: Bearish support is no longer mild as all ten below pressure is inspirational to the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

              Comment: All ten pressure points remain in bullish domains, adding support for the stock market bull. However, they cannot defend against pestering by the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 0-bullishly directed, 10-bearishly directed

              Comment: All ten force vectors have been bearishly directed the past two weeks. Since they are below pressure, non-bullishness to bearish pestering is thematic.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 0-bullishly directed, 10-bearishly directed

            Comment: All ten bearishly directly pressures are inspirational to the stock market bear, but the bull can counter attack as long as they remain in bullish domains.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices:  Mid-term Indicant attributes are shifting to a non-bullish thematic with falling force that is less than pressure. Non-bullishness coincides with bearish pestering. As long as pressure remains in bullish domains, the stock market bear cannot completely dominate.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. Of course, the website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no-buy signals and four-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 227 of the 316-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 287.0% that annualizes to 93.0%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 227-stocks and funds for an average of 160.5-weeks. There have been 208-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 85-stocks and funds of 316-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 32.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 124.7-weeks ago. There have been 239-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on Sep 13, 2019 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 236-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 256.0-weeks. They were up by an average of 238.6% (annualized at 48.5%). There were 79-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 27.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 100.7-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were six buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 139-buy signals and 73-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 75.4% in the market and avoids were 24.6% out of the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 236-stocks and funds on Sep 14, 2018. They were up 229.1% since their buy signals an average of 233.5-weeks earlier, annualizing at 51.0%. There were 69-avoided stocks and funds on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 81.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2018. There had been 64-buy signals and 82-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year. Hold signals were 78.5% in the market and avoid signals were 21.5% out of the market at this time of year in 2018.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 261-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked on Sep 15, 2017. They were up by an average of 186.8%, annualizing at 43.1% since their respective buy signals an average of 225.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 49-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 16.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 96.8-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 59-year-to-date buy signals and 48-sell signals through this weekend in 2017. This year was profoundly bullish, following the fake stock market bear on election night in 2016. At this time that year, hold signals were 81.6% in the market and avoid signals were 18.4% out of the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 279-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Sep 9, 2016. They were up by an average of 134.5%, annualizing at 36.7% since their respective buy signals an average of 190.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 58-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an

average of 22.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 89.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2016. There had been a total of 114-buy signals and 80-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. The stock market endured some bearish cycles in this year as Hillary Clinton led in the polls. Once she lost, the stock market bull stampeded to the north with phenomenal ferocity. Hold signals were 82.5% in the market and avoid signals were 17.5% out of the market.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

There is nothing different from last week. “As political meddling in the U.S. economy continues with more to come, set tight stop losses. As stated, the past few weeks, the bull-bear battle continues. As long as that battle persists, the risk/reward ratio remains high. Another way of saying this is that projected reward/risk ratio remains low, but waning.” The Indicant is 28.2% out of the market, which is below being out by over 74% in early March 2020, based on the number of avoid-sell signals for stocks and funds along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. The Mid-term cycle is now 71.8% in the market.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition. Shifting cultural values and related ignorance is threatening to the stock market bull. Shortages are beginning to accumulate.

 

Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics and China induced germ warfare with endless government bailouts will be inflationary and heightened even more with money supply increasing far above earned money. Despite that eventuality, inflation remains tame for the time being. The annual inflation rate is being reported at only 1.0% to date this year. Oil prices, although recently rising, are down 32.4% from this time one year ago.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate decreased by 100-basis points on Mar 20, 2020, following a 50-basis point cut on weekending Mar 6, 2020.  That followed less aggressive decreases on Aug 2, 2019, Sep 19, 2019, and Nov 2, 2019. These less aggressive decreases were miniscule to the increases on Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018, Sep 30, 2018, and Dec 21, 2018. High unemployment, germ warfare from China, and overstepping communistic politicians continue confronting the stock market bull. So far, the markets are not believing the threat is sustainable. Gold and other commodities are no longer skyrocketing, while not yet collapsing.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill fell to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 19, 2019.  After falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear, it started a rebound attempt on weekending Jan 10, 2020, but fell deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 6, 2020 and rapidly falling even more after that and below zero on weekending Mar 19, 2020, with a small bounce north of zero on weekending Apr 3, 2020. It has risen slightly since that craziness that reflects humanity’s rapidly decreasing IQ. Covid-19 is being blamed, but the economic lockdown remains as the prime cause with democrats doing that in attempt to route Trump from office. Their power to them is more important than your economic or healthy well-being.

