The Indicant Stock Market Report

July 7, 2019 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 07, Issue 01 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Mid-term Bullish Unanimity Regained

The S&P600-(Chart) enjoyed a new bull this past weekend, despite its troubling configuration. Since it fell below green with bearish force several weeks ago, it rejected that bearishness with a solid bullish response. Its vector pressure crossed into bullish domains and thus the only reason for its new bull signal.

With that, bullish unanimity is now being enjoyed along all three cycles; Mid-term Indicant-(Chart), Quick-term and Near-term Indicant. Both of the later are identified on the Short-term Indicant table-(Chart). Bullish unanimity is highly desired by the stock market bull. It was enjoyed for the most part of 2013’s sequestration and again in 2017, following Trump’s election.

The only problems are the mid-term non-Blue Bulls along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. The two non-Blue Bulls are the DJT-(Chart) and the S&P600-(Chart). Both indexes’ vector pressures remain in bearish domains, but nearing bullish domains. The stock market bull does not want to see force vector for either of these indices to start moving in a bearish direction over the next week or two.

Neither of these indices are Blue Bulls, adding yet another concern. Normally, new bull signals require Blue Bull status but bullish vector pressure can trump that deficiency when the other major indices are strongly bullish, which the current configuration. That is the only reason the DJT and S&P600 are now enjoying bull signals. If force shifts back into bearish direction, they will endure new bear signals. The S&P600-companies does not have the same fascistic relationship with D.C., as the larger caps. It is the most volatile index among the ten major ones.

The stock market bull pays attention to election polls, but it is a bit too early for it to adjust to the communistic threat by the democratic party. Most of you remember, most polls identified Hillary Clinton as being the victor ahead of the Nov 2016 election against Trump. Most of you recall, the stock market bull allowed the stock market bear to dominate in late 2016 based, in part, on those errant polls. Right now, most of the polls suggests Biden could defeat Trump. Biden is most likely not a communist even though he acquiesces to their rhetoric from time to time for the applause and the related votes. Keep in mind, politicians always 100% of the time tell the audience they are addressing what they want to hear. One would gain more substance by listening to the wind whistle through the leaves than listening to the politician. Biden is a plagiarist and a liar, like most politicians. Despite that, the stock market bull will most likely not fear Biden.

However, it will fear all of the other democratic (communistic) candidates if the polls start suggesting a Trump defeat and a congressional democratic (communists) majority. Even with that scenario, the stock market’s behavior will not reflect political influence until about a year from now. With that, the stock market is bullish right now that is consistent with the presidential pre-election year. However, force vector behavior with bearish vector pressure on the non-Blue Bulls will be the primary attribute determining stock market bias.

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

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Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation¹⁾: 8-Red Bulls, 2-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: Red Bull population increased from seven to eight this past week. They are above Red by an average of 6.5%. The stock market bear cannot completely dominate with Red Bull dominance.

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls- Click for Explanation²⁾: 8-Blue Bulls, -Non-Blue Bulls

Comment: Blue Bull population increased by one this past week, adding to stock market bullishness. As long as they are in majority, the stock market bear has near-zero chance of dominating. The eight major indices are above the blue bull by 2.7%.

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation³⁾: 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

Comment: Fortunately, none of the major indices are Yellow Bears. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 26.7% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance and the economy is not being threatened.

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation⁴⁾: 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

Comment: The absence of Green Bears reduces stock market bear potential. All ten major indices are above Green by an average of 10.7% percent, which is healthy for the stock market bull. The Mid-term Indicant signals bear when the major indices fall below green when not in Red Bull status and with a few other exceptions.

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position⁵⁾: 10-Reds Higher than Green; 0-Greens Higher Than Red

Comment: The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) have not enjoyed Green crossing above Red in the current bull cycle. If that remains absent, the stock market bear has a formidable enemy. Overall, Red is above Green by an average of 5.9%.

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position⁶⁾: 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

Comment: Bullishly positioned force vectors continue with unanimous support of the stock market bull.

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure⁷⁾: 10-above pressure, 0-below pressure

Comment: All ten major indices continue enjoying bullishly positioned force that is higher than pressure and thus allowing bullish pressure to increase.

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position⁸⁾: 8-bullish domains, 2-bearish domains

Comment: This very important attribute increased from one to eight the past two weeks, offering the stock market bull increasing support.

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction⁹⁾: 9-bullishly directed, 1-bearishly directed

Comment: The loss of one bullishly directed force vector this past week is of minor concern at this point.

