May 8, 2022, Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report
Volume 05,
Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report
The Latest Human Folly -
Disinformation
The eight Mid-term Indicant bear signals remain supportive of the stock
market bear. The Federal Reserve is now attempting to fight inflation with
interest rate hikes. That will dampen bullish enthusiasm. The historical
pattern is to aggressively increase interest rates. The idea is to dampen
the demand for anything, including oil. The current political elite do not
like oil. They want oil prices to skyrocket. If the Fed is successful, oil
prices can fall, but falling economy will impose an increasingly carless
society. Few will have jobs and with that fewer cars will be sold to
consume the oil. Either way, the middleclass is about to endure another
cycle of its decline in their quality of life. The middleclass pays the
bills more than any other class. The really rich and really poor do not
pay much tax. Only those in between. So, the policies of the so-called
prevailing left demonstrate they are lunatics. They are making the same
mistake of the Bolsheviks, where three to four generations live miserable
lives and then the system collapses. Why develop a system that collapses?
Lunatics have no answer for they are just lunatics, which is increasingly
obvious from the pontificating society. Their gibberish is pure lunacy.
The human species is in decline. The stock market bull requires increasing
human effectiveness.
The disinformation campaign, created by the main generators of
disinformation. is an attempt to destroy the U.S. Constitution, which
provides the freedom to both productive people as well as lunatics. The
problem is that the lunatics want the only and final say on any subject.
Disinformation is a common element of human beings where 80% of them lie.
Rest assured the other 20% are not politicians or their appointees. The
stock market bull will not coexist if that 20% are shuttered. The stock
market prefers the lies so it can override with the truth.
Here is an example of disinformation from the Whitehouse. They have
repeatedly blamed inflation and the related rising price of oil on
Vladimir Putin. On November 5, 2020, which was the same week the
presidential election, oil traded at $39.26/Bbl. Speculators knew what
the democratic party was going to do and immediately started buying the
commodity, shoving the price higher. So, the baseline is set to the week
of the 2020 presidential elections. day. Lunatics are predictable and the
smart always act on what is predictable.
On Feb 17, 2022, one week before Russia attacked Ukraine, oil was trading
at $92.03. So, prior to being able to blame Putin, oil increased from
$39.26 to $92.03 or by 155.5%.
As of last Thursday evening, oil was trading at $109.03. Since Russia
attacked Ukraine, oil increased from $92.03 to $109.03 or by 18%. So,
before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, oil prices increased 155.5% and only
18% after Putin’s invasion. But, yet the Whitehouse blames Putin. That is
disinformation and the same plutocrats are wanting to appoint a czar to
regulate disinformation. One little three-pound brain, who is human with
an 80% of chance of lying, can decide what is disinformation and what is
true. The stock market understood lunacy in the 1930’s.
Repeated Whitehouse press conferences blamed Putin for the rise in oil
prices. Disinformation is a fancy word developed by those that disinform.
Lying is a more appropriate word. The Whitehouse fabricates a lie to hide
one of their many policy follies. The reduced the supply of oil, against
increasing demand for oil. With that, prices will rise. Capitalists since
the beginning have been problem solvers. Pontificators have never solved a
problem. They only create them. Nearly all earth’s inhabitants can talk.
So, there is nothing special about pontificators. Only a few know how to
build an engine or a battery.
Let’s pretend we are Adam Schiff for a few moments. Let’s fabricate
something similar to Schiff’s ability to do so. Here is how it could go.
“In late 2021, President Biden called his pal Vladimir Putin and said,
you have the green light to attack Ukraine. I am falling in the polls and
need a distraction, plus an addition bump in oil prices so I can blame
you, Vladimir. Of course, my good friend, you will not care if Americans
are mad at you for rising oil prices. Vladimir responded, “that sounds
great, Joe. I had rather you be in the Whitehouse than that crazy Trump or
anyone else.”
Now, the previous paragraph is disinformation, as there is no proof of
that. There are little three-pound brains that contrive that sort of stuff
daily. If the author were a Trump associate, contemporary news media would
not include the first sentence in this paragraph. They would, however,
blast the above paragraph, claiming it to be disinformation.
