Sep 13, 2020 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report
Volume 9,
Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report
Bullish Unanimity Lost Due
to Small Cap Bearishness
It is disappointing for those desiring a bullish stock market for the
small cap indices to fall prey to the stock market bear. The
mid-cap index, S&P400-(Chart),
and the small cap index, S&P600-(Chart),
both endured bear signals along the Mid-term Indicant cycle after this
week’s stock market close. Those two indices also endured Short-term
Indicant bear signals this past Wednesday, which was a solidly bullish day
for the stock market.
You can access both Short-term Indicant
charts by clicking this sentence. As you can see, both their vector pressures fell into
bearish domains this past Wednesday, despite their bullishness that day
along with bullishness in the other major indices. Bearishly positioned
vector pressure, along with falling below the near-term green curve
triggered the new bear signals. Both of their force vectors continue
diving deep into bearish domains.
The smaller cap indices represent companies who do not have sufficient
lobbying capacity in the swamp lands of Washington D.C., which is the
capitol of corruption. When the polls suggest probabilities, favoring the
democratic party, the smaller caps are the first to fall from bullish
favor. Rules and regulations will be increased with a democratic victory,
favoring the larger caps at the expense of the smaller caps, small
business, and even you, as an individual.
The Short-term Indicant’s bear signal means that both the Near-term
Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled bear. The reason the Quick-term
Indicant signaled bear before falling below Yellow was due to its
proximity to its prior bull signal. Post Covid nervousness generated
excessive bull/bear signals. Parameters were adjusted to signal bull when
eclipsing Red. Last Wednesday’s small and mid-cap configurations
threatened profitability and thus the quicker than normal bear signal was
triggered. Bearish vector pressure is a predominant attribute and with it
in bearish domains, excessive risks in holding smaller caps manifested.
The Mid-term Indicant normally signals bear with bearish force and
pressure and when prices fall below the short-cycle green curve. The gap
between prevailing prices and the green curve is too wide to continue
holding as these smaller cap indices are the most volatile among the major
indices. Falling below the blue curve with falling force below pressure
triggered the new bear signals. Clicking the (Chart)
for the S&P400-Index and the
Chart)
for the S&P600-Index will show you these conditions. That coupled with
their previous bull signals being triggered by eclipsing the short-cycle
blue curve added to the risks of holding these smaller caps.
The mid-term election year of 2010 remains with historical significance.
As you can see by clicking this sentence,
the S&P400 enjoyed Bull Signal#02 in the summer of 2010.
The stock market accurately predicted that Pelosi would be booted out as
Speaker of the House of Representatives and that Barack Obama’s agenda
would be stalemated by a republican controlled congress.
Clicking this sentence for the S&P600 will
show you that it never crossed below the short-cycle green curve and thus
avoided a new bear signal. However, it was bearish and it also enjoyed a strong
bullish rally ahead of the 2010 mid-term elections.
This mid-term election year is different with treason occurring in some
governors’ mansions, lying politicians, and Covid, which has become
entirely political. Communist China provided the U.S. democratic-communist
party the most powerful gift it could. Without Covid, the
democratic-communist party could not survive with a solid victory for
Trump. After failing to impeach Trump and his tendency to reduce
Washington D.C. regulatory agencies to “not so important” status,
communist Chinese unleashed germ warfare. That, coupled with a lying
mainstream press, could bring Trump down. With that, some stock market
bearishness can unfold, as the stock market bull and communism will not
coexist.
Mid-term Indicant Status of
the Major Indices
The major stock market indices can be
accessed by clicking this sentence.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the below terms.
Click this sentence to understand the
details on the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for
Explanation1):
7-Red Bulls, 3-Non-Red Bulls
Comment: The seven Red Bulls remain the same as the past three weeks. They
are the S&P500-(Chart),
S&P100-(Chart),
NASDAQ-(Chart),
NASDAQ100-(Chart),
DJIA-(Chart),
DJT-(Chart),
and the DJC65-(Chart).
They are blue-chip intensive and those closest to fascistic relationships
with your elected representatives in congress. The seven Red Bulls are
above red by an average of 8.7%. The other three major indices are below
Red by an average of 8.3%. The three non-Red Bulls are the DJU-(Chart),
the S&P400-(Chart),
and the S&P600-(Chart).
Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for
Explanation2):
7-Blue Bulls, 3-Non-Blue Bulls
Comment: The DJU-(Chart)
remains as a non-Blue Bull for the third consecutive week. The S&P400-(Chart)
and the S&P600-(Chart)
lost Blue Bull status this past week. The seven Blue Bulls are above blue
by 3.7%, while the non-Blue Bulls are below blue by 3.7%. The strength and
weakness are in equilibrium, which never lasts more than one week.
Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for
Explanation3):
0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow
Bears
Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 31.2%. The
absence of Yellow Bears strongly suggest economic depression is not
possible. Stock market dynamics are never wrong in predicting that, but
sometimes predicts a non-existing recession.
Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for
Explanation4):
0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears
Comment: All major indices are above green by an average of 22.0%. Green
curves continue rising and increasingly supportive of the stock market
bull. They are a common point for new bear signals and their continued
rising will minimize risks in being in the stock market.
Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5):
10-Reds Higher than Green;
0-Green Higher Than Red
Comment: The ten major red curves are above the green curve by a healthy
average of 18.6%. This attribute is irrelevant until after the next major
bullish swing when green curves cross above the red curves. However, as
you can see there is room for another 18.6% bullish move before this
unfavorable condition manifests.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6):
9-bullish domains, 1-bearish
domains
Comment: The DJU-(Chart)
has endured bearish force for two consecutive weeks. It is sometimes
contrarian and that is generally a non-bearish dynamic in that money
rotates to the perceived safety of utilities.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to
Vector Pressure7):
0-above pressure, 10-below
pressure
Comment: Bearish support is no longer mild as all ten below pressure is
inspirational to the stock market bear.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8):
10-bullish domains, 0-bearish
domains
Comment: All ten pressure points remain in bullish domains, adding support
for the stock market bull. However, they cannot defend against pestering
by the stock market bear.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9):
0-bullishly directed,
10-bearishly directed
Comment: All ten force vectors have been bearishly directed the past two
weeks. Since they are below pressure, non-bullishness to bearish pestering
is thematic.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10):
0-bullishly directed,
10-bearishly directed
Comment: All ten bearishly directly pressures are
inspirational to the stock market bear, but the bull can counter attack as
long as they remain in bullish domains.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the above terms.
Click this sentence to understand how to
read the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Configured
Condition of Major Indices:
Mid-term Indicant attributes are shifting to a non-bullish thematic with
falling force that is less than pressure. Non-bullishness coincides with
bearish pestering. As long as pressure remains in bullish domains, the
stock market bear cannot completely dominate.
Weekly Buy/Sell Summary –
Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years
Click this sentence for a
graphical summary of what follows in this section.
It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the
webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section.
The below describes the same for the past
five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which
will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along
with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports.
From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific
time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock
Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with
five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002
remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond
the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was
also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008
here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website.
Of course, the website has stock market
history dating back to 1900.
The Mid-term Indicant generated
no-buy
signals and four-sell
signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term
Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 227 of the 316-stocks and
funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up
an average of 287.0% that annualizes to 93.0%. The Mid-term Indicant has
been signaling hold for these 227-stocks and funds for an average of
160.5-weeks. There have been 208-buy signals for stocks and funds so far,
this year.
The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 85-stocks and funds of 316-tracked by
the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 32.8%
since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 124.7-weeks ago.
There have been 239-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.
One year ago, on Sep 13, 2019 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 236-stocks
and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 256.0-weeks. They were up
by an average of 238.6% (annualized at 48.5%). There were 79-avoided
stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by
an average of 27.7% since their respective sell signals an average of
100.7-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were six buy signals and no sell
signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 139-buy signals and
73-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019. Based on the
number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 75.4% in
the market and avoids were 24.6% out of the market.
The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 236-stocks and funds on Sep
14, 2018. They were up 229.1% since their buy signals an average of
233.5-weeks earlier, annualizing at 51.0%. There were 69-avoided stocks
and funds on this weekend since their sell signals an average of
81.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this
weekend in 2018. There had been 64-buy signals and 82-sell signals in 2018
through this weekend of that year. Hold signals were 78.5% in the market
and avoid signals were 21.5% out of the market at this time of year in
2018.
