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Oct 10, 2021 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 10, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

  

Can the Stock Market Bull’s Counterattack Last Week Continue?

The stock market bull apparently is not paying attention to the underlying communistic takeover of the U.S. It does not care that the U.S. Government, which is longer a government of the people, by the people, for the people, is wanting to access your checking account activity for IRS weaponry against the people. The gluttony for your money is accelerating by the people above you. Your voice and opinion about school curriculums is not only unwelcome, it is being determined as criminal by those above you. The goal of any sociopathic cause of those above the masses is to indoctrinate future generations to be subservient. 500-years of success created by capitalists has allowed too many people to be comfortable and thus the resulting idleness of many has allowed for human creativity in the abstract arts of items such as critical race theory.

 

The problem with government is its abstract nature. Government is not real. It is a mere and fragile abstract. Many forms of governments have come and gone. The public sector never invents or even produces anything. The public sector (government) consists of mere people. All the government is is a mere collection of people who want to be in government. Who gets a job with the public sector? Some were simply looking for a job. Others sought security. They are the antithesis to the entrepreneur, who does not think of security and definitely does not want a job from someone else.

 

The other major group of people in the public sector are politicians. They are molded with the same attributes as witch doctors. They have been pontificating about this and that since the beginning of time, claiming this cause or that cause with absolutely zero proof of their pontifications. The amazing behavioral pattern of humanity is that they tend to listen to the witch doctors. That is unbelievable.

 

The stock market bull is not disturbed by increasing witch-doctoring by mere people in the public sector. There are only people; some in the public sector and others in the private sector. The former and the latter do not think the same. Governments cannot turn bad or good. It is the people in government that turns bad. They hardly ever stay good. Hillary Clinton is in government. She broke laws to gain power. They is why people in government turn bad. They simply want power, looking down upon you with the idea you do not have as much right to consume earth’s finite resources. Those resources are simply to be consumed by the public sector. You have all known control freaks that attempt to corral the behavior of all those around them. The “people” in degenerative governments are no different. Public sector people have a sensation of being able to rule over the masses. The pharaohs, Hitler, Stalin, etc. are primary examples of that. The contemporary democratic party is joining those types. Accessing your checking accounts in addition to disarming the populace allows those who have a sensation of superiority is just one more step in support of sociopathic desires. Confronting school board lunatics is now being criminalized. Disagreeing with sociopaths is disallowed.

 

The stock market bull continues enjoying low interest rates and relatively low inflation. The latter will be problematic at some point in the future due to increasing reductions is supply and increasing punishment to realists (capitalists). Interest rates will most likely stay low until after the 2022 mid-term elections. Interest rates are set by the people employed by the Federal Reserve Board. Depending on their political leanings, interest rates will be established. Since they are public servants, they have a bit more power with democratic party in power. With that, do not be surprised at significant inflation ahead of the 2024-presidential elections followed by strong increases in interest rates hikes in late 2024 or early 2025. The corresponding stock market bear will be horrendously bad.

 

With all of that, the stock market does not care about 2024 or early 2025. It is focused on the next two to three quarters. Right now, the stock market bull remains intact due to nine of ten major indices enjoying Red Bull status. The only technical concern is falling vector pressure.  

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

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Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 9-Red Bulls, 1-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: One Red Bull expired on weekending Sep 25, 2021. It was the DJU-(Chart). No other Red Bulls have yet to expire from the post Covid bull. The nine Red Bulls are averaging 12.0% above the bullish red curve. Red Bulls cannot endure bear signals. With that, the stock market can drop approximately by 12.0% before enduring bear signals.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 1-Blue Bulls, 9-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: Blue Bulls have been in the minority the past four weeks, favoring the stock market bear. There were no Blue Bulls on weekending Oct 2, 2021. Surprisingly, among the weaker of major indices, the S&P100-(Chart) regained Blue Bull status this past week. The shortage of Blue Bulls remains a major threat to the stock market bull’s existence.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 43.0%. The absence of Yellow Bears strongly suggest economic depression is not possible now. Stock market dynamics are never wrong in predicting that, but sometimes predicts a non-existing recession. Recession or not, the Indicant’s focus is to avoid bears. It will not wait for a 43.0% drop before signaling bear. Rest assured a future Yellow Bear lurks, but not along the mid-term horizon at this time. Also, keep in mind, severe stock market bears can drop 50.0% in a matter of weeks, while a stock market bull’s 50% increase is much slower. Keep in mind a 50% drop requires a 100% increase to displace the 50% drop.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: Non-existing green bears are non-bearish. The ten major indices are above green by 5.1%. Green is where a bear is typically signaled, but it rises quickly, making it unlikely a bear signal would be triggered after a 5.1% stock market drop. As earlier stated, Red Bulls are immune to bear signals. Green prices rose faster than market prices the past several weeks. With that, the next bear signal will not occur until prices fall below Red.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 1-Red Higher than Green; 9-Greens Higher Than Red