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction¹⁰⁾: 10-bullishly directed, 0-bearishly directed

Comment: This unanimous support of the stock market bull is the primary attribute to monitor at this point since they remain very close to bearish domains.

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Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Bearishly positioned vector pressure remains as the primary threat to the stock market bull.

Thematic-Technical-Current Influence

All discerning configurations completed their devolution into extinction, except the one on the next paragraph. There is plenty of room for the stock market bull to dominate before the below threshold of resistance is challenged again.

Start Mar 2019-NYSE IVI, Indicant Volume Indicator- Status is unchanged: Several weeks ago, the Indicant referred to the upper right-hand corner of the NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator chart. There you will see a perfectly formed line touching the last three peak points of the NYSE. When the second peak occurred, the stock market responded bearishly, but rebounded to the third peak, which occurred on the same declining plane, as noted on the chart. Some pontificate that line is a point of resistance. You will know a new stock market bull with potential robustness will occur when it cross above that bearishly sloping line. So, the link in this sentence will be tracked until that point of resistance is violated with the NYSE moving above that decaying line.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.

NAS#35-SYMC-(Chart), Symnatech, was up 14.9% last week as the most bullish NASDAQ100 stock. It enjoyed a buy signal. This stock crossed above Yellow with supporting force, triggering that buy signal. It has a very mild, but steady bullish trend, but the cloud is most likely this stock’s biggest enemy. NAS#37-FOSL-(Chart), Fossil, was down 4.9% as the most bearish NASDAQ100 stock last week. It is also down 87.2% since the Indicant’s Feb 2015 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

ISTK#27-FCEL-(Chart), was up 353.5% last week as the most bullish stock in this group of stocks. Despite that profound bullishness, this stock is still down 99.7% since the Indicant’s Dec 2014 sell signal. We double and tripled checked for a reverse stock split, of which has occurred four times since 1999 for this stock. So, it appears this stock really did jump by a huge percentage, but still a penny stock. There is nothing published about any nuclear fusion successes, but who knows. Despite all of that, continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. ISTK#67-NBR-(Chart), was down 8.6% as the most bearish stock in this group. It is also down 74.0% since the Indicant’s May 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

DJIA#06-NKE-(Chart), was up 3.5% last week as the most bullish Dow30 stock. It is also up 119.3% since the Indicant’s Nov 2013 buy signal. Continue holding this solid Red Bull, despite their political confusion. DJIA#09-BA-(Chart), was the most bearish Dow30 stock last week, dropping 2.2%. Despite that bearishness, this stock is up 451.1% since the Indicant’s Oct 2011 buy signal. Continue holding this solid Red Bull.

DJU#14-CNP-(Chart), Center Point, was the most bullish Dow Utility stock last week, rising 2.8%. It is also up 45.2% since the Indicant’s Mar 2016 buy signal. This stock is a bit troubled with its Green Bear status, but not yet a Yellow Bear. Its force vector is rising and as long as that happens it will not endure a sell signal. DJU#07-PCG-(Chart), PC&E, was down 4.9% as the most bearish Dow Utility stock last week. It is also down 59.2% since the Indicant’s Dec 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

MF#57-FSTCX-(Chart), Fidelity Telecommunications, was the most bullish mutual fund, rising 3.0% last week. It is also up 3.2% since the Indicant’s Apr 19, 2019 buy signal. This fund has been bearish for three plus years, but again attempting to breakout. MF#22-USPIX-(Chart), Pro Funds Ultra Short of NASDAQ100, was down 4.7% last week, as the most bearish mutual fund. It is also down 99.1% since the Indicant’s Apr 2009 buy signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10^th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. Of course, the website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

The Mid-term Indicant generated 12-buy signals and no-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 244 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 223.3% that annualizes to 47.9%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 244-stocks and funds for an average of 242.6-weeks. There have been 128-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 65-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 35.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 114.1-weeks ago. There have been 48-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

One year ago, on Jul 6, 2018 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 242-stocks and funds of the 320-tracked for an average of 253.7-weeks. They were up by an average of 231.3% (annualized at 47.4%). There were 65-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 17.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 78.1-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were 12-buy signals and one sell signals on this weekend in 2018. There had been 48-buy signals and 65-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2018.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 254-stocks on Jul 7, 2017. They were up 186.9% since their buy signals an average of 221.2-weeks earlier, annualizing at 43.9%. There were 44-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 96.1-weeks earlier. There were 21buy signals and eight sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 46-buy signals and 29-sell signals through this weekend in 2017.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 265-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Jul 8, 2016. They were up by an average of 141.1%, annualizing at 38.2%, since their respective buy signals an average of 191.9-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 76-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 28.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 76.0-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There had been 99-year-to-date buy signals and 77-sell signals through this weekend in 2016.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 316-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Jul 3 2015. They were up by an average of 154.3%, annualizing at 37.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 212.8-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 49-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 19.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 74.9-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and nine sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There had been a total of 23-buy signals and 42-sell signals through this weekend in 2015.

