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Sep 15, 2019 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 09, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

                                                          

Stock Market Bull Pause Nearing End

Democratic presidential debates, if taken seriously by the investment community, would cause the stock market to fall by a significant amount. If they implemented their Orangutan sounding orations, the stock market would fall to zero and their eventual asset confiscations would yield negative capitalization.

 

Despite those debates and the dumbest presidential candidates ever observed by yours truly, force vectors crossed into bullish domains this past week along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. Although vector pressure remains in bearish domains, they are now cycling toward bullish domains. As long as they are in bearish domains, the stock market bull cannot relax. Once they cross into bullish domains, the stock market bear will no longer be able to pester.

 

All public office holders, including all in the military, take the oath to uphold the U.S. Constitution. Bozo (Fake name Beto) O’Rourke says he will take your guns. How could he execute that after taking the oath? Even if elected, how could the military execute any orders to do that? Any executive order directing confiscation should be countered with his arrest and being charged with treason.

 

If the charges of treason fail and the actual confiscation were to transpire, it does not take much imagination that more lives would be lost than saved. The types of folks with significant firepower, although law-abiding, would interpret the confiscation as lawlessness. With that, lawlessness, overall, would prevail. Bullets will fly on that. It is unlikely the stock market bull would coexist with such a high level of social unrest.

 

It will be difficult for the stock market bull to dominate if anyone of those lunatics running on the democratic ticket lead in the polls against Trump. As you recall, the stock market bull started languishing in 2014 through most of 2015 will Hillary Clinton leading in the polls. Clicking this sentence, notice where the stock market was in late 2014 and where it was on the election of 2016. The market was flat during that period. That is what is referred to as a languishing stock market bull.

 

It is possible for two enemies to each have character. People with character admire the competence of their competitor, while those without character (narcissists) hate their competitor despite the worthiness of that competitor. Now, take another look at the chart by clicking this sentence. Notice Trump’s bull leg clips upward at over 45-degrees in the presidential post-election year of 2017. The presidential post-election year is typically bearish. As you can see, by clicking this sentence, the presidential post-election year has a long history of overall stock market bearishness. Trump’s presidency contradicts that long-term history of stock market bearishness in the presidential post-election year.

 

That 2017 stock market bull made a whole lot of people richer. Rather than admiring that optimism and increasing wealth, democrats have been trying to “impeach” the apparent causation of that stock market bull. Their desire to gain power has much higher priority than your accumulations of wealth and related happiness. On the contrary, your happiness and wealth accumulations are a direct confrontation to any communistic thinking person. They simply think they are superior, and you should be their servant. Well, if a handful of people somehow take complete and absolute power over 300-million or so, the stock market goes to zero and then capitalization goes to sub-zero. History proves that, but each generation’s DNA does not bring along those historical errors of humanity. In other words, cycles of human lunacy tend to repeat.

 

Do not despair. Lunatics keep on quoting the polls and they were wrong in 2015 and 2016, as they regularly proclaimed Hillary Clinton’s victory. Smart money may ignore the polls and when that happens the stock market bull rules over the stock market bear. The only confrontation to that optimism is bearishly positioned vector pressure. However, they are now moving in a bullish direction.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 8-Red Bulls, 2-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: Red Bull population increased by one from last week, gaining yet more dominance over the non-Red Bulls. The eight Red Bulls are above Red by an average of 5.9%. The stock market bear cannot dominate with prevailing Red Bulls.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls- Click for Explanation2): 7-Blue Bulla, 3-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: Blue Bulls increased by three after only one four weeks ago. The stock market bull continues exerting its dominance. The ten major indices are above the blue curve by an average of 0.8%, while the seven Blue Bulls are above Blue by an average of 1.3%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: Fortunately, none of the major indices are Yellow Bears. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 26.2% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance and the economy is not being threatened. The Indicant will signal bear, if necessary, well before Yellow Bear infestations. Tolerating a 26.2% drop is unacceptable.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: The absence of Green Bears reduces stock market bear potential. All ten major indices are above Green by an average of 9.9% percent, which is healthy for the stock market bull. The Mid-term Indicant signals bear when the major indices fall below green when not in Red Bull status and with a few other exceptions.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 9-Reds Higher than Green; 1-Greens Higher Than Red