              Comment: The lone major red curve, belonging to the DJU-(Chart), is above the green curve. Each Green crossing above Red evinces overbought market conditions. The DJU’s recent bearishness suggests it will not have the opportunity for its green curve to eclipse its red curve.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 1-bullish domain, 9-bearish domains

              Comment:  As of weekending Oct 2, 2021, none of the force vectors were in bullish domains, offering minimal resistance to the ambitions of the stock market bear. The S&P600-(Chart) climbed into bullish domains this past week.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 1-above pressure, 9-below pressure

              Comment: On weekending Oct 2, 2021, stock market force was weakened below stock market pressure. The small cap index, S&P600-(Chart), climbed into bullish domains this past week.

           

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 5-bullish domains, 5-bearish domains

              Comment: This by one last week with the stock market bull’s angry response to prior week’s attack by the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 5-bullishly directed, 5-bearishly directed

              Comment: Last week’s bullishness shifted five force vectors back into a bullish direction.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 0-bullishly directed, 10-bearishly directed

            Comment: The stock market bear continues influencing an important ally to into bearish domains where it can dominate.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Red Bulls continue dominating and as long as that remains in effect the stock market bull cannot be defeated by the stock market bear. However, all other attributes are favoring the stock market bear. Vector pressure even dissipated its support for the stock market bull.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. The website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 270 of the 315-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 318.0% that annualizes to 101.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 270-stocks and funds for an average of 162.7-weeks. There have been 48-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, hold signals are 86.0% in the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 44-stocks and funds of 315-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 31.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 169.9-weeks ago. There have been 14-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.  Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, avoid signals are 14.0% out of the market.

 

One year ago, on Oct 9, 2020, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 220-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 175.7-weeks. They were up by an average of 324.9%, annualizing at 96.2%. There were 88-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of 29.0% since their sell signals an average of 117.7-weeks earlier. There were eight buy signals and no sell signals at this time of year in 2020.  There had been 217-buy signals and 246-sell signals throughout the year on this weekend in 2020. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 72.2% in the market and avoids were 27.8% out of the market, as the COVID-19-stock market bear continued being obliterated by the stock market bull.

 

Two years ago, on Oct 11, 2019, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 240-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 248.8-weeks. They were up by an average of 234.9% (annualized at 49.1%). There were 80-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 31.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 104.2-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were no buy signals and one sell signal for the year through this weekend in 2019. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 74.8% in the market and avoids were 25.2% out of the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 251-stocks and funds on Oct 12, 2018. They were up 217.3% since their buy signals an average of 242.5-weeks earlier, annualizing at 46.6%. There were 73-avoided stocks and funds on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 84.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and seven sell signals on this weekend in 2018. There had been 73-buy signals and 92-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year. Hold signals were 78.2% in the market and avoid signals were 21.8% out of the market at this time of year in 2018.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 264-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked on Oct 6, 2017. They were up by an average of 188.4%, annualizing at 43.9% since their respective buy signals an average of 223.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 49-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 18.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 104.6-weeks earlier. There were eight buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been a total of 71-buy signals 51-sell signals through this weekend in 2017. Hold signals were 84.7% in the market and avoid signals were 15.3% out of the market.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Signaling buy and sell has been minimal for several months due to a very strong bull cycle beginning in April 2020. That bull cycle was with large breadth. The few bottom dwellers are not yet configuring with bullish attributes. Bottom dweller buy signals have been muffled as the stock market bull lost momentum in the past few months. The 2020-21 bull cycle is unprecedented with the strategic implication of strongly increasing capitalism. It may be followed by a stronger bear cycle. Capitalists increase the quality of life. Communist and socialists decrease it. That latter two, if unchecked, result in no meaningful stock market. All goes to zero.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. The control freaks in political power now have 100% potential to create economic and social calamity with their desired result of a police state. That would give them absolute power. That is never good for anyone but them.

