May 17, 2020 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report
Volume 5,
Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report
The Stock Market’s Dreaded
M-Shape
All ten major
index force vectors are now solidly moving in a bearish direction. Only
the NASDAQ and NASDAQ100 are Blue Bulls along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
The Short-term Indicant cycle is in the process of shifting into more
support for the stock market bear. Although the so-called V-shape recovery
is now being challenged, historical observations reveal similar such
starts that shifted into a bearish direction. That occurred at the onset
of the Great Depression, which was caused by politicians. They always
meddle and it is impossible for such meddling to improve anything
economic. The primary enemy to your economic well-being are your elected
politicians, where the weak among us tend to become.
Nancy Pelosi’s
three trillion plan, if implemented, will wreak economic havoc for more
than one generation, while the Great Depression imposed pain and misery
for just one generation. As Senator Schumer suggested, Trump needs to be
more like FDR. The ignorance of the masses who vote for such evil
lunatics. History seldom reveals a good political leader, but yet
generation after generation follows them.
You can see the results of political chaos
by viewing the Dow 1929-1933-Chart by clicking this sentence.
Notice the multiple attempts by the stock market bull to dominate. Such
attempts endured the dreaded M-Shape.
All ten force
vectors are moving in a bearish direction. That was expected as they
matured very similarly to 1929-1933 force vector behavior. However, two of
the major indices misbehaved. They were the
DJT-(Chart)
and DJU-(Chart).
Both fell into bearish domains with bearishly positioned vector pressure.
That is indeed bearish and very much so.
Arguing with that bearishness are the NASDAQ100-(Chart)
and the NASDAQ-(Chart).
Both are solid Red Bulls and Blue Bulls along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Even though their force vectors are falling, their vector pressures are
solidly inside bullish domains. If they do not succumb to the stock market
bear and hold at least some of those bullish attributes, the stock market
bull can offer some resistance against the stock market bear.
Your politicians meddled with the Corona Virus, economically. There was
already going to be economic damage from that. Now, they are wanting to do
more meddling. Keep in mind, the Spanish Flu was bad, killing many more
than the Covid-19 Virus has. IQ’s were higher then, than now. Politicians
recommended countermeasures, honoring their oath to the U.S. Constitution.
Contemporary politicians violated their oath and Blue State politicians
are doubling down on their violations. It is going to be hard for the
stock market bull to be inspired with a communistic takeover. Communism
and stock market bulls cannot coexist for very long.
As long as all these violations and political meddling continue, the stock
market bull will find difficulty dominating. Of course, Pelosi’s
three-trillion lunacy will not pass the Senate or Trump. However, if the
masses become dumber and impose a democratic majority in both the Senate
and House with Biden or any democrat as president, the stock market bear
will start manifesting a deep and long-last bear if the real investing
community believes that will result in about six months. So far, some
attributes are already configuring that way.
Set tighter stop losses on all holdings. Keep your eye on the NASDAQ and
NASDAQ100. If they turn bearish, the stock market bear will dominate.
Please read the next
section.
Mid-term Indicant Status of
the Major Indices
The major stock market indices can be
accessed by clicking this sentence.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the below terms.
Click this sentence to understand the
details on the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for
Explanation1):
2-Red Bulls, 8-Non-Red Bulls
Comment: The NASDAQ-(Chart)
and the NASDAQ100-(Chart)
remain as the only Red Bulls. Those two indices are above Red by an
average of 8.0%. The other eight major indices are below Red by an average
of 8.3%.
Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for
Explanation2):
2-Blue Bulls, 8-Non-Blue Bulls
Comment: The NASDAQ100-(Chart)
and the NASDAQ-(Chart)
remain as the only major indices with Blue Bull status. They are above
blue by an average of 4.1%. The other eight major indices are below blue
by an average of 8.4%.
Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for
Explanation3):
3-Yellow Bears, 7-Non-Yellow
Bears
Comment: They three Yellow Bears are the DJT-(Chart),
S&P400-(Chart),
and S&P600-(Chart).
They are below Yellow by an average of 10.3%. The other seven non-Yellow
Bears are above yellow by 18.9%. The gap between non-Yellow bears and
Yellow bears remains discerning.
Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for
Explanation4):
2-Green Bears, 8-Non-Green Bears
Comment: Eight major indices are above green by 10.4%. The DJT-(Chart)
and the S&P600-(Chart)
are below green by 5.4%. Stock market stabilization is not supported with
15.8% gap.
Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5):
10-Reds Higher than Green;
0-Green Higher Than Red
Comment: The ten major red curves are above the green curve by an average
of 22.4%. This attribute is relevant until after the next major bullish
swing when green curves will cross above the red curves.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6):
8-bullish domains, 2-bearish
domains
Comment: Two major indices crossed back into bearish domains after finding
discomfort in bullish domains. That is increasingly bearish. They were the
DJT-(Chart)
and DJU-(Chart).
A bearish DJU eliminates the safety escape, adding increasing bearish
bias.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to
Vector Pressure7):
9-above pressure, 1-below
pressure
Comment: The DJU-(Chart)
fell below Vector Pressure this past week, offering the stock market bear
an ally.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8):
6-bullish domains, 4-bearish
domains
Comment: The majority are now in bullish domains. That would normally be
bullish, but falling force threatens that normally bullish attribute.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9):
0-bullishly directed,
10-bearishly directed
Comment: As stated two weeks ago, bullishly directed force vectors
suggests the stock market bull is willing to battle the stock market bear.
That willingness is now shrinking a bit.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10):
10-bullishly directed,
0-bearishly directed
Comment: All ten vector pressures are bullishly directed for
the fourth consecutive week. Keep in mind, they need to penetrate bullish
domains. Until that happens, the stock market bear remains with
significant potential to attack. So far, four have penetrated bullish
domains. The stock market bull requires all ten in bullish domains to be
dominant.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the above terms.
Click this sentence to understand how to
read the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Configured
Condition of Major Indices:
Several attributes shifted favor of the stock market bear. This suggests
the stock market my be M-Shaped.
Weekly Buy/Sell Summary –
Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years
Click this sentence for a
graphical summary of what follows in this section.
It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the
webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section.
The below describes the same for the past
five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which
will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along
with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports.
From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific
time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock
Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with
five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002
remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond
the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was
also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008
here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website.
Of course, the website has stock market
history dating back to 1900.
The Mid-term Indicant generated
two-buy
signals and 14-sell
signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term
Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 166 of the 321-stocks and
funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up
an average of 285.0% that annualizes to 68.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has
been signaling hold for these 166-stocks and funds for an average of
216.1-weeks. There have been 107-buy signals for stocks and funds so far,
this year.
The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 134-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by
the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 29.7%
since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 77.8-weeks ago.
There have been 196-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.
One year ago, on May 17, 2019 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 236-stocks
and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 236.1-weeks. They were up
by an average of 213.1% (annualized at 46.9%). There were 81-avoided
stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by
an average of 28.6% since their respective sell signals an average of
98.5-weeks earlier, one year ago. There was one buy signal and three sell
signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 81-buy signal and 20-sell
signals for the year through this weekend in 2019.
The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 246-stocks on May 18, 2018.
They were up 219.7% since their buy signals an average of 253.8-weeks
earlier, annualizing at 45.0%. There were 73-avoided stocks on this
weekend since their sell signals an average of 83.6-weeks earlier. There
was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2018. There had
been 32-buy signals and 56-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of
that year.
The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 253-stocks and funds of the
301-tracked on May 19, 2017. They were up by an average of 184.9%,
annualizing at 44.9%, since their respective buy signals an average of
214.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 45-stocks and
funds at that time. They were down an average of 22.6% since their
respective sell signals an average of 102.8-weeks earlier. There were no
buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been
22-year-to-date buy signals and 18-sell signals through this weekend in
2017. This year was profoundly bullish, following the fake stock market
bear on election night in 2016. Wall Street liberals are real and they
errantly thought the world was ending on Trump’s election that evening. A
few days after the 2016 presidential election and Trump’s victory, the
stock market bull stampeded with several record setting events. The number
of “real investors” wiped out the Wall Street liberals as Trumponomics is
very real, as opposed to the phoniness of the Wall street liberals and
their DC brethren.
The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 210-stocks and funds of the
338-tracked on May 13, 2016. They were up by an average of 148.1%,
annualizing at 36.7% since their respective buy signals an average of
209.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 127-stocks and
funds at that time. They were down an
average of 18.5% since their respective sell signals an average of
60.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this
weekend in 2016. There had been a total of 32-buy signals and 68-sell
signals through this weekend in 2016. The stock market endured some
bearish cycles in this year as Hillary Clinton led in the polls. Once she
lost, the stock market bull stampeded to the north with phenomenal
ferocity.
The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates.
