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May 8, 2022, Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 05, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

  

The Latest Human Folly - Disinformation

The eight Mid-term Indicant bear signals remain supportive of the stock market bear. The Federal Reserve is now attempting to fight inflation with interest rate hikes. That will dampen bullish enthusiasm. The historical pattern is to aggressively increase interest rates. The idea is to dampen the demand for anything, including oil. The current political elite do not like oil. They want oil prices to skyrocket. If the Fed is successful, oil prices can fall, but falling economy will impose an increasingly carless society. Few will have jobs and with that fewer cars will be sold to consume the oil. Either way, the middleclass is about to endure another cycle of its decline in their quality of life. The middleclass pays the bills more than any other class. The really rich and really poor do not pay much tax. Only those in between. So, the policies of the so-called prevailing left demonstrate they are lunatics. They are making the same mistake of the Bolsheviks, where three to four generations live miserable lives and then the system collapses. Why develop a system that collapses? Lunatics have no answer for they are just lunatics, which is increasingly obvious from the pontificating society. Their gibberish is pure lunacy. The human species is in decline. The stock market bull requires increasing human effectiveness.

 

The disinformation campaign, created by the main generators of disinformation. is an attempt to destroy the U.S. Constitution, which provides the freedom to both productive people as well as lunatics. The problem is that the lunatics want the only and final say on any subject. Disinformation is a common element of human beings where 80% of them lie. Rest assured the other 20% are not politicians or their appointees. The stock market bull will not coexist if that 20% are shuttered. The stock market  prefers the lies so it can override with the truth.

 

Here is an example of disinformation from the Whitehouse. They have repeatedly blamed inflation and the related rising price of oil on Vladimir Putin. On November 5, 2020, which was the same week the  presidential election, oil traded at $39.26/Bbl. Speculators knew what the democratic party was going to do and immediately started buying the commodity, shoving the price higher. So, the baseline is set to the week of the 2020 presidential elections. day. Lunatics are predictable and the smart always act on what is predictable.

 

On Feb 17, 2022, one week before Russia attacked Ukraine, oil was trading at $92.03. So, prior to being able to blame Putin, oil increased from $39.26 to $92.03 or by 155.5%.

 

As of last Thursday evening, oil was trading at $109.03. Since Russia attacked Ukraine, oil increased from $92.03 to $109.03 or by 18%. So, before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, oil prices increased 155.5% and only 18% after Putin’s invasion. But, yet the Whitehouse blames Putin. That is disinformation and the same plutocrats are wanting to appoint a czar to regulate disinformation. One little three-pound brain, who is human with an 80% of chance of lying, can decide what is disinformation and what is true. The stock market understood lunacy in the 1930’s.

 

Repeated Whitehouse press conferences blamed Putin for the rise in oil prices. Disinformation is a fancy word developed by those that disinform. Lying is a more appropriate word. The Whitehouse fabricates a lie to hide one of their many policy follies. The reduced the supply of oil, against increasing demand for oil. With that, prices will rise. Capitalists since the beginning have been problem solvers. Pontificators have never solved a problem. They only create them. Nearly all earth’s inhabitants can talk. So, there is nothing special about pontificators. Only a few know how to build an engine or a battery.

 

Let’s pretend we are Adam Schiff for a few moments. Let’s fabricate something similar to Schiff’s ability to do so. Here is how it could go. “In late 2021, President Biden called his pal Vladimir Putin and said, you have the green light to attack Ukraine. I am falling in the polls and need a distraction, plus an addition bump in oil prices so I can blame you, Vladimir. Of course, my good friend, you will not care if Americans are mad at you for rising oil prices. Vladimir responded, “that sounds great, Joe. I had rather you be in the Whitehouse than that crazy Trump or anyone else.”

 

Now, the previous paragraph is disinformation, as there is no proof of that. There are little three-pound brains that contrive that sort of stuff daily. If the author were a Trump associate, contemporary news media would not include the first sentence in this paragraph. They would, however, blast the above paragraph, claiming it to be disinformation.

 

The stock market bull does not mind lies. However, the stock market bull will not coexist when only one group is authorized to lie. The Hegelian Dialectic will in the end survive. The problem is that it can take centuries for a wrong cycle to correct.

