The Indicant Stock Market Report

May 12, 2019 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 05, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

Declining Force, Pressure and Congressional Tax Documents

Imagine how well everyone one earth would live if the primary job of politicians was to keep potholes filled and other infrastructure problem, such as non-collapsing bridges. Society’s advancement will continue to be slow until politicians have a simple set of metrics to obtain, as opposed to meddling into goofy things, such as a state-owned banks or global warming, now referred to as climate change.

For example, the number of potholes at the beginning of a politician’s term and the number at the end of their term. If the number of potholes is not down by 25% by the end of the first year, he would have to run for office again under the embarrassment of failing to meet required metrics for job retention. Every Senator and Representative of each state that contributed to that failure would also have to run again, as opposed to their current enjoyment of six-years and two-years, respectfully, of a corrupt and cushy lifestyle.

Politicians are wanting to tinker with the U.S. Constitution. The above are some ideas to start tinkering in a way that limits political behavior to doing real public service, as opposed to getting rich from their expertise of doing so as an economic leech.

Businesspeople around the world want to trade to each other’s strengths and readied supply of raw and fabricated materials. However, third party interference, always by politicians, abruptly terminates the natural flow of economic commerce. This is not being critical of Trump, as it is being critical of the political institutions in all countries. Generally, the dumb and dumber get into politics. It is amazing that the world’s populace allows their politicians to have excessive economic influence. That influence leads to corruption and 100% of the time begins the cycle of societal devolution.

Third-party interference should be against law. Also, government employees at the federal and state level should never exceed 0.01% of the populace they serve. Allowing more than that results in the populace serving the Deep State.

If the executive and legislative branches of government are equal, then congress should have access to Trump’s tax documents, but only if Trump can read aloud on one of this stump speeches, Nancy Pelosi, Maxine Waters, Bernie Sanders, etc. tax documents. All public servants should not have any privacy rights.

Lowly public servants, such as Pelosi, Waters, Sanders, and others, got rich being public servants. The only people on earth who should get rich are those that actually generate real economic wealth. That occurs only in manufacturing, distribution, and extraction. The only non-wealth-generation people that should be allowed to accumulate wealth are doctors and teachers of science and math. Everything else is pure economic overhead. Even the COE’s of Facebook, Google, Twitter, and other social media companies, should be allowed a salary of only $48,000 per year because such companies do not generate any economic wealth. On the contrary, social media is distractive to productive thought. If it would facilitate productive thought, then these social media CEO’s could get $64,000 per year salary. All capital gains from social media stock would go to the treasuries of each of the 50-states

Socialistically minded politicians enjoy their negative orations of highly paid CEO’s. Curtailing the salaries of social media executives should be arousing to them. The problem is that social media executives are supportive of the likes of Bernie Sanders and they are too stupid to understand that Bernie is very capable of capping salaries before taking you wealth for Bernie’s programs. The millions who would vote for Sanders are too stupid to understand that, but then again, most of them do not have any assets and thus the reason for Bernie appealing to them.

This third-party interference between business minded people around the world caused force and pressure to start another cycle to the south. That is no longer non-bullish. It is now with a bearish intention, but still somewhat minor as these two bearishly directed attributes are from within bullish domains with no Green Bears along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

China is a communistic country. As long as they remain as such, it is impossible for their economy to grow with only internal development. They need U.S. trade, while the U.S. can do without China. The downside is the inflationary aspects of the tariffs.

Fundamentally, companies such as Intel, who has production in China took a hit in last week’s stock market bearishness. Their gross margins will shrink and severely so. The stock market bear will find that arousing, as corporate profits will shrink for those companies in China. With that, the stock market is starting to shift from last week’s non-bullish theme to a more direct bearish theme.

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

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Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation¹⁾: 8-Red Bulls, 2-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: The small caps index, S&P600-(Chart), only held Red Bull status one week. Last week’s mounting trade tensions resulted in the loss of that Red Bull and also punished the DJT-(Chart) by brandishing it from the highly desired Red Bull status. The eight Red Bulls are above Red by an average of 4.2%.

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls- Click for Explanation²⁾: 8-Blue Bulls, 2-Non-Blue Bulls

Comment: Highly desired Blue Bull unanimity only last one week with the same two indices losing Blue Bull status. The eight Blue Bulls are above blue by an average of 1.7%.