The stock market bull does not mind lies. However, the stock market bull
will not coexist when only one group is authorized to lie. The Hegelian
Dialectic will in the end survive. The problem is that it can take
centuries for a wrong cycle to correct.
Last week, the ten major indices were down by an average of only 0.4%. The
DJT-(Chart)
and DJU-(Chart)
were bullish, while the other eight indices were bearish. All of those
eight indices are enduring Mid-term Indicant bear signals. Most attributes
are increasingly bearish. The Fed raised interest rates 50-basis points.
If interest rate hikes are aggressive and/or inflation continues to
increase, a 1970’s like stock market can manifest and even worse. That
decade endured rising oil prices, high inflation, and increasing interest
rates. Mortgage rates will also rise, but still remain low enough for
strong home ownership.
The primary attribute of interest are force vectors. You want to see them
rise. Right now they are falling and vector pressure is in bearish
domains. The stock market bull cannot regain traction with those two
attributes behaving as they are now. The next section discusses them in
detail.
Mid-term Indicant Status of
the Major Indices
The major stock market indices can be
accessed by clicking this sentence.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the below terms.
Click this sentence to understand the
details on the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for
Explanation1):
1-Red Bull, 9-Non-Red Bulls
Comment: The lone Red Bull, DJU-(Chart),
is above Red by 5.6%. The stock market bull is no longer dominant.
However, just one Red Bull prevents the stock market bear from absolute
domination.
Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for
Explanation2):
0-Blue Bulls, 10-Non-Blue Bulls
Comment: The absence of Blue Bulls is maximal non-bullishness.
The bear is no longer enduring one of the major forces of resistance. The
stock market bear can attack without much resistance.
Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for
Explanation3):
0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow
Bears
Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 22.6%. The
absence of Yellow Bears strongly suggest economic depression is not
possible now. Stock market dynamics are never wrong in predicting that,
but sometimes predicts a non-existing recession. Recession or not, the
Indicant’s focus is to avoid bears. It will not wait for a 22.6% drop
before signaling bear. Rest assured a future Yellow Bear lurks, but not
along the mid-term horizon at this time. Also, keep in mind, severe stock
market bears can drop 50.0% in a matter of weeks, while a stock market
bull’s 50% increase is much slower. Keep in mind a 50% drop requires a
100% increase to displace the 50% drop.
Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for
Explanation4):
8-Green Bears, 2-Non-Green Bears
Comment: The two non-Green Bears are above green by 5.8%. The eight Green
Bears are below green by 3.6%. The two non-green bears are the DJU-(Chart)
and DJT-(Chart).
Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5):
10-Red Higher than Green; 0-Green
Higher Than Red
Comment: The mix here is irrelevant at this point with all red curves
above green curves. The over-heating indicator expired and awaiting a new
cycle of overheating. That will be quite some time from now. Most likely
several years from now. Much depends on elections and removal of the
nonsensicality of the newly found movement of the political elite as the
masters of delineating disinformation from fact. On the contrary they are
the masters of disinformation. It is amazing how evil introduces itself as
some sort of master of this and that, while all they are simply
pontificators who has normal disdain from contrarian pontificators.
Neither group is good. The only good from humanity’s contribution are from
within the three meaningful groups of economic sectors. That is
manufacturing, extraction, and agriculture.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6):
1-bullish domains, 9-bearish
domains
Comment: This supports the stock market bear. The lone bullishly
positioned force vector belongs to the DJU-(Chart).
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to
Vector Pressure7):
0-above pressure, 10-below
pressure
Comment: This supports the stock market bear.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8):
1-bullish domains, 9-bearish
domains
Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear. The lone
bullishly positioned vector pressure belongs to the DJU-(Chart).
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9):
1-bullishly directed,
9-bearishly directed
Comment: This shifted violently in favor of the stock market bear nine
weeks ago. After supporting the stock market bull the next six weeks, the
shift four weeks ago continues supporting the stock market bear and
increasingly so the past several weeks. The DJT-(
Chart)
penetrated bullish domains this past week.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10):
0-bullishly directed,
10-bearishly directed
Comment: This is now supporting the stock market bear.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the above terms.
Click this sentence to understand how to
read the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Configured
Condition of Major Indices:
Configurations remain supportive for the stock market bear.
