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Oct 14, 2018 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 10, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report


Politburo and Bolshevik Contributions to The Stock Market Bear

The S&P400-Midcaps-(Chart) endured its first Mid-term Indicant bear signal since Dec 11, 2015 this past weekend. The Dec 11, 2015-Bear Signal #03-(Chart) turned out to be a mild and short bearish period. Clicking this sentence will take you to the S&P400 transaction table, where you can see bull-bear history since 1993 for that particular index. This expiring S&P400-Bull lived for 136-weeks, as the third longest since 1993. The longest was from Jan 1995 through Aug 1998, lasting 188-weeks. The second longest Mid-term Indicant Bull lasted 164-weeks from Jun 2012 to Aug 2015.


The 1995-1998 stock market bull cycle is attributable to a republican congress shutting down Bill Clinton’s agenda. Contemporary pundits stupidly give Bill Clinton credit for that and a significant portion of the masses believe that punditry. That same level of ignorance credits Barack Obama with the 2012-2015 bull, but again a republican congress shut down Obama’s agenda, which the stock market bull delighted. The 2009-2015 bull cycle is also attributable to Ben Bernanke’s policies. The 2016-2018 bull cycle is attributable to Trumponomics, while the burgeoning bear threat is attributable to the possibility of a democratic takeover of Congress. Keep in mind, the stock market peaked in 2007 or about six month after the democrats took over congress and the stock market bull completely retreated at the obviations of democrats holding complete power in the 2008 elections.


Contemporary unaccomplished liberal artsy pundits are too stupid to figure anything out. They simply read script written by others who think they will be among the elite politburo members. Those idiots are even wrong about that. Evil people have no respect for those that help carry out their evil. They even have their close associates eliminated. Oh well, there is no cure for stupidity other than its outright elimination. Nature has a way of taking care of that.


Midcaps are always interesting as those corporations have escaped the status of smallness but not yet enjoying being large. However, they are big enough to start attracting resume writers and other dilettante sort of managers. They are not quite big enough to afford lobbyists to payoff the political elites for economic advantage. That coupled with a rising Bolshevik revolution and the threat of politburo form of government is one reason for the stock market bull being worn out. All the stock market bull wants is cash flows to move favorably to overall shareholder equity. Bolsheviks and politburos are the antithesis of that.


With the increasing threat of a politburo form of government with Orangutan leadership of the likes of Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, and the extraordinarily corrupt Maxine Waters, along with their tribalistic Bolsheviks, the stock market bull sees no reason to coexist with that. Those Orangutan leaders will most likely pass a law that does not protect property damage to owners that support opposing viewpoints. As the politburo gains more power, they will expand the penalties for disagreeing with them. That system has been in place throughout the millennial and every now and then, that cycle of destruction dominants the underlying socio-economic cycle.


The politburo does not care about rising incomes and falling unemployment. They were happy and content with rising food stamp usage and rising unemployment. The more of that there is, the more power they have. And that is all politburo wannabes desire; just more power. They do not care about you.


The screaming and asset destruction, along with louder and louder politburo wannabes, is simply too difficult for the stock market bull to endure. It will quickly abandon a society that does not arrest and severely prosecute those that destroy assets. Long-term return on investment is not calculable when assets can be destroyed without penalty. With that, the stock market bull has no idea of where it should be.


Too many among the masses do not know history. They tend to believe orations from the lying politburo wannabes. For those who are interested, study the Russian economy from 1900 through three generations through the 1980’s. The rise of the politburo correlates perfectly with the decline of your life, liberty, and any pursuit of happiness. The more the politburo chatters and their minions listening, the less likelihood of a continuing stock market bull. The stock market bull is very capable of calculating social behavior’s impact to corporate profits. It did a great job of that during FDR’s reign in the 1930’s. FDR had to start a war to hide his failures. The stock market can quickly go to zero if it sees little or no corporate profitability. Politburo wannabes promote asset destruction and the more of that there is, the less there is of corporate profits. Politburo wannabes always promote they know a better way, but never offer any proof and in the end, they enjoy the caviar while you will become hungry. Blame the masses. The politburo wannabes are not to blame. They are simply sick in the mind with only one goal of maintaining power. They have been eliminated in one form or fashion for the past five hundred years or so, but every now and then they do achieve success.