 

Although increasing above Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, despite recent notable inflation. The PPI remains non-threatening to the stock market bull. A democratic controlled congress with a lunatic democratic president adds profound inflationary threats. Despite the eventuality of some factors, inflation remains tame for the time being, as it is being reported, but starting to accelerate as of weekending Apr 17, 2021. The annual inflation rate is being reported at 5.3%. Oil prices are up 94.0% from this time one year ago. Oil is up $43.57/BBL (+121.0%) since Biden’s so-called election.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate decreased by 100-basis points over a year ago on Mar 20, 2020, following a 50-basis point cut on weekending Mar 6, 2020.  That followed less aggressive decreases on Aug 2, 2019, Sep 19, 2019, and Nov 2, 2019. These less aggressive decreases were miniscule to the increases on Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018, Sep 30, 2018, and Dec 21, 2018. High unemployment, germ warfare from China, overstepping U.S. communistic politicians, and self-proclaimed elites continue confronting the stock market bull. So far, the markets are not believing these threats are sustainable for at least the next nine-months. The Federal Reserve Board announced in early 2021 they will be reactive to economic conditions, as opposed to attempting to forecast them. That is okay because the Fed has never been good at forecasting. They eat well regardless of their performance.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill fell to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 19, 2019.  After falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear, it started a rebound attempt on weekending Jan 10, 2020, but fell deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 6, 2020, under the influence of China’s germ warfare, called Covid-19, and rapidly falling even more after that and below zero on weekending Mar 19, 2020, with a small bounce north of zero on weekending Apr 3, 2020. Since then, it remains near zero. However, it finally climbed out of that status on weekending Feb 12, 2021, while still in bottom-feeding mode. That is about to change. If it does not, inflation will occur. The charts show some small upward movements at the bottom. The stock market right now favors inflation over rising interest rates. Inflation is okay with the stock market bull for a period. So far, all is okay.

           

The Euro lost Red Bull status on weekending Jul 31, 2021, after regaining it on weekending Jun 18, 2020. It is approaching Yellow Bear status again, but in a non-threatening way. It is now moving a bit bullishly above Yellow. The 2024-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.79 to $0.81.

 

The Canadian dollar bounced above Yellow (weakening) during the week of July 17, 2021. That is the first bounce above Yellow since Sep 21, 2020. Its 2024-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $2.08CA to $2.09CA.

 

The Japanese Yen discontinued its steady three-year long downward drift (strengthening) from 2018 through 2020. It continues mild weakening since crossing above Red on Apr 2, 2021. Its narrow min-max points since 2017 remain impressive with that tightness continuing to the present. Its statistical mean forecast is at 108-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 157-163-Yen/U.S. dollar. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. presidential election but has been holding above Red the past few weeks (weakening).

 

The British Pound enjoyed Red Bull status on the week of August 3, 2020, for the first time in over a year. It was not comfortable there and fell below Red on Sep 10, 2020, but regained Red Bull status on Nov 20, 2020. It remains configured with overcoming repeating cycles of weakening with Red Bull attributes. They are no longer strong, but yet persistent. Its statistical mean forecast is at $1.32 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.78-$0.83 by Dec 2024. Since its mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it drifted bearishly, which has been its direction since its peak in 2008. It also strengthened during the week of the 2020 U.S. election and continues to do so and dynamically so. The U.S. is moving toward the land of yellow teeth and perhaps even worse.

 

The Bitcoin skyrocketed during the week of Nov 30, 2020 and again during the weeks of Dec 13, 2020 and Dec 20, 2020 and again in early Feb 2021. After climbing to over $60,000 on Mar 11, 2021, it has been relatively stable until this past week with a solid jump above $50,000.

                       

Gold endured Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 2, 2021 and rejected that on weekending Apr 23, 2021.  It continues in the domain of the Yellow Bear. The Bitcoin is now better reflecting the potential for inflation than gold, which achieved an all-time high in early August 2020. The Dec 2024-mean forecast is $1,790/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a Dec 2024 value approximating $935-$1,010/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after moving above the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020. It had been bouncy around $40/bbl for several weeks but became highly bullish since Biden’s so-called election. The Dec 2024-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast remains below zero with the statistical mean forecast of $56/bbl. Saudi Royalty is very pleased with their new low IQ puppets in D.C. Oil is up 121.0% since Biden’s so-called election. It is no longer stabilizing.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after abandoning Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020. It is now aggressively contributing to inflation with it regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. election and has continued doing so with no sign of any countermeasures from the source of the inflationary problem; the democratic party, news media, and the lunatic masses in their deep state of tabula rasa. It continues being bullish.

