Dec
25, 2022, Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report
Volume 12,
Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report
The Stock Market Bear
Remains Dominant
The short-term cycle is
configuring for a mild bullish spurt. However, the stock market bear
remains dominant along the more stable mid-term cycle. Technically, all
force vectors are moving in a bearish direction. All but one vector
pressure is also moving in a bearish direction. The exception is the DJU-(Chart).
Its vector pressure continues moving bullishly, but as you can see from
the chart, its force vector is now moving in a bearish direction. The DJU-(Chart)
remains the lone Mid-term Indicant bull. As long as it retains bull
status, the stock market bear will not endure a deep drop.
A majority of vector
pressures remain in bullish domains, but their bearish direction favors
continued stock market bearishness. That coupled with fundamentals suggests
there is little reason to expect stock market bullishness until force
vectors shift back into a bullish direction.
Mid-term Indicant Status of
the Major Indices
The major stock market indices can be
accessed by clicking this sentence.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the below terms.
Click this sentence to understand the
details on the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for
Explanation1): 0-Red Bull,
10-Non-Red Bulls
Comment: No Red Bulls is maximal non-bullishness.
Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for
Explanation2):
2-Blue Bulls, 8-Non-Blue Bulls
Comment: Only two Blue Bulls is not supportive of stock market
bullishness.
Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for
Explanation3):
0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow
Bears
Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 12.0%.
Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for
Explanation4):
1-Green Bears, 9-Non-Green Bears
Comment: The NASDAQ-(Chart)
is now a Green Bear, offering the stock market additional support.
Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5):
10-Red Higher than Green; 0-Green
Higher Than Red
Comment: The Red Curve is above Green by an average of 20.6% and thus not
standing in the way of a stock market bull. However, the stock market bear
continues dominating. With that, this metric is irrelevant at this point.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6):
6-bullish domains, 4-bearish
domains
Comment: This is reducing support for the stock market bull.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to
Vector Pressure7):
1-above pressure, 9-below
pressure
Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bull, but weakening
in the support.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8):
9-bullish domains, 1-bearish
domains
Comment: This highly desired attribute supports the stock market bull.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9):
0-bullishly directed,
10-bearishly directed
Comment: This is supportive of the stock market bear.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10):
1-bullishly directed,
9-bearishly directed
Comment: This is increasingly supportive of the stock market
bear.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the above terms.
Click this sentence to understand how to
read the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Configured
Condition of Major Indices: Mid-term attributes continue shifting in favor of the stock
market bull.
Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Week
Click this sentence for a
graphical summary of what follows of historical buy and sell signals and
stock market status.
The website has stock market history dating
back to 1900.
The Mid-term Indicant generated
no
buy signals and no
sell signals this weekend. Clicking
this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are
displayed.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 124 of the 315-stocks
and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are
up an average of 406.4% that annualizes to 88.9%. The Mid-term Indicant
has been signaling hold for these 124-stocks and funds for an average of
237.9-weeks. There have been 120 buy signals for stocks and funds so far,
this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the
Indicant, hold signals are 39.4% in the market.
The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 191-stocks and funds of
315-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an
average of 18.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of
79.6-weeks ago. There have been 263-sell signals for stocks and funds so
far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the
Indicant, avoid signals are 60.6% out of the market.
Comments about Mid-term
Indicant Buy and Sell Signals
Those who voted for what they got in 2020 may shift their
thinking. However, successful duping of the masses may not reduce
political power of prevailing incumbents. If that continues, corruption
and related injustice for the masses will expand and the stock market bull
will hibernate like the bear did from 1980 through 2020. That 40-year bull
can easily be replaced by a 40-year bear. However, as of this past week,
configurations are shifting in favor of fundamental corrections; that is,
eliminating the evil from incumbent politicians around the world and in
the U.S.
Clicking this sentence will
take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.
The Short-term Indicant
signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETFs enjoy a
buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term
Indicant summaries.
These short-term models attempt participation in significant
bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and
longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness.
The Daily Stock Market Report
reports status for the short-term model.
Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency,
Interest Rates
Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic
indicators.
Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years,
do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic
when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant.
Control freaks in political power have 100% potential to create economic
and social calamity with their desired result of a police state. That is
why they encourage asset destruction. That would give them absolute power.
That is never good for anyone but them.
Reported CPI remains unhealthy. The
PPI, as reported, is now unfavorably penetrating the stock market
bull and the economy. The annual inflation rate is reported at 6.9%. Oil
prices are up 1.2% from this time one year ago. Oil is up by $43.33/BBL
(+120.3%) since Biden’s so-called election. Oil is up 34.3% since Biden
was sworn in as President of the United States. Oil is down 13.8% since
Russian invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022. Biden, not Putin, caused
inflation and related higher fuel prices. Without Biden’s surging oil
prices, Putin could not have afforded to attack Ukraine and invoke misery
on millions. That is what politicians tend to do; invoke misery.
The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and
Effective Rate increased 50-basis points on weekending Dec 16, 2022
following a 75-basis points on weekending Nov 4, 2022.