              Comment: The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) have not enjoyed Green crossing above Red in the current bull cycle. If that remains absent, the stock market bear has a formidable enemy. The stock market is considered over-bought when green crosses above red, which is not the current configuration. Overall, Red is above Green by a healthy average of 5.2%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 9-bullish domains, 1-bearish domains

              Comment: Eight other major indices crossed into bullish domains this past week, offering the stock market bull a strong ally.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 10-above pressure, 0-below pressure

              Comment: Eight other major indices crossed above pressure this past week, offering the stock market bull yet another ally.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 1-bullish domains, 9-bearish domains

              Comment: Despite strong stock market bullishness the past three weeks, vector pressure remains with significant alliances to the stock market bear. Despite all the other configured improvements favoring the stock market bull, this remains a significant obstacle to the stock market bull’s desired relaxed domination.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 9-bullishly directed, 1-bearishly directed

              Comment: The DJU’s-(Chart) force vector shifted back into a bearish direction last week. Its recent contrarian behavior suggests stock market bullishness will continue without the Dow Utility’s participation.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 10-bullishly directed, 0-bearishly directed

            Comment: Bullish unanimity is now directed at eliminating the bearishly positioned vector pressure.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Bearishly positioned vector pressure remains threatening to the stock market bull, but that bearish support is now being challenged by bullishly directed vector pressure.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. Of course, the website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated six-buy signals and no-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 236 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 238.6% that annualizes to 48.5%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 236-stocks and funds for an average of 256.0-weeks. There have been 139-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 79-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 27.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 100.7-weeks ago. There have been 73-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on Sep 14, 2018 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 252-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 233.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 229.1% (annualized at 51.0%). There were 69-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 18.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 81.0-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2018. There had been 64-buy signals and 82-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2018.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 261-stocks on Sep 15, 2017. They were up 186.8% since their buy signals an average of 225.5-weeks earlier, annualizing at 43.1%. There were 59-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 96.8-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 58-buy signals and 48-sell signals through this weekend in 2017.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 278-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Sep 16, 2016. They were up by an average of 140.4%, annualizing at 38.1%, since their respective buy signals an average of 191.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 59-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 23.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 90.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2016. There had been 114-year-to-date buy signals and 81-sell signals through this weekend in 2016.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 240-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Sep 11, 2015. They were up by an average of 161.6%, annualizing at 36.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 231.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 96-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 16.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 54.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There had been a total of 25-buy signals and 84-sell signals through this weekend in 2015.

 

There were 317-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Sep 12, 2014 since their buy signals an average of 172.7-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 126.7% (annualized at 24.9%). There were 22-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 24.9% from their respective sell signals an average of 82.4-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2014. There had been 22-buy signals and 22-sell signals through this weekend in 2014.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

If the stock market bear has indeed hibernated, the relatively large numbers of avoided stocks and funds will provide more opportunities for buying since 2009, where nearly all stocks and funds were avoided early that year. Although there are not as many avoided stocks and funds being avoided as in early 2009, there are still plenty of opportunities. Force vectors started increasing a few weeks ago, offering potential for new buy signals. There were 32-buy signals on weekending Jun 28, 2019 and 12-more on weekending Jul 6, 2019. There have been 139-buy signals this calendar year against 73-sell signals. These opportunities continue manifestation. There will be more into the future once the pausing stock market bull re-exerts its influence.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 273.6% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 633.9% and the S&P500 is up 287.2% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 471.6% since October 9, 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was down by 31.4% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001, which was the year of 911.

 

The NASDAQ was down 33.8% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was up 38.9% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 4.6% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

 

It was down 0.2% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.