 

Last week, the ten major indices were down by an average of only 0.4%. The DJT-(Chart) and DJU-(Chart) were bullish, while the other eight indices were bearish. All of those eight indices are enduring Mid-term Indicant bear signals. Most attributes are increasingly bearish. The Fed raised interest rates 50-basis points. If interest rate hikes are aggressive and/or inflation continues to increase, a 1970’s like stock market can manifest and even worse. That decade endured rising oil prices, high inflation, and increasing interest rates. Mortgage rates will also rise, but still remain low enough for strong home ownership.

 

The primary attribute of interest are force vectors. You want to see them rise. Right now they are falling and vector pressure is in bearish domains. The stock market bull cannot regain traction with those two attributes behaving as they are now. The next section discusses them in detail.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 1-Red Bull, 9-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: The lone Red Bull, DJU-(Chart), is above Red by 5.6%.  The stock market bull is no longer dominant. However, just one Red Bull prevents the stock market bear from absolute domination.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 0-Blue Bulls, 10-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The absence of Blue Bulls is maximal non-bullishness. The bear is no longer enduring one of the major forces of resistance. The stock market bear can attack without much resistance.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 22.6%. The absence of Yellow Bears strongly suggest economic depression is not possible now. Stock market dynamics are never wrong in predicting that, but sometimes predicts a non-existing recession. Recession or not, the Indicant’s focus is to avoid bears. It will not wait for a 22.6% drop before signaling bear. Rest assured a future Yellow Bear lurks, but not along the mid-term horizon at this time. Also, keep in mind, severe stock market bears can drop 50.0% in a matter of weeks, while a stock market bull’s 50% increase is much slower. Keep in mind a 50% drop requires a 100% increase to displace the 50% drop.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 8-Green Bears, 2-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: The two non-Green Bears are above green by 5.8%. The eight Green Bears are below green by 3.6%. The two non-green bears are the DJU-(Chart) and DJT-(Chart).

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 10-Red Higher than Green; 0-Green Higher Than Red

              Comment: The mix here is irrelevant at this point with all red curves above green curves. The over-heating indicator expired and awaiting a new cycle of overheating. That will be quite some time from now. Most likely several years from now. Much depends on elections and removal of the nonsensicality of the newly found movement of the political elite as the masters of delineating disinformation from fact. On the contrary they are the masters of disinformation. It is amazing how evil introduces itself as some sort of master of this and that, while all they are simply pontificators who has normal disdain from contrarian pontificators. Neither group is good. The only good from humanity’s contribution are from within the three meaningful groups of economic sectors. That is manufacturing, extraction, and agriculture.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 1-bullish domains, 9-bearish domains

              Comment:  This supports the stock market bear. The lone bullishly positioned force vector belongs to the DJU-(Chart).

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 0-above pressure, 10-below pressure

              Comment: This supports the stock market bear.

           

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 1-bullish domains, 9-bearish domains

              Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear. The lone bullishly positioned vector pressure belongs to the DJU-(Chart).

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 1-bullishly directed, 9-bearishly directed

              Comment: This shifted violently in favor of the stock market bear nine weeks ago. After supporting the stock market bull the next six weeks, the shift four weeks ago continues supporting the stock market bear and increasingly so the past several weeks. The DJT-( Chart) penetrated bullish domains this past week.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 0-bullishly directed, 10-bearishly directed

            Comment: This is now supporting the stock market bear.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Configurations remain supportive for the stock market bear.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. The website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and 17- sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 198 of the 315-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 350.5% that annualizes to 87.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 198-stocks and funds for an average of 208.1-weeks. There have been 16      -buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, hold signals are 62.9% in the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 100-stocks and funds of 315-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 20.3% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 102.3-weeks ago. There have been 71-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, avoid signals are 37.1% out of the market.

 

One year ago, on May 7, 2021, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 273-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 137.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 284.8%, annualizing at 107.3%. There were 40-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of 37.7% since their sell signals an average of 197.6-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and no sell signals at this time of year in 2021.  There had been 35-buy signals and 12-sell signals throughout the year on this weekend in 2021. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 87.3% in the market and avoids were 12.7% out of the market.

 

Two years ago, on May 8, 2020, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 179-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 159.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 245.3%, annualizing at 80.0%. There were 135-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of 27.0% since their sell signals an average of 77.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals at this time of year in 2020.  There had been 105-buy signals and 182-sell signals through this weekend in 2020. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 57.0% in the market and avoids were 43.0% out of the market. The post Covid Bull was well on its way to dominate again after March 2020.