Economic damage inflicted by the democratic party, germ warfare
from their China pals, and other overstepping U.S. communistic
politicians, and the self-proclaimed elites continue manifestation with a
hopeful designed pause in the nightmare of a Biden presidency with a
democratic congress. The destination to a decreased quality of life has
begun. However, a glimmer of hope rests with impeaching the president and
the vice-president. The stock market bull is apparently not aroused by
this Tuesday’s election.
The 3-Month T-Bill
shifted to Red Bull status on
weekending Jan 28, 2022, after about two and a half years of enduring
Yellow Bear status since Jul 19, 2019.
The T-Bill has risen a
significant amount the past several weeks to the delight of the stock
market bear. That behavior is now more visible on the chart as interest
rates continue escaping the gravity of zero in a race to the clouds of
stupidity. The prevailing rates are now well above pre-Covid prior peak in
June 2019 and about 80% of the way to the pre 2008 peak cycle.
The
Euro dropped to Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 22, 2021,
after losing Red Bull status on weekending Jul 31, 2021. It continues
residence in the domain of the Yellow Bear, but attempting to overcome
Yellow Bear status the past few weeks. The 2024-mean forecast is at $1.15
with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.94 to $0.98.
The
Canadian dollar
moved above Red (weakening) during the week of July 11, 2022, after
climbing above Yellow (weakening) nearly one year ago on July 17, 2021.
Its 2024-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting
much weaker values ranging from $1.68CA to $1.72CA.
The
Japanese Yen
remains above Red since Apr 2, 2021, but falling (strengthening) the past
several weeks. Its narrow min-max points from 2017 through mid-2021
remains impressive with that tightness continuing through September 2021,
when some additional weakening occurred. It continues to be escaping that
tight trading range from 2017 through mid-2021. It weakened severely the
week of Apr 4, 2022. It, like most currencies, was stable during Trump’s
era and now American made products are less competitive during the Biden
era, as all major foreign currencies are weakening much to the delight of
those foreign governments. Its statistical mean forecast is at
120-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting
a range of 146-151-Yen/U.S. dollar.
The
British Pound fell to Yellow Bear status as of Mar 11, 2022. Its statistical
mean forecast is at $1.28 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting
around $1.00-$1.04 by Dec 2024. The last bearish cycle was deeper than the
prior one suggesting a trend reversal favoring its bearishness.
The
Bitcoin fell to Yellow Bear status on week ending May 20, 2022 for the
first time since early 2020. After that bearishness, it continued holding
at around $20,000 but now settling around the $16,000 range.
Gold endured Yellow Bear
status on weekending July 8, 2022.
That is contrarian behavior
to its normal increase during inflationary periods. The Dec 2024-mean
forecast is $1,800/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are
projecting a Dec 2024 value approximating $1,289-$1,500/oz. You can keep
up with an approximation of this on the
Indicant Daily Stock
Market Report
by tracking
ETF#11-GLD.
Oil lost Red Bull status on
weekending Aug 11, 2022 after regaining Red Bull status on weekending Dec
31, 2020. It fell
into Yellow Bear status on weekending Dec 11, 2022, but against a bullish
trend.
The
CRB Bridge Futures
lost Red Bull status on weekending Sep 22, 2022 after regaining that lofty
status on Dec 31, 2020, and after abandoning Yellow Bear status on the
week of August 3, 2020. That correlated well with a dumb voting populace
and vote cheaters supporting the communistic takeover attempt of the U.S.
It is now aggressively contributing to inflation. Also, it strengthened
during the week of the U.S. election. It is about to increase again, as
the election is over and the incumbents no longer needing votes.
Mortgage rates regained Red
Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021, after falling into Yellow Bear
status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.
As of weekending Dec 3,
2021, they were weak Red Bulls, but now increasingly militant to future
home buyers. This no longer remains a “great” time to finance real estate.
However, it is still arguably a “good” time, as interest rates will be
triple prevailing levels before 2024 if prevailing politicians continue
doing what they are doing. Impeachment is no longer possible with the
recent elections. With that, you can expect continuing rising rates.
The
consumer price index
and
producer price index
are now computing with the combined absolute value of threatening interest
rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. That is not bullish and as you
have seen, it has been outright bearish.
Mid-term Indicant
Positions – Ten U.S. Indices
There were no new bull signals and no new bears this past week.
The DJU-() is the lone bull. It is up by of 5.9% since the Mid-term
Indicant signaled bull eight weeks ago, annualizing at 38.0%. The nine
bears are down by an average of 3.4% since their bear signals an average
of 5.1-weeks ago.
The Mid-term Indicant Dow
Jones Industrial Average
performance is at $70.0million. That beats buy and hold performance of
$5.0 million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The
MTI S&P500
is at $4.3 million. That beats buy and hold’s $2.3 million on a Jan 6,
1950, $10,000 investment. The
MTI-NASDAQ
is at $2.7 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.16 million on a Jan 29,
1971, $10,000 investment. The
MTI-Dow Transports is at $40.2-million. That is better than buy and hold
$971,201 million since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term
Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,394.0%, 183.5%, 230.6%, and
4,144.4%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.