           

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 1.0% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.

 

The NASDAQ was up 7.7% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.

 

The NASDAQ was down by 14.7% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.

                                   

It was up 32.0% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

           

The NASDAQ was up 0.7% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.

 

It was down 4.6% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 1.8%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.

           

The NASDAQ was up 21.1% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  

 

It was up 23.3% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-t erm elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.   

           

The NASDAQ was up 9.4% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.

.                                                                               

The NASDAQ was up 1.8% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939. Trade wars were maximal in 1939.

           

The NASDAQ was up 3.0% on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the “obvious” president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.

 

The NASDAQ was up 20.0% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up by 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness and especially so with rising interest rates.

 

The NASDAQ was up 16.1% on this weekend in the 2018-presidential mid-term election year. The Blue Wave was reported as coming most of that year. With that “communistic” threat, the stock market bull was absent most of the year with a bearish conclusion. The NASDAQ closed down by 3.9%, while the S&P500 was down 6.2% and the Dow down 5.6% for 2018.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 16.7% this year. The S&P500 is up 20.0% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 23.2% this year. The S&P600 is up 15.5% this year.  The Dow Transports is up 17.9% and Dow Utilities is up 18.8% this year. The S&P400 is up 18.9% this year.

 

The Dow is up 92.2% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 186.0% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is up 92.1% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.

 

All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 53.2%.

 

The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 62.0%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is above that peak by 67.8%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 59.8%. Those paltry gains have not kept up with inflation. With that consideration they are still down since their 2000-peaks.

 

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

 

The Dow is up 315.8% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 544.5% and the S&P500 is up 344.5% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 439.6% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases.

 

The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish, but democrats are about to take over the U.S. House of Representatives and the last time that happened in 2007 the stock market peaked ahead of its 2008-bearish behavior.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition. Recent promotions of communism, if successful, will result in zero for all capital stocks.

 

Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics will be inflationary. Despite that eventuality, inflation remains tame for the time being. The annual inflation rate is being reported at only 1.7% to date this year. Oil prices are down 29.8% from this time a year ago, which has a very high correlation to inflation. There is more about oil later.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate decreased by 25-basis points on weekending Aug 2, 2019, offsetting the Dec 21, 2018 increase of the exact same amount. That places these positions exactly where they were after the Sep 30, 2018 rate changes. The Aug 2, 2019 decrease is followed by increases on Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018, Sep 30, 2018, and Dec 21, 2018. The Fed remains sensitive to political pressure, favoring the stock market bull. Inflation is threatening again and deflation is not. That may delay the prevailing stock market bull pause.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill fell to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 19, 2019. That offers bullish potential for the stock market. Although the stock market may not be dynamically bullish, the probability of stock market bearishness is miniscule with falling rates in the face of a healthy economy. As you have seen, however, the stock market bull was disappointed at the Aug 2, 2019 twenty-five-basis points reduction. It wanted more. Since then, the stock market bear has expressed its enjoyment followed by bearish incursions due, in part, to trade tensions with China.

                                                                                

The Euro fell into Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jun 15, 2018 and continues sticking to bearish Yellow with a steady bearish drift. Gluing to Yellow for such a long period suggests stability, which should be viewed as favorable for the Euro, despite its continuing value erosion. The prevailing bearish trend started after the enjoyment of shifting bullishly for the first time in nine years in early March 2018 like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of its long-term bearish trend. Again, that is occurring with both Red and Yellow in a bearish slope. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.16 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.80 to $0.83.

 

The Canadian dollar climbed to just above Yellow (weakening) on weekending Aug 23, 2019 and resting there. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.31CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.68CA to $1.73CA.        

 

The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast remains at 111-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 138-147-Yen/U.S. dollar. Its flatness the past three years is unusual. That helps international stabilization, which is always welcome by the stock market bull. It also strengthened with the mild rate reduction by the U.S. Fed on weekending Aug 2, 2019.

