Feb 10, 2019 Indicant Weekly Stock Market
Report
Volume 02,
Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report
Observations
of Physical Objects – Great vs. Evil
Genius is required to
produce humanmade objects. Zero talent is required to destroy humanmade
objects. Some humanmade objects are designed for the intended purpose of
destroying other humanmade objects, such as military ordnance. Leaders of
countries with significant amounts of ordnance have deployed that ordnance
to destroy their enemy’s ordnance and sometimes invoke ethnic cleansing
and other forms of genocide. Those leaders did not design or manufacture
those products. They were not smart enough to do that. They were orators,
only, who had the ability to have dumb people listen to them and support
them.
Orators significantly
outnumber geniuses who design and manufacture humanmade objects. Orators
only interaction with anything is within the easy abstract world of
thought. Abstracts offer zero economic value. Orators do not contribute
one penny to the economy. Only those that grow food and other agricultural
products, those that manufacture products, and those that extract minerals
and commodities create economic wealth. That wealth directly leads to an
improved quality of life, except when the masses allow themselves to be
led and an orator who has the propensity to be destructive.
Countries, societies,
religious groups, etc. have been at war with each other throughout the
millennia. Only time and a consolidation of the multitude of cultures into
one culture will minimize humanity’s need for war. If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
orations manifest into reality, here is what will happen. Manufacturing
and extraction would stop. Agriculture products would not be distributed,
as only the farmers could eat. After that, a massive depression would
start. Social chaos would ensue. Martial law would be imposed, which is
any politicians real desire. Those among the masses that survived such a
scenario, would be relocated into labor camps to feed the modern-day
democratic party.
Shortly after all that,
foreign governments with evil leadership would easily conquer a country
without protect assets. To ease that effort, your guns will need to be ceased.
The economic stupidity of
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a former bar tender, most likely serving and
listening to a customer base of drunken losers, reflects the stupidity of
those who elected her. Keep in mind, those who get into politics, such as
Adolph Hitler, Bernie Sanders, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have orated
their entire lives and not one time produced not even one penny to the
economy. Their absence from being productive people is the source of their
ignorance. An increasing majority of the world’s population does not
engage in manufacturing, agriculture, or extraction. That majority is
growing and becoming dumber. And they vote. Eventually, economic imbeciles
rise to power by only orating and tricking idiots to listen to them.
The stock market bull is
always listening and constantly assessing the possibility of the imbeciles
having political success. If the stock market bull believes there will be
political success among the economic illiterates, it will abdicate any
interest in being dominant.
The economy remains
strong, but the stock market bull is always listening to all orations. It
has an infinite memory and a profound ability to project the future.
Muzzling dumbness has never been easy. There have been times when the dumb
have been successful in muzzling the smart. The stock market bull does not
want to see that. The dumb do not produce products or services of value.
Currently, the stock
market is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s behavior, as opposed to
political orations. The Fed continues biasing toward passivity, as they
reacted favorably to slow the wrath of the stock market bear late last
year.
However, despite the level
of ignorance, history clearly shows that the populace is capable of
supporting stupidity. Nature always punishes stupidity, but that process
is always very slow, as the majority of the stupid must starve into a
minority. That process has occurred many times in the past and highly
likely to occur again with the likes of idiots, such as Bernie Sanders and
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Do not blame them; they are simply sick people.
The blame has to be pointed at those who support them.
The next section
highlights some stability in the capital markets, but with a mild decrease
in support of the stock market bull
Mid-term
Indicant Status of the Major Indices
The major stock market indices can be
accessed by clicking this sentence.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the below terms.
Click this sentence to understand the
details on the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for
Explanation1):
2-Red
Bulls, 8-Non-Red Bulls
Comment: The eight non-Red Bulls are below Red the same as
last week by 2.5%. The two Red Bulls, DJIA-(Chart)
and NASDAQ100-(Chart)
are above Red by an average of 0.7%, which is also the same as last week.
The two Red Bulls are weak ones and they remain in an undesirable
minority.
Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls- Click for
Explanation2):
8-Blue Bulls, 2-Non-Blue Bulls
Comment: The DJT-(Chart)
lost its Blue Bull status this past week, joining the prior week’s
S&P600’s lone non Blue Bull-(Chart).
The DJT’s loss is a bit discerning.
Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for
Explanation3):
0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow
Bears
Comment: Fortunately, none of
the major indices are Yellow Bears. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires
an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 19.6% from current
position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in
gaining long-term dominance and the economy is not being threatened. The
gap between prevailing prices and the Yellow Bear is no longer relevant,
due to the depth of vector pressure.
Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for
Explanation4):
0-Green Bear, 10-Non-Green Bears
Comment: The absence of Green
Bears reduces stock market bear potential. All ten major indices are above
Green by an average of 7.1% percent.
Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5):
10-Reds Higher than Green;
0-Greens Higher Than Red
Comment: This attribute had
been identifying an overheated bull market for several months and in the
process of resetting. The DJT-(Chart)
and the DJU-(Chart)
have not enjoyed Green crossing above Red in the current bull cycle.
Overall, Red is above Green by an average of 9.2%. Once Green falls below
Red, stock market normalcy should return based on prevailing and projected
economic fundamentals, regardless if bearish or bullish. It would be great
if the magnitude of this bear would only be another 9.2% drop. Recent
bullishness and newly bullish configurations may impose a delay to this
bearish potential.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6):
9-bullish domains, 1-bearish
domains
Comment: DJU-(Chart)
force vector dipped into bearish domains on weekending Dec 28, 2018. It
continues moving in a bullish direction and nearing bullish domains. The
other nine major index force vectors moved into bullish domains the past
four weeks, offering the stock market bull a mild advantage.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to
Vector Pressure7):
10-above pressure, 0-below
pressure
Comment: The stock market
bear continues facing formidable resistance by the stock market bull with
this attribute.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8):
9-bullish domains, 1-bearish
domains
Comment: All but one are in
bullish domains, offering increasing support for the stock market bull.
This will remain bullish as long as force vectors do not shift back into a
bearish direction.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9):
9-bullish, 1-bearish
Comment: The S&P600’s force
vector shifted back into a bearish direction, offering the stock market
bear some mild hope of regaining dominance.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10):
10-bullish, 0-bearish
Comment: This continues shifting in favor of the stock market
bull, but until they cross into bullish domains, the stock market bear has
not yet hibernated.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the above terms.
Click this sentence to understand how to
read the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Configured
Condition of Major Indices:
Force vectors and vector pressure are the predominant attributes to
monitor. They are shifting in favor of the stock market bull, but until
vector pressure gets back into bullish domains, the stock market bull
cannot fund sustainability.
Whipsawed –
Review of Wild Swings Last Week
This section highlights last
week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds
tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the
NASDAQ100- Stocks,
the
Indicant Selected Stocks
(mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the
Dow Jones 30-Stocks
(DJIA), the
Dow Utilities
(DJU) and
Mutual Funds(MF).
The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major
indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.
Mattel, NAS#33-MAT-(Chart),
was up 24.6% as last week’s most bullish NASDAQ100 stock. Despite that
bullishness it is down 41.0% since the Indicant’s Feb 2017 sell signal.
Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear, as political correctness disallows
girls and boys to be what they are. Henry Schein, NAS#80-HSIC-(Chart),
was down 23.4% last week, as the most bearish NASDAQ100 stock. It,
however, is up 99.5% since the Indicant’s Oct 2010 buy signal. Although
this stock is no longer a Red Bull, continued holding to its very nice
long-term bullish trend remains safe. However, if it succumbs to the
Yellow Bear with unfavorable force and pressure, it will endure a sell
signal. All trends eventually reverse.
Electronic Art, ISTK#71-EA-(Chart),
was up 7.0% as the most bullish stock in this group of stocks. It is also
up 425.3% since the Indicant’s Mar 2013 buy signal. This stock was a
Yellow Bear without enduring a sell signal a few weeks due to its rising
force vector at that time. It is no longer a Yellow Bear as last week’s
bullish behavior escaped that condition. Fuel Cell, ISTK#27-FCEL-(Chart),
was down 12.7% last week, as the most bearish stock in this group. It is
also down 97.8% since the Indicant’s Dec 2014 sell signal. Continue
avoiding this Yellow Bear.
Boeing, DJIA#09-BA-(Chart),
was up 4.5% as the most bullish Dow30 stock. It is also up 526.9% since
the Indicant’s Oct 2011 buy signal. Continue holding this Red Bull.
General Electric, DJIA#02-GE-(Chart),
was down 3.7% last week as the most bearish Dow30 stock. It is also down
62.5% since the Indicant’s Jul 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this
Yellow Bear.