There are two reasons why the
Dow Transport index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow
Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the
statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends
to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness
more than other indices.
The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change
during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same
magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the
cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.
Click here for a tour of the
Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
NASDAQ100 Stocks
Click here to see NASDAQ100
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
NASDAQ 100 Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks
Click here to see Dow 30
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Table of
Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks
Click here to see Dow
Utilities Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones
Utility Stocks Table.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Indicant Selected Stocks
Click here to see Indicant
Select Stock Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
Indicant Selected Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Mutual Funds
Click here to see Mutual Fund
Report Card history.
Click here for the Mid-term
Table of Mutual Funds.
The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for
MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short
on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.9% since then. Although this is
classically presidential post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant
was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2021 as the
stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those
four presidential post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical
lows in the 2008/9 recession and persisted since then and thus giving rise
to equity attractiveness to investors. Although interest rates have risen
in 2022, they remain at levels below that in the 1990’s.
Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds
Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good
way to mix your investments.
Long Term Indicant
Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average
The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in
November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five
bull/bear cycles since 1920.
The Dow is up 1047.1%, annualized at 33.5% since the Long-term Indicant
signaled bull 1,625-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on
the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable
interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull
signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with
today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up
triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when
considering long-term planning.
Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great
bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009
recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.
The next section is the last
daily stock market report for this past
week.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Archives
{Repeated here are from
the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week.
Click this link to see all the daily
reports from the last 12-months.
Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of
the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the
end of each week}.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Summary
Dec 23-The
short-term cycle remains bearish.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Details
Click this sentence to see table leading to
the charts.
Index Near-term Report Card
Summary
The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Number of Near-term Bulls: 2 of 12
Duration of Near-term Bulls: 3.5-wks-avg.
Near-term Bull Performance: -1.3%; Annualized Performance: -1.3%
Number of Near-term Bears: 10 of 12
Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 2.0-wks. avg.
Near-term Bears Average Performance: -2.2%
Near-term Performance Advantage: Dec 9, 2022-Stock
Market Bear
Near-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 1 of 11
Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 6 of 11
Near-term Performance Advantage: Dec 9, 2022-Stock
Market Bear
Index Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Number of Quick-term Bulls: 21 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 3.5-wks.
Quick-term Bull Performance: -1.3%; Quick-term Annualized Performance:
-1.3%.
Number of Quick-term Bears: 10 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 2.0-weeks-avg.
Quick-term Bear Performance: -2.2%
Quick-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12
Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 5 of 12
Quick-term Configured
Advantage: Dec 9, 2022-Stock
Market Bear
Short-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 5 of 11
Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 0 of 11
Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 0 of 11
Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 11 of 11
Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 0 of 11
Short-term Advantage:
Short-term Advantage: Dec 9, 2022-Stock Market Bear
Indicant Volume Indicators
Dec 23-There is no change from last week. Volume remains in the domain of
high interest with mixed stock market behavior but with increasing bias in
favor of the stock market bear.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and
Charts
ETF Near-term Report Card
Summary
There were no buy signals and no
sell signals along the
near-term cycle.
The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for six-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 0.8% annualizing at 9.1% since their buy signals an average of
4.7-weeks ago.
The Near-term Indicant is avoiding 26-ETF’s.
They are down by an average of 2.7% since their sell signals an average of
4.4-weeks ago.
Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 4
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 11
Near-term Advantage: Dec 9,
2022-Stock Market Bear
ETF Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.
The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for five ETF’s. They are up by
an average of 3.1% annualizing at 37.1% since their buy signals an average
of 4.4-weeks ago.
The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 27-ETF’s. They are down by an average
of 3.7% since their sell signals 4.6-weeks ago.
Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 4
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 14
Quick-term Advantage: Dec 9,
2022-Stock Market Bear
Reverse Tangential
Projections
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The
values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in
mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term,
and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each
chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell
signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the NASDAQ Composite Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the S&P500 Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Understanding Content on the Short-term
Indicant Charts
Indicant Conclusion
Configurations are increasingly supportive of the stock market bear.
Fundamentally, there is little reason to expect continuing bullishness.
Hyperlinks
To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts,
statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log
in. It is on the top of every page on the website, so you can always find
your way back.
Stop Loss Management
This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely
changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or
loosened.
The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for
holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this
includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest.
Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green
curve values, depending on your personal preferences.
For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and
quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow
price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The
idea is to minimize losses.
Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near
those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders
will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves
and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly
immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired
liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be
well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That
perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is
the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a
combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long
after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow
curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio
values.
For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the
tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to
average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve
is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green
is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its
value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop
losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow
passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow
price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are
supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece
of a great company or fund.
If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues
signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the
Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is
better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In
other words, other opportunities will emerge.
Click this sentence to keep up with the
Short-term Indicant.
Click this sentence to maintain stock
market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes
can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that
continue to enjoy hold signals.
Happy Investing,
www.indicant.net
12/25/2022