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation³⁾: 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

Comment: Fortunately, none of the major indices are Yellow Bears. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 25.2% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance and the economy is not being threatened.

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation⁴⁾: 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

Comment: The absence of Green Bears reduces stock market bear potential. All ten major indices are above Green by an average of 12.2% percent, which is healthy for the stock market bull.

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position⁵⁾: 10-Reds Higher than Green; 0-Greens Higher Than Red

Comment: The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) have not enjoyed Green crossing above Red in the current bull cycle. As long as that remains absent, the stock market bear has a formidable enemy. Overall, Red is above Green by an average of 9.1%.

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position⁶⁾: 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

Comment: All ten force vectors are in bullish domains in support of the stock market bull.

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure⁷⁾: 0-above pressure, 10-below pressure

Comment: Weak force is always disturbing, but most of it in bullish domains and thus remaining with minimal concern.

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position⁸⁾: 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

Comment: This highly desired bullish attribute remains in full support of the stock market bull.

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction⁹⁾: 0-bullishly directed, 10-bearishly directed

Comment: The majority of force vectors are no longer in support of the stock market bull. Again, most of this unfavorable attribute is occurring in bullish domains and thus not yet threatening to the stock market bull.

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction¹⁰⁾: 1-bullish, 10-bearish

Comment: This attribute is now threatening to the stock market bull.

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Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Red Bulls and Blue Bulls are strongly configuring in favor of the stock market bull, but do not be surprised at a lackluster stock market bull with force drifting in a bearish direction and below pressure.

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.

NAS#80-HSIC-(Chart), Henry Schein, was up 9.0% as last week’s most bullish NASDAQ100 stock. It is also up 14.7% since the Indicant’s Mar 1, 2019 sell signal. Although this stock has the support of a very nice long-term bullish trend, it is battling the Yellow Bear status and its pressure remains in bearish domains. Do not buy until you see a buy signal. NAS#45-MYL-(Chart), Mylan, was down 20.8% as the most bearish NASDAQ100 stock last week. It is also down 37.2% since the Indicant’s Oct 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear as it has been in a steady bearish trend since early 2015.

ISTK#47-ENZ-(Chart), Enzo Biotech, was up 4.5% last week, as the biggest gainer in this group of stocks. Despite that, it is down 33.3% since the Indicant’s Jun 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear as it is in its three year of a bearish trend. ISTK#27-FCEL-(Chart), Fuel Cell Energy, was down 42.0% after a 1:12-reverse stock split. It is also down 99.3% since the Indicant’s Dec 2014 sell signal. This dog is hungry for cash with a profoundly large reverse stock split with a 20-year bearish trend and a steep one at that.

DJIA#13-CVX-(Chart), Chevron, was up 4.1% last week, as the most bullish Dow30 stock. It is flat since the Indicant’s Mar 1, 2019 buy signal. You will not get really rich along a 20-year investment cycle by holding this stock. However, you will do fine with a 50-year holding cycle, providing the orations of AOC and Bernie Sanders fall on deaf ears. DJIA#26-INTC-(Chart), Intel, was down 10.7% as the most bearish Dow30 stock last week. However, it is up 118.3% since the Indicant’s Jan 2013 buy signal. Despite this stock’s bearishness, continue holding. Its gross margins will be thinner with the Chinese tariffs, but it management is still talented enough to figure out a way to get it back to where it needs to be.

DJU#03-NI-(Chart), NiSource, was up 0.8% last week as the most bullish Dow Utility stock. It is also up 318.6% since the Indicant’s Sep 2010 buy signal. Continue holding this solid Red Bull. It does not care about Chinese problems. DJU#07-PCG-(Chart), PG&E, was down 13.4% as the most bearish Dow Utility stock last week. It is also down 65.3% since the Indicant’s Dec 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

MF#22-USPIX-(Chart), Pro Funds NASDAQ100 Ultra Short, was up 6.8% last week as the most bullish mutual fund. However, ignore that, as it is down 99.0% since the Indicant’s Apr 2009 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear, but if Bernie Sanders gains momentum, it will offer you a good opportunity to gain a lot, then hurry and sale it, the vacate the US with the gold bars and ordnance to some small island. Of course, Bernie will come after you, as no one, other than the politburo, should enjoy life. MF#38-FSELX-(Chart), Fidelity Electric, was down 6.4% last week, as the most bearish mutual fund. It is also down 2.3% since the Indicant’s Apr 12, 2019 buy signal. Although not yet a Red Bull, it is with bullish force and pressure. Do not sell until you see a sell signal.