PG&E, DJU#07-PCG-(Chart),
was up 8.6% as last week’s most bullish Dow Utility stock. Despite, this
stock is down 73.4% since the Indicant’s Dec 2017 sell signal. Continue
avoiding this Yellow Bear, which has been the case well before the CA
fires a few weeks ago. Williams Co, DJU#11-WMB-(Chart),
was down 2.0% last week, as the most bearish Dow Utility stock. It is up
0.7% since the Indicant’s Oct 2018 sell signal. This stock’s Red and
Yellow curves are both trending bearishly. Continue avoiding this stock.
Fidelity Defense and Aerospace, MF#36-FSDAX-(Chart),
was up 3.3% last week, as the most bullish mutual fund. It is also up
296.0% since the Indicant’s Dec 2009 buy signal. This fund is rebounding
sharply following a very sharp drop late last year. Continue holding until
you see a sell signal. Fidelity Natural Gas, MF#52-FSNGX-(Chart),
was down 4.8% last week, as the most bearish mutual fund. This fund is
also down 12.4% since the Indicant’s Nov 2018 sell signal. Continue
avoiding this Yellow Bear.
Weekly
Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years
Click this sentence for a
graphical summary of what follows in this section.
It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the
webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section.
The below describes the same for the past
five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which
will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along
with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports.
From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific
time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock
Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with
five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002
remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond
the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was
also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008
here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website.
The Mid-term Indicant generated
no
buy signals and
no
sell signals this weekend. Clicking this
sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are
displayed.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 190 of the 321-stocks and
funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up
an average of 235.9% that annualizes to 46.1%. The Mid-term Indicant has
been signaling hold for these 173-stocks and funds for an average of
266.1-weeks. There have been 18-buy signals for stocks and funds so far,
this year.
The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 131-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by
the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 17.9%
since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 70.2-weeks ago.
There have been four-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.
One year ago, on Feb 9, 2018 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 261-stocks
and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 243.6-weeks. They were up
by an average of 192.5% (annualized at 41.1%). There were 38-avoided
stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by
an average of 37.0% since their respective sell signals an average of
154.4-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were no buy signals and 22-sell
signal on this weekend in 2018. There had been 15-buy signals and 25-sell
signals for the year through this weekend in 2018.
The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 260-stocks on Feb 3, 2017.
They were up 160.7% since their buy signals an average of 195.4-weeks
earlier, annualizing at 42.8%. There were 41-avoided stocks on this
weekend since their sell signals an average of 84.2-weeks earlier. There
was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had
been 14-buy signals and two sell signals through this weekend in 2017.
The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 191-stocks and funds of the
338-tracked on Feb 12, 2016. They were up by an average of 149.5%,
annualizing at 33.0%, since their respective buy signals an average of
235.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 146-stocks and
funds at that time. They were down an average of 21.2% since their
respective sell signals an average of 51.2-weeks earlier. There were no
buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2016. There had been
three-year-to-date buy signals and 58-sell signals through this weekend in
2016.
The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 289-stocks and funds of the
338-tracked on Feb 6, 2015. They were up by an average of 142.7%,
annualizing at 38.2%, since their respective buy signals an average of
194.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 47-stocks and
funds at that time. They were down an average of 13.9% since their
respective sell signals an average of 60.7-weeks earlier. There was one
buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2015. There had been a
total of one-buy signal and eleven-sell signals through this weekend in
2015.
There were 311-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by
the Mid-term Indicant on Feb 7, 2014 since their buy signals an average of
148.0-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 106.5% (annualized at
27.4%). There were 25-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were
down by an average of 23.5% from their respective sell signals an average
of 73.3-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and two sell signals on
this weekend in 2014. There had been one buy signal and eight sell signals
through this weekend in 2014.
The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates.
Abandoned securities have no impact to the above
performance statistics
and the
historical report card.
They always represent
status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities
become NLT (no longer traded), their performance
levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT.
There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds
tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or
listed on major stock exchanges.
The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in
2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the
consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and
related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The
primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and
arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that
fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal
behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}.
Click here to see abandoned
securities.
Comments
about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals
If the stock market bear has indeed hibernated, the relatively large
numbers of avoided stocks and funds will provide more opportunities for
buying since 2009, where nearly all stocks and funds were avoided early
that year. Although there are not as many avoided stocks and funds being
avoided as in early 2009, there are still plenty of opportunities
Clicking this sentence will
take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.
The Short-term Indicant
signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a
buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term
Indicant summaries.
These short-term
models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the
Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to
reject short-term trader nervousness.