The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 261-stocks and funds of the
321-tracked on Sep 15, 2017. They were up by an average of 186.8%,
annualizing at 43.1% since their respective buy signals an average of
225.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 49-stocks and
funds at that time. They were down an average of 16.5% since their
respective sell signals an average of 96.8-weeks earlier. There was one
buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been
59-year-to-date buy signals and 48-sell signals through this weekend in
2017. This year was profoundly bullish, following the fake stock market
bear on election night in 2016. At this time that year, hold signals were
81.6% in the market and avoid signals were 18.4% out of the market.
The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 279-stocks and funds of the
338-tracked on Sep 9, 2016. They were up by an average of 134.5%,
annualizing at 36.7% since their respective buy signals an average of
190.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 58-stocks and
funds at that time. They were down an
average of 22.6% since their respective sell signals an average of
89.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this
weekend in 2016. There had been a total of 114-buy signals and 80-sell
signals through this weekend in 2016. The stock market endured some
bearish cycles in this year as Hillary Clinton led in the polls. Once she
lost, the stock market bull stampeded to the north with phenomenal
ferocity. Hold signals were 82.5% in the market and avoid signals were
17.5% out of the market.
The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates.
Abandoned securities have no impact to the above
performance statistics
and the
historical report card.
They always represent
status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities
become NLT (no longer traded), their performance
levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT.
There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds
tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or
listed on major stock exchanges.
The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in
2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the
consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and
related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The
primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and
arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that
fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal
behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}.
Click here to see abandoned
securities.
Comments about Mid-term
Indicant Buy and Sell Signals
There is nothing different from last week. “As political meddling in the
U.S. economy continues with more to come, set tight stop losses. As
stated, the past few weeks, the bull-bear battle continues. As long as
that battle persists, the risk/reward ratio remains high. Another way of
saying this is that projected reward/risk ratio remains low, but waning.”
The Indicant is 28.2% out of the market, which is below being out by over
74% in early March 2020, based on the number of avoid-sell signals for
stocks and funds along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. The Mid-term cycle is
now 71.8% in the market.
Clicking this sentence will
take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.
The Short-term Indicant
signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a
buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term
Indicant summaries.
These short-term
models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the
Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to
reject short-term trader nervousness.
The Daily Stock Market Report
reports status for the short-term model.
Economic Conditions –
Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates
Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.
Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not
fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it
does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive
bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and
inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate
the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined
absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than
8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now.
That is a temporary condition. Shifting cultural values and related
ignorance is threatening to the stock market bull. Shortages are beginning
to accumulate.
Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the
reported CPI
remains relatively healthy, while the
PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this
report, Trumponomics and China induced germ warfare with endless
government bailouts will be inflationary and heightened even more with
money supply increasing far above earned money. Despite that eventuality,
inflation remains tame for the time being. The annual inflation rate is
being reported at only 1.0% to date this year. Oil prices, although
recently rising, are down 32.4% from this time one year ago.
The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and
Effective Rate decreased by 100-basis points on Mar 20, 2020, following a
50-basis point cut on weekending Mar 6, 2020. That followed less
aggressive decreases on Aug 2, 2019, Sep 19, 2019, and Nov 2, 2019. These
less aggressive decreases were miniscule to the increases on Dec 23, 2016,
Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018, Sep
30, 2018, and Dec 21, 2018.
High unemployment, germ
warfare from China, and overstepping communistic politicians continue
confronting the stock market bull. So far, the markets are not believing
the threat is sustainable. Gold and other commodities are no longer
skyrocketing, while not yet collapsing.
The 3-Month T-Bill
fell to Yellow Bear status on
weekending Jul 19, 2019.
After falling deeper into
the domain of the Yellow Bear, it started a rebound attempt on weekending
Jan 10, 2020, but fell deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear on
weekending Mar 6, 2020 and rapidly falling even more after that and below
zero on weekending Mar 19, 2020, with a small bounce north of zero on
weekending Apr 3, 2020. It has risen slightly since that craziness that
reflects humanity’s rapidly decreasing IQ. Covid-19 is being blamed, but
the economic lockdown remains as the prime cause with democrats doing that
in attempt to route Trump from office. Their power to them is more
important than your economic or healthy well-being.
The
Euro gained Red
Bull status on weekending Jun 18, 2020 and still holding with that status
and with some recent ambition to maintain Red Bull status.