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10^th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. Of course, the website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

The Mid-term Indicant generated no-buy signals and four-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 239 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 215.0% that annualizes to 47.2%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 239-stocks and funds for an average of 237.1-weeks. There have been 80-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 78-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 34.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 109.9-weeks ago. There have been 17-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

One year ago, on May 11, 2018 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 240-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 259.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 228.7% (annualized at 45.9%). There were 71-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 15.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 87.9-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were seven buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2018. There had been 31-buy signals and 55-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2018.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 256-stocks on Mar 12, 2017. They were up 182.5% since their buy signals an average of 209.3-weeks earlier, annualizing at 45.3%. There were 44-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 107.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 22-buy signals and 15-sell signals through this weekend in 2017.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 210-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on May13, 2016. They were up by an average of 148.1%, annualizing at 36.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 209.9-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 127-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 18.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 60.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2016. There had been 32-year-to-date buy signals and 68-sell signals through this weekend in 2016.

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 294-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on May 8, 2015. They were up by an average of 146.8%, annualizing at 39.0%, since their respective buy signals an average of 195.7-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 44-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 12.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 71.2-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There had been a total of 18-buy signals and 24-sell signals through this weekend in 2015.

There were 312-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on May 9, 2014 since their buy signals an average of 157.4-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 111.1% (annualized at 36.7%). There were 25-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 22.0% from their respective sell signals an average of 65.9-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2014. There had been 12-buy signals and 17-sell signals through this weekend in 2014.

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

If the stock market bear has indeed hibernated, the relatively large numbers of avoided stocks and funds will provide more opportunities for buying since 2009, where nearly all stocks and funds were avoided early that year. Although there are not as many avoided stocks and funds being avoided as in early 2009, there are still plenty of opportunities. Force vectors are dipping bearishly as of the past several weeks. Buy signals do not occur with that, but there have been 52-buy signals the past four weeks. Force vectors are no longer configuring in favor of the stock market bull, while not yet configuring in favor of the stock market bear.

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 256.0% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 610.6% and the S&P500 is up 271.0% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 464.8% since October 9, 2002.

The NASDAQ was down by 13.8% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.

The NASDAQ was down 17.9% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.

The NASDAQ was up 13.8% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 5.4% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

It was down 9.7% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 5.2% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.

The NASDAQ was up 4.9% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. This week was extraordinarily bearish in that year, as the stock market bear had already been dominating since July of that year. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.

The NASDAQ was down by 7.8% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.

It was up 10.3% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

The NASDAQ was up 4.7% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.

It was up 8.3% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.

The NASDAQ was up 12.6% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.

It was up 13.8% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-t erm elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.

The NASDAQ was down 2.5% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.

The NASDAQ was up 5.6% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.

The NASDAQ was down 3.9% on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the “obvious” president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.

The NASDAQ was up 13.9% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up by 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness and especially so with rising interest rates.

The NASDAQ was up 7.3% on this weekend in the 2018-presidential mid-term election year. The Blue Wave was reported as coming most of that year. With that “communistic” threat, the stock market bull was absent most of the year with a bearish conclusion. The NASDAQ closed down by 3.9%, while the S&P500 was down 6.2% and the Dow down 5.6% for 2018.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 11.2% this year. The S&P500 is up 14.9% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 19.3% this year. The S&P600 is up 14.1% this year. The Dow Transports is up 19.4% and Dow Utilities is up 9.8% this year. The S&P400 is up 18.7% this year.

The Dow is up 87.1% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 185.5% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is up 88.2% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.

All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 41.7%.

The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 56.8%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is above that peak by 61.3%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 53.1%. Those paltry gains have not kept up with inflation. With that consideration they are still down since their 2000-peaks.

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

The Dow is up 296.2% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 524.0% and the S&P500 is up 325.9% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 430.4% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases.

The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish, but democrats are about to take over the U.S. House of Representatives and the last time that happened in 2007 the stock market peaked ahead of its 2008-bearish behavior.

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition. Recent promotions of communism, if successful, will result in zero for all capital stocks.

Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics will be inflationary. Despite that eventuality, inflation remains tame for the time being. Recently reported CPI was deflationary, due in part, to falling oil prices. As of Jan 3, 2019, House Democrats will stifle the Trump agenda, but the economic elements may not be. The markets anticipated the Pelosi promotion with the VIX bull signal in late Oct 2018. The VIX is no longer enduring a bear signal due to Chinese trade tensions with Trump.

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased another 25-basis point on week-ending Dec 21, 2018. That followed similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018 and Sep 30, 2018. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election, although pretty much to the original 2008-2009 Bernanke plans. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections. The Fed remains sensitive to political pressure, favoring the stock market bull. The annual inflation rate is being reported at only 1.5% to date this year. Oil prices are down 13.7% from this time a year ago, which has a very high correlation to inflation. There is more about oil later.

The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull, holding at 2.37%. It’s gallop to the north remains bit slower than the policy hikes. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. If the Fed returns to aggressive rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be unfriendly to the stock market bull. The opposite of all that remains in effect, favoring the stock market bull.

Fortunately, oil prices remain stable and thus facilitating the Federal Reserve’s passivity.

The Euro fell into Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jun 15, 2018 and continues sticking to bearish Yellow with a bearish drift. The prevailing bearish trend started after the enjoyment of shifting bullishly for the first time in nine years in early March 2018 like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of its long-term bearish trend. Again, that is occurring with both Red and Yellow in a bearish slope. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.75 to $0.78.

The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned to the neutral zone in late October 2017, while moving above (weakening) Red again on Dec 6, 2018 and recently displaying discomfort above Red-(weakening). Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.70CA to $1.80CA.

The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast remains at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 140-152-Yen/U.S. dollar. It shifted from the zone of neutrality to strengthening in late Feb 2018 and continues residence there with some recent steadying with minimal vacillations around Red (weakening). It remains in a tight trading zone, while weakening just above Red on weekending Sep 30, 2018 and again on Dec 6, 2018. It strengthens when falling and it fell to Yellow on weekending Jan 25, 2019, but mildly shifting back toward Red (weakening). Trade tensions remain influential on international exchanges. Despite that, international currencies are remaining stable with the yen very stable since early 2016.

British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency at that time. It lost Red Bull status on week-ending May 11, 2018 by falling into the zone of neutrality and then returning to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 7, 2018. It continues to resist deepening its Yellow Bear status. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.29 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.97-$1.00 by Dec 31, 2020. It falling to Yellow Bear status and not yet recovering suggests its long-term bearish cycle will not be overcome on the short-term horizon. Recent British BREXIT battles have not yet destabilized the pound.

The Bitcoin toppled $16,000 on most exchanges in late 2017 in skyrocketing fashion. It has weakened since then. It lost Red Bull status in late Mar/early Apr 2018 and finally fell into Yellow Bear status on Dec 7, 2018 at below $4,000. It has been stable for the past several months but with a steady bearish drift, while its stability is refreshing to those who believe in it. It escaped Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 18, 2019 and has generally bullish since then, but not yet shifting from its prevailing bearish trend.

Gold climbed out of Yellow Bear status on weekending Dec 21, 2018 on strong bearishness in the equity markets and now vacillating around Red Bull status. That suggested increased fear on both the political and inflationary fronts with Bernie Sanders-like comments from communistic democrats that everything is free. Gold reflects a fear of too many stupid people buying into that lunacy. At some point, rising rates will strengthen the dollar, influencing gold’s bearishness. That remains as the current theme but being challenged a bit with potential weakening of the U.S. dollar along with flattening interest rates. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,293/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $850-$895/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

Oil returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 201 7, but fell below Red on Oct 25, 2018 and quickly dropped to Yellow Bear status on weekending Nov 17, 2018. It continues attempting to escape Yellow Bear status and in fact did so on weekending Mar 5, 2019. It is becoming a bit more aggressive in a renewed attempt to cross above Red, but not yet done so. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $55/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. As stated for several months, Saudi Royalty is most likely targeting $90/BBL.

The CRB Bridge Futures escaped Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 13, 2019 after falling into Yellow Bear status on Nov 23, 2018. The 2020-mean forecast is at $190, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020. Its current configuration offers no support for inflation.

Mortgage rates fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019. This should stimulate more housing construction and home turnover. That is bullish for the economy. However, they increased on weekending Apr 19, 2019 and holding steady since then, but remaining as Yellow Bears and in somewhat of a depressed state that is favorable for economic robustness.