 

Three years ago, on May 10, 2019, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 239-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 237.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 215.0% (annualized at 47.2%). There were 78-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 34.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 109.9-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and four sell signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 78-buy signals and 17-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 74.5% in the market and avoids were 25.5% out of the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 242 stocks and funds on May 4, 2018. They were up 221.1% since their buy signals an average of 257.8-weeks earlier, annualizing at 44.6%. There were 78-avoided stocks and funds on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 74.1-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2018. There had been 24-buy signals and 52-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year. Hold signals were 75.7% in the market and avoid signals were 24.3% out of the market at this time of year in 2018.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Signaling buy and sell has been minimal for several months due to a very strong bull cycle beginning in April 2020-Covid. That bull cycle was with large breadth. The few bottom dwellers are not yet configuring with bullish attributes. Bottom dweller buy signals have been muffled as the stock market bull lost momentum the past few months. The 2020-21 bull cycle is unprecedented with the strategic implication of strongly increasing capitalism. It may be followed by a stronger bear cycle. Capitalists increase the quality of life. Communist and socialists decrease it. Those latter two, if unchecked, result in no meaningful stock market. All goes to zero. So far, capitalism continues to be more influential, but being challenged by prevailing political power. Converging are high inflation and a shrinking economy.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETFs enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. Control freaks in political power have 100% potential to create economic and social calamity with their desired result of a police state. That is why they encourage asset destruction. That would give them absolute power. That is never good for anyone but them.

 

 Reported CPI is no longer healthy. The PPI, as reported, is now penetrating the stock market bull and the economy. The annual inflation rate is reported at 8.5%. Oil prices are up 68.2% from this time one year ago. Oil is up by $73.01/BBL (+202.7%) since Biden’s so-called election.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased 25-basis points on weekending Mar 18, 2022. That is the first-rate change since the 100-basis points decrease two years earlier on Mar 20, 2020.   Economic damage inflicted by the democratic party, germ warfare from their China pals, and other overstepping U.S. communistic politicians, and the self-proclaimed elites are now starting to manifest. The destination to a decreased quality of life has begun.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill shifted to Red Bull status on weekending Jan 28, 2022, after about two and a half years of enduring Yellow Bear status since Jul 19, 2019.  Although still near zero, the T-Bill has risen a significant amount the past several weeks to the delight of the stock market bear. That behavior is now more visible on the chart as interest rates continue escaping the gravity of zero in a race to the clouds of stupidity.

           

The Euro dropped to Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 22, 2021, after losing Red Bull status on weekending Jul 31, 2021.  It continues residence in the domain of the Yellow Bear. The 2024-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.88 to $0.94.

 

The Canadian dollar bounced above Yellow (weakening) during the week of July 17, 2021. That was the first bounce above Yellow since Sep 21, 2020. It surged above Red (additional weakening) during the week of Dec 14, 2021, but fell below Red the very next week and remaining in the zone of neutrality. Its 2024-mean forecast is $1.29CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.81CA to $1.88CA.

 

The Japanese Yen continues weakening since crossing above Red on Apr 2, 2021. Its narrow min-max points from 2017 through mid-2021 remains impressive with that tightness continuing through September 2021, when some additional weakening occurred. It now appears to be escaping that tight trading range from 2017 through mid-2021. It weakened severely the week of Apr 4, 2022, and now escaping its tight trading range. Its statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 151-155-Yen/U.S. dollar. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. presidential election but has been holding above Red the past several weeks (weakening).

 

The British Pound lost Red Bull status in late July 2021 but bouncy around Red until weekending Dec 3, 2021, where it lost commitment to retaining Red Bull status. It fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Dec 17, 2021, regaining Red Bull status, briefly, and again a Yellow Bear as of Mar 11, 2022 and falling further below Yellow. Its statistical mean forecast is at $1.33 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.97-$1.00 by Dec 2024. The last bearish cycle was deeper than the prior one suggesting a trend reversal favoring its bearishness.

 

The Bitcoin fell below $50,000-U.S. on weekending Dec 10, 2021 for the first time in several weeks. A few weeks after that, it bounced back above $50,000 with the threat of rising inflation exceeding that of the threat of rising interest rates. It has been comfortable around $40,000 for several months.