The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.20 with more aggressive
intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.98 to $0.99. The absence of variation in
its steady decline is impressive. This attempt at retaining Red Bull
status reflects U.S. weakness at massive money printing machines that
trace to a communistic takeover of the U.S. Government.
The
Canadian dollar
fell below Yellow (strongly strengthening) during the week of August 3,
2020. After holding there for a few weeks, it bounced north of Yellow on
weekending September 11, 2020.
Its 2020-mean forecast is
$1.32CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging
from $1.54CA to $1.60CA. Canadians must be printed fake CA$’s like the
fake U.S.$’s.
The
Japanese Yen
continues in a steady downward drift (strengthening). It continues with
minimal variations mostly around the domain of the Yellow Bear (stronger)
and became a Yellow Bear on weekending Aug 7, 2020. This currency has been
and remains very stable since 2015. Its statistical mean forecast is at
110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a
range of 127-132-Yen/U.S. dollar. Its flatness the past several years is
unusual. That helps international stabilization, which is always welcome
by the stock market bull. It also strengthened with the mild rate
reduction by the U.S. Fed on weekending Aug 2, 2019, but with limited
impact on the Sep 19, 2019 rate reduction and continued steadiness with
crazy Coronavirus reactions since early Feb 2020.
The
British Pound
enjoyed Red Bull status on the week of August 3, 2020 for the first time
in over a year. It is not comfortable there and fell below Red on
September 10, 2020. Its statistical mean forecast is at $1.28 with more
aggressive polynomials, projecting around $1.13-$1.19 by Dec 31, 2020.
Since its mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it drifted, bearishly.
The
Bitcoin
lost Red Bull status on weekending Sep 4, 2020, after regaining Red Bull
status on July 30, 2020, after losing Red Bull status on weekending Feb
20, 2020, after regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 13, 2020. As
you can see it is bouncy around the bullish red curve, suggesting
continuing declines in the greenback value. It climbed out Yellow Bear
status on weekending Apr 3, 2020 with massive greenback printing in
overzealous responses to the Coronavirus attack from China.
Gold climbed sharply above
Red on weekending Jun 21, 2019.
It achieved an all-time high
in early August 2020. Its bullishness is being threatened with
congressional consideration of taxing PPP. That would bankrupt many
businesses and thus deploy a deflationary influence on the dollar. That
would depress the value of gold and other commodities. However, its recent
bearishness is miniscule when compared to its meteoric rise to its
prevailing position. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,435/oz. while the more
aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating
$1,101-$1,140/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the
Indicant Daily Stock
Market Report
by tracking
ETF#11-GLD.
Oil finally moved above the
domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020, after falling to
Yellow Bear status on Feb 6, 2020.
It remains just under $40/bbl. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive
polynomial forecast ranges from $20 to $25 with a mean forecast of
$62/bbl.
The
CRB Bridge Futures
abandoned Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020, since
succumbing to Yellow Bear status in February 2020. It is making a strong
attempt to participate in anticipated inflationary pressures.
Mortgage rates fell into
Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.
They remain as Yellow Bears
and deepening so. This remains a great time to finance real estate for
those willing to incur debt during uncertainties from the Coronavirus and
the more damaging sociopathic politicians.
The
consumer price index
and
producer price index
are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest
rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary
threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions
around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong
may offset the weak. The coronavirus had been disrupting that line of
thinking, but nearing its disruptive end.
Mid-term Indicant
Positions – Ten U.S. Indices
There were no new bull signals and
two
new bear signals
this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for eight of the ten major
indices. The eight bulls are up by an average of 10.6% since their bull
signals an average of 10.8-weeks ago and annualizing at 51.5%. The
Mid-term Indicant lost bullish unanimity along the Mid-term Indicant cycle
this past week.
The Mid-term Indicant Dow
Jones Industrial Average
performance is at $62.393-million. That beats buy and hold performance of
$4.147-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The
MTI S&P500
is at $3.587-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.967-million on a Jan 6,
1950 $10,000 investment. The
MTI-NASDAQ
is at $2.664-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.085-million on a Jan
29, 1971 $10,000 investment. The
MTI-Dow Transports
is at $33.407-million. That is better than buy and hold $807,807 since a
$10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy
and hold by 1,504.5%, 182.3%, 245.5%, and 4,135.5%, respectively, for
these indices as of this past week.