Weekly Buy/Sell Summary –
Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years
Click this sentence for a
graphical summary of what follows in this section.
It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the
webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section.
The below describes the same for the past
five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which
will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along
with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports.
From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific
time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock
Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with
five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002
remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond
the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was
also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008
here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website.
The website has stock market history dating
back to 1900.
The Mid-term Indicant generated
no
buy signals and
17-
sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term
Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 198 of the 315-stocks and
funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up
an average of 350.5% that annualizes to 87.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has
been signaling hold for these 198-stocks and funds for an average of
208.1-weeks. There have been 16 -buy signals for stocks and funds so
far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the
Indicant, hold signals are 62.9% in the market.
The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 100-stocks and funds of 315-tracked by
the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 20.3%
since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 102.3-weeks ago.
There have been 71-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.
Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, avoid
signals are 37.1% out of the market.
One year ago, on May 7, 2021, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 273-stocks
and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 137.4-weeks. They were up
by an average of 284.8%, annualizing at 107.3%. There were 40-avoided
stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of
37.7% since their sell signals an average of 197.6-weeks earlier. There
were three buy signals and no sell signals at this time of year in 2021.
There had been 35-buy signals and 12-sell signals throughout the year on
this weekend in 2021. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by
the Indicant, holds were 87.3% in the market and avoids were 12.7% out of
the market.
Two years ago, on May 8, 2020, the Mid-term Indicant was holding
179-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 159.5-weeks.
They were up by an average of 245.3%, annualizing at 80.0%. There were
135-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an
average of 27.0% since their sell signals an average of 77.3-weeks
earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals at this time of
year in 2020. There had been 105-buy signals and 182-sell signals through
this weekend in 2020. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by
the Indicant, holds were 57.0% in the market and avoids were 43.0% out of
the market. The post Covid Bull was well on its way to dominate again
after March 2020.
Three years ago, on May 10, 2019, the Mid-term Indicant was holding
239-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 237.1-weeks.
They were up by an average of 215.0% (annualized at 47.2%). There were
78-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds
were down by an average of 34.7% since their respective sell signals an
average of 109.9-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and four sell
signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 78-buy signals and 17-sell
signals for the year through this weekend in 2019. Based on the number of
stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 74.5% in the market
and avoids were 25.5% out of the market.
The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 242 stocks and funds on May
4, 2018. They were up 221.1% since their buy signals an average of
257.8-weeks earlier, annualizing at 44.6%. There were 78-avoided stocks
and funds on this weekend since their sell signals an average of
74.1-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this
weekend in 2018. There had been 24-buy signals and 52-sell signals in 2018
through this weekend of that year. Hold signals were 75.7% in the market
and avoid signals were 24.3% out of the market at this time of year in
2018.
The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates.
Abandoned securities have no impact to the above
performance statistics
and the
historical report card.
They always represent
status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities
become NLT (no longer traded), their performance
levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT.
There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds
tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or
listed on major stock exchanges.
The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in
2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the
consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and
related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The
primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and
arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that
fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal
behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}.
Click here to see abandoned
securities.
Comments about Mid-term
Indicant Buy and Sell Signals
Signaling buy and sell has been minimal for several months due to a very
strong bull cycle beginning in April 2020-Covid. That bull cycle was with
large breadth. The few bottom dwellers are not yet configuring with
bullish attributes. Bottom dweller buy signals have been muffled as the
stock market bull lost momentum the past few months. The 2020-21 bull
cycle is unprecedented with the strategic implication of strongly
increasing capitalism. It may be followed by a stronger bear cycle.
Capitalists increase the quality of life. Communist and socialists
decrease it. Those latter two, if unchecked, result in no meaningful stock
market. All goes to zero. So far, capitalism continues to be more
influential, but being challenged by prevailing political power.
Converging are high inflation and a shrinking economy.
Clicking this sentence will
take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.
The Short-term Indicant
signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETFs enjoy a
buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term
Indicant summaries.
These short-term
models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the
Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to
reject short-term trader nervousness.
The Daily Stock Market Report
reports status for the short-term model.
Economic Conditions –
Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates
Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.
Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not
fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it
does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. Control
freaks in political power have 100% potential to create economic and
social calamity with their desired result of a police state. That is why
they encourage asset destruction. That would give them absolute power.
That is never good for anyone but them.
Reported CPI
is no longer healthy. The
PPI,
as reported, is now penetrating the stock market bull and the economy. The
annual inflation rate is reported at 8.5%. Oil prices are up 68.2% from
this time one year ago. Oil is up by $73.01/BBL (+202.7%) since Biden’s
so-called election.
The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and
Effective Rate increased 25-basis points on weekending Mar 18, 2022. That
is the first-rate change since the 100-basis points decrease two years
earlier on Mar 20, 2020.
Economic damage inflicted by
the democratic party, germ warfare from their China pals, and other
overstepping U.S. communistic politicians, and the self-proclaimed elites
are now starting to manifest. The destination to a decreased quality of
life has begun.
The 3-Month T-Bill
shifted to Red Bull status on
weekending Jan 28, 2022, after about two and a half years of enduring
Yellow Bear status since Jul 19, 2019.
Although still near zero,
the T-Bill has risen a significant amount the past several weeks to the
delight of the stock market bear. That behavior is now more visible on the
chart as interest rates continue escaping the gravity of zero in a race to
the clouds of stupidity.
The
Euro dropped to
Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 22, 2021, after losing Red Bull
status on weekending Jul 31, 2021. It continues residence in the domain
of the Yellow Bear. The 2024-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more
aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.88 to $0.94.
The
Canadian dollar
bounced above Yellow (weakening) during the week of July 17, 2021. That
was the first bounce above Yellow since Sep 21, 2020. It surged above Red
(additional weakening) during the week of Dec 14, 2021, but fell below Red
the very next week and remaining in the zone of neutrality. Its 2024-mean
forecast is $1.29CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker
values ranging from $1.81CA to $1.88CA.
The
Japanese Yen
continues weakening since crossing above Red on Apr 2, 2021. Its narrow
min-max points from 2017 through mid-2021 remains impressive with that
tightness continuing through September 2021, when some additional
weakening occurred. It now appears to be escaping that tight trading range
from 2017 through mid-2021. It weakened severely the week of Apr 4, 2022,
and now escaping its tight trading range. Its statistical mean forecast is
at 110-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the aggressive polynomials are
projecting a range of 151-155-Yen/U.S. dollar. It also strengthened during
the week of the U.S. presidential election but has been holding above Red
the past several weeks (weakening).
The
British Pound
lost Red Bull status in late July 2021 but bouncy around Red until
weekending Dec 3, 2021, where it lost commitment to retaining Red Bull
status. It fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Dec 17, 2021,
regaining Red Bull status, briefly, and again a Yellow Bear as of Mar 11,
2022 and falling further below Yellow. Its statistical mean forecast is at
$1.33 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.97-$1.00 by
Dec 2024. The last bearish cycle was deeper than the prior one suggesting
a trend reversal favoring its bearishness.
The
Bitcoin
fell below $50,000-U.S. on weekending Dec 10, 2021 for the first time in
several weeks. A few weeks after that, it bounced back above $50,000 with
the threat of rising inflation exceeding that of the threat of rising
interest rates. It has been comfortable around $40,000 for several months.
Gold endured Yellow Bear
status on weekending Apr 2, 2021 and rejected that on weekending Apr 23,
2021. It finally
abandoned an absence of bullish or bearish commitment and now a solid Red
Bull. The Dec 2024-mean forecast is $1,850/oz. while the more aggressive
polynomials are projecting a Dec 2024 value approximating
$1,240-$1,310/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the
Indicant Daily Stock
Market Report
by tracking
ETF#11-GLD.
Oil regained Red Bull status
on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after moving above the domain of the Yellow
Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020.
It had been bouncy around $40/bbl. for several weeks but became highly
bullish since Biden’s so-called election. The Dec 2024-intrinsic and
aggressive polynomial forecast remains below zero with the statistical
mean forecast of $60/bbl. Saudi Royalty is very pleased with their new low
IQ puppets in D.C. The Russians are also delighted with an interpretation
they can retry conquering the world. There is some jawboning where the
Royalty is being told to lower prices or the D.C. puppets will be tossed
out.