                       

Gold endured Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 2, 2021 and rejected that on weekending Apr 23, 2021.  It finally abandoned an absence of bullish or bearish commitment and now a solid Red Bull. The Dec 2024-mean forecast is $1,850/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a Dec 2024 value approximating $1,240-$1,310/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after moving above the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020. It had been bouncy around $40/bbl. for several weeks but became highly bullish since Biden’s so-called election. The Dec 2024-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast remains below zero with the statistical mean forecast of $60/bbl. Saudi Royalty is very pleased with their new low IQ puppets in D.C. The Russians are also delighted with an interpretation they can retry conquering the world. There is some jawboning where the Royalty is being told to lower prices or the D.C. puppets will be tossed out.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after abandoning Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020. That correlated well with a dumb populace and vote cheaters supporting the communistic takeover attempt of the U.S. It is now aggressively contributing to inflation with it regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. election and has continued doing so with no sign of any countermeasures from the source of the inflationary problem; the democratic party, news media, lunatic masses in their deep state of tabula rasa, and now a little Russian guy attempting to conquer other nations. It continues being bullish and thus inflationary.

 

Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021, after falling into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  As of weekending Dec 3, 2021, they were weak Red Bulls, but now increasingly militant to future home buyers. They continue showing signs of passing a bottom. This no longer remains a great time to finance real estate. However, it is still a good time, as interest rates will be triple prevailing levels before 2024.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are now computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals, and no new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for two of the ten major indices. The two bulls are up by an average of 32.9% since their bull signals an average of 76.0-weeks ago and annualizing at 22.5%. The eight bears are down by an average of 3.1% since their bear signals one week ago.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $72.1 million. That beats buy and hold performance of $4.8 million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $4.43 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.77 million on a Jan 6, 1950, $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.87 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.21 million on a Jan 29, 1971, $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $44.0-million. That is better than buy and hold $1.06 million since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,499.6%, 250.9%, 235.2%, and 4,135.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transport index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.9% since then. Although this is classically presidential post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2021 as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those four presidential post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical lows in the 2008/9 recession and have persisted since then and thus giving rise to equity attractiveness to investors. Recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. The return of politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the economy and the corrupt election of the democratic (communist) party. Keep in mind, politburos confiscate. They are already confiscating your freedom. Conditions are mounting favoring strong profit potential in this economic climate, despite the newly forming political threat by the communistic movement now underway with the guise of climate change, racism, China virus-Covid rules, etc. Sociopathic political leadership is more common than not throughout recorded history. The presidential post-election year of 2021 successfully argued against historical trends of stock market bearishness. Low interest rates continue being credited with this and should be referred to as the Bernanke/Trump bull. Rest assured lying politicians take credit. And, as always, a populace believing the lies will eventually pay the price. Russia’s desire to dominate others is a new opportunity for this fund, as long as the dominated are not Americans. In that case, nothing has value, including gold.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 1,036.5%, annualized at 33.9% since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,592-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

May 6-The stock market bear continues its militancy along the short-term cycle. Most non-contrarian ETF’s and stock market indices are enduring bear/sell signals along both the near-term and quick-term cycles. Fundamentally and technically, the stock market bull has no reason to renew itself.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 2 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 5.5-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 4.5%; Annualized Performance: 42.1%

Number of Near-term Bears: 10 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 2.2-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -3.1% 

Near-term Performance Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock Market Bear

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 0 of 11 

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 2 of 11

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock Market Bear

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and two new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 2 of 12 (Quick-term Bullish Unanimity)

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 17.5-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 9.2%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 27.4%.

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 2 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 2.0-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -2.7%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 3 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term Advantage to Bear

                                   

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses          

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 1 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 9 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 4 of 11

 

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term Advantage to Bear

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

May 6-Both the NYSE and NASDAQ volume indicators were higher than recent averages last week on mild stock market bearishness, but with profound volatility. That favors continuing stock market bearishness.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

There were no buy signals and no-sell signals along the near-term cycle.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for five ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 14.4% since their buy signals an average of 18.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 41.6%.

 

The NTI is avoiding 27-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 6.1% since their sell signals an average of 4.9-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 0

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 24

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bear as of Apr 22, 2022

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for eleven ETF’s. They are up by an average of 21.5% since their buy signals an average of 37.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 29.7%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 21-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 7.5% since their sell signals 6.3-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 0

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 22

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull Mar 25, 2022

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

The eight Mid-term Indicant bear signals remain supportive of the stock market bear. The Federal Reserve is now attempting to fight inflation with interest rate hikes. That will dampen bullish enthusiasm. The disinformation war created by the generators of disinformation is an attempt to destroy the U.S. Constitution. Disinformation is a common element of human beings where 80% of them lie. Rest assured the 20% are not politicians or their appointees. The stock market bull will not coexist. It prefers the lies so it can override with the truth.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page on the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

05/08/2022

 

 

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