                                                                                

The Euro gained Red Bull status on weekending Jun 18, 2020 and still holding with that status and with some recent ambition to maintain Red Bull status. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.20 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.98 to $0.99. The absence of variation in its steady decline is impressive. This attempt at retaining Red Bull status reflects U.S. weakness at massive money printing machines that trace to a communistic takeover of the U.S. Government.

 

The Canadian dollar fell below Yellow (strongly strengthening) during the week of August 3, 2020. After holding there for a few weeks, it bounced north of Yellow on weekending September 11, 2020. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.32CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.54CA to $1.60CA. Canadians must be printed fake CA$’s like the fake U.S.$’s.

 

The Japanese Yen continues in a steady downward drift (strengthening). It continues with minimal variations mostly around the domain of the Yellow Bear (stronger) and became a Yellow Bear on weekending Aug 7, 2020. This currency has been and remains very stable since 2015. Its statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 127-132-Yen/U.S. dollar. Its flatness the past several years is unusual. That helps international stabilization, which is always welcome by the stock market bull. It also strengthened with the mild rate reduction by the U.S. Fed on weekending Aug 2, 2019, but with limited impact on the Sep 19, 2019 rate reduction and continued steadiness with crazy Coronavirus reactions since early Feb 2020.

 

The British Pound enjoyed Red Bull status on the week of August 3, 2020 for the first time in over a year. It is not comfortable there and fell below Red on September 10, 2020. Its statistical mean forecast is at $1.28 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $1.13-$1.19 by Dec 31, 2020. Since its mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it drifted, bearishly.

 

The Bitcoin lost Red Bull status on weekending Sep 4, 2020, after regaining Red Bull status on July 30, 2020, after losing Red Bull status on weekending Feb 20, 2020, after regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 13, 2020. As you can see it is bouncy around the bullish red curve, suggesting continuing declines in the greenback value. It climbed out Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 3, 2020 with massive greenback printing in overzealous responses to the Coronavirus attack from China.

                       

Gold climbed sharply above Red on weekending Jun 21, 2019.  It achieved an all-time high in early August 2020. Its bullishness is being threatened with congressional consideration of taxing PPP. That would bankrupt many businesses and thus deploy a deflationary influence on the dollar.  That would depress the value of gold and other commodities. However, its recent bearishness is miniscule when compared to its meteoric rise to its prevailing position. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,435/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $1,101-$1,140/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil finally moved above the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020, after falling to Yellow Bear status on Feb 6, 2020. It remains just under $40/bbl. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $20 to $25 with a mean forecast of $62/bbl.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures abandoned Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020, since succumbing to Yellow Bear status in February 2020. It is making a strong attempt to participate in anticipated inflationary pressures.

 

Mortgage rates fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  They remain as Yellow Bears and deepening so. This remains a great time to finance real estate for those willing to incur debt during uncertainties from the Coronavirus and the more damaging sociopathic politicians.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak. The coronavirus had been disrupting that line of thinking, but nearing its disruptive end.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and two new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.          