For example, this past week, for those of you who lower your IQ watching an excessive amount of news television and especially those mind-numbing early morning talk shows, saw a multitude of unknown and obviously unaccomplished people, while dressed smartly and attempting to sound smart, criticize Kayne West for his expression of opposing views of the contemporary democratic party (communists). He was even accused of being mentally deficient by several people. Stalinism would have him executed. Your politburo wannabes, which is most of the congress and all of the deep state, would love to have that sort of power. No one is allowed a differing opinion. A famous African American orating differing viewpoints is threatening to the politburo. Laws at this time disallow his arrest and imprisonment, but rest assured the politburo wannabes will solve that problem as soon as they can.


The public education system has dumbed-down the populace and for proof of that, simply watch newsy television, where you will see hundreds of unaccomplished people emanating commentary from their pathetic three-pound brains their viewpoints about everyone else, even though they themselves obviate the devolution of humanity. The problem with devolving humans is they do not know what they do not know. They just keep on orating nonsensicalities. The problem with the stupid is they are too stupid to know they are stupid.


Bolsheviks do not know how to build anything. They are destroyer assets. The required talent to destroy assets is zero. The required talent to build assets is so high that only a few among the masses are capable of that. On the socioeconomic balance sheet, the Bolsheviks lift liabilities and reduce assets. The net equity of all of that shrivels. The stock market bull cannot coexist with that sort of balance sheet. The weak and dumb destroy assets, while very few people know how to create them. Asset creators have always been in a minority of people and thus have no chance when the majority becomes excessively envious and increasingly stupid, they start their destructive behavior, which leads to self-inflicted destruction.


The burgeoning and potential prevailing cycle is not the first one like it and if not nipped in the bud, quickly, such cycles can last hundreds of years. The Bolshevik’s offspring in Russia, for about four generations, lived in poverty. That sort of cycle has been repeated several times in human history. The masses have a tendency self-annihilate out every now and then.  The stock market bull does not hang around to witness that.


Trump blamed the Federal Reserve for last week’s stock market bearishness. Interest rates were increased two weeks ago, while the stock market tends to behave on anticipation. However, the Fed has been raising rates 25-basis points about every three months or so of recent years and the market could indeed be in search of where the economy could be after two more cycles of that. As stated several times in this report, there is an upper limit to rising interest rates where there is no more tolerance allowed by the stock market bull. There is plenty of history where the Federal Reserve has been causation to economic recession.


There is a solid argument the stock market is looking at the potential for democratic congressional control with the threat of impeachment toward the president, an impeachment of supreme court justices, and a rewrite of the U.S. Constitution where New York state and California, alone, will elect your president. Doing away with the electoral college highlights IQ levels significantly below where they were 250-years ago. If the masses continue electing their inferiors, the masses will then fall below that of their social bosses.


All of the above socioeconomic commentary is subjective and without objective truth, but the correlations between stock market bearishness and Bolshevik-like behavior and politburo orations is inarguable. It is just a matter of time before anti-Bolshevik’s wipe them out. When that happens, the politburo will have what they strongly desire and that is confiscation of weapons. The politburo wannabes are too stupid to understand that task is not going to be easy. Social calamity is highly desired by politburo wannabes. It eases their conquests.


Here are the objective observations you need to make to understand the stock market’s future tendencies. Falling force vectors and vector pressure are the predominant attributes to monitor. Until force shifts back into a bullish direction and cross above pressure, the stock market bull will not regain dominance. Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.


There are three steps required for the stock market bull to regain dominance that will occur in the following order. Step number one requires force vectors to shift from their current bearish direction back into a bullish direction. Now, do not get too excited when that happens. That is only the first step. Secondly, force vectors must cross above vector pressure with solid rigidity and hold above vector pressure. Any wobbling and disfigurement will only encourage the stock market bear to exert its influence. Finally, the index must eclipse the short-cycle blue curve. Until those three things happen, the stock market bull will not regain dominance.

If all the major indices’ vector pressures fall into bearish domains, the requirements for the stock market bull to regain dominance will include them returning to bullish domains. Short bullish cycles with M-Shapes are common when pressure is in bearish domains. A review of those frustrating M-Shaped configurations can be found in the Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report of February 23, 2014 by clicking this sentence.


The next section highlights the current condition of the stock market.


Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.


Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.


Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 8-Red Bulls, 2-Non-Red Bulls

            Comment: Red Bull unanimity was lost this past week with the Dow Utilities-(Chart) and the S&P400-Midcaps-(Chart) falling below Red. The major indices including non-Red Bulls, on average, are above Red by 3.4%. The ten major indices were down by an average of 4.2% last week. Another similar week with current configurations will result in at least a total of 8-Mid-term Indicant Bears.


Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls- Click for Explanation2): 0-Blue Bull, 10-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The absence of Blue Bulls is a major depressant to the stock market bull. The next line of defense against aggressions by the stock market bear is the Red Curve.


Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: None of the major indices are Yellow Bears, which correlates to unfavorable economic outlooks. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 25.4% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance. The gap between prevailing prices and the Yellow Bear is too wide to be considered where the next bear signals will occur. The Indicant will not wait for the market to fall 25.4% before signaling bear. Currently, losing Red Bull status is where the next bear signals will occur with the exception of the DJU and DJT, where Green is still below Red. In those two cases, the next bear signal will occur at or below Green. In other words, The Indicant will tolerate a drop of 3.4% to next bear signals, overall. You saw that this weekend where the S&P400 endured its first Mid-term Indicant bear signal in nearly three years. The last one was in late 2015, which can be seen by clicking this sentence.


Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 2-Green Bears, 8-Non-Green Bears

                Comment: The S&P400-(Chart) and S&P600-(Chart) fell below Green this past week. Overall, all ten major indices, including Green Bears, are above Green by 2.4%. At this point bear signals are not to be considered until the market falls another 3.4%, which is the distance to the bullish red curves. In other words, Green Bears will occur before Red Bulls expire and thus the expiration of Red Bulls will trigger Mid-term Indicant bear signals with the exception of the DJU and DJT. Green Bears are a much desired ally by the stock market bear. There are now two of them.


Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): Two Reds Higher than Green; Eight Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: This attribute continues identifying an overheated bull market. The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) are the only major indices where Green is not above Red. The DJT and DJU have yet enjoyed their green curves crossing above their red curves in this cycle. Red, overall, is only 0.9% below Green. Strong stock market bearishness this past week highlights an over heated bull market.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 3-bullish domains, 7-bearish domains

                Comment: Last week it was stated, “two fell into bearish domains, enhancing potential for the stock market bear to attack.” As you saw, the stock market bear indeed attacked and with unusual ferocity.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 0-above pressure, 10-below pressure

                Comment: This attribute is supportive of the stock market bear and until some force vectors cross back above their vector pressure curves, do not expect any sustainability by the stock market bull.


Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 8-bullish domains, 2-bearish domains

                Comment: Two pressures falling into bearish domains enhances support for the stock market bear.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 0-bullish, 10-bearish

                Comment: This attribute remains in strong support of the stock market bear.


Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 0-bullish, 10-bearish

            Comment: This attribute remains supportive of the stock market bear.


Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.


Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Falling force vectors and vector pressure are the predominant attributes to monitor. Until force shifts back into a bullish direction and crosses above pressure, the stock market bull will not regain dominance.


Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week., NAS#23-CTRP-(Chart), was up 9.3% last week as the most bullish NASDAQ100 stock. It is also up 321.9% since the Indicant’s Sep 2012 buy signal. Despite last week’s bullishness, this stock is nearing Yellow Bear status. Its bullishly directed force vector is supportive of it escaping the bearish yellow curve. Sears Holding, NAS#83-SHLD-(Chart), was down 35.6% last week as the most bearish NASDAQ100 stock. This stock is down 99.2% since the Indicant’s Dec 2013 sell signal. It is no longer a NASDAQ100 stock, but the Indicant retains former NASDAQ100 stocks in the index for lengthy periods to ease finding such stocks on the website. Bankruptcy is on the immediate horizon of this stock. Continuing to avoid is appropriate.


Enzo Biotech, ISTK#47-ENZ-(Chart), was up 4.4% last week as this group of stocks biggest gainer. However, it is down 27.0% since the Indicant’s Jun 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear, despite last week’s bullishness. Money chased low priced and avoided stocks. Alcoa, ISTK#35-AA-(Chart), was down 15.2% as the most bearish stock in this group last week. However, it is up 17.3% since the Indicant’s Nov 2016 buy signal. This former Dow30 stock is nearing Yellow Bear status. Set your stop loss at the Yellow price.