 

British Pound’s 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.33 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $1.00-$1.04 by Dec 31, 2020. Since its mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it has drifted, bearishly. It is a Yellow Bear.

 

As stated for several weeks, international currencies, relative to the U.S. dollar, remain relatively stable, despite tariff threats being bantered. Most foreign currencies strengthened a bit against the U.S. dollar since the Aug 1, 2019 Fed hike, but has since stabilized.

 

The Bitcoin returned to Red Bull status on weekend May 17, 2019 for the first time since early 2018. It has not yet expressed discomfort in doing so by maintaining its prevailing Red Bull position.

                       

Gold climbed sharply above Red on weekending Jun 21, 2019 from Iranian conflicts. It has been increasing bullishness the past few weeks with the less than desired Fed Funds rate reduction, spawning inflationary concerns. Trade tensions add to gold’s appeal. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,302/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $899-$907/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil remains in the zone of neutrality (between Red and Yellow). The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $5 to $8. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $55/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Supply capacity, exceeding demand, is the prevailing price depressant.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures escaped Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 13, 2019 after falling into Yellow Bear status on Nov 23, 2018. The 2020-mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting 73-74 by 2020. Its current configuration offers no support for inflation. It has been uncharacteristically flat for several years, but finally, the aggressive polynomials are forecasting more realistic values.

 

Mortgage rates fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  They remain as Yellow Bears and deepening into a dynamic Yellow Bear. This is a great time to finance real estate.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.          

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all ten major indices. They are up an average of 8.4% since their respective bull signals an average of 26.6-weeks ago, annualizing at 16.3%. 

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $71.829-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $4.080-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.695-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.771-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.598-million. That beats buy and hold’s $817,671 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $36.950-million. That is better than buy and hold $774,226 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,660.4%, 108.6%, 209.5%, and 4,672.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a week or two for the statistics to settle.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.1% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of course, if that happens, you would not be allow to benefit that opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you. The politburo will confiscate.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 840.3% (annualized at 30.1%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,454-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Sep 13-Fri-The stock market bull continues increasing its dominance with a mild increase in volume’s support. Partially contrarian TLT-(Chart) endured a near-term sell signal adding some pizzazz to the stock market’s renewed bullishness. Democratic loss in the special N.C. election added alliance support to this week’s bullishness.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 2.1-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 3.4%; Annualized Performance: 85.1%

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 1 of 12 (contrarian VIX)

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 2.0-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -27.1%

Near-term Performance Advantage: Aug 30, 2019-Stock Market Bull

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue             Bulls: 11 of 12 

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 1 of 12 

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Aug 30, 2019-Stock Market Bull

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 21.8-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 9.6%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 23.0%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 2.0-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -27.1%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 11 of 12       

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Sep 06, 2019-Quick-term Advantage to Bull

                       

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 2 of 11                                           

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 10 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull-effective Aug 30, 2019

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Volume was about the same as recent weeks, mildly above average, with strong stock market bullishness.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and one sell signal.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 4.6% since their buy signals an average of 4.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 54.2%.

 

The NTI is avoiding four-ETFs. They are down by an average of 4.3% since their sell signals an average of 4.4-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 3

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 25

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bull Aug 30, 2019

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated six buy signals and no sell signals.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 20-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 10.5% since their buy signals an average of 20.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 26.7%.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding six ETFs. They are down by an average of 5.0% since their sell signals an average of 6.6-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 23

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull Sep 13, 2019

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:    

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past nine weeks, “the stock market bull could spend a few weeks resting, but that will not deter the stock market bull’s dominance.” Force vectors continued moving into a bullish direction for the past three weeks. As stated two weeks ago, “[increasing force] offers a solid argument against continuing pestering by the stock market bear.” Force crossed above pressure last week and pressure reversed to a bullish direction. Pressure, however, remains in bearish domains, retaining a threat to the stock market bull.

 

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

09/15/2019

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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