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for eight of the ten major indices. The eight bulls are up by an average of 10.6% since their bull signals an average of 10.8-weeks ago and annualizing at 51.5%. The Mid-term Indicant lost bullish unanimity along the Mid-term Indicant cycle this past week.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $62.393-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $4.147-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.587-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.967-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.664-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.085-million on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $33.407-million. That is better than buy and hold $807,807 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,504.5%, 182.3%, 245.5%, and 4,135.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a week or two for the statistics to settle.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.7% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although poll accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the stock market bull. Of course, if that happens, you would not be allowed to benefit from that opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you. Politburo’s confiscate. This fund remains too depressed for a coronavirus buy at this point. At this point it is better to purchase related ETF, QID, when you see a buy signal.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 855.7% (annualized at 29.5%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,506-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Sep 11-Most of the major indices are enduring bull-bear battles just above the near-term green curve, which is a common location for near-term bear signals. The resistance to falling below green is impressive. The only two indices falling prey to bearish pestering are the S&P400-(Chart) and S&P600-(Chart). Since last Wednesday’s bear signals for those two indices, they continue falling deeper below green. Those two indices can lead bear markets. However, the other indices are arguing with the stock market bear’s ambition to dominate. Contrarian VIX-(Chart) would normally be wildly bullish with recent stock market behavior has been relatively tame, suggesting the communistic-democratic party will not win the upcoming election. It is still down 21.8% since its June 15, 2020 bear signal. Normally, it would be up double digit amounts with recent stock market bearishness, but it has remained impotent. Of course, the stock market can be spooked from time to time and with that, do not be surprised at more volatility during the next few weeks.

 

Wed-Sep 9-Bullish unanimity was lost on today’s S&P400-(Chart) and S&P600-(Chart) bear signals along both the near-term and quick-term cycles. Those two indices’ post-coronavirus bull legs were not healthy ones like the other major indices. The reason for the bear signals was due to not eclipsing the near-term blue curve on today’s strong stock market bullishness and their vector pressures dropping into bearish domains. As stated yesterday, most of the other indices are strongly bullish with a high tolerance for bearish pestering. However, these two smaller cap indices were not that healthy.

 

Tue-Sep 8-As stated last Friday, the stock market bull is not strong, but still intact. That remains true following today’s pestering by the stock market bear. Contrarian VIX-(Chart) is being unresponsive to these bear attacks. It, so far, has been unable to cross above Red. Its passiveness is not consistent with strong bearish inclinations. Thirteen ETF’s remain as Red Bulls even though all have lost Blue Bull status. Red Bulls minimize bearish potential. The strength of the stock market bull since early April 2020 propelled bullish configurations to enjoy a very high tolerance for bearish pestering without triggering false alarms. Again, the stock market bull remains intact.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 9 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 15.7-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 16.1%; Annualized Performance: 53.3%.

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 3 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 4.4-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -8.4%

Near-term Performance Advantage: May 26-Stock Market Bull

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 1 of 12 

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 2 of 12

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Jun 30, 2020-Stock Market Bull

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 9 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 15.5-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 15.1%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 50.8%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 3 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 4.4-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -8.4%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 8 of 12

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Jun 30, 2020-Quick-term Advantage to Bull

                       

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 1 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 6 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction:  4 of 11                                          

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 1 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bear-effective Jun 26, 2020.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-09/11-Again, light volume on flat stock market behavior suggests reducing stock market interest as the political battle now underway will invoke irrational stock market volatility due to irrational political commentary.

 

Thu-09/10-Light volume on strong stock market bearishness is not supportive of fundamental bearishness.

 

Wed-09/09-Reduced volume on strong stock market bullishness suggest bull-bear battles are between short-term traders.

 

Tue-09/08-Mild volume on strong stock market bearishness is not sinister. This configuration suggests bearish pestering as opposed to a long-lasting bear.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and three sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 15.8% since their buy signals an average of 15.9-weeks ago, annualizing at 51.7%.

 

The NTI is avoiding eight-ETFs. They are down by an average of 12.2% since their sell signals an average of 6.2-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 4

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 6

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bear Sep 11, 2020

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 15.7% since their buy signals an average of 20.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 40.8%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding six-ETF. They are down by an average of 17.1% since their sell signals 8.6-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 14

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull Jun 17, 2020

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:    

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

The stock market is configuring with non-bullish attributes with force below pressure and with both falling toward bearish domains. The threat is minimal as all green curves are rising along both the short-term and mid-term cycles. However, do not be surprised at increased volatility over the next few weeks leading to the upcoming presidential election.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Indicant Conclusion

Force vector behavior is increasingly unfriendly to the stock market bull with a majority of the major indices in  a strong bearish direction. Force vectors remain below vector pressure. Until force moves above pressure, the stock market bull remains absent.  

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

09/13/2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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