Abandoned securities have no impact to the above
performance statistics
and the
historical report card.
They always represent
status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities
become NLT (no longer traded), their performance
levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT.
There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds
tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or
listed on major stock exchanges.
The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in
2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the
consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and
related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The
primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and
arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that
fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal
behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}.
Click here to see abandoned
securities.
Comments about Mid-term
Indicant Buy and Sell Signals
As political meddling in the U.S. economy continues with more to come, set
tight stop losses. The stock market bear holds an edge over the stock
market bear. Until falling force vectors shift back into a bullish
direction the stock market bear will retain that advantage. The Indicant
is now 42.5% out of the market which is below being out by over 74% in
March. The rebound following the late Feb and early Mar 173-sell signals
was followed by 101 buy signals since Apr 10, 2020. With that, the bullish
rebound remains weaker than the bearish onslaught from COVID-19. Keep your
eye on the NASDAQ100 and NASDAQ. They are the only two major indices with
bullish configurations. If they lose them, there will be more sell
signals.
Clicking this sentence will
take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.
The Short-term Indicant
signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a
buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term
Indicant summaries.
These short-term
models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the
Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to
reject short-term trader nervousness.
The Daily Stock Market Report
reports status for the short-term model.
Economic Conditions –
Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates
Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.
Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not
fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it
does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive
bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and
inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate
the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined
absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than
8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now.
That is a temporary condition. Recent promotions of communism, if
successful, will result in zero for all capital stocks. The DNC and
followers in the pontificating press are doing their best using the
coronavirus to accelerate that effort. The coronavirus bear could be the
start of a much deeper bear, but so far, the impact to the stock market
bear has not been catastrophic. The two trillion bailout will be
inflationary, but with some luck low oil prices may minimize that. The
increasingly low IQ that has destroyed many prior civilizations is
manifesting by your contemporarily elected sociopaths.
Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the
reported CPI
remains relatively healthy, while the
PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this
report, Trumponomics will be inflationary and heightened even more with
money supply increasing far above earned money. Despite that eventuality,
inflation remains tame for the time being. The annual inflation rate is
being reported at only 0.3% to date this year. Oil prices are down 55.7%
from this time one year ago, despite price jumps in two of the past three
weeks. Commodities are deflating, however.
The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and
Effective Rate decreased by 100-basis points on Mar 20, 2020, following a
50-basis point cut on weekending Mar 6, 2020. That followed less
aggressive decreases on Aug 2, 2019, Sep 19, 2019, and Nov 2, 2019. These
less aggressive decreases were miniscule to the increases on Dec 23, 2016,
Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018, Sep
30, 2018, and Dec 21, 2018.
High unemployment and
semi-germ warfare from China are confronting the stock market bull.
The 3-Month T-Bill
fell to Yellow Bear status on
weekending Jul 19, 2019.
After falling deeper into
the domain of the Yellow Bear, it started a rebound attempt on weekending
Jan 10, 2020, but fell deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear on
weekending Mar 6, 2020 and rapidly falling even more since then and below
zero on weekending Mar 19, 2020, with a small bounce north of zero on
weekend Apr 3, 2020 and holding there the past few weeks.
The
Euro
escaped Yellow Bear status on
week-ending Jan 10, 2020, but fell back into the domain of the Yellow Bear
on weekending Feb 14, 2020 and barely remaining there. The 2020-mean
forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting
$0.93 to $0.94. The absence of variation in its steady decline is
impressive.
The
Canadian dollar
climbed above Red
(weakening) on weekending Mar 13, 2020 after climbing above Yellow
(weakening) on weekending Aug 23, 2019. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.32CA
with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from
$1.58CA to $1.63CA.
The
Japanese Yen
continues in a steady downward drift (strengthening), falling barely into
the domain of the Yellow Bear (stronger). This currency has been and
remains very stable since 2015. Its statistical mean forecast is at
110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a
range of 131-143-Yen/U.S. dollar. Its flatness the past three years is
unusual. That helps international stabilization, which is always welcome
by the stock market bull. It also strengthened with the mild rate
reduction by the U.S. Fed on weekending Aug 2, 2019, but with limited
impact on the Sep 19, 2019 rate reduction and continued steadiness with
crazy Coronavirus reactions since early Feb 2020.