Walmart, DJIA#24-WMT-(Chart), was up 1.6% last week as the most bullish Dow30 stock. It is also up 31.5% since the Indicant’s Mar 2017 buy signal. Continue holding this Red Bull. Caterpillar, DJIA#17-CAT-(Chart), was down 7.3% last week as the most bearish Dow30 stock. However, this stock is up 72.1% since the Indicant’s Aug 5, 2016 buy signal. Despite last week’s bearishness, continue holding the Red Bull.


Public Enterprise, DJU#10-PEG-(Chart), was up 1.8% last week and up 72.8% since the Indicant’s Jan 2013 buy signal. Continue holding this Red Bull. Williams Co, DJU#11-WMB-(Chart), was down 3.4% as the most bearish Dow Utility stock, triggering a sell signal. This stock has endured a tight trading zone for over two years and having difficulty escaping that zone, which is enduring a mild bearish drift to it.


Pro Funds Ultra Short of NASDAQ100, MF#22-USPIX-(Chart), was up 6.1% last week as the most bullish mutual fund, but it is down 98.9% since the Indicant’s Apr 2009 sell signal. Despite last week’s bullishness, continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. Fidelity Defense Aerospace, MF#36-FSDAX-(Chart), was down 7.0% as the most bearish mutual fund last week. However, this mutual fund is up 189.0% since the Indicant’s Dec 2009 buy signal. Despite its bearishness last week, continue holding this Red Bull.


Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that prior to the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. 


The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and seven sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  


The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 251 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 217.3% that annualizes to 46.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 251-stocks and funds for an average of 242.2-weeks. There have been 73-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.


The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 63-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 23.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 84.3-weeks ago. There have been 92-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Last week’s report errantly stated there were 63-YTD sell signals. It should have stated there were 85-YTD sell signal.


One year ago, on Oct 13, 2017 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 271-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 219.7-weeks. They were up by an average of 183.0% (annualized at 43.3%). There were 52-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 20.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 124.5-weeks earlier, one year ago. There was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2017. There had been 72-buy signals and 52-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2017.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 255-stocks on Oct 14, 2016. They were up 145.5% since their buy signals an average of 188.7-weeks earlier, annualizing at 40.1%. There were 47-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 86.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There had been 122-buy signals and 87-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. Polls favored Hillary Clinton throughout most of that year’s election cycle. That confronted the stock market bull and encouraged the stock market bear. Presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, once said she would take corporate profits and do something better with the money. That sort of talk from an economic illiterate in a very significant political position aroused the stock market bear. The stock market bear is especially aroused when such comments stimulate applause from voting lunatics.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 242-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Oct 16, 2015. They were up by an average of 166.0%, annualizing at 38.4%, since their respective buy signals an average of 224.8-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 93-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 14.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 66.7-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There were 34-year-to-date buy signals and 88-sell signals at this time of year in 2015. This presidential pre-election year was somewhat uneventful and tame, following unusually strong post-election year bullishness in 2013 and a flat 2014-mid-term presidential election year.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 302-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Oct 10, 2014. They were up by an average of 123.5%, annualizing at 35.8%, since their respective buy signals an average of 180.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 22-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 24.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 75.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and eight sell signals on this weekend in 2014. There had been a total of 22-buy signals and 38-sell signals through this weekend in 2014. The market was mostly flat that year following the very strong 2013-bull leg that was inspired, in part, by sequestration.


There were 309-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Oct 11, 2013 since their buy signals an average of 138.5-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 95.9% (annualized at 36.0%). There were 29-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 28.0% from their respective sell signals an average of 79.2-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2013. There had been 81-buy signals and 52-sell signals through this weekend in 2013. This was an impressively bullish year, as sequestration inspired the stock market bull along an accelerated growth plane. Although sequestered spending was minimal, the underlying principles of handcuffing the irrationality of politicians inspired the stock market bull.


The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     


The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.


Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying and selling have been limited for the past few years, as the bull’s perseverance has prevented a solid bear market for nearly ten years. That has been reducing the number of stocks in temporary decline to earn new buy signals since they have been enjoying hold signals for several years. An increase in opportunities may emerge depending on the political spectrum. The Trump agenda will be shut down in the 2018-mid-term elections with Pelosi as House Speaker. That will inspire the stock market bear, which may already be anticipating that. However, continuing with a republican senate, will prevent Trump’s impeachment. Despite that prevention, the stock market bear will be delighted at Pelosi in charge of the House of Representatives. The good news is that Trump will be smart enough to point out that since Pelosi has been in charge, things have worsened which should lead to a clean republican sweep in the 2020-election. That should completely demolish the democratic party. With that, a year and a half of stock market bearishness should elevate buying opportunities around mid-2019, depending on the depth of the baby bear now underway.


Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.


The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.


The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 247.8% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 572.9% and the S&P500 is up 256.2% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 465.4% since October 9, 2002.


The NASDAQ was bearish by 31.1% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.


The NASDAQ was down 37.9% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.


The NASDAQ was up 43.4% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 3.9% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was `congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.


It was down 6.3% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.


In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 6.4% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.  


The NASDAQ was up 16.2% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.


The NASDAQ was down by 32.9% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.


It was up 35.6% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.


The NASDAQ was up 6.6% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.


It was down 1.8% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.


The NASDAQ was up 16.8% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  


It was up 25.6% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  


The NASDAQ was up 2.4% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.


The NASDAQ was up 2.2% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.


The NASDAQ was up 4.6% on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the obvious president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.


The NASDAQ was up 22.4% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up b            y 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.5% this year. The S&P500 is up 3.5% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 8.6% this year. The S&P600 is up 3.1% this year.  The Dow Transports is down 1.2% and Dow Utilities is flat this year.


The Dow is up 78.9% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 162.2% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is up 76.8% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.


All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 30.9%.


The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 48.5%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is above that peak by 52.1%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 48.2%.


Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.


The Dow is up 287.0% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 490.9% and the S&P500 is up 309.9% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 362.5% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive, but recent rate hikes offer some arguments against being passive.           


The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish.


Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.


Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition.


Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated several times in this report, Trump-Economics will be inflationary. It has begun. Last week increased a threatening theme with commodity prices increasing. A simplified tax code is not on any agenda and thus no longer being viewed as an offsetting thematic to the inflationary threat.


The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased another 25-basis points on week-ending Sep 30, 2018. That follows similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, and Jun 15, 2018,. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections.  Rates remain at low levels and thus not yet impeding economic growth. As stated on Oct 7, 2018, “they are becoming more aggressive, however, and increasingly likely to be too slow and low to fend off inflation.” Despite that, the annual inflation rate is being reported with only 2.8% to date this year. Oil prices are up 39.2% from this time a year ago, which has a very high correlation to inflation. There is more about oil later.


The Federal Reserve’s Quarter 2, 2017 promise of being passive on rate hikes remains as being challenged with noticeable increases in interest rates with 25-basis point jumps every three to six months since Trump’s election. The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull at just above 2.2%, despite recent rate hike aggression. It’s gallop to the north remains bit slower than the policy hikes. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. If the Fed slows future rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be unfriendly to the stock market bull.


The Euro fell into Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jun 15, 2018, while continuing resistance in deepening its Yellow Bear status. The prevailing bearish trend started the enjoyment of a shifting bullishly for the first time in nine years in early March 2018 like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of its long-term bearish trend. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.602.  


The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned to the neutral zone in late October 2017. It moved above Red (weakening) on weekending Jul 28, 2018, but again falling below Red (strengthening) on weekending Aug 31, 2018. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values exceeding $1.92CA to $1.82CA.


The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 150-161-Yen/U.S. dollar. It shifted from the zone of neutrality to strengthening in late Feb 2018 and continues residence there with some recent steadying. It again is remaining in a tight trading zone, while weakening just above Red on weekending Sep 30, 2018. It strengthens when falling below Yellow. Trade tensions remain influential on international exchanges at this time. Despite that, international currencies are remaining stable, while international stock market indices have been bearish the past few weeks but rebounding the past few weeks.