The
CRB Bridge Futures
regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after abandoning
Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020. That correlated well
with a dumb populace and vote cheaters supporting the communistic takeover
attempt of the U.S. It is now aggressively contributing to inflation with
it regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It also
strengthened during the week of the U.S. election and has continued doing
so with no sign of any countermeasures from the source of the inflationary
problem; the democratic party, news media, lunatic masses in their deep
state of tabula rasa, and now a little Russian guy attempting to conquer
other nations. It continues being bullish and thus inflationary.
Mortgage rates regained Red
Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021, after falling into Yellow Bear
status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.
As of weekending Dec 3,
2021, they were weak Red Bulls, but now increasingly militant to future
home buyers. They continue showing signs of passing a bottom. This no
longer remains a great time to finance real estate. However, it is still a
good time, as interest rates will be triple prevailing levels before 2024.
The
consumer price index
and
producer price index
are now computing without the combined absolute value of threatening
interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%.
Mid-term Indicant
Positions – Ten U.S. Indices
There were no new bull signals, and no new bear signals
this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for two of the ten major indices.
The two bulls are up by an average of 32.9% since their bull signals an
average of 76.0-weeks ago and annualizing at 22.5%. The eight bears are
down by an average of 3.1% since their bear signals one week ago.
The Mid-term Indicant Dow
Jones Industrial Average
performance is at $72.1 million. That beats buy and hold performance of
$4.8 million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The
MTI S&P500
is at $4.43 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.77 million on a Jan 6,
1950, $10,000 investment. The
MTI-NASDAQ
is at $2.87 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.21 million on a Jan 29,
1971, $10,000 investment. The
MTI-Dow Transports
is at $44.0-million. That is better than buy and hold $1.06 million since
a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats
buy and hold by 1,499.6%, 250.9%, 235.2%, and 4,135.5%, respectively, for
these indices as of this past week.
There are two reasons why the
Dow Transport
index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory
Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the
statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends
to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness
more than other indices.
The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change
during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same
magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the
cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.
Click here for a tour of the
Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
NASDAQ100 Stocks
Click here to see NASDAQ100
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
NASDAQ 100 Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks
Click here to see Dow 30
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Table of
Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks
Click here to see Dow
Utilities Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones
Utility Stocks Table.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Indicant Selected Stocks
Click here to see Indicant
Select Stock Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
Indicant Selected Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Mutual Funds
Click here to see Mutual Fund
Report Card history.
Click here for the Mid-term
Table of Mutual Funds.
The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for
MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short
on April 3, 2009. It
is down 99.9% since then. Although this is classically presidential
post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy
and hold during 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2021 as the stock market bear
remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those four presidential
post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical lows in the 2008/9
recession and have persisted since then and thus giving rise to equity
attractiveness to investors. Recent elections are highlighting left
leaning political movements. The return of politburo wannabes in congress
will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at
some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting
damage to the economy and the corrupt election of the democratic
(communist) party. Keep in mind, politburos confiscate. They are already
confiscating your freedom. Conditions are mounting favoring strong profit
potential in this economic climate, despite the newly forming political
threat by the communistic movement now underway with the guise of climate
change, racism, China virus-Covid rules, etc. Sociopathic political
leadership is more common than not throughout recorded history. The
presidential post-election year of 2021 successfully argued against
historical trends of stock market bearishness. Low interest rates continue
being credited with this and should be referred to as the Bernanke/Trump
bull. Rest assured lying politicians take credit. And, as always, a
populace believing the lies will eventually pay the price. Russia’s desire
to dominate others is a new opportunity for this fund, as long as the
dominated are not Americans. In that case, nothing has value, including
gold.
Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of
Mutual Funds
Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good
way to mix your investments.
Long Term Indicant
Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average
The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in
November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five
bull/bear cycles since 1920.
The Dow is up 1,036.5%, annualized at 33.9% since the Long-term Indicant
signaled bull 1,592-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on
the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable
interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull
signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with
today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up
triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when
considering long-term planning.
Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great
bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009
recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.
The next section is the last
daily stock market report for this past
week.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Archives
{Repeated here are from
the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week.
Click this link to see all the daily
reports from the last 12-months.
Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of
the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the
end of each week}.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Summary
May 6-The stock market bear continues its militancy along the short-term
cycle. Most non-contrarian ETF’s and stock market indices are enduring
bear/sell signals along both the near-term and quick-term cycles.
Fundamentally and technically, the stock market bull has no reason to
renew itself.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Details
Click this sentence to see table leading to
the charts.
Index Near-term Report Card
Summary
The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Number of Near-term Bulls: 2 of 12
Duration of Near-term Bulls: 5.5-wks-avg.
Near-term Bull Performance: 4.5%; Annualized Performance: 42.1%
Number of Near-term Bears: 10 of 12
Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 2.2-wks. avg.
Near-term Bears Average Performance: -3.1%
Near-term Performance
Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock
Market Bear
Near-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 0 of 11
Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 2 of 11
Near-term Position Cyclical
Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock
Market Bear
Index Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant signaled no
new bulls and
two
new bears.
Number of Quick-term Bulls: 2 of 12 (Quick-term Bullish Unanimity)
Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 17.5-wks.
Quick-term Bull Performance: 9.2%; Quick-term Annualized Performance:
27.4%.
Number of Quick-term Bears: 2 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 2.0-weeks-avg.
Quick-term Bear Performance: -2.7%
Quick-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12
Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 3 of 12
Quick-term Configured
Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term
Advantage to Bear
Short-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 1 of 11
Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 10 of 11
Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 0 of 11
Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 9 of 11
Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 4 of 11
Short-term Advantage:
Short-term Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term
Advantage to Bear
Indicant Volume Indicators
May 6-Both the NYSE and NASDAQ volume indicators were higher than recent
averages last week on mild stock market bearishness, but with profound
volatility. That favors continuing stock market bearishness.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and
Charts
ETF Near-term Report Card
Summary
There were no buy signals and no-sell signals along the near-term cycle.
The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for five ETF’s. Those enjoying
hold signals are up by an average of 14.4% since their buy signals an
average of 18.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 41.6%.
The NTI is avoiding 27-ETF’s.
They are down by an average of 6.1% since their sell signals an average of
4.9-weeks ago.
Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 24
Near-term Advantage:
Stock Market Bear
as of Apr 22, 2022
ETF Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant generated no
buy
signals and no sell
signals.
The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for eleven ETF’s. They are up by
an average of 21.5% since their buy signals an average of 37.8-weeks ago,
annualizing at 29.7%.
The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 21-ETF’s. They are down by an average
of 7.5% since their sell signals 6.3-weeks ago.
Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 22
Quick-term Advantage:
Quick-term Stock Market Bull Mar
25, 2022
Reverse Tangential
Projections
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and
magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there
is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined
table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The
table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models
and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the NASDAQ Composite Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the S&P500 Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Understanding Content on the Short-term
Indicant Charts
Indicant Conclusion
The eight Mid-term Indicant bear signals remain supportive of the stock
market bear. The Federal Reserve is now attempting to fight inflation with
interest rate hikes. That will dampen bullish enthusiasm. The
disinformation war created by the generators of disinformation is an
attempt to destroy the U.S. Constitution. Disinformation is a common
element of human beings where 80% of them lie. Rest assured the 20% are
not politicians or their appointees. The stock market bull will not
coexist. It prefers the lies so it can override with the truth.
Click
this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.
Click this sentence to maintain stock
market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes
can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that
continue to enjoy hold signals.
Hyperlinks
To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts,
statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log
in. It is on the top of every page on the website, so you can always find
your way back.
Stop Loss Management
This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes.
You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.
The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with
less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new
buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after
buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve
values, depending on your personal preferences.
For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple
digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do
not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to
minimize losses.
Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop
losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive
the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then
quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it
is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of
stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below
prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of
course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most
dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a
combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long
after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow
curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio
values.
For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables.
If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average
the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is
rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is
a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its
value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop
losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow
passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow
price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are
supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece
of a great company or fund.
If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold,
normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is
signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific
buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other
opportunities will emerge.
Click this sentence to keep up with the
Short-term Indicant.
Click this sentence to maintain stock
market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes
can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that
continue to enjoy hold signals.
Happy Investing,
www.indicant.net
05/08/2022