British Pound’s
2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.31 with more aggressive
polynomials, projecting around $1.03-$1.13 by Dec 31, 2020. Since its
mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it drifted, bearishly. It climbed above Yellow
Bear status on weekending Oct 18, 2019 and above Red on weekending, Dec 5,
2019, and again falling below Red on weekending Feb 7, 2020. After resting
in the zone of neutrality, it fell into the domain of the Yellow Bear on
weekending Mar 13, 2020 but has since strengthened and stabilizing
somewhat in the domain of the Yellow Bear.
The
Bitcoin
lost Red Bull status on weekending Feb 20, 2020, after regaining Red Bull
status on weekending Feb 13, 2020 and falling into the domain of the
Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 13, 2020. It climbed out Yellow Bear status
on weekending Apr 3, 2020 with massive greenback printing in overzealous
responses to the Coronavirus attack from China. It remains in the zone of
neutrality (between Red and Yellow) with some bullishness to it. It is now
just below the domain of the Red Bull.
Gold climbed sharply above
Red on weekending Jun 21, 2019.
After a long rest, it
remains a Red Bull, but falling sharply for four weeks until bullish
rebound on Apr 16, 2020. Prior deflationary threats are subsiding, but
gold remains bullish. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,305/oz. while the more
aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating
$990-$1,110/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the
Indicant Daily Stock
Market Report
by tracking
ETF#11-GLD.
Oil fell into Yellow Bear
status on Feb 6, 2020.
After falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear, it rebounded
strongly on weekending Apr 6, 2020 and continuing its rebound with
OPEC/Russian production cuts. Its recent movement is congruent to stock
market bearishness and stock market bullishness. The 2020-intrinsic and
aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $20 to $21. That is correct,
but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast
is at $52/bbl.
The
CRB Bridge Futures
escaped Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 13, 2019 after falling into
Yellow Bear status on Nov 23, 2018. It is now finding a nestling location
but well into the depths of the domain of the Yellow Bear. The 2020-mean
forecast is at $180, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting
$110-$105 by 2020. Its current configuration offers no support for
inflation. It has been uncharacteristically steady for several years.
Prior threatening deflationary concerns are subsiding.
Mortgage rates fell into
Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.
They remain as Yellow Bears. This remains a great time to
finance real estate for those willing to incur debt during uncertainties
from the Coronavirus and the more damaging sociopathic politicians.
The
consumer price index
and
producer price index
are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest
rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary
threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions
around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong
may offset the weak. The coronavirus had been disrupting that line of
thinking, but nearing its disruptive end.
Mid-term Indicant
Positions – Ten U.S. Indices
There were no new bull signals and
one
new bear signal
this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for two major indices. They are up
by an average of 7.7%, annualizing at 88.4%. Those bulls are the NASDAQ-(Chart)
and the NASDAQ100-(Chart).
The DJU-(Chart)
endured the new bear signal.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bear for seven major indices. They are
down by an average of 10.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bear an
average of 11.0-weeks ago. The most bearish is the S&P600, which is down
19.5% since its bear signal on Feb 28, 2020. The least bearish is the
S&P100. It is down 0.1% since its Feb 28, 2020 bear signal.
The Mid-term Indicant Dow
Jones Industrial Average
performance is at $67.052-million. That beats buy and hold performance of
$3.550-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The
MTI S&P500
is at $3.629-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.687-million on a Jan 6,
1950 $10,000 investment. The
MTI-NASDAQ
is at $2.124-million. That beats buy and hold’s $901,456 on a Jan 29, 1971
$10,000 investment. The
MTI-Dow Transports
is at $29.860-million. That is better than buy and hold $555,657 since a
$10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy
and hold by 1,888.5%, 215.4%, 235.6%, and 5,373.5%, respectively, for
these indices as of this past week.
There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above
summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit
slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its
near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its
underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.
The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change
during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same
magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the
cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a
week or two for the statistics to settle.
Click here for a tour of the
Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
NASDAQ100 Stocks
Click here to see NASDAQ100
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
NASDAQ 100 Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks
Click here to see Dow 30
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Table of
Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks
Click here to see Dow
Utilities Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones
Utility Stocks Table.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Indicant Selected Stocks
Click here to see Indicant
Select Stock Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
Indicant Selected Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Mutual Funds
Click here to see Mutual Fund
Report Card history.
Click here for the Mid-term
Table of Mutual Funds.
The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for
MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short
on April 3, 2009. It
is down 99.5% since then. Although this is classically a
post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy
and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in
hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election
years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political
movements. Although poll accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to
politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it,
profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now,
even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the stock market bull. Of
course, if that happens, you would not be allowed to benefit from that
opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you. Politburo’s
confiscate. This fund remains too depressed for a coronavirus buy at this
point.