There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above
summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit
slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its
near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its
underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.
The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change
during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same
magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the
cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a
week or two for the statistics to settle.
Click here for a tour of the
Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
NASDAQ100 Stocks
Click here to see NASDAQ100
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
NASDAQ 100 Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks
Click here to see Dow 30
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Table of
Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks
Click here to see Dow
Utilities Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones
Utility Stocks Table.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Indicant Selected Stocks
Click here to see Indicant
Select Stock Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
Indicant Selected Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Mutual Funds
Click here to see Mutual Fund
Report Card history.
Click here for the Mid-term
Table of Mutual Funds.
The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for
MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short
on April 3, 2009. It
is down 99.7% since then. Although this is classically a
post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy
and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in
hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election
years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political
movements. Although poll accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to
politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it,
profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now,
even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the stock market bull. Of
course, if that happens, you would not be allowed to benefit from that
opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you. Politburo’s
confiscate. This fund remains too depressed for a coronavirus buy at this
point.
At this point it is better to purchase
related ETF, QID, when you see a buy signal.
Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of
Mutual Funds
Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good
way to mix your investments.
Long Term Indicant
Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average
The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in
November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five
bull/bear cycles since 1920.
The Dow is up 855.7% (annualized at 29.5%) since the Long-term Indicant
signaled bull 1,506-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on
the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable
interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull
signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with
today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up
triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when
considering long-term planning.
Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great
bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009
recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.
The next section is the last
daily stock market report for this past
week.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Archives
{Repeated here are from
the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week.
Click this link to see all the daily
reports from the last 12-months.
Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of
the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the
end of each week}.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Summary
Fri-Sep 11-Most of the major indices are enduring bull-bear battles just
above the near-term green curve, which is a common location for near-term
bear signals. The resistance to falling below green is impressive. The
only two indices falling prey to bearish pestering are the S&P400-(Chart)
and S&P600-(Chart).
Since last Wednesday’s bear signals for those two indices, they continue
falling deeper below green. Those two indices can lead bear markets.
However, the other indices are arguing with the stock market bear’s
ambition to dominate. Contrarian VIX-(Chart)
would normally be wildly bullish with recent stock market behavior has
been relatively tame, suggesting the communistic-democratic party will not
win the upcoming election. It is still down 21.8% since its June 15, 2020
bear signal. Normally, it would be up double digit amounts with recent
stock market bearishness, but it has remained impotent. Of course, the
stock market can be spooked from time to time and with that, do not be
surprised at more volatility during the next few weeks.
Wed-Sep 9-Bullish unanimity was lost on today’s S&P400-(Chart)
and S&P600-(Chart)
bear signals along both the near-term and quick-term cycles. Those two
indices’ post-coronavirus bull legs were not healthy ones like the other
major indices. The reason for the bear signals was due to not eclipsing
the near-term blue curve on today’s strong stock market bullishness and
their vector pressures dropping into bearish domains. As stated yesterday,
most of the other indices are strongly bullish with a high tolerance for
bearish pestering. However, these two smaller cap indices were not that
healthy.
Tue-Sep 8-As stated last Friday, the stock market bull is not strong, but
still intact. That remains true following today’s pestering by the stock
market bear. Contrarian VIX-(Chart)
is being unresponsive to these bear attacks. It, so far, has been unable
to cross above Red. Its passiveness is not consistent with strong bearish
inclinations. Thirteen ETF’s remain as Red Bulls even though all have lost
Blue Bull status. Red Bulls minimize bearish potential. The strength of
the stock market bull since early April 2020 propelled bullish
configurations to enjoy a very high tolerance for bearish pestering
without triggering false alarms. Again, the stock market bull remains
intact.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Details
Click this sentence to see table leading to
the charts.
Index Near-term Report Card
Summary
The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Number of Near-term Bulls: 9 of 12
Duration of Near-term Bulls: 15.7-wks-avg.
Near-term Bull Performance: 16.1%; Annualized Performance: 53.3%.
Number of Near-term Bears: 3 of 12
Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 4.4-wks. avg.
Near-term Bears Average Performance: -8.4%
Near-term Performance
Advantage: May 26-Stock Market Bull
Near-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 1 of 12
Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 2 of 12
Near-term Position Cyclical
Advantage: Jun 30, 2020-Stock Market Bull
Index Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Number of Quick-term Bulls: 9 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 15.5-wks.