 

Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021 after falling into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  They are no longer Yellow Bears and showing some signs of passing a bottom. This remains a great time to finance real estate for those willing to incur debt during uncertainties from the Coronavirus and the more damaging sociopathic politicians.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak. The coronavirus had been disrupting that line of thinking but nearing its disruptive end. A new problem is the political climate, which always has the potential to be massively disruptive to economic conditions. Politicians have a long history of being economically destructive and completely absent of being constructive.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all ten major indices. The ten bulls are up by an average of 41.2% since their bull signals an average of 60.5-weeks ago and annualizing at 35.4%. The Mid-term Indicant regained bullish unanimity along the Mid-term Indicant cycle on weekending Oct 9, 2020, and lost it again on weekending Dec 25, 2020, and regained that highly desired configuration on Feb 5, 2021, and then lost it again on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It again configured with bullish unanimity on weekending Mar 26, 2021 and has been holding despite sideways movement by some of the major indices.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $78.36-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $5.21-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $4.71-million. That beats buy and hold’s $2.59-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $3.58-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.46-million on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $43.35-million. That is better than buy and hold $1.05-million since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,504.5%, 182.3%, 245.5%, and 4,135.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transport index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.9% since then. Although this is classically presidential post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical lows in the 2008/9 recession and have persisted since then and thus giving rise to equity attractiveness to investors. Recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. The return of politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the economy and the corrupt election of the democratic (communist) party. Keep in mind, politburos confiscate. They are already confiscating your freedom. Conditions are mounting favoring strong profit potential in this economic climate, despite the newly forming political threat by the communistic movement now underway with the guise of climate change, racism, China virus-Covid rules, etc. Sociopathic political leadership is more common than not throughout recorded history. So far, the presidential post-election year of 2021 continues arguing against historical trends of stock market bearishness. Low interest rates continue being credited with this. Rest assured lying politicians take credit.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 1,100.3%, annualized at 36.6% since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,562-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Oct 9, 2021-Partially contrarian ETF#14-TLT-(Chart) endured the only sell signal. It will be avoided next week, joining primarily non-contrarian ETF’s. That suggests the near-term stock market bear may be nearing an end. There are occasions when TLT is non-contrarian. Despite that paradox, there were no new buy signals or bull signals along the near-term cycle as vector pressure remains in bearish domains. Until that attribute changes, the near-term stock market bear will continue.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 2 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 6.5-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: -5.1%; Annualized Performance: -5.1%

Number of Near-term Bears: 10 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 2.1-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: +0.4%  

Near-term Performance Advantage: Oct 1, 2021-Stock Market Bear

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 8 of 11 

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 1 of 11

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Oct 1, 2021-Stock Market Bear

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                   

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 61.5-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 44.8%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 37.9%.

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 3.0-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -2.1%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Oct 1, 2021-Quick-term Advantage to Bear

                                   

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses     

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 9 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 2 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 100 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 8 of 11

 

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Advantage: Oct 1, 2021 Stock Market Bear

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Oct 8-Volume was steady last week suggesting that only market bias conditions as opposed to dynamic market shifts. Both volume indicators are increasing their interest, NASDAQ volume penetrated the domain of high interest, suggesting the potential for increasing NASDAQ magnitudes with a mild bias favoring the stock market bear.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

There were no buy signals and one sell signal along the near-term cycle.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for seven-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 0.4% since their buy signals an average of 6.1-weeks ago, annualizing at 3.4%.

 

The NTI is avoiding 24-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 1.2% since their sell signals 1.7-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue  Bulls: 12

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 7

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bear as of Sep 17, 2021

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 45.6% since their buy signals an average of 59.6-weeks ago, annualizing at 39.8%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding seven-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 2.6% since their sell signals 4.1-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 3

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red    Bulls: 2

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bear Oct 1, 2021

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                    

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

Despite stock market bullishness last week, the short-term cycle remains with bearish attributes. There were no new short-term buy or bull signals. Even though the mid-term cycle remains bullish, the stock market is not configured with enthusiastic attributes in support of the stock market bull. With that do not get enthusiastic about last week’s bullishness. Wait for bull and buy signals along the short-term cycle.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

10/10/2021

 

 

 

 

 

 

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