At this point it is better to purchase
related ETF, QID, when you see a buy signal.
Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of
Mutual Funds
Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good
way to mix your investments.
Long Term Indicant
Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average
The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in
November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five
bull/bear cycles since 1920.
The Dow is up 718.2% (annualized at 25.1%) since the Long-term Indicant
signaled bull 1,489-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on
the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable
interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull
signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with
today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up
triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when
considering long-term planning.
Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great
bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009
recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.
The next section is the last
daily stock market report for this past
week.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Archives
{Repeated here are from
the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week.
Click this link to see all the daily
reports from the last 12-months.
Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of
the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the
end of each week}.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Summary
Fri-May 15-All non-contrarian force vectors and vector pressure is now
directionally bearish. Prior points of resistance are now being challenged
at the demarcation between bullish and bearish domains. Overall, the stock
market bear is being favored along the short-term cycle.
Thu-May 14-Late day stock market bullishness was accompanied with subdued
volume and thus non-supportive of bullish continuation. Arguing with that
are several force vectors moving bearishly an how just above bearish
domains. The last such cycle inspired the stock market bull with force’s
resisting a drop into bearish domains. Blue State governors are working
hard to depress corporate profits, accelerating their desire for a
recessing the economy. The masses in those states, so far, are dutifully
following the path of poverty as many generations before this one.
Wed-May 13-The NYSE-(Chart)
endured a near-term bear signal today. The majority of the major indices
are enduring near-term bear signals. Contrarian VIX-(Chart)
crossed above pressure. If it holds, it will enjoy a new bull signal. Its
related ETN, VXX-(Chart),
enjoyed a buy signal. All that does not bode well for the stock market
bear. Vector pressure remains in bullish domains for the most part, but so
far that attribute has not been buffering the wrath of the stock market
bear. That is still a chance that can stop the stock market bear, but that
chance now less than the risk of continued holding.
Tue-May 12-Short-term force vectors shifted to a bearish direction. That
triggered new bear signals for the DJC-(Chart),
DJT-(Chart),
S&P400-(Chart),
and S&P600-(Chart).
They are weakly configured within the domain of near-term neutrality
(between blue and green). The DJU-(Chart)
is already both a near-term and quick-term bear. Sell all utility related
securities you may be holding. Communistic democrats are using the
pandemic to do what communist do. They hurt or destroy all below them,
while they live the good life. The stock market bull cannot coexist with
their success. The stock market bull does not want continued shut-downs
and violators to the U.S. Constitution.
Mon-May 11-The NASDAQ-(Chart)
and NASDAQ100-(Chart)
are racing to pre-pandemic levels. Both are solid Red Bulls. Other major
indices remain as Yellow Bears. There will be convergence to zero
disparity between Red Bulls and Yellow Bears. Short-term configurations
strongly favor the stock market bull at this time, while the more stable
mid-term attributes are mildly favor the stock market bear. The DJU-(Chart)
is not behaving in a contrarian manner and increasingly bearish along both
the short-term and mid-term cycle. However, its force vector continues
moving in a bullish direction. Sell all related utility securities if they
shift bearishly at any time this week.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Details
Click this sentence to see table leading to
the charts.
Index Near-term Report Card
Summary
The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and
one
new bear.
Number of Near-term Bulls: 4 of 12
Duration of Near-term Bulls: 5.3-wks-avg.
Near-term Bull Performance: 8.0%; Annualized Performance: 78.6%.
Number of Near-term Bears: 7 of 12
Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 1.1-wks. avg.
Near-term Bears Average Performance: -3.6%
Near-term Performance
Advantage: May 13-Stock Market Bear
Near-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 2 of 12
Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 12
Near-term Position Cyclical
Advantage: Apr 9-Stock Market Bull
Index Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant signaled no
new bulls and no new
bears.
Number of Quick-term Bulls: 4 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 4.9-wks.
Quick-term Bull Performance: 6.1%; Quick-term Annualized Performance:
65.6%
Number of Quick-term Bears: 8 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 9.1-weeks-avg.
Quick-term Bear Performance: -14.7%
Quick-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2 of 12 (The lone Red Bull is
the NASDAQ100)
Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 7 of 12
Quick-term Configured
Advantage: Feb 27, 2020-Quick-term Advantage to Bear
Short-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 2 of 11
Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 0 of 11
Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 8 of 11
Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: of
11
Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 0 of 11
Short-term Advantage:
Short-term Stock Market Bull-effective Apr 8, 2020.