There were 316-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 335-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Jul 4, 2014 since their buy signals an average of 163.6-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 125.9% (annualized at 40.0%). There were 19-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 24.7% from their respective sell signals an average of 76.4-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2014. There had been 20-buy signals and 19-sell signals through this weekend in 2014.

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

If the stock market bear has indeed hibernated, the relatively large numbers of avoided stocks and funds will provide more opportunities for buying since 2009, where nearly all stocks and funds were avoided early that year. Although there are not as many avoided stocks and funds being avoided as in early 2009, there are still plenty of opportunities. Force vectors started increasing two weeks ago, offering potential for new buy signals. There were 32-buy signals on weekending Jun 28, 2019 and 12-more this past week. There have been 128-buy signals this calendar year against 48-sell signals. These opportunities are now manifesting.

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 269.5% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 632.6% and the S&P500 is up 285.0% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 461.4% since October 9, 2002.

The NASDAQ was down by 15.8% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.

The NASDAQ was down 25.7% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.

The NASDAQ was up 24.6% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 2.0% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 4.9% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was down 2.3% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.

The NASDAQ was up 10.4% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. This week was extraordinarily bearish in that year, as the stock market bear had already been dominating since July of that year. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.

The NASDAQ was down by 15.3% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.

It was up 13.3% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was down 7.7% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.

It was up 6.8% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.

The NASDAQ was up 12.8% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.

It was up 15.2% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-t erm elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.

The NASDAQ was up 7.4% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.

The NASDAQ was up 5.4% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939. Trade war were maximal in 1939.

The NASDAQ was down 3.0% on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the “obvious” president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.

The NASDAQ was up 13.1% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up by 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness and especially so with rising interest rates.

The NASDAQ was up 11.4% on this weekend in the 2018-presidential mid-term election year. The Blue Wave was reported as coming most of that year. With that “communistic” threat, the stock market bull was absent most of the year with a bearish conclusion. The NASDAQ closed down by 3.9%, while the S&P500 was down 6.2% and the Dow down 5.6% for 2018.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 15.4% this year. The S&P500 is up 19.3% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 23.0% this year. The S&P600 is up 13.4% this year. The Dow Transports is up 14.3% and Dow Utilities is up 15.4% this year. The S&P400 is up 18.4% this year.

The Dow is up 90.1% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 185.5% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is up 91.1% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.

All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 48.8%.

The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 61.7%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is above that peak by 66.7%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 58.6%. Those paltry gains have not kept up with inflation. With that consideration they are still down since their 2000-peaks.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

The Dow is up 311.2% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 543.8% and the S&P500 is up 342.8% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 427.4% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases.

The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish, but democrats are about to take over the U.S. House of Representatives and the last time that happened in 2007 the stock market peaked ahead of its 2008-bearish behavior.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition. Recent promotions of communism, if successful, will result in zero for all capital stocks.

Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics will be inflationary. Despite that eventuality, inflation remains tame for the time being. The annual inflation rate is being reported at only 1.8% to date this year. Oil prices are down 25.8% from this time a year ago, which has a very high correlation to inflation. There is more about oil later.

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased another 25-basis point on week-ending Dec 21, 2018. That followed similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018 and Sep 30, 2018. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election, although pretty much to the original 2008-2009 Bernanke plans. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections. The Fed remains sensitive to political pressure, favoring the stock market bull. Inflation is subsiding and interest rates are starting to drop.

The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull, despite jumping from 2.08% to 2.17% last week. Decreasing unemployment is perceived as inflationary and thus the reason for increasing market based interest rates.

Oil prices have been stable to declining and thus facilitating, somewhat, Federal Reserve’s passivity. Middle Eastern tensions remain threatening to that stability.