The Daily Stock Market Report
reports status for the short-term model.
The Indicant
Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend
The Dow is up 244.6% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The
NASDAQ is up 555.1% and the S&P500 is up 248.6% since then. The small cap
index, S&P600, is up 447.4% since October 9, 2002.
The NASDAQ was bullish by 3.7% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential
post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent
with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you
recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most
part of 2001.
The NASDAQ was down 6.7% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term
election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where
the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear
cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical
standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over
80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.
The NASDAQ was down 2.9% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential
pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with
historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in
March of that year. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 2.9% in the
meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the
NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was
congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of
magnitude standards.
It was down 4.1% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was
consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during
post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent
year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness.
Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some
of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried
through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride,
following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.
In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 2.8% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by
9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term
election year.
The NASDAQ was up 3.0% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year
up by 9.8%. This week was extraordinarily bearish in that year, as the
stock market bear had already been dominating since July of that year. The
stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took
control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as
opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added
depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed.
Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.
The NASDAQ was down by 13.1% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008
down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of
historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the
most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832.
The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in
1896.
It was up 0.9% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by
43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that
year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31,
2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals
than the 2009 bull market.
Much of the 2009 bull market
correlated well with declining political popularity.
The NASDAQ was down 6.3% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up
by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness;
especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was
explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious
the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.
It was up 5.4% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished
2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished
up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by
5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential
pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of
communism confused the stock market.
The NASDAQ was up 11.9% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by
15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year.
One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the
re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency
invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic
turmoil.
It was up 5.8% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish
presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary
stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The
Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and
diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year
bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and
2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal
levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were
repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound
stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a
majority in both the house and senate.
The NASDAQ was down 1.2% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though
starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term
bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders
countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies
political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle
model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use
an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the
law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional
authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding
fathers. Human kind will regret it but will be too stupid to recognize
their culpability in their economic decline.
.
The NASDAQ was down 0.2% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by
5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the
first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.
The NASDAQ was down 14.5% on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting
Hillary Clinton as the “obvious” president elect. It finished 2016 up by
7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due,
primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary
Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.
The NASDAQ was up 5.6% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that
presidential post-election year up by 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year
as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the
economy is causation to that profound bullishness and especially so with
rising interest rates.
The NASDAQ was down 1.8% on this weekend in the 2018-presidential mid-term
election year. The Blue Wave was reported as coming most of that year.
With that “communistic” threat, the stock market bull was absent most of
the year with a bearish conclusion. The NASDAQ closed down by 3.9%, while
the S&P500 was down 6.2% and the Dow down 5.6% for 2018.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 7.6% this year. The S&P500 is up
8.0% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 10.0% this year. The S&P600 is up
10.6% this year. The Dow Transports is up 11.0% and Dow Utilities is up
3.8% this year. The S&P400 is up 11.4% this year.
The Dow is up 77.2% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007.
The NASDAQ is up 155.3% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The
S&P500 is up 73.0% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide
with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early
2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly
elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and
the dangerous practice of fascism.
All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities
was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took
about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan
2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 33.9%.
The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 44.6%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed
above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly
thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also
fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above
its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is above that peak
by 46.9%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013.
It is now above that peak by 42.9%. Those paltry gains have not kept up
with inflation. With that consideration they are still down since their
2000-peaks.
Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009,
tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be
appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential
projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently,
March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March
2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle.
When prices fall below
reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.
The Dow is up 283.5% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot
date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 475.3% and the
S&P500 is up 300.3% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 414.5%
since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful,
but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed
by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be
held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases
during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive, but recent rate
hikes offer some arguments against being passive.
The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when
congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing”
government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic
contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the
damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during
do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by
politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a
republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two
bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less
disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed
prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some
success in deregulation, which is always bullish, but democrats are about
to take over the U.S. House of Representatives and the last time that
happened in 2007 the stock market peaked ahead of its 2008-bearish
behavior.
Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency,
Interest Rates
Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.
Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not
fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it
does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive
bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and
inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate
the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined
absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than
8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now.
That is a temporary condition.
Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the
reported CPI
remains relatively healthy, while the
PPI
remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report,
Trumponomics will be inflationary. Despite that eventuality, inflation
remains tame for the time being. Recently reported CPI was deflationary,
due in part, to falling oil prices. As of Jan 3, 2019, House Democrats
will stifle the Trump agenda, but the economic elements may not be. The
markets anticipated the Pelosi promotion with the VIX bull signal in late
Oct 2018.