Indicant Volume Indicators
Fri-May 15-Steady volume on stock market steadiness is encouraging, but
still not supportive of a shift in directional intensity.
Thu-May 14-Late day bullishness with milder light volume suggests limited
continuation of that bullish exuberance.
Wed-May 13-Volume was down a bit and closer to recent averages. However,
it is high enough to continue favoring the stock market bear along the
short-term cycle.
Tue-May 12-Increased volume on solid stock market bearishness suggests
more of the same. It should be noted that both volume indicators have
shifted into a direction of low interest. Much of that is seasonal, while
today’s volume was seasonally high, favoring the stock market bear.
Mon-May 11-Volume remains along recent averages, again supporting the
theme of stock market stabilization. That does not mean volatility has
expired. It simply means the stock market is comfortable at current
levels, even though with an ability to bounce significantly up and down at
prevailing levels.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and
Charts
ETF Near-term Report Card
Summary
The Near-term Indicant generated no buy
signals and no sell
signals.
The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 18-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold
signals are up by an average of 5.4% since their buy signals an average of
5.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 54.2%.
The NTI is avoiding 15-ETFs. They are down by an average of 1.8% since
their sell signals an average of 3.3-weeks ago.
Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 5
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1
Near-term Advantage: Stock
Market Bull Apr 9, 2020
ETF Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy
signals and no sell
signals.
The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 12-ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 16.5% since their buy signals an average of 14.6-weeks ago,
annualizing at 58.8%.
The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 20-ETFs. They are down by an average
of 17.2% since their sell signals an average of 9.2-weeks ago.
Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 4
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 17
Quick-term Advantage:
Quick-term Stock Market Bear Mar 9, 2020
Reverse Tangential
Projections
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and
magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there
is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined
table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The
table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models
and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the NASDAQ Composite Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the S&P500 Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Understanding Content on the Short-term
Indicant Charts
Indicant Conclusion
The NASDAQ-(Chart)
and NASDAQ100-(Chart)
remain as the lone Mid-term Indicant bulls. They are the lone protectors
of the stock market bull. All of the other major indices are very
bearishly configured. As stated for several weeks, “as long as vector
pressure remains in bearish domains, the stock market bear has capacity to
attack.”
The stock market bull needs the NASDAQ-(Chart)
and NASDAQ100-(Chart)
to retain their status as Red Bulls and force vector must shift back into
a bullish direction before the stock market bull can resume its path.
Set very tight stop losses, as the stock market bear remains too strongly
configured with the weakening bullish rally.
Click
this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.
Click this sentence to maintain stock
market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes
can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that
continue to enjoy hold signals.
Hyperlinks
To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts,
statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log
in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find
your way back.
Stop Loss Management
This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes.
You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.
The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with
less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new
buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after
buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve
values, depending on your personal preferences.
For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple
digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do
not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to
minimize losses.
Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop
losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive
the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then
quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it
is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of
stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below
prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of
course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most
dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a
combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long
after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow
curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio
values.
For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables.
If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average
the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is
rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is
a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its
value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop
losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow
passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow
price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are
supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece
of a great company or fund.
If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold,
normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is
signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific
buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other
opportunities will emerge.
Indicant Conclusion
Force vector behavior is increasingly unfriendly to the stock market bull
with a majority of the major indices in a strong bearish direction. Force
vectors remain below vector pressure. Until force moves above pressure,
the stock market bull remains absent.
Click this sentence to keep up with the
Short-term Indicant.
Click this sentence to maintain stock
market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes
can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that
continue to enjoy hold signals.
Hyperlinks
To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts,
statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log
in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find
your way back.
Stop Loss Management
This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes.
You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.
The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with
less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new
buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after
buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve
values, depending on your personal preferences.
For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple
digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do
not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to
minimize losses.
Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop
losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive
the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then
quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it
is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of
stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below
prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of
course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most
dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a
combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long
after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow
curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio
values.
For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables.
If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average
the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is
rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is
a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its
value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop
losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow
passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow
price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are
supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece
of a great company or fund.
If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold,
normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is
signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific
buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other
opportunities will emerge.
Happy Investing,
www.indicant.net
05/17/2020