The Euro fell into Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jun 15, 2018 and continues sticking to bearish Yellow with a bearish drift. Gluing to Yellow for such a long period suggests stability, which should be viewed as favorable for the Euro, despite its continuing erosion in value. The prevailing bearish trend started after the enjoyment of shifting bullishly for the first time in nine years in early March 2018 like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of its long-term bearish trend. Again, that is occurring with both Red and Yellow in a bearish slope. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.79 to $0.81.

The Canadian dollar dipped to just above Yellow (strengthening). Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.70CA to $1.78CA.

The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast remains at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 140-150-Yen/U.S. dollar. Its flatness the past three years is unusual. That helps internationally stabilization which is always welcome by the stock market bull.

British Pound’s 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.29 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $1.00-$1.02 by Dec 31, 2020. Since its mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it has drifted, bearishly.

As stated for several weeks, international currencies, relative to the U.S. dollar are relatively stable, despite the tariff threats being bantered around.

The Bitcoin returned to Red Bull status on weekend May 17, 2019 for the first time since early 2018. It did not express discomfort in doing so by maintaining its prevailing Red Bull position.

Gold climbed sharply above Red on weekending Jun 21, 2019 from Iranian conflicts. It has been increasing bullishness the past few weeks, despite a mild drop last week with the rise in interest rates. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,300/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $887-$904/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

Oil remains in the zone of neutrality (between Red and Yellow). It has been bullish the past two weeks with Iranian aggressions. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $55/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Supply capacity, exceeding demand, is the prevailing price depressant.

The CRB Bridge Futures escaped Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 13, 2019 after falling into Yellow Bear status on Nov 23, 2018. The 2020-mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020. Its current configuration offers no support for inflation. It has been uncharacteristically flat for several years.

Mortgage rates fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019. They remain as Yellow Bears. This is supportive of bullish behavior for construction, home buyers, and the overall economy.

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. This fund has remained flat to mildly bearish since then, enduring a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018 after falling to Yellow Bear status. It is down 16.5% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also enjoyed a buy signal on Jun 14, 2019 after being avoided for exactly one year. It is up 8.0% since the Jun 14, 2019 buy signal, annualizing at 137.3%.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, endured a sell signal on May 24, 2019. It is up 2.6% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, endured a sell signal on Oct 19, 2018. It is down 36.7% since then.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 10.5% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 10.0% since that sell signal.

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Jun 2, 2019. It is down 0.8% since then.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Dec 6, 2018. It is up 12.8% since then, annualizing at 21.8%.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There was one new bull signal and no new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for nine of the ten major indices. They are up an average of 7.8% since their respective bull signals an average of 18.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 21.9%. The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bear for one of the ten major indices.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $71.044-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $4.035-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.674-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.761-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.589-million. That beats buy and hold’s $816,179 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-Dow Transports is at $35.827-million. That is better than buy and hold $750.700 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,660.4%, 108.6%, 217.2%, and 4,672.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a week or two for the statistics to settle.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.1% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of course, if that happens, you would not enjoy the opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 830.0% (annualized at 29.9%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,444-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Jul 5-Despite Iranian tensions, the democratic party, and trade-tariff threats, the stock market bull was supportive of last week’s high number of buy signals. Bullish unanimity is being enjoyed along all the major cycles. Again, do not be surprised at volatile expressions from time to time, while also recognizing an increasing bullish bias.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

Number of Near-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 3.9-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 2.5%; Annualized Performance: 33.9%

Number of Near-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 4.4-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -21.7%

Near-term Performance Advantage: Jun 21, 2919-Stock Market Bull

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 11 of 12

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 1 of 12

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Jun 21, 2019-Stock Market Bull

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 15.8-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 8.3%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 27.2%

Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 3.0-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -12.9%

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 9 of 12

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1 of 12

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Jun 28, 2019-Stock Market Bull

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 9 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 4 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull-effective Jun 7, 2019

Indicant Volume Indicators

Despite the holiday, the stock market enjoyed enough volume for both Indicant Volume Indicators to start increasing toward the domain of high interest. That movement, coupled with stock market bullishness, is supportive of the stock market bull.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 4.1% since their buy signals an average of 6.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 33.8%.

The NTI is avoiding two ETFs. They are down by an average of 13.6% since their sell signals an average of 4.0-weeks ago.

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 2

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 26

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bull Jun 7, 2019

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 29-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 7.6% since their buy signals an average of 13.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 29.3%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding two ETFs. They are down by an average of 13.6% since their sell signals an average of 4.0-weeks ago.

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 23

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull Jun 7, 2019

Reverse Tangential Projections

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.