The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and
Effective Rate increased another 25-basis point on week-ending Dec 21,
2018. That followed similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar
17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018 and Sep
30, 2018. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after
Trump’s election, although pretty much to the Bernanke plans originating
in 2008-09. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near
zero projections.
The Fed remains
sensitive to political pressure. The annual inflation rate is being
reported with only 1.9% to date this year. Oil prices are down 17.8% from
this time a year ago, which has a very high correlation to inflation.
There is more about oil later.
The 3-Month T-Bill remains
low
and non-threatening to the
stock market bull at 2.38%. It’s gallop to the north remains bit slower
than the policy hikes. There is a future point where its rise will punish
the stock market bull. If the Fed slows future rate hikes and OPEC has
their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be
unfriendly to the stock market bull. The opposite of all that remains in
effect. The Fed
was dovish on the week of Jan 25, 2019, fostering the arousal of the stock
market bull.
Fortunately, oil prices remain in decline, but bouncing north four weeks
ago and holding steady the past three weeks. Production cuts are taking
effect and with that the Fed will more likely become aroused for more
aggression in rate hikes.
The
Euro
fell into Yellow Bear status
on week-ending Jun 15, 2018. It continues attempting to escape the wrath
of the Yellow Bear. The prevailing bearish trend started the enjoyment of
shifting bullishly for the first time in nine years in early March 2018
like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of
its long-term bearish trend. Again, that is occurring with both Red and
Yellow in a bearish slope. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more
aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.70.
The
Canadian dollar
fell below the zone of
neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned
to the neutral zone in late October 2017, while moving above (weakening)
Red again on Dec 6, 2018 and recently displaying discomfort at above Red.
Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.31CA with projected polynomials forecasting
much weaker values ranging from $1.80CA to $1.87CA.
There needs to be a quality check on the Yen from data sources. The
Japanese Yen
statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the
aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 148-159-Yen/U.S. dollar.
It shifted from the zone of neutrality to strengthening in late Feb 2018
and continues residence there with some recent steadying with minimal
vacillations around Red (weakening). It remains in a tight trading zone,
while weakening just above Red on weekending Sep 30, 2018 and again on Dec
6, 2018. It strengthens when falling and it fell to Yellow on weekending
Jan 25, 2019. Trade tensions remain influential on international
exchanges. Despite that, international currencies are remaining stable
with the yen very stable since early 2016.
British Pound
returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote.
However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into
Red Bull status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening
even against this weak currency at that time. It lost Red Bull status on
week-ending May 11, 2018 by falling into the zone of neutrality and then
returning to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 7, 2018. It continues to
resist deepening its Yellow Bear status, but a Yellow Bear nonetheless.
Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.27 with more aggressive
polynomials, projecting around $0.87-$0.91 by Dec 31, 2020. It falling to
Yellow Bear status and not yet recovering suggests its long-term bearish
cycle will not be overcome on the short-term horizon. Recent British
elections have not yet destabilized the pound.
The
Bitcoin
toppled $16,000 on most exchanges in late 2017 in skyrocketing fashion. It
has weakened since then. It lost Red Bull status in late Mar/early Apr
2018 and finally fell into Yellow Bear status on Dec 7, 2018 at below
$4,000. It has been stable for the past several months but with a steady
bearish drift.
Gold climbed out of Yellow
Bear status on weekending Dec 21, 2018 on strong bearishness in the equity
markets and now enjoying Red Bull status.
That suggests added fear on
both the political and inflationary fronts with Bernie Sanders-like
comments from communistic democrats that everything is free. Gold reflects
a growing fear of too many stupid people buying into that lunacy. At some
point, rising rates will strengthen the dollar, influencing gold’s
bearishness. That remains as the current theme but being challenged a bit
with potential weakening of the U.S. dollar. The 2020-mean forecast is
$1,297/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020
value approximating $770-$802/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of
this on the
Indicant Daily Stock
Market Report
by tracking
ETF#11-GLD.
Oil returned to Red Bull
status on Oct 5, 201 7, but fell below Red on Oct 25, 2018 and quickly
dropped to Yellow Bear status on weekending Nov 17, 2018.
The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to
$0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The
2020-statistical mean forecast is at $52/bbl. This forecast continues to
avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Saudi Royalty
is most likely targeting $90/BBL for the time being but lost a little
ground on that the past four weeks. They have now had to resort to
production cuts.