British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency at that time. It lost Red Bull status on week-ending May 11, 2018 by falling into the zone of neutrality and then returning to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 7, 2018. It continues to resist deepening its Yellow Bear status. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.29 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.87-$0.88 by Dec 31, 2020. It falling to Yellow Bear status and not yet recovering suggests its long-term bearish cycle will not be overcome on the short-term horizon. Despite the BREXIT vote, Great Britain remains mired in socialistic mumbo-jumbo and its eventual bankruptcy will be the start of eradicating the stupidity emanating from the land of yellow-toothed people, who wait too long for dental care. Socialism creates long lines, while communism creates even longer lines. Communism and socialism offer maximal queuing at every human need requiring a specialist or a product. Over 50% of the people in many countries are too stupid to figure that out. The U.S.S.R. took about three generations of maximal poverty to figure that out. Although human beings have powerful brains, most do not know how to harness it, defaulting to bicameral tendencies.


The Bitcoin toppled $16,000 on most exchanges in late 2017 in skyrocketing fashion. It has weakened since then. It lost Red Bull status in late Mar/early Apr 2018. Even though it has declined, it remains in the zone of neutrality and resisting Yellow Bear status for several weeks, while remaining between $6,000-$9,000. It has been steadying the past several weeks with a mild bearish drift, while resisting Yellow Bear status. Its stability adds merit to its worthiness as a currency.


Gold remains a Yellow Bear. It did not hold Red Bull status after regaining that status on Jan 16, 2018, dipping slightly below Red on week-ending May 11, 2018 and falling to Yellow Bear status during weekending Jul 13, 2018 and recently becoming a stronger Yellow Bear, while displaying some resistance there. Prevailing interest rates remain low, despite their recent hikes, and the corresponding weak dollar is encouraging bullish potential for gold. At some point, rising rates will strengthen the dollar, influencing gold’s bearishness. That remains as the current theme, as the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,297/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $704-$707/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.


Oil returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 2017 and continuing bullishly since then. Its rise is congruent with inflationary themes going forward, while being contrarian to the above comments about gold. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $52/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Saudi Royalty is most likely targeting $90/BBL for the time being.


The CRB Bridge Futures remains in the zone of neutrality after regaining Red Bull status on Nov 23, 2017 after succumbing to the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 10, 2017. It repelled Yellow Bear status in early Oct 2018 with a bullish bounce consistent with economic robustness. The 2020-mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020.


Mortgage rates abandoned Yellow Bear status on Nov 3, 20 16 with a sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not for those desiring home ownerships. On Nov 25, 2016, it lost that Red Bull status. Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status in early March 2018 with momentum in their bullish configurations and continuing with bullish configurations. They are now accelerating.


The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.


Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. This fund has remained flat to mildly bearish since then, enduing a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018 after falling to Yellow Bear status. It is down 17.2% since that sell signal.


Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also endured a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 9.1% since that sell signal.


Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Oct 13, 2017 and up 7.4% since then, annualizing at 7.3%.


Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, enjoyed a buy signal on Apr 27, 2018. It is down 9.9% since then. The primary reason for this fund being held at this time is rising oil prices. Set a tight stop loss with your broker, as a democratically controlled congress will be stifling to the economy and thus reduce demand for the services this fund’s underlying securities provide.


State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, enjoyed a buy signal on Apr 13, 2018. It is up 3.3% since then, annualizing at 6.4%.


Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Dec 29, 2017 and up 2.1% since then, annualizing at 2.6%.


The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Oct 11, 2018. It is up 0.2% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 9, 2018. It is up 9.3% since then, annualizing at 18.0%.


The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 5.0% since then.


Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and one new bear signal.    


The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for nine of the ten of the major indices. The existing bulls are up by an average of 42.3% since their bull signals an average of 119.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 18.4%.


The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $69.542-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.798-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.461-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.629-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.117-million. That beats buy and hold’s $749,689 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $36.411-million. That is better than buy and hold $751,005 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,730.8%, 112.4%, 182.3%, and 4,748.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.


There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.


The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals.


Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.


The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 98.9% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of course, if that happens, you would not enjoy the opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you.


Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds


Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.


Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.


The Dow is up 775.4% (annualized at 28.7%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,406-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.


Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.