Quick-term Bull Performance: 15.1%; Quick-term Annualized Performance:
50.8%
Number of Quick-term Bears: 3 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 4.4-weeks-avg.
Quick-term Bear Performance: -8.4%
Quick-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 8 of 12
Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0 of 12
Quick-term Configured
Advantage: Jun 30, 2020-Quick-term Advantage to Bull
Short-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 0 of 11
Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 1 of 11
Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 6 of 11
Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 4 of
11
Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 1 of 11
Short-term Advantage:
Short-term Stock Market Bear-effective Jun 26, 2020.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Fri-09/11-Again, light volume on flat stock market behavior suggests
reducing stock market interest as the political battle now underway will
invoke irrational stock market volatility due to irrational political
commentary.
Thu-09/10-Light volume on strong stock market bearishness is not
supportive of fundamental bearishness.
Wed-09/09-Reduced volume on strong stock market bullishness suggest
bull-bear battles are between short-term traders.
Tue-09/08-Mild volume on strong stock market bearishness is not sinister.
This configuration suggests bearish pestering as opposed to a long-lasting
bear.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and
Charts
ETF Near-term Report Card
Summary
The Near-term Indicant generated no buy
signals and
three
sell signals.
The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold
signals are up by an average of 15.8% since their buy signals an average
of 15.9-weeks ago, annualizing at 51.7%.
The NTI is avoiding eight-ETFs.
They are down by an average of 12.2% since their sell signals an average
of 6.2-weeks ago.
Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 4
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 6
Near-term Advantage: Stock
Market Bear Sep 11, 2020
ETF Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant generated no
buy
signals and
one
sell signal.
The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 25-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 15.7% since their buy signals an average of 20.0-weeks ago,
annualizing at 40.8%.
The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding six-ETF. They are down by an average
of 17.1% since their sell signals 8.6-weeks ago.
Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 14
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1
Quick-term Advantage:
Quick-term Stock Market Bull Jun 17, 2020
Reverse Tangential
Projections
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and
magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there
is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined
table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The
table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models
and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the NASDAQ Composite Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the S&P500 Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Understanding Content on the Short-term
Indicant Charts
Indicant Conclusion
The stock market is configuring with non-bullish attributes with force
below pressure and with both falling toward bearish domains. The threat is
minimal as all green curves are rising along both the short-term and
mid-term cycles. However, do not be surprised at increased volatility over
the next few weeks leading to the upcoming presidential election.
Click
this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.
Click this sentence to maintain stock
market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes
can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that
continue to enjoy hold signals.
Hyperlinks
To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts,
statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log
in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find
your way back.
Stop Loss Management
This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes.
You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.
The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with
less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new
buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after
buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve
values, depending on your personal preferences.
For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple
digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do
not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to
minimize losses.
Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop
losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive
the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then
quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it
is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of
stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below
prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of
course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most
dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a
combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long
after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow
curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio
values.
For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables.
If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average
the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is
rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is
a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its
value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop
losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow
passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow
price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are
supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece
of a great company or fund.
If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold,
normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is
signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific
buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other
opportunities will emerge.
Indicant Conclusion
Force vector behavior is increasingly unfriendly to the stock market bull
with a majority of the major indices in a strong bearish direction. Force
vectors remain below vector pressure. Until force moves above pressure,
the stock market bull remains absent.
Click this sentence to keep up with the
Short-term Indicant.
Click this sentence to maintain stock
market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes
can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that
continue to enjoy hold signals.
Hyperlinks
To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts,
statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log
in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find
your way back.
Stop Loss Management
This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes.
You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.
The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with
less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new
buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after
buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve
values, depending on your personal preferences.
For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple
digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do
not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to
minimize losses.
Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop
losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive
the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then
quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it
is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of
stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below
prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of
course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most
dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a
combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long
after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow
curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio
values.
For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables.
If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average
the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is
rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is
a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its
value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop
losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow
passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow
price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are
supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece
of a great company or fund.
If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold,
normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is
signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific
buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other
opportunities will emerge.
Happy Investing,
www.indicant.net
09/13/2020