The
CRB Bridge Futures
fell into Yellow Bear status on Nov 23, 2018 and deepening that status,
while stabilizing the past four weeks. It continues reflecting deflation.
The 2020-mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials
are forecasting zero by 2020.
Mortgage rates lost Red Bull
status on weekending Jan 4, 2019 after abandoning Yellow Bear status on
Nov 3, 2016 with a
sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not for
those desiring home ownerships. They are now approaching Yellow Bear
status, but most likely a temporary dip.
The
consumer price index
and
producer price index
are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest
rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary
threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions
around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong
may offset the weak.
Fear Metrics:
Economics and Terrorism
Vanguard Gold and Precious
Metals (VGPMX) - #19
was up 162.2% from its
April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on
October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010
but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around
15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27,
2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell
signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was
down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal
on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up
10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017.
This fund has remained flat to mildly bearish since then, enduing a sell
signal on Jun 15, 2018 after falling to Yellow Bear status. It is down
21.6% since that sell signal.
Fidelity Gold Fund #28
also endured a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 0.3% since that
sell signal.
Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX,
endured a sell signal on Nov 23, 2018. It is down 3.1% since then.
Fidelity Energy Services #40,
FSESX, endured a sell
signal on Oct 19, 2018. It is down 30.0% since then.
State Street Research Global
#9, SSGRX, endured
a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 11.4% since that sell signal.
Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX,
endured a sell signal
on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 12.0% since that sell signal.
The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for
ETF#03 – Energy and Natural
Resources on Oct
11, 2018. It is down 12.3% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled
sell on Oct 25, 2018. It is down 4.7% since then.
The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for
GLD-ETF#11-Gold
on Dec 6, 2018. It is up 5.6% since then, annualizing at
31.7%.
Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S.
Indices
There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for nine of the ten of the major
indices. They are up by 0.5% since their respective bull signals 4.3-weeks
ago, annualizing at 5.7%.
The Mid-term Indicant Dow
Jones Industrial Average
performance is at $66.252-million. That beats buy and hold performance of
$3.763-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The
MTI S&P500
is at $3.325-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.594-million on a Jan 6,
1950 $10,000 investment. The
MTI-NASDAQ
is at $2.070-million. That beats buy and hold’s $729,820 on a Jan 29, 1971
$10,000 investment. The
MTI-Dow Transports
is at $35.512-million. That is better than buy and hold $728,648 since a
$10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy
and hold by 1,660.4%, 108.6%, 182.3%, and 4,748.3%, respectively, for
these indices as of this past week.
There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above
summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit
slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its
near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its
underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.
The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change
during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves the same
magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the
cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.
Click here for a tour of the
Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks
Click here to see NASDAQ100
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
NASDAQ 100 Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks
Click here to see Dow 30
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Table of
Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks
Click here to see Dow
Utilities Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones
Utility Stocks Table.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks
Click here to see Indicant
Select Stock Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
Indicant Selected Stocks.
Mid-term
Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds
Click here to see Mutual Fund
Report Card history.
Click here for the Mid-term
Table of Mutual Funds.
The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for
MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short
on April 3, 2009. It
is down 98.8% since then. Although this is classically a
post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy
and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in
hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election
years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political
movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to
politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it,
profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of
course, if that happens, you would not enjoy the opportunity to enjoy the
wealth this would provide you.
Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of
Mutual Funds
Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good
way to mix your investments.
Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones
Industrial Average
The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in
November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five
bull/bear cycles since 1920.
The Dow is up 767.3% (annualized at 28.0%) since the Long-term Indicant
signaled bull 1,423-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on
the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable
interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull
signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with
today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up
triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when
considering long-term planning.
Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great
bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009
recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.
The next section is the last
daily stock market report for this past
week.
Short-term
Indicant Stock Market Report Archives
{Repeated here are from
the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week.
Click this link to see all the daily
reports from the last 12-months.
Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of
the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the
end of each week}.
Short-term
Indicant Stock Market Report Summary
Feb 8-Bullish unanimity along the short-term cycle remains in effect with
bull signals for both the near-term and quick-term cycles for the ten
major indices That coupled with contrarian VIX’s continuing bear signals
remains in support of the stock market bull.
Please review the below sections for more insight.
Short-term
Indicant Stock Market Details
Click this sentence to see table leading to
the charts.