The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Oct 12-Despite stock market bullishness, the S&P600-(Chart) endured a Quick-term Indicant bear signal. It was actually bearish on an otherwise bullish day. Unfortunately, small caps, such as the S&P600, are leaders for the stock market bear. It was also an old Quick-term Indicant bull with its birth date of Mar 2, 2016 moving up a solid 48.2% since that birth. Its close cousin, the S&P400-(Chart) mid-caps Quick-term Indicant bull expired this past Wednesday, while the S&P600 did not fall prey to Yellow Bear status until today. The good news for the stock market bull was contrarian VIX-(Chart) force vector reversing into bearish direction. You should also notice that the VIX did not approach its last cyclical peak during this period of bearish pestering. The stock market bull will find some alliances when VIX force falls below its pressure, which is required before its next bear signal. You will gain more insight in the Weekly Stock Market Report this weekend.


Thu-Oct 11-The stock market bull is disappointed at two new Quick-term bear signals today. The DJT-(Chart) endured its first bear Quick-term Indicant signal since Jul 8,016, when it last signaled bull. It was up 35.3% since that bull signal. The NYSE-(Chart) also fell to Yellow Bear status. The NASDAQ-(Chart) is nearing that condition. It is up 56.3% since the Quick-term Indicant signaled bull on Mar 1, 2016. As you can see, these Quick-term bulls are unusually mature. Despite that, the Quick-term Indicant only signals bear when falling below Yellow, which is occurring for the first time in nearly two and a half years. Contrarian VIX-(Chart) continues to skyrocket and not yet above its last peak on Feb 8, 2018 at $33.46. It is up by 68.6% since the Indicant’s short-term bull signal on Oct 5, 2018. The DJU-(Chart) was indeed bearish today, but did not endure a new bear signal since its vector pressure remains in bullish domains. It is the only non-contrarian major index that is retaining its Near-term bull signal. With that, there is some hope for the stock market bull to regain its footing, albeit mildly.


Wed-Oct 10-The S&P400-(Chart) endured a Quick-term bear signal today for its first signal since its previous quick-term bull signal on Mar 2, 2016. That was a long lasting Quick-term Bull. It gained nearly 40% since that bull signal. Despite today’s strong stock market bearishness, the DJU-(Chart) was down less than one-half of one percent, while the NASDAQ100-(Chart), which was down the most of the major indices, fell by a very bearish 4.4%. The Near-term Indicant was already signaling bear for the NASDAQ100 and had already been signaling avoid for its related ETF#01-QQQ-(Chart). The fact that the DJU did not endure significant bearishness offers a bit of hope that this is just more pestering by the stock market bear; albeit with a sharp and deep bite. Continued monitoring of the DJU will offer insight on the longevity of this stock market bear along the near-term cycle. The DJT-(Chart) and the S&P600-(Chart) are now threatening Yellow Bear status to join the S&P400. A new Quick-term Bear signal for the S&P600 would be its first quick-term signal since Mar 2, 2016 when it enjoyed its current bull signal. It is up 51.9% since that bull signal despite very strong bearishness the past several days. It is down 6.6% since the Near-term Indicant signaled bear on Sep 27, 2018. Small caps, such as the S&P600, very often lead bear markets, while the last to succumb to the stock market bear has been the Dow Utilities the past several years. The next few days will be interesting. If the S&P600 falls below its Quick-term bearish Yellow curve with the Dow Utilities also being bearish, do not be surprised at a ferocious stock market bear to highlight this year’s heart and soul of bearish seasonality. Partially contrarian ETF#14-TLT-(Chart) enjoyed today’s onslaught by the stock market bear. Although it was mildly bearish today, its force vector moved strongly to the north. Although it requires a lot of energy to earn a buy signal from its strongly bearish configuration, it is worthy of monitoring. Finally, ETF#21-EWZ-(Chart), Brazil, is the lone non-contrarian ETF with a near-term hold signal.


Tue-Oct 9- Non-contrarian Dow Utilities-(Chart) enjoyed a new bull signal with its vector pressure climbing into bullish domains. However, several other non-contrarian major indices are enduring near-term bear signals. The DJU is behaving again as a safety net for equity dollars. That is a non-bullish configuration when other major indices are deepening their near-term bearishness. Contrarian VIX-(Chart) continues with it bullish configuration and related behavior. ETF#21-EWZ-(Chart), Brazil, is one of the few international ETF’s with strong bullish configurations. That, coupled with ETF#03-XLE-(Chart), offers strong support for petroleum based bullishness.