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. This fund has remained flat to mildly bearish since then, enduring a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018 after falling to Yellow Bear status. It is down 21.4% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also endured a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 7.0% since that sell signal.

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Apr 19, 2019, but down 4.8% since then.

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, endured a sell signal on Oct 19, 2018. It is down 32.6% since then.

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 6.3% since that sell signal.

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 6.7% since that sell signal.

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on May 3, 2019. It is down 0.3% since then.

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Dec 6, 2018. It is up 3.6% since then, annualizing at 8.4%.

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all ten major indices. They are up an average of 5.6% since their respective bull signals an average of 15.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 18.5%.

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $68.458 million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.888 million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.540-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.696 million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.436-million. That beats buy and hold’s $791,694 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment. The MTI-Dow Transports is at $38.542-million. That is better than buy and hold $759,089 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,660.4%, 108.6%, 216.6%, and 5,111.2%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a week or two for the statistics to settle.

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.0% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of course, if that happens, you would not enjoy the opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you.

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

The Dow is up 796.2% (annualized at 28.8%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,436-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-May 10-Despite a late day rally by the stock market bull, the stock market bear remains threatening enough to endure four new near-term bear signals. Although not a major threat, it is enough to highlight increasing potential for a troubling stock market bull.

Tue-May 7-Trade war tensions stimulated the stock market bear. Contrarian VIX-(Chart) enjoyed a new bull signal, while its related ETN, VXX-( Chart) has not yet enjoyed a buy signal due to not cross above Blue. ETF#14-TLT-( Chart) also enjoyed a new buy signal, as it became both a Blue and Red Bull. Trump and China delegates will be meeting this Thursday. If that meeting (or rumors) of a positive outcome occur, the stock market bull will rebound. All of that is consistent with configured non-bullishness. Despite all of that, some non-contrarian ETF’s endured sell signals due to their absence of Red Bull protection and falling below the near-term green curve with bearish force and pressure. Part of non-bullishness is volatility.

Please review the below sections for more insight.

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and four new bears.

Number of Near-term Bulls: 8 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 13.3-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 7.3%; Annualized Performance: 28.7%

Number of Near-term Bears: 0 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: N/A-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: N/A

Near-term Performance Advantage: Jan 11, 2019-Stock Market Bull, replacing Oct 5, 2018-Stock Market Bear

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 1 of 12.

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 3 of 12

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: May 7, 2019-Stock Market Bear (Change from Jan 4, 2019-Stock Market Bull.

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 12 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 12.7-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 4.2%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 17.2%

Number of Quick-term Bears: 0 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: N/A-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: N/A

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 7 of 12

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0 of 12

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Shifted from Nov 12, 2018-Quick-term Stock Market Bear to Feb 1, 2019 neutral configuration due to absence of any Red Bulls. On Feb 15, 2019-All Major Indices are Red Bulls favoring the Stock Market Bull. After that, some Red Bulls expired, but a majority have been Red Bulls since then, thus favoring the stock market bull.

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 4 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 1 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 0 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull-effective Jan 11, 2019, replacing Nov 15, 2018-Stock Market Bear support.

Indicant Volume Indicators

Mon-May 6-Recent average volume on mild stock market bearishness continues suggesting stock market comfort zones remain intact.

Tue-May 7-Volume was up a bit, but not dramatically, with heightening trade tensions with China. Trump-China talks on Thursday, if positive, will most likely offset strong stock market bearishness.

Wed-May 8-Low volume on mild stock market bearishness suggests minimal trade tension concerns.

Thu-May 9-The same as Wednesday but with a bit more stock market bearish aggression.

Fri-May 10-Very low volume accompanied early day stock market bearishness followed with a solid bullish close. The low volume again suggests minimal fundamental concerns with trade tensions.

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 6.7% since their buy signals an average of 12.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 28.4%.

The NTI is avoiding eleven ETFs. They are down by an average of 3.1% since their sell signals an average of 3.2-weeks ago.

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 4

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 8

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bear May 10, 2019, replacing the Jan 4, 2019-Stock Market Bull.

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 6.7 % since their buy signals an average of 14.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 24.1%.

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding six ETFs. They are down by an average of 9.3% since their sell signals an average of 7.8-weeks ago.

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 14

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term stock market bull, effective Feb 1, 2019, replacing bearish bias from Oct 10, 2018.

Reverse Tangential Projections

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.