Index
Near-term Report Card Summary
The Near-term Indicant signaled no
new bulls and no new
bears.
Number of Near-term Bulls: 11 of 12
Duration of Near-term Bulls: 3.9-wks-avg.
Near-term Bull Performance: 4.7%; Annualized Performance: 63.5%
Number of Near-term Bears: 1 of 12
Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 4.0-wks. avg.
Near-term Bears Average Performance: -13.5%
Near-term Performance
Advantage: Jan 11, 2019-Stock Market Bull, replacing Oct 5, 2018-Stock
Market Bear
Near-term
Stock Market Cycle Analyses
Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 11 of 12.
Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 12
Near-term Position Advantage:
Jan 4, 2019-Stock Market Bull (Change from Dec 7, 2018)
Index
Quick-term Report Card Summary
The Quick-term Indicant signaled no
new bulls and no
new bears.
Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 2.6-wks.
Quick-term Bull Performance: 1.5%; Quick-term Annualized Performance:
29.9%
Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 4.9-weeks-avg.
Quick-term Bear Performance: -13.5%
Quick-term
Stock Market Cycle Analyses
Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1 of 12
Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0 of 12
Quick-term Configured
Advantage: Shifted from Nov 12, 2018-Quick-term Stock Market Bear to Feb
1, 2019 neutral configuration due to absence of any Red Bulls.
Short-term
Stock Market Cycle Analyses
Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 11 of 11
Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 2 of 11
Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 11 of 11
Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 1 of
11
Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 11 of 11
Short-term Advantage:
Short-term Stock Market Bull-effective Jan 11, 2019, replacing Nov 15,
2018-Stock Market Bear support.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Fri-Feb 8-Recent average volume on stock market flatness suggests some
uncertainty of stock market directional intensity.
Thu-Feb 7-Mildly increased volume on stock market bearishness is
supportive of the bear.
Wed-Feb 6- Recent average volume with stock market bearishness is not
inspiring to more of the same.
Tue-Feb 5- Recent average volume with stock market bullishness is not
inspiring to more of the same.
Mon-Feb 4-Recent average volume with stock market bullishness is not
inspiring to more of the same.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts
ETF
Near-term Report Card Summary
The Near-term Indicant generated no buy
signals and
one
sell signal.
The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 28-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold
signals are up by an average of 3.9% since their buy signals an average of
3.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 53.9%.
The NTI is avoiding 3-ETFs. They are down by an average of 4.9% since
their sell signals an average of 7.0-weeks ago.
Near-term
ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 23
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0
Near-term Advantage: Jan 4,
2019-Stock Market Bull, replacing Dec 7, 2018-Stock Market Bear
ETF
Quick-term Report Card Summary
The Quick-term Indicant generated no
buy
signals and no sell
signals.
The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 20-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 2.0% since their buy signals an average of 3.1-weeks ago,
annualizing at 34.5%.
The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding three ETFs. They are down by an
average of 3.4% since their sell signals an average of 7.4-weeks ago.
Quick-term
ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 3
Quick-term Advantage:
Quick-term stock market bull, effective Feb 1, 2019, replacing bearish
bias on Oct 10, 2018.
Reverse
Tangential Projections
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and
magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there
is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined
table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The
table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models
and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the NASDAQ Composite Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the S&P500 Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Understanding Content on the Short-term
Indicant Charts
Indicant
Conclusion
The lone deficiency from desired bullish configurations is the
S&P600-Small Index, which is just barely below the Blue Curve. The other
nine major indices have the desired bullish attributes. The S&P600 force
vector shifted into a bearish direction this past week, offering the stock
market bear a bit of hope. This coming week will indeed be interesting.
Click this sentence to keep up with the
Short-term Indicant.
Click this sentence to maintain stock
market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes
can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that
continue to enjoy hold signals.
Hyperlinks
To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts,
statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log
in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find
your way back.
Stop Loss
Management
This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes.
You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.
The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with
less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new
buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after
buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve
values, depending on your personal preferences.
For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple
digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do
not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to
minimize losses.
Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop
losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive
the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then
quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it
is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of
stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below
prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of
course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most
dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a
combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long
after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow
curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio
values.
For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables.
If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average
the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is
rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is
a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its
value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop
losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow
passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow
price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are
supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece
of a great company or fund.
If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold,
normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is
signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific
buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other
opportunities will emerge.
Happy Investing,
www.indicant.net
02/10/2019