Mon-Oct 8-Non-contrarian Dow Utilities-(Chart) is entering an interesting configuration with its vector pressure nearing bullish domains. The magnitude of non-contrarian S&P600-(Chart) near-term bearishness is a bit discerning.  Contrarian VIX-(Chart) is retaining its bullish configuration. Its force vector is maturing, and pressure crossed into bullish domains on Monday. There were more non-contrarian ETF sell signals offering more near-term support for the stock market bear. The quick-term cycle remains with bullish configurations.


Please review the below sections for more insight.


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.


Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.


Number of Near-term Bulls: 2 of 12; they are the DJU-(Chart) and VIX-(Chart)

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 0.7-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 20.6%; Annualized Performance: 1,499.1% primarily due to the VIX’s strong bullishness since its Near-term Bull signal on Oct 5, 2018.


Number of Near-term Bears: 10 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 0.8-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -3.4%

Near-term Performance Advantage: Oct 5, 2018-Stock Market Bear


Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 1 of 12.

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 11 of 12 

Near-term Position Advantage: Oct 4, 2018-Near-term Stock Market Bear.


Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and one new bear.


Number of Quick-term Bulls: 8 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 102.8-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 42.7%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 21.6%


Number of Quick-term Bears: 3 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term: Bears: 0.2-weeks-avg.     

Quick-term Bear Performance: 0.1%


Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12 

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 4 of 12


Quick-term Configured Advantage: Oct 11, 2016-Quick-term Stock Market Bear-first time since late 2016, Yellow Bear population exceeds Red Bulls.


Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 1 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 1 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 1 of 11 

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction:  2 of 11                                   

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 1 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bear, effective Oct 10, 2018.


Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-Oct 12, 2018-Both volume indicators are moving in a high interest direction with the stock market bear’s attack. That is supportive of the stock market bear. Friday’s volume was less than bearish related volume this week. With that, do not be surprised at more short-term bearishness. The argument against that is the NASDAQ falling below the lower Trump Bull band line. It will be interesting to see if the stock market bull finds enough revenge inspiration to climb above that band line. Trump is doing his part to fend off the stock market bear. He is among a few presidents in recent history who understands compound interest and the details of how it is computed.


Thu-Oct 11, 2018-Volume remains high on continuing bearish aggression, but not near that of the 2008 stock market bear. This bear is not acting on economic calamity, but it could be reading a disappointing election and/or inflationary pressures.


Wed-Oct 10, 2018-Volume was up significantly on strong stock market bearishness. Continuing selling on high volume suggests the stock market bear’s tenacity is significant at this point.


Tue-Oct 9, 2018-Average volume on flat stock market behavior does not encourage the stock market bull or bear.


Mon-Oct 8, 2018-Mediocre volume on flat stock market performance is not supportive of anything.


Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.


The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 4-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 3.6% since their buy signals an average of 0.6-weeks ago, annualizing at 294.1%. Contrarians are the only ones being held. 


The NTI is avoiding 28-ETFs. They are down by an average of 4.3% since their sell signals 3.2-weeks ago.


Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 2

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1


Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1


Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 25


Near-term Advantage: Oct 4, 2018-Near-term stock market bear.


ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and two sell signals.


The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 13-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 34.5% since their buy signals an average of 84.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 21.3%.


The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 17-ETFs. They are down by an average of 6.9% since their sell signals an average of 11.9-weeks ago.


Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2


Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1


Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1          

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 13  


Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term stock market bear, effective Oct 10, 2018.


Reverse Tangential Projections       

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.


Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.


Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts


Indicant Conclusion

As stated last week, “an absence of commonsense by your congressional representatives and increasing obviations of evolving a politburo form of government depressed the stock market bull the past two weeks. Although Judge Kavanaugh was confirmed to the Supreme Court, which is typically a low-profile event, the loudness of Bolshevik-Orangutan screamers continues unsettling the markets.” The screaming and asset destructions, along with louder and louder politburo wannabes is simply too difficult for the stock market bull to take. It will quickly abandon a society that does not arrest and severely prosecute those that destroy assets. Long-term Return on Investment is not calculable when at any time assets can be destroyed.


Short-term bullish unanimity was lost with two week ago with congressional shenanigans. The more stable Mid-term Indicant no longer remains with bullish unanimity. With that, the stock market bull no longer remains dominant. Again, your political elite are resolute in destroying economic health for one and only one reason. They want power.


Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.


Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.


Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.


Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.



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Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.


The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.


For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.


Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.


For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.


If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.


Happy Investing,





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